Academic literature on the topic 'Agriculture Agricultural credit'

The study was aimed to Know growth and forecast the amount of demand for agricultural sector credit at PT. BRI (Persero) Unit Kepahiang I, and (2) examine factors influencing for agricultural sector credit. Data was secondary data from 1993 up to 2003. Ratio to Moving Average Method, Double Exponential Smoothing with moved period 3 monthly and regression function of Non Doubled Linear were used. Results of research indicates that growth of demand for agricultural credit at PT. SRI (Persero) Unit Kepahiang I tend to fluctuate. Forecasting of demand for agricultural sector creditb to period quarterly at 2003 till 2004, tend to have experience decreasing significantly compare to previous period. Overall of factors influencing demand of agricultural sector is rate of interest level (X1), price level (X2), and agriculture product exchange rate (X3), while earning level (X4) does not have an effect on demand Key Words: BRI, Forecasting, demand for credits,agricultura/s , sectors

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigated the impact of commercial bank credits on agricultural output in Nigeria over the period 1980 to 2015 by setting three specific objectives which are to examine the trend of commercial bank credit and agricultural output in Nigeria; to investigate the effect of commercial bank credit on agricultural output in Nigeria and to investigate the effect of commercial bank credit on subsector of agriculture in Nigeria. The trend analysis and the impact of commercial bank credit on subsector of agriculture in Nigeria make this work unique and different from other studies in this area. Trend analysis was used to achieve the first objective and fully modified ordinary least square (OLS) for objective two and three. Methodology. The study employed Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) approach. Findings. It was evidenced that interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture and deposit money bank’s assets are statistically significant in determine agricultural output in Nigeria within the period considered. Also, commercial bank loan on agriculture and deposit money bank’s assets determine the output of crop production in Nigeria; commercial bank loan on agriculture and interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture determine the output of livestock production in Nigeria and commercial bank loan on agriculture and interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture determine the output of forestry in Nigeria while commercial bank loan on agriculture and interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture determine the output of fishing in Nigeria. Limitations. This study is limited because the study does not include other variables that determine the output of agricultural sector in Nigeria. Also, other theories and methods can still be used by other researcher to make it different from this work. Originality. This is an original work and has neither been published in any other peer-reviewed journal nor is under consideration for publication by any other journal.

AbstractAgricultural credit organisations are paramount to every country because agriculture must operate under threats of risk and uncertainty. When small-scale family farms are dominant, all types of agricultural organisations become important to keep farmers’ incomes at a reasonable level and encourage agricultural development. Midhat Pasha understood the importance of agricultural organisations, and he created a well-designed system for agricultural credit. He is the founder of Homeland Coffers that distribute credits to farmers. The original side of these credit organisations was capital accumulation and the methods of using it. Capital for these Coffers were provided by the joint actions of credit users. Midhat Pasha connected two cooperatives while the production cooperative provided capital for Homeland Coffers, they operated as a credit cooperative for twenty-five years in the Ottoman Empire. This credit organisation helped development of agriculture and provided many social benefits to the rural area.

Agriculture has long been Côte d’Ivoire’s main source of export income and the first largest sector providing employment. For several decades, Ivorian agriculture remained unmodernized. The modernization of agriculture requires both public and private funding. Despite some efforts, financing of agriculture is not effective in Côte d'Ivoire due to the lack of real commitment from the private sector and commercial banks. The results showed that in the long-term agricultural credit and other variables have a positive and significant influence on agricultural added value. It is therefore recommended to increase agricultural credit and extend it to small producers.

Agricultural credit is required for the development of agriculture scenario in any economy. Commercial, cooperative and regional rural banks have extended agricultural credit to the farmers in Dakshina Kannada district of India. The effectiveness of agricultural credit system depends on the utilization of credit funds by the borrowers. The present study made an attempt to understand the factors influencing the utilization of agricultural credit of banks in Dakshina Kannada. The study used primary and secondary data. Primary data are gathered from the borrowers of banks operating in Dakshina Kannada district. The study found that there is an impact of demographic, agriculture and agricultural credit factors on the purpose of utilization of agricultural credit in Dakshina Kannada district.

