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Статті в журналах з теми "Project uncertainty index"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 3 червня 2025

Оновлено: 31 липня 2025

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1

Chenarani, A., and E. A. Druzhinin. "A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects." Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research 7, no. 5 (2017): 2083–88. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1037254.

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Анотація:

The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results

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2

Chenarani, A., and E. A. Druzhinin. "A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects." Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research 7, no. 5 (2017): 2083–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.48084/etasr.1530.

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Анотація:

The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results

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3

Olson, Daniel, and Sean Yaw. "Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty." Energies 18, no. 4 (2025): 926. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18040926.

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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into

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4

Ge, Jiaojiao, Anxia Wan, Benhong Peng, and Guo Wei. "Risk evaluation of energy investment projects along the Belt and Road based on cloud model and evidence theory." Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 14, no. 5 (2022): 055903. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0093425.

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China's major energy projects along the Belt and Road are characterized by large-scale capital investment, long construction cycles, and complex investment environments, making it more difficult to assess project investment risks. Based on the PESTEL theory, a risk evaluation index system is constructed for energy enterprises' investment projects along the Belt and Road. In view of the uncertainty of energy investment projects, a risk evaluation method combining a cloud model and an evidence theory is proposed. To examine the developed index system and risk evaluation method, an overseas hydro

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5

Ali, Zaigham, Fangwei Zhu, and Shahid Hussain. "Identification and Assessment of Uncertainty Factors that Influence the Transaction Cost in Public Sector Construction Projects in Pakistan." Buildings 8, no. 11 (2018): 157. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings8110157.

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Анотація:

Like other kinds of projects, construction projects are exposed to uncertainty, which plays a critical role in determining the transaction cost (TC). This study explores the uncertainty factors that are associated with construction projects that substantially influence the TC. To obtain the opinions of construction professionals, a survey questionnaire was developed after identifying 30 relevant causes of uncertainty from the literature. A survey of 216 professionals was conducted in Pakistan, and the relative importance index (RII) was used to prioritize the significant uncertainty factors th

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6

Danko, E. V. "A Sensitivity Analysis of a Certain Mathematical Model of Expert Evaluation of Investment Projects." Izvestiya of Altai State University, no. 4(120) (September 10, 2021): 91–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.14258/izvasu(2021)4-14.

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The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the developed mathematical model of expert evaluation of investment projects. Processes of investment projects implementations are analyzed as decision-making processes under uncertainty. The mathematical model under study evaluates the effectiveness of an investment project using the NPV index. This index is considered a random variable and can be estimated by an investor as a segment [NPV1; NPV2J. The proposed mathematical model utilizes the probability density function of NPV in the form of Pearson curves of the first type. Another peculiar featu

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7

Xie, Yuan Fang, Xing Jun Cheng, and Xin Zhang. "The Project Bid Evaluation Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number and its Application." Applied Mechanics and Materials 357-360 (August 2013): 2188–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.357-360.2188.

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According to the fuzzification and uncertainty which exist in the evaluation of project,triangular fuzzy number analysis model was put forward.The model make good use of its characteristics on dealing with the uncertainty in evaluation,quantitative the quanlitative index,and give an example of a project to introduce its use.

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8

Liang, R., Z. Z. Xue, X. Wei, and R. Li. "Research on risk evaluation of logistics park construction project by FMEA based on hesitation environment." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1101, no. 7 (2022): 072015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1101/7/072015.

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Abstract Logistics Park, as a large-scale construction project, has many risk factors that may affect the normal operation of the project in its construction. If the influence of risk factors is ignored, it will bring irreparable losses. Therefore, according to the characteristics of logistics park construction project (LPCP), it is of great practical significance to propose a new risk management model for the risk research of LPCP. Considering the whole project, this paper puts forward a new risk analysis model for construction projects, establishes a risk evaluation index system according to

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9

Afzal, Farman, Shao Yunfei, Muhammad Sajid, and Fahim Afzal. "Integrated priority decision index for risk assessment in chaos: cost overruns in transport projects." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 27, no. 4 (2019): 825–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-02-2019-0079.

