To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: ARDL Estimation.
Journal articles on the topic 'ARDL Estimation'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 journal articles for your research on the topic 'ARDL Estimation.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse journal articles on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Lee, Kyung Hee, and Kyung Soo Kim. "Estimation of Tourism Demand using ARDL model." Korean Corporation Management Review 24, no. 4 (2017): 59–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.21052/kcmr.2017.24.4.03.
Full text
2
Suharno, Suharno, and Nurul Anwar. "The Energy Demand Elasticity in Relation to Gross Domestic Product in Indonesia: Sectoral Approach." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13, no. 4 (2022): 634–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13385.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims at estimating the energy demand elasticity in relation to gross domestic product in Indonesia based on data from 1995 to 2018. The sectors examined are industry, trading, transportation, and housing sectors. The method of analysis is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). An interesting estimation result here is that the elasticity of the industry sector is negative both short and long term. The other three sectors show positive elasticity. This paper contributes to the discussion of the energy demand ARDL model to be used as a reference in developing countries.
3
Sumaira Batool, Dr. Saima Urooge, Syed Muhammad Faraz Raza, Muhammad Qasim Javaid, and Asif Ali. "Impressions of Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services Exports on Economic Expansion in Pakistan." Critical Review of Social Sciences Studies 3, no. 1 (2025): 1928–37. https://doi.org/10.59075/fpvyya76.
Full textAbstract:
This study’s objective is to examine the linear impressions of disaggregated industrial exports including agriculture, manufacturing and services on economic expansion in Pakistan. Rendering to this, the data of export indicators is taken from 1980 to 2020. For estimation purposes, existing study has applied the linear ARDL model for long and short term estimations. The linear short-term estimation indicate that agriculture exports and the manufacturing exports has surged the economic expansion of Pakistan in the short term. In accordance with the long term ARDL linear estimation, the values of agricultural exports and manufacturing exports are increasing Pakistan’s economic expansion. Simultaneously, the services exports are negatively influencing economic progress of Pakistan, while the effect is inconsequential. At the same time, it is evident that the error corrected term has adjusted the error from short to long period of given time. Therefore, by implementing a comprehensive policy strategy, Pakistan can optimize its capabilities in high-value service sectors like information and technology, banking, and professional consulting, therefore fostering sustained economic expansion.
4
Takashi, Fukuda. "Empirical assessment of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand using the ARDL and FMOLS techniques." Energy Economics Letters 10, no. 1 (2023): 19–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.55493/5049.v10i1.4712.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of the present paper is to empirically investigate whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is validated for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand over the period of 1971-2014. The estimation techniques employed are the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), and we conduct the Granger causality tests to draw interpretation. We take CO2 emissions as the dependent variable, and those endogenous variables of economic growth, the square of economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, and foreign direct investment (FDI), together with the structural break dummy (for the ARDL estimation only). The EKC hypothesis is statistically confirmed for Thailand by both the ARDL and FMOLS estimations, but it is not so for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines. One policy implication is that, regardless of whether the EKC hypothesis is confirmed or not, the four ASEAN countries are required to ensure the compatibility between economic growth and environmental improvement by persistently proposing and implementing effective policies to fight against environmental degradation. Another implication is that, policymakers should consider how to convert their countries from pollution heaven countries to environmentally-friendly ones, correctly evaluating the impact of globalization on economic growth and environmental degradation.
5
Afsane, Rafiee. "Estimation of Iranian Natural Gas Demand Function Using ARDL Estimation Method." International Journal of Social Science and Human Research 04, no. 05 (2021): 1225–33. https://doi.org/10.47191/ijsshr/v4-i6-01.
Full textAbstract:
Based on its advantages and providing a big part of total energy in the country, natural gas lies in a prominent place among other energy sources. Making cognition and accurate identification of practical elements on the volume of periodic (short and long) demands on natural gas can help us outline suitable plans and policies related to energy. By this view, practical items on natural gas demands had been evaluated. The ARDL pattern with distributed interruptions and ECM model was employed to investigate the function of demands on natural gas during the years from 1976 to 2013. The result proved all coefficients of variables in short and long periods. The natural gas price ratio confirms a contrary relation between natural gas demand and its price in the short term. This ratio in the long-term shows a direct connection between them. Related results to the electricity price ratio show that the electricity price variable has the most positive effect on natural gas demands . Related results show that natural gas's long-term price and income strain are more than short-term ones. Also, results show that natural gas in short periods is a non-strained and necessary commodity. Being non-strained in the short-term results in a lack of efficiency of price policies. So, releasing the price of natural gas can prevent unnecessary consumption of this valuable fuel. Price strain of natural gas in long spans proves that natural gas is a complete strain commodity. This fact is based on why there is some replacement for natural gas, such as electricity and gasoline, for long periods. The minus behind income strain shows that natural gas in the long-term is as low stuff. Intersecting the price of electricity in short and long-term investigations is positive and shows a substitutional relation between electricity and natural gas. The negative intersecting strain of price of kerosene shows that natural gas and kerosene in both the short and long-term are complementary. Also, the gasoline price ratio confirms the complementary relationship in the short-term and substitutional relation in the long-term between natural gas and gasoline.
6
Chen, Han, Rui Chen, Shaniel Bernard, and Imran Rahman. "US hotel industry revenue: an ARDL bounds testing approach." International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 31, no. 4 (2019): 1720–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijchm-01-2018-0031.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose This study aims to develop a parsimonious model to estimate US aggregate hotel industry revenue using domestic trips, consumer confidence index, international inbound trips, personal consumption expenditure and number of hotel rooms as predictor variables. Additionally, the study applied the model in six sub-segments of the hotel industry – luxury, upper upscale, upscale, upper midscale, midscale and economy. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly aggregate data from the past 22 years, the study adopted the auto-regressive distribute lags (ARDL) approach in developing the estimation model. Unit root analysis and cointegration test were further utilized. The model showed significant utility in accurately estimating aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue. Findings All predictor variables except number of rooms showed significant positive influences on aggregate hotel industry revenue. Substantial variations were noted regarding estimating sub-segment revenue. Consumer confidence index positively affected all sub-segment revenues, except for upper upscale hotels. Inbound trips by international tourists and personal consumption expenditure positively influenced revenue for all sub-segments but economy hotels. Domestic trips by US residents added significant explanatory power to only upper upscale, upscale and economy hotel revenue. Number of hotel rooms only had significant negative effect on luxury and upper upscale hotel sub-segment revenues. Practical implications Hotel operators can make marketing and operating decisions regarding pricing, inventory allocation and strategic management based on the revenue estimation models specific to their segments. Originality/value It is the first study that adopted the ARDL bound approach and analyzed the predictive capacity of macroeconomic variables on aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue.
