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Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, Maqsood Ahmad e Faisal Mahmood. "Heuristic biases in investment decision-making and perceived market efficiency". Qualitative Research in Financial Markets 10, n.º 1 (5 de fevereiro de 2018): 85–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/qrfm-04-2017-0033.
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Purpose This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation. Practical implications The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases. Originality/value The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.
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Gál, Peter, Miloš Mrva e Matej Meško. "Heuristics, biases and traps in managerial decision making". Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 61, n.º 7 (2013): 2117–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201361072117.
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The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the impact of heuristics, biases and psychological traps on the decision making. Heuristics are unconscious routines people use to cope with the complexity inherent in most decision situations. They serve as mental shortcuts that help people to simplify and structure the information encountered in the world. These heuristics could be quite useful in some situations, while in others they can lead to severe and systematic errors, based on significant deviations from the fundamental principles of statistics, probability and sound judgment. This paper focuses on illustrating the existence of the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics, originally described by Tversky & Kahneman in the early 1970’s. The anchoring heuristic is a tendency to focus on the initial information, estimate or perception (even random or irrelevant number) as a starting point. People tend to give disproportionate weight to the initial information they receive. The availability heuristic explains why highly imaginable or vivid information have a disproportionate effect on people’s decisions. The representativeness heuristic causes that people rely on highly specific scenarios, ignore base rates, draw conclusions based on small samples and neglect scope. Mentioned phenomena are illustrated and supported by evidence based on the statistical analysis of the results of a questionnaire.
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Dangol, Jeetendra, e Rashmita Manandhar. "Impact of Heuristics on Investment Decisions: The Moderating Role of Locus of Control". Journal of Business and Social Sciences Research 5, n.º 1 (21 de julho de 2020): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jbssr.v5i1.30195.
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This paper aims to assess the impact of heuristics on the investment decision by analysing the effect of four heuristic biases, i.e., representativeness, availability, anchoring and adjustment, and overconfidence bias on rationality of Nepalese investor's investment decision-making and also examines the moderating effect of the internal locus of control in between. The study used 391 respondents based on a convenient sampling procedure, and structured questionnaire survey. The study result indicates that there is a significant relationship between irrationality in investment decision-making and all four heuristic biases. In addition, the study also concludes that locus of control has significant moderating effect in the relationship between investment decisions and three heuristic biases, i.e., availability, representative and anchoring bias. However, the study documents no moderation effect in case of relationship with overconfidence bias.
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Henrizi, Philipp, Dario Himmelsbach e Stefan Hunziker. "Anchoring and adjustment effects on audit judgments: experimental evidence from Switzerland". Journal of Applied Accounting Research 22, n.º 4 (24 de fevereiro de 2021): 598–621. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jaar-01-2020-0011.
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PurposeThe purpose of this study is to illustrate the potentially detrimental effects on audit decision-making of certain judgmental heuristics, which can lead to systematic judgmental biases. This paper provides background on the heuristics and biases approaches to decision-making to increase auditors' awareness of the anchoring and adjustment effects affecting audit judgments adversely.Design/methodology/approachThis study reports the results of an experimental research design analyzing the audit judgment of 85 auditors in Switzerland.FindingsBased on the results of the experiment, the results indicate evidence on the existence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic in Swiss audit judgments. The authors could identify an influence of the audit company size, the auditors' experience and the auditors' knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic with regard to the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment.Research limitations/implicationsThe experimental tasks were relatively simple abstractions from the more complex analytical review situations faced by practicing auditors. Due to the small sample size, the authors cannot ensure representativeness of the results.Practical implicationsProfessional judgment is a skill that auditor acquires overtime, combined with experience and knowledge, that allows him to achieve reasonable judgments, being independent of other opinions and free from material biases in a given circumstance. Our results show that auditors who are aware of biases and heuristics are less prone to judgment biases.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to analyze the impact of auditors' explicit experience and knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic on the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment. Through a stronger awareness of cognitive biases, a professional skepticism can be enhanced.
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Bach, Richard M. "Heuristic reasoning and cognitive biases". American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics 140, n.º 1 (julho de 2011): 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajodo.2011.05.003.
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Cimpian, Andrei, e Erika Salomon. "Refining and expanding the proposal of an inherence heuristic in human understanding". Behavioral and Brain Sciences 37, n.º 5 (outubro de 2014): 506–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x14000028.
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AbstractThe inherence heuristic is a cognitive process that supplies quick and effortless explanations for a wide variety of observations. Due in part to biases in memory retrieval, this heuristic tends to overproduce explanations that appeal to the inherent features of the entities in the observations being explained (hence the heuristic's name). In this response, we use the commentators' input to clarify, refine, and expand the inherence heuristic model. The end result is a piece that complements the target article, amplifying its theoretical contribution.
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Kasoga, Pendo Shukrani. "Heuristic biases and investment decisions: multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy—a survey at the Tanzania stock market". Journal of Money and Business 1, n.º 2 (1 de novembro de 2021): 102–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jmb-10-2021-0037.
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PurposeThe purpose of this research is to examine the effect of heuristic biases on investment decisions through multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy in the Tanzanian stock market.Design/methodology/approachA sample of 316 individual investors in the Tanzanian stock market was obtained through questionnaires. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM).FindingsThe findings show that financial literacy mediates insignificantly the effects of overconfidence, availability, anchoring and representativeness heuristics on investment decisions. Further, financial literacy does not influence the effect of risk tolerance and investment decisions. Risk tolerance is confirmed as a positive mediator of overconfidence, availability, anchoring and representativeness heuristics in investment decisions. Also, the study shows that overconfidence exerts a stronger influence on investment decisions, followed by availability, representativeness, risk tolerance, anchoring and financial literacy.Research limitations/implicationsThe study deals with real investors. Therefore, it uses fewer items to measure the constructs in order to avoid respondent bias. Further research could examine the effects of heuristic biases on investment decisions by adding or modifying the items of particular constructs and studying institutional investors.Practical implicationsThe findings can help individual investors to analyze and evaluate their behavior toward stock selection. Securities institutions can use this research to understand investors' behavior, evaluate future market trends and provide advice to the investors.Originality/valuePrevious studies have examined the impact of heuristics on the investment decisions of individual investors. The unique empirical analysis developed in this paper is that it examines the multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy with respect to heuristic biases and investment decisions in the Tanzanian stock market.
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Nouri, Pouria, e Abdollah AhmadiKafeshani. "Do female and male entrepreneurs differ in their proneness to heuristics and biases?" Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies 12, n.º 3 (18 de novembro de 2019): 357–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jeee-05-2019-0062.
