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Journal articles on the topic '21st century, c 2000 to c 2100'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 29 July 2024

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Amin, Ir Mohd Zaki bin Mat, Ali Ercan, Kei Ishida, M. Levent Kavvas, Z. Q. Chen, and Su-Hyung Jang. "Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Peninsular Malaysia." Water 11, no. 9 (2019): 1798. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11091798.

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In this study, a regional climate model was used to dynamically downscale 15 future climate projections from three GCMs covering four emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1FI, A1B, A2) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets to 6-km horizontal resolution over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Impacts of climate change in the 21st century on the precipitation, air temperature, and soil water storage were assessed covering ten watersheds and twelve coastal regions. Then, by coupling a physical hydrology model with the regional climate model, the impacts of the climate chang

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Almazroui, Mansour. "Temperature Changes over the CORDEX-MENA Domain in the 21st Century Using CMIP5 Data Downscaled with RegCM4: A Focus on the Arabian Peninsula." Advances in Meteorology 2019 (May 20, 2019): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/5395676.

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This paper examined the temperature changes from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain called CORDEX-MENA. The focus is on the Arabian Peninsula in the 21st century, using data from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled by RegCM4, a regional climate model. The analysis includes surface observations along with RegCM4 simulations and changes in threshold based on extreme temperature at the end of the 21st century relative to the base period (1971–2000). Irrespective of the drivi

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Murray-Tortarolo, G., P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, et al. "The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes." Biogeosciences 13, no. 1 (2016): 223–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016.

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Abstract. We modeled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico with a process-based approach. We used different available products (satellite data, field measurements, models and flux towers) to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country at three different time frames: present (defined as the period 2000–2005), the past century (1901–2000) and the remainder of this century (2010–2100). Our estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) for the country was 2137 ± 1023 TgC yr−1 and a total C stock of 34 506 ± 7483 TgC, with 20 347 ± 4622 TgC in vegetation and 14 159 ± 3861 in the soil.Contrary to other

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Murray-Tortarolo, G., P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, et al. "The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes." Biogeosciences Discussions 12, no. 15 (2015): 12501–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-12501-2015.

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Abstract. We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico with a process-based approach. We used different available products (satellite data, field measurements, models and flux towers) to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country at three different time frames: present (defined as the period 2000–2005), the past century (1901–2000) and the remainder of this century (2010–2100). Our estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) for the country was 2137 ± 1023 Tg C yr−1 and a total C stock of 34 506 ± 7483 Tg C, with 20 347 ± 4622 Pg C in vegetation and 14 159 ± 3861 in the soil. Contrary to o

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Tan, Z., L. L. Tieszen, E. Tachie-Obeng, S. Liu, and A. M. Dieye. "Historical and simulated ecosystem carbon dynamics in Ghana: land use, management, and climate." Biogeosciences Discussions 5, no. 3 (2008): 2343–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-5-2343-2008.

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Abstract. We used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) to simulate responses of natural and managed ecosystems to changes in land use, management, and climate for a forest/savanna transitional zone in central Ghana. Model results show that deforestation for crop production during the last century resulted in a substantial reduction in ecosystem carbon (C) stock from 135.4 Mg C ha−1 in 1900 to 77.0 Mg C ha−1 in 2000, and in soil organic C stock within the top 20 cm of soil from 26.6 Mg C ha−1 to 21.2 Mg C ha−1. If no land use change takes place from 2000 through 2100, low

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Tan, Z., L. L. Tieszen, E. Tachie-Obeng, S. Liu, and A. M. Dieye. "Historical and simulated ecosystem carbon dynamics in Ghana: land use, management, and climate." Biogeosciences 6, no. 1 (2009): 45–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-45-2009.

