Journal articles: 'Ardl Bounds Test'

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ERDOĞDU, Hamza, and Hasan ÇİÇEK. "Modelling beef consumption in Turkey: the ARDL/bounds test approach." TURKISH JOURNAL OF VETERINARY AND ANIMAL SCIENCES 41 (2017): 255–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.3906/vet-1606-43.

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Murshed, Muntasir. "International Tourism Demand in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach." Journal of Tourism Management Research 5, no. 1 (2018): 50–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.31.2018.51.50.67.

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Muazu, Abdulrazak Umar, and Lawali Mohammad. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2010: ARDL Bounds Test Approach." International Journal of Business Administration and Management Research 1, no. 1 (June 15, 2015): 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.24178/ijbamr.2015.1.1.04.

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This paper analyses the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1970 to 2010 making use of annual time series data. The study employs the bounds testing (ARDL) approach toexamine the long run and short run relationships between public expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The bounds test suggested that the variables of interest put in the framework are bound together in the long-run. The associated equilibrium correction was also significant confirming the existence of long-run relationships. Our findings indicate the impact of total public spending on growth to be negative which is consistent with other past studies. Recurrent expenditure however was found to have little significant positive impact on growth. Therefore, government should increase its spending on infrastructure, social and economic activities.

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Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, Mary Oluwatoyin Agboola, Husam Rjoub, Ibrahim Adeshola, Ephraim Bonah Agyekum, and Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar. "Linking Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Environmental Degradation in China: What Is the Role of Hydroelectricity Consumption?" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 13 (June 29, 2021): 6975. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136975.

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Achieving environmental sustainability has become a global initiative whilst addressing climate change and its effects. Thus, this research re-assessed the EKC hypothesis in China and considered the effect of hydroelectricity use and urbanization, utilizing data from 1985 to 2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method was utilized to assess long-run cointegration, which is reinforced by a structural break. The outcome of the ARDL bounds test confirmed cointegration among the series. Furthermore, the ARDL revealed that both economic growth and urbanization trigger environmental degradation while hydroelectricity improves the quality of the environment. The outcome of the ARDL also validated the EKC hypothesis for China. In addition, the study employed the novel gradual shift causality test to capture causal linkage among the series. The advantage of the gradual shift causality test is that it can capture gradual or smooth shifts and does not necessitate previous information of the number, form of structural break(s), or dates. The outcomes of the causality test revealed causal connections among the series of interest.

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Nezahat, Dogan. "Agriculture and Environmental Kuznets Curves in the case of Turkey: evidence from the ARDL and bounds test." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 62, No. 12 (November 23, 2016): 566–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/112/2015-agricecon.

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Chandio, Abbas Ali, Yuansheng Jiang, and Abdul Rehman. "Energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan: is there a nexus?" International Journal of Energy Sector Management 13, no. 3 (September 2, 2019): 597–609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-08-2018-0009.

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Purpose This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan over the period from 1984 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach This study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of agricultural economic growth in Pakistan. Findings The results of the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration revealed that long-run linkage exists among the study variables. The findings of this paper showed that agricultural economic growth is positively affected by gas consumption and electricity consumption both in the long-run and short run. The long-run and short-run coefficients of gas consumption and electricity consumption were estimated to be 0.906, 0.421, 0.595 and 0.276, respectively. The estimated equation remains stable during the period from 1984 to 2016 as analyzed by the stability tests. Originality/value This study considers the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan by using an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study has three contributions to economic literature:this study used different unit root tests to test stationarity of the variables such as ADF unit root test by Dicky and Fuller and P-P unit root test by Philip and Perron; the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to test the existence of long-run analysis between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth; and to check the robustness, the authors used the Johansen cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between dependent and independent variables.

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Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, Manuel Francisco Coelho, Dilber Çağlar Onbaşıoğlu, Husam Rjoub, Mário Nuno Mata, Paulo Viegas Carvalho, João Xavier Rita, and Ibrahim Adeshola. "Modeling the Dynamic Linkage between Renewable Energy Consumption, Globalization, and Environmental Degradation in South Korea: Does Technological Innovation Matter?" Energies 14, no. 14 (July 14, 2021): 4265. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14144265.

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The present research assesses the influence of globalization and technological innovation on CO2 emissions in South Korea as well as taking into account the role of renewable energy consumption and energy consumption utilizing datasets between 1980 and 2018. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method is utilized to assess long-run cointegration. The outcome of the ARDL bounds test confirmed cointegration among the series. Furthermore, the ARDL reveals that economic growth, energy consumption and globalization trigger environmental degradation while technological innovation improves the quality of the environment. In addition, the study employed the frequency domain causality test to capture causal linkage among the series. The major advantage of this approach is that causal linkage between series can be captured at the short, medium and long term, respectively. The outcomes of the causality test revealed that globalization, technological innovation, economic growth and energy use can predict CO2 emissions in South Korea.

