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Journal articles on the topic '2000-2050'
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1
Portney, Paul R. "Environmental Problems and Policy: 2000–2050." Journal of Economic Perspectives 14, no. 1 (February 1, 2000): 199–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.1.199.
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The next 50 years will see more use of market-based tools for environmental protection. Regulatory authorities everywhere will require polluters to report emissions. Authority will leak away from national governments; some will be devolved to lower levels of government, but some will be lost to international bodies. Environmental conditions will continue to improve steadily in developed countries. The developing countries will be less fortunate; at least until rising incomes provide the impetus for stricter standards. Some losses will be irreversible, as with species that are extinguished.
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Itzkoff, Seymour W. "The Future of the World 2000-2050." Mankind Quarterly 44, no. 3 (2004): 385–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.46469/mq.2004.44.3.9.
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Ananta, Aris, Evi Nurvidya Arifin, and Bakhtiar. "ETHNICITY AND AGEING IN INDONESIA, 2000–2050." Asian Population Studies 1, no. 2 (July 2005): 227–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17441730500317477.
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Han, Jiarui, Li Li, Shenshen Su, Jing Wu, Xuekun Fang, Shenglan Jia, Jianbo Zhang, and Jianxin Hu. "Estimated HCFC-142b emissions in China: 2000–2050." Chinese Science Bulletin 59, no. 24 (April 10, 2014): 3046–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-014-0337-z.
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Wisła, Rafał, Katarzyna Filipowicz, and Tomasz Tokarski. "Diversification of economic development of EU countries on the basis of gravity growth model." Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 63, no. 7 (July 27, 2018): 37–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.0680.
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The aim of the article is to present the differentiation of economic development of the European Union countries in the years 2000—2015 and to simulate changes in labour productivity in the perspective of 2050. Two macroeconomic aggregates describing dynamics of development processes, i.e. labour productivity and capital-labour ratio, connected with the so-called gravity effects were used in the research. It was based on data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). The results lead to the formulation of two key conclusions. Firstly, assuming that the average investment rate from 2000—2015, 2000—2008 and 2009—2015 is maintained in the perspective until 2050, the strongest annual average dynamics of labour productivity changes is observed in the countries belonging to the post-communist group. Secondly, the adoption, for the 2016—2050 period, of the average investment rate for the entire EU economy for 2000—2015, 2000—2008 and 2009—2015, will lead to the assumption that in 2050 the productivity of large groups of analysed countries will be shaped at a very similar level.
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Naumovski, Louie, Mint Sirisawad, Philip Lecane, Jason Ramos, Darren Magda, Zhong Wang, Patti Thiemann, et al. "Sapphyrins Exhibit Tumor Selectivity and Efficacy in Animal Models of Hematologic Malignancies." Blood 104, no. 11 (November 16, 2004): 2501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v104.11.2501.2501.
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Abstract Sapphyrins are pentapyrrolic metal-free expanded porphyrins that localize to tumors. We have previously demonstrated that sapphyrins induce apoptosis in a variety of hematologic tumor cell lines including lymphomas (Ramos, DHL-4, HF-1), leukemias (Jurkat, HL-60), and myelomas (8226/S, 1-310, C2E3, 1-414). Through chemical modification of the parent compound, PCI-2000, a number of derivatives were generated and tested for induction of apoptosis in Ramos cells. PCI-2000 and one of the more potent apoptosis-inducing derivatives, PCI-2050, were injected into CD-1 nude mice bearing Ramos xenografts. Animals were sacrificed 48 hrs after injection and analyzed for drug uptake in the tumor, liver and spleen using flow cytometry. For PCI-2000, the relative uptake was spleen>tumor>liver. For PCI-2050 the relative uptake was tumor>spleen>liver, suggesting that PCI-2050 preferentially localizes in tumors compared to PCI-2000. Tumor cells isolated from PCI-2050 treated animals grew less well in culture and had more apoptotic cells than those derived from PCI-2000 or control animals. Uptake of PCI-2050 into xenograft tumor cells and tumor cell killing was dose dependent. PCI-2050 (10 umol/kg x 2 days in a row) was administered to Ramos xenograft bearing animals that were then monitored for tumor growth. In both minimal tumor (animals treated before tumor was palpable) and established tumor (palpable tumor) models, PCI-2050 reduced tumor growth by 60–75%. Alternative dosing strategies revealed that split dosing (allowing 1 or more days between doses) was more efficacious in tumor control than dosing 2 days in a row. At the doses used in this study, there was no myelosuppression or lymphosuppression, hepatic or renal abnormalities as assessed by complete blood count and comprehensive serum chemistry analysis, respectively. Our work demonstrates that PCI-2050 induces apoptosis in tissue culture and inhibits tumor growth in an animal tumor model while exhibiting minimal toxicity. PCI-2050 and other sapphyrin derivatives will be further evaluated as potential anti-cancer agents.
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Blaas, Harry, and Carolien Kroeze. "Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus in European rivers: 2000–2050." Ecological Indicators 67 (August 2016): 328–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.03.004.
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McDonald, Peter, and Rebecca Kippen. "Labor Supply Prospects in 16 Developed Countries, 2000-2050." Population and Development Review 27, no. 1 (March 2001): 1–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00001.x.
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Demeny, Paul, and Geoffrey McNicoll. "The Political Demography of the World System, 2000-2050." Population and Development Review 32, S1 (December 2006): 254–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.tb00010.x.
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Bouwman, A. F., A. H. W. Beusen, J. Griffioen, J. W. Van Groenigen, M. M. Hefting, O. Oenema, P. J. T. M. Van Puijenbroek, S. Seitzinger, C. P. Slomp, and E. Stehfest. "Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N 2 O emissions." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368, no. 1621 (July 5, 2013): 20130112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0112.
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Soil nitrogen (N) budgets are used in a global, distributed flow-path model with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, representing denitrification and N 2 O emissions from soils, groundwater and riparian zones for the period 1900–2000 and scenarios for the period 2000–2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Total agricultural and natural N inputs from N fertilizers, animal manure, biological N 2 fixation and atmospheric N deposition increased from 155 to 345 Tg N yr −1 (Tg = teragram; 1 Tg = 10 12 g) between 1900 and 2000. Depending on the scenario, inputs are estimated to further increase to 408–510 Tg N yr −1 by 2050. In the period 1900–2000, the soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal by plants) increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr −1 , and this may remain stable or further increase to 275 Tg yr −1 by 2050, depending on the scenario. N 2 production from denitrification increased from 52 to 96 Tg yr −1 between 1900 and 2000, and N 2 O–N emissions from 10 to 12 Tg N yr −1 . The scenarios foresee a further increase to 142 Tg N 2 –N and 16 Tg N 2 O–N yr −1 by 2050. Our results indicate that riparian buffer zones are an important source of N 2 O contributing an estimated 0.9 Tg N 2 O–N yr −1 in 2000. Soils are key sites for denitrification and are much more important than groundwater and riparian zones in controlling the N flow to rivers and the oceans.
