Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Posture of War"

The essay aims to explain interconnections between international security, domestic politics and nuclear strategy of China, India and Pakistan. Most of the scholarship has been unable to probe the deep interconnections that inform the nuclear strategy of these three countries. The literature is based on a generalisation of the superpowers’ Cold War nuclear experience and an analysis of the other nuclear powers’ arsenal is made through the conceptual and theoretical categories offered by such literature. This article argues against using cold war experiences as a basis for conceptualizing regional powers’ nuclear strategies. It begins with a discussion on Posture optimization theory, applying it to understand nuclear strategies of the three Southern Asian nuclear powers and seeks to understand the nature of strategic competition between them and its effect on their respective nuclear postures.

ABSTRACTThis article examines Tony Blair’s policy and posture on Iraq through the prism of the special relationship in which he was reared. At the same time, it examines his policy and posture on the special relationship through the prism of Iraq. In this context it proposes a Vietnam analogy of a kind, with reference to Blair’s white-hot predecessor Harold Wilson: a curious affinity of fate – disenchantment, disgrace, and moral ruination.

During the twentieth century the United States has called upon its economy to support a war effort four times: for World War I, World War II, the Korean conflict, and the Vietnam War. The experience of these four military buildups has led to a formal body of mobilization planning incorporating a number of implicit assumptions as to an appropriate mobilization posture. This article reviews the mobilization record of each war and traces the development of the accompanying mobilization doctrine.

Current U.S. nuclear strategy identifies new nuclear counterforce missions as a means of impeding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The strategy appears to overvalue these counterforce missions. U.S. conventional weapons can destroy most targets that can be destroyed with nuclear weapons; only moderately deep and precisely located targets can be destroyed only by nuclear weapons. In addition, the benefits of nuclear counterforce-which could include deterrence, damage limitation, and the continued ability of the United States to pursue its foreign policy objectives-are relatively small, because the United States possesses large nuclear forces and highly effective conventional forces. Finally, nuclear counterforce would bring a variety of costs, including an increased probability of accidental war and unnecessary preemptive attacks in a severe crisis. Nevertheless, the case for nuclear counterforce is stronger than during the Cold War, when the enormous size and redundancy of U.S. and Soviet forces rendered counterforce useless. When facing a small nuclear force, the United States may decide to use counterforce to limit damage. Although complex trade-offs are involved, if there are critical targets that can be destroyed only with nuclear weapons, then under a narrow set of conditions the benefits of planning for damage limitation might exceed the dangers. The United States must not, however, rely on nuclear counterforce to support a more assertive foreign policy; doing so would unjustifiably increase the probability of nuclear war.

Resumo: Nossa contribuição visa a refletir sobre o processo de ficcionalização da Guerra Civil Espanhola no romance Saga, de Erico Veríssimo, publicado em 1940. Neste caso, a relação entre Literatura e História desempenha um papel fundamental, pois o escritor tomou por base o diário de um ex-brigadista brasileiro para escrever seu romance sobre a guerra fratricida que assolou a Península Ibérica entre os anos de 1936 e 1939. Saga também documenta o engajamento político de Erico Veríssimo, numa postura contrária ao regime autoritário vigente no Brasil, na época de sua publicação: o Estado Novo.Palavras-chave: Guerra Civil Espanhola; Erico Veríssimo; Saga.Abstract: This contribution aims at to reflect about the process of fictionalizing of the Spanish Civil War on Erico Veríssimo’s novel Saga, published in 1940. In this case, the relationship between Literature and History plays a fundamental role, since the writer used as basis the diary of a Brazilian ex-brigadist to write his novel about the fratricide war that destroyed the Iberian Peninsula between 1936 and 1939. Besides Saga documents Erico Veríssimo’s political engagement on a posture against the authoritarian regime in Brazil at the time from his publishing: the called “New State”.Keywords: Spanish Civil War; Erico Veríssimo; Saga.

