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Journal articles on the topic 'ARDL method'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 25 July 2025

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1

Rahmasari, Aulia, Eka Hawari Sunani, Miftahul Jannah, Fathulaili Fathulaili, Linda Kurnia, and Ahmad Satria. "ARDL Method: Forecasting Data Kemiskinan di NTB." JTAM | Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika 3, no. 1 (2019): 52. http://dx.doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v3i1.767.

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Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi data Jumlah penduduk miskin di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tahun 2019 dengan menggunakan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Jenis penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif. Data yang digunakan dari tahun 2002-2018, dengan parameter error MAD, MSE, MRSE dan MAPE. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi data diperoleh hasil prediksi tahun 2019 jumlah penduduk miskin di NTB sebesar 718.059 jiwa, dengan nilai MAD sebesar 4.040,26667, MSE sebesar 1.943.057.717, MRSE sebesar 44.080,1284 dan MAPE sebesar 3%.  Abstract: This st

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Menegaki, Angeliki N. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies." Economies 7, no. 4 (2019): 105. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies7040105.

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A vast number of the energy-growth nexus researchers, as well as other “X-variable-growth nexus” studies, such as for example the tourism-growth nexus, the environment-growth nexus or the food-growth nexus have used the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds test approach for cointegration testing. Their research papers rarely include all the ARDL procedure steps in a detailed way and thus they leave other researchers confused with the series of steps that must be followed and the best implementation paradigms so that they not allow any obscure aspects. This paper is a comprehensiv

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Azmi, Ulul, Zilullah Nazir Hadi, and Siti Soraya. "ARDL METHOD: Forecasting Data Curah Hujan Harian NTB." Jurnal Varian 3, no. 2 (2020): 73–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.30812/varian.v3i2.627.

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Penelitian ini berisi tentang prediksi atau forecasting data iklim di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tahun 2011, yakni jumlah hari terjadinya hujan dengan menggunakan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data yang digunakan yaitu data iklim di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) dari tahun 2006 -2010, dengan menggunakan beberapa parameter error seperti Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Berdasarkan hasil simulasi data iklim di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tersebut, diperoleh prediksi jumlah hari terjadinya c

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Efendi, Achmad, Yusi Tyroni Mursityo, Ninik Wahju Hidajati, Nur Andajani, Zuraidah Zuraidah, and Samingun Handoyo. "Multiple Time Series Modeling of Autoregressive Distributed Lags with Forward Variable Selection for Prediction." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS 21 (April 19, 2024): 1012–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23207.2024.21.84.

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The conventional time series methods tend to explore the modeling process and statistics tests to find the best model. On the other hand, machine learning methods are concerned with finding it based on the highest performance in the testing data. This research proposes a mixture approach in the development of the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) model to predict the Cayenne peppers price. Multiple time series data are formed into a matrix of input-output pairs with various lag numbers of 3, 5, and 7. The dataset is normalized with the Min-max and Z score transformations. The ARDL predict

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Ur Rehman, Faheem, Ejaz Ahmad, Muhammad Asif Khan, József Popp, and Judit Oláh. "Does Trade Related Sectoral Infrastructure Make Chinese Exports More Sophisticated and Diversified?" Sustainability 13, no. 10 (2021): 5408. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13105408.

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Whether better infrastructure influences Chinese export sophistication (ES) and diversification (ED) is an important question, which surprisingly remains unaddressed. The current study contributes to the ES and ED literature by capturing the symmetric and asymmetric effect of infrastructure on ES and ED. We employ a robust dynamically simulated autoregressive distributed lag (DYS-ARDL) dynamic method, which is an extended version of NARDL and ARDL. The major aim of this new DYS-ARDL dynamic approach was to abolish the issue in orthodox ARDL model approach while examining the long-run and short

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Handoyo, Samingun, Ying-Ping Chen, Tiara Mawidha Shelvi, and Heni Kusdarwati. "Modeling Vector Autoregressive and Autoregressive Distributed Lag of the Beef and Chicken Meat Prices during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia." Journal of Hunan University Natural Sciences 49, no. 3 (2022): 220–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.55463/issn.1674-2974.49.3.25.

