Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Risk terrain modelling"
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Artigos de revistas sobre o assunto "Risk terrain modelling":
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Tsakiris, G. "Flood risk assessment: concepts, modelling, applications". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, n.º 5 (28 de maio de 2014): 1361–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1361-2014.
Resumo:
Abstract. Natural hazards have caused severe consequences to the natural, modified and human systems in the past. These consequences seem to increase with time due to both the higher intensity of the natural phenomena and the higher value of elements at risk. Among the water-related hazards, flood hazards have the most destructive impacts. The paper presents a new systemic paradigm for the assessment of flood hazard and flood risk in the riverine flood-prone areas. Special emphasis is given to the urban areas with mild terrain and complicated topography, in which 2-D fully dynamic flood modelling is proposed. Further, the EU flood directive is critically reviewed and examples of its implementation are presented. Some critical points in the flood directive implementation are also highlighted.
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Tsakiris, G. "Flood risk assessment: concepts, modelling, applications". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2, n.º 1 (14 de janeiro de 2014): 261–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-261-2014.
Resumo:
Abstract. Natural hazards have caused severe consequences to the natural, modified and human systems, in the past. These consequences seem to increase with time due to both higher intensity of the natural phenomena and higher value of elements at risk. Among the water related hazards flood hazards have the most destructive impacts. The paper presents a new systemic paradigm for the assessment of flood hazard and flood risk in the riverine flood prone areas. Special emphasis is given to the urban areas with mild terrain and complicated topography, in which 2-D fully dynamic flood modelling is proposed. Further the EU flood directive is critically reviewed and examples of its implementation are presented. Some critical points in the flood directive implementation are also highlighted.
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Done, James M., Ming Ge, Greg J. Holland, Ioana Dima-West, Samuel Phibbs, Geoffrey R. Saville e Yuqing Wang. "Modelling global tropical cyclone wind footprints". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, n.º 2 (25 de fevereiro de 2020): 567–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020.
Resumo:
Abstract. A novel approach to modelling the surface wind field of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. The modelling system simulates the evolution of the low-level wind fields of landfalling TCs, accounting for terrain effects. A two-step process models the gradient-level wind field using a parametric wind field model fitted to TC track data and then brings the winds down to the surface using a numerical boundary layer model. The physical wind response to variable surface drag and terrain height produces substantial local modifications to the smooth wind field provided by the parametric wind profile model. For a set of US historical landfalling TCs the accuracy of the simulated footprints compares favourably with contemporary modelling approaches. The model is applicable from single-event simulation to the generation of global catalogues. One application demonstrated here is the creation of a dataset of 714 global historical TC overland wind footprints. A preliminary analysis of this dataset shows regional variability in the inland wind speed decay rates and evidence of a strong influence of regional orography. This dataset can be used to advance our understanding of overland wind risk in regions of complex terrain and support wind risk assessments in regions of sparse historical data.
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Liu, Jiahong, Zejin Li, Weiwei Shao, Dianyi Yan e Chao Mei. "Urban flood modelling in Qiqihar city based on MIKE flood". Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 383 (16 de setembro de 2020): 185–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-185-2020.
Resumo:
Abstract. Qiqihar is a significant city on the Nen River in China, which is the main stream of the Songhua River basin. The length of the return period of Qiqihar's flood control design standard is fifty years. If a 100-year flood event happened, Qiqihar would face the risk of a burst levee. To quantitatively evaluate flood risk to the city from a burst levee or proactive flood diversion, a model for analysing flood submergence from a burst levee in the City of Qiqihar is established based on MIKE Flood. The model integrates one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models to implement coupled simulation. The terrain data are from city elevation data on a scale of 1:10 000. Following local modifications made based on survey data, such as on levees, roads, and buildings, a 20 m × 20 m grid of terrain data was formed as the terrain input of the model. The model simulates the water level of Nen River and the flood path, submerged time/depth/area, and duration in floodplain under three scenarios: baseline, proactive downstream flood diversion, and an upstream levee burst under a flood with a one hundred-year return period. Proactive downstream flood diversion can reduce the maximum water level by 0.068 m and correspondingly decrease peak flood flow by 1120 m3 s−1. These results provide basic information to support urban flood risk analysis and flood dispatching and management across the whole river basin.
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Simon, Thorsten, Nikolaus Umlauf, Achim Zeileis, Georg J. Mayr, Wolfgang Schulz e Gerhard Diendorfer. "Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17, n.º 3 (6 de março de 2017): 305–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-305-2017.
Resumo:
Abstract. This study develops methods for estimating lightning climatologies on the day−1 km−2 scale for regions with complex terrain and applies them to summertime observations (2010–2015) of the lightning location system ALDIS in the Austrian state of Carinthia in the Eastern Alps. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are used to model both the probability of occurrence and the intensity of lightning. Additive effects are set up for altitude, day of the year (season) and geographical location (longitude/latitude). The performance of the models is verified by 6-fold cross-validation. The altitude effect of the occurrence model suggests higher probabilities of lightning for locations on higher elevations. The seasonal effect peaks in mid-July. The spatial effect models several local features, but there is a pronounced minimum in the north-west and a clear maximum in the eastern part of Carinthia. The estimated effects of the intensity model reveal similar features, though they are not equal. The main difference is that the spatial effect varies more strongly than the analogous effect of the occurrence model. A major asset of the introduced method is that the resulting climatological information varies smoothly over space, time and altitude. Thus, the climatology is capable of serving as a useful tool in quantitative applications, i.e. risk assessment and weather prediction.
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Folch, Arnau, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono e Antonio Costa. "High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17, n.º 6 (13 de junho de 2017): 861–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017.
Resumo:
Abstract. Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities if the terrain and meteorological conditions favour its accumulation in topographic depressions, thereby reaching toxic concentration levels. Numerical modelling of atmospheric gas dispersion constitutes a useful tool for gas hazard assessment studies, essential for planning risk mitigation actions. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behaviour, potentially leading to inaccurate results if not captured by coarser-scale modelling. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterisation based on transfer functions that couple a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model with a microscale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting time-dependent high-resolution microscale wind field is used as input for a shallow-layer gas dispersal model (TWODEE-2.1) to simulate the time evolution of CO2 gas concentration at different heights above the terrain. The strategy is applied to review simulations of the 1986 Lake Nyos event in Cameroon, where a huge CO2 cloud released by a limnic eruption spread downslopes from the lake, suffocating thousands of people and animals across the Nyos and adjacent secondary valleys. Besides several new features introduced in the new version of the gas dispersal code (TWODEE-2.1), we have also implemented a novel impact criterion based on the percentage of human fatalities depending on CO2 concentration and exposure time. New model results are quantitatively validated using the reported percentage of fatalities at several locations. The comparison with previous simulations that assumed coarser-scale steady winds and topography illustrates the importance of high-resolution modelling in complex terrains.
