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Thorpe, Robert B., Simon Jennings, and Paul J. Dolder. "Risks and benefits of catching pretty good yield in multispecies mixed fisheries." ICES Journal of Marine Science 74, no. 8 (May 2, 2017): 2097–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsx062.
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Abstract Multispecies mixed fisheries catch ecologically interacting species with the same gears at the same time. We used an ensemble of size-based multispecies models to investigate the effects of different rates of fishing mortality (F) and fleet configurations on yield, biomass, risk of collapse and community structure. Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and FMSY for 21 modelled species’ populations in the North Sea were defined at the Nash equilibrium, where any independent change in F for any species would not increase that species’ MSY. Fishing mortality ranges leading to “Pretty Good Yield” (F-PGY), by species, were defined as ranges yielding ≥0.95 × MSY. Weight and value of yield from the entire fishery increased marginally when all species were fished at the upper end of F-PGY ranges rather than at FMSY, but risk of species’ collapse and missing community targets also increased substantially. All risks fell markedly when fishing at the lower end of F-PGY ranges, but with small impacts on total fishery yield or value. While fishing anywhere within F-PGY ranges gives managers flexibility to manage trade-offs in multispecies mixed fisheries, our results suggest high long-term yields and disproportionately lower risks of stock collapse are achieved when F ≤ FMSY for all component stocks.
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Li, Xiang. "Optimal procurement strategies from suppliers with random yield and all-or-nothing risks." Annals of Operations Research 257, no. 1-2 (July 1, 2015): 167–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-1923-4.
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De Wet, Milan Christian. "Geopolitical Risks and Yield Dynamics in the Australian Sovereign Bond Market." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 16, no. 3 (February 22, 2023): 144. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16030144.
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Geopolitical risks and shocks such as military conflicts, terrorist attacks, and war tensions are known to cause significant economic downturns. The main purpose of this paper is to determine the dynamics between Australian sovereign bond yields and geopolitical risk. This is achieved by employing a quantile regression analysis. The findings of this study indicate that the impact of geopolitical risk on Australian sovereign yield dynamics is asymmetrical. Furthermore, an increase in geopolitical risk only impacts short-term yields at extreme regimes. However, the impact is, by and large, insignificant. On the other hand, an increase in geopolitical risk does have a statistically significant positive impact on medium- and long-term yields across most quantiles. Lastly, an increase in geopolitical risk tends to result in a steeper yield curve at the belly of the curve but causes the yield curve to flatten at the long end. This study is the first study that holistically examines the dynamics between geopolitical risk and Australian sovereign bond yields. The study thereby contributes to the body of knowledge on Australian bond yields, specifically, and adds to the sparse body of knowledge on the dynamics between geopolitical risk and sovereign bond yields. The findings of this study have implications for monetary policy makers, given that shifts in sovereign bond yields could impact all three core mandates of the Australian Reserve Bank. Furthermore, changes in the slope of the yieldcurve could be used by monetary policy makers to pre-empt changes in future economic growth. The results of this study also relate to fiscal policy formulation, given that yields directly impact the cost of government borrowing. Lastly, portfolio managers could benefit from the results of this study, as these results provide information on the ability of Australian sovereign bonds to hedge against geopolitical risk.
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Ochieng, Hannington O., John O. Ojiem, Simon M. Kamwana, Joyce C. Mutai, and James W. Nyongesa. "Multiple-bean varieties as a strategy for minimizing production risk and enhancing yield stability in smallholder systems." Experimental Agriculture 56, no. 1 (March 20, 2019): 37–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0014479719000085.
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AbstractCommon bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is perhaps the most important grain legume in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) smallholder systems for food security and household income. Although a wide choice of varieties is available, smallholder farmers in western Kenya realize yields that are low and variable since they operate in risky production environments. Significant seasonal variations exist in rainfall and severity of pests and diseases. This situation is worsened by the low and declining soil fertility, coupled with low capacity of farmers to purchase production inputs such as fertilizers, fungicides and insecticides, and land scarcity. The objective of this study was to investigate whether growing multiple-bean varieties instead of a single variety can enable farmers enhance yield stability over seasons and ensure food security. Five common bean varieties were evaluated in multiple farms for 11 seasons at Kapkerer in Nandi County, western Kenya. Data were collected on grain yield, days to 50% flowering and major diseases. In addition, daily rainfall was recorded throughout the growing seasons. The five varieties were combined in all possible ways to create 31 single- and multiple-bean production strategies. The strategies were evaluated for grain yield performance and yield stability over seasons to determine the risk of not attaining a particular yield target. Results indicated that cropping multiple-bean varieties can be an effective way for reducing production risks in heterogeneous smallholder systems. Yield stability can be greatly enhanced across diverse environments, leading to improved food security, especially for the resource-poor smallholder farmers operating in risk-prone environments. Although the results show that some of the single-bean variety strategies were high yielding, their yield stability was generally lower than those of multiple strategies. Resource-poor risk averse farmers can greatly increase the probability of exceeding their yield targets by cropping multiple-bean varieties with relatively low yields but high grain yield stability. Trading-off high grain yield for yield stability might be an important strategy for minimizing bean production risks.
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Lafond, G. P., S. A. Brandt, B. Irvine, W. E. May, and C. B. Holzapfel. "Reducing the risks of in-crop nitrogen fertilizer applications in spring wheat and canola." Canadian Journal of Plant Science 88, no. 5 (September 1, 2008): 907–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.4141/cjps07169.
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Nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient in crop production on the Canadian prairies. There is great interest in managing it more effectively for environmental and economic reasons. Our objective was to study the effectiveness of using different proportions of recommended nitrogen rates at seeding with the balance at different crop growth stages to minimize the risks of potential yield losses from in-crop nitrogen applications in spring wheat and canola. The field trials with wheat were conducted at three locations from 2003 to 2006 and at two locations for canola from 2004 to 2006. The treatments consisted of applying 100, 67, 50, 33 or 0% of the targeted N rate at seeding using urea in mid-row bands and the balance in-crop at the 1.5, 3.5 or 5.5 leaf stages in spring wheat and at the 5-6 leaf stage, bolting or start of flowering stage in canola using surface dribble band of liquid urea-ammonium nitrate. With spring wheat, applying 33% of the recommended N rate at seeding with the balance in-crop resulted in similar yields to when all the nitrogen was applied at seeding in one study while, in the other, some yield loss was observed at the 3.5 leaf stage. This indicates that a higher proportion, such as 50%, would be more appropriate. With canola, a minimum of 50% of the recommended nitrogen rate was required at seeding and the in-crop application at or before the bolting phase to give yields equivalent to when all fertilizer was applied at seeding. Consequently, applying 50% or more of the recommended N at seeding enhances the opportunity for in-crop applications of nitrogen in spring wheat and canola to better match the soil and climatic conditions. Key words: Canola, wheat, split applications, liquid urea-ammonium nitrate, grain yield, grain protein
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Faye, Adama, Georges A. Abbey, Amadou Ndiaye, and Mbaye Diop. "Climate-Related Risks and Agricultural Yield Assessment in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin." Atmosphere 15, no. 10 (October 18, 2024): 1246. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101246.
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Climate change and variability pose significant threats to agricultural production, particularly in regions heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture like Senegal. The problem addressed in this study revolves around the impact of climate-related risks on agricultural yields in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin as a key agricultural region. Daily rainfall, temperatures, and yield over 1991–2020 were used. The data were analyzed using multiple regression, trend analysis, and correlation approaches. The results indicate that the overall seasonal precipitation increases over time (98 mm in the north and 103 mm in the south). However, we found that the south Groundnut Basin has a much slower seasonal precipitation rate than the northern zone. Our results also show that the northern zone exhibits a more consistent and predictable growing season, with onset and offset, in contrast with the southern zone, which shows higher variability. The analysis further reveals that both the northern and southern zones are experiencing a warming trend, with the southern zone showing a more pronounced increase in maximum temperatures (+0.7 °C) than to the northern zone (+0.4 °C). Estimates from the regression analysis revealed that total seasonal precipitation and maximum temperature positively and significantly influence groundnut, millet, and maize yields in the northern and southern zones. All the other weather-related parameters have different influences depending on the zone. These findings highlight the heterogeneous nature of the study area and the significant role climatic factors play in crop yield variability in the Groundnut Basin. Understanding these influences is crucial for developing targeted agricultural strategies and climate adaptation measures to mitigate risks and enhance regional productivity. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers and farmers aiming to improve crop resilience and sustain agricultural outputs amidst changing climatic conditions.
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Ülkü, M. Ali, Melek Akgün, Uday Venkatadri, Claver Diallo, and Simranjeet S. Chadha. "Managing Environmental and Operational Risks for Sustainable Cotton Production Logistics: System Dynamics Modelling for a Textile Company." Logistics 4, no. 4 (December 14, 2020): 34. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/logistics4040034.
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Effective management of cotton production logistics (CPL) against volatile environmental conditions while maintaining product quality and yield at acceptable costs has become challenging due to increasing global population and consumption and climate change. In CPL, the harvesting, processing, and storage of cotton are all linked, prone to various environmental risks (e.g., flooding) and operational risks (e.g., excess spraying of pesticides). Thus, it is crucial for a resilient and sustainable supply chain management to prioritize risks and chart suitable risk response strategies. For a CPL, we employ a system dynamics (SD) approach to investigate the likelihoods of environmental and operational risks and their impacts in four dimensions: variable costs, fixed costs, quality performance, and yield. Using the case of a textile company in Turkey, we demonstrate an end-to-end framework for mitigating CPL risks. SD simulation results show that increases in seed prices and machine and equipment breakdowns are the risks that most affect the unit cost, whereas pests and plant diseases most hurt cotton harvest yield. Via scenario analyses, we demonstrate that a proper risk response strategy, compared to doing nothing, may reduce variance in cotton quality by about 35% at the expense of about an 11% increase in unit cost variability.
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Turan, Metin, Seda Erenler, Melek Ekinci, Ertan Yildirim, and Sanem Argin. "Intercropping of Cauliflower with Lettuce Is More Effective for Sustainable Fertilizer Management and Minimizing Environmental Risks." Sustainability 14, no. 13 (June 28, 2022): 7874. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14137874.
