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Munir, Farzana, Muhammad Athar Ishaq, Shees Khalid, and Hina Ali. "Depreciation of Pak Rupee and Its Effects on Tax Collection by FBR." Review of Economics and Development Studies 7, no. 1 (2021): 63–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/reads.v7i1.322.
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This research paper is an attempt to analyze the effect of rupee depreciation on total tax col-lection and on types of tax collection. This study employed ARDL methodology on empirical data of Pakistan for the period of 1990 to 2018 and found that depreciation of Pak rupee negatively affects overall tax collection both in short term and long term. Its effect is particularly detrimental in case of income tax and custom duty. In case of income tax it deteriorates tax collection by reducing real income of persons and businesses and in case of customs it reduces tax collection by making imports costly. It is also found that depreciation of currency negatively effects tax collection from agriculture, industry, services and imports whereas it positively effects tax collection from consumption, CPI, remittances and interest rates.
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Busu, Mihail. "Analyzing the Impact of the Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth at the EU Level Using an ARDL Model." Mathematics 8, no. 8 (2020): 1367. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math8081367.
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Energy is one of the most important drivers of economic growth, but as the population is increasing, in normal circumstances, in all countries of the world, there is a demand for energy produced from conventional resources. Increasing prices of conventional energy and the negative impact on the environment are two of the main reasons for switching to renewable energy sources (RESs). The aim of the paper is to quantify the impact of the RESs, by type, on the sustainable economic growth at the European Union (EU) level. The research was performed for all 28 EU member states, for a time frame from 2004 to 2017, through a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and causality analysis. Furthermore, Hausman test was performed on the regression model. By estimating the panel data regression model with random effects, we reveal through our results that RESs, namely wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower energy, have a positive influence on economic growth at EU level. Moreover, biomass has the highest impact on economic growth among all RES. In fact, a 1% increase in biomass primary production would impact the economic growth by 0.15%. Based on econometric analysis, our findings suggest that public policies at the EU level should be focused on investment in RESs.
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Koomson-Abekah, Isaac, and Eugene Chinweokwu Nwaba. "Africa-China investment and growth link." Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies 11, no. 2 (2018): 132–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-11-2017-0034.
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PurposeThis paper aims to investigate China–Africa Investment link, using over two decades of FDI’s data. During the specified periods, African economic growth path has been predominantly upward trending, despite multiple external threats. This impressive growth was partly because of the growth of FDI stock across the region. This study explores the various sources of FDI to Africa, mainly China’s FDI’s and how they influence African macroeconomic indicators, i.e. unemployment, export and import activities.Design/methodology/approachPesaran autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) is used as a framework to test the short-run and long-run relationship of indicators. Granger causality test checked the causality between growth and macroeconomic indicators.FindingsThe link between China’s FDI and African economic growth reported a negative/declining effect in both short and long run. In the long run, the effect of world FDI on growth was significant but not the in the short run. However, US FDI to Africa, China Export and Import from Africa reported an insignificant effect on growth. There was no evidence of Okun’s law, as a decrease in Africa unemployment does not increase growth. Overall, China’s FDI’s inflows to Africa are allocated to capital-intensive activities which has less labor employability. The Granger causality test reported a uni-directional link between growth and all series, except for human capital which experienced no link at all in all directions. Despite the issue of socio-infrastructure militating against growth in the region, African economy is likely to perform better, if more FDI’s are channeled into labor-intensive activities, because it has a reductive effect on unemployment.Research limitations/implicationsThe research considered point annual FDI data but not accumulated stock and is a macro-based study, i.e. regional economy.Practical implicationsThis paper bridged the literature gap in African investment performance by providing an empirical justification in understanding the inflow of FDI, especially China. This is a useful guard in policy design and implementations in the attraction of the right type of investment, so as to reduce unemployment and promote growth.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this study has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal.
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SHENAI, Vijay, Artem SHCHERBYNA, Sergei VORONIN, and Dmitriy OLKHOVSKYY. "THE DETERMINANTS OF FDI IN SIX FORMER FSU COUNTRIES: A STUDY OF DATA 1995–2017." Vol 19, No 1 (2020), Vol 19, No 1 (2020) (March 2020): 140–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/jee2020.01.140.
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can bring in much needed capital, particularly in emerging markets, help improve manufacturing and trade sectors, bring in more efficient technologies, increase local production and exports, create jobs and develop local skills, bring about improvements in soft and hard infrastructure and overall be a contributor to sustainable economic growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With all these desirable features, it becomes relevant to ascertain the factors which attract FDI to an economy or a group of adjacent economies. This paper explores the determinants of FDI in six Former Soviet Union (FSU): Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Russia, Moldova and Kazakhstan. After an extensive literature review of theories and empirical research and using a set of cross-sectional data over the period 1995–2017, an ARDL model is estimated with FDI/GDP as the dependent variable. Inflation, exchange rate changes, openness, economy size (GDP), Income levels (GNI per capita), Infrastructure (measured by the number of fixed line and mobile subscription per 100 persons) are tested as independent variables for explanatory power in long run and short run relationships. Over the period, higher inflows of FDI in relation to GDP appear to be have been attracted to the markets with better infrastructure, smaller markets and higher income levels, with lower openness, depreciation in the exchange rate and higher income levels though the coefficients of the last three variables are not significant. The results show the type of FDI attracted to investments in this region and are evaluated from theoretical and practical view points. Policy recommendations are made to enhance FDI inflows and further economic development in this region. Such a study of this region has not been made in the past. JEL: C21, F21, F23.
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Oliver, Rhonda, and Ellen Grote. "The provision and uptake of different types of recasts in child and adult ESL learners." Sociocognitive Approaches to Second Language Pedagogy 33, no. 3 (2010): 26.1–26.22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/aral.33.3.01oli.