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Purpose Cost overrun is inherent to project chaos, which is one of the key drivers of project failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore the critical elements of complexity-risk interdependency for cost-chaos in the construction management domain by utilizing a multi-criteria decision model. Design/methodology/approach A total of 12 complexity and 60 risk attributes are initially identified from the literature and using expert’s judgements. For the development of a structured hierarchy of key complexity and risk drivers, a real-time Delphi process is adopted for recording and evaluating

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10

Baharum, Zirawani, Yuvendra Rao Venkatesan, Syazwa Nabila Mohd Raidzuan, and Muhammad Imran Qureshi. "The development of simulation model on environmental uncertainty factors for interval project completion." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 2.29 (2018): 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.29.13130.

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Анотація:

The construction industry has many underlying causes of uncertainty that has impact on late delivery of project completion's performance as well as in time management. The issue on uncertainty delays directly impact the project performance that leads into unnecessary time extension. The objective of the research is the way to create a valid model towards the environmental uncertainty factors. Therefore, this research is conducted to identify the impact of environmental issues which affect the period of project completion using the Witness software system. A literature review revealed the types

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11

Liu, Xun, Zhiyuan Xue, Zhenhan Ding, and Siyu Chen. "Sustainability Assessment of Municipal Infrastructure Projects Based on Continuous Interval Argumentation Ordered Weighted Average (C-OWA) and Cloud Models." Sustainability 15, no. 6 (2023): 4706. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15064706.

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Анотація:

The goals of sustainable development are constantly negatively impacted by infrastructure initiatives. The importance of these projects in advancing the economic, social, and civilizational growth of the country will, however, prevent their construction from being stopped. The overall construction of the project is related to the scientific and unbiased assessment of an infrastructure project’s sustainability throughout the decision-making stage. Based on the references documents, this paper establishes an index system for evaluating an infrastructure project’s sustainability from three aspect

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12

Li, Mu, Jia Jie Wang, and Jing Yi Wang. "Evaluation and Optimization of Research Projects Based on Grey Relational Analysis Method." Applied Mechanics and Materials 155-156 (February 2012): 1045–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.155-156.1045.

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Research project evaluation is an important part of research management, and there is no unified approach to evaluate research projects．On the basis of the characteristics of complexity and the uncertainty of optimal selection for research projects, grey relational analysis model in research projects selection application has been put forward in this paper. The index system of influencing research projects selection is determined. Application model and procedures of the grey relational analysis method are introduced. According to the degree how close it is with the ideal dot, the optimal proje

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13

Song, Ti, Lian Yu Wei, Cai Li Zhang, and Pei Chen. "Project Logistics Risk Evaluation Based on Matter-Element Analysis." Applied Mechanics and Materials 174-177 (May 2012): 2820–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.174-177.2820.

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The project logistics indicators system of risk evaluation is established through analyzing the project logistics risk characteristics. Risk evaluation model is proposed based on matter-element theory.The project logistics risk、evaluation index and the characteristic value are taken as the matter-element. The logistics risk grade can be gained by calculating the risk coefficient of correlation, using subjective and objective combination weighting methods and the integrated risk correlation calculating in the end. An example is used to validate the proposed method. The results show this model c

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14

Qiao, Yuanlu, and Jingpeng Wang. "An intuitionistic fuzzy site selection decision framework for waste-to-energy projects from the perspective of "Not In My Backyard" risk." AIMS Mathematics 8, no. 2 (2022): 3676–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/math.2023184.

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<abstract> <p>In the process of site selection for waste-to-energy (WtE) projects, the public is concerned about the impact of project construction on the surrounding environment and physical health and thus resists the construction site, leading to the emergence of "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) risk, which hinders the implementation of WtE projects. These risks make the ambiguity and uncertainty of scheme evaluation and decision higher. In this regard, this study constructed a WtE project site selection decision framework based on comprehensive consideration of NIMBY risk. Firstly,

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15

Tope, Femi Okuntade. "Managing Construction Uncertainty In The Nigerian Construction Industry Through The Application Of Fuzzy Logic Model." International Journal of Business, Economics and Management Works 2, no. 5 (2015): 31–36. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17712.