From the days of Plato's Academy, academic life and discourse have operated in tension with political life, and often the political life of democracy. Since World War II, this tension has been read as essentially antagonistic. In this survey of the relationship of the original and subsequent incarnations of the Academy to ancient Athens, republican Rome, and the Florentine city-state, it becomes clear that the tension was, in fact, potentially as much of an asset to democracy as an assault upon it—even as the tension forever remained real. Readings of Plato and vers ions of the Academy become antagonistic to civic life only when their intellectual posture takes refuge in metaphysical doctrines or political ideologies that bear only marginal connections to the effective argument of Plato's dialogues or the initial political postures of Academic life.

This thesis will examine the Electronic Warfare [EW] policies and subsequent Suppression of Enemy Air Defence [SEAD] postures of the Royal Air Force’s Bomber Command during the Second World War. It examines how EW was applied to the Luftwaffe (German Air Force) Integrated Air Defence System [IADS] so as to reduce Bomber Command aircraft losses, and determines whether EW policies were drafted in a proactive and/or reactive fashion vis-à-vis the Luftwaffe IADS. The thesis applies air power theory regarding the levels and methods of application by which SEAD was brought to bear against the IADS as a result of these EW policies. Ultimately, the thesis will argue that Bomber Command enacted both proactive and reactive EW policies at the Campaign and Localised SEAD levels using a combination of Manoeuvrist, Mass and Stealth/Surprise approaches.

This thesis takes the initial steps to find what it calls a ‘posture of peace’, a counterpart to what Hobbes refers to as a posture of war (Hobbes 1651/2004: 79)1. A posture of war representsdefensive initiatives that can be interpreted by others as a certain preparation for conflict, and its base definition is used as a template to formulate an initial version of a posture of peace2.While keeping this concept as an overarching theme throughout the thesis explores the concepts of nuclear posture and a credible minimum deterrence (CMD) through the examples of India and Pakistan. While the thesis discusses four different nuclear postures, there really are only two categories, namely the pro-nuclear and anti-nuclear posture. The main examples of pronuclear posture used here is the case of India and Pakistan, two geographical neighbouring Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) who have been experiencing ongoing frictions and conflicts since (and prior to) becoming nuclear powers. On the other side Kazakhstan serves as an example of an anti-nuclear posture and in regards to the nuclear debate a possible empirical example of a posture of peace. In addition to these postures there is also the concept of NonOffensive Defence (NOD), which is more exemplified in the Kazakhstan’s approach to their nuclear situation as well as their more contemporary initiative in collaboration with several other neighbouring states to form the Central Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (CANWFZ). The thesis concludes that while NOD finds little support in pro-nuclear posturing, there is ample space for it over on the ani-nuclear posture side of the spectrum which in addition aligns more with the present interpretation of a posture of peace. Moreover, the CANWFZ initiative appears to be as close a perfect example of a NOD in the present case and as close as this stage of the research will come to observing a posture of peace.

Despite the emergence of historical scholarship concerning masculinity in the past two decades, historians have largely failed to examine masculinity during either of the two World Wars. This thesis examines the use of masculinity within a selection of posters that the British government's Parliamentary Recruitment Committee produced during their preconscription period in World War I (1914-1915). Using a visual template to deconstruct the designs and messages of the selected posters, the thesis contends that the posters incorporated familiar prewar masculine images and ideas in order to lure potential recruits into the British army. The posters' use of prewar masculine ideology also contributed to their idyllic presentation of war, which differed significantly from the actual experiences of British soldiers. In addition to poster analysis, this thesis examines how British boys became familiar with "militaristic masculinity" in the prewar period, as well as the modern poster and its prominent role within the PRC campaign.
Department of History