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Intercropping systems are one of the sustainable agricultural models as they play an important role in protecting soil fertility, efficient use of resources, maintaining stable yields, and reducing the effectiveness of diseases and pests. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of intercropping (IC) cauliflower (Brassica oleracea L. var. botrytis) with leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. var. crispa) on the yield and quality parameters of cauliflower and to evaluate the overall productivity of the system under different nitrogen fertilization rates (160, 200, and 240 kg N ha−1). Our results showed that the leaf chlorophyll value (SPAD), plant weight, leaf weight, head diameter, head height, head weight, and total yield of cauliflower were found to increase as the nitrogen dose increased in both the monocropping (MC) and IC systems. The most efficient nitrogen fertilizer doses for cauliflower were 234.7 kg ha−1 for MC and 176.6 kg ha−1 for IC, respectively. When the intercropping system was used the total yield (cauliflower and lettuce) was higher than the yield of cauliflower (MC) for the same total area and fertilizer amount. The land equivalent ratio (LER) values were greater than 1 in the intercropping system at all fertilization rates, which indicated that the IC system was more productive than the MC system for the same unit of land. Our findings also showed that intercropping was an effective method to increase fertilizer use efficiency and the soil organic matter, nitrogen content, plant available P, K, Mg, Zn, Fe, Mn, and Cu. In conclusion, while intercropping cauliflower with lettuce did not adversely affect the yield of cauliflower, it enabled harvesting more plants (cauliflower and lettuce) from the same land area by using the same amount of fertilizer, which makes intercropping a sustainable, economical, and ecological model that increases the land-use and fertilizer-use efficiencies.
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Lafond, G. P., Y. T. Gan, A. M. Johnston, D. Domitruk, F. C. Stevenson, and W. K. Head. "Feasibility of applying all nitrogen and phosphorus requirements at planting of no-till winter wheat." Canadian Journal of Plant Science 81, no. 3 (July 1, 2001): 373–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.4141/p00-080.
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The recent advances in no-till seeding technology are providing new N management options for crop production on the prairies. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the potential interaction between P and N fertilizer on winter wheat production in a one-pass seeding and fertilizing system and to determine the feasibility of side-banding all N requirements using urea or anhydrous ammonia at planting as compared with the current practice of broadcasting ammonium nitrate early in the spring. Three forms of N fertilizer (urea, anhydrous ammonia, ammonium nitrate), three rates of N (50, 75 and 100 kg ha–1) and three rates of P (0, 9 and 17 kg P ha–1) were investigated. Urea and anhydrous ammonia were applied during the seeding operation, whereas ammonium nitrate was broadcast the following spring. Applying P fertilizer to the side and below the seed at planting with rates > 9 kg Pha–1 increased grain yield in 3 out of 6 site-years when ammonium nitrate was broadcast early in the spring. The positive yield response to P corresponded to soil test levels of 24 kg P ha–1. With soil test levels greater than 34 kg P ha–1, grain yield response to P fertilizer was not observed. When urea was banded at planting, together with P fertilizer, the yield increases with the increased P rates was shown only in 1 out of 6 site-years. At 5 of th e 6 site-years, grain protein concentration was not affected by P fertilizer; while for 1 site-year, the high rate of P fertilization decreased grain protein concentration. Responses of total grain N and P yields to P fertilization were parallel to the corresponding responses of P fertilization to grain yield, and were rarely associated with N or P concentrations in the grain. Applying N fertilizer at rates of 50 to 100 kg N ha–1 increased winter wheat grain yields by 3 to 8% in 3 out of 6 site-years. The high N rates increased grain protein concentrations in all 6 site-years. Grain protein concentration was 6% greater with N fertilizer applied as ammonium nitrate in early spring than when banding urea or anhydrous ammonia at planting. More consistent improvements in grain yield and grain protein concentration were obtained when the N fertilizer was applied as ammonium nitrate in the spring. Further research is required to determine the benefits of applying some of the crop’s N fertilizer requirements at planting, to reduce the risks of N stresses when the spring application is delayed because of adverse weather or soil conditions. Key words: Ammonium nitrate, anhydrous ammonia, grain yield, nitrogen timing, phosphorus, protein, urea
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Wang, Lei, Ling-Zhi Chen, Bo Peng, and Ying-Tien Lin. "Improved YOLOv5 Algorithm for Real-Time Prediction of Fish Yield in All Cage Schools." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 12, no. 2 (January 23, 2024): 195. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse12020195.
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Cage aquaculture makes it easier to produce high-quality aquatic products and allows full use of water resources. 3Therefore, cage aquaculture development is highly valued globally. However, the current digitalization level of cage aquaculture is low, and the farming risks are high. Research and development of digital management of the fish population in cages are greatly desired. Real-time monitoring of the activity status of the fish population and changes in the fish population size in cages is a pressing issue that needs to be addressed. This paper proposes an improved network called CC-YOLOv5 by embedding CoordConv modules to replace the original ConV convolution modules in the network, which improves the model’s generalization capability. By using two-stage detection logic, the target detection accuracy is enhanced to realize prediction of the number of fish populations. OpenCV is then used to measure fish tail lengths to establish growth curves of the fish and to predict the output of the fish population in the cages. Experimental results demonstrate that the mean average precision (mAP) of the improved algorithm increases by 14.9% compared to the original YOLOv5, reaching 95.4%. This research provides an effective solution to promote the intelligentization of cage aquaculture processes. It also lays the foundation for AI (Artificial Intelligence) applications in other aquaculture scenarios.
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Nogalska, Anna, Lin Chen, Stanisław Sienkiewicz, and Zenon Nogalski. "Meat and bone meal as nitrogen and phosphorus supplier to cereals and oilseed rape." Agricultural and Food Science 23, no. 1 (February 25, 2014): 19–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.23986/afsci.8841.
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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of meat and bone meal (MBM) on cultivation of winter triticale, winter oilseed rape, winter wheat and maize. The average annual yields and protein yield achieved in crop rotation were studied. The field trials were carried out in north-eastern Poland in 2006–2010. The factor was dose of MBM: 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 t ha-1 year-1 or 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 t ha-1 every other year. The four-year experiment has proven that MBM is a valuable nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer in cultivation of cereals and oilseed rape. By amendment of the tested meal into the soil it produced crop yield and protein yield similar to that achieved by mineral fertilization. However, the crude fat yield of rape was significantly higher under the influence of all the MBM doses. The yield-stimulating effect of MBM did not depend on the frequency of its application; therefore it is more convenient to apply it once every two years. Increasing MBM from 1.5 to 2.5 t ha-1 did not significantly increase any of the four crop yields, therefore for soils that had satisfactory nutrients content, 1 or 1.5 t ha-1 MBM is enough and increasing MBM will only increase economic burden for farmers and environmental risks.
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Acharya, Suresh, Rahul G. Dharaviya, and Kishan N. Patel. "Ascertaining Impact of Potassium Schoenite (Mahalaabh) on the Yield and Its Attributes in Wheat, Mustard and Onion." Journal of Advances in Biology & Biotechnology 27, no. 9 (September 5, 2024): 742–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/jabb/2024/v27i91347.
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Climate change and intensive farming necessitate precise nutrient application in agriculture. Potassium, magnesium and sulphur deficiencies impact crop yield and quality, while agrochemical residues pose environmental risks. Mahalaabh (K2SO4·MgSO4·6H2O), a natural and neutral potassium Schoenite compound containing potassium, sulphur and magnesium, addresses these challenges. Field experiments were conducted during the 2023-24 Rabi season at AGROCEL Industries Pvt. Ltd., Mandvi, to ascertain the effects of Mahalaabh on wheat, mustard and onion using a Randomized Block Design with different application methods and dosages. Mahalaabh improved yields across all crops compared to the RFD and commercial check K-mag. In wheat, drip application at 8 kg/acre increased yield by 31.27%, while foliar application twice at 15 g/L improved yield by 18.10%, due to increased ear length and test weight. For mustard, two applications at 10 kg/acre yielded a 12.75% increase, primarily attributed to more secondary branches, siliqua/plant and seeds/siliqua, with two applications more effective than the single ones. In contrast, single applications of Mahalaabh at 12.5 kg/acre increased onion yields by 29.20% and were comparable to the results obtained from two applications at the same rate (30.97% increase). Mahalaabh Powder proves effective for crop yield improvement, with optimal application methods and dosages varying by crop type.
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Mortimer, Michael J., and Rien J. M. Visser. "Timber Harvesting and Flooding: Emerging Legal Risks and Potential Mitigations." Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 28, no. 2 (May 1, 2004): 69–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sjaf/28.2.69.
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Abstract The relationship between timber harvesting in steep terrain and natural calamities such as flooding has recently coalesced as extensive litigation in West Virginia. Accusations that timber harvesting was responsible for widespread flooding includes novel uses of the legal theories of negligence per se and strict liability. Managing for increases in water yield, application of best management practices (BMP), and predictability of flooding events all play a role in whether timber operations are ultimately susceptible to liability for flooding events. The authors suggest that recent legal actions and difficulties in predicting the outcomes of such lawsuits necessitates a fundamental review of best management practice design and implementation. Consideration of water quantity BMP may be warranted. South. J. Appl. For. 28(2):69–75.
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Wang, Jiyue, Mohssen Elbagory, Yingdui He, Xu Zhang, Yongyong Hui, Mamdouh A. Eissa, Zheli Ding, et al. "Modeling of P-Loss Risk and Nutrition for Mango (Mangifera indica L.) in Sandy Calcareous Soils: A 4-Years Field Trial for Sustainable P Management." Horticulturae 8, no. 11 (November 13, 2022): 1064. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae8111064.
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The continuous addition of phosphorus (P) fertilizers above plant requirements increases P loss risks, especially if such fertilization practices continue long-term. The current study aims to determine the threshold value of P in plants and soil, which achieves the maximum mango fruit yield without P loss risk. P fertilizer doses (0–240 g tree−1) were added to 12-year-old mango (Mangifera indica L.) cv Hindy planted in sandy soil for four consecutive years. Soil and plant samples were collected each year to estimate the critical p values by linear–linear, quadratic, and exponential models. The relationships between fruit yield and available soil P were positive and significant in all the mathematical models. Mango fruit yield is expected to reach its maximum value if the sandy calcareous soil contains an available P amount ranging between 10–12 mg kg−1 and increasing the soil available P above this level leads to negligible increases in the fruit yield. Increasing the available soil P above 20.3 mg kg−1 increases P-loss risk. P concentrations in blades and petioles of mango leaves can be arranged as follows: beginning of the flowering stage > the full blooming stage > beginning of the fruiting stage. The analysis of petioles of mango leaves in the beginning of the flowering stage significantly corelated with mango fruit yield and can be used in predicting the response of mango to P fertilization. The findings of the present investigation revealed that the critical P in mango petioles ranged between 2.34 and 3.53 g kg−1. The threshold of available soil P for maximum fruit yield is half of P loss risks. The combined analysis of soil and plants is a powerful diagnostic tool for P management in sandy degraded soil. The findings of the current study are a good tool in achieving the optimum utilization of P fertilizer resources in maximizing mango fruit yield and reducing the risks of environmental pollution that result from excessive fertilization doses.