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Sharples, J. J., R. H. D. McRae e R. O. Weber. "Wind characteristics over complex terrain with implications for bushfire risk management". Environmental Modelling & Software 25, n.º 10 (outubro de 2010): 1099–120. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.016.
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Drawve, Grant, Stacy C. Moak e Emily R. Berthelot. "Predictability of gun crimes: a comparison of hot spot and risk terrain modelling techniques". Policing and Society 26, n.º 3 (5 de agosto de 2014): 312–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10439463.2014.942851.
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Sanders, R., F. Shaw, H. MacKay, H. Galy e M. Foote. "National flood modelling for insurance purposes: using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe". Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9, n.º 4 (7 de outubro de 2005): 449–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-449-2005.
Resumo:
Abstract. Flood risk poses a major problem for insurers and governments who ultimately pay the financial costs of losses resulting from flood events. Insurers therefore face the problem of how to assess their exposure to floods and how best to price the flood element of their insurance products. This paper looks at the insurance implications of recent flood events in Europe and the issues surrounding insurance of potential future events. In particular, the paper will focus on the flood risk information needs of insurers and how these can be met. The data requirements of national and regional flood models are addressed in the context of the accuracy of available data on property location. Terrain information is generally the weakest component of sophisticated flood models. Therefore, various sources of digital terrain models (DTM) are examined and discussed with consideration of the vertical and horizontal accuracy, the speed of acquisition, the costs and the comprehensiveness of the data. The NEXTMap DTM series from Intermap Technologies Inc. is proposed as a suitable DTM for flood risk identification and mapping, following its use in the UK. Its acquisition, processing and application is described and future plans discussed. Examples are included of the application of flood information to insurance property information and the potential benefits and advantages of using suitable hazard modelling data sources are detailed.
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Singh, Gagandeep, Vishwa Bandhu Singh Chandel e Simrit Kahlon. "Flood Hazard Modelling in Upper Mandakini Basin of Uttarakhand". Current World Environment 16, n.º 3 (31 de dezembro de 2021): 880–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/cwe.16.3.18.
Resumo:
Floods in Himalayan region raise serious concerns regarding ongoing path of development as recent manifestations of catastrophic events establish link between climate changes and risk to anthropogenic activities in mountainous regions. Scientists predict frequent occurrence of such disasters wherein rapid glacial melting; incidents of glacial lake outburst and weather extremes may trigger floods in the Himalayan mountains. This paper examined flood risk in Upper Mandakini basin through GIS based flood simulationto highlight flood potential and risk associated with such hazard in the study area.It is observed that floods in study area display hazardous interplay of natural terrain gradient, high kinetic energy of streams, and intense rainfall. The upper sections of basin that includes Kali Ganga, Mandani Ganga, Madhyamaheshwar and Mandakini rivers shows high flood susceptibility with greatest risk in the latter. Such hazardousness is likely to be intensified by ongoing anthropogenic activities in the basin.
Teses / dissertações sobre o assunto "Risk terrain modelling":
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DUGATO, MARCO. "L'INTERAZIONE TRA LE CARATTERISTICHE DEI QUARTIERI E L'AMBIENTE FISICO NELLA DETERMINAZIONE DELLA VULNERABILITÀ AL CRIMINE NEI MICROLUOGHI. PROVE EMPIRICHE DA UNA VALUTAZIONE SPAZIALE MULTILIVELLO DEL RISCHIO DI CRIMINALITÀ A MILANO, IT E IZTAPALAPA, MX". Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/98602.
Resumo:
Diverse teorie si concentrano sui legami tra criminalità e caratteristiche specifiche di luoghi e comunità. Tuttavia, solo pochi studi applicati sostengono esplicitamente che i fattori contestuali possono combinarsi nel determinare il rischio di criminalità e che le loro influenze criminogene possono operare su scala diversa. Questo studio si propone di indagare come alcune caratteristiche del paesaggio urbano (microlivello) interagiscono tra loro, nonché con le caratteristiche demografiche, economiche e sociali dell'ambiente dei quartieri circostanti (livello meso), per determinare la vulnerabilità spaziale alla criminalità e, in definitiva, la probabilità di un evento criminale. Questo studio conduce una valutazione del rischio di criminalità spaziale per rapine e crimini violenti in due grandi aree urbane: Milano, Italia e Iztapalapa, Messico. I casi di studio sono focalizzati su due paesi molto diversi, il che consente sia la valutazione dell'influenza di effetti contestuali più ampi (livello macro) sia la verifica di alcuni presupposti teorici al di fuori dell'ambiente anglosassone. L'analisi si fonda sull'approccio del Risk Terrain Modeling. Tuttavia, contrariamente alle applicazioni precedenti, l'analisi in questo studio si basa su un modello di regressione multilivello che include termini di interazione. Lo studio propone inoltre metodi innovativi attraverso i quali esporre e comunicare i propri risultati. Nel complesso, i risultati dimostrano che fattori contestuali misurati a diverse scale geografiche interagiscono in modo significativo tra loro per determinare il rischio di criminalità. Questa scoperta suggerisce di combinare input provenienti da diverse teorie al fine di comprendere le dinamiche alla base del verificarsi del crimine. Inoltre, il metodo proposto generalmente consente di prevedere meglio i crimini futuri e consente la generazione di narrazioni di rischio più precise per informare politiche e interventi.Several theories focus on the links between crime and specific characteristics of places and communities. However, only a few applied studies explicitly purport that contextual factors may combine in determining crime risk and that their criminogenic influences may operate at different geographical scales. This study aims to investigate how certain features of the urban landscape (micro-level) interact with each other, as well as with demographic, economic and social characteristics of the surrounding neighbourhoods (meso-level), to determine spatial vulnerability to crime and, ultimately, the likelihood of a criminal event. This study conducts a spatial crime risk assessment for robberies and violent crimes in two large urban areas: Milan, Italy and Iztapalapa, Mexico. The case studies are focused on two very different countries, which allows for both the assessment of the influence of broader contextual effects (macro-level) and to test certain theoretical assumptions outside the Anglo-Saxon environment. The analysis is grounded in the Risk Terrain Modeling approach. However, in contrast to previous applications, the analysis in this study relies on a multi-level regression model including interaction terms. The study also proposes innovative methods through which to display and communicate its findings. Overall, the results demonstrate that contextual factors measured at different geographical scales interact significantly among them to determine crime risk. This finding suggests combining inputs from different theories in order to understand the dynamics behind crime occurrence. Furthermore, the proposed method generally allows us to better predict the locations of future crimes and enables the generation of more precise risk narratives to inform policies and interventions.