7
Kripfganz, Sebastian, and Daniel C. Schneider. "ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models." Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata 23, no. 4 (2023): 983–1019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867x231212434.
Full textAbstract:
We present a command, ardl, for the estimation of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models in a time-series context. The ardl command can be used to fit an ARDL model with the optimal number of autoregressive and distributed lags based on the Akaike or Bayesian (Schwarz) information criterion. The regression results can be displayed in the ARDL levels form or in the error-correction representation of the model. The latter separates long-run and short-run effects and is available in two different parameterizations of the long-run (cointegrating) relationship. The popular bounds-testing procedure for the existence of a long-run levels relationship is implemented as a postestimation feature. Comprehensive critical values and approximate p-values obtained from response-surface regressions facilitate statistical inference.
8
Akhter, Afsana, Sarder Abdulla Al Shiam, Mohammad Ridwan, et al. "Assessing the Impact of Private Investment in AI and Financial Globalization on Load Capacity Factor: Evidence from United States." Journal of Environmental Science and Economics 3, no. 3 (2024): 99–127. http://dx.doi.org/10.56556/jescae.v3i3.977.
Full textAbstract:
The need for sustainable solutions has increased globally as a result of the growing environmental problems brought about by urbanization and industrialization. Given this, private investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has become a viable means of promoting environmental sustainability, mainly because of AI's capacity to minimize ecological footprints and maximize resource utilization. This research investigates the role of private investment in AI in promoting environmental sustainability in the United States from 1990 to 2019. It also analyzes the impact of financial globalization, technological innovation, and urbanization by testing the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis. The research utilizes stationarity tests, which indicate that the variables are free from unit root problems and exhibit mixed orders of integration. Using the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model bound test, the analysis finds that the variables are cointegrated in the long run. The short-run and long-run estimations of the ARDL model confirm the existence of the LCC hypothesis in the United States, revealing a U-shaped association between income and load capacity factor. The findings show that private investment in AI has a significant positive correlation with the load capacity factor, thus promoting environmental sustainability. Conversely, technological innovation and financial globalization exhibit a negative correlation with the load capacity factor in both the short and long run. To validate the ARDL estimation approach, the study employs Fully Modified OLS, Dynamic OLS, and Canonical Correlation Regression estimation methods, all of which support the ARDL outcomes. Additionally, the Granger Causality test reveals a unidirectional causal connection from private investment in AI, financial globalization, economic growth, technological innovation, and urbanization to the load capacity factor.
9
Abid Hussein*, Mayson, and Munaf Yousif Hmood. "Nonstationary Time Series Models Using ARDL and NARDL Estimation." Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences 30, no. 141 (2024): 439–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.33095/afbrge60.
Full textAbstract:
The paper features an examination of the link between the behavior of the Money supply and Bank deposit in both an autoregressive distributed lag ARDL, plus a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag NARDL framework. The regression relationship between any two nonstationary time series suffer from the problem of superior regression and the results may be incorrect and unreliable, and to overcome this problem the aim of this paper was find a balanced relationship in the long - run between the variables of Money supply and Bank deposits using the method of cointegration by focusing on the behavior of the residuals of the cointegration model based on monthly data for a time series for the period (2010-2015). The time series stationary test was done by conducting the Unit Root Test based on the Philips-Perron test to find out the stationary of the variables and then detect the existence of the cointegration using the bounds testing, the tests showed the nonstationary of the time series at level I(0) and their become stationary after taking the first differences I(1). Bounds test showed the existence of cointegration .The Error correction model for the ARDL model was the best, despite the convergence of most of the test results for the two models, but the ARDL model was the more accurate with the speed of adjustment in the short -run to return to long-run equilibrium, as it reached (37%) and a period of two months for the ARDL model, while the percentage for the NARDL model was equal to (28%) and a period of time of approximately three and a half months.
10
Ayele, Getaneh Mihret. "Does real exchange rate devaluation improve the current account balance of highly indebted low income countries?" African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 10, no. 2 (2019): 212–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-11-2017-0287.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether real exchange rate devaluation improves the current account balance of four highly indebted low-income countries of East Africa. Design/methodology/approach The pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used for panel data from four countries over the period 1970–2016. The paper also applied bound testing and ARDL model for time-series data from individual sample countries. Findings The panel PMG/ARDL estimation result reveals that real exchange rate devaluation has no significant impact on the current account balance, both in the short and long run. However, the time-series analysis using the bound testing and restricted ARDL estimation suggests that real exchange rate devaluation improves the current account balance in the long run for only Ethiopia. The overall empirical results reveal that the current account balance would improve with the rising domestic income while it deteriorates with increasing foreign income and external indebtedness in the long run. Originality/value The paper is original.
11
Koyuncu, Cuneyt, Mustafa Unver, and Muhammed Veysel Kaya. "Asymmetric Short-Run and Long-Run Impact of Economic Globalization on Crop Production in Turkiye." Romanian Agricultural Research 40 (2023): 687–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.59665/rar4064.
Full textAbstract:
This study explores short-run and long-run relationship between economic globalization and crop production in Turkiye by utilizing linear and nonlinear ARDL models for two distinct indicators of crop production. Based on linear and nonlinear ARDL bound tests, the relevant variables are co-integrated and hence they move together in the long run. Economic globalization and crop production possess statistically significant positive association in the long run in linear ARDL models. On the other hand, short-run and longrun symmetry test results disclose that the relationship of economic globalization and crop production in the short-run and long-run is asymmetric. According to the estimation findings, positive and negative changes in economic globalization augment crop production. Meanwhile several tests were conducted to check the statistical validity and robustness of our findings. The results of those diagnostic tests show that neither linear ARDL models nor nonlinear ARDL models incorporate problems in the sense of non-normality, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, model misspecification, and parameter instability.
