Готові списки джерел за темами / Global catastrophic risks

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Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Global catastrophic risks"

Автор: Grafiati
Опубліковано: 10 січня 2023
Оновлено: 28 січня 2023

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Статті в журналах з теми "Global catastrophic risks"

1

Avin, Shahar, Bonnie C. Wintle, Julius Weitzdörfer, Seán S. Ó hÉigeartaigh, William J. Sutherland, and Martin J. Rees. "Classifying global catastrophic risks." Futures 102 (September 2018): 20–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001.

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2

Yassif, Jaime. "Reducing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 329–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0049.

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3

Chichilnisky, Graciela, and Peter Eisenberger. "Asteroids: Assessing Catastrophic Risks." Journal of Probability and Statistics 2010 (2010): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/954750.

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We evaluate two risk profiles: (i) global warming risks and (ii) collisions with asteroids that can cause the extinction of our species. The expected values computed for these two risks suggest that no action will be taken to avoid extinction. The result is somewhat counterintuitive, but it is typical of the results of using classic decision theory to evaluate catastrophic risks in the distant future, see the study by Posner (2004). We establish why expected value is insensitive to catastrophic risks see the study by Chichilnisky (1996), and use another criterion to evaluate risk based on axioms for choice under uncertainty that update the classic Von Neumann theory and require equal treatment for rare and frequent events. Optimizing according to the new criterion is shown to be equivalent to optimizing expected utility with a restriction on the worst outcome in the case of a catastrophe. The evaluation obtained from the new criterion seems more intuitively plausible, and suggests a more practical and realistic approach to catastrophic risks: optimizing expected value while minimizing losses in the case of a catastrophe.
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Palmer, Megan J., Bruce C. Tiu, Amy S. Weissenbach, and David A. Relman. "On Defining Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 347–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0057.

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5

Nathan, Christopher, and Keith Hyams. "Global policymakers and catastrophic risk." Policy Sciences 55, no. 1 (December 2, 2021): 3–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11077-021-09444-0.

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AbstractThere is a rapidly developing literature on risks that threaten the whole of humanity, or a large part of it. Discussion is increasingly turning to how such risks can be governed. This paper arises from a study of those involved the governance of risks from emerging technologies, examining the perceptions of global catastrophic risk within the relevant global policymaking community. Those who took part were either civil servants working for the UK government, U.S. Congress, the United Nations, and the European Commission, or cognate members of civil society groups and the private sector. Analysis of interviews identified four major themes: Scepticism; Realism; Influence; and Governance outside of Government. These themes provide evidence for the value of conceptualising the governance of global catastrophic risk as a unified challenge. Furthermore, they highlight the range of agents involved in governance of emerging technology and give reason to value reforms carried out sub-nationally.
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Cameron, Elizabeth E. "Emerging and Converging Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 337–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0043.

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Connell, Nancy D. "The Challenge of Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 345–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0056.

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Turchin, Alexey, and David Denkenberger. "Global catastrophic and existential risks communication scale." Futures 102 (September 2018): 27–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.01.003.

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Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes." foresight 21, no. 1 (March 11, 2019): 100–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-04-2018-0031.

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Purpose Islands have long been discussed as refuges from global catastrophes; this paper will evaluate them systematically, discussing both the positives and negatives of islands as refuges. There are examples of isolated human communities surviving for thousands of years on places like Easter Island. Islands could provide protection against many low-level risks, notably including bio-risks. However, they are vulnerable to tsunamis, bird-transmitted diseases and other risks. This paper aims to explore how to use the advantages of islands for survival during global catastrophes. Design/methodology/approach Preliminary horizon scanning based on the application of the research principles established in the previous global catastrophic literature. Findings The large number of islands on Earth, and their diverse conditions, increase the chance that one of them will provide protection from a catastrophe. Additionally, this protection could be increased if an island was used as a base for a nuclear submarine refuge combined with underground bunkers and/or extremely long-term data storage. The requirements for survival on islands, their vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate and adapt to risks are explored. Several existing islands, suitable for the survival of different types of risk, timing and budgets, are examined. Islands suitable for different types of refuges and other island-like options that could also provide protection are also discussed. Originality/value The possible use of islands as refuges from social collapse and existential risks has not been previously examined systematically. This paper contributes to the expanding research on survival scenarios.
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Schoch-Spana, Monica, Anita Cicero, Amesh Adalja, Gigi Gronvall, Tara Kirk Sell, Diane Meyer, Jennifer B. Nuzzo, et al. "Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Toward a Working Definition." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 323–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0038.

