Academic literature on the topic 'Accumulated local effects plots'

Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) is a widely-used explainability method for isolating the average effect of a feature on the output, because it handles cases with correlated features well. However, it has two limitations. First, it does not quantify the deviation of instance-level (local) effects from the average (global) effect, known as heterogeneity. Second, for estimating the average effect, it partitions the feature domain into user-defined, fixed-sized bins, where different bin sizes may lead to inconsistent ALE estimations. To address these limitations, we propose Robust and Heterogeneity-aware ALE (RHALE). RHALE quantifies the heterogeneity by considering the standard deviation of the local effects and automatically determines an optimal variable-size bin-splitting. In this paper, we prove that to achieve an unbiased approximation of the standard deviation of local effects within each bin, bin splitting must follow a set of sufficient conditions. Based on these conditions, we propose an algorithm that automatically determines the optimal partitioning, balancing the estimation bias and variance. Through evaluations on synthetic and real datasets, we demonstrate the superiority of RHALE compared to other methods, including the advantages of automatic bin splitting, especially in cases with correlated features.

<p dir="ltr">Changes in rainfall are predicted across tropical regions, with effects on nutrient, water, and carbon cycling. This chapter summarizes results from the first two years of a throughfall exclusion experiment in four lowland Panamanian forests that span a 1,000-mm change in rainfall and variation in soil fertility. Soil respiration (i.e., soil carbon dioxide [CO2 ] flux) declined with throughfall exclusion, with a site*season interaction, and the radiocarbon age of respired carbon was older in exclusion versus control plots. The decline in soil CO2 flux could be related to reduced fine root production and soil microbial biomass. Microbial community composition also changed with throughfall exclusion in infertile soils, and soil nutrients accumulated more in exclusion versus control plots during the dry season. The net effects on soil carbon storage will depend on the relative strengths of these effects over time. Continued research could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks with changes in precipitation.</p>

The change in the Gibbs free energy function, ΔG, of chemical reaction is determined by the difference between the heats respectively released to and absorbed from the environment, and separation of the enthalpy and entropy changes that these changes represent cannot be achieved without specific hypotheses as to their relations. The determination of the enthalpy of reaction by the plot of ΔG/T against 1/T (van’t Hoff plot) implicitly assumes that the enthalpy ΔH and entropy ΔS are temperature independent, and this assumption leads to very large errors when this is not the case and ΔH « TΔS. It is therefore inapplicable to the reactions of molecules, such as proteins, that have thermally activated local motions. The concepts offered previously by the author to relate the entropy and enthalpy changes in protein associations are reviewed briefly and applied to account for the temperature dependence of ΔH and ΔS. It is shown that two different values of the enthalpy computed in that manner correspond to each value of the apparent van’t Hoff enthalpy, but that the choice between the two is easily made by reference to the volume change on reaction. The enthalpies of association of subunit pairs of seven oligomers are all found to be positive and much more uniformly related to the size of the intersubunit surface than those previously assigned by use of the classical van’t Hoff plot.

Abstract More so than today, poetry in this period was a matter of the voice spoken and heard. This fact aids in the close reading of various types of verse, such as debate poems, conversation pieces, flytings, songs, and prayers. Audiences hearing early poetry read aloud or recited had less local mobility within the text than the present-day readers do when reading by eye, so early poetry often rewards an approach sensitive to accumulated effects. Understanding a context of reading aloudhelps us see the function of asides, speaker indicators, and restatements of topic in poetry. Religious drama and secular interludes are explored for their crafty uses of dialogue and sound.

In this work, the epidemiological and spatial analysis of leprosy was performed along the borders of the Amazon in the municipality of Rio Branco, in the state of Acre, based on secondary data obtained from national public databases. The number of registered contacts, examined contacts and new confirmed cases of the disease identified between 2006-2016, based on information from the National Surveillance System (SINAN), were used. The calculated detection rate and prevalence rate were classified according to recommendations by the Ministry of Health. To spatial evaluation, due to the low number of cases per district/year, triennial aggregation (2006-2008, 2010-2012 and 2014-2016) was used to evaluate the number of new cases of the disease and the mean detection rate. The cumulative prevalence rate was assessed in the period from 2006 to 2016. Spatial exploration of the distribution of new cases of leprosy by district using the Local Empirical Bayesian Model was applied, which smoothed the effects of random fluctuation of disease rates resulting from the calculation of small areas. The data showed high detection rates (1.62/10,000 inhabitants) in the year 2016, while the prevalence rate accumulated throughout the 2006-2016 period (29.76/10,000 inhabitants) was considered hyperendemic. Spatial analysis revealed that there was a reduction in the number of new cases from 2014 to 2016, the same for the mean detection rate in the period. Spatial analysis identified many hyperendemic leprosy areas in the municipality requiring specific public policies geared towards an active search for new cases of the disease.