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Purpose Although heuristics and biases seal the fate of entrepreneurial enterprises by directly influencing entrepreneurs’ decisions, previous studies have ignored the role of gender in this regard by considering female and male entrepreneurs homogeneous in their susceptibility to heuristics and biases. Thus, this paper aims to advance the existing body of knowledge on heuristics and biases in the field of entrepreneurship by exploring two heuristics of affect and representativeness as well as three biases of overconfidence, escalation of commitment and illusion of control in female and male entrepreneurs’ entry and opportunity-related decisions. Design/methodology/approach The data were gathered through semi-structured and in-depth interviews with ten male and nine female Iranian techno-entrepreneurs active in advanced medicine and biotechnology. The gathered data were analyzed by thematic and narrative data analysis. Findings According to the results, while both male and female entrepreneurs show certain heuristics and biases, there are some noteworthy distinctions. More precisely, contrary to their male counterparts, the female entrepreneurs neither rely on the representativeness heuristic nor show any signs of the escalation of commitment in their decisions. Practical implications There are some valuable implications emanated from this study which could be of use for not only future researchers but also entrepreneurs, especially the ones founding and running small businesses themselves. Originality/value While there is a strong body of literature on heuristics and biases in the field of entrepreneurship, previous studies have considered female and male entrepreneurs homogeneous in their proneness to heuristics and biases. Thus, the current study enriches the body of knowledge by being the first comparative study of heuristics and biases in female and male entrepreneurs’ decisions.
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Savolainen, Reijo. "Heuristics elements of information-seeking strategies and tactics: a conceptual analysis". Journal of Documentation 73, n.º 6 (9 de outubro de 2017): 1322–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jd-11-2016-0144.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the picture of strategies and tactics for information seeking and searching by focusing on the heuristic elements of such strategies and tactics. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual analysis of a sample of 31 pertinent investigations was conducted to find out how researchers have approached heuristics in the above context since the 1970s. To achieve this, the study draws on the ideas produced within the research programmes on Heuristics and Biases, and Fast and Frugal Heuristics. Findings Researchers have approached the heuristic elements in three major ways. First, these elements are defined as general level constituents of browsing strategies in particular. Second, heuristics are approached as search tips. Third, there are examples of conceptualizations of individual heuristics. Familiarity heuristic suggests that people tend to prefer sources that have worked well in similar situations in the past. Recognition heuristic draws on an all-or-none distinction of the information objects, based on cues such as information scent. Finally, representativeness heuristic is based on recalling similar instances of events or objects and judging their typicality in terms of genres, for example. Research limitations/implications As the study focuses on three heuristics only, the findings cannot be generalized to describe the use of all heuristic elements of strategies and tactics for information seeking and searching. Originality/value The study pioneers by providing an in-depth analysis of the ways in which the heuristic elements are conceptualized in the context of information seeking and searching. The findings contribute to the elaboration of the conceptual issues of information behavior research.
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Jasper, Fabian, e Tuulia M. Ortner. "The Tendency to Fall for Distracting Information While Making Judgments". European Journal of Psychological Assessment 30, n.º 3 (1 de janeiro de 2014): 193–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1015-5759/a000214.
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Despite much research on thinking biases such as the representativeness, availability, and anchoring heuristics, a psychometrically sound measurement instrument for assessing the degree of heuristic thinking is still missing. Therefore, it was the goal of this study to develop and validate a new test to assess the degree of heuristic thinking associated with three particular thinking heuristics (i.e., the representativeness, availability, and anchoring heuristics). The resulting Objective Heuristic Thinking Test (OHTT) was evaluated with regard to its internal consistency, factor structure, construct validity, and stability in an internet sample (N = 300) and an independent laboratory sample (N = 55). Exploratory factor analyses resulted in three latent factors that represented the three OHTT subscales (i.e., representativeness, availability, and anchoring factors). Results revealed a low to sufficient internal consistency for each of the three scales. Further analyses indicated convergent correlations of the OHTT scales with related constructs such as field-independency. Furthermore, good stability of the test scores was shown. Conclusions are drawn regarding possible future applications of the OHTT as a promising tool for studying the origins of heuristic thinking processes.
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Zhang, Haili, Hans van der Bij e Michael Song. "Can cognitive biases be good for entrepreneurs?" International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research 26, n.º 4 (10 de abril de 2020): 793–813. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijebr-03-2019-0173.
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PurposeWhile some studies have found that cognitive biases are detrimental to entrepreneurial performance, others have conjectured that cognitive biases may stimulate entrepreneurial action. This study uses a typology of availability and representative heuristics to examine how two patterns of biases affect entrepreneurial performance. Drawing on ideas from cognitive science, this study predicts that various levels of biases in each pattern stimulate entrepreneurial behavior and performance.Design/methodology/approachA profile-deviation approach was employed to analyze data from 253 entrepreneurs and zero-truncated Poisson regression and the zero-truncated negative binomial regression to test hypotheses.FindingsThis study finds some positive associations between a particular level of cognitive biases in each of the two patterns and entrepreneurial behavior and performance. Results show that the patterns of biases often stimulate and never hurt entrepreneurial behavior and performance. The opposite holds for a lack of cognitive biases, which hurts and never stimulates entrepreneurial behavior and performance.Originality/valueThis study examines patterns of cognitive biases of entrepreneurs instead of single biases. The study broadens the perspective on the heuristics and cognitive biases of entrepreneurs by examining patterns of biases emanating from the availability and the representativeness heuristic that make a difference for entrepreneurial behavior and performance. The study also brings the “great rationality debate” closer to the entrepreneurship field by showing that a normative rule based on statistics and probability theory does not benefit entrepreneurial behavior and performance.
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Ganzach, Yoav. "Coherence and correspondence in the psychological analysis of numerical predictions: How error-prone heuristics are replaced by ecologically valid heuristics". Judgment and Decision Making 4, n.º 2 (março de 2009): 175–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500002618.
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AbstractNumerical predictions are of central interest for both coherence-based approaches to judgment and decisions — the Heuristic and Biases (HB) program in particular — and to correspondence-based approaches — Social Judgment Theory (SJT). In this paper I examine the way these two approaches study numerical predictions by reviewing papers that use Cue Probability Learning (CPL), the central experimental paradigm for studying numerical predictions in the SJT tradition, while attempting to look for heuristics and biases. The theme underlying this review is that both bias-prone heuristics and adaptive heuristics govern subjects’ predictions in CPL. When they have little experience to guide them, subjects fall prey to relying on bias-prone natural heuristics, such as representativeness and anchoring and adjustment, which are the only prediction strategies available to them. But, as they acquire experience with the prediction task, these heuristics are abandoned and replaced by ecologically valid heuristics.