Mestrado em Fisioterapia
Introduction: Ankle sprains are a common injury and fibularis longus plays an important role improving functional stability. Neuromuscular tape seems to improve muscle force, although little is known regarding its effect on latency time and postural sway. Objectives: To examine the effects of Neuromuscular Taping on fibularis longus latency time and postural sway in healthy subjects. Methods: Thirty subjects were randomized into the experimental group 1 (n=10, age 22.4 ± 3.0 years), experimental group 2 (n=10, age 22.6 ± 2.37 years) and control groups (n=10, age 23.5 ± 6.3 years). Before and after the intervention, postural sway was assessed on a force plate and fibularis longus latency time was recorded with surface electromyography during a sudden inversion perturbation. In the experimental group 1, the Neuromuscular Tape was applied from the origin to the insertion of the fibularis longus and then subjects rested with the tape applied during 20 minutes. In the experimental group 2, the Neuromuscular Tape was applied from the insertion to the origin of the fibularis longus and then subjects rested with the tape applied during 20 minutes. The control group rested during the same period without Neuromuscular Tape. Results: At baseline, no differences were found between groups regarding age, anthropometrics variables, postural sway, fibularis longus latency time, peak (%) and peak time. No significant differences were observed within each group between baseline and postintervention measures of Postural Sway (CoPx, p= .485; CoPy, p=.995; Total CoP, p= .983; CoP velocity, p=.979; CoP area, p=.506) and EMG (FLTL, p= .548; peak percentage, p=.185; peak time, p=.748). Conclusion: Neuromuscular tape did not enhance peroneal reaction time and postural sway in young healthy subjects.
Introdução: O entorse da Tibiotársica é uma lesão comum e o músculo Longo Peroneal tem um papel importante na estabilidade funcional da articulação. As Bandas Neuromusculares parecem melhorar a força muscular, embora pouco se sabe sobre o seu efeito no tempo de latência e na estabilidade postural. Objetivos: Verificar o efeito das Bandas Neuromusculares no Tempo de Latência do Longo Peroneal e na estabilidade postural em indivíduos saudáveis. Métodos: Trinta indivíduos foram randomizados para o grupo experimental 1 (n=10, idade 22.4 ± 3.0 anos), grupo experimental 2 (n=10, idade 22.6 ± 2.37 anos) e no grupo de controlo (n=10, idade 23.5 ± 6.3 anos). No grupo experimental 1, as bandas neuromusculares foram aplicadas desde a origem até à inserção do longo peroneal. No grupo experimental 2, as bandas neuromusculares foram aplicadas da inserção para a origem do longo peroneal. Após a aplicação da banda os elementos dos dois grupos experimentais permaneceram em repouso durante vinte minutos. No grupo de controlo não foi aplicada qualquer banda neuromuscular, tendo os invidíduos permanecido em em repouso ao longo de 20 minutos. Antes e após os 20 minutos de intervenção/controlo, a estabilidade postural foi avaliada numa plataforma de forças e o tempo de latência do longo peroneal foi avaliado com eletromiografia de superfície no decurso de uma perturbação forçada por inversão da tiobiotársica. Resultados: Não foram encontradas diferenças entre grupos tendo em conta a idade, variáveis antropométricas, estabilidade postural, tempo de latência do longo peroneal, percentagem do pico de contração e tempo do pico de contração. Não foram encontradas diferenças dentro de cada grupo entre os valores antes e após-intervenção na estabilidade postural (CoPx, p= .485; CoPy, p=.995; CoP Total, p= .983; velocidade do CoP, p=.979; área do CoP, p=.506) e na eletromiografia (tempo de latência do longo peroneal, p= .548; percentagem do pico, p=.185; tempo do pico, p=.748). Conclusão: As bandas neuromusculares não melhoram o tempo de latência do longo peroneal e a estabilidade postural em jovem adultos saudáveis.