Wildfires in Mediterranean Croatia have increased in recent decades, raising concerns about the adverse effects of fire and the rate of soil and water degradation. Post-fire management techniques, such as mulch application, are commonly used after high to moderate wildfire severity. Local, site-specific solutions are needed to mitigate wildfire effects in this context. This research aims to study the effect of mulches (from on-site sources) on soil and hydrological properties. We hypothesised that mulch application would increase soil quality and reduce erosion and runoff yield. During July 2019, about 900 ha of Pinus halepensins Mil. forest, abandoned grazing and agricultural olive groves (Olea europea L.) were affected by a moderate to high wildfire in the hinterland of Šibenik City (Croatia, 43°45'N 15°56'E, 105 m a.s.l.). Twenty-five days after the wildfire occurrence, unmulched (UM, control) and two mulch treatments (Olea europea leaves (OM) and Pinus halepensis needles (PM) were applied for post-fire stabilisation on Cambisols. One treatment covered an ~10 m2 area with 0.5. kg m2 mulch application which was measured on the experimental plots. Prior to mulch application, 15 (5 per treatment) metal rings (0.2 m2) with connected plastic collectors were set up on sloped terrain (~9°) to monitor erosion and runoff yield. Soil samples were collected every three months, and erosion and runoff yield after major precipitation events during two years. The studied soil properties were: soil water repetency (SWR), soil hydraulic conductivity (SHC), mean weight diameter (MWD), water stability of aggregates (WSA), soil organic matter (SOM), total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN), extractable potassium (K2O), and available (P2O5). Our results showed that both mulch treatments reduce runoff generation in addition to UM treatment. The erosion yield was not occurred due to natural soil conditions. A linear decreasing trend was noted for SWR in all treatments. Overall, PM was showed higher efficiency in increasing soil aggregate stability (MWD and WSA), SHC SOM, and TC. OM has mostly increased soil nutrients such as TN, P2O5, and K2O. Bot mulch treatment increased soil quality, but the effect was variable due to the different chemical compositions of the material. The use of native mulch can be recommended because it improves soil quality and reduces runoff ratio. However, consideration should be given to whether they are available in the areas affected by wildfire.

Abstract The localized creep failure in the heat-affected zone (HAZ) of Grade 91 steel weldments has been identified as one of the most important factors causing significantly shortened service lifetime and structural integrity issues of welded components in advanced fossil and nuclear power plants. To conduct a reliable creep lifetime assessment, a new engineering assessment approach has been developed by incorporating the experimentally determined local properties of the heterogeneous HAZ. By creep testing a purposely simulated HAZ specimen with in situ digital image correlation (DIC) technique, the highly gradient creep properties across the HAZ of Grade 91 steel was quantitatively measured. A physical creep cavitation constitutive model was proposed to investigate the local creep deformation and damage accumulation within the heterogeneous HAZ, which takes into account the nucleation of creep cavities and their growth by both grain boundary diffusion and creep deformation. The relationship among the local material property, creep strain accumulation, and evolution characteristic of creep cavities was established. The approach was then utilized to investigate the creep response and subsequent life for an ex-service 9% Cr steel weldment by incorporating the effects of pre-existing damages which developed and accumulated during long-term services. The predicted results exhibited quantitative agreement with the DIC measurement in terms of both nominal/local creep deformation as well as the subsequent life under the test conditions at 650 and 80 MPa.