Background:It is a known fact that the efficiency of credit facility positively contributes to production base of a sector, especially the Nigerian agricultural sector which is recognised as the heartbeat of the economy by employing over 70% of the country’s labour force; this forms the motivation for this study.Objective:This study examined the potential of agricultural credit facilities in terms of commercial bank credit to agriculture and agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund (ACGSF) and their corresponding interest rates to farmers towards increasing agricultural production as the pathway to food security in Nigeria.Method:The study employed the Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) econometric approach on the time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Development Indicators (WDI) for the period 1990-2016.Result:The result from ARDL showed that commercial banks credits and ACGSF increased food security by 8.12% and 0.002% respectively, while population reduces food security by 0.001%.Conclusion:The study concluded that population should be controlled through family planning and adequate financing of the ACFSF by the government and monitor commercial banks leading interest rates on credit facilities.

The agricultural sector in Eswatini is viewed as an engine to foster economic growth, reduce poverty and eradicate inequality. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Eswatini using annual data for the period starting from 1980 to 2016. Using the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), the empirical results indicated that in the long run, agriculture GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, broad money supply, and agriculture credit have a negative effect on agriculture GDP in Eswatini. In the short run the study indicated that the variation in agriculture GDP is largely significant caused by the lagged agricultural GDP, interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation. Money supply and agriculture credit contribute 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively to the variation in agricultural GDP. The study recommends that programs aimed at availing affordable credit to farmers should be prioritized to cushion the agriculture sector against adverse monetary policy shocks in the short to medium term, specifically interest rates, to ensure continuous production.

Agriculture industry plays an important role in the Indian economy and Banks can play an important role in bringing agricultural revolution, in removing indifference of wealth. Utilization of high technology and modern equipment in agriculture brings about production growth. Indian economy is emerging as one of the leading economies of the world which makes progress of agriculture sector very crucial. In an economy like India where agriculture is subsistence, Finance is considered as the basic ingredient for increase in agricultural productivity. Therefore, it becomes the main responsibility of the country is to provide strong support to this sector. Though impressive significant strides have been achieved in terms of spread network and outreach of institutions, the qualities of flow of financial resources to agriculture continue to be inadequate. The growth of agricultural credit in India depends mainly on Government intervention. Banking sector reforms directly affected the agricultural sector. This paper describes the effects of various banking sector reforms on agriculture and sources of agriculture credit.

The article is concerned with the analysis of the role of credit rationing in Czech agriculture on the case of large agricultural enterprises. The part of results, first presents the author’s derivation of the theoretical model (model CR-AS), which represents a good tool (approach) for the analysis of credit rationing on sector level. Second, the focus on large agricultural enterprises and relevant characteristic of agriculture ask for a small adjustment of the derived model CR-AS in the part of model application. Third, the adjusted model is expressed numerically by the employment of econometric methodology. The estimation of the model is made per partes. The co-integration is used for fitting the Cobb-Douglas production function, which embodies the long run production characteristics of large agricultural enterprises. The CR^Dcurve is derived based on the stability assumption of the production function that is essential considering the recursive nature of the model. Finally, the specified model is employed in the ex-post analysis of the impact of credit rationing on production level of large agricultural enterprises. The outputs of the analysis suggest that, in average, the group of large agricultural enterprises might not be directly influenced by possible presence of credit rationing on the agricultural loan market. Nevertheless, that might not be the case of small and middle enterprises. The analysis continues with the investigation of possible meeting of credit rationing within both the group of large agricultural enterprises and the group of small and middle enterprises and stresses his implications. Furthermore, the role of the PGRLF (Support and Guarantee Farm and Forestry Fund) is analysed and discussed on the subject of reduction of credit rationing phenomena on the agricultural loan market. 

