Academic literature on the topic 'Anthropogenic pressures and impacts'

This study gives a review on the process of identification of significant pressures and impacts, which is an important part of river basin planning and in particular for implementing the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) (2000/60/EC). The questions: what is a “significant pressure” in terms of the WFD? which sources and driving forces have to be regarded? which data can be used? which pressure on a water body is significant? and which implications and requirements result from the identification process? - should be considered. The European Commission requires reporting from all Member States about the status of the water bodies within a river basin district and about the risk of failing the environmental objectives by the end of 2004. Therefore, a number of prevailing projects across Europe aim to develop a guideline on a common understanding of the most effective approach towards the identification of significant anthropogenic pressures, and the analysis of potential impacts including the identification of appropriate tools and models. In such a guideline suitable and intelligent criteria have to be developed in order to enable a uniform assessment of the anthropogenic pressures within a river basin district.

Lake Tana, Ethiopia’s largest lake, has a remarkable and conservation-worthy assemblage of fish species, requiring fisheries management for sustainable exploitation. However, due to anthropogenic impacts, many of these fish species are threatened. Hence, an improved management of these resources is recommended. To allow a more sustainable exploitation of natural resources, a better understanding of the cause-effect relationships between anthropogenic impacts and environmental components is fundamental. The Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses (DPSIR) framework is a useful tool to describe these links in a meaningful way to managers and policy makers. Despite its potential, application of DPSIR is virtually lacking in developing countries. This paper assessed the potential of the DPSIR framework and used it to comprehensively describe the available knowledge and management needs in the lake catchment. Rapid population growth and the economic transformation are the main driving forces leading to various pressures such as water quality and wetlands degradation as well as declining fish community, which is detrimental to the socio-economic state and health of the local inhabitants. As feedback to the driving forces, pressures, state changes and impacts, optimal multi-level responses are developed. This study aims at providing policy makers a better understanding of the lake catchment in order to bridge the gap between science and decision-making.

AbstractThe Greater Sunda region of South-east Asia supports a rich diversity of economically and ecologically important species. However, human pressures are reshaping contemporary biogeography across the region. Megafaunal distributional patterns have been particularly affected because of deforestation, poaching and human–wildlife conflict. Crocodilians are at the centre of these conflicts in Indonesia and yet remain poorly studied across much of the archipelago. We conducted population surveys of salt-water crocodiles Crocodylus porosus and false gharials Tomistoma schlegelii in Sumatra, and examined whether crocodile abundance and distribution are correlated with variations in human disturbance, fishing pressure, and habitat type. We then used these data to model remaining suitable habitat for T. schlegelii across South-east Asia. We found that abundance of T. schlegelii and C. porosus was correlated with distance from human settlements, and fish-trapping pressure. We recorded the presence of T. schlegelii in a river system in which it was previously unknown, thus expanding the known range of the species. We also found that the predicted remaining suitable habitat for T. schlegelii in Indonesia is largely limited to areas of low human activity. From these empirical and modelling approaches we propose several key conservation priorities: (1) eliminate the use of fish traps in remaining patches of T. schlegelii habitat, (2) prioritize crocodile population surveys in remaining suitable habitat, particularly in remote areas, (3) consider T. schlegelii to be potentially Endangered locally in Sumatra, and (4) expand existing reserves around the Lower Kampar River and Berbak National Park/Sembilang National Park areas of Sumatra.

Human activities impose novel pressures on amphibians, which are experiencing unprecedented global declines, yet population-level responses are poorly understood. A growing body of literature has revealed that noise is an anthropogenic stressor that impacts ecological processes spanning subcellular to ecosystem levels. These consequences can impose novel selective pressures on populations, yet whether populations can adapt to noise is unknown. We tested for adaptation to traffic noise, a widespread sensory ‘pollutant’. We collected eggs of wood frogs ( Rana sylvatica ) from populations from different traffic noise regimes, reared hatchlings under the same conditions, and tested frogs for differences in sublethal fitness-relevant effects of noise. We show that prolonged noise impaired production of antimicrobial peptides associated with defence against disease. Additionally, noise and origin site interacted to impact immune and stress responses. Noise exposure altered leucocyte production and increased baseline levels of the stress-relevant glucocorticoid, corticosterone, in frogs from quiet sites, but noise-legacy populations were unaffected. These results suggest noise-legacy populations have adapted to avoid fitness-relevant physiological costs of traffic noise. These findings advance our understanding of the consequences of novel soundscapes and reveal a pathway by which anthropogenic disturbance can enable adaptation to novel environments.

In 2008, the European Community adopted the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, aiming to achieve or maintain good environmental status in the European marine environment by 2020, applying an ecosystem-based approach to the management of human activities. Spatial information of the distribution of the human activities and their related pressures is essential to accomplish this task successfully. After compiling the available data from official sources, the spatial extent of the land-based and ocean-based human activities that could have an impact on the Spanish marine waters were estimated and mapped using GIS tools. In addition, a series of indexes were created in order to develop a cumulative analysis, taking into account the different relevance of pressures and that single pressures have different intensities. The identification of areas with an accumulation of pressures revealed that it is in coastal waters around big cities where the greater part of the pressures concentrates for each of the five Spanish marine districts. Human impacts emanating from the identified pressures could not be evaluated and this task is proposed to be accomplished in further projects. Nonetheless, the resulting information is considered very useful for managers and technical staff to support not only marine management but also other planning and decision making in Spain.

