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1
Kourd, Yahia, Dimitri Lefebvre, and Noureddine Guersi. "Neural Networks and Fault Probability Evaluation for Diagnosis Issues." Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience 2014 (2014): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/370486.
Анотація:
This paper presents a new FDI technique for fault detection and isolation in unknown nonlinear systems. The objective of the research is to construct and analyze residuals by means of artificial intelligence and probabilistic methods. Artificial neural networks are first used for modeling issues. Neural networks models are designed for learning the fault-free and the faulty behaviors of the considered systems. Once the residuals generated, an evaluation using probabilistic criteria is applied to them to determine what is the most likely fault among a set of candidate faults. The study also includes a comparison between the contributions of these tools and their limitations, particularly through the establishment of quantitative indicators to assess their performance. According to the computation of a confidence factor, the proposed method is suitable to evaluate the reliability of the FDI decision. The approach is applied to detect and isolate 19 fault candidates in the DAMADICS benchmark. The results obtained with the proposed scheme are compared with the results obtained according to a usual thresholding method.
2
Eslami, R., S. H. H. Sadeghi, and H. Askarian Abyaneh. "A Probabilistic Approach for the Evaluation of Fault Detection Schemes in Microgrids." Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research 7, no. 5 (October 19, 2017): 1967–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.48084/etasr.1472.
Анотація:
An important challenge in protection of a microgrid is the process of fault detection, considering the uncertainties in its topologies. Equally important is the evaluation of proposed methods as their incorrect performances could result in unreasonable power outages. In this paper, a new fault detection and characterization method is introduced and evaluated subject to the uncertainties of network topologies. The features of three-phase components together with the positive, negative and zero sequences of current and voltage waveforms are derived to detect the occurrence of a fault, its location, type and the engaged phases. The proposed method is independent of the microgrid topology. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method in various network topologies, a Monte Carlo scheme is developed. This is done by computing the expected energy not-supplied reliability index and the percentage of successful performance of the fault detection. Simulation results show that the proposed method can detect faults in various microgrid topologies with a very high degree of accuracy.
3
Gnanavel, S., M. Sreekrishna, Vinodhini Mani, G. Kumaran, R. S. Amshavalli, Sadeen Alharbi, Mashael Maashi, et al. "Analysis of Fault Classifiers to Detect the Faults and Node Failures in a Wireless Sensor Network." Electronics 11, no. 10 (May 18, 2022): 1609. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics11101609.
Анотація:
Technology evaluation in the electronics field leads to the great development of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) for a variety of applications. The sensor nodes are deployed in hazardous environments, and they are operated by isolated battery sources. Network connectivity is purely based on power availability, which impacts the network lifetime. Hence, power must be used wisely to prolong the network lifetime. The sensor nodes that fail due to power have to detect quickly to maintain the network. In a WSN, classifiers are used to detect the faults for checking the data generated by the sensor nodes. In this paper, six classifiers such as Support Vector Machine, Convolutional Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Stochastic Gradient Descent, Random Forest and Probabilistic Neural Network have been taken for analysis. Six different faults (Offset fault, Gain fault, Stuck-at fault, Out of Bounds, Spike fault and Data loss) are injected in the data generated by the sensor nodes. The faulty data are checked by the classifiers. The simulation results show that the Random Forest detected more faults and it also outperformed all other classifiers in that category.
4
Goda, Katsuichiro. "Potential Fault Displacement Hazard Assessment Using Stochastic Source Models: A Retrospective Evaluation for the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake." GeoHazards 2, no. 4 (December 4, 2021): 398–414. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geohazards2040022.
Анотація:
Surface fault displacement due to an earthquake affects buildings and infrastructure in the near-fault area significantly. Although approaches for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis have been developed and applied in practice, there are several limitations that prevent fault displacement hazard assessments for multiple locations simultaneously in a physically consistent manner. This study proposes an alternative approach that is based on stochastic source modelling and fault displacement analysis using Okada equations. The proposed method evaluates the fault displacement hazard potential due to a fault rupture. The developed method is applied to the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake from a retrospective perspective. The stochastic-source-based fault displacement hazard analysis method successfully identifies multiple source models that predict fault displacements in close agreement with observed GPS displacement vectors and displacement offsets along the fault trace. The case study for the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake demonstrates that the proposed stochastic-source-based method is a viable option in conducting probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis.
5
Feng, Zhi Gang, Qi Wang, and K. Shida. "Validated Uncertainty Evaluation for Self-Validating Sensor." Key Engineering Materials 381-382 (June 2008): 419–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.381-382.419.
Анотація:
This paper evaluates the validated uncertainty in SEVA sensor by integrating fault detection, identification and reconstruction (FDIR) and reliability engineering. The impact of each fault mode on measurement quality is evaluated quantitatively by using a priori sensor reliability information to investigate the impact of incomplete fault coverage, FDIR and manual maintenance intervention. Bayesian probabilistic approach and uncertainty calculus are employed to model the impact of sensor validation on parameter uncertainty and to fuse the individual modes into a complete sensor model. A simulation of SEVA pressure sensor example illustrates the concept and conclusions.
6
Khan, Faisal I., and Tahir Husain. "Risk Assessment and Safety Evaluation Using Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 7, no. 7 (December 2001): 1909–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20018091095483.
7
Nair, V. S. S., Y. V. Hoskote, and J. A. Abraham. "Probabilistic evaluation of online checks in fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems." IEEE Transactions on Computers 41, no. 5 (May 1992): 532–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/12.142679.
8
Inoue, Naoto, Naoko Kitada, Noriyuki Shibuya, Masashi Omata, Tsutomu Takahama, Masao Tonagi, and Kojiro Irikura. "Probabilistic Evaluation of Off-Fault Displacements of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 177, no. 5 (October 18, 2019): 2007–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02345-7.
9
Katona, Tamás János, László Tóth, and Erzsébet Győri. "Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis Based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Specific Nuclear Sites." Applied Sciences 11, no. 15 (August 3, 2021): 7162. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11157162.
Анотація:
Permanent ground displacements/deformations caused by earthquakes can seriously challenge the safety of the nuclear power plants. The state-of-the-art hazard analysis methods provide a fault displacement hazard curve, i.e., the annual probability of given measure of displacement will be exceeded. The evaluation of ground displacement hazard requires great effort, empirical evidence, and sufficient data for the characterization of the fault activity and capability to cause permanent surface displacement. There are practical cases when the fault at the site area revealed to be active, and, despite this, there are no sufficient data for the evaluation of permanent ground displacements hazard and for judging on the safety significance of permanent ground displacement. For these cases, a methodology is proposed that is based on the seismotectonic modelling and results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The method provides conservative assessment of the annual probability of fault displacement that allows the decision whether permanent displacement hazard is relevant to nuclear power plant safety. The feasibility and applicability of the method is demonstrated for the Paks site, Hungary.