<p>Robustness is the ability of systems to survive unforeseen or unusual circumstances, allowing them to withstand local damage and redistribute stresses to reduce disruptions from component failures. It may be measured by calculating the probability of system failure when specific components fail, compared to the overall system reliability. However, treating robustness and reliability as opposites can be misleading. To clarify, recent methods suggest plotting reliability and robustness separately on a Reliability-vs-Redundancy plot, allowing for a simultaneous quantification of both aspects. This paper applies Reliability-vs-Redundancy plots to several exemplificatory case studies, to (1) illustrate patterns for simple structures, (2) show effects of various initiating events (like vehicle impacts) associated with different probabilities of occurrence, and (3) incorporate risk aspects by accounting for costs/consequences of failure, which may include disruptions to the wider network.</p>

Abstract From experimental evaluation of oil and gas field materials a synergy between the formation of dark sulfide layers and hydrogen supported sulfide stress cracking is frequently reported in literature. The present work describes a first approach to a deterministic H2S-corrosion model for calculation of precipitation of FeS2 together with respective changes of pH at the anodic sites of the assumed corrosion system for pure Fe. The model is based on coupling the calculated anodic polarization curves to the precipitated equilibrium masses of Fe3O4 and FeS2 which in a “closed loop” time stepwise procedure are calculated from the solute concentrations. The results show that as a consequence of FeS2 precipitation the local pH at the anodic site is reduced together with the changes of total concentrations of HS-, Fe++ and H+ in the assumed diffusion layer. Also, the respective changes in corrosion currents and potentials are demonstrated. With increasing bulk pH and total pressures the acidification times from the start of the process to a local pH of 2.5 (t pH2.5) increase while the respective mean corrosion currents are reduced. At higher pH levels increasing H2S – contents lead to significant reductions in acidification times as well as corrosion currents. This effect is however smaller at lower total pressures. The calculated pH reductions follow a similar course of experimentally measured pH-levels during precipitation of iron sulfides in a 0.5 bar H2S-5g/l Na2SO4-solution at galvanostatic loading with 0.8 mA/cm2 in a closed cell. As a summarizing result an example of a pH-vol.-% H2S domain diagram for constant total pressures, pH-reduction times is established and discussed with respect to effects of anodically accumulated hydrogen on cracking processes.

A study was undertaken to evaluate crack arrestor and mainline block valve (MLBV) spacing distances beyond the limits defined in the 49 CFR Part 192 for Class 1 locations for the design of a 42-inch (1,067-mm) OD arctic pipeline. The study assessed whether an MLBV spacing longer than that required by 49 CFR Part 192 for Class 1 locations can provide a level of safety equivalent to that afforded by the spacing recommended in the code. This was accomplished by comparing the hazards in terms of the volume of natural gas released over time, the potential for damage to surrounding structures, and the life safety risk to personnel and the public. The analysis was performed using the software tool PIPESAFE (version 2.20.0), which was developed for a group of pipeline operators by Advantica Technology (now DNV-GL). A full transient analysis of the flow inside the pipeline and through the rupture opening was carried out with automatic shut-off valve (ASV) closures simulated as boundary condition changes at the locations of the valves triggered by the local transient pressure. Gas outflow rates were fed to a structured flame model that calculates the temperature distribution within the flame and the radiant energy emitted and uses the latter to determine the incident thermal radiation field in the area surrounding the rupture, the associated hazard areas and the accumulated thermal radiation dosage over time. These results were compiled into contour plots of thermal radiation intensity for different times; plots of the total area within specific contours of thermal radiation intensity for different times; and plots of the total area within specific contours of accumulated dosage. The dosage-area curves facilitate a direct comparison of the various MLBV and crack arrestor spacing options considered within this study by providing a simple means to establish if the change in spacing causes a substantial change to the affected areas for dosages up to the limits associated with specific levels of lethality to humans and for piloted ignition of wooden structures. It was found that valve spacing has a strong effect on the time at which closure begins to affect the outflow rate. The decline in flow rate after valve closure had significant influence on the thermal radiation field, but these effects only occurred at a relatively late stage. Increasing fracture length led to considerable changes in the shape of the thermal radiation field, but the total footprint within which casualties might be expected in the event of an ignited rupture release and the severity of injuries within the footprint are unaffected by valve closure under the assumed conditions. Similarly, the damage potential to surrounding buildings was unaffected by valve spacing, indicating that increased valve spacing could be implemented in remote, low population density areas without affecting safety.

