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Journal articles on the topic '1984 Presidential Election'

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Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 8 February 2022

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1

Epstein, Laurily K. "The Changing Structure of Party Identification." PS: Political Science & Politics 18, no. 01 (1985): 48–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096500021284.

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However one wishes to characterize Walter Mondale's campaign for the presidency, his loss was only the latest in a series of Democratic presidential candidate defeats beginning in 1968. In 1968, Hubert Humphrey got 43 percent of the popular vote. In 1972, George McGovem received 38 percent of the popular vote. And in both 1980 and 1984, the Democratic presidential tickets got 41 percent of the popular vote. Only in 1976 did a Democratic presidential candidate receive a (very slim) majority of the popular votes cast. Indeed, Democratic presidential candidates have received only 42 percent of the total votes cast between 1968 and 1984.Although Democratic presidential candidates have not been faring well for 16 years, party identification has remained about the same—with the Democrats as the majority party. Until 1984. And that is what makes the 1984 election interesting, for in this election the voters finally seemed to change their party identification to correspond with what now appears to be their habit of electing Republican presidents.In 1980, when Jimmy Carter received the same proportion of the total votes cast as did Walter Mondale in 1984, self-styled Democrats were still in the majority. But, by 1984, Republicans and Democrats were at a virtual tie nationwide, as these figures from NBC News election day voter polls demonstrate.

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2

Axelrod, Robert. "Presidential Election Coalitions in 1984." American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (1986): 281–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957096.

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This report provides an update of major characteristics of the Democratic and Republican party coalitions for the recent U.S. presidential election. Earlier reports published in this Review have provided this kind of analysis from 1952 to 1980.

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3

Lichtman, Allan J. "The Keys to the White House." International Journal of Information Systems and Social Change 1, no. 1 (2010): 31–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jssc.2010092903.

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The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every US presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2008. The Keys demonstrate that American presidential elections do not turn on events of the campaign, but rather on the performance of the party controlling the White House. The Keys hold important lessons for politics in the United States and worldwide. A preliminary forecast based on the Keys indicates that President Obama is a likely winner in 2012, but also reveals the specific problems at home at abroad that could thwart his re-election.

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4

Campbell, James E. "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections." American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (1986): 45–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957083.

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The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential elections in proportion to the presidential vote in a state, and subsequently loses seats in midterm elections also in proportion to the prior presidential vote in the state. The presidential coattail and the midterm repercussion effects are evident even when gubernatorial coattail effects are introduced, but are fairly modest in states lacking competitive parties.

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5

Woodrum, Eric. "Moral Conservatism and the 1984 Presidential Election." Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 27, no. 2 (1988): 192. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1386715.

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6

Sigelman, Lee, and Michael M. Gant. "Anticandidate voting in the 1984 presidential election." Political Behavior 11, no. 1 (1989): 81–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00993368.

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7

West, Darrell M. "Television and Presidential Popularity in America." British Journal of Political Science 21, no. 2 (1991): 199–214. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400006104.

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Presidential approval ratings are a frequently used barometer of performance and popularity. However, despite recognition of the media age in which we live, little work has examined the impact of television on presidential popularity. Using a 1980 and 1984 television content study, panel data from the 1980 National Election Study and rolling cross-sectional data from the 1984 Continuous Monitoring Study, I compare two American presidents (Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan) commonly seen as having different effectiveness on television. While media effects were not uniformly present during the two presidencies, there was some evidence that television harmed popularity, particularly when the content of news stories and commentary turned negative. I conclude by discussing the ramifications of these results for presidential strategies based on ‘going public’.

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8

Tate, Katherine. "Black Political Participation in the 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections." American Political Science Review 85, no. 4 (1991): 1159–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1963940.

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Using data from a longitudinal telephone study of voting-eligible black Americans I explore the political context of black voter turnout in the 1984 and 1988 presidential elections and reexamine the attitudinal and demographic variables associated with black electoral participation. Jesse Jackson supporters were more likely to vote in the 1984 presidential election, while black opposition to Reagan was also linked to black voter turnout in 1984. Nonetheless, blacks who preferred Jackson to other primary contenders in the 1988 nominating contest were less likely to vote in the presidential election. Finally, while education, political interest, partisanship, and age were generally associated with black voter participation, race identification had a less consistent effect. Instead, church membership and involvement in black political organizations serve as alternative, community-based resources that promote black participation. This research underscores the importance of both political context and group-based political resources in stimulating the black vote.