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IYO Ipeghan, Dr, Dr EKPETE Marshall Simon, and EKPETE Kinsley Simon. "Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Approach of Financial Intermediation of Commercial Banks and Risk in Nigeria." Sumerianz Journal of Economics and Finance, no. 312 (December 16, 2020): 246–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.47752/sjef.312.246.264.

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This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediation of commercial banks and risk in Nigeria spanning from 2007-2019 and utilizing the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and Granger causality analysis. The result of the ARDL bounds test reveals a stable long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables with greater bound value of 16.02. The ARDL results also reveal the presence of short and long run positive and significant relationship between loans and advances and risk factors. The finding of the Granger causality reveals bidirectional causality between loans and advances and risk factors. The study recommends that commercial banks should continue their short term lending of credit for investment as default has been drastically reduced in lending to customers.

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Özaydın, Özgür, and H. Alper Güzel. "Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks." Business, Management and Economics Research, no. 56 (June 15, 2019): 77–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.32861/bmer.56.77.85.

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The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil consumption and income in Turkey, using annual data from 1961 to 2016. The stationarity properties of the series are analyzed with Lee and Strazicizh (2003), unit root test allowing for two structural breaks, along with the conventional unit root tests namely ADF, PP and KPSS. Due to conflicting findings of the unit root tests, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration is used to capture the relationship between oil consumption and income. The findings of the ARDL bounds test indicated that oil and income are cointegrated. The causal relationship between the variables is also examined by employing Toda and Yamamoto (1995), approach to Granger non-causality. The outcomes of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995), procedure showed that the direction of the causality is running from real GDP to oil consumption, but not vice versa. Both bounds test and Toda and Yamamoto (1995), test results reveal that, energy conservation policies will not harm economic growth in Turkey.

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Fang, Hao, Tsang-Yao Chang, Yen-Hsien Lee, and Wei-Jui Chen. "The impact of macroeconomic factors on the real estate investment trust index return on Japan, Singapore and China." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 13, no. 4 (December 29, 2016): 242–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.13(4-1).2016.11.

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This study contributes to the existing literature by combining the multiple methods to clarify the influence of the macroeconomic factors on the real estate investment trust (REIT) index in three Asian countries. The authors, first, use an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to find that a long-run equilibrium exists between the REIT index and the interest rate, inflation rate, and stock index for China and Singapore. The authors, then, analyze the long- and short-run elasticity of the macroeconomic variables on the REIT index. Finally, using the Granger non-causality test, the authors demonstrate that a unidirectional relationship, in which inflation-rate shifts cause REIT index changes, exists in Japan and Singapore and that a wealth effect, in which stock index movements cause REIT index changes, exists in Singapore. The findings have economic implications for investors seeking to gain from REITs using macroeconomic factors. Keywords: REITs, macroeconomic factor, ARDL bounds test, ARDL long-run model, error-correction model, Granger non-causality test. JEL Classification: C22, G11, L85, D53, C58, F14

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Ibrahim, Ayuba K., and Shazida Mohd Khan. "Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach." Economics and Business 33, no. 1 (January 1, 2019): 50–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eb-2019-0004.

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Abstract The study examines the long-run relationship between domestic debt and the fiscal policy of economic growth in Nigeria in the period from 1981 to 2013 owing to government reforms in the financial system, particularly due to the establishment of the Debt Management Office (DMO) in 2000 and a new fully funded pension fund scheme, both of which resulted in a resurgence of the debt market. The issue that is often raised is the doubt regarding the stability of the debt and its likely implications for the economy, as well as the unpleasant consequences for the government embarking on consolidation. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the bounds test as proposed by Narayan (2005), anchored on the perspective of the endogenous growth theory. The results reveal that although overall the adverse negative domestic debt hurts the economy, it has a positive effect on the total aggregate government revenue and economic growth in Nigeria in the research period. Furthermore, the paper develops a system to assess the speed of the adjustment mechanism coefficient in an error correction model (ECM).

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Saayman, Andrea, and Melville Saayman. "An ARDL Bounds Test Approach to Modelling Tourist Expenditure in South Africa." Tourism Economics 21, no. 1 (February 2015): 49–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/te.2014.0436.

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Aimola, Akingbade U., and Nicholas M. Odhiambo. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach." Cogent Economics & Finance 9, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 1921905. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1921905.

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Bikorimana, Gerard, Charles Rutikanga, and Didier Mwizerwa. "Linking energy consumption with economic growth: Rwanda as a case study." ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, no. 2 (May 2021): 181–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/efe2020-002008.

