Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Agricultural trade'

A number of attempts have been made to facilitate agricultural trade liberalisation over the last decades. In spite of these efforts, trade liberalisation of agricultural and food processed goods has been modest. It is argued that this lack of trade liberalisation is explained by the existence of governments that are politically biased in the sense that they place anti-trade policies in order to favour powerful sectors in the economy. While there exists some evidence supporting this argument, it is difficult to assess how these biases influence agricultural trade patterns because existing quantitative modelling approaches do not normally consider simultaneously key aspects that characterise the food industry such as intra-industry trade and the existence of intermediaries in the supply chain with significant market power, among others. The objective of this thesis is to offer an alternative theoretical model that has the potential to accommodate these key aspects and corresponds to an international trade network model that extends the framework developed by Goyal and Joshi (2006). The model was solved by means of simulations and the results revealed that policy biased indeed can prevent trade liberalisation of agricultural and food processed goods. However, other factors that apparently have not been reported so far and that are related to the market power exercised by intermediaries were identified. They correspond to the position of a country in the trade network (i.e. a country occupying a central position in the network is less likely to support trade liberalisation independently of any policy bias), the possibility that global free trade is an unlikely outcome, and the possibility that the world is trapped in an inefficient international trade network. The results also revealed that the adoption of compensatory lump sum payments across countries (i.e. inter-node transfers) or across sectors within a country (i.e. intra-node transfers) could be used a potential tools to achieve global free trade in agriculture as they can compensate losers from trade by gainers achieving, as a consequence, Pareto improving outcomes.

Agriculture has continued to provide a source of income for the majority of India's population, either directly or indirectly. Over time, the structure of Indian agriculture trade has changed significantly but still the methods are very traditional and no advance technologies like Geospatial Data Science or Artificial Intelligence are used for its betterment. India, which is primarily an agricultural economy, is showing signs of progress in agriculture and related businesses. Agriculture has always been regarded as a valuable tool for economic development in India, as many other major sectors of production depend on it. Despite the government's efforts to double the income of the farmers, there is still a difference between a farmer's investment and the return on that investment. The laws governing agriculture markets in India have been archaic for a long time. The government has found reasons to over-regulate the agriculture industry, such as price controls, export bans, and restrictions on private trade. Agriculture's growth has been hindered by excessive regulation and a lack of freedom, making it one of the most uncompetitive sector. The government announced a complete reform of the country's farm markets after recognizing the underlying flaws with their functioning. The government then passed the three Farm Bills on September 20, amidst great controversy in Parliament. This study incorporated the new farms laws passed by the Government of India in September 2020 and developed a traditional mandi type model on an online platform with additional geospatial analysis component to remove the existing constraints in the existing flawed agriculture market which is currently regulated by the states under the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC). This study will outline how the usage of geospatial data and location intelligence would prove to be a game changer in the Indian agriculture sector. This study develops a WebGIS application where farmers and buyers will come to execute agricultural trade form any location in the country through an online platform with the help of v geospatial analysis-based information provided to them which they were previously unable to conduct due to the restrictions imposed by APMC regulations and lack of any geospatial analysis-based infrastructure for agricultural trade. In this WebGIS application, the farmers and buyers will be provided with principal geospatial analysis based information like shortest distance between their geolocations, location referenced dynamic map pointing the location of each farmer and buyer, and network analysis based optimal route information via interactive maps along with other necessary features of listing and buying options to let the buyers make a calculated decision while buying the agricultural produce from any part of the country which will in turn enable the farmers to sell their agricultural produce to any part of the country hence, empowering them and subsequently increasing their revenue. Furthermore, the provision for the third-party logistics is also provided where they can register themselves and the users can choose the most suitable third-party logistics agency to handle the agricultural trade's transportation.

Agricultural support levels are at a crossroad with reduced distortions in OECD countries and increasing support for agricultural producers in emerging economies over the last decades. This paper studies the determinants of distortions in the agricultural markets by putting a specific focus on the role of trade policy. Applying various different dynamic panel data estimators and explicitly accounting for potential endogeneity of trade policy agreements, we find that an increase in the number of bilateral free trade agreements exhibits significant short- and long-run distortion reducing effects. By contrast, WTO's Uruguay Agreement on Agriculture has not been able to systematically contribute to a reduction in agriculture trade distortions. From a policy point of view our findings thus point to a lack of effectiveness of multilateral trade negotiations.
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This dissertation consists of three essays examining the impacts of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures on agricultural trade. The first essay estimates the impact of the 2003 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in the US on Japanese beef imports. I develop a source-differentiated demand system of fresh/chilled and frozen beef imports augmented with endogenous smooth transition functions. Results suggest that over one-half of the estimated income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities reached a new regime in the post-BSE period of Japanese beef imports where the competitive relationship and substitutability between US and Australian beef exports changed significantly. The second essay develops a product-line structural gravity model to estimate the trade flow effects of SPS measures that have been flagged as specific trade concerns in the World Trade Organization's (WTO's) SPS Committee meetings for the top 30 agricultural trading countries covering four major product sectors. Our findings are striking and call attention to the need for a deeper understanding of the impacts of SPS measures on WTO members' agricultural trade. Results show that the trade effects of SPS trade concern measures reduce exporters' agricultural trade by 67%, on average, during periods in which concerns were active. Significant heterogeneity in the trade effect of SPS measures exists with average estimated ad valorem equivalent tariffs ranging from 33% to 106%. The AVE effect of SPS concern measures maintained by the US is estimated at 42%, less than a half (a third) of the AVE effects of SPS concern measures imposed by the European Union (China). China's restrictions on Avian Influenza and ractopamine restrictions in pork exports are estimated to be the most prohibitive, causing an AVE effect of 120.3% and 88.9%, respectively. The third essay develops a discrete-time duration model to examine the extent to which these SPS concern measures affect the hazard rate of US agri-food exports during the 1995-2016 period. Results show that SPS concern measures raise the hazard rate of US agri-food exports by a range of 2.1%~15.3%, causing the predicted hazard rate to increase from 21.8% to a range of 23.6%~27.9%. This effect is heterogeneous across different agricultural sectors, with the most substantial effects occurring in US exports of meat, fruits, and vegetables.
Doctor of Philosophy
This dissertation consists of three essays on the examination of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures and their impacts on agricultural trade. The first essay estimates the impact of the US 2003 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks on Japanese beef imports. Using a source-differentiated demand system of fresh/chilled and frozen beef imports embedded with endogenous smooth transition functions, we find that over one-half of the estimated income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities have changed remarkably, causing the Japanese beef import market to reach a new regime in the post-BSE period where the substitution and/or competition relationships between the US and Australia have changed. The second essay develops a product-line structural gravity model to estimate the trade effects of SPS measures flagged as concerns in the WTO's SPS Committee meetings for the top 30 agricultural trading countries covering four major product sectors. Results show that the trade effects of SPS concern measures are negative and significant, with the average estimated AVE tariffs ranging 33%~106%. The AVE effect of SPS concern measures maintained by the US is estimated to be 42%, less than a half (a third) of the AVE effects of SPS concern measures imposed by the European Union (China). China's restrictions on Avian Influenza and various ractopamine restrictions in the production and export of pork products are estimated to be the most prohibitive, causing an AVE effect of 120.3% and 88.9%, respectively. The third essay applies a discrete-time duration model to examine the extent to which SPS concern measures affect the hazard rate of US agri-food exports in 1995-2016. Results show that SPS concern measures raise the hazard rate of US agri-food exports by a range of 2.1%~15.3%, causing the predicted hazard rate to increase from 21.8% to a range of 23.6%~27.9%. This effect is heterogeneous across different agricultural sectors, with the most substantial effects occurring in US exports of meat, fruits, and vegetables.