Freshwater ecosystems are among the systems most threatened and impacted by anthropogenic activities, but there is still a lack of knowledge on how this multi-pressure environment impacts aquatic communities in situ. In Europe, nutrient enrichment and temperature increase due to global change were identified as the two main pressures on lakes. Therefore, we investigated how the interaction of these two pressures impacts the community structure of the two extreme components of lake food webs: phytoplankton and fish. We modelled the relationship between community components (abundance, composition, size) and environmental conditions, including these two pressures. Different patterns of response were highlighted. Four metrics responded to only one pressure and one metric to the additive effect of the two pressures. Two fish metrics (average body-size and biomass ratio between perch and roach) were impacted by the interaction of temperature and eutrophication, revealing that the effect of one pressure was dependent on the magnitude of the second pressure. From a management point of view, it appears necessary to consider the type and strength of the interactions between pressures when assessing the sensitivity of communities, otherwise their vulnerability (especially to global change) could be poorly estimated.

La gestion et la conservation des littoraux exigent la synthèse de données géographiques sur la répartition et l'intensité des activités humaines et sur le cumul de leurs impacts sur les écosystèmes côtiers marins et terrestres. Actuellement, à l’échelle du littoral européen ou français, peu d’études offrent une vision globale des risques sur les habitats terrestres et marins. Comment s’y répartissent les pressions humaines sur la biodiversité ? Comment mieux définir le système littoral et ainsi améliorer la gestion de ce territoire ? A l’échelle européenne, à l’aide de 24 pressions anthropiques issues d’EUROSTAT sur une classification NUTS, nous avons découpé le littoral terrestre européen en bandes de 10 km jusqu’à une limite de 100 km et identifié la répartition et l’intensité relative des pressions sur les environnements côtiers. Nous avons ainsi montré que la grande majorité des pressions se situent directement sur le trait de côte et les 30 premiers kilomètres, puis diminue fortement jusqu’à la limite des 100 km. Ce découpage du littoral européen nous a aussi permis, à l’aide d’analyses factorielles des correspondances couplées à de la classification hiérarchique ascendante, de diviser les territoires littoraux en 4 groupes cohérents présentant les mêmes pressions et intensités relatives à l’échelle de l’Europe. A l’échelle française, nous avons également développé un modèle spatial pondéré par dires d’experts basé sur la géolocalisation de 15 pressions anthropiques pour 81 habitats biophysiques marins et terrestres présents sur les littoraux français métropolitains. L’information est synthétisée sous la forme de score appliqué à un maillage composé de 26000 cellules de 25 km². Cette méthode de scoring cumulative, dans un modèle additif des impacts anthropiques, nous montre les aires à risques à la fois sur le territoire marin et terrestre. Encore une fois, les zones les plus affectées par les perturbations humaines sont les plus proches du littoral. A contrario, les zones les moins affectées sont celles avec une bathymétrie forte et celles avec une élévation importante. Nous avons finalement développé un site web participatif qui comporte de la SIG intégrée pour permettre la collecte et la diffusion de l’analyse de ces pressions anthropiques sur la France métropolitaine en suivant notre modèle additif et permet à des échelles plus locales de restituer notre analyse à tout type d’utilisateur. Au final, peu de zones ne sont pas affectées par les activités humaines (0,1%) et au contraire, une fraction importante présente de très forts risques (4,8%). Les risques sont de plus en plus forts en se rapprochant du trait de côte. Ces analyses et les cartes développées sont des outils permettant de mieux comprendre les enjeux de conservation pour la mise en œuvre d’une gestion des socio-écosystèmes littoraux et permettront de mieux cibler les priorités dans la conservation de notre territoire à échelle continentale, nationale ou locale
Coastal management and conservation require the synthesis of geographic data on the distribution and intensity of human activities and their combined impacts on marine and terrestrial coastal ecosystems. Currently, across the European or French coasts, few studies provide a global view of risks on terrestrial and marine habitats. How are human pressures on biodiversity distributed? How to define the littoral system and thus improve management of this territory? At the European level, using 24 human pressures from EUROSTAT across the NUTS classification, we cut the European coasts in strips of 10 km to a limit of 100 km and identified the distribution and relative intensity pressures on coastal environments. We have shown that the great majority of the pressures occurs directly on the coastline and in the first 30 kilometers, then decreases sharply to the limit of 100 km. This division of the European coasts has also allowed us to use factorial correspondence analyses coupled with a hierarchical cluster analysis to divide the coastal territories in 4 coherent groups with the same pressures and relative intensities across Europe. At the French level, we have also developed a spatial model weighted by expert opinions based on geolocation of 15 human pressures on 81 marine and terrestrial biophysical habitats present on the metropolitan French coasts. The information is synthesized in the form of impact score applied to a mesh composed of 26000 cells (25 km²). This method of cumulative anthropogenic impacts scoring in an additive model shows areas with higher risks on both the marine and land territory. Again, the most affected areas by the human disturbances are close to the coast. Conversely, the least affected areas are those with a strong bathymetry and those with a significant elevation. We finally developed a participatory website that includes integrated GIS that allows the collection and dissemination of analysis of these human pressures on France following our additive model and allows at more local scales to return our analysis from any type of user. In the end few areas are not affected by human activities (0.1%) and a rather large fraction present very high risk (4.8%). The nearer the coastline, the more the risks are high. These analyses and maps are tools that give better understanding of conservation issues for the implementation of a socio-ecosystems coastal management and that will target the priorities in the conservation of our territories at a continental, national or local scale