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Félix da Silva, Leandro, and Vitor Matheus Bacani. "Detecção de mudanças e modelagem preditiva do uso da terra e cobertura vegetal do Pantanal de Aquidauana, MS." GEOUSP: Espaço e Tempo (Online) 22, no. 2 (June 21, 2018): 437–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.11606/issn.2179-0892.geousp.2018.134659.
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Este estudo tem por objetivo analisar as mudanças ocorridas no uso da terra e cobertura vegetal entre os anos de 1984, 1993, 2000, 2015, e simular um cenário futuro para o ano de 2050. Os métodos utilizados para simulação do cenário futuro para o ano de 2050 foram os baseados no Processo Analítico Hierárquico (AHP) combinado com o modelo CA Markov (Cadeia de Markov e Autômatos Celulares). O modelo elaborado para o ano de 2050 apresentou 4 (quatro) classes que são: 1) Vegetação Nativa, 2) Pastagem Plantada, 3) Solo Exposto e 4) Corpos d’água. A análise multitemporal utilizando os mapas de 1984, 1993, 2000, 2015 e o modelo simulado para 2050 apontou que ao longo dos anos analisados haverá uma tendência de redução de áreas naturais como vegetação natural e de corpos d’água e o aumento das áreas relacionadas às ações antrópicas como pastagem plantada e solo exposto.
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Pelletier, N., and P. Tyedmers. "Forecasting potential global environmental costs of livestock production 2000-2050." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, no. 43 (October 4, 2010): 18371–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1004659107.
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Jiang, H., H. Liao, H. O. T. Pye, S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, J. H. Seinfeld, and X. Zhang. "Projected effect of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 13, no. 3 (March 11, 2013): 6501–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-6501-2013.
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Abstract. We investigate the 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 at 4° × 5° resolution. Future changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together through sensitivity simulations. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) aerosols, concentrations of individual aerosol species change by −2.3 to +1.7 μg m−3 and PM2.5 levels are projected to change by about 10–20% in eastern China as a result of 2000–2050 change in climate alone. With future changes in anthropogenic emissions alone, concentrations of sulfate, BC, and OC are simulated to decrease because of reductions in emissions, and those of nitrate are predicted to increase because of higher NOx emissions combined with decreases in sulfate. The net result is a reduction of seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China by 2–9.5 μg m−3 (or 10–30%) over 2000–2050. It is noted that current emission inventories for BC and OC over China are found to be inadequate at present. Transboundary fluxes of different aerosol species show different sensitivities to future changes in climate and emissions. The annual outflow of PM2.5 from eastern China to the western Pacific is estimated to change by −6.0%, −1.5%, and −9.0% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. The fluxes of nitrate and ammonium aerosols from Europe and Central Asia into western China increase over 2000–2050 by changes in emissions, leading to a 15% increase in annual inflow of PM2.5 to western China with future changes in both emissions and climate. Fluxes of BC and OC from South Asia to China in spring contribute to a large fraction of the annual inflow of PM2.5. The annual inflow of PM2.5 from South Asia and Southeast Asia to China is estimated to change by −55%, +133%, and +63% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. While the 4° × 5° spatial resolution is a limitation of the present study, the direction of predicted changes in aerosol levels and transboundary fluxes still provides valuable insight into future air quality.
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Jiang, H., H. Liao, H. O. T. Pye, S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, J. H. Seinfeld, and X. Y. Zhang. "Projected effect of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no. 16 (August 16, 2013): 7937–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7937-2013.
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Abstract. We investigate projected 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 at 4° × 5° resolution. Future changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together through sensitivity simulations. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) aerosols, concentrations of individual aerosol species change by −1.5 to +0.8 μg m−3, and PM2.5 levels are projected to change by about 10–20% in eastern China as a result of 2000–2050 change in climate alone. With future changes in anthropogenic emissions alone, concentrations of sulfate, BC, and OC are simulated to decrease because of assumed reductions in emissions, and those of nitrate are predicted to increase because of higher NOx emissions combined with decreases in sulfate. The net result is a predicted reduction of seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China by 1–8 μg m−3 (or 10–40%) over 2000–2050. It is noted that current emission inventories for BC and OC over China are judged to be inadequate at present. Transboundary fluxes of different aerosol species show different sensitivities to future changes in climate and emissions. The annual outflow of PM2.5 from eastern China to the western Pacific is estimated to change by −7.0%, −0.7%, and −9.0% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. The fluxes of nitrate and ammonium aerosols from Europe and Central Asia into western China increase over 2000–2050 in response to projected changes in emissions, leading to a 10.5% increase in annual inflow of PM2.5 to western China with future changes in both emissions and climate. Fluxes of BC and OC from South Asia to China in spring contribute a large fraction of the annual inflow of PM2.5. The annual inflow of PM2.5 from South Asia and Southeast Asia to China is estimated to change by −8%, +281%, and +227% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. While the 4° × 5° spatial resolution is a limitation of the present study, the direction of predicted changes in aerosol levels and transboundary fluxes still provides valuable insight into future air quality.
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Jawarneh, Rana N. "Modeling Past, Present, and Future Urban Growth Impacts on Primary Agricultural Land in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan Using SLEUTH (1972–2050)." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 4 (April 1, 2021): 212. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10040212.
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Urban expansion and loss of primarily agricultural land are two of the challenges facing Jordan. Located in the most productive agricultural area of Jordan, Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM) uncontrolled urban growth has posed a grand challenge in both sustaining its prime croplands and developing comprehensive planning strategies. This study investigated the loss of agricultural land for urban growth in GIM from 1972–2050 and denoted the negative consequences of the amalgamation process of 2001 on farmland loss. The aim is to unfold and track historical land use/cover changes and forecast these changes to the future using a modified SLEUTH-3r urban growth model. The accuracy of prediction results was assessed in three different sites between 2015 and 2020. In 43 years the built-up area increased from 29.2 km2 in 1972 to 71 km2 in 2015. By 2050, the built-up urban area would increase to 107 km2. The overall rate of increase, however, showed a decline across the study period, with the periods of 1990–2000 and 2000–2015 having the highest rate of built-up areas expansion at 68.6 and 41.4%, respectively. While the agricultural area increased from 178 km2 in 1972 to 207 km2 in 2000, it decreased to 195 km2 in 2015 and would continue to decrease to 188 km2 by 2050. The district-level analysis shows that from 2000–2015, the majority of districts exhibited an urban increase at twice the rate of 1990–2000. The results of the net change analysis of agriculture show that between 1990 and 2000, 9 districts exhibited a positive gain in agricultural land while the rest of the districts showed a negative loss of agricultural land. From 2000 to 2015, the four districts of Naser, Nozha, Rawdah, and Hashmyah completely lost their agricultural areas for urbanization. By 2050, Idoon and Boshra districts will likely lose more than half of their high-quality agricultural land. This study seeks to utilize a spatially explicit urban growth model to support sustainable planning policies for urban land use through forecasting. The implications from this study confirm the worldwide urbanization impacts on losing the most productive agricultural land in the outskirts and consequences on food production and food security. The study calls for urgent actions to adopt a compact growth policy with no new land added for development as what is available now exceeds what is needed by 2050 to accommodate urban growth in GIM.