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9

Johnson, Stephen D., and Joseph B. Tamney. "The Christian Right and the 1984 Presidential Election." Review of Religious Research 27, no. 2 (1985): 124. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3511667.

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10

Ladd, Everett Carll. "On Mandates, Realignments, and the 1984 Presidential Election." Political Science Quarterly 100, no. 1 (1985): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2150858.

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11

Lewis-Beck, Michael S. "Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?" PS: Political Science & Politics 18, no. 01 (1985): 53–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096500021296.

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One autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone wants to know who will win, and everyone has a guess. Now, with the ballots carefully counted, forecasters await their awards. Below, I evaluate the quality of a wide range of 1984 presidential and congressional forecasts. The evaluation proceeds from nonscientific to scientific approaches, although this distinction is sometimes blurred. To lower the level of suspense, I should say that some forecasts turned out to be quite good. By way of conclusion, I offer a set of rules for selecting a high-quality forecasting instrument.Lucky GuessesMany popular election forecasting rules take advantage of chance, which has been working in their favor. Perhaps the most famous is the World Series forecast, which says, “If the American League wins the World Series, then the Republican presidential candidate will win.” This technique was accurate from 1952 to 1976, missed in 1980, but worked again in 1984 with the victory of the Detroit Tigers. A lesser known rule of this type, which is my personal favorite, is based on the Beaujolais wine harvest. Accordingly, “If the Beaujolais vintage looks bad, then the Republican will take the presidency.” This has held post-1960, and continues to do so with the poor 1984 crop (yielding a wine too light, with little color). There are other such rules that relate more directly to the candidates themselves and, in that sense, have more verisimilitude.

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12

Kinder, Donald R., Gordon S. Adams, and Paul W. Gronke. "Economics and Politics in the 1984 American Presidential Election." American Journal of Political Science 33, no. 2 (1989): 491. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111157.

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13

Rasinski, Kenneth A., and Tom R. Tyler. "Fairness and Vote Choice in the 1984 Presidential Election." American Politics Quarterly 16, no. 1 (1988): 5–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673x8801600101.

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14

Catlett, Judith L., and Ralph Arthur Johnson. "Alabama Labor Union Members In The 1984 Presidential Election." Southeastern Political Review 14, no. 2 (2008): 139–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.1986.tb00041.x.

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15

Cooper, John W. "Choosing Our King: Religion and the 1984 Presidential Election." Teaching Political Science 14, no. 2 (1987): 74–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00922013.1987.9942418.

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16

Ahlering, Robert F. "Need for cognition, attitudes, and the 1984 Presidential election." Journal of Research in Personality 21, no. 1 (1987): 100–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0092-6566(87)90029-8.

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17

Powell, Gary N., and D. Anthony Butterfield. "Is the “Presidential Image” Reserved for Males? Sex-Role Stereotypes and the 1984 Presidential Election." Psychological Reports 61, no. 2 (1987): 491–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1987.61.2.491.

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With the selection of Geraldine Ferraro as a vice presidential candidate and the emergence of the “gender gap” issue in the campaign, the 1984 U.S. presidential election provided a unique opportunity for assessment of the effect of gender on preferences for presidential leadership and perceptions of candidates. 277 college students ( Mdn age: 20 yr.) described a Good President, Good Vice-president, Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale, George Bush, or Ferraro on the revised Bern Sex-role Inventory shortly before the election. The Good President, Good Vice-president, and all candidates except Mondale were seen as more masculine than feminine. In that Reagan was seen as higher in masculinity and lower in femininity than Mondale, results were confirmed by the outcome of the election. However, Ferraro was the only candidate who fitted the Good President profile in both masculinity and femininity. Men and women differed in their perceptions of Reagan and Mondale, supporting the gender-gap hypothesis.

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18

Archer, J. C., G. T. Murauskas, F. M. Shelley, P. J. Taylor, and E. R. White. "COUNTIES, STATES, SECTIONS, AND PARTIES IN THE 1984 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION." Professional Geographer 37, no. 3 (1985): 279–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0033-0124.1985.00279.x.