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The role of conversational interaction in second language research has increasingly been seen as playing a facilitative role in second language learning. As such there have been a number of studies focussing on different types of interaction, including feedback such as recasts, and their potential role in second language learning. In this study, using Sheen’s (2006) taxonomy, we compare various types of recasts delivered to child ESL learners. Further, we examine two variables: context (teacher-fronted classrooms versus pair work, including NNS-NNS and NNS-NS dyads) and age (the results of this study with children are compared with the results from Sheen’s (2006) study of adults) and the impact these factors have on this form of feedback. We also examine the opportunity for, and the actual uptake that may follow these recasts, for child ESL learners. The findings suggest that age and context make a difference, both in relation to the provision of recasts (in terms of their type and characteristics), as well as in relation to their uptake, though to a lesser extent. Context also influences the opportunity for uptake afforded to child learners. The theoretical and pedagogical implications of these results are outlined at the conclusion of this paper.
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Bazarbayeva, Galiya Appazovna, and Gulnara Sainovna Jumabekova. "Zoomorphic image from Ashutasty: artistic culture of the Saryarka ancient population." Samara Journal of Science 6, no. 3 (2017): 232–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/snv201763225.
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The paper introduces into the scientific use a zoomorphic image revealed during the excavation of the kurgan no. 10 of the burial ground Ashutasty-1. The monument was researched by the expedition of the Institute of Archaeology named after A.Kh. Margulan which was under the guidance of the group of authors in 2015. The materials received due to the analysis of funeral ceremony features, as well as a type of the bronze tip date back to VII-VI centuries BC. Geographically the studied complex is located within the west wing of the vast historical and cultural region Saryarka stretching from Shyngystau in the east to Ulytau in the west. Delineated area coincides with the geographical location of the Tasmola cultural monuments, revealed and introduced by a well-known Kazakh archaeologist M.K. Kadyrbayev. The analyzed image of feline predator Ashutasty-1 have close analogies among the materials obtained during the excavation of the Saka time burials such as Akbeit, Baike-2, Karashoky, Taldy-2. The research works were conducted under the direction of A.Z. Beisenov. Pictorial monuments are known among the antiquities of the synchronous range monuments: Jetysu (Jalauly), Southern Aral area (Tagisken, Uigarak), Kazakh Altay (Tarasu), Southern Ural (Kichigino) and Tuva (Arjan-2, Kosh-Pey, Kuilug-Hem-1).
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Alqaralleh, Huthaifa. "On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 14, no. 4 (2020): 839–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-10-2019-0011.
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Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.
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Aljandali, Abdulkader, and Christos Kallandranis. "Exchange rate modelling in the development community using the ARDL cointegration approach: The case of emerging markets." Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets and Institutions 10, no. 2 (2020): 53–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/rgcv10i2p5.
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Despite rising interest in African economies, there is little prior research on the determinants of exchange rate movements in the region. This paper examines the monthly exchange rates of the country members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from 1990 to 2010 inclusive. Long-run equilibrium exchange rate models are established, exchange rate determinants are identified, and ex-post forecasts are generated for a period of 18 months (Sekantsi, 2011). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration model is used in this paper, given its statistical advantages over commonly, applied cointegration techniques. Findings show that the ARDL method generates accurate forecasts for eight out of 11 sampled exchange rates. In keeping with earlier literature (e.g., Redda & Muzindusti, 2017; Zerihun & Breitenbach, 2017; etc.), findings suggest that the chances of SADC member countries fulfilling the requirements of a currency union are quite low. This paper marks one of the first attempts in the literature to forecast exchange rates in SADC using the ARDL approach (Pesaran & Shin, 1995). The results would be of interest to policy-makers, researchers and investors.
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He, Pinglin, Lu Chen, Xiaonan Zou, Shufeng Li, Huayu Shen, and Jianhui Jian. "Energy Taxes, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Consequences: A Comparative Study of Nordic and G7 Countries." Sustainability 11, no. 21 (2019): 6100. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11216100.
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Based on a panel ARDL (AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) model, this paper investigates the environmental and economic consequences of energy tax levied in the four Nordic countries and the G7 countries from 1994 to 2016. Based on the double dividend theory of environmental tax, this paper investigates five variables: energy tax, energy consumption per unit of GDP, income tax, profit tax and capital gains tax, carbon dioxide intensity and fossil fuel burning ratio. A panel ARDL model is established to empirically test the relationship between energy tax and other variables. Experiments show that both the four Nordic countries and the G7 countries have found the existence of green dividends in the long run: the green dividends of the four Nordic countries are reflected in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, while those of the G7 countries are reflected in the reduction of fossil fuel use. In terms of blue dividends, the implementation of energy tax in the four Nordic countries can not only reduce distorted taxes in the short term, but also promote economic growth and adjust tax structure in the long term. For the G7 countries, blue dividends are not reflected in the long term. The model used in this paper is a panel ARDL model, which is more suitable for the study of multiple countries, multiple variables and long-term cycles. This model has been seldomly used in previous studies. The application of the panel ARDL model in this paper is not only more scientific and applicable, but also more innovative, which makes up for the shortcomings of previous studies. The research object of this paper selects the energy tax, which is an important part of the environmental tax system, and strives to provide a reference for the implementation of environmental taxation priorities and effects through empirical research. This paper may also serve as a reference for other countries to establish and improve environmental tax. As the first environmental tax law in China, the Environmental Protection Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China was formally implemented on 1 January 2018. This paper chooses G7 countries and Nordic countries as the research objects. As these are important economies in the world, their environmental tax implementation is more perfected and has strong representativeness. This study can provide some experience for the continuous improvement of China’s environmental tax law.
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Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Hadise Fariditavana. "Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 3 (2015): 519–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-03-2015-0042.
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Purpose – Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach. Findings – When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve. Research limitations/implications – The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research. Originality/value – This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.