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Delays in construction projects can be due to a number of factors, which need to be classified and identified. For the success of a construction project, estimation of the plausibility of delay resulting from different factors must be carried out or fully investigated. This research is the extension of delay analysis techniques by using fuzzy logic method. The paper presents a practical application of fuzzy logic theory in predicting construction project delay using Fuzzy toolbox of MATLAB Program Software, the delay factors are identified based on literature review from other studies and opin

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16

Lianto, Ignatius Edward, and Basuki Anondho. "ANALISIS BESARAN KOEFISIEN KETIDAKPASTIAN ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY (EU) YANG BERPENGARUH PADA PERHITUNGAN BUFFER PADA CRITICAL CHAIN PROJECT MANAGEMENT (CCPM) DI JAKARTA." JMTS: Jurnal Mitra Teknik Sipil 1, no. 2 (2018): 143. http://dx.doi.org/10.24912/jmts.v1i2.2671.

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Proyek konstruksi rentan terhadap berbagai macam kendala, seperti kompleksitas proyek, kelangkaan sumber daya, dan ketidakpastian durasi proyek. Terdapat sebuah metode untuk penjadwalan konstruksi yang bernama Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM). Terdapat dua tantangan dalam implementasi CCPM pada penjadwalan konstruksi, salah satunya adalah pengukuran buffer. Buffer memiliki peran penting untuk memastikan keberhasilan manajemen jadwal. Metode Uncertainty-Aware Method (UAM) digunakan untuk menghasilkan buffer yang proporsional dengan memperhitungkan beragam ketidakpastian. Salah satu jeni

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17

Dong, Kai, Zhankuan Mi, and Dewei Yang. "Comprehensive Diagnosis Method of the Health of Tailings Dams Based on Dynamic Weight and Quantitative Index." Sustainability 14, no. 5 (2022): 3068. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14053068.

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As a dangerous source of man-made debris flow with high potential energy, tailings dams can cause huge losses to people’s lives and property downstream once they break, and their safety control problem is particularly prominent. The health diagnosis of tailings dams is a complex and nonlinear problem full of uncertainty. At present, the health diagnosis of tailings dams is mostly qualitative evaluation or quantitative analysis aiming at a single index, so this study puts forward a comprehensive quantitative diagnosis method of tailings dam health based on dynamic weight. Slope stability, defor

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18

Maslyukova, Ekaterina, Yuliya Anoshina, Almaz Khakimov, and Maxim Aleksandrovskiy. "Methodology for the development of innovation projects on the basis of competitiveness indexes." MATEC Web of Conferences 239 (2018): 08012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201823908012.

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This paper presents the results of research in the field of developing innovation projects on the basis of the identification of factors of competitiveness. The principles of formation of competitiveness, including the principle of systematicity, goal-setting, efficiency, adaptability, uncertainty, and innovativeness, are substantiated. A model for the development of a competitive innovation project based on an analysis of external and internal factors providing competitive advantages is proposed. As a result of the research, an integral index of competitiveness of innovation projects was form

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19

CAÑO, Alfredo del, M. Pilar de la CRUZ, Diego GÓMEZ, and Miguel PÉREZ. "FUZZY METHOD FOR ANALYSING UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUSTAINABLE DESIGN OF CONCRETE STRUCTURES." JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 22, no. 7 (2016): 924–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2014.928361.

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The model presented here is based on fuzzy arithmetic techniques and the MIVES method, which is based, in turn, on requirement trees, value analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Even though it encompasses the approach for assessing sustainability adopted by the Spanish Structural Concrete Code (EHE), the model can also be applied to concrete structures designed according to other structural codes. The EHE model serves to estimate the Structure’s Contribution to Sustainability Index (ICES) and constitutes the first sustainability model included in a structural code. The ICES crisp model

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20

Ran, Li, Meng Li, Yang Sun, Shuo Ding, Jie Yang, and Chunhui Ma. "A Method for Determining the Displacement Monitoring Index for Rockfill Dams Considering Material Uncertainty." Applied Sciences 15, no. 8 (2025): 4164. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15084164.

