Bibliografias temáticas / Lagged variable

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Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Lagged variable"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 4 de junho de 2021

Última modificação: 15 de fevereiro de 2022

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Artigos de revistas sobre o assunto "Lagged variable"

Keele, Luke, e Nathan J. Kelly. "Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories: The Ins and Outs of Lagged Dependent Variables". Political Analysis 14, n.º 2 (2006): 186–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpj006.

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A lagged dependent variable in an OLS regression is often used as a means of capturing dynamic effects in political processes and as a method for ridding the model of autocorrelation. But recent work contends that the lagged dependent variable specification is too problematic for use in most situations. More specifically, if residual autocorrelation is present, the lagged dependent variable causes the coefficients for explanatory variables to be biased downward. We use a Monte Carlo analysis to assess empirically how much bias is present when a lagged dependent variable is used under a wide variety of circumstances. In our analysis, we compare the performance of the lagged dependent variable model to several other time series models. We show that while the lagged dependent variable is inappropriate in some circumstances, it remains an appropriate model for the dynamic theories often tested by applied analysts. From the analysis, we develop several practical suggestions on when and how to use lagged dependent variables on the right-hand side of a model.

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Matyjaszek, Marta, Gregorio Fidalgo Valverde, Alicja Krzemień, Krzysztof Wodarski e Pedro Riesgo Fernández. "Optimizing Predictor Variables in Artificial Neural Networks When Forecasting Raw Material Prices for Energy Production". Energies 13, n.º 8 (18 de abril de 2020): 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13082017.

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This paper applies a heuristic approach to optimize the predictor variables in artificial neural networks when forecasting raw material prices for energy production (coking coal, natural gas, crude oil and coal) to achieve a better forecast. Two goals are (1) to determine the optimum number of time-delayed terms or past values forming the lagged variables and (2) to improve the forecast accuracy by adding intrinsic signals to the lagged variables. The conclusions clearly are in opposition to the actual scientific literature: when addressing the lagged variable size, the results do not confirm relationships among their size, representativeness and estimation accuracy. It is also possible to verify an important effect of the results on the lagged variable size. Finally, adding the order in the time series of the lagged variables to form the predictor variables improves the forecast accuracy in most cases.

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Grubb, David, e James Symons. "Bias in Regressions With a Lagged Dependent Variable". Econometric Theory 3, n.º 3 (junho de 1987): 371–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466600010458.

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We give an expression to order O(T-1), where T is the sample size, for bias to the estimated coefficient on a lagged dependent variable when all other regressors are exogenous. The general expression is a nonlinear function of the coefficient on the lagged dependent variable, the autoregressive structure of the exogenous variables, and the coefficients on the exogenous variables. The maximum bias that can arise is a linear function of the number of exogenous regressors in the estimating equation.

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Višić, Josipa, e Blanka Škrabić Perić. "The determinants of value of incoming cross-border mergers & acquisitions in European transition countries". Communist and Post-Communist Studies 44, n.º 3 (10 de agosto de 2011): 173–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2011.07.004.

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This research aims to determine variables that affect the aggregate value of incoming cross-border M&As in European transitional countries. Dynamic panel models have been estimated using Arellano and Bond GMM estimator for period between year 1994 and 2008. The ratio of the total value of cross-border M&A to GDP of the country is the dependent variable. Independent variables include following indicators: lagged value of cross-border M&A to GDP, lagged GDP per capita, lagged GDP growth, inflation, interest rate spread, lagged private credit to GDP ratio, market capitalization to GDP ratio, lagged rule of law and lagged control of corruption.

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Wirjanto, Tony S., e Robert A. Amano. "Nonstationary regression models with a lagged dependent variable". Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 25, n.º 7 (janeiro de 1996): 1489–503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610929608831780.

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Marsh, Patrick. "Constructing Optimal tests on a Lagged dependent variable". Journal of Time Series Analysis 28, n.º 5 (setembro de 2007): 723–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2007.00536.x.

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Hamid, Kashif, Zahid Hussain e Muhammad Mudasar Ghafoor. "Abnormal Returns, Corporate Financial Policies and the Dynamics of Leverage: Empirical Evidence from Non-Financial Sector of Pakistan". Review of Economics and Development Studies 6, n.º 1 (31 de março de 2020): 153–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/reads.v6i1.193.