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Odhiambo, Nicholas M., and Lydia Ntenga. "Research publications and economic growth in South Africa: an empirical investigation." International Journal of Social Economics 43, no. 7 (2016): 662–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-05-2014-0103.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between research publications and economic growth – using time-series data from South Africa. The paper attempts to answer two critical questions: is there a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa? Do research publications from South African researchers Granger-cause economic growth? Design/methodology/approach – Unlike some of the previous studies, the current paper uses a trivariate ECM-based Granger-causality model to examine this linkage. Specifically, the study incorporates education as an intermittent variable between research and economic growth. In addition, the paper uses the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing procedure, which has numerous advantages, especially when the sample size is small. Findings – The results of this study show that there is a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa. The results also show that there is a distinct causal flow from research publications to economic growth in South Africa. This applies both in the short-run and in the long-run. Other results also show that: there is a short-run bidirectional causality between research publications and education; and there is a short-run bi-directional causality between education and economic growth, but a long-run unidirectional causal flow from education to economic growth. Practical implications – The findings of this paper underscore the crucial role that research plays in economic growth and development. Overall, the findings of this study show that research in South Africa is pro-growth. This implies that the recent significant increase in government expenditure on research and innovation, which is aimed at increasing the country’s scientific research outputs, is likely to pay off. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind to examine in detail the dynamic causal relationship between research outputs and economic growth in South Africa – using the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach within a trivariate setting.
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Sehrawat, Madhu, and A. K. Giri. "Financial development and income inequality in India: an application of ARDL approach." International Journal of Social Economics 42, no. 1 (2015): 64–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-09-2013-0208.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality in India using annual data from 1982-2012. Design/methodology/approach – Stationarity properties of the series are checked by using ADF, DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng- Perron unit root tests. The paper applied the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration to examine the existence of long run relationship; and error correction mechanism for the short run dynamics. Findings – The co-integration test confirms a long run relationship between financial development and income inequality for India. The ARDL test results suggest that financial development, economic growth, inflation aggravates the income inequality in both long run and short run. However, trade openness reduces the gap between rich and poor in India. Research limitations/implications – The present recommend for appropriate economic and financial reforms focussing on financial inclusion to reduce income inequality in India. Originality/value – Till date, there is hardly any study that makes a clear comparison between market-based indicator and bank based indicator of financial development in India and those examining the relationship between finance and income inequality nexus. Further there is hardly any study to include gini coefficient as a proxy for inequality for India and apply ARDL techniques of co-integration, using the basic principles of GJ hypothesis and provide short run and long run dynamics for India. So the contribution of the paper is to fill these research gaps.
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Wilczańska-Barska, Agata, Mirosława Krauze-Baranowska, Magdalena Majdan, and Daniel Głód. "RESEARCH PAPER Wild type root cultures of Scutellaria barbata." BioTechnologia 4 (2011): 369–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5114/bta.2011.46554.
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Menegaki, Angeliki N. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies." Economies 7, no. 4 (2019): 105. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies7040105.
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A vast number of the energy-growth nexus researchers, as well as other “X-variable-growth nexus” studies, such as for example the tourism-growth nexus, the environment-growth nexus or the food-growth nexus have used the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds test approach for cointegration testing. Their research papers rarely include all the ARDL procedure steps in a detailed way and thus they leave other researchers confused with the series of steps that must be followed and the best implementation paradigms so that they not allow any obscure aspects. This paper is a comprehensive review that suggests the steps that need to be taken before the ARDL procedure takes place as well as the steps that should be taken afterward with respect to causality investigation and robust analysis.
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Waziri, Bukar Zanna, Aminu Hassan, and Reza Kouhy. "The effect of transitioning to renewable energy consumption on the Nigerian oil and gas exports." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 12, no. 4 (2018): 507–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-11-2017-0010.
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Purpose Net energy importing countries (NEICs) pursue strategic policies to reduce the consumption of energy from conventional sources and increase that of renewable energy to attain energy security and sustainable development. However, net energy exporting countries (NEECs) rely substantially on the proceeds realised from oil and gas exports to mainly NEICs to finance government activities. This paper aims to investigate the effect of increased consumption of renewable energy in developed NEICs on the Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. Design/methodology/approach The study was undertaken by analysing macro-economic annual time-series data set (1980-2014) using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Findings Both the short-run and the long-run results of the ARDL modelling reveal that renewable energy consumption in developed NEICs is affecting Nigeria’s oil and gas exports negatively, thereby causing significant decrease in the amounts of revenue being generated therefrom. Research limitations/implications Like most empirical studies, the conduct of this research has encountered some challenges. Thus, the use of rather small sample in terms of period covered (1980-2014), annual frequency of data and focus on one NEEC (Nigeria) are the key limitations of this paper. While the first two challenges were dealt with by using ARDL, future research can focus on other NEECs to extend the study. Practical implications The findings have several policy implications, including the need for Nigeria to focus on developing internal market trajectories to increase domestic utilisation of its conventional energy rather than depending on external markets. The results also suggest the need for public policymakers to develop a strategic plan that will effectively address the external economic threat arising from the influence of global energy transition. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper represents the first effort to empirically examine the effect of renewable energy consumption by developed NEICs on the Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. The paper contributes to the literature by providing insight into and documenting evidence that the world is taking transitioning to cleaner energy sources very seriously.
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Mahdi, Abubakar El-Sidig A. A. "Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016)." GATR Journal of Business and Economics Review 4, no. 2 (2019): 97–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4).
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Objective – The preceding three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) saw a drop in the price of oil which has impacted all parts of Omani macroeconomic life. This study aims to identify the association between oil price changes and aggregate household consumption expenditure in the Sultanate by analyzing the long term relationship between the variables of interest. Methodology/Technique – The (ARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test of co-integration is used with 27 annual observations obtained between 1990 and 2016. Findings – The statistical results show that there is a long term, positive relationship between the two variables. Novelty – As Oman is heavily dependent on oil, any fluctuation in the price of oil will undoubtedly cause instability in the economy (macroeconomic variables) demonstrating the presence of a robust correlation between consumption and oil prices. The bound test of the ARDL approach demonstrates this relationship. This study is therefore useful for Muscat officials to identify ways to reduce the dependency on oil. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Total Household Consumption Expenditure; Crude Oil Price; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Omani Economy. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi. 2019. Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016), J. Bus. Econ. Review 4 (2): 97 – 104. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4) JEL Classification: D1, D13, D19, E30.