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Abstract. We used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) to simulate responses of natural and managed ecosystems to changes in land use and land cover, management, and climate for a forest/savanna transitional zone in central Ghana. Model results show that deforestation for crop production during the 20th century resulted in a substantial reduction in ecosystem carbon (C) stock from 135.4 Mg C ha−1 in 1900 to 77.0 Mg C ha−1 in 2000, and in soil organic C stock within the top 20 cm of soil from 26.6 Mg C ha−1 to 21.2 Mg C ha−1. If no land use change takes place from 2000 thr

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Schleussner, C. F., K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, J. Yin, and A. Levermann. "Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 1, no. 1 (2010): 357–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-1-357-2010.

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Abstract. In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC within the covered calibration range for the lower

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Mezghani, Abdelkader, Andreas Dobler, Jan Erik Haugen, et al. "CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations." Earth System Science Data 9, no. 2 (2017): 905–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017.

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Abstract. The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and

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Schleussner, C. F., K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, J. Yin, and A. Levermann. "Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast." Earth System Dynamics 2, no. 2 (2011): 191–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011.

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Abstract. In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range

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Hammoudy, Wahib, Rachid Ilmen, and Mohamed Sinan. "High-resolution RCP scenario for the 21st century in the North-West region of Morocco, future projections for 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100." Brazilian Journal of Science 2, no. 10 (2023): 63–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.14295/bjs.v2i10.375.

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Climate model simulations of future climate are the basis for adaptation decisions, which the effectiveness will depend on the quality of the models. A set of climate models developed under the CMIP6 project and generated by the spatial bias correction disaggregation method (BCSD) using a statistical downscaling algorithm have been used. These models are used to evaluate the future changes in thermal extremes projected by the climate models over the different time horizons with comparison to the 1981-2000 reference period. These projections are made under the scenario RCP 4.5 (optimistic). The

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Stefanidis, Stefanos, and Dimitrios Stathis. "Effect of Climate Change on Soil Erosion in a Mountainous Mediterranean Catchment (Central Pindus, Greece)." Water 10, no. 10 (2018): 1469. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10101469.

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The aim of this study was to assess soil erosion changes in the mountainous catchment of the Portaikos torrent (Central Greece) under climate change. To this end, precipitation and temperature data were derived from a high-resolution (25 × 25 km) RegCM3 regional climate model for the baseline period 1974–2000 and future period 2074–2100. Additionally, three GIS layers were generated regarding land cover, geology, and slopes in the study area, whereas erosion state was recognized after field observations. Subsequently, the erosion potential model (EPM) was applied to quantify the effects of pre

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Polovina, Jeffrey J., John P. Dunne, Phoebe A. Woodworth, and Evan A. Howell. "Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming." ICES Journal of Marine Science 68, no. 6 (2011): 986–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq198.

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Abstract Polovina, J. J., Dunne, J. P., Woodworth, P. A., and Howell, E. A. 2011. Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 986–995. A climate model that includes a coupled ocean biogeochemistry model is used to define large oceanic biomes in the North Pacific Ocean and describe their changes over the 21st century in response to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario A2 future atmospheric CO2 emissions scenario. Driven by enhanced stratifica

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Gangstø, R., F. Joos, and M. Gehlen. "Sensitivity of pelagic calcification to ocean acidification." Biogeosciences 8, no. 2 (2011): 433–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-433-2011.

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Abstract. Ocean acidification might reduce the ability of calcifying plankton to produce and maintain their shells of calcite, or of aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. In addition to possibly large biological impacts, reduced CaCO3 production corresponds to a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2. In order to explore the sensitivity of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, we use the new biogeochemical Bern3D/PISCES model. The model reproduces the large scale distributions of biogeochemical tracers. With a range of sensitivity studies, we explore the ef

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Mavromatis, Theodoros, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Dimitris Melas, and Prodromos Zanis. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Seasonal Crop-Specific Climatic Indices under Climate Change in Greece Based on EURO-CORDEX RCM Simulations." Sustainability 14, no. 24 (2022): 17048. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142417048.

