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1
Arampamoorthy, Haran. "Analysis of spatial distributions of road accidents." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/4832.
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Traffic accidents result in life and financial loss to the society. In
developing countries traffic fatalities are comparable to other leading
causes of death. The need for the analysis of the spatial distribution of
traffic accidents, as an aid to select the most appropriate type of
accident reduction programme (e.g. site, route and area plans) and
assessing the effectiveness of such plans after implementation, is very
important. The current practice (e.g. visual examination) for assessing
the spatial distribution of accidents is reviewed. In this thesis, various
methods for the statistical analysis of spatial distributions of accidents
(including quadrat and nearest - neighbour methods) are reviewed and
further improvements are described.
Accidents are random events subject to both temporal and spatial
variation. The basic variables for accident analysis are; distance and
direction of accident locations in terms of North and East co-ordinates,
azimuth, and the year of the accident. A new method for analysing the
spatial pattern is proposed, whereby detection of a particular pattern
will indicate which type of accident reduction programme is most
appropriate. The method distinguishes the spatial distribution (point
cluster, line cluster, area cluster or a completely spatially random
distribution) of accidents in different types of road networks (regular or
irregular and dense or sparse). The method can also help assessment of
the changes in spatial distributions of accidents.
2
Naji, Jamil Abdul-Rabb. "Road accident analysis in Yemen : the identification of shortcomings in road accident data, data adjustment, cost and development of road fatality model." Thesis, University of South Wales, 1996. https://pure.southwales.ac.uk/en/studentthesis/road-accident-analysis-in-yemen(8586c669-4709-4b2c-9d83-45003bc5d0bf).html.
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The true extent of the road accident problem in Yemen is questionable. Some agencies and citizens believe that the safety situation in Yemen is very critical while others disagree with this belief. Both sides however, agree that the road accident problem in Yemen is such that it requires considerable attention. Since Yemen has no history in road safety research and since there is no reliable road accident data in the country, making final judgements on the situation is difficult unless supported by adequate research. The aim of the present research is to provide a better understanding of the road accident problem in the Yemen. This can be made by investigation of the real dimensions of the road accident problem. This includes the identification of the shortcomings in road accident data, the cost of road accidents and modelling road accident fatalities.
3
Ayati, Esmail. "Rural road accidents in Iran: analysis, comparison and the cost." Thesis, Aston University, 1988. http://publications.aston.ac.uk/14282/.
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In the general introduction of the road-accident phenomenon inside and outside Iran, the results of previous research-works and international conferences and seminars on road-safety have been reviewed. Also a sample-road between Tehran and Mashad has been investigated as a case-study. Examining the road-accident data and iriformation, first: the information presented in road-accident reportforms in developed countries is discussed and, second: the procedures for road-accident data collection in Iran are investigated in detail. The data supplied by Iran Road-Police Central Statistics Office, is analysed, different rates are computed, due comparisons with other nations are made, and the results are discussed. Also such analysis and comparisons are presented for different provinces of Iran. It is concluded that each province with its own natural, geographical, social and economical characteristics possesses its own reasons for the quality and quantity of road-accidents and therefore must receive its own appropriate remedial solutions. The question~ of "what is the cost of road-accidents" , "why and how evaluate the cost", "what is the appropriate way of approach to such evaluation" are all discussed and then "the cost of road-accidents in Iran" based on two different approaches: "Gross National Output"and"court award" is computed. It is concluded that this cost is about 1.5 per cent of the country's national product. In Appendix 3 an impressive example is given of the trend of costs and benefits that can be attributed to investment in road-safety measures.
4
Odero, Wilson Washington Omole. "Road traffic injuries and alcohol in Eldoret, Kenya : epidemiology and policy analysis." Thesis, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (University of London), 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.251919.
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Sheikh, Mohammad Mizanur Rahman. "A statistical analysis of road traffic accidents and casualties in Bangladesh." Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.506322.
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A statistical analysis was conducted for road traffic accidents and associated casualties in Bangladesh. This was undertaken in order to assist the policymakers to take appropriate steps to be reduced the road traffic accidents and the associated casualties. Secondary data (collecting from Bangladesh government publications) were explored, analysed and modelled statistically. An exploration was undertaken using the averages (per annum) of rates of KSI/ fatal casualty, accident and involved vehicles applying Bar-charts. In addition, annual time series data were investigated using trend lines. A detailed analysis of variances was conducted using the rates (per 10,000 populations) of BRTA traffic accident and casualty data applying mainly non-parametric tests. Time series; one-way and two /three-way classified data are analysed applying linear regression model; Mann-Whitney or Kruskal-Wallis tests and Univariate regression model respectively. Finally, modelling of two/ three-way data was conducted using the frequencies of fatal casualty, fatal accident and involved vehicles applying Poisson regression. The most significant findings from this research were that pedestrians are highly involved in the casualty figures. Fatal hit pedestrian is the main collision type accident. Maximum fatal accidents occur at out of junction. Cities have higher accident and casualty rates than that for non-cities (divisions/ districts, excluding cities). In particular, Rajshahi city and Dhaka city have the highest accident rates. National highways are the main venues of accidents and casualties. Heavy vehicles including buses and trucks are predominantly involved in casualty accident. Implications from this research have been considered and suitable recommendations have been made.
6
Mollet, C. J. "The analysis of road traffic accident data in the implementation of road safety remedial programmes." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52483.
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Thesis (M.Ing.)--Stellenbosch University, 2001.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A road safety remedial programme has as an objective the improvement of road transportation safety by applying road safety engineering remedial measures to hazardous road network elements in a manner that will be economically efficient. Since accident data is the primary manifestation of poor safety levels it must be analysed in manner that will support the overall objective of economic efficiency. Three steps in the process of implementing a road safety remedial programme, that rely on the systematic analysis of accident data, are the identification of hazardous locations, the ranking of hazardous locations and the evaluation of remedial measure effectiveness. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be enhanced by using appropriate methodologies to measure safety, identify and rank hazardous locations and to determine the effectiveness of road safety remedial measures. There are a number of methodologies available to perform these tasks, although some perform much better than other. Methodologies based on the Empirical Bayesian approach generally provide better results than the Conventional methods. Bayesian methodologies are not often used in South Africa. To do so would require the additional training of students and engineering professionals as well as more research by tertiary and other research institutions. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be compromised by using poor quality accident data. In South Africa the quality of accident data is generally poor and should more attention be given to the proper management and control of accident data. This thesis will report on, investigate and evaluate Bayesian and Conventional accident data analysis methodologies.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram is om op die mees koste effektiewe manier die veiligheid van onveilige padnetwerkelemente te verbeter deur die toepassing van ingenieursmaatreëls. Aangesien padveiligheid direk verband hou met verkeersongelukke vereis die koste effektiewe implementering van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram die doelgerigte en korrekte ontleding van ongeluksdata. Om 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram te implementeer word die ontleding van ongeluksdata verlang vir die identifisering en priortisering van gevaarkolle, sowel as om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Die koste effektiwiteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram kan verbeter word deur die regte metodes te kies om padveiligheid te meet, gevaarkolle te identifiseer en te prioritiseer en om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Daar is verskeie metodes om hierdie ontledings te doen, alhoewel sommige van die metodes beter is as ander. Die 'Bayesian' metodes lewer oor die algemeen beter resultate as die gewone konvensionele metodes. 'Bayesian' metodes word nie. in Suid Afrika toegepas nie. Om dit te doen sal addisionele opleiding van studente en ingenieurs vereis, sowel as addisionele navorsing deur universiteite en ander navorsing instansies. Die gebruik van swak kwaliteit ongeluksdata kan die integriteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram benadeel. Die kwaliteit van ongeluksdata in Suid Afrika is oor die algemeen swak en behoort meer aandag gegee te word aan die bestuur en kontrole van ongeluksdata. Die doel van hierdie tesis is om verslag te doen oor 'Bayesian' en konvensionele metodes wat gebruik kan word om ongeluksdata te ontleed, dit te ondersoek en te evalueer.
