Academic literature on the topic 'Agricultural Business'

Basically, there are not many farmers who can sell their own products to the market, both domestic and foreign markets, because these markets are generally too far away for them. Individual farmers cannot contact buyers in these markets because they do not have adequate means of transportation and do not have the necessary knowledge or facilities for various purposes, such as packaging, storage, processing and nothing else related to the marketing. Therefore, a good and efficient trading system for agricultural products is needed in supporting the success / success of the market for agricultural products. So that agriculture is not only viewed in a narrow sense, where the agricultural sector is very large and wide, it is necessary to convey the history of agriculture and its development for the advancement of agriculture and the application of technology in agriculture. Farmers need knowledge in terms of crop management and good management in the context of the welfare of the farmers, where we know that many farmers feel disadvantaged in the sale or marketing of their agricultural products.

One of the measures of the Sectoral Operational Programme Agriculture and Rural Development is focused on the diversification of agricultural activities. The analysis of the measure showed the greatest interest in financial support among the subjects aimed at agritourism and rural tourism. The field of tourism dominates also among the number of the approved projects. The share of other diversification activities is very low. The analysis of other profitable activities in the Farm Structure Census and Farm Structure Survey by the type of activities shows that the total number of agricultural enterprises with other profitable activities decreased in 2005 compared to 2001 and 2003. The total amount of agricultural enterprises with other profitable activities in the Slovak Republic reached 3 219 in 2001, 4 465 in 2003, and 2 066 enterprises in 2005. In 2005, the number of the enterprises increased in the field of craft industry, wood processing, fishery, generating energy from renewable resources and contracted work.

The article clarifies the concept of “agricultural holding”, using an approach to assessing the size on the basis of the total revenue of all agricultural organizations within the agricultural holding. It has been revealed that only 100 of the total number of agricultural holdings that were identified can be attributed to large business entities. They comprise about 3% of agricultural organizations in the country, while their share in the proceeds is about 37%. A large share of agricultural holdings — large business subjects under the control of Russian entities operate in one, and under the control of foreign legal entities — in three or more regions of the Russian Federation. Vertical integration within the framework of large agricultural holdings with different schemes for including the stages of processing and sale of products produced in their agricultural organizations allows them to receive advantages. Strengthening the role of large business entities in agriculture puts on the agenda the issue of differentiating approaches to taxation and state support in agriculture, depending on the size of the companies’ agricultural businesses.

The identification of the improvement areas and utilization of information and communication technologies in agriculture, as the support of the agricultural development in line with the environmental sustainability criteria, have gained importance and priority in our knowledge driven society. Rules define constraints, conditions and policies of how the business processes are to be performed but they also affect the behavior of the resource and facilitate the strategic business goals achieving. They control the business and represent business knowledge. The article deals with business rules and rule technology and identifies the business and technical opportunities they afford company. It shows also how to specify and classify business rules from the business perspective and to establish an approach to managing them that will enable a faster change in business processes and other business concepts in particular business in agricultural area. This article could provide business analysts with an essential approach to understanding, redesigning and communicating what really happens in the business processes. 

This article presents information about the development and the structure of indices regarding natural and legal persons in the years 2000 and 2002. Finally, the development of indices is compared with the year 1990. The article characterizes the development of companies, which are farming land, like cooperatives, business companies, state owned companies and natural persons. It demonstrates the number and structure of companies in the branches of the agri-food sector divided into agriculture, agricultural services and food industry. Moreover, the article presents agricultural land area used by natural and legal persons. This contribution draws information from the results of the questionnaire, which was made by the regional offices of the Ministry of Agriculture. In conclusion, the article suggests the possible orientation of organizations in the short time period