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This study presents an updated assessment of the projected climate change over Greece in the near future (2021–2050) and at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) (EOC), relative to the reference period 1971–2000, and focusing on seasonal crop-specific climatic indices. The indices include days (d) with: a maximum daily near-surface temperature (TASMAX) > 30 °C in Spring, a TASMAX > 35 °C in Summer (hot days), a minimum daily near-surface temperature (TASMIN) < 0 °C (frost days) in Spring, a TASMIN > 20 °C (tropical nights) in Spring–Summer and the daily precipitation (PR) > 1

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Bán, Beatrix, Gabriella Szépszó, Gabriella Allaga-Zsebeházi, and Samuel Somot. "ALADIN-Climate at the Hungarian Meteorological Service: from the beginnings to the present day’s results." Időjárás 125, no. 4 (2021): 647–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2021.4.6.

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This study is focusing on the past and, in particular, the present of the ALADIN-Climate model used at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. The currently applied model version is 5.2 (HMS-ALADIN52). In the recent experiments, the CNRM-CM5 global model outputs were downscaled in two steps to 10 km horizontal resolution over Central and Southeast Europe using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Temperature and precipitation projections are analyzed for 2021-2050 and 2071–2100 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 with focus on Hungary. The results are evaluated in comparison to 26 simulati

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Parazoo, Nicholas C., Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Vladimir Romanovsky, and Charles E. Miller. "Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions." Cryosphere 12, no. 1 (2018): 123–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018.

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Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due to climate change is likely to offset increased vegetation C uptake in northern high-latitude (NHL) terrestrial ecosystems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback may act as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution of the feedback may be difficult. The formation of talik, a subsurface layer of perennially thawed soil, can accelerate permafrost degradation and soil respiration, ultimately shifting the C balance of permafrost-affected ecosystems from long-term C sinks to long-term C sources. It is imperative to understan

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Nishina, K., A. Ito, P. Falloon, et al. "Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results." Earth System Dynamics 6, no. 2 (2015): 435–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015.

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Abstract. We examined the changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVMs) obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCMs) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (i.e., emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analy

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Meinshausen, Malte, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, et al. "The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 8 (2020): 3571–605. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020.

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Abstract. Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projec

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Wang, Chung-Chieh, Min-Ru Hsieh, Yi Ting Thean, Zhe-Wen Zheng, Shin-Yi Huang, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki. "Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Super-Typhoons in the Western North Pacific: Cloud-Resolving Case Studies Using Pseudo-Global Warming Experiments." Atmosphere 15, no. 9 (2024): 1029. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091029.

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Potential impacts of projected long-term climate change toward the end of the 21st century on rainfall and peak intensity of six super-typhoons in the western North Pacific (WNP) are assessed using a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method, under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Linear long-term trends in June–October are calculated from 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models from 1981–2000 to 2081–2100, with warmings of about 3 °C in sea surface temperature, 4 °C in air temperature i

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Christensen, N. S., and D. P. Lettenmaier. "A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11, no. 4 (2007): 1417–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1417-2007.

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Abstract. Implications of 21st century climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin were assessed using a multimodel ensemble approach in which downscaled and bias corrected output from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to drive macroscale hydrology and water resources models. Downscaled climate scenarios (ensembles) were used as forcings to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, which in turn forced the Colorado River Reservoir Model (CRMM). Ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature, and derived streamflo

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Christensen, N., and D. P. Lettenmaier. "A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, no. 6 (2006): 3727–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-3-3727-2006.

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Abstract. Implications of 21st century climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin were assessed using a multimodel ensemble approach in which downscaled and bias corrected output from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to drive macroscale hydrology and water resources models. Downscaled climate scenarios (ensembles) were used as forcings to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, which in turn forced the Colorado River Reservoir Model (CRMM). Ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature, and derived streamflo

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Rounce, David R., Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion, et al. "Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters." Science 379, no. 6627 (2023): 78–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abo1324.

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Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase red

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Xu, Y., D. Zaelke, G. J. M. Velders, and V. Ramanathan. "The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no. 12 (2013): 6083–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013.