2
DUGATO, MARCO. "L'INTERAZIONE TRA LE CARATTERISTICHE DEI QUARTIERI E L'AMBIENTE FISICO NELLA DETERMINAZIONE DELLA VULNERABILITÀ AL CRIMINE NEI MICROLUOGHI. PROVE EMPIRICHE DA UNA VALUTAZIONE SPAZIALE MULTILIVELLO DEL RISCHIO DI CRIMINALITÀ A MILANO, IT E IZTAPALAPA, MX". Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/98602.
Resumo:
Diverse teorie si concentrano sui legami tra criminalità e caratteristiche specifiche di luoghi e comunità. Tuttavia, solo pochi studi applicati sostengono esplicitamente che i fattori contestuali possono combinarsi nel determinare il rischio di criminalità e che le loro influenze criminogene possono operare su scala diversa. Questo studio si propone di indagare come alcune caratteristiche del paesaggio urbano (microlivello) interagiscono tra loro, nonché con le caratteristiche demografiche, economiche e sociali dell'ambiente dei quartieri circostanti (livello meso), per determinare la vulnerabilità spaziale alla criminalità e, in definitiva, la probabilità di un evento criminale. Questo studio conduce una valutazione del rischio di criminalità spaziale per rapine e crimini violenti in due grandi aree urbane: Milano, Italia e Iztapalapa, Messico. I casi di studio sono focalizzati su due paesi molto diversi, il che consente sia la valutazione dell'influenza di effetti contestuali più ampi (livello macro) sia la verifica di alcuni presupposti teorici al di fuori dell'ambiente anglosassone. L'analisi si fonda sull'approccio del Risk Terrain Modeling. Tuttavia, contrariamente alle applicazioni precedenti, l'analisi in questo studio si basa su un modello di regressione multilivello che include termini di interazione. Lo studio propone inoltre metodi innovativi attraverso i quali esporre e comunicare i propri risultati. Nel complesso, i risultati dimostrano che fattori contestuali misurati a diverse scale geografiche interagiscono in modo significativo tra loro per determinare il rischio di criminalità. Questa scoperta suggerisce di combinare input provenienti da diverse teorie al fine di comprendere le dinamiche alla base del verificarsi del crimine. Inoltre, il metodo proposto generalmente consente di prevedere meglio i crimini futuri e consente la generazione di narrazioni di rischio più precise per informare politiche e interventi.Several theories focus on the links between crime and specific characteristics of places and communities. However, only a few applied studies explicitly purport that contextual factors may combine in determining crime risk and that their criminogenic influences may operate at different geographical scales. This study aims to investigate how certain features of the urban landscape (micro-level) interact with each other, as well as with demographic, economic and social characteristics of the surrounding neighbourhoods (meso-level), to determine spatial vulnerability to crime and, ultimately, the likelihood of a criminal event. This study conducts a spatial crime risk assessment for robberies and violent crimes in two large urban areas: Milan, Italy and Iztapalapa, Mexico. The case studies are focused on two very different countries, which allows for both the assessment of the influence of broader contextual effects (macro-level) and to test certain theoretical assumptions outside the Anglo-Saxon environment. The analysis is grounded in the Risk Terrain Modeling approach. However, in contrast to previous applications, the analysis in this study relies on a multi-level regression model including interaction terms. The study also proposes innovative methods through which to display and communicate its findings. Overall, the results demonstrate that contextual factors measured at different geographical scales interact significantly among them to determine crime risk. This finding suggests combining inputs from different theories in order to understand the dynamics behind crime occurrence. Furthermore, the proposed method generally allows us to better predict the locations of future crimes and enables the generation of more precise risk narratives to inform policies and interventions.
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NICODEMO, GIUSEPPE. "Exposure modelling and loss estimation for seismic risk assessment of residential buildings: innovative methods and applications". Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi della Basilicata, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11563/146804.
Resumo:
Defining the seismic hazard, assessing the vulnerability of the main components of the built environment and, consequently, estimating the expected losses are key steps for setting up effective post-event emergency plans as well as medium-long term mitigation strategies. Despite the significant knowledge advancements achieved in the last years, several points need to be further developed. Among them the collection of reliable building inventories, the selection of appropriate measures of seismic intensity and the definition of accurate loss estimation models still propose some challenges for the scientific community.
The present PhD thesis aims at providing a contribution in this direction. After a comprehensive state of the art on seismic risk components along with a literature review focused on the main models to estimate the expected seismic losses, some new procedures related to hazard, exposure and loss estimation, have been proposed and applied.
Firstly, a model aimed at estimating the direct economic losses (i.e., building repair costs) has been developed by improving the models currently available in the literature. These models generally account for only the severity of damage (i.e., the maximum damage level), while damage extension and distribution, especially along the building height, are implicitly considered in the repair cost values. If on the one side, the assessment of safety condition depends essentially on damage severity, on the other side, damage extension strongly affects the estimation of economic impact. In this regard, the proposed model allows to explicitly consider both damage severity and distribution along the building height. The model is applicable to both Reinforced Concrete (RC) and masonry building types. It requires the determination of the more frequent damage distributions throughout the building height. At the current state, the procedure has been specifically implemented for existing Reinforced Concrete (RC) building types by performing Non-Linear Dynamic Analyses (NLDAs).
As for seismic hazard, correlations between macroseismic intensities and ground motion parameters have been derived processing data related to Italian earthquakes occurred in the last 40 years. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Housner Intensity (IH) as instrumental measures, and European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) and Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg (MCS) as macroseismic measures, have been considered. The correlations can be used both to adopt empirical damage estimation methods (e.g., Damage Probability Matrices) and to convert the macroseismic data of historical earthquakes into instrumental intensity values, more suitable to risk analyses and design practice.
Concerning exposure, an innovative methodology has been developed to convert the information on the typological characteristics collected through the AeDES form (currently used in Italy in post-earthquake usability surveys) to recognized international standards such as the taxonomy proposed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the EMS-98 building types. The methodology allows to fully exploit the exposure and vulnerability data of post-earthquake surveys related to the Italian built environment and to define an exposure model in terms of risk-oriented classes more suitable for large-scale risk assessments.
