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Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Incident scenario"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 15 березня 2025

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Статті в журналах з теми "Incident scenario"

Villa, Guillermo, Lucía Fernández–Ortiz, Jesús Cuervo, Pablo Rebollo, Rafael Selgas, Teresa González, and Javier Arrieta. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy Program." Peritoneal Dialysis International: Journal of the International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis 32, no. 2 (March 2012): 192–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.3747/pdi.2011.00037.

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♦BackgroundWe undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT) program for end-stage renal disease patients from a societal perspective. The current Spanish situation was compared with several hypothetical scenarios.♦MethodsA Markov chain model was used as a foundation for simulations of the Spanish RRT program in three temporal horizons (5, 10, and 15 years). The current situation (scenario 1) was compared with three different scenarios: increased proportion of overall scheduled (planned) incident patients (scenario 2); constant proportion of overall scheduled incident patients, but increased proportion of scheduled incident patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD), resulting in a lower proportion of scheduled incident patients on hemodialysis (HD) (scenario 3); and increased overall proportion of scheduled incident patients together with increased scheduled incidence of patients on PD (scenario 4).♦ResultsThe incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of scenarios 2, 3, and 4, when compared with scenario 1, were estimated to be, respectively, -€83 150, -€354 977, and -€235 886 per incremental quality-adjusted life year (ΔQALY), evidencing both moderate cost savings and slight effectiveness gains. The net health benefits that would accrue to society were estimated to be, respectively, 0.0045, 0.0211, and 0.0219 ΔQALYs considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of €35 000/ΔQALY.♦ConclusionsScenario 1, the current Spanish situation, was dominated by all the proposed scenarios. Interestingly, scenarios 3 and 4 showed the best results in terms of cost-effectiveness. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, an increase in the overall scheduled incidence of RRT, and particularly that of PD, should be promoted.

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Fîță, Daniel N., Crina Barb, Dragoș Păsculescu, and Leon Pană. "The description and evaluation of technical incident risk on the National Power Grid in the context of power safety growth." MATEC Web of Conferences 290 (2019): 12010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201929012010.

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In the context of increasing the importance of power safety for national security, the security of power systems within the National Power Grid, must be an objective of major and constant interest for the national transmission and system operator. Evolutions in recent decades have shown the increase in vulnerabilities caused by: failure, destruction and/or disruption of technological infrastructures caused by acts of terrorism, natural disaster, negligence in service, work accidents of technical nature, technical incidents, criminal activities and lack of investment. For the critical analysis of the National Power Grid, 4 (four) possible risk scenarios with effects of instability of the power safety and with major effects on the national security were identified, described and evaluated: Risk Scenario 1 - Technical Incident, Risk Scenario 2 - Damage: Technical Incident Sequence, Risk Scenario 3 - Damage: Natural Disaster, Risk Scenario 4 - Damage: Terrorist Attack. The purpose of the paper is to describe and evaluate the Risc Scenario 1- Technical Incident (which is most prevalent) on the power substations and to prevent potential disturbances in the safety of the power supply to consumer.

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Ha, Hye Jong, Young Tae Son, and Dong Wu Kim. "An Analysis of the Use Case Effect of Traffic Operation Scenario in Response to Incidents for Mixed Traffic Situations." Forum of Public Safety and Culture 37 (December 31, 2024): 169–80. https://doi.org/10.52902/kjsc.2024.37.169.

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This study aims to analyze the effects of providing traffic operation strategies to autonomous vehicles in response to incidents in mixed traffic situations involving autonomous vehicles and manual vehicles. The use case scenario of providing detour information for incidents in a living lab where autonomous vehicles are expected to operate is intended to derive the effects of traffic operation strategies through comparison of average travel speeds. In order to analyze the effectiveness of traffic operation strategy in traffic situations where autonomous vehicles and manual vehicles coexist, three scenarios were designed for peak and non-peak traffic conditions, and the average travel time of autonomous vehicles for each autonomous driving service was calculated and analyzed as an indicator for judging the effectiveness of the information provision scenario for detours. The simulation analysis results for scenario 2, where an incident occurs, showed that the average travel speed increased compared to scenario 1, and this was analyzed to reflect the bottleneck caused by the incident (reducing operation from 3 lanes to 1 lane). In scenario 3, which simulates the case where detour information is provided as part of the incident response traffic operation strategy, the average travel time of autonomous vehicles decreases compared to scenario 2 for the occurrence of an incident. Therefore, it is judged that the traffic conditions improves as autonomous vehicles select the detour as a strategy for providing detour information in response to an incident, thereby reducing the demand for vehicles passing through the incident location. This study is significant in that it analyzed the effectiveness of traffic operation strategy by implementing an actual traffic environment as a simulation program for the use case of traffic operation strategy that can be provided to autonomous vehicles when an incident occurs in a mixed situation of autonomous vehicles and manual vehicles, and as an initial study in preparation for the era of autonomous driving, it is a study on mixed situations of autonomous vehicles in urban areas.

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Sudiarno, Adithya, Okto Abdillah, Hammam Dhiyaurrahman Yusdin, Kuntum Khoiro Ummatin, and Izzati Winda Murti. "Effectivity analysis of the scrum framework adaptation in safety performance improvement: A system dynamics approach." Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development 8, no. 9 (September 4, 2024): 7386. http://dx.doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i9.7386.

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The rapidly growing construction industry often deals with complex and dynamic projects that pose significant safety risks. One of the state-owned companies in Indonesia is engaged in large-scale toll road construction projects with a high incidence of workplace accidents. This study aims to improve safety performance in toll road construction by implementing the Scrum framework. The study uses a System Dynamics approach to model interactions between the Scrum framework, project management, and work safety subsystems. Various scenarios were designed by modifying controlled variables and system structures, including introducing a punishment entity. These scenarios were evaluated based on their impact on reducing incidents and the incident rate over the project period. The results indicate that the combined scenario significantly reduces incidents and incident rates in different conditions. The study also finds a strong relationship between Scrum framework implementation and improved safety performance, demonstrating a reduction in incidents and incident rates by over 50% compared to existing conditions. This research underlines the effectiveness of the Scrum framework in enhancing safety in construction projects.