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Дисертації з теми "Global catastrophic risks"

1

Ehringer, Wolfgang, and Henrik Söderström. "Framing Global Catastrophic Risk - Recent and Future Research." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-33354.

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This article is a literature review about global catastrophic risks. Its contribution is to give an overview of the research field in general and highlight the main potential catastrophic areas linked with recent studies. In many movies and TV shows, we can see our civilization collapse in various ways: Gigantic asteroids hit the earth and obliterate all life, nuclear wars emerge, artificial intelligence evolves and starts wars with humans, pandemics spread, and other kinds of catastrophic events with mass death or extinction of all life happen. Thus, even if these are extreme events and fiction, we should raise the question how likely it is that one or more of these events can occur in the near and far future. Although calculated probabilities of impact are low for the future such as tomorrow, in 10, 100 or a million years from now, this could actually be reality. Nevertheless, why should we care about the risks of these global catastrophic events today and what could be done to prevent or reduce the risk of a global catastrophe? In this paper we will discuss core content, such as different risks and ways to reduce them internationally, as well as the scientific context of the field. In fact, there are events that can be catastrophic on a global scale and happen in the near future, even if we do not know exactly when. Hence, specific risk assessment and proper mitigation strategies are necessary in order to maintain the human population. This article states that serious research is a basis for decision makers in particular, who invest funds in countermeasures.
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2

Бугаєнко, Д. В. "Системний аналіз катастрофічних ризиків техногенного та природного характеру". Thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2017. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/65040.

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На сьогоднішній день головною метою системного аналізу є виявлення та оцінювання всіх його аспектів, занурення в сутність певних процесів, що безпосередньо пов’язані з ризиком. Якщо говорити про катастрофічний ризик, то під ним розуміють можливість виникнення певної надзвичайної ситуації техногенного чи природного характеру, що безпосередньо завдає великої шкоди державі та суспільству взагалі, саме через прояв стихійних сил природи чи діяльності людини у процесі створення та споживання матеріальних благ. Забезпечення стійкої рівноваги держави можливе в тому випадку, коли відбудеться зменшення саме соціальних криз, катастроф та надзвичайних ситуацій, а також скоротиться ступінь їх впливу на суспільство.
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McLean, Richard William. "A Splice of My LIfe." Thesis, 2020. https://vuir.vu.edu.au/41836/.

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This arts-based, practice-led, qualitative theoretical work amplifies young people’s ethical opinions of what it means to be human both now and in the future through three cumulative technological lenses. These are artificial intelligence (AI), and the anticipated superintelligence which has already commenced (Andrews, 2017), which enables the third lens of posthumanism, defined by the Oxford dictionary as ‘The idea that humanity can be transformed, transcended, or eliminated either by technological advances or the evolutionary process; artistic, scientific, or philosophical practice which reflects this belief (Dictionary, 1970).' Posthumanism auspices Transhumanism, which is defined as using technology to further enhance the skills, abilities, and lifespans of human beings who ultimately become posthuman (H+). This research renders a superintelligent AI which might orchestrate the qualities that future humans / posthumans will have, considering eugenics, gene modification, and the ultimate designing of entities and/or sentient beings, has already happened and is expressed via art and narrative experience as research. Transcending our biology to coexist with future world(s), including inter-dimensionally, is suggested as being inevitable when technological acceleration is viewed not linearly, but exponentially, especially considering quantum superintelligence(s). This research examines both the ethical lives of young people (extrapolated from recorded interviews) and of the author (through retrospective art and memory). It splices across generational divides, as well as past analogue and current/ future digitisation, compares young people today and in years gone by, also splicing human or posthuman survival as framed by the Anthropocene, (‘Anthrop’ meaning human and ‘cene’ meaning a geological period of time, in simple language, ‘The Human Era’), stemming out of compassion for nature and the living world, while conversing with young people about global catastrophic risks. An unexpected existential creative artefact(s) emerges through the methodologies of A/r/ tography, Arts-Based Research, Narrative Inquiry, otherwise referred to throughout as Living inquiry. This metaphorically mirrors ‘The Event Horizon’ of the technological singularity discussed within the data collection section, in which outcomes are and were impossible to predict. The metaphor of me talking to students about events unknowable past a technological singularity, or event horizon, is precisely what happened as my memories and art revealed themselves with the help of healers, and detailed in the creative component ‘A Splice of My Life.’ I have since learned that this idea can be attributed to Deleuze.
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Книги з теми "Global catastrophic risks"