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Harnos, N., and É. Erdélyi. "Sustainable wheat production in a changing climate." Acta Agronomica Hungarica 59, no. 3 (September 1, 2011): 261–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aagr.59.2011.3.10.
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The dependence of winter wheat production on spring temperature and precipitation was analysed on the basis of historical meteorological data. Production was found to be a linear function of temperature, so increasing temperatures resulted in lower yields. The dependence of yield on precipitation could be described with a quadratic function, and the yield decreased above the optimal precipitation amount. The results of regression analysis are presented using 30-year data for Fejér County. Simulation modelling was used to analyse the suitability of future climates for growing winter wheat in Hungary. The locations chosen were heterogeneous in terms of meteorological conditions, but were all relatively flat and of great importance for Hungarian winter wheat production: Győr-Moson-Sopron County in W. Hungary, which is well supplied with precipitation, Hajdú-Bihar County in the east, where the weather is warmer and drier, and Pest County in the middle of the country. Evaluations were made using the Ceres-Wheat model and a modified version of AFRCWHEAT2. An analysis of the simulation results revealed that agricultural productivity is close to the upper limit of what can be achieved using conventional methods, so decreased yields and an increase in production risks are probable in the future in all three regions.
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Bigolin, Tiago, and Edson Talamini. "Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Corn and Soybean Double-Cropping System in Brazil." Climate 12, no. 3 (March 12, 2024): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli12030042.
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Brazil is one of the main producing and exporting countries of corn and soybean and a continental country with climatic diversity that allows the cultivation of these crops in various agricultural systems. Double cropping is a widely adopted system throughout the national territory, where it is possible to cultivate soybeans at the beginning of the growing season, followed by corn in succession, in the same growing season. The present study aims to systematize the scientific knowledge about the impacts of future climate change scenarios on yield and on the double-cropping system of soybean + corn in Brazil. Systematic review procedures were adopted. The soybean yield is projected to increase in all regions of Brazil under all climate scenarios. Corn yields under future climate scenarios are projected to decline, with the subtropical climate region being less affected than the northern regions. The double-cropping systems of soybean + corn tend to present increasing climate risks in tropical climate regions. Climate change scenarios point to a delay in the start of the rainy season that will delay the sowing of soybeans, consequently delaying the sowing of corn in succession, resulting in fewer rainy days to complete its cycle.
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Cui, Yi, Jiayan Wang, Jinghan Wang, Mingjie Kang, and Hui Zhao. "Quantifying the Impact of Surface Ozone on Human Health and Crop Yields in China." Atmosphere 16, no. 2 (January 31, 2025): 162. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16020162.
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In recent years, surface ozone (O3) pollution has emerged as a significant barrier to the continued improvement of air quality in China, making O3 risk assessment a critical research priority. Using nationwide O3 monitoring data, this research investigated the spatial characteristics of O3 pollution and assessed its potential impacts on human health and crop yields. The results showed that the maximum daily 8 h average O3 (MDA8 O3) exhibited higher concentrations in eastern and northern regions, and lower concentrations in the western and southern regions of China. Long-term O3 exposure was associated with an estimated 175,154 all-cause deaths nationwide, with the highest health risks observed in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu provinces. The AOT40 values for the winter wheat and single-rice growing seasons in China were 9.30 × 103 ppb·h and 1.29 × 104 ppb·h, respectively. Moreover, O3 exposure led to relative yield losses of 22.1% for winter wheat and 9.3% for single rice, corresponding to crop yield losses (CPLs) of 63 million metric tons and 14 million metric tons, respectively. Higher winter wheat CPL values were primarily concentrated in Henan, Shandong, and Hebei, while higher single rice CPL values were observed in Jiangsu, Hubei, and Anhui. This study presents a novel coupling of O3 pollution exposure with human health and agricultural risk assessments across China, emphasizing the need for region-specific O3 management strategies to protect public health and ensure agricultural sustainability. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of targeted O3 control in densely populated and major crop-producing areas to mitigate health risks and yield losses, thus safeguarding ecosystem health and food security.
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Monteiro, Leonardo A., and Paulo C. Sentelhas. "Sugarcane yield gap: can it be determined at national level with a simple agrometeorological model?" Crop and Pasture Science 68, no. 3 (2017): 272. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/cp16334.
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Brazilian sugarcane yield is below its physiological potential, which has compromised the crop’s profitability. This, together with the expansion of the crop to marginal areas with limiting climatic conditions, requires studies to quantify crop yield gaps (YG) and to identify their main causes (i.e. droughts and/or crop management). One way to determine YG is through crop simulation models, which vary in complexity, mainly in terms of input data requirements. This study evaluated whether a simple agrometeorological crop yield model could be suitable for estimating sugarcane YG at a national level, in order to consider and suggest practices to mitigate yield losses. The model was calibrated and evaluated for different conditions across the country. The calibrated model was used to estimate plant and ratoon sugarcane potential (Yp) and best farmer (Ybf) yields for 259 locations representing all regions of the country where sugarcane is grown. Weather data from 1984 to 2013 and general local soil information were used as inputs. The Yp and Ybf simulations were performed for 30 growing cycles, with the final yields being weighted by the proportion of plant (20%) and ratoon (80%) canes in each area. These data were compared with actual average yields (Yavg), obtained from official surveys. Sugarcane yields varied considerably across the country: Yp range was 68.5–232.7 t ha–1, Ybf 61.7–123.3 t ha–1, and Yavg 11.2–101.1 t ha–1. These yields resulted in an average total YG of 133.2 t ha–1. The main source of YG was water deficit, accounting for 75.6% of total losses, while crop management was responsible for 24.4%. Considering the main sources of YG for sugarcane in Brazil, the use of drought-tolerant cultivars, irrigation, and deep soil preparation seems the best strategy to mitigate the risks, improving yields. Based on these results, the simple agrometeorological crop yield model proved suitable to estimate sugarcane YG at national level.
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Chornovol, Аlla, and Iryna Drin. "DEVELOPMENT OF A PORTFOPLIO OF FINACIAL PAYMENT OBLIGATIONS PROTECTED FROM SYSTEMATIC RISKS." BULLETIN OF CHERNIVTSI INSTITUTE OF TRADE AND ECONOMICS II, no. 90 (June 28, 2023): 117–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.34025/2310-8185-2023-2.90.09.
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Developing a model for studying banking operations related to financial risk seems to be very promising. Banks with heterogeneous fundamental funds often face a potential outflow of their creditors. The ability to affect a particular bank depends on the intermediate liquid value of its assets, whereas the latter value endogenously depends on the status of other banks in the asset market. Mathematical modeling of economic risks forms an idea of the peculiarities of modern economic risks, including financial ones. The study of various ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING Issue IІ (90), 2023 119 aspects of financial risk is one of the fundamental concepts of modern economic theory and management, as well as is increasingly being applied in practice in all areas of economic activity. Obviously, it is not necessary to use experience and intuition in economic activity. However, it is essential to possess the information about the causes of risk situations and to carry out qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. The purpose of the article is to develop a mathematical model of immunizing a portfolio of financial transactions and to study the immunization of a portfolio of financial payment obligations regarding the risk of changes in market interest rates. The article identifies the basic typical models of investment portfolios and studies the methods of portfolio optimization, using different types of financial instruments. Initially, it is necessary to study the net present value of payments (NVP), for which the NVP formula is introduced. Next, the main factor of change in the yield curve should be taken into account - a parallel shift by the value of h (NPV(h)) so that NPV(h)- NPV(0) is minimal, using a more complex deformation of the yield curve. To mitigate this risk, it is important to apply factor immunization, however, with a due regard to the three factors that describe almost all changes in structural interest rates. All studies are formulated in the form optimization problems. To protect a portfolio from market risk, its structure needs to be rebuilt. Therefore, the possible volatility and liquidity risks for the existing portfolio of financial liabilities have to be taken into consideration as well.
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Shah, Ghulam Mustafa, Umer Farooq, Zunaira Shabbir, Jianbin Guo, Renjie Dong, Hafiz Faiq Bakhat, Muhammad Wakeel, Ayesha Siddique, and Naeem Shahid. "Impact of Cadmium Contamination on Fertilizer Value and Associated Health Risks in Different Soil Types Following Anaerobic Digestate Application." Toxics 11, no. 12 (December 10, 2023): 1008. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/toxics11121008.
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Cadmium (Cd) contamination in the soil potentially hampers microbial biomass and adversely affects their services such as decomposition and mineralization of organic matter. It can reduce nitrogen (N) metabolism and consequently affect plant growth and physiology. Further, Cd accumulation in plants can pose health risks through vegetable consumption. Here, we investigated consequences of Cd contamination on fertilizer value and associated health risks following the application of biogas residues (BGR) to various soil types. Our results indicate that the application of BGR to all soil types significantly increased dry matter (DM) yield and N uptake. However, the Cd contamination negatively affected DM yield and N recovery from BGR in a dose-dependent manner. Organic N mineralization from BGR also decreased in Cd-contaminated soils. The highest DM yield and N recovery were recorded in sandy soil, whereas the lowest values were observed in clay soil. Cadmium was accumulated in spinach, and health risk index (HRI) associated with its dietary intake revealed that consuming spinach grown in Cd-contaminated soil, with or without BGR, is unsafe. Among the soil types, values of daily intake of metals (DIM) and HRI were lowest in clay soil and highest in sandy soil. However, the application of BGR curtailed HRI across all soil types. Notably, the application of BGR alone resulted in HRI values < 1, which are under the safe limit. We conclude that soil contamination with Cd reduces fertilizer value and entails implications for human health. However, the application of BGR to the soil can decrease Cd effects.
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Zairis, George, and Antonios Zairis. "The Role of Macroeconomic Variables in Sovereign Risk." Issues in Economics and Business 6, no. 1 (January 10, 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ieb.v6i1.16221.