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Smart, Colin John, and Ian Maconochie. "How and Why Do You Declare a Major Incident?" Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 23, no. 1 (February 2008): 70–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00005616.

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AbstractIntroduction:The decision to declare a major incident (MI) is not one to be taken lightly, but a delay in doing so may have dire consequences. The aim of this study was to ascertain what factors make specialists from a variety of pro-fessional backgrounds in the United Kingdom determine from an initial visu-al assessment of a scene that a MI should be declared.Methods:Participants were presented with three different scenarios, which were presented pictorially. Their responses were noted.Results:One hundred seventy-eight professionals took part in this study. For Scenario 1 (a road traffic incident), 101 (57%) declared a MI. For a coach rollover in Scenario 2, a MI was declared by 82 (46%) people, and a MI was declared by 156 (87%) for a rail crash in Scenario 3.Forty-six participants had attended a MI previously.The results for declar-ing a MI in this group were: (1) Scenario 1, 25 (54%); (2) Scenario 2, 25 (54%); and (3) Scenario 3, 44 (96%). Of this group, 44 had previously had training before experiencing the MI. Those who had >10 years of service in emergency services were more likely to declare a MI in Scenario 2 and 3.Conclusions:The main problem with the existing system is the interpreta-tion and subjective nature of the word “major”. Specialists incorporate many individual factors into using the word. Future research should focus on the development of a system tied to more objective analysis.

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Schulz, Fredrik, Quynh Nguyen, Anke Baetzner, David Sjöberg, and Lina Gyllencreutz. "Exploring medical first responders’ perceptions of mass casualty incident scenario training: a qualitative study on learning conditions and recommendations for improvement." BMJ Open 14, no. 7 (July 2024): e084925. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2024-084925.

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ObjectiveDespite participating in scenario training, many medical first responders (MFRs) perceive themselves as inadequately prepared to respond to mass casualty incidents (MCIs). The objective of this study was to conduct a comprehensive examination of traditional MCI scenario training methods, focusing on their inherent strengths and limitations. An investigation into the perceptions of MFRs who had participated in MCI scenario training was carried out to identify potential areas for improvement and provide recommendations for refining MCI training protocols.DesignQualitative inductive approach using semistructured interviews that took place between October 2021 and February 2022. Data were analysed with qualitative content analysis.SettingMCI scenario training involving four organisations (three emergency medical services and one search-and-rescue organisation) tasked with responding to MCIs, collectively representing four European Union countries.Participants27 MFRs (17 emergency medical services personnel and 10 search-and-rescue volunteers) were recruited to participate in the study.ResultsTwo categories and seven associated subcategories (shown in parentheses) were identified as influencing the learning outcomes for MFRs: Training in a context mirroring real-world incidents (conducting incident scene risk assessment, realistic representation in casualties, incorporating scenario variety into the curriculum, interagency collaboration, role alignment when training incident site management) and use of a pedagogical framework (allowing for mistakes, the importance of post-training evaluation).ConclusionsThis study reaffirms the value of traditional MCI scenario training and identifies areas for enhancement, advocating for realistic scenarios, interagency collaboration, improved incident site management skills and thorough post-training evaluation. It suggests a shift in MCI training conceptualisation and delivery. The potential of virtual reality technologies as a valuable addition to training methods is explored, with a note on the need for further research to ascertain the long-term effectiveness of these technologies. However, the selection of a training method should consider programme goals, target population and resources.

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Karatsoli, Maria, Martin Margreiter, and Matthias Spangler. "Simulation based Performance Test of Incident Detection Algorithms Using Bluetooth Measurements." Transport and Telecommunication Journal 17, no. 4 (December 1, 2016): 267–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ttj-2016-0023.

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Abstract This article analyzes the use of Bluetooth-based travel times, for Automatic Incident Detection (AID) purposes. Automatic incident messages were derived for simulated data through the use of an AID algorithm, which was developed by Technical University of Munich (TUM). A Vissim model of a 15 kilometre section of A9 motorway in Germany was set up, where different scenarios of traffic situation, incidents and detector layout were introduced and travel times were generated, processed and then run through the TUM algorithm. The performance measures Detection Rate (DR), False Alarm Rate (FAR) and Mean Time To Detect (MTTD) were used for the analysis of the incident messages' quality of the simulated data and compared for every incident scenario. Local data were also generated in the Vissim model and used by VKDiff algorithm for incident detection. A comparison of the quality of the incident messages of both TUM and VKDiff algorithm was conducted.

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Venkatanarayana, Ramkumar, Brian L. Smith, and Hyungjun Park. "Scenario-Driven Computer-Based Regional Incident Management Training." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2064, no. 1 (January 2008): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2064-01.

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Andrade, Fernando Oliveira de, Cristiano Maciel, Roberto Carlos Moro Filho, and Marcelo Marques. "Numerical simulation of the neighborhood effects on the wind loading over standard model-scale tall buildings." Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental 24 (December 4, 2020): e2. http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2236117062656.

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Numerical simulations of atmospheric flow were carried out in this study in order to evaluate the neighborhood effects on the wind loading over standard model-scale tall buildings. The computational models were developed by solving the steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS equations) with turbulence treated by a k-ε model. Two building positioning scenarios were simulated: scenario-1 consisted of the isolated configuration of a standard model-scale building and scenario-2 was composed of the standard building with a selected neighborhood. Both scenarios were analyzed for wind incidence angles of zero, 45, and 90 degrees. The numerical results were obtained in terms of pressure and force coefficients which allowed the determination of neighborhood factors. The simulations showed that the neighborhood influences the mean wind loading on the faces of the standard building, sometimes amplifying the load (in the case of incident winds at zero and 90 degrees), sometimes attenuating the acting forces (in the case of incident winds at zero and 45 degrees). The numerical results were compared with experimental data and showed similar orders of magnitude suggesting that the simulations correctly describe the physical behavior of the wind action.