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The aim of this study is to evaluate impact of corporate financial policies and the dynamics of leverage on financial performance of non-financial sector in Pakistan. In this study we used the data from Fertilizer, Chemical and Cement sector for the period 2008-2017. Abnormal return has been taken as dependent variable and Change in cash to lagged market values, Change in EBIT to lagged market values, Change in dividend to lagged market value, Net Financing to lagged market value, Lagged cash values to lagged market values, Lagged cash values to lagged market values crossed by change in cash to lagged market value, Change in total assets net of cash to lagged market values, Change in interest to lagged market values, Operating leverage, Financial leverage, Total leverage, Leverage ratio, Leverage ratio to change in cash crossed by lagged market values and WACC are taken as explanatory variables. OLS, Fixed effect and Random effect models has been used to express the impact of these variables on return. Hence it is concluded that leverage dynamics are significant contributors in designing the corporate financial policies. Corporate financial policies have significant impact on the financial performance of the non-financial sector of Pakistan.

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Pugh, Sierra, Matthew J. Heaton, Jeff Svedin e Neil Hansen. "Spatiotemporal Lagged Models for Variable Rate Irrigation in Agriculture". Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 24, n.º 4 (3 de maio de 2019): 634–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13253-019-00365-3.

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Maeshiro, Asatoshi. "Teaching Regressions with a Lagged Dependent Variable and Autocorrelated Disturbances". Journal of Economic Education 27, n.º 1 (janeiro de 1996): 72–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00220485.1996.10844896.

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Kiviet, Jan F., e Garry D. A. Phillips. "Alternative Bias Approximations in Regressions with a Lagged-Dependent Variable". Econometric Theory 9, n.º 1 (janeiro de 1993): 62–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466600007337.

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The small sample bias of the least-squares coefficient estimator is examined in the dynamic multiple linear regression model with normally distributed whitenoise disturbances and an arbitrary number of regressors which are all exogenous except for the one-period lagged-dependent variable. We employ large sample (T → ∞) and small disturbance (σ → 0) asymptotic theory and derive and compare expressions to O(T−1) and to O(σ2), respectively, for the bias in the least-squares coefficient vector. In some simulations and for an empirical example, we examine the mean (squared) error of these expressions and of corrected estimation procedures that yield estimates that are unbiased to O(T−l) and to O(σ2), respectively. The large sample approach proves to be superior, easily applicable, and capable of generating more efficient and less biased estimators.

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Mais fontes

Teses / dissertações sobre o assunto "Lagged variable"

Gomes, Leonaldo da Silva. "Redes Neurais Aplicadas Ã InferÃncia dos Sinais de Controle de Dosagem de Coagulantes em uma ETA por FiltraÃÃo RÃpida". Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2012. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=8105.

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Considerando a importÃncia do controle da coagulaÃÃo quÃmica para o processo de tratamento de Ãgua por filtraÃÃo rÃpida, esta dissertaÃÃo propÃe a aplicaÃÃo de redes neurais artificiais para inferÃncia dos sinais de controle de dosagem de coagulantes principal e auxiliar, no processo de coagulaÃÃo quÃmica em uma estaÃÃo de tratamento de Ãgua por filtraÃÃo rÃpida. Para tanto, foi feito uma anÃlise comparativa da aplicaÃÃo de modelos baseados em redes neurais do tipo: alimentada adiante focada atrasada no tempo (FTLFN); alimentada adiante atrasada no tempo distribuÃda (DTLFN); recorrente de Elman (ERN) e auto-regressiva nÃo-linear com entradas exÃgenas (NARX). Da anÃlise comparativa, o modelo baseado em redes NARX apresentou melhores resultados, evidenciando o potencial do modelo para uso em casos reais, o que contribuirÃ para a viabilizaÃÃo de projetos desta natureza em estaÃÃes de tratamento de Ãgua de pequeno porte.
Considering the importance of the chemical coagulation control for the water treatment by direct filtration, this work proposes the application of artificial neural networks for inference of dosage control signals of principal and auxiliary coagulant, in the chemical coagulation process in a water treatment plant by direct filtration. To that end, was made a comparative analysis of the application of models based on neural networks, such as: Focused Time Lagged Feedforward Network (FTLFN); Distributed Time Lagged Feedforward Network (DTLFN); Elman Recurrent Network (ERN) and Non-linear Autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX). From the comparative analysis, the model based on NARX networks showed better results, demonstrating the potential of the model for use in real cases, which will contribute to the viability of projects of this nature in small size water treatment plants.

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Lundin, Ida. "En kvantitativ studie om små och medelstora företags jobbskapande i hotellbranschen". Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Avdelningen för ekonomivetenskap och juridik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34484.