10
FENG, Yunwen, Zhicen SONG, Cheng LU, and Xiaofei LIU. "Analysis of comprehensive sensitivity evaluation of aircraft system based on FTA-AHP." Xibei Gongye Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University 39, no. 5 (October 2021): 971–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/jnwpu/20213950971.
Анотація:
Aiming at the lack of unified evaluation index for the sensitivity analysis of fault tree of the system, the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) is introduced into Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), and an FTA-AHP method is proposed to generate the comprehensive sensitivity evaluation index of the system. Firstly, the reliability analysis model of the system fault tree is established, and three indexes including probabilistic sensitivity, relative sensitivity and structural sensitivity, are calculated by using the traditional sensitivity analysis method. Then, combined with the analytic hierarchy process, the weight coefficients were determined according to the sensitivity analysis results above and the type of the minimum cut set, and the comprehensive sensitivity evaluation and analysis of the system fault tree were carried out. Finally, the case verification shows that compared with the traditional method, the comprehensive sensitivity ranking results have less repeatability, and the factors are considered comprehensively, which is convenient for decision makers to make judgment. The synthetic sensitivity evaluation model developed provides support for system reliability analysis.
11
Nawaz, Ayla, Christian Herzog né Hoffmann, Jan Graßhoff, Sven Pfeiffer, Gerwald Lichtenberg, and Philipp Rostalski. "Probabilistic model-based fault diagnosis for the cavities of the European XFEL." at - Automatisierungstechnik 69, no. 6 (May 27, 2021): 538–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/auto-2020-0064.
Анотація:
Abstract The European X-ray Free Electron Laser (EuXFEL) is a complex system with many interconnected components and sensor measurements. We use factor graphs to systematically design a probabilistic fault diagnosis method for its cavity system. This approach is expandable to further subsystems and considers uncertainties from measurements and modeling. After representing a model of the cavity system in the factor graph framework, we infer marginal distributions, e. g., of the fault classes using tabulated message-passing definitions. The emerging fault diagnosis method consists of an unscented Kalman filter-based residual generator and an evaluation of the residuals using a Gaussian mixture model. We include message-passing definitions for the training of the Gaussian Mixture Model from noisy data using the expectation-maximization algorithm.
12
LI, Hongbin, Qing Zhao, and Zhenyu Yang. "Reliability Modeling of Fault Tolerant Control Systems." International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science 17, no. 4 (December 1, 2007): 491–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10006-007-0041-0.
Анотація:
Reliability Modeling of Fault Tolerant Control SystemsThis paper proposes a novel approach to reliability evaluation for active Fault Tolerant Control Systems (FTCSs). By introducing a reliability index based on the control performance and hard deadline, a semi-Markov process model is proposed to describe system operation for reliability evaluation. The degraded performance of FTCSs in the presence of imperfect Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) is reflected by semi-Markov states. The semi-Markov kernel, the key parameter of the process, is determined by four probabilistic parameters based on the Markovian model of FTCSs. Computed from the transition probabilities of the semi-Markov process, the reliability index incorporates control objectives, hard deadline, and the effects of imperfect FDI, a suitable quantitative measure of the overall performance.
13
Zheng, Qian, Xiaoben Liu, Hong Zhang, Xiaoting Gu, Maoli Fang, Liang Wang, and Samer Adeeb. "Reliability evaluation method for pipes buried in fault areas based on the probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis." Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 85 (January 2021): 103698. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2020.103698.
14
Şeşetyan, Tümsa, and Akinci. "Evaluation of The Seismic Hazard in The Marmara Region (Turkey) Based on Updated Databases." Geosciences 9, no. 12 (November 20, 2019): 489. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9120489.
Анотація:
The increase in the wealth of information on the seismotectonic structure of the Marmara region after two devastating earthquakes (M7.6 Izmit and M7.2 Duzce events) in the year 1999 opened the way for the reassessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard in the light of new datasets. In this connection, the most recent findings and outputs of different national and international projects concerning seismicity and fault characterization in terms of geometric and kinematic properties are exploited in the present study to build an updated seismic hazard model. A revised fault segmentation model, alternative earthquake rupture models under a Poisson and renewal assumptions, as well as recently derived global and regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are put together in the present model to assess the seismic hazard in the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is conducted based on characteristic earthquake modelling for the fault segments capable of producing large earthquakes and smoothed seismicity modelling for the background smaller magnitude earthquake activity. The time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard results in terms of spatial distributions of three ground-shaking intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) on rock having 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years) as well as the corresponding hazard curves for selected cities are shown and compared with previous studies.
15
Ornthammarath, Teraphan, Pennung Warnitchai, Chung-Han Chan, Yu Wang, Xuhua Shi, Phuong Hong Nguyen, Le Minh Nguyen, Suwith Kosuwan, and Myo Thant. "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Northern Southeast Asia (Indochina): Smooth seismicity approach." Earthquake Spectra 36, no. 1_suppl (July 24, 2020): 69–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/8755293020942528.
Анотація:
We present an evaluation of the 2018 Northern Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Model (NSAHM18) based on a combination of smoothed seismicity, subduction zone, and fault models. The smoothed seismicity is used to model observed distributed seismicity from largely unknown sources in the current study area. In addition, due to a short instrumental earthquake catalog, slip rate and characteristic earthquake magnitudes are incorporated through the fault model. To achieve this objective, the compiled earthquake catalogs and updated active fault databases in this region were reexamined with consistent use of these input parameters. To take into account epistemic uncertainty, logic tree analysis has been implemented incorporating basic quantities such as ground-motion models (GMMs) for three different tectonic regions (shallow active, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab), maximum magnitude, and earthquake magnitude frequency relationships. The seismic hazard results are presented in peak ground acceleration maps at 475- and 2475-year return periods.
16
Faried, S. O., and M. Elsamahy. "Incorporating superconducting fault current limiters in the probabilistic evaluation of transient recovery voltage." IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution 5, no. 1 (2011): 101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/iet-gtd.2010.0312.
17
Jin, Song, Hua Rong, and Xuetao Lyu. "Probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of nuclear containment structure subjected to far-fault ground motions." Structures 32 (August 2021): 2232–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2021.04.013.
18
FERNÁNDEZ, JOQUÍN L., RAFAEL SANZ, and AMADOR R. DIÉGUEZ. "PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR MONITORING AND FAULT DIAGNOSIS: APPLICATION AND EVALUATION IN A MOBILE ROBOT." Applied Artificial Intelligence 18, no. 1 (January 2004): 43–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08839510490250097.
19
Katona, Tamás János. "Safety of Nuclear Power Plants with Respect to the Fault Displacement Hazard." Applied Sciences 10, no. 10 (May 23, 2020): 3624. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10103624.