Furthermore, an approach based on the integration of data collected with the CARTIS procedure (i.e., a protocol used in Italy for the typological-structural characterization of buildings at regional scale) and using the RRVS web-based platform (i.e., for a remote visual screening based on satellite images) has been proposed and specifically applied to the village of Calvello (Basilicata region, Southern Italy). This approach represents a useful tool for compiling residential building inventories in a quick and inexpensive way thus being very suitable in data-poor and economically developing countries.
To better illustrate the proposed methodological developments, some applications are provided in the last part of the thesis. The first one proposes a comparison among the results obtained applying some casualty estimation models available in the literature using the vulnerability and damage data collected in the L’Aquila urban area after the 2009 earthquake (data available on the Observed Damage Database Da.D.O. platform). After, by using the same data source, an exposure model in terms of EMS-98 types based on the 2009 post-earthquake data has been implemented for the residential buildings of L'Aquila town and the surrounding municipalities involved in the usability assessment surveys.
The third - expansive - application deals with the seismic risk assessment of the Val d’Agri area (Basilicata region, Southern Italy). This area has a strategic role for Italy due to the large quantities of oil extracted from local deposits, making available large resources deriving from royalties. Specifically, earthquake damage scenarios for the residential building stock of 19 villages have been prepared. Considering a seismic vulnerability distribution obtained from the integration of a building-by-building inventory and information collected with the CARTIS and RRVS approaches, the expected losses deriving from a seismic event with an exceedance probability of 10% in 50 years (475 years return period) have been determined. Finally, an action plan for the seismic risk mitigation, essentially based on the reduction of vulnerability of the building stock through a structural strengthening program, has been proposed and specifically applied to one of the villages in the area under study.
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VERTICCHIO, ELENA. "An integrated approach for the climate-induced risk assessment within historic libraries combining microclimate data and modelling". Doctoral thesis, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1619403.
Resumo:
The durability of historic libraries is affected by deterioration processes driven by the environmental conditions in which the collections are kept. The present research aimed to infer meaningful information from the combination of microclimate observations (i) and modelling (ii) so to outline an integrated approach to assess the climate-induced risks (iii) in historic libraries. Four historic libraries in Italy, associated with different climates, were used as case studies: theMeteorology Library of CREA (Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’Analisi dell’Economia Agraria) at Collegio Romano and the repository of the Alessandrina Library in Rome, the Ca’ Granda Library in Milan and the Delfiniana Library in Udine. The study of the microclimate (i) enhanced the understanding of the interaction between the heritage material properties and the environmental forcing. For the first time, a comparative study was carried out to provide useful insight into the impact on the climate-induced conservation risks for paper collections of conditioned and unconditioned microclimates in historic buildings. Modelling (ii) allowed to simulate the microclimate inside historic buildings housing the libraries using both sinusoidal heat and moisture transfer functions and whole-building dynamic simulation. For the latter method, the thermal model of the Collegio Romano Library was built in IDA ICE (Indoor Climate and Energy) environment and calibrated using on-site measurements. Then, the capability of IDA ICE extended with HMWall (Heat Air and Moisture) model was tested in the simulation of 1D hygrothermal exchanges across a wall made in paper. To this aim, the physical and hygrothermal properties of ancient and modern papers were investigated through a sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential parameters in the simulation of moisture gradients. Finally, dose-response/damage functions for library materials and NDT (Non-Destructive Testing) measurements were used to evaluate the climate-induced risks for paper collections (iii). The climate-induced risk assessment involved mechanical, chemical and biological mechanisms. The allowable microclimate bands to avoid mechanical stress to organic hygroscopic materials and the risk of wear and tears due to handling were studied to draw recommendations to limit mechanical deterioration in case of consultation and loans. The isochrones of equal expected lifetime of paper allowed to evaluate the chemical risk for different paper-based collections as a function of their intrinsic vulnerability (i.e., acidity and degree of polymerisation) and considering the typical response time of paper books to the environmental temperature and humidity changes. In addition, the Time Weighted Expected Lifetime (TWEL) index was defined to explore the effect on paper conservation of changes in the microclimate conditions resulting from climate control strategies, retrofitting measures and/or the possible future climate change. The biological threats were estimated by using Sedlbauer curves for mould germination and growth and the Brimblecombe model for potential production of cloth moth eggs. Finally, the colorimetric change on some faded book covers in the repository of the Alessandrina library was monitored over a year to estimate the photodeterioration rate due to solar exposure. The results highlighted that, at all climate zones considered, the historic libraries were characterised by high thermal inertia and moisture buffering capacity due to the combined effect of massive building envelopes, low air exchanges and large total volumes of hygroscopic materials. The modelling of the hygrothermal conditions inside paper collections showed that the relative humidity levels and fluctuations collected in the libraries would affect only the first layers of the books, showing a low impact on their conservation. Temperature was found to be a key microclimate stressor to be studied for preventive conservation of paper collections, as it controls the rate of cellulose hydrolysis and favours insect proliferation. In terms of paper chemical deterioration, the annual microclimate conditions inside the libraries would lead to the loss of their acidic collections in less than 300 years. The use of winter
heating markedly reduced the expected lifetime with respect to that estimated in the unconditioned microclimates in the same season. For this reason, the natural microclimates within historic buildings in winter could be suggested as a sustainable preservation strategy for paper collections. This result was confirmed in simulation environment reconstructing the natural microclimate in Collegio Romano Library through its validated whole-building model. The observed summer overheating is particularly alarming in view of the predicted climate change, as the expected lifetime for acidic paper was found to potentially decrease up to 46% in the Far Future (2071-2100) if compared to the Recent Past (1981-2010) scenario. Finally, although spore germination could be excluded, the risk of insect proliferation was high in all the libraries. The annual discolouration rate of the faded book covers in Alessandrina was too low to be measured; however, the estimated luminous exposure was found to be incompatible for the conservation of photosensitive materials. The integrated approach followed in this thesis enabled a wide-ranging study on the conservation of historic libraries, enhancing the understanding of the role of climate on the deterioration risks and supporting the design of rational and sustainable mitigation strategies. The same approach could be effectively adapted to most library and archival collections made of paper.
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DESIDERI, Francesco Saverio. "Measurement and estimation of seismic attenuation for near-surface site characterization". Doctoral thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1364692.
Resumo:
Seismic attenuation is a fundamental parameter on the comprehension of the viscoelastic real behavior of the medium. Characterization of the ability of materials to transmit and dissipate seismic waves is even important for petrophysical descriptions of reservoir rocks. The purpose of this work is to investigate the reliability of the rise-time and the spectral ratio methods for estimation in a seismic downhole campaign, to obtain accurate profiles. In this study, we applied two different methods to estimate attenuation. We used a standard spectral ratio technique to obtain the frequency independent and then compared the results to obtained in the time domain from rise-time measurements. Most of the borehole attenuation studies presented in literature are carried out for hydrocarbon exploration. The main contribution of the present work is to apply the two most used attenuation estimation methods to near-surface data. They include two techniques to determine the material damping ratio of the soil based on the downhole (DHT) test, and other two for attenuation and dispersion curves from MASW testing.