7
Chan, Wing-yee. "An application of GIS for road accident analysis in Hong Kong /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2000. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk:8888/cgi-bin/hkuto%5Ftoc%5Fpdf?B23294577.
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Yao, Shenjun, and 姚申君. "Advances in spatial analysis of traffic crashes: the identification of hazardous road locations." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2013. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B50434445.
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The identification of hazardous road locations is important to the improvement of road safety. However, there is still no consensus on the best method of identifying hazardous road locations. While traditional methods, such as the hot spot methodology, focus on the physical distances separating road crashes only, the hot zone methodology takes network contiguity into consideration and treats contiguous road segments as hazardous road locations. Compared with the hot spot method, hot zone methodology is a relatively new direction and there still remain a number of methodological issues in applying the method to the identification of hazardous road locations. Hence, this study aims to provide a GIS-based study on the identification of crash hot zones as hazardous road locations with both link-attribute and event-based approaches. It first explores the general procedures of the two approaches in identifying traffic crash hot zones, and then investigates the characteristics of the two approaches by conducting a range of sensitivity analysis on defining threshold value and crash intensity with both simulated and empirical data.
The results suggest that it is better to use a dissolved road network instead of a raw-link-node road network. The segmentation length and the interval of reference points have great impacts on the identification of hot zones, and they are better defined as 100 meters considering the stabilities of the performance. While employing a numerical definition to identify hot zones is a simple and effort-saving approach, using the Monte Carlo method can avoid selection bias in choosing an appropriate number as the threshold value. If the two approaches are compared, it is observed that the link-attribute approach is more likely to cause false negative problem and the event-based approach is prone to false positive problem around road junctions. No matter which method is used, the link-attribute approach requires less computer time in identifying crash hot zones. When a range of environmental variables have to be taken into consideration, the link-attribute approach is superior to the event-based approach in that it is easier for the link-attribute approach to incorporate environmental variables with statistical models.
By investigating the hot zone methodology, this research is expected to enrich the theoretical knowledge of the identification of hazardous road locations and to practically provide policy-makers with more information on identifying road hazards. Further research efforts have to be dedicated to the ranking of hot zones and the investigation of false positive and false negative problems.published_or_final_version
Geography
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Kayi, Calvine. "An analysis of road traffic accidents using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) : the case of Nairobi City, Kenya /." Hamburg : Kovač, 2007. http://www.verlagdrkovac.de/978-3-8300-3247-2.htm.
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Chan, Wing-yee, and 陳詠怡. "An application of GIS for road accident analysis in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2000. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31224052.
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S, Alvarez Victor. "Understanding Boundary Conditions for Brain Injury Prediction : Finite Element Analysis of Vulnerable Road Users." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Neuronik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-215643.
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Vulnerable road users (VRUs) are overrepresented in the statistics on severe and deadly injuries in traffic accidents, most commonly involving the head. The finite element (FE) method presents the possibility to model complex interactions between the human body and vehicles in order to better understand the injury mechanisms. While the rapid development of computer capacity has allowed for increasingly detailed FE-models, there is always a benefit of reducing the studied problem. Due to its material properties, the brain is more sensitive to rotational motion than to purely linear, resulting in complex injury causation. When studying brain injuries caused by a direct impact to the head, simulations using an isolated head model significantly increases efficiency compared to using a complete human body model. Also evaluation of head protective systems uses isolated mechanical head representations. It is not, however, established the extent to which the boundary conditions of the head determine the outcome of brain injuries. FE models of both the entire human body and the isolated head were used in this thesis to study the effect of the body, as well as active neck muscle tension, on brain injury outcome in VRU accidents. A pediatric neck model was also developed to enable the study of age-specific effects. A vehicle windscreen model was developed to evaluate the necessity of capturing the failure deformation during pedestrian head impacts. It was shown that the influence of the neck and body on brain injury prediction is greater in longer duration impacts, such as pedestrian head-to-windscreen impacts with an average difference of 21%. In accidents with shorter duration impacts, such as head-to-ground bicycle accidents, the average influence was between 3-12%. The influence did not consistently increase or limit the severity, and was dependent on the degree of rotation induced by the impact, as well as the mode of deformation induced in the neck. It was also shown that the predicted brain injury severity is dependent on capturing the large deformations of fractured windscreen, with the greatest effect near the windscreen frame. The pediatric neck model showed a large effect of age-dependent anatomical changes on inertial head loading, making it a promising tool to study the age-dependent effects in VRU accidents.QC 20171013
12
Ouyang, Xutong. "Exploring the attributes relevant to accidents between vehicles and unprotected road users, taking Stockholm as an example." Thesis, KTH, Geoinformatik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-278990.
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Traffic accidents is one of the major causes of fatalities and economic loss around the world. Thus, there is an urgent need for a better understanding about the factors that contribute to accidents so that the accidents can be prevented in the future. The research objective of this thesis is to analyze the traffic accidents between vehicles and unprotected road users (pedestrians and bicycles) in Stockholm, finding spatial distribution patterns, related attributes and examining relationships between accidents and a number of vehicle flows. The data is first analyzed with general statistical analysis to examine the basic characteristics. There is no apparent trend of change among the number of accidents per year, while the numbers of accidents happening from May to October is higher than the rest of the year except for July due to less traffic during holiday period. Most traffic accidents occur in overcast weather, on a dry road surface, or during the day. In the spatial analysis part of the thesis, Global Moran’s I is used to detect whether there is an attribute-related spatial distribution pattern. Hot spot analysis is then applied on the clustered attributes to find significant hot and cold spots over the study area. The conclusions are that road surface conditions and occurrence time during day/night are two related factors that influence traffic accidents while weather is not considered a related attribute since the accidents distribute randomly in terms of weather, of which it is difficult to obtain temporally-aligned, detailed local information for further analysis. Different parameters are selected and discussed during the process. When calculating the distance between two accidents in traffic accident analysis, Manhattan distance is more appropriate than Euclidean distance since traffic accidents are restricted to the road network. The distance band determines scales of analysis tools, with 50 meters on an intersection and 500 meters for a larger region in Stockholm. Most hot spots arise at intersections and roundabouts where different types of traffic flows meet each other. The result of the relationships between traffic accidents and different types of vehicle flows shows that the correlation coefficients between number of traffic accidents and traffic flows are low, meaning that there is no obvious correlation between them, which is also proved by the scatter plots. Poisson regression model is applied on the traffic accident data. As a result, high-risk and low-risk areas in Stockholm are pointed out. Some are consistent with the hot-spot analysis result.
13
Berdica, Katja. "TraVIS for Roads - Examples of Road Transport Vulnerability Impact Studies." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2002. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3438.
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Alvarez, Stephanie. "Évaluation des gains de sécurité, sécurisation des essais et analyse des accidents du véhicule autonome : une approche systémique." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLEM006/document.