Technical regulations are a form of non-tariff barrier that is becoming increasingly visible in agricultural trade disputes. A distinguishing feature of technical barriers is their legitimate use by governments to protect consumers' health, recognize citizen preferences in packaging and labeling, and protect the environment from the establishment of non-indigenous pests and diseases. When legitimate externalities or other market failures are addressed technical barriers have the potential to increase national welfare, even without consideration of terms-of-trade effects. Governments may also impose technical barriers to isolate domestic producers from international competition. In these cases under the small-country assumptions, technical barriers are welfare decreasing policies. Despite GATT rules designed to limit the misuse of technical barriers, continued disputes indicate that this type of regulatory measure can not always be justified on the basis of unambiguous scientific evidence and suggests that governments may still widely apply technical barriers of questionable merit. Political economy is one paradigm that explains government intervention in markets, even when the result is a loss in net welfare. The 1996 USDA Survey of Technical Barriers to U.S. Agricultural Exports provides a systematic source of primary data on technical measures which caused actual or projected export revenue losses to U.S. firms in 1996 and which might be subject to challenge under the Uruguay Round Agreements. Although no questionable technical barriers to 1996 U.S. agricultural exports were reported for 71 countries included in the Survey, there were a total of 302 barriers identified among 63 countries. The estimated trade impact of the barriers reported was $4.9 billion, or approximately seven percent of the total value of 1996 U.S. agricultural exports. Two sets of empirical models are estimated to identify the political economy determinants of questionable technical barriers as they are applied to U.S. agricultural exports. The incidence of questionable technical barriers is measured by the presence or absence of such barriers by country. The impact of questionable technical barriers is measured by the reported estimated trade impact as a percentage of 1996 U.S. agricultural exports to that country. Results indicate that, despite strengthened GATT disciplines, political economy considerations continue to influence the incidence and impact of technical barriers in international agricultural markets.
Ph. D.

Liberalization has been, for the past three decades, one of the most prominent strategies used in the developing world to promote growth and foster development. Haiti, as many other least developed countries, has implemented the liberalization policies over the past two decades. The poor socioeconomic conditions of the Haitians, today, have pushed to question the effectiveness of the neoliberal plan. Agriculture being a pivotal sector of the Haitian economy, the study goal is the evaluation of liberalization on the agricultural production. The findings are that trade liberalization is detrimental to agriculture in Haiti. The food crops production, a major component of the agricultural production, in terms of providing income to the rural poor and ensuring food security, suffered the most from trade liberalization. Also, cash crops production has not increased with liberalization.

This study uses linear programming and econometric tools to determine the impact of agricultural productivity (technology) on agricultural exports. The study determines total factor productivity (TFP) using the Malmquist index method for a panel of 64 countries. Productivity impact on exports is determined by a two-stage estimation procedure. The results show agricultural productivity affects agricultural exports. This has important implications for developing countries. A 1 unit change in cumulative TFP increases agricultural output by .79% and a 1% increase in estimated agricultural output increases exports by .37%. Therefore, the total effect of technology on exports of primary and processed commodities is .29%. Developed countries generally have higher TFP rates, leading to higher export earnings; meanwhile, developing countries are not getting the benefits from agricultural exports because they have a relatively lower level of agricultural productivity. Investing in research and development for agriculture can improve technology, which, in turn, can Increase agricultural exports.

The agricultural sector in Zambia is supported through the government use of public expenditure programs to spur the production and subsidize the consumption of key grains to stabilize prices. Previous research has documented the effects of public spending on agriculture in terms of food prices and food security. The effects of government spending on the trade of key grains, however, is not well understood. As such, there is a gap in knowledge regarding the impact of agricultural policy on the agricultural trade. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of Zambian agricultural policy on grain trade. A combination of 2 trust-based theories formed the theoretical foundation of this study. These theories included ecology of games theory and Kingdon's garbage-can model. Secondary data were acquired from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database and Michigan State University. A vector autoregression analysis of time-series data covering a 10-year period from 2003 to 2012 showed that grain quantities purchased by the Food Reserve Agency significantly impacted grain trade (p = 0.000), whereas the Farmer Input Subsidy Program did not significantly impact grain trade (p = 0.843). However, the combined effect of these 2 policy instruments was found to be statistically significant (p = 0.000). The key finding of this study is that for every 1 metric ton purchased by the Food Reserve Agency, grain trade increases by 0.342 metric tons; whereas for every 1 Kwacha spent on Farmer Input Subsidy Program, grain trade decreases by 0.187 metric tons. Positive social change may be achieved through recommendations to policy makers to increase appropriations to postharvest management and extension to increase tradable volumes and farmers' income.