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19

Margolis, Michael. "The 1984 Presidential Campaign and the Future of Election Studies." Congress & the Presidency 12, no. 2 (1985): 111–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07343468509507981.

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20

Schlichting, Kurt C. "Democratic Incumbents and the 1984 Presidential Election: A Case Study." Public Opinion Quarterly 53, no. 1 (1989): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/269142.

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21

JACKSON, ROBERT A., and THOMAS M. CARSEY. "Presidential Voting Across the American States." American Politics Quarterly 27, no. 4 (1999): 379–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673x99027004001.

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In this article, we examine the variation in the importance of partisanship and ideology in structuring citizens' presidential vote choice across the United States. We use CBS/ New York Times Exit Polls from 18 states in 1984 and 24 states in 1988, along with the national polls from each year. Underlying national survey-based examinations of presidential voting (e.g., those based on the American National Election Studies) is the assumption that presidential voting “looks and works the same” across the United States. However, our results indicate marked variation in the influence of both partisanship and ideology on presidential vote choice across state electorates. Political characteristics of state electorates (e.g., mass polarization and mass liberalism) provide some insight into these differences. Furthermore, we discover some continuity from 1984 to 1988 within states in the nature of influences on their electorates' presidential voting.

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22

Fernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes, and Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes Fernandes. "Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo." Organizações & Sociedade 26, no. 88 (2019): 114–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1984-9260886.

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Abstract This paper uses a new data panel of 625 Brazilian municipalities over 5 election years to analyze the influence of the local level economic performance on the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent in national elections. We examine municipalities from the State of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state, using fixed-effects and random- effects models. The results suggest that the performance of the local economy is relevant in the national elections. Apart from that, the results also suggest that the mayors play an important role in the national elections when it comes to transfer votes that are favorable to the coalition in power and that the richest municipalities tend to be more opposition prone.

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23

Hershey, Marjorie Randon. "The Constructed Explanation: Interpreting Election Results in the 1984 Presidential Race." Journal of Politics 54, no. 4 (1992): 943–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2132104.

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24

Cuzán, Alfred G. "The Campbell Collection of Presidential Election Forecasts, 1984–2016: A Review." PS: Political Science & Politics 54, no. 1 (2020): 99–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096520001341.

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25

Norris, Pippa. "Retrospective Voting in the 1984 Presidential Election: Peace, Prosperity and Patriotism." Political Studies 35, no. 2 (1987): 289–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.1987.tb01889.x.

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26

Moreland, Laurence W., and Robert P. Steed. "Introduction: The 2004 Presidential Election and Southern Politics." American Review of Politics 26 (April 1, 2005): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2005.26.0.1-23.

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We are pleased to serve as guest editors of this special double issue of The American Review of Politics. The articles, which follow all, relate to how the 2004 presidential election played out in the eleven states of the Old Confederacy and, at least by implication, to how partisan change in these states has impacted national politics. This series of articles largely reflects the concept and format of the series of five volumes, all published by Praeger Publishers, which we began with the 1984 presidential election. The first three of these volumes were coedited by us together with our friend and colleague, the late Tod A. Baker, with the last two volumes edited by us after Tod’s retirement.1 In all five volumes in the series, our contributors sought to place southern politics in the context of national politics, and they worked to provide insights into a politically increasingly important region of the country where partisan change since the 1960s has been pervasive across the region and where it has had powerful implications for the Republican Party and, in turn, our nation’s politics.

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27

Abramowitz, Alan I., David J. Lanoue, and Subha Ramesh. "Economic Conditions, Causal Attributions, and Political Evaluations in the 1984 Presidential Election." Journal of Politics 50, no. 4 (1988): 848–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2131382.

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28

Millman, Mary M. "THE 1984 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: REACTIONS OF THE FRANCOPHONE PRESS IN QUEBEC." Contemporary French Civilization 10, no. 2 (1986): 210–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3828/cfc.1986.10.2.002.

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29

Graham, Hugh Davis, Robert P. Steed, Laurence W. Moreland, and Tod A. Baker. "The 1984 Presidential Election in the South: Patterns of Southern Party Politics." Journal of Southern History 53, no. 2 (1987): 347. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2209132.

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30

Juravich, Tom, and Peter R. Shergold. "The Impact of Unions on the Voting Behavior of Their Members." ILR Review 41, no. 3 (1988): 374–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/001979398804100303.