Анотація:
The hazard of permanent ground displacements/deformations can challenge the safety of the nuclear power plants. Increasing knowledge of the hazard and development of methods for structure–fault–displacement interaction motivates the designing of nuclear power plants for permanent ground displacement instead of abandoning the sites that could be affected by this kind of hazard. For the design basis, permanent ground displacement should be defined at the hazard level that complies with the probabilistic criteria for accounting for the natural hazards in the design that also ensure compliance with probabilistic safety criteria. In this paper, a procedure is proposed for the definition of the design basis permanent ground displacement that is based on the deaggregation of seismic design basis hazard. The definition of the displacement for the margin evaluation is also proposed. The feasibility of safe design is also demonstrated for the proposed definition of design basis hazard via qualitative judgement on the sensitivity of the structures, systems and components ensuring the fundamental safety functions with respect to the permanent ground displacement that is supported by existing case studies.
20
Evdokimov, Sergey A., Olga I. Karandaeva, and Yulia N. Kondrashova. "Calculation Methodology Determining Reliability of the Thermal Power Station Electrical Facilities." Applied Mechanics and Materials 698 (December 2014): 796–802. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.698.796.
Анотація:
It is noticed that introduction of frequency convertors has an adverse effect on the reliability indexes of the critical equipment of the thermal power station. The paper considers the method for calculation reliability based on the logical-and-probabilistic method with the following expert estimation of the entity technical state. Examples of the developed structural models of the power station’s reliability and its separate units as fault trees are provided. Based on the results of expert evaluation of the equipment fault occurrence intervals before and after introduction of the frequency convertors, average times to failure have been calculated. The paper also gives recommendations for providing reliability of the essential auxiliaries’ electric drives at the introduction of the frequency convertors.
21
Paradisopoulou, P. M., E. E. Papadimitriou, and J. Mirek. "SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES NEAR THE CITY OF THESSALONIKI (NORTHERN GREECE) AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON FAULTS." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 50, no. 3 (July 27, 2017): 1389. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11852.
Анотація:
Stress triggering must be incorporated into quantitative earthquake probability estimate, given that faults are interacted though their stress field. Using time dependent probability estimates this work aims at the evaluation of the occurrence probability of anticipated earthquakes near the city of Thessaloniki, an urban center of 1 million people located in northern Greece, conditional to the time elapsed since the last stronger event on each fault segment of the study area. A method that calculates the macroseismic epicenter and magnitude according to macroseismic intensities is used to improve the existing earthquake catalog (from AD 1600 - 2013 with M≥6.0) in order to compute new interevent and elapsed time values which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. To investigate the effects of stress transfer to seismic hazard, the probabilistic calculations presented here employ detailed models of coseismic stress associated with the 20 June 1978 M=6.5 Thessaloniki which is the latest destructive earthquake in the area in the instrumental era. The combined 2015-2045 regional Poisson probability of M≥6.0 earthquakes is ~35% the regional time-dependent probability varies from 0% to 15% and incorporation of stress transfer from 0% to 20% for each fault segment.
22
Li, Wenshan, Yong Huang, and Zikai Xie. "Machine Learning-Based Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model of Continuous Girder Bridges." Advances in Civil Engineering 2022 (February 3, 2022): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/3867782.
Анотація:
Probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) is one of the critical components of performance-based earthquake engineering frameworks. The aim of this study is to propose a procedure to generate PSDMs for a typical regular continuous-girder bridge subjected to far and near-fault ground motions (GMs) utilizing machine-learning methods. A series of nonlinear time history analyses (NTHAs) is carried out to calculate the damage caused by the far and near-fault GMs for four different site conditions, and 21 seismic intensity measures (IMs) are considered. Subsequently, PSDMs are established for the IMs and engineering demand parameters based on the existing NTHA data using machine-learning methods, which include linear regression, Bayesian regression (BR), and a tree-based model. The results indicated that random forest (RF) is the most suitable model to predict the longitudinal and transverse curvature at the bottom of the four piers from the coefficients of determination. More specifically, the relative importance of each parameter in the model is evaluated, and peak ground velocity (PGV), peak spectral velocity (PSV), Arias intensity (AI), and Fajfar intensity (FI) are found to be the critical factors for the RF-based PSDM. Finally, all of these parameters, except AI, are correlated with velocity. The research results explore a new method for establishing the seismic demand model of continuous-girder bridges, which can provide suggestions for seismic damage prediction and seismic insurance risk evaluation.
23
Zhu, Yu-Jie, Wei Guo, and Hu-Chen Liu. "Knowledge Representation and Reasoning with an Extended Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph under the Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Environment." Applied Sciences 12, no. 9 (May 6, 2022): 4670. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12094670.
Анотація:
A dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a probabilistic graphical model for knowledge representation and reasoning, which has been widely used in many areas, such as probabilistic safety assessment, medical diagnosis, and fault diagnosis. However, the convention DUCG model fails to model experts’ knowledge precisely because knowledge parameters were crisp numbers or fuzzy numbers. In reality, domain experts tend to use linguistic terms to express their judgements due to professional limitations and information deficiency. To overcome the shortcomings of DUCGs, this article proposes a new type of DUCG model by integrating Pythagorean uncertain linguistic sets (PULSs) and the evaluation based on the distance from average solution (EDAS) method. In particular, experts express knowledge parameters in the form of the PULSs, which can depict the uncertainty and vagueness of expert knowledge. Furthermore, this model gathers the evaluations of experts on knowledge parameters and handles conflicting opinions among them. Moreover, a reasoning algorithm based on the EDAS method is proposed to improve the reliability and intelligence of expert systems. Lastly, an industrial example concerning the root cause analysis of abnormal aluminum electrolysis cell condition is provided to demonstrate the proposed DUCG model.
24
Cox, Daniel T., Hyoungsu Park, Mohammed S. Alam, and Andre R. Barbosa. "PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND DAMAGE ESTIMATION OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT: APPLICATION TO THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE AND SEASIDE, OREGON." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.94.
Анотація:
Risk-based damage estimation to the built environment from future tsunamis is fundamental for developing mitigation and evacuation plans. One of the challenging problems in the evaluation of damage from future tsunamis is that the uncertainty from the nature of tsunami itself (e.g. Magnitude, Epicenter, Fault slip distributions) and the lack of accumulated sufficient observed data for probabilistic studies due to the relatively small frequency of tsunami historical events. Even though tsunami modeling has matured over the past several decades and provides reliable estimation of tsunami hazards such as flow depth, velocity, arrival time, etc., questions remain on how to predict future tsunami hazards and how to estimate tsunami damage, especially for the engineers who want to design shelter-in-plate options or coastal planners who want to estimate the possible damage from future tsunami events on the built environment at community and regional scales. As a case study, we evaluate the probabilistic damage states of an urban coastal city, Seaside, Oregon from future tsunamis generated on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). The methodology and the results are separated into two parts: (1) Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (Park et al., 2017) and (2) Probabilistic building damage assessment from the tsunamis hazards with a community scale.
25
Zhao, Peng, and Yongming Liu. "Separation Risk Evaluation Considering Positioning Uncertainties from the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) System." Journal of Navigation 72, no. 5 (May 2, 2019): 1179–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0373463319000195.