Gas turbines for power generation are exposed to a variety of ambient conditions and are therefore bound to breathe contaminated airflow, thus degrading the engines internal gas path. In particular, accumulated debris on the compressor blades reduces engine efficiency. To recover this performance loss, online compressor washes may be performed. Cleaning fluid is injected through the nozzles upstream of the compressor to wash off the debris from the blades. This paper presents a numerical study of a generic compressor washing system based on an application case for a heavy duty gas turbine power plant. The inlet duct of the engine was modeled and droplet trajectories were calculated. Different spray patterns including single jet and full cone have been investigated for different ranges of injection velocity and droplet size. The spray angle was evaluated experimentally and was used to model the full cone spray pattern. The boundary conditions for the airflow were iterated with a performance simulation tool to match pressure loss and mass flow. To investigate the effect of different operating conditions on the airflow and spray distribution, an installation scenario of the engine at altitude on a hot summer day was modeled. The scenario was based on a review of plant installations and local meteorological conditions. Fluid concentration plots at the compressor inlet plane were evaluated for the different computational cases. Generally with lower injection momentum, the water droplets were significantly deflected by the main airflow. Higher injection velocity and droplet size reduced the effect of the main airflow. Different operating conditions and the significant change of air mass flow affected the spray distribution of the washing system at the compressor inlet. This can be compensated by adjusting the injection angles.

In Accumulated Double-Sided Incremental Forming (ADSIF), two hemispherical tools impart the local deformation to the sheet via their programmed in-plane spiral motion and the depth of the part is achieved via rigid body motion of the already formed part. Unlike Single Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) and Double-Sided Incremental Forming (DSIF), ADSIF does not impose forces on the already-formed part and therefore, has the potential of achieving higher geometric accuracy. A systematic method is proposed in this work to study the influences of the relative tool positions on the local formed shape and the final geometry, which is essentially the accumulation of all previously formed local deformations. Meanwhile, the concepts of the stable angle and the peak angle are introduced to better describe the cross-sectional geometry of a formed part with a constant wall angle at that particular cross-section. It is recommended, while multiple combinations of the relative positions of two forming tools may achieve the same stable angle, that the positioning parameters should be chosen such that the resultant forming force or the wall angle variation between the stable and peak angles is minimized.

The effects of load history on component fracture behaviour have been studied at length in terms of the generation and resulting influence of residual stresses. Despite this, the effect of plastic strain history, separate from the generation of residual stresses, is still not clearly defined. This work presents an investigation into the effect of accumulated strain on subsequent fracture behaviour. The effects of load history on low temperature cleavage fracture are modelled by means of a number of local approach methods, accounting for variations in stress and strain throughout the component’s load history. Prior strain was found to reduce the mean fracture load of 20mm thick CT specimens, irrespective of the level of room temperature strain applied. Local approach methods, calibrated to low and high constraint fracture data, were able to correctly predict a reduction in fracture load, although the exact magnitude of the reduced loads were not always correctly resolved. Further experimental data and further work on model formulation is needed to confirm the conclusions drawn here.

We have carried out experiments on the one-directional freezing of an aqueous solution of winter flounder antifreeze protein in a narrow gap between two cover glasses. The motion of the ice/solution interface has been observed with an inverted microscope. The solution has been cooled by a Peltier device. The local change in protein concentration has been estimated from the measured intensity of fluorescence from molecules tagged to the protein. It is found that highly-concentrated regions of the protein can be observed in the bottom edge of the serrated interface. These regions interact with the interface, though most of the protein diffuses due to the concentration gradient. The diffusion velocity is much lower than the interface velocity. Thus, the protein is accumulated near the interface.

Incremental forming is a flexible dieless forming process. In incremental forming, the metal sheet is clamped around its periphery. One or multiple generic stylus-type tools move along a predefined toolpath, incrementally deforming the sheet metal into a final, freeform shape. Compared with the traditional sheet metal forming process, the incremental forming process is more flexible, energy efficient and cost effective due to lower capital investment related to tooling. However, maintaining tight geometric tolerances in incremental formed parts can be a challenge. Specifically, undesired global bending is usually induced near the region between the tools and fixture resulting in a compromise in geometric accuracy. To address this issue, Accumulated Double-Sided Incremental Forming (ADSIF) is proposed, which utilizes two tools on both sides of the metal to better achieve localized deformation while simultaneously constraining global bending outside the forming area. Moreover, in ADSIF, the two tools are moving from inward to outward, and thus the tools are always forming virgin material and so as to limit forces on the already-formed part. Thus, ADSIF has a higher potential to achieve the desired geometry. Nevertheless, tool deflection due to machine compliance is still an issue that can have a considerable effect on geometric accuracy. In this work, the effect of tool deflection related to part geometry is studied for the ADSIF process. The nature of using two tools, rather than one, in ADSIF inherently implies that relative tool position is a critical process parameter. It is the region near these two tools where local squeezing and bending of the sheet occurs, the primary modes of deformation found in ADSIF. The change of relative tool positions (i.e., tool gap and relative position angle) are studied in detail by first developing an analytical model. It is concluded that the tool gap will be enlarged under the influence of tool compliance while the relative position angle is less affected. Additionally, a finite element simulation capable of modeling tool deflection is established. The comparison between the simulation results using rigid tools and deformable ones clearly demonstrated the significant influence of tool compliance on part geometry. Lastly, an axisymmetric part with varying wall angles was formed, and it was confirmed that ADSIF demonstrates improved geometry accuracy compared with conventional Double-Sided Incremental Forming.