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Små och medelstora företag är betydelsefulla för en växande ekonomi och utgör 99 % av samtliga företag i Sverige. Nya idéer och innovationer skapas ofta av småföretag som växer snabbt vilket ger incitament till att skapa en miljö som bidrar till att små och medelstora företag kan driva, innovera och skapa nödvändiga jobb. Små och medelstora företag spelar därför en betydande roll för sysselsättningen och ekonomin som helhet vilket gör studier på detta område relevant. Små och medelstora företag står inför ett flertal svårigheter jämfört med större företag. En faktor som påverkar företagens möjlighet till att växa är en begränsad tillgång till finansiering. Större företag är mer benägna att låna pengar vilket också denresursbaserade teorin förutspår. Tillgång till finansiering kan ses som en konkurrensfördel och leder till fler investeringar vilket stimulerar tillväxten och därmed sysselsättningen.Resursbaserade teorin utgår från konkurrenskraftiga resurser hos företag och kommer att i denna studie att användas till att identifiera företagsspecifika faktorer som på något sätt kan förklara sysselsättningen hos små och medelstora företag. Studien inriktar sig på hotellbranschen med restaurangverksamhet på den svenska marknaden. I uppsatsen undersöksdet hur skuldsättningsgraden, tillväxten, storleken, ålder och fördröjd variabel av antal anställda påverkar antalet anställda. Studien baseras på en kvantitativ undersökning med deduktivt angreppssätt över tidsperioden 2008 till 2016. Resultatet redovisas i en univariat analys i form av deskriptiv statistik, bivariat analys bestående av en korrelationsanalys samt en multivariat analys i form av en regressionsanalys. Det empiriska resultatet indikerar på att större företag med högre skuldsättningsgrad är mer benägna att anställda fler. En slutsats är att tillgången till ekonomiska resurser ger företagen konkurrensfördelar, fler möjligheter att överleva, tillväxt och ökad efterfråga på arbetskraft.
Small and medium-sized enterprise are important for a growing economy and make up 99% of all companies in Sweden. New ideas and innovations are often created by small businesses that grow fast, which gives incentives to create a platform that helps small and medium-sized enterprises drive, innovate and create necessary jobs. Small and medium-sized enterprisestherefore play a significant role in employment and the economy as a whole, which makes studies in this area relevant. The companies face a number of difficulties compared with larger companies. A factor that affect small and medium-sized enterprises ability to grow is a limited access to funding. Larger companies are more likely to borrow money, which also predicts the resource-based theory. Access to finance can be seen as a competitive advantageand leads to more investment, stimulating growth and hence employment.Based on the resource-based theory of competitiveness of a company, this study will be used to identify company specific factors that in some way can explain the employment of small and medium-sized enterprises. The study focuses on the hotel industry with restaurant activities in the Swedish market. The paper examines how debt, growth, size, age and lagged variable of the number of employees affects the number of employees. The study is based ona quantitative study with a deductive approach over the period 2008 to 2016. The result is presented in a univariate analysis in the form of descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis consisting of a correlation analysis and a multivariate analysis in the form of a regression analysis. The empirical result indicates that larger companies with higher debt ratios are more likely to employ more. One conclusion is that access to financial resources gives businesses competitive advantages, more opportunities for survival, growth and increased demand for labor.

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Al-Hares, Osama M. "Investigating the role of lead and lagged accounting variables in valuation models". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.632843.