Les éléments génétiques mobiles (EGM) sont des structures génétiques fréquemment associées à la dissémination de gènes de résistance aux antibiotiques (GRA). Dans ce travail, nous avons utilisé deux EGM comme « proxies », les intégrons de classe 1 et les plasmides IncP-1, afin de mieux comprendre (i) le devenir possible des GRA une fois relargués dans un écosystème fluvial (l’Orne, France), ainsi que (ii) l’effet des pressions anthropiques sur leur persistance. À partir d'analyses de l'eau des rivières, nous avons pu montrer que les deux EGM ne se comportaient pas de la même manière. L'entrée des intégrons de classe 1 dans le système fluvial semblait être diffuse plutôt que ponctuelle, tandis que l'abondance du plasmide IncP-1 est relativement stable le long de la section de la rivière étudiée (23 km), indiquant ainsi une origine plutôt indigène. Les intrants anthropiques tels que les stations d’épuration des eaux usées ne semblent pas affecter l’abondance des EGM en raison d’un niveau trop élevé de dilution des effluents. Par ailleurs, il est intéressant de noter que les bactéries porteuses d’EGM semblaient être enrichies sur les matières en suspension, susceptibles de servir de véhicule pour amener des communautés de bactéries plus riches en EGM vers les sédiments. L'analyse de deux carottes de sédiment indique clairement que seules les couches supérieures présentent un niveau élevé de bactéries porteuses d’EGM. Ces abondances diminuent dans les couches plus profondes où seules des zones ponctuelles présentent des microréservoirs avec des abondances d’EGM plus élevées. Pour une carotte sédimentaire au moins, nous avons pu montrer que l'abondance relative d’EGM corrèle négativement la présence de polluants tel que le plomb ou certains HAP
Mobile genetic elements (MGEs) are genetic structures frequently associated to the dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). In this work, we used two of them as proxies, class 1 integrons and IncP-1 plasmids, to better understand (i) the possible fate of ARGs once released in a river ecosystem (Orne, France), as well as (ii) the effect of anthropogenic pressures on their persistence. From river water analyses, we could show that the two MGEs do not behave the same way. The entry of class 1 integrons in the river system appeared to be diffuse rather than punctual, while the abundance of IncP-1 plasmid is relatively stable along the river section studied (23 km) thus indicating a rather indigenous origin. Anthropic inputs such as wastewater treatment plant did not seem to affect the abundance of MGEs because a too high level of effluent dilution. Interestingly, MGE-bearing bacteria appeared to be enriched on suspended material, which is likely to serve as a vehicle to drive MGE-richer communities of bacteria toward the sediments. The analysis of two sediment cores clearly indicates that only the top layers displayed an elevated level of MGE-bearing bacteria. These abundances decrease in deeper layers where only localized zones display micro-reservoirs of elevated MGE abundances. For one sediment core at least, we could show that the relative abundance of MGE negatively correlates with pollutants such as lead or certain PAHs

Die Besiedlung von Gewässern durch Fische, ist neben abiotischen Lebensraumbedingungen auch von der Erreichbarkeit d.h. von der art-spezifischen Ausbreitungsfähigkeit sowie von Wanderhindernissen abhängig. Der erste Teil dieser Arbeit bietet die erste umfangreiche quantitative Analyse von Ausbreitungsmustern und -distanzen von Flussfischen. Aus der Fachliteratur wurden 160 empirische Datensätze aus 71 wissenschaftlichen Studien zur Ausbreitung von 62 Fischarten in Flüssen extrahiert und an leptokurse Wahrscheinlichkeits-Dichte-Funktionen (Dispersal kernel) angepasst. Es konnte bei Fischpopulationen zwischen einer stationären (ca. 2/3) und einer mobilen Komponente (ca. 1/3) unterschieden werden deren Ausbreitungsdistanzen von vier Faktoren abhängig sind: Fischlänge, Form der Schwanzflosse, Fließgewässergröße, betrachtete Zeitspanne. Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit widmet sich dem neu entwickelten Fischausbreitungsmodell FIDIMO einem GIS-Softwareprogramm zur Modellierung und Simulation der räumlichen und zeitlichen Ausbreitungsmuster von Fischen in Flüssen unter Berücksichtigung von Wanderhindernissen. FIDIMO verknüpft konzeptionelle Überlegungen zu Ausbreitungsmodellen in verzweigten Fließgewässernetzwerken mit empirisch bestimmten leptokursen Fischausbreitungskurven unter ausschließlicher Verwendung von Free and Open Source Software. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit wurde FIDIMO zur Modellierung der Ausbreitung von 17 Fischarten angewendet um die Einflüsse von (i) Habitatqualität, (ii) Ausbreitungsfähigkeit und (iii) Fließgewässer-Fragmentierung auf die Besiedlungsmuster durch Fische zu bestimmen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die artspezifische Habitatqualität und Ausbreitungsfähigkeit die Besiedlung maßgeblich bestimmen. Dagegen wurde kein signifikanter Einfluss von Barrieren auf das Vorkommen einer Art gefunden. Über längere Zeiträume sinkt der Einfluss von Fischausbreitung auf das lokale Vorkommen einer Fischart während die Habitatqualität relativ wichtiger wird.
The colonisation of rivers by fishes is directly linked to abiotic habitat conditions but often impaired by dispersal abilities of fishes and movement constraints such as barriers. The first part of this thesis provides the first comprehensive quantitative analysis of freshwater fish movement while considering fish populations consisting of differently mobile specimens. 160 empirical datasets from 71 studies on the movement of 62 riverine fish species were analysed based on refitted leptokurtic probability-density functions (dispersal kernels). A share of one third and two thirds emerged as a general pattern of the mobile and stationary component of a fish population, respectively. Moreover, four variables were identified primarily determining dispersal distances: fish length, aspect ratio of the caudal fin, river size and time. In the second part of the thesis, the novel fish dispersal model FIDIMO is introduced. FIDIMO provides a GIS-tool for predicting and simulating spatio-temporal patterns of fish dispersal in dendritic river networks considering movement barriers. The fish dispersal model FIDIMO links conceptual considerations on dispersal modelling with empirically observed leptokurtic fish movement patterns and the strengths of geographically explicit modelling in Free and Open Source GIS. In the third part of the thesis, FIDIMO was applied for modelling dispersal of 17 fish species to disentangle the effects of (i) habitat suitability, (ii) dispersal constraints and (iii) network fragmentation on the distribution of river fishes. The results show significant positive effects of both, local-scale habitat quality and species-specific dispersal ability on the distribution of river fishes, whereas no significant effect of barriers influencing the presence of a species could be found. Over longer time periods the importance of dispersal decreased in favour of habitat suitability becoming relatively more relevant in determining species'' presence.

