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Artigos de revistas sobre o tema "Ocean circulation Mathematical models"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 4 de junho de 2021

Última modificação: 21 de fevereiro de 2023

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1

Koutitas, Christopher, and Maria Gousidou-Koutita. "A comparative study of three mathematical models for wind-generated circulation in coastal areas." Coastal Engineering 10, no. 2 (July 1986): 127–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0378-3839(86)90013-x.

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Lucas, Carine, Madalina Petcu, and Antoine Rousseau. "Quasi-hydrostatic primitive equations for ocean global circulation models." Chinese Annals of Mathematics, Series B 31, no. 6 (October 22, 2010): 939–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11401-010-0611-6.

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Qiao, Fangli, Yeli Yuan, Jia Deng, Dejun Dai, and Zhenya Song. "Wave–turbulence interaction-induced vertical mixing and its effects in ocean and climate models." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 374, no. 2065 (April 13, 2016): 20150201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0201.

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Heated from above, the oceans are stably stratified. Therefore, the performance of general ocean circulation models and climate studies through coupled atmosphere–ocean models depends critically on vertical mixing of energy and momentum in the water column. Many of the traditional general circulation models are based on total kinetic energy (TKE), in which the roles of waves are averaged out. Although theoretical calculations suggest that waves could greatly enhance coexisting turbulence, no field measurements on turbulence have ever validated this mechanism directly. To address this problem,

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Belyaev, K. P., A. A. Kuleshov, I. N. Smirnov, and C. A. S. Tanajura. "Comparison of Data Assimilation Methods in Hydrodynamics Ocean Circulation Models." Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations 11, no. 4 (July 2019): 564–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s2070048219040045.

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Zanna, Laure, and Eli Tziperman. "Optimal Surface Excitation of the Thermohaline Circulation." Journal of Physical Oceanography 38, no. 8 (August 1, 2008): 1820–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jpo3752.1.

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Abstract The amplification of thermohaline circulation (THC) anomalies resulting from heat and freshwater forcing at the ocean surface is investigated in a zonally averaged coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Optimal initial conditions of surface temperature and salinity leading to the largest THC growth are computed, and so are the structures of stochastic surface temperature and salinity forcing that excite maximum THC variance (stochastic optimals). When the THC amplitude is defined as its sum of squares (equivalent to using the standard L2 norm), the nonnormal linearized dynamics lead to an am

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Janecki, Maciej, Dawid Dybowski, Jaromir Jakacki, Artur Nowicki, and Lidia Dzierzbicka-Glowacka. "The Use of Satellite Data to Determine the Changes of Hydrodynamic Parameters in the Gulf of Gdańsk via EcoFish Model." Remote Sensing 13, no. 18 (September 8, 2021): 3572. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13183572.

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Using mathematical models alone to describe the changes in the parameters characterizing the analyzed reservoir may be insufficient due to the complexity of ocean circulation. One of the ways to improve the accuracy of models is to use data assimilation based on remote sensing methods. In this study, we tested the EcoFish numerical model that was developed for the Gulf of Gdańsk area, under the FindFish Knowledge Transfer Platform. In order to improve the model results and map local phenomena occurring in the studied water, which would be difficult to simulate using only mathematical equations

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Saenz, Juan A., Qingshan Chen, and Todd Ringler. "Prognostic Residual Mean Flow in an Ocean General Circulation Model and its Relation to Prognostic Eulerian Mean Flow." Journal of Physical Oceanography 45, no. 9 (September 2015): 2247–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-15-0024.1.

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AbstractRecent work has shown that taking the thickness-weighted average (TWA) of the Boussinesq equations in buoyancy coordinates results in exact equations governing the prognostic residual mean flow where eddy–mean flow interactions appear in the horizontal momentum equations as the divergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux tensor (EPFT). It has been proposed that, given the mathematical tractability of the TWA equations, the physical interpretation of the EPFT, and its relation to potential vorticity fluxes, the TWA is an appropriate framework for modeling ocean circulation with parameterized e

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8

Thompson, Andrew F. "The atmospheric ocean: eddies and jets in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 366, no. 1885 (September 25, 2008): 4529–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0196.