12
Jerry Oziegbe, David, and Perpetual Omoyemi Itua. "Non-Oil Tax Revenue and Infrastructural Development in Nigeria." Central European Economic Journal 11, no. 58 (2024): 200–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2024-0014.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract In Nigeria, there has been a decline in oil revenue. This has impacted negatively on infrastructural development. This paper seeks to examine the effect of non-oil revenue as an alternative source of revenue for infrastructural development. The research design of the study was the ex post facto research design. The source of data was the secondary source and a time series of data from 1981 to 2021 was used in carrying out the research. The Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds test was used to determine the long-run and short-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. It was observed that the variables are co-integrated, and as such, a long-run and short-run relationship exists among the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the ARDL short-run estimation result shows that the non-oil tax variables (proxied by VAT, CUSTD, and CIT) have a positive and significant effect on infrastructural development (proxied by total electricity production measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh) in Nigeria. In tandem, the ARDL long-run estimation results reveal that value-added tax, customs duties, and company income tax have a positive and significant impact on infrastructural development in Nigeria. Hence, an increase in the non-oil tax revenue base will boost infrastructural development in Nigeria in the long run. This finding is in tandem with the ARDL short-run estimation result. Therefore, it is inferred that Nigeria can experience infrastructural development when genuine commitment is made to explore an increase in non-oil revenue generation instead of being over-dependent on oil revenue.
13
Medeiros, Marcelo C., and Eduardo F. Mendes. "Adaptive LASSO estimation for ARDL models with GARCH innovations." Econometric Reviews 36, no. 6-9 (2017): 622–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2017.1307319.
Full text
14
Lamzihri, Othmane, and Kamli Mohamed El. "Estimation de la loi d'Okun avec le modèle ARDL." International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics 2, no. 5 (2021): 680–93. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5539980.
Full textAbstract:
Cet article propose des estimations de vérification de la loi d’Okun pour les pays développés et les pays en voie de développement, à savoir : la France, l’Italie, l’Espagne, le Maroc, la Tunisie, l’Égypte et l’Afrique du Sud, sur une échéance de 1991-2020 pour les deux variables : « Taux de croissance » et « Taux de chômage ». Nous avons abordé une démarche économétrique d’un modèle de régression simple, passant par la stationnarité, cointégration et robustesse du modèle. En effet, l’existence d’une relation linéaire par le modèle ARDL est vérifiée pour tous les pays sauf pour l’Italie qui suit un NARDL, ainsi que la relation d’Okun est acceptée. Les résultats empiriques révèlent l’existence de la loi d’Okun dans tous ces économies. Nous avons conclu qu’il y a un impact négatif et significatif de l’écart du PIB réel sur le taux de chômage à la fois à court et à long terme, avec une augmentation de 1% du PIB réel réduit le taux de chômage de 0.11% au Maroc, 0.01% en Tunisie, 0.53% en Égypte, 0.74% pour la France et 0.24% en Espagne. <strong>Mots clés : </strong>Chômage, Croissance économique, Pays développés, Pays en développement, Loi Okun, ARDL, NARDL. <strong>Classification JEL: </strong>C51 <strong>Type de l’article : </strong>Recherche appliquée
15
Smahi, Ahmed. "The Determinants of the Foreign Direct Investment on the Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of the Algerian Economy." American Finance & Banking Review 3, no. 1 (2018): 5–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.46281/amfbr.v3i1.136.
Full textAbstract:
Foreign direct investment in Algeria as a percentage of GDP represented 0.9% during the last decade. The goal of this study is to assess the effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Algerian economy through an empirical analysis by applying the bounds testing ARDL and ECM-ARDL using annual data for the period 1970-2014. As far as the role of FDI is concerned, we shall try to highlight its effect that may show causal relationships to non-hydrocarbon GDP, non-hydrocarbon export, industry and employment in long run. Our estimation of an ARDL model indicates that the political and macroeconomic stability are not enough to attract FDI to help non-hydrocarbon sectors drive economic growth.
16
Poudel, Bibas. "ESTIMATION OF AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION FUNCTION FOR NEPAL USING ARDL MODEL." Food & Agribusiness Management 5, no. 2 (2024): 113–18. https://doi.org/10.26480/fabm.02.2024.113.118.
Full textAbstract:
Estimating the consumption function is important for informing policy makers aimed at promoting sustainable economic growth, poverty alleviation, and social development. This research study estimated the aggregate consumption function for Nepal from 2000 to 2022 using the Auto regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). Real income, real exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate are the determinants for the study. The study reveals a long-term association among these variables through ARDL based co-integration test. While the elasticity coefficient of real income is significantly positive, the coefficients of other variables are negative. In the long run, there is an inverse relationship between the real depreciation of domestic currency and real consumption. The real interest rate appears to create substitution effects on consumption, while the inflation rate triggers real balance effects on Nepal’s aggregate consumption. The error correction coefficient (𝛾) was found to be -0.892.
17
Farooq, Fatima, Muhammad Faheem, and Muhammad Zahid Usman. "Does Globalization Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Pakistan? A New Evidence through NARDL Approach." Review of Education, Administration & LAW 3, no. 3 (2020): 511–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/real.v3i3.96.
Full textAbstract:
The study examines the impact of globalization and institutional quality on environmental degradation in Pakistan. The study employs symmetric and asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) at a time to check the linear and nonlinear effect of globalization on the environment over 1985 to 2017. The long-run findings of linear ARDL shows globalization affect positively to the environment and all other control variables FDI, GDP are significant with a positive sign while institutional quality and the interaction term of globalization and institutional quality is significant with a negative sign. The study also finds the marginal effect of interaction term and found that globalization has a different effect on the environment with different level of institutional quality. The linear ARDL model is not suitable to check the asymmetric behaviour of globalization on the environment. For this, the study applied a nonlinear ARDL estimation method. The findings of the nonlinear ARDL model showed the asymmetric behaviour of globalization on the environment. This study provides a new direction by proving the asymmetric relationship of globalization on environment quality that is more beneficial for policymakers and government officials.
18
Javed, Zahoor Hussain, Muhammad Shabir, Liaqat Ali Waseem, Khalid Iqbal, and Mamoona Munir. "Estimation Relationship Between Nuclear Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan Using ARDL Approach." Indian Journal of Science and Technology 12, no. 45 (2019): 01–08. http://dx.doi.org/10.17485/ijst/2019/v12i45/147141.
Full text
19
Shazia Sana, Shahnawaz Malik, Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, and Muhammad Hanif Akhtar. "Money Demand Balances and Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis." Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies 6, no. 4 (2020): 1389–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/jbsee.v6i4.1449.
