Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Behaviour Change Index"

Reptile behaviour and welfare are understudied in comparison with mammals. In this study, behavioural data on three species (Astrochelys radiata, Stigmochelys pardalis, Aldabrachelys gigantea) of tortoises were recorded before and after an environmental change which was anticipated to be positive in nature. The environmental changes differed for each population, but included a substantial increase in enclosure size, the addition of substrate material, and a change in handling procedure. A tortoise-specific ethogram was created to standardise data collection. Focal behaviour sampling was used to collect behavioural data. Changes in the duration of performance of co-occupant interaction and object interaction in the leopard (Stigmochelys pardalis) and Aldabra (Aldabrachelys gigantea) tortoises were observed following the environmental changes. The Shannon–Weiner diversity index did not yield a significant increase after the changes but had a numerical increase which was relatively greater for the leopard tortoise group, which had experienced the greatest environmental change. The leopard tortoises also demonstrated changes in a greater number of behaviours compared to the other species, and this was sustained over the study period. However, this included a behaviour indicative of negative affect: aggression. Whilst we are unable to conclude that welfare was improved by the management changes, there are suggestions that behavioural diversity increased, and some promotion of positive social behaviours occurred.

AbstractIn a system in which cows are grouped and given differential access to feeding bins with different rations, and where these groups change over time, it is important to find out how a change in the ration (and hence feeding bin) affects the cow's feeding behaviour. Monitoring the locomotion of cows can be used to predict oestrus and improve health (lameness diagnosis), but activity monitors can also be used to estimate both activity and numbers of feeding visits by cows. Ice tag activity monitors were attached to the right hind legs of ten cows. Walking, standing, lying data and health records were used to record changes before and after a change in each cow's feeding bin. Results comparing activity before and after feeding bin change revealed significant increases in motion index, number of steps taken per minute and number of lying bouts per minute (all P < 0.001). Comparing the behaviours of cows subsequently followed during the dry period showed significant differences in motion indices and number of steps taken per minute (P < 0.001) in the dry period. The results indicate that cows are affected by feeding bin change and group change, which can lead to an increase in behaviour associated with the stress response, especially in heifers.

On the basis of a reinterpretation of the International Sexuality Description Project (ISDP) data, we suggest that findings are consistent with the view that human reproductive behaviour is largely under social control. Behaviours associated with a high Sociosexual Orientation Index (SOI) may be part of a progressive change in reproductive behaviour initiated by the dispersal of kin that occurs as societies modernize.

AbstractBackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) experience significant inequalities in health and well-being. They are the group in the UK at the highest risk of acquiring a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Guidance relating to both HIV infection prevention, in general, and individual-level behaviour change interventions, in particular, is very limited.ObjectivesTo conduct an evidence synthesis of the clinical effectiveness of behaviour change interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviour among MSM after a negative HIV infection test. To identify effective components within interventions in reducing HIV risk-related behaviours and develop a candidate intervention. To host expert events addressing the implementation and optimisation of a candidate intervention.Data sourcesAll major electronic databases (British Education Index, BioMed Central, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, EMBASE, Educational Resource Index and Abstracts, Health and Medical Complete, MEDLINE, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, PubMed and Social Science Citation Index) were searched between January 2000 and December 2014.Review methodsA systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of individual behaviour change interventions was conducted. Interventions were examined using the behaviour change technique (BCT) taxonomy, theory coding assessment, mode of delivery and proximity to HIV infection testing. Data were summarised in narrative review and, when appropriate, meta-analysis was carried out. Supplemental analyses for the development of the candidate intervention focused on post hoc realist review method, the assessment of the sequential delivery and content of intervention components, and the social and historical context of primary studies. Expert panels reviewed the candidate intervention for issues of implementation and optimisation.ResultsOverall, trials included in this review (n = 10) demonstrated that individual-level behaviour change interventions are effective in reducing key HIV infection risk-related behaviours. However, there was considerable clinical and methodological heterogeneity among the trials. Exploratory meta-analysis showed a statistically significant reduction in behaviours associated with high risk of HIV transmission (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.91). Additional stratified analyses suggested that effectiveness may be enhanced through face-to-face contact immediately after testing, and that theory-based content and BCTs drawn from ‘goals and planning’ and ‘identity’ groups are important. All evidence collated in the review was synthesised to develop a candidate intervention. Experts highlighted overall acceptability of the intervention and outlined key ways that the candidate intervention could be optimised to enhance UK implementation.LimitationsThere was a limited number of primary studies. All were from outside the UK and were subject to considerable clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity. The findings of the meta-analysis must therefore be treated with caution. The lack of detailed intervention manuals limited the assessment of intervention content, delivery and fidelity.ConclusionsEvidence regarding the effectiveness of behaviour change interventions suggests that they are effective in changing behaviour associated with HIV transmission. Exploratory stratified meta-analyses suggested that interventions should be delivered face to face and immediately after testing. There are uncertainties around the generalisability of these findings to the UK setting. However, UK experts found the intervention acceptable and provided ways of optimising the candidate intervention.Future workThere is a need for well-designed, UK-based trials of individual behaviour change interventions that clearly articulate intervention content and demonstrate intervention fidelity.Study registrationThe study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014009500.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Expansive soils go through significant volume changes due to seasonal moisture variations resulting in ground movements. The ground movement related problems are likely to worsen in the future due to climate change. It is important to understand and incorporate likely future changes in design to ensure the resilience of structures built on such soils. However, there has been a limited amount of work quantifying the effect of climate change on expansive soils movement and related behaviour of structures. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) is one of the commonly used climate classifiers in quantifying the effect of atmospheric boundary on soil behaviour. Using the long-term weather data and predicted future changes under different emission scenarios, a series of TMI maps are developed for South Australia. Potential changes in ground movement are then estimated for a selected area using a simplified methodology where the effect of future climate is captured through changes in TMI. Results indicate that South Australia is likely to face a significant reduction in TMI under all emission scenarios considered in this study. The changes in TMI will lead to a considerable increase in potential ground movement which will influence the behaviour of structures built on them and in some areas may lead to premature failure if not considered in the design.

This paper presents a new approach to cost analysis of family planning programmes that focuses on behaviour change of programme clients as the final ‘output’ rather than units of contraceptive services delivered, as does the familiar couple-years-of-protection index. It is useful to know how much it costs to deliver a unit of contraceptive services, but it would also seem useful to know how much it costs to change a prospective client’s behaviour. The proposed approach rests on the familiar ‘steps to behaviour change’ paradigm and: (1) develops a methodology for applying a client-behaviour-change-centred cost analysis to programme activities; (2) tests the methodology and concepts by applying them retrospectively to a case study of mass media interventions in Egypt; (3) derives cost per unit of behaviour changes for these Egyptian communications campaigns to demonstrate the workability of the approach. This framework offers a new approach to impact evaluation that would seem to be applicable to other components of family planning and reproductive health programmes.