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This study is an empirical attempt to investigate the theoretical and empirical role of lagged and lead accounting variables in cross-sectional valuation models. We evaluate the association between accounting variables (including earnings, book value, RD expenditures, advertising expenditures, dividends and capital contributions) and firm market value. The models for this study are derived from systems of linear information dynamics. Three samples of the US, the UK, and Jordanian firms are utilised to test the hypotheses. Stark (1999) presents evidence in the UK that lagged and lead variables can contribute in a significant way to increasing the explanatory power in cross-sectional valuation models. In the US, some recent literature show that not only current accounting variables are valuation relevant, but also the past time series of accounting variables are generally relevant for valuing firms (e.g. Bar-Yosef, Callen and Livnat (1996), Dechow, Hutton and Sloan (1998), Stark (1999), and Morel (1999)). On the other hand, previous research (e.g. Hand and Landsman (1999), and Stark (1999» uses next period's actual earnings as a proxy for omitted variables 'other information'. They find that next year's (lead) earnings captures the impact of valuation relevant 'other information' in the system of linear information dynamics and that, indeed, the valuation relevance of 'other information' is potentially substantial. These arguments motivate the investigation of the valuation relevance of lagged and lead accounting variables in cross-sectional valuation models. We primarily add in lead accounting variables as an attempt to control for the effects of 'other information'. We develop and discuss five different specifications (models) to investigate the value relevance of lagged and lead accounting variables. The valuation models are estimated using four different deflators found in prior literature on empirical valuation models (closing book value, number of shares, opening market value and sales). In market-based accounting research, deflation is generally regarded as an effective tool for mitigating heteroscedasticity and cross-sectional scale differences. The Data are extracted for US firms from the COMPUST A T for the period 1985 to 1999; for UK firms from the Datastream for the period 1990 to 1999; and from the Shareholders Annual Guides and Monthly Statistical Bulletins for Jordanian firms for the period 1985 to 1999. The study utilises all non-financial com~anies over the study period for which appropriate data are available for the necessary tests. The R and the adjusted R2 are used in this study for the comparison of the regression results under alternative specifications of the independent variables in the models. F tests on the increase in R2 are constructed to test the significance of the incrementally explanatory power between different specifications of valuation models employed. We use White's (1980) consistent standard error and covariance estimates for mitigating heteroscedasticity in calculating t-statistics. The results provide evidence on the empirical role of lagged and lead accounting variables in valuation models. This result is unaffected when proxies for 'other information' are included in the model. As a consequence, current, lagged and lead accounting variables included in our valuation model appear to be capturing some, but not all, of 'other information' when that variable is omitted. And hence, the selection of current, lagged, and lead accounting variables employed in this study is not complete and the variable 'other information' still needs further investigation. The results also indicate that, on average, RD expenditures and advertising expenditures create intangible assets for US firms. Similar evidence exists in the UK market regarding RD expenditures. The evidence in this research concerning the value relevance of lagged and lead accounting variables should aid future researchers in this area. As another perspective, this study will be helpful in diminishing the gaps and the controversies existing in the literature of valuation models.

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Dezhbakhsh, Hashem. "Alternative tests for serial correlation in linear models with lagged dependent variables". The Ohio State University, 1989. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1279570294.

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Salami, Bruna. "Dinâmica do componente arbóreo em um fragmento de Floresta Ombrófila Mista Montana em Lages, SC". Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, 2013. http://tede.udesc.br/handle/handle/1914.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:12:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PGEF13MA002.pdf: 1189364 bytes, checksum: 02eb7d4aa15b616a2256de136a1b1c23 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-09
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The present study aimed to evaluate the community dynamics of tree species in a fragment of Montane Araucaria Forest, in the municipality of Lages, SC, over a period of four years (2008-2012). For this, were ploted 50, 10x20m, permanent plots was performed the environmental characterization (terrain, soils and canopy cover), obtained the spatial coordinates, determined the regeneration guilds [Pioneer (P), Climax Light Demanding (CEL) and Climax Shade Tolerant (CTS)] and calculated dynamics rates (mortality, recruitment, loss and gain in basal area, turnover and net change in abundance and basal area) of all surveyed species (diameter at breast height ≥ 5cm). The existence of significant association between regeneration guilds and dynamic rates was verified by qui-square tests, applied to contingency tables. Changes in relative participation of regeneration guilds between years were analyzed using proportion tests. The spatial structuration of dynamics rates was evaluated through I Moran correlograms and the influence of environmental variables analyzed through regression trees. In 2008, 84 species were found (P: 9, CLD: 64 and CST: 11), with a density of 1.841 ind.ha-1 and basal area of 36.17 m².ha-1. In 2012, 83 species (P: 9, CLD: 63 and CST: 11), with a density of 1.882 ind.ha-1 and basal area of 39.17 m².ha-1 were observed. The dynamics rates did not demonstrated spatial autocorrelation. The gain and turnover in basal area rates were higher, respectively, in locations with lower values of canopy cover (<80.63%) and with higher values of sum of base in the soil (≥61.77%). No significant association between the dynamics patterns and regeneration guilds was observed. The relative participation of guilds stayed constant during the evaluated period, with a low floristic substitution. Thus, it is possible to conclude that, in general, the dynamics occurred randomly in the space, and the forest fragment is in the process of structural instability and floristic-successional stability
O presente estudo teve como principal objetivo avaliar a dinâmica da comunidade de espécies arbóreas, em um fragmento de Floresta Ombrófila Mista Montana, no Município de Lages, SC, ao longo de um período de quatro anos (2008-2012). Para isto, foram alocadas 50 parcelas permanentes, de 10x20m, onde foram realizadas a caracterização ambiental (relevo, solos e cobertura do dossel), obtidas as coordenadas espaciais, determinadas as guildas de regeneração [Pioneiras (P), Climácicas Exigentes em Luz (CEL) e Climácicas Tolerantes ao Sombreamento (CTS)] e calculadas as taxas de dinâmica (mortalidade, recrutamento, ganho e perda em área basal, rotatividade e mudança liquida em abundância e área basal) de todas as espécies amostradas (diâmetro na altura do peito ≥ 5cm). A existência de associação significativa entre guildas de regeneração e padrões de dinâmica foi verificada por meio de testes de qui-quadrado, aplicados a tabelas de contingência. Mudanças das participações relativas das guildas de regeneração entre os anos foram analisadas por meio de testes de proporção. A estruturação espacial das taxas de dinâmica foi avaliada por meio de correlogramas de I de Moran e a influência dos fatores ambientais verificada através de árvores de regressão. No ano 2008 foram verificadas 84 espécies (P: 9, CEL: 64 e CTS: 11), possuindo uma densidade de 1.841 ind.ha-1 e área basal de 36,17m2.ha-1. No ano de 2012, verificou-se 83 espécies (P: 9, CEL: 63 e CTS: 11), com densidade de 1.882 ind.ha-1 e área basal de 39,17m2.ha-1. As taxas de dinâmica não apresentaram autocorrelação espacial. As taxas de ganho e rotatividade em área basal foram maiores, respectivamente, nos locais com menores valores de cobertura do dossel (<80,63%) e com maiores valores de soma de base no solo (≥61,77%). Não foi verificada associação significativa entre os padrões de dinâmica observados e guildas de regeneração. A participação relativa das guildas permaneceu constante durante o período avaliado, com uma baixa substituição florística. Desta forma, conclui-se que, de modo geral, a dinâmica ocorreu de forma espacialmente aleatória e o fragmento florestal encontra-se em fase de instabilidade estrutural e estabilidade florística-sucessional