Le maintien et le renouvellement des populations de poissons coralliens dépendent en grande partie du recrutement larvaire, c’est-à-dire de l’installation des larves pélagiques dans les habitats récifaux adultes, et de leur survie après s’être métamorphosées en juvéniles. De plus en plus d’études révèlent que les changements de composition de l’eau, causés par le changement climatique et la pollution, peuvent altérer les capacités sensorielles des poissons coralliens, diminuant leurs aptitudes à localiser des habitats propices (maximisant leur croissance et diminuant leur mortalité) lors de l’installation. Cependant, les mécanismes internes à l’origine de ces phénomènes sont méconnus. Lors de cette thèse, j’ai examiné le recrutement larvaire du poisson chirurgien bagnard Acanthurus triostegus et mis en évidence que les changements écologiques, morphologiques, physiologiques et comportementaux qui s’y déroulent correspondent à une métamorphose contrôlée par les hormones thyroïdiennes (HT). J’ai ensuite analysé comment des stress d’origine anthropique, tels que l’élévation des températures de surface et la pollution par un pesticide d’origine agricole, peuvent perturber sa métamorphose. Lors de cette étape clé de leur cycle de vie, ces perturbations diminuent les taux d’HT, altérant la maturation de leurs organes sensoriels, leurs capacités sensorielles, et augmentant leur mortalité. Cette thèse est donc une analyse holistique de l’impact des perturbations anthropiques sur les processus moléculaires, et les changements histologiques, anatomiques et comportementaux du recrutement larvaire des poissons coralliens. Elle souligne l’importance du système thyroïdien, et invite à une meilleure compréhension des processus endocriniens du recrutement larvaire, dans l’optique d’une amélioration de la conservation des récifs coralliens
The persistence and sustainability of coral-reef fish populations depends on the continued larval recruitment, i.e. successful settlement by pelagic larvae into adult reef habitats and post-settlement survival through metamorphosis to a juvenile stage. There is growing evidence that changes to water conditions due to global change and waterborne pollution can impair coral-reef fish sensory abilities to locate settlement habitats that maximize growth while minimizing mortality risk. However, the inner mechanisms of such impairments remain unknown. In this thesis, I have examined the recruitment phase of the convict surgeonfish Acanthurus triostegus, and determined that the ecological, morphological, physiological and behavioral changes occurring at recruitment correspond to a metamorphosis mediated by thyroid hormones (TH). Then, I investigated whether this metamorphosis is prone to endocrine disruption under anthropogenic disturbances such as elevated sea water temperature and agricultural pesticide pollution. I demonstrated that such pressures can reduce TH levels at a critical developmental stage in coral-reef fishes, impairing their metamorphic processes such as intestine remodeling, sensory organ maturation, and sensory abilities acquisition, further increasing their mortality rates. Overall, this thesis is a holistic analysis that addresses molecular, histological, anatomical, and behavioral assays of multiple stressors affecting coral-reef fish recruitment. It indicates the importance of a proper endocrine function during coral-reef fish recruitment, highlighting the need for a better understanding of these processes for coral-reef conservation