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The sovereign debt market has gathered a lot of attention post the global financial recession therefore it is very important to study how the countries of the eurozone countries can be shielded from all internal and external risks. This can be achieved by examining the macroeconomic determinants of the sovereign risk. Based on the results of the panel regression, it becomes evident which financial indicators are contributing to the sovereign risk. In terms of the stochastic properties, when homogeneity is assumed among the cross-sectional units, all the variables appeared to be level stationary except for the total government bond yield. However, when heterogeneity is assumed among the countries, variables such total government bond yield, GDS as a percentage of GDP, total credit to private sector, employment as a ratio to total GDP, and bank credit are level none stationary. Consequently, these findings will help identify the variables that can be used to approximate the movement of the government bond yield.
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Hadad, Yossi, and Baruch Keren. "Risk–Response Budgeting: A Financial Optimization Approach to Project Risk Management." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 18, no. 3 (March 18, 2025): 160. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18030160.
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Projects are exposed to risks that may hinder their success regarding cost, schedule, and quality/content. After identifying these risks, the project manager must select a subset for mitigation, constrained by a limited risk response budget. The problem lies in the uncertainties surrounding risk realization, their impact on the project’s parameters, and the outcomes of the risk response plan. This paper proposes a method for allocating the risk–response budget to mitigate project risks. The method begins with a Monte Carlo simulation to assess each risk’s impact and residual impact post-mitigation. These simulation results are the input for mathematical programming calculations, determining the optimal budget allocation among the risks based on various objective functions (e.g., maximizing expected net savings or minimizing variance). Each objective function can yield a different optimal budget allocation, so the final step involves weighing all results to make a conclusive decision. A case study illustrates the proposed method.
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Pulkrábek, J., M. Kavka, V. Rataj, J. Humpál, L. Nozdrovický, Z. Trávníček, and V. Pačuta. " The assessment of the economic risks level of sugar beet growing for the farm economy." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 58, No. 1 (January 17, 2012): 41–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/111/2010-agricecon.
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The risk rate of sugar beet growing was analyzed by using the algorithm for modelling and generating the random numbers based on the conditions determined in advance and the statistical distribution of sugar beets yield, the total costs, earnings and gross profit. On the bases of results of the analysis of economic risks of sugar beet production in years 1995–2009, it follows that the sugar beet growing in all regions is highly risky in the Czech Republic. The subsidy SAPS and TOP-UP per 1 hectare of sugar beet have a positive impact on its economics though not sufficient enough. In practice, it means that it is highly probable that the break-even point will not be achieved and thereby it is highly probable that the fixed costs are not covered and the update of machines is significantly limited. This happens mainly in the marginal regions. If the agricultural companies count on the separate sugar payment, the sugar beet growing is in all regions of the Czech Republic with acceptable risk.
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Montshiwa, Abednico Lopang, and Akio Nagahira. "Impacts of Business Continuity Management (BCM) on Automobile Parts Makers Against Natural Disaster Events." Journal of Disaster Research 10, no. 6 (December 1, 2015): 1091–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2015.p1091.
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Recently, automobile parts manufacturers have faced unprecedented natural disaster challenges in their operations. It is increasingly complicated to prepare for disruptions in this industry owing to both its elaborate and extensive supply chain network and the ever increasing number of natural disaster events around the world. We surveyed the impacts of business continuity management (BCM) on 92 automobile parts markers in disaster-prone regions (Asia and North America). The survey revealed that risk-conscious companies reported better business impact analysis (BIA) and supply chain cooperation status than did non-risk conscious companies. Of the companies that were satisfied with their BIA (59%), 40% stated that their business enterprises faced no risks at all. 56% of the 16% that were dissatisfied with their BIA status indicated that their business enterprises faced no risks at all. We also found that majority the of companies with weak supply chain network considered themselves to have no risks at all (58%), compared to 42% of the companies that had good supply chain network. The survey also found that 44% of respondents were satisfied with recovery time capability; similarly, the majority of respondents (54%) were confident that their BCM would yield competitive advantages.
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Chen, Tianwen, Changqing Liu, and Xiang Xu. "Coordination of Perishable Product Supply Chains with a Joint Contract under Yield and Demand Uncertainty." Sustainability 14, no. 19 (October 5, 2022): 12658. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su141912658.
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With the complex and changeable environment, the demand and yield in the perishable products supply chain are usually uncertain. This paper studies a joint contract that combines revenue sharing with quantity discount to coordinate the supply chain under demand and yield uncertainty, which consists of one manufacturer and one retailer. The retailer pays the manufacturer a down payment at the beginning, and the manufacturer gives the retailer a quantity discount and shares a proportion of profit from the retailer at last. To make sure that both members in the supply chain want to adopt this contract, we prove the feasibility of the joint contract achieving a win–win situation. In addition, we investigate how the price in the secondary market influence the contract, and the conclusion further proves that supply chain coordination is actually a process of re-sharing risks among all nodes of the supply chain. However, the joint contract in this paper has certain adaptability to such risks. Finally, numerical analysis is given to show the impacts of uncertainties on the profit of the supply chain, the decisions made by the members, and the effectiveness of our joint contract.
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Weyant, Christopher, Margaret L. Brandeau, and Sanjay Basu. "Personalizing Medical Treatment Decisions: Integrating Meta-analytic Treatment Comparisons with Patient-Specific Risks and Preferences." Medical Decision Making 39, no. 8 (November 2019): 998–1009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0272989x19884927.
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Background. Network meta-analyses (NMAs) that compare treatments for a given condition allow physicians to identify which treatments have higher or lower probabilities of reducing the risks of disease complications or increasing the risks of treatment side effects. Translating these data into personalized treatment plans requires integration of NMA data with patient-specific pretreatment risk estimates and preferences regarding treatment objectives and acceptable risks. Methods. We introduce a modeling framework to integrate data probabilistically from NMAs with data on individualized patient risk estimates for disease outcomes, treatment preferences (such as willingness to incur greater side effects for increased life expectancy), and risk preferences. We illustrate the modeling framework by creating personalized plans for antipsychotic drug treatment and evaluating their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Results. Compared with treating all patients with the drug that yields the greatest quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) on average (amisulpride), personalizing the selection of antipsychotic drugs for schizophrenia patients over the next 5 years would be expected to yield 0.33 QALYs (95% credible interval [crI]: 0.30–0.37) per patient at an incremental cost of $4849/QALY gained (95% crI: dominant–$12,357), versus 0.29 and 0.04 QALYs per patient when accounting for only risks or preferences, respectively, but not both. Limitations. The analysis uses a linear, additive utility function to reflect patient treatment preferences and does not consider potential variations in patient time discounting. Conclusions. Our modeling framework rigorously computes what physicians normally have to do mentally. By integrating 3 key components of personalized medicine—evidence on efficacy, patient risks, and patient preferences—the modeling framework can provide personalized treatment decisions to improve patient health outcomes.
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Hefazi, Mehrdad, Reona Sakemura, Saad S. Kenderian, Mrinal M. Patnaik, William J. Hogan, Mark Litzow, and Hemang Yadav. "Risks and Benefits of Bronchoscopy during the First 100 Days Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation." Blood 134, Supplement_1 (November 13, 2019): 4500. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood-2019-132133.
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BACKGROUND Pulmonary infiltrates are common after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) and can have infectious or non-infectious etiologies. Fiberoptic Bronchoscopy (FOB) with bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) is frequently used to evaluate these patients. However, the diagnostic yield can be highly variable according to patient populations, and the impact on management is not well defined, especially in the era of modern antimicrobial therapies. The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic and therapeutic yield of FOB-BAL in adult patients with pulmonary infiltrates during the first 100 days following HCT. METHODS We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of adult HCT patients who underwent FOB-BAL during the first 100 days post HCT between January 2005 and December 2015 at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN. The interval from HCT to FOB was stratified into early (days 1-30) vs. late (days 31-100). The finding of progressively more hemorrhagic effluent and/or ≥ 20% hemosiderin-laden macrophages in BAL were considered diagnostic for diffuse alveolar hemorrhage (DAH). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fit to identify clinical and transplant characteristics that may impact the diagnostic yield of FOB-BAL. RESULTS A total of 114 patients (median age 55 years), representing 12% of all HCT patients underwent FOB-BAL. Underlying diagnoses were AML in 36%, MDS in 16%, ALL in 16%, MPN in 12% , CLL in 7%, and other in 13%. Transplants were from matched related donor in 43%, matched unrelated donor in 40%, and other donor/matching status in 17%. FOB-BAL was performed during the early period in 61% and during the late period in 39% of patients. In the early period, FOB-BAL provided a specific diagnosis in 49% of patients (30% DAH and 19% infection). In the late period, FOB-BAL had a diagnostic yield of 55% (14% DAH and 36% infection) (Figure 1). The distribution of bacterial and viral infections identified via BAL were similar during the early period (39% and 38%, respectively), whereas more bacterial than viral infections were identified in the later period (56% vs. 19%, respectively) (Figure 2). Non-invasive testing for respiratory tract infection was performed in 34% of patients. These included nasopharyngeal swab for RSV/Influenza PCR in 16% (all negative), multiplex respiratory pathogen PCR in 5% (1 positive for coronavirus), and sputum culture in 21% (positive in 8 patients). This compares with the identification of an infectious pathogen via BAL in 36% of patients; bacterial in 16%, viral in 11%, and fungal in 10%. Transbronchoscopic lung biopsy biopsies were performed in 8 patients and provided diagnostic information in 3 patients (eosinophilic pneumonia, organizing pneumonia and diffuse alveolar damage each in 1 patient). Procedural complications occurred in 3 patients; 2 after transbronchoscopic lung biopsy (1 bleeding and 1 pneumothorax) and 1 during FOB-BAL (atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular rate). In a multivariable logistic regression model, the underlying diagnosis, presence of acute respiratory failure, and early vs. later time period after HCT were independently affecting the diagnostic yield of FOB-BAL, with higher likelihood of DAH being diagnosed in patients with AML/MDS and during the early post-HCT period, and higher likelihood of DAH being diagnosed in patients with acute respiratory failure (Table 1). In 40% of patients, FOB-BAL findings lead to treatment changes. These included addition of antimicrobials in 24% and addition of corticosteroids in 22% (17% DAH, 2% idiopathic pneumonia syndrome, and 1% organizing pneumonia) (Figure 3). FOB findings lead to more antimicrobial modifications in the early than in the later period (32% vs. 18%, respectively). Overall survival was poor in all the three groups, although significantly better in patients with non-diagnostic FOB findings (median of 2, 3, and 11 months in patients with DAH, infection, or non-diagnostic FOB finings, respectively) (p = 0.03) (Figure 4). CONCLUSION FOB-BAL provides clinically useful information in the post-transplant period. BAL findings were diagnostic in 51% of patients, and led to management changes in 40% of patients. Transbronchoscopic lung biopsy is associated with higher rates of procedural complications. Further characterization of the underlying diagnosis in patients with non-diagnostic FOB-BAL findings remains an unmet clinical goal. Disclosures Sakemura: Humanigen: Patents & Royalties. Kenderian:Morphosys: Research Funding; Kite/Gilead: Research Funding; Lentigen: Research Funding; Humanigen: Other: Scientific advisory board , Patents & Royalties, Research Funding; Tolero: Research Funding; Novartis: Patents & Royalties, Research Funding. Patnaik:Stem Line Pharmaceuticals.: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.