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This paper analyzes the link between energy consumption and economic growth in Rwanda for the period 1985-2017. The ARDL bounds test was used to test for the existence of co-integration, while the Toda and Yamamoto granger causality test was applied to test for causal direction. The results from the estimation of the ARDL bounds test showed that there was no evidence of co-integration between the considered variables under study. Additionally, the empirical findings confirmed that there was no relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Rwanda. The findings supported the "neutrality hypothesis" between energy consumption and economic growth. This implies that neither conservative nor expansive policies in relation to energy consumption have any effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the study found a uni-directional granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. The results of this findings are consistent with the "growth hypothesis" which postulates that energy consumption leads to economic growth

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Osadume, Richard, and Uzoma, C. Blessing. "Maritime Trade and Economic Development: A Granger Causality and Bound Test Approach." LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics 11, no. 2 (November 1, 2020): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/logi-2020-0012.

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AbstractThis paper investigates Maritime trade and economic development: A granger causality and Bound test approach. Most scholars believe that maritime trade openness will transform economy into a developed nation while some disagree. The main objective of this research is to examine the relationship between maritime trade and economic development; specifically, to ascertain whether maritime trade granger-causes economic development; and to determine whether there is a co-integration between maritime trade and economic development. The study used secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the United Nations development Programme, and tested the effect of independent variables on a dependent variable. The variables were tested using Stationarity, heteroskedasticity, Ramsey reset, granger-causality and ARDL Bounds test at the 5% level of significance. The findings revealed that maritime trade proxy by trade openness had a significant effect on economic development captured by HDI and the ARDL Bound test showed a significant effect of trade openness on economic development. The study concludes that maritime trade granger-causes economic development with a Bi-directional causal relationship and significant co-integration exists between them; and recommends among others the provision of conducive environment and cheap funding by the government to encourage the growth of maritime trade.

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Goh, Soo Khoon, Tuck Cheong Tang, and Chung Yan Sam. "Are Major US Trading Partners’ Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Bootstrap ARDL." Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research 14, no. 1 (February 2020): 7–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0973801019886481.

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A study by McNown, Sam, and Goh [2018, Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509–1521] has shown that the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith [2001, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326] may draw incorrect conclusions on the status of the cointegration test, if the ARDL bounds test is not implemented correctly. We assess the long-run relationship between US exports and imports as well as between its eight major trading partners (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and the United Kingdom) by applying the newly developed bootstrap ARDL test by McNown et al. (2018). The results show cointegration if exports are used as the dependent variable, but not when imports are being considered as the dependent variable. This suggests that the cointegration result is sensitive to the choice of the dependent variable. We have similar findings when we examine the US and its major trading partners. No long-run relationship exists between exports and imports in the case of the US, which concurs with the finding of Fountas and Wu [1999, International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51–58]. The results also suggest that the US attempts to reduce its bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies may not be appropriate. JEL Classification: F14, C22

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Qamruzzaman, Md, and Jianguo Wei. "Financial Innovation, Stock Market Development, and Economic Growth: An Application of ARDL Model." International Journal of Financial Studies 6, no. 3 (August 2, 2018): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030069.

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This study aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, financial innovation, and stock market development of Bangladesh for the period 1980–2016. To investigate long-run cointegration, this study used the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach. In addition, the Granger-causality test is used to identify directional causality between research variables under the error correction term. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation, stock market development, and economic growth. Furthermore, the findings from the Granger-causality test support bidirectional causality between financial innovation, economic growth and stock market development, and economic growth both in the long run and short run. These findings support the theory that market-based financial development and financial innovation in the financial system can spur economic development.

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ŞAHİN, Dilek. "RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: ARDL BOUNDS TEST APPROACH." INTERNATIONAL REFEREED JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES AND ACADEMIC SCIENCES, no. 15 (March 30, 2016): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.17368/uhbab.20161514583.

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Mahi, Masnun, Seuk Wai Phoong, Izlin Ismail, and Che Ruhana Isa. "Energy–Finance–Growth Nexus in ASEAN-5 Countries: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach." Sustainability 12, no. 1 (December 18, 2019): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12010005.

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This study examines the relationship between energy consumption, financial development and economic growth for ASEAN-5 countries, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, over the period from 1980 to 2017. Finance–growth and energy–growth relationships have been well researched; however, the energy–finance–growth nexus is an equally important but less explored area. Our Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration results suggests that the variables tend to move together in the long run for all countries, apart from Indonesia. Our study also considers the effect of a structural break due to financial crisis and confirms that the break does not affect the long-term relationship among the variables; in other words, the financial crisis does not affect the energy–finance–growth nexus. Hence, considering the consistency of energy consumption, the importance of the energy sector must not be undermined, and appropriate energy policies are instrumental in maintaining a well-managed financial sector for sustainable economic growth.

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Kontonikas, Alexandros. "A new test of the inflation–real marginal cost relationship: ARDL bounds approach." Economics Letters 108, no. 2 (August 2010): 122–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.04.046.