Abstract Human activities have increasingly altered freshwater ecosystems. Land use is a major driver of habitat loss and land use-related input of nutrients and other pollutants from agriculture, forestry and urbanization have deteriorated water quality. Freshwater research has mainly focused on lakes and streams while the effects of anthropogenic stressors on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are poorly known. Likewise, the effectiveness of ecological restoration in mitigating human disturbance in GDEs remains understudied. In this thesis, I studied the effects of two main anthropogenic stressors – land drainage and groundwater contamination – on boreal spring ecosystems and evaluated the recovery of spring biodiversity and ecosystem functioning after habitat restoration. I applied several structural (macroinvertebrates, bryophytes, leaf-decomposing fungi and groundwater bacteria) and functional (organic matter decomposition and primary productivity) measures to provide a comprehensive insight into these issues. Both stressors modified spring ecosystems. Land drainage reduced the key ecosystem processes. Long-term monitoring of drainage-impacted springs showed a marked biodiversity loss and change of spring-dwelling bryophytes, and no signs of recovery were observed after about 20 years since the intial land drainage. Groundwater contamination, indicated by elevated nitrate and chloride concentrations, altered the structure of spring biota, reduced their taxonomic diversity and suppressed primary productivity in the most severely contaminated springs. Spring restoration improved habitat quality by reducing drainage-induced inflow of surface water, thus re-establishing groundwater-dominated hydrological conditions. Restoration increased abundance of habitat-specialist bryophytes and shifted macroinvertebrate composition towards natural conditions, despite the restoration actions being fairly recent. Anthropogenic activities can thus cause severe structural and functional degradation of spring ecosystems, and their self-recovery potential from these stressors seems low. Habitat restoration bears great promise as a cost-effective approach to mitigate drainage-induced impacts on spring ecosystems, but protection and co-management of groundwater resources are urgently needed to secure the role of springs as biodiversity hotspots in the boreal forest landscape
Tiivistelmä Ihmistoiminta muuttaa yhä enemmän vesiekosysteemejä. Maankäyttö on johtanut elinympäristöjen häviämiseen, ja siihen liittyvä ravinne- ja haitta-ainekuormitus maa- ja metsätaloudesta sekä kaupunkiympäristöistä on merkittävästi huonontanut veden laatua johtaen maailmanlaajuiseen vesiluonnon monimuotoisuuden heikentymiseen. Vesiekosysteemien tutkimus on keskittynyt pääasiassa järvi- ja jokiympäristöihin, kun ihmistoiminnan vaikutukset pohjavesiriippuvaisiin ekosysteemeihin tunnetaan edelleen huonosti. Samoin kunnostusten merkitys pohjavesiriippuvaisten ekosysteemien tilan parantamiseksi on selvittämättä. Väitöskirjassani tarkastelin kahden keskeisen ihmistoiminnan – metsäojituksen ja pohjaveden laadun heikkenemisen – vaikutuksia lähde-ekosysteemeihin sekä arvioin elinympäristökunnostusten vaikutuksia niiden rakenteeseen ja toimintaan. Sovelsin työssäni rakenteellisia (pohjaeläimet, sammalet, lehtikariketta hajottavat sienet ja pohjavesibakteerit) ja toiminnallisia (eloperäisen aineksen hajoaminen ja perustuotanto) mittareita tuottamaan kattavan käsityksen tutkimuskysymyksiini. Sekä metsäojitukset että pohjaveden laadun heikkeneminen aiheuttavat muutoksia lähteiden rakenteessa ja toiminnassa. Metsäojitukset hidastavat keskeisiä ekosysteemitoimintoja ja johtavat lähdesammallajiston muutokseen ja monimuotoisuuden taantumiseen. Pohjaveden pilaantuminen, jota työssä ilmennettiin kohonneilla nitraatti- ja kloridipitoisuuksilla, heikentää lähdelajiston monimuotoisuutta, muuttaa lajikoostumusta ja johtaa perustuotannon laskuun voimakkaimmin kuormitetuissa lähteissä. Kunnostus parantaa lähde-elinympäristön laatua vähentämällä metsäojien aiheuttamaa pintavesivaikutusta palauttaen pohjavesivaltaisen hydrologisen tilan. Lähdekunnostusten myötä lähdesammaleet runsastuvat ja pohjaeläinyhteisön rakenne palautuu luonnontilaisten lähteiden kaltaiseksi, vaikka kunnostuksista on kulunut vasta muutamia vuosia. Väitöskirjan tulokset osoittavat, että ihmisen toiminta voi aiheuttaa muutoksia lähde-ekosysteemien rakenteessa ja toiminnassa ja lähteiden luontainen palautuminen häiriöstä on hidasta. Lähde-elinympäristöjen kunnostus vaikuttaa lupaavalta suojelutoimenpiteeltä metsäojitusten vaikutusten vähentämisessä, mutta lähteiden säilyttäminen monimuotoisena ja suojelullisesti arvokkaana luontotyyppinä edellyttää pohjavesivarojen hallinnan ja tilan suojelun tehostamista

Over the past decades technological developments have both changed and increased human in influence on the marine environment. We now have greater potential than ever before to introduce disturbance and deplete marine resources. Two of the issues currently under public scrutiny are the exploitation of fish stocks worldwide and levels of anthropogenic noise in the marine environment. The aim of this thesis is to investigate and develop novel analyses and simulations to provide additional insight into some of the challenges facing the marine ecosystem today. These methodologies will improve the management of these risks to marine ecosystems. This thesis first addresses the issue of competition between humans and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) for marine resources, providing compelling evidence that a substantial proportion of the sandeels consumed by grey seals in the North Sea are in fact H. lanceolatus, which is not commercially exploited, rather than the commercially important A. marinus. In addition, we present quantitative results regarding sources of bias when estimating the total biomass of sandeels consumed by grey seals. Secondly, we investigate spatially adaptive 2-dimensional smoothing to improve the prediction of both the presence and density of marine species, information that is often key in the management of marine ecosystems. Particularly, we demonstrate the benefits of such methods in the prediction of sandeel occurrence. Lastly this thesis provides a quantitative assessment of the protocols for real-time monitoring of marine mammal presence, which require that acoustic operations cease when an animal is detected within a certain distance (i.e. the "monitoring zone") of the sound source. We assess monitoring zones of different sizes with regards to their effectiveness in reducing the risks of temporary and permanent damage to the animals' hearing, and demonstrate that a monitoring zone of 2 km is generally recommendable.