The results of an investigation of the three-dimensional flow downstream of a transonic turbine cascade are presented. The investigation was carried out for a wide range of Mach numbers, extending from M2is = 0.2 up to 1.55. Measurements were made in five planes at different axial locations downstream of the trailing edge (covering more than one chord length), by using a miniaturized five hole probe especially designed for transonic flows. The results are presented in terms of local loss coefficient, vorticity and secondary velocity plots; these plots give a detailed picture of the secondary flow development downstream of the cascade and show how flow compressibility influences the vortex configuration. As Mach number increases, the passage vortex is found to migrate towards the endwall and secondary flow effects are more confined in the endwall region. The pitchwise mass averaged loss and flow angle distributions along the blade height appear to be affected by the expansion ratio; at high Mach number both underturning and overturning angles are found to be smaller than in low velocity flows. Overall losses, vorticity and secondary kinetic energy versus Mach number are also presented and discussed.

This report presents results of upland vegetation and soil monitoring of semi-arid grasslands at three Parks by the Southern Colorado Plateau Inventory and Monitoring Network (SCPN) from 2007?2021. The purpose is to compare and contrast five grassland ecological sites and examine how they have changed during the first 15 years of monitoring. Crews collected data on composition and abundance of vegetation, both at the species level and by lifeform (e.g., perennial grass, shrub, forb) and soil aggregate stability and soil texture at 150 plots within five target grassland/shrubland communities delineated using NRCS ecological site (ecosite) classification (30 plots per ecosite). Soils in plots at Petrified Forest NP and Chaco Culture NHP were deeper than those at Wupatki NM. Undifferentiated soil crust comprised the largest component of the soil surface, except at Wupatki where surface gravel dominated. Cover of biological soil crust (cyanobacteria, lichen, and moss) was low. Soil aggregate stability was moderate. From 2007?2021, SCPN crews identified 283 unique plant species. Overall live foliar cover ranged from 12-24%. Four of five ecological sites were dominated by C4 grass species (>70% of total live foliar cover). Shrubs co-dominated at one site (WUPA L) and forbs were an overall small component of total vegetation cover but contributed most of the diversity in these sites. Less than 4% of species detected were nonnative. Russian thistle (Salsola tragus) was the most frequently sampled nonnative, occurring in > 50% of plots at Wupatki in the volcanic upland ecological site. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) was the second most common invasive species but occurred in < 10% of the plots at all ecological sites. Vegetation cover was modeled using Bayesian hierarchical models and included seasonal climatic water deficits, year effects and topographic variables as covariates. Models revealed significant negative time trends (i.e., changes over time that were not explained by changes in seasonal deficit covariates included) in some modeled responses, particularly in the cover of perennial grass at all five ecological sites. Time trends in shrub and forb responses were mixed. Species richness showed variable effects by ecosite, decreasing at CHCU S, and increasing at PEFO S and WUPA V. Modeled responses were influenced by climate covariates, but direction of these effects varied. The most consistent effects were that greater July water stress and higher accumulated growing degree days (i.e., warmer spring temperatures) increased cover of perennial grasses and shrubs during the same year. However, greater water stress in the spring had a negative effect on many responses as expected. Decreasing cover of perennial grass and increasing cover of shrubs and weedy forbs has been predicted for southwestern grasslands in response to increasing aridification due to anthropogenic climate change. Perennial grass trends reported here correspond with these predictions with mixed results on shrub and forb community trends. Continued drought conditions will likely exacerbate negative changes in these systems.

This paper provides a comprehensive early warning system (EWS) that balances the classical signaling approach with the best-realized machine learning (ML) model for predicting fiscal stress episodes. Using accumulated local effects (ALE), we compute a set of thresholds for the most informative variables that drive the correlation between predictors. In addition, to evaluate the main country risks, we propose a leading fiscal risk indicator, highlighting macro, fiscal and institutional attributes. Estimates from different models suggest significant heterogeneity among the most critical variables in determining fiscal risk across countries. While macro variables have higher relevance for advanced countries, fiscal variables were more significant for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) and emerging economies. These results are consistent under different liquidity-solvency metrics and have deepened since the global financial crisis.

Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus type 2 (RHDV2) has caused dramatic declines in rabbits and hares on several continents, with cascading effects on local ecology. Recent mortalities have been reported for several rabbit and hare species in the United States, suggesting broad susceptibility of lagomorphs. If this susceptibility extends to the American pika (Ochotona princeps), the most cold-adapted lagomorph, it could compound climate-mediated threats to this species. Due to climate change, American pikas are predicted to experience significant upslope range retraction during this century. Using an analogy borrowed from wildfire scenarios, other lagomorph species occurring at lower and mid-elevations could act as ?ladder fuels? to wick RHDV2 into high-elevation pika populations. To address this concern, we investigated spatial patterns of habitat use by pikas and other lagomorphs in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GRSA), which borders several counties that have reported RHDV2. In 2022, we surveyed 115 plots from a spatially balanced sample of pika habitats in the park, including 48 legacy plots from a pika survey conducted in 2010-2012. Pika detections at the plot level were paired with topographic and environmental indices to estimate minimum habitat occupancy and determine its covariates. Leporid (rabbit and hare) detections at these same plots were used to model presence using similar covariates and correcting for imperfect detection. Our best-supported models of pika and leporid presence were then used to estimate the probability of contact between these taxa within the park. Our mean estimate of pika habitat occupancy was at least 95% during 2022 in GRSA, slightly higher than in 2010-2012, and effects of elevation and precipitation on pika occupancy were as expected from the previous study. Leporid presence at these same plots was 48% after correcting for imperfect detection. The best model of leporid presence supported a negative effect of elevation, in agreement with other studies of these taxa. The best pika and leporid models also included a positive effect of incoming solar radiation. Finally, we used our best models of pika habitat occupancy and leporid presence within the park to map the potential for areas of contact and RHDV2 transmission between these taxa. Our results indicate some potential for contact within subalpine forests, Specifically in the northern half of the park near the lower reach of the Sand Creek Trail and in the far south just north of California Peak.

Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus type 2 (RHDV2) has caused dramatic declines in rabbits and hares on several continents, with cascading effects on local ecology. Recent mortalities have been reported for several rabbit and hare species in the United States, suggesting broad susceptibility of lagomorphs. If this susceptibility extends to the American pika (Ochotona princeps), the most cold-adapted lagomorph, it could compound climate-mediated threats to this species. Due to climate change, American pikas are predicted to experience significant upslope range retraction during this century. Using an analogy borrowed from wildfire scenarios, other lagomorph species occurring at lower and mid-elevations could act as ?ladder fuels? to wick RHDV2 into high-elevation pika populations. To address this concern, we investigated spatial patterns of habitat use by pikas and other lagomorphs in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GRSA), which borders several counties that have reported RHDV2. In 2022, we surveyed 115 plots from a spatially balanced sample of pika habitats in the park, including 48 legacy plots from a pika survey conducted in 2010-2012. Pika detections at the plot level were paired with topographic and environmental indices to estimate minimum habitat occupancy and determine its covariates. Leporid (rabbit and hare) detections at these same plots were used to model presence using similar covariates and correcting for imperfect detection. Our best-supported models of pika and leporid presence were then used to estimate the probability of contact between these taxa within the park. Our mean estimate of pika habitat occupancy was at least 95% during 2022 in GRSA, slightly higher than in 2010-2012, and effects of elevation and precipitation on pika occupancy were as expected from the previous study. Leporid presence at these same plots was 48% after correcting for imperfect detection. The best model of leporid presence supported a negative effect of elevation, in agreement with other studies of these taxa. The best pika and leporid models also included a positive effect of incoming solar radiation. Finally, we used our best models of pika habitat occupancy and leporid presence within the park to map the potential for areas of contact and RHDV2 transmission between these taxa. Our results indicate some potential for contact within subalpine forests, Specifically in the northern half of the park near the lower reach of the Sand Creek Trail and in the far south just north of California Peak.