1

1973-, Bostrom Nick, and Cirkovic Milan M, eds. Global catastrophic risks. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008.

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2

Inglesby, Thomas V., and Amesh A. Adalja, eds. Global Catastrophic Biological Risks. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36311-6.

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3

Smil, Vaclav. Global catastrophes and trends: The next fifty years. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2008.

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4

Smil, Vaclav. Global catastrophes and trends: The next fifty years. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2008.

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5

Natural disaster hotspots: A global risk analysis. Washington, D.C: World Bank, 2005.

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6

Rees, Martin J. Global Catastrophic Risks. Edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic. Oxford University Press, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198570509.001.0001.

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A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.
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Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press, 2011.

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8

Inglesby, Thomas V., and Amesh A. Adalja. Global Catastrophic Biological Risks. Springer International Publishing AG, 2020.

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9

Inglesby, Thomas V., and Amesh A. Adalja. Global Catastrophic Biological Risks. Springer, 2019.

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10

Chichilnisky, Graciela, and Armon Rezai. Economics of the Global Environment: Catastrophic Risks in Theory and Policy. Springer London, Limited, 2016.

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Частини книг з теми "Global catastrophic risks"

1

Schofield, Norman. "Climate Change, Catastrophic Risks and Social Choice Theory." In The Economics of the Global Environment, 389–421. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_18.

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Chichilnisky, Graciela, and Armon Rezai. "The Economics of the Global Environment—Catastrophic Risks in Theory and Practice." In The Economics of the Global Environment, 1–14. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_1.

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Morhard, Ryan. "Priorities for Public–Private Cooperation to Mitigate Risk and Impact of Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." In Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 121–28. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/82_2019_180.

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4

Chanel, Olivier, Graciela Chichilnisky, Sébastien Massoni, and Jean-Christophe Vergnaud. "Exploring the Role of Emotions in Decisions Involving Catastrophic Risks: Lessons from a Double Investigation." In The Economics of the Global Environment, 553–75. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_24.

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Cheah, Phaik Yeong, Michael Parker, and Nicholas P. J. Day. "Ethics and Antimalarial Drug Resistance." In Ethics and Drug Resistance: Collective Responsibility for Global Public Health, 55–73. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-27874-8_4.

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Abstract There has been impressive progress in malaria control and treatment over the past two decades. One of the most important factors in the decline of malaria-related mortality has been the development and deployment of highly effective treatment in the form of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). However, recent reports suggest that these gains stand the risk of being reversed due to the emergence of ACT resistance in the Greater Mekong Subregion and the threat of this resistance spreading to Africa, where the majority of the world’s malaria cases occur, with catastrophic consequences. This chapter provides an overview of strategies proposed by malaria experts to tackle artemisinin-resistant malaria, and some of the most important practical ethical issues presented by each of these interventions. The proposed strategies include mass antimalarial drug administrations in selected populations, and mandatory screening of possibly infected individuals prior to entering an area free of artemisinin-resistant malaria. We discuss ethical issues such as tensions between the wishes of individuals versus the broader goal of malaria elimination, and the risks of harm to interventional populations, and conclude by proposing a set of recommendations.
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Baum, Seth D., and Anthony M. Barrett. "Global catastrophes." In Risk in Extreme Environments, 174–84. Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2018.: Routledge, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315557540-16.

