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Artigos de revistas sobre o tema "Climates changes"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 9 de novembro de 2024

Última modificação: 31 de julho de 2025

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1

Kwon, Minsung, and Jang Hyun Sung. "Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections." Water 11, no. 2 (2019): 312. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11020312.

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The standardized precipitation index (SPI)—a meteorological drought index—uses various reference precipitation periods. Generally, drought projections using future climate change scenarios compare reference SPIs between baseline and future climates. Here, future drought was projected based on reference precipitation under the baseline climate to quantitatively compare changes in the frequency and severity of future drought. High-resolution climate change scenarios were produced using HadGEM2-AO General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios for Korean weather stations. Baseline and future 3-month c

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Lelono, Eko Budi, and Robert J. Morley. "Oligocene Climate Changes of Java." Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas 34, no. 3 (2022): 169–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.29017/scog.34.3.803.

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The study of palynology performed on the Oligocene marine sediment of the East Java Sea provides excellent recovery which allows the construction of palynological succession which applies regionally (Lelono et. al., 2011). In fact, this succession is characterized by assemblages that suggest climatic changes. These assemblages are divided into two major groups including mangrove and hinterland. The hinterland pollen group shows the most interesting succession, with elements on the one hand suggesting everwet climates (Dacrydium and Casuarina), and seasonal elements on the other (Gramineae, Sch

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Zajch, Andrew, William A. Gough, and Giacomo Chiesa. "Earth–Air Heat Exchanger Geo-Climatic Suitability for Projected Climate Change Scenarios in the Americas." Sustainability 12, no. 24 (2020): 10613. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su122410613.

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Earth–air heat exchangers (EAHE) provide heating and cooling that is intrinsically tied to the climate of the surrounding environment. A climate-based approach was applied to 273 sites for both historical and projected climate conditions, with the latter being defined by three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from the CMIP5 collection of Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Changes to heating and cooling degree hours as well as heating and cooling capacity were estimated and used to classify geo-climatic suitability. The analysis revealed cooler climates will retain their ab

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Chiesa, Giacomo. "Climatic potential maps of ventilative cooling techniques in Italian climates including resilience to climate changes." IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering 609 (October 23, 2019): 032039. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/609/3/032039.

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Maes, Patrick W., Amy S. Floyd, Brendon M. Mott, and Kirk E. Anderson. "Overwintering Honey Bee Colonies: Effect of Worker Age and Climate on the Hindgut Microbiota." Insects 12, no. 3 (2021): 224. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects12030224.

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Honey bee overwintering health is essential to meet the demands of spring pollination. Managed honey bee colonies are overwintered in a variety of climates, and increasing rates of winter colony loss have prompted investigations into overwintering management, including indoor climate controlled overwintering. Central to colony health, the worker hindgut gut microbiota has been largely ignored in this context. We sequenced the hindgut microbiota of overwintering workers from both a warm southern climate and controlled indoor cold climate. Congruently, we sampled a cohort of known chronological

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Dubois, Emmanuel, Marie Larocque, Sylvain Gagné, and Marco Braun. "Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates: Controlling Processes and Thresholds." Climate 10, no. 1 (2022): 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli10010006.

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Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (C

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Seager, Richard, Timothy J. Osborn, Yochanan Kushnir, Isla R. Simpson, Jennifer Nakamura, and Haibo Liu. "Climate Variability and Change of Mediterranean-Type Climates." Journal of Climate 32, no. 10 (2019): 2887–915. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0472.1.

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Abstract Mediterranean-type climates are defined by temperate, wet winters, and hot or warm dry summers and exist at the western edges of five continents in locations determined by the geography of winter storm tracks and summer subtropical anticyclones. The climatology, variability, and long-term changes in winter precipitation in Mediterranean-type climates, and the mechanisms for model-projected near-term future change, are analyzed. Despite commonalities in terms of location in the context of planetary-scale dynamics, the causes of variability are distinct across the regions. Internal atmo

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Plecha, Sandra, Carina L. Lopes, Nicolas Bruneau, et al. "INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE REGIME IN COASTAL SEDIMENT BUDGET: PRESENT AND FUTURE SCENARIOS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 33 (2012): 85. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.sediment.85.