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Koirala, Nischal. "Access Blood Flow Measurement Using Angiography". Cleveland State University / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=csu153796812445051.

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Livros sobre o assunto "Lagged variable"

Grubb, David B. Bias in regressions with a lagged dependant variable. London: University College, 1985.

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Kaboudan, Mak. Computational Spatiotemporal Modeling of Southern California Home Prices. Editado por Shu-Heng Chen, Mak Kaboudan e Ye-Rong Du. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199844371.013.13.

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Average quarterly price changes in six contiguous southern California cities are obtained and used, first, to determine if price changes in contiguous cities are spatiotemporally contagious, then to forecast each city’s average prices for four quarters (or one year, 2014). In order to capture the contagious effects, a spatiotemporal contagion response measure is proposed and computed. The measure quantifies the responsiveness of residential home-price changes in one location (or city) to lagged price changes in another location. Average home characteristics (such as square footage and number of bedrooms), as well as lagged average quarterly mortgage rates, lagged average quarterly unemployment rates, and lagged average quarterly price changes of all locations, are input variables used to estimate the response measures and produce price forecasts. Models and forecasts are obtained first using genetic programming then compared to outcomes obtained using linear regressions.

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Kessler, Ronald C. Trauma and PTSD in the United States. Editado por Charles B. Nemeroff e Charles R. Marmar. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780190259440.003.0007.

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Trauma and PTSD in the United States reviews epidemiological data on the prevalence and correlates of trauma and PTSD in the United States. The chapter begins by examining the comparative prevalence, age-of-onset distributions, and socio-demographic distributions of a wide range of specific traumatic life experiences. Data on the clustering and time-lagged associations among these different types of traumas are then considered. The chapter then reviews evidence on the absolute and relative risks of PTSD and the socio-demographic predictors of PTSD. Data are then reviewed on the course of PTSD and the associations of trauma type and socio-demographic variables with the course of PTSD.

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Below, Amy. Latin American Foreign Policy. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.253.

