Academic literature on the topic 'Activity rates'

This paper investigates the wealth effects of the consumer price index, interest rate, domestic credit and real economic activity on the Amman Stock Exchange performance. Over the period 1991–2020 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. While the interest rate is a powerful monetary tool to fight inflation and recession, it can be detrimental to investors. The target variables, consumer price index (CPI) and interest rate (IDR), are both highly significant with the correct signs. An increase of 1 percent in CPI and IDR leads to a fall in stock prices by 1.6 percent and 5 percent, respectively. While the central bank is targeting inflation by raising interest rates, its actions reflect negatively on the stock market. The short-run model confirms the causality from the independent variables to the dependent variable. Moreover, the error correction term (ECT) is very high and significant at the 1 percent level amounting to 83.3 percent, which confirms the evidence of the long-run relationship. Monetary objectives are really important, but financial stability is also important.

Class of 2013 Abstract
Specific Aims: To assess the association between marginal tax rates (MTR) and innovative output of biotechnology firms. The MTR plays an important role in firms’ financing choices. Assessment of a firm’s tax status may reveal how firms decide on investment policies that affect R&D. Methods: A retrospective database analysis was used. Subjects included were firms within the biotechnology sector with the Standard Industrial Classification code of 2836 from 1980 - 2011. MTR Data was obtained from the S&P Compustat database, and Patent data was obtained from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Changes in MTR’s on outcomes of patents were analyzed by performing an inferential analysis. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used, specifically utilizing a GEE regression with a negative binomial distributional family with log link, independent correlation structure and robust standard error variance calculation. Patents were regressed by the lagged change in MTR, after interest deductions. Main Results: The lag years 2 and 5 of the MTR change were statistically significant, (p = 0.031) and (p = 0.026) for each model respectively. Every one unit increase in the change of the MTRs was associated with large and significant drops in patents 78.8% (IRR = 0.212), 90.7% (IRR = 0.093), 92.7% (IRR = 0.073) at year 2 lag and 84.8% (IRR = 0.152), 92.6% (IRR = 0.074) at year 5 lag. Conclusion: An increase in the change of the MTR results in significant drops in patenting activity.

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between keeping a daily leisure-time physical activity record and adolescent (a) feelings of competence toward leisure-time physical activity, (b) motivational profiles toward leisure-time physical activity, and (c) leisure-time physical activity behaviors. Participants were 124 junior high and high school physical education (PE) students. Students completed the Behavioural Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire–2, the Godin Leisure–Time Exercise Questionnaire, the Perceived Competence Scale, and were assigned to keep an online leisure-time physical activity record for three weeks as part of their regular PE class. A 2 (gender) x 4 (trials) repeated measures ANCOVA was used to examine the relationships between recording compliance and the variables of perceived competence, motivation, and physical activity. Results showed a significant interaction between recording compliance and leisure-time physical activity. As students kept the leisure-time physical activity record, boys' leisure-time physical activity levels significantly increased and girls' leisure-time physical activity levels significantly decreased. Also, a significant interaction between recording compliance and introjected regulation was found. The more students recorded the less motivated they were by guilt and obligation to exercise in their leisure time. Lastly a significant interaction was found between recording compliance and intrinsic regulation, showing that the more students recorded the more intrinsically motivated they were to exercise in their leisure time. Implications and suggestions are set forth for PE professionals.

Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.

We investigate whether and to what extent the adoption of an intellectual property box increases innovative activity and the extent to which different types of firms benefit financially. We examine the adoption of the intellectual property box in Belgium because it allows us to cleanly identify the impact on innovative activity and effective tax rates. Our results indicate an overall increase in innovative activity as proxied by patent applications, grants, and highly-skilled employment, at the expense of patent quality. We also provide evidence that firms with patents on average enjoy 7.2% to 7.9% lower effective tax rates, with the greatest financial benefits accruing to multinational firms compared to domestic firms. Within multinational firms, those without income shifting opportunities appear to benefit more than other multinationals with income shifting opportunities.
Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Series

Music is used and can be found in everyday life and throughout society. With many studies pointing towards music being a motivating stimulus for exercise, it is plausible that music would positively affect the physical activity rates of junior high school students in physical education classes. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of popular music on physical activity rates, via pedometry, and enjoyment levels of junior high physical education students. There were 305 junior high physical education students that participated in the study with 151 being male and 154 being female. This was a quasi-experimental study using a two conditions, with and without music, by two activities, basketball and volleyball, cross-over design. It is found that across all grades and gender, more steps were taken with music in both activities versus without music. No statistically significant differences are noted in time in activity between activities with music than without. When comparing the level of enjoyment of the activities with music versus without across genders and all grades, the level of enjoyment is higher with music than without, though the difference is not statistically significant. While statistically significant differences can be found and attributed to the very nature of the differences between volleyball and basketball, there are also several statistical significances found that can be described and attributed to the intervention of the use of music during that activity. Therefore, if teachers are looking for a way for their students to increase step counts and increase the level of enjoyment their students feel throughout an activity, adding music to the background of the activity will help teachers to achieve those goals.