Subject. Agricultural business cannot evolve successfully without innovation used in their operations. The low demand for marketing, corporate and environmental innovations stem from the underdevelopment of the innovative environment and infrastructure of regional agriculture, in particular. Objectives. We analyze the use of innovation in agriculture, evaluate the demand for various types of innovation among small agricultural businesses. Methods. The study relies upon such methods as monograph, abstraction logic analysis, analysis and synthesis, economic analysis, economic-statistical analysis. The statistical framework is based on official statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service. Results. The article points out the most promising types of marketing, organizational and administrative, environmental innovation. If they are capable of allowing for the implementation of organizational and administrative innovation, such entities are found to derive additional effects from new technology. It is hard for small and medium-sized agricultural businesses to implement innovation on their own. Thus, they can raise their performance by cooperating with large businesses. The article shows how small and large businesses may cooperate to master innovation. Conclusions and Relevance. Igniting the innovative activity of small agricultural businesses becomes a key to the food independence and security of the country. Innovation can be used more broadly if there is an appropriate innovative environment, which requires to improve the regulatory framework and refine the innovation encouragement mechanisms, incentives, stronger and deeper integration of agricultural science and production. There should be provisions of the agricultural policy, which would help various innovations permeate production processes of small agricultural businesses.

Even ten years after the revolution in 1989, Slovak agriculture is characterized by the predominant position of cooperatives. There were shifts towards other types of agricultural entrepreneurship, and some of these trends we documented in our article, based on the data gained by surveying agricultural enterprises. We drew a conclusion that cooperatives are more labor demanding. This also means that they still preserve a social role as a main employer in rural areas. Our paper also differentiates between Southern and Northern (less favorable for agriculture) regions, represented by the Nitra and Žilina region, respectively. We examined soil quality, labor intensity, wages, and finally main crops yields in these two regions.

The key element of the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy is sustainable agriculture where the social, economic, and environmental objectives should be fulfilled. This role can fulfill only those agricultural holdings that are effective in the transformation of inputs to outputs, and which do not waste the inputs. Therefore, we analyze the technical efficiency of the agricultural holdings in the Slovak regions, and try to identify the factors that are able to influence the efficiency of agricultural holdings. We can conclude that there are regional disparities in technical efficiency in Slovakia; however, the problem of inefficiency is not typical only for the agricultural holdings in the areas with natural constraints. These regional disparities should be considered when adopting a new political measure to support sustainable agriculture. By the results of econometric models, we find that the agricultural production diversity, the policy of the labor market, and tax policy are the important factors influencing the technical efficiency of the agricultural holdings in Slovakia.

<p><em>This study aims to map the potential of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) and describe the success of businesses in the area of assistance of the GNI Foundation in the villages of Nanggerang and Pasawahan Village, Sukabumi. This research is a quantitative descriptive study supported by qualitative data using mixed methods research. The research was carried out in two villages that were deliberately selected and became the area of assistance for the Indonesian Gugah Nurani Foundation (GNI), namely Nanggerang Village (Cibilik, Gintung, Nanggerang1, Nanggerang2) and Pasawahan Village (Pasawahan, Cibuntu, Selaawi, Sindang Palay) Cicurug District, Sukabumi Regency. Based on the survey results, the number of MSEs in the 2 (two) villages 171 businesses with potential in agriculture for Nanggerang village and food processing fields in Pesawahan village. Potential business opportunities in the villages of Nanggerang and Pasawahan villages at this time are the business of agricultural cultivation and food processing. This agricultural cultivation means businesses related to agricultural production such as organic vegetables or healthy vegetables, cultivation of healthy catfish (biofloc technology), healthy chicken cultivation, cultivation of sheep, goats and cows. Market-based agricultural business or market needs. The types of businesses mentioned above have broad market potential with clear target targets. The processed food business in question is a business managed by groups or individuals with local raw materials such as cassava and its derivatives, coconuts and derivatives, and processed fish products. The business success of MSEs in Nanggerang and Pasawahan villages is indicated by the business being run by its own business (86%), business duration of more than 10 years (33%) with a turnover of 1-10 million per month (47%) and contribution to income family more than 75% (37%).</em></p>