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Abstract. There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFC

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Meinshausen, M., T. M. L. Wigley, and S. C. B. Raper. "Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11, no. 4 (2011): 1457–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011.

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Abstract. Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable

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Shirley, Ian A., Zelalem A. Mekonnen, Robert F. Grant, Baptiste Dafflon, Susan S. Hubbard, and William J. Riley. "Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska." Environmental Research Letters 17, no. 1 (2022): 014032. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4362.

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Abstract Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem mode

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Pereira, Susana C., David Carvalho, and Alfredo Rocha. "Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change Scenarios: A Review." Climate 9, no. 9 (2021): 139. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli9090139.

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This paper presents the results of a systematic review of temperature and precipitation extremes over the Iberian Peninsula, focusing on observed changes in temperature and precipitation during the past years and what are the projected changes by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this review is to assess the current literature about extreme events and their change under global warming. Observational and climate modeling studies from the past decade were considered in this review. Based on observational evidence and in climate modeling experiments, mean and maximum temperatures are pr

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Lemes, Murilo da Costa Ruv, Michelle Simões Reboita, Roger Rodrigues Torres, and Gilberto F. Fisch. "Projeções da temperatura da superfície na bacia hidrográfica do rio Tietê – SP para o final do Século XXI." Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física 13, no. 07 (2020): 3206. http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v13.07.p3206-3218.

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A bacia hidrográfica do rio Tietê tem sido afetada por mudanças em seu uso e cobertura do solo, principalmente às margens do rio Tietê, que influenciam diretamente a temperatura da superfície (Ts). Nesse contexto, o objetivo do trabalho é caracterizar sazonalmente a Ts na referida bacia e apresentar projeções dessa variável obtidas com o modelo ETA em alta resolução (5 km) nos cenários RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 e considerando 3 intervalos temporais: 2006-2040, 2040-2070, 2070-2100. Até o final do século XXI algumas áreas da bacia do rio Tietê, bem como sua região de foz, poderão apresentar aumento de at

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Donald, Rapp. "Estimate of Temperature Rise in the 21st Century for Various Scenarios." IgMin Research 2, no. 7 (2024): 564–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.61927/igmin218.

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The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a lengthy report on climate change in early 2023. This report hypothesizes five potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 2015 to the end of the century (2100) and estimates the global average temperature gain in the year 2100 from the mid-1800s for each scenario. The method of calculation in the IPCC report is obscure. The results are merely stated. The present paper provides a clear method for estimating the temperature gain each year from 2015 until 2100, along with yearly estimates of ppm of CO2. To facilitate the calcul

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Adhikari, Surendra, and Philippe Huybrechts. "Numerical modelling of historical front variations and the 21st-century evolution of glacier AX010, Nepal Himalaya." Annals of Glaciology 50, no. 52 (2009): 27–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756409789624346.

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AbstractDue to the lack of measurements of ice velocity, mass balance, glacier geometry and other baseline data, model-based studies of glacial systems in the Nepal Himalaya are very limited. Here a numerical ice-flow model has been developed for glacier AX010 in order to study its relation to local climate and investigate the possible causes of its general retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age. First, an attempt is made to simulate the historical front variations, considering each climatic parameter separately. Good agreement between the observations and model projections can be obtaine

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Pielke Jr, Roger, Matthew G. Burgess, and Justin Ritchie. "Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100." Environmental Research Letters 17, no. 2 (2022): 024027. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf.

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Abstract Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C. The subset of

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Hipp, T., B. Etzelmüller, H. Farbrot, T. V. Schuler, and S. Westermann. "Modelling borehole temperatures in Southern Norway – insights into permafrost dynamics during the 20th and 21st century." Cryosphere 6, no. 3 (2012): 553–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-553-2012.