Historically, nationalism has been most apparent during times of conflict and struggle. During the First World War, every nation involved attempted to mobilize both industry and manpower towards the war effort. Unlike the other Belligerent Powers, Britain was encumbered by a tradition of voluntary enlistment until the introduction of conscription in 1916. This meant that the government had to convince the men of their nation to join the military. Many scholars have studied the role of recruitment posters in this historical endeavor as well as the role played by society in persuading young men to join the military. This Thesis couples both lines of historiography in order to better understand how the British government targeted a man's masculinity in order to recruit him. Victorian middle-class gendered concepts of public service, private/public spheres, fraternal obligations and ethnicity were all depicted on the surfaces of British recruitment posters. Thus this Thesis argues that the presence of these masculine markers within British recruitment propaganda suggests the British government attempted to mobilize masculinity towards winning the First World War. It also presses for a gendered view of nationalism in the historiography concerned with understanding British nationalist sentiment during the early twentieth-century. By integrating gender and nationalism into a visual analysis of various British war posters, it offers a new perspective on the government's recruitment strategies employed during the first two years of the First World War.

Thesis (M.A.)--Cleveland State University, 2008.
Abstract. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on July 9, 2008). Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-69). Available online via the OhioLINK ETD Center. Also available in print.

From 1816 onwards, British peace campaigners used a variety of art, artefacts and spectacle to advertise their aims and indicate their presence. This historical review examines issues surrounding the production and display of visual peace propaganda by national and local organizations, and by individual members including artists. The focus is on the period 1900 to1940, although earlier and later material is included. Many of the themes and issues are still current today. The aims of this research were diverse and therefore this thesis adopts a variety of approaches, drawn from peace history, art history and ephemera studies. The perspective wherever possible is that of the campaigners themselves, including perceived successes and failures. Aesthetic qualities and iconography are also addressed however, particularly when examining the work of professional artists. Chapter 1 uncovers the history of Quaker peace posters produced for national and local use, including the images and messages on them, how they were displayed, and by whom_ Chapters 2 and 3 analyse issues surrounding the indoor and outdoor campaigning of the lively peace movement of the 1930s, which from the middle of the decade was centred on the Peace Pledge Union. Examples of governmental, public and private censorship appear, arising from such diverse activities as wearing a white poppy or displaying a peace poster. Included are descriptions of peace shops, amateur and professional peace exhibitions, poster parades and the work of selected cartoonists. Chapters 4 and 5 examine the peace images and organizational involvement of two artists of national importance whose lives spanned the period covered. Joseph E.Southall, a Quaker tempera artist, was involved with socialism. Eric Gill, sculptor, engraver and typographer, helped to found Pax, the first organization for Catholic pacifists, and was on Peace Pledge Union national committees. The Conclusion states that the majority of campaigning activities took place at local rather than national level. Designs and images were produced by both amateur and trained artists and were therefore of varying quality. There was a preferred avoidance of war images — yet difficulty in establishing an iconography of peace, at a time when the use of allegorical personifications was declining. Volume 2 contains approximately five hundred illustrations.

AbstractThe North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is back in the business of deterring aggression on the part of Russia. This return to great power deterrence has brought widely acknowledged military challenges related to power projection, force modernization, and burden sharing but also and notably a political challenge of defining NATO’s collective political ambitions for a continental order in which Russia will not become like the West. Like during the Cold War, the most convincing posture for NATO has become one of deterrence by punishment, building on a fairly dynamic military ability to strike Russia at a point of choosing, as opposed to defending every entry point to Alliance territory. However, NATO, not sure of what political order it represents, struggles to read Russia’s political character and intent and size its military posture accordingly. NATO’s political deficit effectively robs it of a middle ground from where it can build its military posture and invest in its upkeep. In the 1960s, NATO forged such a middle ground as an essential platform for strategic adaptation; today, NATO’s full deterrence posture is suffering from the absence of such a middle ground. Thus, a comprehensive politico-military posture of deterrence vis-à-vis Russia will require NATO’s reengagement with its own political fundamentals.