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The wave regime has a strong influence on the sediment transport in coastal systems. Modifications in wave regime induced by climate changes can influence the sediment dynamics of those coastal systems. To access wave regime changes it is crucial to analyse the future modifications in the wave height, period and direction. This work aims to analyse the influence of a future wave regime in the sediment budget of a coastal lagoon inlet and at the nearshore adjacent coast. To achieve this goal a morphodynamic modelling system was used, forced by present and future waves, corresponding to a typica

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Levine, Xavier J., and Tapio Schneider. "Response of the Hadley Circulation to Climate Change in an Aquaplanet GCM Coupled to a Simple Representation of Ocean Heat Transport." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 68, no. 4 (2011): 769–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jas3553.1.

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Abstract It is unclear how the width and strength of the Hadley circulation are controlled and how they respond to climate changes. Simulations of global warming scenarios with comprehensive climate models suggest the Hadley circulation may widen and weaken as the climate warms. But these changes are not quantitatively consistent among models, and how they come about is not understood. Here, a wide range of climates is simulated with an idealized moist general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a simple representation of ocean heat transport, in order to place past and possible future changes

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Schneider, Tapio, Tobias Bischoff, and Hanna Płotka. "Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability." Journal of Climate 28, no. 6 (2015): 2312–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00632.1.

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Abstract This paper examines the physical processes controlling how synoptic midlatitude temperature variability near the surface changes with climate. Because synoptic temperature variability is primarily generated by advection, it can be related to mean potential temperature gradients and mixing lengths near the surface. Scaling arguments show that the reduction of meridional potential temperature gradients that accompanies polar amplification of global warming leads to a reduction of the synoptic temperature variance near the surface. This is confirmed in simulations of a wide range of clim

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Merlis, Timothy M., and Tapio Schneider. "Changes in Zonal Surface Temperature Gradients and Walker Circulations in a Wide Range of Climates." Journal of Climate 24, no. 17 (2011): 4757–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4042.1.

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Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The asymmetry in the tropical climate is generated by an imposed ocean energy flux, which does not vary with climate. The range of climates is simulated by modifying the optical thickness of an idealized longwave absorber (representing greenhouse gases). The zonal surface temperature gradient in low latitudes generally decreases as the climate warms in

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Byrne, Michael P., and Tapio Schneider. "Energetic Constraints on the Width of the Intertropical Convergence Zone." Journal of Climate 29, no. 13 (2016): 4709–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0767.1.

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Abstract The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) has been the focus of considerable research in recent years, with much of this work concerned with how the latitude of maximum tropical precipitation responds to natural climate variability and to radiative forcing. The width of the ITCZ, however, has received little attention despite its importance for regional climate and for understanding the general circulation of the atmosphere. This paper investigates the ITCZ width in simulations with an idealized general circulation model over a wide range of climates. The ITCZ, defined as the tropical

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Rehfeld, Kira, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley. "Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future." Earth System Dynamics 11, no. 2 (2020): 447–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020.

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Abstract. It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios, yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. This study explores changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), including time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, and idealized experiments (1 % CO2 and abrupt4×CO2). These states encompass

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Smith, H. J. "Climates conspire together to make big changes." Science 345, no. 6195 (2014): 413–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.345.6195.413-o.

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Haas, Olivia, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison. "The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate." Biogeosciences 20, no. 18 (2023): 3981–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023.

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Abstract. Climate and fuel availability jointly control the incidence of wildfires. The effects of atmospheric CO2 on plant growth influence fuel availability independently of climate, but the relative importance of each in driving large-scale changes in wildfire regimes cannot easily be quantified from observations alone. Here, we use previously developed empirical models to simulate the global spatial pattern of burnt area, fire size, and fire intensity for modern and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼ 21 000 ka) conditions using both realistic changes in climate and CO2 and sensitivity experiment

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Kindt, Roeland. "AlleleShift: an R package to predict and visualize population-level changes in allele frequencies in response to climate change." PeerJ 9 (June 15, 2021): e11534. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.11534.