Coastal anthropogenic infrastructure has significantly modified nearshore environments. Because these structures often have a strong association with shipping as would be found in ports and harbors, they have been identified as invasion hotspots. Due to propagule pressure from shipping and recreational boating and suitable uncolonized substrate that provides a refuge from native predators, a greater number of non-native species have been found on these structures compared to nearby natural substrate. The mechanisms that limit the spread of non-native species from anthropogenic structures to natural substrate have been explored for several taxa at a species-specific level, but less so from an overall community perspective. Predation has been identified as one of the biotic interactions limiting invasion success. In addition to predation, dispersal ability may also prevent the spread of non-native species from anthropogenic structures to natural substrate. This thesis addresses how these two mechanisms interact to limit the spread of non-native species from anthropogenic structures to natural substrate and how that alters overall community composition. I aimed to explore differences between communities inside and outside of a marina and determine the extent to which predator and dispersal limitation were structuring these communities. I used a three-factor design, deploying seven unglazed ceramic tiles per each treatment combination of 1) inside versus outside a marina in Yaquina Bay, Oregon; 2) cage keeping out predators greater than the mesh size, no cage, or partial cage; 3) fixed near the substrata (benthic) versus suspended 1 meter below the surface. I also transplanted caged, suspended tiles of either adults or recruits from inside the marina to benthic and suspended caging treatments outside of the marina. These tiles allowed me to examine predation when dispersal limitation was not a factor for the community inside the marina, i.e. what happens to both recruits and adults if they can get outside of the marina. I found that the communities inside and outside of the marina were different and the data suggest that both predation and dispersal limitation interact to limit the spread of non-native species. Additionally, I found that mesopredators that could fit through the caging may be influencing predation results and community structure. This research addresses gaps in scientific knowledge regarding the mechanisms that prevent or facilitate the spread of non-native species. Future work could include the further exploration of mesopredation as an important factor in limiting the spread of non-native species and exploring dispersal limitation more in depth as well as broadening the geographic scope to see if the same trends hold true across bays and bioregions.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Dept. of Geosciences and School of Computing and Engineering. University of Missouri--Kansas City, 2006.
"A dissertation in geoscience and software architecture." Advisor: Wei Ji. Typescript. Vita. Title from "catalog record" of the print edition Description based on contents viewed Nov. 13, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 248-261). Online version of the print edition.

The monograph presents a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of landscapes to external influences. A comparative analysis of the concepts of "stability", "sensitivity", "vulnerability" in relation to natural complexes. An overview of existing methods for assessing the vulnerability of natural complexes is presented. The author's method of assessing the vulnerability of landscapes to anthropogenic impacts is described. The methodology is based on: selection and justification of criteria for assessing the vulnerability of landscapes; preparation of a parametric matrix and gradation of assessment criteria in accordance with the developed vulnerability classes; calculation of weighting factors of vulnerability assessment parameters; selection of optimal territorial operational unit for landscape vulnerability assessment. The method is implemented in the GIS environment "Assessment of vulnerability of landscapes of the Kaliningrad region to anthropogenic impacts", created by the authors using modern geoinformation products. The specificity of spatial differentiation of different landscapes in terms of vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts at the regional and local levels is revealed. It is stated that the use of the methodology for assessing the vulnerability of landscapes to anthropogenic impacts and its integration into the system of nature management will ensure a balanced account of geoecological features and environmental priorities in territorial planning. It is of interest to specialists in the field of rational nature management, environmental protection, spatial planning.

The paper summarizes and examined extensive evidence on the environmental, geological and technological challenges of exploration and production of oil and gas, encountered during the development of the gigantic fields. Investigated environmental problems of underground disposal of wastes, the formation of zones of technogenic pollution, ecology megalonyx pressures and many others. Describes the environmental effects of oil and gas companies on the environment. The proposal for reducing the negative anthropogenic influence on the geoecological conditions of the environment. Justified the monitoring of the exploration and exploitation of deposits of natural raw materials. Is designed to masters, post-graduate students and students studying on the specialty "Environmental Geology", "Geology and Geochemistry of combustible minerals", "Geology of marine oil and gas fields", "Hydrogeology and engineering Geology", a wide range of scientific and industrial workers of the oil and gas industry, high school teachers and graduate students geoenvironmental, environmental, oil and gas fields.

The oceans provide many vital ecosystem services for humankind, but the health of the world’s seas is in serious decline. The protection of the marine environment has emerged as one of the most pressing challenges for the international community. An effective solution depends upon the cooperation of all states towards achieving agreed objectives. International law plays a vital role in this process. This book provides a critical assessment of the international legal instruments that have been negotiated for the protection of the marine environment and identifies key trends in global ocean governance. Starting with a detailed analysis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the book explains and evaluates the main global and regional treaties and related instruments that seek to prevent, reduce, and control damage to the marine environment caused by navigation, seabed exploitation, fishing, dumping, geo-engineering, and land-based activities, as well as emerging pressures such as ocean noise, ocean acidification, and climate change. The book demonstrates how international institutions have expanded their mandates to address a broader range of marine environmental issues and to promote an ecosystems approach to regulation. It also discusses the development of diverse regulatory tools to address anthropogenic impacts on the marine environment and the extent to which States have adopted a precautionary approach in different maritime sectors. Whilst many advances have been made, the book highlights the need for greater coordination between international institutions, as well as the desirability of developing stronger enforcement mechanisms for international environmental rules.

AbstractBiodiversity hot spots cannot be preserved successfully unless human activities such as illegal logging and grazing are properly controlled and cooperation is achieved among resource users to reduce anthropogenic impacts. We explore strategies for sustainable use of common resources by studying resource users’ behaviors together with resource dynamics, because ecological and social factors are known to interact strongly. By showing three systems dealing with the risk of illegal logging, grazing pressure, and increasing catching effort respectively, we show the advantages of a mathematical model as a management tool.