Анотація:
A probabilistic methodology for separation loss probability assessments is proposed in this paper. The key focus is on the effect of uncertainties from multiple Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) systems on the separation loss probability assessment. First, a brief review of the ADS-B system and its associated uncertainty quantification metrics is discussed. It is found that most existing studies focus on the individual ADS-B uncertainty quantification for a single aircraft, which is not sufficient for separation loss probability assessment when two or more aircraft are involved. Next, a probabilistic positioning model with multiple aircraft is proposed and various types of uncertainties are included in the proposed model. Numerical simulations show that a navigation satellite fault can significantly affect separation error when individual aircraft see different satellite sets. Following this, several demonstration examples are illustrated to show the bounds for separation loss probability estimation. Finally, several conclusions and suggestions are discussed based on this study. One major finding is that the separation risk significantly increases when two nearby aircraft use different satellite sets to navigate. Real-time assessment of this risk should be performed.
26
Kaviris, George, Angelos Zymvragakis, Pavlos Bonatis, Vasilis Kapetanidis, and Nicholas Voulgaris. "Probabilistic and Scenario-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment on the Western Gulf of Corinth (Central Greece)." Applied Sciences 12, no. 21 (November 3, 2022): 11152. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app122111152.
Анотація:
The Gulf of Corinth (Central Greece) is one of the most rapidly extending rifts worldwide, with its western part being the most seismically active, hosting numerous strong (M ≥ 6.0) earthquakes that have caused significant damage. The main objective of this study was the evaluation of seismic hazard through a probabilistic and stochastic methodology. The implementation of three seismotectonic models in the form of area source zones via a logic tree framework revealed the expected level of peak ground acceleration and velocity for return periods of 475 and 950 years. Moreover, PGA values were obtained through the stochastic simulation of strong ground motion by adopting worst-case seismic scenarios of potential earthquake occurrences for known active faults in the area. Site-specific analysis of the most populated urban areas (Patras, Aigion, Nafpaktos) was performed by constructing uniform hazard spectra in terms of spectral acceleration. The relative contribution of each selected fault segment to the seismic hazard characterizing each site was evaluated through response spectra obtained for the adopted scenarios. Almost all parts of the study area were found to exceed the reference value proposed by the current Greek National Building Code; however, the three urban areas are covered by the Eurocode 8 regulations.
27
Terrier-Sedan, Monique, and Didier Bertil. "Active fault characterization and seismotectonic zoning of the Hispaniola island." Journal of Seismology 25, no. 2 (February 18, 2021): 499–520. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10950-021-09985-0.
Анотація:
AbstractDesigning a seismic source model based on the most complete description of potentially active faults and on the kinematics of their latest movements is an essential requirement in seismic hazard studies, at regional and local scales. A study to characterize active faults in the Hispaniola island (today’s Haiti and Dominican Republic) has been conducted in the framework of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Santo Domingo (capital of the Dominican Republic). In this work, we present a seismotectonic map of Hispaniola and its surroundings, based on a compilation and synthesis of geological, geophysical, geodetic and seismological data. Based on these data, distinct seismic zone sources are proposed and classified as either intercrustal domains, major active faults or subduction zones. Each seismic source is described according to several parameters, including its mechanism and current rate of deformation, the associated seismicity and its estimated maximal magnitude. These results constitute an essential database for a homogeneous evaluation of the seismic hazards of Hispaniola.
28
Nazarnezhad, Taha, and Hosein Naderpour. "Probabilistic damage evaluation of base-isolated reinforced concrete structures under near-fault pulse-like bidirectional seismic excitations." Structures 32 (August 2021): 1156–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2021.02.025.
29
Qian, Shuaiwei, Lu Wang, Jianxi Chen, Yanjun Peng, Ningbo Pan, Yongqiang Huang, and Xiong Zhou. "Research on Fault Location of SF6 Circuit Breaker Relay Coil Based on Traveling-Wave Reflection Method." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2246, no. 1 (April 1, 2022): 012059. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2246/1/012059.
Анотація:
Abstract —The traveling wave-reflection method is proposed to locate the short circuit fault of the opening/closing coil of the circuit breaker, the capacitance and inductance matrix of the opening/closing coil are calculated by finite element simulation, and the wave impedance model of the coil is established based on ATP-EMTP. A low-voltage square wave pulse signal is injected into the head end of the winding to detect the characteristic curve of the reflected wave when an inter-turn short-circuit fault occurs. The generalized fractal dimension of reflection wave characteristic curve was calculated and its variation as the position of short circuit change was analysed. Compared with box dimension, the variation of information dimension and correlation dimension are more obvious, thus information dimension and correlation dimension are selected as inpus, and the evaluation model of inter-turn short circuit position is established based on probabilistic neural network.
30
Shao, Songtao, and Xiaohong Zhang. "Measures of Probabilistic Neutrosophic Hesitant Fuzzy Sets and the Application in Reducing Unnecessary Evaluation Processes." Mathematics 7, no. 7 (July 19, 2019): 649. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math7070649.
Анотація:
Distance measure and similarity measure have been applied to various multi-criteria decision-making environments, like talent selections, fault diagnoses and so on. Some improved distance and similarity measures have been proposed by some researchers. However, hesitancy is reflected in all aspects of life, thus the hesitant information needs to be considered in measures. Then, it can effectively avoid the loss of fuzzy information. However, regarding fuzzy information, it only reflects the subjective factor. Obviously, this is a shortcoming that will result in an inaccurate decision conclusion. Thus, based on the definition of a probabilistic neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set (PNHFS), as an extended theory of fuzzy set, the basic definition of distance, similarity and entropy measures of PNHFS are established. Next, the interconnection among the distance, similarity and entropy measures are studied. Simultaneously, a novel measure model is established based on the PNHFSs. In addition, the new measure model is compared by some existed measures. Finally, we display their applicability concerning the investment problems, which can be utilized to avoid redundant evaluation processes.
31
Fukutani, Yo, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Takuma Kotani, Yu Otake, and Toshikazu Kitano. "Tsunami hazard and risk assessment for multiple buildings by considering the spatial correlation of wave height using copulas." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 11 (November 22, 2019): 2619–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2619-2019.
Анотація:
Abstract. It is necessary to evaluate aggregate damage probability to multiple buildings when performing probabilistic risk assessment for the buildings. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate a method of tsunami hazard and risk assessment for two buildings far away from each other, using copulas of tsunami hazards that consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of tsunami wave heights. First, we simulated the wave heights considering uncertainty by varying the slip amount and fault depths. The frequency distributions of the wave heights were evaluated via the response surface method. Based on the distributions and numerically simulated wave heights, we estimated the optimal copula via maximum likelihood estimation. Subsequently, we evaluated the joint distributions of the wave heights and the aggregate damage probabilities via the marginal distributions and the estimated copulas. As a result, the aggregate damage probability of the 99th percentile value was approximately 1.0 % higher and the maximum value was approximately 3.0 % higher while considering the wave height correlation. We clearly showed the usefulness of copula modeling considering the wave height correlation in evaluating the probabilistic risk of multiple buildings. We only demonstrated the risk evaluation method for two buildings, but the effect of the wave height correlation on the results is expected to increase if more points are targeted.