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To consider the influence of material parameter uncertainty on the structural deformation of a dam effectively and to establish a reasonable and reliable safety monitoring index for the displacement of a rockfill dam, a method for determining the displacement monitoring index of a rockfill dam based on stochastic finite element analysis is proposed in this paper. Firstly, uncertainty in the mechanical parameters of the rockfill material is simulated via the correlation log-normal random field, and the statistical characteristics of the dam displacement under the stability of the resultant dist

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21

Grinaj, Michaela. "Avoiding or Accepting the Unknown: Asylum in the European Union." Bulgarian Journal of International Economics and Politics 4, no. 1 (2024): 86–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.37075/bjiep.2024.1.05.

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Many scholars have already dedicated their attention to the perceived migration crisis in Europe and related phenomena. The objective of the present paper is to examine tendencies of selected European national cultures to accept diversity and people with a migration background. The research hypothesis posits that countries with low Uncertainty Avoidance Index are more likely to accept migrants and refugees in their territory; while, on the contrary, countries that have relatively higher Uncertainty Avoidance Index tend to be more sceptical in regard to accepting migrants and refugees. In the s

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22

Liang, Baorui, Suhua Zhang, Dongping Li, et al. "Safety Risk Evaluation of Construction Site Based on Unascertained Measure and Analytic Hierarchy Process." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2021 (November 23, 2021): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/7172938.

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Due to the high risk of construction sites, it is necessary to make safety risk evaluation. With the synthetic consideration of the complexity and uncertainty of construction sites, a comprehensive evaluation index system with two levels has been based on the emphases and difficulties of the current safety work in construction industry; the index system includes civilized construction site, management of machinery, equipment, materials, occupation health protection, and the subpackage management, such as 6 one-level evaluation indexes, inspection system of safety risk, safety awareness educati

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23

Zhang, Yun Ning, and You Hong Cai. "The Research on the Management of Project Group for Flexibility Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation." Applied Mechanics and Materials 121-126 (October 2011): 4842–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.121-126.4842.

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Project group is characteristic of dynamic uncertainty and higher complexity ，which decides its management methods need to have enough flexibility. Based on the analysis of the flexible influence factors of the project group of management, the paper constructs the project group management flexibility evaluation index system, introduces fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to the evaluation, and in order to increase its objectivity and feasibility ures the gray correlation analysis method to determine the weights during the process of solving. Finally provides an application example to show th

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24

Neyezhmakov, Pavel, Alexander Prokopov, Tatiana Panasenko, and Andrii Shloma. "Analysis of the temperature component of the combined standard uncertainty of the refractive index according to the test data of the control system for meteorological parameters developed for the Lyptsi geodetic polygon." Ukrainian Metrological Journal, no. 4 (December 30, 2021): 34–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.24027/2306-7039.4.2021.250411.

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The National Scientific Centre “Institute of Metrology” is actively involved in the implementation of a number of international projects under the EMPIR programme. One of such joint projects is the EMPIR 18SIB01 GeoMetre research project “Large-scale dimensional measurements for geodesy”. The overall goal of the project is to ensure traceability of length measurements – from the measurement standard of the unit of length to long distances typical for geodetic measurements. As a result of the project, it is necessary to provide length measurements of at least 5 km with an expanded uncertainty o

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25

Abdulai, Patricia Jitta, and Eun-Sung Chung. "Uncertainty Assessment in Drought Severities for the Cheongmicheon Watershed Using Multiple GCMs and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging Method." Sustainability 11, no. 16 (2019): 4283. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11164283.

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The consequence of climate variations on hydrology remains the greatest challenging aspect of managing water resources. This research focused on the quantitative approach of the uncertainty in variations of climate influence on drought pattern of the Cheongmicheon watershed by assigning weights to General Circulation Models (GCMs) based on model performances. Three drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are used for three durations 3-, 6- and 9-months. This study included 27 GCMs fro

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26

B.D., Oluyemi-Ayibiowu, and Omolayo J.O. "Critical Factors Responsible for Time Overruns in Nigeria Building Construction Industry." International Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering 4, no. 1 (2022): 22–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.52589/ijmce-iqyk7v9w.

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Time overruns are major problems facing the Nigerian construction industry. It’s of high concern to those who are involved in the construction industry. This study was carried out to identify the major causes of time overruns in the Nigerian building construction industry, by means of a literature review and a questionnaire survey. A total of twenty (20) time overrun causative factors were obtained from the literature. The questionnaire survey was distributed to randomly selected respondents from a combination of clients, consultants, contractors, site engineers, project managers and sub-contr

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27

Durugbo, Christopher M., Zainab Al-Balushi, Abdellatef Anouze, and Omar Amoudi. "Critical indices and model of uncertainty perception for regional supply chains: insights from a Delphi-based study." Supply Chain Management: An International Journal 25, no. 5 (2020): 549–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/scm-10-2019-0373.