Background: A healthy lifestyle for children is important for future health. Aims: To identify temporal patterns of change in body mass index (BMI) and associated health behaviour among 6–16-year-old children and young people in Sweden. Methods: A quantitative design with longitudinal cluster analysis. Findings: School-age children and young people tended to maintain their BMI categories established at the age of 6 years or when they entered the fourth grade, and the categories were stable in age and gender over time. Conclusions: Healthy behaviours affecting BMI should be established before children begin school. Although slight changes in children's categories of BMI may occur once they reach school age, the categories established at preschool generally persist at least until the age of 16 years. Because school-age children and young people generally maintain their categories throughout their school years, early preventive work regarding BMI and health behaviour is needed with particular focus on overweight and obese children and young people.

The behaviour of nature depends on the different components of climates. Among these, temperature and rainfall are two of the most important components which are known to change plant productivity. Peatlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on the Earth, which is due to its high biodiversity, huge soil carbon storage, and its sensitivity to different environmental factors. With the rapid growth in industrialization, the climate change is becoming a big concern. Therefore, this work is focused on the behaviour of Sphagnum peatland in Poland, subjected to environment manipulation. Here it has been shown how a simple reflectance based technique can be used to assess the impact of climate change on peatland. The experimental setup consists of four plots with two kind of manipulations (control, warming, reduced precipitation, and a combination of warming and reduced precipitation). Reflectance data were measured twice in August 2017 under a clear sky. Vegetation indices (VIs) such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv), MERIS terrestrial chlorophyll index (MTCI), Green chlorophyll index (CIgreen), Simple Ration (SR), and Water Band Index (WBI) were calculated to trace the impact of environmental manipulation on the plant community. Leaf Area Index of vascular plants was also measured for the purpose to correlate it with different VIs. The observation predicts that the global warming of 1°C may cause a significant change in peatland behaviour which can be tracked and monitored by simple remote sensing indices.

Accurate measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very important. A number of variables/indicators have been used as a measure of the stance of monetary policy the world over. These include growth rates of monetary aggregates and credit aggregates, short-term interest rate as used by Sims (1992), index of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as suggested by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and reintroduced by Romer and Romer (1989), monetary policy index constructed by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique with prior information from Central Bank such as Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998), and Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)—which is the focus of this paper—constructed by and used by Bank of Canada [Freedman (1995)], taking into consideration the interest rate and exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a small open economy. In case of open economy it is assumed that the monetary policy affects the economy and the prime objective of monetary policy, rate of inflation, through two important transmission mechanisms. These transmission channels are; interest rate channel and exchange rate channel. The working of the first channel is that the interest rate influences the level of expenditures, investment and subsequently domestic demand. The change in official interest rate effects the market rates of interest both short term as well as long term interest rates. This change in market rates of interest is transmitted to the bank lending rates and saving rates. The change in saving rate effects the spending behaviour of individuals (consumption) whereas the change in bank lending rate effects the investment behaviour of firms (investment). The change in aggregate consumption and investment has direct link to the gross domestic product (GDP).

The aim of this paper is to study municipal green bonds as fixed-income instruments used for environmentally friendly projects. This research was motivated by the absence of an effective global CO2 pricing scheme, making green bonds one of the most important instruments to tackle climate change. After an overview of the U.S. municipal green bond market, yields of municipal green bonds vs. ordinary municipal bonds were analysed. S&P U.S. Municipal Green Bond Index and S&P U.S. Municipal Bond Index were used in the study. The methodological framework includes a review of relevant literature, descriptive statistics with correlation analysis and hypotheses testing. As initially expected, significant positive correlation between green bond and ordinary bond yields was found, where green municipal bonds generate slightly lower yields than otherwise similar ordinary bonds. The existence of a statistically significant yield discount, i.e., a green premium, has not been confirmed.

This article presents an analysis of the pro active social behavior construct based on the sociallearning theory. Self efficacy is briefly reviewed and discussed in the context of Bandura' s conceptual work. Reference is made to cognitive variables such as values and beliefs, as fundamental principies in the development of the pro active social behavior. I examine che distinctions between fears of failure, success, and rejection as they relate to the process of self sabotage. Comments are made on the transformation of meaning and its benefits on fear extinction. Finally, I briefly describe the principies of the associative neurophysiological conditioning as a therapeutic program for the management of emocional states by the individual.
Este artículo presenta un análisis del Comportamiento Social Pro Activo utilizando como modelo la teoría del aprendizaje social. Se revisa el concepto de autoeficacia, originalmente propuesto por Bandura, y se hace referencia a variables de tipo cognitivo tales como los sistemas de valores y creencias. Se examinan las distinciones entre el temor al fracaso, al éxito, al rechazo, y su relación con el proceso de autosabotaje. Asimismo se discute la importancia de la transformación del significado y sus beneficios en la extinción del temor. Se presenta un modelo conceptual del control de los estados emocionales y sus implicancias en el proceso de la acción. Finalmente, se describen las premisas fundamentales del Condicionamiento Neurofisiológico Asociativo como un programa terapéutico que facilita el manejo de los estados emocionales de la persona.

Mental health professionals could be interested in finding how inappropriate behavior could be modified, especially when there are people that changes without treatment. This article explains how people change with a transteorical model of stages and processes. Psychological research shows that there are five stages in behavior modification: pre-contemplation, contemplation, preparation, action and maintenance. Besides, subjects have common processes in every stage.
Concita el interés de los profesionales de la salud mental el descubrir cómo se modifican los comportamientos desadaptativos, más aún existiendo gente que cambia sin tratamiento. Este artículo explica, a partir de un modelo transteórico de etapas y procesos, cómo cambia la gente. Las investigaciones, cada vez más, corroboran que en la modificación de los comportamientos existen 5 etapas: precontemplación, contemplación, preparación, acción y mantenimiento. Además los sujetos siguen procesos comunes en cada una de estas etapas.