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Although the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the longest and the strongest oceanic current on the Earth and is the primary means of inter-basin exchange, it remains one of the most poorly represented components of global climate models. Accurately describing the circulation of the ACC is made difficult owing to the prominent role that mesoscale eddies and jets, oceanic equivalents of atmospheric storms and storm tracks, have in setting the density structure and transport properties of the current. The successes and limitations of different representations of eddy processes in models of

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Belyaev, Konstantin P., and Clemente A. S. Tanajura. "On the correction of perturbations due to data assimilation in ocean circulation models." Applied Mathematical Modelling 29, no. 7 (July 2005): 690–709. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2004.10.001.

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Hogg, Andrew McC, and David R. Munday. "Does the sensitivity of Southern Ocean circulation depend upon bathymetric details?" Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2019 (July 13, 2014): 20130050. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0050.

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The response of the major ocean currents to changes in wind stress forcing is investigated with a series of idealized, but eddy-permitting, model simulations. Previously, ostensibly similar models have shown considerable variation in the oceanic response to changing wind stress forcing. Here, it is shown that a major reason for these differences in model sensitivity is subtle modification of the idealized bathymetry. The key bathymetric parameter is the extent to which the strong eddy field generated in the circumpolar current can interact with the bottom water formation process. The addition

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Bryden, Harry L., Carol Robinson, and Gwyn Griffiths. "Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 370, no. 1980 (December 13, 2012): 5461–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0397.

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Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observ

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12

Dyke, P. P. G. "Water circulation in the Firth of Forth, Scotland." Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. Section B. Biological Sciences 93, no. 3-4 (1987): 273–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269727000006734.

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SynopsisThe Firth of Forth, in terms of physical oceanography, is part of the North Sea. The general circulation pattern in the firth must be regarded as largely speculative. There have been insufficient measurements of insufficient quality, and what evidence exists leads to the view that what circulation there is, is sluggish and varies from season to season and from year to year.A description is given of the three principal mechanisms that contribute to circulation. Tides, due initially to astronomical forces, manifest themselves in the Firth of Forth through the rise and fall of the adjacen

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Meijers, A. J. S. "The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2019 (July 13, 2014): 20130296. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296.

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The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the mode

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Premakumari, Ramapura N., Chandrali Baishya, Pundikala Veeresha, and Lanre Akinyemi. "A Fractional Atmospheric Circulation System under the Influence of a Sliding Mode Controller." Symmetry 14, no. 12 (December 10, 2022): 2618. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym14122618.

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The earth’s surface is heated by the large-scale movement of air known as atmospheric circulation, which works in conjunction with ocean circulation. More than 105 variables are involved in the complexity of the weather system. In this work, we analyze the dynamical behavior and chaos control of an atmospheric circulation model known as the Hadley circulation model, in the frame of Caputo and Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivatives. The fundamental novelty of this paper is the application of the Caputo derivative with equal dimensionality to models that includes memory. A sliding mode controlle

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Dunstone, Nick J. "A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2025 (September 28, 2014): 20130340. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340.

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Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain im

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Moore, P., Q. Zhang, and A. Alothman. "Recent results on modelling the spatial and temporal structure of the Earth's gravity field." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364, no. 1841 (February 22, 2006): 1009–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1751.

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The Earth's gravity field plays a central role in sea-level change. In the simplest application a precise gravity field will enable oceanographers to capitalize fully on the altimetric datasets collected over the past decade or more by providing a geoid from which absolute sea-level topography can be recovered. However, the concept of a static gravity field is now redundant as we can observe temporal variability in the geoid due to mass redistribution in or on the total Earth system. Temporal variability, associated with interactions between the land, oceans and atmosphere, can be investigated

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Gianchandani, Kaushal, Hezi Gildor, and Nathan Paldor. "On the role of domain aspect ratio in the westward intensification of wind-driven surface ocean circulation." Ocean Science 17, no. 1 (February 18, 2021): 351–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-17-351-2021.