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Purpose The dynamic nature of uncertainty sources in regional operations represents supply chain management (SCM) imperatives to review uncertainty management frameworks on an ongoing basis with a view to identifying and prioritising critical indices of uncertainty for effective SCM. The purpose of this study is to identify the critical indices of uncertainty for regional supply chains and analyse how SCM practitioners perceive uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents a Delphi-based study with a panel of 70 SCM experts from the Sultanate of Oman in the Gulf Cooperation Coun

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28

Mohagheghi, Vahid, Seyed Meysam Mousavi, Jurgita Antuchevičienė, and Yahya Dorfeshan. "SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT SELECTION BY A NEW GROUP DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK INTRODUCING MORAS METHOD IN AN INTERVAL TYPE 2 FUZZY ENVIRONMENT." International Journal of Strategic Property Management 23, no. 6 (2019): 390–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2019.10536.

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Project management is a process that is involved with making important decisions under uncertainty. In project management often the existing data is limited and vague. Sustainable project selection has a multi-criteria evaluation nature which calls for attending to various often conflicting factors under vagueness. To deal with sustainable project selection several important factors should be properly considered. In this paper, in order to provide a new multi-criteria project selection method, a novel last aggregation method is presented. This method has several main novelties. First, to addre

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29

Alshibani, Adel, Badr Eddin Hafez, Mohammad A. Hassanain, Awsan Mohammed, Mohammed Al-Osta, and Ashraf Bahraq. "Fuzzy Logic-Based Method for Forecasting Project Final Cost." Buildings 14, no. 12 (2024): 3738. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings14123738.

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Forecasting the final cost of construction projects during the construction phases is challenging, particularly for long-duration projects, due to the rise in uncertainties associated with future cost performance index values after report dates and the impact of many factors on cost performance. Current practices, along with existing methods and models, often assume that the cost performance index (CPI) achieved at the report date will continue as is for the remaining work and they fail to assess the risk of cost overruns. This assumption may not be true, as in many cases, the cost performance

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30

Xu, Qian, Li Tao Geng, and Chuan Zeng Song. "Study on Highway Investment Decision under Uncertainty with Shackle Model." Applied Mechanics and Materials 97-98 (September 2011): 176–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.97-98.176.

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Shackle model is used to study highway investment decision under uncertainty. In Shackle model, the uncertainty associated with possible outcomes for project benefit analysis is measured by degree of surprise, and a priority index for performance evaluation of each possible outcome and degree of surprise pair is proposed, thus, the standardized focus gain value and focus loss value from the expected outcome can be established. The standardized focus gain-over-loss ratios corresponding to multiple performance measures are synthesized into an overall ratio as the overall benefits, and then the p

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31

Danko, E. V., Ye K. Yergaliyev, and M. N. Madiyarov. "Computational Methods in Problems of Subjective Assessment of Investment Decisions Effectiveness." Izvestiya of Altai State University, no. 1(111) (March 6, 2020): 77–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.14258/izvasu(2020)1-12.

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The paper describes the implementation of investment projects under conditions of uncertainty. In the developed mathematical model, the effectiveness of an investment project is evaluated by the NPV index. This index is considered a random variable that can be estimated by an investor to within a segment [NPV1;NPV2]. The main difficulties of the decision-making process arise when the segment [NPV1;NPV2] includes zero value. In the developed model, we use the probability density function of NPV value in the form of Pearson curves of the first type. This paper discusses in detail some particular

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32

Viunyk, Olha, and Olha Kirichenko. "Transformation of Logistics and Project Management Concepts in the Context of Digitalization and European Integration." Central Ukrainian Scientific Bulletin. Economic Sciences, no. 9(42) (2023): 279–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.32515/2663-1636.2023.9(42).279-289.