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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has spread to all aspects of life. Modeling the price of beef and chicken meat is very important for the government to avoid extreme fluctuations of both commodities in the prices so that society's purchasing power can be maintained. This study has several objectives, namely building VAR and ARDL models from multiple time series data (beef and chicken meat prices), conducting variable selection with forwarding subset selection on input lag in the ARDL model, and measuring the performance of the VAR and ARDL models on the both of beef and chicken meat prices

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Polcyn, Jan, Liton Chandra Voumik, Mohammad Ridwan, Samrat Ray, and Viktoriia Vovk. "Evaluating the Influences of Health Expenditure, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution on Life Expectancy in Asia." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 5 (2023): 4000. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20054000.

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This study examines the effects of health expenditure, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, population size, and income on health outcomes in 46 Asian nations between 1997 and 2019. Cross-sectional dependence (CSD) and slope heterogeneity (SH) tests are utilized due to the close linkages between Asian nations as a result of commerce, tourism, religion, and international agreements. The research uses unit root and cointegration tests of the second generation after validating CSD and SH issues. Due to the results of the CSD and SH tests, it is clear that conventional methods of estimation are inap

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Anastas, KAZADI MATANDA, MATATA MAKALAMBA Patrick, LUBANZA NGOMA Germain, and KITOKO LISOMBO Etienne. "Fight against unemployment in a petty trading in the Democratic Republic of Congo." ISIR Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences (ISIRJAHSS) 2, no. 2 (2025): 01–16. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15017746.

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<em>This article focuses on : the fight against unemployment in a petty trading in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It aims to identify the main levers to sustainably reduce unemployment in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The study was part of a hypothetico-deductive paradigm. The analysis was quantitative and applied the ARDL regression method based on macroeconomic data from the DRC from 1991 to 2021.</em> <em>Estimates form the ARDL method have shown that beyond cyclical and structural changes, the petty trading is intended to be a shock absorber of unemployment in the Democratic Re

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Dalimunthe, Amir Abduljabbar, Agus Mohamad Soleh, and Farit Mochamad Afendi. "Performance Evaluation of ARDL Model Stacked with Boosted Ridge Regression on Time Series Data with Multicollinearity." Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications 9, no. 1 (2025): 136–44. https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v9i1p136-144.

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Time series data plays a vital role in financial and economic study. Two commonly applied models for such data are Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). Nonetheless, interdependence among explanatory variables often leads to multicollinearity, posing challenges for model reliability. This study investigates the effectiveness of the ARDL model integrated with boosted ridge regression as a method to mitigate multicollinearity. Due to limitations in available empirical data, simulation data will be generated to support the analysis. The research consists of two s

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Solarin, Sakiru Adebola. "The Role of Urbanisation in the Economic Development Process: Evidence from Nigeria." Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research 11, no. 3 (2017): 223–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0973801017703512.

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The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between urbanisation and economic growth, while controlling for the agricultural sector, industrial development and government expenditure in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run relationship between the variables over the period 1961–2012. In the process of estimating the long-run coefficients, the ARDL method is augmented with a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator and a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator. The direction of causa

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Farooq, Fatima, Muhammad Faheem, and Muhammad Zahid Usman. "Does Globalization Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Pakistan? A New Evidence through NARDL Approach." Review of Education, Administration & LAW 3, no. 3 (2020): 511–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/real.v3i3.96.

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The study examines the impact of globalization and institutional quality on environmental degradation in Pakistan. The study employs symmetric and asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) at a time to check the linear and nonlinear effect of globalization on the environment over 1985 to 2017. The long-run findings of linear ARDL shows globalization affect positively to the environment and all other control variables FDI, GDP are significant with a positive sign while institutional quality and the interaction term of globalization and institutional quality is significant with a ne

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Raj Dhungel, Kamal. "Estimation of Import Demand Function Using ARDL Method: Evidence from Nepal." International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management 6, no. 2 (2019): 45–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.12691/ijefm-6-2-3.