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Oriola, Oluwafemi, Adesesan Barnabas Adeyemo, Maria Papadaki, and Eduan Kotzé. "A collaborative approach for national cybersecurity incident management." Information & Computer Security 29, no. 3 (June 28, 2021): 457–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ics-02-2020-0027.

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Purpose Collaborative-based national cybersecurity incident management benefits from the huge size of incident information, large-scale information security devices and aggregation of security skills. However, no existing collaborative approach has been able to cater for multiple regulators, divergent incident views and incident reputation trust issues that national cybersecurity incident management presents. This paper aims to propose a collaborative approach to handle these issues cost-effectively. Design/methodology/approach A collaborative-based national cybersecurity incident management architecture based on ITU-T X.1056 security incident management framework is proposed. It is composed of the cooperative regulatory unit with cooperative and third-party management strategies and an execution unit, with incident handling and response strategies. Novel collaborative incident prioritization and mitigation planning models that are fit for incident handling in national cybersecurity incident management are proposed. Findings Use case depicting how the collaborative-based national cybersecurity incident management would function within a typical information and communication technology ecosystem is illustrated. The proposed collaborative approach is evaluated based on the performances of an experimental cyber-incident management system against two multistage attack scenarios. The results show that the proposed approach is more reliable compared to the existing ones based on descriptive statistics. Originality/value The approach produces better incident impact scores and rankings than standard tools. The approach reduces the total response costs by 8.33% and false positive rate by 97.20% for the first attack scenario, while it reduces the total response costs by 26.67% and false positive rate by 78.83% for the second attack scenario.

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Більше джерел

Дисертації з теми "Incident scenario"

Caratozzolo, Vincenzo. "Development and validation of models for accident scenario following the spill of hazardous substances from pipelines." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019.

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The releases of hazardous substance from pressurised pipelines are of particular interest due to the different scenarios that may occur following the loss of containment. These may have different causes, as accidental release, corrosion, etc. In such cases the release of flammable substances can lead to different scenarios as Fires, Explosions and Environmental pollutions. The severity of such scenarios can increase due the "Domino Effect" that will affect also other equipment or near unit operations, potentially causing a cascading event. For these reasons an accurate methodology is necessary in order to estimate the consequences and the evaluation of the possible hazards coming from those scenarios. In this work a CFD software developed at the University College London (UCL) called PipeTech was used to predict the depressurization parameters (Temperature, Pressure, etc.) and the outflow following the rupture of a pipeline, as well as to assess the hazard coming from the Jet Fire and the Pool Fire. In particular, an initial validation, against some experimental data and another commercial software Phast (DNV GL), of the Jet Fire and Pool Fire models implemented in PipeTech was performed. Moreover, an evaluation of the effect of some main parameter (pressure, tilt angle and orifice diameter) were taken into account to evaluate how they affect the incident radiation coming from the Jet Fire. With the aim to upgrade the Pool Fire model implemented in PipeTech, a new model based on correlations found in literature is described, in which the flame is considered as to have two different emitting zones: a lower and luminous part and an upper partially obscured part due to the smoke envelope that emits with distinctive Surface Emissive Power, thus affecting in different way the incident radiation coming from a Pool Fire, Especially in the region very close to the flame. This upgrade was validated against Phast v8.2 and some experimental data present in literature.

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Oliveri, Giusto. "Scenari incidentali in un inceneritore di rifiuti speciali: un caso di studio." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2016. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/10184/.

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L’obiettivo del presente elaborato di tesi è quello di valutare le conseguenze di alcuni scenari incidentali per un termovalorizzatore di rifiuti speciali. Per le simulazioni è stato utilizzato il software EFFECTS, prodotto da un ente privato olandese, il TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research), e progettato per prevedere gli effetti fisici degli scenari incidentali.

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Orlando, Chiara. "Analisi critica di alcuni scenari di effetto domino in uno stabilimento a rischio di incidente rilevante." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2020.

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L’effetto domino è un incidente che si verifica in seguito alla propagazione di uno scenario incidentale sulle apparecchiature circostanti, dalle quali scaturiscono altri scenari incidentali. Gli scenari che potenzialmente sono in grado di innescare l’effetto domino sono le esplosioni e gli incendi. L’effetto domino può essere inter-stabilimento, se coinvolge apparecchiature di stabilimenti adiacenti, o intra-stabilimento, se si verifica tra le apparecchiature sotto la responsabilità di uno stesso gestore. Lo scopo di questo lavoro di tesi è stato quello di selezionare alcuni scenari di effetto domino intra-stabilimento causati da incendi che potrebbero verificarsi in uno stabilimento a rischio di incidente rilevante, al fine di individuare alcune strategie in grado di mitigare il rischio connesso a tali scenari, principalmente tramite l’introduzione di sistemi di protezione antincendio attiva e di funzioni di sicurezza strumentate.

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Littlejohn, Lexia M. "The impact of retreating sea ice on Arctic marine transport and development : an integrated risk and scenario-based approach to framing solutions for potential marine incidents /." May be available electronically:, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/login?COPT=REJTPTU1MTUmSU5UPTAmVkVSPTI=&clientId=12498.

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Marlier, Maudeline. "Interactions tangibles pour l’exploitation ferroviaire dans les centres opérationnels." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Bordeaux, 2025. http://www.theses.fr/2025BORD0025.