Master of Science
Department of Food, Nutrition, Dietetics and Health
Sara K. Rosenkranz
Evidence from physical activity interventions suggests that women, in particular, may overcompensate for exercise energy expenditure by increasing caloric intake. Sedentary behavior and poor diet quality are independent risk factors for many major chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is unknown whether insufficiently active women alter dietary quality or caloric intake when participating in an intervention to reduce sedentary behavior. Insufficiently active women (n=49) working full-time sedentary jobs were randomized into one of two 8-week sedentary interventions occurring during the work week [short breaks (SB) (1-2 min every half hour, n=24) or long breaks (LB) (15 min twice daily, n=25)]. Dietary information was collected through 3-day food records at baseline, week 4 and week 8. Dietary quality was assessed using the Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010). CVD risk factors (systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), fasting cholesterol, triglycerides, and blood glucose, and body mass index) were assessed at baseline and week 8. For all participants there were no changes in AHEI-2010 scores over time (baseline: M=53.4, 95% CI [49.2, 57.6], week 4: M=50.3, 95% CI [45.9, 54.7], week 8: M=48.4, 95% CI [44.1, 52.7], p>0.05). Average caloric intake in the SB group (baseline: M=1943.8 kcals/day, 95% CI [1716.2, 2171.5], week 4: M=1728.8 kcals/day, 95% CI [1462.4, 1995.2], week 8: M=1616.8 kcals/day, 95% CI [1450.2, 1783.4]) decreased significantly from baseline to week 4 (p=0.015) and baseline to week 8 (p=0.002). There were no significant changes in caloric intake in the LB group (p>0.05) at either time point. In all participants, absolute changes in LDL were positively correlated with absolute changes in caloric intake (r=0.473, p=0.005). There were no other significant associations between changes in dietary quality or caloric intake with changes in any other CVD risk factor (p>0.05). Following an 8-week sedentary intervention in the workplace, insufficiently active women did not alter their dietary quality, but decreased caloric intake. Future research should explore sedentary interventions compared to physical activity interventions in women as a means to create negative energy balance, as sedentary breaks throughout the day may be effective for improving health outcomes.

The emphasis of the study was to determine the degree of correlation between the Conicity Index and known risk factors for heart disease. Conicity Index was shown in one study to be a useful screening tool in assessing the relationship between body composition and risk for heart disease. This study was designed to provide nutrition education and teach lifestyle modification to fourteen Veteran's Affairs patients. Change in specific risk factors including Waist-to-Hip Ratio, Body Mass Index, serum lipid levels and dietary intakes were correlated with change in Conicity Index over the six month study. Results from the present study did not suggest that the Conicity Index would serve as an effective screening tool for the present population. Mean body weight, body mass index, hip circumference, cholesterol and triglyceride levels, total caloric and fat intake all decreased significantly as a result of the program. Through nutrition education, behavior modification and group support, the risk for heart disease was successfully modified in this population.
Department of Family and Consumer Sciences

This article reviews research and professional trends in the field of health psychology and behavioral medicine. I also discuss recent research on stress, immune system, behavioral change and health promotion. An increasing focus on the human immunodeficiencyvirus (HN/AIDS) is very important given the Rde of health psychology in terms of prevencing further spread of the epidemic and in maintaining a good qualiry of life. I examined psychosocial and immune system stress responses in individuals before and after their nocification of HN status andas a consequence of stress management intervention procedures. Psychological and social factors in the development of illness are considered.
Este articulo revisa líneas de investigación y profesionales en el campo de la psicología de la salud y la medicina conductual. Se discuten investigaciones recientes acerca del estrés, el sistema inmunológico, los cambios conducruales y la promoción de la salud. Un énfasis en el virus de inmunodeficiencia (HN/SIDA) es muy importante dado el rol de la psicología de la salud para prevenir la expansión de la epidemia y mantener una buena calidad de vida. Se han examinado las respuestas psicosociales y del sistema inmunológico de individuos antes y después de ser notificados de su status de HN y como consecuencia de los procedimientos de intervención para manejar el estrés. Se consideran los factores psicológicos y sociológicos en el desarrollo de la enfermedad.

Title from PDF of title page (University of Missouri--Columbia, viewed on Feb 26, 2010). The entire thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file; a non-technical public abstract appears in the public.pdf file. Dissertation advisor: Dr. Phillip Messner. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

This thesis examined body dissatisfaction and body change behaviors among adolescent girls and boys from a biopsychosocial framework. The contribution of biological, psychological and sociocultural factors were examined in relation to body dissatisfaction, weight loss, weight gain and increased muscle tone behaviors among early adolescent girls and boys. In particular, pubertal maturation, body mass index (BMI), perception of body shape and size and psychological factors, such as depression, anxiety, ineffectiveness, self-esteem and perfectionism, were examined as possible factors that may precipitate or maintain body dissatisfaction and engagement in body change strategies. The sociocultural factors evaluated were the quality of family and peer relationships, as well as the influence of family and peers in predicting the adoption of specific body change strategies. The specific mechanisms by which these influences were transmitted were also examined. These included perceived discussion, encouragement and modelling of various body change strategies, as well as perceived teasing about body shape and size. A number of separate cross-sectional and longitudinal studies were conducted to examine the above relationships and identify the factors that contribute to weight loss, weight gain and increased muscle tone behaviors in adolescents. Study 1 examined the psychometric properties and principal components structure of the Bulimia Test Revised (BULIT-R; Thelen, Farmer, Wonderlich, & Smith, 1991) to assess its applicability to adolescent samples. Study 2 investigated the nature of body dissatisfaction and weight loss behaviors among 603 adolescents (306 girls and 297 boys) using a standardised questionnaire. This preliminary study was conducted to ascertain whether variables previously found to be relevant to adolescent girls, could also be related to the development of body dissatisfaction and weight loss behaviors among adolescent boys. Studies 3 and 4 described the development and validation of a body modification scale that measured weight loss, weight gain and increased muscle tone behaviors. Studies 5 and 6 were designed to modify an Excessive Exercise Scale developed by Long, Smith, Midgley, and Cassidy (1993) into a shorter form, and validate this scale with an adolescent sample. Study 7 investigated the factors that contribute to weight loss, weight gain and increased muscle among adolescent girls and boys both cross-sectionally and longitudinally (over one year). Structural equation modelling was used to examine associations among self-reported body dissatisfaction, body change strategies and a range of biological, psychological and sociocultural variables both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Overall, the results suggested that both girls and boys experience body dissatisfaction and engage in a number of different body change strategies in order to achieve an ideal size. A number of gender similarities and differences were identified in the expression of body dissatisfaction and the adoption of body change strategies for both girls and boys. Girls were more likely than boys to report body dissatisfaction and engage in weight loss behaviors, while boys were more likely than girls to engage in weight gain and increased muscle tone behaviors. Generally, the same factors were found to contribute to weight loss, and more specifically, bulimic symptomatology, ad weight gain in both adolescent girls and boys. While a combination of biological, psychological and sociocultural factors contributed to bulimic symptomatology, only biological and psychological factors were found to contribute to weight gain in adolescents. The most notable gender differences were found in the model of increased muscle tone. Sociocultural and biological factors contributed to increased muscle tone behaviors in girls, while sociocultural and psychological factors were implicated in these behaviors in adolescent boys. With the exception of the model of increased muscle tone for boys, body dissatisfaction was a consistent factor in the adoption of body change behaviors. Consistent with previous investigations, the present thesis provides empirical support for the need to examine the etiology and maintenance of such concerns and behaviors from a multifaceted perspective.