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Afsane, Rafiee. "Estimation of Iranian Natural Gas Demand Function Using ARDL Estimation Method." International Journal of Social Science and Human Research 04, no. 05 (2021): 1225–33. https://doi.org/10.47191/ijsshr/v4-i6-01.

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Based on its advantages and providing a big part of total energy in the country, natural gas lies in a prominent place among other energy sources. Making cognition and accurate identification of practical elements on the volume of periodic (short and long) demands on natural gas can help us outline suitable plans and policies related to energy. By this view, practical items on natural gas demands had been evaluated. The ARDL pattern with distributed interruptions and ECM model was employed to investigate the function of demands on natural gas during the years from 1976 to 2013. The result prov

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Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, Mary Oluwatoyin Agboola, Husam Rjoub, Ibrahim Adeshola, Ephraim Bonah Agyekum, and Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar. "Linking Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Environmental Degradation in China: What Is the Role of Hydroelectricity Consumption?" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 13 (2021): 6975. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136975.

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Achieving environmental sustainability has become a global initiative whilst addressing climate change and its effects. Thus, this research re-assessed the EKC hypothesis in China and considered the effect of hydroelectricity use and urbanization, utilizing data from 1985 to 2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method was utilized to assess long-run cointegration, which is reinforced by a structural break. The outcome of the ARDL bounds test confirmed cointegration among the series. Furthermore, the ARDL revealed that both economic growth and urbanization trigger envi

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Malini, Helma, and Edwin Suwantono. "Indonesia Stock Exchange Resilience toward Crisis; Study Case of US and China Trade War." IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development) 4, no. 2 (2021): 234–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.29138/ijebd.v4i2.1209.

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This paper investigates the resilience’s of Indonesia stock Exchange toward the US and China trade war. Emphasis is put on the influence of US and China trade war since 2016. We analyze data using five major sectoral indexes in IDX (Consumer Goods Industry Sector, Agriculture Sector, Infrastructure, Utility and Transportation Sector, Miscellaneous Industry Sector, and Mining Sector) using volatility modelling of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) & Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methods to find the correlation and co- integration between selected sector US and China trade war. We f

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Syrbek, Perizat, Laila Bimendiyeva, Saltanat Kondybayeva, Aigul Tlesova, and Adil Tolepov. "Nexus between Energy Intensity, CO2 Emissions and Food Security: Asymmetric and Symmetric View from Kazakhstan." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 15, no. 2 (2025): 616–23. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.18486.

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The aim of this study is analyzed nexus between energy intensity, CO2 emissions with food security in Kazakhstan. As dependent Food security indicator food production index and for energy intensity indicator Energy intensity level of primary energy were taken. As socio-economic indicators GDP per capita and population growth are taken. Data cover 2000-2021 years and extracted from World Bank Data and Worldometers. As research methods Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis and Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) were applied. According to NARDL method, Fossil CO2 emi

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Harahap, Choirunnisa Tri Ana, Rocky Ardiansyah Habibi Harahap, and Utari Evy Cahyani. "The Nexus Of Zakat, Infaq and Sadaqah (ZIS) And Economic Growth in Indonesia: ARDL Method." Journal of Islamic Social Finance Management 5, no. 1 (2024): 20–28. https://doi.org/10.24952/jisfim.v5i1.10498.

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Zakat, Infaq and Sadaqah is an instrument of Islamic philanthropy that has an important role in society and can encourage economic growth through income redistribution and reduction of social inequality in Indonesia. For a Muslim, it is obligatory to pay zakat, while spending money on infaq and sadaqah is sunnah. Zakat, Infaq and Sadaqah funds are expected to be channeled to the poor who need (mustahik) to improve their welfare in order to achieve economic growth of the Indonesian people. The period in this study is Zakat, Infaq and Sadaqah and Economic Growth in Indonesia 2002-2019. This rese

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Susanti, Rina, Engla Desnim Silvia, and Fatma Ariani. "Faktor Penentu Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia." Jurnal Alwatzikhoebillah : Kajian Islam, Pendidikan, Ekonomi, Humaniora 10, no. 1 (2024): 201–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.37567/alwatzikhoebillah.v10i1.2592.