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Les constructeurs automobiles fabriquant des systèmes de conduite automatisée ont besoin d’aborder les conséquences que ces systèmes peuvent avoir sur la sécurité routière. Notamment pour l’évaluation des gains de sécurité, la sécurisation des essais et l’analyse des accidents impliquant le véhicule autonome. Cependant, le cadre conceptuel actuel utilisé dans la sécurité routière peut ne pas être adapté pour l’analyse des changements et des nouvelles interactions introduits par l’automatisation du véhicule à travers toutes les échelles du système sociotechnique de transport routier.Le but de la thèse est d’appliquer une approche systémique fondée sur STAMP afin d'étudier les gains attendus du véhicule autonome en termes de sécurité routière, sécuriser les expérimentations et analyser les accidents impliquant ce type de véhicule, à travers toutes les échelles du système sociotechnique de transport routier.Afin de contribuer au calcul des gains du véhicule autonome sur la sécurité routière, la population cible d’un « highway pilot system» a été définie et des questions issue d’une analyse STPA (analyse des risques issue de STAMP) aidant à l’évaluation de l’efficacité du système ont été élaborées.Un cadre de sécurisation des expérimentations couvrant tous les niveaux du système a été mis en place au moyen d’une analyse STPA à deux échelles.Enfin, une méthode d’analyse des accidents impliquant un conducteur automatisé a été créé en intégrant des éléments issus de méthodes d’analyses des accidents de la route existantes et des éléments explicatifs développés spécialement à la méthode CAST (méthode d’analyse des accidents fondée sur STAMP). L’accident impliquant une Tesla en mai 2016 est le cas d’étude de cette nouvelle méthode, CASCAD.En conclusion, ces trois applications ont montré tout le potentiel d’une approche systémique fondée sur STAMP pour offrir un cadre conceptuel adapté à l’évaluation des conséquences sur la sécurité routière de la conduite automatiséeAs automakers develop automated driving systems, they must address the implications of such systems on road safety. Notably for the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis. However, the existing conceptual framework in road safety may not be adapted to analyze the changes and new interactions introduced by vehicle automation at all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.The main objective of this thesis is to apply a systems theoretic approach based on STAMP to examine the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis of automated driving across all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.This research first contributes to safety benefit assessment by estimating the target population of a highway pilot system and by generating questions derived from an STPA analysis (hazard analysis based on STAMP) to facilitate the evaluation of the influence of the highway pilot system on road safety.Next, this work establishes a framework to ensure trial safety across the macroscopic and microscopic levels of the vehicle trial system by structuring the outputs of two STPA analyses.Finally, this thesis integrates elements from existing crash analysis methods and newly developed guidance elements into CAST (an accident analysis method based on STAMP) to develop a new method for the accident analysis of crashes involving automated driving called CASCAD. The application of CASCAD was illustrated using the available information of the Tesla crash on May 2016.The three applications of this research show the potential of a STAMP-based approach to provide a suitable conceptual framework for the analysis of the implications of road safety on automated driving
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Lee, Jinsun. "Econometric analysis of the effect of roadway geometric and roadside features on run-off-roadway accident frequencies and severities /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/10130.
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Tunaru, Radu. "Statistical modelling of road accident data via graphical models and hierarchical Bayesian models." Thesis, Middlesex University, 1999. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/8030/.
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The objective of this thesis is to develop statistical models for multivariate road accident data. Two directions of research are followed: graphical modelling for contingency tables cross-classified by accident characteristics, and hierarchical Bayesian models for multiple accident frequencies of different types modelled jointly. Multi-dimensional tables are analysed and it is shown how to use collapsibility to reduce the dimensionality of the analysis without the problems of Simpson's paradox. It is revealed that accident severity and the number of casualties are associated, and that these variables are mainly influenced by the number of vehicles and speed limit. Graphical chain models allow causal hypotheses to be formulated and it is shown how they are valuable tools for empirical research about road accident characteristics. The hierarchical Bayesian models developed combine generalized linear models with random effects. The novelty of these models consists in the joint modelling of multiple response variables. The models account for overdispersion and they are used for accident prediction and for ranking hazardous sites. All models are fully Bayesian and are fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. It is shown that multiple response variables models are superior to separate univariate response models. Some theoretical problems are examined regarding the maximum likelihood estimation process for the two parameters negative binomial distribution. A condition is given that is equivalent with unique maximum likelihood estimators. The two directions of research are connected by using graphs to describe the models. In addition, a new Bayesian model selection procedure for contingency tables is proposed. This is based on Gibbs sampling and avoids problems associated with asymptotic tests. The conclusions revealed here can help practitioners to design better safety policies and to spend money more wisely on sites that really are dangerous.
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Majero, T. A. Tiffany. "Retrospective analysis of blunt force trauma associated with fatal road traffic accidents in Cape Town (South Africa) over a two-year period." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29580.
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Road transportation systems are a global developmental achievement. However, with them comes increased morbidity and mortality rates in the form of road traffic accidents. In South Africa, there is a need to characterize road traffic accidents and the injuries associated with them, to determine the preventative mechanisms required to reduce their morbidity and mortality rates. A brief review of fatal road traffic accidents from a global perspective is presented, highlighting the current literature surrounding the prevalence, demographics and blunt force trauma injuries associated with road traffic accidents in South Africa. There is limited research regarding the prevalence and characteristics of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of fatal road traffic accidents, necessitating the need for research, particularly at the regional level. A retrospective analysis was therefore conducted of all fatal road traffic accident related deaths autopsied at Salt River Mortuary (which services the West Metropole region of Cape Town, South Africa) from January 1st , 2013 to December 31st , 2014. The mean prevalence of road traffic accidents for the reviewed period was 15.9 / 100 000 population. The majority of road traffic accident victims were males who fell in the age group of 30 – 49 years. Over the two-year period, the majority of road traffic accident victims were pedestrians with elevated blood alcohol concentration levels. The head and facial regions of victims commonly exhibited external injuries, while the majority of fractures and organ injury were seen in the head and chest regions. There are limited studies which have investigated the blunt force trauma injuries associated with road traffic accidents in South Africa, and there is a need for further research. Interventions are of paramount importance to decrease fatal road traffic accidents, particularly amongst pedestrians as a road user. This study presents recent data on road traffic accidents for the West Metropole region of Cape Town (South Africa).
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Lindberg, Gunnar. "Valuation and pricing of traffic safety /." Örebro : Universitetsbiblioteket : Örebro University, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-787.
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Huang, Yu-Hsing. "Having a New Pair of Glassess : Applying Systemic Accident Models on Road Safety." Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, CSELAB - Cognitive Systems Engineering Laboratory, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-8189.
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The main purpose of the thesis is to discuss the accident models which underlie accident prevention in general and road safety in particular, and the consequences of relying on a particular model have for actual preventive work. The discussion centres on two main topics. The first topic is whether the underlying accident model, or paradigm, of traditional road safety should be exchanged for a more complex accident model, and if so, which model(s) are appropriate. From a discussion of current developments in modern road traffic, it is concluded that the traditional accident model of road safety needs replacing. An analysis of three general accident model types shows that the work of traditional road safety is based on a sequential accident model. Since research in industrial safety has shown that such model are unsuitable for complex systems, it needs to be replaced by a systemic model, which better handles the complex interactions and dependencies of modern road traffic. The second topic of the thesis is whether the focus of road safety should shift from accident investigation to accident prediction. Since the goal of accident prevention is to prevent accidents in the future, its focus should theoretically be on how accidents will happen rather than on how they did happen. Despite this, road safety traditionally puts much more emphasis on accident investigation than prediction, compared to areas such as nuclear power plant safety and chemical industry safety. It is shown that this bias towards the past is driven by the underlying sequential accident model. It is also shown that switching to a systemic accident model would create a more balanced perspective including both investigations of the past and predictions of the future, which is seen as necessary to deal with the road safety problems of the future. In the last chapter, more detailed effects of adopting a systemic perspective is discussed for four important areas of road safety, i.e. road system modelling, driver modelling, accident/incident investigations and road safety strategies. These descriptions contain condensed versions of work which has been done in the FICA and the AIDE projects, and which can be found in the attached papers.
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Johansson, Sofia, and Sri Vasireddy. "Analysis of Mobility and Traffic Safety with Respect to Changes in Volumes; Case Study: Stockholm, Sweden." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Kommunikations- och transportsystem, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-177780.