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Garba Mohammed Guza, Ahmed Balarabe Musa, and Sunday Elijah. "Violent Crime and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Test Cointegration." Journal of Economic Info 6, no. 4 (November 24, 2019): 21–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.31580/jei.v6i4.1097.

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This study attempts to examine whether there is a long-run relationship existing between crime rates and unemployment in Nigeria for the period 2004 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was used to determine the cointegration between unemployment and crime rates. The results show that unemployment and crime (murder, armed robbery, robbery, assaults, sexual offense, and cultism) are cointegrated. The empirical findings show that the unemployment rate and violent crime, such as; armed robbery, robbery-murder, assaults, sex violence, and cultism are all cointegrated. The long-run coefficients results indicated that the unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on murder, sex violence, assaults, and cultism

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Kisswani, Khalid M., Amjad M. Kisswani, and Arezou Harraf. "The Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Tourism Receipts for Selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Countries: Do Structural Breaks Matter?" Tourism Analysis 25, no. 4 (December 7, 2020): 383–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.3727/108354220x15758301241891.

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One of the short comings in the tourism literature is that research on the oil price–tourism receipts nexus is limited. However, the available studies, to the best of our knowledge, provide limited evidence on the negative effect of oil prices on tourism receipts. Nevertheless, the related literature did not consider the structural breaks in the analysis, which has proven to be important in the empirical work. As such, in this article we study the oil price–tourism receipts nexus for selected MENA countries in the presence of structural breaks. This is done by adopting the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and incorporating the structural breaks. The findings show that the bounds test provides evidence of a long-run relationship between tourism receipts and oil prices after integrating structural breaks into the ARDL model for most countries.

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Chen, Han, Rui Chen, Shaniel Bernard, and Imran Rahman. "US hotel industry revenue: an ARDL bounds testing approach." International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 31, no. 4 (April 8, 2019): 1720–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijchm-01-2018-0031.

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Purpose This study aims to develop a parsimonious model to estimate US aggregate hotel industry revenue using domestic trips, consumer confidence index, international inbound trips, personal consumption expenditure and number of hotel rooms as predictor variables. Additionally, the study applied the model in six sub-segments of the hotel industry – luxury, upper upscale, upscale, upper midscale, midscale and economy. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly aggregate data from the past 22 years, the study adopted the auto-regressive distribute lags (ARDL) approach in developing the estimation model. Unit root analysis and cointegration test were further utilized. The model showed significant utility in accurately estimating aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue. Findings All predictor variables except number of rooms showed significant positive influences on aggregate hotel industry revenue. Substantial variations were noted regarding estimating sub-segment revenue. Consumer confidence index positively affected all sub-segment revenues, except for upper upscale hotels. Inbound trips by international tourists and personal consumption expenditure positively influenced revenue for all sub-segments but economy hotels. Domestic trips by US residents added significant explanatory power to only upper upscale, upscale and economy hotel revenue. Number of hotel rooms only had significant negative effect on luxury and upper upscale hotel sub-segment revenues. Practical implications Hotel operators can make marketing and operating decisions regarding pricing, inventory allocation and strategic management based on the revenue estimation models specific to their segments. Originality/value It is the first study that adopted the ARDL bound approach and analyzed the predictive capacity of macroeconomic variables on aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue.

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Addey, Kwame Asiam. "A Diagnostic Test for the ‘Dutch Disease’ in the U.S.A using the ARDL Bounds Testing Technique." Research in Applied Economics 11, no. 1 (April 23, 2019): 32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/rae.v11i1.14074.

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This study examines the impact of the most recent oil boom on North Dakota’s agricultural sector. I employ the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to examine short and long run relationships among four labor competing sectors. The model produces an optimal lag order of ARDL (6,6,6,5). Results reveal an 80% speed of adjustment coefficient. This implies that about 80% of any disequilibrium caused by a shock to the economy can be corrected within a quarter of a year. The oil sector has a negative and positive impact on the agricultural and construction sectors respectively but no significant impact on the manufacturing sector. The impulse response function (IRF) from an orthogonalized structural vector autoregression (SVAR) matrix system revealed no deviation from the boom period equilibrium agricultural GDP. Structural spending policies are recommended to curb the negative effects of another oil boom on labor competing sectors. The introduction of an agricultural wage transfer tax will also be helpful in the event of another oil boom.

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Lee, Koon Nam Henry. "Residential property price-stock price nexus in Hong Kong: new evidence from ARDL bounds test." International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis 10, no. 2 (April 3, 2017): 204–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-03-2016-0020.