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This research aims to determine: the effect of inflation on Indonesia's economic growth, the effect of HDI on Indonesia's economic growth and the effect of unemployment on economic growth in Indonesia. The data used in this research is secondary data sourced from the websites of various agencies including BPS, aseanstats.org, and kidb.adb.org, from 1993-2022. This research uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag or ARDL analysis tool model. The ARDL model is a combination of autoregressive (AR) and distributed lag (DL) methods. The AR method is a method that uses one or more past data from the

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Robert, Tangakou Soh, and Mba Fokwa Arsene. "Banking Services and Investments in Cameroon: An Approach by the ARDL Method." Asian Journal of Economic Modelling 3, no. 4 (2015): 80–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.8/2015.3.4/8.4.80.93.

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Seifi, Anahita, Samira Motaghi, Mojtaba Soltani Ahmadi, and Dmitri Pletnev. "Modeling Tourism Demand of Iran and Selected Countries (Application of ARDL Method)." Vestnik of North-Ossetian State University, no. 1(2020) (March 25, 2020): 167–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.29025/1994-7720-2020-1-167-175.

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Today, the tourism industry is one of the most influential industries in the economies of societies, especially in countries seeking a substitute for the export of single-product resources. Having a young population seeking job and great tourism attractions in the region and the world, Iran is in a good place in terms of tourist attraction. Despite the favorable conditions, its status is not favorable in comparison to similar countries. Accordingly, the present study aims to analyze the main determinants of international tourism demand of Iran by examining the current and desirable situation d

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Chaitip, Prasert, Chukiat Chaiboonsri, and Apiraphol Dewitt. "Canned Pineapple in Syrup from Thailand Export by using Panel ARDL Method." Procedia Economics and Finance 24 (2015): 101–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00624-3.

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Muammar, Zikri, Umaruddin Usman, Khairil Anwar, and Cut Putri Mellita Sari. "ANALISIS ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP, BELANJA MODAL DAN TPAK TERHADAP PENDUDUK MISKIN DI BIREUEN." Jurnal Aplikasi Ilmu Ekonomi 1, no. 1 (2022): 96. http://dx.doi.org/10.29103/jaie.v1i1.8901.

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ABSTRACTThis study examined the effect of life expectancy, capital expenditures, and labor forceparticipation rates on the poor in Bireuen during 2011-2020. This study used secondary data for 10 years. This study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method. The results indicated that in the short and long term, life expectancy has a negative but insignificant effect on the poor, and capital expenditures and the level of labor force participation have a positive but insignificant effect on the poor in Bireuen.Keywords: Life Expectancy, Capital Expenditure, Labor Force Partici

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Suharno, Suharno, and Nurul Anwar. "The Energy Demand Elasticity in Relation to Gross Domestic Product in Indonesia: Sectoral Approach." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13, no. 4 (2022): 634–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13385.

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This paper aims at estimating the energy demand elasticity in relation to gross domestic product in Indonesia based on data from 1995 to 2018. The sectors examined are industry, trading, transportation, and housing sectors. The method of analysis is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). An interesting estimation result here is that the elasticity of the industry sector is negative both short and long term. The other three sectors show positive elasticity. This paper contributes to the discussion of the energy demand ARDL model to be used as a reference in developing countries.

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Thanabalasingam, T. "The Role of Political Stability, Labor Market and Education on Migration: The Empirical Evidence from Sri Lanka." Business and Economic Research 10, no. 2 (2020): 372. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v10i2.16988.

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This study employs annual data from Sri Lanka over the period of 1990 – 2018 in order to investigate the impact of political instability and the existence of violence, unemployment rate, wage differential and level of education on migration. ADF unit root test confirmed that none of the variables are I(2), which allows us to examine the long run relationship between the variables using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound testing method. AIC is suggested to adapt ARDL (1, 0, 0, 2, 0) model among the top 20 models. ARDL Bound testing approach identified the cointegrating relationship bet

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Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, Manuel Francisco Coelho, Dilber Çağlar Onbaşıoğlu, et al. "Modeling the Dynamic Linkage between Renewable Energy Consumption, Globalization, and Environmental Degradation in South Korea: Does Technological Innovation Matter?" Energies 14, no. 14 (2021): 4265. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14144265.