This thesis attempts to evaluate the lending policy of Thailand's Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) from a developmental perspective. Firstly the question of access to institutional credit is examined in terms of the distribution of BAAC loans spatially and by the economic status of borrowers; secondly, the study uses the case study approach to analyse the farm-level effectiveness of three types of lending instrument a) short-term production loans, by scale of farming operation and access to irrigation (the "credit-only" model); b) short-term production loans with extension support (the credit extension model) and; c) long-term investment loans disbursed within the project framework (the project lending model). One of the case studies is drawn from the Central region and two from the Northeast. The results of the study indicate that for a variety of reasons, BAAC directs subsidised loans mainly towards the country's most agriculturally productive areas and most economically secure farmers. This orientation is long-established and is likely to have contributed to the problem of inequality in the distnbution of income and wealth in rural areas. Since 1975, institutional credit has been an important part of a government strategy to increase the flow of funds and provision of support services to the rural sector. The Bank has recruited large numbers of relatively poorer farmers. However, using farm-size as a measure of economic status shows that BAAC clients generally have larger farms than their neighbours. In the Northeastern region, the percentage of BAAC clients with farms below the median is only 11 per cent compared to 23 per cent for the Central and Eastern regions and 20 per cent country-wide. The bulk of loan disbursement is also directed towards medium- and large-scale farmers. Inter-provincial variations in the recruitment of and disbursement of loans to small-scale farmers, are explained in terms of varying strategies employed by branch managers to meet the terms and conditions of the Branch Evaluation Procedure, despite convincing evidence that repayment rates for this group are as good if not better than for larger-scale operators. Regardless of the Bank's economic orientation farm-level analyses of the effects of short-term borrowing show that production loans are most critical to and are used most effectively by small-scale farmers, particularly those in rainfed areas. At present, however, the farm-level effect of technical support, given in association with loans to small-scale farmers, though positive, is still weak. Improvement in the impact of the credit-extension model will depend on further development of the working relationship between BAAC and the Department of Agricultural Extension (DoAE). The effectiveness of long-term project loans, in terms of increasing the productive capacity and income-generating potential among smallscale farmers, is also limited. The challenge to the Bank is to develop projects that meet the Bank's criteria with regard to financial viability and also yield a good return to the borrower after loan repayment obligations have been met. The extent to which the BAAC can provide an equitable and effective service within the context of rural development policy as a whole, depends on active government intervention to prevent the erosion of the Bank's capital base, promotion of the type of interagency cooperation necessary to provide integrated support services to farmers, and prioritisation of planning for the small farm sector.

Master of Science
Department of Agricultural Economics
Vincent Amanor-Boadu
Food insecurity affects 16 percent of the population in northern Ghana, making food security a major focus for many of the development programs in the country. A major initiative to overcome food insecurity may involve the development of effective storage systems to help farmers control the flow of their production to markets and, thus, have higher control over the price they receive. While the poor storage infrastructure in the region is known, there is lack of knowledge about the factors motivating farmers to utilize storage in spite of these conditions. The purpose of this paper is to increase understanding about storage behavior of smallholder maize farmers in northern Ghana. A review of the literature indicates credit plays a large role in storage behavior. The purpose of this thesis is to bridge the gap between literature on storage as a bank, and on storage as a way to ensure food security. Specific objectives include: i) estimating formal and informal credit’s effects on storage behavior of smallholder maize growers, and ii) examining the effect of credit at various levels of storage. This analysis is based on data collected on 527 farmers in Ghana’s four northernmost regions obtained from an agricultural production survey conducted in 2013 and 2014 by USAID-METSS – a project funded by the Economic Growth Office of the USAID mission in Ghana. Ordinary Least Squares modeling was employed to determine the marginal effects of formal and informal credit on storage. Additionally, quantile regression modeling estimated the marginal effects at different levels of storage, including the median. The results indicate that formal credit and on-farm storage had statistically significant negative effects on maize storage at both the mean and median, but only farm output proved to be statistically significant at different levels across the storage distribution. On-farm storage had a statistically significant negative effect on storage when compared to storing off-farm at facilities like local store rooms. Carryover storage from the previous year tested to have statistically significant negative effects on storage. Under the conceptual framework utilized for this study, the results suggest that using formal credit increases a household’s food security.