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Abstract. The two seminal studies on westward intensification, carried out by Stommel and Munk over 70 years ago, are revisited to elucidate the role of the domain aspect ratio (i.e., meridional to zonal extents of the basin) in determining the transport of the western boundary current (WBC). We examine the general mathematical properties of the two models by transforming them to differential problems that contain only two parameters – the domain aspect ratio and the non-dimensional damping (viscous) coefficient. Explicit analytical expressions are obtained from solutions of the non-dimensiona

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Soldatenko, Sergei. "On the Effects of Mixed and Deep Ocean Layers on Climate Change and Variability." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 9 (August 31, 2022): 1216. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091216.

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The ocean, one of the five major components of the Earth’s climate system, plays a key role in climate-forming processes, affecting its change and variability. The ocean influences climate over a wide range of time–space scales. To explore the climate, its components, interactions between them and, in particular, the effect of the ocean on weather and climate, researchers commonly use extremely complex mathematical models of the climate system that describe the atmospheric and ocean general circulations. However, this class of climate models requires enormous human and computing resources to s

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Worster, M. Grae, and David W. Rees Jones. "Sea-ice thermodynamics and brine drainage." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373, no. 2045 (July 13, 2015): 20140166. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0166.

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Significant changes in the state of the Arctic ice cover are occurring. As the summertime extent of sea ice diminishes, the Arctic is increasingly characterized by first-year rather than multi-year ice. It is during the early stages of ice growth that most brine is injected into the oceans, contributing to the buoyancy flux that mediates the thermo-haline circulation. Current operational sea-ice components of climate models often treat brine rejection between sea ice and the ocean similarly to a thermodynamic segregation process, assigning a fixed salinity to the sea ice, typical of multi-year

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20

Stott, Peter A., and Chris E. Forest. "Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 365, no. 1857 (June 14, 2007): 2029–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2075.

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Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from computationally efficient models and the second uses small ensembles from state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Each approach is described and the advantages of each are discussed. When compared, the two approaches are shown to give consistent ranges for future temperature changes. The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed cl

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Frame, D. J., T. Aina, C. M. Christensen, N. E. Faull, S. H. E. Knight, C. Piani, S. M. Rosier, K. Yamazaki, Y. Yamazaki, and M. R. Allen. "The climate prediction .net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 367, no. 1890 (December 16, 2008): 855–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0240.

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Perturbed physics experiments are among the most comprehensive ways to address uncertainty in climate change forecasts. In these experiments, parameters and parametrizations in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are perturbed across ranges of uncertainty, and results are compared with observations. In this paper, we describe the largest perturbed physics climate experiment conducted to date, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climate change experiment, in which the physics of the atmosphere and ocean are changed, and run in conjunction with a forcing ensemble designed to repre

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Shepherd, John G., Peter G. Brewer, Andreas Oschlies, and Andrew J. Watson. "Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 375, no. 2102 (August 7, 2017): 20170240. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0240.

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Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduc

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23

Alkhayuon, Hassan, Peter Ashwin, Laura C. Jackson, Courtney Quinn, and Richard A. Wood. "Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 475, no. 2225 (May 2019): 20190051. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0051.

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The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC ‘on’ state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here, we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood et al. with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We fin

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Shindell, Drew. "Estimating the potential for twenty-first century sudden climate change." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 365, no. 1860 (July 30, 2007): 2675–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2088.

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I investigate the potential for sudden climate change during the current century. This investigation takes into account evidence from the Earth's history, from climate models and our understanding of the physical processes governing climate shifts. Sudden alterations to climate forcing seem to be improbable, with sudden changes instead most likely to arise from climate feedbacks. Based on projections from models validated against historical events, dramatic changes in ocean circulation appear unlikely. Ecosystem–climate feedbacks clearly have the potential to induce sudden change, but are rela

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van den Bremer, T. S., and Ø. Breivik. "Stokes drift." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376, no. 2111 (December 11, 2017): 20170104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0104.