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Cette thèse explore le potentiel des interfaces tangibles (IT) et des objets tangibles actionnés pour améliorer la collaboration et la prise de décision dans les centres de contrôle ferroviaires. Malgré une intégration croissante d’outils numériques dans ces centres, le rôle des opérateurs reste crucial, notamment en période de crise, où une collaboration efficace est indispensable pour prendre des décisions critiques. Cette recherche débute par une analyse des centres de contrôle ferroviaires et montre le potentiel des IT pour interagir avec des informations numériques. À partir de cette analyse, j’ai développé un prototype d’IT démontrant comment les interactions tangibles peuvent améliorer la compréhension du réseau et des décisions lors d’un incident. J’ai ensuite élargi ce concept en concevant un deuxième prototype qui intègre des interactions tangibles actionnées pour répondre à des défis plus complexes, notamment en renforçant la collaboration et l’efficacité en situations de crise. Ensemble, ces prototypes explorent le potentiel des IT à transformer les opérations des centres de contrôle ferroviaire. Cette thèse examine également l’utilisation d’objets tangibles actionnés comme feedback pour de la collaboration à distance. Deux études ont été réalisées : la première explore la détectabilité des objets tangibles actionnés par rapport à un retour visuel seul lors d’une tâche exigeante. Les résultats suggèrent une meilleure perceptibilité des objets. La deuxième étude évalue si le feedback tangible permet aux utilisateurs de mieux percevoir les actions et la position de leur partenaire, sans attention soutenue, par rapport à un retour visuel seul. Les résultats suggèrent que les objets tangibles actionnés offrent une approche plus incarnée et efficace pour maintenir la conscience des activités en collaboration à distance. Ce travail de thèse met en avant les valeurs des interfaces tangibles et des interfaces tangibles actionnées pour partager des informations, aider les opérateurs à visualiser, comparer et résoudre les incidents de manière collaborative tout en comprenant les conséquences des décisions
This thesis explores how Tangible User Interfaces (TUIs) and actuated tangible objects can address collaboration and decision-making challenges in railway control centres. While railway control centres are increasingly incorporating digital tools, particularly with the expanding train traffic worldwide, the role of humans remains essential, especially during crises, when operators need to collaborate to make critical decisions. To tackle these challenges, this research begins with an analysis of railway control centres and the potential of TUIs to transform interactions by offering physical forms for digital information. From this analysis, I developed a tabletop prototype that demonstrated how tangible interactions can improve operators’ understanding of rail traffic scenarios and decision outcomes. I extended this concept by designing a second prototype. This new iteration introduced actuated tangible interactions to address more complex challenges, particularly enhancing collaboration and efficiency during crisis situations. Together, these prototypes explore the evolving potential of TUIs to transform railway control operations. Then, I investigates actuated tangible feedback in remote collaboration. I conducted two user studies: the first assessed the detectability of actuated tangible objects compared to visual-only feedback during a cognitively demanding task, showing that tangibles were significantly more noticeable. The second study focused on collaborative problem-solving, testing if tangible feedback allowed users to perceive their partner’s actions and location without requiring focused attention. Qualitative findings suggest that tangibles can offer a more embodied and effective approach to maintaining awareness in remote collaborative environments. Overall, this work highlights the value of TUIs and actuated interfaces to share information, help operators visualise, compare, and resolve incidents collaboratively while understanding the consequences of decisions

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Chen, Han-Shin, and 陳漢新. "The Research of Optimal Commander’s Command Decision-Making on the Incident Scenario.—Take the Extremely Severe Fire as an Example." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78274044952795976628.

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碩士
國立成功大學
工學院工程管理專班
96
Fire often follows painful tragedies. Rescuers always think over how to make the best command decision on the fire scenario. Deliberating domestic and international relevant documents, manuals and standard operation procedures (SOPs), even though the process is proclaimed in writing, it still takes the commander’s experiences to enforce. There are seldom references about fire growing-up stages to incorporate advanced tactics, warning and decision- making. Such a situation, lets rescuers make mistakes very easily and leads to neglect some more important missions like saving and evacuating victims. Our research deeply went into fire-fighting stations, applying several ways to collect and analyze some related cases, linguistic commands and the characteristics of chronometrics broadly. Inductive inferences the chronological serials (CSs) scale and decision hierarchy are constructed. Through the processes of fuzzy questionnaire, multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) and the software operational ranked the strategies. The priorities of fire commander’s decision factors are concluded as follows: on scene command > arriving judgement and dealing with > integrated information supplied and dispatching > fire callings information collection and estimation > on scene check and hand over. The strategies in sequence of "on scene command" stages are: rescue lives＞ventilation＞protect surrounding＞confine fires＞extinguish fires＞save properties＞ruins clean up.The consequences indicate us that many mistakes remain, some actions haven’t taken yet and they must be improved very soon. By verifying some real incidents, it’s found that clear command hierarchy, succinct and smooth command linguistics are the most important essences of mission success or failure. Chronological serial auxiliary analysis and an expert’s just in time decisions support can help balance the proportion of decision stages and offer a commander’s most correct information to deploy fire-fighting resources. In the future, we should combine and substantiate the command knowledge base, strengthen the calamity predictability, offer emergency operation feedback, parameter memory and study, build the trial systems and carry out exercise and drill...etc. We are appreciated that this research can dedicate its conclusion and benefit all emergency rescue decision- makings.

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CHEN, WEN-YANG, and 陳文暘. "The Study of Command on the Incident Scenario and Management System’s Configuration - An Example of a Large Factory in New Taipei City." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/62m5ts.