Livros sobre o assunto "Risk terrain modelling":
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Kulak, Dariusz. Wieloaspektowa metoda oceny stanu gleb leśnych po przeprowadzeniu procesów pozyskania drewna. Publishing House of the University of Agriculture in Krakow, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.15576/978-83-66602-28-1.
Resumo:
Presented reasearch aimed to develop and analyse the suitability of the CART models for prediction of the extent and probability of occurrence of damage to outer soil layers caused by timber harvesting performed under varied conditions. Having employed these models, the author identified certain methods of logging works and conditions, under which they should be performed to minimise the risk of damaging forest soils. The analyses presented in this work covered the condition of soils upon completion of logging works, which was investigated in 48 stands located in central and south-eastern Poland. In the stands selected for these studies a few felling treatments were carried out, including early thinning, late thinning and final felling. Logging works were performed with use of the most popular technologies in Poland. Trees were cut down with chainsaws and timber was extracted by means of various skidding methods: with horses, semi-suspended skidding with the use of cable yarding systems, farm tractors equipped with cable winches or tractors of a skidder type, and forwarding employing farm tractors with trailers loaded mechanically by cranes or manually. The analyses also included mechanised forest operation with the use of a harvester and a forwarder. The information about the extent of damage to soil, in a form of wheel-ruts and furrows, gathered in the course of soil condition inventory served for construction of regression tree models using the CART method (Classification and Regression Trees), based on which the area, depth and the volume of soil damage under analysis, wheel-ruts and furrows, were determined, and the total degree of all soil disturbances was assessed. The CART classification trees were used for modelling the probability of occurrence of wheel-ruts and furrows, or any other type of soil damage. Qualitative independent variables assumed by the author for developing the models included several characteristics describing the conditions under which the logging works were performed, mensuration data of the stands and the treatments conducted there. These characteristics covered in particular: the season of the year when logging works were performed, the system of timber harvesting employed, the manner of timber skidding, the means engaged in the process of timber harvesting and skidding, habitat type, crown closure, and cutting category. Moreover, the author took into consideration an impact of the quantitative independent variables on the extent and probability of occurrence of soil disturbance. These variables included the following: the measuring row number specifying a distance between the particular soil damage and communication tracks, the age of a stand, the soil moisture content, the intensity of a particular cutting treatment expressed by units of harvested timber volume per one hectare of the stand, and the mean angle of terrain inclination. The CART models developed in these studies not only allowed the author to identify the conditions, under which the soil damage of a given degree is most likely to emerge, or determine the probability of its occurrence, but also, thanks to a graphical presentation of the nature and strength of relationships between the variables employed in the model construction, they facilitated a recognition of rules and relationships between these variables and the area, depth, volume and probability of occurrence of forest soil damage of a particular type. Moreover, the CART trees served for developing the so-called decision-making rules, which are especially useful in organising logging works. These rules allow the organisers of timber harvest to plan the management-related actions and operations with the use of available technical means and under conditions enabling their execution in such manner as to minimise the harm to forest soils. Furthermore, employing the CART trees for modelling soil disturbance made it possible to evaluate particular independent variables in terms of their impact on the values of dependent variables describing the recorded disturbance to outer soil layers. Thanks to this the author was able to identify, amongst the variables used in modelling the properties of soil damage, these particular ones that had the greatest impact on values of these properties, and determine the strength of this impact. Detailed results depended on the form of soil disturbance and the particular characteristics subject to analysis, however the variables with the strongest influence on the extent and probability of occurrence of soil damage, under the conditions encountered in the investigated stands, enclosed the following: the season of the year when logging works were performed, the volume-based cutting intensity of the felling treatments conducted, technical means used for completion of logging works, the soil moisture content during timber harvest, the manner of timber skidding, dragged, semi-suspended or forwarding, and finally a distance between the soil damage and transportation ducts. The CART models proved to be very useful in designing timber harvesting technologies that could minimise the risk of forest soil damage in terms of both, the extent of factual disturbance and the probability of its occurrence. Another valuable advantage of this kind of modelling is an opportunity to evaluate an impact of particular variables on the extent and probability of occurrence of damage to outer soil layers. This allows the investigator to identify, amongst all of the variables describing timber harvesting processes, those crucial ones, from which any optimisation process should start, in order to minimise the negative impact of forest management practices on soil condition.
Capítulos de livros sobre o assunto "Risk terrain modelling":
1
Di Benedetto, Alessandro, e Margherita Fiani. "Integration of LiDAR Data into a Regional Topographic Database for the Generation of a 3D City Model". In Geomatics for Green and Digital Transition, 193–208. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-17439-1_14.
Resumo:
AbstractTo analyze the resilience of road infrastructures to natural and anthropic hazards, the spatial and descriptive data provided by the Italian National Topographic Data Base (NTDB) and the 3D data coming from the LiDAR data of the “Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorio e del Mare” (MATTM) can be used. The two datasets, having different nature, need to be properly joined. The aim of the work is the integration of the two datasets in a GIS environment for the 3D modelling of the anthropized territory and the optimization of the cartographic bases. On a test area, crossed by a network of linear infrastructures of great strategic importance and subjected to hydrogeological risk, an automated process has been implemented and tested in ArcGIS Desktop environment, to homogenize the data into the National Reference System. The planimetric component comes from the NTDB whereas the LiDAR data have been used to attribute the elevation to the extracted elements, to create the breaklines for a proper interpolation of the heights to build the Digital Terrain Model (DTM), to extract the height of the pitches of the buildings identified in the NTDB polygons, and finally to generate, filter and optimize the contour lines. The proposed workflow and the methodologies implemented also allowed the reconstruction of the volumes of each element involved (infrastructures and buildings) and to correct the altimetric aberrations present in the NTDB polygons.
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Chattoraj, Shovan L. "Debris Flow Modelling and Risk Assessment of Selected Landslides from Uttarakhand- Case Studies using Earth Observation Data". In Advances in Geospatial Technologies, 111–21. IGI Global, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-1814-3.ch006.