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Latin American foreign policy has drawn the attention of scholars since the 1960s. Foreign policy–related literature began to surge in the 1980s and 1990s, with a focus on both economic and political development. As development in the region lagged behind that of its northern neighbors, Latin American had to rely on foreign aid, largely from the United States. In addition to foreign aid, two of the most prevalent topics discussed in the literature are trade/economic liberalization and regional economic integration (for example, Mercosur and NAFTA). During and after the Cold War, Latin America played a strategic foreign policy role as it became the object of a rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union hoping to expand their power and/or contain that of the other. This role was also explored in a considerably larger body of research, along with the decision of Latin American nations to diversify their foreign relations in the post–Cold War era. Furthermore, scholars have analyzed different regions/countries that have become new and/or expanded targets of Latin American foreign policy, including the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Despite the substantial amount of scholarship that has accumulated over the years, a unified theory of Latin American foreign policy remains elusive. Future research should therefore focus on the development of a theory that incorporates the multiple explanatory variables that influence foreign policy formulation and takes into account their relative importance and the effects on each other.

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Capítulos de livros sobre o assunto "Lagged variable"

Meuleman, Wouter, Monique C. M. Welten e Fons J. Verbeek. "Construction of Correlation Networks with Explicit Time-Slices Using Time-Lagged, Variable Interval Standard and Partial Correlation Coefficients". In Computational Life Sciences II, 236–46. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/11875741_23.

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Ward, Michael D., e Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Spatially Lagged Dependent Variables". In Spatial Regression Models, 48–74. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks California 91320: SAGE Publications, Inc., 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781071802588.n8.

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Ozment, John. "Estimating Lagged and Cumulative Effects of Customer Service Variables in the Marketing Mix". In Proceedings of the 1989 Academy of Marketing Science (AMS) Annual Conference, 643–47. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17055-8_131.

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Ploberger, Werner, Walter Krämer e Raimund Alt. "A Modification of the CUSUM Test in the Linear Regression Model with Lagged Dependent Variables". In Econometrics of Structural Change, 1–11. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48412-4_1.

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Giles, David E. A., e Murray Beattie. "Autocorrelation pre-test estimation in models with a lagged dependent variable". In Specification Analysis in the Linear Model, 99–116. Routledge, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351140683-7.

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van den Dool, Huug. "Teleconnections". In Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction. Oxford University Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199202782.003.0011.

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Mankind has long been intrigued by the possibility that weather in one location is related to weather somewhere else, especially somewhere very far away. The fascination may be mostly related to possible predictions that could be based on such relationships. The severe weather that harmed the British Army in the Crimea in November 1854 (Lindgrén and Neumann 1980) was due to a weather system moving across Europe, suggesting it could have been anticipated from observations upstream. It took analyses of many surface weathermaps, an activity starting around 1850, to see how weather systems have certain horizontal dimensions, thousands of kilometers in fact, and move around in semisystematic ways. It thus followed that, in a transient sense, the weather at two places can be related, and in a time-lagged sense that weather observed at one (or more) places serves as a predictor for weather at other locations. The other reason for fascination with teleconnection might be called “system analysis”. The idea that given an impulse at some location (“input”) a reaction can be expected thousands of miles away (the “output”) through a chain of events, is intriguing and should tell us about the workings of the system. It is akin to an engineer testing electronic equipment. Unfortunately, Nature is not a laboratory experiment where we can organize these impulses. Only by systematically observing what Nature presents us with, may we dare to search for teleconnections in some aggregate way. The word teleconnection suggests a connection at long distance, but a stricter definition requires some thought and pruning down of endless possibilities. We need to make choices about (a) simultaneous vs time-lagged teleconnections, (b) correlations vs other measures of “connection”, (c) transient vs standing teleconnections, (d) teleconnections in filtered data (e.g. seasonal means) vs unfiltered instantaneous (e.g. daily) data, and (e) one or more variables. On (a), (b) and (e) our choice in this chapter is simultaneous, use of linear correlation (except in section 4.3 where other measures of teleconnection are discussed), and a single variable respectively. On possibilities (c) and (d) we keep our options open.

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"Dummy variables and lagged values". In Making History Count, 280–99. Cambridge University Press, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781139164832.011.

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"Univariate Lagged Variables Autoregressive Models". In Panel Data Analysis Using EViews, 339–95. Chichester, United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118715543.ch12.

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"Multivariate Lagged Variables Autoregressive Models". In Panel Data Analysis Using EViews, 396–440. Chichester, United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118715543.ch13.

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Arellano, Manuel. "Models with Both Strictly Exogenous and Lagged Dependent Variables". In Panel Data Econometrics, 129–42. Oxford University Press, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0199245282.003.0007.

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Trabalhos de conferências sobre o assunto "Lagged variable"

Plagge, Amanda M., Lee Jestings e Brenden P. Epps. "Next-Generation Hydrokinetic Power Take-Off via a Novel Variable-Stroke Hydraulic System". In ASME 2014 33rd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2014-24095.