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Zhao, Jingzhu, Qishan Luo, Hongbing Deng, and Yan Yan. "Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363, no. 1492 (August 31, 2007): 893–904. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.2190.
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This paper introduces the concepts and aims of sustainable agriculture in China. Sustainable agricultural development comprises sustainability of agricultural production, sustainability of the rural economy, ecological and environmental sustainability within agricultural systems and sustainability of rural society. China's prime aim is to ensure current and future food security. Based on projections of China's population, its economy, societal factors and agricultural resources and inputs between 2000 and 2050, total grain supply and demand has been predicted and the state of food security analysed. Total and per capita demand for grain will increase continuously. Total demand will reach 648 Mt in 2020 and 700 Mt in 2050, while total grain yield of cultivated land will reach 470 Mt in 2010, 585 Mt in 2030 and 656 Mt in 2050. The per capita grain production will be around 360 kg in the period 2000–2030 and reach 470 kg in 2050. When productivities of cultivated land and other agricultural resources are all taken into consideration, China's food self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 94.4% in 2000 to 101.3% in 2030, suggesting that China will meet its future demand for food and need for food security. Despite this positive assessment, the country's sustainable agricultural development has encountered many obstacles. These include: agricultural water-use shortage; cultivated land loss; inappropriate usage of fertilizers and pesticides, and environmental degradation.
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Wancata, Johannes, M. Musalek, R. Alexandrowicz, and M. Krautgartner. "Number of dementia sufferers in Europe between the years 2000 and 2050." European Psychiatry 18, no. 6 (October 2003): 306–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eurpsy.2003.03.003.
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AbstractSeveral authors have pointed out that in the next few decades dementia will affect a considerably increasing number of the elderly. To our knowledge there exist no calculations of the number of demented persons for the whole European region. We made calculations on the number of dementia cases for the period 2000–2050 based on the population projections of the United Nations. For this purpose, we used the results of several meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. The number of prevalent dementia cases in the year 2000 was 7.1 million. Within the next 50 years, this number will rise to about 16.2 million dementia sufferers. The number of new dementia cases per year will increase from about 1.9 million in the year 2000 to about 4.1 million in the year 2050. Contrarily, the working-age population will considerably decrease during the next 50 years. In the year 2000, 7.1 million dementia cases faced 493 million persons in working-age. This equals a ratio of 69.4 persons in working-age per one demented person. Until the year 2050, this ratio will decrease to only 21.1. Thus, the financial and emotional burden placed by dementia on the working-age population will markedly rise.
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Attané, Isabelle. "The Demographic Impact of a Female Deficit in China, 2000?2050." Population and Development Review 32, no. 4 (December 2006): 755–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00149.x.
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Friedman, S. H. "Agents and IPOs: A retrospective of my academic career (2000-2050)." Science 286, no. 5446 (December 3, 1999): 1870–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.286.5446.1870.
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Hodnebrog, Ø., T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, et al. "Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no. 8 (August 20, 2012): 20975–1012. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-20975-2012.
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Abstract. The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario. As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000. Radiative Forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a~marginal cooling of −0.38 ± 13 mW m−2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of −32 ± 8.9 (B1) or −31 ± 20 mW m−2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from −20 ± 5.4 mW m−2 in 2000 to −31 ± 4.8 (B1) or −40 ± 11 mW m−2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 13 ± 7.9 mW m−2 in 2000 to a slightly negative net RF of −2.9 ± 1.7 (B1) or −3.3 ± 3.8 (A1B) mW m−2 in the middle of this century. The negative net RF from ROAD is temporary and induced by the strong decline in ROAD emissions prior to 2050, which only affects the methane cooling term due to the longer lifetime of CH4 compared to O3. The O3 RF from AIR in 2050 is strongly dependent on scenario and ranges from 19 ± 6.8 (B1 ACARE) to 62 ± 13.6 mW m−2 (A1B). There is also a considerable span in the net RF from AIR in 2050, ranging from −0.54 ± 4.6 (B1 ACARE) to 12 ± 11 (A1B) mW m−2 compared to 6.5 ± 2.1 mW m−2 in 2000.
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Hodnebrog, Ø., T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, et al. "Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 24 (December 21, 2012): 12211–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012.
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Abstract. The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario. As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000. Radiative forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a marginal cooling of −0.44 ± 13 mW m−2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of −32 ± 9.3 (B1) or −32 ± 18 mW m−2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from −19 ± 5.3 mW m−2 in 2000 to −31 ± 4.8 (B1) or −40 ± 9 mW m−2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 12 ± 8.5 mW m−2 in 2000 to a slightly negative net RF of −3.1 ± 2.2 (B1) or −3.1 ± 3.4 (A1B) mW m−2 in the middle of this century. The negative net RF from ROAD is temporary and induced by the strong decline in ROAD emissions prior to 2050, which only affects the methane cooling term due to the longer lifetime of CH4 compared to O3. The O3 RF from AIR in 2050 is strongly dependent on scenario and ranges from 19 ± 6.8 (B1 ACARE) to 61 ± 14 mW m−2 (A1B). There is also a considerable span in the net RF from AIR in 2050, ranging from −0.54 ± 4.6 (B1 ACARE) to 12 ± 11 (A1B) mW m−2 compared to 6.6 ± 2.2 mW m−2 in 2000.
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Hu, Dingzhu, Yipeng Guo, Feiyang Wang, Qi Xu, Yuanpu Li, Wenjun Sang, Xudong Wang, and Meichen Liu. "Brewer–Dobson Circulation: Recent-Past and Near-Future Trends Simulated by Chemistry-Climate Models." Advances in Meteorology 2017 (2017): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2913895.
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Based on data from 16 chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and separate experimental results using a state-of-the-art CCM, the trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) during the second half of the 20th century (1960–2000) and the first half of the 21st century (2001–2050) are examined. From the ensemble mean of the CCMs, the BDC exhibits strengthening trends in both the 20th and 21st centuries; however, the acceleration rates of tropical upwelling and southern downwelling during 2001–2050 are smaller than those during 1960–2000, while the acceleration rate of the northern downward branch of the BDC during 2001–2050 is slightly larger than that during 1960–2000. The differences in the extratropical downwelling trends between the two periods are closely related to changes in planetary-wave propagation into the stratosphere caused by the combined effects of increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and changes in stratospheric ozone. Model simulations demonstrate that the response of southern downwelling to stratospheric ozone depletion is larger than that to the increase in GHGs, but that the latter plays a more important role in the strengthening of northern downwelling. This result suggests that, under the expected future climate, northern downwelling will play a more important role in balancing tropical upwelling.