Although the causes and pathology of the progression of osteoarthritis are not entirely understood, an active lifestyle avoiding excessive load on the joints can control symptoms of osteoarthritis (e.g. joint pain and stiffness). The aim of this thesis was to develop, validate, and test an algorithm for estimating impact loading through the lower limbs using wearables (smartphones and smartwatches). The viscoelastic nature of articular cartilage means it is susceptible to high load rates, hence, the mean load rate magnitude was estimated from accelerometer recordings of wearables and used as a surrogate for estimating impact loading on the lower limb joints. The validity of the mean load rate magnitude was assessed against the gold standard equipment, the force plate (R² = 0.77). Further, the mean load rate magnitude was used as a feature in the classification of everyday activities with support vector machine classifiers with an accuracy of 80%. An app was then developed which monitored mean load rate magnitude using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for testing the reliability of monitoring over a period of seven days. The accumulated mean load rate magnitude was used to estimate the error, ê_smartphone = 2.66%, for seven-day recordings. Finally, a function to score pain was added to the final version of the app, termed OAppTM. A single case study assessed the ability of OAppTM to compare osteoarthritis-related pain to mean load rate magnitude with a low positive correlation of r = 0.38. To conclude, this thesis developed, assessed the validation, and tested a load rate magnitude algorithm, which estimated load rate on the lower limb joints with the accelerometer sensors of wearables. These results form the basis for further research to develop a clinical tool for monitoring load rate and supporting patients to maintain an active lifestyle by avoiding excessive load on their lower limb joints.

DNA (class 2) transposons are mobile genetic elements which move within their 'host' genome through excising and re-inserting elsewhere. Although the rice genome contains tens of thousands of such elements, their actual role in evolution is still unclear. Analysing over 650 transposon polymorphisms in the rice species Oryza sativa and Oryza glaberrima, we find that DNA repair following transposon excisions is associated with an increased number of mutations in the sequences neighbouring the transposon. Indeed, the 3,000 bp flanking the excised transposons can contain over 10 times more mutations than the genome-wide average. Since DNA transposons preferably insert near genes, this is correlated with increases in mutation rates in coding sequences and regulatory regions. Most importantly, we find this phenomenon also in maize, wheat and barley. Thus, these findings suggest that DNA transposon activity is a major evolutionary force in grasses which provide the basis of most food consumed by humankind.

The scope of mid-life refurbishment activities at some CANDU plants includes replacement of the existing steam generators. Shipment of the discarded steam generators for interim storage, intact disposal or for recycling via metal melting requires an assessment of dose rates and the inventory of radionuclides within the components. Kinectrics was contracted by CANDU utility owners to develop such data. This paper presents the detailed methodology employed to develop dose rate and radionuclide inventory data for radionuclides within both in-service and the out-of-service (in-storage) steam generators. The data were developed as follows: a) archived tube sections from various steam generators were characterized; scaling factors were derived using the detailed alpha and beta activity data obtained, b) in-situ gamma spectrometry (using germanium and cadmium zinc telluride detectors) and dose rate surveys were performed at various steam generators and c) a detailed assessment of the tritium inventory in various primary and secondary side components was performed.

experimental methods for quantifying effects of water content and other dynamic environmental factors on bacterial growth in partially-saturated soils. Towards this end we reviewed critically the relevant scientific literature and performed theoretical and experimental studies of bacterial growth and activity in modeled, idealized and real unsaturated soils. The natural wetting-drying cycles common to agricultural soils affect water content and liquid organization resulting in fragmentation of aquatic habitats and limit hydraulic connections. Consequently, substrate diffusion pathways to soil microbial communities become limiting and reduce nutrient fluxes, microbial growth, and mobility. Key elements that govern the extent and manifestation of such ubiquitous interactions include characteristics of diffusion pathways and pore space, the timing, duration, and extent of environmental perturbations, the nature of microbiological adjustments (short-term and longterm), and spatial distribution and properties of EPS clusters (microcolonies). Of these key elements we have chosen to focus on a manageable subset namely on modeling microbial growth and coexistence on simple rough surfaces, and experiments on bacterial growth in variably saturated sand samples and columns. Our extensive review paper providing a definitive “snap-shot” of present scientific understanding of microbial behavior in unsaturated soils revealed a lack of modeling tools that are essential for enhanced predictability of microbial processes in soils. We therefore embarked on two pronged approach of development of simple microbial growth models based on diffusion-reaction principles to incorporate key controls for microbial activity in soils such as diffusion coefficients and temporal variations in soil water content (and related substrate diffusion rates), and development of new methodologies in support of experiments on microbial growth in simple and observable porous media under controlled water status conditions. Experimental efforts led to a series of microbial growth experiments in granular media under variable saturation and ambient conditions, and introduction of atomic force microscopy (AFM) and confocal scanning laser microscopy (CSLM) to study cell size, morphology and multi-cell arrangement at a high resolution from growth experiments in various porous media. The modeling efforts elucidated important links between unsaturated conditions and microbial coexistence which is believed to support the unparallel diversity found in soils. We examined the role of spatial and temporal variation in hydration conditions (such as exist in agricultural soils) on local growth rates and on interactions between two competing microbial species. Interestingly, the complexity of soil spaces and aquatic niches are necessary for supporting a rich microbial diversity and the wide array of microbial functions in unsaturated soils. This project supported collaboration between soil physicists and soil microbiologist that is absolutely essential for making progress in both disciplines. It provided a few basic tools (models, parameterization) for guiding future experiments and for gathering key information necessary for prediction of biological processes in agricultural soils. The project sparked a series of ongoing studies (at DTU and EPFL and in the ARO) into effects of soil hydration dynamics on microbial survival strategy under short term and prolonged desiccation (important for general scientific and agricultural applications).