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During its periodic motion, a particle floating at the free surface of a water wave experiences a net drift velocity in the direction of wave propagation, known as the Stokes drift (Stokes 1847 Trans. Camb. Philos. Soc. 8 , 441–455). More generally, the Stokes drift velocity is the difference between the average Lagrangian flow velocity of a fluid parcel and the average Eulerian flow velocity of the fluid. This paper reviews progress in fundamental and applied research on the induced mean flow associated with surface gravity waves since the first description of the Stokes drift, now 170 years

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John, Eleanor H., Paul N. Pearson, Helen K. Coxall, Heather Birch, Bridget S. Wade, and Gavin L. Foster. "Warm ocean processes and carbon cycling in the Eocene." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 371, no. 2001 (October 28, 2013): 20130099. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0099.

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Sea surface and subsurface temperatures over large parts of the ocean during the Eocene epoch (55.5–33.7 Ma) exceeded modern values by several degrees, which must have affected a number of oceanic processes. Here, we focus on the effect of elevated water column temperatures on the efficiency of the biological pump, particularly in relation to carbon and nutrient cycling. We use stable isotope values from exceptionally well-preserved planktonic foraminiferal calcite from Tanzania and Mexico to reconstruct vertical carbon isotope gradients in the upper water column, exploiting the fact that indi

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Tailleux, Rémi. "Generalized Patched Potential Density and Thermodynamic Neutral Density: Two New Physically Based Quasi-Neutral Density Variables for Ocean Water Masses Analyses and Circulation Studies." Journal of Physical Oceanography 46, no. 12 (December 2016): 3571–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-16-0072.1.

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AbstractIn this paper, two new quasi-neutral density variables—generalized patched potential density (GPPD) and thermodynamic neutral density γT—are introduced, which are showed to approximate Jackett and McDougall empirical neutral density γn significantly better than the quasi-material rational polynomial approximation γa previously introduced by McDougall and Jackett. In contrast to γn, γT is easily and efficiently computed for arbitrary climatologies of temperature and salinity (both realistic and idealized), has a clear physical basis rooted in the theory of available potential energy, an

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Oschlies, Andreas, Olaf Duteil, Julia Getzlaff, Wolfgang Koeve, Angela Landolfi, and Sunke Schmidtko. "Patterns of deoxygenation: sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic drivers." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 375, no. 2102 (August 7, 2017): 20160325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0325.

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Observational estimates and numerical models both indicate a significant overall decline in marine oxygen levels over the past few decades. Spatial patterns of oxygen change, however, differ considerably between observed and modelled estimates. Particularly in the tropical thermocline that hosts open-ocean oxygen minimum zones, observations indicate a general oxygen decline, whereas most of the state-of-the-art models simulate increasing oxygen levels. Possible reasons for the apparent model-data discrepancies are examined. In order to attribute observed historical variations in oxygen levels,

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Dunkley Jones, T., A. Ridgwell, D. J. Lunt, M. A. Maslin, D. N. Schmidt, and P. J. Valdes. "A Palaeogene perspective on climate sensitivity and methane hydrate instability." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 368, no. 1919 (May 28, 2010): 2395–415. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0053.

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The Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), a rapid global warming event and carbon-cycle perturbation of the early Palaeogene, provides a unique test of climate and carbon-cycle models as well as our understanding of sedimentary methane hydrate stability, albeit under conditions very different from the modern. The principal expression of the PETM in the geological record is a large and rapid negative excursion in the carbon isotopic composition of carbonates and organic matter from both marine and terrestrial environments. Palaeotemperature proxy data from across the PETM indicate a coincid

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Romeshkani, Mohsen, Mohammad A. Sharifi, and Dimitrios Tsoulis. "Estimation of gravitational curvature through a deterministic approach and spectral combination of space-borne second-order gravitational potential derivatives." Geophysical Journal International 224, no. 2 (September 26, 2020): 825–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa466.

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SUMMARY Second- and third-order gravitational potential derivatives can be employed for the determination of the medium- and high-frequency parts of the Earth's gravity field. Due to the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer mission, second-order derivatives (SOD) in particular, express currently observed functionals of high accuracy and global coverage. Third-order derivatives (TOD), or gravitational curvature data, provide significant gravity field information when applied regionally. The absence of directly observed TOD data underlines the importance of investigating the

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Kennedy, A. T., A. Farnsworth, D. J. Lunt, C. H. Lear, and P. J. Markwick. "Atmospheric and oceanic impacts of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene–Oligocene transition." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373, no. 2054 (November 13, 2015): 20140419. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0419.