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Abstract. This study aims at quantifying the thermal response of mountain permafrost in southern Norway to changes in climate since 1860 and until 2100. A transient one-dimensional heat flow model was used to simulate ground temperatures and associated active layer thicknesses for nine borehole locations, which are located at different elevations and in substrates with different thermal properties. The model was forced by reconstructed air temperatures starting from 1860, which approximately coincides with the end of the Little Ice Age in the region. The impact of climate warming on mountain p

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Goll, D. S., V. Brovkin, B. R. Parida, et al. "Nutrient limitation reduces land carbon uptake in simulations with a model of combined carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling." Biogeosciences Discussions 9, no. 3 (2012): 3173–232. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-9-3173-2012.

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Abstract. Terrestrial carbon (C) cycle models applied for climate projections simulate a strong increase in net primary productivity (NPP) due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century. These models usually neglect the limited availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), nutrients that commonly limit plant growth and soil carbon turnover. To investigate how the projected C sequestration is altered when stoichiometric constraints on C cycling are considered, we incorporated a P cycle into the land surface model JSBACH, which already includes representations of couple

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Hipp, T., B. Etzelmüller, H. Farbrot, T. V. Schuler, and S. Westermann. "Modelling borehole temperatures in Southern Norway – insights into permafrost dynamics during the 20th and 21st century." Cryosphere Discussions 6, no. 1 (2012): 341–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-6-341-2012.

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Abstract. A transient heat flow model was used to simulate both past and future ground temperatures of mountain permafrost and associated active layer thickness in Southern Norway. The model was forced by reconstructed air temperature starting from 1860, approximately coinciding with the Little Ice Age in the region. The impact of climate warming on mountain permafrost until 2100 is assessed by using downscaled air temperatures from a multi-model ensemble for the A1B scenario. For 13 borehole locations, records over three consecutive years of ground temperatures, air temperatures and snow cove

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Wang, Sirui, Qianlai Zhuang, Outi Lähteenoja, Frederick C. Draper, and Hinsby Cadillo-Quiroz. "Potential shift from a carbon sink to a source in Amazonian peatlands under a changing climate." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 49 (2018): 12407–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1801317115.

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Amazonian peatlands store a large amount of soil organic carbon (SOC), and its fate under a future changing climate is unknown. Here, we use a process-based peatland biogeochemistry model to quantify the carbon accumulation for peatland and nonpeatland ecosystems in the Pastaza-Marañon foreland basin (PMFB) in the Peruvian Amazon from 12,000 y before present to AD 2100. Model simulations indicate that warming accelerates peat SOC loss, while increasing precipitation accelerates peat SOC accumulation at millennial time scales. The uncertain parameters and spatial variation of climate are signif

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Bachelet, D., J. Lenihan, R. Neilson, R. Drapek, and T. Kittel. "Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35, no. 9 (2005): 2244–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x05-086.

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The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 was used to examine climate, fire, and ecosystems interactions in Alaska under historical (19221996) and future (19972100) climate conditions. Projections show that by the end of the 21st century, 75%90% of the area simulated as tundra in 1922 is replaced by boreal and temperate forest. From 1922 to 1996, simulation results show a loss of about 9 g C·m2·year1 from fire emissions and 360 000 ha burned each year. During the same period 61% of the C gained (1.7 Pg C) is lost to fires (1 Pg C). Under future climate change scenarios, fire emissions incre

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Linsbauer, Andreas, Frank Paul, Horst Machguth, and Wilfried Haeberli. "Comparing three different methods to model scenarios of future glacier change in the Swiss Alps." Annals of Glaciology 54, no. 63 (2013): 241–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/2013aog63a400.

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AbstractOngoing atmospheric warming causes rapid shrinking of glaciers in the European Alps, with a high chance of their near-complete disappearance by the end of the 21st century. Here we present a comparison of three independent approaches to model the possible evolution of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century. The models have different levels of complexity, work at a regional scale and are forced with three scenarios of temperature increase (low, moderate, high). The moderate climate scenario gives an increase in air temperature of ∼2°C and ∼4°C for the two scenario periods

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Hipp, T., B. Etzelmüller, H. Farbrot, and T. V. Schuler. "Modelling the temperature evolution of permafrost and seasonal frost in southern Norway during the 20th and 21st century." Cryosphere Discussions 5, no. 2 (2011): 811–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-5-811-2011.