Binned scatter plots are a powerful statistical tool for empirical work in the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences. Available methods rely on a quantile-based partitioning estimator of the conditional mean regression function to primarily construct flexible yet interpretable visualization methods, but they can also be used to estimate treatment effects, assess uncertainty, and test substantive domain-specific hypotheses. This paper introduces novel binscatter methods based on nonlinear, possibly nonsmooth M-estimation methods, covering generalized linear, robust, and quantile regression models. We provide a host of theoretical results and practical tools for local constant estimation along with piecewise polynomial and spline approximations, including (i) optimal tuning parameter (number of bins) selection, (ii) confidence bands, and (iii) formal statistical tests regarding functional form or shape restrictions. Our main results rely on novel strong approximations for general partitioning-based estimators covering random, data-driven partitions, which may be of independent interest. We demonstrate our methods with an empirical application studying the relation between the percentage of individuals without health insurance and per capita income at the zip-code level. We provide general-purpose software packages implementing our methods in Python, R, and Stata.

In July 2021, the Rhine-Meuse region straddling Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands was affected by devastating floods that have led to the loss of more than 240 lives and damage worth billions of Euros. The event was closely watched by regional agencies that had to organize response and recovery, and also received noticeable global attention. Diverse sets of responses and reflections accumulated among researchers, local and regional governments, local and international media, development organizations, public offices and citizen groups, wherein links to climate change and gaps in our preparedness for unexpected, extreme events were a common element of the discourse. In response to the floods, and in recognition of the cross-border effects of climate change, the United Nations University institutes in Belgium (UNU-CRIS), Germany (UNU-EHS) and the Netherlands (UNU-MERIT) have launched the “UNU Climate Resilience Initiative” with the aim to share knowledge, shape policy and drive action – and ultimately shift the focus from risk to proactive adaptation, innovation and transformation. Within the context of this initiative, researchers from the three institutes have conducted research in the flood affected areas and organized the two-day “Flood Knowledge Summit 2022: From Risks to Resilience”, which took place from 7 to 8 July 2022 in Maastricht, the Netherlands. Complementing existing national initiatives and efforts in the three countries, the event aimed to connect different actors – including affected citizens, first responders, authorities, researchers and civil society – from the region, the European Union (EU) and the Global South to share experiences, engage in dialogue and facilitate learning regarding how to strengthen climate resilience for all. This summit served to map various efforts to understand the data, information, governance and knowledge gaps at national, subnational and regional levels in order to address growing risks of climate change, including how to adapt to not only climate-induced extreme events like floods but also other hazard events, and created a regional momentum to support multidimensional efforts towards building resilience. Drawing on our research and outcomes of the Flood Knowledge Summit 2022, the UNU Climate Resilience Initiative has identified five key areas in which further research and action is needed to tackle climate risks and facilitate pathways towards climate resilience.