This thesis models trade flows between countries as a function of several variables, including those representing membership in multilateral trade agreements (MTAs). The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of trade policies, trading costs, trade agreements and other demographic characteristics on exports of food and agriculture products. More specifically, the paper uses a gravity model augmented with three sets of dummy variables to estimate the impact of 13 trade arrangements on intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade. Results indicate that several MTAs enhance intra-bloc trading at the expense of non-members while others have been successful at increasing both intra-bloc trade and trade with the rest of the world. Findings further suggest that several arrangements had no significant effect on member trading and that a few have effectively reduced trade for members.

This dissertation describes two essays in empirical international trade, focusing on trade costs and the pattern of trade along the intensive and extensive margins. In the first essay, I study the barriers that impede international trade. In the second paper, I examine the growth of U.S. agricultural trade in detail describing how U.S. agriculture and food trade has expanded along the margins. The first chapter introduces a relatively straightforward, yet empirically powerful, manipulation of the gravity equation. The gravity model has been dubbed the work horse model of empirical trade, and thus is a suitable foundation from which to derive an indirect measure of largely unobservable 'iceberg' trade costs. In this paper, I solve a sector level version of the gravity equation and study the pattern of agricultural trade costs and factors that impede world agricultural trade growth over a long time series, 1986-2011. In addition, I estimate sector-specific elasticity of substitution which is a key parameter in the computation of trade cost. In the second essay, I examine the growth of world and U.S. agricultural exports along the intensive and extensive margins of international trade over the period 1986 to 2010. The purpose of this essay is to decompose the growth of world and U.S. agricultural trade using qualitative methods from the marketing literature (i.e., market expansion grids) but modified to fit bilateral trade relationships and a theoretical index to measure the margins of trade at a single point in time. In addition, we examine often overlooked channels by which U.S. agricultural exports have expanded using very detailed agricultural product lines. Using information related to the pattern of a trade rather than trade volume itself, I estimate how much starting a trade relationship with a new partner or in a new product variety matters to agricultural trade growth and then conclude with a set of stylized facts to inform current theory.
Ph. D.

The objective of this thesis is to demonstrate, through legal and regulatory analysis, how three non-trade issues - SPS measures, trade in GMOs and food security concerns - might result in new modem barriers to trade that might diminish the gains of freer markets. If developed countries use non-trade concerns to justify more generous domestic support in a non-decoupled way, may do as much harm to international trade as the traditional trade policies instruments did in the past. Such undesired behavior from the developed world is possible due to the inability of current WTO norms to control these new problems. These three special issues must be addressed in future negotiations in order to modify developing countries' perception that the payoffs of trade liberalization are not advantageous for them. The continuance of this perception during current negotiations might lead to the collapse of the current trading system.

International trade has brought tremendous choice to consumers and expanded markets for producers. Cross-border exchange also brings import risks such as food contaminants and invasive species. Balancing legitimate concerns to protect health and the environment with avoiding protectionist use of risk-based measures is highly important to the integrity of the multilateral trading system. This research studies three aspects of the relation between domestic regulations and international trade. Firstly, this thesis provides evidence addressing an ongoing international policy debate. This thesis is the first to show that the 8,487 new risk-based regulations under the Sanitary Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement and 4,745 regulations under Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Agreement notified from 1996-2010 are driven in part by loss of tariff protection and country-level environmental governance factors. Declining tariffs, however, do not make the implementation of 'suspect' SPS (i.e. measures later subject to a trade concern) more likely. This suggests policymakers may be systematically choosing to work on products that have lost tariff protection, but not systemically putting in illegitimate, non-tariff barriers to compensate. Secondly, this thesis investigates the patterns of Specific Trade Concerns (STCs) raised against 292 suspect SPS policies and 282 suspect TBT policies by members of the WTO from 1996-2010. It was found that developing countries struggle to resolve concerns they raise against developed economies. From work on 79 plant health concerns, it was clear that countries raise STCs using science-based and economics-based arguments of illegitimacy. Lastly, SPS measures are implemented to reduce risks transmitted via trade, but the effectiveness of risk reduction depends as well on actions of supply chain actors before export. A case study on coffee pests and diseases from a survey of 119 growers and 89 traders in Uganda is presented to scrutinize the decision-making process of growers in a high pest/disease prevalence environment.

The Republic of Turkey has seen a rise in its gross domestic products (GDP), a fall in the share of agriculture percentage of GDP and a contributive role of politically connected development plans that introduce agricultural policies and trade as regional trade agreements (RTAs). It is necessary to gauge the contribution of policy and trade changes to the performance of the Turkish agriculture sector. The primary objective of this thesis is to estimate the performance of the Turkish agriculture sector between 1961 and 2016 using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The secondary objective is to evaluate the impact of politically connected development plans that introduce agricultural policies and trade as regional trade agreements (RTAs) on the performance of Turkish agriculture production. As one of the results, the performance of Turkish agriculture production shows decreases in the following a rise in the number of the regional trade agreements.

This thesis estimates the impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs) notified by the importing countries on agricultural trade. The non-tariff measures constitute the technical measures notified under the SPS and TBT agreements and the non-technical measures to trade. Two approaches are used; the inventory approach and the econometric approach which makes use of the gravity model. The inventory results suggest that African countries face more restrictions on their exports than what they impose on their imports. Also, Uganda, Senegal and Mali are among the top twenty most affected importers. The empirical results suggest that the impact of the overall group on non-tariff measures is ambiguous but when measures are disaggregated into technical and non-technical measures, the results show that the technical measures promote agricultural trade and that the non-technical measures restrict trade. Also, imports of industrialized nations from fellow industrialized nations are promoted by the technical measures but are restricted by non-technical measures, while those from non-industrialized countries are affected negatively by both technical and non-technical measures. Out of the five regions considered, Africa faces the largest negative impact by both technical and non-technical measures.
Master of Science

