Academic literature on the topic 'Allophones in free variation'

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to report a clinically induced phonemic split (i.e., the restructuring of allophones as distinct phonemes) by presenting longitudinal data from a functionally misarticulating child. For this child, three qualitatively and quantitatively distinct stages were observed relative to the acquisition of the phonemic split: 1. complementary distribution (allophones of the same phoneme); 2. position-specific free variation (intermediate to a phonemic split); and 3. phonemic distinction for some, but not all morphemes (phonemic split).The results of this clinical case study, documenting the nature and development of a phonemic split, have implications for related phenomena in normal language acquisition, second-language learning, and sound change in primary languages.

The phonological analysis of phonemes as segments including consonants and their allophones, consonant clusters, and vowels with their allophones that may work in complementary distribution or in free variation with each other are tackled in this paper beside sounds in context to show how sounds produced in rapid connected speech reveal affection to each other producing utterances colored by assimilation, elision, and intrusion. The paper aims to show the different sub-types of these phonological processes such as coalescent assimilation, syncopic elision, and epenthetic intrusion. The paper is a reprint of an edited chapter of an M.A. thesis entitled '' A Phonological Analysis of Segmental Phonemes in Standard English and Hit Iraqi Arabic '' to be presented in confirming with the requirements for an M.A. degree.

The velar nasal, also called "Engma" or "Angma", can be found in the phonologicalinventories of many languages across the world. Kurdish researchers vary in their opinions as to whether this sound is listed among the inventory of Kurdish language phonemes or not. Some researchers have tackled this case in Sorani Kurdish but research in Badini is scarce in this area. In this paper we aim to investigate the velar nasal /N/ in Badini Kurdish, which is a very controversial topic. The paperaims to answer the question as to whether it can be considered as a phoneme or it is just an allophonic realization of the alveolar nasal /n/ when followed by the voiced velar stop/g/. This is done through providing examples that have the combination of (n+g) which have a possible occurrence of the velar nasal. These examples are first analyzed articulatory in terms of some phonological processes such as assimilation, morpheme affixation, and syllabification. They are then analyzed acoustically by contrasting the pairs and searching for nasal bands using Praat. After analyzing both articulatory and acoustic data, it was concluded that the velar nasal can be found in Badini Kurdish but only as an allophone of the alveolar nasal which is the result of certain phonological rules such as assimilation and co-articulation. They are in free variation and couldn’t change the meaning. So, we can’t consider it as a distinct phoneme in this dialect.

This paper attempts to account for the velar affrication in Najdi Arabic (NA) and its absence in Hijazi Arabic (HA). While NA consistently alters /k/ into [ts], and /ɡ/ into [dz], HA retains the velars and as such is more faithful to standard Arabic. The analysis follows from an Optimality-Theoretic (OT) framework (Prince and Smolensky, 1993) explicating different constraint interactions and introducing new markedness constraints. It is argued that the realizations of the velars as [k] and [ɡ] are in free variation distribution with their allophonic affricate counterparts [ts] and [dz], respectively, although the two variants of the same phoneme alternate under phonologically conditioned contexts.

Most discussions of the Korean liquid phoneme /l/ identify two allophones: a flap, [ɾ], in the onset of syllables, and an alveolar lateral approximant syllable-finally and in geminates. However, some research paints a more complex picture indicating a wide range of interspeaker variation for the precise articulatory realization of these allophones. The present research finds that in regards to the tap and laterals realizations previous descriptions are largely correct. It also affirms through analysis of F2 values that previous findings showing that the Korean lateral is palatalized before high front vocoids are correct. Most importantly, it analyzes F3 values to show that the retroflex variant is particularly prevalent near pauses, suggesting that retroflexion may be a secondary cue to prosodic boundaries.