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Hydrokinetic power generation has the potential to supply nearly ten percent of the United States annual energy demand. However, the hydrokinetic generation has lagged behind other renewable energy technologies, and many engineering challenges remain. Here, we consider the impacts of using a hydraulic power transfer system for hydrokinetic power generation. The incorporation of hydraulic power transfer into hydrokinetic systems has the potential to increase durability, reduce required maintenance, and increase power-to-weight ratio, all of which would lower the overall levelized cost of energy (LCOE). In the proposed system, patented low friction, variable-stroke hydraulic pump and motor pairs would allow energy to be harvested efficiently throughout the full range of water velocities in either tidal or riverine flows and with any type of rotary prime mover. A full system characterization is provided, along with a calculation of expected LCOE and a considered analysis of the applicability of hydraulic PTO systems as a way to advance commercial hydrokinetic power generation.

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Losi, Enzo, Mauro Venturini e Lucrezia Manservigi. "Autoregressive Bayesian Hierarchical Model to Predict Gas Turbine Degradation". In ASME Turbo Expo 2020: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2020-16330.

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Abstract Gas turbine industry currently implements prognostic and health management systems as a fundamental task to predict the deteriorated characteristics of a gas turbine at future states and in turn plan maintenance actions. Thus, economic losses caused by system breakdowns and unnecessary repair actions can be reduced. In this work, a data-driven Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) is implemented by means of an innovative autoregressive structure to predict gas turbine progressive deterioration. The novel autoregressive model provides an estimate of the output variable which depends on time and its previous values. In such a model, lagged values of the output are used as predictor variables. The autoregressive BHM, called ARBHM in this paper, is applied to highly heterogeneous field data taken from the literature, characterized by different degradation rates and referred to the power output of a large-size heavy duty gas turbine. The ARBHM tested in this paper includes up to a third-order lag and is compared to a BHM that only uses time as the regression variable. The comparison is carried out by performing both single-step prediction and multi-step prediction of power output. The results demonstrate that, in the considered degradation scenarios, the innovative ARBHM is usually preferable to BHM, since prediction errors decrease up to 2.0 % in the best case.

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Pa´scoa, J. C., A. C. Mendes e L. M. C. Gato. "Redesigning Annular Turbine Blade Rows Using a Viscous-Inviscid Inverse Design Method". In ASME Turbo Expo 2008: Power for Land, Sea, and Air. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2008-50313.

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This paper presents the results of the aerodynamic redesign of an annular turbine blade row. The inverse method herein applied is an extension to 3D of an iterative inverse design method based on the imposition of the blade load, thickness distribution and stacking line. We define a mass-averaged mean tangential velocity over one blade pitch, ru¯θ, as the main design variable, since its derivative is related to the aerodynamic load. A time-lagged formulation for the 3D camber surface generator is given in order to include the blade thickness distribution into the design algorithm. The hybrid viscous-inviscid design code comprises three main components: the blade update algorithm; a fast inviscid 3D Euler code; and a viscous analysis code. The blade geometry and flow conditions are typical of LP turbine nozzle guide vanes. The design method will demonstrate its ability to redesign blade rows that achieve lower flow losses and a more uniform exit flow angle distribution. The performance of the new blades is checked by means of a Navier-Stokes computation using the κ–ε turbulence model. The presented results show a minor decrease in the losses and a better redistribution of the exit flow angle.

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ALEKNEVIČIENĖ, Vilija, e Asta BENDORAITYTĖ. "LONG-TERM DRIVERS OF WHEAT AND MAIZE COMMODITIES PRICES". In Rural Development 2015. Aleksandras Stulginskis University, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/rd.2015.129.

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In the last decades prices of agro-food commodities have a tendency of explosive growth. This increase quite usually is related with biofuels development. However, the prices of commodities are influenced by the set of different variables, i.e. supply and demand factors. In order to provide appropriate policy recommendations for agro-culture there is a need to evaluate the factors and their impact on agro-food commodities. This paper uses the multi regression model in order to analyze long-term drivers of annual world wheat and maize commodities prices. Analysis involves both demand (direct: biofuels production, commodities stock in the end of the period; indirect: the exchange rate, the interest rate, gross domestic product) and supply (price of crude oil) factors. The empirical results indicate that the main price drivers of wheat are crude oil prices, exchange rate and stock of wheat lagged one period. While the main maize price drivers are crude oil price and stock of maize lagged one period.