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The growing population and motorization generate more movements. In many cities, the increase of population and motorization is much greater than the development of the capacity of the transportation network. For unprotected road users, the risk of getting in a traffic accident increases and the risk of being more severely injured in an accident. In March 2020, a pandemic was declared because of a Coronavirus. More people started to work/study from home to prevent the virus from spreading by avoiding unnecessary trips, gatherings, and crowded areas. Therefore, travel behaviours have shifted during the pandemic compared to previous years. This project aims to get knowledge of how mobility and traffic accidents are affected by significant shifts of travel flow, predict the effect of traffic accidents based on mobility, and evaluate the risk of travelling on a particular road segment.Examensarbetet är utfört vid Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap (ITN) vid Tekniska fakulteten, Linköpings universitet
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Almonte, Valdivia Ana Maria. "Level-of-service and traffic safety relationship an exploratory analysis of signalized intersections and multilane high-speed arterial corridors /." Orlando, Fla. : University of Central Florida, 2009. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/CFE0002615.
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Wang, Chunyan. "Fatal crash trends and analysis in southeastern states." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://etd.gatech.edu/theses/available/etd-04092006-023047/.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (p. 209-211). Also available online via the Georgia Institute of Technology ETD website (http://etd.gatech.edu/).
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Švábenský, Petr. "Využití dat z řídicích jednotek vozidel při analýze silničních nehod." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-232733.
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Abstract Master thesis is focused on The Application of Data from Vehicle Electronic Control Units in the Analysis of Road Accidents. The theoretical part deals with the electronic systems of vehicles and their control units, diagnostic processes, retrieving accident data from the controls unit and the need for these data in the analysis of road accidents. The experimental part focuses on obtaining data for crashed vehicles, interpretation of such data and assessment of their usefulness for analyzing road accidents. It also focuses on the procedures and methods on how to retreive accident data.
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Rafferty, Paula S. "Spatial Analysis of North Central Texas Traffic Fatalities 2001-2006." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2010. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc33195/.
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A traditional two dimensional (planar) statistical analysis was used to identify the clustering types of North Central Texas traffic fatalities occurring in 2001-2006. Over 3,700 crash locations clustered in ways that were unlike other researched regions. A two dimensional (x and y coordinates) space was manipulated to mimic a one dimensional network to identify the tightest clustering of fatalities in the nearly 400,000 crashes reported from state agencies from 2003-2006. The roadway design was found to significantly affect crash location. A one dimensional (linear) network analysis was then used to measure the statistically significant clustering of flow variables of after dark crashes and daylight crashes. Flow variables were determined to significantly affect crash location after dark. The linear and planar results were compared and the one dimensional, linear analysis was found to be more accurate because it did not over detect the clustering of events on a network.
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Turner, Shane. "Estimating accidents in a road network." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/5677.
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This thesis describes the development of models for predicting accidents at the intersections in a road network, from the turning traffic volumes at each intersection. The accident prediction models were developed using Poisson and negative binomial regression for each of the major accident types, at each of the major intersection types. Countrywide models that predict the motor vehicle accidents (accidents involving motor vehicles only) in a five year period, from the product of the conflicting traffic volumes were developed for each accident type. Accident prediction models have also been developed to predict the number of motor vehicle accidents occurring in different periods of the day (eg. the morning peak, 7am to 9am) and in different urban centres.
This thesis also describes three case studies, where the accident prediction models have been used to predict the total number of accidents (major accident types) at the intersections in three road networks. Case studies were performed on the Christchurch Southern Arterial network, Christchurch Central network and the Lower Hutt network. For the two latter networks the total number of intersection accidents predicted was quite similar to that observed. In the Southern Arterial network, however, the total number of intersection accidents was under-predicted considerably.
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Ouni, Zaïd. "Statistique pour l’anticipation des niveaux de sécurité secondaire des générations de véhicules." Thesis, Paris 10, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA100099/document.
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La sécurité routière est une priorité mondiale, européenne et française. Parce que les véhicules légers (ou simplement “les véhicules”) sont évidemment l’un des acteurs principaux de l’activité routière, l'amélioration de la sécurité routière passe nécessairement par l’analyse de leurs caractéristiques accidentologiques. Si les nouveaux véhicules sont développés en bureau d’étude et validés en laboratoire, c’est la réalité accidentologique qui permet de vraiment cerner comment ils se comportent en matière de sécurité secondaire, c’est-à-dire quelle sécurité ils offrent à leurs occupants lors d’un accident. C’est pourquoi les constructeurs souhaitent procéder au classement des générations de véhicules en fonction de leurs niveaux de sécurité secondaire réelle. Nous abordons cette thématique en exploitant les données nationales d’accidents corporels de la route appelées BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). En complément de celles-ci, les données de parc automobile permettent d’associer une classe générationelle (CG) à chaque véhicule. Nous élaborons deux méthodes de classement de CGs en termes de sécurité secondaire. La première produit des classements contextuels, c’est-à-dire des classements de CGs plongées dans des contextes d’accident. La seconde produit des classements globaux, c’est-`a-dire des classements de CGs déterminés par rapport à une distribution de contextes d’accident. Pour le classement contextuel, nous procédons par “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe un nombre réel à toute combinaison de CG et de contexte d’accident ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est sûre dans le contexte d’accident donné. La fonction de score optimale est estimée par “ensemble learning”, sous la forme d’une combinaison convexe optimale de fonctions de score produites par une librairie d’algorithmes de classement par scoring. Une inégalité oracle illustre les performances du méta-algorithme ainsi obtenu. Le classement global est également basé sur le principe de “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe à toute CG un nombre réel ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est jugée sûre globalement. Des arguments causaux permettent d’adapter le méta-algorithme évoqué ci-dessus en s’affranchissant du contexte d’accident. Les résultats des deux méthodes de classement sont conformes aux attentes des expertsRoad safety is a world, European and French priority. Because light vehicles (or simply“vehicles”) are obviously one of the main actors of road activity, the improvement of roadsafety necessarily requires analyzing their characteristics in terms of traffic road accident(or simply “accident”). If the new vehicles are developed in engineering department and validated in laboratory, it is the reality of real-life accidents that ultimately characterizesthem in terms of secondary safety, ie, that demonstrates which level of security they offer to their occupants in case of an accident. This is why car makers want to rank generations of vehicles according to their real-life levels of safety. We address this problem by exploiting a French data set of accidents called BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). In addition, fleet data are used to associate a generational class (GC) to each vehicle. We elaborate two methods of ranking of GCs in terms of secondary safety. The first one yields contextual rankings, ie, rankings of GCs in specified contexts of accident. The second one yields global rankings, ie, rankings of GCs determined relative to a distribution of contexts of accident. For the contextual ranking, we proceed by “scoring”: we look for a score function that associates a real number to any combination of GC and a context of accident; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC in the given context. The optimal score function is estimated by “ensemble learning”, under the form of an optimal convex combination of scoring functions produced by a library of ranking algorithms by scoring. An oracle inequality illustrates the performance of the obtained meta-algorithm. The global ranking is also based on “scoring”: we look for a scoring function that associates any GC with a real number; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC. Causal arguments are used to adapt the above meta-algorithm by averaging out the context. The results of the two ranking procedures are in line with the experts’ expectations
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Chee, Wing-yan David. "Road accidents : identification of patterns and trends /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1999. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B21128819.
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Chee, Wing-yan David, and 遲榮仁. "Road accidents: identification of patterns and trends." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1999. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31951879.
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Nováková, Kristýna. "Bezpečnostní inspekce na vybraných lokalitách v Olomouckém kraji." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-372077.
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The diploma thesis focuses on a road safety inspection of selected intersections in Olomouc Region. The first step of the diploma thesis was to select 20 intersections, then each one was subjected to accident analysis. The intersections were compared by accident indicators, which were the basis of selection 11 intersections for visual inspection purposes. Based on visual inspections, the selection was further reduced to 4 intersections in Olomouc Region, which were subjected to detailed road safety inspection, then the potential risks influencing the origins of accident were identified and corrective measures were proposed in order to remove or eliminate the intersections problems.