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Based on a survey of members of AFL-CIO-affiliated unions in Pennsylvania, this paper investigates the influence of unions on how their members voted in the 1984 Presidential election. The authors find that unions had little effect on the number of members who voted but surprisingly strong influence on the Presidential choice of those who did vote. Union members who actively participated in their union, held union leadership positions, and reported that they had received literature or telephone calls about the election from their union were significantly more likely than other members to support the candidate endorsed by their union (Mondale). The electronic media influenced voting behavior significantly, but traditional forms of union communication were more influential than many believe.

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31

Prysby, Charles. "The Newest Southerners: Generational Differences in Electoral Behavior in the Contemporary South." American Review of Politics 36, no. 1 (2017): 54–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-779x.2017.36.1.54-74.

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Young voters contributed disproportionately to Barack Obama’s presidential victory in 2012. In fact, if the electorate had been limited to those over 30 years old, Mitt Romney might be in the White House today. Obama captured 60 percent of the vote of those under 30, compared to 49 percent of those over 30, according to the national exit polls (Schier and Box- Steffensmeier 2013, 86). A similar pattern characterized the 2008 presidential election: Obama won 66 percent of the vote among those aged 29 or less, but under one-half of voters older than 45 (Pomper 2010, 53). The tendency for younger voters to be disproportionately Democratic emerged in the 2004 presidential election. Prior to that, Democratic presidential candidates did not consistently do better among younger voters. In 2000, for example, Al Gore did as well among older voters as he did among younger voters, and in 1992, Bill Clinton did his best among older voters, as did Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988 (Pomper 2001, 138; Pomper 1989, 133).

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32

Furlong, William L. "Panama: The Difficult Transition Towards Democracy." Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 35, no. 3 (1993): 19–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/165968.

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It should come as no surprise that Panama is experiencing difficult times in the attempt to recast its political system, long under military control (1968-1989), into a functioning democracy. The military came to power in 1968 by ousting President Arnulfo Arias from his elected office — and not for the first time: they had also deposed him on two previous occasions, in 1941 and again in 1951. Following the 1968 coup, the military regime allowed no more presidential elections until the 1980s when, presumably, it felt its position sufficiently secure. However, those elections were neither honest, open, nor democratic. In May 1984, when Arnulfo Arias won the election, he was — again — deprived of the presidency when the military altered the results of the vote. When the next presidential elections were held, in 1989, General Manuel Antonio Noriega once more cancelled the results after his efforts to falsify the voting count failed.

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33

Hershey, Marjorie Randon. "The Meaning of a Mandate: Interpretations of "Mandate" in 1984 Presidential Election Coverage." Polity 27, no. 2 (1994): 225–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3235174.

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34

HARRISON, TERESA M., TIMOTHY D. STEPHEN, WILLIAM HUSSON, and B. J. FEHR. "Images Versus Issues in the 1984 Presidential Election Differences Between Men and Women." Human Communication Research 18, no. 2 (1991): 209–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2958.1991.tb00544.x.

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35

Jelen, Ted G. "The Effects of Religious Separatism on White Protestants in the 1984 Presidential Election." Sociological Analysis 48, no. 1 (1987): 30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3711681.

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36

Lipset, Seymour Martin. "The Elections, the Economy and Public Opinion: 1984." PS: Political Science & Politics 18, no. 01 (1985): 28–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096500021260.

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Many commentaries on the recent American elections conclude that the United States has taken a long-term move to the right. This shift seemingly began in the late sixties as a reaction to the turmoil occasioned by militant, sometimes violent protest tactics used by the civil rights and antiwar movements, and by the sharp challenge to traditional values encompassed in the changes in family and sex behavior, dress styles, the increased use of drugs, and the like. The Republicans have been victorious in four out of the last five presidential elections, those held from 1968 on. Only one of these, that in 1968, was close, but in that contest a right-wing and racist candidate, George Wallace, received 13 percent. The one election of the five which the Democrats won, that in 1976, was the first one after Richard Nixon's resignation following the Watergate scandal.Yet the conclusion that America has been in a conservative mood for some time is challenged by the results of the races for Congress and state offices and by the findings of the opinion polls. In 1984, in the same election in which Ronald Reagan received 59 percent of the vote, eight percent more than in 1980, his party lost two seats in the Senate and gained only 14 in the much larger House, leaving it behind the Democrats by 252 to 183. The Democrats still hold 34 of the 50 governorships, down by only one. Judged by which party holds most electoral offices, the Democrats remain the majority party.