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Background At any particular location, frequencies of alleles that are associated with adaptive traits are expected to change in future climates through local adaption and migration, including assisted migration (human-implemented when climate change is more rapid than natural migration rates). Making the assumption that the baseline frequencies of alleles across environmental gradients can act as a predictor of patterns in changed climates (typically future but possibly paleo-climates), a methodology is provided by AlleleShift of predicting changes in allele frequencies at the population leve

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Davis, Nicholas A., Dian J. Seidel, Thomas Birner, Sean M. Davis, and Simone Tilmes. "Changes in the width of the tropical belt due to simple radiative forcing changes in the GeoMIP simulations." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, no. 15 (2016): 10083–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10083-2016.

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Abstract. Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of Earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate f

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Levine, Xavier J., and William R. Boos. "A Mechanism for the Response of the Zonally Asymmetric Subtropical Hydrologic Cycle to Global Warming." Journal of Climate 29, no. 21 (2016): 7851–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0826.1.

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Abstract Time-mean, zonally asymmetric circulations (hereafter referred to as stationary circulations) maintain intense hydrologic contrasts in Earth’s subtropics in the present climate, especially between monsoon regions and deserts during local summer. Such zonal contrasts in hydrology generally increase in comprehensive GCM simulations of a warming climate, yet a full understanding of stationary circulations and their contribution to the hydrologic cycle in present and future climates is lacking. This study uses an idealized moist GCM to investigate the response of subtropical stationary ci

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Carey, Cynthia. "The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 364, no. 1534 (2009): 3321–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0182.

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Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and loca

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RENTON, MICHAEL, NANCY SHACKELFORD, and RACHEL J. STANDISH. "How will climate variability interact with long-term climate change to affect the persistence of plant species in fragmented landscapes?" Environmental Conservation 41, no. 2 (2013): 110–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892913000490.

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SUMMARYAs climates change, some plant species will need to migrate across landscapes fragmented by unsuitable environments and human activities to colonize new areas with suitable climates as previously habited areas become uninhabitable. Previous modelling of plant's migration potential has generally assumed that climate changes at a constant rate, but this ignores many potentially important aspects of real climate variability. In this study, a spatially explicit simulation model was used to investigate how interannual climate variability, the occurrence of extreme events and step changes in

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Doering, C., F. Carini, M. Sato, et al. "Updated soil to fruit concentration ratios for radiocaesium compiled under the IAEA MODARIA II Programme." Journal of Radiological Protection 42, no. 2 (2022): 020511. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1361-6498/ac6046.

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Abstract Under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA II) Programme, Working Group 4 activities included collating radionuclide transfer data from Japan following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and separately collating concentration ratio (CR) data for root uptake of radionuclides by crops grown in tropical and arid climates. In this paper, the newly compiled radiocaesium CR data for fruit from Japan, tropical and arid climates have been combined with the data originally compiled for the IAEA Technical R

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Harrison, Susan, Marko J. Spasojevic, and Daijiang Li. "Climate and plant community diversity in space and time." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 9 (2020): 4464–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921724117.

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Climate strongly shapes plant diversity over large spatial scales, with relatively warm and wet (benign, productive) regions supporting greater numbers of species. Unresolved aspects of this relationship include what causes it, whether it permeates to community diversity at smaller spatial scales, whether it is accompanied by patterns in functional and phylogenetic diversity as some hypotheses predict, and whether it is paralleled by climate-driven changes in diversity over time. Here, studies of Californian plants are reviewed and new analyses are conducted to synthesize climate–diversity rel

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Yanagihara, Hayata, So Kazama, Tsuyoshi Tada, and Yoshiya Touge. "Estimation of the effect of future changes in precipitation in Japan on pluvial flood damage and the damage reduction effect of mitigation/adaptation measures." PLOS Climate 1, no. 7 (2022): e0000039. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000039.

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This study estimated the effect of changes in the amount of precipitation associated with climate change on pluvial flood damage and the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation measures throughout Japan. First, the cost of damage caused by pluvial flooding was calculated based on extreme rainfall, assuming a situation in which river levels are high, and rainwater does not drain into the rivers. Additionally, extreme rainfall in future climates was estimated from the output values of five general circulation models. Then, using these figures for extreme rainfall, the cost of pluvial flood da

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Parfenova, Elena I., Elena V. Bazhina, Sergei R. Kuzmin, et al. "Potential Changes in Distribution of Major Conifers and Their Seed Mass across Siberia by the Mid-Twenty-First Century in a Warming Climate." Forests 15, no. 10 (2024): 1691. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f15101691.