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Shikov, Alexander N., Veronika A. Shikova, Anastasiia O. Whaley, Marina A. Burakova, Elena V. Flisyuk, Andrei K. Whaley, Inna I. Terninko, Yulia E. Generalova, Irina V. Gravel, and Olga N. Pozharitskaya. "The Ability of Acid-Based Natural Deep Eutectic Solvents to Co-Extract Elements from the Roots of Glycyrrhiza glabra L. and Associated Health Risks." Molecules 27, no. 22 (November 9, 2022): 7690. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/molecules27227690.
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The roots of licorice (Glycyrrhiza glabra L.) have been widely used in traditional and officinal medicines for the treatment of different diseases. Natural deep eutectic solvents (NADES) have become popular for the extraction of active principles from medicinal plants. However, the ability of NADES to co-extract trace elements during the isolation of target active compounds is rarely investigated. The aim of this study was to analyze the content of trace elements in acid-based NADES extracts from the roots of G. glabra and the health risks associated with them. In this study, we have tested for the first time the ability of several acid-based NADES to co-extract glycyrrhizic acid (GA) and trace elements from the roots of G. glabra. GA has been identified as the dominant phytochemical in G. glabra NADES extracts (0.145–0.495 mg/g). Due to the close pKa of lactic acid and GA, the yield of GA in lactic acid-based NADES was higher in comparison with other tested NADES. The yield of GA in NADES3-NADES5 was statistically significant and surpassed the yield of GA in water. The recovery of all elements (except Li) by all tested NADES was low (less than 6%). According to an ANOVA test, the hydrogen bond donor type plays a decisive role in the extraction of elements. A strong positive correlation between the recovery of GA and MPI was noted. The metal pollution index, hazard quotient, hazard index, and chronic daily intake were calculated and suggest that all tested NADES extracts of G. glabra roots were nontoxic and possess no health risk for both ingestion and topical application.
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Shock, C. C., E. B. G. Feibert, and L. D. Saunders. "Potato Yield and Quality Response to Deficit Irrigation." HortScience 33, no. 4 (July 1998): 655–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.33.4.655.
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Four potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) varieties were grown under four season-long sprinkler irrigation treatments in three successive years (1992-94) on silt loam soil in eastern Oregon. The check treatment was irrigated when soil water potential (SWP) at the 0.2-m depth reached -60 J·kg-1 and received at most the accumulated evapotranspiration (Etc) to avoid exceeding the water-holding capacity of the top 0.3 m of soil. The three deficit irrigation treatments were irrigated when SWP at the 0.2-m depth reached -80 J·kg-1 and had the following percent of the accumulated Etc applied at each irrigation: 1) 100%, 2) 70%, and 3) 70% during tuber bulking with 50% thereafter. Based on regression of applied water over 3 years, potatoes lost both total and U.S. No. 1 yields when irrigations were reduced. Based on regression on applied water, when irrigation was reduced gross revenues declined more than production costs, resulting in a reduction in profits. Leaching potential, as determined by the SWP treatments, was low for all treatments. The results of the study suggest that deficit irrigation of potatoes in the Treasure Valley of Oregon would not be a viable management tool, because the small financial benefits would not offset the high risks of reduced yields and profits from the reduced water applications.
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Lykhovyd, Pavlo. "Remote sensing data for drought stress and croplands productivity assessment in Kherson region." 59, no. 59 (December 1, 2023): 166–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2023-59-12.
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Formulation of the problem. Remote sensing data might be used for indirect assessment of croplands conditions and drought stress through the calculation of specific vegetation indices, such as vegetation health index (VHI), agriculture stress index (ASI), and drought intensity or weighted mean vegetation health index (WMVHI). However, the accuracy of these indices is not clear for some territories. For example, the South of Ukraine is a zone of risky agriculture, because of low natural moisture supply and high evapotranspiration. Moisture supply is the main limiting factor for sustainable crop production in this region. The goals of this study were: 1) to assess the reliability of the mentioned vegetation indices in drought assessment through the direct comparison with the UNEP aridity index; 2) to find out whether remote sensing drought indicators could be used for the yield prediction of major crops on the regional scale. Methods. The study was conducted for Kherson region of Ukraine, as it is one of the most arid regions of the country with very high drought risks. The data on average weighted annual VHI, ASI, and WMVHI for the period 1984-2022 (Season 1) were collected and generalized from the FAO Earth Observation services. UNEP aridity index was calculated using the data from Kherson regional hydrometeorological center. Correlation and linear regression analysis were performed using common statistical methodology. Results. As a result, it was found that 1) all the studied remote sensing drought indicators demonstrate poor correlation with the aridity index, therefore, they should not be used to determine meteorological drought in the region; 2) all the studied remote sensing indices, especially VHI, demonstrate moderate-to-strong correlation with the yields of certain crops, cultivated in Kherson region (R=0.54-0.86), and could be used for the yield prediction; 3) the aridity index have poor relation to the yields of major crops, cultivated in the studied area; 4) VHI-based linear regression models for the crops’ yields prediction are reliable and reasonable for scientific and practical use just for cereal crops, and are much less accurate for grain corn and sunflower; 5) based on the study findings, it could be concluded that aridity index provides pure climatological characteristics of the region, while the studied vegetation indices are mainly focused on the level of drought stress that impacts crops during the growing season. Scientific novelty and practical significance. The article provides novel insights on the implementation of remote sensing data in drought risks assessment in crop production, and their utilization for the purpose of croplands productivity prediction. The study has theoretical and practical importance for current agriculture, and the findings could be used both in scientific, educational, and practical purposes.
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Carberry, PS, PS Carberry, RC Muchow, RC Muchow, RL McCown, and RL McCown. "A simulation model of kenaf for assisting fibre industry planning in northern Australia. IV. Analysis of climatic risk." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 44, no. 4 (1993): 713. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ar9930713.
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The establishment of a pulp and paper industry based on kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus L.) in semi-arid northern Australia requires clear demonstration of the long-term production potential of kenaf in this region. Owing to the high rainfall variability both within and among seasons, it would be difficult to assess the potential of a new dryland industry from traditional experimentation. Accordingly, this study was undertaken to assess the climatic risks to dryland kenaf production in the Northern Territory (NT) using the kenaf simulation model NTKENAF, which has been developed and validated for this climatic zone. The kenaf model was run, using long-term historical weather data, to determine optimal sowing strategies and expected yields at four representative sites in the NT. In the NT, a codict existed between sowing early, with resulting long duration and high yield potential, but high probability of plant mortality, and sowing later, with more reliable plant population, but shorter duration and lower yields. A general recommendation over all sites was for a sowing window extending from the start of November to mid-December each year; lower yields were simulated for earlier sowing dates due to problems with crop establishment, and for later sowing dates due to crop growth extending past the end of the wet season in most years. However, in circumstances of high rainfall prior to November, there was a yield advantage at several sites from sowing early. Over the 100 years of climatic data for Katherine (14� 28'S.) and sowing when 30 mm rainfall occurred in a 5-day period after 1 November, simulated stem yields for kenaf ranged from 800 to 17200 kg ha-1, with a mean stem yield of 8673 kg ha-1 and coefficient of variation of 42%. At the higher rainfall site of Douglas Daly (13� 48'S.), over 21 seasons and using the same sowing criterion, stem yields ranged from 4490 to 19 200 kg ha-1, with a mean stem yield of 12 509 kg ha-1 and coefficient of variation of 27%. Simulated stem yields were higher at the wettest site of Adelaide River (13� 06'S.) and lowest at the driest site of Larrimah (15� 36'S.). In the planning of a potential kenaf industry in the northern Australia, this research study has provided the essential information of yield probability distributions for kenaf crops grown at selected sites in the NT.
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Gröhn, Yrjö T., Julia A. Hertl, and Jane L. Harman. "Effect of early lactation milk yield on reproductive disorders in dairy cows." American Journal of Veterinary Research 55, no. 11 (November 1, 1994): 1521–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.2460/ajvr.1994.55.11.1521.
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Summary Association between individual cumulative milk yield and various reproductive disorders in 56,772 Finnish Ayrshire cows belonging to 5,912 herds in 80 communities was studied. All cows delivered calves between September 1985 and September 1986. Five logistic regression models were fitted, 1 for each outcome disorder of interest: early metritis, late metritis, silent heat, ovarian cyst, and other infertility. Cumulative individual 37-day milk yield was used in the early metritis model, and cumulative individual 60-day milk yield was used in the other models, on the basis of median days in milk when these disorders developed. Cumulative 305 - day herd milk yield, parity, calving season, presence or absence of other disorders, and community were also included in the models. Point estimates from the models represented odds ratios for the likelihood of having the outcome disorder. Lactational incidence risks for the 5 reproductive disorders studied were: early metritis (2.4%), late metritis (1.1 %), silent heat (5.4%), ovarian cyst (6.6 %), and other infertility (2.1 %). The risk of early metritis decreased with increasing 37-day milk yield. The risk of silent heat, ovarian cyst, and other infertility increased with increasing 60-day milk yield; 60-day milk yield had no effect on late metritis. The 305-day herd milk yield increased the risk of early metritis, ovarian cyst, and other infertility; it had no effect on late metritis or silent heat. Parity had an effect on all disorders, except late metritis. Cows that delivered calves during the colder, darker seasons of the year had a higher risk of reproductive disorders than did those that delivered calves at other times of the year. A number of other disorders, reproductive and otherwise, were significant predictors of development of the outcome disorders.