AbstractJapan has consistently adopted a deterrence-by-denial strategy in the post-war period. Its ability to deter foreign attacks depends more heavily on its ability to deny hostility than to punish perpetrators. Japan’s deterrence-by-denial posture has faced at least two major problems. One problem is the inherent limit on its ability to deter foreign attacks. This posture is more oriented toward defence-by-denial than real deterrence. Japan’s national security resources and institutions are positioned to deny hostility to defend the homeland, but they are not suited to deter foreign attackers because Japan bans itself from having the ability to conduct offensive military operations—a necessary factor for deterrence by the imposition of threats. Existing restrictions on the use and threat of force stem from post-war constitutional and normative constraints that have proven anachronistic today.

AbstractUniversity students spend most of their time in a sitting position. Prolonged sitting on ill-fitted furniture and the resulting lousy posture is making students having different musculoskeletal disorders and is strictly related to students learning outcomes. This study aims to improve postural comfort of chairs placed inside the Science & Technology Library at the University of Salerno. A previous study about these library chairs showed that the lumbar area was the most suffering part while perceived (dis)comfort was dependent on time. Based on this, an ergonomic redesign and, consequently, manufacturing of the chair has been done. A perceived-comfort comparison between the library chair and the redesigned one has been performed. A statistical sample of 28 healthy students performed a 20-min experiment two times, alternatively on the library chair and the redesigned one. The 20-min experiment was divided into two 10-min tasks (“Reading & Writing” and “Laptop use”) to simulate a study day. The participants’ postures were acquired non-invasively using cameras and processed by Kinovea; questionnaires were used to rate the perceived subjective (dis)comfort. A procedure for improving an existing product through a comfort-driven redesign is proposed. Results showed the redesigned library chair lead on increasing postural comfort (particularly in the lumbar area) thanks to the new design and modifications.

Many of the tasks presented to people in everyday life include standing on terrain that is not level or coplanar. Uneven terrain can affect the way in which people distribute their weight between their feet. This paper proposes a method for predicting human standing posture and the associated ground reaction forces (GRFs) taking into account a generic orientation of the ground support plane. Postures are predicted using multi-objective optimization (MOO) techniques and a 55 DOF digital human model. The human performance measures used in the cost function include musculoskeletal discomfort, delta potential energy, and visual displacement. The GRF are determined by a linear distribution model derived from the zero moment point (ZMP) and the Lagrangian recursive dynamic formulation. Postural stability based on the location of the ZMP will be discussed. Three postural cases are considered: standing on flat ground, standing with one foot on a stair, and standing with arbitrary support plane angles. Three different simulations are carried out for each case representing different tasks. Predicted GRFs have realistic values and follow the general trends expected for each of the postural cases.

The present study implemented the MADYMO 50th percentile male head-neck model to investigate effects of initial spinal posture on cervical spine kinematics in whiplash. The model was altered to three initial postures: lordosis, straight, kyphosis. The three models were exercised under 2.6 m/sec rear impact pulses. Segmental kinematics and ligament strains were investigated during cervical S-curvature and throughout the whiplash event. Anterior longitudinal ligament strains during S-curvature varied from 20 to 47% of maximum strains. Facet joint strains during S-curvature were 42 to 100% of maximum strains. This finding indicates that facet joint ligaments are more susceptible to whiplash injury during S-curvature, while anterior longitudinal ligament injury likely occurs during the extension phase. Kyphosis and straight postures increased anterior longitudinal ligament strains in the upper cervical spine from the lordosis posture. Lower cervical facet joint and anterior longitudinal ligament strains were greater in the lordosis posture. This study shows that spinal posture may affect injury mechanisms and render a specific population more susceptible to whiplash injury.