Credit plays a significant role in agricultural growth, and it is understood that development of credit programmes will have a valuable impact on agricultural production earnings of smallholder farmers. It is also a strategic factor to poverty alleviation. In Gauteng, smallholder farmers source their loans commonly from informal moneylenders. This results in access to formal credit being at a low rate. Results show that low level of education, main occupation, group membership and household income are significant and have encouraging effects on access to credit financial services. The results also reveal that threats associated with borrowing are high interest rates and unavailability of credit financial institutions. These threats are the main challenges faced by smallholder farmers in this study. Financial institutions claim that farming is a risky business; the distance of getting to farmers makes the evaluation procedure challenging, and strict principles in the aspect of collateral is a main challenge in providing credit to smallholder farmers. It is recommended that accessibility to credit by smallholder farmers be developed by providing advanced financing schemes that will address problems of smallholder farmers who do not have security and thus reduce lengthy processing of documents and other requirements. In this manner, smallholder farmers may be stimulated to use formal credit and decrease their dependence on informal moneylenders, thus avoid higher interest rates, which will positively lead to increased smallholder farm production and household income.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Agricultural financing has a wide and deep history in Nigeria, owing to the fact that the Nigerian economy has huge potentials for growth especially from its agriculture sector which is the second largest contributor to GDP. Since the establishment of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme over 30 years ago, the total sum of 647,351 loans amounting to over N34 billion have been disbursed to farmers as at 2009. The result from this study shows that the guarantee scheme has been effective in providing agricultural financing as well as stimulating agricultural production in Nigeria. More specifically, the study found that, out of the five variables used in the models to determine agricultural performance, the credit finance provided under the ACGS and foreign exchange rates was found to be statistically significant to agricultural output. The credit provided under the ACGS has a significant effect on aggregate output; it was also found that the crop and the fishery subsectors are significantly affected by the credit finance provided under the ACGS, due to their short gestation period. However, the livestock and forestry subsectors do not have an immediate significant relationship with the credit finance due to their long gestation period; rather, they have a significant relationship with the depreciation of foreign exchange rates. A major policy implication from the study is that the government should continue to promote and support the operations of the ACGS to encourage farmers to invest their best efforts in agricultural production in Nigeria for food production and for enhanced agricultural export.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2005.
The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file viewed on (May 10, 2007) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The research examines agriculture value chain finance as it has been applied in the Komati Downstream Development Project. It seeks to assess whether the Komati Downstream Development Project has addressed the challenges of access to finance, markets and support services and enabled smallholder farmers in the project area to operate commercially. The Swaziland National Development Strategy of 1999 committed to increase investment in agriculture. The Komati Downstream Development Project was in line with this strategy. However, for smallholder farmers to commercialise they needed to first overcome the constraints they faced, which included access to finance, access to markets and access to both business and technical support. This research will contribute to future developments and decisions involving the increase of financial flows and investment to the agriculture sector in Swaziland and in other developing countries. This is an empirical research study primarily using a qualitative method to answer the research question. The research design included a review of documentary evidence from a desktop study to collect secondary data and a field study through face-to-face interviews to collect primary data. The primary data was gathered through semi-structured interviews. The organisations interviewed included ten farmers’ associations, the outgrower development department, Swaziland Industrial Development Company and Swaziland Water and Agriculture Development Enterprise. Content analysis was used to analyse the results identifying similar themes and patterns from the interview transcripts. Secondary data on the performance of the KDDP farmers with respect to production volumes and quality of produce was collected and analysed to answer the question whether the smallholder farmers had moved from operating at a subsistence level to a commercial one. The research findings show that the agriculture value chain finance approach as applied in KDDP has improved access to markets, access to finance and access to support and services, and, in the process, the smallholder farmers are now operating commercially. The farmers are able to engage with bigger markets for both inputs and outputs in large-scale sugarcane farming. However, notable findings were made with respect to access to finance and support. Most of the farmers reported the need for continued support by Swaziland Water and Agriculture Development Enterprise and training despite the need to wean them off. Regarding access to finance, farmers reported improved access with more financial institutions selling financial products to the farmers and wanting to finance them. However, none of the farmers’ associations interviewed had accessed additional funding from any of the financial institutions following the initial funding they had acquired. The farmers’ associations have instead turned to internal sources of funds. Though these challenges do not change the conclusion, they are of concern and need to be addressed.