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Purpose This study aims to investigate the cointegration and causality relationships between Hong Kong’s residential property price and stock price, using quarterly data, from the 1st quarter of 1980 to the 3rd quarter of 2015. Design/methodology/approach In contrast to other studies, the cointegration test used is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration (bounds testing) approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) that based on the estimation of an unrestricted error correction model and the causality test is based on non-causality test of Granger et al. (2000). Moreover, this research employs recursive least square procedures and Chow (1960) breakpoint test to detect unknown structural break and variation of relationships between residential property and stock price over the whole sample period. Findings The results of ARDL cointegration tests running from stock to residential property markets provide strong evidence to support the hypothesis that the stock and residential properties are cointegrated. The results of Granger et al. (2000) non-causality test support the view of wealth effect that stock price has an important causal effect on residential property price in Hong Kong but not vice versa. In addition, the results of recursive ordinary least squares coefficients estimates and Chow (1960) test (breakpoint test) for structural instability confirm the variation of the relationships between stock and residential property markets over the sample period. Research limitations/implications The empirical results from cointegration and causality tests suggest that the residential asset returns are better predicted by including the lagged difference values of stock price. Originality/value This is the pioneering study to examine the cointegration and causality study of stock and residential property price in Hong Kong by employing Pesaran ARDL cointegration approach and Granger non-causality approach. Investors are able to perform an effective evaluation to assist in allocating investment funds, and the government bodies can implement supplement housing policy in response to the public needs.

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LÖGÜN, Anıl, and Rahman AYDIN. "INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURKEY AND DEVELOPED STOCK MARKETS IN THE PANDEMIC PERIOD: ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH." EUROASIA JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & HUMANITIES 8, no. 21 (July 25, 2021): 36–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.38064/eurssh.221.

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The integration of stock markets is an essential issue for international investors who aim to make short and long term investments. This paper examines Turkey and developed stock markets co-movements during the pandemic. International portfolio diversification advantages are investigated for Turkish investors who have a portfolio in developed markets. For this purpose, the long-term relationship between stock markets is analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test. The study covers January 2019 and April 2021, and this period is divided into two separate periods, pre-pandemic and pandemic. The results of ARDL bounds tests have not found a cointegration relationship between stock markets in both the pre-pandemic period and the pandemic period. Granger causality test results show that NIKKEI 225 (Japan), DAX (Germany), FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) and CAC 40 (France) are the cause of BIST 100 (Turkey) in the pre-pandemic period. However, Granger causality test results show that there is no causality relationship during the pandemic period. Turkish stock market investors investing in developed stock markets will benefit from portfolio diversification in the long term.

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Chandio, Abbas Ali, Yuansheng Jiang, and Abdul Rehman. "Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production." Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies 26, no. 1 (June 7, 2019): 139–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jabes-10-2018-0084.

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

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Magazzino, Cosimo. "GDP, energy consumption and financial development in Italy." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 12, no. 1 (April 3, 2018): 28–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-01-2017-0004.

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Purpose This study aims to explore the relationship among energy consumption, real income, financial development and oil prices in Italy over the period 1960-2014. Design/methodology/approach Different econometric techniques – such as the General Methods of Moment (GMM) or the AutoRegressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) bounds test – are usually used in the empirical analysis. Moreover, both the Toda and Yamamoto causality tests and the Granger causality tests are applied to the data. Findings The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that the variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1). The ARDL bounds F-test reveals an evidence of a long-run relationship among the four variables at 1% significance level. Moreover, an increase in real GDP and oil prices has a significant effect on energy consumption in the long run. The coefficients of estimated error correction term are also negative and statistically significant. In addition, the paper explores the causal relationship between the variables by using a VAR framework, with Toda and Yamamoto but also Granger causality tests, within both multivariate and bivariate systems. The findings indicate that energy consumption is affected by real GDP. Originality/value The study also filled the literature gap of applying ARDL technique to examine this relevant issue for Italy.

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Orji, Anthony, Jonathan E. Gbuabor, Christian E. Ugwu, and Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji. "Cash Reserve Requirement and Credit to SMEs in Nigeria: An ARDL Bounds Test Aproach." Journal of Asian Business Strategy 9, no. 1 (2019): 10–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.1006.2019.91.10.28.

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Hoque, Mohammad Monjurul, and Zulkornain Yusop. "Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach." Journal of Asian Economics 21, no. 1 (February 2010): 37–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2009.09.004.

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Joshi, Uttam Lal. "Effect of Money Supply on Inflation in Nepal: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test." International Research Journal of MMC 2, no. 1 (February 23, 2021): 84–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/irjmmc.v2i1.35134.

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This study explores the long-run and short-run relationship of money supply and inflation in the context of Nepal. Data are extracted from Economic Survey of Nepal since 1964/65 to 2018/19 to obtain the relationship. ARDL Bounds test is used for cointegration test where the dependent variable is inflation and money supply and Indian inflation are taken as independent variables to estimate the model. Result shows the long-run cointegration between the variables reveals long-run relationship and the error correction term is found to be negative (-0.98) and significant (p=0.02). The study suggests that policy makers can reduce the impact of money supply on inflation and should focus on the control of inflation adopting monetary and fiscal policy mechanism. Creeping inflation in the pace of economic growth is desirable and successful cure of inflation will help in stability and growth of the country.