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The glaciation of Antarctica at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (approx. 34 million years ago) was a major shift in the Earth’s climate system, but the mechanisms that caused the glaciation, and its effects, remain highly debated. A number of recent studies have used coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models to assess the climatic effects of Antarctic glacial inception, with often contrasting results. Here, using the HadCM3L model, we show that the global atmosphere and ocean response to growth of the Antarctic ice sheet is sensitive to subtle variations in palaeogeography, using two reconstruct

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MacMartin, Douglas G., and Eli Tziperman. "Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 470, no. 2169 (September 8, 2014): 20140272. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2014.0272.

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Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input–output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe th

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Moffat, C., and M. Meredith. "Shelf–ocean exchange and hydrography west of the Antarctic Peninsula: a review." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376, no. 2122 (May 14, 2018): 20170164. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0164.

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The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a highly productive marine ecosystem where extended periods of change have been observed in the form of glacier retreat, reduction of sea-ice cover and shifts in marine populations, among others. The physical environment on the shelf is known to be strongly influenced by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current flowing along the shelf slope and carrying warm, nutrient-rich water, by cold waters flooding into the northern Bransfield Strait from the Weddell Sea, by an extensive network of glaciers and ice shelves, and by strong seasonal to inter-annual variability

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Weisheimer, Antje, Susanna Corti, Tim Palmer, and Frederic Vitart. "Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2018 (June 28, 2014): 20130290. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0290.

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The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also perfor

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Sagoo, Navjit, Paul Valdes, Rachel Flecker, and Lauren J. Gregoire. "The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?" Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 371, no. 2001 (October 28, 2013): 20130123. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0123.

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Geological data for the Early Eocene (56–47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data–model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called ‘equable climate problem’. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two sim

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Gregory, J. M., and P. Huybrechts. "Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364, no. 1844 (May 25, 2006): 1709–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796.

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Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contribu

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Bunyard, P., M. Hodnett, G. Poveda, J. D. Burgos Salcedo, and C. Peña. "Experimental evidence of condensation-driven airflow." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 10 (October 27, 2015): 10921–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-10921-2015.

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Abstract. The dominant "convection" model of atmospheric circulation is based on the premise that hot air expands and rises, to be replaced by colder air, thereby creating horizontal surface winds. A recent theory put forward by Makarieva and Gorshkov (2007, 2013) maintains that the primary motive force of atmospheric circulation derives from the intense condensation and sharp pressure reduction that is associated with regions where a high rate of evapotranspiration from natural closed-canopy forests provides the "fuel" for cloud formation. The net result of the "biotic pump" theory is that mo

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Haines, Keith, Leon Hermanson, Chunlei Liu, Debbie Putt, Rowan Sutton, Alan Iwi, and Doug Smith. "Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 367, no. 1890 (December 16, 2008): 925–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0178.

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Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC instit

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Lenton, Timothy M., Richard J. Myerscough, Robert Marsh, Valerie N. Livina, Andrew R. Price, and Simon J. Cox. "Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 367, no. 1890 (December 16, 2008): 871–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0171.

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We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling framework to study the archetypal example of a tipping point in the climate system; a threshold for the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). eScience has been invaluable in this work and we explain how we have made it work for us. Two stable states of the THC have been found to coexist, under the same boundary conditions, in a hierarchy of models. The climate forcing required to collapse the THC and the reversibility or irreversibility of such a collapse depends on uncertain model parameters. Automated methods

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Willebrand, Jurgen, and Carl Wunsch. "Inversion of ocean circulation models." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 71, no. 1 (1990): 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/90eo00006.

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Aryal, Abhiru, Albira Acharya, and Ajay Kalra. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling." Forecasting 4, no. 3 (June 29, 2022): 582–603. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/forecast4030032.