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Kathpal, Shashank, Asif Akhtar, Asma Zaheer e Mohd Naved Khan. "Covid-19 and heuristic biases: evidence from India". Journal of Financial Services Marketing 26, n.º 4 (27 de outubro de 2021): 305–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41264-021-00116-x.
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Wolkenstein, Larissa, Katrin Bruchmüller, Petra Schmid e Thomas D. Meyer. "Misdiagnosing bipolar disorder — Do clinicians show heuristic biases?" Journal of Affective Disorders 130, n.º 3 (maio de 2011): 405–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2010.10.036.
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Maradona, Agus Fredy. "A Qualitative Exploration of Heuristics and Cognitive Biases in Auditor Judgements". ACCOUNTABILITY 9, n.º 2 (18 de dezembro de 2020): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.32400/ja.30634.9.2.2020.94-112.
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Professional judgement is inherent in financial statement audits because various methods, techniques, or approaches prescribed in auditing standards do not provide auditors with detailed guidance or specific audit criteria. While auditors are expected to exercise their judgements based on careful reasoning, there is a possibility that they do not always follow such an approach and instead make their judgements using heuristics. This study aims to penetrate and reveal whether there are cognitive biases in the judgements of auditors and what heuristics lead to these biases. This study employs a qualitative research design and uses ethnomethodology as a research approach. Data were collected using in-depth semi-structured interviews with 15 auditors who were either partners, managers, seniors, or juniors at a public accounting firm. Using the heuristic-bias framework as a theoretical lens and based on an analysis involving data condensation, data display, and conclusion drawing and verification, this study identifies five types of biases that auditors can experience: jumping to conclusions, groupthink, representativeness, availability, and anchoring biases. The results of this study present practical implications for auditors, accounting professional associations, public accounting firms, and academic institutions. That is, the findings provide insights for formulating strategies aimed at raising auditors’ awareness about possible systematic errors, or biases, in professional judgements when auditors rely on heuristics as a simplifying judgement-making strategy.
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Czerwonka, Monika. "Anchoring and Overconfidence: The Influence of Culture and Cognitive Abilities". International Journal of Management and Economics 53, n.º 3 (1 de setembro de 2017): 48–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ijme-2017-0018.
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AbstractAnchoring and overconfidence are some of the best-known biases in psychology and behavioral finance literature. While a number of studies have investigated the evidence of these biases and explored the motives and human factors that contribute to the one’s susceptibility to the effects, little is known about the cultural factors behind these heuristic biases. This paper aims to fill the research gap and shows the differences in proneness to the anchoring effect and overconfidence in two samples of students from Poland and India. The purpose of the study is twofold: to analyze susceptibility to behavioral effects relative to cultural background; and to consider the subjects’ cognitive abilities as a potential factor in their exposure to behavioral biases and confirm that subjects with higher cognitive skills, measured by the cognitive reflection test (CRT) display less susceptibility to the above heuristic biases.
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Vis, Barbara. "Heuristics and Political Elites’ Judgment and Decision-Making". Political Studies Review 17, n.º 1 (1 de fevereiro de 2018): 41–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1478929917750311.
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It is broadly assumed that political elites (e.g. party leaders) regularly rely on heuristics in their judgments or decision-making. In this article, I aim to bring together and discuss the scattered literature on this topic. To address the current conceptual unclarity, I discuss two traditions on heuristics: (1) the heuristics and biases (H&B) tradition pioneered by Kahneman and Tversky and (2) the fast and frugal heuristics (F&F) tradition pioneered by Gigerenzer et al. I propose to concentrate on two well-defined heuristics from the H&B tradition— availability and representativeness—to empirically assess when political elites rely on heuristics and thereby understand better their judgments and decisions. My review of existing studies supports the notion that political elites use the availability heuristic and possibly the representativeness one for making complex decisions under uncertainty. It also reveals that besides this, we still know relatively little about when political elites use which heuristic and with what effect(s). Therefore, I end by proposing an agenda for future research.
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Lo, Andrew, e Alexander Remerov. "Algorithmic Models of Investor Behavior". Journal of Systematic Investing 1, n.º 1 (23 de fevereiro de 2021): 1–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.52354/jsi.1.1.ii.
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We propose a heuristic approach to modeling investor behavior by simulating combinations of simpler systematic investment strategies associated with well-known behavioral biases—in functional forms motivated by an extensive review of the behavioral finance literature—using parameters calibrated from historical data. We compute the investment performance of these heuristics individually and in pairwise combinations using both simulated and historical asset-class returns. The mean-reversion or momentum nature of a heuristic can often explain its effect on performance, depending on whether asset returns are consistent with such dynamics. These algorithms show that seemingly irrational investor behavior may, in fact, have been shaped by evolutionary forces and can be effective in certain environments and maladaptive in others.
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Su, Kexin. "The Introduction and Applications of Representativeness Heuristics". BCP Social Sciences & Humanities 19 (30 de agosto de 2022): 645–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.54691/bcpssh.v19i.1804.
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Representativeness heuristic is one of the major cognitive shortcuts behaviours that instead a question of probability on one of similarity. Individuals are good at using representativeness method to solve problems since it is easier and faster to evaluate how closely the problem corresponds to a similar one. However, the customary use of representativeness heuristic may generate severe biases and errors by mental shortcuts, especially on judgements and probability estimations processes. Nowadays, the study of representativeness heuristic has practical significances and widely influences on residential daily activities and commercial operations from decision-making perspective. This paper will continue on analysing the representativeness heuristic further regarding to its fundamental theory, connotation, and applications on different fields to explain how representativeness heuristic to affect people’s decision-making processes and other behaviours imperceptibly through a qualitative research method. By means of analysing three cases in stock market, political behaviours, and medical diagnosis, this paper finds that it is possible to avoid the biases and errors caused by representativeness heuristic mental shortcuts through practicing systematically and increasing awareness effectively.
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Hussein, Mohamed. "Foreign language and Decision-making Biases: A Brief Exploration of the Relationship Between Emotions, using a Foreign Language, and Decision-making". Journal of Student Research 4, n.º 1 (1 de fevereiro de 2015): 18–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.47611/jsr.v4i1.207.
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Contrary to what traditional normative decision-making models claim, a change in how a given problem is framed influences the outcome of the decision-making process. Neurological research has shown that during this so-called framing effect, brain structures that are typically associated with the emotional system are activated, suggesting an emotional dimension to the processes that underlie heuristic biases. Recent studies have also shown that thinking in a foreign language can reduce physiological responses typically associated with emotional reactions. This research paper explores the relationship between using a foreign language, emotions, and decision-making in order to determine whether using a foreign language can reduce decision-making biases. More specifically, this paper reasons that using a foreign language can reduce some heuristic biases provided that the given problem is emotionally-laden.