Abstract The aerodynamic drag force has a relevant effect on cycling performance since it is one of the major resistive forces acting on the bicycle. For this reason, this paper presents the development of an experimental methodology to estimate the aerodynamic parameters of a bicycle-cyclist set. The methodology combines outdoor measurements to estimate the drag area with indoor measurements to measure the projected frontal area. The methodology was implemented to quantify the effect of posture in the aerodynamic parameters of a group of cyclists. The tests were performed to characterize the drag parameters associated with three postures defined by the position of the grip on the handlebar: tops, hoods, and drops. Significant differences in the aerodynamic parameters were found for the postures studied through the proposed methodology. The posture variation led to reductions of up to 11.8% in the drag area of the cyclists when passing from tops to drops posture. The results obtained are in agreement with the literature indicating that the implementation of the methodology is feasible for the estimation of the aerodynamic parameters in cycling.

Abstract Cyclists are exposed to vibration due to road roughness. The levels of vibration that the cyclists experience have a major effect on comfort and depend on the bicycle, rider and road characteristics. It is known that the posture of the cyclist has a relevant effect on the bicycle-cyclist system vibration response. Nevertheless, this effect has been scarcely quantified. This study focuses on the measurement of the effect of body posture on comfort while riding a bicycle. A laboratory methodology based on the measurement of the impulsive response of sensitive points of the bicycle was implemented to predict the comfort of cyclists on the road. The posture on the sagittal plane was verified during the tests. The methodology was implemented to predict the comfort of two cyclists riding a city bicycle in two postures: upright and bent forward. Experimental results showed that in the bent forward posture the acceleration levels had a significant increment for the handlebar stem and a non-significant increment for the seatpost.

Abstract Pedestrians are one of the most vulnerable road users. In 2018 the USA reported the highest number of pedestrian fatalities number in nearly three decades. Government safety agencies and car manufacturers have started paying greater attention towards pedestrian protection. The pre-impact conditions of Car-to-Pedestrian Collisions (CPC) varies significantly in terms of the characteristics of vehicles (e.g. front-end geometry, stiffness, etc.) and pedestrians (e.g. anthropometry, posture, etc.). The influence of vehicle type and pedestrian gait has not been analyzed. The purpose of this study was to numerically investigate the changes in pedestrian kinematics and injuries across various gait postures and two different car types. Five finite element (FE) human body models, representing 50th percentile male in gait cycle, were developed and used to perform CPC simulations with two generic vehicle FE models representing a family car (FCR), and a sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the impacts with the high-profile vehicle (SUV), the pedestrian models usually slide above the bonnet leading edge and report shorter wrap around distances (WAD) than in low-profile vehicle (FCR) impacts. The pedestrian postures influenced the post-impact rotation of the pedestrian and consequently, the impacted head region. The pedestrian posture also influenced the risk of injuries in the lower extremities. Higher risk of bone fractures was observed in the stance phase posture compared to the swing phase. The findings of this study should be taken into consideration when examining pedestrian protection protocols. In addition, the results of this study can be used to improve the design of active safety systems used to protect pedestrians in collisions.

In an effort to expand the understanding of head and neck injury dynamics in rollover type crashes, this investigation explores the influence of lateral bending postures and asymmetric compressive loads on the head and cervical spine. Drop testing of five male cadaver head-neck complexes was conducted with either an initial lateral bending posture onto a horizontal impact surface or with an initial neutral posture onto an obliquely oriented surface resulting in lateral bending. Five specimens were dropped from 0.45 and 0.53 m, with resulting impact speeds ranging from 2.9 to 3.25 m/s. Radiography of the specimens was performed pre- and post-testing to document any fractures. Three of the five specimens sustained compressive cervical vertebral fractures at lower neck loads ranging between 1518 N and 3472 N. Fracture patterns did suggest that the asymmetric postures and loading resulted in asymmetric fracture patterns. Overall compressive neck injury dynamics and tolerances appear similar to previous studies of purely sagittal plane dynamics based on these initial results. This study lays a foundation for quantifying the non-sagittal plane compressive response and tolerance of the cervical spine.