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Ericson, Richard E., and Jamie L. Kruse. "Preference Representations for Catastrophic Risk Analysis." In The Economics of the Global Environment, 39–69. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_3.

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Estrada, Francisco. "Climate Catastrophes as a Sum of Known Risks." In Climate of the Middle, 33–42. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85322-8_4.

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AbstractAn ever-increasing body of research has warned for decades about the impacts of climate change on agriculture, health, flooding, economy, among many others and provided information about when and where these impacts could be larger. Are societies prepared for these expected ‘white-swans’, particularly in the context of a high degree of interconnectedness in Nature and in society? I borrow from the development of the Covid-19 pandemic to illustrate this view. Influenza pandemics have been foreseen decades before, but the characteristics of the virus and the socioeconomic links have made it into the global crisis that it had become in 2020.
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Nakanishi, Hayato. "How the Change of Risk Announcement on Catastrophic Disaster Affects Property Prices?" In The Economics of the Global Environment, 577–95. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_25.

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Hammond, Peter J. "Catastrophic Risk, Rare Events, and Black Swans: Could There Be a Countably Additive Synthesis?" In The Economics of the Global Environment, 17–38. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_2.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Global catastrophic risks"

1

Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9476800645.51196268.

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Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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2

Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b4316be3ef5.

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Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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3

Bridle, Peter Vincent. "Catastrophic Events and Human Error: A Few Rotten Apples or Organizational Dysfunction?" In SPE Trinidad and Tobago Section Energy Resources Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/200942-ms.

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Abstract In July 2021, commemorations will be held to mark the 33 years since the 1988 Piper Alpha tragedy in the UK sector of the North Sea where 167 oil field workers lost their lives. Without question, the incident was a watershed event for the international oil and gas industry not simply because of the immediate toll in human lives lost, but also in terms of the devasting aftermath endured by countless friends, families and loved ones whose lives were forever changed. The tragedy also served to illustrate just how poorly the oil and gas industry really understood and managed those operating risks that possessed the potential for catastrophic loss, both in terms of business cost and overall reputational impact. In the wake of the public enquiry that followed and chaired by Lord Cullen of Whitekirk, one of the principal recommendations required that the international oil and gas industry do a much better job in determining both its major hazards (i.e. major operating risks) and also in creating the necessary operating conditions to demonstrate that such things were being well managed. The objective being to provide tangible assurance that the likelihood of the industry ever incurring such a calamitous event again in the future had been reduced to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). In taking its responsibilities very seriously, the international oil and gas industry responded by raising the profile of the management of Health, Safety and the Environment (HSE) across the wide spectrum of its global operations. By the mid-nineties, the industry had implemented comprehensive and structured systems of work within the framework of purposely built HSE Management Systems using templates designed and developed for the industry via the International Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP)*.
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Bridle, Peter. "Catastrophic Events and Human Error: A Few Rotten Apples or Organizational Dysfunction?" In SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/205858-ms.

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Abstract By July of 2021, it would have been 33 years since the 1988 Piper Alpha tragedy in the UK sector of the North Sea where 167 oil field workers lost their lives. Without question, the incident was a watershed event for the international oil and gas industry. And not simply because of the immediate toll in human lives lost, but also in terms of the devasting aftermath endured by countless friends, families and loved ones whose lives were forever changed on that fateful day. The tragedy also served to illustrate how much work would be needed by the oil and gas industry to fully understand and better manage those operating risks that possessed the potential for catastrophic loss in terms of business cost and reputational impact. In the wake of the public enquiry that followed and chaired by Lord Cullen of Whitekirk, one of the principal recommendations resulting from the disaster required that the international oil and gas industry do a much better job in determining both its major hazards (i.e. major operating risks) and in creating the necessary operating conditions to demonstrate that such things were being well managed. The objective being to provide tangible assurance that the likelihood of the industry ever incurring such a calamitous event again in the future had been reduced to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). In taking its responsibilities very seriously, the international oil and gas industry responded by raising the profile of the management of Health, Safety, and the Environment (HSE) across the wide spectrum of its global operations. By the mid-nineties, the industry had implemented comprehensive and structured systems of work within the framework of purposely built HSE Management Systems using templates designed and developed for the industry via the International Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP)*.
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Wenkai Wang, Qiao Cai, Yan Sun, and Haibo He. "Risk-Aware Attacks and Catastrophic Cascading Failures in U.S. Power Grid." In 2011 IEEE Global Communications Conference (GLOBECOM 2011). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/glocom.2011.6133788.