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Husein, Jamal G. "Foreign aid, workers’ remittances and economic growth in Jordan." International Journal of Social Economics 46, no. 4 (2019): 532–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-06-2018-0293.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run impact of foreign aid and workers’ remittances on Jordanian economic growth using time series data for the period 1970–2014. Following the most recent literature, the author also assess whether economic policy enhances economic growth and whether aid effectiveness is conditional on levels of economic policy. Design/methodology/approach The author employs unit root tests that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks (Perron, 1997) and properly utilize the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or bounds testing approach to cointegration by applying both the F- and the t-test statistics (Pesaran et al., 2001). The analysis is applied to 12 different models that incorporates the various types and sources of foreign aid. Findings Empirical results suggest that aid and its various components, and workers’ remittances have had a positive and significant long-run impact on economic growth. Empirical results also show: no evidence supporting the hypothesis that aid is only or more effective in spurring economic growth during periods of “good” macroeconomic policy, i.e., when Jordan has undertaken World Bank Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs); no robust evidence supporting the World Bank’s claim that SAPs are growth enhancing. Moreover, the author found strong empirical evidence suggesting that exports and human capital are also major determinants of long-run growth in Jordan. Research limitations/implications Although Jordan and the region at large have experienced periods of major political instability that may have had a varying impact on the economy, lack of a reliable and lengthy time series measure that accounts for political instability is not available to include in the study. Practical implications Using cointegration analysis, our empirical evidence reveals that foreign aid, labor remittances, exports and human capital have had a robust positive long-run impact on economic growth. Hence, the Jordanian government should promote policies that encourage donor countries and agencies to further extend aid to Jordan. Moreover, policies that promote exports and facilitate labor mobility to neighboring countries should also be encouraged and promoted. Originality/value Despite receiving a significant amount of foreign aid and labor remittances in the last 50 years, the author found no time series study that tested the long-run impact of these external financing sources on growth in Jordan. This study fills that gap and extends the analysis to test whether macroeconomic policy is growth enhancing and whether aid (and several of its components) are only effective or more effective in promoting growth during periods of “good” macroeconomic policy, i.e., when Jordan has undertaken a World Bank SAP.
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Ajmair, Muhammad, Muhammad Akram Gilal, and Abdul Rahman Nizamani. "Sectoral Growth of Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach." Progressive Research Journal of Arts & Humanities (PRJAH) 2, no. 2 (2020): 115–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.51872/prjah.vol2.iss2.42.
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In this research paper, we followed the general to specific approach for finding out the factors that determine sectoral growth in Pakistan. The objective was to see which of these factors have relevancy in explaining sectoral growth. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing in coordination with the general to specific approach was applied for conducting the analysis. Results showed that foreign direct investment, inflation and remittances received that have relevancy in determining the services sector growth. The variables which have significant effect on agricultural sector growth are remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation. External debt and domestic credit to private sector significantly determined industrial sector growth. Based on empirical results, it is recommended that relevant authorities should augment the factors that cause sectoral growth and control those factors that retard it.
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Zafar, Shehper Maryam, and Nadia Bukhari. "Financial Development and Stock Traded Contributions towards Economic Growth." Journal of Management Info 2, no. 1 (2015): 5–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.31580/jmi.v5i1.34.
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This purpose of this research is check the long run as well as short run impact of Financial Development and Stock traded on the economic growth in the scenario of Pakistan. The time series data has taken for the year 1988-2013. This paper utilized ARDL methodology to determine long-term impact of Financial Development and Stock Traded on Economic growth. Further Granger Causality Check has used to check a uni-directional relationship. The results of this test support that FD and stock traded has a uni-directional impact over economic growth. Further, it has depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FD and Economic Growth as well as Stock Traded and Economic Growth.
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Abd. Majid, M. Shabri, and Salina H. Kassim. "Assessing the contribution of Islamic finance to economic growth." Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research 6, no. 2 (2015): 292–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jiabr-07-2012-0050.
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Purpose – This purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the contribution of the Islamic banking and financial institutions (IBFIs) to economic growth in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – Focusing on the post-1997 economic turmoil, the paper relies on several time series tests, such as autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), vector error correction model (VECM) and variance decompositions (VDCs). Findings – The paper documents significant role played by the IBFIs in Malaysian economy. In particular, significant unidirectional causality was found from the IBFIs development to economic growth, supporting the finance-growth led hypothesis or the supply-leading view. Research limitations/implications – The paper only focuses its analysis on the role of the IBFIs in the Malaysian economy and not the financial sector as a whole. Thus, the findings of this paper are indicative, but inconclusive for the entire financial sector in the country. Practical implications – Continuous efforts should be undertaken to promote the development of the Islamic banking industry due to its significant contribution to Malaysia’s economic growth by further improving the Islamic financial infrastructure, increasing the pool of human capital in the Islamic banking industry, providing conducive legal environment to the IBFIs and maintaining the Islamic financial sector stability. Originality/value – This paper is the first attempt to empirically assess the contribution of Islamic banking institutions in Malaysia using ARDL, VECM and VDCs.
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Nguyen, My-Linh Thi, and Toan Ngoc Bui. "The Real Estate Market and Financial Stability." International Journal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences 5, no. 6 (2020): 1270–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.33889/ijmems.2020.5.6.094.
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This paper investigates the relationship between the real estate market (REM) and financial stability in Vietnam. Financial stability is measured using stock market volatility. The research is performed in Vietnam, a developing country whose stock and real estate markets are considered to be nascent, so the data series is very short. To solve this problem, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, which generates more valid results than its counterparts, is adopted. Furthermore, the ARDL approach is appropriate for a model with non-stationary data series and especially allows the analysis of the impact between data series in the short run and the long run. The results reveal the positive relationship between the real estate market and stock market volatility. However, this correlation only exists in the short run, which is a difference between Vietnam and developed countries. The paper also obtains an unprecedented finding confirming that the global financial crisis exerted a negative impact on the REM in Vietnam in the short run and the long run.
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Khan, Muhammad Asif, Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary, and Khalid Latif. "How Consumer Confidence, Corruption and Credit Rating Effect the Exchange Rate: Emerging Market Perspective." Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies 6, no. 2 (2020): 367–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/jafee.v6i2.1109.