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The paper is devoted to the essence of logistics, project, logistics and project management. The comparative analysis of the logistics efficiency index was carried out in Ukraine in comparison with the countries of the European Union, which made it possible to note its low values in our country both under martial law and in the pre-war period, as well as the components of this index (customs, infrastructure, international shipments, logistics competence and equality, timeliness, tracking and tracing). The consequences of the impact of digitalization on the transformation of logistics and proje

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Pindiga, Sushma Niveni. "Time-Series Forecasting: Predicting Stock Index Using Arima and Facebooks Prophet Model." International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology 10, no. 6 (2022): 4832–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.45073.

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Abstract: The DJIA is a New York Stock Exchange volatility index that incorporates the 30 maximum widespread shares inside the U.S stock market. Since the stock market is based totally on threats and speculations, forecasting the DJIA index helps us know the trends of 30 companies indexed. As a result, it helps investors of these 30 companies to be cautious. But forecasting these stock indexes could be challenging to assess as they were affected by various causes, making the prediction inaccurate. Throughout the paper, specific modifications had been accomplished at the version to increase the

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Álvarez-Espada, Juan-Manuel, José Luis Fuentes-Bargues, Alberto Sánchez-Lite, and Cristina González-Gaya. "Complexity Assessment in Projects Using Small-World Networks for Risk Factor Reduction." Buildings 14, no. 12 (2024): 4065. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14124065.

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Despite following standard practices of well-known project management methodologies, some projects fail to achieve expected results, incurring unexplained cost overruns or delays. These problems occur regardless of the type of project, the environment, or the project manager’s experience and are characteristic of complex projects. Such projects require special control using a multidimensional network approach that includes contractual aspects, supply and resource considerations, and information exchange between stakeholders. By modelling project elements as nodes and their interrelations as li

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Afzal, Farman, Shao Yunfei, Danish Junaid, and Muhammad Shehzad Hanif. "Cost-risk contingency framework for managing cost overrun in metropolitan projects: using fuzzy-AHP and simulation." International Journal of Managing Projects in Business 13, no. 5 (2020): 1121–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijmpb-07-2019-0175.

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PurposeRisk analysis plays a vital role in controlling and managing cost overruns in complex construction projects, particularly where uncertainty is high. This study attempts to address an important issue of cost overrun that encountered by metropolitan rapid transit projects in relation to the significance of risk involved under high uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachIn order to solve cost overrun problems in metropolitan transit projects and facilitate the decision-makers for effective future budgeting, a cost-risk contingency framework has been designed using fuzzy logic, analytical h

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Stawicki, Roman. "SENSE OF UNCERTAINTY AS A CRITERION OF HUMAN SECURITY." Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP 87 (September 29, 2023): 399–414. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0053.9171.

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The sense of uncertainty has become one of the key criteria of human security in the third decade of the 21st century. The relationship between the sense of uncertainty and human security has been presented in the theoretical-cognitive and empirical aspects. The research results described in this publication are only one of the components of the completed research project in 2022. The aim of the research presented in this article was to analyze the impact of uncertainty on human security in the third decade of the 21st century. The first research problem was related to the recognition of the r

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Zhu, Sulu, Pengqun Gao, Qunzhi Cheng, Yang Zhou, Shiliang Yang, and Tianming Zhang. "A Similarity-Based Hesitant Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approach and Its Application in Hydraulic Engineering Project Management." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2022 (August 12, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/4111872.

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Hesitancy and uncertainty features of experts are common in the decision-making process, especially for the project management events. To solve this problem, a novel similarity-based decision-making approach is put forward, as well as an application to the hydraulic engineering project management. Several experts, who are invited in the decision-making process, are suggested to adopt hesitant fuzzy preference relations (HFPRs) to show their evaluations. To measure the similarity degree of experts, a novel integrated similarity index (SI) is given combining the alternative ranking-based similar

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Obronova, A. M., A. V. Bondar, and S. Р. Onyshсhenko. "Monitoring the Quality of Project Management Processes Based on the Entropy Conception." Business Inform 1, no. 528 (2022): 438–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-1-438-444.