The sharp decline of tariff trade barriers has been one of the achievements of the world trading system. However, the reduction in tariffs has exposed the many non-tariff barriers that remain. As tariffs continue to fall, there seems to be a corresponding reliance on SPS measures as a source of protection for domestic producers. This underscores the need for a legal framework that can address the fundamental issue of whether a measure validly exists to protect consumers or is merely a 'sham' to protect domestic producers. This thesis argues that the protectionist use of SPS measures undermines the promised benefits of agricultural trade liberalization. Developing countries face numerous problems with regard to SPS measures. This thesis examines these problems and argues that there is a need to strengthen the capacity of developing countries to establish and implement SPS measures; meet the SPS requirements of trade partners; and participate fully in the work of standard setting organizations in the establishment of international standards, guidelines and recommendations. In addition, despite the proposed reductions in tariff barriers stipulated in the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, a lot remains to be done to fully liberalize trade in agriculture. Several issues still need to be addressed in order to enable developing countries to reap the benefits of trade liberalization in agriculture. These issues include market access, domestic and export support, food security and special and differential treatment.

The 7 year long GATT Uruguay Round (UR) of trade negotiations saw the first concerted attempt to reform world trade in agricultural products which was badly distorted by government policies to support domestic fanners. From the outset agriculture was the single most divisive issue on the 15 point agenda, with conflicts between the USA and the EC severely hampering the reform process. This study provides a review, and analysis, of the alternative strategies proposed by the main participants in the UR, and the final UR settlement, agreed in December 1993; it also provides an examination of the policy options open to governments wishing to support farm incomes with minimal distortions to world markets. The main participants accepted relatively early in the Round that an Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) would be needed to quantify the existing level of internal support and then monitor reductions in it. Differences of opinion as to the calculation of such an AMS existed until 1990 when the main participants proposed that the AMS be based on the DECO Producer Subsidy Equivalent (PSE), but adjusted for differing policy coverage and the method of measuring market price support. Therefore, the PSE and the changes to the PSE suggested by the major participants in the UR are examined, giving the un surprising conclusion that by 1990 the USA and Cairns Group (CG) of exporting countries were calling for a far greater reduction in agricultural support than the EC. In addition, the USA and CG required that there be separate reductions in border protection and export subsidisation while the Ee contended that an AMS should capture all agricultural policies so that separate commitments would not be required. A partial equilibrium, dynamic, stochastic simulation model, covering 7 main trading areas, for wheat is developed to examine this contention; using the EC's 1990 proposals for reform, it is found that a reduction in the AMS does lead to a commensurate fall in import tariffs, but not in export subsidisation. The final UR agreement is analysed, using the model developed previously to determine whether the commitments in each of the 3 areas (internal support, border protection and export subsidisation) are compatible, in the sense that the different targets can be met simultaneously. The conclusions of this analysis are that the EC and USA are likely to have considerable difficulty in meeting the commitment to reduce the quantity of subsidised exports if the current agricultural policies are continued. Finally, it is acknowledged that although a significant aim of the agreed UR programme is raising world prices above what they would otherwise have been, it also has the effect of limiting the policy options of governments wishing to provide income support to fanners. The analysis suggests that the need to meet the UR commitment on export subsidisation will force the USA to cut expenditure on the Export Enhancement Program, and the EC to reduce intervention prices further and increase the amount of effective set aside. In addition, the cost of the compensatory payments policy is likely to result in continued budgetary crises after 1996.

Commodity markets display substantial volatility both in prices and in the quantities traded. This has led to the development of different instruments designed to address this volatility. Processors and traders, who are actively involved in the international market, participate in these commodity markets using cross-hedging strategies by their export and domestic supply decisions. Spot and future prices, as well as the cross-hedging strategies, affect export and the domestic supply decisions. Understanding this complex interaction calls for further and newer insights and this research contributes to this. The primary objective of Chapter 1 of this thesis is to develop a model which explains the export and domestic supply decisions when traders, producers and speculators participate in a futures market for a primary commodity, which can be stored and for which future markets operate. As a result, exports and domestic supply are affected by the prices of the primary product, and jointly by the prices in the external and domestic market. Chapter 2 provides the historical, political and economic context of the Argentine economy and the agricultural sector, specifically on the three agricultural commodities used in the empirical part of this research. In Chapter 3, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal unit roots of monthly series of exports and domestic supply, using time series that include zero values. In the past, this technique has mostly been applied to quarterly data but never to monthly series that display periods of inactivity. The results indicate that, in general, the seasonality observed in the series analysed can be sufficiently explained by a deterministic approach. The estimation and further analysis of the supply equations derived in Chapter 1 are undertaken in Chapter 4. A comprehensive analysis of seasonal cointegration using monthly data was conducted but, in light of the results obtained in Chapter 3, only the Engle-Granger cointegration is applied. The results indicate weak cointegration relationships. This may indicate the need for improved data and/or alternative econometric techniques.