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The paper empirically examines whether the international rating influences the rate of exchange of an economy in the long run? The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing methodology on the exchange rate of China and contemporary international rating, using time series data from 1996Q1 to 2016Q4. The empirical analysis confirms the presence of a cointegration relationship between country rating and the exchange rate. To be more specific; corruption index, credit rating, and inflation are significantly and negatively cointegrated with the exchange rate of China. Conversely, consumer confidence is uncorrelated with the exchange rate over the long run. The paper focuses only on the exchange rate of CNY-USD; this may limit the generalizability of results for exchange rate with other nations. Nevertheless, the results add to the exchange rate determinants literature by including country-rating indicators in the analysis. Prior literature documents that there is some relationship between inflation and exchange rate. This research is novel in the application of robust ARDL and bounds testing to examine the long and short-run association of country rating of China with its exchange rate, after controlling for inflation.
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Chandio, Abbas Ali, Yuansheng Jiang, and Abdul Rehman. "Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production." Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies 26, no. 1 (2019): 139–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jabes-10-2018-0084.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.
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Buhaerah, Pihri. "Pengaruh KPR terhadap Keterjangkauan Harga Properti Residensial." Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan 3, no. 3 (2019): 182–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.31685/kek.v3i3.527.
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AbstractThis paper describes and examines the linkage of house mortgages on residential property price growth in Indonesia by using qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative research approach is used to elaborate descriptively the role of house mortgages on residential property prices. To strengthen it, this study then employs one of time series regression analyses namely autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period of 2002Q1-2017Q4. To achieve the objective of this study, data was collected from secondary sources such as Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The qualitative approach shows that under lack of land banking and public housing zones, the expansion of house mortgages affect positively residential property prices both for private and public housing. The argument has been confirmed from regression analysis by using the ARDL model. The estimation results using the ARDL model show that there is a positive and significant relationship between house mortgage on residential property price growth both in the long-run and in the short-run. Keywords: house mortgage, property residential prices, land, ARDL modelJEL Classification: C22, E51, G21 AbstrakStudi ini membahas secara deskriptif dan empiris peran pembiayaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode penelitian kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Pendekatan kualitatif digunakan untuk menggambarkan secara deskriptif peran pembiyaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial. Selanjutnya, untuk memperkuat argument tersebut, studi ini kemudian melibatkan salah satu teknik analisis regresi data runtun waktu yaitu model autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) untuk periode 2002Q1-2017Q4. Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian, data dikumpulkan dari beragam sumber data sekunder seperti Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasilnya, dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif menunjukkan bahwa tanpa pelembagaan bank tanah dan zonasi khusus perumahan rakyat, skema pembiayaan kepemilikan rumah hanya akan melambungkan harga properti residensial. Argumen ini juga terkonfirmasi dari analisis regresi dengan menggunakan model ARDL. Hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan model ARDL menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara kredit kepemilikan rumah dengan harga property residensial baik untuk jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Kata Kunci: Kredit pemilikan rumah, harga properti residensial, tanah, model ARDLJEL Classification: C22, E51, G21
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Sehrawat, Madhu, and A. K. Giri. "Financial development and poverty reduction in India: an empirical investigation." International Journal of Social Economics 43, no. 2 (2016): 106–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-01-2014-0019.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in India using annual data from 1970 to 2012. The paper attempts to answer the critical question: does financial sector development lead to poverty reduction? Design/methodology/approach – Stationarity properties of the series are checked by using Ng-Perron unit root test. The paper uses the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration to examine the existence of long-run relationship; error-correction mechanism for the short-run dynamics and Granger non-causality test to test the direction of causality. Findings – The co-integration test confirms a long-run relationship between financial development and poverty reduction for India. The ARDL test results suggest that financial development and economic growth reduces poverty in both long run and short run. The causality test confirms that there is a positive and unidirectional causality running from financial development to poverty reduction. Research limitations/implications – This study implies that poverty in India can be reduced by financial inclusion and financial accessibility to the poor. For a fast growing economy with respect to financial sector development this may have far-reaching implication toward inclusive growth. Originality/value – This paper is the first of its kind to empirically examine the causal relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in India using modern econometric techniques.
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Adu, Omobola, Oghogho Edosomwan, Abiola Ayopo Babajide, and Felicia Olokoyo. "Industrial development and unemployment in Nigeria: an ARDL bounds testing approach." International Journal of Social Economics 46, no. 1 (2019): 83–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-10-2017-0448.
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Purpose The industrial sector has been identified as one of the means to address the issue of unemployment due to its role in ensuring sustainable development. However, evidence from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin reveals that the sector lags behind the agricultural and services sector in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product. In light of this, the purpose of this paper is to ascertain whether the industrial sector development is a veritable tool in addressing the issue of unemployment in the long run for the Nigerian economy. Design/methodology/approach In order to determine whether industrial development is a veritable tool in addressing the issue of unemployment in the long run, the study makes use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The choice of this method over the commonly used Johansen co-integration approach is that it provides the mechanism to estimate the model in the presence of different order of integration among the macroeconomic variables; it allows us to combine and I(0) and I(1) series, while there is strict assumption of I(1) for all variables under the Johansen approach. Findings The major finding of the paper is that an inverse and elastic relationship exists between industrial output and unemployment. This suggests that the unemployment rate is very sensitive to changes in the industrial sector in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications The major limitation is the availability of recent data to capture recent happenings in the Nigerian economy. Originality/value The paper considers the entire sector encompassed in the industrial sector as opposed to focusing on just the manufacturing sector.
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Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Sujata Saha. "On the relation between stock prices and exchange rates: a review article." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 4 (2015): 707–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-03-2015-0043.
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Purpose – While changes in stock prices are said to affect exchange rates, exchange rate changes are also said to affect stock prices. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, the authors review all empirical literature by dividing them into two groups of univariate and multivariate studies. Second, a table which summarizes the main features of each study is provided to help future researchers to have easy access to summary of each study. Finally, a new direction for future research is proposed. This new direction relies upon non-linear ARDL approach and shows how to investigate symmetric vs asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on stock prices. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews existing published work and provides suggestions for future research. Findings – The paper reviews existing published work and provides suggestions for future research. An application reveals that exchange rate changes have asymmetric effect on stock prices. Originality/value – This is the first review paper on the relation between exchange rates and stock prices.