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碩士
中華科技大學
土木防災工程研究所在職專班
104
The density of population in metropolitan areas boosts the task of rescue during the fire. Meanwhile, the popular adoption of hazardous chemicals for the refinement on industry sharpens firemen’s challenge on the fire fighting in large factories as well as aggravates the judgments of the field commanders. In recent years a number of firefighters died in the fire rescue, which highlights the insufficiency of the labor force, and manifests the shortage of intact fire scene command and management system as well. Foreign literatures reveal two systems, Incident Command System (ICS) and Command and Control of Incident (CCIO), to the accidental scene management; which afford well-functional mechanism to the scene rescue during accidents. This study intends to discuss the possibility of good performance of the above systems during the large factories’ fire. This study adopts literature reviews, experts’ interviews, and questionnaire through the analysis by Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) statistical software. The results display the approval by the interviewees to the "Initial Commander's Command" is 91.4%, and 78.5% to the "Spare Manpower"; the criticism to the insufficiency of the “Existing Channel Grouping at the Scene of Accidents” is 75.3%, and 60% to the unclearness of the “Rules to Contemporary Command-and-Control at Accident Scene”. Besides, 91.4% requests the installation of the “Rest Area” for long-term rescue. Moreover, the study also shows the problems of the imperfect grouping on the scene telecommunication affects the effective conveyance of required data, the improper positions of equipment’s and vehicles impede the fire rescue, and the imperfect command-and-control at fire scene; these can be the topics for further studies. In addition, verification and research to all the issues of different perspectives should be applied for well-prepared data for decision makers’ reference. Key Words: ICS, CCIO, large factories, experts’ interviews

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Книги з теми "Incident scenario"

Gatti, Claudio. Il quinto scenario. Milano: Rizzoli, 1994.

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(Firm), PaceWildenstein, ed. Rauschenberg: Scenarios and the ancient incident. New York, NY: PaceWildenstein, 2006.

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Schiffman, Mike. Hacker's challenge: Test your incident response skills using 20 scenarios. New York: Osborne/McGraw-Hill, 2001.

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Schiffman, Mike. Hacker's challenge: Test your incident response skills using 20 scenarios. New York: Osborne/McGraw-Hill, 2001.

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Tom, Smith. Outdoor experiential leadership: Scenarios describing incidents, dilemmas, and opportunities. Lake Geneva, WI: Racoon Institute Pub., 2006.

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United States. Congress. House. Select Committee on Homeland Security. Practice makes perfect: Strengthening homeland security by exercising terrorism scenarios : hearing before the Select Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eighth Congress, second session, July 8, 2004. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2006.

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Steven A. Hall and David R. Hall. The Diva Incident. Lulu.com, 2007.

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The Diva Incident: Prologue To The Continuum. Orange California: Lulu.com, 2007.

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Stewart, Alex G., Sam Ghebrehewet, and David Baxter. Business continuity: Illustrated by hospital ward closures. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198745471.003.0013.

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This chapter describes the strategies for business continuity when a significant challenging event affects a hospital or other healthcare provider: the scenario is a norovirus outbreak affecting several wards and staff. The strategy includes business impact analysis and a disaster recovery plan. The importance of developing a generic response plan, rather than a response for each type of incident, is emphasized. The early involvement of the infection control team, isolating or cohorting patients, and liaison with the community are essential components of the response. The chapter describes how a ‘less serious event’ (a few reported cases) may rapidly escalate into a major incident. The business continuity plan should be implemented early, and should identify which services can be stopped, and which must continue. Finally, the importance of holding a multi-agency and multi-professional debrief meeting as soon as the incident is declared over is emphasized, with revision of the plan accordingly.

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Mitchem, Laura, Henrietta Harrison, and Alex G. Stewart. Fire and fear: Immediate and long-term health aspects. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198745471.003.0014.

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Fires can cause significant health concerns within local communities impacted by any associated smoke plume. This chapter discusses the potential public health concerns associated with fires, in particular fires at waste-processing installations. Using an example scenario, actions to be undertaken throughout the incident response, from initial acute phase to recovery, are considered, along with health concerns and fears, real or perceived, involvement of asbestos-contaminant material, multi-agency communication mechanisms, and potential issues associated with long-running fires. The multi-agency mechanisms for response are detailed, including the various coordinating groups (strategic, tactical, recovery coordinating groups (SCG, TCG, RCG, respectively), and expert cells (scientific and technical advisor cell, air quality cell (AQC)). Key points to note in the incident response include concerns raised by the local population, typical health effects associated with exposure to a smoke plume, and tools that support the response to the incident and the public health risk assessment.

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Greiner, Maximilian, Judith Strussenberg, Andreas Seiler, Stefan Hofbauer, Michael Schuster, Damian Stano, Günter Fahrnberger, Stefan Schauer, and Ulrike Lechner. "Scared? Prepared? Toward a Ransomware Incident Response Scenario." In Innovations for Community Services, 289–320. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-60433-1_17.

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Sharma, Ashish, and Fiona M. Johnson. "Latest Advances and Challenges in Extreme Flood 3D Simulation." In Arts, Research, Innovation and Society, 25–36. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56114-6_3.

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AbstractThis chapter canvasses the latest developments in the modelling and communication of environmental extremes, with a focus on floods. Three scenarios are explored. The first refers to real-time prediction, including the current modelling basis that is adopted, and the visualisation/communication strategies in place. The second refers to an environmental extreme event that is conditional to a failure scenario, as is the case when an existing infrastructure (i.e. levee or spillway in an extreme flood) fails. The third, more complex scenario is the occurrence of a compound or joint extreme, possibly in the future, where extreme storms will intensify. A compound extreme here could represent a flood event that follows from an incident of rare storm conditions on a fire-damaged landscape. While the modelling challenges are significant, visualisation is even more challenging, as the scenario occurs under a hypothetical future. Demonstrating how coupled models can support the anticipation of extreme event scenarios, the chapter considers implications for risk assessment and communication that can support future preparedness and resilience. Surveying knowledge gaps that still need to be bridged, the authors formulate a list of key requirements in the fields of data availability, processing and representation.

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Alwi, Halim, Christopher Edwards, Olaf Stroosma, and Jan Albert (Bob) Mulder. "Model Reference Sliding Mode FTC with SIMONA Simulator Evaluation: EL AL Flight 1862 Bijlmermeer Incident Scenario." In Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences, 501–17. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11690-2_18.

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Guerrero, Claudia V. S., Maria de F. Q. V. Turnell, Jean-Marc Mercantini, Eugène Chouraqui, Fernando A. Q. Vieira, and Madson R. B. Pereira. "Modelling Incident Scenarios." In IFIP International Federation for Information Processing, 77–92. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-8153-7_6.

