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1
Pal, Satyabrata, and Arunava Ghosh. "Global annual average temperature – a precise modelling." Biometrical Letters 51, no. 1 (2014): 37–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/bile-2014-0003.
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SUMMARY Global annual average temperature (GAAT) is regarded as a precise indicator of the warming of the globe over the centuries, and its spectre is looming large with the passage of time and with the advancement of civilization. Global warming, caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has become the worst environmental threat to mankind. The phase 1981 to 2012 was the most crucial phase, and the impact of global warming in that phase indeed points to a disaster if not controlled now. Work on the building of appropriate models to represent the GAAT data can be found in the literature, although the precision levels (in terms of R2 values) of such models do not exceed 0.86. In this paper, six models are developed by using different combinations of mathematical functions. The developed models are superior to existing models in terms of their precision. In fact, to generate such models, extensive simulation work has been carried out not only with respect to the types of mathematical functions, but also with respect to the choices of initial values of the coefficients involved in each model. The models developed here have attained R2 values as high as 0.896.
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Wang, Jian, and Jinfeng Yin. "TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN JINAN." International Journal of Advanced Research 5, no. 8 (2017): 11–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.21474/ijar01/5030.
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Kitaev, D. N., A. T. Kurnosov, Z. S. Hasanov, and S. O. Kharin. "CALCULATION OF ANNUAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN HEAT NETWORKS." Russian Journal of Building Construction and Architecture, no. 4(48) (January 6, 2021): 6–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.36622/vstu.2020.48.4.001.
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Statement of the problem. When carrying out design calculations of heating networks, in particular, calculating the thickness of thermal insulation structures, thermal elongations during thermal expansion, standard losses during the transportation of thermal energy to the consumer, it is often necessary to use the design values of the average annual temperatures of the coolant indicated depending on the design temperature schedule in modern standards [18, 24]. According to a number of researchers, the recommended values of average annual coolant temperatures do not take into account climatological characteristics and their use can lead to significant errors [1--3]. In addition, recommended temperatures have changed over the past few years and there has been a contradiction in regulations. Currently, there are no substantiated values of the design average annual temperatures of the heat carrier in the heating network, taking into account climatological data. Results. For the design temperatures of the temperature graphs of the central quality regulation95 / 70--150 / 70 for the settlements of the territory of the central federal district, presented in the latest edition of building climatology, the values of the average annual water temperatures in the supply line of the heating network have been determined. The averaged values of temperatures for the considered temperature graphs are obtained.Conclusions. For most of the temperature graphs, significant discrepancies have been established between the calculated values of the average annual water temperatures in the heating network and those recommended by the JV “Heating Networks” of the latest edition. The maximum difference is observed for the 150/70 graph and is 12 ° C.
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Kitaev, D. N., A. T. Kurnosov, Z. S. Hasanov, and S. O. Kharin. "CALCULATION OF ANNUAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN HEAT NETWORKS." Russian Journal of Building Construction and Architecture, no. 4(48) (January 6, 2021): 6–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.36622/vstu.2020.48.4.001.
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Statement of the problem. When carrying out design calculations of heating networks, in particular, calculating the thickness of thermal insulation structures, thermal elongations during thermal expansion, standard losses during the transportation of thermal energy to the consumer, it is often necessary to use the design values of the average annual temperatures of the coolant indicated depending on the design temperature schedule in modern standards [18, 24]. According to a number of researchers, the recommended values of average annual coolant temperatures do not take into account climatological characteristics and their use can lead to significant errors [1--3]. In addition, recommended temperatures have changed over the past few years and there has been a contradiction in regulations. Currently, there are no substantiated values of the design average annual temperatures of the heat carrier in the heating network, taking into account climatological data. Results. For the design temperatures of the temperature graphs of the central quality regulation95 / 70--150 / 70 for the settlements of the territory of the central federal district, presented in the latest edition of building climatology, the values of the average annual water temperatures in the supply line of the heating network have been determined. The averaged values of temperatures for the considered temperature graphs are obtained.Conclusions. For most of the temperature graphs, significant discrepancies have been established between the calculated values of the average annual water temperatures in the heating network and those recommended by the JV “Heating Networks” of the latest edition. The maximum difference is observed for the 150/70 graph and is 12 ° C.
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Fuzhi, BI, and YUAN Youshen. "Average Annual Temperature Changes in the Holocene in China." Acta Geologica Sinica - English Edition 72, no. 3 (2010): 321–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-6724.1998.tb00410.x.
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Khorchani, Makki, Natalia Martin-Hernandez, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, et al. "Average annual and seasonal Land Surface Temperature, Spanish Peninsular." Journal of Maps 14, no. 2 (2018): 465–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17445647.2018.1500316.
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Thapa, A., A. Silwal, S. P. Gautam, C. K. Nepal, S. Bhattarai, and D. Timsina. "Surface air temperature trends in Kathmandu Valley for 2011-2017." BIBECHANA 18, no. 2 (2021): 95–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v18i2.29495.
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In this study, we reviewed the maximum and minimum temperature trends of the Kathmandu valley over the period of 2011-2017. In addition, the average monthly temperature trends were studied annually for the same period, with the data made available from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of Nepal. The annual temperature trended in the same direction, with winter temperatures being lower and summer temperatures being higher. The annual average minimum and maximum air temperature trends were found to be slightly rising at 0.097˚C/year and 0.04˚C/year, respectively. The mean air temperature in Kathmandu valley is increasing at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius per year, with 2016 being the warmest year and 2012 being the least warm, with annual mean temperatures of 19.82˚C and 19.32˚C, respectively. The temperature difference is much smaller in the summer (less than ~12˚C) than in the winter. 
 BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 95-104
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Mia, Md Younus, Md Ramjan Ali, and Shimul Roy. "Comparison of climatic variables among different climatic sub-regions of Bangladesh." Bangladesh Journal of Scientific Research 29, no. 1 (2016): 63–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/bjsr.v29i1.29759.
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The study was conducted to compare the rate of change of selective climatic variables such as annual maximum and minimum temperature, annual total rainfall and annual average humidity among the three different climatic sub-regions (Western zone, northwestern zone and north-eastern zone) of Bangladesh. Annual averages of climatic parameters were calculated to analyze the trend lines, variation and change rate of climatic parameter during the study period. Five years moving average rainfall and humidity were also determined. It was observed that change rate of annual maximum temperature and annual average maximum temperature both were highest in north-eastern zone at the rate of 0.048 and 0.046°C per year, respectively. Highest annual minimum temperature change rate (0.003°C per year) was also found in the north-eastern zone but highest annual average minimum temperature change rate (0.034°C per year) was found in the north-western zone. Average annual rainfall was decreasing insignificantly in all the three climatic sub-regions whereas the highest change rate (21.50 mm per year) was observed in the north-eastern zone of Bangladesh. Highest annual average humidity change rate (0.113% per year) was found in the north-western zone of Bangladesh and five years moving average of annual average humidity was increasing at the highest rate of 0.132% per year in the north-western zone of Bangladesh.Bangladesh J. Sci. Res. 29(1): 63-71, June-2016
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Pandžić, Krešo, and Tanja Likso. "Homogeneity of average annual air temperature time series for Croatia." International Journal of Climatology 30, no. 8 (2009): 1215–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1922.