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Olamade, Olumuyiwa. "A Long Run ARDL Investigation of Manufacturing Adjustment to the Services Economy in Nigeria." Asian Development Policy Review 9, no. 3 (2021): 95–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.107.2021.93.95.107.
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The long-run equilibrating relationship between the value-added growth of services and manufacturing is investigated in this research. The study is based on the well-established empirical link between manufacturing and service activities, and in particular, manufacturing's servicification. The selected variables' annualized time series were obtained from the World Development Indicators. The paper used the autoregressive distributed lag framework to regress manufacturing value-added growth against service value-added growth while accounting for economic growth, factor input growth, and trade effects. The findings revealed that in Nigeria, a strong performing services sector has a large negative impact on manufacturing performance, whereas capital accumulation and income growth have positive effects. The supply constraint of business services that the manufacturing sector requires is at the root of this finding. The paper advocates for policy frameworks that support the efficient supply of business services as both a manufacturing input and a productivity enhancer for the entire economy.
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Phoong, Seuk Yen, and Seuk Wai Phoong. "An ARDL Approach on Crude Oil Price and Macroeconomic Variables." GATR Journal of Business and Economics Review 4, no. 1 (2019): 68–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(8).
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Objective - The removal of fuel subsidies by the Malaysian government in 2014 has been implement with the managed float system for fuel prices. Methodology/Technique - This study investigates the impact of the managed floating system of crude oil prices on the Malaysian economy using ARDL approach by looking at macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment rates. Findings - The results show that all of the variables have short lived relationship with oil prices whereby inflation and economic growth are positively related to oil prices. However, unemployment rate has a negative relationship with the changes of WTI crude oil prices. Novelty - The major input in the economy of Malaysia contributes to a positive relationship between inflation and oil prices, whilst the contribution of Malaysia being an oil-producing country results in the positive relationship of economic growth and oil price. Likewise, as oil prices are high, the increase in demand results in increase in job opportunities. Lastly, the correlation test shows that inflation and economic growth have a high positive correlation while unemployment rate has a low negative correlation with oil price. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: ARDL; Crude Oil Price; GDP; Inflation; Unemployment. JEL Classification: E10, E30, E39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(8)
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Kurtović, Safet. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Evidence from Serbia." Economics and Business Letters 8, no. 1 (2019): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.17811/ebl.8.1.2019.7-16.
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In this paper we estimated the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into aggregate import prices in Serbia. ERPT was determined by application of single equation, cointegration approach (ARDL model), error correction term (ECM) and VAR Granger Causality tests. We based our research on data from 2008Q1 to 2014Q4. The results of our research show partial pass-through in the short run; in the long run pass-through was not observed. In addition to that, we found that appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) led to significant pass-through asymmetry in the short run.
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O. Okon, Emmanuel. "Empirical Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Co2 Emissions in Nigeria: The Role of Industrialization and Urbanization." Sumerianz Journal of Economics and Finance, no. 312 (December 22, 2020): 265–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.47752/sjef.312.265.272.
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The proposed inverted U-type relationship between environmental degradation and per capita income under EKC hypothesis has been examined in this paper for Nigeria over the period 1970-2019. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and ECM (OLS Approach), the EKC hypothesis does not seem to hold both in short-run and long-run. The estimated coefficients of the long-run relationship shows that LOGCO2(-1) is the only statistically significant variable explaining environmental degradation while the short run results indicate that D(LOGCO2(-1)) is the most significant variable in explaining environmental degradation in Nigeria followed by D(LOGIND(-1)).
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Suryandaru, Reinardus. "Measuring tourism-led growth hypothesis in Indonesia." International Journal of Culture, Tourism and Hospitality Research 14, no. 2 (2020): 295–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijcthr-03-2019-0055.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the long-run relationship and causality between economic activity and inbound tourism in the context of the Indonesian economy with a new quantitative methodology. Design/methodology/approach This research applies a new modified bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) by Kripfganz and Schneider (2018) with the period of observation from 1974 to 2017. Findings The results suggest that there is a unidirectional causality from economic activity to inbound tourism. Research limitations/implications This research applies the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and only uses bivariate variables to examine the existence of the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Further studies for the Indonesian case may apply a nonlinear ARDL model. Also, the addition of other socio-economic variables, especially those related to domestic tourism activity, can be applied to improve the model. Practical implications This work will provide an alternative quantitative methodology for scholars in studying the relationship between tourism and economic variables. Social implications The findings in this research can complement touristic-public policy decision, and the methodology may be important for knowledge transfer. Originality/value This is the first quantitative study to measure tourism-led growth hypothesis in Indonesia by using the latest modified bounds testing approach.
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Akber, Nusrat, and Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh. "Market arrival of apples under risk in Jammu & Kashmir, India: evidence from an ARDL application." Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 10, no. 2 (2020): 177–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jadee-03-2019-0033.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the market response of apple growers to price and price risk along with weather factors and weather risk in the state of Jammu & Kashmir. In other words, it tries to find the both short-run and long-run price elasticities of apples' market arrival and also the elasticity with respect to price-risk and weather-risk variables.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the bound test approach of “auto-regressive distributed lag” (ARDL) model. Monthly data on market arrival of apples and respective prices along with other nonprice factors are used.FindingsThe bound test approach of ARDL confirms the existence of long-run relationship between the market arrival of apples and price and nonprice factors. The market response to price is found to be inelastic both in shortrun and longrun. The risk coefficients are negative indicating that apple growers are risk averse. However, they do respond strongly to weather risk than price risk.Research limitations/implicationsWeather insurance must be provided to the apple growers to safeguard their production loss due to weather risks. Proper infrastructure in the form of storage facilities, marketing information, transport and communication to local markets should be provided to them. Unavailability of data at the district level poses a great difficulty to have a panel data analysis. But future research can be initiated to bridge this gap.Originality/valueThis paper considers the market response of apple growers under both price risk and weather risk which is first in its nature. The authors have not found any other paper discussing this in the case of apple in India.
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Ditta, Allah, Hafiz Asim, and Hafeez Ur Rehman. "An Econometric Analysis of Exigent Determinants of Trade Balance in Finland: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach." Review of Applied Management and Social Sciences 3, no. 3 (2020): 347–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/ramss.v3i3.69.