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Research highlights: At the turn of the 21st century, there were more forest territories found disturbed by both natural processes (climate change, wildfires, insect outbreaks, permafrost thawing, etc.) and anthropogenic interferences (air pollution, clearcuts, etc.). Seed collecting, then growing seedlings in forest nurseries, and then planting seedlings over lost forest areas are the forestry measures needed to restore the forest after disturbances. Goals were to construct bioclimatic models of ranges and seed mass of major Siberian conifers (Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour), Siberian

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McGee, David. "Glacial–Interglacial Precipitation Changes." Annual Review of Marine Science 12, no. 1 (2020): 525–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010859.

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Glacial–interglacial cycles have constituted a primary mode of climate variability over the last 2.6 million years of Earth's history. While glacial periods cannot be seen simply as a reverse analogue of future warming, they offer an opportunity to test our understanding of the response of precipitation patterns to a much wider range of conditions than we have been able to directly observe. This review explores key features of precipitation patterns associated with glacial climates, which include drying in large regions of the tropics and wetter conditions in substantial parts of the subtropic

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Kjelgren, Roger, Yongyut Trisurat, Ladawan Puangchit, Nestor Baguinon, and Puay Tan Yok. "Tropical Street Trees and Climate Uncertainty in Southeast Asia." HortScience 46, no. 2 (2011): 167–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.46.2.167.

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Urban trees are a critical quality of life element in rapidly growing cities in tropical climates. Tropical trees are found in a wide variety of habitats governed largely by the presence and duration of monsoonal dry periods. Tropical cities can serve as a proxy for climate change impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), urban heat island, and drought-prone root zones on successful urban trees. Understanding the native habitats of species successful as tropical urban trees can yield insights into the potential climate impact on those habitats. Species from equatorial and montane wet forests w

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Zareiee, A. R. "Evaluation of changes in different climates of Iran, using De Martonne index and Mann–Kendall trend test." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2, no. 3 (2014): 2245–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2245-2014.

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Abstract. In this paper, according to the data of 40 stations in Iran during 1967–2005, changes in different climates of Iran evaluated. The De Martonne index and Mann–Kendall trend test are indexes that by uses the precipitation and temperature provide the evaluate possibility of the climate condition and pattern of climate changes. The objective of this study is to evaluation of changes in different climates in Iran. The results of this research showed that, The surface percent of Iran in the hyper arid, semi arid, humid and hyper humid type 1 climate categories have had a ascending trend, b

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McCormick, Michael. "Climates of History, Histories of Climate: From History to Archaeoscience." Journal of Interdisciplinary History 50, no. 1 (2019): 3–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/jinh_a_01374.

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The new scientific climate history is about more than just the history of climate. It is developing in a new climate of history; it forms one of several leading edges in archaeoscience, the broader transdisciplinary convergence that brings the power of science to bear on the human past. Along with the emergence of archaeogenetics, biomolecular archaeology, and digital humanities—such as geographical information systems (gis) and computational philology (quantitative studies of textual authorship)—climate history is in the process of achieving the long-imagined re-unification of the sciences an

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Huang, Duan, Yue He, Shilin Zou, Yuejun Song, and Hong Chi. "Variation Patterns and Climate-Influencing Factors Affecting Maximum Light Use Efficiency in Terrestrial Ecosystem Vegetation." Forests 16, no. 3 (2025): 528. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16030528.

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Accurately understanding the changes in global light-response parameters (i.e., maximum light use efficiency, LUEmax) is essential for improving the simulation of terrestrial ecosystem’s photosynthetic carbon cycling under climate change, but a comprehensive understanding and assessments are still lacking. In this study, LUEmax was quantified using data from 23 global flux stations, and the change patterns in LUEmax across various vegetation types and climate zones were analyzed. The extent of significant increases or decreases in LUEmax during different phenological stages of vegetation growt

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Zhamangara, Aizhan, Shahizada Akmagambet, Saida Nigmatova, et al. "The Early Miocene Paleoclimate of Erzhilansay: Interpretation of Climatic Parameters Using Modern Methods." Sustainability 17, no. 1 (2024): 143. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17010143.