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Gorse, Keith M., Francis Feld, and Robert O. Blanc. "Pole Vaulting Incident." In Athletic Training Case Scenarios, 107–8. New York: Routledge, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003522676-55.

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Sawaragi, Tetsuo, Kouichi Ito, Yukio Horiguchi, and Hiroaki Nakanishi. "Identifying Latent Similarities among Near-Miss Incident Records Using a Text-Mining Method and a Scenario-Based Approach." In Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 594–603. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02559-4_65.

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Guerrero, Claudia V. S., M. Fatima Q. Vieira, Jean-Marc Mercantini, and Charles Santoni. "A Process for Human Centered Modelling of Incident Scenarios." In Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 439–58. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-89350-9_31.

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Cormack, Douglas. "Possible Incident Scenarios and Response Needs Based on the Sea Empress Experience." In Response to Marine Oil Pollution — Review and Assessment, 343–60. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9301-4_11.

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Krüger, Uwe, Aygul Gabdulkhakova, Birgitta König-Ries, and Clemens Beckstein. "Semantic Services for Information and Management Support in Mass Casualty Incident Scenarios." In Towards a Service-Based Internet. ServiceWave 2010 Workshops, 59–66. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22760-8_6.

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di Masi, Alessandra, Cristiano Pesaresi, Stefano Di Bella, and Cosimo Palagiano. "Possible Implications of Annual Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Tick-Borne Encephalitis and West Nile Virus Incidence in Italy, Between 2010 and 2020." In Climate Change and Human Health Scenarios, 191–212. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38878-1_13.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Incident scenario"

Bisht, Rajendra Singh, Mohammed Al-Farouni, Mr Dharmesh Dhabi, Falah Hassan Abdullah, Tareq Hafdhi Abdtawfeeq, Abdul Hassan Majli Jaafar, and Ali Abdulkareem Mezaal. "Utilizing AI and IoT Communication for SMART Environment System in Intrusion and Fire Incident Scenarios." In 2024 4th International Conference on Advance Computing and Innovative Technologies in Engineering (ICACITE), 1047–50. IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icacite60783.2024.10617076.

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Lyu, Mengtao, and Fan Li. "Patterning Risk: An Innovative Task Design Method for Simulating Incidents in Transportation Studies." In 15th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2024). AHFE International, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1005198.

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The development of alternative tasks is pivotal in transportation safety research, particularly when resource constraints hinder the execution of incident simulations. Traditionally, many studies have relied on expert knowledge and subjective judgments to design such alternative tasks. However, a systematic methodology is lacking. This work proposes a novel task design approach by constructing a Task Knowledge Graph (TKG). The proposed approach leverages the Knowledge Graph to delineate the hierarchical and logical relationships of necessary operations of human operators in the incident scenarios. Such TKG patterns the risks to provide a theoretical foundation for designing alternative tasks. A case study is provided in this work to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. In the case study, a modified Stroop game was designed to pattern the task demand of pilots during engine shutdown incidents. The results showed that the Stroop game could evoke similar eye movements in the participants as the engine shutdown scenario replicated on a simulator. Overall, the proposed approach offers a feasible tool for designing alternative tasks to obtain human behaviour data when direct replication of research scenarios is impractical.

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Muraoka, Koji, and Noriaki Okada. "FBSS-RAIS flight crew behavior simulation system - Reconstruction of accident/incident scenario." In Modeling and Simulation Technologies Conference. Reston, Virigina: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2000-4587.

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Ambastha, Priyambada, and Maunendra Sankar Desarkar. "Incident Detection From Social Media Targeting Indian Traffic Scenario Using Transfer Learning." In 2020 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/itsc45102.2020.9294295.

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Moreira, Guilherme Baesso, Vanusa Menditi Calegario, Julio Cesar Duarte, and Anderson Fernandes Pereira dos Santos. "CSIHO: An Ontology for Computer Security Incident Handling." In Simpósio Brasileiro de Segurança da Informação e de Sistemas Computacionais, 1–14. Sociedade Brasileira de Computação - SBC, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5753/sbseg.2018.4239.

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The information technology advancements in the last decades led the society to a growing process of dependency on computer systems and Internet-based services. This complex and dynamic scenario implies more challenging cyberdefense initiatives, but, although the industry is applying countless efforts to ensure the Information Security, considerable growth in frequency and severity of incidents is still observed. The primary objective of this work is to present a new model for incident handling, described as an ontology, which is easily extensible and integrable with other models, besides allowing logical inferences and simplifying the knowledge transfer within a collaborative cyber defense context. Among its contributions, the creation of the Computer Security Incident Handling Ontology (CSIHO), in OWL format, can be highlighted. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the ontology, SPARQL queries were created based on competency questions derived from CSIHO, which, as far as we know, is the first cyber security ontology that focuses on incident handling and defines and implements the fundamental concepts of security events while also supporting the recording of temporal aspects of an incident.

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"Human reliability assessment for tank overfilling incident utilizing minimized human performance shaping factors." In Sustainable Processes and Clean Energy Transition. Materials Research Forum LLC, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.21741/9781644902516-17.

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Abstract. Human errors are identified as significant contributors to process industry accidents. Human reliability analysis (HRA) has been conducted in previous studies to improve human performance in several industrial operations. However, human error predictions are greatly influenced by various performance-shaping factors (PSFs). Research also demonstrates that PSFs are interdependent, which thereby complicates the modeling and analysis. Therefore, this study performs HRA, for a tank overfilling accident scenario that resulted due to human failure. Fewer independent PSFs through careful classification were used to estimate tank overfilling probability resulting from different human-triggered factors. For HRA, this study uses a combination of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The failure probability distributions of individual interconnecting tasks were calculated using SPAR-H, and the probabilistic interdependence of each task to the final tank overfilling scenario was modeled using a BBN. From the current analysis, divergent stream identification is determined as the key to lead tank overfilling with 40% probability. This study concludes that BBN can be reliably employed in the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) framework to examine human factors in industrial failure probability estimation for various other human-related industrial accident scenarios.