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Hodnebrog, Ø., T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, et al. "Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH – an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 11, no. 6 (June 16, 2011): 16801–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-16801-2011.
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Abstract. The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5 %, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved. Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppb (scaled to 100 %) over the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, ship-induced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12 % near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 105 molecules cm−3 and 30 %, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92(±0.48) % on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH4 lifetime is 8.0(±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68(±0.47) % in 2000. Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NOx molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppb at northern mid- and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during northern winter (January) with a contribution of 4.2 %. Although the aviation-induced impact on OH is lower than for shipping, it still causes a reduction in the relative methane lifetime of 1.68(±0.38) % in 2050 B1. However, for B1 ACARE the perturbation is reduced to 1.17(±0.28) %, which is lower than the year 2000 estimate of 1.30(±0.30) %. Based on the fully scaled perturbations we calculate net radiative forcings from the six models taking into account ozone, methane (including stratospheric water vapour), and methane-induced ozone changes. For the B1 scenario, shipping leads to a net cooling with radiative forcings of −28.0(±5.1) and −30.8(±4.8) mW m−2 in 2025 and 2050, respectively, due to the large impact on OH and thereby methane lifetime reductions. Corresponding values for the aviation sector shows a net warming effect with 3.8(±6.1) and 1.9(±6.3) mW m−2, respectively, but with a small net cooling of −0.6(±4.6) mW m−2 for B1 ACARE in 2050.
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Jorm, Anthony F., Keith B. G. Dear, and Nicole M. Burgess. "Projections of Future Numbers of Dementia Cases in Australia with and Without Prevention." Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry 39, no. 11-12 (November 2005): 959–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/j.1440-1614.2005.01713.x.
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Objective: To produce projections of the number of dementia cases in Australia from 2000 to 2050. These projections examine the effects of an ageing population on number of dementia cases and also the potential impact of preventive strategies that delay age of dementia onset. Method: Data from several meta-analyses of dementia prevalence and incidence were combined with age-specific population projections to arrive at estimates of future numbers of cases. A statistical model of dementia incidence was developed and used to estimate the effects of delaying onset by up to 5 years. Results: Without prevention, prevalence of dementia is estimated to increase from 172 000 in 2000 to 588 000 in 2050. Over the same period, the incidence of dementia is estimated to increase from 43 000 to 143 000 new cases a year. Delaying onset by 5 years would decrease prevalence in 2050 by 44%. Even a 6-month delay would reduce prevalence by 6%. Conclusions: Ageing of the population will lead to a rapid increase in number of dementia cases and an increasing burden for the working-age population. However, even modest prevention efforts could lessen the impact.
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Badriana, Mochamad Riam, and Han Soo Lee. "Multimodel Ensemble Projections of Wave Climate in the Western North Pacific Using CMIP6 Marine Surface Winds." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no. 8 (July 31, 2021): 835. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse9080835.
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For decades, the western North Pacific (WNP) has been commonly indicated as a region with high vulnerability to oceanic and atmospheric hazards. This phenomenon can be observed through general circulation model (GCM) output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The CMIP consists of a collection of ensemble data as well as marine surface winds for the projection of the wave climate. Wave climate projections based on the CMIP dataset are necessary for ocean studies, marine forecasts, and coastal development over the WNP region. Numerous studies with earlier phases of CMIP are abundant, but studies using CMIP6 as the recent dataset for wave projection is still limited. Thus, in this study, wave climate projections with WAVEWATCH III are conducted to investigate how wave characteristics in the WNP will have changed in 2050 and 2100 compared to those in 2000 with atmospheric forcings from CMIP6 marine surface winds. The wave model runs with a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution in spherical coordinates and a 10-min time step. A total of eight GCMs from the CMIP6 dataset are used for the marine surface winds modelled over 3 h for 2050 and 2100. The simulated average wave characteristics for 2000 are validated with the ERA5 Reanalysis wave data showing good consistency. The wave characteristics in 2050 and 2100 show that significant decreases in wave height, a clockwise shift in wave direction, and the mean wave period becomes shorter relative to those in 2000.
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Feng, Yongjiu, Zhenkun Lei, Xiaohua Tong, Chen Gao, Shurui Chen, Jiafeng Wang, and Siqin Wang. "Spatially-explicit modeling and intensity analysis of China's land use change 2000–2050." Journal of Environmental Management 263 (June 2020): 110407. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110407.
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Kumar, Aditya, Shiliang Wu, Yaoxian Huang, Hong Liao, and Jed O. Kaplan. "Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000–2050 global change." Atmospheric Environment 173 (January 2018): 6–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.10.061.
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Hodnebrog, Ø., T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, et al. "Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH – an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11, no. 21 (November 14, 2011): 11293–317. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11293-2011.
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Abstract. The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5%, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved. Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppbv (when scaling the response of the 5% emission perturbation to 100% by applying a factor 20) over the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, ship-induced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12% near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 105 molecules cm−3 and 30%, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92 (±0.48) on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH4 lifetime is 8.0 (±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68 (±0.47)% in 2000. Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NOx molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppbv at northern mid- and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during northern winter (January) with a contribution of 4.2%. Although the aviation-induced impact on OH is lower than for shipping, it still causes a reduction in the relative methane lifetime of 1.68 (±0.38)% in 2050 B1. However, for B1 ACARE the perturbation is reduced to 1.17 (±0.28)%, which is lower than the year 2000 estimate of 1.30 (±0.30)%. Based on the fully scaled perturbations we calculate net radiative forcings from the six models taking into account ozone, methane (including stratospheric water vapour), and methane-induced ozone changes. For the B1 scenario, shipping leads to a net cooling with radiative forcings of −28.0 (±5.1) and −30.8 (±4.8) mW m−2 in 2025 and 2050, respectively, due to the large impact on OH and, thereby, methane lifetime reductions. Corresponding values for the aviation sector shows a net warming effect with 3.8 (±6.1) and 1.9 (±6.3) mW m−2, respectively, but with a small net cooling of -0.6 (±4.6) mW m−2 for B1 ACARE in 2050.
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de Marsily, Ghislain. "Will We Soon Run Out of Water?" Annals of Nutrition and Metabolism 76, Suppl. 1 (2020): 10–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000515019.