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The present research assesses the influence of globalization and technological innovation on CO2 emissions in South Korea as well as taking into account the role of renewable energy consumption and energy consumption utilizing datasets between 1980 and 2018. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method is utilized to assess long-run cointegration. The outcome of the ARDL bounds test confirmed cointegration among the series. Furthermore, the ARDL reveals that economic growth, energy consumption and globalization trigger environmental degradation while technological innovation

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Abdulla Al Shiam, Sarder, Mohammad Ridwan, Md Mahdi Hasan, et al. "Analyzing the Nexus between AI Innovation and Ecological Footprint in Nordic Region: Impact of Banking Development and Stock Market Capitalization using Panel ARDL method." Journal of Environmental Science and Economics 3, no. 3 (2024): 41–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.56556/jescae.v3i3.973.

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This study investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) innovation on the ecological footprint in the Nordic region from 1990 to 2020, alongside the effects of banking development, stock market capitalization, economic growth, and urbanization. Utilizing the STIRPAT model, the study incorporates cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity tests, revealing issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The analysis employs both first and second-generation panel unit root tests, confirming that the variables are free from unit root problems. Panel cointegration tests dem

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Inim, Victor, Udo Emmanuel Samuel, and Abner Ishaku Prince. "Other Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria." European Journal of Sustainable Development 9, no. 2 (2020): 338–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2020.v9n2p338.

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Inflation is a continuous macroeconomic concern that has dominated thoughts at major economic fora due to its pervasive effect on the economy. The quantity theory of money isolates money supply as the major cause of inflation. The economic reality in Nigeria contravenes the theory. The study examines other determinants of inflation in Nigeria using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method on quarterly data from January 1999- December 2018. Findings show that poor infrastructural development, exchange rate, political instability, corruption, and double taxation significantly stimulate i

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Khan, Muhammad Kamran, Jian-Zhou Teng, and Muhammad Imran Khan. "The effect of worker remittances on economic growth: An ARDL approach." Engineering Economics 30, no. 4 (2019): 434–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.21830.

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Worker remittances are the main source of financial flow to any economy. This study intended to scrutinize the effect of remittance inflow on Pakistan’s economy over the period 1976- 2016 by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique; because this method has been recently developed and has different advantages as compared to time series methods. ARDL method was applied to scrutinize the long run and the short run effect of worker remittances on Pakistan’s economy. This study concluded that Pakistan’s economy is positively affected by remittance inflow, foreign direct investment

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Al Balushi, Issa, and Nora Yusma Binti Mohamed Yusoff. "Analyzing the Resource Curse Hypothesis in Oman: The role of Financial Development and Natural Resource through ARDL method." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 15, no. 3 (2025): 334–43. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.18551.

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This study explores the Resource Curse Hypothesis in Oman from 1990 to 2021, tackling an important question in development economics: does an abundance of natural resources impede or promote economic growth? The study also explores how financial development, trade, and urbanization influence economic performance. The analysis, using various unit root tests, confirmed that the variables are stationary, which provides a solid foundation for further modeling. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method showed a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables. The fi

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Taibek, Zhazira, Indira Kozhamkulova, Almas Kuralbayev, Bagdat K. Spanova, and Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy. "Analysis of the Effect of Oil and Energy Production on Health and Education Expenditures in Kazakhstan with Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13, no. 2 (2023): 215–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.14039.

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This study analyzes the impact of Kazakhstan's oil and energy production between 2000 and 2020 on government expenditures on health and education. Kazakhstan’s total crude oil and natural gas production, gas fuel production and distribution, domestic general government health expenditures (% of GDP), out-of-pocket health expenditures (% of total health expenditures), and government expenditures on education (% of GDP) are included. ARDL analysis showed that oil and natural gas production has an impact on government expenditures on health and education. Moreover, the boundary value proved that

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Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Jinsok Sung, and Nisit Panthamit. "Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method." Sustainability 12, no. 7 (2020): 2689. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12072689.