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A number of research papers analyzed the factors that may have impacts on the balance of trade for the effective macroeconomic policies but the results of these studies have created ambiguity which implies that further research is needed as the worsening trade balance can limit the economic growth of any country. Hence the current paper is an effort to study the short-run and long-run relationships among trade balance, real effective exchange rate, GDP per capita, urbanization, unemployment and inflation rate for the Finnish economy. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing methodology to co-integration along with error correction mechanism is applied by using time series data from 1990 to 2019 for checking the existence of long-run equilibrium between explained variable and its various determinants. Empirical findings of ARDL show that the long-run relationship among the factors of the estimated model holds. The results indicate that real effective exchange rate, urbanization and inflation are having a significant but negative impact on Finland’s trade balance for both the short-run and long-run while the impacts of GDP per capita and unemployment are significant and positive on the Finish balance of trade. In addition to above, the structural stability of mean and variance of the error term for the estimated ARDL model is verified with the help of CUSUM and CUSUM square graphs. Therefore, a reliable policy measure to improve the balance of trade by encouraging the domestic production and curtailing the imports is suggested in Finland.
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Bilas, Vlatka, Mile Bosnjak, and Ivan Novak. "Examining the Relationship between Financial Development and International Trade in Croatia." South East European Journal of Economics and Business 12, no. 1 (2017): 80–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jeb-2017-0009.
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AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia over the period from the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2015. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run and short-run relationships among the series. The research hypothesis is accepted and the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia is established and confirmed. The research results reveal unidirectional Granger causality from financial development to international trade at the 10% significance level, and negative long-run and the positive short-run relationships between financial developments and international trade in Croatia.
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Chang, Zhi Guo, Ji Xian Dong, and Jiang Miao Yi. "Research Advance on the Drying Section of Paper Machine." Advanced Materials Research 591-593 (November 2012): 520–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.591-593.520.
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The drying section of paper machine is not only the major energy-consuming parts of the papermaking process, but also one of the main bottleneck restricting the speed, yield and paper quality. So the research on the drying section has attracted much attention at home and abroad. In view of the traditional steam dryer shortcomings, this paper first introduces two kinds of improvement measures —— the tubulator bar and the siphon which can improve the efficiency of the traditional steam dryer. With the development of the paper industry, domestic and international research on the new type of paper drying technology has achieved some success. Then, we analyse their working principle and characteristic, and conclude that multi-channel dryer has a broad research and application prospects.
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Dautova, Yana, Yanmin Zhang, Andrew A. Grace, and Christopher L. H. Huang. "Experimental Physiology -Research Paper: Atrial arrhythmogenic properties in wild-type andScn5a+/− murine hearts." Experimental Physiology 95, no. 10 (2010): 994–1007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1113/expphysiol.2010.053868.
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Sehrawat, Madhu, and A. K. Giri. "Financial development and economic growth: empirical evidence from India." Studies in Economics and Finance 32, no. 3 (2015): 340–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sef-10-2013-0152.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in India using annual data from 1982 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach – The stationarity properties are checked by ADF, DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng–Perron unit root tests. The long- and short-run dynamics are examined by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration. Findings – The co-integration test confirms a long-run relationship in financial development and economic growth for India. The analysis of ARDL test results reveals that both bank-based and market-based indicators of financial development have a positive impact on economic growth in India. Hence, the results support the supply-leading hypothesis and highlight the importance of financial development in economic growth. The findings also indicate that the Indian bank-centric financial sector has the potential for economic growth through credit transmission. Research limitations/implications – The present study recommends appropriate reforms in financial markets to attain sustainable economic growth. The findings are useful for policy-makers who want to maintain a parallel expansion of financial development and growth. Originality/value – To date, there are hardly any studies that use both market-based and bank-based indicators as proxies of financial development and analyze their role in economic growth in India. So, the contribution of the paper is to fill this gap in literature.
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Aftab, Muhammad, Karim Bux Shah Syed, and Naveed Akhter Katper. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows." Journal of Economic Studies 44, no. 1 (2017): 99–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-05-2015-0091.
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Purpose After the fall of fix exchange rate regime in early 1970s, the nexus between the exchange rate volatility and trade flows has been of a great interest to the policy makers and researchers. Resultantly an extensive literature is available on the topic. However, the research findings are inconclusiveness so far. The purpose of this paper is to examine the exchange-rate volatility and bilateral industry trade link between the two important countries of Southeast Asia, i.e. Malaysia and Thailand. Design/methodology/approach This study employs Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) to measure exchange rate volatility and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to study the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. ARDL approach is suitable to accommodate the mix cases (i.e. stationary and first difference stationary). The paper considers 62 Malaysian exporting and 60 Malaysian importing industries with Thailand over the monthly period 2000-2013. Findings Findings suggest the influence of exchange-rate volatility on the trade flows in a limited number of industries. Large industries like instruments and apparatus experience negative influence from exchange-rate volatility. Originality/value Past literature continued to be inconclusiveness on the nexus between exchange-rate volatility and trade flows due to its over-reliance on the aggregated data. Besides, the past studies are more based on quarterly or yearly frequency data. These issues contribute to the aggregation bias. This research focusses on a country bilateral trade pair, using industry level disaggregated monthly data. Such research is rare in Malaysian-Thai bilateral trade context. This study uses a suitable estimation approach and also draws valuable implications.
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Emamian, Aref, and Nur Syazwani Mazlan. "Monetary-Fiscal policies and stock market performance: Evidence from linear ARDL framework." GATR Journal of Business and Economics Review (GATR-JBER) VOL. 5 (4) JAN-MAR. 2021 5, no. 4 (2021): 69–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/jber.2021.5.4(7).