The older adult population and the number of older adults who rely primarily on driving as their means of transportation in later life are increasing. Older adults experience changes due to aging and age-related diseases that may put them at increased risk of crashes and other unsafe driving behaviours. Considerable evidence has demonstrated that some older adults compensate for their declining abilities by voluntarily restricting their own driving to limit exposure to risky driving situations or by stopping driving altogether. Since mobility is critical for maintaining the independence and quality of life of the older adult, it is important to examine factors that influence driving behaviours of older adults and to promote their safe driving for as long as possible. It has been suggested that driving cessation might occur in discrete stages of driving restriction culminating in driving cessation. Yet, the application of TM to older driver behaviour has not been explored in detail. Thus, the purpose of this research was to explore older adults’ perceptions and experiences of the process of older driver behaviour change within the TM framework. Drivers and former drivers (both men and women) aged 71-94 years of age completed a health and demographic questionnaire and participated in either a digitally recorded semi-structured individual interview or a group discussion. Participants were asked a series of pre-determined questions and probes tailored for either current or former drivers to examine this process. The recordings were transcribed and reviewed for themes related to driving behaviour change. The participants exhibited a wide variety of perceptions and experiences related to the process of driving behaviour change in aging. Their driving behaviour in aging could be divided into 2 general classes: those who changed their driving with age and those who did not. The spectrum of experiences ranged from those who gradually imposed restrictions on their driving with age (“the gradual restrictors”) or made plans for stopping (“the preparers”) to those who always employed driving restrictions throughout their driving history (“the consistent”) or those who made no or only minor changes to their driving behaviour with age (“the non-changers”). Some preliminary support for TM within the driving context was found and recommendations for extensions to the TM model were suggested. Further exploration of driving behaviour change within the TM framework is warranted. The findings from this study may be appropriate for use in designing educational strategies and interventions aimed at helping older adults remain on the road safely longer or stop driving, if needed.

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Obesity is the most common nutritional disorder affecting children in the developed world. The marked increase in prevalence is linked to environmental and behavioural changes; children’s energy expenditure has undoubtedly decreased. Obese children often become obese adults; children from lower socioeconomic groups are more likely to be obese. Obesity is a risk factor for ischaemic heart disease, hypertension, stroke, type 2 diabetes, depression, and certain cancers. There is no proven preventive strategy but limiting time in front of computer and TV screens appears important. Obese children are relatively tall; the combination of obesity with short stature suggests underlying disease (e.g. hypothyroidism; Cushing’s syndrome should be considered). Treatment should be considered if body mass index is greater than the 98th centile and the family are willing to make the necessary lifestyle changes. Drug and surgical treatments have a role in a small number of children, but should always be used on a background of a behavioural weight management programme.

How can we reduce economic violence? Can financial literacy and education enhance economic wellbeing? The present paper reports the results of a research conducted by ALTIS – Università Cattolica and Global Thinking Foundation for the evaluation of changes, improvements and consequences produced by the educational course in financial literacy ‘Donne al quadrato’, provided by the Foundation among the policies against economic violence implementation. In this study, impacts’ measurement refers to conceptual framework of financial wellbeing, a composite notion constructed of objective and subjective dimensions related to people’s financial behaviour. The expression ‘Financial Wellbeing’ highlights how economic issues are inextricably bound to individual and social wellness. Helping people enhancing their own financial wellbeing – in a broad sense – should then be the very first purpose of economic education activity. In the present research, financial wellbeing has been measured by the implementation of a synthetic index, based on studies of World Bank and University of Bristol. The index is intended to measure people’s self-sufficiency and independence about their financial situation, resources and capabilities. The indicator takes into account both micro and macro features, being the first ones specific of the sample analysed and latter territorial context variables employed for the removal of the macroeconomic changes affecting the entire population from the specific changes proceeding from the training. The trial, involving different Italian regions, has been fulfilled by the administration of a tailoredmade survey pre and post the “Donne al Quadrato” course, during academic year 2019/2020, in order to register the change occurred in the respondents’ perception of their knowledge, behaviour, personality and aptitudes. The results of the experimentation demonstrated that financial education could engender the modification not only of knowledge but also of awareness and proficiency in financial behaviours, as well as the increase of course participants’ financial wellbeing.

AbstractClimate change strongly affects the health of sub-Saharan African populations. Effective adaptation strategies are required in order to enhance their limited adaptive capacities. The DFG-funded Research Unit (RU) “Climate change and health in sub-Saharan Africa” unites nine research institutions from Burkina Faso, Kenya, Germany, and Switzerland that will design, implement, and evaluate four different adaptation projects in these two African countries from 2020 until 2022.First, the effectiveness of an agro-biodiversification and nutrition program will be established for the reduction of child undernutrition of climate-sensitive nutrients in rural Burkina Faso and Kenya. Two respective cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCT) will be conducted, each consisting of 2 × 600 children. Second, another cRCT will be conducted among 2 × 300 households in rural Burkina Faso to investigate how sunlight-reflecting cool-roof coatings affect human health outcomes, including cardiovascular and heat-related outcomes. Further outcomes comprise indoor temperature, carbon footprint, and productivity. Third, an index-based weather insurance (IBWI) will be introduced in rural Burkina Faso. The effects of IBWI on childhood nutritional status, dietary behavior, and healthcare seeking will be determined in 2 × 20 villages. Fourth, microbial larviciding has been evaluated as a promising environmental control for malaria vectors in Burkina Faso. Here, the interactions between climatic factors and the effectiveness of the intervention will be tested using spatiotemporal models.

Wildland fires, especially the large ones, are becoming a growing problem in the climate changing world. More frequent and long-lasting drought conditions accompanied by high temperatures and heat waves, significantly increase fuel flammability, particularly during the summer period. The wildland fire occurrence and behaviour are to a large degree weather driven and thus strongly depend on the meteorological parameters such as humidity, temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, as well as on the amount of fuel load. The relationship between weather and fire occurrence and behaviour is included in Canadian Fire Weather Index system, which has been used in Croatia for fire risk assessment since 1982. In this paper, the characteristics of the Fire Weather Index components are analysed for large fires in the Adriatic region of Croatia. Fire weather indices were evaluated for 103 wildland fires with a burned area over 400 ha that occurred during summer fire seasons in the period from 2003 to 2021. Obtained median values of the moisture indices, as well as the fire behaviour indices (FFMC 93, DMC 139, DC 649, ISI 13, BUI 182 and FWI 45) showed values designated as high and very high in the available literature. The climate change will continue to increase the fire risk, and thus the possibility of large fires, so this analysis can provide a baseline for improvements and recalibration of the fire danger classes in the Adriatic area of Croatia. Along with the improved fire weather warnings, this will give a better and more accurate information about the increased wildland fire risk and the possibility of large fires.