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Brodňanská, Erika. "Speciální bezpečnostní inspekce na vybraných lokalitách v Jihomoravském kraji." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-265585.
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The thesis focuses on a road safety inspection in South Moravian Region. In the first part, 15 locations with different characteristics were chosen, which were subjected to in-depth accident analysis and then compared by security indicators. On the basis of the results of this analysis, 5 locations were selected, namely the junction on a road II/430 and four sections on the roads II/373, II/384 and II/394. The selected sites were the objects for a road safety inspection, consisting of a personal visit of sections and the subsequent preparation of the potential risks influencing the origins of accidents. For each risk are proposed corrective measures that remove or eliminate the problems on selected section.
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Saunders, Roger. "Road traffic accidents and their implications for management." Thesis, Bournemouth University, 1987. http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/413/.
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It has been known for some time that police records collected by the Department of Transport could be unreliable. Local Authorities use these data as an aid to the decision making process and to assist with objective setting. Studies warning of deficiencies in the accuracy of Stats 19 police data show confusing and often differing levels of inaccuracy. Due to the atypical nature of Road Traffic Accident typology the thesis sets out to examine a methodology for use by professional safety practitioners in order to test the reliability and accuracy of existing data and to test how in an operational environment these data might be expanded to meet the needs of the practitioner responsible for education, training and publicity measures rather than the pure highway engineering function which exists at the present time. Saunders, in 'Road Safety Management in a shire county' showed how tactical objectives were set by safety practitioners but concluded that operational resource planning was a vital stepping stone between the tactical and operational objective setting phase. The thesis examines this aspect in depth from a theoretical backcloth but illustrates throughout how this is-necessary to improve management efficiency and effectiveness within a public sector organisation. The thesis examines the levels of under-reporting in the local area from a management standpoint and considers the effects this information will have on the organisation. At the same time, aids to accident analysis such as statements made to the police and methods for improving the quality and reliability of data collection in an operational setting are considered. From this, the thesis examines the current and a proposed revision of the resource base and considers how these findings affect the operational resource plan for the organisation. This, and the methodology discussed, is a necessary management consideration if it is to enable an organisation to meet its aims and objectives.
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Jokešová, Markéta. "Možnosti využití GPS při analýze silničních nehod." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-232609.
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Diploma thesis deals with the possibilities of using GPS when analysing road accidents. The history and structure of U.S. global positioning system, Russian GLONASS system and European Galileo system are described. GPS receivers are sorted out by the possibility of use. The thesis deals with the methods of refinement GPS and how the vehicles can be monitored using GPS. In the practical part of this diploma thesis measurements with several types of navigations were made. And a comparison of accuracy of measured data with the real situation where the car was found at the moment of measuring followed and how fast was gone.
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Špačková, Tereza. "Analýza počtu dopravních nehod na silnicích Středočeského kraje." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-11868.
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The aim of my diploma thesis is the analysis of traffic accident quantity on roads (highways and motorways) of Central Bohemia. My personal contribution to this topic is the particular analysis of accident frequency within Central Bohemia between 1994 and 2007. Nobody has dealt with such an analysis in frame of this region until the present. In the theoretical part of the thesis, basic definitions are expounded from the theory of traffic accident frequency and the partition of traffic accidents according to different criteria, and the classification of roads. There is a situation described in Central Bohemia for each type of classification for mentioned years. The practical part of the thesis is divided into three sections, which analyze problems from different points of view. In the first part, there are detected reciprocal relations between basic indicators of traffic accident frequency in the particular districts of Central Bohemia. The next part targets the analysis of time series of causes and results of traffic accidents within this region, in particular months of mentioned years. The aim of this part is to describe the trend of time series by acceptable methods and to estimate their supposed development in the following 12 months. In the third and final part of the thesis, the analysis of less commonly considered causes of traffic accidents are performed, as is directional conditions, status of road surface, visibility, weather conditions and transversal setting of communication. The target of this final part is to verify whether these factors significantly influence the number of traffic accidents on different types of roads.
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Hiemer, Marcus. "Model based detection and reconstruction of road traffic accidents." Karlsruhe : Univ.-Verl, 2005. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=974366552.
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Liu, Yilin. "Bayesian modelling of the spatial distribution of road accidents." Thesis, Middlesex University, 2008. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/13419/.
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This research aims to develop Hierarchical Bayesian models for road accident counts that take account of the spatial dependency in the neighbouring areas or sites. The Poisson log-linear model is extended by introducing a second level of random variation that includes a conditional autoregressive (CAR) component. Both models for accidents at the area level and models for accidents on a road network are developed. Areal models are fitted using data for counties and districts in England covering two different periods and data for wards in the West Midlands region in 200l. Network models are fitted to link data for the MI motorway and to junction data for the city of Coventry. Results show that, in most cases, adding a spatial (CAR) component to conventional models produces better estimates of the expected number of accidents in an area or at a site. Signs of the coefficients for explanatory variables, including level of traffic and road characteristics, are consistent with expectation. Levels of the spatial effects in a CAR model reflect the relative influence of the unknown or unmeasurable explanatory variables on the expected number of accidents. Results from models at the local authority level in the 2000s show that spatial effects are positive in London boroughs and are negative in most metropolitan districts. For accidents at the ward level in the West Midlands, the performance of the CAR model is similar to that of the non-CAR model which includes log-normal random effects and metropolitan county effects. For models of accidents on the MI, several links are identified to have positive and fairly large spatial effects. For Coventry junction accidents, the CAR model does not perform better than the non-CAR model. Approaches to including temporal effects in spatial models when data cover two or more periods and jointly modelling different types of accidents are also proposed and examined. Two applications of the CAR models developed in this research are introduced. The first application is about predicting the number of accidents in a local authority in a new year based on previous years' data. One advantage of using the CAR model is that it produces more precise predictions than the non-CAR model. The second application of the CAR model is a new approach for site ranking. The sites selected by such a criterion are those with high risks caused by some unknown or unmeasured factors for instance, curvature or gradient of roads) which are spatially correlated. Further on-site investigation will be needed to identify such factors.
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Papettas, Jenny. "The law applicable to cross border road traffic accidents." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2014. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/5168/.
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This Thesis addresses the issue of which law should apply in cases concerning cross border road traffic accidents. From the perspective of English law it examines the changes which have been effected by the adoption of the EU Rome II Regulation, the likely outcomes of the rules of Rome II, the interaction of Rome II with the Motor Insurance Directives and the complex tripartite relationship between Rome II, the Directives and the Hague Convention on the law Applicable to Traffic Accidents. The conclusion is that Rome II represents a different and more rigid approach to choice of law than previously existed in England and Wales. The dominant aim of Rome II is that of certainty and uniformity. Nevertheless, the competing aim of achieving justice for the parties creates a residual amount of conflict and uncertainty. However, a major criticism of the drafting of Rome II, advanced by this Thesis, is that it failed to recognise the importance of insurance in the settlement of traffic accident claims and to reflect this fact in its rules. This Thesis offers some proposals for reform in this regard.
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Scott, Andrew. "The effect of police enforcement on road traffic accidents." Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2010. http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/4414.