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Woskov, Stephen M., Michael R. Grimaila, Robert F. Mills, and Michael W. Haas. "Design considerations for a case-based reasoning engine for scenario-based cyber incident notification." In 2011 IEEE Symposium On Computational Intelligence In Cyber Security - Part Of 17273 - 2011 Ssci. IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cicybs.2011.5949397.

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Nakayama, Kenta, Ichiro Koshijima, and Kenji Watanabe. "Analyzing important factors in cybersecurity incidents using table-top exercise." In 15th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2024). AHFE International, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1004770.

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In recent years, the threat of cyber-attacks has been increasing yearly. Various organizations should take countermeasures for it. In the face of increasing threats, organizations need to take not only technical measures but also human countermeasures. However, cyber-attacks themselves are becoming more sophisticated, so it is important for organizations to prepare countermeasures and organizational structures based on the assumption that incidents due to cyber-attacks will occur. Moreover organizations are required to minimize the damage caused by cyber-attack incidents and continue their business operations.This study focused on human countermeasures especially organizational structures, designed an incident response exercise, and conducted it with approximately 60 members of a critical infrastructure company in Japan. Based on the records of the exercise and the results of the post-exercise questionnaire, these results examine organizational and human barriers that organizations may face in incident response and the organizational structure that minimizes the damage from incidents. The incident response exercise was based on a scenario in which a hypothetical local infrastructure company was infected with ransomware and could not fulfill its role as a local infrastructure. The roles of management, IT department, and upper-level managers and personnel in the field departments were defined, and how incident response would be conducted from each position was examined. The exercise was recorded chronologically using the chronology used in disaster recovery, and the instructions given by whom and to whom were organized in chronological order so that the participants could look back on the details of their responses after the exercise. A questionnaire survey was conducted after the exercise, and the exercise itself received a high evaluation, with an average score of 4 or higher out of 5. In addition, information on important items in incident response, including changes before and after the exercise, was collected through free-response statements. Context-based evaluation and analysis of the collected results revealed what members of the Japanese critical infrastructure community consider important in incident response. Furthermore, from the contents recorded in chronology during the exercise, the process of escalation and decision-making to management and upper management was analyzed to identify barriers such as delays in reporting and decision-making that may lead to the expansion of incident damage. In addition, based on the results of these analyses, we will deepen our thinking and make recommendations on the organizational structure and transfer of authority for rapid incident response.

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Jorge Alejandro Cristancho, C., M. Jorge Enrique Rodriguez, G. Carlos Andres Rivera, and Francisco Roman. "Lightning Incident with Multiple Natives Injured in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta - Colombia : Description of Scenario." In 2019 International Symposium on Lightning Protection (XV SIPDA). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sipda47030.2019.8951570.

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Chase, Jonathan, Duc Thien Nguyen, Haiyang Sun, and Hoong Chuin Lau. "Improving Law Enforcement Daily Deployment Through Machine Learning-Informed Optimization under Uncertainty." In Twenty-Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-19}. California: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2019/806.

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Urban law enforcement agencies are under great pressure to respond to emergency incidents effectively while operating within restricted budgets. Minutes saved on emergency response times can save lives and catch criminals, and a responsive police force can deter crime and bring peace of mind to citizens. To efficiently minimize the response times of a law enforcement agency operating in a dense urban environment with limited manpower, we consider in this paper the problem of optimizing the spatial and temporal deployment of law enforcement agents to predefined patrol regions in a real-world scenario informed by machine learning. To this end, we develop a mixed integer linear optimization formulation (MIP) to minimize the risk of failing response time targets. Given the stochasticity of the environment in terms of incident numbers, location, timing, and duration, we use Sample Average Approximation (SAA) to find a robust deployment plan. To overcome the sparsity of real data, samples are provided by an incident generator that learns the spatio-temporal distribution and demand parameters of incidents from a real world historical dataset and generates sets of training incidents accordingly. To improve runtime performance across multiple samples, we implement a heuristic based on Iterated Local Search (ILS), as the solution is intended to create deployment plans quickly on a daily basis. Experimental results demonstrate that ILS performs well against the integer model while offering substantial gains in execution time.

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Звіти організацій з теми "Incident scenario"

Rouil, Richard, Antonio Izquierdo Manzanares, Chunmei Liu, and Wesley Garey. Modeling Public Safety Communication Scenarios: School Shooting Incident. National Institute of Standards and Technology, October 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.6028/nist.tn.2186.

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Choong, Yee-Yin, Shanee Dawkins, Kristen Greene, and Mary Theofanos. Incident scenarios collection for public safety communications research: framing the context of use. Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, June 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.6028/nist.ir.8181.

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Hertel, Thomas, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030. GTAP Working Paper, February 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/gtap.wp59.

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Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10-60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20-50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by equal amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields – or highly aggregated poverty impacts.

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Fisac, Ramón, César Buenadicha Sánchez, Laura Torà Carod, Fabio De Almeida Pinto, Michael Hofmann, Aminta Pérez-Gold, Arantza Loza, Diego Pérez, and Carlos Guiza. Sustainable Energy Distribution in Latin America: Study on Inclusive Distribution Networks. Inter-American Development Bank, September 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0006520.

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The study provides details on distribution networks, access to finance, type of technologies and incidence on policies for the development and scaling up of models led by private entrepreneurs committed to providing electricity to the last mile population in Latin America. This ideal scenario is strengthened by the recent Paris climate change agreement which seeks to increase international aid to support the transfer of sustainable technologies and the generation of resilience tools for climate change.

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Hailiang, Zhang, Wang Fuxiang, Sha Shengyi, Dai Lianshuang, Xuan Wenbo, and Ren Zhong. PR-469-173823-R01 In Line Inspection and Evaluation of Pinholes in Oil and Gas Pipelines. Chantilly, Virginia: Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), July 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0011604.