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Валяев, Александр Никифорович, Олег Николаевич Апанасюк, and Алексей Александрович Валяев. "ANALYSIS TOTAL RISKS AND DAMAGES AT NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS." In Сборник избранных статей по материалам научных конференций ГНИИ "Нацразвитие" (Санкт-Петербург, Август 2021). Crossref, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.37539/aug298.2021.14.15.021.

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Сегодня наблюдается интенсивный рост различных глобальных угроз цивилизации, таких как природные и техногенные катастрофы, экологический дисбаланс, глобальное изменение климата, многочисленные опасные загрязнения больших территорий и направленные террористические атаки, приведшие к огромным разрушениям и чрезвычайным ситуациям с массовыми жертвами. Атомная энергия, как один из основных источников энергии, требует особо внимательного и бережного отношения. С большинством угроз человечество столкнулось впервые. Поэтому аналогов и средств для их решения нет. Это стимулирует модернизацие традиционных методов и разработку новых для неё исследований, прогнозирования и предотвращения с максимальным снижением их негативных последствий при любых возможных катастрофах. Глобальный вопрос обеспечения безопасности человечества является наиболее актуальным и требует немедленного решения. Риски катастроф возросли настолько, что становится очевидным, что ни одно из государств не в состоянии управлять ими самостоятельно. Совместные усилия всего мирового сообщества необходимы для существенного развития нашей цивилизации. Основные препятствия для этого осознания обсуждаются в нашем исследовании. Today it is observed the intense growth of various global wide scale threats to civilization, such as natural and manmade catastrophes, ecological imbalance, global climate change, numerous hazards pollutions of large territories and directed terrorist attacks, resulted to huge damages and mass casualty emergencies. Atomic energy as one of the main exclusive excusive energy sources, requires the particularly attentive careful attitude. The humankind has faced the majority of treats at the first time. Therefore, there are no analogues and means to be used for their solving. It stimulates modernization of traditional methods and development of new ones for its researching, prediction and prevention with maximum decreasing of their negative consequences at any possible negative disasters. The global issue of safety provision for the humankind is the most actual and requires an immediate decision. Catastrophe risks have increased so much, that it becomes evident, that none of the states is able to manage them independently. Join efforts of all world community are necessary for the substantial development of our civilization. Main obstacles for this realization are under discussion in our communication.
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Shetty, Kishan Prasad, Subramanian T.S, and Ibrahim Al Awadhi. "Holistic Approach In Human Error Management." In Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/207682-ms.