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In 2000, the World population was 6.2 billion; it reached 7 billion in 2012 and should reach 9.5 billion (±0.4) in 2050 and 11 billion (±1.5) in 2100, according to UN projections. The trend after 2100 is still one of global demographic growth, but after 2060, Africa would be the only continent where the population would still increase. The amount of water consumed annually to produce the food necessary to meet the needs varies greatly between countries, from about 600 to 2,500 m<sup>3</sup>/year per capita, depending on their wealth, their food habits (particularly meat consumption), and the percentage of food waste they generate. In 2000, the total food production was on the order of 3,300 million tons (in cereal equivalents). In 2019, about 0.8 billion inhabitants of the planet still suffer from hunger and do not get the nutrition they need to be in good health or, in the case of children, to grow properly (both physically and intellectually). Assuming a World average water consumption for food of 1,300 m<sup>3</sup>/year per capita in 2000, 1,400 m<sup>3</sup>/year in 2050, and 1,500 m<sup>3</sup>/year in 2100, a volume of water of around 8,200 km<sup>3</sup>/year was needed in 2000, 13,000 km<sup>3</sup>/year will be needed in 2050, and 16,500 km<sup>3</sup>/year in 2100. Will that much water be available on earth? Can there be conflicts related to a food deficit? Some preliminary answers and scenarios for food production will be given from a hydrologist viewpoint.
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Koffi, B., S. Szopa, A. Cozic, D. Hauglustaine, and P. van Velthoven. "Present and future impact of aircraft, road traffic and shipping emissions on global tropospheric ozone." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 10, no. 6 (June 28, 2010): 15755–809. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-10-15755-2010.
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Abstract. In this study, the LMDz-INCA climate-chemistry model and up-to-date global emission inventories are used to investigate the "present" (2000) and future (2050) impacts of transport emissions (road traffic, shipping and aircraft) on global tropospheric ozone. For the first time, both impacts of emissions and climate changes on transport-induced ozone are investigated. The 2000 transport emissions are shown to mainly affect ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, with a maximum increase of the tropospheric column of up to 5 DU, from the South-Eastern US to Central Europe. The impact is dominated by road traffic in the middle and upper troposphere, north of 40° S, and by shipping in the northern lower troposphere, over oceanic regions. A strong reduction of road emissions and amoderate (B1 scenario) to high (A1B scenario) increase of the ship and aircraft emissions are expected by the year 2050. As a consequence, LMDz-INCA simulations predict a drastic decrease in the impact of road emissions, whereas aviation would become the major transport perturbation on tropospheric ozone, even in the case of avery optimistic aircraft mitigation scenario. The A1B emission scenario leads to an increase of the impact of transport on zonal mean ozone concentrations in 2050 by up to +30% and +50%, in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Despite asimilar total amount of global NOx emissions by the various transport sectors compared to 2000, the overall impact on the tropospheric ozone column is increased everywhere in 2050, due to a sectoral shift in the emissions of the respective transport modes. On the opposite, the B1 mitigation scenario leads to asignificant reduction (by roughly 50%) of the ozone perturbation throughout the troposphere compared to 2000. Considering climate change, and according to scenario A1B, a decrease of the O3 tropospheric burden is simulated by 2050 due to climate change (−1.2%), whereas an increase of ozone of up to 2% is calculated in the upper troposphere in the inter-tropical zone, due to enhanced lightning activity. A global impact of similar magnitude is simulated for the transport-induced ozone burden perturbation (−1.6%). As a result, the future increase in global ozone due to changes in anthropogenic emissions is lowered by 12% and by 4%, for the background and the transport-induced ozone, respectively. However, positive and negative climate effects are obtained on ozone, depending on the season, region and altitude, with an increase of the transport-induced ozone perturbation (+0.4 DU) in the already most affected area of Northern Hemisphere.
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Koffi, B., S. Szopa, A. Cozic, D. Hauglustaine, and P. van Velthoven. "Present and future impact of aircraft, road traffic and shipping emissions on global tropospheric ozone." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10, no. 23 (December 9, 2010): 11681–705. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11681-2010.
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Abstract. In this study, the LMDz-INCA climate-chemistry model and up-to-date global emission inventories are used to investigate the "present" (2000) and future (2050) impacts of transport emissions (road traffic, shipping and aircraft) on global tropospheric ozone. For the first time, both impacts of emissions and climate changes on transport-induced ozone are investigated. The 2000 transport emissions are shown to mainly affect ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, with a maximum increase of the tropospheric column of up to 5 DU, from the South-eastern US to Central Europe. The impact is dominated by road traffic in the middle and upper troposphere, North of 40° S, and by shipping in the northern lower troposphere, over oceanic regions. A strong reduction of road emissions and a moderate (B1 scenario) to high (A1B scenario) increase of the ship and aircraft emissions are projected by the year 2050. As a consequence, LMDz-INCA simulations predict a drastic decrease in the impact of road emissions, whereas aviation would become the major transport perturbation on tropospheric ozone, even in the case of a very optimistic aircraft mitigation scenario. The A1B emission scenario leads to an increase of the impact of transport on zonal mean ozone concentrations in 2050 by up to +30% and +50%, in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Despite a similar total amount of global NOx emissions by the various transport sectors compared to 2000, the overall impact on the tropospheric ozone column is increased everywhere in 2050, due to a sectoral shift in the emissions of the respective transport modes. On the opposite, the B1 mitigation scenario leads to a significant reduction (by roughly 50%) of the ozone perturbation throughout the troposphere compared to 2000. Considering climate change, and according to scenario A1B, a decrease of the O3 tropospheric burden is simulated by 2050 due to climate change (−1.2%), whereas an increase of ozone of up to 2% is calculated in the upper troposphere in the inter-tropical zone, due to enhanced lightning activity. A global impact of similar magnitude is simulated for the transport-induced ozone burden perturbation (−1.6%). As a result, the future increase in global ozone due to changes in anthropogenic emissions is lowered by 12% and by 4%, for the background and the transport-induced ozone, respectively. However, positive and negative climate effects are obtained on ozone, depending on the season, region and altitude, with an increase of the transport-induced ozone perturbation (+0.4 DU) in the already most affected area of Northern Hemisphere.
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Zhu, Kangwen, Jun He, Lanxin Zhang, Dan Song, Longjiang Wu, Yaqun Liu, and Sheng Zhang. "Impact of Future Development Scenario Selection on Landscape Ecological Risk in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone." Land 11, no. 7 (June 23, 2022): 964. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11070964.