Master of Agribusiness
Department of Agricultural Economics
Allen M. Featherstone
The world is an ever-changing place with many demands on both companies and their employees. Finance individuals in a large multi-national company also have many demands placed on them as they grow and develop with the companies in which they work. A detailed analysis was performed on one large multi-national company in the agriculture sector to determine: 1. a framework to assess the skills that finance individuals need, 2. the desired skills and needs of the finance organization, 3. a current assessment of finance experiences and skills, and 4. the gaps between the current state and the desired skill level state. Although there are a number of criteria and competencies that can be used for assessment, this thesis focused on the critical skills and experiences for two key areas: 1. accounting and technical skills, and 2. analytical and business acumen skills. Skill set levels were measured at three criteria levels: Basic, Intermediate and Advanced. The desired state of the organization and the current state of the organization was defined and mapped on a Skill Set Grid and gaps were identified. When looking at the results, the data indicate that Company XYZ has several areas to explore further and refine. There were many gaps in the current state of the skill sets versus the desired state of the skill sets in both the areas of accounting and technical skills and analytical and business acumen skills. Further, the analytical and business acumen skills were significantly in need of further improvement. In addition, several areas of further refinement could occur that would further enhance the use of this skill assessment methodology. However, both the company and the employees who received feedback valued the information developed in this process.

This thesis is a comparative study of optimal design-based univariate stratification as applied to highly skewed populations such as those observed in business and agricultural surveys. Optimal stratification is a widely used method for reducing the variance or cost of estimates, and this work considers various optimal stratification algorithms, and in particular optimal boundary algorithms, to support this objective. We first provide a background to the theory of stratification and stratified random sampling, and extend this through the derivation of optimal allocation strategies. We then examine the effect of allocation strategies on the variance and design effect of estimators, and in particular find several issues in applying optimal or Neyman allocation when there is little correlation between the survey population and auxiliary information. We present a derivation of the intractable equations for the construction of optimal stratum boundaries, based on the work of Dalenius (1950), and derive the cumulative square root of frequency approximation of Dalenius & Hodges (1957). We then note a number of issues within the implementation of the cumulative square root of frequency rule surrounding the construction of initial intervals, and find that the placement of boundaries and the variance of estimates can be affected by the number of initial intervals. This then leads us to propose two new extensions to the cumulative square root of frequency algorithm, using linear and spline interpolation, and we find that these result in some improvements in the results for this algorithm. We also present a complete derivation of the Ekman algorithm, and consider the extended approach of Hedlin (2000). We derive several new results relating to the Ekman algorithm, and propose a new kernel density based algorithm. We find all three Ekman based algorithms produce similar results for larger populations, and provide some recommendations on the use of these algorithms depending on the size of the population. We look at the derivation and implementation of the Lavallee-Hidiroglou algorithm, and find that it is often slow to converge or does not converge for Neyman allocation. We therefore adopt a random search model of Kozak (2004), and note that the Lavallee-Hidiroglou algorithm generally produces superior results across all populations used in this thesis. We briefly investigate the optimal number of strata by examining the work of Cochran (1977) and Kozak (2006), and find that there is a diminishing marginal effect from increasing the number of strata and possibly some benefit from constructing more than six strata. However we also acknowledge that the cost of constructing such strata may offset any potential gain in precision from constructing more than five or six strata. Finally we consider the how many of these problems can be developed further, and ultimately find that such problems for deciding the number of strata, construction of stratum boundaries, and the allocation of sample units among the strata may require an approach that takes account of the relationship between the auxiliary variable and the survey information. We therefore suggest investigating these algorithms further within the context of a model-assisted environment in order to help account for the relationship between the auxiliary information and survey population.