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Chenchik, Ya V. "How to Estimate the Impact of an Issuer’s ESG Risk on the Yield of its Bonds." Issues of Risk Analysis 19, no. 3 (June 30, 2022): 86–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-3-86-100.
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All over the world, the ESG agenda is receiving more and more attention from the leadership of countries, international organizations and companies. These trends can be reflected both in the operating activities of companies and in the way they raise funds in financial markets, as well as in the pricing of financing instruments such as bonds. The subject of the study is the yield of circulating bonds of issuers with a credit rating, as well as ESG risk expressed by the ESG rating assigned to the issuer. The aim of the study is to develop the author’s theoretical and methodological approach to modeling the pricing of bonds and calculating their yield to maturity, which, in addition to generally accepted factors, also takes into account the issuer’s ESG risks. The methodological base of the study includes the analysis and comparison of the yield to maturity of bonds of corporate borrowers against the zero-coupon yield curve of federal loan bonds, ratings of rating agencies regarding the creditworthiness of issuers and their ESG risks. The author uses the total risk premium approach and evaluates the risk premium for investing in the issuer’s bonds as the sum of premiums for certain types of risks. At the same time, the author proposes an author’s modification of this approach in order to take into account the grade of the issuer’s ESG rating in the risk premium of its bonds and, accordingly, their yield to maturity, which is the scientific novelty and relevance of this work. Based on the performed mathematical modeling, the obtained results demonstrate that investors differently evaluate the required yield to maturity for an asset, depending on the grade of the issuing company’s ESG rating. In addition to describing the observed non-linear relationship between the factors that characterize the company, its bond issues and the return required by investors, modeling makes it possible to conclude that in the current realities, the investment idea to invest in Russian companies that follow the concept of sustainable development is conservative. Following sustainable development strategies by a larger number of companies from different industries and regions, together with the development of regulation, will lead to the further development of the green finance market in Russia and the world, and an increase in the coverage of companies by rating agencies. This will provide the author’s approach with development prospects, in particular, the modeling will be enriched with a large amount of input data, it will take into account a larger number of companies and their bond issues, and the possibility of adding new factors to the model will be studied.
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Hilmola, Olli-Pekka. "Inflation and Hyperinflation Countries in 2018–2020: Risks of Different Assets and Foreign Trade." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 12 (December 20, 2021): 618. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120618.
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Since the global financial crisis (2008–2009), central banks and governments in developed countries have relied upon loose monetary and financial policy. In the coronavirus pandemic era, these policies were taken even more to the extreme. In 2021, countries around the world started to experience product availability issues, and inflation in some cases was extremely high. There has been debate about the possibility of persistent high inflation. However, risks to assets and foreign trade in this new situation are unknown as all important hyperinflation cases are from decades to century-old. It is important to know what kind of implications high inflation has on modern economies. Therefore, in this study, 10 countries with the highest inflation were selected to be examined in the period of 2018–2020. In these countries, currencies lost a considerable amount of their value against US dollar in 2018–2020. Stock market indexes in many cases provided very high returns in local currency terms; however, against the US dollar, the index yield changed for the substantially negative. Apartment prices in general declined as well. In foreign trade, imports generally declined, while exports were mixed or even increased. However, it should be noted that all of these observations are influenced by the pandemic era and special circumstances of a particular country.
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Hidayat, Syarif, and Dyah Ayu Suliandar. "Agen Based Modeling for Corn Supply Chain Risks Identification and Sales Negotiation in PTPN VIII." Jurnal METRIS 21, no. 01 (April 1, 2020): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.25170/metris.v21i01.2427.
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PTPN VIII is a state-owned company in West Java cultivating several kinds of commodities, and still have three marginal farmlands with a total size of 3000 hectares open for investment for corn. The type of corn that would be produced is corn feed for poultry needs. Three agents are involved in this agent-based model: the farmers (or cooperatives), PTPN VIII, and the buyers of the corn yields. All agents face risks in doing their businesses which hamper or reduce their probability of achieving their business goals. The potential risks are identified using fuzzy reasoning method. The three blocks of farmland have different levels of fertility. Farmers are expected to compete for the hunt of farmland to rent for cultivating corns, until their funds run out. They must prepare the land, procure their best corn seeds, plant and maintain the crops, and eventually harvest, dry and sell their corn yield. The dryness of the corn grains dictates the selling price. The buyers will buy the corns until their demands are fulfilled for the particular season. There will be a negotiation process between agents to reach an agreement. Each agent seeks to achieve its goal. This is why agent-based modelling is employed. Netlogo software is used to develop the model. Based on fuzzy reasoning method the obtained result shows that the most potential risk is quality risk. The negotiation results show that when both buyer and seller experience heightened degree of risk appetite, the shortest negotiations are achieved.
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Rybashlykova, Ludmila, and Marina Vlasenko. "Pyrogenic factor and its role in the development of desert-dry steppe vegetation: environmental risks for pasture ecosystems." Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories 16, no. 3 (September 30, 2024): 873–94. https://doi.org/10.21177/1998-4502-2024-16-3-873-894.
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Introduction. The impact of fires on local changes in plant communities is an urgent environmental problem in many regions of the world. The scientific novelty of the research is confirmed by the fact that analyzing the phytocenoses reaction to pyrogenic effects is important due to the fact that vegetation is the basis of the native animals habitat and their food resources, as well as ecosystem processes. The purpose of the work is to assess the environmental risks of reducing productivity as well as forecast the recovery time of desert - dry - steppe pasture phytocenoses under the influence of a pyrogenic factor. Materials and methods. Patterns of post - pyrogenic successions of vegetation cover were revealed over the period 2021-2024 in areas exposed to fires in 2020. Research methods included field geobotanical descriptions and data analysis using Microsoft Excel, STATGRAPHICS+5.0 software. Statistical indicators of yield dynamics were calculated for each type of pasture and various soil conditions using an adapted data series analysis technique during the studying of the time aspect of the phenomenon. A cluster analysis based on the “nearest neighbor” principle was carried out using an agglomerative hierarchical classification algorithm. Results and discussion. Fires are a powerful factor affecting vegetation and soil, leading to the transformation of natural ecosystems. On average, over 4 years, the yield of background formations on sandy soils reached 0.80-1.06 t/ha, on loamy soils - 0.81-1.01 t/ha. The yield of pyrogenic formations on sandy soils did not exceed 0.57-0.85 t/ha, on loamy soils - 0.56-0.64 t/ha. There is an increase in the average rate of growth of pyrogenic formations yield, especially: breadbasket - white - wormwood - prutnyak on brown sandy loam soils (98%), white - wormwood - Breadbasket on brown sandy loam soils (43.4%), feather grass on brown loamy soils (46.7%), feather grass (Stipa capillata) on brown sandy loam soils (45.1%). Conclusion. In the year of the summer - autumn fires, aeolian processes are intensifying, species diversity and projective cover of the grass stand sharply is decreasing. An aerotope is formed according to the surface type of filling, and the loss of Artemisia lercheana reduces the productivity of autumn - winter and early spring pastures. From the second year after the fire, the average yield growth rate of all pasture grasses increases significantly, the percentage participation of Stipa, Agropyron, Festuca valesiaca, Bassia prostrata, Koeleria macrantha, Carex stenophylla, Tanacetum millefolium, Galatella villosa, Calamagrostis epigeios increases in the composition of communities. The natural restoration of the herbage gross yield and the projective cover on the burned areas till the background level does not occur earlier than 3, 4 years after the fire. Suggestions for practical application and direction of future research. Understanding the response of plant communities to fire makes it possible to develop effective strategies for the restoration and stabilization of pyrogenic formations in order to increase the supply of nutrients to the soil and improve its hydrological function. The results of the research can be useful in the use and restoration of fire - affected areas for using them as pastures.
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Xie, Ting, Mengjie Hao, Qingyu Wang, Bowen Wu, Zhenguo Zhang, Baoping Zhao, Yufang Shao, and Meiying Liu. "Foliar Application of Manganese-Zinc Fertilizer Mitigated the Harmful Effects of Cadmium on Wheat and Reduced Human Health Risks." Sustainability 17, no. 7 (March 30, 2025): 3058. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17073058.
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In recent years, the problem of Cd (cadmium) contamination in cultivated soils has grown worse, endangering food security and human health and impeding agricultural sustainability. The application of foliar fertilizer can effectively prevent and control the accumulation of Cd in crops, but the related effects of foliar fertilizer application on the accumulation of Cd in wheat and the risk to human health are not clear. On the Cd-polluted farmland, five foliar fertilizers (multi-element compound fertilizer (Me), manganese-zinc micro-fertilizer (MZ), sodium dihydrogen phosphate (P), water-soluble organic fertilizer (WO) and foliar silicon fertilizer (Si)) and CK (the fresh water was used as the control) were sprayed on wheat at different growth periods (spraying once at the tillering stage and spraying twice at the tillering stage and the booting stage) to investigate the effects of foliar fertilizer on wheat yield and the content of Cd in grains and human health risks. The results showed that the application of five types of foliar fertilizers can lead to an increase in wheat yield, an inhibition of the transfer of cadmium to the edible parts of wheat, and a reduction in the human health risk (THQ). Compared with the CK (the fresh water was used as the control), the impact of Cd stress on the yield of spring wheat was alleviated by the MZ treatment, and the largest yield increase of 24.2% was achieved when MZ was sprayed once. When compared with one application, two applications of foliar fertilizers were shown to effectively reduce the content of Cd in the leaves, glumes, and grains of wheat, while increasing the content of Cd in the roots and stems. Among all foliar fertilizers, the cadmium content in wheat grains was most effectively decreased using MZ2 (spraying twice at the tillering stage and the booting stage), with a reduction of 36.6%. At the same time, the target hazard coefficient (THQ) of foliar spraying was reduced, and using two bouts of foliar fertilizer spraying was more effective in reducing the health risks. In conclusion, MZ fertilizer sprayed twice was a desirable choice for wheat, which was conducive to the safe production of wheat on Cd-contaminated farmland and for contributing to the sustainable development of agriculture.
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Capo, Luca, and Massimo Blandino. "Minimizing Yield Losses and Sanitary Risks through an Appropriate Combination of Fungicide Seed and Foliar Treatments on Wheat in Different Production Situations." Agronomy 11, no. 4 (April 9, 2021): 725. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11040725.