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The primary goal of this thesis is to investigate the effectiveness of police enforcement on Road Traffic Accidents; specifically, ‘Does police enforcement activity have any real effect on levels of Killed and Seriously Injured road traffic accidents?' Data relating to forty one Police Force Areas in England and Wales was analysed by means of Zero Truncated Poisson regression, Cluster Analysis and Multilevel Modelling. Enforcement measures available to the police, for which data is available in this report, range from Prosecutions and Fixed Penalty Notices to Written Warnings and Vehicle Defect Rectification Notices. Results from the Zero Truncated Poisson regression models have significant effects (P < .05), in relation to both contemporary and lagged Annual data and contemporary Quarterly data, for all proxy variables except Prosecutions. Significant effects (P < .05) are also found for Fixed Penalty Notices lagged by two quarters, Vehicle Defect Rectification Notices and speeding related Fixed Penalty Notices lagged by one quarter. Results from Cluster Analysis verify the trend linking increased police enforcement with decreasing KSI rates. Clusters derived from population based KSI rates are more clearly defined than those using Vehicle kilometres travelled based KSI rates. Multilevel modelling found significant fixed effects (P < .05) for Fixed Penalty Notices and speeding related Fixed Penalty Notices in relation to both derived and regional clusters, linking an increase in enforcement to a decrease in the overall KSI rate. There would seem to be little doubt, based on the findings of this report, that higher levels of police enforcement, as measured here, lead to decreasing numbers of KSI accidents.
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Wang, Bihao. "Geometrical and contextual scene analysis for object detection and tracking in intelligent vehicles." Thesis, Compiègne, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015COMP2197/document.
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Pour les véhicules intelligents autonomes ou semi-autonomes, la perception constitue la première tâche fondamentale à accomplir avant la décision et l’action. Grâce à l’analyse des données vidéo, Lidar et radar, elle fournit une représentation spécifique de l’environnement et de son état, à travers l’extraction de propriétés clés issues des données des capteurs. Comparé à d’autres modalités de perception telles que le GPS, les capteurs inertiels ou les capteurs de distance (Lidar, radar, ultrasons), les caméras offrent la plus grande quantité d’informations. Grâce à leur polyvalence, les caméras permettent aux systèmes intelligents d’extraire à la fois des informations contextuelles de haut niveau et de reconstruire des informations géométriques de la scène observée et ce, à haute vitesse et à faible coût. De plus, la technologie de détection passive des caméras permet une faible consommation d’énergie et facilite leur miniaturisation. L’utilisation des caméras n’est toutefois pas triviale et pose un certain nombre de questions théoriques liées à la façon dont ce capteur perçoit son environnement. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons un système de détection d’objets mobiles basé seule- ment sur l’analyse d’images. En effet, dans les environnements observés par un véhicule intelligent, les objets en mouvement représentent des obstacles avec un risque de collision élevé, et ils doivent être détectés de manière fiable et robuste. Nous abordons le problème de la détection d’objets mobiles à partir de l’extraction du contexte local reposant sur une segmentation de la route. Après transformation de l’image couleur en une image invariante à l’illumination, les ombres peuvent alors être supprimées réduisant ainsi leur influence négative sur la détection d’obstacles. Ainsi, à partir d’une sélection automatique de pixels appartenant à la route, une région d’intérêt où les objets en mouvement peuvent apparaître avec un risque de collision élevé, est extraite. Dans cette zone, les pixels appartenant à des objets mobiles sont ensuite identifiés à l’aide d’une approche plan+parallaxe. À cette fin, les pixels potentiellement mobiles et liés à l’effet de parallaxe sont détectés par une méthode de soustraction du fond de l’image; puis trois contraintes géométriques différentes: la contrainte épipolaire, la contrainte de cohérence structurelle et le tenseur trifocal, sont appliquées à ces pixels pour filtrer ceux issus de l’effet de parallaxe. Des équations de vraisemblance sont aussi proposées afin de combiner les différents contraintes d’une manière complémentaire et efficace. Lorsque la stéréovision est disponible, la segmentation de la route et la détection d’obstacles peuvent être affinées en utilisant une segmentation spécifique de la carte de disparité. De plus, dans ce cas, un algorithme de suivi robuste combinant les informations de l’image et la profondeur des pixels a été proposé. Ainsi, si l’une des deux caméras ne fonctionne plus, le système peut donc revenir dans un mode de fonctionnement monoculaire ce qui constitue une propriété importante pour la fiabilité et l’intégrité du système de perception. Les différents algorithmes proposés ont été testés sur des bases de données d’images publiques en réalisant une évaluation par rapport aux approches de l’état de l’art et en se comparant à des données de vérité terrain. Les résultats obtenus sont prometteurs et montrent que les méthodes proposées sont efficaces et robustes pour différents scénarios routiers et les détections s’avèrent fiables notamment dans des situations ambiguësFor autonomous or semi-autonomous intelligent vehicles, perception constitutes the first fundamental task to be performed before decision and action/control. Through the analysis of video, Lidar and radar data, it provides a specific representation of the environment and of its state, by extracting key properties from sensor data with time integration of sensor information. Compared to other perception modalities such as GPS, inertial or range sensors (Lidar, radar, ultrasonic), the cameras offer the greatest amount of information. Thanks to their versatility, cameras allow intelligent systems to achieve both high-level contextual and low-level geometrical information about the observed scene, and this is at high speed and low cost. Furthermore, the passive sensing technology of cameras enables low energy consumption and facilitates small size system integration. The use of cameras is however, not trivial and poses a number of theoretical issues related to how this sensor perceives its environmen. In this thesis, we propose a vision-only system for moving object detection. Indeed,within natural and constrained environments observed by an intelligent vehicle, moving objects represent high risk collision obstacles, and have to be handled robustly. We approach the problem of detecting moving objects by first extracting the local contextusing a color-based road segmentation. After transforming the color image into illuminant invariant image, shadows as well as their negative influence on the detection process can be removed. Hence, according to the feature automatically selected onthe road, a region of interest (ROI), where the moving objects can appear with a high collision risk, is extracted. Within this area, the moving pixels are then identified usin ga plane+parallax approach. To this end, the potential moving and parallax pixels a redetected using a background subtraction method; then three different geometrical constraints : the epipolar constraint, the structural consistency constraint and the trifocaltensor are applied to such potential pixels to filter out parallax ones. Likelihood equations are also introduced to combine the constraints in a complementary and effectiveway. When stereo vision is available, the road segmentation and on-road obstacles detection can be refined by means of the disparity map with geometrical cues. Moreover, in this case, a robust tracking algorithm combining image and depth information has been proposed. If one of the two cameras fails, the system can therefore come back to a monocular operation mode, which is an important feature for perception system reliability and integrity. The different proposed algorithms have been tested on public images data set with anevaluation against state-of-the-art approaches and ground-truth data. The obtained results are promising and show that the proposed methods are effective and robust on the different traffic scenarios and can achieve reliable detections in ambiguous situations
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Dufournet, Marine. "Quantification du biais de sélection en sécurité routière : apport de l’inférence causale." Thesis, Lyon, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LYSE1244/document.