Resumo:
Presently demand for process based modelling of mass movements encompassing snow avalanche, debris flows, landslides, mud flows and rock falls has increased manifold due to their devastating effect and mitigation challenges of disasters caused by such phenomena. Debris flows are multi-phase gravity-driven flows consisting of randomly dispersed interacting phases and therefore, are, extremely challenging to predict the dynamics, run-out distance and area of inundation related to such events which will facilitate mitigation as well as evaluation of simulated scenarios. The numerical simulation model predicts the motion of a geophysical mass movement from head to base in three dimensions. These process-based 3-D models can be utilized for better understanding of vulnerability of a complex mountainous terrain and design appropriate civil engineering structures to withstand the impact of potential flows like Ukhimath, Uttarkashi and Kedarnath.
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Wang, Qing, Matthias Ihme, Yi-fan Chen, Vivian Yang, Fei Sha e John Anderson. "Towards real-time predictions of large-scale wildfire scenarios using a fully coupled atmosphere-fire physical modelling framework". In Advances in Forest Fire Research 2022, 415–21. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2298-9_67.
Resumo:
With the changing climate, fire-exclusion, and expansion of wildland-urban interfaces, the frequency and severity of wildfires are expected to increase, putting substantial stress on fire management and authorities to mitigate the risk of wildfires. Improved physical models in conjunction with advanced high-performance computing resources offer new opportunities for operational use in examining potential fire-spread scenarios and planning. This work presents an open-source, high-fidelity modelling framework for simulating large-scale wildfire scenarios, taking into consideration atmospheric/fire coupling, complex terrain, and heterogeneous fuel loading. The framework is implemented using the TensorFlow programming environment on tensor processing units (TPUs). TPUs are a dedicated high-performance computing architecture to accelerate machine-learning applications and high-performance scientific computing. This framework solves the Favre-filtered reacting Navier-Stokes equations and the unclosed terms describing turbulence/chemistry interaction and turbulence transport are modelled using large-eddy simulation (LES) closures. Wildfire dynamics is described by a one-step solid-fuel pyrolysis/combustion model that is coupled to atmospheric flow dynamics using a Boussinesq-type approximation. A second-order finite-difference discretization is employed in a variable-density, low-Mach number formulation to discretize the governing equations, and an immersed-boundary method is adapted to represent complex terrain. In conjunction with the coupled atmosphere/fire model and physical models for turbulence/atmosphere/fire interaction, the resulting simulation framework enables high-resolution simulations (with spatial resolution below 2m) of large-scale fires that cover up to ~100,000 acres. Following the summary of validation results against a prescribed fire experiment to assess the overall accuracy at well-controlled conditions, we employ this coupled atmosphere/fire modelling framework to simulate a large-scale wildfire scenario that is representative of the 2017 California Tubb’s fire. To this end, we extract the terrain of the North Bay region of Calistoga and Santa Rosa, spanning an area of 20×20 km2, and consider a North-Eastern wind. The simulation results illustrate the rapid fire-spread dynamics and the coupling of the fire with the terrain and atmosphere. With relevance to operational and research applications that include parametric studies to examine effects of wind, fuel-density, other environmental factors, and fire-management strategies, we discuss the scalability and further extensions of the physical fidelity towards enabling real-time applications on TPU-compute architectures.
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Karzar-Jeddi, Mehdi. "An Equivalent Fuel Model for Wildland Urban Interface – Application to Risk Management". In Advances in Forest Fire Research 2022, 509–11. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2298-9_79.
Resumo:
Wildfires are imposing increasingly greater risk to people and insured properties. The frequency and intensity of destructive wildfires has increased significantly in past decades. Most wildfire damage to properties occurs in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where properties are either exposed to wildfire directly and burn or are ignited by firebrands. Many wildfire models are focused on modelling the spread of fires in wildland; however, the studies of the spread of wildfires into urban areas is limited. This paper presents a new model for fuel load in urban area using an equivalent fuel load as wildland fuel to simulate wildfire spread when they approach wildland and urban interface/intermix. The model is to estimate the heat release rate from a typical single house and determine the combination of different fuel sizes. Then, according to the density of structures based on satellite imagery the fuel from LANDFIRE fuel is updated with the model urban fuel. A similar method of equivalent fuel load for agriculture area is developed and the LANDFIRE fuel is updated with the agriculture fuel. Using the updated landscape fuel and terrain, Rothermel-based simulation of wildfire is performed in FARSITE. This simulation is helpful in determining the risk of wildfires for properties and communities.
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Fiorini, Cesare, Hélder D. Craveiro, Aldina Santiago, Luís Laim e Luís Simões da Silva. "Microscale fire modelling at the Wildland-Urban Interface". In Advances in Forest Fire Research 2022, 689–94. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2298-9_105.
Resumo:
The direct and indirect impacts of Wildland-Urban Interface fires on infrastructures and communities have become more severe in the last few decades, mainly due to the disproportionate growth of urban areas lacking planning and management, the abandonment of rural areas and activities, and climate changes. Many regions of the southern Mediterranean, the United States, Australia, and South America have been severely affected with catastrophic losses. Building codes addressing the problem of WUI fires in the vicinity of the built environment are still scarce, but already with a few good examples, namely the Australian Standard AS 3959-2009, Construction of Buildings in Bushfire Prone Areas. But with the increasing risks, nowadays mainly driven by climate change, it is necessary to develop new approaches and codes for existing and new buildings effectively contributing to enhance the resilience of the built environment and communities in the WUI. Moreover, taking advantage of new and ever-evolving computational tools, the use of a performance-based approach, replacing or complementing prescriptive codes, shows great potential to enable a deeper understanding of the complex fire spread mechanisms from forest fires to urban fires, namely radiant heat, direct flame contact and firebrands. Physics-based modelling enables a better understanding of such phenomena, bearing in mind that up to date no accurate and reliable models for firebrands can be found. In this investigation, a performance-based approach is considered, exploring the capabilities of computational fluid dynamics and the software Fire Dynamics Simulation (FDS) to investigate and quantify WUI fire exposures. This was achieved by considering available experimental data on vegetation burning and developing and calibrating the numerical models using FDS. A Particle Method, based on Lagrangian particles was selected for this investigation, since this model is particularly suitable to simulate surface and raised vegetation fire spread. With this strategy all thermo-physical properties of the fuels must be used as input, ensuring that the fire spread can be computed by the model. Based on the calibrated models for a single tree, a new case study scenario was created (structure exposed to wildfire) and investigated aiming to assess in detail WUI fire exposures under different conditions by varying several parameters, such as wind speed and direction, distance to the structure and elevation of the terrain. Since a performance-based approach was selected and considering the basic principles associated with Fire Safety Engineering (FSE), 3 basic components must be assessed, namely the fire modelling, the thermal analysis in the structure and finally the structural analysis considering temperature increase and degradation of mechanical properties of materials. From the fire modelling investigated in this paper, some attention was devoted to assessing Adiabatic Surface Temperatures in the structure and consequently defining in a simple way to couple CFD field models to Finite Element Models (FEM) that will enable the understanding and development of ignition resistant structures in the WUI.