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The management of regional eco-environmental risks is the key to promoting regional economic sustainability from the macro level, and accurate evaluation of the evolutionary trends of regional ecological risk in the future is of high importance. In order to clearly identify the possible impact of future development scenario selection for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone (C-C E Zone) on the evolution of landscape ecological risk (LER), we introduced the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate land use data for the C-C E Zone from 2030 to 2050 for two scenarios: natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP). Based on the ecological grid and landscape ecological risk index (LERI) model, the landscape ecological risk (LER) evolutionary trends seen in the C-C E Zone from 2000 to 2050 were analyzed and identified. The results showed that: (1) The PLUS model can obtain high-precision simulation results in the C-C E Zone. In the future, the currently increasing rate of land being used for construction will be reduced, the declining rates of forest and cultivated land area will also be reduced, and the amount of land being used for various purposes will remain stable going into the future. (2) This study found that the optimal size of the ecological grid in the LERI calculation of the mountainous area was 4 × 4 km. Additionally, the mean values of the LERI in 2030, 2040, and 2050 were 0.1612, 0.1628, and 0.1636 for ND and 0.1612, 0.1618, and 0.1620 for EP. (3) The hot spot analysis results showed that an area of about 49,700 km2 in the C-C E Zone from 2000 to 2050 belongs to high agglomeration of LER. (4) Since 2010, the proportions of high and extremely high risk levels have continued to increase, but under the EP scenario, the high and extremely high risk levels in 2040 and 2050 decreased from 14.36% and 6.66% to 14.33% and 6.43%. Regional analysis showed that the high and extremely high risk levels in most regions increased over 2010–2050. (5) Under the ND scenario, the proportions of grids with decreased, unchanged, and increased risk levels were 15.13%, 81.48%, and 3.39% for 2000–2010 and 0.54%, 94.75%, and 4.71% for 2040–2050. These trends indicated that the proportion of grids with changed risk levels gradually decreased going into the future. This study analyzed the evolutionary trends of LER at the C-C E Zone for the ND and EP scenario. On the whole, the LER for the C-C E Zone showed an upward trend, and the EP scenario was conducive to reducing the risk. These research results can serve as a valuable data reference set for regional landscape optimization and risk prevention and control.
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Hanssen-Bauer, I. "Temperature and precipitation in Svalbard 1912–2050: measurements and scenarios." Polar Record 38, no. 206 (July 2002): 225–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0032247400017757.
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AbstractTemperature and precipitation series from Svalbard for the period 1912–2000 were analysed. There was a statistically significant warming from 1912 to the 1930s, a cooling from the 1930s to the 1960s and a warming from the 1960s to present. There was a positive trend in the annual mean temperature during the period 1912–2000, but it was not statistically significant. Spring was the only season when a statistically significant warming was found. For precipitation, statistically significant positive trends during the period 1912–2000 were found on an annual basis and in all seasons except winter. Empirical downscaling was applied on the results from a global climate model to produce scenarios for monthly temperature and precipitation in Svalbard. The 2 m temperature was applied as predictor for temperature. For precipitation, a combination of temperature and sea-level pressure was used. The temperature scenario indicates a warming of about 1°C per decade in winter, and 0.3°C per decade in summer from 1961 to 2050. The projected increase in annual mean temperature is about five times the average warming rate from 1912 to present, and highly significant. The precipitation scenario also indicates that precipitation will increase significantly until 2050. The maximum increase was projected in spring precipitation; however, the trends in seasonal precipitation are quite uncertain.
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Tai, A. P. K., L. J. Mickley, and D. J. Jacob. "Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 23 (December 3, 2012): 11329–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11329-2012.
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Abstract. Studies of the effect of climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality using general circulation models (GCMs) show inconsistent results including in the sign of the effect. This reflects uncertainty in the GCM simulations of the regional meteorological variables affecting PM2.5. Here we use the CMIP3 archive of data from fifteen different IPCC AR4 GCMs to obtain improved statistics of 21st-century trends in the meteorological modes driving PM2.5 variability over the contiguous US. We analyze 1999–2010 observations to identify the dominant meteorological modes driving interannual PM2.5 variability and their synoptic periods T. We find robust correlations (r > 0.5) of annual mean PM2.5 with T, especially in the eastern US where the dominant modes represent frontal passages. The GCMs all have significant skill in reproducing present-day statistics for T and we show that this reflects their ability to simulate atmospheric baroclinicity. We then use the local PM2.5-to-period sensitivity (dPM2.5/dT) from the 1999–2010 observations to project PM2.5 changes from the 2000–2050 changes in T simulated by the 15 GCMs following the SRES A1B greenhouse warming scenario. By weighted-average statistics of GCM results we project a likely 2000–2050 increase of ~ 0.1 μg m−3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the eastern US arising from less frequent frontal ventilation, and a likely decrease albeit with greater inter-GCM variability in the Pacific Northwest due to more frequent maritime inflows. Potentially larger regional effects of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 may arise from changes in temperature, biogenic emissions, wildfires, and vegetation, but are still unlikely to affect annual PM2.5 by more than 0.5 μg m−3.
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Zhao, Liyun, Ran Ding, and John C. Moore. "The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to 2050." Annals of Glaciology 57, no. 71 (March 2016): 223–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/2016aog71a049.
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AbstractWe estimate all the individual glacier area and volume changes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) by 2050 based on Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) version 4.0, using different methods of assessing sensitivity to summer temperatures driven by a regional climate model and the IPCC A1B radiative forcing scenario. A large range of sea-level rise variation comes from varying equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to summer temperatures. This sensitivity and also the glacier mass-balance gradients with elevation have the largest coefficients of variability (amounting to ~50%) among factors examined. Prescribing ELA sensitivities from energy-balance models produces the highest sea-level rise (9.2 mm, or 0.76% of glacier volume a–1), while the ELA sensitivities estimated from summer temperatures at Chinese meteorological stations and also from 1°x1° gridded temperatures in the Berkeley Earth database produce 3.6 and 3.8 mm, respectively. Different choices of the initial ELA or summer precipitation lead to 15% uncertainties in modelled glacier volume loss. RGI version 4.0 produces 20% lower sea-level rise than version 2.0. More surface mass-balance observations, meteorological data from the glaciated areas, and detailed satellite altimetry data can provide better estimates of sea-level rise in the future.
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Sloane, Philip D., Sheryl Zimmerman, Chirayath Suchindran, Peter Reed, Lily Wang, Malaz Boustani, and S. Sudha. "The Public Health Impact of Alzheimer's Disease, 2000–2050: Potential Implication of Treatment Advances." Annual Review of Public Health 23, no. 1 (May 2002): 213–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.23.100901.140525.
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Holden, Brien A., Timothy R. Fricke, David A. Wilson, Monica Jong, Kovin S. Naidoo, Padmaja Sankaridurg, Tien Y. Wong, Thomas J. Naduvilath, and Serge Resnikoff. "Global Prevalence of Myopia and High Myopia and Temporal Trends from 2000 through 2050." Ophthalmology 123, no. 5 (May 2016): 1036–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ophtha.2016.01.006.
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Angel, Shlomo, Jason Parent, Daniel L. Civco, Alexander Blei, and David Potere. "The dimensions of global urban expansion: Estimates and projections for all countries, 2000–2050." Progress in Planning 75, no. 2 (February 2011): 53–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2011.04.001.
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Hui, Jiang, and Liao Hong. "Projected Changes in NOxEmissions from Lightning as a Result of 2000–2050 Climate Change." Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 6, no. 5 (January 2013): 284–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2013.11447095.
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L�tolle, Ren�, Nicholas Aladin, Igor Filipov, and N. G. O. Boroffka. "The Future Chemical Evolution of the Aral Sea from 2000 to the Years 2050." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10, no. 1 (January 2005): 51–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-005-7830-2.