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Pinhole leaks have been reported as a significant cause of oil and gas pipeline failures in recent years. From 2010 to 2015, at least 131 significant incidents involving oil and gas pipelines in the United States (101 and 30, respectively) were attributed to pinhole leaks. The 9th European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group Report states that as of 2013, the five-year moving average failure frequency for pinholes was equal to an approximate annual rate of 0.105 failures per 1,000 kilometers of pipeline(1). Pinholes may result from normal pipeline corrosion during routine operations, such as microbiologically induced corrosion, or can be created by third-party activities, such as illegal tapping. These small leaks have become a major risk for many pipeline companies. Pinhole leaks are more likely to lead to serious consequences than larger leaks because they are difficult to discover through normal monitoring and patrolling. An undetected pinhole leak can lead to significant soil and groundwater pollution over time. The research objective of this project was to investigate the applicability of magnetic flux leakage (MFL) to the inspection of oil and gas pipelines for pinhole defects. The MFL signal may be affected by pinhole diameter, depth, position, and so on. MFL inline inspection (ILI) technologies from five vendors were tested in blind scenarios involving pipeline with manufactured defects. Multiple pull through tests, field dig verification, and sampling were conducted to assess the effectiveness of MFL-ILI in pinhole detection. An optimal practice was developed by comparing the gap between MFL tracks, sampling frequency, intensity of magnetic field, etc. This report also outlines tests conducted to investigate the feasibility of using hydrostatic testing to detect pinholes.

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Leis, B. N., O. C. Chang, and T. A. Bubenik. GTI-000232 Leak vs Rupture for Steel Low-Stress Pipelines. Chantilly, Virginia: Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), January 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0011871.

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Pipeline codes and regulations worldwide have less stringent requirements for low-wall stress pipelines. Factors underlying this include a reduced exposure zone as pipeline pressure decreases and the expectation that leaks occur for lower wall stress. This report evaluates leak versus rupture as a function of wall stress with a focus on pipelines operating between 20 to 40 percent of the specified minimum yield stress. Potential threats to the integrity of low-stress pipelines are identified and worst-case scenarios for these threats evaluated to determine leak versus rupture as a function of wall stress. The evaluation is based on an assessment of existing full-scale test data, incident experience in the United States, and mechanics and fracture calculations.

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Erturk, Omer Faruk, Ihsan Yilmaz, and Chloe Smith. Blame Avoidance through Necropolitics and Religious Populism: Autocratic Responses to Nationwide Crises in an Authoritarian Islamist Polity. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), September 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55271/pp0038.

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Blame avoidance, a strategic distancing from culpability following events resulting in the deaths of citizens of a country, has often been studied in democratic contexts, yet its manifestation in authoritarian scenarios remains understudied. This study addresses this gap by scrutinizing empirical data derived from Turkey’s party in power, the AKP, and their political narratives and policies concerning these fatalities. Synthesizing the concepts of blame avoidance and necropolitics, it investigates how Turkey’s ruling competitive authoritarian party uses blame-shifting strategies to account for deaths resulting from negligence. Employing a conceptualization of martyrdom intertwined with religious populism, the party appeals to both religious and nationalistic sentiments and succeeds in sidestepping responsibility and accountability for these tragic incidents.

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Agudelo-Rivera, Camila, Clark Granger-Castaño, and Andrés Sánchez-Jabba. The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account. Banco de la República Colombia, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1214.

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This study analyzes the expected effects of climate change on Colombia’s current account. To this end, we present a literature review that outlines how climate-related risks could impact the balance of payments, complemented with an analysis that illustrates how the 2014-2015 oil shock affected the country's external sector. Subsequently, we show a projection of the current account balance through 2050 under different climate scenarios in order to establish whether the incidence of these risks would affect the country’s long-run current account. Our results indicate that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 could widen the current account deficit, relative to a continuation of current climate policies, by an amount ranging between 2.6% and 4.6% of GDP.

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Chepeliev, Maksym, Israel Osorio Rodarte, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe. Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing Policies under Paris Agreement: Inter and Intra-Regional Perspectives. GTAP Working Paper, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/gtap.wp88.

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While bringing multiple benefits for the environment, achievement of the stringent global greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, like the one outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement, is associated with significant implementation costs and could impact different dimensions of human well-being, including welfare, poverty and distributional aspects. In this paper, we analyze the poverty and distributional impacts of different carbon pricing mechanisms consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement targets. We link a global recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model ENVISAGE with the GIDD microsimulation model and explore three levels of mitigation effort and five carbon pricing options (trade coalitions). Results suggest that while there is a higher incidence of poverty in all scenarios, mainly driven by lower economic growth, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) policies result in progressive income distribution at the global level. Such progressivity is caused not only by lower relative prices of food versus non-food commodities, but also by a general decline in skill wage premia.

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Wan, Wilfred, and Nivedita Raju. Escalation Risks at the Space–Nuclear Nexus. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, February 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55163/fzdw6296.

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Space systems are essential for nuclear and non-nuclear missions for China, Russia and the United States, with the space domain central in their national security strategies. Amid the strategic competition and rivalry between the three states, their threat perceptions exhibit unprecedented levels of worst-case scenario thinking, signalling a preparedness to respond with force in case of attacks or incidents involving space systems. Escalation risks in outer space, even possibly extending to the use of nuclear weapons, thus appear to be growing, especially as the deterrent role of such weapons is expanding to account for more capabilities with strategic effect. While different variables will impact escalation dynamics at the intersection of outer space, nuclear weapons and related systems (the ‘space–nuclear nexus’), some factors clearly contribute to the risk of escalation. These include strategic ambiguity and unclear red lines on what actions could result in potential nuclear retaliation. These fuzzy red lines are further blurred by the many uncertainties in space operations, such as congestion of orbits, considerations of potential civilian harm, the role of commercial actors in space, and the integration of artificial intelligence into space systems. Additional space–nuclear-related risk reduction measures are therefore vital. This paper proposes measures at the multilateral, bilateral and unilateral levels for China, Russia and the USA to consider.

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