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According to the entropy conception of management, entropy is the main integral indicator of the state of an individual project or an organization as a whole. The need for such a new approach to management is due to significant changes in the conditions of conducting all types of businesses and the implementation of various projects, and, as a result, an increase in uncertainty of both conditions and results of companies or project implementation. The entropy conception of management is universal in terms of the essence of projects or activities, covering both commercial projects and types of

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Bormann, H. "Evaluation of hydrological models for scenario analyses: signal-to-noise-ratio between scenario effects and model uncertainty." Advances in Geosciences 5 (December 16, 2005): 43–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-43-2005.

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Abstract. Many model applications suffer from the fact that although it is well known that model application implies different sources of uncertainty there is no objective criterion to decide whether a model is suitable for a particular application or not. This paper introduces a comparative index between the uncertainty of a model and the change effects of scenario calculations which enables the modeller to objectively decide about suitability of a model to be applied in scenario analysis studies. The index is called "signal-to-noise-ratio", and it is applied for an exemplary scenario study w

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Chen, Wenqiang, Yufei Zhao, Lipeng Liu, and Xiaogang Wang. "A New Evaluation Method for Slope Stability Based on TOPSIS and MCS." Advances in Civil Engineering 2020 (February 19, 2020): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1209470.

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Slope evaluation is a basic geotechnical engineering issue. The rationality of index weight greatly affects the accuracy of evaluation results in the evaluation system. Furthermore, in practical engineering, some indexes can be considered random variables obeying a certain distribution. Traditional evaluation methods of slope stability ignore the effect of this index uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain the evaluation results of slope stability reasonably by modifying the previous weighting methods and considering the uncertainty values of the indexes. A new method has been introd

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Fiorentini, Nicholas, Diego Mariotti, and Massimo Rovai. "Defining Risk Curves in feasibility analyses of urban regeneration projects with Monte Carlo method." Valori e Valutazioni 36 (2024): 149–70. https://doi.org/10.48264/vvsiev-20243609.

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Urban regeneration projects offer numerous community benefits, such as improved housing quality and public spaces, but they also carry risks due to uncertainties in key variables for financial analysis, particularly in Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA). This research presents a practical tool developed in MS Excel that exploits the Monte Carlo method to quantify the risk of loss of value in these projects. Additionally, innovative Risk Curves are introduced to help investors assess the risks based on specified uncertainties in input variables. Focusing on the urban regeneration of the “Merc

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Kandel, Shankar. "Ranking Key Performance Factors in Public Building Construction: Evidence from Gaidakot Municipality, Nepal." INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 09, no. 05 (2025): 1–9. https://doi.org/10.55041/ijsrem48979.

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ABSTRACT Cost overruns and delays remain major barriers to the successful completion of building construction projects, particularly in developing nations like Nepal. This study explores the root causes of performance variance in public building construction projects in Nepal, specifically within the Gaindakot Municipality, a region noted for its developing infrastructure. Through a strict mixed-methods research approach, the methodology integrates intensive case studies with large questionnaire surveys across a broad cross-section of stakeholders, including contractors, engineers, and local g

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Yurlov, Felix F., Sergey N. Yashin, and Anna F. Plekhanova. "Classes of task problems for determining the effectiveness of investment projects, taking into account the uncertainty of the external environment and multi-criteria." Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management 13, no. 4 (2023): 72–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.18287/2542-0461-2022-13-4-72-81.

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The article is devoted to the classification of decision-making tasks when choosing investment projects in conditions when uncontrollable factors act in these tasks that affect the efficiency of the compared projects, and the projects themselves must be evaluated by a set of criteria. In modern scientific literature, the issues of assessing the effectiveness of investments are often considered in isolation from issues related to the methodology for making optimal decisions in the economy. This can lead to an incorrect choice of investment projects when they are selected for financing, especial

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Yang, Taihua, Zhixiang Li, and Jing Qin. "AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the safety risk in power investment project along “the Belt and Road”." E3S Web of Conferences 118 (2019): 01039. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201911801039.

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Energy is the focal point of “the belt and Road” investment cooperation. Because of the uncertainty factors, the safety risk of investment and construction is high, so the management and control of project is very difficult. Taking the 50M wind farm project in a South Asian country as an example, this paper constructs a safety risk assessment index system including 14 basic factors through the identification of the safety factors of “the belt and road” power investment project, and analyzes it by using the AHPfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the final safety risk ev

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Oshodi, Olalekan, Obuks Augustine Ejohwomu, Ibukun Oluwadara Famakin, and Paulo Cortez. "Comparing univariate techniques for tender price index forecasting: Box-Jenkins and neural network model." Construction Economics and Building 17, no. 3 (2017): 109–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.5130/ajceb.v17i3.5524.