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Tai, A. P. K., L. J. Mickley, and D. J. Jacob. "Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM</sub>2.5</sub>) air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no. 7 (July 20, 2012): 18107–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-18107-2012.
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Abstract. Studies of the effect of climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality using general circulation models (GCMs) have yielded inconsistent results including in the sign of the effect. This reflects uncertainty in the GCM simulations of the regional meteorological variables affecting PM2.5. Here we use the CMIP3 archive of data from fifteen different IPCC AR4 GCMs to obtain improved statistics of 21st-century trends in the meteorological modes driving PM2.5 variability over the contiguous US. We analyze 1999–2010 observations to identify the dominant meteorological modes driving interannual PM2.5 variability and their synoptic periods T. We find robust correlations (r > 0.5) of annual mean PM2.5 with T, especially in the Eastern US where the dominant modes represent frontal passages. The GCMs all have significant skill in reproducing present-day statistics for T and we show that this reflects their ability to simulate atmospheric baroclinicity. We then use the local PM2.5-to-period sensitivity (dPM2.5/dT) from the 1999–2010 observations to project PM2.5 changes from the 2000–2050 changes in T simulated by the 15 GCMs following the SRES A1B greenhouse warming scenario. By weighted-average statistics of GCM results we project a likely 2000–2050 increase of ~0.1 μg m−3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the Eastern US arising from less frequent frontal ventilation, and a likely decrease of ~0.3 μg m−3 in the Northwestern US due to more frequent maritime inflows. These circulation-driven changes are relatively small. Potentially larger regional effects of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 may arise from changes in temperature, biogenic emissions, wildfires, and vegetation, but are still unlikely to affect annual PM2.5 by more than 0.5 μg m−3.
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Takeshita, Takayuki. "A Preliminary Assessment of the Competitiveness of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Technologies." Advanced Materials Research 827 (October 2013): 195–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.827.195.
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Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a form of solar energy that can produce electricity on a non-intermittent basis. In this paper, a regionally disaggregated global energy system model with a detailed treatment of the electricity supply sector is used to examine the competitiveness of OTEC technologies for each of 48 world regions over the period to 2050 under a constraint of halving global energy-related CO2emissions in 2050 compared to the 2000 level. It is first shown that an over 20% reduction in the reference OTEC electricity generation costs would enable OTEC technologies to account for a noticeable share of the global electricity generation by 2050 under the CO2constraint. It is then shown that by-products from OTEC technologies could significantly enhance their cost competitiveness in the global electricity generation sector. It is finally shown that southeastern Asia (mainly Indonesia and Timor-Leste), Latin America (mainly Central America), and Oceania are the regions attractive for the deployment of OTEC technologies.
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Bąk, Bogdan, and Leszek Łabędzki. "Thermal conditions in Bydgoszcz Region in growing seasons of 2011–2050 in view of expected climate change/ Warunki termiczne w rejonie Bydgoszczy w okresie wegetacyjnym w latach 2011–2050 w świetle przewidywanej zmiany klimatu." Journal of Water and Land Development 23, no. 1 (December 1, 2014): 21–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jwld-2014-0026.
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Abstract The paper presents an analyse of the scenario of expected changes in monthly mean air temperature of months in the growing season (April-September) and growing seasons of 2011-2050 in Bydgoszcz Region. Prediction of thermal conditions is made using regional climate model RM5.1 with boundary values taken from global model ARPEGE. When compared with the reference period 1971-2000, an increase of mean air temperature should be expected in most months and growing seasons of the years 2011-2050. The biggest positive change in the mean monthly temperature is predicted for July (1.5°C) and August (1.2°C). In 2011-2050 significant increase trends of air temperature change can be expected in April, June and August. According to the thermal classification proposed by Lorenc, normal, slightly warm and slightly cool months and growing periods will dominate. The frequency of normal and slightly cool growing periods will decrease and the frequency of slightly warm growing periods will increase.
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Koeshendrajana, Sonny, Mira Mira, Zuzy Anna, Duto Nugroho, Umi Muawanah, and Yesi Dewitasari. "APLIKASI MODEL PELLA-TOMLINSON PADA PENGELOLAAN SUMBER DAYA PERIKANAN KAKAP MERAH DI INDONESIA." Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan 13, no. 2 (February 8, 2019): 143. http://dx.doi.org/10.15578/jsekp.v13i2.6878.
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ABSTRAKTujuan dari penelitian ini adalah memodelkan pengelolaan sumber daya perikanan kakap merah di Indonesiadengan menggunakan model Pella-Tomlinson. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada tahun 2016, dengan data perikanan kakap merah Indonesia. Model surplus produksi bio-ekonomi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah model Pella-Tomlinson. Hasil analisis mengindikasikan, pertama jumlah upaya tangkap aktual berada diatas jumlah jumlah upaya lestari (MSY). Jika pengelolaan perikanan dilakukan berdasarkan prinsip perikanan lestari, maka mulai tahun 2020 upaya tangkap di bawah jumlah upaya lestari (MSY). Kedua, dalam kondisi bussiness as ussual, terjadi kenaikan bio-massa ikan semenjak tahun 1980 sampai pada tahun 2000, akan tetapi dari tahun dari tahun 2000 sampai tahun 2014 terjadi penurunan bio-massa ikan. Jika tidak ada intervensi kebijakan untuk mengurangi laju degradasi sumber daya maka penurunan biomassa akan terus terjadi hingga tahun 2050. Jika pemerintah melakukan intervensi kebijakan pengelolaan perikanan secara berkelanjutan, akan terrjadi kenaikan biomassa dari tahun 2020 sampai dengan tahun 2050. Ketiga, sejalan dengan penurunan bio-massa karena tidak adanya intervensi kebijakan pengelolaan perikanan kakap merah secara berkelanjutan, maka keuntungan yang diterima nelayan akan menurun, karena terjadi penurunan hasil tangkapan. Tapi jika pemerintah mengeluarkan kebijakan pengelolaan perikanan kakap merah secara berkelanjutan seperti pembatasan upaya penangkapan, maka keuntungan yang diterima nelayan akan meningkat lagi dari tahun 2020 sampai dengan tahun 2050. Title: Pella-Tomlinson Model for Red Snapper Management in IndonesiaABSTRACT The purpose of this study to develop a management model for red snapper fishery using a Pella Tomlinson Model. The research was conducted in 2016, for the national snapper fisheries obtained from official yearly landing statisctic data to get the time series catches and efforts. Surplus production bioeconomic was utilized with modified Pella and Tomlinson model for the growth model. The analysis shows that first, total efforts deployed without any kind of management (e.g. stay as an open access) will yield higher effort than maximum efforts at maximum sustainable level yield (MSY). This is a consequence of the increasing rate of red snapper efforts between 1980-2014. If fishery management is kept at the sustainable level of total efforts, then in 2020, total efforts will be less than the MSY level. Second, biomass increased between 1980-2000 and then decreased after 2000 until 2014. If there will be no intervention to the depletion of fishery resources, the fishery will be completely depleted in 2050. Third, when the snapper biomass decreases, the cathes will decrease as well. Hence, that total profits from the fishery will decrease. However, some intervention and magement measures will be put in place, such as limiting the total efforts, the cathes and profits will bounce back and increase after 2020 and the years after.