Wildfire spread is influenced significantly by weather fluctuations. Specifically, wind speed and direction (wind vector) change can drastically alter fire intensity and spread. Wind vector change can result from synoptic or mesoscale weather systems and small-scale meteorological processes, such as thermal circulations and low-level wind shear in complex terrain. These small-scale processes are usually underrepresented in numerical weather forecasting models, usually needing to be resolved by more expensive sub-kilometre grid resolution simulations. Recent New Zealand wildfires, such as 2017 Port Hills and 2019 Pigeon Valley wildfires, experienced wind change due to local sea breezes and strong nocturnal downslopes flows, exacerbating fire behaviour. The aim of this research is to investigate if vector wind change (VWC) can be a metric to better represent the effect of mesoscale and microscale weather and the subsequent impact in extreme fire behavior. This was achieved utilizing hourly VWC, or the difference in magnitude of the hourly wind vectors, from the Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) national network of more than 200 weather monitoring stations. An additional variable, wind direction change (WDC), was also calculated to include the degree change of wind direction. To identify high-risk stations, the top 20% of stations for VWC and WDC were calculated and investigated spatially across the New Zealand landscape. The high-risk stations are located primarily on the South Island, inland and in areas of complex terrain. There is little to no variation of these stations when mapped in each synoptic type, suggesting that the main factor in determining high VWC and WDC is meso and microscale terrain driven meteorology as opposed to larger synoptic regimes. Critically, the current fire risk metric, the Fire Weather Index, does not include wind direction changes at high windspeeds. Therefore, the inclusion of VWC and WDC as additional metrics in fire risk calculations could increase operational understanding of high-risk locations and terrain impacts on extreme and unpredictable fire behavior.

Abstract As forecasted and anticipated by experts and economists, Q1, 2020 results showed a major contraction in the growth of the Indian economy. Looking ahead, data for economic indicators in August 2020 brought some cheer and a ray of hope for the Indian economy. Economists were deliberating in terms of the country witnessing a V- shaped recovery as the economy slowly and steadily unlocked and regulations were eased. McKinsey in July 2020 had indicated that consumer sentiments were at a low and reflective of the uncertainty created by the virus. The chapter discusses how there had been a shift to mindful shopping including some trading down of value. It delves into how the novel coronavirus had led to a behavioural change in consumers and changed consumer preferences. RBI, in its Consumer Confidence Survey report published on 6 August 2020, stated that consumer confidence had plummeted in July 2020 with the Current Situation Index (CSI) show an all-time- time low. With consumers hesitant to step out of their homes to shop, there was an absence of the demonstration effect of customers. The unprecedented situation created by the virus required organizations to go back to the drawing board and re-strategize. The chapter discusses how with the festival season coming up and keeping in mind that consumer behaviour was influenced deeply by cultural factors, brands and companies could have explored utilizing the ‘Nudge theory’ in wooing back customers.

Pressure drop and electroviscous effects in the axisymmetric, steady, fully developed, pressure-driven flow of incompressible power-law fluids through a cylindrical microchannel at low Reynolds number (Re = 0.01) have been investigated. The Poisson-Boltzmann equation (describing the electrical potential) and the momentum equations in conjunction with electrical force and power-law fluid rheology have been solved numerically using the finite difference method. The pipe wall is considered to have uniform surface charge density (S = 4) and the liquid is assumed to be a symmetric electrolyte solution. In particular, the influence of the dimensionless inverse Debye length (K = 2, 20) and power-law flow behaviour index (n = 0.2, 1, 1.8) on the EDL potential, ion concentrations and charge density profiles, induced electrical field strength, velocity and viscosity profiles and pressure drop have been studied. As expected, the local EDL potential, local charge density and electrical field strength increases with decreasing K and/or increasing S. The velocity profiles cross-over away from the charged pipe wall with increasing K and/or decreasing n. The maximum velocity at the center of the pipe increases with increasing n and/or increasing S and/or decreasing K. The shear-thinning fluid viscosity is strongly dependent on K and S, whereas the shear-thickening viscosity is very weakly dependent on K and S. For fixed K, as the fluid behaviour changes from Newtonian (n = 1) to shear-thinning (n &lt; 1), the induced electrical field strength increases and maximum velocity reduces. On the other hand, the change in fluid behaviour from Newtonian (n = 1) to shear-thickening (n &gt; 1) decreases the electrical field strength and increases the maximum velocity. The non-Newtonian effects on maximum velocity and pressure drop are stronger in shear-thinning fluids at small K and large S, the shear-thickening fluids show opposite influence. Electroviscous effects enhance with decreasing K and/or increasing S. The electroviscous effects show complex dependence on the non-Newtonian tendency of the fluids. The shear-thickening (n &gt; 1) fluids and/or smaller K show stronger influence on the pressure drop and thus, enhance the electroviscous effects than that in shear-thinning (n &lt; 1) fluids and/or large K where EDL is very thin.

This study discusses the spreading of a non-Newtonian, power-law, film formed after a drop impinges on a flat surface (i.e., a pharmaceutical tablet). Non-Newtonian drop spreading is described by a model based on the one of Roisman et al. [2002]. The effects of variations in non-Newtonian liquid rheological parameters m (the consistency index) and n (the fluid behavior index) are shown to be significant. In either case, changes leading to a reduction in viscous forces result in enhanced spreading of the film, followed by more rapid recession. Both are expected. Of interest is the observation that an increase in consistency index can be compensated for by a reduction in flow behavior index since the sensitivity of film recession to a change in n is larger than that to variations in m.

Nowadays, the study of polymer nanocomposites is an active area of materials development because nanofillers and in particular Multi-Wall Carbon Nanotubes (MWCNTs) can significantly improve or adjust the properties of the materials into which they were incorporated such as optical, electrical, mechanical and thermal properties. MWCNTs have been adopted in quite a number of applications, but advancements in their properties are needed for spreading their potential. Moreover their behaviour and filling properties in micro injection moulding process have still to be studied. Therefore, in this work, experimental and statistical studies were performed to analyze the parameters effect on replicating capability of micro parts manufactured in POM/MWCNT by micro injection moulding process. Two compounds with different filler fraction (3 and 6 wt%) were tested and processed with different conditions and their operating range have been pointed out and compared with that of pristine POM (PolyOxyMethilene). The results show that the filler content has the effect to change slightly the operative range of the micro injection process parameters and to increase the replicating capability. The most effective parameters on replicating capability of micro ribs, evaluated by a dimensional index, are the mould temperature for the POM/MWCNT 3% and injection velocity for the 6% filler fraction.