Master of Agribusiness
Department of Agricultural Economics
Allen M. Featherstone
Institutions of the Farm Credit System (FCS) focus on risk-based lending in accordance with regulatory direction. The rating of risk also assists retail staff in loan approval, risk-based pricing, and allowance decisions. FCS institutions have developed models to analyze financial and related customer information in determining qualitative and quantitative risk measures. The objective of this thesis is to examine empirical account data from 2006-2012 to review the probability of default (PD) rating methodology within the overall risk rating system implemented by a Farm Credit System association. This analysis provides insight into the effectiveness of this methodology in predicting the migration of accounts across the association’s currently-established PD ratings where negative migration may be an apparent precursor to actual loan default. The analysis indicates that average PD ratings hold relatively consistent over the years, though the distribution of the majority of PD ratings shifted to higher quality by two rating categories over the time period. Various regressions run in the analysis indicate that the debt to asset ratio is most consistently statistically significant in estimating future PD ratings. The current ratio appears to be superior to working capital to gross profit as a liquidity measure in predicting PD rating migration. Funded debt to EBITDA is more effective in predicting PD rating movement as a measure of earnings to debt than gross profit to total liabilities, although the change of these ratios over time appear to be weaker indicators of the change in PD rating potentially due to the variable nature of annual earnings of production agriculture operations due to commodity price volatility. The debt coverage ratio is important as it relates to future PD migration, though the same variability in commodity price volatility suggests the need implement multi-year averaging for calculation of earnings-based ratios. These ratios were important in predicting the PD rating of observations one year into the future for production agriculture operations. To further test the predictive ability of the PD ratings, similar regression analyses were completed comparing current year rating and ratios to future PD ratings beyond one year, specifically for three and five years. Results from these regression models indicate that current year PD rating and ratios are less effective in predicting future PD ratings beyond one year. Furthermore, because of the variation in regression results between the analyses completed for one, three and five years into the future, it is important to regularly capture ratio and rating information, at least annually.

Agriculture is the leading strategic sector of Turkey as it was in entire world. Despite this strategic significance, risks and uncertainties because of the dependency on natural conditions turn agriculture into a disadvantaged sector. Just because of those disadvantages, agriculture is protected with various support policies throughout the world. Agricultural policies of Turkey have initiated with institutionalization policies of the Republican period and progressed through product supports, input supports and low-interest credit implementations of the planned period. These policies experienced serious reforms at the beginning of 2000s. Within the scope of Agricultural Reforms Implementation Project (ARIP), agricultural supports were tried to be gathered under a single roof and Direct Income Support (DIS) implementations have started. The DIS implementations lasted for 8 years and terminated in 2008. Current agricultural policy tools are implemented as area-based supports, subsidiary payments, rural development and agricultural insurance supports. The budget allocated to agriculture and the share of agricultural supports in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Turkey did not exhibit much change in years. Considering the policies and supports provided in developed countries and especially in European Union (EU) countries, it is recommended for Turkey that share of agricultural supports in total budget should be increased to levels in those countries.

Agricultural production depends on natural conditions. All the countries try to stabilize and increase the food supply for communities. For this reason, the agriculture sector, support policies analyzed and conducted well. In agricultural support policies, there are different objectives like raising farm incomes, production and productivity. In Turkey, agricultural is very important. Because certain part of the population of Turkey live in rural areas. There are agricultural activities. They support those living in urban areas, especially in times of crisis. People living in rural areas, as well as food and labor force ready for those living in urban areas. In 2001 is an important milestone in Turkish agricultural policies. Before 2001, agricultural support policies consisted of mainly market price support, credit support and input subsidies. New policies started to be implemented after 2001. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of success in the new agricultural support policies in the context of the agreement with the European Union. We tried to find the best way to deal with the current main problems of Turkish Agricultural Sector in last year's.

The aim of the paper is to is to quantify differences in structural and economic indicators between participants and nonparticipants of the investment support programmes in the Czech food industry at the beginning of the old programming period (2007). Research was conducted on a dataset of supported projects from the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Industry and Trade combined with structural and economic indicators of participating and nonparticipating companies provided by MagnusWeb database. Final database contained 1 225 companies. However, not all indicators were available for all companies. Original set of variables was selected through Principal Component Analysis. Propensity to be supported was calculated through probit regression. Public investment support has had pretensions to increase productivity of the food industry as well as the added value of agricultural production by supporting many operations in agricultural processing and marketing. Ex-post evaluation of the “old” programming period 2007–14 shows that companies with larger size, lower trade margin, optimal liquidity, lower debt ratio and higher credit debt ratio had higher propensity to be supported. Conclusions about size and credit debt ratio follow previous research by other authors that small companies had lower chance to be supported because of more difficult access to good advisory services and bank loans.