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Xu, Ji, Hong Zhou, and Yanjun Fang. "Intelligent Roller Bearing Fault Diagnosis in Industrial Internet of Things." Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing 2022 (March 30, 2022): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1860946.
Анотація:
Advanced research studies on industrial Internet of things require effective feature extraction and accurate machinery health state evaluation. For roller bearing, a well-known mechanical component most extensively used in the industry, its running status directly affects the operation of the entire machinery and equipment. For intelligent fault diagnosis of roller bearing, the selection of the intrinsic mode function (IMF) modes in approaches of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)/variational mode decomposition (VMD) becomes a tricky problem. To solve this problem, this study proposed an efficient scheme on roller bearing fault diagnosis that combines the refined composite multivariate multiscale sample entropy (RCMMSE) with different classifiers. Firstly, the synthetic noise signals are introduced to compare the effectiveness of the multiscale sample entropy (MSE) and the RCMMSE models. Secondly, the random noise signals are used to compare the performance of EEMD and VMD methods, where the envelope spectrum characteristics of fault signals are well described. Moreover, EEMD/VMD methods are utilized to decompose the roller bearing vibration signals into various modes to get the entropy values. Finally, the obtained RCMMSE is adopted as a feature vector and subsequently employed as an input of support vector machine, random forest, and probabilistic neural network models to conduct roller bearing fault identification. The extensive experimental results prove that this proposed scheme performs well and the classification accuracy of VMD-RCMMSE is higher than EEMD-RCMMSE.
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Zhang, Yanan. "Probabilistic Statistics-Based Endurance Life Prediction of Bridge Structures." Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience 2022 (June 15, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8035028.
Анотація:
With the massive construction of bridge infrastructures, bridge health monitoring systems have gradually matured in application and research, but previous research has primarily focused on structural damage detection and bridge safety warnings based on valid data. The structural details of steel bridge panels and structural systems are determined by the coupling effects of many intrinsic and extrinsic uncertainties, such as material properties, structural characteristics, manufacturing processes, and random traffic loads. The evaluation of fatigue is a difficult task. This article first builds a big data platform, utilizing its high-efficiency parallel computing capability and highly fault-tolerant distributed file system to achieve second-level monitoring data processing; ensuring real-time data cleaning, data analysis, and safety warning; and building a big data analysis and processing platform with high reliability, high availability, high storage efficiency, and high scalability of bridge health monitoring. The big data platform chooses HDFS for offline data storage and Spark for data analysis and modelling after comparing and analysing the benefits and drawbacks of various big data technologies. Kafka is used for caching real-time data, and Spark-streaming is used for reading data and real-time processing. Finally, the platform’s superiority and reliability in terms of offline computing performance, real-time online performance, scalability, and fault tolerance are confirmed through experimental analysis; the optimal data cleaning method is derived by comparing and analysing monitoring data noise, jump point, and drift phenomena. This part of the research is based on bridge temperature data with stable signals and bridge strain data with fluctuating signals, taking into account the influence of different data types; the corresponding data missing repair algorithms are proposed for different types of data to form a complete and general data patching method process. The probabilistic fracture mechanics theory, in comparison to the traditional deterministic fatigue assessment method, can better reflect the essential uncertainty of fatigue problems and is an effective way to assess the fatigue performance of orthotropic steel bridge decks. The goal of data patching is to ensure data recovery accuracy of over 90%, with no patching repair required for monitoring data with too much missing data. The endurance life of bridge structures is predicted using a big data probabilistic statistics approach based on a variety of factors such as material properties, construction characteristics, manufacturing processes, and random traffic loads.
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Vanneste, Kris, Katleen Wils, and Maarten Van Daele. "Probabilistic Evaluation of Fault Sources Based on Paleoseismic Evidence From Mass-Transport Deposits: The Example of Aysén Fjord, Chile." Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 123, no. 11 (November 2018): 9842–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018jb016289.
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Fu, Ming, Lifang Wang, Jiaming Zhu, and Bingyun Zheng. "Emergency Optimization Decision-Making with Incomplete Probabilistic Information under the Background of COVID-19." Complexity 2021 (July 22, 2021): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6658006.
Анотація:
At present, the whole world is facing the serious challenge of COVID-19, and it has reached a consensus that taking appropriate measures timely is the key to prevent and control infectious diseases. This paper proposes an algorithm to solve the problem of how to choose the most appropriate alternative from numerous alternatives in the limited time from the perspective of management. First of all, we have compared various data structures for keeping the comparison results of alternatives. After comparisons, we adopt the hesitant fuzzy incomplete probabilistic linguistic preference relation matrix to save the information which can keep the first-hand valuable collected data to the maximum extent; then, we can obtain the missing values with the help of the fault tree analysis method, which can consider both subjective evaluation data and objective historical data simultaneously. Meanwhile, the fault tree analysis method can find development laws with the help of similar infectious diseases that have occurred in the past. The definition of consistency index is also introduced which can measure whether there are contradictions and the degree of contradiction in the decision results. Only those data that meet the consistency requirements can be used for decision-making and then a method is proposed to effectively reduce the degree of inconsistency. The information aggregation method will be adopted subsequently, and we can obtain the ranking of alternatives. An instance with specific execution steps is also introduced to illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the algorithm proposed in this paper; in the end, several types of comparisons with typical algorithms proposed by other scholars are carried out, and all the experimental results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper is effective and innovative in some aspects.
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Somerville, Paul. "Seismic hazard evaluation." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 33, no. 3 (September 30, 2000): 371–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.33.3.371-386.
Анотація:
This paper reviews concepts and trends in seismic hazard characterization that have emerged in the past decade, and identifies trends and concepts that are anticipated during the coming decade. New methods have been developed for characterizing potential earthquake sources that use geological and geodetic data in conjunction with historical seismicity data. Scaling relationships among earthquake source parameters have been developed to provide a more detailed representation of the earthquake source for ground motion prediction. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude - distance - soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near- fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. The probabilistic approach to characterizing the ground motion that a given site will experience in the future is very compatible with current trends in earthquake engineering and the development of building codes. Performance based design requires a more comprehensive representation of ground motions than has conventionally been used. Ground motions estimates are needed at multiple annual probability levels, and may need to be specified not only by response spectra but also by suites of strong motion time histories for input into time-domain non-linear analyses of structures.
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Egorov, I. V. "Simulation model of dependability of redundant computer systems with recurrent information recovery." Dependability 18, no. 3 (September 5, 2018): 10–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2018-18-3-10-17.