Abstract The aim of the diagnosis techniques usually applied in energy systems is the detection of signs of possible malfunctions, in particular those malfunctions that can cause failures, if not removed. The thermoeconomic diagnosis is applied to detect and locate possible inefficiencies of the plant components that provoke variations of the plant efficiency. Thermoeconomic diagnosis procedures are based on the comparison between the real operation conditions and carefully selected reference conditions, usually characterized by the same qualitative and quantitative plant productions. In this way a difference in the overall fuel consumption (fuel impact) is an index of the presence of malfunctions due to the component inefficiencies. The use of the thermoeconomic theories for the location of anomalies presents the problem of the induced malfunctions [1], In fact, when an anomaly takes place in a component, not only its efficiency decreases, but also other components change their behaviour, due to the modified working conditions provoked by the anomaly. The induced malfunctions have two different causes: 1) the malfunctioning component requires a larger amount of fuel to maintain constant its production, so the other components must increase their production too, thus varying their efficiency; 2) as the values of some set-point variables can have been modified, the regulation system must operate to restore its set-point value. Its action modifies the plant working conditions, inducing new malfunctions. In this paper a procedure for filtering and canceling the induced malfunctions is proposed. Hence, the devices suffering the real inefficiencies can be identified and located. The proposed procedure is based on the knowledge of the system behaviour when the regulation parameters vary. A first fictitious working condition, called free condition [2], is mathematically built, starting from the operation conditions and restoring the regulation parameters corresponding to the reference operating conditions. In this way the free condition does not include the regulation system contribution. A second state is then built for every single component in order to take into account the malfunctions induced by the degradation of the components behavior. The procedure is particularly useful when the number of malfunctions is unknown, as it happens in the usual operation of an actual plant. If the induced malfunctions are filtered, all the component inefficiencies can be identified at the same time. The proposed procedure is applied to a 33 MW gas turbine plant, also providing 63 MW of thermal power to a district-heating network. A mathematical model of the plant has been used to simulate the behavior degradation of the gas turbine devices, when several components inefficiencies occur.

A number of recent studies have focused on the possibility of using the NIR techniques to monitor a change of glucose concentration in tissue [1,2]. The basis of the method rests on the fact that a change of refractive index in the extracellular fluid due to the presence of additional glucose causes a small change in the overall scattering property of the tissue that could be detected by the NIR techniques. Chance et al [ 3] show that in lipid and yeast cell suspensions, an increase in concentration of a general solute, such as sugars and electrolytes, gives rise to a decrease in scattering factor of the suspension. These results are in good agreement with those given in Refs. 1 and 2. However, in the tissue measurement performed on a perfused rat liver, the results obtained by adding mannitol (or glucose) to the perfusate of the perfused liver displayed a behavior in contrast to those in the lipid suspensions [3] and can not be well explained by the change of only refractive index. In order to employ the NIR techniques for a broad use in noninvasive physiological monitoring, we wish to show in this paper the solute-induced correlation between optical properties in tissue and its refractive index as well as its osmolarity.

Hydraulic systems are used in many technical applications, e.g. in agricultural and forestry machines. Hydrostatic pumps and engines as well as hydraulic fluids are essential components of these systems. Thereof, the hydraulic fluids are of great importance since not only technical but also ecological requirements have to be fulfilled. Apart from fluid power transmission the most important technical function of hydraulic fluids is lubrication and the resulting reduction of friction and wear. In times when saving energy and resources have become environmental matters, lubricants are increasingly attracting public awareness. Important ecological aspects which need to be considered since they have a major impact on the application of technical products and decide about their success are biodegradability, water pollution and ecological toxicity. This is why ester based hydraulic fluids have started to substitute mineral oil based fluids. Additionally, ester based fluids have excellent tribological features due to the polarity of the ester molecules. However, ester based fluids change their physical and chemical properties due to usage. This paper will show that both the total acid number and the viscosity is increased by ageing while the level of additives and the viscosity index is decreased. Therefore, the impact of ageing on the tribological performance of an ester based hydraulic fluid will be analysed by friction and wear investigations. Exemplary, two tribological contacts are chosen: a mixed friction and an elasto-hydrodynamic contact. These are representative conditions for hydrostatic pumps and engines. Analysing the fluid’s behaviour being stressed by mixed friction is performed by using a tribometer. Investigating the ageing impact on elasto-hydrodynamic behaviour of the fluid, a bearing test facility is used. Finally, after having been dealing with tribological contacts used in hydrostatic machines the performance of a hydrostatic machine itself will be analysed. The impact of increased viscosity on friction which is generated within a hydrostatic gear unit at low speed will be discussed.

It is now well known that germanium-doped silica fibers excellent photosensitivity. A UV source changes the refractive index of the core that contains germanium. A common type of defect formed in germanium-doped silica is GeO or oxygen deficient germania related defect [1], which is bonded to three oxygen atoms, and one bond is made to a silicon/germanium atom. This has been identified as giving rise to absorption centered around 240 nm. But, typically UV induced index changes have been limited to 3×10−5 for standard single mode fibers doped with 3% germania [2]. Increasing GeO2 doping concentration and reducing the amount of oxygen used in the fabrication of the preform also enhance the fiber photosensitivity [2]. In this case, the peak index changes are usually about 5×10−4 or less. More recently, two techniques have been proposed to enhance the photosensitivity of germanium-doped silica fibers : exposure of the material to the flame of an oxygen-hydrogen burner(flame brushing method) [3], and hydrogen loading at low temperature and high pressures [4]. Lemaire [4] showed 5.9×10−3 peak-to-peak index change in the case of 3% GeO2 loaded with 3.3% H2. In long-period grating filter fabrication, hydrogen treatment is needed to get high Δn for coupling a fundamental guided mode to the cladding leaky modes efficiently. Hydrogen treated germano-silicate fiber is unstable because of H2 diffusion process. We present the growth and decay behavior of the coupling peaks induced by H2 diffusion and annealing process for stabilization.

Today agility of management cannot be realized unless given all of the following three kinds of quickness: a) quick recognition of environmental changes, b) quick decision-making on countermeasures against these changes, and c) quick implementation of the countermeasures chosen. In the business world nowadays the quickness of a) concerns information that an MIS deals with, the quickness of b) concerns use of an MIS for decision-making, and the quickness of c) concerns change of an MIS itself. With a focus on c) and assuming that flexibility is a core property that an MIS should acquire to realize agile management, our study aims to clarify how MIS flexibility should be enhanced. With this aim in mind, we will survey the sources and types of change demands on an MIS and consider in a structured way the characteristics that an MIS should have, such that they will conduce to its flexibility in dealing with these change demands. Having laid the groundwork mentioned so far, we will discuss practical methods to enhance MIS flexibility, and end by presenting our evaluation procedure for MIS flexibility. In this paper, we have focused on and presented the following: the causes of change demands on an MIS, the internal and ex external factors that an MIS should maintain to cope with change demands, and the procedure for evaluation of MIS flexibility via analysis of the relationship between the internal and external factors. Specifically, we have elucidated the following: • MIS flexibility is an index of the ability of an MIS to absorb future change demands on it. • MIS flexibility can be evaluated quantitatively in terms of the substitute index of POC (penalty of change). • MIS flexibility consists of internal and external factors. Evaluation of external factors focuses on the volume of change demands an MIS can absorb, and evaluation of internal factors focuses on the variety of strategies to evade change risks. We have treated POC as a common index to evaluate the two categories of MIS flexibility factors. • External factors of MIS flexibility are constrained by internal factors. • Renovation of MIS infrastructure means application of information technology for evasion of change risks accompanying MIS implementation. • Proper renovation of MIS infrastructure will enhance the internal characteristics of MIS flexibility. The challenges confronting us ahead are the detailed and practical studies on the following: • quantitative relationship between each internal and external factor, • behavior of cost and utility of MIS use and MIS infrastructure on the time axis.