The purpose of the study was to compare the perceptions of subordinates with top managements? own perceptions regarding top management leadership and innovative ability and to determine whether differences and/or similarities exist. The Multi Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ form 5X) from Avolio & Bass (2004) was used to measure self– and subordinates? perceptions of leadership styles. The Situation Outlook Questionnaire (SOQ) was used to measure leaders? self– and subordinates? perception on the ability to be innovative. The questionnaires were completed by 6 executive committee members (top management) and 94 subordinates that have a direct relationship with the executive committee members in an agricultural business. The research findings revealed that there is a significant difference between leaders? (executive committee members) self–perceptions on their own leadership and ability to be innovative, versus the perceptions of their subordinates on their leadership and ability to be innovative. The research showed that leaders tend to assess themselves higher than their subordinates do. Both leaders and subordinates indicated that the leaders have a transformational leadership style. The results also showed that there is a weak to moderate, positively significant correlation between innovation and transformational leadership styles.
Thesis (M.B.A.)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Agricultural financing has a wide and deep history in Nigeria, owing to the fact that the Nigerian economy has huge potentials for growth especially from its agriculture sector which is the second largest contributor to GDP. Since the establishment of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme over 30 years ago, the total sum of 647,351 loans amounting to over N34 billion have been disbursed to farmers as at 2009. The result from this study shows that the guarantee scheme has been effective in providing agricultural financing as well as stimulating agricultural production in Nigeria. More specifically, the study found that, out of the five variables used in the models to determine agricultural performance, the credit finance provided under the ACGS and foreign exchange rates was found to be statistically significant to agricultural output. The credit provided under the ACGS has a significant effect on aggregate output; it was also found that the crop and the fishery subsectors are significantly affected by the credit finance provided under the ACGS, due to their short gestation period. However, the livestock and forestry subsectors do not have an immediate significant relationship with the credit finance due to their long gestation period; rather, they have a significant relationship with the depreciation of foreign exchange rates. A major policy implication from the study is that the government should continue to promote and support the operations of the ACGS to encourage farmers to invest their best efforts in agricultural production in Nigeria for food production and for enhanced agricultural export.

The analysed research problem answer the question of how the changing trade conditions affect Lithuanian agricultural and food exports. The paper aims to assess the level of specialization in the agricultural and food sector exports of Lithuania. Assessment of the level of specialization was based on calculation of the trade coverage, revealed comparative advantage and intra-industry trade indi-ces and their aggregation. Empirical research covers the period of 1999–2014. The export of agricul-tural and food products of Lithuania has been positively affected by trade liberalisation and achieved the effect of synergy due to regional integration processes (membership in the EU). It is characterised by high level of specialisation; nevertheless, this does not contribute to increasing of added value in agriculture.

In a dynamic market environment, the agrarian business follows trends for innovation, smart solutions, digital systems for precision agriculture, technology for saving resources and higher economic efficiency. The economy, of which the agricultural sector is part, is becoming a digital one. The main research objective of this development is to consider and interpret more significant aspects of the digital transformation of the economy, of which the agricultural business is a part, and to use this database to outline solutions as a factor for efficiency and development.

This article touches upon digital transformation in agriculture. Firstly, classification of core business processes of agriculture is presented with examples of primary and support business processes at animal breeding farms. Later the article gives an overview of innovative information technologies used nowadays in agriculture worldwide. Finally, it is justified that for the successful digital transformation it is vital to evaluate current IT-maturity level of business processes in order to fix their “bottlenecks” before the implementation of innovative information technologies. While common models of IT-maturity, level does not take into account features of specific industries, it is necessary to develop a stand-alone model for agricultural companies.

The extremely fast pace with which digital technologies are developing and their entry into the agricultural sector is changing the business environment, working conditions and the composition of the workforce. This in turn creates an opportunity to increase the efficiency of farms, while improving the economic and environmental sustainability of the sector and rural areas. The aim of this report is to examine the impact that the application of digital technologies in agribusiness has on employment in the sector, the emergence of new occupations and changes in working conditions, as well as to identify the challenges to human resource management in the digital environment. agriculture.