Анотація:
Today’s digital nanotechnology-based information management systems are especially sensitive to highly-energized particles during operation in irradiated areas. This sensitivity is most often manifested in the form of intermittent soft errors, i.e. distortion of information bits in the system’s memory elements with no hardware failure. The cause is in the afterpulses at the output of the logical elements that occur as the result of ionization of the gate area of the transistor’s semiconductor after it is exposed to a highly-energized particle. In order to counter soft errors the system is equipped with self-repair mechanisms that ensure regular replacement of distorted data with correct data. If this approach to design is employed, the significance of dependability analysis of the system under development increases significantly. Since regular occurrence of soft errors is essentially normal operating mode of a system in conditions of increased radiation, dependability analysis must be repeatedly conducted at the design stage, as that is the only way to duly evaluate the quality of the taken design decisions. The distinctive feature of fault-tolerant hardware and software systems that consists in the presence of nonprobabilistic recovery process limits the applicability of the known methods of dependability analysis. It is difficult to formalize the behaviour of such systems in the form of a dependability model in the context of the classic dependability theory that is geared towards the evaluation of hardware structure. As it has been found out, the application of conventional methods of dependability analysis (such as the Markovian model or probabilistic logic) requires making a number of assumptions that result in unacceptable errors in the evaluation results or its inapplicability.Aim. Development of the model and methods of dependability analysis that would allow evaluating the dependability of hardware and software systems with periodic recovery.Results. A simulation model was developed that is intended for dependability evaluation of complex recoverable information management systems. The model is a network of oriented state graphs that allows describing the behaviour of a recoverable system subject to the presence of computation processes and recovery processes that operate according to non-stochastic algorithms. Based on the simulation model, a software tool for dependability analysis was developed that enables probabilistic estimation of dependability characteristics of individual system units and its overall structure by means of computer simulation of failures and recoveries. This tool can be used for comprehensive dependability evaluation of hardware and software systems that involves the analysis of recoverable units with complex behaviour using the developed simulation model, and their operation along with simple hardware components, such as power supplies and fuses, using conventional analytical methods of dependability analysis. Such approach to dependability evaluation is implemented in the Digitek Reliability Analyzer dependability analysis software environment.Practical significance.The application of the developed simulation model and dependability analysis tool at the design stage enables due evaluation of the quality of the produced fault tolerant recoverable system in terms of dependability and choose the best architectural solution, which has a high practical significance.
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Rashidi, Ahmad, and Reza Derakhshani. "Strain and Moment Rates from GPS and Seismological Data in Northern Iran: Implications for an Evaluation of Stress Trajectories and Probabilistic Fault Rupture Hazard." Remote Sensing 14, no. 9 (May 6, 2022): 2219. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14092219.
Анотація:
This study provides a multi-disciplinary overview of the seismology and geodetic data with tectonics analysis in order to provide an evaluation of stress trajectories, and probabilistic fault rupture hazard assessment. Based on the different scenarios obtained from the comparison of several overviews and their interpretation, we investigated the kinematics and active tectonics of different structural zones. In this study, the magnitudes and directions of seismic and geodetic strain rates (SSR and GSR) were evaluated using reliable earthquake focal mechanisms and all available GPS data (1999–2015) in the structural subzones of northern Iran, where have experienced more than 14 strong instrumental earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6). In addition, a tectonic stress model was inferred from the Focal Mechanism Stress Inversion (FMSI). The new crustal stress map was proposed by the weighted average analysis of the SSR, GSR, and FMSI. N35.5° E and N104° E were estimated for the Alborz and Talesh mountains, respectively. The numerical analysis of stress regimes confirms the slip partitioning mechanism of oblique shortening on the sub-parallel thrusts and strike-slip faults in the area. Four main stress regime categories were defined, including thrust (49.37%), strike-slip (39.24%), thrust with a strike-slip component (2.53%), normal (1.27%), and unknown faulting (7.59%). Seismic and geodetic moment rates (SMR and GMR) and their comparison were also calculated in order to evaluate the function of these parameters in determining the seismicity arrangement. The ratio of the seismic/geodetic moment rates for the area is ~70.7%. This ratio for the Alborz, western Koppeh-Dagh, north part of Central Iran, South Caspian Basin, and Talesh is ~0.9, 0.3, 11.9, 0.3, and 57.3, respectively, which indicates the most elastic energy has been released in the Talesh and the north part of Central Iran. The comparison of geodetic moment rates in the subzones of the area indicates that geodetic deformation is high in the Central Alborz (networks 8, 9, 17) and western Koppeh-Dagh (networks 5, 13).
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S. Agustawijaya, Didi, Heri Sulistiyono, and Ikhwan Elhuda. "Determination of the seismicity and peak ground acceleration for Lombok island: an evaluation on tectonic setting." MATEC Web of Conferences 195 (2018): 03018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201819503018.
Анотація:
Lombok Island is located in the Nusatenggara region, which is considered as one of the most active seismic parts of Indonesia. The determination of seismicity is crucial to the island, since Lombok Island is a relatively dense populated small island. Earthquakes that occurred around the island were generated by southern subduction mega-thrust and northern back-arc thrust. Mostly, distributions are concentrated on the north-west and south-east parts of Lombok Island. Probabilistic data analysis of 309 earthquake events during the period of 1973 - 2017 results in the Gutenberg-Richter parameters (a and b) of 3.62 and-0.53 indicating medium to high seismic activities. The Joyner-Boore attenuation relation seems to be suitable for seismic characteristics of the island. The reconstruction of tectonic setting indicates that the Benioff zone may develop at the depths of 150 km beneath the island causing horizontal tectonic forces working within the direction of N 171 °E - N 351 °E. This could create a strike-slip fault on the crustal basement within the NE - SW direction.
40
Wen, Y. K., and C. L. Wu. "Uniform Hazard Ground Motions for Mid-America Cities." Earthquake Spectra 17, no. 2 (May 2001): 359–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.1586179.
Анотація:
For performance evaluation of buildings and structures, synthetic uniform hazard (10% and 2% in 50 years) ground motions are generated for Memphis, Tennessee, St. Louis, Missouri, and Carbondale, Illinois. The method of simulation is based on the latest regional seismic information and stochastic ground motion models. Both point-source model and finite-fault model are used and the effects of soil profile are considered. The emphasis is on treatment of uncertainty and efficiency in application to evaluation of structural performance in both the linear and nonlinear range. The results show that the uniform hazard response spectra calculated from the simulated motions are comparable to those corresponding to USGS hazard maps. The suites of ten ground motions selected to match the uniform hazard response spectra represent events of different magnitudes, distances, and attenuation. The median value of the structural response to the selected ground motions matches closely the uniform hazard linear and nonlinear response spectra based on nine thousand ground motions and has a coefficient of variation of less than 10%. The suites of uniform hazard ground motions therefore can be used in probabilistic performance evaluation with good accuracy and efficiency.
41
Liang, Qingzhu, Mingxing Liu, Peng Xiao, Yun Guo, Jun Xiao, and Changhong Peng. "Reliability Assessment for a Safety-Related Digital Reactor Protection System Using Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) Method." Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations 2020 (November 30, 2020): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8839399.