Dans cette thèse nous avons exploré trois questions de recherche sur le commerce international dans le sector agricole. Dans le premier chapitre, nous avons regardé l’implication des coûts marginaux croissants sur la durée des flux d’exportation. Les récentes études empiriques suggèrent que les firmes ont des coûts marginaux croissants. Par conséquent, les ventes d’une firme sur un marché influent sur ses coûts et sa compétitivité sur tous les marchés, et donc sur sa survie sur divers marchés d’exportation. L’objectif de mon premier essai est la mise au point d’un cadre théorique permettant d’étudier l’incidence des coûts marginaux croissants et des contraintes de capacité sur les marges extensives et intensives des échanges commerciaux et sur la durée des exportations. Contrairement au cas avec coûts marginaux constants, avec une structure convexes des coûts, une augmentation de la productivité des firmes n’induit pas obligatoirement une augmentation des destinations. Nos résultats empiriques attestent que que les exportations perdues suite aux flux terminés accroissent les exportations vers les "marchés de repli" et réduisent la probabilité d’un échec d’exportation. À l’instar des autres études sur la survie des exportations, les tarifs réduisent la probabilité de l’échec d’exportation, mais nous montrons qu’ils ont l’effet opposés lorsque l’endogénéité est résolue. Le deuxième essai s’intéresse à l’effet des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux et la fermeture des frontières. Le commerce international des animaux vivants et des produits d’origine animal est très souvent entravé par les épidémies animales qui se propagent très vite entre pays. Nous nous appuyons sur un cadre empirique fondé sur le modèle de sélection multivariés pour examiner l’impact des maladies spécifiques aux animaux sur les marges extensives et intensives des flux commerciaux dans le temps. Les résultats montrent que la fièvre aphteuse et la ’encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine (ESB) ont un impact négatif sur les marges extensives et intensives du commerce des bovins et du boeuf et ce, pendant approximativement sept années. Nos résultats suggèrent que les effets des maladies animales sur la marge extensive sont plus grands que leur effets correspondants sur la marge intensive. En ce qui concerne les effets inter-espèces, la grippe aviaire et la peste porcine réduisent la probabilité et le niveau des échanges de bovins et de boeufs. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous estimons l’effet d’une élimination hypothétique des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux. Plus spécifiquement, nous examinons comment ESB et la fièvre aphteuse impactent les flux commerciaux de viande bovine. Le modèle de gravité structurelle sectorielle est utilisé pour mésurer les effets directs, conditionnels et globaux, en permettant ainsi aux indices de résistance multilatéraux entrants et sortants et aux prix à la production de s’ajuster à l’éradication des maladies animales. Les canaux indirects par lesquels l’ESB et la fièvre aphteuse influent sur le commerce sont importants. Notre expérience contrefactuelle suggère que le Canada serait l’un des pays tirant le meilleur parti de l’éradication de l’ESB et de la fièvre aphteuse.
Dans cette thèse nous avons exploré trois questions de recherche sur le commerce international dans le sector agricole. Dans le premier chapitre, nous avons regardé l’implication des coûts marginaux croissants sur la durée des flux d’exportation. Les récentes études empiriques suggèrent que les firmes ont des coûts marginaux croissants. Par conséquent, les ventes d’une firme sur un marché influent sur ses coûts et sa compétitivité sur tous les marchés, et donc sur sa survie sur divers marchés d’exportation. L’objectif de mon premier essai est la mise au point d’un cadre théorique permettant d’étudier l’incidence des coûts marginaux croissants et des contraintes de capacité sur les marges extensives et intensives des échanges commerciaux et sur la durée des exportations. Contrairement au cas avec coûts marginaux constants, avec une structure convexes des coûts, une augmentation de la productivité des firmes n’induit pas obligatoirement une augmentation des destinations. Nos résultats empiriques attestent que que les exportations perdues suite aux flux terminés accroissent les exportations vers les "marchés de repli" et réduisent la probabilité d’un échec d’exportation. À l’instar des autres études sur la survie des exportations, les tarifs réduisent la probabilité de l’échec d’exportation, mais nous montrons qu’ils ont l’effet opposés lorsque l’endogénéité est résolue. Le deuxième essai s’intéresse à l’effet des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux et la fermeture des frontières. Le commerce international des animaux vivants et des produits d’origine animal est très souvent entravé par les épidémies animales qui se propagent très vite entre pays. Nous nous appuyons sur un cadre empirique fondé sur le modèle de sélection multivariés pour examiner l’impact des maladies spécifiques aux animaux sur les marges extensives et intensives des flux commerciaux dans le temps. Les résultats montrent que la fièvre aphteuse et la ’encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine (ESB) ont un impact négatif sur les marges extensives et intensives du commerce des bovins et du boeuf et ce, pendant approximativement sept années. Nos résultats suggèrent que les effets des maladies animales sur la marge extensive sont plus grands que leur effets correspondants sur la marge intensive. En ce qui concerne les effets inter-espèces, la grippe aviaire et la peste porcine réduisent la probabilité et le niveau des échanges de bovins et de boeufs. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous estimons l’effet d’une élimination hypothétique des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux. Plus spécifiquement, nous examinons comment ESB et la fièvre aphteuse impactent les flux commerciaux de viande bovine. Le modèle de gravité structurelle sectorielle est utilisé pour mésurer les effets directs, conditionnels et globaux, en permettant ainsi aux indices de résistance multilatéraux entrants et sortants et aux prix à la production de s’ajuster à l’éradication des maladies animales. Les canaux indirects par lesquels l’ESB et la fièvre aphteuse influent sur le commerce sont importants. Notre expérience contrefactuelle suggère que le Canada serait l’un des pays tirant le meilleur parti de l’éradication de l’ESB et de la fièvre aphteuse.
In standard trade models with constant average cost, the firm’s sales in any given market is related to other markets only through price indices which are treated as exogenous in the firm’s optimization. With cost convexity, the firm’s decision in any given market is directly tied to sales in other markets through an index aggregating the trade cost-adjusted market size of the destinations supplied by the firm. The difference made by increasing costs is that the firm is cognizant that by changing its sales in a given destination it changes its unit cost for all destinations. This in turn triggers extensive and intensive margins adjustments. In the first essay, we develop a theoretical framework to address the incidence of increasing marginal costs and capacity constraints on trade at the extensive and the intensive margins and on export duration. Under convex costs, an increase in productivity may not increase the number of destinations supplied by a firm, making "ins and outs", not just new entries. We generated empirical evidence in support of the aforementioned trade adjustments by assessing the incidence of lagged foregone exports on exports to "fallback markets" and on export survival. Exports to the fallback markets systematically increase in response to foregone sales from terminated trade flows. Similarly, the sum of foregone sales from terminated trade flows make existing trade flows more resilient, less prone to an export failure. A distinguishing feature of our survival models is that they test and correct for the endogeneity of tariffs. Previous studies reported peculiar results about the incidence of tariff on export survival. We too find wrong signs when tariff is treated as an exogenous variable, but we find that higher tariffs increase the likelihood of export failures when tariff endogeneity is addressed. The second essay investigates the dynamic impacts of animal disease outbreak on cattle and beef trade accounting for vertical linkage between cattle and beef. The empirical framework features a multi-sample selection model (MSSM) to investigate how animal-specific diseases affect aggregate trade flows at the extensive and intensive margins of trade in livestock and meat products over time, accounting for constraints imposed by the technological linkages between livestock and meat productions. The spontaneous emergence of foot and mouth disease adversely impacts the extensive and intensive margins of trade in cattle and beef for seven years. Our results show that the extensive margin effects of the disease outbreak are larger than its corresponding intensive margin effects. Regarding cross-species effects, the avian flu and swine fever reduce the probability and the level of trade in cattle and beef. The third essay studies a counterfactual experiment about the elimination of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the foot and mouth diseases (FMD) on beef trade flows. Disease outbreak alerts typically prompt importing countries to impose trade bans. The bans vary a lot across importing countries in terms of product coverage and duration. We rely on a unique balanced panel dataset that covers 4-digit disaggregated beef product over the 1996-2013 period. Previous gravity studies reported only partial trade flow effects. However, a large shock like the complete elimination of BSE and FMD diseases must affect the inward and outward multilateral resistance indices (i.e., the importing countries’ barriers on beef imports from all sources and the trade barriers faced by exporting countries in all destinations), factory-gate prices, consumer expenditures and the value of beef production in exporting countries. Our results confirm that the indirect channels through which BSE and FMD impact trade are important when it comes to measuring welfare gains. Interestingly, our counterfactual experiment suggests that Canada would be one of the countries gaining the most from BSE and FMD eradication.
In standard trade models with constant average cost, the firm’s sales in any given market is related to other markets only through price indices which are treated as exogenous in the firm’s optimization. With cost convexity, the firm’s decision in any given market is directly tied to sales in other markets through an index aggregating the trade cost-adjusted market size of the destinations supplied by the firm. The difference made by increasing costs is that the firm is cognizant that by changing its sales in a given destination it changes its unit cost for all destinations. This in turn triggers extensive and intensive margins adjustments. In the first essay, we develop a theoretical framework to address the incidence of increasing marginal costs and capacity constraints on trade at the extensive and the intensive margins and on export duration. Under convex costs, an increase in productivity may not increase the number of destinations supplied by a firm, making "ins and outs", not just new entries. We generated empirical evidence in support of the aforementioned trade adjustments by assessing the incidence of lagged foregone exports on exports to "fallback markets" and on export survival. Exports to the fallback markets systematically increase in response to foregone sales from terminated trade flows. Similarly, the sum of foregone sales from terminated trade flows make existing trade flows more resilient, less prone to an export failure. A distinguishing feature of our survival models is that they test and correct for the endogeneity of tariffs. Previous studies reported peculiar results about the incidence of tariff on export survival. We too find wrong signs when tariff is treated as an exogenous variable, but we find that higher tariffs increase the likelihood of export failures when tariff endogeneity is addressed. The second essay investigates the dynamic impacts of animal disease outbreak on cattle and beef trade accounting for vertical linkage between cattle and beef. The empirical framework features a multi-sample selection model (MSSM) to investigate how animal-specific diseases affect aggregate trade flows at the extensive and intensive margins of trade in livestock and meat products over time, accounting for constraints imposed by the technological linkages between livestock and meat productions. The spontaneous emergence of foot and mouth disease adversely impacts the extensive and intensive margins of trade in cattle and beef for seven years. Our results show that the extensive margin effects of the disease outbreak are larger than its corresponding intensive margin effects. Regarding cross-species effects, the avian flu and swine fever reduce the probability and the level of trade in cattle and beef. The third essay studies a counterfactual experiment about the elimination of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the foot and mouth diseases (FMD) on beef trade flows. Disease outbreak alerts typically prompt importing countries to impose trade bans. The bans vary a lot across importing countries in terms of product coverage and duration. We rely on a unique balanced panel dataset that covers 4-digit disaggregated beef product over the 1996-2013 period. Previous gravity studies reported only partial trade flow effects. However, a large shock like the complete elimination of BSE and FMD diseases must affect the inward and outward multilateral resistance indices (i.e., the importing countries’ barriers on beef imports from all sources and the trade barriers faced by exporting countries in all destinations), factory-gate prices, consumer expenditures and the value of beef production in exporting countries. Our results confirm that the indirect channels through which BSE and FMD impact trade are important when it comes to measuring welfare gains. Interestingly, our counterfactual experiment suggests that Canada would be one of the countries gaining the most from BSE and FMD eradication.