This study investigates the dynamic impact of social distancing policy on COVID-19 infection control, mobility of people, and consumption expenditures in the Republic of Korea. The authors find that the social distancing policy is an effective tool for reducing the spread of COVID-19, but a trade-off between infection control and economic activity rises over time. Vaccination is found to significantly reduce the critical rate while visitors and consumption expenditures increase as vaccination rates improve. The results also show that the effect of social distancing policies varies by the initial level and by age.

Deep learning (DL) has attracted the attention of computational toxicologists as it offers a potentially greater power for in silico predictive toxicology than existing shallow learning algorithms. However, contradicting reports have been documented. To further explore the advantages of DL over shallow learning, we conducted this case study using two cell-based androgen receptor (AR) activity datasets with 10K chemicals generated from the Tox21 program. A nested double-loop cross-validation approach was adopted along with a stratified sampling strategy for partitioning chemicals of multiple AR activity classes (i.e., agonist, antagonist, inactive, and inconclusive) at the same distribution rates amongst the training, validation and test subsets. Deep neural networks (DNN) and random forest (RF), representing deep and shallow learning algorithms, respectively, were chosen to carry out structure-activity relationship-based chemical toxicity prediction. Results suggest that DNN significantly outperformed RF (p < 0.001, ANOVA) by 22–27% for four metrics (precision, recall, F-measure, and AUPRC) and by 11% for another (AUROC). Further in-depth analyses of chemical scaffolding shed insights on structural alerts for AR agonists/antagonists and inactive/inconclusive compounds, which may aid in future drug discovery and improvement of toxicity prediction modeling.

After adopting an inflation targeting framework for monetary policy at the turn of the century, the Central Bank of Colombia started actively using the monetary policy interest rate as its key policy tool. In this regard, this paper examines the interest rate pass-through from the monetary policy rate to the retail rates in Colombia and explores asymmetries in the adjustment process within the framework of a non-linear version of the ARDL (NARDL) model developed by Shin et al. (2014). Our findings show that the policy rate plays a key role in determining deposit and lending retail rates but the nature of the pass-through varies across different types of lending products. In the case of lending rates, the pass-through is usually a full one, and takes around 12 months to be nearly complete. Our results capture an asymmetric positive pass-through in deposit rates and an upward rigidity in the lending rates of consumer and ordinary corporate loans, key segments of the credit market. These findings imply that most retail lending rates respond more to policy rate cuts than to hikes, indicating that financial intermediaries are more reluctant to raise interest rates than to decrease them following policy adjustments.

This study seeks to determine whether the Fruta del Norte project affected the main economic and social indicators of the Yantzaza canton, where the large-scale mining project is located. To do so, the analysis centers on key economic variables (such as business productivity and employment) and development variables (such as health and school enrollment). The specific methodology used is a synthetic control model, which enables the generation of a counterfactual for the treated canton. The findings suggest that Fruta del Norte had a positive impact on local economic activity in Yantzaza. The local economic dynamism spurred by Fruta del Norte had positive effects on local formal employment; however, increases in the rates of school dropout and adolescent pregnancy were observed.

The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) undertook marine fieldwork onboard the Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) Vector to locate and map potential geohazards and geological features in the Salish Sea in the interest of public safety from August 11-18, 2021. This work was conducted under the Natural Resources Canada Marine Geoscience for Marine Spatial Planning (MGMSP) and the Public Safety Geoscience Programs. The GSC had observed multiple potential faults in existing data near Central Haro Strait, Stuart Channel, South of Hornby Island and near Cape Lazo through existing CHIRP and multibeam bathymetry data but required further data to quantify their activity and potential seismic risk (Barrie et al, 2021). In addition to fault activity, the GSC had detected numerous large underwater landslide deposits in Howe Sound and Saanich Inlet. The GSC required further data to constrain volumes and timing of slide activity. In English Bay the origin and evolution of a field of pockmarks was poorly understood. In Burrard Inlet, the survey required a better understanding of frequency of landslides as well as depth of sediment in order to understand natural sediment depositional rates. The research expedition included deep-tow system (DTS) sub-bottom surveys and multibeam water column and bathymetric surveys in each of these areas to better understand these marine geohazards and processes. Hydrographic surveys were completed by the Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS) at night in Pylades Channel and near Point Grey to maximize use of ship time. Weather was good, seas were calm, and good quality data were collected. The data collected will be made publicly available and have the potential to contribute to building codes and to help communities in their decision-making and understanding of risks.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.