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37

Jerôme, Bruno, and Véronique Jerôme-Speziari. "Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model." PS: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 04 (2012): 663–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000972.

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Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term during difficult economic times. After hitting a high of 10% in October 2009, the nation's unemployment rate decreased to 8.2% in May 2012. Nonetheless, this is still 0.7 percentage point higher than what Ronald Reagan faced in 1984 or what confronted George H.W. Bush in 1992 as they ran for their second terms. Looking at measures of presidential popularity for the month of May since 1980, Barack Obama's approval rating is at 46% in the Gallup polls, which is the third-worst rating after George W. Bush (30% in 2008) and George H.W. Bush (39.4% in 1992). Given Barack Obama's approval rating and the current national unemployment level, must we conclude that Barack Obama is irremediably on the ropes against Mitt Romney in 2012?

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38

Williams, John T. "The Political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy." American Political Science Review 84, no. 3 (1990): 767–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1962766.

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Conventional wisdom and some research indicate that macroeconomic policies follow cycles corresponding to political, as well as economic, forces. Using vector autoregression analysis, I test three models of monetary policy determination for the United States, 1953–1984: the electoral cycle model (that reelection motivations on the part of presidents create a policy cycle), the party differences model (that policy changes reflect revolving presidential party administrations), and the referendum model (that changes in presidential approval create, in effect, a continuing referendum, allowing presidents to monitor their success and change macroeconomic policies when necessary). Analysis shows that monetary policies, as measured by the monetary base and short-term interest rates, respond to the election cycle and presidential approval (although the effect on macroeconomic outcomes is ambiguous). Party differences are found in real income but are not very significant in other variables.

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39

Miller, Arthur H., Martin P. Wattenberg, and Oksana Malanchuk. "Schematic Assessments of Presidential Candidates." American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (1986): 521–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1958272.

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This article applies theories of social cognition in an investigation of the dimensions of the assessments of candidates employed by voters in the United States. An empirical description of the public's cognitive representations of presidential candidates, derived from responses to open-ended questions in the American National Election Studies from 1952 to 1984, reveals that perceptions of candidates are generally focused on “personality” characteristics rather than on issue concerns or partisan group connections. Contrary to the implications of past research, higher education is found to be correlated with a greater likelihood of using personality categories rather than with making issue statements. While previous models have interpreted voting on the basis of candidate personality as indicative of superficial and idiosyncratic assessments, the data examined here indicate that they predominately reflect performance-relevant criteria such as competence, integrity, and reliability. In addition, both panel and aggregate time series data suggest that the categories that voters have used in the past influence how they will perceive future candidates, implying the application of schematic judgments. The reinterpretation presented here argues that these judgments reflect a rich cognitive representation of the candidates from which instrumental inferences are made.

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40

Archer, J. Clark. "Political geography of contemporary events VI: Some geographical aspects of the American presidential election of 1984." Political Geography Quarterly 4, no. 2 (1985): 159–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0260-9827(85)90005-9.

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41

Steger, Wayne P. "Conditional Arbiters: The Limits of Political Party Influence in Presidential Nominations." PS: Political Science & Politics 49, no. 04 (2016): 709–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096516001694.

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ABSTRACTThe 2016 Republican presidential nomination challenges arguments about political party insiders’ influence on the outcome. This article argues, first, that party insider influence is conditional on the participation, coalescence, and timing of party stakeholders behind a front-runner during the invisible primary, and second, that party insider influence has probably declined since the 2000 presidential election. Data on endorsements by elite elected officials in open presidential nominations from 1984 to 2016 show that party insiders’ participation and convergence of support behind the front-runner is less extensive than what was found by Cohen, Karol, Noel, and Zaller (2008), though the data sets differ. Party insiders participate and unify more readily when the party coalition is stable and there is a candidate in the race who has demonstrable national support. Party elites remain on the sidelines when the party coalition is divided or when there is uncertainty about the appeal of candidates (Ryan 2011; Whitby 2014). The potency of insider endorsements likely has declined with the rise of social media, the changing campaign finance landscape, and the reemergence of populism in each party.