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Climate change has caused uncertainty in the hydrological pattern including weather change, precipitation fluctuations, and extreme temperature, thus triggering unforeseen natural tragedies such as hurricanes, flash flooding, heatwave and more. Because of these unanticipated events occurring all around the globe, the study of the influence of climate change on the alteration of flooding patterns has gained a lot of attention. This research study intends to provide an insight into how the future projected streamflow will affect the flooding-inundation extent by comparing the change in floodplai

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Gent, Peter R., and James C. Mcwilliams. "Isopycnal Mixing in Ocean Circulation Models." Journal of Physical Oceanography 20, no. 1 (January 1990): 150–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:imiocm>2.0.co;2.

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Higdon, Robert L. "Numerical modelling of ocean circulation." Acta Numerica 15 (May 2006): 385–470. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0962492906250013.

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Computational simulations of ocean circulation rely on the numerical solution of partial differential equations of fluid dynamics, as applied to a relatively thin layer of stratified fluid on a rotating globe. This paper describes some of the physical and mathematical properties of the solutions being sought, some of the issues that are encountered when the governing equations are solved numerically, and some of the numerical methods that are being used in this area.

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Zelazowski, Przemyslaw, Yadvinder Malhi, Chris Huntingford, Stephen Sitch, and Joshua B. Fisher. "Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369, no. 1934 (January 13, 2011): 137–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0238.

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The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models, which work at low spatial resolution, whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on the current and future distribution of humid tropical forests (HTFs). We first characterize their contemporary climatological niche using annual rainfall and maximum climatological water stress, which als

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Rhein, Monika, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dagmar Kieke, Ilaria Stendardo, and Igor Yashayaev. "Ventilation variability of Labrador Sea Water and its impact on oxygen and anthropogenic carbon: a review." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 375, no. 2102 (August 7, 2017): 20160321. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0321.

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Ventilation of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) receives ample attention because of its potential relation to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, we provide an overview of the changes of LSW from observations in the Labrador Sea and from the southern boundary of the subpolar gyre at 47° N. A strong winter-time atmospheric cooling over the Labrador Sea led to intense and deep convection, producing a thick and dense LSW layer as, for instance, in the early to mid-1990s. The weaker convection in the following years mostly ventilated less dense LSW vintages and al

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Halpern, David. "Data assimilation and ocean general circulation models." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 68, no. 35 (1987): 731. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/eo068i035p00731-02.

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Salmon, Rick. "Generalized two-layer models of ocean circulation." Journal of Marine Research 52, no. 5 (September 1, 1994): 865–908. http://dx.doi.org/10.1357/0022240943076939.

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Gaither, K., R. Moorhead, S. Nations, and D. Fox. "Visualizing ocean circulation models through virtual environments." IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications 17, no. 1 (1997): 16–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/38.576851.

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Eden, Carsten, Lars Czeschel, and Dirk Olbers. "Toward Energetically Consistent Ocean Models." Journal of Physical Oceanography 44, no. 12 (November 26, 2014): 3160–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-13-0260.1.

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Abstract Possibilities to construct a realistic quasi-global ocean model in Boussinesq approximation with a closed energy cycle are explored in this study. In such a model, the energy related to the mean variables would interact with all parameterized forms of energy without any spurious energy sources or sinks. This means that the energy available for interior mixing in the ocean would be only controlled by external energy input from the atmosphere and the tidal system and by internal exchanges. In the current implementation of such a consistent model, however, numerical biases and sources du

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Meccia, Virna L., Doroteaciro Iovino, and Alessio Bellucci. "North Atlantic gyre circulation in PRIMAVERA models." Climate Dynamics 56, no. 11-12 (February 14, 2021): 4075–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05686-z.

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AbstractWe study the impact of horizontal resolution in setting the North Atlantic gyre circulation and representing the ocean–atmosphere interactions that modulate the low-frequency variability in the region. Simulations from five state-of-the-art climate models performed at standard and high-resolution as part of the High-Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) were analysed. In some models, the resolution is enhanced in the atmospheric and oceanic components whereas, in some other models, the resolution is increased only in the atmosphere. Enhancing the horizontal resolution

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