Abstract Despite a large and rapidly growing volume of research activity and output, primarily on the biological bases of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), epidemiological understanding of the causal mechanisms at play behind the apparent recent global rise in prevalence of AMR has, arguably, progressed very little. Despite this inconvenient fact, political imperative and expedience, among other drivers, have given substantial impetus to an interventionist approach against what are considered to be the culprits for the apparent growing prevalence of AMR and its impacts. Concern about the rise in prevalence of microbial infections that are resistant to therapeutic agents designed to kill them has arisen almost exclusively in relation to human health. (Public awareness and concern about antihelmintic resistance, for which the impacts are much more substantial for animal health, at least in developed temperate countries, are trivial by comparison). Nevertheless, antimicrobial drugs have been, and are, widely used in animal health and production throughout the world, and the contribution of this diverse usage to the ‘global AMR problem’ has historically been controversial. There is growing acceptance, notwithstanding the limitations in causal understanding noted previously, of AMR as an ecological problem of competing populations of microorganisms experiencing both natural and anthropogenic selection pressures in compartments that transcend species and other boundaries. Typifying what is described as a ‘One Health’ problem, AMR is therefore considered to be most amenable to conjoint mitigation efforts in all compartments: i.e. interventions in human health, animal health, food and the environment in a coherent manner. In animals, this calls into question the motivations and practices for antimicrobial drug usage, the majority of which are justified on the basis of promoting animal health and welfare and securing a food supply for a growing human population. Not surprisingly, there are great differences in animal husbandry and food demand, and in availability, access and regulation of antimicrobial usage in animals, and in surveillance of AMR, which are likely to be starkest between developed and developing countries. Thus, it is unlikely that the impacts of AMR, and the impacts of efforts to mitigate AMR that are directed to the ‘animal compartment’ of the ecosystem, will be felt equally across the world.

The integrated assessment of the ecological state of the main rivers of the lake Baikal basin - Verkhnyaya Angara, Tyya, Barguzin, Selenga, Snezhnaya, Bolshaya Rechka, Khilok, Chikoy is based on the assessment of the variability of the basin system under the influence of two groups of indicators: 1) Direct (immediate) impact - the volume of water intake and wastewater discharge, water use and sequential water supply. Assessment of the impact on the state of the above-listed rivers basins from wastewater was performed using the algorithm proposed by A. Korolev et al. (2007). 2) Indirect (mediate) impact - indicators of areal and linear-network impacts on the catchment area. Based on the calculation of the integral anthropogenic pressure on the territory of the above-listed river basins, only the Selenga river experiences an “average” anthropogenic load. On the territory of most river basins, the anthropogenic load is “lowered” and “low”.

The paper is devoted to studying the influence of agricultural lands on the formation of small mammal communities in the pine forests of the Tom River Valley. For the analysis, we took sites of natural and artificial pine forests of different areas experiencing various anthropogenic pressures. A relationship was found between the size of the pine forest and its resistance to invasive species. The creation of artificial pine forests in the forest-steppe does not lead to the formation of typical forest communities of small mammals, due to their limited ability to resettle.

Development of the national economy in the Karatal basin river is characterized by the progressive involvement and development of the resource potential of natural landscapes, the current rate of utilization of which greatly enhances the anthropogenic impact on the natural environment. A significant impact on the formation of the ecological environment of natural landscapes is provided by the rural and water sectors, as well as by industrial facilities related to processing and mining. At the same time, on the one hand the economic activity of the man in the catchment areas of the river basin gives a certain positive effect, and on the other hand, it is accompanied by an unavoidable set of negative ecological consequences that complicate ecological situations in various ranks of natural systems. Such negative natural and man-caused process in human activity occurs as a result of inadequate knowledge of the regularities of interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors, about the processes developing in the natural environment in complex watershed management, which is one of the obstacles on the way to the creation of ecologically sustainable cost-effective water catchment systems. Scientific interest to the assessment of the ecological state of the catchments of rivers and the problem of their complex development have been appeared relatively recently which is explained by the increase in modern conditions of anthropogenic load on the catchment areas, the need to assess the impact of such pressures on the ecological stability of catchments and the emergence of the problem of ensuring the sustainable function of catchments. The catena concept was developed to analyze the regular variability of soil on the slope. The example of this approach consists first in a structural component, the recurring pattern of certain soils in a landscape transects in which every chain element has its place in the chain, a soil has it in a landscape areal. The object of the research is the catchment basin of the Karatal river with a length of 390 km, an area of 19.1 thousand km², which is formed by the merger of three rivers called Tekeliaryk, Chadzha and Kora, sources which are at an altitude of 3200-3900 m. The initial 160 km is mountain character, from the Zhungarian Alatau and below the confluence of Kara and Chizhe River overlooks a wide intermountain plain. Other tributaries are Kara, Terekty, Laba, Balykty, Mokur and the most abundant is Koksu. After the confluence of the tributary of the Koksu River, Karatal flows through the sandy desert of the Southern Balkhash. At a distance of 40 km from the mouth, the river has a delta area of 860 km 2. According to long-term observations, the average annual discharge of the Karatal River in the Ushtobe section is 66.7 m3/s or 2.1 km3/ year.