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42

Brady, David W., and Patricia A. Hurley. "The Prospects for Contemporary Partisan Realignment." PS: Political Science & Politics 18, no. 01 (1985): 63–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096500021302.

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With the exception of 1976, all national elections since 1964 have generated commentary among both media analysts and political scientists about the possibility of realignment. Reports have varied from the straightforward—yes or no—to the contrived—realignment has been realized at the presidential but not the congressional level. In this essay, we outline our view of those factors that are necessary for a realignment, and we evaluate the 1984 elections with respect to those factors. Our focus in this analysis is on the tripartite structure of American party systems: party in the electorate, party in government, and party as organization. In addition, we discuss the policy consequences associated with realignments.Theories of RealignmentsSchlesinger (1984: 371) reminds us that “[the parts of parties] are treated as though each leads a life of its own with little attention to what if anything holds them together.” This admonition also holds for students of realignments. One school of thought, centering around the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center, focuses attention on party in the electorate. In this view, a realigning election is one in which the normal party vote shifts from one party to another, and because of the influence of individual partisan identification on electoral outcome, this new majority party dominates elections for a generation or more. This emphasis on the distribution of party identification in the electorate is beneficial in that it gives us an operational definition of realignment and allows us to assess both critical and secular (gradual) realignments.

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43

Parent, T. Wayne, Calvin C. Jillson, and Ronald E. Weber. "Voting Outcomes in the 1984 Democratic Party Primaries and Caucuses." American Political Science Review 81, no. 1 (1987): 67–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1960779.

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Scholarly inquiry concerning influences on electoral outcomes in the presidential nomination process, though extensive, has been conducted almost exclusively with data collected at the individual level of analysis. The Michigan model of normal vote analysis suggests that long-term influences measured at the aggregate level, such as the sociodemographic, economic, and ideological characteristics of the states, are also important in determining electoral outcomes. We present an aggregate-level analysis of state characteristics that affected the Hart, Jackson, and Mondale vote proportions in the 1984 Democratic caucuses and primaries. Our primary election models explain between 65% and 83% of the variance in candidate vote shares, with sociodemographic and economic factors as the leading indicators. In the caucuses, we find that campaign spending and sociodemographic influences are dominant in models that explain between 38% and 81% of the variance. We conclude with a brief discussion of what our findings mean for future Democratic candidates.

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Oguntola Laguda, Danoye. "RELIGION, LEADERSHIP AND STRUGGLE FOR POWER IN NIGERIA: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2011 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA." Studia Historiae Ecclesiasticae 41, no. 2 (2015): 219–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.25159/2412-4265/225.

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The crisis of leadership today in Nigeria provides a formidable challenge to political and other social scientists. Between 1999 and 2015 several elections have been held with many leaders elected and sworn into office; with interactions between religion and politics the ongoing subject of academic analysis (Abubakar 1984; Igboin 2012; Kukah 1998; Oguntola-Laguda 2008; and so forth). Political office holders often drew on religious ideas, practices and symbols as a tool of negotiation with the electorate during political campaigns. As a result, candidates were often selected based on their religious rhetoric and affiliations. Thus the debate about Muslim/Muslim or Muslim/Christian tickets emerged as a key issue in the elections. Religious leaders are often political actors in the elections. There were several media allegations that some religious leaders were complicit in compromising and corrupting the electoral process. Many prophetic statements preceded the 2011 elections. For example, the prominent Pentecostal leader and presidential candidate, Pastor Kris Okotie, the general overseer of Household of God Church in Lagos, prophesied (unsuccessfully) that he would be sworn in as president after the election. In this paper we will examine how political leaders managed (or manipulated) their religious claims and allegiances in the pre- and post-election periods in 2011, against the backdrop of a religiously pluralistic setting such as Nigeria, and the resultant contradictions. Particular attention will be paid to the concepts of power and authority, as these are central to both worlds of religion and politics. Additionally, I will discuss the varying differentiations of the religious and political domains in the political process, campaign speeches, sermons and prophecies, perceptions of individual politicians, as well as media and popular opinion.

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LAVINE, HOWARD, and THOMAS GSCHWEND. "Issues, Party and Character: The Moderating Role of Ideological Thinking on Candidate Evaluation." British Journal of Political Science 37, no. 1 (2006): 139–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123407000075.