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The poor performance of projects is a recurring event in the construction sector. Information gleaned from literature shows that uncertainty in project cost is one of the significant causes of this problem. Reliable forecast of construction cost is useful in mitigating the adverse effect of its fluctuation, however the availability of data for the development of multivariate models for construction cost forecasting remains a challenge. The study seeks to investigate the reliability of using univariate models for tender price index forecasting. Box-Jenkins and neural network are the modelling t

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Maniar, H. "Contingency Management in Indian Construction Projects." Journal of Construction Business and Management 4, no. 2 (2020): 11–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.15641/jcbm.4.2.840.

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The successful completion of Indian construction projects possesses an inherent uncertainty due to the nature of the construction industry along with prevailing tepid recovery of the Indian economy, which has made it difficult for construction companies to achieve required operational and financial performance. This necessitates having accurate project cost estimation and efficient contingency management to shield unknown project risk and address cost overrun problems. Therefore, this study aims to assess the current state, the issues faced in contingency management and evaluating the effectiv

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Alexander, Vasiliev, Vasilieva Nataliia, and Tupko Natalia. "Development of a systems approach to assessment of investment project risks: risks of unacceptably low project profitability." Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies 1, no. 4 (115) (2022): 77–86. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2022.252997.

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A new systems approach to quantitative estimation of financial risks of investment projects was proposed: an integral risk of the project as a whole for all its parameters at once and the risks for each of its parameters separately. At the same time, the very concept of the project risk has been generalized: instead of the conventional risk of unprofitability, a new, more general concept of the risk of unacceptably low project profitability has been introduced. Two levels of the project profitability were considered: a level acceptable to the investor and a realistically achievable level. Corr

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Vasiliev, Alexander, Nataliia Vasilieva, and Natalia Tupko. "Development of a systems approach to assessment of investment project risks: risks of unacceptably low project profitability." Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies 1, no. 4 (115) (2022): 77–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2022.252997.

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A new systems approach to quantitative estimation of financial risks of investment projects was proposed: an integral risk of the project as a whole for all its parameters at once and the risks for each of its parameters separately. At the same time, the very concept of the project risk has been generalized: instead of the conventional risk of unprofitability, a new, more general concept of the risk of unacceptably low project profitability has been introduced. Two levels of the project profitability were considered: a level acceptable to the investor and a realistically achievable level. Corr

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Coca, Pablo, Amabel García-Domínguez, and Juan Claver. "Analysis of Restrictions on Public Funding and Management of R&D Projects Arising from Legislation: The Case of the Spanish Context." Administrative Sciences 14, no. 11 (2024): 294. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/admsci14110294.

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This article examines the challenges posed by national legislative frameworks in the European Union Member States regarding the management of publicly funded research and development (R&D) projects. Taking the case of Spain and its General Subsidies Act as an example, this study analyzes 55 R&D funding calls published by the Spanish Central Administration in 2021 and 2022. This research identifies key challenges associated with change management in these projects. This research performed a detailed review of relevant legislation and its application to R&D projects, alongside an ana

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Syed, Maqsood Zia Imran Ahmed Shah* Sirajud Din Mansoor Ahmed Junejo Mumtaz Ali Junejo Fawwad Mahmood Butt Saaherah Basil Alkilany Ghulam Akbar Khaskheli. "Model for Maintaining Stability in Budget Allocation in Metropolitan Infrastructure Development Projects Using Cost-Risk Contingency." Multicultural Education 7, no. 6 (2021): 351. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5007685.

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<em>Risk analysis plays a vital role in controlling and managing cost overruns in complex construction projects, particularly where uncertainty is high. Numerous tools and techniques have been employed to better evaluate the risk and maintain stability in cost, but progress has been limited. In order to prevent cost overruns in metropolitan infrastructure development projects and assist decision makers ineffective budgeting for the future, a cost-risk contingency model has been developed using fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy. A hierarchical structure to break down the risk in important ri

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