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Among the fungal diseases that affect wheat in temperate growing areas, Septoria Leaf Blotch (SLB) and Fusarium head blight (FHB) result in yield and sanitary risk losses that could be minimized through appropriate fungicide applications. Furthermore, the request from policy makers and the food market to reduce the use of chemical pesticides in agriculture has driven research in the direction of performant defense strategies with a reduced spraying of pesticides. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of different fungicide programs on the control of SLB and FHB, as well as on the grain yield and deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination of common wheat. Field experiments were carried out in 2016 and 2017 in North Italy. Two seed treatments (conventional vs. systemic) and four combinations of foliar fungicide applications (untreated control, application at the end of stem elongation, at flowering, and a double treatment at stem elongation and flowering) have been compared, according to a full factorial design, under two agronomic conditions: plowing vs. minimum tillage. Foliar sprayings at the end of stem elongation were found to be more effective in controlling SLB, while a triazole application at flowering was found to be an essential practice to reduce the FHB and DON contents. The double foliar treatment led to significant benefits, albeit only in the production situations with the highest SLB severity (e.g., in the 2017 experiment, after ploughing and the use of a conventional seed treatment). The systemic seed dressing led to a higher and prolonged STB protection, with significant canopy greenness during ripening in all the production situations. In 2017, which suffered from high disease pressure, the seed treatment with systemic fungicide led to a significant increase in grain yield (+5%), compared to the conventional one. The combination of the systemic seed treatment and the triazole application at flowering guaranteed the highest control of both SLB and FHB, maximized grain yield, and minimized DON contamination. This study provides useful information that could be used to evaluate appropriate fungicide programs, based on a combination of seed and foliar treatments, for wheat yield and sanity in distinct SLB and FHB diseases pressure scenarios.
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Dean, Ashley N., Shelby Pritchard, John C. Tyndall, Erin W. Hodgson, and Matthew E. O’Neal. "Evaluating Soybean Aphid-Resistant Varieties in Different Environments to Estimate Financial Outcomes." Journal of Economic Entomology 113, no. 2 (November 21, 2019): 940–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jee/toz309.
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Abstract Farmers face many choices when selecting seed for soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) production, including highly desired herbicide tolerance traits. Despite the convenience of herbicide tolerance, resistant weeds and technology fees may reduce utility and profitability of these varieties, especially when commodity prices are low. Sporadic outbreaks of soybean aphid (Aphis glycines Matsumura, Hemiptera: Aphididae) that require insecticide use for optimal yield can be a further complication for farmers in Iowa. Soybean aphid-resistant varieties are commercially available, but in limited genetic backgrounds without herbicide tolerance. We hypothesized yield and value of resistance traits will vary based on the environment. We established plots at two locations with different risks of soybean aphid outbreaks and used two planting dates at each location to mimic different yield environments. In 2016 and 2017, we planted four varieties that varied in their susceptibility to soybean aphids and glyphosate, and applied insecticides if aphid populations reached an economic threshold. Regardless of genetic background, aphid-resistant varieties prevented populations from reaching the economic threshold at all environments. We observed no significant difference in yield between resistant and susceptible varieties, revealing this trait is as effective at protecting yield as an insecticide application on susceptible varieties at the high-risk location. We also explored the value of each variety in different environments. Resistant varieties produced greater potential net revenue than susceptible varieties at the high-risk location, while the opposite occurred at the low-risk location. Resistant varieties with herbicide tolerance, if made available, would be the most valuable across all environments.
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Xu, Hu, Andong Cai, Xueyun Yang, Shulan Zhang, Shaomin Huang, Boren Wang, Ping Zhu, et al. "Long-Term Organic Substitution Promotes Carbon and Nitrogen Sequestration and Benefit Crop Production in Upland Field." Agronomy 13, no. 9 (September 13, 2023): 2381. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13092381.
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Partial substitution of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer with manure (organic substitution) is highly recommended to minimize environmental risks without compromising crop productivity in intensive agricultural systems. However, our understanding of the effect of organic substitution on soil organic carbon (OC) and total nitrogen (TN) in deep soil and its impact on crop productivity remains limited. Here we investigated OC and TN changes in soil profile down to 100 cm, crop yield, and sustainable yield index under synthetic nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium fertilizers (NPK), NPK plus straw (NPKS), and organic substitution (NPKM) treatments over two decades in four upland fields across different climate zones. Compared with the initial values, two decades of NPKM treatment significantly (p < 0.05) increased OC and TN stocks in either topsoil (by 25.6–103.8 and 15.8–89.8%) or deep soil (by 2.9–71.3 and 5.7–36.9%), respectively, across all sites. The increases in OC and TN stocks in 0–100 cm soil receiving NPKM were significantly higher than those receiving NPK at all sites and NPKS at three high-evaporation sites. Compared with NPKS and NPK treatments, crop yield and N uptake were significantly increased under NPKM treatment only at the Qiyang site. Furthermore, OC sequestration in the entire soil profile down to 100 cm and TN accumulation in topsoil exhibited significant positive correlations with crop N uptake, relative crop yield, and sustainable yield index. In conclusion, long-term partial substitution of synthetic N fertilizer with manure facilitates soil OC and TN sequestration in the entire 100 cm profile and thus maintains high crop productivity in upland areas.
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Larkin, Nigel, and Jana Horak. "Still potentially deadly after all these years: how to safely handle and display radioactive dinosaurs and other fossils." Geological Curator 11, no. 8 (December 2023): 550–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.55468/gc1470.
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Most curators and collection managers responsible for a geological collection will be aware of the risk posed by rocks and minerals which emit ionising radiation and will have put measures in place to reduce this risk to collection users. However, fewer people are aware that fossils, ranging from fish to dinosaurs, and even coprolites can be radioactive too. A fossil may be radioactive if it has been exposed to uranium-bearing fluids during diagenesis and fossilisation processes. Any uranium-enriched groundwater moving through nearby porous deposit can contaminate the rocks and fossils with radioactive elements. Over time the skeletons or other remains being fossilised incorporate these elements into their min- eral structure, such that the concentration of radioactive elements in fossils may be greater than that in the host rock. The greater the volume of fossil material, e.g. a large dinosaur bone, the greater the potential for higher levels of radioactivity, and a greater risk to hu- mans (although some small specimens can be highly radioactive). Whilst most radioactive fossils may not present a danger to health through direct absorption of radiation, unless there is prolonged exposure at close quarters (e.g. hundreds of hours), a risk is posed by the ingestion or inhalation of small radioactive particles derived from the specimen. Here, we describe what measures can be taken to reduce these risks and also provide a list of locations around the world known to yield radioactive fossils, which we hope can be augmented by others. The general principles discussed here are widely applicable, but it is recommended that specialist advice is sought to comply with national regulations in each instance. In ad- dition to the health risks posed by these specimens, there are also legal penalties for failing to comply with regulations.
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BERRY, P. M., J. H. SPINK, A. P. GAY, and J. CRAIGON. "A comparison of root and stem lodging risks among winter wheat cultivars." Journal of Agricultural Science 141, no. 2 (September 2003): 191–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002185960300354x.
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Plant characters that determine stem and root lodging were measured on 15 winter wheat cultivars at three UK sites between 2000 and 2002. A model of lodging was used to estimate stem failure wind speeds (resistance to stem lodging) and anchorage failure wind speeds (resistance to root lodging). The degree and type of natural lodging was also recorded in the plots and this correlated well with the stem and anchorage failure wind speeds. Only a weak correlation (R2=0·33) was observed between the stem and anchorage failure wind speeds for the 15 cultivars. This can be explained by the absence of genetic correlation between the plant characters that determine the stem and anchorage strength. There was a significant interaction between type of lodging (stem or root) and cultivar for failure wind speed (P<0·001). This showed that the difference between the resistances for root and stem lodging was not the same for all cultivars. Separate classifications for the stem and root lodging resistance of cultivars are developed that would allow the most appropriate crop management to reduce the risk of both types of lodging. Significant differences were found between cultivars for all lodging-related plant characters (P<0·05). These resulted in the cultivar range of the anchorage failure moment to be 110% of the overall mean. Stem failure moment, shoot and plant base bending moments had ranges of 37–49% of their overall means. Breeders should select for wide, deep root plates and wide stems with a high stem wall failure yield stress for the greatest improvement in lodging resistance.
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Escobedo-Monge, María Antonieta, Santiago Aparicio, Marlene Fabiola Escobedo-Monge, and José Manuel Marugán-Miguelsanz. "Long-Term Effects of the Application of Urban Waste Compost and Other Organic Amendments on Solanum tuberosum L." Agronomy 10, no. 10 (October 15, 2020): 1575. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10101575.
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Background: In a Mediterranean agrosystem of low productivity, a study was carried out on the effects of municipal solid waste compost (MSWC) compared to other organic and inorganic amendments on the production, quality and yield of three potato varieties (Solanum tuberosum L.) and an advanced clone. Method: Simultaneously, the agronomic and nutritional parameters of the potato crop, the degree of bioavailability and the possible risks of heavy metal contamination were studied. Results: Two stages are observed in the yield and content of macro, micronutrients and heavy metals. The addition of all amendments and especially that of urban waste compost increased potato production and the content of macronutrients, micronutrients and heavy metals in the soils of all varieties, showing a progressive accumulation in tubers. Nevertheless, the performance is not maintained over time with a notable decrease during the second stage of its application. Conclusion: Highlighting the potato clone A7677 not only in its performance but also in the concentration of iron, zinc, copper, essential micronutrients for human consumption and especially for populations deficient in these trace elements.
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Fischbach, Wolfgang. "Vorsorgeuntersuchungen und Check-ups in der Gastroenterologie." DMW - Deutsche Medizinische Wochenschrift 144, no. 17 (August 2019): 1187–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/a-0758-0579.
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AbstractDiseases of the digestive tract are frequent and many gastroenterological tumors are characterized by a bad prognosis. Lifestyle changes such as normalization of body weight, physical activity, stop smoking or balanced diets can effectively prevent many gastroenterological tumors. Vaccination against hepatitis A and B, as well as eradication of Helicobacter pylori, are highly effective in avoiding liver infection and reducing the risk for gastric cancer respectively. Colorectal cancer screening using immunological stool tests (iFOBT) and colonoscopy has been proven to be the most efficacious tool in tumour screening at all. As compared to established screening tests, check-ups and their benefit are less well defined. In general, they yield to detect health risks, partially overlapping with the goals of prevention and screening. Gastroenterological check-ups include abdominal ultrasound and esophagogastroduodenoscopy offering a wide range of detecting diseases at potential risks like reflux esophagitis and their complications or aortal aneurysma.