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Maria Shams Khakwani and Rehana Kouser. "Bidirectional Relationship between Stock Market Decline and Liquidity: A Study of Emerged & Emerging Economies." Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies 7, no. 1 (January 26, 2021): 37–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/jbsee.v7i1.1532.

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This study intends to examine the nature & direction of relationship between stock market movements, particularly market decline, and its liquidity in 14 selected emerged and emerging economies (G8+5 and Pakistan) for January 2001 through December 2017 by applying Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test and Granger-causality test. Trading value and turn over ratio are employed to measure market liquidity. Results of trading value Granger-causality test highlight the evidence of no causality in Germany & India. Bi-directional causality exists in Pakistan only. Uni-directional causality subsists only in Russia at 10% significance level from trading value to market return. However, from market return to trading value, results demonstrate the presence of uni-directional causality at 5% significance level for Brazil, Japan. Canada, China, France, Italy, UK, USA, South Africa and Mexico. Negative returns are used to represent the notion of market decline. The results exhibited by both proxies of liquidity demonstrate that two-way association exists between stock market decline and liquidity in the long term. Thus co-integration in long-run is suggested by ARDL bounds test at 1% significance level for all the emerging and emerged countries in the sample.

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Rehman, Abdul, Muhammad Irfan, Sehresh Hena, and Abbas Ali Chandio. "By applying an ARDL bounds testing approach and causality test to investigate the electricity consumption and production with economic growth." World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development 17, no. 2 (December 10, 2019): 182–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/wjstsd-08-2019-0054.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate the electricity consumption and production and its linkage to economic growth in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The authors used an augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test to check the stationarity of the variables, while an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and causality test were applied to investigate the variables long-term association with the economic growth. Findings The study results show that electricity consumption in the agriculture, commercial and industrial sector has significant association with economic growth, while electricity consumption in the household and street lights demonstrate a non-significant association with the economic growth. Furthermore, results also exposed that electricity production from coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and oil sources have significant association with the economic growth of Pakistan. Originality/value This study made a contribution to the literature regarding electricity consumption and production with economic growth in Pakistan by using an ARDL bounds testing approach and causality test. This study provides a guideline to the government of Pakistan that possible steps are needed to improve the electricity production and supply to fulfill the country demand.

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Hamid, Kamran. "Is Foreign Direct Investment a Cause of Environmental Degradation in Pakistan? An ARDL Approach to Cointegration." Journal of Management and Research 3, no. 2 (November 29, 2019): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.29145/jmr/32/0302003.

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This study has investigated the empirical relationship between FDI and environmental degradation in Pakistan and 43 years of data is used in the study started from 1972 to 2014. Empirical tests show that there exist mix-cointegrating series, so ARDL bounds testing is applied to check the short-long run cointegration among the variables. Results concluded that FDI causes CO2 emissions in long and short-run both. To check the direction of causality between variables, an ARDL Granger test is applied. It proved that FDI and CO2 emissions have bidirectional causality and causing each other from both ways.

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Menegaki, Angeliki N. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies." Economies 7, no. 4 (October 18, 2019): 105. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies7040105.

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A vast number of the energy-growth nexus researchers, as well as other “X-variable-growth nexus” studies, such as for example the tourism-growth nexus, the environment-growth nexus or the food-growth nexus have used the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds test approach for cointegration testing. Their research papers rarely include all the ARDL procedure steps in a detailed way and thus they leave other researchers confused with the series of steps that must be followed and the best implementation paradigms so that they not allow any obscure aspects. This paper is a comprehensive review that suggests the steps that need to be taken before the ARDL procedure takes place as well as the steps that should be taken afterward with respect to causality investigation and robust analysis.

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Chuttoo, Usha Devi. "Effect of Economic Growth on Unemployment and Validity of Okun’s Law in Mauritius." Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 12, no. 2 (January 23, 2020): 231–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910119886934.

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This study examines the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Mauritius. The methodology adopted for this study is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds cointegration test, ARDL error-correction model (ARDL-ECM) using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach and Okun’s law-gap version. ARDL-ECM estimates the long-run and short-run relationship between economic growth and unemployment. The validity of Okun’s law is tested in the Mauritian context and Okun’s coefficient is thereby estimated. The results obtained from the tests show that both in the long run and short run, there is a negative cointegration between economic growth and unemployment, but it is not statistically significant. Whereas, the result of Okun’s law-gap version shows that Okun’s law is indeed valid in the small economy of Mauritius. From the Okun’s coefficient obtained, it is concluded that 4 percent change in gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate changes unemployment rate by 1 percent in the opposite direction in Mauritius.