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Les principaux facteurs de l'insécurité routière sont connus, et l'enjeu réside aujourd'hui dans la mesure de l'effet d'un facteur, et la hiérarchisation de l'ensemble des causes intervenant dans la survenue de l'accident. Toutefois, les données disponibles concernent généralement que des accidentés. En l'absence de non-accidentés, l'épidémiologiste du risque routier se heurte à une sélection extrême. Une des solutions classiques est d'utiliser des analyses en responsabilité, et de mesurer l'effet causal d'un facteur sur le risque d'être responsable d'un accident. Néanmoins, la validité des analyses en responsabilité repose sur l'hypothèse, discutable, que les non-responsables sont représentatifs des circulants. L'objectif de cette thèse est donc de déterminer si les données disponibles d'accidentés permettent de fournir, via les analyses en responsabilité, des estimations des effets causaux sans biais, et notamment sans un biais de sélection résiduel. Nous montrons dans cette thèse que, dès lors que l'inclusion dépend de la gravité de l'accident, et que le facteur étudié a un impact sur la vitesse, il est impossible d'estimer l'effet causal du facteur sur le risque d'être responsable de l'accident grave sans un biais de sélection résiduel. Ce résultat est tout d'abord démontré de manière formelle, grâce à l'utilisation des modèles causaux structuraux. Ces modèles sont fondés sur une structure graphique, le DAG, qui représente les différentes relations entre les variables. Ce DAG permet la description des variables réellement observées, mais également des variables contrefactuelles, variables observables dans un monde contrefactuel où l'on aurait fixé l'exposition à une certaine valeur. L'effet causal étant défini à partir de ces variables contrefactuelles partiellement observées, c'est la structure du DAG qui permet de déterminer si l'effet causal peut être estimé en fonction des variables observées. Or, la structure du DAG conduisant à la survenue d'un accident grave ne permet pas d'exprimer l'effet causal du facteur étudié sur la responsabilité de l'accident grave en fonction des distributions observées sur les accidentés graves. Conditionner les estimations sur les accidentés graves correspond à ajuster sur une variable du DAG appelée « collider », et ainsi à introduire un biais dit de collision. En générant un modèle relativement simple, nous donnons à nos résultats théoriques une illustration numérique. En effet, lorsque les données ne dépendent pas de la gravité de l'accident, ou que le facteur étudié n'a pas d'effet sur la vitesse, la mesure estimable à partir des analyses en responsabilité est une mesure sans biais de l'effet causal, sous certaines hypothèses de prévalences faibles. Lorsque l'inclusion dépend de la gravité de l'accident, il existe un biais et ce biais induit par les analyses en responsabilité est d'autant plus grand que l'intensité de la relation entre le facteur et la vitesse, et celle entre la vitesse et l'accident est grand. Les schémas d'étude présentés permettent d'approcher des situations où le facteur étudié serait l'alcool ou le cannabis. Dans le cas de l'alcool, il apparait que sous le modèle simple considéré, la mesure d'association estimable serait une sous-estimation de l'effet causal. En revanche, dans le cas du cannabis, la mesure d'association correspondrait à une sur-estimation de l'effet causal. D'autre part, les outils de l'inférence causale nous ont permis de fournir une description formelle de la validité externe et interne, ainsi qu'une description formelle de la mesure d'association estimable via les analyses en responsabilité. Cette question de la validité interne d'une mesure se pose dans d'autres champs d'application que la sécurité routière. Elle se pose notamment dans le cas du paradoxe de l'obésité [etc...]Many factors associated with the risk and severity of road accidents are now widely considered as causal : alcohol, speed, usage of a mobile phone... Therefore, questions asked by decision-makers now mostly concern the magnitude of their causal effects, as well as the burden of deaths or victims attributable to these various causes of accident. One particularity of road safety epidemiology is that available data generally describe drivers and vehicles involved in road accidents only, or even severe road accidents only. This extreme selection precludes the estimation of causal effects. To circumvent this absence of « control » population of non-crash involved drivers, it is common to use responsibility analysis and to assess the causal effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible for an accident among involved drivers. The underlying assumption is that non-responsible drivers represent a random sample of the general driving population that was « selected » to crash by circumstances beyond their control and therefore have the same risk factor profile as other drivers on the road at the same time. However, this randomness assumption is questionable. The objective of this thesis is to determine whether available data in road safety allow us to assess causal effects on responsibility without a residual selection bias. We show that a good approximation of causal effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible is possible only if the inclusion into the dataset does not depend on the severity of the accident, or if the given factor has no effect on speed. This result is shown by using the Structural Causal Model (SCM) framework. The SCM framework is based on a causal graph : the DAG (directed acyclic graph), which represents the relationships among variables. The DAG allows the description of what we observe in the actual world, but also what we would have observed in counterfactual worlds, if we could have intervened and forced the exposure to be set to a given level. Causal effects are then defined by using counterfactual variables, and it is the DAG’s structure which determines whether causal effects are identifiable, or recoverable, and estimable from the distribution of observed variables. However, the assumptions embedded in the DAG which describes the occurence of a severe accident does not ensure that a causal odds ratios is expressible in terms of the observable distribution. Conditioning the estimations on involved drivers in a severe crash correspond to conditioning on a variable in the DAG called « collider », and to create a « collider bias ». We present numerical results to illustrate our theoretical arguments and the magnitude of the bias between the estimable association measure and some causal effects. Under the simple generative model considered, we show that, when the inclusion depends on the severity of the accident, the bias between the estimable association measure and causal effect is larger than the relation between the exposure and speed, or speed and the occurrence of a severe accident is strong. Moreover, the presented designs allow us to describe some situations where the exposure could be alcohol or cannabis intoxication. In the case of alcohol, where alcohol and speed are positively correlated, the estimable associational effect underestimates the causal effect. In the case of cannabis, where cannabis and speed are negatively correlated, the estimable associational effect overestimates the causal effect. On the other hand, we provide a formal definition of internal and external validity, and a counterfactual interpretation of the estimable quantity in the presence of selection bias, when causal effects are not recoverable. This formal interpretation of the estimable quantity in the presence of selection bias is not only useful in the context of responsibility analyses. It is for instance useful to explain the obesity paradox
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Zheng, Yunan. "The impact of localized road accident information on road safety awareness." Thesis, Connect to e-thesis, 2007. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/721/.
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Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Glasgow, 2007.Ph.D. thesis submitted the Faculty of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Department of Computing Science. Includes bibliographical references. Print version also available.
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Cameron, Maxwell Hugh 1943. "Statistical evaluation of road trauma countermeasures." Monash University, Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, 2000. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/7943.
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McGuigan, David Ronald Dickson. "An examination of relationships between road accidents and traffic flow." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/492.
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In this thesis it is suggested that the cost-effectiveness of road safety expenditure on low cost engineering remedial works could be improved because the currently adopted methods for assessing expenditure priorities do not necessarily identify thosa sites at which the greatest potential for accident reduction exists. An alternative method for the generation of more cost-effective programmes of works is proposed and justified. This method adopts the rationale of identifying those sites at which accidents are occurring in higher numbers than would otherwise be expected for such sites with equivalent traffic volumes and locations. The justification for the method involves detailed statistical analyses of over 10,000 accidents occurring in Lothian Region for the years 1979-1982 which demonstrate that there are significant relationships between accidents and traffic volumes and location details (eg junction type, form of junction control, adjacent roadside development and carriageway type). On this basis, models for accident occurrence have been determined. The analyses show that the temporal distribution conforms with a Poisson process and that the spatial distribution is negative binomial. It is shown - for both links and junctions - that whilst there are significant differences between the models for different accident types, they do not, in aggregate, produce significantly better models for all accidents than simple all accident models. In addition, the importance of regression-to-mean has been established as an effect which should be accounted for not just at the monitoring stage of completed schemes but as an integral part of the initial site selection process. Finally, it is demonstrated that the proposed method, which is called Potential Accident Reduction (PAR), may provide an improvernent of cost-effectiveness of road safety expenditure of up to 25% over the currently adopted methods.
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Jun, Ma. "Towards a general optimal model for minimizing nighttime road traffic accidents and road lighting power consumption." Thesis, Linköping University, Communications and Transport Systems, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-57232.
Full textAbstract:
Nowadays, NRTS (Nighttime Road Traffic Safety) and energy saving are very hot topics in transportation field. This thesis investigates a general optimal model for minimizing NRTAs (nighttime road traffic accidents) and power consumption of the road lighting. To establish this model, the relationship between N/D RTAs (Night to Day Road Traffic Accidents) ratio and road lighting condition and the relationship between power consumption and road lighting condition have been studied and explained. A media variable “economic cost” has been chosen which is used for making a connection between these two relationships. The evaluations of NRTAs and power consumption from cost point of view are introduced as well. The impacts of each internal factor defined by author are explained carefully. The result of the model based on these relationships and internal influencing factors is presented in the paper. Finally, the recommendations for reducing NRTAs and/or power consumption, as well as other interesting areas for further study are presented.