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Abstract. A heat flow model was used to simulate both past and future ground temperatures of mountain permafrost in Southern Norway. A reconstructed air temperature series back to 1860 was used to evaluate the permafrost evolution since the end of the Little Ice Age in the region. The impact of a changing climate on discontinuous mountain permafrost until 2100 is predicted by using downscaled temperatures from an ensemble of downscaled climate models for the A1B scenario. From 13 borehole locations two consecutive years of ground temperature, air temperature and snow cover data are available f

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Melo, Marian, Milan Lapin, and Ingrid Damborska. "Methods for the Design of Climate Change Scenario in Slovakia for the 21St Century." Bulletin of Geography. Physical Geography Series 1, no. 1 (2009): 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/bgeo-2009-0005.

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Abstract In this paper methods of climate-change scenario projection in Slovakia for the 21st century are outlined. Temperature and precipitation time series of the Hurbanovo Observatory in 1871-2007 (Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute) and data from four global GCMs (GISS 1998, CGCM1, CGCM2, HadCM3) are utilized for the design of climate change scenarios. Selected results of different climate change scenarios (based on different methods) for the region of Slovakia (up to 2100) are presented. The increase in annual mean temperature is about 3°C, though the results are ambiguous in the case o

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Goll, D. S., V. Brovkin, B. R. Parida, et al. "Nutrient limitation reduces land carbon uptake in simulations with a model of combined carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling." Biogeosciences 9, no. 9 (2012): 3547–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3547-2012.

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Abstract. Terrestrial carbon (C) cycle models applied for climate projections simulate a strong increase in net primary productivity (NPP) due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century. These models usually neglect the limited availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), nutrients that commonly limit plant growth and soil carbon turnover. To investigate how the projected C sequestration is altered when stoichiometric constraints on C cycling are considered, we incorporated a P cycle into the land surface model JSBACH (Jena Scheme for Biosphere–Atmosphere Coupling in

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Compagno, Loris, Sarah Eggs, Matthias Huss, Harry Zekollari, and Daniel Farinotti. "Brief communication: Do 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 °C matter for the future evolution of Alpine glaciers?" Cryosphere 15, no. 6 (2021): 2593–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2593-2021.

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Abstract. With the Paris Agreement, the urgency of limiting ongoing anthropogenic climate change has been recognised. More recent discussions have focused on the difference of limiting the increase in global average temperatures below 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 ∘C compared to preindustrial levels. Here, we assess the impacts that such different scenarios would have on both the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps and the water resources they provide. Our results show that even half-degree differences in global temperature targets have important implications for the changes predicted until 2

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Parandin, Farzad, Asadollah Khoorani, and Ommolbanin Bazrafshan. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Maximum Daily Discharge in the Payab Jamash Watershed, Iran." Open Geosciences 11, no. 1 (2019): 1035–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/geo-2019-0080.

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Abstract One of the most crucial consequences of climate change involves the alteration of the hydrologic cycle and river flow regime of watersheds. This study was an endeavor to investigate the contributions of climate change to maximum daily discharge (MDD). To this end, the MDD simulation was carried out through implementing the IHACRES precipitation-runoff model in the Payyab Jamash watershed for the 21st century (2016-2100). Subsequently, the observed precipitation and temperature data of the weather stations (1980-2011) as well as 4 multi-model outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) und

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Todd-Brown, K. E. O., J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, et al. "Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century." Biogeosciences 11, no. 8 (2014): 2341–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014.