Анотація:
The aim of this study is to verify if the reliability of a digital four-channel RPS under the design phase satisfies the specified target and to identify the weakness of system design and potential solutions for system reliability improvement. The event-tree/fault-tree (ET/FT), which is the method used in the current probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) framework of nuclear power plants (NPPs), was adopted to developed reliability modeling for the RPS with the Top Events defined as the system failure to generate reactor trip signal and the system generating spurious trip signal. The evaluation results indicate that the probability of the system failure on demand and the frequency of spurious trip signal generation are 1.47 × 10−6 with a 95% upper bound of 4.63 × 10−6 and 7.94 × 10−4/year with a 95% upper bound of 2.50 × 10−3/year, respectively. The importance and sensitivity analyses were conducted and it was found that undetected unsafe common cause failures (CCFs) of signal conditioning modules (SCMs) dominate the system reliability. Two preliminary optimization schemes relative to reducing periodic test interval and adapting two kinds of diverse SCMs were proposed. Results of the quantitive evaluation of the schemes show that neither of them could determinedly improve the system reliability to the target level. In the future, more detailed optimization analysis shall be required to determine a feasible system design optimization scheme.
42
Al-Tarazi, Eid, and Eric Sandvol. "Alternative Models of Seismic Hazard Evaluation along the Jordan–Dead Sea Transform." Earthquake Spectra 23, no. 1 (February 2007): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.2430543.
Анотація:
Three models were used to produce three probabilistic hazard maps for the Jordan–Dead Sea transform (DST). No seismic source zones were proposed. Models I and II are based on spatially smoothed historical and instrumentally recorded earthquakes. Model I used the data with magnitudes greater than 3.0 for the time period 1900 to 2003, while Model II used data with the magnitude range between 5.0 and 7.0 for the time period 2100 B.C. to A.D. 2003. Model III is the weighted model that is based on characteristic earthquakes that occurred along each major fault in the last ∼4,100 years. To assess the peak ground acceleration (PGA), three different attenuation equations were used. The resulting hazard maps represent 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which corresponds to a return period of 475 years. The maximum PGA value was 350 cm/sec2 for the northernmost part of the DST, namely, between latitudes 35.5° and 36.5° N, and the southwestern part of Cyprus. In the regions of maximum expected ground motion, there is general agreement between the results of this study and those of previous studies that used the seismic source zones. However, peak ground accelerations predicted in this study are typically 10–20% less than those of previous studies. We believe this study represents an improvement on prior seismic hazard evaluations for the region. In addition to the updated input data, we believe that, by integrating three models, a more robust estimate of the hazard is provided.
43
XING, LIUDONG. "RELIABILITY MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX HIERARCHICAL SYSTEMS." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 12, no. 06 (December 2005): 477–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539305001963.
Анотація:
In this paper we consider the problem of reliability modeling and analysis of hierarchical computer-based systems (HS) with modular imperfect coverage (MIPC) and common-cause failures (CCF). The MIPC and CCF can cause vertical dependence that runs through different levels of the system as well as horizontal dependence that runs across components or modules on the same system level. The consideration of these dependencies poses unique challenges to existing HS reliability analysis methods. We propose an efficient decomposition and aggregation approach named EDA-HS to the reliability evaluation of complex hierarchical systems with both MIPC and CCF as one way to meet the above challenges in an efficient and elegant manner. Our approach is to decouple the effects of both MIPC and CCF from the combinatorics of the solution. The approach is represented in a dynamic fault tree by a proposed probabilistic functional dependency gate and a proposed CCF gate modeled after the existing FDEP gate. We present the basics and advantages of the EDA-HS approach by working through an analysis of an example HS subject to MIPC and CCF.
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Cai, Guoqiang, Yaofei Wang, Qiong Song, and Chen Yang. "RAMS Analysis of Train Air Braking System Based on GO-Bayes Method and Big Data Platform." Complexity 2018 (October 14, 2018): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/5851491.
Анотація:
The RAMS (reliability, availability, maintainability, and security) of the air braking system is an important indicator to measure the safety performance of the system; it can reduce the life cycle cost (LCC) of the rail transit system. Existing safety analysis methods are limited to the level of relatively simple factual descriptions and statistical induction, failing to provide a comprehensive safety evaluation on the basis of system structure and accumulated data. In this paper, a new method of safety analysis is described for the failure mode of the air braking system, GO-Bayes. This method combines the structural modeling of the GO method with the probabilistic reasoning of Bayes methods, introduces the probability into the analysis process of GO, performs reliability analysis of the air braking system, and builds a big data platform for the air braking system to guide the system maintenance strategy. An automatic train air braking system is taken as an example to verify the usefulness and accuracy of the proposed method. Using ExtendSim software shows the feasibility of the method and its advantages in comparison with fault tree analysis.
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Shcherbovskykh, Serhiy, Volodumur Bilas, and Tetyana Stefanovych. "Reliability evaluation of wired tripled control channel for common, separate, and mixed cable jackets." Avtomatizacìâ virobničih procesìv u mašinobuduvannì ta priladobuduvannì 55 (2021): 15–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.23939/istcipa2021.55.015.
Анотація:
Aim. To develop an approach for quantifying the reliability of the wired tripled control channel with common, mixed, and separate cable jackets. Method. Reliability is formalized using block diagrams and dynamic fault trees. Static and dynamic models have been developed to evaluate the reliability indicators of the wired control channel with triple redundancy. The basis for obtaining these models is the state and transitions diagram. Static models are formed using logical-probabilistic expressions. Dynamic models are based on the principles of Markov analysis. Results. For the core failure intensity, which is higher than the intensity of the cable jacket failure, it is shown that a separate cable jacket provides the highest reliability, and a common cable jacket provides the lowest. Accordingly, the mixed cable jacket in terms of reliability occupies an intermediate position with a slight approximation to the separate. Reliability indicators calculated from static models are understated in all three cases compared to those calculated from dynamic models. Although static models give less accuracy, they do not require the structure of sophisticated Markov models. Scientific novelty. The approach for modeling the reliability of control channels with triple core redundancy for cases of separate, mixed and common cable jackets has been improved. Practical significance. The proposed approach is recommended to be used to assess the reliability during the equipment design, the operation of which may endanger the life and health of service personnel. The obtained results are a mathematical basis for studying the reliability of a wired cable channel with three cores, which are protected by reinforcement and cable jacket in different combinations.
46
Li, Xuejing, Weijin Xu, and Mengtan Gao. "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on Arias Intensity in the North–South Seismic Belt of China." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 112, no. 2 (November 16, 2021): 1149–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120210106.
Анотація:
ABSTRACT Arias intensity (IA), as an important seismic parameter, which contains the information of amplitude, frequencies, and duration of ground motion, plays a crucial role in characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake-induced landslides. In this article, we conducted probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) based on IA in China’s north–south seismic belt. We adopted the seismic sources and seismicity parameters used in the fifth generation of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map of China, and two ground-motion model of IA. The results show that the values of IA are greater than 0.11 m/s in most regions of the north–south seismic belt. The provincial capital cities and most prefecture-level cities in the seismic zone are located in the region with IA-values greater than 0.32 m/s. The values of IA are above 0.54 m/s in the region around the main fault zone. This means that the north–south seismic belt is prone to extremely high-seismic hazard, particularly earthquake-induced landslides. Therefore, it is important to strengthen the evaluation and prevention of earthquake-induced landslides in this area. As we have found significant differences in the values of IA calculated from different ground-motion model, it is necessary to study the ground-motion model of IA for the western geological environment of China. In addition, the PSHA based on IA gives more consideration to the influence of large earthquakes than that based on peak ground acceleration. Therefore, IA plays an important role in seismic design of major engineering projects. The results of this article are of great scientific significance for understanding the seismic hazard of the north–south seismic belt.