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One of the current debatable global problems is climate change or global warming as crucial geopolitical risks. The progress of energy transition by considering geopolitical risk has not been considered seriously yet. This paper contributes to the literature by modeling and analyzing energy transition patterns in Russia with emphasis on geopolitical risks factor as a giant fossil fuels producer using the ARDL bounds testing method over the period of 1993–2018. The main results proved long-run negative impact of economic growth, population growth and inflation rate on energy transition of Russi

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Ziya, Amin, and Salman Sotoudenia Karani. "Examining the Impact of Renewable Energy on the Economy Using the ARDL Method." International Journal of Innovation Management and Organizational Behavior 3, no. 5 (2023): 79–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.61838/kman.ijimob.3.5.10.

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Objective: With the continual increase in the global population and the limited availability of energy resources, energy consumption has become a concern for all countries. Today, renewable energies have made it possible to utilize all natural potentials for energy production. However, a comprehensive examination in this field must be conducted to meet the country's energy needs and identify all areas for exploiting renewable energies. Subsequently, the creation of infrastructure and suitable environments for the exploitation, development, and provision of energy becomes significantly importan

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Muhaimid, Humoud Saad. "Causal relationship between economic development and unemployment in Iraq: Using the ARDL method." International Journal of Foreign Trade and International Business 7, no. 1 (2025): 82–87. https://doi.org/10.33545/26633140.2025.v7.i1a.148.

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Kriskkumar, Karunanithi, Niaz Ahmad Mohd Naseem, and Wan Ngah Wan Azman-Saini. "Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: Applying Augmented ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Techniques." SAGE Open 12, no. 1 (2022): 215824402210799. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/21582440221079936.

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This paper attempts to investigate if the effect of oil price on growth is asymmetrical for Malaysia, a small-open-dynamic oil-exporting country, over a period from 1981 to 2017. The empirical method employed in this study is the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound test approach and the recent innovative nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Results suggest that neglecting nonlinearities can lead to misleading results. More precisely, the result reveals that adjustments in the price of oil influence Malaysia’s economic growth asymmetrically. An increas

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Aljandali, Abdulkader, and Christos Kallandranis. "Exchange rate modelling in the development community using the ARDL cointegration approach: The case of emerging markets." Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets and Institutions 10, no. 2 (2020): 53–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/rgcv10i2p5.

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Despite rising interest in African economies, there is little prior research on the determinants of exchange rate movements in the region. This paper examines the monthly exchange rates of the country members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from 1990 to 2010 inclusive. Long-run equilibrium exchange rate models are established, exchange rate determinants are identified, and ex-post forecasts are generated for a period of 18 months (Sekantsi, 2011). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration model is used in this paper, given its statistical advantages over comm

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Sari, Vita Kartika Sari. "- Does electricity consumption influence economic growth in Indonesia?" Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 30, no. 1 (2023): 47–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.14203/jep.30.1.2022.47-55.

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The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of electricity consumption, investment, and school enrollment on economic growth of Indonesia from 1984-2018. Electricity is used by society in every activity including production and consumption. This study used ARDL-ECM method. Based on the estimation results, all variables were stationary at the first difference. Based on the empirical findings, the appropriate ARDL model was ARDL (1, 2, 1, 1). In the long run, investment had a positive influence on economic growth and school enrollment had a negative influence on economic growth. Meanw

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Ullah, Sami, Muhammad Nadeem, Kishwar Ali, and Qaiser Abbas. "Fossil fuel, industrial growth and inward FDI impact on CO₂ emissions in Vietnam: testing the EKC hypothesis." Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal 33, no. 2 (2021): 222–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/meq-03-2021-0051.

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PurposeIn this paper, the authors investigate that the increasing level of fossil fuel combustion in the industrial sector has been considered the prime cause for the emissions of greenhouse gas. Meanwhile, the research focusing on the impact of fossil fuel consumption on the emission of CO2 is limited for the developing countries containing Vietnam. This study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach with structural breaks presence, and the Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration method to observe the rationality of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the dynamic

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Soh, Tuan Muhammad Amir Amirul Tuan, Muhamad Rias K. V. Zainuddin, Abdul Hayy Haziq Mohamad, Arifin Arifin, and Abdul Hafizh Mohd Azam. "The Role of Financial Development in Poverty and Income Distribution Dynamics in ASEAN Countries: A Panel Cointegration Analysis." International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 15, no. 2 (2025): 336–43. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.16871.