Abstract This paper presents the first sociophonetic study of Cantonese vowels using sociolinguistic interview data from the Heritage Language Variation and Change in Toronto Corpus. It focuses on four allophones [iː], [ɪk/ɪŋ], [uː], and [ʊk/ʊŋ] of two contrastive vowels /iː/ and /uː/ across two generations of speakers. The F1 and F2 of 30 vowel tokens were analyzed for these four allophones from each of 20 speakers (N = 600 vowel tokens). Results show inter-generational maintenance of allophonic conditioning for /iː/ and /uː/ as well as an interaction between generation and sex such that second-generation female speakers have the most retracted variants of [ɪk/ɪŋ] and the most fronted variants of [iː]. This paper will discuss three possible explanations based on internal motivation, phonetic assimilation, and phonological influence. This will illustrate the importance of multiple comparisons (including inter-generational, cross-linguistic, and cross-community) in the relatively new field of heritage language phonology research.

The aim of the present study involving automatic phonetic classification of /e/ and /u/ tokens in Tol is two-fold: first, I test existing claims about allophonic variation within these vowel classes, and second, I investigate allophonic variation within these vowel classes that has yet to be documented. The acoustic phonetic classifications derived in the present study contribute to a more detailed understanding of the allophonic systems operating within the Tol language. Operationalizing machine learning algorithms to investigate under-resourced, indigenous languages has the potential to provide detailed insights into the acoustic phonetic dynamics of a diverse range of vocalic systems.

In the phonology and morphophonology of Limbu (Tibeto-Burman, Nepal), we find what could be considered as rules of voicing (of stops) and gemination (of stops and nasals). The interpretation of these phenomena leads us to assign an independent role to the syllable boundary as part of the phonological environment conditioning the distribution of allophones.

AbstarctThis article questions the view that phonetics governs exclusively gradient phenomena. Experimental data from an ultrasound study of English flap allophones show unconditioned categorical variation in the production of everyday words. Individual variation is discussed as an essential area of empirical investigation in uncovering emergent categorical properties of language.

<p class="1">How do speakers reconstruct the boundaries of an allophonic system? In our paper, we address this question and examine how speakers organize into consistent groups of allophones the array of /r/-variants that are used in South-Tyrol Italian (STI). In addition, we discuss that this process of grouping is based on two intertwining sources of variation: the linguistic source and the socio-indexical source. We argue that the indexical dimension is not disconnected from the linguistic one, but it contributes in an essential way to its structuring.</p><p class="1">Our investigation is based on a sample of two thousand tokens of /r/. These occurrences are extracted from a corpus that includes the (semi)spontaneous productions of 14 Italian-German bilingual speakers. The analysis concerns the identification of possible relationships among the allophones with respect to (a) distributional, (b) stylistic and (c) biographical factors. Data are analyzed using a multivariate exploratory technique, namely the multiple correspondence analysis approach. The results clearly show how the aggregation of indexical and linguistic factors determines the emergence of two different allophonic subsystems, that is the Italian of Italian-dominant speakers (STI-i) and the Italian of German-dominant speakers (STI-d).</p>

This thesis investigated the realization of the English voiceless post-alveolar affricate and the voiceless post-alveolar fricative in native Panamanian speakers learning English as a second language. The Spanish of Panama has a typical deaffrication process where the post-alveolar affricate phoneme is mostly pronounced as a fricative; as a result, the Spanish affricate has two allophones, the voiceless post-alveolar affricate and the voiceless post-alveolar fricative that occur in free variation in the Spanish of Panama. The word positions tested were word initially and finally only. Thus, the purpose of the study was to determine the dominant sound in the Spanish of Panama, to identify dialectal allophonic transfer from the Spanish of Panama, and to verify the accomplishment of the phonemic split in English through the frequency of usage of the target sounds. Subsequently, in order to exemplify the deaffrication phonological process of Panama, I developed and discussed a Feature Geometry of the Spanish language along with the Underspecified consonants of the Spanish language. In addition, I tested three main theories about acquisition of contrastive target sounds, Markedness, and similarity and dissimilarity of sounds. The results showed that these Panamanian learners of English produced the English voiceless post-alveolar fricative significantly more target appropriately than the English voiceless post-alveolar affricate. This indicates that the dominant sound in the Spanish of Panama is the dialectal allophone, the voiceless post-alveolar fricative, which I suggest may become the default post-alveolar phoneme in the Spanish of Panama. Subsequently, the high frequency of the voiceless post-alveolar fricative also indicates that the participants transferred their Panamanian Spanish dialectal allophone, the voiceless post-alveolar fricative, into English and more importantly, they have not reached the phonemic split for these two English target sounds. Taking the dialectal allophone, the voiceless post-alveolar fricative, as the default post-alveolar phoneme in the Spanish of Panama, The Markedness Differential Hypothesis (Eckman, 1977) accounts for the observed trends described as follows: the learning of the less marked sound (English voiceless post-alveolar fricative) was easier to acquire and the learning of the more marked sound (English voiceless post-alveolar affricate) was difficult to acquire.