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Kiełczewski, Dariusz, Anna Matel e Tomasz Poskrobko. "Project Management in Behavioural Perspective – Cognitive Biases in the Formulation of the Aim of the Project". Ekonomia i Zarzadzanie 8, n.º 3 (1 de setembro de 2016): 70–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/emj-2016-0025.
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Abstract The article contains a behavioural analysis of the aim-formulating stage of the project. The purpose of the article is to point out that in the process of formulating the aim of the project, it comes to such decision-making situations which favour heuristic thinking. The article presents the results of the secondary research. As a result of verified theory, according to which in the process of formulating the aim of the project, the interference in decision-making processes may occur on the part of the heuristics and the resulting cognitive biases.
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Ghorban Nejad, Shiva, e Håvard Hansen. "Environmentally Motivated Travel Reduction: The Effects of Availability, Herding Bias, and Self-Monitoring". Sustainability 13, n.º 2 (12 de janeiro de 2021): 691. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13020691.
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Asking consumers to consume less, or to travel less, does not necessarily make them do so and is, therefore, a key challenge for public policy-makers and green marketers. In this paper, we scrutinize the effect of intuitive decisions/judgments as well as personality differences on consumers’ intentions to consume less. More specifically, we study how the availability heuristic, herding biases, and self-monitoring influence environmentally motivated consumption reduction (EMCR) in a tourism context. Drawing on EMCR and a heuristics-and-biases approach, we present an experimental study designed to test how availability (high vs. low information availability), herding behavior (herd present vs. no herd), and high vs. low self-monitoring influence consumers’ intentions to travel less in the future. The results suggest that the existence of a herd influence environmentally motivated travel reductions. Also, high self-monitors are more capable of sensing the eco-friendly direction of the public opinion in general, and adjust their behavior to align with this, than individuals with a lower self-monitoring tendency. Finally, there is a positive interaction between herding bias and self-monitoring, while we found no significant effect of the availability heuristic on the environmentally motivated travel reduction. The implications of the results and future research avenues are discussed.
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Altabbaa, Ghazwan, Amanda D. Raven e Jason Laberge. "A simulation-based approach to training in heuristic clinical decision-making". Diagnosis 6, n.º 2 (26 de junho de 2019): 91–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/dx-2018-0084.
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Abstract Background Cognitive biases may negatively impact clinical decision-making. The dynamic nature of a simulation environment can facilitate heuristic decision-making which can serve as a teaching opportunity. Methods Momentum bias, confirmation bias, playing-the-odds bias, and order-effect bias were integrated into four simulation scenarios. Clinical simulation educators and human factors specialists designed a script of events during scenarios to trigger heuristic decision-making. Debriefing included the exploration of frames (mental models) resulting in the observed actions, as well as a discussion of specific bias-prone frames and bias-resistant frames. Simulation sessions and debriefings were coded to measure the occurrence of bias, recovery from biased decision-making, and effectiveness of debriefings. Results Twenty medical residents and 18 medical students participated in the study. Twenty pairs (of one medical student and one resident) and two individuals (medical residents alone) completed a simulation session. Evidence of bias was observed in 11 of 20 (55%) sessions. While most participant pairs were able to avoid or recover from the anticipated bias, there were three sessions with no recovery. Evaluation of debriefings showed exploration of frames in all the participant pairs. Establishing new bias-resistant frames occurred more often when the learners experienced the bias. Conclusions Instructional design using experiential learning can focus learner attention on the specific elements of diagnostic decision-making. Using scenario design and debriefing enabled trainees to experience and analyze their own cognitive biases.
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Otuteye, Eben, e Mohammad Siddiquee. "Overcoming Cognitive Biases: A Heuristic for Making Value Investing Decisions". Journal of Behavioral Finance 16, n.º 2 (3 de abril de 2015): 140–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2015.1034859.
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Scheiter, Katharina, Rakefet Ackerman e Vincent Hoogerheide. "Looking at Mental Effort Appraisals through a Metacognitive Lens: Are they Biased?" Educational Psychology Review 32, n.º 4 (1 de agosto de 2020): 1003–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10648-020-09555-9.
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Abstract A central factor in research guided by the Cognitive Load Theory (CLT) is the mental effort people invest in performing a task. Mental effort is commonly assessed by asking people to report their effort throughout performing, learning, or problem-solving tasks. Although this measurement is considered reliable and valid in CLT research, metacognitive research provides robust evidence that self-appraisals of performance are often biased. In this review, we consider the possibility that mental effort appraisals may also be biased. In particular, we review signs for covariations and mismatches between subjective and objective measures of effort. Our review suggests that subjective and most objective effort measures appear reliable and valid when evaluated in isolation, because they discriminate among tasks of varying complexity. However, not much is known about their mutual correspondence—that is, whether subjective measures covariate with objective measures. Moreover, there is evidence that people utilize heuristic cues when appraising their effort, similar to utilization of heuristic cues underlying metacognitive appraisals of performance. These cues are identified by exposing biases—mismatch in effects of cue variations on appraisals and performance. The review concludes with a research agenda in which we suggest applying the well-established methodologies for studying biases in self-appraisals of performance in metacognitive research to investigating effort appraisals. One promising method could be to determine the covariation of effort appraisals and objective effort measures as an indicator of the resolution of effort appraisals.
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Praditha, Riza, Haliah Haliah, Abdul Hamid Habbe e Yohanis Rura. "DO INVESTORS EXPERIENCE HEURISTICS IN EARNINGS FORECASTING?" Business: Theory and Practice 21, n.º 2 (23 de outubro de 2020): 686–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/btp.2020.12018.
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This research aims to examine empirically the overreliance on representativeness heuristic and anchoring-adjustment influences experienced by investors in forecasting future earnings. This research was a laboratory experiment with a design of 2x2 full factorial between subject. The results showed that representativeness heuristics were only experienced by investors who obtained positive information. Besides, this study also shows that investors do not overreliance on anchoring-adjustment heuristics. Generally, this research shows that cognitive biases occur when the information presented is of good value so that it can be taken into consideration for investors to be more careful in making predictions. Multiple benchmark information can be used as a consideration in evaluating the company’s earnings and stock performance.
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Singh, Sandeep, e Ashish Nag. "The role of behavioral finance in modern age investment". Journal of Management and Science 6, n.º 1 (30 de junho de 2016): 135–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.26524/jms.2016.12.