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The objective of this study is to examine the impact of financial development on income equality and poverty reduction in selected Southeast Asian countries. This study utilizes the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) method. In addition, the researcher also used the statistical descriptive method, the unit root test method to measure the stationarity of variables, and the cointegration panel method to measure the cointegration between the dependent variable and the independent variable. The results of the study obtained from the panel analysis found that financial development ca

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Ghilous, Azeddine, and Adel Ziat. "Balance of Payments as a Monetary Phenomenon: An ARDL Bounds Test Method for Algeria." Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 23, no. 1 (2023): 64–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/foli-2023-0004.

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Abstract Research background Every country attempts to improve its balance of payments (BOP) position to enhance macroeconomic policy. Algeria, like many developing countries, is experiencing a BOP deficit. This raises concerns about the reasons for this deficit and prioritizes the quest for potential answers. Purpose In the context of the Monetary Approach to the balance of payments (MABP), this paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credit, inflation, interest rate, GDP, and net foreign assets to find whether BOP is a monetary phenomenon in Algeria from 1980 to 2019. R

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Ghosh, Sudeshna. "Environmental Pollution, Income Inequality, and Household Energy Consumption: Evidence from the United Kingdom." Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 10, no. 02 (2019): 1950008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s179399331950008x.

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This study explored the impact of income inequality, household energy consumption, government expenditure, and investment on carbon dioxide emissions at the household level over the period 1970–2015 in the United Kingdom. The study applied Clemente–Montanes–Reyes unit root test to identify structural break in the time series. Further, the cointegrating relationship of the time series observations was explored by applying the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) (linear) bounds test approach along with the nonlinear ARDL for making fruitful comparisons in the long-run relationship among

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Mohammed, N. AL-Chaabawi, J. Samimi Ahmad, and M. Tehranchian Amir. "Economic growth related to Iraqi government Size." World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews 17, no. 2 (2023): 313–25. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8107223.

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<strong>Background</strong>: The aim of the current research was to studying the impacts of the government size on an economic growth of Iraq. In spite of the high rate of the government spending, there are no good impact on economic growth. <strong>Methods</strong>:  Data was collected from Central Bank of Iraq, including, the dependent variables, which were Gross domestic product and annual growth. We have used the ARDL method to analyses the data using canonical correlation analysis. The study included the effect relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable

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Okuduwor A. A, Amadi Robert C.C, and Udi O.F. "Assessing Agricultural Export Evidence on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1999-2020)." International Journal of Business and Applied Economics 2, no. 2 (2023): 79–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.55927/ijbae.v2i2.2312.

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This study examined the impact of agriculture export on economic growth in Nigeria from 1999 to 2020. Specifically, the study investigated the impact of agriculture exports (as percentage of merchandize export), exchange rate and trade openness on economic growth (measured using gross domestic product growth rate). Annual data used for the study were sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The study used econometric techniques of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), bound test and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) for empirical analy

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Nopeline, Nancy, Sirojuzilam Sirojuzilam, and Ahmad Albar Tanjung. "J-Curve For Indonesia’s Trade Balance with Non-Linier ARDL." Financial Engineering 2 (October 18, 2024): 270–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/232032.2024.2.26.

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The performance of Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP), especially for the trade balance/current account, which recorded a surplus and adequate foreign exchange reserves, controlled political conditions, and attractive yields, can impact the exchange rate. This improvement in the exchange rate further encouraged the entry of foreign investors, which caused the Indonesian economy to continue to grow when the world experienced a financial crisis. This study analyzes asymmetric models to prove the Marshall Lerner Condition of Indonesia with trading partners. Using NARDL methods, this study uses

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Mishra, Bibhuti Ranjan, and Asit Mohanty. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India." Global Economy Journal 17, no. 4 (2017): 20170049. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/gej-2017-0049.