It is critical to maintain uniformity of gasket stress in control against leakage in piping and heat exchangers. Many innovative bolting tools have been developed, but their benefit could be downgraded if there were sources disrupting initially achieved uniformity of gasket stress. The characteristics behaviors of gasket stress in flanges with NATD (Non-Axisymmetric Temperature Distribution) were studied using finite element analysis on ANSI standard flanges. It was found that change of gasket stress was independent of the magnitude of initial bolt stress and size of flange, but strongly dependent upon type of flange class. Empirical curves (curve fitting equation) were proposed to determine change of gasket stress which was function of degree of NATD and flange class (rigidity index). The change of bolt stress with NATD was relatively small compared to the change of gasket stress, which may make it difficult to assess flange integrity by monitoring bolt stress in service.

Tillage modifies soil structure, altering conditions for plant growth and transport processes through the soil. However, the resulting loose structure is unstable and susceptible to collapse due to aggregate fragmentation during wetting and drying cycles, and coalescense of moist aggregates by internal capillary forces and external compactive stresses. Presently, limited understanding of these complex processes often leads to consideration of the soil plow layer as a static porous medium. With the purpose of filling some of this knowledge gap, the objectives of this Project were to: 1) Identify and quantify the major factors causing breakdown of primary soil fragments produced by tillage into smaller secondary fragments; 2) Identify and quantify the. physical processes involved in the coalescence of primary and secondary fragments and surfaces of weakness; 3) Measure temporal changes in pore-size distributions and hydraulic properties of reconstructed aggregate beds as a function of specified initial conditions and wetting/drying events; and 4) Construct a process-based model of post-tillage changes in soil structural and hydraulic properties of the plow layer and validate it against field experiments. A dynamic theory of capillary-driven plastic deformation of adjoining aggregates was developed, where instantaneous rate of change in geometry of aggregates and inter-aggregate pores was related to current geometry of the solid-gas-liquid system and measured soil rheological functions. The theory and supporting data showed that consolidation of aggregate beds is largely an event-driven process, restricted to a fairly narrow range of soil water contents where capillary suction is great enough to generate coalescence but where soil mechanical strength is still low enough to allow plastic deforn1ation of aggregates. The theory was also used to explain effects of transient external loading on compaction of aggregate beds. A stochastic forInalism was developed for modeling soil pore space evolution, based on the Fokker Planck equation (FPE). Analytical solutions for the FPE were developed, with parameters which can be measured empirically or related to the mechanistic aggregate deformation model. Pre-existing results from field experiments were used to illustrate how the FPE formalism can be applied to field data. Fragmentation of soil clods after tillage was observed to be an event-driven (as opposed to continuous) process that occurred only during wetting, and only as clods approached the saturation point. The major mechanism of fragmentation of large aggregates seemed to be differential soil swelling behind the wetting front. Aggregate "explosion" due to air entrapment seemed limited to small aggregates wetted simultaneously over their entire surface. Breakdown of large aggregates from 11 clay soils during successive wetting and drying cycles produced fragment size distributions which differed primarily by a scale factor l (essentially equivalent to the Van Bavel mean weight diameter), so that evolution of fragment size distributions could be modeled in terms of changes in l. For a given number of wetting and drying cycles, l decreased systematically with increasing plasticity index. When air-dry soil clods were slightly weakened by a single wetting event, and then allowed to "age" for six weeks at constant high water content, drop-shatter resistance in aged relative to non-aged clods was found to increase in proportion to plasticity index. This seemed consistent with the rheological model, which predicts faster plastic coalescence around small voids and sharp cracks (with resulting soil strengthening) in soils with low resistance to plastic yield and flow. A new theory of crack growth in "idealized" elastoplastic materials was formulated, with potential application to soil fracture phenomena. The theory was preliminarily (and successfully) tested using carbon steel, a ductile material which closely approximates ideal elastoplastic behavior, and for which the necessary fracture data existed in the literature.

The increased use of softer binders in Illinois over the past decade is primarily attributed to the increased use of recycled materials in asphalt pavement construction. The shift in demand of using PG 58-28 over PG 64-22 has resulted in potential alternative methods to produce softer binders more economically using proprietary products. However, there are challenges in using these proprietary products for asphalt modification because of uncertainty in their long-term performance and significant variability in binder chemistry. The current SuperPave performance grading specification for asphalt binders is insufficient in differentiating binders produced from these modifiers. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of various softener-type asphalt binder modifiers using a wide array of rheological and chemistry tests for their integration into the Illinois Department of Transportation’s material specifications. The small-strain rheological tests and their parameters allowed for consistent grouping of modified binders and can be used as surrogates to identify performing and nonperforming asphalt binders. A new parameter, Δ|G*|peak τ, was developed from the linear amplitude sweep test and showed potential to discriminate binders based on their large-strain behavior. Chemistry-based parameters were shown to track aging and formulation changes. The modifier sources were identified using fingerprint testing and were manifested in the modified binder chemical and compositional characteristics. The two sources of base binders blended with the modifiers governed the aging rate of the modified binders. Mixture performance testing using the Illinois Flexibility Index Test and the Hamburg Wheel-Track Test were consistent with the rheological and chemical findings, except for the glycol amine-based modified binder, which showed the worst cracking performance with the lowest flexibility index among the studied modifiers. This was contrary to its superior rheological performance, which may be attributed to lower thermal stability, resulting in high mass loss during mixing. According to the characterization of field-aged binders, laboratory aging of two pressurized aging vessel cycles or more may represent realistic field aging of 10 to 15 years at the pavement surface and is able to distinguish modified binders. Therefore, an extended aging method of two pressurized aging vessel cycles was recommended for modified binders. Two different testing suites were recommended for product approval protocol with preliminary thresholds for acceptable performance validated with field-aged data.