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Decision making process is very complex task that involves various activities like industry and company analysis along with analysis of past performance of individual stocks/assets. Asunder from this, one of the most important factors that influence the individual's investment decision is cognitive illusions. Individual investor‘s behavior is influenced by various heuristic and biases, which are brought to light by the emerging field of behavioral finance. This paper provides aconceptual framework of the various principles of Behavioral Finance including cognitive illusion: Heuristics, Overconfidence, Representativeness, Anchoring, Gambler's Fallacy,Prospect Theory, Loss Aversion, Regret Aversion, Mental Accounting and Disposition Effect.
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Stupple, Edward J. N., e Eleanor F. Waterhouse. "Short article: Negations in syllogistic reasoning: Evidence for a heuristic–analytic conflict". Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 62, n.º 8 (agosto de 2009): 1533–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17470210902785674.
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An experiment utilizing response time measures was conducted to test dominant processing strategies in syllogistic reasoning with the expanded quantifier set proposed by Roberts (2005). Through adding negations to existing quantifiers it is possible to change problem surface features without altering logical validity. Biases based on surface features such as atmosphere, matching, and the probability heuristics model (PHM; Chater & Oaksford, 1999; Wetherick & Gilhooly, 1995) would not be expected to show variance in response latencies, but participant responses should be highly sensitive to changes in the surface features of the quantifiers. In contrast, according to analytic accounts such as mental models theory and mental logic (e.g., Johnson-Laird & Byrne, 1991; Rips, 1994) participants should exhibit increased response times for negated premises, but not be overly impacted upon by the surface features of the conclusion. Data indicated that the dominant response strategy was based on a matching heuristic, but also provided evidence of a resource-demanding analytic procedure for dealing with double negatives. The authors propose that dual-process theories offer a stronger account of these data whereby participants employ competing heuristic and analytic strategies and fall back on a heuristic response when analytic processing fails.
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Plessner, Henning. "Expectation Biases in Gymnastics Judging". Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology 21, n.º 2 (junho de 1999): 131–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/jsep.21.2.131.
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Several studies have found that gymnasts’ placement in within-team order affects their scores (e.g., Scheer & Ansorge, 1975). This effect has been explained in terms of judges’ expectations yielding a cognitive confirmation. In the present study, the influence of expectations on gymnastics judging was conceptualized within the schema approach of social cognition research. Three factors are addressed that contribute to the understanding of the placement effect: task difficulty, social situation, and process stages. In an experiment, 48 gymnastics judges scored videotaped routines of a men’s team competition. Target routines appeared either in the first or the fifth position of within-team order. Depending on the difficulty of the judgment task, a significant placement effect was found. This effect resulted from biased encoding of single elements, as well as from heuristic judgment strategies. Results are discussed in reference to the practice of gymnastics judging.
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Jacobs, Janis E., e Paul A. Klaczynski. "The Development of Judgment and Decision Making During Childhood and Adolescence". Current Directions in Psychological Science 11, n.º 4 (agosto de 2002): 145–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8721.00188.
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Research on adult judgment and decision making has focused on deviations from normative models, demonstrating biases and reliance on heuristic shortcuts, thus presenting a very different picture than developmental theories that describe a unidirectional progression toward greater logic and efficiency. Recent research related to this apparent contradiction indicates that children develop competencies to reason effectively and make normative decisions, but also develop biased judgment strategies that are used inappropriately in some situations. We suggest potential explanations for the findings, highlighting the need to consider models that incorporate development in both experiential and analytic information processing systems.
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Gutzwiller, Robert S., Kimberly J. Ferguson-Walter e Sunny J. Fugate. "Are Cyber Attackers Thinking Fast and Slow? Exploratory Analysis Reveals Evidence of Decision-Making Biases in Red Teamers". Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 63, n.º 1 (novembro de 2019): 427–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1071181319631096.
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We report on whether cyber attacker behaviors contain decision making biases. Data from a prior experiment were analyzed in an exploratory fashion, making use of think-aloud responses from a small group of red teamers. The analysis provided new observational evidence of traditional decision-making biases in red team behaviors (confirmation bias, anchoring, and take-the-best heuristic use). These biases may disrupt red team decisions and goals, and simultaneously increase their risk of detection. Interestingly, at least part of the bias induction may be related to the use of cyber deception. Future directions include the development of behavioral measurement techniques for these and additional cognitive biases in cyber operators, examining the role of attacker traits, and identifying the conditions where biases can be induced successfully in experimental conditions.
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Morrow, Jannay. "Demonstrating the Anchoring-Adjustment Heuristic and the Power of the Situation". Teaching of Psychology 29, n.º 2 (abril de 2002): 129–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1207/s15328023top2902_11.
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This article presents a technique used to elucidate the anchoring-adjustment heuristic and to integrate the concept with social psychological principles. After drawing a high or low number out of a hat, students estimated the number of yearly stroke-related deaths that occur in the United States. The interaction between type of anchor and familiarity with the heuristic predicted stroke estimates. Class discussion highlighted the power of situational forces, implications of cognitive biases, and methodological issues. Students' pre- and postdemonstration definitions of the anchoring-adjustment heuristic indicated that the demonstration helped them to understand the concept. Students described the demonstration and discussion as informative and enjoyable.
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Ball, Linden J., Erica J. Lucas, Jeremy N. V. Miles e Alastair G. Gale. "Inspection Times and the Selection Task: What do Eye-Movements Reveal about Relevance Effects?" Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Section A 56, n.º 6 (agosto de 2003): 1053–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02724980244000729.
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Three experiments are reported that used eye-movement tracking to investigate the inspection-time effect predicted by Evans’ (1996) heuristic-analytic account of the Wason selection task. Evans’ account proposes that card selections are based on the operation of relevance-determining heuristics, whilst analytic processing only rationalizes selections. As such, longer inspection times should be associated with selected cards (which are subjected to rationalization) than with rejected cards. Evidence for this effect has been provided by Evans (1996) using computer- presented selection tasks and instructions for participants to indicate (with a mouse pointer) cards under consideration. Roberts (1998b) has argued that mouse pointing gives rise to artefactual support for Evans’ predictions because of biases associated with the task format and the use of mouse pointing. We eradicated all sources of artefact by combining careful task constructions with eye-movement tracking to measure directly on-line attentional processing. All three experiments produced good evidence for the robustness of the inspection-time effect, supporting the predictions of the heuristic-analytic account.
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Feehan, Michael, Leah A. Owen, Ian M. McKinnon e Margaret M. DeAngelis. "Artificial Intelligence, Heuristic Biases, and the Optimization of Health Outcomes: Cautionary Optimism". Journal of Clinical Medicine 10, n.º 22 (14 de novembro de 2021): 5284. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10225284.