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Kapsambelis, Dorothée, David Moncoulon, Martine Veysseire, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, and Jean Cordier. "Modeling the Impact of Extreme Droughts on Agriculture under Current and Future Climate Conditions Using a Spatialized Climatic Index." Applied Sciences 12, no. 5 (February 27, 2022): 2481. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12052481.
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Extreme droughts have a strong impact on agricultural production. In France, the 2003 drought generated records of yield losses at a national scale for grassland (more than 30%) and for cereals (more than 10% for soft winter wheat and winter barley). These extreme events raise the question of farm resilience in the future. Studying them makes it possible to adapt risk management policy to climate change. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to analyze the frequency and the intensity of extreme drought in 2050 and their impact on crop yield losses (grassland and cereals) in France. We used the DOWKI (Drought and Overwhelmed Water Key Indicator) meteorological index based on a cumulative water anomaly, which can explain droughts and their consequences on agricultural yield losses at a departmental scale. Then, using the ARPEGE-Climat Model developed by Meteo-France, DOWKI was projected in 2050 and grassland, soft winter wheat, and winter barley yield losses were simulated. The results compare the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts between the climate in 2000 and 2050. Our results show that the frequency of extreme droughts (at least as intense as in 2003) doubled in 2050. In addition, the yield losses due to 10-year droughts increased by 35% for grassland and by more than 70% for cereals.
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Nehring, Richard. "Traversing the mountaintop: world fossil fuel production to 2050." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 364, no. 1532 (October 27, 2009): 3067–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0170.
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During the past century, fossil fuels—petroleum liquids, natural gas and coal—were the dominant source of world energy production. From 1950 to 2005, fossil fuels provided 85–93% of all energy production. All fossil fuels grew substantially during this period, their combined growth exceeding the increase in world population. This growth, however, was irregular, providing for rapidly growing per capita production from 1950 to 1980, stable per capita production from 1980 to 2000 and rising per capita production again after 2000. During the past half century, growth in fossil fuel production was essentially limited by energy demand. During the next half century, fossil fuel production will be limited primarily by the amount and characteristics of remaining fossil fuel resources. Three possible scenarios—low, medium and high—are developed for the production of each of the fossil fuels to 2050. These scenarios differ primarily by the amount of ultimate resources estimated for each fossil fuel. Total fossil fuel production will continue to grow, but only slowly for the next 15–30 years. The subsequent peak plateau will last for 10–15 years. These production peaks are robust; none of the fossil fuels, even with highly optimistic resource estimates, is projected to keep growing beyond 2050. World fossil fuel production per capita will thus begin an irreversible decline between 2020 and 2030.
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Sonnenschein, E., and J. A. Brody. "Effect of Population Aging on Proportionate Mortality From Heart Disease and Cancer, U.S. 2000-2050." Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 60, no. 2 (March 1, 2005): S110—S112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geronb/60.2.s110.
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Wang, Yuxuan, Lulu Shen, Shiliang Wu, Loretta Mickley, Jingwei He, and Jiming Hao. "Sensitivity of surface ozone over China to 2000–2050 global changes of climate and emissions." Atmospheric Environment 75 (August 2013): 374–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.04.045.
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Kangalakova, D. M., Zh K. Abzhan, S. Zh Ibraimova, and L. S. Spankulova. "Analysis and Forecast of the Demographic Situation in Kazakhstan." Economics: the strategy and practice 17, no. 2 (June 30, 2022): 98–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2-98-110.
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Forecasting demographic processes is a calculation of the future number, gender, and age structure of citizens in the context of individual countries, their regions, regional entities, as well as the whole world as a whole. In the strategic planning of the state’s economic and social situation, the population is important. This research paper provides an analysis of the demographic forecast in the example of Kazakhstan. The purpose of the study was to analyze the population of Kazakhstan in the period from 2000 to 2020, identify features, and forecast the population until 2050. The study used methods such as analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, and a method, that allows, to predict the behavior of processes in the future. Using the method of extrapolation, the coefficients of fertility, mortality, natural, absolute, average population growth, and migration coefficient were determined. Based on the calculated coefficients, the population of the republic was predicted until 2050. The study found that the population in Kazakhstan increased by 200-300 thousand people annually, the birth rate doubled from 2000 to 2020, mortality increased by 7%, there is a high demographic potential in Turkestan and Almaty regions, high, low - in North Kazakhstan, Kostanay and West Kazakhstan regions. The results of the study showed that in 2050 the population will be 26.5 million people. The paper provides recommendations for improving the demographic situation in the country. The results of the study can be applied in the theory of demographic forecasting and in the work on the strategic planning of state bodies.
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Cai, Guo, Yuying Lin, Fazi Zhang, Shihe Zhang, Linsheng Wen, and Baoyin Li. "Response of Ecosystem Service Value to Landscape Pattern Changes under Low-Carbon Scenario: A Case Study of Fujian Coastal Areas." Land 11, no. 12 (December 19, 2022): 2333. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11122333.
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Assessing the influence of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem service value (ESV) is critical for developing land-use polies and increasing ecosystem services. The data sources include remote-sensing image data and statistical yearbooks from 2000, 2010, and 2020. This study employs the patch-generating land-use simulation model, landscape pattern index, and ecological service value estimation to analyse the changes in landscape patterns and ESV in Fujian coastal areas over the last 20 years. The landscape pattern and ESV in the future (2050) are then simulated under the low-carbon scenario (LCS), with the natural development scenario (NDS) serving as a comparison. The results show that: (1) the most noticeable changes from 2000 to 2020 are the reduced cultivated land area and the rapid expansion of construction land area. By 2050, construction land will account for 7.67% of the total land area under LCS, whereas NDS will account for 9.45%, and changes in the landscape pattern indices all indicate there will be greater variety and fragmentation of the landscape, with the NDS being more serious than the LCS; (2) From 2000–2020, the total ESV value showed a decreasing trend. In 2050, the ESV under the LCS will be 122.387 billion yuan, which is higher than the 121.434 billion yuan under the NDS. Regulating services contribute the most to the total ESV, followed by support services; and (3) In the past 20 years, except for a slight increase in water area, the ESV of other landscapes has decreased, with a net decrease of 3.134 billion yuan in total. The R2 fitting between the area change of cultivated and construction land and the total ESV reached 0.9898 and 0.9843, respectively. The correlations between ESV and landscape indices indicate that landscape pattern changes significantly impact ESV. Simulating ESV in LCS can provide guidance for optimising landscape patterns, promoting the benign operation of the regional ecosystem, and achieving sustainable ecological development.