Trabalhos de conferências sobre o assunto "Risk terrain modelling":
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Ponziani, Fabio Alaimo. "Water-Based Shields Deployment on Terrain during Wildfire Spread: A Modelling Approach Using Distributed Information through Autonomous Agents". In The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk. Basel Switzerland: MDPI, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017083.
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Stephens, Mark, Howard Yue, Ann Halford e Niall Foster. "Onshore Pipeline Safety Consequence Modelling in Support of the Development of a Risk-Based Safety Class System". In 2022 14th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87217.
Resumo:
Abstract A consequence-based safety class system was developed as an alternative to the class location system currently used as the basis for defining the maximum allowable hoop stress in Canadian Standard Association’s Standard Z662. Development of the safety class system required models to quantify the safety-related consequences of pipeline releases expressed as simple analytical functions of a limited number of parameters that are typically known at the pipeline design stage. These simple analytical formulas were developed using an empirical approach, in which validated numerical models were first used to estimate the hazard zone sizes for a matrix of cases representing the feasible input parameter ranges for pipelines associated with each service fluid. Subsequent work, described in a companion paper, employed regression analysis of the parametric analysis results to develop the required simplified analytical formulas. This paper describes the safety hazards posed by releases of the various service fluids; the numerical models employed in the parametric analysis to determine the associated hazard areas as a function of key pipeline, service fluid, terrain, and weather-related parameters; and the hazard intensities adopted to delineate the size and extent of the hazard areas bound by both the 1% and 99% lethality contours. It also discusses the sensitivity analysis undertaken to establish the minimum set of pipeline and service fluid parameters that could be used to credibly estimate the size and extent of the applicable lethality zones. It concludes with a set of examples that illustrates the relative size and extent of the model-predicted lethality zones associated with the various hazards that could develop for each service fluid in a representative set of pipelines.
3
Kalbarczyk-Jedynak, Agnieszka. "MODELLING OF EXPLOSION RISK AREAS IN A FUNCTION OF TERRAIN TOPOGRAPHY, WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CHEMICAL COMPOSITION FOR A GAS MIXTURE OF PROPANE-BUTANE TYPE". In 18th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM2018. Stef92 Technology, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2018/1.4/s06.079.
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Kuznetsova, Olga, Olga Kuznetsova, Yana Saprykina, Yana Saprykina, Boris Divinsky e Boris Divinsky. "UNDERWATER BARRED BEACH PROFILE TRANSFORMATION UNDER DIFFERENT WAVES CONDITIONS". In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b940242aba7.92673837.
Resumo:
Based on numerical modelling evolution of beach under waves with height 1,0-1,5 m and period 7,5 and 10,6 sec as well as spectral wave parameters varying cross-shore analysed. The beach reformation of coastal zone relief is spatially uneven. It is established that upper part of underwater beach profile become terraced and width of the terrace is in direct pro-portion to wave height and period on the seaward boundary but inversely to angle of wave energy spreading. In addition it was ascertain that the greatest transfiguration of profile was accompanied by existence of bound infragravity waves, smaller part of its energy and shorter mean wave period as well as more significant roller energy.
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Kuznetsova, Olga, Olga Kuznetsova, Yana Saprykina, Yana Saprykina, Boris Divinsky e Boris Divinsky. "UNDERWATER BARRED BEACH PROFILE TRANSFORMATION UNDER DIFFERENT WAVES CONDITIONS". In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b4315f60698.
Resumo:
Based on numerical modelling evolution of beach under waves with height 1,0-1,5 m and period 7,5 and 10,6 sec as well as spectral wave parameters varying cross-shore analysed. The beach reformation of coastal zone relief is spatially uneven. It is established that upper part of underwater beach profile become terraced and width of the terrace is in direct pro-portion to wave height and period on the seaward boundary but inversely to angle of wave energy spreading. In addition it was ascertain that the greatest transfiguration of profile was accompanied by existence of bound infragravity waves, smaller part of its energy and shorter mean wave period as well as more significant roller energy.
6
Korzinin, Dmitry, Dmitry Korzinin, Igor Leontiev e Igor Leontiev. "SOME FEATURES OF THE EQUILIBRIUM COASTAL PROFILE FOR DIFFERENT INITIAL BED SLOPES BASED ON MODELLING STUDY". In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b93fd2e0c53.97891311.
Resumo:
Modelling study of the equilibrium profiles formed on sandy coasts of different bed slopes and grain sizes under the various wave conditions was realized by using the CROSS-P and Xbeach morphodynamic models. A special criterion taking into account a total volume of bed deformations per one hour was suggested to determine the conditions of profile stabilization. For both models the time scales of equilibrium profile formation were found to be the same. However, the deformation magnitudes differed significantly. Bed deformations were computed on the whole profile length over the 200-hours duration of wave impact. It was concluded that both models predict a trend of the bed slope toward a stable value. CROSS-P model shows the widening of accumulative terrace during the profile evolution. The mean slope of the equilibrium profile was found to depend on the initial bed slope.
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Korzinin, Dmitry, Dmitry Korzinin, Igor Leontiev e Igor Leontiev. "SOME FEATURES OF THE EQUILIBRIUM COASTAL PROFILE FOR DIFFERENT INITIAL BED SLOPES BASED ON MODELLING STUDY". In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b431567f89c.
Resumo:
Modelling study of the equilibrium profiles formed on sandy coasts of different bed slopes and grain sizes under the various wave conditions was realized by using the CROSS-P and Xbeach morphodynamic models. A special criterion taking into account a total volume of bed deformations per one hour was suggested to determine the conditions of profile stabilization. For both models the time scales of equilibrium profile formation were found to be the same. However, the deformation magnitudes differed significantly. Bed deformations were computed on the whole profile length over the 200-hours duration of wave impact. It was concluded that both models predict a trend of the bed slope toward a stable value. CROSS-P model shows the widening of accumulative terrace during the profile evolution. The mean slope of the equilibrium profile was found to depend on the initial bed slope.
8
Witte, Jan, Daniel Trümpy, Jürgen Meßner e Hans Georg Babies. "Petroleum Potential of Rift Basins in Northern Somalia – A Fresh Look". In SPE/AAPG Africa Energy and Technology Conference. SPE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/afrc-2573746-ms.