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Abstract. Soil is currently thought to be a sink for carbon; however, the response of this sink to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change is uncertain. In this study, we analyzed soil organic carbon (SOC) changes from 11 Earth system models (ESMs) contributing simulations to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We used a reduced complexity model based on temperature and moisture sensitivities to analyze the drivers of SOC change for the historical and high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5) scenarios between 1850 and 2100. ESM estimates of SOC changed

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DAR, HIMAYOUN, ROSHNI THENDIYATH, and MOHSIN FAROOQ. "Spatio-temporal variations of land surface temperature and precipitation due to climate change in the Jhelum river basin, India." MAUSAM 71, no. 4 (2021): 661–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v71i4.54.

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The present study investigated the spatio-temporal variations of precipitation and temperature for the projected period (2011-2100) in the Jhelum basin, India. The precipitation and temperature variables are projected under RCP 8.5 scenario using statistical down scaling techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Wavelet Artificial Neural Network (WANN) models. Firstly, the screened predictors were downscaled to predictand using ANN and WANN models for all the study stations. On the basis of the performance criteria, the WANN model is selected as an efficient model for downscaling

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Schneider von Deimling, T., G. Grosse, J. Strauss, et al. "Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity." Biogeosciences 12, no. 11 (2015): 3469–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015.

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Abstract. High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon stock will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release fr

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De Smedt, Bert, and Frank Pattyn. "Numerical modelling of historical front variations and dynamic response of Sofiyskiy glacier, Altai mountains, Russia." Annals of Glaciology 37 (2003): 143–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756403781815654.

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AbstractThe recent fluctuation of the central Asian climate, and its effect on the region’s glaciers, is poorly known, largely because of a lack of knowledge of the dynamic behaviour of so-called summer-accumulation-type glaciers. In this study, a one-dimensional numerical glacier model is used to simulate the dynamic response of Sofiyskiy glacier, Altai mountains, Russia, to climate forcing. A successful simulation of the observed historical front variations was accomplished by dynamic calibration. This resulted in a reconstruction of the recent mass-balance history of the glacier, showing a

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Giesen, R. H., and J. Oerlemans. "Response of the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway to the 20th and 21st century climates." Cryosphere Discussions 3, no. 3 (2009): 947–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-3-947-2009.

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Abstract. Glacier mass balance changes lead to geometry changes and vice versa. To include this interdependence in the response of glaciers to climate change, models should include an interactive scheme coupling mass balance and ice dynamics. In this study, we couple a spatially distributed mass balance model to a two-dimensional ice-flow model and apply this coupled model to the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway. The available glacio-meteorological records, mass balance and glacier length change measurements were utilized for model calibration and validation. Driven with meteorologi

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Todd-Brown, K. E. O., J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, et al. "Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century." Biogeosciences Discussions 10, no. 12 (2013): 18969–9004. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-18969-2013.

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Abstract. Soil is currently thought to be a sink for carbon; however, the response of this sink to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change is uncertain. In this study, we analyzed soil organic carbon (SOC) changes from 11 Earth system models (ESMs) under the historical and high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5) scenarios between 1850 and 2100. We used a reduced complexity model based on temperature and moisture sensitivities to analyze the drivers of SOC losses. ESM estimates of SOC change over the 21st century (2090–2099 minus 1997–2006) ranged from a loss of 72 Pg C to a

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Spahni, R., F. Joos, B. D. Stocker, M. Steinacher, and Z. C. Yu. "Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century." Climate of the Past 9, no. 3 (2013): 1287–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013.

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Abstract. The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and tempe

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Spahni, R., F. Joos, B. D. Stocker, M. Steinacher, and Z. C. Yu. "Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century." Climate of the Past Discussions 8, no. 6 (2012): 5633–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-5633-2012.

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Abstract. The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation model (LPX). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates

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Vukovic, Ana, Mirjam Vujadinovic, Sonja Rendulic, et al. "Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100." Thermal Science 22, no. 6 Part A (2018): 2267–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci180411168v.

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Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate ? fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest eco?system, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation plan?ning. Future change analysis show a

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