Full textAbstract:
This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate on the money demand balances in Pakistan by applying linear and non-linear ARDL approach. The purpose of study is not only examining the impact of exchange rate and demand for money but also to analyze that whether demand for money in Pakistan is stable or not. For the estimation of money demand function yearly data are used from the 1972 to 2019. The findings of linear ARDL suggest that exchange rate and demand for money balances are positively related. Moreover, Non-linear ARDL exhibit that positive and negative shocks in exchange rate have mixed findings for money demand while asymmetric test shows that exchange rate has symmetric effects for money demand. Stability test suggest the stable money demand in Pakistan.
20
Nwaeze, Nnamdi Chinwendu. "Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria." IIARD International Journal of Economics and Business Management 9, no. 4 (2024): 97–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.56201/ijebm.v9.no4.2023.pg97.112.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of this research is to ascertain if inflow of FDI and external debt has significantly impacted the growth of the Nigerian economy from (1980-2017) using the ARDL-ECM framework. Data was extracted from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and WDI dataset of the World Bank. Results from the ARDL estimation output shows that foreign direct investment and external debt possessed a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria only in the short-run. On the other hand, results from the ARDL Bounds Test depicts an absence of a long-run relationship between foreign direct investment, external debt and economic growth in the case of Nigeria. The study recommended that borrowed funds acquired to finance capital and developmental projects should be properly channelled towards the actualisation and full implementation of such projects.
21
Yaqub, Ahmad El, B, Usman Gana, Ibrahim Musa, and Ismail Yahaya. "Impact of Capital Market on Nigerian Economic Growth from 1990 to 2022: New Evidence from an Ex-Post Factor Research Design." Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management 11, no. 05 (2024): 170–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.36347/sjebm.2024.v11i05.003.
Full textAbstract:
This study examined the impact of capital market on economic growth of Nigeria. The study applied an ex-post factor research design which utilized secondary data for the period 1990-2022 because during that period there were a lot of changes with regard to operations of capital market in Nigeria. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was used for the model estimation. A combination of ARDL bounds test for co-integration, ARDL short and long run error correction models were used for estimation. All the tests helped to confirm the integrity of our models. Findings of the study indicate that, the Number of listed Securities and All Share Index maintained a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria both in the short and long runs. Based on the findings, it was recommended that government should advance policies that stimulate stock market development for rapid economic growth of the country. Again, government should maintain policy consistency in the pursuit of growth in the Nigerian capital market. By so doing, counter developmental policies should not be allowed to crowd out the gains of capital market development and by extension on economic growth in the long run. Lastly the government should find ways and means of boosting the confidence of investors to retain their portfolio investments.
22
Nzeh, Innocent Chile, Uju Victoria Okoli, Joan Nwamaka Ozoh, and Florence Ngozi Ezenwob. "Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Evidence from the Economic Community of West African States." International Journal of Finance, Economics and Business 3, no. 1 (2024): 10–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.56225/ijfeb.v3i1.282.
Full textAbstract:
In literature, the role of institutions in stimulating FDI inflows has been documented. This study examined the contributions of two institutional-quality variables, regulatory quality and the rule of law, in attracting FDI in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The study used an annual series covering the period from 2000 to 2020 using three different estimation techniques: the panel ARDL, the panel FMOLS, and the panel DOLS. Findings reveal that while the rule of law had a negative and significant impact on FDI inflows under the panel ARDL and FMOLS, the impact of regulatory quality was negative and significant under the panel ARDL and DOLS. The short-run ARDL results revealed that only the population growth rate positively and significantly impacted FDI inflows. However, in the long run, findings showed that while the population growth rate had a positive and significant impact on FDI inflows under the ARDL, the impact of GDP was positive and significant in all the models. The exchange rate was also found to negatively and significantly impact FDI inflows in all the models. The study consequently recommends building strong institutions through collaboration among the member countries while improving human capital and economic growth.
23
Gurbuz, Ismail Bulent, and Irfan Kadioglu. "Grain Production in Turkey and Its Environmental Drivers Using ARDL in the Age of Climate Change." Sustainability 16, no. 1 (2023): 264. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16010264.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to evaluate the long-run and causality relationships between the annual grain production (kg per hectare) in Turkey, fertilizer used in agriculture, the number of tractors, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, and grain production area from 1988 to 2018. The study’s data for the years 1988–2018 were taken from the World Bank and Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) databases. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds (ARDL) test was applied to estimate the cointegration between the variables. The cointegration test results confirmed a long-run relationship between the variables. The short-run estimation revealed that the error correction coefficient was negative and statistically significant. The result obtained for the error correction term estimated that the deviations from the short-run equilibrium would be corrected, and the system would converge to the long-run equilibrium within 1.05 years. Further, the long-run estimation showed that all variables included in the model had a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable. While this relationship was negative for grain production amount and carbon emission, it was positive for fertilizer use and the number of tractors. The grain areas estimated as the dependent variable in the ARDL model were in a feedback relationship with the current production and number of tractors variables, while the fertilizer and carbon emission variables were in a unidirectional causality relationship towards the grain production area. There is a negative relationship between grain production (kg per hectare) and grain production areas (hectares). A 1% increase in grain production leads to a decrease of approximately 0.30% in grain production areas. Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, another variable that stands out with its negative impact in ARDL long-run estimation results, indicate that product groups produced as an alternative to grain have a higher emission-generating power. The other long-run estimation results reveal that the tractor variable positively affects grain production areas.
24
Laghari, Fahmida, Farhan Ahmed, Babar Ansari, and Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira. "Agricultural Land, Sustainable Food and Crop Productivity: An Empirical Analysis on Environmental Sustainability as a Moderator from the Economy of China." Sustainability 17, no. 5 (2025): 1980. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17051980.
Full textAbstract:
The availability of agricultural land is central to stimulating reserves in sustainable food and crop production amidst accelerating economic sustainability and growth. Therefore, this article aims to investigate the influence of agricultural land (AGL) on food production (FP) and crop production (CP) with the linkage of environmental sustainability (ES) as a moderator from 1990 to 2021 for the economy of China with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing estimation model. Our findings showed that the ARDL model estimates the long-term and short-term joint matching relationships between agricultural land and the independent variables in the model, which is a statistically significant outcome. Therefore, in the long term, the food and crop production adjustment for speed to steadiness was huge as it was projected at 1.337%, 53.6%, 133.5%, and 37.4%, respectively, in all the models, which shows that the adjustment for speed of models is a good post-shock association process. We found evidence for a significant and positive relationship between agricultural land and food and crop production in ordinary least square (OLS) estimation, which also ensured the outcomes of the primary model. Furthermore, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test estimation found reverse causality between food production (FP) and crop production (CP) and showed evidence of the conservation hypothesis. We found bidirectional causality between food production and agricultural land and between crop production and agricultural land, which shows evidence of the feedback hypothesis. Additionally, the empirical findings of a robustness check with fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) techniques showed consistency with the investigations of ARDL estimation in the long run, ensuring the validity and strength of the primary outcomes. Overall, the present paper brings fresh knowledge about agricultural land use, and food and crop production to promote environmental sustainability.