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Studying paleoclimatic conditions across geological epochs is essential for understanding climate evolution and its influence on Earth’s biosphere. Leaf macrofossils serve as a crucial data source for reconstructing ancient climates due to their sensitivity to environmental changes. Advanced analytical methods, such as the Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP) and the coexistence approach (CA), enable precise assessment of past climatic parameters using fossilized leaf remains. The Erzhilansay locality, dated to the early Miocene, represents a remarkable site with exceptionally pr

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Kazemzadeh, Majid, Hossein Hashemi, Sadegh Jamali, Cintia B. Uvo, Ronny Berndtsson, and George J. Huffman. "Detecting the Greatest Changes in Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Observations." Remote Sensing 14, no. 21 (2022): 5433. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14215433.

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In recent years, the analysis of abrupt and non-abrupt changes in precipitation has received much attention due to the importance of climate change-related issues (e.g., extreme climate events). In this study, we used a novel segmentation algorithm, DBEST (Detecting Breakpoints and Estimating Segments in Trend), to analyze the greatest changes in precipitation using a monthly pixel-based satellite precipitation dataset (TRMM 3B43) at three different scales: (i) global, (ii) continental, and (iii) climate zone, during the 1998–2019 period. We found significant breakpoints, 14.1%, both in the fo

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Betts, Richard, Michael Sanderson, and Stephanie Woodward. "Effects of large-scale Amazon forest degradation on climate and air quality through fluxes of carbon dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust and isoprene." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363, no. 1498 (2008): 1873–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0027.

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Loss of large areas of Amazonian forest, through either direct human impact or climate change, could exert a number of influences on the regional and global climates. In the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled climate–carbon cycle model, a severe drying of this region initiates forest loss that exerts a number of feedbacks on global and regional climates, which magnify the drying and the forest degradation. This paper provides an overview of the multiple feedback process in the Hadley Centre model and discusses the implications of the results for the case of direct human-induced deforestation. It

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Manzano-Solís, Luis Ricardo, Miguel A. Gómez-Albores, Carlos Díaz-Delgado, et al. "Identification of Variations in the Climatic Conditions of the Lerma-Chapala-Santiago Watershed by Comparative Analysis of Time Series." Advances in Meteorology 2018 (2018): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/1098942.

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The current study presents a method for automating the Köppen–Garcia climate classification using a GIS module. This method was then applied in a case study of the Lerma-Chapala-Santiago watershed to compare time series data on climate from 1960 to 1989, 1981 to 2010, and 1960 to 2010. The kappa statistic indicated that the climate classifications of the generated model had a perfect degree of agreement with those of a prior nonautomated study. The climate data from the period 1960 to 2010 were used to create a climate map for the watershed. Overall, the dominant climates were dry, semiarid, t

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Mutz, Sebastian G., and Todd A. Ehlers. "Detection and explanation of spatiotemporal patterns in Late Cenozoic palaeoclimate change relevant to Earth surface processes." Earth Surface Dynamics 7, no. 3 (2019): 663–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-663-2019.

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Abstract. Detecting and explaining differences between palaeoclimates can provide valuable insights for Earth scientists investigating processes that are affected by climate change over geologic time. In this study, we describe and explain spatiotemporal patterns in palaeoclimate change that are relevant to Earth surface scientists. We apply a combination of multivariate cluster and discriminant analysis techniques to a set of high-resolution palaeoclimate simulations. The simulations were conducted with the ECHAM5 climate model and consistent setup. A pre-industrial (PI) climate simulation se

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Huziy, Oleksandr, Bernardo Teufel, Laxmi Sushama, and Ram Yerubandi. "Heavy Lake-Effect Snowfall Changes and Mechanisms for the Laurentian Great Lakes Region." Atmosphere 12, no. 12 (2021): 1577. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121577.

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Heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) events are snowfall events enhanced by interactions between lakes and overlying cold air. Significant snowfall rates and accumulations caused during such events disrupt socioeconomic activities and sometimes lead to lethal consequences. The aim of this study is to assess projected changes to HLES by the end of the century (2079–2100) using a regional climate model for the first time with 3D representation for the Laurentian Great Lakes. When compared to observations over the 1989–2010 period, the model is able to realistically reproduce key mechanisms and char

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Simmonds, Ian. "Improvements in General Circulation Model performance in simulating Antarctic climate." Antarctic Science 2, no. 4 (1990): 287–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102090000414.