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The use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in clinical care offers great promise to improve patient health outcomes and reduce health inequity across patient populations. However, inherent biases in these applications, and the subsequent potential risk of harm can limit current use. Multi-modal workflows designed to minimize these limitations in the development, implementation, and evaluation of ML systems in real-world settings are needed to improve efficacy while reducing bias and the risk of potential harms. Comprehensive consideration of rapidly evolving AI technologies and the inherent risks of bias, the expanding volume and nature of data sources, and the evolving regulatory landscapes, can contribute meaningfully to the development of AI-enhanced clinical decision making and the reduction in health inequity.
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Ugras, Mustafa. "HEURISTIC REASONING OF PRE-SERVICE SCIENCE TEACHERS IN CHEMISTRY TOPICS". Journal of Baltic Science Education 17, n.º 2 (25 de abril de 2018): 343–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.33225/jbse/18.17.356.
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The aim of the present research is to explain how the heuristics utilized by the students in a multiple choice examination on the general chemistry subject of “chemical bonding theories and molecular structures” caused biases on intuitive judgment and decision making processes, using the three characteristics of associative memory (attribute substitution, fluency process and associative coherence). A mixed-methods approach, both qualitative and quantitative research methods, were used in this research. Therefore, both questionnaire and individual interview were utilized to collect data. The results of the current research demonstrated that the participants used 4 different decision making strategies. Detailed evaluation of these strategies demonstrated that most of the participants did not prefer the processes related to the use of chemical knowledge and thus, were not able to assess the target attribute. Furthermore, it was identified that most of the students’ decision making processes were dependent on one or more of these three associative memory processes. It was also determined by this research that the most dominant of these three associative memory processes is the fluency effect, since participants often prefer to use superficial features. The dependence of participants on associative memory processes caused various biases, so participants often responded incorrectly to questions. Keywords: chemistry education, chemical reasoning, intuitive judgments, science education.
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Pickett, Justin T. "Using Behavioral Economics to Advance Deterrence Research and Improve Crime Policy: Some Illustrative Experiments". Crime & Delinquency 64, n.º 12 (21 de março de 2018): 1636–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0011128718763136.
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Recent experiments show that offender decision making is characterized by the use of cognitive heuristics. Questions remain about what this means for deterrence research and policy. I argue that the primary task is to identify ways to leverage decision-making biases to reduce crime. I outline three avenues for future research on deterrence, and discuss their relevance for crime policy. To illustrate these lines of inquiry and stimulate additional studies, I provide initial experimental results for each topic. I report evidence that (a) pseudocertainty publicity can increase perceived arrest risk and deterrent fear, (b) the availability heuristic can help explain how target characteristics affect situational perceptions of crime benefits and costs, and (c) individuals experience declining sensitivity to increases in sanction severity.
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Kunwar, Kripa. "The Relationship of Behavioral Factors with Investment Performance of Individual Investors in the Nepali Stock Market". Prithvi Academic Journal 4 (12 de maio de 2021): 66–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/paj.v4i0.37016.
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In recent years, the market anomalies and irrational behavior of investors have influenced the stock market worldwide. The impact of investor behavior on the stock market is more prominent in small and less efficient capital markets. The study is based on the questionnaire survey of 203 investors from Kathmandu and Pokhara. The study uses Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) to explore the underlying dimensions of investor behavior employing Principal Component Analysis and Varimax rotation. The suitability of the data for the factor analysis has been examined using KMO and Barlett’s Test of Sphericity. The EFA extracted four factors of investor behavioral dimensions categorized as: heuristics, prospects, market factors and herding effect. The factor scores obtained from the EFA was used to examine the correlation of these behavioral factors with investment performance. The results reveal that behavioral biases like heuristics, prospects, market factor and herding effect are present among individual investors in Nepal. Among the factors, the investment performance of investors is found to be influenced by heuristics and market factors. The heuristic behaviors are found to have the highest and positive influence on the investment performance. Finally, the results depict that following the herd behavior in the market and prospects does not result in the improved investor performance. The findings are helpful to understand the role of investor behavior in the stock market and formulation of appropriate policies that limit the possibility of behavioral biases affecting the stock market adversely.
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Lee, Jihye, e James T. Hamilton. "Anchoring in the past, tweeting from the present: Cognitive bias in journalists’ word choices". PLOS ONE 17, n.º 3 (2 de março de 2022): e0263730. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263730.
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This study examines journalists’ language in their reporting and what their word choices reveal about their cognitive mindsets. Reporters on the campaign trail often cannot afford to engage in systematic information processing as they distill complex political situations under deadline pressures. Twitter’s emphasis on speed and informal cultural milieu can further lead journalists to rely on heuristics and emotions. Drawing upon insights from theories of the mind, memory, and language, this study explores how cognitive biases are embodied in journalistic work across different media. We built a large-scale dataset of text corpora that consisted of more than 220,000 news articles, broadcast transcripts, and tweets generated over a year by 73 campaign reporters in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Leveraging this unique dataset of journalistic outputs from a campaign season, we conducted automated text analyses. Results suggest that heuristics and intuitive thinking played a significant role in the generation of content on Twitter. Journalists infused their tweets with more emotion, compared to when they appeared in traditional media such as newspapers and broadcasts. Journalists’ tweets contained fewer words related to analytical and long-term thinking than their writing. Journalists also used informal language in their tweets to connect with their audiences in more personal and casual manners. Across all media examined in the study, journalists described the current race by drawing upon their experience of covering prior presidential elections, a form of anchoring heuristic. This study extends the use of cognitive biases in politics to a new realm, reporting, and shows how journalists’ use of language on the campaign trail reflects cognitive biases that arise when individuals make decisions under time pressure and uncertainty.
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Khalil, Elias B., Christopher Morris e Andrea Lodi. "MIP-GNN: A Data-Driven Framework for Guiding Combinatorial Solvers". Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 36, n.º 9 (28 de junho de 2022): 10219–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v36i9.21262.
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Mixed-integer programming (MIP) technology offers a generic way of formulating and solving combinatorial optimization problems. While generally reliable, state-of-the-art MIP solvers base many crucial decisions on hand-crafted heuristics, largely ignoring common patterns within a given instance distribution of the problem of interest. Here, we propose MIP-GNN, a general framework for enhancing such solvers with data-driven insights. By encoding the variable-constraint interactions of a given mixed-integer linear program (MILP) as a bipartite graph, we leverage state-of-the-art graph neural network architectures to predict variable biases, i.e., component-wise averages of (near) optimal solutions, indicating how likely a variable will be set to 0 or 1 in (near) optimal solutions of binary MILPs. In turn, the predicted biases stemming from a single, once-trained model are used to guide the solver, replacing heuristic components. We integrate MIP-GNN into a state-of-the-art MIP solver, applying it to tasks such as node selection and warm-starting, showing significant improvements compared to the default setting of the solver on two classes of challenging binary MILPs. Our code and appendix are publicly available at https://github.com/lyeskhalil/mipGNN.