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We examine ‘heuristic’ and ‘systematic’ candidate-appraisal strategies within a presidential election context. Controlling for political knowledge, we determine whether individual differences in the capacity for ideological thought condition voters' reliance on the major determinants of candidate choice, increasing reliance on policy considerations and decreasing reliance on the heuristic cue of party identification and on perceptions of candidate character when ideological capacity is high, and exerting the opposite effect – decreasing the role of issues and increasing the role of party identification and candidate qualities – when such capacity is low. Using American National Election Studies data from the 1984–2000 period, we find that ideological thinking consistently heightens voters' reliance on issues and decreases their reliance on candidate cues, but only among voters who report being concerned about the outcome of the election. In contrast, the effect of partisanship is stable across levels of ideological thinking and concern about the campaign. We discuss the cognitive processes by which ideological thinking regulates political choice, and assert its centrality in the political decision-making process.

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Liu, Baodong. "POSTRACIAL POLITICS?" Du Bois Review: Social Science Research on Race 11, no. 2 (2014): 443–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1742058x14000113.

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AbstractThis paper examines the claim that the historical election of Barack Obama demonstrated a new era of postracial politics in America (Ceaser et al., 2009). Drawing on arguments in the recent American political development literature (King and Smith, 2005; Novkov 2008), this research proposes a racial tension theory to link Obama’s White voter support to the deep-seated racial tension at the state level. In doing so, a theoretic and empirical solution is offered to solve the problem of high correlations between the major contextual variables measuring Black density (Key 1949), racial diversity (Hero 1998), state political culture (Elazar 1984), and social capital (Putnam 2000). The converged findings based on multiple methods clearly show that the state-level White support for Obama in both 2008 and 2012 was directly related to the racial tension of a state. In contrast, racial tension did not affect the White vote for John Kerry, the Democratic nominee in the 2004 Presidential election.

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Sutton, David. "The 1984 Presidential Election in the South: Patterns of Southern Party Politics.Robert P. Steed , Laurence W. Moreland , Tod A. Baker." Journal of Politics 49, no. 2 (1987): 610–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2131320.

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Fazio, Russell H., and Carol J. Williams. "Attitude accessibility as a moderator of the attitude–perception and attitude–behavior relations: An investigation of the 1984 presidential election." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51, no. 3 (1986): 505–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.3.505.

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Kaiser, Florian G., and Mark Wilson. "The Campbell Paradigm as a Behavior-Predictive Reinterpretation of the Classical Tripartite Model of Attitudes." European Psychologist 24, no. 4 (2019): 359–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1016-9040/a000364.

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Abstract. In this article, we introduce the “Campbell Paradigm” as a novel variant of Rosenberg and Hovland’s (1960) tripartite model of attitudes. The Campbell Paradigm is based on a highly restricted measurement model that speaks of a compensatory relation between a person’s latent attitude and the costs that come with any specific behavior. It overcomes the overarching weakness of the original tripartite model (i.e., its relative irrelevance for actual behavior) and offers a parsimonious explanation for behavior. Even though this seems attractive, we also discuss why the paradigm has not gained momentum in the 50 years since it was originally proposed by Donald T. Campbell. To demonstrate the paradigm’s suitability even when implemented with an unrefined instrument in a domain where it has not been used previously, we apply the paradigm to a classic data example from attitude research from the 1984 US presidential election to account for the electorate’s voting intentions and actual voting behaviors.

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Gunlicks, Arthur B. "Campaign and Party Finance in the West German “Party State”." Review of Politics 50, no. 1 (1988): 30–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0034670500036123.

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In contrast to the United States, where there is little or no public financing of parties and candidates below the presidential level, the German “party state” grants generous subsidies in a variety of forms to the political parties, though not to individual candidates. The German Basic Law (constitution), various laws passed by the national and Land (state) parliaments, and the Federal Constitutional Court have been important factors in the development of a complex and costly system of public financing for election campaigns, parliamentary parties and party foundations and for free television and radio time and billboard advertising space. In addition, the federal government incurs large tax expenditures through the encouragement of tax deductible contributions to political parties. In spite of the crucial role which public financing has assumed, recent scandals have occurred involving illegal contributions from business interests. A revised party law of 1984 and a Federal Constitutional Court decision in July 1986 have brought about significant changes, but controversy in Germany over public financing and the impact of recent reforms continues.

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