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Increasingly, many aspects of the study of Antarctica and the high southern latitudes are being aided by various types of numerical models. Among these are the General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are powerful tools that can be used to understand the maintenance of present atmospheric climate and determine its sensitivity to imposed changes. The changes in the ability of GCMs used over the last two decades to simulate aspects of atmospheric climate at high southern latitudes are traced and it is concluded there has been a steady improvement in model products. The task of assessing model cl

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Manucharyan, Georgy E., and Alexey V. Fedorov. "Robust ENSO across a Wide Range of Climates." Journal of Climate 27, no. 15 (2014): 5836–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00759.1.

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Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a pronounced mode of climate variability that originates in the tropical Pacific and affects weather patterns worldwide. Growing evidence suggests that despite extensive changes in tropical climate, ENSO was active over vast geological epochs stretching millions of years from the late Cretaceous to the Holocene. In particular, ENSO persisted during the Pliocene, when a dramatic reduction occurred in the mean east–west temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific. The mechanisms for sustained ENSO in such climates are poorly understood. Here a c

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Hammond, John C., Adrian A. Harpold, Sydney Weiss, and Stephanie K. Kampf. "Partitioning snowmelt and rainfall in the critical zone: effects of climate type and soil properties." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 9 (2019): 3553–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3553-2019.

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Abstract. Streamflow generation and deep groundwater recharge may be vulnerable to loss of snow, making it important to quantify how snowmelt is partitioned between soil storage, deep drainage, evapotranspiration, and runoff. Based on previous findings, we hypothesize that snowmelt produces greater streamflow and deep drainage than rainfall and that this effect is greatest in dry climates. To test this hypothesis we examine how snowmelt and rainfall partitioning vary with climate and soil properties using a physically based variably saturated subsurface flow model, HYDRUS-1D. We developed mode

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Harrison, Sandy P. "Late Quaternary lake-level changes and climates of Australia." Quaternary Science Reviews 12, no. 4 (1993): 211–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(93)90078-z.

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Jones, Roger N., and James H. Ricketts. "Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates." Fire 7, no. 4 (2024): 113. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fire7040113.

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The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. The

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Roldán-Gómez, Pedro José, Paolo De Luca, Raffaele Bernardello, and Markus G. Donat. "Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries." Earth System Dynamics 16, no. 1 (2025): 1–27. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1-2025.

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Abstract. Overshoot scenarios, in which the forcing reaches a peak before starting to decline, show non-symmetric changes during CO2-increasing and CO2-decreasing phases, producing persistent changes in climate. Irreversibility mechanisms, associated with (among other factors) lagged responses of climate components, changes in ocean circulation and heat transport, and changes in the ice cover, bring hysteresis to the climate system. This work analyzes simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to explore the relevance of these mechanisms in overshoot scenarios w

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Kuchcik, Magdalena, Marcin Łączyński, Agata Cieszewska, et al. "Can the serious game serve as a tool for education in founding local adaptation solutions to climate change?" Geographia Polonica 97, no. 4 (2024): 485–98. https://doi.org/10.7163/gpol.0289.

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The article presents the scientific-based strategic board game Neighbourhood with Climate, which aims to become an educational tool for adaptation on a local scale to climate change in temperate climates. The game used in climate education supports citizen engagement, empowering people with the knowledge of nature-based solutions (NbS), which could be applied to prepare and protect themselves and their community from extreme weather in temperate climates. As it combines social engagement and environmental and economic elements, it fulfils the criteria for Education for Sustainable Development.

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Karimi Firozjaei, Mohammad, Hamide Mahmoodi, and Jamal Jokar Arsanjani. "Daytime Surface Urban Heat Island Variation in Response to Future Urban Expansion: An Assessment of Different Climate Regimes." Remote Sensing 17, no. 10 (2025): 1730. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17101730.