25
Jee, Sang-Youn, and Kyung-Soo Kim. "Estimation of the Relationship between Inbound Tourism Income and Macroeconomic Growth using ARDL Model." Korean Business Education Review 37, no. 3 (2022): 125–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.23839/kabe.2022.37.3.125.
Full text
26
Chaudhary, Arbind. "Estimation of Aggregate Consumption Function for Nepal: ARDL Bound Testing Approach." NRB Economic Review 29, no. 2 (2017): 51–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v29i2.52513.
Full textAbstract:
The relationship between aggregate consumption and its determinants is one of the oldest statistical regularities of macroeconomics. It is important for macroeconomists, policy makers and for others as well. This study aims to estimate aggregate consumption function for Nepal employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the period of 1975 to 2015 using real income, real exchange rate, real interest rate and inflation rate as determinants. ARDL based co-integration analysis finds the existence of long run association among the variables. Furthermore, elasticity coefficient of real income is found significantly positive but the coefficients of other variables are negative. There exists inverse relationship between real depreciation of domestic currency and real consumption in the long run, but short run shows positive relation between them. The long run as well as short run dynamics of the model are significantly stable. Hence, income is a robust determinant of aggregate consumption. Real interest rate seems to generate substitution effects on consumption, and inflation rate evokes real balance effect on the aggregate consumption of Nepal further.
27
Korankye, Benjamin, Zuezhou Wen, Michael Appiah, and Louisa Antwi. "The Nexus Between Financial Development, Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation: PMG-ARDL Estimation." ETIKONOMI 20, no. 1 (2021): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/etk.v20i1.15908.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to find out the connections between financial development, economic growth, and poverty using panel data from 1985 to 2017 in fourteen African countries that many previous researchers ignore. The study deploys a dynamic Granger causality test to trace the nexus between financial development, economic growth, and poverty reduction in Africa in the long run. First, the upshots suggest a gross domestic product, gross capital formation, price of household consumption, and government expenditure substantially impacting poverty. Besides that, the result also shows a bi-directional in the long run using a PMG estimator. The findings broadly support the view that there is a stable, short-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, and poverty in the error correction terms. However, other variables show no causal relationship in the short run. In practicality, this study suggested some policy implications and supported governmental policies to reduce economic hardship on financial institutions.JEL Classification: G10, O47, I39, C33How to Cite:Korankye, B., Wen, X., Appiah, M., & Antwi, L. (2021). The Nexus Between Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: PMG-ARDL Estimation. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 20(1), 1 – 12. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v20i1.15908.
28
Monjazeb, Mohammad Reza, and Leyla Dehgani. "Estimation of Life Insurance Capacity in Iran A Panel ARDL Approach." Journal of Research in Economic Modeling 10, no. 37 (2019): 39–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.29252/jemr.10.37.39.
Full text
29
Raj Dhungel, Kamal. "Estimation of Import Demand Function Using ARDL Method: Evidence from Nepal." International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management 6, no. 2 (2019): 45–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.12691/ijefm-6-2-3.
Full text
30
Dong, Qi, and Xiangbo Liu. "Multivariate filter estimation and ARDL model analysis of China’s potential output." Applied Economics Letters 25, no. 18 (2017): 1327–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1420873.
Full text
31
Hendrasto, Nur, Muhammad Yusuf Ibrahim, and Tanti Novianti. "The Roles of Export of Coffee Commodity and Macroeconomics Factors on Unemployment in Indonesia." Jurnal Social Economic of Agriculture 12, no. 2 (2023): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.26418/j.sea.v12i2.66113.
Full textAbstract:
Coffee as the second largest agricultural commodity export has contributed to the economies of various countries, including Indonesia. In addition to looking at the role of coffee commodity exports, an analysis of macroeconomic factors' impact on Indonesia's unemployment rate is also analyzed. Because it is known that the unemployment rate is not only caused by one sector but some things influence it, including macroeconomic factors. This study analyzes the role of coffee commodity exports and macroeconomic factors, including GDP, inflation, and interest rates, on Indonesia's unemployment rate. The data used in this study is interpolated secondary data for the period 2000 to 2021. The estimation method used in this study is Robust Least Square (ROBUSTLS) which will then be estimated again using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method as a robustness test. The estimation results using the ROBUSTLS method prove that coffee commodity exports and macroeconomic factors significantly affect Indonesia's unemployment rate in aggregate. This form of influence is negative for coffee commodity exports (ExpCof), gross domestic product (GDP), and interest rate (IR). While inflation (Inf) has a positive impact on the unemployment rate (Ump). These findings are reinforced by the estimation results using the ARDL method with the result that ExpCof, GDP, and Inf have a significant relationship to Ump, while Inf is not as significant as the findings from the estimation results using the ROBUSTLS method.
32
Mukhtarov, Shahriyar, Sugra Humbatova, Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, and Sannur Aliyev. "The Financial Development-Renewable Energy Consumption Nexus in the Case of Azerbaijan." Energies 13, no. 23 (2020): 6265. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13236265.
Full textAbstract:
This article analyzed the relationship between financial development, renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and energy prices in Azerbaijan by employing time series data for the time span of 1993–2015. The autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) technique was applied in empirical estimations, because it performs better than all the alternative techniques in small samples, which was the case here in this article. The results of estimation found that there is a positive and statistically significant influence of financial development and economic growth on renewable energy consumption, whereas the prices of energy proxied by CPI have an adverse impact on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan. Also, estimation results demonstrated that a 1% rise in financial development, proxied by domestic credit as a percentage of GDP, and economic growth increase renewable energy consumption by 0.16% and 0.60%, respectively. The different financial development impacts on renewable energy consumption and related policy implications were also introduced.
33
Tandan, Laxman, Khagashyor Khanal, and Ananta Raj Kafle. "Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus." KIC International Journal of Social Science and Management 1, no. 1 (2022): 117–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/kicijssm.v1i1.51108.