The following thesis reports on an investigation of the attitudes of allophone children and their teachers towards different French accents. Using the matched guise technique, a total of 108 children in grades 4, 5 and 6 (5 groups) evaluated samples of French spoken with a standard accent, a standard Quebec accent, an informal Quebec accent and a foreign accent. The pupils evaluated the accents based on eight criteria related to linguistic, professional and personal characteristics. Secondly, sub-groups from each class participated in a post-experimental discussion about the accents they had heard. The children's teachers were also interviewed privately, in order to give their opinions about the accents, and share their vision of an oral model for these allophone children attending French language schools in Montreal. Findings suggest a strong preference for standard accents, which is confirmed by the analysis of the post-experimental discussions.

Generation of electricity, by harnessing tidal currents with turbines, has the potential to contribute to a more sustainable future. However, knowledge of the fluid velocity, at a certain depth, is required in order to predict the available energy resource. Therefore, a modelling framework is described, which is computationally efficient, with only a few tunable parameters, and yields good results in comparison to experimental work and computational fluid dynamics. Existing approximate analysis methods, which describe fluid flow over varying topography are discussed. It is found that these theories are incapable of satisfying our objective. From field measurements of a tidal channel, a model is developed that describes turbulent free-surface flow over varying bathymetry. The flow is modelled using the steady incompressible two- dimensional shallow water equations. Turbulence closure is achieved using the eddy-viscosity model. The equations are solved using spectral methods. Convergence of the method is tested by varying the number of modes and the mixing parameterisation. A comparison with experimental work and a regional scale ocean circulation model, for free-surface flow over a ridge, is made. Close agreement is found using pseudo spectral methods. The Galerkin method does not achieve the same level of accuracy. In addition, numerical instability is found to occur on the downstream face of the ridge. However, provided the bathymetry gradients are sufficiently shallow, the solution procedure performs well. A three-dimensional model is achieved by calculating the two-dimensional depth-averaged flow through a tidal channel. Upon calculation of the streamlines from the depth-averaged flow solution, the vertical structure of the flow is calculated. The full flow profile can be obtained by piecing together outputs from each streamline. This is then compared to a one-dimensional hydraulic model where good agreement is found. Finally, flow for a real channel is computed.

While much work has been done on regional vocal variation in birds, relatively few studies have found evidence of similar variation in mammalian vocalizations. This study quantifies individual, colonial, and regional level variation in T. brasiliensis songs in the southeastern United States. Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) are among a handful of mammals that produce complex, hierarchically structured vocalizations. Their songs are composed of multiple syllables that are combined into three phrases that vary in number and order across renditions. Tadarida brasiliensis songs showed considerable amount of variation, and differed significantly between locations in terms of syllable structure and song syntax. Some of the variation observed was not correlated to geographical distance, and is unlikely to be explained by genetic divergence or differences in habitat use. These results indicate the existence of vocal dialects and a possible role of vocal production learning in dialect formation in this species.