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This study focuses on assessing the physical growth of cities and the land-cover changes resulting from it, which play a crucial role in understanding the environmental impacts and managing phenomena such as the Daytime Urban Surface Heat Island Intensity (DSUHII). Predicting the trends of these changes for the future provides valuable insights for urban planning and mitigating thermal effects in arid environments. This research aims to evaluate the spatial and temporal changes in the intensity of urban surface heat islands in cities under different climatic conditions, resulting from land-cov

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Braconnot, Pascale, and Masa Kageyama. "Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373, no. 2054 (2015): 20140424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0424.

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Simulations of the climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago, and of the Mid-Holocene (MH), 6000 years ago, allow an analysis of climate feedbacks in climate states that are radically different from today. The analyses of cloud and surface albedo feedbacks show that the shortwave cloud feedback is a major driver of differences between model results. Similar behaviours appear when comparing the LGM and MH simulated changes, highlighting the fingerprint of model physics. Even though the different feedbacks show similarities between the different climate periods, the fact that

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O’Gorman, Paul A., and Tapio Schneider. "Energy of Midlatitude Transient Eddies in Idealized Simulations of Changed Climates." Journal of Climate 21, no. 22 (2008): 5797–806. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2099.1.

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Abstract As the climate changes, changes in static stability, meridional temperature gradients, and availability of moisture for latent heat release may exert competing effects on the energy of midlatitude transient eddies. This paper examines how the eddy kinetic energy in midlatitude baroclinic zones responds to changes in radiative forcing in simulations with an idealized moist general circulation model. In a series of simulations in which the optical thickness of the longwave absorber is varied over a wide range, the eddy kinetic energy has a maximum for a climate with mean temperature sim

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O’Gorman, Paul A., and Tapio Schneider. "The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM." Journal of Climate 21, no. 15 (2008): 3815–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli2065.1.

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Abstract A wide range of hydrological cycles and general circulations was simulated with an idealized general circulation model (GCM) by varying the optical thickness of the longwave absorber. While the idealized GCM does not capture the full complexity of the hydrological cycle, the wide range of climates simulated allows the systematic development and testing of theories of how precipitation and moisture transport change as the climate changes. The simulations show that the character of the response of the hydrological cycle to variations in longwave optical thickness differs in different cl

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Ng, Pei Yee, Kok Weng Tan, and Satoru Oishi. "Development of regional climate model for Hyogo prefecture, Japan using statistical downscaling method on CanESM2 RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios." E3S Web of Conferences 347 (2022): 05015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202234705015.

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For decades, climate models have been used to understand the present and historical climates, especially global climate models (GCMs). They are used to understand the interaction between climate system processes and forecast future climates. However, the issue of low resolution and accuracy often lead to inadequacy in capturing the variations in climate variables related to impact assessment. In order to capture the local climate changes in Hyogo Prefecture, a regional climate modelling based on Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was applied using the statistical downscali

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Zhou, Xiong, Guohe Huang, Joseph Piwowar, et al. "Hydrologic Impacts of Ensemble-RCM-Projected Climate Changes in the Athabasca River Basin, Canada." Journal of Hydrometeorology 19, no. 12 (2018): 1953–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-17-0232.1.

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Abstract In this study, the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) and the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) system as well as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model were integrated into a general framework to investigate impacts of future climates on the hydrologic regime of the Athabasca River basin. Regional climate models (RCMs) including PRECIS and RegCM were used to develop ensemble high-resolution climate projections for 1979–2099. RCMs were driven by the boundary conditions from the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2 with Eart

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Guo, Qinfeng, J. Brandle, M. Schoeneberger, and D. Buettner. "Simulating the dynamics of linear forests in Great Plains agroecosystems under changing climates." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 34, no. 12 (2004): 2564–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x04-138.

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Most forest growth models are not suitable for the highly fragmented, linear (or linearly shaped) forests in the Great Plains agroecosystems (e.g., windbreaks, riparian forest buffers), where such forests are a minor but ecologically important component of the land mosaics. This study used SEEDSCAPE, a recently modified gap model designed for cultivated land mosaics in the Great Plains, to simulate the effects of climate change on the dynamics of such linear forests. We simulated the dynamics of windbreaks with different initial planting species richness and widths (light changes as the select

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Lewis, S. C., and A. N. LeGrande. "Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium." Climate of the Past 11, no. 10 (2015): 1347–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015.

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Abstract. Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records can provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed on long timescales, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are typically underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships be

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