This thesis explores how the medieval English economy was supplied with horse power during the period of 1250-1349. The diffusion of horse power is recognised to have been a major factor in the development of the medieval English economy, increasing labour productivity in farming and the efficiency of overland transport, but the infrastructures through which these animals were produced and distributed is poorly understood. This thesis is the first study that addresses this significant gap in our understanding of medieval English history and it endeavours to answer two questions: how was the country supplied with working horses, and what implications did the trade in these animals have for the economy and society at the time? The first section uses statistical analyses of over three hundred manorial accounts from c.1300 to explore the role of medieval English demesnes (the home farms of lords, as opposed to the lands of their peasant tenants) in the horse trade. The second section uses both quantitative and qualitative methodologies in exploring tax records and manorial court rolls to assess the role of the peasantry in the horse trade. The third section employs a price database constructed from the manorial account sample and is used to establish price levels for agricultural horses and illustrate the structure and nature of the market for the animals.

Protectionism is found to be the most significant cause of distortion in the international wheat market. In some cases, however, in particular the US Export Enhancement Program, it appears to be counter-distortionary i.e. redressing distortions on trade patterns caused by other protectionist policies. Also, the effects of including in the model countries additional to those in the basic model are analysed, and a comparison with the international soya market is made.

The thesis examines a long-standing North American trade dispute. At the centre of the conflict is the allegation by the U.S. softwood lumber industry that low provincial government stumpage fees constitute a subsidy to the Canadian softwood lumber industry. The thesis evaluates the subsidy allegation in the context of the British Columbia forest sector. The amount of Ricardin rent captured by the B.C. forest industry is decisive evidence leading to the conclusion that there is no provincial government subsidy to the softwood lumber industry. The argument is supported by evidence that lower stumpage fees in British Columbia only compensate for high costs in other areas of production. The outcome of the softwood lumber dispute is of critical importance to Canada.