Full textAbstract:
This paper attempts to examine the Nexus between finance growth by indigenised economic growth, financial development, fixed gross capital, foreign direct investment, total trade, population and remittance for Nepal during the period from 1981-2021. Using ARDL, there exists evidence of co-integration among the variables used in the model, based on ARDL model and causality test, suggests that there is long run relationship and long run adjustment in short run. Furthermore, the result also point out that fixed gross capital and total trade on not contributed to achieve economic growth in the Nepalese context. Both the sustainability diagnostic and residual diagnosis test indicates that the estimation is free from spurious form.
34
Balushi, Issa Ahmed AL, and Nora Yusma Binti Mohamed Yusoff. "Evaluating the Impact of Energy Mix and Digital Economy on Ecological Footprint in GCC: Fresh Insight from Panel ARDL Approach." Journal of Management World 2025, no. 1 (2025): 856–66. https://doi.org/10.53935/jomw.v2024i4.821.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the impact of economic growth, digitalization, and energy mix on the ecological footprint in the GCC region from 2000 to 2021. Using advanced econometric techniques, including Panel ARDL, AMG, and CCEMG estimations, the research explores both short-run and long-run dynamics while ensuring robust and valid results. Pre-estimation tests, such as Cross-Sectional Dependence (CSD) and panel unit root tests, confirm that variables are free from unit root problems but exhibit CSD, emphasizing economic interdependencies in the region. Panel cointegration tests reveal long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables. The findings indicate that economic growth, non-renewable energy consumption, and population significantly increase the ecological footprint, highlighting their role in driving environmental degradation. Conversely, renewable energy and digitalization significantly reduce the ecological footprint, showcasing their potential to support environmental sustainability. Validation through AMG and CCEMG methods confirms the robustness of the Panel ARDL results. This study contributes to the understanding of how economic and energy transitions interact with ecological outcomes in resource-rich economies. The results underline the critical need for policies promoting renewable energy, sustainable urbanization, and the integration of digital technologies to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability in the GCC region.
35
Raifu, Isiaka Akande. "Effect of military spending on private investment in Nigeria: does a crowding-out effect exist?" European Journal of Government and Economics 11, no. 2 (2022): 167–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2022.11.2.8758.
Full textAbstract:
This study adopts ARDL and VAR estimation methods to examine whether military spending crowd-out or crowd-in private investment in Nigeria. We use the data that covers the period from 1970 to 2019. Our results, based on the ARDL method, show that military spending only crowds-out private investment in the short run. In the long run, military spending crowds in private investment. The results are robust to the use of alternative estimation methods. Specifically, IRF results show that military spending has a contemporaneous negative effect on private investment. However, the negative effect turns positive after the third period. Also, FEVD results show that most of the variation in private investment is explained by its shock and few by military spending. Our findings have policy implications. While it is advisable to spend more on the military to curtail the activities of insurgents, bandits and kidnappers and to restore confidence in investors, it is important also to take cognisance of the fact that military spending can crowd out private investment.
36
Jesreign Bolawale, Ogbonlaiye, Kwanashie Mike, and Olushola Oluwatosin. "Effect of Financial Inclusion on Economic Growth in Nigeria." International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science VIII, no. XII (2025): 3238–57. https://doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2024.8120268.
Full textAbstract:
This study investigates the effect of financial inclusion on economic growth in Nigeria from 1992 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model technique was used for the estimation of the parameters. After estimation of the long run model and error correction model using ARDL, the study found that financial inclusion has a significant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria in the short run. Also, in the long run, financial inclusion significantly affects the growth of the Nigerian economy. However, this relationship is negative. Hence, it can be concluded that, to improve the growth of the Nigerian economy in the short run, the Nigerian government must lay emphasis on improving financial inclusion across the nation state in the short run. But to ensure increasing growth levels in the long run, the government must branch into other segments of the economy as financial inclusion alone cannot sustain increasing growth levels overtime. Therefore, the study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should strengthen credit support programs for SMEs and rural borrowers through the promotion of regulatory and policy support for digital banking adoption.
37
Abu, Nurudeen, Joseph David, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, and Ben Obi. "Non-Linear Effect of Government Debt on Public Expenditure in Nigeria: Insight from Bootstrap ARDL Procedure." Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies 13, no. 1 (2022): 163–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/omee.2022.13.75.
Full textAbstract:
This study employs the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach alongside the dynamic ARDL simulations technique to investigate the non-linear effect of public debt on public expenditure in Nigeria during the 1981–2020 period. The result of the bootstrap bounds test illustrates the presence of a long-term relationship between public expenditure and public debt (along with oil rents, output growth and urbanisation). Further, the estimation results indicate that the effect of public debt on public expenditure is non-linear. In particular, public expenditure increases at early stages of rising public debt but declines at latter phases when public debt grows beyond specific threshold. This empirical outcome is further validated by the dynamic ARDL simulations approach which shows a significant decline in predicted public expenditure after short-term expansion due to counterfactual shock in public debt. Thus, policies which diversify public revenue from oil production and a reversal of the rising trend in public debt are recommended to avert the adverse welfare implications of declining public expenditure.
38
Sari, Vita Kartika Sari. "- Does electricity consumption influence economic growth in Indonesia?" Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 30, no. 1 (2023): 47–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.14203/jep.30.1.2022.47-55.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of electricity consumption, investment, and school enrollment on economic growth of Indonesia from 1984-2018. Electricity is used by society in every activity including production and consumption. This study used ARDL-ECM method. Based on the estimation results, all variables were stationary at the first difference. Based on the empirical findings, the appropriate ARDL model was ARDL (1, 2, 1, 1). In the long run, investment had a positive influence on economic growth and school enrollment had a negative influence on economic growth. Meanwhile, in the long run, electricity consumption is insignificant to the economic performance of Indonesia during the study period. However, in the short run, there was only investment had a significant and positive impact on economic growth in Indonesia. School enrollment and electricity consumption had no significant influence on economic growth. Speed of adjustment (ECT (-1)) had a significant influence on GDP. With the Qusum and QusumQ tests, the model showed feasible stability. Therefore, more vigorous electricity policies should be implemented for supporting economic growth.