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AlKhars, Mohammed, Nicholas Evangelopoulos, Robert Pavur e Shailesh Kulkarni. "Cognitive biases resulting from the representativeness heuristic in operations management: an experimental investigation". Psychology Research and Behavior Management Volume 12 (abril de 2019): 263–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/prbm.s193092.
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Pedersen, Mads Møller, Kristian Breds Geoffroy Mongelard, Anne Mørup-Petersen, Karl Bang Christensen e Anders Odgaard. "Clinicians’ heuristic assessments of radiographs compared with Kellgren-Lawrence and Ahlbäck ordinal grading: an exploratory study of knee radiographs using paired comparisons". BMJ Open 11, n.º 3 (março de 2021): e041793. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041793.
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ObjectivesOrdinal scales provide means for communicating the severity of a condition, but they are affected by cognitive biases, they introduce statistical problems and they sacrifice resolution. Clinicians discern more details than contained in scales, for example, when assessing radiographs, but clinicians’ distinctions are often based on experience-based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics. The objectives of this study are to compare clinicians’ heuristic assessments to ordinal grading, to identify case elements that influence clinicians’ judgements and to present a method for quantifying heuristic assessments.DesignClinicians were presented with 17 207 random pairs from a set of 1087 knee radiographs. For each pair, the radiograph with more severe osteoarthritis was selected. The Bradley-Terry model was used to calculate an osteoarthritis strength parameter for each radiograph. Similarly, strength parameters were determined for 12 morphological features with five additional features being considered either present or absent. All radiographs were also graded according to conventional ordinal systems (Kellgren-Lawrence and Ahlbäck). Relations between clinicians’ judgements and (1) the heuristics-based osteoarthritis strength, (2) conventional ordinal systems and (3) morphological features were investigated.ResultsReceiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the Bradley-Terry model provided a good description of clinicians’ assessments (area under the curve (AUC)=0.97, 95% CI 0.968 to 0.972). Morphological features (AUC=0.90, 95% CI 0.900 to 0.908) provided a superior description of clinicians’ choices compared with conventional ordinal systems (AUC=0.88, 95% CI 0.878 to 0.887 and AUC=0.80, 95% CI 0.796 to 0.809) for Ahlbäck and Kellgren-Lawrence, respectively). The features most strongly associated with osteoarthritis strength were medial joint space width, flattening of the medial femoral and tibial condyles, medial osteophytes and alignment.ConclusionsHeuristics-based assessments give a better distinction than conventional grading systems of knee osteoarthritis. The example presents a general approach to evaluate which features are part of experts’ heuristics. The data suggest that experts discern more details than included in conventional ordinal grading systems. Quantitative heuristic assessments may replace ordinal scales.
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CORCORAN, RHIANNON, SINEAD CUMMINS, GEORGINA ROWSE, ROSIE MOORE, NIGEL BLACKWOOD, ROBERT HOWARD, PETER KINDERMAN e RICHARD P. BENTALL. "Reasoning under uncertainty: heuristic judgments in patients with persecutory delusions or depression". Psychological Medicine 36, n.º 8 (31 de maio de 2006): 1109–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s003329170600794x.
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Objective. The substantial literature examining social reasoning in people with delusions has, to date, neglected the commonest form of decision making in daily life. We address this imbalance by reporting here the findings of the first study to explore heuristic reasoning in people with persecutory delusions.Method. People with active or remitted paranoid delusions, depressed and healthy adults performed two novel heuristic reasoning tasks that varied in emotional valence.Results. The findings indicated that people with persecutory delusions displayed biases during heuristic reasoning that were most obvious when reasoning about threatening and positive material. Clear similarities existed between the currently paranoid group and the depressed group in terms of their reasoning about the likelihood of events happening to them, with both groups tending to believe that pleasant things would not happen to them. However, only the currently paranoid group showed an increased tendency to view other people as threatening.Conclusion. This study has initiated the exploration of heuristic reasoning in paranoia and depression. The findings have therapeutic utility and future work could focus on the differentiation of paranoia and depression at a cognitive level.
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Sood, Deepak, e Vinay Kumar Sharma. "Behavioural Biases in Investor’s Stock Market Participation in Post Pandemic Phase: A Literature Review Approach". ECS Transactions 107, n.º 1 (24 de abril de 2022): 10585–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1149/10701.10585ecst.
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the literature on the role of biases in shaping the decision-based anomalies in investor's stock market participation. The paper reviews the literature across a wider spectrum of biases involving heuristic perspective, prospect theory, herding, market, overconfidence, anchoring, and other representative aspects. The study embeds the sources of biases as critical to the understanding of consequences for investment decision making and respective stock market participation. The study evaluates the literature on the investor's self-dispositions, optimism, and other irrational mistakes as possessing consequences for investment decision making. The study presents the literature in post COVID pandemic times to assess the possible implication of financial uncertainty as shaping the investor's stock market participation. The study especially figures out the implications of faltering financial literacy and contingent financial inconsistency as shaping biases and resultant participation. The paper reviewed the existing literature especially in midst of COVID-19 pandemic and publications on the changes in financial behaviour. The PhD work will contribute towards understanding of changes in the biases in financial decision making and investor’s stock market participation in post COVID times.
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anderson, christopher j. "alternative perspectives on omission bias". Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28, n.º 4 (agosto de 2005): 544. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x05230091.
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the act/omission distinction is likely to lead to biases and be used as a moral heuristic. however, it is frequently difficult to determine whether this act/omission distinction is responsible for a judgment outside the lab. further, more encompassing theories of omission bias are needed to make progress in dealing with its harmful consequences. one such theory is briefly presented.
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Phillips, Scott W. "The formation of suspicion: A vignette study". International Journal of Police Science & Management 22, n.º 3 (10 de junho de 2020): 274–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1461355720929038.
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Being suspicious is part of police training, and is emphasized in police culture. Tversky and Kahneman argued that people make decisions based on a limited number of heuristic factors to reduce a complex task to likely probabilities ( Tversky A and Kahneman D [1974] Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185[4157]: 1124–1131). This study contributes to the body of scholarship studying police suspicion. It uses vignettes describing an incident involving characteristics important when police officers form suspicion. This design allows respondents to judge a situation before actual engagement. A convenience sample of police officers, supervisors, and administrators from police agencies of different sizes located in two different states responded to an online survey. Results demonstrated that the time of an event, the person’s race, and their manner of dress, contributed to the formation of suspicion. Other factors (i.e., suspect age, neighborhood) were not significantly related to suspicion. Further, respondents with few years of experience were more likely to see the conditions within a vignette as suspicious. The findings indicate that unacceptable stereotyping can result from using scanty or outdated heuristic tools to simplify decision-making. Further, there is a need for additional research examining the conditions related to suspicion formation.