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Helmchen, H. "Research with incompetent demented patients. A current problem in light of German history." European Psychiatry 13, S3 (1998): 93s—100s. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0924-9338(98)80039-4.
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SummaryMedical research with incompetent patients which is expected to yield only questionable or no individual benefit (and which is often wrongly equated with non-therapeutic research) remains a difficult and controversial problem. This is reflected in the fact that such research is legally admissible in some countries such as France and England, but is questionable or prohibited in other countries, eg, Germany. Such research can only be justified ethically if the need for it is set forth according to defined criteria, and if defined protective criteria are fulfilled, particularly to ensure that the research-related instrumentalisation of the patient is held in check by observing respect for the patient's dignity, to ensure that research does not involve more than minimal risks and negligible stress for the individual participant, and that the patient's refusal to participate is accepted. A broad international consensus exists with regard to these criteria [9, 21, 26, 41]. But concepts and definitions as to what constitutes benefits and risks, as well as criteria and procedures in weighing benefits against risks, and, not least of all, the weighing of individual benefit against societal benefit, require clarification. The question must also be satisfactorily answered: who is to do the weighing? But above all, it must be ensured by professional education that this process of checks and controls is effectively carried out in day-to-day medical-scientific life.
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Gariglio, N. F., R. A. Pilatti, and B. L. Baldi. "Using Nitrogen Balance to Calculate Fertilization in Strawberries." HortTechnology 10, no. 1 (January 2000): 147–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/horttech.10.1.147.
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In Santa Fe, Argentina, strawberries (Fragari ×ananassa Duch.) are cultivated in the area of Coronda where N fertilization usually exceeds crop requirements. The objective of this work was to test four types of fertilization methodology to optimize fertilizer use efficiency. Experiments were carried out at the horticultural center of the Facultad de Agronomía y Veterinaria, in Esperanza, Santa Fe, 31.15° S latitude, on a typical argiudol soil. `Chandler' was planted 13 Mar. 1996. Nitrogen demand was related to the dry matter production with N content decreasing to increment of biomass (W), soil N mineralization was estimated according to the program EDAFO version 3. Using previous data, a monthly balance was calculated and four treatments were devised: control (T0) = without fertilization; treatment 1 (T1) = N fertilization covering the accumulated monthly deficit, 53 kg·ha-1 (47 lb/acre); treatment 2 (T2) = N fertilization covering the monthly deficit 66 kg·ha-1 (58 lb/acre); treatment 3 (T3) = N fertilization covering the total crop demand 117 kg·ha-1 (104 lb/acre). All N treatments significantly increased yields over the control. Yield increased to increasing N rates from 0 to 53 kg·ha-1. This response was due to an increase in fruit number but not in fruit weight. High N rates promoted runner growth without increasing fruit yield. The use N balance method for strawberry fertilization showed satisfactory results. Accumulated N balance (T1), required the least amount of N fertilizer while producing good yield, thus it should be the method adopted to reduce costs and environmental risks of N fertilization.
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Margolis, Daniel, Dinesh Kumar, Maria Luz Macairan, Ram Narayanan, Shyam Natarajan, Nishant Gandhi, Gregory Shaw, and Leonard S. Marks. "Prostate MRI/ultrasound fusion and biopsy yield." Journal of Clinical Oncology 30, no. 5_suppl (February 10, 2012): 206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2012.30.5_suppl.206.
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206 Background: MRI has been shown useful for identifying targets after negative biopsy. We purport to show the advantage of realtime fusion of MRI data with ultrasound for initial or repeat TRUS biopsy compared with sextant biopsy. Methods: An IRB-approved prospective study of 57 consecutive men with diffusion weighted imaging and dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) perfusion in addition to T2-weighted imaging on a Siemens Magnetom 3.0 T Trio using an external phased array coil had targets chosen based on decreased T2 signal with abnormally restricted diffusion or abnormal DCE by a uroradiologist with 6 years experience in prostate imaging, followed by ultrasound-guided biopsies using MR/ultrasound fusion software (Artemis, Eigen) in addition to standard 12-core sextant biopsies. Results: In 56 patients, 101 suspicious areas were identified by MRI; 28 positive targets were found in 22 men, including 19 Gleason 3+3 (68%), 8 Gleason 3+4 (29%), and one with HGPIN (3%). In 28 patients, neither targets nor systematic cores were positive, and in one patient no targets were identified. Positive cores were found in 12 patients only on targets only including 6 Gleason 3+4. One patient was “upstaged;” the target was Gleason 3+4 whereas the positive systematic cores were Gleason 3+3. In 8 patients the Gleason score of systematic and targeted cores was identical, 2 Gleason 3+4 and 6 Gleason 3+3. In 7 patients systematic cores were Gleason 3+3 with negative targets, all less than 4 mm and less than 25 percent of the core. Fisher exact test showed a trend to significance, p = 0.06 for any cancer identified, and p = 0.03 for Gleason 3+4 disease. Conclusions: The improved accuracy of MRI-TRUS fusion biopsies may be able to replace systematic biopsies, avoiding the discomfort and risks associated, and improve diagnostic yield, and improve confidence for patients with a small amount of low-grade cancer who opt for active surveillance.
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Paida, Yurii, Yaryna Andrushko, and Olena Iliushyk. "MACROECONOMIC RISKS: CLASSIFIED FEATURES, METHODS OF MEASUREMENT, MITIGATION PATTERNS." Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 4, no. 4 (September 2018): 258–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2018-4-4-258-264.
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The article deals with the essence, factors, and patterns of macroeconomic risks mitigation. The purpose of the paper is to summarize and present a classification of systemic risks, to analyse principles and methods of macroeconomic risks evaluation. The methodological basis of the study is general scientific and special methods of cognition. The most extended analysis of systemic risks not only from the perspective of geographical and historical aspects but also in the context of modern economic processes is carried out. Results of the research prove that in the context of formation of a new economy of Ukraine and approval of the practice of timely prevention and mitigation of macroeconomic risks in accordance with imperative of modern time, it is necessary to: 1) give real state priority to the most advanced educational technologies. While providing maximum broad and equal access of youth to education, we should have the program for search and practical support of national intelligence phenomena in place; 2) create conditions for rehabilitation and advanced development of innovative directions of applied and, first and utmost, polytechnic sciences. It is the task of the state to ensure their financial support and direct employment at enterprises. All-round support of introduction of high-yield venture developments into the production; 3) secure efficient state protection of intellectual property, create legislatively the conditions for commercial usage of innovative achievements within the country; 4) encourage with maximum efficiency return of high-level engineers and blue-collar workers to the technological area; breathe new life into the system of professional and technical schools where information and programming professions prevail and which graduators would be engaged with priority into operations in unique productions; 5) create modern information market, allround support of introduction of a unified information field. Learning and striving to satisfy human needs without placing systemic risks on future generation being on the Earth should become the core principle of a civilizational development. Value/originality. We may lay down an essential principle of civilizational regulation of systemic risks when each state, specifically the international community, should set up (subject to all complexities of practical implementation) regulating constants, rules, and bans of such contents and in such direction to have business or entrepreneurial activities carried out ultimately in the risk-related mode, which would cause no detrimental effect on the economy as whole.
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Kiwia, Abednego, David Kimani, Rebbie Harawa, Bashir Jama, and Gudeta W. Sileshi. "Sustainable Intensification with Cereal-Legume Intercropping in Eastern and Southern Africa." Sustainability 11, no. 10 (May 21, 2019): 2891. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11102891.
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Much research has been conducted on cereal-legume intercropping as a sustainable intensification (SI) practice in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA). However, the role of inorganic fertilizers in sustainably intensifying intercropping systems has not been systematically analyzed. Therefore, the objective of the present analysis was to assess the role of inorganic fertilizer use in cereal-pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan) intercropping in terms of SI indicators, namely, yield, production risks, input use efficiency, and economic returns. The data used for this analysis were gathered from over 900 on-farm trials across Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique. All SI indicators assessed showed that intercropping combined with application of small amounts of inorganic fertilizers is superior to unfertilized intercrops. Fertilizer application in the intercropping system improved cereal yields by 71–282% and pigeon pea yields by 32–449%, increased benefit–cost ratios by 10–40%, and reduced variability in cereal yields by 40–56% and pigeonpea yields by 5–52% compared with unfertilized intercrops. Improved yields and reduced variability imply lowering farmers’ risk exposure and improved credit rating, which could enhance access to farm inputs. We conclude that the strategic application of small amounts of inorganic fertilizers is essential for the productivity and economic sustainability of cereal-pigeonpea intercropping under smallholder farming in ESA.
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Smith, Greg S., Francisco Ascui, Anthony P. O’Grady, and Elizabeth Pinkard. "Materiality Assessment of Natural Capital Risks in Australian Forestry." Current Forestry Reports 7, no. 4 (December 2021): 282–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40725-021-00147-6.
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Abstract Purpose of Review Natural capital is a term for the stocks of natural assets (e.g. natural resources and ecosystems) that yield flows of ecosystem services that benefit the economy and human well-being. Forestry is one of the industries with the greatest dependencies on natural capital, as well as having the potential for substantial positive or negative impacts on natural capital. These dependencies and impacts create direct risks to a forestry enterprise’s ongoing financial viability, which translate into indirect risks for investors and society. There are growing demands from a variety of stakeholders for more reliable information to assess such risks, but at present, these risks are not always well understood, assessed or communicated in a consistent and comparable way. This paper addresses this problem by applying a standardized methodology to develop the first systematic, evidence-based review and financial materiality assessment of natural capital risks for the Australian forestry sector. Recent Findings The vast potential scope of forestry impacts and dependencies on natural capital can be reduced to twenty key areas of relevance to Australian forestry, of which only seven to nine have been assessed as highly financially material for each of the sub-sectors of softwood plantations, hardwood plantations and native forestry. The majority of risks assessed as highly financially material are related to dependencies on natural capital. This is in part due to the fact that current regulations and certification schemes focus on managing impacts, but tend to overlook dependencies. Nearly all of the natural capital risks rated as highly material are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Summary An improved understanding of natural capital risks is an important input to better decision-making by forestry enterprises, as well as their lenders and investors, forestry regulators and other relevant stakeholders. This paper contributes to the preparedness of the forestry industry and its stakeholders to address questions about vulnerability to future changes and declining trends in natural capital.