This study employs data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to evaluate the performance of agricultural aircraft routes. In the context of agricultural aircraft usage, not enough attention has been paid to the efficiency study of the routes in agricultural operations. Aircraft are used in agriculture to perform various treatments on agricultural land. Presumptions in this study are that a land is divided into parcels and one type of treatment must be performed on these parcels. Also, the considered operation is performed by the agricultural aircraft and the size of the analyzed land implies that all parcels cannot be treated in one route, so there are multiple routes which have to be completed. Here, we propose application of output oriented CCR DEA model on one set of routes in order to determine relatively efficient routes. Proposed inputs for the application of the DEA method are: tank capacity of an aircraft and total cost of parcel treatment in one route. Proposed outputs are: total treated land area (total area of all parcels in route) in one route and percentage share of effective flight in the total distance traveled in one route. In this way relatively efficient routes can be selected, and some further analysis of relatively inefficient routes can be made in order to see what changes can be done in inputs and / or outputs of these inefficient routes to improve their performance.

The paper explores the diversification of agricultural enterprises, which seeks to extend basic farming activities to products of a higher degree of sophistication, such as the provision of catering and tourism services and the provision of entertainment, sports, educational and other facilities. The fundamental purpose of diversification is to ensure the growth and stability of farmers' businesses and to contribute to the rural development. The main objective of the paper is to identify factors of diversification and their correlation with socio-economic indicators. In addition to determining the extent to which they are present in improving the performance of agricultural enterprises and affect rural development. The results of the research will confirm the assumption that the inclusion of diversification in business practices of agricultural enterprises is a means of strengthening their performance while encouraging rural develompent.

The article deals with current problems of legal regulation of investment relations in the agricultural sector of the national economy, including leasing of agricultural machinery, agricultural territories with a special regime of business activity, as well as issues of regulation of digitalization of the agroindustrial complex.

Conflicts between humans and birds likely have existed since agricultural practices began. Paintings from ancient Greek, Egyptian, and Roman civilizations depict birds attacking crops. In Great Britain, recording of efforts at reducing bird damage began in the 1400s, with books on bird control written in the 1600s. Even so, the problem persists. Avian damage to crops remains an issue today, but we also are concerned with damage to homes, businesses, and aircraft, and the possibility of disease transmission from birds to humans or livestock. Bird dispersal techniques are a vital part of safely and efficiently reducing bird conflicts with humans. The bird must perceive a technique as a threat if it is to be effective. No single technique can solve all bird conflicts, but an integrated use of multiple techniques, each enhancing the other, generally provides relief.

This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic, policy, and knowledge institution sources on how demography affects labour markets (e.g. entrants, including youth and women) and labour market outcomes (e.g. capital-per-worker, life-cycle labour supply, human capital investments) in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the key findings is that the fast-growing population in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to affect the ability to get productive jobs and in turn economic growth. This normally happens when workers move from traditional (low productivity agriculture and household businesses) sectors into higher productivity sectors in manufacturing and services. In theory the literature shows that lower dependency ratios (share of the non-working age population) should increase output per capita if labour force participation rates among the working age population remain unchanged. If output per worker stays constant, then a decline in dependency ratio would lead to a rise in income per capita. Macro simulation models for sub-Saharan Africa estimate that capital per worker will remain low due to consistently low savings for at least the next decades, even in the low fertility scenario. Sub-Saharan African countries seem too poor for a quick rise in savings. As such, it is unlikely that a lower dependency ratio will initiate a dramatic increase in labour productivity. The literature notes the gender implications on labour markets. Most women combine unpaid care for children with informal and low productive work in agriculture or family enterprises. Large family sizes reduce their productive labour years significantly, estimated at a reduction of 1.9 years of productive participation per woman for each child, that complicates their move into more productive work (if available). If the transition from high fertility to low fertility is permanent and can be established in a relatively short-term period, there are long-run effects on female labour participation, and the gains in income per capita will be permanent. As such from the literature it is clear that the effect of higher female wages on female labour participation works to a large extent through reductions in fertility.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.