The common agricultural policy (CAP) is a much discussed policy in the European Union (EU). It allocates great sums to the European agricultural sector every year and has been accused of being trade distorting and outdated. This thesis takes a closer look at what protectionist measures the CAP has used. The policy’s effects on trade will be assessed employing the sugar industry as a reference case. Sugar is heavily protected and is one of the most distorted sectors in agriculture. The CAP effects on trade in the sugar industry for ten countries in and outside the EU from 1991 to 2011 are estimated using a gravity model. This particular type of estimation has, to the author’s knowledge, not been performed for the sugar industry before, which makes the study unique. The results of the empirical testing indicates that trade diversion occurs if one country is a member of the CAP and its trading partner is not. When both trading partners are outside the CAP cooperation, they are estimated to have a higher trade volume. This result indicates that the CAP decreases trade. Current economic theory, in particular the North-South model of trade developed by Krugman (1979), suggests that protectionism of non-competitive sectors should be abolished and funds should instead be directed to innovation and new technology. The CAP is in this sense not adapted to modern economic thought.

Fifteen countries which are members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have embarked on a regional integration initiative. In 1996, a trade protocol that aimed to increase trade among members by removing trade barriers was signed. In the year 2000, this protocol was implemented, leading to a Free Trade Area (FTA) in 2008. More than 85 % of SADC trade was free of customs duties from 2008 onwards. However, while custom tariffs were reduced, the share of SADC trade did not show any improvement over the tenyear period after implementing the trade protocol. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to examine the factors which contributed to lack of improvement in SADC trade, particularly the role of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs). One of the main challenges in analysing NTMs in SADC is the unavailability of relevant information. An SADC NTM database was built as a repository of official NTMs. In order to quantify NTMs, a database was classified, similarly to the international database. Agricultural products at HS 4-digit level for ten SADC countries were included in this repository, and groupedinto six main categories; namely animal products, cereals, horticultural products, oilseeds, industrial and processed products. The trade data challenges within SADC countries inadvertently prescribed the econometric methods to apply for the set objectives of the study. The two main challenges of SADC trade data are missing data for some years and high percentage of zero trade flows. A latent threshold gravity model was employed with hierarchical specification to control for country effects. The hierarchical model captures individual country effects, such as the impact of NTMs on trade volumes, and thus intra-SADC trade. Such impact was then assessed when an additional NTM is introduced or increases trade volumes. The two effect models were examining the attributes of changes in regional trade, as well as those attributes of change in NTMs. The effects NTMs were incorporated into the model by weighting the number of NTMs by share of trade in the region, as well as ranks of country NTMs within product groups. Types of NTMs which were estimated are Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary measures (SPS), Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and an aggregation of all other NTMs which do not belong to the two groups. Results show that there is evidence NTMs were increasing at the same period when tariffs were being reduced. Using the inventory methods of evaluating presence and prevalence of NTMs, it was also evident that NTMs are used across most agricultural products. The percentage of products affected by NTMs in 2010 was much higher than in 2000. The econometric model results show that all gravity model variables, GDP, border and language were consistent with the theoretical expectations.Distance does nothave significant influence on SADC trade. The reason for this has to do with the trading pattern of SADC countries, which is very high between contiguous members, compared to non-contiguous members. The estimation of zero observed trade, using a threshold model, provided additional understanding of the role and reasons for such trade. The estimated effects of the observed zero trade showed that if this threshold is high, implying that trade costs (NTMs) are restricting trade, then zero trade was observed. When high percentage of zero trade is observed, then intra-SADC trade remains small or declines. However, if the threshold is low, intra-SADC trade increases, as was observed in the case of industrial products. The overall results confirm that NTMs do have an impact on intra-SADC trade. Industrial and cereal products are more responsive to NTMs than the other five product groups. A unit change in NTMs by regional trade members has more effects on intra- regional trade than a unit change in trade value. That is the case because the SADC is already exchanging a large share of its total trade with non-SADC members. Therefore, attention should be given to addressing the way NTMs are introduced. One of the important findings from the study is that the intra-SADC trade is affected more by the effect of an additional NTM, than an additional unit of trade in value. The effect of addressing NTMs is one and half more than those of additional trade value. So, in order to improve intra-SADC trade performance, focus must on addressing the NTMs and growing trade. In addressing NTMs, it does not necessarily require removing or even reducing them. It is about making it easy to comply with them. SADC trade can be improved substantially by aiming to harmonise NTMs and overall policies.
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
lk2014
Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development
PhD
unrestricted

Magister Legum - LLM
The aim of the research is to establish how trade distorting agricultural subsidies have impacted South Africa’s agricultural exports. The research will explore trade distorting subsidies and how South Africa’s trade liberalisation approach relative to its trading partners have impacted South Africa’s trade output, as well as suggesting effective policy recommendations for South Africa’s agricultural trade going forward.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in import and export demand in China and India on the United States and global agriculture in 2018. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize production and trade in China, India, and other major importing and exporting regions in the world. This research focuses on four primary crops: wheat, com, rice and soybeans. In the model China and India are divided into 31 and 14 producing and consuming regions, respectively. The model also includes five exporting countries and ten importing countries/regions. The results indicate that India will be able to stay largely self-sufficient in 2018 and China will increase its soybean and com imports to meet rising domestic demand. The research also gives perspectives on production and trade in the United States and other major exporting and importing countries.

Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2000.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the Trade Development and Co-operation Agreement (TDCA) creates competitive challenges and opportunities, labour and capital will seek the highest returns, dri ving out less efficient performances while bolstering more efficient enterprises and industries. This dynamic process of adjustments will continue throughout the implementation of this agreement. The South African government sees the agreement with the European Union as a step towards restructuring the country's economy and making it part of the rapidly changing world economy. This policy view of the South African government will result in those sectors of the economy that are not internationally competitive, receiving no support from government. Consequently these sectors will decrease in time. Of the three agricultural profiles studied, fresh fruit (deciduous fruit) will benefit the most from the TDCA. The most obvious effect the agreement will have on the sector is the saving on customs duties payable on exports to the EU. An estimate on 1997 trade figures revealed that in the short term the deciduous fruit industry will save approximately RI00 million. Over the implementation period of 10 years, the industry will save about Rl billion. After that, savings amounting to approximately R125 million per annum should be possible. The canned fruit sector is an export-driven industry that exports about 90 per cent of its products, 50 per cent of which is exported to the EU. The export tariffs to the EU are very high. As non-EU member, South Africa is the biggest provider of canned fruit to the EU. Some analyses revealed that the total savings in tariffs for the first year of implementation will be R25 million. The industry stands to save approximately R100 million over the implementation period. At the EU's request, South Africa agreed to negotiate a separate Wine and Spirits Agreement. The EU believes that South Africa's continued use of certain "geographical indications" or terms is in breach of Article 23 of the Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement. The quotas granted by the EU on wine and sparkling wine cover 79 per cent of South African exports to the EU. South Africa granted the EU a 0.26 million litre quota for sparkling wine and a 1 million-litre quota for bottled wine. SA will phase out the use of the terms "port", "sherry", "grappa", ouzo", "korn" , "jagertee" and "pacharan" over agreed time periods. The issue will be taken to the WTO for a ruling in this regard. The EU has agreed to grant SA a duty-free tariff quota for wine but has suspended the tariff quota until the Wine and Spirits agreement has been signed. The EU will also provide financial assistance of 15 million ECU to help restructure the SA wine and spirits sector. The South African agricultural industry should take note of the constantly changing international marketing environment. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed with the European Union opens up new markets and enhances existing ones that must be exploited. It is imperative that every role player should evaluate the level of competitiveness of his or her enterprise. Thus the message is very clear: Agricultural production with an international trading view is the only sustainable road to follow.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die Handel, Ontwikkelings en Samewerkingsooreenkoms kompeterende geleenthede en uitdagings skep, sal arbeid en kapitaal verskuif na die hoogste opbrengste beskikbaar. In hierdie proses sal daar wegbeweeg word van onvoldoende prestasies en sal effektiewe ondememings en industriee floreer. Hierdie dinarniese proses van herstruktuering sal voortduur regdeur die implementeringsperiode van hierdie handelsooreenkoms. Die Suid Afrikaanse regering beskou die ooreenkoms met die Europese Unie as 'n belangrike stap in die proses om die land se ekonomie te herstrukltureer en so deel te maak van die vinnig veranderende wereld ekonomie. Hierdie regerings beleid sal daartoe lei dat sektore wat nie intemasionaal mededingend is nie, geen ondersteuning vanaf die regering sal ontvang nie. Met tyd sal hierdie sektore verdwyn. Van die drie landbousektore wat bestudeer is, sal vars vrugte (sagte vrugte) die meeste voordeel trek uit die ooreenkoms. Die besparing van aksynsbelasting op die uitvoere na die Europese Unie is die mees kenmerkendste voordeel vir die sektor. 'n Beraming gebaseer op 1997 handels syfers toon 'n jaarlikse besparing van plus minus R100 miljoen. Deur die hele implementeringsperiode, sal die besparing plus minus Rl biljoen beloop. Na afloop van die implementeringsperiode, sal jaarlikse besparing van plus minus R125 miljoen moontlik wees. Die inmaak vrugte sektor is 'n uitvoer gedrewe industrie wat gemiddeld 90 persent van hul prod uk uitvoer. Van hierdie uitvoere is 50 persent bestem vir die Europese Unie. Die uitvoertariewe na die Europese Unie is baie hoog. As nie-lidland, is Suid Afrika die grootste verskaffer van geblikte vrugte aan die Europese Unie. Beramings voorsien dat die sektor 'n totale besparing vir die eerste jaar van implemetering van plus minus R25 miljoen kan beloop. Die industrie kan soveel as R100 rniljoen oor die implementeringsperiode bespaar. Op die Europese Unie se versoek, het Suid Afrika ingestem om 'n afsonderlike Wyn en Spiritualie ooreenkoms te onderhandel. Die Europese Unie beweer dat Suid Afrika se gebruik van sekere "geografiese aanduidings" of terme, In verbreking is van Artikel 23 van die Handelsverwante Aspekte van die Intellektuele Eiendomsregte Ooreenkoms. Wyn en vonkelwyn kwotas wat deur die Europese Unie aan Suid Afrika toegestaan is, beloop 79 persent van die uitvoere na die Europese Unie. Suid Afrika het die Europese Unie In kwota van 0.26 miljoen liter vir vonkelwyn en 1 miljoen kwota vir gebottelde wyn toegestaan. Voorts sal Suid Afrika die terme "port", "sherry", "grappa", "ouzo", "kom" , "jagertee" and "pacharan" met die ooreengekome peri odes uitfaseer. Die aspek sal egter na die WHO geneem word vir In finale beslissing. Die Europese Unie het ooreengekom om aan Suid Afrika In tarief vrye kwota vir wyn toe te staan, maar het dit opgehef tot tyd en wyl die Wyn en Spiritualie ooreenkoms onderteken is. Die Europese Unie sal ook finansiele ondersteuning van 15 miljoen ECU skenk om die Suid Afrikaanse Wyn en Spiritualiee industrie te help hestruktureer. Suid Afrikaanse Landbou sal notisie moet neem van die konstante verandering in die intemasionale bemarkingsomgewing. Die Vrye Handelsooreenkoms wat geteken is met die Europese Unie, open nuwe markte en sal bestaande markte bevorder. Hierdie geleenthede moet benut word. Dit is baie belangrik dat elke rolspeler sy vlak van kompeterende vermoe moet evalueer, om so sy eie siening oor die ooreenkoms te kan uitspreek. Hieruit is die boodskap dus baie duidelik: Landbou produksie met In intemasionale handels uitkyk, is die enigste volhoubare pad om te volg.

This research recommended ways in which Nigeria could unlock constraints to commercialization and investment in the Nigerian agricultural sector for sustained economic growth, enhanced food security, increased competitiveness of products in the domestic, regional and international markets, sustainable environmental management and poverty alleviation.