47
Phan, T. H., A. V. Petrov, M. Ph Do, M. G. Lai, and T. L. Nguyen. "Geological structure of central Vietnam by interpretation processing of gravitational survey data using the “COSCAD 3D” computer technology." Proceedings of higher educational establishments. Geology and Exploration 63, no. 5 (August 30, 2021): 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.32454/0016-7762-2020-63-5-77-90.
Анотація:
Background. The central regions of Vietnam are of strategic importance for the Republic, being, in fact, the gateway to the ASEAN countries. Investing in the exploration and evaluation of mineral resources, in particular ore minerals hidden at great depths, is a specific and necessary task for the country.Aim. To clarify the structural-tectonic scheme of the analysed area and to identify the main fault systems and zoning of the Central Vietnam area by the gravitational field based on classification algorithms.Materials and methods. The objectives were achieved by assessing the total gradient of the gravitational field, analysing the distribution of the field variance and the results of tracing the axes of the gravitational field anomaly. Interpretation processing of gravity data was carried out using the “COSCAD 3D” computer technology of statistical and spectral correlation data analysis.Results. The defined fault systems, which play an important role in the processes of mineral formation, have a northwestern, northeastern and latitudinal strike. The zoning of the study area according to the gravitational field, its characteristics and available geological information made it possible to identify 13 homogeneous areas. Each area is characterised by a certain level of gravitational field, the values of dispersion and total field gradient, as well as correlations between attributes. The classification results confirms the complexity of the geological structure of the area under study and the presence of three main strikes of the systems of tectonic dislocations – northwestern, northeastern and latitudinal.Conclusions. A large number of tectonic dislocations of various strikes and intensities, revealed using the methods of the probabilistic-statistical approach, implemented in the “COSCAD 3D” computer technology, indicates that the area under study is promising in terms of ore deposits.
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Wedmore, Luke N. J., Tess Turner, Juliet Biggs, Jack N. Williams, Henry M. Sichingabula, Christine Kabumbu, and Kawawa Banda. "The Luangwa Rift Active Fault Database and fault reactivation along the southwestern branch of the East African Rift." Solid Earth 13, no. 11 (November 14, 2022): 1731–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-13-1731-2022.
Анотація:
Abstract. Seismic hazard assessment in slow straining regions is challenging because earthquake catalogues only record events from approximately the last 100 years, whereas earthquake recurrence times on individual faults can exceed 1000 years. Systematic mapping of active faults allows fault sources to be used within probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, which overcomes the problems of short-term earthquake records. We use Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to analyse surface deformation in the Luangwa Rift in Zambia and develop the Luangwa Rift Active Fault Database (LRAFD). The LRAFD is an open-source geospatial database containing active fault traces and their attributes and is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6513691. We identified 18 faults that display evidence for Quaternary activity, and empirical relationships suggest that these faults could cause earthquakes up to Mw 8.1, which would exceed the magnitude of historically recorded events in southern Africa. On the four most prominent faults, the median height of Quaternary fault scarps varies between 12.9 ± 0.4 and 19.2 ± 0.9 m, which suggests they were formed by multiple earthquakes. Deformation is focused on the edges of the Luangwa Rift: the most prominent Quaternary fault scarps occur along the 207 km long Chipola and 142 km long Molaza faults, which are the rift border faults and the longest faults in the region. We associate the scarp on the Molaza Fault with possible surface ruptures from two 20th century earthquakes. Thus, the LRAFD reveals new insights into active faulting in southern Africa and presents a framework for evaluating future seismic hazard.
49
Guo, Junjun, Yitong Gu, Weihong Wu, Shihyu Chu, and Xinzhi Dang. "Seismic Fragility Assessment of Cable-Stayed Bridges Crossing Fault Rupture Zones." Buildings 12, no. 7 (July 19, 2022): 1045. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12071045.
Анотація:
Current studies lack probabilistic evaluations on the performance of fault-crossing bridges. This paper conducts seismic fragility analyses to evaluate the fragility of cable-stayed bridges with the effects of fault ruptures. Synthetic across-fault ground motions are generated using existing simulation methods for the low-frequency pulses and high-frequency residuals. Incremental dynamic analysis is utilized to generate the seismic responses of the bridge. The optimal intensity measure (IM) for a cable-stayed bridge that crosses a fault is identified based on the coefficient of determination (R2). Root-mean-square velocity (Vrms) is found to be the best IM for cable-stayed bridges traversed by fault ruptures, instead of the commonly used ones such as peak ground acceleration or velocity (PGA or PGV). Fragility curves for the critical components of fault-crossing cable-stayed bridges, including pylons, cables, and bearings, are developed using the IM of Vrms, and are subsequently compared with those for the cable-stayed bridge near faults. Results show that the bearings on transition piers are the most vulnerable component for fault-crossing cable-stayed bridges because of the rotation of their girder. Compared to cable-stayed bridges near faults, pylons and bearings are more vulnerable in the transverse direction for cable-stayed bridges crossing faults, whereas the vulnerability of cables is comparable.
50
Yim, Hyun-Tae, and Joo-Sung Kim. "Quantitative Analysis of Valve Contribution to the Failure Probability of Carbon Dioxide Suppression System." Fire Science and Engineering 34, no. 6 (December 31, 2020): 79–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.7731/kifse.46b8999c.
Анотація:
Carbon dioxide suppression systems are used in nuclear power plants to extinguish oil fires and ensure integrity of critical equipment. In this study, the contributions of the valves in the carbon dioxide suppression system to the failure probability of suppression were quantitatively analyzed, and the failure probability of the fire suppression system applied to the fire Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) was evaluated for appropriateness. Then, a reliability evaluation model was developed in the form of a fault tree, and the reliability data were analyzed for the major component. The failure probability of the carbon dioxide suppression system with early air-release equipment was assessed as 6.22 × 10<sup>-3</sup>/demand, which is 2.67 times that of the system without such equipment. The results were attributed to the addition of the diverted line isolation valves and quick exhaust valve to release residual air into the atmosphere before supplying carbon dioxide to the fire area. It was also confirmed that the failure probability of the carbon dioxide suppression system with the early air-release equipment was 15.6% that of the suppression provided by the fire PSA and that the failure probability of suppression by the fire PSA was conservative. There are no reported guidelines in literature for analyzing the reliabilities of carbon dioxide fire suppression systems, and the fire PSA currently use the failure probability of suppression recommended by the NSAC-179L.