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Zhang, Zhengyu, Shuming Bao e Pingfang Zhu. "GMM and 2SLS estimation of panel data models with spatially lagged dependent variables and spatially correlated error components". In Geoinformatics 2007, editado por Jingming Chen e Yingxia Pu. SPIE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.761375.

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Pa´scoa, Jose´ C., e Anto´nio C. Mendes. "Turbine Blade Duty Re-Design by Controlling Lean and Sweep Using an Innovative Iterative Inverse Design Method". In ASME Turbo Expo 2006: Power for Land, Sea, and Air. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2006-90266.

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Inverse methods able to work in the transonic regime have for a long time been the weak part in the inverse method universe, albeit most of current gas turbines work in this regime. The present iterative inverse method is based on a Finite Volume time-marching scheme that is able to accurately compute the flowfield inside turbomachinery passages. In our design method we prescribe the acrodynamic load and blade thickness. Imposition of these variables precludes any existence and uniqueness problems and enables us to incorporate information regarding thermal and mechanical stresses in the first design stages. The method herein presented starts with an analysis of the flow in an initial geometry that is afterward adjusted by a modification in camber line. A new time-lagged formulation for the camber line generator will be presented. In order to design in three-dimensions a flexible stacking line generator will be introduced, as a mean to independently control sweep and lean for the blades. The results presented illustrate how an annular turbine cascade can be re-designed, with the present method, for better blade performance.

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Han, Kun-Young, e Hee-Hyol Lee. "Decouple PID control of ultra-compact binary power generation plant considering lager number of manipulated variables". In 2014 IEEE 23rd International Symposium on Industrial Electronics (ISIE). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isie.2014.6864591.

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Pişkin, Erhan. "The Matter of Trade Survival". In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01879.

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Besedes and Prusa (2006a-b) reveal that international trade relationships are often very short-lived contrary to previously thoughts. In line with this unexpected result, this study provides a statistical description and empirical analysis of the duration of Turkish exports. Specifically, Kaplan-Meier survival function is used to estimate the survival of trade flows over time and also a regression analysis using discrete-time duration models which allow us to properly control for unobserved heterogeneity and the presence of many tied duration times is used to explore the impact of key variables on hazard rates of export flows. The detailed trade data reported by BACI-CEPII are employed to analyze Turkey's export to European Union countries from 1998 to 2013 according to the 6-digit Harmonized system. Results obtained from the analysis of descriptive statistics suggest that the duration of Turkey’s export to European Union countries is short-lived. The median and mean duration of Turkey's exports are merely two years and 4.26, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival functions show that all survival curves are downward sloping with decreasing rate and about 40% of export relationships fails in the first year. The results of the discrete-time duration models indicate that product-market diversification, common language, total exports, initial value, importer GDP and lagged duration have a strong negative impact on the hazard rates of export flows. Whereas distance, common border and difference in GDP per capita have a positive effect on the hazard rates of export flows.

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Sun, Canhui, Wei Chen e Jun Geng. "Experimental Study on Critical Heat Flux of In-Vessel Retention for Large Nuclear Reactor". In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-67066.

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During a rare accident involving severe core damage in a nuclear power plant, if the molten core material can be contained within the boundary of the reactor vessel, the severity of the accident is expected to be greatly reduced. Therefore, the severe accident management strategy based on in-vessel retention (IVR) of molten core debris is highly desirable, and has been adopted by advanced reactor designs such as AP1000, APR1400 and CAP1400. Previous studies assumed a fully developed molten pool, where molten metal and molten oxides separated, and liquid metal form a layer on the top of the oxidic pool. The limiting failure mechanism of the lower head is related to occurrence of boiling crisis on the outer surface of the vessel. The boiling crisis would occur, when the local heat flux through the vessel wall exceeds the critical heat flux value. The evaluation of thermal regime is then done by comparing the heat flux distribution from the molten corium pool and the CHF variation on the outer wall in order to define the available margins to CHF. When a larger power nuclear reactor is designed, the margin of the IVR could be decreased. Therefore, the study on critical heat flux enhancement for lager nuclear reactor is necessary. In this study, an experimental facility is conducted to analysis the critical heat flux mechanism and enhancement for lager power nuclear reactor. The facility includes two loops, one is primary loop, and the other is auxiliary loop which could import injection flow in the primary loop. The test section is an inclined downward heated rectangular channel, and the angle is variable. A series of critical heat flux experiments are conducted in this facility. The results are compared with previous experiment results and calculation correlation in the large nuclear reactor operating conditions.

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