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Vokurka, Christopher. "Relating wildlife crashes to road reconstruction." Laramie, Wyo. : University of Wyoming, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1317334891&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=18949&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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McLundie, W. M. "Investigation of Two-Wheeled Road Traffic Accidents using Explicit FE Techniques." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1826/3170.
Full textAbstract:
With the increase of road traffic accidents increasing due to motorised traffic
in the developing world growing alongside the more traditional bicycles and
light motorcycles there is good reason to re-examine the two-wheeler case. In
addition, if you include the large congestion charge scheme now underway in
London and similar projects being considered in other cities globally, there is
an even stronger case. These schemes encourage commuters to get back
onto two wheels but with a potential increase in road traffic accidents.
The development of Explicit Finite Element Analysis (FEA) over the last 15
years, and large improvements in solver times has made examination of
complex impact events achievable. As an extension of this knowledge it is
now beginning to be feasible to consider the complex case of injury to
vulnerable road users (VRU's).
This thesis describes why two-wheeler accidents are increasingly relevant,
and the details of which injuries are most common in each particular case.
From physical testing, bicycle models for adult and child cases were created
and the most relevant car to cyclist accident scenarios re-constructed.
Existing humanoid models and vehicle models were adapted to understand
biomechanical effects in the collision.
The results show that although there is great variation due to this complex
event in terms of biomechanical and frictional effects and therefore the
resulting kinematics, as a mathematical method of investigating future protection devices it should be possible to gain a greater understanding of
their effects in the real world. To this end a final section detailing the
development of active and passive technologies (including structural
optimisation techniques) has been included.
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Edwards, Julia Bethan. "The influence of weather on road accidents in England and Wales." Thesis, Cardiff University, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.420404.
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Stewart, Douglas Lunan. "Safety implications of driver misperception in road accidents involving child pedestrians." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.358258.
Full textAbstract:
Accidents to child pedestrians are usually blamed on their inexperience and carelessness. This thesis proposes instead that the main problem is a form of driver error, overestimation of time-to-collision. When drivers have to make critical decisions about braking, time-to-collision may be much longer than can be reliably judged from optic flow. They therefore have to obtain time-to-collision indirectly from distance and speed. The main cue for distance is familiar size, so if a driver tends to misperceive a child as a larger person at a greater distance, he would overestimate time-to-collision. Risk of accident would therefore increase. That hypothesis is supported by a new collision simulation, which replicates a braking manoeuvre. An experiment based on the simulation supports the hypothesis, and allows influences on accidents to be predicted. These are tested from national accident statistics, which indicate that over half of all child pedestrian casualties would not occur but for this driver error. Several remedial measures are proposed. The experiment not only supports that hypothesis. It also suggests that the cognitive process by which time-to-collision is obtained from optic flow differs from that generally assumed - processing angular distance and angular velocity by the algorithm θ/θ. An alternative algorithm 2theta/θis proposed, where θ is angular acceleration, which provides the same value of time-to-collision without the need for angular distance. The new algorithm is supported by further experiment, and provides an understanding of situations which were difficult to reconcile with the θ/θ hypothesis. Our ability to respond to moving objects which are very small, of variable shape, visible only briefly, or changing speed, becomes more understandable. Though primarily related to pedestrian safety, therefore, the work reported in this thesis could have far wider application.
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Grant, Timothy A. "Prehospital Staffing and Road Traffic Accidents: Physician Versus Trained Nonphysician Responders." ScholarWorks, 2015. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/237.
Full textAbstract:
Road traffic deaths, which affect people in their productive years, are projected to be the third leading cause of death by the year 2030. While most studies have focused on road infrastructure and vehicle safety, this study examined something new: the impact of prehospital response to road traffic accidents on the rate of death. Some countries send physicians to the scene of an accident; some send paramedics or registered nurses. The question this research sought to answer was whether the use of physician responders resulted in a lower rate of death compared to the use of nonphysician responders. The literature makes it clear that rate of road traffic death is related to country income and governance indicators, so first those variables needed to be equalized. My conceptual framework for this cross-sectional correlation study was the Haddon matrix, which organizes injuries by temporal (pre-event, event, and postevent) and epidemiological (host, agent, and environment) factors. Using World Health Organization data on road traffic injury and country income, World Bank data on governance indicators, and a literature search of 67 countries' prehospital response profiles, significant negative correlations (p > 0.001) were found for road traffic deaths and income, r (65) = -0.68, and governance indicators, r (65) = -0.646. No significant difference in the rate of road traffic death was found between physician and nonphysician prehospital staffing. Because increasing countries' income and improving governance are long-term, ambitious goals for developing countries, training nonphysician prehospital responders appears to be the most effective social change to decrease the burden of road traffic deaths.
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Hammoudi, Abdulla Al. "Causes and strategies to reduce road traffic accidents in Abu Dhabi." Thesis, Cardiff Metropolitan University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10369/7556.
Full textAbstract:
Every year globally 1.3 million people lose their lives from road traffic accidents (RTAs). To date, there has not been a comprehensive evaluation of RTAs in the United Arab Emirates, and the results from this study would help in evaluating the issues related to RTAs. Relevant literature on factors related to RTAs was reviewed to inform the methods adopted for the study. Structured questionnaires were used to collect quantitative data among 291 drivers and 280 pedestrians in Abu Dhabi, while 41 key informant interviews with traffic managers provided qualitative data. Draft recommendations on RTAs in Abu Dhabi that were derived from drivers, pedestrians and key informant interviews were discussed with appropriate stakeholders , traffic managers and policy makers in the country that resulted in the development of RTAs benchmark in the country. The study has identified major causes of RTAs in Abu Dhabi, with young people between 18-25 years, the ones who are likely to cause RTAs in Abu Dhabi. Not wearing seat belt, using mobile phone and alcohol consumption were also identified as causes of RTAs. Aggressive driving behaviour was the most unsafe driving behaviours and included speeding, tailgating, not using indicators and jumping red traffic lights. Using a mobile phones as a pedestrian while crossing roads and crossing roads from undesignated places also contributed to RTAs. The study has proposed methods to reduce RTAs in Abu Dhabi including traffic law enforcement, traffic campaigns and education traffic safety programs. The study further proposes that a welcome pack be provided for new arrivals to the country, with information on the importance of traffic safety and to explain the traffic law in the country as an appropriate method to reduce RTAs in Abu Dhabi. The study further proposes that governments should work with relevant stakeholders to address issues related to RTAs.
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Nnajjuma, Hellen. "Road Traffic Accidents in Uganda in view of Taxi Drivers Masaka District." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Psykologisk institutt, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-25303.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this study was to explore how psychosocial lived experiences of taxi drivers explain accident involvement in Uganda. Face to face in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with six male taxi drivers who survived accidents while driving and still served as taxi drivers. The sample was identified with purposive and snowball sampling techniques. Ethical considerations were observed during data collection through transcription, analysis to the final compilation. Interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA) was employed to each participant’s discernment of the specific and general accounts of accident narratives in a bid to make "sense" of their lived worlds as drivers and accident involvement. Three superordinate themes illuminating accidents emerged out of the data: typical routines of taxi drivers; the socio-cultural context; and the taxi drivers’ community. These were discussed based on relevant theories and previous studies as well as pertinent concepts. Considering the study results, typical routines of taxi drivers, driver community factors and social/cultural factors affect each other, these together leave driver-accident involvement inevitable. Categorically such factors include; age, formal education, driving training, driver health status, domestic concerns, significant others, competitive driving / worse-worse, other road users, Impulsive pick and drop-off of passengers, theft, driver stress, state of the road, state of the vehicle among others. Thus behavioural and cognitive remedies are herein suggested towards ameliorative and/or transformative processes of the accident endemic.