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Китаев, Д. Н., А. Т. Курносов, З. С. Гасанов, and С. О. Харин. "MODELLING ANNUAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN HEAT NETWORKS." НАУЧНЫЙ ЖУРНАЛ СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВА И АРХИТЕКТУРЫ, no. 4(60) (December 29, 2020): 43–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.36622/vstu.2020.60.4.004.
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Состояние проблемы. При проведении проектных расчетов тепловых сетей (в частности, расчетов толщины теплоизоляционных конструкций, удлинений при тепловом расширении, нормативных потерь при транспортировке тепловой энергии) потребителю часто приходится пользоваться проектными значениями среднегодовых температур теплоносителя, указанными в зависимости от проектного температурного графика в современных нормативах[18,24]. По мнению ряда исследователей, рекомендуемые значения среднегодовых температур теплоносителя не учитывают климатологические характеристики, и их использование может приводить к значительным ошибкам[1-3]. Кроме того, за последние несколько лет значения рекомендуемых температур изменились, и наблюдается противоречие в нормативах. В настоящее время отсутствуют обоснованные значения проектных среднегодовых температур теплоносителя в тепловой сети, учитывающие климатологические данные. Результаты. Для проектных температурных графиков центрального качественного регулирования 95/70-150/70 для населенных пунктов территории центрального федерального округа, представленных в последней редакции строительной климатологии, определены значения среднегодовых температур воды в подающей магистрали тепловой сети. Получены осредненные значения температур для рассмотренных температурных графиков. Выводы. Для большинства температурных графиков установлены значительные расхождения между полученными расчетными значениями среднегодовых температур воды в тепловой сети и рекомендуемыми СП «Тепловые сети» последней редакции. Максимальная разница наблюдается для графика 150/70 и составляет 12°С. Statement of the problem. When carrying out design calculations of heating networks, in particular, calculating the thickness of thermal insulation structures, thermal elongations during thermal expansion, standard losses during the transportation of thermal energy to the consumer, it is often necessary to use the design values of the average annual temperatures of the coolant indicated depending on the design temperature schedule in modern standards [18, 24]. According to a number of researchers, the recommended values of average annual coolant temperatures do not take into account climatological characteristics and their use can lead to significant errors [1-3]. In addition, recommended temperatures have changed over the past few years and there has been a contradiction in regulations. Currently, there are no substantiated values of the design average annual temperatures of the heat carrier in the heating network taking into account climatological data. Results. For the design temperatures of the temperature graphs of the central quality regulation 95/70-150/70 for the settlements of the territory of the central federal district presented in the latest edition of building climatology the values of the average annual water temperatures in the supply line of the heating network have been determined. The averaged values of temperatures for the considered temperature graphs are obtained. Conclusions. For most of the temperature graphs, significant discrepancies have been established between the calculated values of the average annual water temperatures in the heating network and those recommended by the JV “Heating Networks” of the latest edition. The maximum difference is observed for the 150/70 graph and is 12°C.
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Kirvel, Ivan, Mikhail Kukshinov, and Pavel Kirvel. "The transformation of rivers’ temperature regime downstream of reservoirs." Limnological Review 15, no. 4 (2015): 165–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/limre-2015-0017.
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Abstract The article is dedicated to the problem of the transformation of rivers’ temperature conditions influenced by artificial reservoirs. A quantitative estimation of average water temperatures over ten days, and maximum and average annual water temperatures of regulated rivers downstream of reservoirs was made on the basis of the data analysis of a complete period of instrumental observations of the Republican Hydrometeorological Centre of the Republic of Belarus. It is established that the character and the parameters of the transformation of temperature conditions of the regulated rivers along with morphometric features of the reservoirs are determined by the meteorological conditions of the year and the operating conditions of the water-engineering system. The length of the cooling period effect varies from 20 days downstream of small reservoirs to 50-70 days downstream of small and average size reservoirs. The warming effect is less significant by temperature, but lasts longer and is appreciable around 200-240 days in a year. An increase in the average annual water temperature up to 0.5°C and a decrease in maximum temperature down to 1.1°C are observed in the tail-water of average size storage pools. Small size storage pools demonstrate an annual increase in annual water temperature up to 0.3°C and a decrease in maximum temperature down to 0.3°C. Small size water pools show an increase both in annual water temperature up to 0.5°C and maximum water temperature up to 0.3°C. Typical changes in temperature conditions of rivers are observed for a distance of 130 kilometres below the dam of average size water pools, along 70 kilometres in small water pools and along 30 kilometres in tiny ones.
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Pekarova, Pavla, Dana Halmova, Pavol Miklanek, Milan Onderka, Jan Pekar, and Peter Skoda. "Is the Water Temperature of the Danube River at Bratislava, Slovakia, Rising?" Journal of Hydrometeorology 9, no. 5 (2008): 1115–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jhm948.1.
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Abstract This paper aims to reveal the annual regime, time series, and long-term water temperature trends of the Danube River at Bratislava, Slovakia, between the years 1926 and 2005. First, the main factors affecting the river’s water temperature were identified. Using multiple regression techniques, an empirical relationship is derived between monthly water temperatures and monthly atmospheric temperatures at Vienna (Hohe Warte), Austria, monthly discharge of the Danube, and some other factors as well. In the second part of the study, the long-term trends in the annual time series of water temperature were identified. The following series were evaluated: 1) The average annual water temperature (To) (determined as an arithmetic average of daily temperatures in the Danube at Bratislava), 2) the weighted annual average temperature values (Toυ) (determined from the daily temperatures weighted by the daily discharge rates at Bratislava), and 3) the average heat load (Zt) at the Bratislava station. In the long run, the To series is rising; however, the trend of the weighted long-term average temperature values, Toυ, is near zero. This result indicates that the average heat load of the Danube water did not change during the selected period of 80 yr. What did change is the interannual distribution of the average monthly discharge. Over the past 25 yr, an elevated runoff of “cold” water (increase of the December–April runoff) and a lower runoff of “warm” water (decrease of the river runoff during the summer months of June–August) were observed.
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Eensaar, Agu. "Peculiarities of Long-Term Changes in Air Temperatures Near the Ground Surface in the Central Baltic Coastal Area." Climate 7, no. 2 (2019): 22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli7020022.
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The peculiarities of the long-term change of the annual and monthly average air temperatures until 2017 in five cities of the coastal area of the Central Baltic region—Stockholm, Tallinn, Riga, Helsinki, and Saint Petersburg—were studied. The anomalies of the annual and monthly average air temperatures in relation to the average characteristics 1961–1990 were analyzed. The trends in the air temperature changes during 1980–2017, which come to 0.5 °C per ten years, have been found in the cities of the Central Baltic coastal area. The average air temperature in the Central Baltic cities has grown faster than the global and northern hemisphere. For the longer period of 1850–2017, the average annual rise of air temperature was within the range of 0.1 °C per ten years. The rise in temperature in different months is different, and the rise of the of the average temperature in the summer period has not occurred (at a significance level of 0.05). With the analysis of the frequency distributions of the average annual air temperatures and Welch’s t-test, it is demonstrated that the air temperature (at a significance level of 0.05) has risen in all the months only in Saint Petersburg during 1901–2017 in comparison to the 19th century. There has been no reliable rise of the air temperature during the century in February and from June to September in Riga, from June to October in Helsinki, from June to September in Stockholm, and in August and September in Tallinn. It was found that the average air temperature trends have a certain annual course. The air temperature has risen most in March and April, reaching 0.09 °C (Stockholm, Tallinn) up to 0.23 °C (Saint Petersburg) per ten years. From June to September, the rise of air temperature is considerably lower, remaining below 0.04 °C per ten years. The changes in air temperature are small during the summer and mid-winter; the air temperature has significantly risen in autumn and spring.
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Dashkevich, L. V. "REGIONAL ASPECTS OF AVERAGE ANNUAL WATER TEMPERATURE AND AVERAGE SALINITY OF THE SEA OF AZOV." ECOLOGY ECONOMY INFORMATICS. Geoinformation technologies and space monitoring 2, no. 3 (2018): 14–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.23885/2500-123x-2018-2-3-14-20.
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Mohammad Natheer, Ammar, Basil Ibraheem Ahmad, and Abdul Kadir Shakir Abdula Shakir Abdula. "A Study on Monthly and Annual Average Temperature Variations in Mosul." JOURNAL OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE 26, no. 4 (2013): 88–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.33899/edusj.2013.89969.
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van Wijngaarden, W. A., and A. Mouraviev. "Seasonal and Annual Trends in Australian Minimum/Maximum Daily Temperatures." Open Atmospheric Science Journal 10, no. 1 (2016): 39–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874282301610010039.
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Seasonal and annual trends in Australian minimum and maximum temperatures were studied. Records of daily minimum and maximum temperatures averaged over each month, extending as far back as 1856 were examined. Over 1/2 million monthly temperature values were retrieved from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 299 stations. Each station had an average of 89 years of observations. Significant step discontinuities affected the maximum temperature data in the 19th century when Stevenson screens were installed. The temperature trends were found after such spurious data were removed and averaged over all stations. The resulting trend in the minimum (maximum) daily temperature was 0.67 ± 0.19 (0.58 ± 0.26) oC per century for the period 1907-2014. Decadal fluctuations were evident in the maximum daily temperature with most of the increase occurring in the late 20th century. The minimum and maximum daily temperature trends were also found for the various seasons. The minimum daily temperature trend exceeded the maximum daily temperature trend for all seasons except during June to August. The largest increases in minimum temperature as well as the smallest maximum temperature increases were found for the region north of 30 oS latitude and east of 140 oE longitude. There was also evidence that urban stations had greater increases in maximum daily temperature than those located in a rural environment.
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Maksymenko, N. V., Yu V. Medvedeva, and N. I. Cherkashyna. "Dynamics of the temperature regime of the North Atlantic coastal zone as an indicator of changes in the system of thermohaline circulation." Journal of Geology, Geography and Geoecology 27, no. 3 (2019): 478–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.15421/111871.
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The purpose of the article is to analyze dynamics of the temperature regime of the surface layer of the atmosphere in the coastal zone of the North Atlantic as an indicator of changes in the thermohaline circulation system. In carrying out the research, comparative-geographical and historical statistical methods of the analysis of meteorological series were used. For research, 20 control points of the eastern part of the United States and Western Europe, which are located along the flow course of the Gulf Stream, are selected. In the selected points, by means of the linear trend method, the regularities of the dynamics of the mean annual, average maximum and average minimum temperatures of the atmospheric surface layer for the period from 1973 to 2013 have been established. The results of the study showed that, contrary to the hypothesis of fall in temperature in Europe, an increase in average annual and average maximum temperatures is observed in all control points of the region - the range means the linear trend is from 0.9 to 4.4 o F and from 0.3 to 3.8 o F respectively. In most US control points, the average annual temperature rises from 0.1 to 3 o F and the average maximum temperature rises from 0.2 to 2.1 oF. For four points of the United States the decrease in the values of the linear trend of average annual temperatures is from -0.4 to -1.2 o F; for three points - a decrease in average maximum temperatures is from -1.3 to -1.9 o F. At 9 control points in the USA and 8 control points in Europe, the average values of the minimum temperatures in the research period increased - in the USA, from 0.1 to 3.1 o F; in Europe from 0.3 to 4.6 o F. The opposite dynamics in the regions is observed for the values of the temperature amplitude. In most control points in Europe, the difference between the average maximum and the average minimum annual temperatures ranged from 0.4 to 6.6 o F; in most US destinations, on the contrary, a decrease in the amplitude value from -1.6 to -3 oF is observed. The analysis of the temperature dynamics of the surface layer of the atmosphere indicates the prevailing warming processes in the coastalzone of the North Atlantic, more intense for control points in Western Europe. The obtained data give grounds for refuting hypotheses of the presence of critical deviations in the thermohaline circulation system of the Atlantic Ocean, which could lead to a cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. The change in the amplitude values is a manifestation of increasing instability of the climate, which is likely to remain in the future with a general increase in the mean annual temperature in the region.
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Mucha, Bohdan, Iryna Bulavenko, and Oksana Rodych. "Air temperature in Southern Roztochia." Visnyk of the Lviv University. Series Geography, no. 49 (December 30, 2015): 239–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vgg.2015.49.8637.
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The demonstration and analysis of the monthly and annual average air temperatures in Southern Roztochia for last 46 years are proposed. The meteorological data of the Roztochia landscapegeophysical station (RLGS) of Ivan Franko National University of Lviv have served as the starting material for this publication. The long-term value of the average air temperature in RLGS has been defined. The average temperature warming by 2 °C has occurred from 1970 to 2000 and the amplitude of fluctuations of average temperatures has increased since 2000. The fact of a gradual warming trend in the region Roztochia and the adjacent Small Polissia was confirmed as an attribute of the consequences of global warming and drainage reclamation during the XX century. The graphs for annual average, maximum and minimum air temperatures for last 46 years were concluded for the duration of 5 years at the seasons. The coldest period of research is the years 1969–1989 and the warmest ones are the years since 2000 and especially 2015. The parameters of extreme warming in 2015 were fixed in agriculture and water management. We are warning about the possibility of aridization of the territory as a result of the trend of warming. The ways of preventing of regional warming due to reducing the activity of drainage reclamation systems, conservation of forest and meadow vegetation are suggested. Key words: average air temperature, regional warming, extreme air temperature, Southern Roztochia.
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Bai, Bing, Xue Jun Chen, and Jie Yu. "A Study of Spatial Interpolation of GanSu Air Temperature Based on arcGIS." Advanced Materials Research 518-523 (May 2012): 1359–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.518-523.1359.
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We analyzed the relationship between the average annual temperature data of 80 meteorology stations in 2009 and, such as, the latitude and longitude, the height above sea level in GanSu. It is found that there was a good linear relationship (r2=0.908). The average annual temperatures data all over GanSu is analyzed by the method of multiple linear regression analysis, and use application of geostatistical analysis module of ArcGIS software, conducting the average annual temperatures of meteorology stations spatial interpolation. Comparing the both cases, it is the direct use of the calculation results of the regression equation and consider the space residual error. The verified result is: the method of interpolation Combined with the space residual error is more accurate, the correlation coefficient of interpolation calculating value and actual survey value is r2=0.972.The results show that the method of interpolation Combined with the space residual error can improve the accuracy of the temperature spatial interpolation.
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Pokladníková, H., J. Rožnovský, and T. Středa. "Evaluation of soil temperatures at agroclimatological station Pohořelice." Soil and Water Research 3, No. 4 (2008): 223–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/2092-swr.
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Soil temperatures were analysed for the climatological station Pohořelice during the period of 1961–2000. According to the agroclimatic zoning, this region is a part of warm macroarea, mainly warm area, mainly dry subarea, and a district of mainly cold winter. The average annual air temperature is 9°C and the average year precipitation total is 475 mm. For the characterisation of the soil temperature were used the average monthly soil temperature determined from daily averages, maximal monthly soil temperature determined on the basis of daily maximums, and minimal monthly value determined on the basis of daily minimums. In the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, the soil temperature was measured in the observation terms at 7:00, 14:00 and 21:00 local mean time. These temperature characteristics were assessed for the depths of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 cm. The longterm average annual temperature for the depths measured varies from 10.0°C (at 20 cm) to 10.4°C (at 100 cm). From the longterm viewpoint, the warmest month for the depths of 5, 10, and 20 cm is July, the coldest one is January, and for the depths of 50 and 100 cm the warmest month is August and the coldest one is February. For the classification of single months, the average monthly soil temperature for the respective month was compared with the longterm average soil temperature of 1961–2000. According to the average monthly soil temperature and its standard deviation, the months of the evaluated period were divided into seven categories: thermally normal months, warm months, very warm months, extraordinary warm months, cold months, very cold months, and extraordinary cold months.
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Hua, Wei, Zouxin Lin, Qiuyue Wu, Yao Hu, Guangzhou Fan, and Lihua Zhu. "Optimal average annual mean surface air temperature for East Asia since 1901." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 136, no. 3-4 (2018): 1397–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2570-x.
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Loua, René Tato, Hassan Bencherif, Nkanyiso Mbatha, et al. "Study on Temporal Variations of Surface Temperature and Rainfall at Conakry Airport, Guinea: 1960–2016." Climate 7, no. 7 (2019): 93. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli7070093.
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The monthly averaged data time series of temperatures and rainfall without interruption of Conakry Airport (9.34° N 13.37° W, Guinea) from 1960 to 2016 were used. Inter-annual and annual changes in temperature and rainfall were investigated. Then, different models: Mann-Kendall Test, Multi-Linear-Regression analysis, Theil-Sen’s slope estimates and wavelet analysis where used for trend analysis and the dependency with these climate forcings. Results showed an increase in temperature with semi-annual and annual cycles. A sharp and abrupt rise in the temperature in 1998 was found. The results of study have shown increasing trends for temperature (about 0.21°/year). A decrease in rainfall (about −8.14 mm/year) is found since the end of 1960s and annual cycle with a maximum value of about 1118.3 mm recorded in August in average. The coherence between the two parameters and climate indices: El Niño 3.4, Atlantic Meridional Mode, Tropical Northern Atlantic and Atlantic Niño, were investigated. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated research efforts in climate parameters variations to improve knowledge in climate change.
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Marsitha Barung, Femmy, Wendel Jan Pattipeilohy, and Robi Muharsyah. "ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON ANNUAL TREND AND CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE IN MANOKWARI, WEST PAPUA." Jurnal Analisis Kebijakan Kehutanan 18, no. 1 (2021): 45–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.20886/jakk.2021.18.1.45-57.
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A simple climate change assessment is carried out on annual air temperatures including average, maximum and minimum temperatures in Rendani, Manokwari for the period of 1993-2019. Parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Sen's Slope Estimator (SSE)are used to analyze trends and index numbers for analyzing the temperature changes. Homogenity test is performed using double mass curve and assumption of normality in the distribution is also investigated to meet the requirements of the linear regression trend test. There as a significant upward trend in the mean and minimum temperature with a slope of 0.029ºC/year and 0.069ºC/year, respectively. Meanwhile, the maximum temperature test shows no trend with a slope of 0.009ºC/year. Analysis of temperature changes using index numbers shows an increase in annual average temperature of 2.8% or 0.7°C, maximum temperature of 1.2% or 0.4°C, and minimum temperature of 3.1% or 0.8°C. The increase in annual air temperature in Manokwari City can generally be caused by several factors such as El Nino phenomenon, urbanization, population growth, and deforestation.
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DAS, LIPON CHANDRA, and ZHIHUA ZHANG. "ANNUAL AND SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND RAINFALL IN BANGLADESH, 1989–2018." International Journal of Big Data Mining for Global Warming 03, no. 01 (2021): 2150004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2630534821500042.
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Based on temperature and rainfall recorded at 34 meteorological stations in Bangladesh during 1989–2018, the trends of yearly average maximum and minimum temperatures have been found to be increasing at the rates of 0.025∘C and 0.018∘C per year. Analysis of seasonal average maximum temperature showed increasing trend for all seasons except the late autumn season. The increasing trend was particularly significant for summer, rainy and autumn seasons. Seasonal average minimum temperature data also showed increasing trends for all seasons. The trend of yearly average rainfall has been found to be decreasing at a rate of 0.014[Formula: see text]mm per year in the same period; especially, for most of the meteorological stations the rainfall demonstrates an increasing trend for rainy season and a decreasing trend in the winter season. It means that in Bangladesh dry periods became drier and wet periods became wetter.
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O'Brien, Gary R., Darrell S. Kaufman, Warren D. Sharp, Viorel Atudorei, Roderic A. Parnell, and Laura J. Crossey. "Oxygen isotope composition of annually banded modern and mid-Holocene travertine and evidence of paleomonsoon floods, Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA." Quaternary Research 65, no. 3 (2006): 366–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2005.12.001.
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AbstractHolocene and modern travertine formed in spring-fed Havasu Creek of the Grand Canyon, Arizona, was studied to determine the factors governing its oxygen-isotope composition. Analysis of substrate-grown travertine indicates that calculated calcite-formation temperatures compare favorably with measured water temperatures, and include silt-rich laminae deposited by monsoon-driven floods. Ancient spring-pool travertine is dated by U-series at 7380 ± 110 yr and consists of 14 travertine-silt couplets of probable annual deposition. One hundred eighty high-resolution δ18O analyses of this mid-Holocene sample average −11.0‰ PDB. The average value for modern travertine is ∼0.5‰ lower, perhaps because mid-Holocene temperature was higher or there was proportionally greater summer recharge. δ18O cyclicity in the mid-Holocene travertine has average amplitude of 1.9 ± 0.5‰ PDB, slightly less than the inferred modern-day annual temperature range of Havasu Creek. The annual temperature range might have been reduced during the 14-yr interval compared to present, although other non-temperature factors could account for the muted annual variation. Silt-rich laminae within isotopically lower calcite in the modern and mid-Holocene travertine verifies the seasonal resolution of both samples, and suggests that similar temperature-precipitation conditions, as well as monsoon-generated summer floods, prevailed in the mid-Holocene as they do throughout the Grand Canyon region today.
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Krarti, M., C. Lopez-Alonzo, D. E. Claridge, and J. F. Kreider. "Analytical Model to Predict Annual Soil Surface Temperature Variation." Journal of Solar Energy Engineering 117, no. 2 (1995): 91–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2870881.
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An analytical model is developed to predict the annual variation of soil surface temperature from readily available weather data and soil thermal properties. The time variation is approximated by a first harmonic function characterized by an average, an amplitude, and a phase lag. A parametric analysis is presented to determine the effect of various factors such as evaporation, soil absorptivity, and soil convective properties on soil surface temperature. A comparison of the model predictions with experimental data is presented. The comparative analysis indicates that the simplified model predicts soil surface temperatures within ten percent of measured data for five locations.
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Pan, Shun, Xiangwei Zhao, and Yaojie Yue. "Spatiotemporal changes of NDVI and correlation with meteorological factors in northern china from 1985-2015." E3S Web of Conferences 131 (2019): 01040. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201913101040.
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The NDVI in northern china is vulnerable and is greatly affected by meteorological factors. In this study, the correlation between changes of NDVI and the major meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation) in northern China in the past 30 years with Trend analysis and partial correlation analysis methods. The results show that: (1) In the recent 30 years, the annual average NDVI in northern China shows an upward trend of volatility, with an annual growth rate of 0.0015, and the overall vegetation coverage increases. (2) In the context of global warming, the average annual temperature in the research area increased significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 0.0353, while the average annual growth rate of precipitation was not significant, with an average annual growth rate of 0.1591. (3) NDVI has a higher correlation with air temperature in high altitude alpine and plateau areas, and a higher correlation with precipitation in grassland and desert grassland areas.
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Лапина, Лариса Эдуардовна, and Ирина Леонидовна Григорьева. "ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF WEATHER STATIONS STARITSA AND TVER OVER A LONG PERIOD." Вестник Тверского государственного университета. Серия: География и геоэкология, no. 3(31) (September 21, 2020): 57–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.26456/2226-7719-2020-3-59-80.
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Анализируется региональная изменчивость среднемноголетних характеристик температуры воздуха в приземном слое и осадков по данным метеостанций в Старице и Твери, расположенных в бассейне верхней Волги. Среднегодовые и среднемесячные значения характеристик проанализированы с использованием метода скользящего среднего. Рассмотрен 30-летний период осреднения. Проанализированы данные по метеостанции Старица с 1962 по 2017 гг., а по метеостанции Тверь - с 1944 по 2017 гг. Для Старицы использованы суточные данные, для Твери - только среднемесячные. Данные температуры приземного слоя воздуха для каждого года наблюдений аппроксимировались простой синусоидальной функцией. Показано, что среднемноголетние значения амплитуд годовых колебаний для обеих метеостанций имеют тенденцию к снижению, а среднегодовые значения температур - тенденцию к повышению. Методом наименьших квадратов найдены параметры уравнений прямых, описывающих изменчивость среднемноголетних величин амплитуд годовых колебаний и среднемноголетних годовых температур воздуха. Сравнивались периоды наблюдений с 1961 по 1990 гг. и с 1991 по 2017 гг. для Твери и Старицы. Приводятся статистические характеристики температуры воздуха и осадков для двух периодов, сопоставлены значения метеостанций в Старице и Твери. Показано, что существенная разница между значениями температуры воздуха для обеих метеостанций наблюдается только во втором периоде. Среднемноголетние годовые суммы атмосферных осадков в этих городах имеют тенденцию к повышению со средней скоростью 18 мм/год. Месячные суммы атмосферных осадков однозначной тенденции, одинаковой для всех месяцев, не имеют. Скорость роста среднемноголетних значений температуры воздуха в Твери оценивается в 0.04˚С/год, в Старице - 0.03˚С/год. Regional variability of the average annual characteristics of air temperature in the surface layer and precipitation is analyzed based on data from weather stations in Staritsa and Tver, located in the Upper Volga basin. The average annual and average monthly values of the characteristics are analyzed using the moving average method. The 30-year averaging period is considered. Data on the Staritsa weather station from 1962 to 2017 and on the Tver weather station from 1944 to 2017 were analyzed. For Staritsa daily data were used, while for Tver only the average monthly data was used. The surface air temperature data for each year of observations was approximated by a simple sinusoidal function. It is shown that the average annual values of the amplitudes of annual fluctuations for both weather stations tend to decrease, and the average annual values of temperatures tend to increase. The parameters of the linear equations describing the variability of the average annual values of the amplitudes of annual fluctuations and the average annual air temperatures are found using the least squares method. We compared the observation periods from 1961 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2017 for Tver and Staritsa. Statistical characteristics of air temperature and precipitation for both periods are given. Values for both weather stations are compared. It is shown that a significant difference between the air temperature values for both weather stations is observed only in the second period. The average annual precipitation in both cities tends to increase at an average rate of 18 mm /year. Monthly precipitation totals do not have the same trend for all months. The rate of growth of the average annual air temperature in Tver is estimated at 0.04˚C/year, in Staritsa - 0.03˚C/year.
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Seip, Knut. "Temperature, length of growth season and phytoplankton abundance in the Gulf of Maine." Marine and Freshwater Research 66, no. 9 (2015): 759. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf14034.
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I show that the relation between annual average phytoplankton concentration (mg Chl-a m–3) and in situ sea surface temperature (SST) is positive (Chl-a=~0.5×SST, r=0.8, P<0.001) at an average temperature of 11°C (range 10–12°C) in the Gulf of Maine. However, within-seasonal observations (for 2005–09) were predominantly negatively associated. For the first relationship that describes annual averages, the extension of the growth season with increasing temperature may be an important factor. I show that an increase of 1°C starts the growing season 8 days earlier and lengthens the season by 13 days (for temperature >10°C). Tentative calculations suggest that the increased length matches the increase in annual phytoplankton concentration. For the second relationship that describes within-seasonal relationships, I suggest that warmer water during late summer increases stratification and limits nutrient supply to the upper productive layer.
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Graumlich, Lisa J., and Linda B. Brubaker. "Reconstruction of Annual Temperature (1590–1979) for Longmire, Washington, Derived from Tree Rings." Quaternary Research 25, no. 2 (1986): 223–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90059-1.
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Annual growth records from trees at timberline in the Cascade Range of Washington are correlated with variations in temperature and snow depth and used to reconstruct climatic variation in the past. Response surfaces indicate that growth of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) and subalpine larch (Larix lyallii) is positively correlated with summer (July to September) temperature and negatively correlated with spring (March) snow depth when snow depth is at or below average. During years of above average snow depth, temperature has little effect on mountain hemlock but has a negative effect on growth in subalpine larch. These interactions make it difficult to reconstruct these climatic variables separately using standard methods. Mean annual temperature values, which combine information on both summer temperature and spring snow depth, were estimated from a regression model that reconstructs past temperature at Longmire, Washington, as a function of larch and hemlock tree-ring chronologies. The reconstruction of mean annual temperature shows temperatures between 1590 and 1900 to be approximately 1°C lower than those of the 20th century. Only during a short period from 1650 to 1690 did temperatures approach 20th-century values.
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Eensaar, Agu. "Temporal and Spatial Variability of Air Temperatures in Estonia during 1756–2014." Journal of Climatology 2016 (January 19, 2016): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9426791.
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The change in the statistical and temporal parameters of air temperatures in the Estonian cities, that is, Tallinn and Tartu, was analyzed for two centuries. The results showed that the change of air temperature in Estonia exceeded 0.5°C per ten years for the time 1979–2012. For the longer period, that is, 1880–2012, the average annual rise in the air temperature was within the range of 0.1°C per ten years. The analysis of frequency distributions of the average annual air temperatures and Welch’s t-test demonstrated the considerable rise in air temperature (the significance level of 0.05) in Estonia, which took place in 1901–2014 and was witnessed only in the months from November to April. However, no significant rise in air temperature was detected in Estonia from May to October.
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Yan, Bo, Ziqiang Xia, Feng Huang, Lidan Guo, and Xiao Zhang. "Climate Change Detection and Annual Extreme Temperature Analysis of the Amur River Basin." Advances in Meteorology 2016 (2016): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6268938.
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This paper aims to detect climate change points and compare the extreme temperature changes with the average-value changes in the Amur River basin. The daily air temperatures of 44 stations in the Amur River basin were collected from April 1, 1954, to March 31, 2013. The change points for annual mean and extreme temperature in 44 individual stations and their average were detected by the Mann-Kendall test, respectively. The annual mean temperature changed during 1980s in terms of increased mean value and relative stable standard deviation. The annual maximum temperature from 31 stations mostly located in the central and northwest basin changed significantly, and their change points occurred mainly in 1990s. For the annual minimum temperature, 32 stations mainly located in the central basin had significant changes. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to the postchange point subseries of annual extreme temperature and the parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The 10/50/100-year return levels were estimated by the method of profile likelihood. For the areas in the central and Northwestern basin, the probability of occurrence of hot extremes increased, while the occurrence probability of cold extremes was decreased in the central basin under climate change.
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Easterling, David R., Grant Goodge, Matthew J. Menne, Claude N. Williams, and David Levinson. "A Comparison of Local and Regional Trends in Surface and Lower-Tropospheric Temperatures in Western North Carolina." Earth Interactions 9, no. 28 (2005): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/ei161.1.
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Abstract Temperature time series for stations in western North Carolina are used to evaluate the potential for an urban signal in the local temperature trend, and to compare a homogeneous temperature record from a mountain-top station to two versions of the lower-tropospheric, satellite-derived temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU). Results regarding the urban signal are in agreement with the conclusion from previous investigations that after a location is urbanized, the local temperature trend is consistent with trends derived from surrounding, more rural stations. With respect to the mountain top and lower-tropospheric temperature comparison, the magnitudes of the two MSU-derived trends for the western North Carolina area are closer to the average annual minimum temperature trend than to the annual average maximum temperature trend.
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Margaryan, Varduhi, Gennady Tsibulskii, and Ksenia Raevich. "About the features of the time course of the average annual air temperature in the territory of the Debed river basin (Armenia)." E3S Web of Conferences 223 (2020): 03009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022303009.
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The article examines the features of the time course of the average annual air temperature in the Debed river basin in Armenia. As a starting material, we used daily data of actual observations of the temperature of the surface air layer for a year in the Debed river basin. The study was carried out at 6 meteorological stations in the Debed river basin based on long-term observation data series from 1930 to the present (2018). Analysis of the trend lines of temporal changes in air temperatures shows that at all meteorological stations currently operating on the territory of the basin, there is mainly a tendency for an increase in temperatures of annual values.
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Reid, John. "There is no significant trend in global average temperature." Energy & Environment 28, no. 3 (2016): 302–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0958305x16686447.
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The HadCRUT4 time series of 166 annual values of global average temperature was analysed both deterministically and stochastically and the results compared. The deterministic model comprised the sum of a linear trend and a multi-decadal oscillation fitted by ordinary least squares regression. The stochastic model was an ARMA(1,2) model with a drift term included. The deterministic model showed a linear trend of 0.5℃ per century while the stochastic model showed no significant drift. In both cases, the residuals were tested for self-correlation using standard statistical tests. The residuals from the deterministic model were significantly self-correlated whereas those from the stochastic model were not. We conclude that the stochastic model was a much better fit to the data and that the apparent linear trend of the deterministic model was spurious and a consequence of performing a regression in which time was the explanatory variable.
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Santos, Francisco L., and Richard H. Hawkins. "Generalized Mediterranean Annual Water Yield Model: Grunsky’s Equation and Long-Term Average Temperature." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 16, no. 11 (2011): 874–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000402.
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Kim*, Jong-hun, and Hae-Kwan Cheong. "Impact of Daily Average Temperature on Annual Incidence of Scrub Typhus for Predicting." ISEE Conference Abstracts 2014, no. 1 (2014): 2154. http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/isee.2014.p2-349.
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Fritts, H. C., and J. M. Lough. "An estimate of average annual temperature variations for North America, 1602 to 1961." Climatic Change 7, no. 2 (1985): 203–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00140506.
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Chen, Yi-Ru, Bofu Yu, and Graham Jenkins. "Secular Variation in Rainfall Intensity and Temperature in Eastern Australia." Journal of Hydrometeorology 14, no. 4 (2013): 1356–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-12-0110.1.
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Abstract It is generally assumed that rainfall intensity will increase with temperature increase, irrespective of the underlying changes to the average rainfall. This study documents and investigates long-term trends in rainfall intensities, annual rainfall, and mean maximum and minimum temperatures using the Mann–Kendall trend test for nine sites in eastern Australia. Relationships between rainfall intensities at various durations and 1) annual rainfall and 2) the mean maximum and minimum temperatures were investigated. The results showed that the mean minimum temperature has increased significantly at eight out of the nine sites in eastern Australia. Changes in annual rainfall are likely to be associated with changes in rainfall intensity at the long duration of 48 h. Overall, changes in rainfall intensity at short durations (&lt;1 h) positively correlate with changes in the mean maximum temperature, but there is no significant correlation with the mean minimum temperature and annual rainfall. Additionally, changes in rainfall intensity at longer durations (≥1 h) positively correlate with changes in the mean annual rainfall, but not with either mean maximum or minimum temperatures for the nine sites investigated.
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Al-Azzawi, Thair. "30 Years Climate Change Impact on Weather Elements and Green Coverage: GIS and Remote Sensing Geo-Environmental Case Study in Jordan." Iraqi Geological Journal 54, no. 1D (2021): 57–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.46717/igj.54.1d.5ms-2021-04-25.
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This study deals with climate change and its geo-environmental impact in Jordan for thirty years period (1982-2012). It comprised the building of a geographic information system (GIS) database for the most important basic climatic elements of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. Data is obtained from the Meteorological Department of Jordan for the study period. Digital descriptive and statistical analysis methods for the GIS database are implemented using ArcGIS 10.4 software and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images to forecast that impact on weather elements and green vegetation cover, respectively. Three different criteria are used for analysis and verification to achieve the objectives of the study. The criteria are the average annual minimum and maximum temperature, which is considered the most important criterion for this study, average annual rainfall, and average annual relative humidity. Results showed a speedy increase in the annual rate of the local temperature, particularly since 1990. Despite the local temperatures' average volatility, the increment reached about 1.5-2.0 oC degrees Celsius. An increase in the relative humidity is observed, but with no evident change in the average annual rainfall, both in Jordan's northern and eastern parts. At the same time, there were increases for Jordan's central region during the period 1985-2012. The green vegetation cover area showed a decrease during the studied period 2002-2008 as that is probably due to the evident increase in annual average temperature and evaporation. Results reveal the increase of the greater temperature change region has increased in the northern part of Jordan by eight times for the 1982-2002 period as mentioned in this study. The area of vegetated area decreased to 3725.8 km² in 2008 compared to 9305.5 km² in 2002. The study demonstrated efficiency in applying descriptive and statistical GIS analysis methods on the climatic database, which better understanding of the climate change phenomenon.
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Tashilova, A. A. "Analysis of surface temperature changes in the foothill zone of South Russia on the example of Kislovodsk." REPORTS ADYGE (CIRCASSIAN) INTERNATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 20, no. 3 (2020): 69–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.47928/1726-9946-2020-20-3-69-78.
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Based on the series of surface air temperature (average, absolute maxima, absolute minima) for 1961-2018, obtained from instrumental data from the Kislovodsk station, an analysis of changes in seasonal and annual temperatures is carried out. We obtained averaged values in the base (1961-1990, normal) and modern (1991-2018) periods, the results of the t-test for determining the statistical equality/inequality of temperatures for two sub-periods, as well as characteristics of the distribution shape (asymmetry, kurtosis), the rate of temperature change with the criterion of statistical significance (F-test), the value of the Hurst exponent H for determining the stability of the series. Based on the results of statistical and fractal analysis, it can be concluded about a steady increase in temperatures (with the selection of summer averages, maximum and minimum) in the foothill zone of southern Russia (Kislovodsk).
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Kutta, Evan, and Jason Hubbart. "Changing Climatic Averages and Variance: Implications for Mesophication at the Eastern Edge of North America’s Eastern Deciduous Forest." Forests 9, no. 10 (2018): 605. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f9100605.
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Observed conversion of xerophytic warm genera species to mesophytic cool genera species in North America’s Eastern Deciduous Forest (EDF) suggests species composition is in disequilibrium with recent climatic warming. However, increasing annual average temperatures is an oversimplification of long-term climatic change and the importance of climate variance is often neglected. Seven-year moving averages and standard deviations of annually averaged maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in West Virginia, USA were quantified over a 111-year period of record (1906–2016). Maximum temperatures decreased significantly (−5.3%; p < 0.001), minimum temperatures increased significantly (7.7%; p < 0.001), and precipitation increased (2.2%; p = 0.107). Additionally, maximum temperature variance decreased (−17.4%; p = 0.109), minimum temperature variance decreased significantly (−22.6%; p = 0.042), and precipitation variance increased significantly (26.6%; p = 0.004). Results indicate a reduced diurnal temperature range and significant reductions in estimated VPD (10.3%; p < 0.001) that imply increased relative humidity, cloud cover, and soil moisture that may support increasingly abundant mesophytic cool genera species. Feedback mechanisms associated with extensive changes in land use, fire suppression, and browser population may have exacerbated climatic changes. Long-term assessments of changing climatic averages and variance are needed to ensure sustainability of forest ecosystem services, health, and productivity in a swiftly changing climate across the broader EDF region and similar temperate forest ecosystems globally.
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Stont, Z. I., S. E. Navrotskaya, and B. V. Chubarenko. "Long-term tendencies in variations of hydro-meteorological characteristics in Kaliningrad Oblast." Journal of Oceanological Research 48, no. 1 (2020): 45–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.29006/1564-2291.jor-2020.48(1).3.
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The variability (1901–2018) of the average annual values of air temperature, precipitation and sea level with climate averaging (within 30-year climatic periods with a shift of the 30- year “window” in 10-year increments) was analyzed for the coastal zone of the Kaliningrad Oblast (the territory of Russia in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea). It was found that their synchronous increase was identified in the second half of the twentieth century (from the 1950s), intensified in 1961–1990 and, especially, in 1991–2018. This increase provides an apparently high correlation coefficients between the time variations of the 30-year average of these parameters (r = 0.70÷0.95), although in fact this synchronous increase is a response to external (for the region) impact. Considering the link between the variations of 30-year averages around the lines of their positive trends, it was found that this link (a) is extremely weak for precipitation and air temperature (r = 0.10); (b) is weak for sea level and precipitation (r = 0.48); and is rather high for sea level and air temperature (r = 0.85). Analysis of changes in average annual values of these parameters within 30-years periods showed that trends for the air temperature and sea level were extreme in the last period (1991–2018). A more detailed consideration of changes in the average annual temperature, precipitation and sea level over 15-year half-periods within time of growth (1961–2018) showed that the main increase occurred in the first half of this interval, and this increase was slightly slowed down in the second half. The increase in average annual air temperature is mainly due to an increase in temperature in winter and spring, which is associated with a decrease in contrast between seasons. The ambiguity of the contribution of extreme levels to the growth of the average annual level (4.5 cm/decade) was shown for 1961–2018: the positive trends of the minimum level was 3.4 cm/decade, and for the maximum level – 1.2 cm/decade. It was noted that the main increase in the average annual level was due to the growth of the level in the winter period. The reason may be an increase in the number of warm and humid winters due to general climate warming.
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Walters, Glenn D. "Ambient temperature as a moderator of the reactive criminal thinking – violent offending relationship: a multilevel analysis." Journal of Criminological Research, Policy and Practice 7, no. 3 (2021): 233–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcrpp-10-2020-0067.
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Purpose This study aims to investigate the potential moderating effect of the average annual ambient temperature in 24 European countries on the relationship between criminal thinking (reactive vs proactive) and juvenile offending (violent vs property). Design/methodology/approach The average annual ambient temperatures found in 24 European countries were correlated with measures of reactive vs proactive criminal thinking and violent vs property offending in 56,518 students (50.4% female) from the second International Self-Reported Delinquency Study. These data were analyzed using a multilevel model comprising three Level 1 (student) predictors – age, sex and family structure – one Level 2 (country) predictor – ambient temperature – and two outcome measures – a reactive: proactive criminal thinking index (RPI) and a violent: property offending index (VPI). Findings The RPI and VPI correlated significantly with the Level 1 predictors, and the annual ambient temperatures from these 24 countries (Level 2 predictor) correlated positively with RPI and VPI and moderated the effect of reactive criminal thinking (RCT) on violent offending. Practical implications These findings indicate that ambient temperature correlates with violent/aggressive offending after the effects of property/non-aggressive offending have been controlled and suggest that ambient temperature may moderate the relationship between RCT and violent offending by affecting the decision-making process. Originality/value The contribution made by this study to the literature is that it illustrates how a macro-level influence in the form of average annual temperature can impact on micro-level processes in the form of criminal thinking and violent behavior.
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Gunawardhana, L. N., and G. A. Al-Rawas. "Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in Muscat, Oman." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 364 (September 16, 2014): 57–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-364-57-2014.
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Abstract. Changes in frequency and intensity of weather events often result in more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. In Oman, changes in precipitation and temperature have already been detected, although a comprehensive analysis to determine long-term trends is yet to be conducted. We analysed daily precipitation and temperature records in Muscat, the capital city of Oman, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices, defined in the RClimDex software package, were derived from the longest available daily series (precipitation over the period 1977–2011 and temperature over the period 1986–2011). Results showed significant changes in temperature extremes associated with cooling. Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX), on average, decreased by 1°C (0.42°C/10 year). Similarly, the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TN) decreased by 1.5°C (0.61°C/10 year), which, on average, cooled at a faster rate than the maximum temperature. Consequently, the annual count of days when TX > 45°C (98th percentile) decreased from 8 to 3, by 5 days. Similarly, the annual count of days when TN < 15°C (2nd percentile) increased from 5 to 15, by 10 days. Annual total precipitation averaged over the period 1977–2011 is 81 mm, which shows a tendency toward wetter conditions with a 6 mm/10 year rate. There is also a significant tendency for stronger precipitation extremes according to many indices. The contribution from very wet days to the annual precipitation totals steadily increases with significance at 75% level. When The General Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution is fitted to annual maximum 1-day precipitation, the return level of a 10-year return period in 1995–2011 was estimated to be 95 mm. This return level in the recent decade is about 70% higher than the return level for the period of 1977–1994. These results indicate that the long-term wetting signal apparent in total precipitation can be attributed largely to the increases in extreme precipitation in recent decades.
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Evans, CR, APM Lockwood, and AJ Evans. "Associations between sea temperature, catch per unit of fishing effort, and yield in the Bermuda spiny lobster fishery, 1975-1989." Marine and Freshwater Research 46, no. 5 (1995): 809. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9950809.
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Results of graphical analyses of annual records of catch, effort and sea temperature indicate empirical quadratic associations between industry catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE) in Bermudan spiny lobster (Panulirus argus and P. guttatus) fisheries and the annual average sea temperature at Hamilton Harbour, Bermuda. CPUE and yield of P. argus and of P. guttatus were each associated by quadratic expressions with the annual average sea temperature of the Bermuda Platform. Annual growth and survival of late juvenile P. argus and P. guttatus into the fishable stock at Bermuda is controlled in a quadratic fashion chiefly by sea temperature with a six-month lag. The optimum annual average sea temperature for the survival and growth of late benthic juvenile P. argus into the fishery stock was 23.6 � 0.2�C (mean � s.e.), and the comparable optimum for P. guttatus juvenile recruitment was 24.1 � 0.1�C. The maximum equilibrium catch of P. guttatus lobsters on Bermuda Platform was estimated at approximately 33 000 lobsters from quadratic regression of yield on fishing effort.
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Eensaar, Agu. "Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air Temperature Near the Ground Surface in the Central Baltic Area from 2005 to 2019." Atmosphere 12, no. 1 (2020): 60. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010060.
Full textAbstract:
In this study, we analyzed the changes in the average daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual surface air temperatures based on the temperature data obtained from seven stations (1 January 2005–31 December 2019; 15 years) belonging to the central Baltic area (Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki, Narva, Pärnu, Tartu, and Võru). The statistical analysis revealed that there was a strong correlation between the daily average surface air temperature of the studied cities (range: 0.95–0.99). We analyzed the frequency distribution of the average surface air temperatures in addition to the Kruskal–Wallis and Dunn’s tests (significance level of 0.05) to demonstrate that the difference in air temperatures between Narva, Tallinn, Tartu, and Stockholm are critical. The Welch’s t-test (significance level 0.05), used to study the differences in the average monthly air temperature of the cities in question, showed that the surface air temperatures in Stockholm do not differ from Tallinn air temperatures from May to August. However, the surface air temperatures of Narva were similar to those of Tallinn in September. According to our results, the trends in the changes of monthly average surface air temperatures have a certain course during the year (ranging from 1.8 °C (Stockholm) to 4.5 °C (Võru and Tartu) per decade in February). During the entire study period, in addition to February, the surface air temperature increased in all the studied cities in March, May, June, and December, and the surface air temperature did not increase in January or from July to October. During the study period, the average annual surface air temperature in the cities of the central Baltic area increased by 0.43 °C per decade. The results also confirm that the surface air temperature in the study area is changing differently in different cities. The acceleration of the surface air temperature is very alarming and requires a significant intensification of the measures taken to slow down the temperature rise.
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Robertson, Leon S. "Motor Vehicle CO2 Emissions in the United States: Potential Behavioral Feedback and Global Warming." Weather, Climate, and Society 11, no. 3 (2019): 623–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-18-0128.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The previously found correlation of average annual temperature and motor vehicle travel among U.S. states suggests amplifying feedback of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and warming. This study employed a regression model relating average annual temperature to motor vehicle CO2 emissions among the 48 contiguous states, controlling for other factors that affect travel. Increased emissions were associated with higher temperatures during 2000–14. Application of the model to 2015–16 data indicated that 27 million metric tons of CO2 emissions in 2015 and 38 million metric tons in 2016 would have not occurred if the average annual temperatures among U.S. states in those years had remained at 2014 levels. A 2018 proposal by the U.S. government to reduce future vehicle fuel economy standards ignored the potential effect of warming on vehicle travel and contained erroneous analyses of the relation of vehicle weight to fatality risk, vehicle scrappage rate to new vehicle sales, and the relation of new vehicle costs to fuel economy. Huge improvement in fuel economy and reduced CO2 emissions based on required hybrid technology are possible at reasonable cost.
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Jiang, Dabang, Xianmei Lang, Zhiping Tian, and Tao Wang. "Considerable Model–Data Mismatch in Temperature over China during the Mid-Holocene: Results of PMIP Simulations." Journal of Climate 25, no. 12 (2012): 4135–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00231.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Using the experiments undertaken by 36 climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), this study examines annual and seasonal surface temperatures over China during the mid-Holocene. Compared to the present or preindustrial climate, 35 out of the 36 PMIP models reproduced colder-than-baseline annual temperature, with an average cooling of 0.4 K, during that period. Seasonal temperature change followed closely the change in incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere over China during the mid-Holocene. Temperature was reduced (elevated) in boreal winter and spring (summer) in all of the PMIP models, with an average of 1.4 K (1.0 K) at the national scale. Colder (warmer)-than-baseline temperatures were derived from 14 of the 16 atmosphere-only (18 of the 20 coupled) models during the mid-Holocene boreal autumn. Interactive ocean was found to lead to a warming effect on annual (0.3 K), boreal winter (0.5 K), and boreal autumn (0.7 K) temperatures, with reference to the atmosphere-only models. Interactive vegetation had little impact in terms of six pairs of coupled models with and without vegetation effects. The above results are in stark contrast to warmer-than-present annual and winter climate conditions as derived from multiproxy data for the mid-Holocene. Coupled models generally perform better than atmosphere-only models.
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WANG, XIN, CHENGDE YANG, YANLIN ZHANG, et al. "Monitoring and simulation of hydrothermal conditions indicating the deteriorating stability of a perennially frozen moraine dam in the Himalayas." Journal of Glaciology 64, no. 245 (2018): 407–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.38.
Full textAbstract:
ABSTRACTThermal and hydrological dynamics and their impacts on the stability of a moraine dam were analyzed and simulated for the Longbasaba Lake in the Himalaya, based on soil temperature, moisture and heat flux data observed at different depths in the dam from 2012 to 2016. Annual average heat income is greater than heat expenditure on the dam surface. The mean annual temperature at observed the depths of 0–150 cm is >0°C, although the average annual air temperature was −3.6°C over the dam, indicating a relatively larger temperature difference between moraine dam and air. The volumetric soil moisture content is relatively low with an annual average of 5%, peaking after the snow cover melting and active layer thawing. Simulation results indicate that the average yearly maximum thawing depth has been ~0.3 m deeper than the average yearly maximum freezing depth during the observation period. In the past 55 years, the yearly maximum thawing depth has increased, while yearly maximum freezing depth has decreased, implying that the permafrost in the dam has been deteriorating. The annual surplus heat and increasing permafrost thawing depth will result in further deterioration of permafrost and melting of buried ice in the dam, thereby decreasing its stability.