The agricultural sector of the economy is system-forming for Ukraine, guarantees the provision of food security of the state, forms the basis for the development of rural territories, influences environmental security, stimulates the development of other sectors of the economy. The level of financial security of the agrarian sector of the Ukrainian economy is caused by a number of factors, such as seasonal nature of production, limited shelf life of products, price disparity, low profitability, etc. Therefore, the purpose of the article is to analyze the development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine and the activities of the leading agroholdings of Ukraine, as well as to develop proposals for strengthening the financial security of the agricultural sector based on the results obtained. The goal of the study is based on a systematic approach and comparative economic analysis. The methodological basis is the general scientific methods and mechanisms for ensuring the financial security of enterprises. The conducted research has made it possible to establish that in recent years the financial security of the agricultural sector in Ukraine is carried out mainly through a set of programs, each of which is aimed at improving production efficiency. Over the past five years, capital investment and credit in agriculture have increased significantly. The article substantiates the need to manage the financial security of agro-industrial enterprises at the present stage of socio-economic development of Ukraine. The practical significance of the obtained results is determined by the fact that the conclusions and proposals can be used in the formation of the financial security strategy of the agricultural sector and the development of a mechanism for its implementation.

Within the agricultural policies of the country, supports are provided to producers for the implementation of certain activities. Sufficiency of such supports feedbacks received from the target groups using these supports. There are 141 agricultural facilities in Seferihisar dealing with organic farming and these facilities constituted the research universe. Full-count method was used to determine the research sample. A face-to-face questionnaire was performed with 100 farmers dealing with organic farming. Basic descriptive statistics were used to put forth the socio-economic status of the farmers, facility characteristics and their current status with regard to use of available agricultural supports. The factors influencing the use of available agricultural supports were analyzed by “Logistic Regression” method. Logistic regression analysis was performed to find out the utilization levels of available policies by the farmers dealing with organic farming. Farmer age was identified as the most significant factor influencing the utilization level of consultancy services provided by the state. On the other hand, credit utilization was identified as the most significant factor for the deficiency payments and fuel-fertilizer supports. Education levels was the most significant factor in using supports provided for organic farming and age was the most significant factor in using soil analysis supports. Results revealed age, educational level, credit use capability and land size as the most significant factors in utilization of agricultural policies and state supports. Development of such characteristics of the producers will increase the chance of success of available policies and proper allocation of agricultural supports.

The issues of improving the financial and credit mechanism for stimulating the development of the agro-industrial complex are considered. In the conditions of external and internal challenges, the coronavirus epidemic, there is a compression of the domestic market, a drop in effective demand, the profitability of the population, enterprises, the state, and the emergence of a budget deficit. This requires a fundamental change of financing mechanism and credit review criteria and approaches to aid sectors of the economy, improvement of the mechanism of agricultural lending on the basis of availability of Bank credit for borrowers. The necessity of conducting a hybrid combined monetary policy is justified.

In this paper we estimate the average treatment effect from access to extension services and credit on agricultural production in selected Andean countries (Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia). More specifically, we want to identify the effect of accessibility, here represented as travel time to the nearest area with 1,500 or more inhabitants per square kilometer or at least 50,000 inhabitants, on the likelihood of accessing extension and credit. To estimate the treatment effect and identify the effect of accessibility on these variables, we use data from the Colombian and Bolivian Agricultural Censuses of 2013 and 2014, respectively; a national agricultural survey from 2017 for Peru; and geographic information on travel time. We find that the average treatment effect for extension is higher compared to that of credit for farms in Bolivia and Peru, and lower for Colombia. The average treatment effects of extension and credit for Peruvian farms are $2,387.45 and $3,583.42 respectively. The average treatment effect for extension and credit are $941.92 and $668.69, respectively, while in Colombia are $1,365.98 and $1,192.51, respectively. We also find that accessibility and the likelihood of accessing these services are nonlinearly related. Results indicate that higher likelihood is associated with lower travel time, especially in the analysis of credit.

This paper evaluates the impact of the introduction of savings groups on poverty, vulnerability, and financial inclusion outcomes in rural Peru. Using a cluster randomized control trial and relying on both survey and administrative records, we investigate the impact of savings groups after more than two years of exposure. We find t hat savings groups channel expensive investments such as housing improvements and reduce households' vulnerability to idiosyncratic shocks, particularly among households in poorer districts. The treatment also induces changes in households labor allocation choices: access to savings groups increases female labor market participation and, in poorer areas, it fosters greater specialization in agricultural activities. Access to savings groups also leads to a four-percentage point increase in access to credit among women, mainly driven by access to the groups loans. However, the introduction of savings groups has no impact on the likelihood of using formal financial services.On the contrary, it discourages access to loans from formal financial institutions and microfinance lenders among the unbanked.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.