Resumo:
ABSTRACT Several wells have encountered good oil shows in the rift basins of northern Somalia, however, without finding commercial hydrocarbons to date. It is widely accepted that these basins have a similar tectonic evolution and a comparable sedimentary fill as the highly productive rift basins in Yemen from which they have been separated by the opening of the Gulf of Aden (fully established in Mid Oligocene). We present new regional tectonic maps, new basement outcrop maps, a new structural transect and new play maps, specifically for the Odewayne, Nogal, Daroor and Socotra Basins. Digital terrain data, satellite images, surface geology maps (varying scales), oil seep/slick maps, potential data (gravity), well data from ~50 wells and data from scientific publications were compiled into a regional GIS-database, so that different data categories could be spatially analyzed. To set the tectonic framework, the outlines of the basins under investigation were re-mapped, paying particular attention to crystalline basement outcrops. A set of play maps was established. We recognize at least three source rocks, five reservoirs and at least three regional seals to be present in the area (not all continuously present). Numerous oil seeps are documented, particularly in the Nogal and Odewayne Basins, indicative of ongoing migration or re-migration. Data from exploration wells seem to further support the presence of active petroleum systems, especially in the central Nogal, western Nogal and central Daroor Basins. Our GIS-based data integration confirms that significant hydrocarbon potential remains in the established rift basins, such as the Nogal and Daroor Basins. Additionally, there are a number of less known satellite basins (on and offshore) which can be mapped out and that remain completely undrilled. All of these basins have to be considered frontier basins, due to their poorly understood geology, remoteness, marketing issues and missing oil infrastructure, making the economic risks significant. However, we believe that through acquisition of new seismic data, geochemical analysis, basin modelling and, ultimately, exploration drilling these risks can be mitigated to a point where the economic risks become acceptable. We encourage explorers to conduct regional basin analysis, data integration, a GIS-based approach and modern structural geology concepts to tackle key issues, such as trap architecture, structural timing, migration pathways and breaching risks.
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Wang, Yunxiao Nick, Emil Maschner e Colin McKinnon. "Pipeline Walking Interaction With Buckle Formations Along Routes With Significant Seabed Features". In ASME 2012 31st International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2012-83359.
Resumo:
In the last few years some ‘long’ HPHT (high pressure high temperature) offshore pipelines have been required to be routed across challenging seabed terrains such as salt diapirs and deep trenches with relatively large OOS (out of straightness) and steep slopes. This has given rise to a combined design concern of lateral buckling with pipeline walking. Typically anchor points in the form of caisson piles as well as buckle sites in the form of sleepers or buoyancy modules maybe required in the vicinity of the seabed features to release the compressive forces associated with the high pressure and temperature loads in a controlled manner and to prevent the pipelines from migrating down slope during operation. The instigation of buckle sites can essentially divide any ‘long’ pipelines into a number of short sections with different walking behaviour due to varying seabed slopes and varying pressure and temperature gradients at locations along the route. In addition pipeline anchors influence the development of any planned buckle site and thus limit the extent of cyclic feed-in and/or pull-out. This integrated mechanism is termed buckling walking interaction within this paper. The prevailing methodology and numerical modelling of pipeline walking usually evaluates ratcheting end expansions by means of ‘short’ and overall ‘long’ pipe lengths which ignore or consider the existence of buckle sites along any pipeline route respectively. This paper presents a general-purpose study on the phenomenon of buckling walking interaction considering a typical pipe route configuration with anchors and buckles along its length. Aspects such as the cyclic evolution of mode shapes of buckles and the effect of soil berm resistance on buckling walking interaction are explored. Finally the design application of buckling walking interaction for ‘long’ cyclically constrained pipelines with buckles and anchors is discussed.
Relatórios de organizações sobre o assunto "Risk terrain modelling":
1
Aalto, Juha, e Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, junho de 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.
Resumo:
Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
2
Davies, Will. Improving the engagement of UK armed forces overseas. Royal Institute of International Affairs, janeiro de 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55317/9781784135010.
Resumo:
The UK government’s Integrated Review of security, defence, development and foreign policy, published in March 2021 alongside a supporting defence command paper, set a new course for UK national security and highlighted opportunities for an innovative approach to international engagement activity. The Integrated Review focused principally on the state threats posed by China’s increasing power and by competitors – including Russia – armed with nuclear, conventional and hybrid capabilities. It also stressed the continuing risks to global security and resilience due to conflict and instability in weakened and failed states. These threats have the potential to increase poverty and inequality, violent extremism, climate degradation and the forced displacement of people, while presenting authoritarian competitors with opportunities to enhance their geopolitical influence. There are moral, security and economic motives to foster durable peace in conflict-prone and weakened regions through a peacebuilding approach that promotes good governance, addresses the root causes of conflict and prevents violence, while denying opportunities to state competitors. The recent withdrawal from Afghanistan serves to emphasize the complexities and potential pitfalls associated with intervention operations in complex, unstable regions. Success in the future will require the full, sustained and coordinated integration of national, allied and regional levers of power underpinned by a sophisticated understanding of the operating environment. The UK armed forces, with their considerable resources and global network, will contribute to this effort through ‘persistent engagement’. This is a new approach to overseas operations below the threshold of conflict, designed as a pre-emptive complement to warfighting. To achieve this, the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) must develop a capability that can operate effectively in weak, unstable and complex regions prone to violent conflict and crises, not least in the regions on the eastern and southern flanks of the Euro-Atlantic area. The first step must be the development of a cohort of military personnel with enhanced, tailored levels of knowledge, skills and experience. Engagement roles must be filled by operators with specialist knowledge, skills and experience forged beyond the mainstream discipline of combat and warfighting. Only then will individuals develop a genuinely sophisticated understanding of complex, politically driven and sensitive operating environments and be able to infuse the design and delivery of international activities with practical wisdom and insight. Engagement personnel need to be equipped with: An inherent understanding of the human and political dimensions of conflict, the underlying drivers such as inequality and scarcity, and the exacerbating factors such as climate change and migration; - A grounding in social sciences and conflict modelling in order to understand complex human terrain; - Regional expertise enabled by language skills, cultural intelligence and human networks; - Familiarity with a diverse range of partners, allies and local actors and their approaches; - Expertise in building partner capacity and applying defence capabilities to deliver stability and peace; - A grasp of emerging artificial intelligence technology as a tool to understand human terrain; - Reach and insight developed through ‘knowledge networks’ of external experts in academia, think-tanks and NGOs. Successful change will be dependent on strong and overt advocacy by the MOD’s senior leadership and a revised set of personnel policies and procedures for this cohort’s selection, education, training, career management, incentivization, sustainability and support.