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Elian, Mohammad I., Nabeel Sawalha, and Ahmad Bani-Mustafa. "Revisiting the FDI–Growth Nexus: ARDL Bound Test for BRICS Standalone Economies." Modern Applied Science 14, no. 6 (May 13, 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/mas.v14n6p1.

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In this paper the author tests for the short-run dynamics and long-run cointegration relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) standalone economies controlling for real exchange rate, trade openness, and domestic investment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method of cointegration is used to test for the long-run relationship of our FDI time series model by investigating annual macroeconomic datasets for the years 1981 to 2018 (inclusive). Coupled with the ARDL, the error correction model is applied to test for the short-run dynamics, while the Toda Yamamoto test is used to examine the causality direction between the constructs of interest. The Breusch-Godfrey and Ljung-Box are used as diagnostic tests for the ARDL assumptions of normality, independency, and autocorrelation in residuals, while the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test is used to test for heteroscedasticity. According to the short-run estimates, all variables have a significant lagged impact on FDI inflows with slight differences among countries. As for the long run, estimates reveal a positive and significant impact of GDP on FDI inflows for Russia, India, China, and South Africa but a positive and insignificant relationship for Brazil. The long-run estimates for the controlling variables evidence varied results among the BRICS countries. In contrast to Brazil and Russia, the Toda Yamamoto causality test discloses a significant and unidirectional flow between the GDP growth and FDI inflows for India, China, and South Africa. The results have meaningful implications for policy reform structures, economic integration among economies, multinational firms, and portfolio managers.

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Sheikh, Muhammad Ramzan, Muhammad Hanif Akhtar, Muhammad Nauman Abbasi, and Fahid Subhania. "Economic Determinants of Tax Buoyancy in Pakistan: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach." Review of Economics and Development Studies 4, no. 1 (June 1, 2018): 11–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/reads.v4i1.276.

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Fiscal policy, being the policy of government expenditures and revenues can play an imperative role in mobilization of resources. Tax revenues determine the capability of an economy to finance government spending but tax situation in many developing countries like Pakistan is very unfortunate. This study explores the economic determinants of tax buoyancy in Pakistan for the period of 1996 to 2016. For this purpose, aggregate and disaggregated analyses of various types of taxes have been conducted using the ARDL bounds test technique. The findings of the study demonstrate that various taxes buoyancies have mixed results with various economic factors.

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Bekhet, Hussain Ali. "Examining the Equilibrium Relationships between Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Employment in Manufacturing and Services Sectors: Evidence from Malaysia." Journal of Social and Development Sciences 4, no. 1 (January 30, 2013): 32–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jsds.v4i1.733.

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The current paper examines the long-run and short-run equilibrium relationships between FDI inflows and employment in Malaysian manufacturing and services sectors using ARDL approach for the 19722011 period. It employs ADF and PP tests to detect the stationary levels of above variables. Also, it utilizes the bounds F-statistics test to identify the co-integration among variables. Results of ARDL approach indicate the presence of significant long-run and short-run equilibrium relationships between FDI inflows and employment in manufacturing and services sectors. The paperâ€™s findings are of particular interest and importance to Malaysian policy makers towards increasing FDI inflows and employment in manufacturing and services sectors.

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Özaydın, Özgür. "Energy Prices-Inflation Nexus: A Historical Analysis for the Case of Ottoman Empire." International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, no. 54 (April 5, 2019): 86–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.54.86.93.

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In this paper, the link between energy prices and price level is investigated from a historical perspective for the case of Ottoman Empire during the period 1885-1914. Although the unit root test results revealed that none of the variables are integrated of second or higher order, the findings of the unit root tests were conflicting. Therefore, to investigate the dynamic relations between energy prices and inflation, ARDL approach to cointegration is employed. The results of the bounds tests showed that energy prices and CPI were cointegrated. Furthermore, ARDL long-run results showed that a 1% change in inflation causes a 0.85% change in energy prices in same direction.

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Yaya, Keho. "Testing the Long-Run Fisher Effect in Selected African Countries: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test." International Journal of Economics and Finance 7, no. 12 (November 24, 2015): 168. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v7n12p168.

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<p>This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis for a sample of ten African countries. Recognizing the possibility of spurious regression results, we undertook unit root and cointegration tests. We found nominal interest rates to be I(1) series while inflation rates are I(0) series. Hence, we employed the bounds test to cointegration. The results provide evidence supporting the full Fisher effect only in Kenya. In Cote d’Ivoire and Gabon, we found a positive but less than one-for-one reaction of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation rates, lending support to the partial Fisher effect. For the other seven countries, the results suggest no evidence of long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation.</p>

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Hasan, Md, Md Sanaullah, Mir Chowdhury, and Anita Zaman. "Trade-led Growth and Growth-led Trade Hypotheses in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach." Journal of Economics, Management and Trade 18, no. 3 (January 10, 2017): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2017/26758.