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Schettini, Irene, Gabriele Palozzi e Antonio Chirico. "Enhancing Healthcare Decision-Making Process: Findings from Orthopaedic Field". Administrative Sciences 10, n.º 4 (25 de novembro de 2020): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/admsci10040094.
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In the healthcare field, the decision-making process is part of the broad spectrum of “clinical reasoning”, which is recognised as the whole process by which a physician decides about patients’ treatments and cares. Several clinicians’ intrinsic variables lead to this decisional path. Little is known about the inference of these variables in triggering biases in decisions about the post-discharge period in the surgical field. Accordingly, this research aims to understand if and how cognitive biases can affect orthopaedists in decision-making regarding the follow-up after knee and hip arthroplasty. To achieve this goal, an interview-based explorative case study was run. Three key-decisional orthopaedic surgeons were interviewed through a quality control tool aimed at monitoring the causes and effects of cognitive distortions. Coherently with the literature, eight biases come to light. All the interviewees agree on the presence of four common biases in orthopaedic surgery (Affect heuristic, Anchoring, Halo effect, Saliency). The other biases (Groupthink, Availability, Overconfidence, Confirmation), instead, depending on specific physicians’ intrinsic variables; namely: (i) working experience; (ii) working context. This finding contributes to the debate about the application of cognitive tools as leverage for improving the quality of clinical decision-making process and, indirectly, enhancing better healthcare outcomes.
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Schoemaker, Paul J. H. "The quest for optimality: A positive heuristic of science?" Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14, n.º 2 (junho de 1991): 205–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x00066140.
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AbstractThis paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of one of science's most pervasive and flexible metaprinciples;optimalityis used to explain utility maximization in economics, least effort principles in physics, entropy in chemistry, and survival of the fittest in biology. Fermat's principle of least time involves both teleological and causal considerations, two distinct modes of explanation resting on poorly understood psychological primitives. The rationality heuristic in economics provides an example from social science of the potential biases arising from the extreme flexibility of optimality considerations, including selective search for confirming vidence, ex post rationalization, and the confusion of prediction with explanation. Commentators are asked to reflect on the extent to which optimality is (1) an organizing principle of nature, (2) a set of relatively unconnected techniques of science, (3) a normative principle for rational choice and social organization, (4) a metaphysical way of looking at the world, or (5) something else still.
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Alade, Oyekale Abel, Roselina Sallehuddin e Nor Haizan Mohamed Radzi. "Enhancing extreme learning machines classification with moth-flame optimization technique". Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 26, n.º 2 (1 de maio de 2022): 1027. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v26.i2.pp1027-1035.
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Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm assigns the input weights and biases in a “one-time stamp” fashion, this method makes the algorithm to be ill-conditioned and reduces its classification accuracy. The contribution of this work is the enhancement of the performance of ELM with the Moth-Flame Optimization (MFO) algorithm to improve classification accuracy. A hybrid of the Moth-Flame Optimization and Extreme Learning Machine (MFO-ELM) algorithm is implemented in MATLAB. MFO ensures a concurrent simulation of exploration and exploitation of the search space to select an optimum candidate solution. The candidate solution is reshaped into input weights and biases for ELM classification. The hybrid algorithm is validated on five life-selected datasets. The performance improvement of MFO-ELM is compared with ELM-optimized Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-ELM) and Competitive Swarm Optimization (CSO-ELM) algorithms. The improvement rates are qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated to show the improvement of MFO-ELM on ELM and the other meta-heuristic algorithms. MFO-ELM improved the accuracies of the basic ELM in all 100% of the simulations and performed better than the other meta-heuristic algorithms in 80% of the simulations. The performance of MFO-ELM is more competitive, and it is recommended for solving classification problems.
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Cerdá Suárez, Luis Manuel, Jesús Perán López e Belén Cambronero Saiz. "The Influence of Heuristic judgments in Social Media on Corporate Reputation: A Study in Spanish Leader Companies". Sustainability 12, n.º 4 (21 de fevereiro de 2020): 1640. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12041640.
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From a corporate-side perspective, the communication of reputational actions and news of companies becomes critical for success. However, in communication, business, and management studies, heuristics can be understood as simple cognitive processes that allow assessments, predictions, and decisions to be made quickly and efficiently by consumers and economic agents. This aspect can sometimes lead to cognitive biases, especially when little information is available or in situations of high uncertainty. The aim of this research is to investigate the influence of heuristic judgments in social media on corporate reputation ratings obtained in Spanish leader companies. Using data collected in Spain, this paper analyzes the influence of heuristics concerning news items on corporate reputation, measured by the Monitor Empresarial de Reputación Corporativa (MERCO) Index. The main finding of this paper is that the total number of news items has a positive effect on corporate reputation, particularly in the categories of culture-values, results/image, expansion, and sponsorship/donations. Additionally, this work serves as a repository of knowledge applicable to similar situations considering the specificities of each particular case. The importance to intervene on certain variables at different levels of managerial performance is described and implications for companies are discussed in these pages.
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M Doleys, Daniel. "The Role of Cognitive Biases in the Prescribing and Deprescribing of Opioids". Current Research in Psychology and Behavioral Science (CRPBS) 3, n.º 8 (28 de novembro de 2022): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.54026/crpbs/1074.
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The policies and guidelines which have shaped the attitude and practice relating to the use of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain have undergone remarkable changes. Recent decades have witnessed a surge, followed by a decline, and near prohibition, in the use of opioids. Cognitive biases appeared to be play an important role in how the scientific data upon which policy and guidelines are based is presented, and interpreted. These biases may have had a greater influence on policymakers than the data itself. This paper reviews data from four key areas identified as relating to the use of opioids, and the creation of guidelines including (a) the surge and decline in opioid prescribing, (b) sham distinctions, (c) reliance on the numerical pain rating (NPR) and (d) the consequences associated with the use/discontinuation of opioids. Published studies, commentaries, and guidelines were selected based on their ability to illustrate a particular bias and/or to highlight discrepancies in the scientific literature. Discrepancies and inconsistences in the presentation and interpretation of data in these areas were identified. Focused illusion, linguistic uncertainty, and heuristic failure were found to be prevalent cognitive biases. Cognitive biases appear to be influential in the making of policy and guidelines related to the sue of opioids. Overlooking these biases may result in decisions that negatively impact clinical practice and patient safety