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Abstract Despite all safety measures taken in oil and gas plants, serious vehicular accidents happen during maintenance/ shutdown activities, due to human errors such as inadequate planning, improper decision making/ behaviour etc. affecting structural integrity/ process safety, resulting in catastrophic events. In most of such incidents, swift safety measures need to be undertaken to control the extent of damage and limit additional risks cascading from the main event. This paper presents the case study of a vehicle impact incident on an existing main piperack located in the process plant, its root causes and immediate actions adopted in controlling major hazard and ensuring uninterrupted plant operation by maintaining structural integrity. Prime factors considered while arriving solutions to structural damages due to the vehicular impact include, incident cause, extent of damages, availability of restoration material, execution feasibility under plant operating conditions and skillsets of work force that carries out the restoration activities. Due to various constraints, solution arrived are temporary, averting multiple structural failures/ major accident. Further investigation and studies were required to identify root cause of the incident and enhance the implemented solution that would reaffirm long-term integrity of the piperack structure. The vehicular impact loads are generally not accounted in general structural design, since necessary safety measures are considered while finalizing the plant layout. Such unanticipated vehicular impacts on the structural system can result in local/ global structural damages such as failure of critical pipe supports, consequential damage to adjacent pipes, other structural components etc. In this case, although there was a warning signboard (installed on the pipe rack) indicating maximum permissible height, contractor tried to drive the container vehicle having height more than the stipulated height. Since the vehicle passed through first obstruction (beam) located at much higher level, driver negligently moved the vehicle further ahead hitting internal beam located slightly above the limiting height thereby damaging structural beam supporting critical piping. In this incident, site surveys to inspect the damage, data review, structural assessment and details of material in stock are some of the common steps followed for swift restoration of structural integrity. Based on the same, temporary support to prevent further structural damages and restoring operational integrity was designed and implemented in a short time. Other main activities followed were, Walk through the incident to derive the root cause Review work instructions and communication protocol Human factors pertaining to the incident Review the application of management and administrative control Permanent solution for structural restoration Ensuring safety of critical assets is the top most priority for the asset owner. Further, any accident related to safety shall be dealt swiftly to control major hazard, maintain asset integrity and ensure process safety. Such incidents could happen in any industrial facility, oil and gas or other industries. The lessons learnt from this accident and fit for purpose swift actions employed for restoration can be shared with the industry professionals to ensure 100% HSE in projects, operations and maintenance activities.
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Belanić, Loris, and Bojan Baretić. "OSIGURANI RIZICI U OSIGURANjU PREKIDA POSLOVANjA." In XVII majsko savetovanje. Pravni fakultet Univerziteta u Kragujvcu, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46793/uvp21.281b.

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Business interruption insurance is a type of insurance that covers the loss of income when a company suffers a catastrophic event such as natural disaster, massive fire damage or a huge machinery failure. Closing of the business facility due to the rebuilding process, which is typically considered only property damage in insurance terms, actually has far greater impact on any company as a whole. Many owners, managers and chief executive officers view business interruption insurance predominantly as expense, but global market trends require such policies to be implemented as key basis for modern risk management. For croatian insurance market business interruption policies are still developing as a tailor-made insurance product, while in European insurance market they are considered common business practice. This work is an overview of essential factors which determine business interruption insurance.
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Lew, Roger, Ronald Boring, and Thomas Ulrich. "Envisioning 21st Century Mixed-Initiative Operations for Energy Systems." In 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1002137.