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Wada, Isah. "Dynamic causality in energy production and output growth in Nigeria revisited: ARDL bounds test approach." Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12, no. 11 (July 5, 2017): 945–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2017.1327995.

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NASREEN, SAMIA, and SOFIA ANWAR. "FINANCIAL STABILITY AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN SOUTH ASIA: EVIDENCE FROM TIME-SERIES DATA." Singapore Economic Review 65, no. 02 (March 8, 2017): 303–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590817500011.

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Using the aggregate financial stability index (AFSI) which measures the gradual progression and changes in financial market stability, this paper empirically evaluates the impact of financial and economic integration on financial stability in South Asian countries using time-series data for the period 1980–2012. Auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to ensure long-run relationship between variables. Bound F-test results confirm the long-run relationship between selected variables. The estimated results show that economic and financial integration has exerted a significant negative effect on financial stability in long run.

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Işik, Sefa, and Fatih Cemil ÖZBUĞDAY. "The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices in Turkey: A case study." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 67, No. 3 (March 19, 2021): 101–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/260/2020-agricecon.

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Food price inflation has been a significant subject of debate in Turkey since food prices soared in 2018. The study examines the linkage between agricultural input prices and food prices in Turkey by using quantitative method approaches with the monthly data spanning from 2015-M01 to 2020-M01. A co-integration analysis is performed using the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach and Maki co-integration test with structural breaks. Additionally, the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) are applied to verify the results of the ARDL approach. The analysis demonstrates a significant, long-running relationship between agricultural input prices and food prices in Turkey. The long-run agricultural input price elasticities are found to be in the range of 1.30–1.36.

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Kueh, Jerome, and Yong Sze Wei. "FDI-Led-Growth in Malaysia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing Approach." International Business Research 11, no. 11 (October 11, 2018): 46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v11n11p46.

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This study intends to investigate the validity of the foreign direct investment, FDI-led-growth hypothesis in Malaysia in this era. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach is adopted to examine the impact of FDI inflow towards growth of Malaysia based on annually data from 1980 to 2016. Empirical results indicate that FDI inflow has significant positive impact on economic growth. This implies that FDI inflow remain important tool for stimulating economic growth of Malaysia. In addition, there is a negative impact of FDI inflow on economic growth during the 1997 Asian Financial crisis and positive impact during the 2008 Global Financial crisis. In terms of policy recommendation, the policy makers should continue to develop strategies to further attract FDI that will contribute to increasing the productivity in the country.

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Mohamed Aslam, Ahamed Lebbe, and Selliah Sivarajasingham. "Empirical relationship between workers' remittances and financial development (an ARDL cointegration approach for Sri Lanka)." International Journal of Social Economics 47, no. 11 (October 13, 2020): 1381–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-03-2020-0157.

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PurposeThe purpose of this study aims to investigate the nature of the relationship between workers' remittances and financial development (FD) in Sri Lanka for the period from 1975 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study used both the exploratory data analysis and inferential data analysis (IDA) techniques to test the objective of this study. The IDA technique consisted of the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron unit root tests, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds cointegration technique, the Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis.FindingsThe unit root test results show that the variables are in mixed order. The empirical results of cointegration confirm that workers' remittances have a beneficial long-run relationship with FD in Sri Lanka. The Granger causality test result indicates that there is a bidirectional relationship between workers' remittances and FD. The impulse response analysis indicates that a positive shock to workers' remittance has an immediate significant positive impact on the FD of up to 10 years.Practical implicationsThe analytical techniques used in this study explain how workers' remittances induce FD in Sri Lanka.Originality/valueThis study fills an important gap in the academic literature by using newly developed ARDL bounds cointegration techniques in Sri Lanka, by using impulse response function analysis, and by studying the dynamic relationship between workers' remittances and FD using time series data.

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Adil, Masudul Hasan, Aadil Ahmad Ganaie, and B. Kamaiah. "Wagner’s Hypothesis: An Empirical Verification." IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review 6, no. 1 (November 29, 2016): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2277975216667095.

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This study explores the relationship between public expenditure (PE) and gross domestic product (GDP) to verify whether the Wagner’s hypothesis holds good in the Indian context. We cover the period from 1970 to 2013 and use econometric tools like Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) test to check the long-run and causal relationship among the variables. The results of the bounds test suggest that there exists cointegration between PE and GDP, but we found weak evidence for Wagner’s hypothesis as well.

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박정일. "The long-term Exchange rate and Interest Rate Exposures of Korean Corporations - Using ARDL-bounds test." Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences 17, no. 3 (August 2016): 395–432. http://dx.doi.org/10.15818/ihss.2016.17.3.395.

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Atkins, Frank J., and Patrick J. Coe. "An ARDL bounds test of the long-run Fisher effect in the United States and Canada." Journal of Macroeconomics 24, no. 2 (June 2002): 255–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0164-0704(02)00019-8.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Ardl Bounds Test'

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