The article considers the possibility of analyzing the dynamics of changes in the characteristics of time series obtained on the basis of recurrence plots. The possibility of using the studied indicators to determine the presence of critical phenomena in economic systems is considered. Based on the analysis of economic time series of different nature, the suitability of the studied characteristics for the identification of critical phenomena is assessed. The description of recurrence diagrams and characteristics of time series that can be obtained on their basis is given. An analysis of seven characteristics of time series, including the coefficient of self-similarity, the coefficient of predictability, entropy, laminarity, is carried out. For the entropy characteristic, several options for its calculation are considered, each of which allows the one to get its own information about the state of the economic system. The possibility of using the studied characteristics as precursors of critical phenomena in economic systems is analyzed. We have demonstrated that the entropy analysis of financial time series in phase space reveals the characteristic recurrent properties of complex systems. The recurrence entropy methodology has several advantages compared to the traditional recurrence entropy defined in the literature, namely, the correct evaluation of the chaoticity level of the signal, the weak dependence on parameters. The characteristics were studied on the basis of daily values of the Dow Jones index for the period from 1990 to 2019 and daily values of oil prices for the period from 1987 to 2019. The behavior of recurrence entropy during critical phenomena in the stock markets of the USA, Germany and France was studied separately. As a result of the study, it was determined that delay time measure, determinism and laminarity can be used as indicators of critical phenomena. It turned out that recurrence entropy, unlike other entropy indicators of complexity, is an indicator and an early precursor of crisis phenomena. The ways of further research are outlined.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3%. Inflationary surprises in the third quarter were significant and widespread, and they are the result of several shocks. On the one hand, international cost and price shocks, which have mainly affected goods and foods, continue to exert upwards pressure on national inflation. In addition to these external supply shocks, domestic supply shocks have also affected foods. On the other hand, the strong recovery of aggregate demand, especially for private consumption and for machinery and equipment, as well as a higher accumulated depreciation of the Colombian peso and its pass-through to domestic prices also explain the rise in inflation. Indexation also contributes, both through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and through the Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to have a significant impact on electricity prices and, to a lesser degree, on other public utilities and rent. In comparison with July’s report, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) is higher in the forecast horizon, mainly due to exchange rate pressures, higher excess demand, and indexation at higher inflation rates, but it maintains a trend of convergence towards the target. In the case of food, a good domestic supply of perishable foods and some moderation in international processed food prices are still expected. However, the technical staff estimates higher pressures on this group’s prices from labor costs, raw material prices, and exchange rates. In terms of the CPI for regulated items, the new forecast supposes reductions in electricity prices at the end of the year, but the effects of indexation at higher inflation rates and the expected rises in fuel prices would continue to push this CPI group. Therefore, the new projection suggests that, in December, inflation would reach 11.3% and would decrease throughout 2023 and 2024, closing the year at 7.1% and 3.5%, respectively. These forecasts have a high level of uncertainty, due especially to the future behavior of international financial conditions, external price and cost shocks, the persistence of depreciation of the Colombian peso, the pace of adjustment of domestic demand, the indexation degree of nominal contracts, and the decisions that would be made regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices. Economic activity continues to surprise on the upside, and the projection of growth for 2022 rose from 6.9% to 7.9% but lowered for 2023 from 1.1% to 0.5%. Thus, excess demand is higher than estimated in the previous report, and it would diminish in 2023. Economic growth in the second quarterwas higher than estimated in July due to stronger domestic demand, mainly because of private consumption. Economic activity indicators for the third quarter suggest that the GDP would stay at a high level, above its potential, with an annual change of 6.4%, and 0.6% higher than observed in the second quarter. Nevertheless, these numbers reflect deceleration in its quarterly and annual growth. Domestic demand would show similar behavior, with a high value, higher than that of output. This can be explained partly by the strong behavior of private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In the third quarter, investment in construction would have continued with mediocre performance, which would still place it at levels lower than those observed before the pandemic. The trade deficit would have widened due to high imports with a stronger trend than that for exports. It is expected that, in the forecast horizon, consumption would decrease from its current high levels, partly as a consequence of tighter domestic financial conditions, lower repressed demand, higher exchange rate pressures on imported goods prices, and the deterioration of actual income due to the rise in inflation. Investment would continue to lag behind, without reaching the levels observed before the pandemic, in a context of high financing costs and high uncertainty. A lower projected behavior in domestic demand and the high levels of prices for oil and other basic goods that the country exports would be reflected in a reduction in the trade deficit. Due to all of this, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would be 7.9%, 0.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. Expected excess demand (measured via the output gap) is estimated to be higher than contemplated in the previous report; it would diminish in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024. These estimates remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to global political tension, a rise in international interest rates, and the effects of this rise on demand and financial conditions abroad. In the domestic context, the evolution of fiscal policy as well as future measures regarding economic policy and their possible effects on macroeconomic imbalances in the country, among others, are factors that generate uncertainty and affect risk premia, the exchange rate, investment, and the country’s economic activity. Interest rates at several of the world’s main central banks continue to rise, some at a pace higher than expected by the market. This is in response to the high levels of inflation and their inflation expectations, which continue to exceed the targets. Thus, global growth projections are still being moderated, risk premia have risen, and the dollar continues to gain strength against other main currencies. International pressures on global inflation have heightened. In the United States, core inflation has not receded, pressured by the behavior of the CPI for services and a tight labor market. Consequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to increase the policy interest rate at a strong pace. This rate is expected to now reach higher levels than projected in the previous quarter. Other developed and emerging economies have also increased their policy interest rates. Thus, international financial conditions have tightened significantly, which reflects in a widespread strengthening of the dollar, increases in worldwide risk premia, and the devaluation of risky assets. Recently, these effects have been stronger in Colombia than in the majority of its peers in the region. Considering all of the aforementioned, the technical staff of the bank increased its assumption regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate, reduced the country’s external demand growth forecast, and raised the projected trajectory for the risk premium. The latter remains elevated at higher levels than its historical average, within a context of high local uncertainty and of extensive financing needs from the foreign sector and the public sector. All of this results in higher inflationary pressures associated to the depreciation of the Colombian peso. The uncertainty regarding external forecasts and its impact on the country remain elevated, given the unforeseeable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of geopolitical tensions, and of the tightening of external financial conditions, among others. A macroeconomic context of high inflation, inflation expectations and forecasts above 3%, and a positive output gap suggests the need for contractionary monetary policy, compatible with the macroeconomic adjustment necessary to eliminate excess demand, mitigate the risk of unanchoring in inflation expectations, and guarantee convergence of inflation at the target. In comparison with the July report forecasts, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed output level that surpasses the economy’s productive capacity. Headline and core inflation have registered surprising rises, associated with the effects of domestic and external price shocks that were more persistent than anticipated, with excess demand and indexation processes in some CPI groups. The country’s risk premium and the observed and expected international interest rates increased. As a consequence of this, inflationary pressures from the exchange rate rose, and in this report, the probability of the neutral real interest rate being higher than estimated increased. In general, inflation expectations for all terms and the bank’s technical staff inflation forecast for 2023 increased again and continue to stray from 3%. All of the aforementioned elevated the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could heighten widespread indexation processes that push inflation away from the target for a longer time. In this context, it is necessary to consolidate a contractionary monetary policy that tends towards convergence of inflation at the target in the forecast horizon and towards the reduction of excess demand in order to guarantee a sustainable output level trajectory. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its September and October of 2022 meetings, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. In September, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), and in its October meeting, unanimously, by 100bps. Therefore, the rate is at 11.0%. Boxes 1 Food inflation: a comparison with other countries

Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias