Academic literature on the topic 'Annual utility'

In this study, the idea of an energy self-sufficient public utility building was presented, as well as its energy balance components and the possibility of powering it with renewable sources. The annual energy consumption profile of the building was analyzed. Current data concerning the production of electricity from Renewable Energy Systems (RES) were presented. The applicable provisions of the Directive of the European Parliament and the EU Council on energy efficiency were discussed.

The use of electrical-utility cogeneration from nuclear energy and coal is examined for improving regional efficiency regarding energy-resource utilization and environmental stewardship. A case study is presented for a large and diverse hypothetical region which has nuclear and fossil facilities in its electrical utility sector. Utility-based cogeneration is determined to reduce significantly annual use of uranium and coal, as well as other fossil fuels, and related emissions for the region and its electrical-utility sector. The reduced emissions of greenhouse gases are significant, and indicate that electrical utility-based cogeneration has a key role to play in combating climate change.

Annual bluegrass (Poa annua L.) is a widely occurring turfgrass component. Recent efforts to develop cultivars of this species have led to increased interest in selection methods. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the utility of controlled growth studies for divergent selection for flowering and to evaluate the resultant selections for development and turfgrass quality. Two growth cabinet selection runs (1997 and 1998) were made at a constant 20°C and a 16-h photoperiod at low light levels. Selection was based upon the earliest and latest plants to produce a seedhead on the main stem. In the second selection run, mid-flowering selection was made to characterize the population distribution. Selections were grown out in the greenhouse in 1998 and 1999. Selections made in 1998 were seeded into a field study in August 1999 and maintained as golf green turf. Late selections flowered later than early or mid selections and produced more leaves on the main stem prior to inflorescence appearance. Seedhead ripening showed greater uniformity in late selections. Some late selections produced few seedheads under the greenhouse conditions. Selection for divergent flowering types was successful using the method employed. Turf performance was not related to flowering type, indicating that screening for turf performance will be required after initial selection for plant type. Key words: Poa annua L., selection, life history, tillering, seed production, turf performance

In Chile the reimbursement/patient/year for chronic peritoneal dialysis (PD) is US$14,654 and for chronic hemodialysis (HD) US$10,909. However, no study comparing global (direct plus indirect) costs has been performed in our country. Our research objective was to compare global costs and quality of life between the two therapies. Patients ( n = 159) from five selected dialysis units in Chile [57 patients on PD (50 on automated PD) and 102 on standard HD (3 x 4 hours weekly)] were retrospectively studied. No patient had previously received the alternate therapy. Items analyzed were quality of life, customer satisfaction, direct and indirect costs, annual global costs, and cost/utility index. Mean age on HD was 54.14 ± 16.01 years and on PD 49.76 ± 18.88 years ( p > 0.05). No differences in the distribution of diabetic patients between the therapies were found. Hemodialysis and PD groups did not have differences in the quality of life index, although there was better customer satisfaction with PD than with HD. Direct and indirect costs were calculated. We found significant differences in favor of PD in erythropoietin consumption (2.24 ± 1.57 vials/week on HD and 1.35 ± 0.85 vials/week on PD, p < 0.05) and working time (31.0 ± 13.3 hours/week on HD and 38.5 ± 12.2 hours/week on PD, p < 0.05). The quality life index (Health-Related SF-36 Health Survey) was 65.75 on HD and 66.88 on PD. Annual global costs were US$20,803 for HD and US$20,742 for PD. The cost/utility index was 3.16 for HD and 3.10 for PD. Patients on PD have an advantage related to erythropoietin consumption and working capacity compared with HD patients. Addition of related indirect costs to reimbursements gives a more accurate insight into treatment costs. Considering all these parameters, we did not find significant differences between HD and PD in quality life index, cost/utility index, or annual global cost in this Chilean end-stage renal disease population.

This diploma thesis solves issue of the easements and their impact on evaluation of the land. Primary there are decribe basic topics of the isuue, further on legal procedure of the easements and the constituon, modification and termination. Next there is describe types of prises and evaluation of the land, easements and the lands with these easements. In the practical part there is evaluation of the specific land (with the market value and administrative price), which is loaded by easement of way over the land.

Web maps are today used more than ever. These are often displayed in geographical information system solutions. Web maps are often constructed in the terms of different layers where the bottom-most layer is called base map or background map. A specific kind of base maps are those that are the canvas for utility networks. These base maps can look vastly different from each other. Sometimes the base map can be overlooked. Currently there are different theories and opinions on how these base maps shall be designed and what information they shall contain. This thesis investigates a suitable base map design for utility network management and also creates some prototypes as a proof of concept. The thesis focus mostly on three factors, colour, information visualisation and symbology. This is investigated by using a user-centred design approach and comparing it to existing findings in literature and among map theories. The user-centred design process involves a case study performed with participants that work with utility networks in web map solutions. The research method is an iterative process where the participants are answering three quantitative surveys. The surveys includes prototypes which is refined for each step after analysing the participants answers. The thesis concludes that low saturated colours is good practise to enhance the network, this is both evident in literature as well as in the case study. Amount of lightness in the base map seem to be more of a opinionated matter and can highly differentiate depending on users device. Using hue is recommended to make borders between map elements more distinct. The base map shall only obtain the most relevant information and more specific information is recommended to be added through additional layers. Further studies need to be done in order to investigate the networks design and there is also a need to investigate how a map solution with several layers shall be design and how the relationships between those layers shall be constructed for utility network management

The subject of this thesis is to determine the value of the easement of way over the land of another owner. The value of the easement will be established for an indefinite period, the duration of 20 years and for the life of the creditor. It will be calculated current price and official price. The theoretical part is concentrated on clarifying the concept of an easement, the possibility of the constitution, termination and changes, hereinafter referred to problems of valuation of the easement. In the project part is solved the specific passage in terms of benefits warrantee and losses liable party.

Utility network fieldworkers of today want to access more information and can benefit a lot from new technical development. Today most fieldwork is conducted using paper plans or locally stored data on laptops as a visual aid. Therefore there is a need for improvement and development of new reliable software for fieldwork. Also the abil- ity to use advanced Geographic Information Systems (GIS) solutions and enhanced visualization methods while out in the field could help improve fieldwork. In order to be as e↵ective as possible when carrying out di↵erent tasks in the field, di↵erent ways of visualizing the same network data are required. 2D and 3D visualization methods have di↵erent advantages and disadvantages when it comes to visualizing network data, which will be accounted for in this thesis. There are three main objectives in this thesis. The first is to evaluate how suitable di↵erent visualization methods are for fieldwork users working with utility networks. The second is to get a better understanding of what hardware and software that can be used for implementing the visualization methods. The last one is to use the first and second objectives to develop a prototype for utility network fieldwork. To address the objectives, the first step is to understand the users that work in the field. By conducting interviews, information about the current workflow for fieldworkers and their opinions about how the systems currently work is gathered. Based on this information the thesis is divided into cases and criteria which is the foundation for proposing a solution in form of mock-up sketches which is then imple- mented in form of a prototype. Finally the prototype is evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively using a web survey and presentations for potential end users. The prototype is created using web technologies and is mainly intended for tablets. Because of its mobility, screen size and adequate computational power the tablet is a good hardware choice for conducting fieldwork. The prototype presents network data in a 2D interactive map view, a 3D augmented reality (AR) view and a combined view. These choices are based on information gathered by studying related work and performing interviews with potential end users in the beginning of the study. The results of the thesis highlights large possibilities in making field work more e↵ective for fieldworkers. This in concluded partly by the results of the interviews with potential end users, but also by the response of the survey and presentation of the suggested solution. It is shown that there are new ways to improve the work process out in the field and that AR can help in visualizing the network in a new informative way for fieldwork. However, several challenges remain, but rapid techno- logical development implies possible solutions to deal with these challenges.

The thesis deals with the determination of real estate value easements established in favour of constructions transport infrastructure. The aim is determination of real estate value in an current price and official price. In connection with the established easement it is substantiate the devaluation of the real estate related with the occurrence of the easement. In the first part the thesis I deal with the forensic engineering, real estate market, easements and with their valuation. In the project part there is concretely solved valuation of real estate loaded with the easement.

My diploma thesis deals with the problems of easements put on buildings in the Czech Republic. The whole work is divided into the text part and the draft part. In the text part there are the common concepts going together with valuation in general, methods of the valuation. Next, there is a legislation of easements, methods and processes of easements and getting the value. Based on the knowledge gained in the text part, in the introduction of the draft part there is a valuation of the family house, including the whole equipment. On this family house there are three easements, including the easement of the free accommodation in one part of this house, the easement of the limitation of the construction activities, easement of the location of the mail box on the family house. The house and easements are valuated either for the taxes or for selling the building. At the end there is the final value of the building with easements, conclusion and recommendation for similar cases.

This thesis studies the counterpiracy in the Gulf of Aden. Pirates has made the international community deploy military forces to police the Gulf of Aden. However most of the systems usedare not designed for counterpiracy. Many are remnants from the cold war. Also downsizing of military forces in the West has resulted in the need to prioritize resources. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze five systems fighting pirates in the Gulf of Aden using Andersson et al. (2015)´s theory of military utility. The five systems are: light utility helicopter, medium utility helicopter, reconnaissance aircraft, combat boat and drone on tasks of detect, disrupt and deter. With the analysis the thesis discuss how the Swedish Armed Forces can use available recourses more efficiently as possible to aid in producing a greater operative effect on the national and international arena. The conclusions show that all systems have the potential to contribute to counterpiracy. Reconnaissance aircraft and drones are suitable to detect pirates. Light utility helicopters are able to detect and disrupt and partially deter. The combat boats are suitable to disrupt and deter. The medium utility helicopters are suitable for all three tasks. The thesis concludes with discussing the importance of the subsystems carried and its effects on a system´s military utility.
Den här rapporten undersöker piratbekämpningen i Adenviken. Piraterna har gjort att världssamfundet skickat militära styrkor för att patrullera Adenviken. De flesta system som används för piratbekämpningen är däremot inte designade för det ändamålet. Många är kvarlevor från det kalla kriget. Samtidigt som en minskning av de militära styrkorna har lett till behovet att bättre prioritera tillgängliga resurser. Syftet med den här rapporten är att analysera fem system som bekämpar pirater i Adenviken genom att använda Andersson et al. (2015)´s teori om militär nytta. De fem systemen är: Lätt helikopter, medeltung helikopter, spaningsflygplan, stridsbåt och drönare. Uppgifterna de ställs mot är: att upptäcka, avbryta samt avskräcka. För att med den analysen diskutera hur Försvarsmakten kan använda tillgängliga resurser effektivare och skapa operativ effekt, nationellt såväl som internationellt. Slutsatserna visar att alla system har potential att bidra till piratbekämpningen. Spaningsflygplan och drönare är lämpliga för att upptäcka pirater. Lätt helikopter är lämplig för att upptäcka och avbryta samt delvis avskräcka. Stridsbåten är lämplig för att avbryta och avskräcka. Medeltung helikopter är lämplig för alla tre uppgifter. Rapporten har diskuterat den betydelse som subsystemen har för systemens militära nytta.

The diploma thesis is aimed on course of the easements in perspective of a forencis engineer. First chapter specifies the legal regulation of the easements, its division, the causes of its constitution, modification and termination. General description of easements’ assessment methodology ensued, the definition of the particular types of prices and values and purposes of evaluation of the easements alike. In the proposal part is the theoretical analysis used on two actual cases of easements, specifically the right to crossing another owner's land and the right of construction on land owned by another individual.

This assignment concentrates on the problematics of encumbrance. It is about the flat ministry encumbrance in a family house. The job is split into two parts, written and suggested. The written part analyses general notions which are found in the pricing of the property’s belongings. Next, there are stated methods to pricing the property’s belongings. The next chapters are dealing with the legislation of eternal encumbrance, the procedures and the ways of their pricing. The second part, suggested, contains the pricing itself. The property’s belonging is priced in two methods. One of the methods to pricing is value regulations; the second method prices by the regular value. First, the whole family house is priced with all its’ accessories, on the principal of half basis ownership and the given area of the flats, we can consider the value of the priced flat at the same value as half of a family house. Next, the encumbrance itself is priced. The age of the authorised is considered in one group of 30 years and the second group of 80 years. The following step is deducting the value of the eternal encumbrance. From these given final results, we state the chosen price of the flat including taxing purposes. At the conclusion of the done job, evaluation and recommendation is done for pricing similar cases.

AbstractThis paper estimated the effect of electric vehicle transition on UK road and how it impacts on electricity supply and the reduction of carbon emissions. It used a scenario in which all cars that utilise internal combustion engines will be replaced by EVs in the UK. The methodology is based on speculating the future number of EVs in Great Britain, which helped in estimating the amount of additional electricity usage that would be required for the scenario. The results revealed that approximately 81 TWh of additional electricity must be produced annually to compensate for such expansion of EV. With that increase in electricity generation, the levels of carbon emissions from the electrical grid will rise slightly, by about 8.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Given that combustion vehicles contribute to about 42% of the carbon emissions from the transport sector in the UK, it is concluded that the total amount of CO2 in the country will decrease by approximately 12% of all cars with internal combustion engines are replaced by electric vehicles.

For decades, researchers have sought to understand the adhesion of ice to surfaces so that low-cost ice mitigation strategies can be developed. Presently, the field of ice adhesion is still without formal standards for performing ice adhesion tests. The U.S. Army Corps Engineers’ Research and Development Center’s Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (ERDC-CRREL) has a longstanding history as an independent third party for ice adhesion testing services. Most notably, CRREL’s Zero-Degree Cone Test (ZDCT) has been an industry favorite for more than 30 years. Despite its wide acceptance, the ZDCT contains some shortcomings, namely that freshwater ice is formed on the surface of interest within the confines of an annular gap. To address this limitation, CRREL developed and uses the Ice Adhesion Peel Test (IAPT) for testing ice adhesion. This test employs an open planar substrate from which the ice can be removed under either tensile or shear loading, thereby allowing ice to be grown directly on the target substrate without the use of molds. The IAPT configuration is therefore amenable to different ice types and geometries and will provide utility to research studies that aim to develop surface treatments to mitigate ice in a wide range of environments. This report describes the IAPT and its use for characterizing the ice adhesion properties of materials.

In this report, we have evaluated the performance of nearly 40 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The focus is on the northern European area, but the ability to simulate southern European and global climate is discussed as well. Model evaluation was started with a technical control; completely unrealistic values in the GCM output files were identified by seeking the absolute minimum and maximum values. In this stage, one GCM was rejected totally, and furthermore individual output files from two other GCMs. In evaluating the remaining GCMs, the primary tool was the Model Climate Performance Index (MCPI) that combines RMS errors calculated for the different climate variables into one index. The index takes into account both the seasonal and spatial variations in climatological means. Here, MCPI was calculated for the period 1981—2010 by comparing GCM output with the ERA-Interim reanalyses. Climate variables explored in the evaluation were the surface air temperature, precipitation, sea level air pressure and incoming solar radiation at the surface. Besides MCPI, we studied RMS errors in the seasonal course of the spatial means by examining each climate variable separately. Furthermore, the evaluation procedure considered model performance in simulating past trends in the global-mean temperature, the compatibility of future responses to different greenhouse-gas scenarios and the number of available scenario runs. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures were likewise explored in a qualitative sense, but owing to the non-existence of data from multiple GCMs, these variables were not incorporated in the quantitative validation. Four of the 37 GCMs that had passed the initial technical check were regarded as wholly unusable for scenario calculations: in two GCMs the responses to the different greenhouse gas scenarios were contradictory and in two other GCMs data were missing from one of the four key climate variables. Moreover, to reduce inter-GCM dependencies, no more than two variants of any individual GCM were included; this led to an abandonment of one GCM. The remaining 32 GCMs were divided into three quality classes according to the assessed performance. The users of model data can utilize this grading to select a subset of GCMs to be used in elaborating climate projections for Finland or adjacent areas. Annual-mean temperature and precipitation projections for Finland proved to be nearly identical regardless of whether they were derived from the entire ensemble or by ignoring models that had obtained the lowest scores. Solar radiation projections were somewhat more sensitive.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.