39
Agus, Salim1* Cep Jandi Anwar2 Indra Suhendra3 Cindy Vebiola4 Saharuddin Didu5 Tony Santika Chendrawan6 Rah Adi Fahmi Ginajar7. "Non-Cash Payments and Inflation in Indonesia." ISRG Journal of Economics, Business & Management (ISRGJEBM) II, no. IV (2024): 1–4. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12607748.
Full textAbstract:
<em>This study aims to identify the effect of the Non-Cash Payment System as a core independent variable with the Money Supply and Gross Domestic Product as control variables on Inflation in Indonesia in the short term and long term period 2012:Q1-2023:Q4. The analytical method used in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Based on the ARDL estimation results, in the long run, Electronic Money, Money Supply, and GDP has a positive and significant effect on inflation, while Transaction Volume has a negative and significant effect on Inflation. In the short run, Electronic Money, Money Supply, and GDP has a positive and significant effect on inflation, while Transaction Volume has a negative and significant effect on Inflation in Indonesia.</em>
40
Mithiya, Debasis, Simanti Bandyopadhyay, and Kumarjit Mandal. "The Impact of Price and Non-Price Factors on Area Allocated to Oilseeds in India: An Application of ARDL Model." Applied Economics and Finance 8, no. 4 (2021): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v8i4.5238.
Full textAbstract:
The study attempts to investigate the dynamic relationship between acreage allocation of oilseeds and price (own price and prices of competitive crops) and also search for the link between area allocation and other non-price factors including productivity, irrigation, rainfall, technology and a policy-making variable (economic liberalization). The dynamic panel data for the year 1976-77 to 2017-18 have been used in the analysis. The study has used the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to understand the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables and to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between them. To estimate the model, both PMG (Pooled Mean Group) and MG (Mean group) estimation methods have been used. The Hausman test has been conducted to see the difference between the PMG and the MG results. The outcomes show that PMG serves as an efficient estimator here. The error correction terms are negative and significant. The results show strong evidence of area allocation towards oilseed crops, indicate a strong co-integration among their determinants in the long run. The ARDL results indicate that the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium varies from 14.8 to 40.6 percent.
41
Husein, Jamal, and S. Murat Kara. "Nonlinear ARDL estimation of tourism demand for Puerto Rico from the USA." Tourism Management 77 (April 2020): 103998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.103998.
Full text
42
Umaru, Shehu, Hannatu Ismail, and Farida Lawal. "NEXUS BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT, INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA." International Journal of Operational Research in Management, Social Sciences, and Education 8, no. 1 (2022): 35–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.48028/iiprds/ijormsse.v8.i1.03.
Full textAbstract:
Unemployment and inflation are twin evils that are bedeviling economies of the world and have continuously attracted the concern of economists. Most developing countries Nigeria in particular is battling with these problems. This study examines the nexus between unemployment, inflation and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. Diagnostic test was conducted to ascertain the behavior of the series. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) test results are reported. Based on the test, the variables in the model are of mixed order of integration i.e., two of the variables are I(1) and one is I(0) . The Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration test was conducted to check for possible long run relationship. It was found that there is a long-run relationship in the model. Thus, the ARDL ECM was used for the estimation. Results from the ARDL estimation reveal that the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) has the expected negative sign with a high speed of adjustment of 71% back to equilibrium; there is a long-run negative relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria over the period of study; there is a long-run negative relationship between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria over the period of study. Based on these findings, this paper recommended that the government of Nigeria should spend more money on training and skill acquisition in order to combat unemployment. More so, excessive and galloping rise on the prices of goods and services in Nigeria should be control.
43
Aghayeva, Ilaha. "THE IMPACT OF RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AZERBAIJAN: FB-ARDL AND A-ARDL COINTEGRATION APPROACHES." Green Economics 2, no. 2 (2024): 119–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.62476/ge22.119.
Full textAbstract:
The objective of this study is to examine the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth in Azerbaijan. It is believed that this study will contribute to the literature by using Fourier ADF, Fourier Bootstrap ARDL and Augmented ARDL methods for the first time in this context. The stationarity of the variables was first tested using ADF, Fractional Fourier ADF, Flexible Fractional Fourier ADF and single structural breakpoint ZA stationarity tests, which revealed different degrees of stationarity of the variables. The cointegration relationship between the variables was first examined using the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL bound test, which found no evidence of cointegration. Subsequently, the Augmented ARDL bounds test was used to examine the cointegration relationship between the variables, which revealed a long-run equilibrium relationship. FMOLS, DOLS and CCR long-run estimation methods were used to examine the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth and according to the results of all three methods, both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption contribute to the growth of the Azerbaijani economy. Holding other variables constant, a 1% increase in non-renewable energy consumption leads to a 3.28% increase in economic growth. Holding other variables constant, a 1% increase in renewable energy consumption leads to a 1.29% increase in economic growth. The study concludes with policy recommendations for the Azerbaijani economy based on the econometric results.
44
Uremadu, Sebastian O., Innocent N. Umezurike, and Kingsley O. Onyele. "Effects of Budget Deficit Financing on the Economy of Nigeria." AKSU Journal of Administration and Corporate Governance 4, no. 2 (2024): 166–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.61090/aksujacog.2024.028.
Full textAbstract:
The study investigated the effects of deficit financing on the Nigerian economy using data that covered 41 years (1981 to 2021). Real gross domestic product (RGDP) was the dependent variable, while government budget deficit financing disaggregated into different sources of budget deficit financing represented the explanatory variables. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method was used for the tests and analyses. Results established that both non-bank public sources of deficit financing and banking system sources of deficit financing had positive and significant effects on growth. However, non-bank public deficit financing positively led the Nigerian economy and was followed by banking system deficit financing. Both ways and means and external deficit financing sources were negative and insignificant in influencing the Nigerian economy. Ways and means were third while external deficit financing was fourth in descending order of influence on RGDP growth. The study further applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) approach to unit root tests and observed that the variables were integrated at both levels and first difference, leading to the application of the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) approach to data estimation. The ARDL bounds tests showed that the model specified for the study followed a long-run path and that a long-run relationship existed between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables. The estimation of the long-run and error correction estimation indicated that the independent variables had a time-varying effect on the real gross domestic product of Nigeria. That ARDL estimation of the error correction mechanism also showed that RGDP adjusted rapidly to short-run discrepancies in the long run. Finally, the error correction mechanism showed that external sources of budget deficit financing, non-banking system public deficit financing, ways and means source of deficit financing, gross capital formation, real interest rate and exchange rate, all had robust effects on growth, though with varying directions of influence. Based on the foregoing, the study has recommended deficit financing, more especially non-bank public deficit financing and banking system deficit financing as better options for attaining the much desired rapid and sustainable economic growth of Nigeria as they have been proven to be non-inflationary in practice compared to ways and means and external source of deficit financing over the years.