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This paper examines the behaviour of Indian aggregate imports during the period 1980–81 to 2013–14. The stability of aggregate import demand function is examined using five types of cointegration tests including the ARDL bounds test. In order to estimate the long-run elasticities, we have applied three alternative fully efficient cointegrating regressions, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen maximum likelihood method. Our results reveal cointegration relationship between import demand, relative prices of import, domestic activity and foreign exchange reserves. Results evin

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Fahira, Rauzatul, and Devi Andriyani. "PENGARUH BELANJA PEMERINTAH, UPAH MINIMUM PROVINSI (UMP) DAN PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA TERHADAP PENDAPATAN PERKAPITA PROVINSI ACEH." Jurnal Aplikasi Ilmu Ekonomi 1, no. 1 (2022): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.29103/jaie.v1i1.8891.

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This study examined the effect of government expenditures on education, provincial minimum wages, and employment on the per capita income of Aceh province during 2001-2020. This study used secondary data for 20 years. This study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the data. The results indicated that in the short term, government expenditure on education and the provincial minimum wage positively but insignificantly influenced per capita income, and labor absorption negatively but insignificantly influenced per capita income. In the long term, government e

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Agus, Salim1* Cep Jandi Anwar2 Indra Suhendra3 Cindy Vebiola4 Saharuddin Didu5 Tony Santika Chendrawan6 Rah Adi Fahmi Ginajar7. "Non-Cash Payments and Inflation in Indonesia." ISRG Journal of Economics, Business & Management (ISRGJEBM) II, no. IV (2024): 1–4. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12607748.

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<em>This study aims to identify the effect of the Non-Cash Payment System as a core independent variable with the Money Supply and Gross Domestic Product as control variables on Inflation in Indonesia in the short term and long term period 2012:Q1-2023:Q4. The analytical method used in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Based on the ARDL estimation results, in the long run, Electronic Money, Money Supply, and GDP has a positive and significant effect on inflation, while Transaction Volume has a negative and significant effect on Inflation. In the short run, Electronic Money,

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Raifu, Isiaka Akande. "Effect of military spending on private investment in Nigeria: does a crowding-out effect exist?" European Journal of Government and Economics 11, no. 2 (2022): 167–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2022.11.2.8758.

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This study adopts ARDL and VAR estimation methods to examine whether military spending crowd-out or crowd-in private investment in Nigeria. We use the data that covers the period from 1970 to 2019. Our results, based on the ARDL method, show that military spending only crowds-out private investment in the short run. In the long run, military spending crowds in private investment. The results are robust to the use of alternative estimation methods. Specifically, IRF results show that military spending has a contemporaneous negative effect on private investment. However, the negative effect turn

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Raihan, Asif, Mohammad Ridwan, Tipon Tanchangya, Junaid Rahman, and Shakil Ahmad. "Environmental Effects of China's Nuclear Energy within the Framework of Environmental Kuznets Curve and Pollution Haven Hypothesis." Journal of Environmental and Energy Economics 2, no. 1 (2023): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.56946/jeee.v2i1.346.

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This study investigates the environmental sway of China's nuclear energy use in the perspective of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) by using the time series data from 1993 to 2022. The study used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulating method. One of the limitations of the study is the short range of the data although the ARDL method perfectly applicable for the dataset with a short range. The findings of empirical research support that the PHH does not apply to China, meaning that foreign direct investment significantly impacts environment

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Ngoc, Xuan Vu. "Determinants of open innovation in United State of America: New evidence from ARDL method." Innovation and Green Development 4, no. 2 (2025): 100228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.igd.2025.100228.

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Işik, Sefa, and Fatih Cemil ÖZBUĞDAY. "The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices in Turkey: A case study." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 67, No. 3 (2021): 101–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/260/2020-agricecon.

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Food price inflation has been a significant subject of debate in Turkey since food prices soared in 2018. The study examines the linkage between agricultural input prices and food prices in Turkey by using quantitative method approaches with the monthly data spanning from 2015-M01 to 2020-M01. A co-integration analysis is performed using the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach and Maki co-integration test with structural breaks. Additionally, the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (

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