The use of realistic anatomic human carotid artery bifurcation (CB) models with a realistic blood waveform leads to physiologically relevant numerical simulations. To study the effects of head posture on the geometry and hemodynamics of the CB, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was used on six healthy volunteers in two different head postures: 1) the supine neutral (N) and 2) the prone with rightward head rotation (P) up to 80°. Geometric differences with posture change in both the left (LCA) and right (RCA) carotid arteries were reported before [1]. The blood velocity waveform for each individual was obtained using phase-contrast MRI (PCMRI) at five diameters upstream of CB. Results have shown that peak systolic blood flow rate is reduced, in the prone position for both RCA and LCA in all six volunteers. To investigate the effects of the reduced peak systolic flow on the hemodynamics of the CB, numerical simulations were performed for a volunteer that exhibited the most geometric changes for the prone position in comparison to the other five based on specific geometric parameters [1, 2]. For the two investigated head postures the observed measured input waveforms were used.

Recent reports have stressed the importance of studying the morphology and hemodynamic changes of peripheral arteries in parts of the body that experience motion and posture change and their relationship to the hemodynamic hypothesis of atherosclerosis development [1, 2]. The carotid arteries may fall into this category since their geometric morphology and hemodyamic conditions may change due to head and neck posture changes. Such changes may alter the hemodynamic variables that are generally associated with the development of atherosclerosis, such as low and oscillating wall shear stress (WSS) and particle residence times. In this study, the carotid bifurcation of a healthy volunteer was imaged in the neutral position and in 3 different posture positions: a) flexion sideways to the right 80°, b) flexion upwards 45°, and c) flexion downwards 45° (Fig. 1). Anatomic and quantitative flow MR data were used to develop computational models to investigate the effect of different postures on arterial geometry and hemodynamic characteristics.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of body posture on comfort during road cycling by implementing procedures that require only basic instrumentation. Static comfort and dynamic comfort were studied through experimental and computational approaches, respectively. For the experimental approach, subjective rating scales and an objective index proposed by the authors were used to assess static comfort. For the computational approach, a lumped-mass model with four degrees of freedom was implemented to compute the vertical acceleration of the bicycle and cyclist. The vertical acceleration was used to evaluate dynamic comfort according to ISO 2631. Body posture was determined from the handlebar-hands contact point and quantified in terms of the location of its center of mass and the location of the hands-handlebar contact point. Five postures were considered in the study. For static comfort, correlation indexes of 0.941 and −0.913 were found between the cyclist’s center of mass location and the hands and buttocks static comfort, respectively. For dynamic comfort, a correlation index of −0.992 was found between dynamic comfort and the hands-handlebar contact point location. The results suggest correlations between the body posture and static and dynamic comfort.

From January 22 to 25, 2018, RTI International, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) and the Forensic Technology Center of Excellence (FTCoE) held the 2018 Impression, Pattern and Trace Evidence Symposium (IPTES) in Arlington, VA, to promote collaboration, enhance knowledge transfer, and share best practices and policies for the impression, pattern, and trace evidence forensic science communities. NIJ and FTCoE are committed to improving the practice of forensic science and strengthening its impact through support of research and development, rigorous technology evaluation and adoption, effective knowledge transfer and education, and comprehensive dissemination of best practices and guidelines to agencies dedicated to combating crime. The future of forensic sciences and its contribution to the public and criminal justice community is a motivating topic to gather expertise in a forum to discuss, learn, and share ideas. It’s about becoming part of an essential and historic movement as the forensic sciences continue to advance. The IPTES was specifically designed to bring together practitioners and researchers to enhance information-sharing and promote collaboration among the impression, pattern, and trace evidence analysts, law enforcement, and legal communities. The IPTES was designed to bring together practitioners and researchers to enhance information sharing and promote collaboration among impression, pattern, and trace evidence analysts, law enforcement, and legal communities. This set of proceedings comprises abstracts from workshops, general sessions, breakout sessions, and poster presentations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.