45
Sihem, Boudeb. "An Econometric Estimation of Impact of Economic Growth on Employment in Algeria during the Period (1994- 2018)." Milev Journal of Research and Studies 6, no. 1 (2020): 210–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.58205/mjrs.v6i1.454.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims at measuring the impact of economic growth on employment in Algeria during the period 1994- 2018. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARdl) Model, the results show that the economic growth rates are insufficient to reduce unemployment rates
46
Rahman, Mujib Ur, Amtul Hafeez, and Wisal Ahmad. "Determinants of Industrial Sector Growth in Pakistan." III IV, no. III (2019): 61–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/ger.2019(iv-iii).06.
Full textAbstract:
A strong industrial sector shows greater economic growth. To find industrial growth, this study hereby made an attempt. Time series data is used. Data is obtained from the years 1984 to 2018. The stationarity of the series is checked through Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF). Moreover, the ARDL approach is used to check short and long-run estimation of the model, estimating the determinants of the industrial sector growth in Pakistan. A long-run positive and significant associations between External debt (% of GDP), GDP (Annual Growth), FDI, Remittances (% of GDP) is identified, while trade has a negative effect on industrial growth. The factor remittances have an insignificant but positive influence on the industrial sector growth.
47
Chowdhury, Shanjida, K. B. M. Rajibul Hasan, Mahfujur Rahman, K. M. Anwarul Islam, and Nurul Mohammad Zayed. "Causal Relationship Among Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions, Renewable Energy, Population and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: An Empirical Study." Research in World Economy 11, no. 6 (2020): 196. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v11n6p196.
Full textAbstract:
Developing countries face environmental degradation crisis due to the consumption of nonrenewable energy for economic development induces ecological destruction. However, the consequences of environmental deterioration can no longer be overlooked. Using data from 1990 from 2018, this study scrutinized the long-run equilibrium along with the trend among consumption of renewable energy, carbon dioxide emissions, Population, and economic growth in Bangladesh. This study reveals the significant cointegration of renewable energy with controlled variables using the ARDL bound test. Also, ECM with ARDL unrestricted version enables us to decide the speed of adjustment is 27.647% addressed for short-run elasticity in the long run. Stability and further diagnostic tests are performed for model post estimation and validation. Also, it needs further steps from the government side to promote renewable energy that boosts economic development.
48
Kyophilavong, Phouphet, John Luke Gallup, Teerawat Charoenrat, and Kenji Nozaki. "Testing tourism-led growth hypothesis in Laos?" Tourism Review 73, no. 2 (2018): 242–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/tr-03-2017-0034.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Laos. Design/methodology/approach The authors test the tourism-led growth hypothesis using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration estimation (Pesaran et al., 2001) and Granger causality tests. Findings The results of this paper show that when tourism is forcing variable, there is no long-run relationship between tourism development and economic growth. The Granger causality test demonstrates that there is a uni-directional causality running from economic growth in tourism. Social implications The empirical results and policy recommendation may be useful for other small developing countries. Originality/value This study is the first study to investigate the relationship between tourism development and growth in Laos, using a relatively new econometric approach – ARDL bound testing.
49
Afolabi, Adeniyi, Kafilat Sotan, and Shakirat Salahuddееn. "TRADE POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA." Economic Thought journal 65, no. 5 (2020): 84–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.56497/etj2065504.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the effect of trade policy on Nigeria’s economic growth and uses annual data spanning from 1983 to 2018. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test revealed that the variables employed have a mixed order of integration (i(0), i(1)). Thereafter, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed because it suits the outcome of the pre-estimation test. A cointegration test among the variables was conducted using the ARDL bound test technique. The ARDL estimates showed that the adjusted trade ratio and the price-based variables have a positive impact on the GDP in both the short and the long run. The impulse response function for the estimated ARDL model was computed in order to confirm the accuracy of the Bound testing result. Interestingly, the findings remained robust when the potential effect of the trade policy was accounted for using the impulse response function (IRF) (see the Appendix). The IRF showed dynamically that the GDP responded positively to the trade policy at a higher horizon contrary to the short run estimate, thereby giving more credibility to the result of the ARDL which was being transformed by the IRF. The dynamic responses made it possible to find out that the GDP responded positively and negatively to trade policy, but that the accumulated (long run) effect was positive. The conclusion was reached that in Nigeria the adjusted trade ratio was procyclical while the price-based mechanism was countercyclical throughout the scope of study. The suggestion was made that the policy makers should adopt policies that can promote international trade and innovations, and can shut out any form of black market premium that may cause distortions.
50
Polcyn, Jan, Liton Chandra Voumik, Mohammad Ridwan, Samrat Ray, and Viktoriia Vovk. "Evaluating the Influences of Health Expenditure, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution on Life Expectancy in Asia." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 5 (2023): 4000. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20054000.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the effects of health expenditure, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, population size, and income on health outcomes in 46 Asian nations between 1997 and 2019. Cross-sectional dependence (CSD) and slope heterogeneity (SH) tests are utilized due to the close linkages between Asian nations as a result of commerce, tourism, religion, and international agreements. The research uses unit root and cointegration tests of the second generation after validating CSD and SH issues. Due to the results of the CSD and SH tests, it is clear that conventional methods of estimation are inappropriate, so a new panel method, the inter autoregressive distributive lag (CS-ARDL) model, is used instead. In addition to CS-ARDL, the study’s results were checked with a common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) method and an augmented mean group (AMG) method. According to the CS-ARDL study, higher rates of energy use and healthcare spending lead to better health outcomes for Asian countries over the long run. CO2 emissions are shown to be harmful to human health, according to the study. The influence of a population’s size on health outcomes is shown to be negative in the CS-ARDL and CCEMG, but favorable in the AMG. Only the AMG coefficient is significant. In most instances, the results of the AMG and CCEMG corroborate the results of the CS-ARDL. Among all the factors influencing life expectancy in Asian countries, healthcare spending is the most influential. Hence, to improve health outcomes, Asian countries need to take the required actions to boost health spending, energy consumption, and long-term economic growth. To achieve the best possible health outcomes, Asian countries should also reduce their CO2 emissions.