The fast-urbanizing Indian cities are grappling with rising ecological challenges. Pollution, water insecurity, urban heat, and flooding have increased the vulnerability of the urban population. There is a need to look at urban settlements as a functioning natural ecosystem delineated by administrative boundaries and to evaluate their health regularly through a comprehensive, easy to adopt, structured approach. This study aims to track and evaluate the ecosystem health of three different categories of urban settlements: a group of metropolitan wards, a growing peripheral city, and an emerging town, through adaption of Pressure- State-Response (PSR) framework developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)’. The methodology includes indices-driven change detection of ecosystem components and pressure points on the same, by using spatial and non-spatial data, developing an impact matrix, and prioritized eco plans for action. Increasing built-up surfaces in the peripheral city (11%) and the metropolitan wards (23%) show increased pressure on their ecosystem in the form of reducing pervious surfaces. Increasing water turbidity, land surface temperatures, and aerosol content in the air depict pressure hotspots requiring mitigative, restorative, and preventive action. A significant decrease observed in heavy vegetation in the metropolitan wards (58% in the last 5 years) and an increase in industrial activities and aerosol is observed in conjunction with increasing air temperatures and this points towards an impending change in its livability index due to anthropogenic pressures and climate change. The study concludes that a structured approach can aid in agile and sustainable management of our towns and cities and nature-based solutions provide an opportunity to restore the ecosystem balance. Keywords: Urban Assessment Nature-based solutions, Ecosystem Health, Urban Ecosystem, Urban management

The relatively recent emergence and sustained rise of social protection as a policy agenda in Africa can be understood as either a nationally owned or ‘donor-driven’ process. While elements of both can be seen in different countries at different times, this paper focuses on the pivotal role of transnational actors, specifically international development agencies, as ‘policy pollinators’ for social protection. These agencies deployed a range of tactics to induce African governments to implement cash transfer programmes and establish social protection systems, including: (1) building the empirical evidence base that cash transfers have positive impacts, for advocacy purposes; (2) financing social protection programmes until governments take over this responsibility; (3) strengthening state capacity to deliver social protection, through technical assistance and training workshops; (4) commissioning and co-authoring national social protection policies; (5) encouraging the domestication of international social protection law into national legislation. Despite these pressures and inducements, some governments have resisted or implemented social protection only partially and reluctantly, either because they are not convinced or because their political interests are not best served by allocating scarce resources to cash transfer programmes. This raises questions about the extent to which the agendas of development agencies are aligned or in conflict with national priorities, and whether social protection programmes and systems would flourish or wither if international support was withdrawn.

This research sought to understand the impact of probation inspection on probation policy, practice and practitioners. This important but neglected area of study has significant ramifications because the Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Probation has considerable power to influence policy through its inspection regime and research activities. The study utilised a mixed methodological approach comprising observations of inspections and interviews with people who work in probation, the Inspectorate and external stakeholders. In total, 77 people were interviewed or took part in focus groups. Probation practitioners, managers and leaders were interviewed in the weeks after an inspection to find out how they experienced the process of inspection. Staff at HMI Probation were interviewed to understand what inspection is for and how it works. External stakeholders representing people from the voluntary sector, politics and other non-departmental bodies were interviewed to find out how they used the work of inspection in their own roles. Finally, leaders within the National Probation Service and Her Majesty’s Prisons and Probation Service were interviewed to see how inspection impacts on policy more broadly. The data were analysed thematically with five key themes being identified. Overall, participants were positive about the way inspection is carried out in the field of probation. The main findings are: 1. Inspection places a burden on practitioners and organisations. Practitioners talked about the anxiety that a looming inspection created and how management teams created additional pressures which were hard to cope with on top of already high workloads. Staff responsible for managing the inspection and with leadership positions talked about the amount of time the process of inspection took up. Importantly, inspection was seen to take people away from their day jobs and meant other priorities were side-lined, even if temporarily. However, the case interviews that practitioners take part in were seen as incredibly valuable exercises which gave staff the opportunity to reflect on their practice and receive positive feedback and validation for their work. 2. Providers said that the findings and conclusions from inspections were often accurate and, to some extent, unsurprising. However, they sometimes find it difficult to implement recommendations due to reports failing to take context into account. Negative reports have a serious impact on staff morale, especially for CRCs and there was concern about the impact of negative findings on a provider’s reputation. 3. External stakeholders value the work of the Inspectorate. The Inspectorate is seen to generate highly valid and meaningful data which stakeholders can use in their own roles. This can include pushing for policy reform or holding government to account from different perspectives. In particular, thematic inspections were seen to be useful here. 4. The regulatory landscape in probation is complex with an array of actors working to hold providers to account. When compared to other forms of regulation such as audit or contract management the Inspectorate was perceived positively due to its methodological approach as well as the way it reflects the values of probation itself. 5. Overall, the inspectorate appears to garner considerable legitimacy from those it inspects. This should, in theory, support the way it can impact on policy and practice. There are some areas for development here though such as more engagement with service users. While recognising that the Inspectorate has made a concerted effort to do this in the last two years participants all felt that more needs to be done to increase that trust between the inspectorate and service users. Overall, the Inspectorate was seen to be independent and 3 impartial although this belief was less prevalent amongst people in CRCs who argued that the Inspectorate has been biased towards supporting its own arguments around reversing the now failed policy of Transforming Rehabilitation. There was some debate amongst participants about how the Inspectorate could, or should, enforce compliance with its recommendations although most people were happy with the primarily relational way of encouraging compliance with sanctions for non-compliance being considered relatively unnecessary. To conclude, the work of the Inspectorate has a significant impact on probation policy, practice and practitioners. The majority of participants were positive about the process of inspection and the Inspectorate more broadly, notwithstanding some of the issues raised in the findings. There are some developments which the Inspectorate could consider to reduce the burden inspection places on providers and practitioners and enhance its impact such as amending the frequency of inspection, improving the feedback given to practitioners and providing more localised feedback, and working to reduce or limit perceptions of bias amongst people in CRCs. The Inspectorate could also do more to capture the impact it has on providers and practitioners – both positive and negative - through existing procedures that are in place such as post-case interview surveys and tracking the implementation of recommendations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.