Microorganisms are an indispensable part of our ecosystem, yet the natural metabolic and ecological diversity of these organisms is poorly understood due to a historical reliance of microbiology on laboratory grown cultures. The awareness that this diversity cannot be studied by laboratory isolation, together with recent advances in low cost scalable sequencing technology, have enabled the foundation of culture-independent microbiology, or metagenomics. The study of environmental microbial samples with metagenomics has led to many advances, but a number of technological and methodological challenges still remain. A potentially diverse set of taxa may be represented in anyone environmental sample. Existing tools for representing the genetic composition of such samples sequenced with short-read data, and tools for identifying variation amongst them, are still in their infancy. This thesis makes the case that a new framework based on a joint-genome graph can constitute a powerful tool for representing and manipulating the joint genomes of population samples. I present the development of a collection of methods, called SCRAPS, to construct these efficient graphs in small communities without the availability or bias of a reference genome. A key novelty is that genetic variation is identified from the data structure using a probabilistic algorithm that can provide a measure of the confidence in each call. SCRAPS is first tested on simulated short read data for accuracy and efficiency. At least 95% of non-repetitive small-scale genetic variation with a minor allele read depth greater than 10x is correctly identified; the number false positives per conserved nucleotide is consistently better than 1 part in 333 x 103. SCRAPS is then applied to artificially pooled experimental datasets. As part of this study, SCRAPS is used to identify genetic variation in an epidemiological 11 sample Neisseria meningitidis dataset collected from the African meningitis belt". In total 14,000 sites of genetic variation are identified from 48 million Illumina/Solexa reads. The results clearly show the genetic differences between two waves of infection that has plagued northern Ghana and Burkina Faso.

Thesis (M.S.)--Ohio State University, 2004.
Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xiii, 115 p. ; also includes graphics (some col.). Includes bibliographical references (leaves 104-113). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center.

Understanding the genetic basis of fitness differences has been a major goal for evolutionary biologists over the last two decades. Although there are many studies investigating how natural selection can promote local adaptation, few have succeeded to find the link between genotype and fitness of the phenotype. Polymorphic genes of the major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) are excellent candidates for such associations as they are a central component of the vertebrate immune system, playing an important role in parasite resistance, and hence can have direct effects on survival of their bearers. Although associations between Mhc and disease resistance are frequently documented, the epidemiological basis of the host-parasite interaction is often lacking and few studies have investigated the role that Mhc genes play in individual variation in fitness; thus comparatively little is known about the fitness consequences of Mhc in wild populations. Furthermore, the majority of work to date has involved testing associations between Mhc genotypes and disease. However, the mechanism by which any direct selection on the Mhc acts, depends on how genotypes map to the functional properties of Mhc molecules. The aim of this thesis was to characterize Mhc alleles in terms of their predicted functional properties and to investigate whether and how selection operates on Mhc class I functional variation using the great tit (Parus major) population at Wytham Woods as a model host species. Through a comprehensive characterization effort and the use of 454 pyrosequencing platform, I performed a detailed analysis of genetic variation at Mhc class I exon 3 and grouped alleles with similar antigen-binding affinities into supertypes to classify functionally distinct Mhc types. There was extreme complexity at the Mhc class I of the great tit both in terms of allelic diversity and gene number. A total of 862 alleles were detected from 857 individuals; the highest number yet characterized in a wild bird species. The functional alleles were clustered into 17 supertypes; there was clear evidence that functional alleles were under strong balancing selection. To understand the role of Mhc in disease resistance, I examined the linkage between Mhc supertypes, Plasmodium infection and great tit survival, and showed that certain functional variants of Mhc confer resistance to two divergent Plasmodium parasite species that are common in the environment. I further investigated the fitness consequences of functional variation at Mhc, using mark-recapture methods and long-term breeding data; and tested the hypotheses that selection: (i) maximizes Mhc diversity; (ii) optimizes Mhc diversity, or (iii) favours specific functional variants. I found that the presence of three different supertypes was associated with three different components of individual fitness: adult survival, annual recruitment probabilities and lifetime reproductive success. In contrast, there was no evidence for a selective advantage of Mhc functional diversity, either in terms of maximal or optimal supertype diversity. Finally, I explored the role that Mhc plays in female mate choice decisions and examined the reproductive fitness consequences of Mhc-dependent mating patterns. There was little evidence to suggest that functional dissimilarity at Mhc has any influence on female mate choice decisions or that dissimilarity at Mhc affects the reproductive output of the social pair. Overall, this thesis provides strong support for the suggestion that selection favours specific functional variants of Mhc, possibly as a result of supertype-specific resistance or susceptibility to parasites that exert strong selective pressures on their hosts; whereas there is no support for selection favouring maximal or optimal Mhc diversity. More importantly it demonstrates that functional variants of Mhc class I loci are an important determinant of individual fitness in natural populations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.