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño

1.1 Macroeconomic summary In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3%. Inflationary surprises in the third quarter were significant and widespread, and they are the result of several shocks. On the one hand, international cost and price shocks, which have mainly affected goods and foods, continue to exert upwards pressure on national inflation. In addition to these external supply shocks, domestic supply shocks have also affected foods. On the other hand, the strong recovery of aggregate demand, especially for private consumption and for machinery and equipment, as well as a higher accumulated depreciation of the Colombian peso and its pass-through to domestic prices also explain the rise in inflation. Indexation also contributes, both through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and through the Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to have a significant impact on electricity prices and, to a lesser degree, on other public utilities and rent. In comparison with July’s report, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) is higher in the forecast horizon, mainly due to exchange rate pressures, higher excess demand, and indexation at higher inflation rates, but it maintains a trend of convergence towards the target. In the case of food, a good domestic supply of perishable foods and some moderation in international processed food prices are still expected. However, the technical staff estimates higher pressures on this group’s prices from labor costs, raw material prices, and exchange rates. In terms of the CPI for regulated items, the new forecast supposes reductions in electricity prices at the end of the year, but the effects of indexation at higher inflation rates and the expected rises in fuel prices would continue to push this CPI group. Therefore, the new projection suggests that, in December, inflation would reach 11.3% and would decrease throughout 2023 and 2024, closing the year at 7.1% and 3.5%, respectively. These forecasts have a high level of uncertainty, due especially to the future behavior of international financial conditions, external price and cost shocks, the persistence of depreciation of the Colombian peso, the pace of adjustment of domestic demand, the indexation degree of nominal contracts, and the decisions that would be made regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices. Economic activity continues to surprise on the upside, and the projection of growth for 2022 rose from 6.9% to 7.9% but lowered for 2023 from 1.1% to 0.5%. Thus, excess demand is higher than estimated in the previous report, and it would diminish in 2023. Economic growth in the second quarterwas higher than estimated in July due to stronger domestic demand, mainly because of private consumption. Economic activity indicators for the third quarter suggest that the GDP would stay at a high level, above its potential, with an annual change of 6.4%, and 0.6% higher than observed in the second quarter. Nevertheless, these numbers reflect deceleration in its quarterly and annual growth. Domestic demand would show similar behavior, with a high value, higher than that of output. This can be explained partly by the strong behavior of private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In the third quarter, investment in construction would have continued with mediocre performance, which would still place it at levels lower than those observed before the pandemic. The trade deficit would have widened due to high imports with a stronger trend than that for exports. It is expected that, in the forecast horizon, consumption would decrease from its current high levels, partly as a consequence of tighter domestic financial conditions, lower repressed demand, higher exchange rate pressures on imported goods prices, and the deterioration of actual income due to the rise in inflation. Investment would continue to lag behind, without reaching the levels observed before the pandemic, in a context of high financing costs and high uncertainty. A lower projected behavior in domestic demand and the high levels of prices for oil and other basic goods that the country exports would be reflected in a reduction in the trade deficit. Due to all of this, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would be 7.9%, 0.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. Expected excess demand (measured via the output gap) is estimated to be higher than contemplated in the previous report; it would diminish in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024. These estimates remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to global political tension, a rise in international interest rates, and the effects of this rise on demand and financial conditions abroad. In the domestic context, the evolution of fiscal policy as well as future measures regarding economic policy and their possible effects on macroeconomic imbalances in the country, among others, are factors that generate uncertainty and affect risk premia, the exchange rate, investment, and the country’s economic activity. Interest rates at several of the world’s main central banks continue to rise, some at a pace higher than expected by the market. This is in response to the high levels of inflation and their inflation expectations, which continue to exceed the targets. Thus, global growth projections are still being moderated, risk premia have risen, and the dollar continues to gain strength against other main currencies. International pressures on global inflation have heightened. In the United States, core inflation has not receded, pressured by the behavior of the CPI for services and a tight labor market. Consequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to increase the policy interest rate at a strong pace. This rate is expected to now reach higher levels than projected in the previous quarter. Other developed and emerging economies have also increased their policy interest rates. Thus, international financial conditions have tightened significantly, which reflects in a widespread strengthening of the dollar, increases in worldwide risk premia, and the devaluation of risky assets. Recently, these effects have been stronger in Colombia than in the majority of its peers in the region. Considering all of the aforementioned, the technical staff of the bank increased its assumption regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate, reduced the country’s external demand growth forecast, and raised the projected trajectory for the risk premium. The latter remains elevated at higher levels than its historical average, within a context of high local uncertainty and of extensive financing needs from the foreign sector and the public sector. All of this results in higher inflationary pressures associated to the depreciation of the Colombian peso. The uncertainty regarding external forecasts and its impact on the country remain elevated, given the unforeseeable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of geopolitical tensions, and of the tightening of external financial conditions, among others. A macroeconomic context of high inflation, inflation expectations and forecasts above 3%, and a positive output gap suggests the need for contractionary monetary policy, compatible with the macroeconomic adjustment necessary to eliminate excess demand, mitigate the risk of unanchoring in inflation expectations, and guarantee convergence of inflation at the target. In comparison with the July report forecasts, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed output level that surpasses the economy’s productive capacity. Headline and core inflation have registered surprising rises, associated with the effects of domestic and external price shocks that were more persistent than anticipated, with excess demand and indexation processes in some CPI groups. The country’s risk premium and the observed and expected international interest rates increased. As a consequence of this, inflationary pressures from the exchange rate rose, and in this report, the probability of the neutral real interest rate being higher than estimated increased. In general, inflation expectations for all terms and the bank’s technical staff inflation forecast for 2023 increased again and continue to stray from 3%. All of the aforementioned elevated the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could heighten widespread indexation processes that push inflation away from the target for a longer time. In this context, it is necessary to consolidate a contractionary monetary policy that tends towards convergence of inflation at the target in the forecast horizon and towards the reduction of excess demand in order to guarantee a sustainable output level trajectory. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its September and October of 2022 meetings, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. In September, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), and in its October meeting, unanimously, by 100bps. Therefore, the rate is at 11.0%. Boxes 1 Food inflation: a comparison with other countries