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Despite a slow pace, Nuclear Power is undergoing a global renaissance. Small modular reactors (SMR) and microreactors are in various design and commissioning phases. These are designed to be built in factories and installed onsite, providing a means to rapidly deploy nuclear power while controlling for uncertain capital expenditures and cost overruns. The OECD (2016) is projecting that by 2035 we could have 21 GWe of new nuclear electricity capacity installed globally with 3.5 GWe in the United States.Simultaneously, renewables such as wind and solar are growing exponentially and battery electric vehicles are gaining traction in the energy sector. If vehicles transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV) our electricity consumption would roughly double. The energy grid as a whole is evolving as numerous point source generators come online and smarter grids enable better resource management and dynamic pricing. The result will be a distributed energy market where individuals and utilities both buy and sell resources in a fast-paced, brokered market. Or perhaps more accurately, autonomous agents will buy and sell resources on behalf of utilities, individuals, and intermediaries.The pertinent question then becomes how do we have human oversight of resources to maintain safe, secure, and reliable operation?A reasonable approach is to examine assets as three general classes. The first class comprises commodity consumer-oriented devices such as home solar, battery storage, and BEVs represented distributed nano-scale devices. The capital expenditures of any single device or installation are relatively small, and the potential consequences of a single installation failing are relatively small. Minimal regulatory oversight is required for individual installations. The second class comprises distributed micro-scale devices like nuclear micro-reactors and small modular reactors. These will have substantial automation compared to existing Generation II reactors. They could incorporate remote operations and monitoring at the fleet scale, with the ability to shut down systems locally. Disruptions would have costly impacts to an organization or municipality.Lastly, at the other end of the spectrum are high-value assets with the potential for low-probability high consequence events. These would include gigawatt-scale nuclear/solar/hydro plants that might also have flexible operations to support onsite data centers, hydrogen production, or cryptomining. These assets would be high-value targets and distruptions would have the potential for severe economic, environmental, and functional consequences at large geographic scales. When we start thinking about human oversight, participation, and decision making, the first class is consumer-oriented. Consumers will be enabled to become prosumers (producers and consumers) sell excess or optimize energy usage and storage based on dynamic rates.The third class of high-value assets resembles how critical infrastructure is managed today. These high-value assets are conservative and slow to evolve through the adoption of automation and operational changes. They would still need to maintain high degrees of human vigilance compared to the other systems for regulatory adherence and maintaining cyber-physical security and reliability.The second class still has high regulatory requirements. However, it is a bit of a clean slate to conceptualize operations and monitoring from first principles with high levels of automation and mixed-initiative monitoring and control (AI/human teaming). In this paper we explore those possibilities.New SMR and microreactors incorporate passive safety and modern engineering modeling and analysis that wasn't available during the design and commisioning of Generation II reactors. The result is reactors that have significantly reduced risks of catastrophic melt-down events like Fukishima. This dramatically expands the possibilities for how they can be monitored and controlled. When we ponder what modern nuclear control rooms should look like we envision multiple operators monitoring dozens of screens to maintain situational awareness and readiness to respond at a moments notice. However, this is unlikely and perhaps even undersired. Once reactors, in particular microreactors, have the demonstrated capability of operating hands-free with minimal oversight it becomes misguided to install humans to maintain constant vigilance (e.g. Level 4 to 5 self-driving). The key performance indicator should be system performance not situational awareness. Having "operators" permanently installed in a control room when no action is required 99.9% of the time becomes a superficial level of vigilance. Take system administration as a corollary. System administrator's primary responsibility is to maintain the availability of infrastructure, but their primary tasking is not to sit idly by and actively monitor.
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Alremeihi, Mohamad, Rosemary Norman, Kayvan Pazouki, Arun Dev, and Musa Bashir. "Advanced Intelligent Control Strategy in Dynamic Positioning (DP) System Applied to a Semi-Submersible Drilling Platform in the North Sea." In ASME 2021 40th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-61525.

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Abstract Dynamic Positioning (DP) systems play a crucial role in oil and gas drilling and production floaters used globally for deep-water operations. Drilling operations need to maintain automatic positioning of the platform in the horizontal-plane within the safe zone. Operating DP systems typically require highly responsive control systems when encountering prevailing weather conditions. However, DP incident analysis demonstrates that control and thruster failures have been the leading causes of accidents for the past two decades, according to the International Marine Contractors Association (IMCA). In this paper, a Predictive Neural Network (PNN) strategy is proposed for thruster allocation on a platform; it has been developed by predicting the platform response and training the network to transform the required force commands from a nonlinear Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) motion controller for each thruster. The strategy is developed for increasing safety and zone keeping of DP-assisted-drilling operations in harsh weather. This is done by allowing the platform to recover the position more rapidly whilst decreasing the risk of losing the platform position and heading, which can lead to catastrophic damage. The operational performance of the DP system on a drilling platform subjected to the North Sea real environmental conditions of wind, currents and waves, is simulated with the model incorporating the PNN control algorithm, which deals with dynamic uncertainties, into the unstable conventional PID control system for a current drilling semi-submersible model. The simulation results demonstrate the improvement in DP accuracy and robustness for the semi-submersible drilling platform positioning and performance using the PNN strategy.
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Звіти організацій з теми "Global catastrophic risks"

1

Clark, Helen. Environment of Peace. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, August 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55163/fwdp2737.

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The SIPRI Lecture is an annual event focusing on major themes in peace and security. The event provides a platform for prominent global thought leaders who share the values underpinning SIPRI and its research. The fourth SIPRI Lecture, which was held in a hybrid format on 23 May 2022, was delivered by HE Helen Clark and focused on the theme ‘Environment of Peace’. The lecture presented the findings of the SIPRI report Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk. In her address, Clark pointed out that the climate crisis looms ever larger, the world is off track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, and the war in Ukraine is not only having tragic consequences in Ukraine but also has potentially catastrophic repercussions far beyond that country’s borders. Transformative change is needed, which will require global cooperation; but the current geopolitical climate makes it far more difficult to address these interconnected risks.
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