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Objective – To explore the impacts of monetary and fiscal policies, the appropriateness of both policies and how the stock market is affected by their adoption and implementation in the United States (US). Hence, this study aims to determine the short and long run relationships between monetary and fiscal policies and stock market performance as well as establish potential factors and policies contributing to the highs and lows. Methodology/Technique – We use autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to achieve the objective. In this study, annual time series data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, was used. Findings – The results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real gross domestic product (RGDP) and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of the consumer price index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Novelty – As the US stock market heavily depends on the Tax Revenue in the short run, any changes in TR can impact on the US stock market considerably. Thus, shareholders can benefit from these results when they look at macroeconomic data in order to enhance their investment strategy. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: E52; E62; G18 Keywords: ARDL; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; The Stock Market in The United States. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Emamian, A; Mazlan, N.S. 2021. Monetary-Fiscal policies and stock market performance: Evidence from linear ARDL framework, Journal of Business and Economics Review, 5(4), 69–80. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2021.5.4(7)
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Moya, Helen. "Identities on paper." Narrative Inquiry 19, no. 1 (2009): 135–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/ni.19.1.08moy.
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This paper examines how life story books were used in two care settings in the UK for people with complex support needs. The context of the research was the transition of six people from a long stay hospital to a community home. Discourse analysis was used to analyse talk and texts in the care settings including staff interviews, meetings and the written text in the life story books themselves. Three uses of the books are highlighted in the analysis. They were used as a resource for: getting to know the person; defining the person; and displaying personality and uniqueness. Mutual identities of the various participants were constantly changing with reference to the life story books. It is suggested that the books encourage acceptance in the care relationships. The analysis demonstrated that despite the different uses of the life story books, highlighted by the care staff, there is an underlying assumption that what is written in the books is a direct representation of the person. It appears that once this type of information is committed to paper the identity of the person becomes reified.
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Qu, Wei Wei. "Research on Random Algorithm of English Test Paper Composition." Advanced Materials Research 1049-1050 (October 2014): 1502–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1049-1050.1502.
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English, as one of the most important information carriers, has become the most widely used language worldwide, and its importance is increasingly prominent in each field of our society. Examinations are an important means of evaluating the level of English language learning and teaching outcomes. For the problems existed in traditional English exam, this paper research English online examination system intelligent test paper based on random algorithm. First, the design test paper constraints, including the question amount constraint, questions type constraints, knowledge point constraints, difficulty constraints, answer time constraints and so on; Then, using the linear congruence generator study of a random number generation, list recursive formula and describe parameters; Finally, using flow diagram to study random test paper process, for each step describing in detail. Advantages of random algorithm are easy to use, the disadvantage is not retrospective, applies to the number of exam papers and extraction requirements are relatively few cases.
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Awad, Atif, and Ishak Yussof. "Factors Affecting Fertility – New Evidence from Malaysia." Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series 36, no. 36 (2017): 7–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bog-2017-0011.
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Abstract This research paper investigates long and short term determinants of fertility rates in Malaysia based on basic macroeconomic variables for the period 1980-2014 using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study reveals that over a long term period, all the selected variables (GDP, infant mortality rate, females’ education and employment) have had significant and negative impact on total fertility rates. Whilst during the short term period, only the infant mortality rate has had a positive impact. Since population growth is partly determined by fertility rates, efforts to increase population in Malaysia should consider factors that affect those rates.
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Taqwa, Khoirul Zadid, and Raditya Sukmana. "ANALISIS KINERJA SISTEM KEUANGAN SYARIAH TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA." Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan 5, no. 5 (2019): 395. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/vol5iss20185pp395-407.
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This research is aimed to examinethe contribution of Islamic finance performacesystem especially intermediation function to economic growth in Indonesia during 2003:Q1- 2015:Q4.Objects of this research areIslamic bank and Jakarta Islamic stock index (JII) as representing Indonesia Islamic financial system. This research only focuses on financing of Islamic financial Instutions to foster Indonesia economic growth.Focusing on the post-1997 and 2008 economic turmoil, the paper relies on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine the research. This research shows that Indonesia Islamic finance performance system can foster Indonesia economic growth during 2003-2015. Besides Indonesia Islamic finance performance system has significant role to promote economic growth in long term because it can eradicate financial specualtion.Hence IndonesiaIslamic finance performance system in the future should be supported by goverment to expand Islamic finance market share
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Đidelija, Irma. "Analysis of factors affecting the savings of private profit companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina expressed in relative amount of GDP by applying the ARDL methodology." Ekonomski vjesnik 34, no. 1 (2021): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.51680/ev.34.1.1.
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Purpose: This paper is aimed at analyzing one component of private savings and its factors, namely the savings of private profit companies. Methodology: An analysis was conducted of the savings of the private profit companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which, viewed as the sum of savings and time deposits, recorded a cumulative growth of 78.72% until the outbreak of the global financial crisis. In order to examine what factors favored such positive developments the ARDL methodology was applied. Results: The variables that statistically significantly affect the savings of private profit companies in BiH are GDP growth rate, deposit interest rate, money supply in % of GDP and current account balance in % of GDP (marginally significant at 6% significance level). Conclusion: The methodology applied confirmed the hypothesis of the paper, which proposes that the savings of private profit companies in BiH are significantly influenced by variables of the financial type.
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Attari, Muhammad Irfan Javaid, Matloub Hussain, and Attiya Y. Javid. "Carbon emissions and industrial growth: an ARDL analysis for Pakistan." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 10, no. 4 (2016): 642–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-04-2014-0002.
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Purpose This paper is a direct extension of the work by Hussain et al. (2012). They have investigated a long-term relationship between climatic change and economic growth in case of Pakistan. Agricultural sector plays an important role in economic field, whereas industrial sector is the main source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. Therefore, this study aims to replace economic growth variable with industrial growth in case of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach Investigation is made on the basis of the environmental Kuznets curve by using the time series data during the period 1971-2009. The per capital carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is used as an environmental indicator and per capita industrial income as the economic indicator. Different econometric tools including augmented Dickey–Fuller, autoregressive distributed lag and Granger-causality test are used to verify this relationship. Findings The empirical findings will help the policy-makers of Pakistan in developing new standards and monitoring networks for reducing CO2 emission. It is essential to extend the current research work at provincial and different sectors levels in order to have clear understanding about the impact of current emission rate. Originality/value This study replaces economic growth variable with industrial growth in case of Pakistan because the industrial sector is the main source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. This study is to investigate a long-term relationship between climatic change and industrial growth in case of Pakistan.
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Ampo, Takahiro, and Takahide Oya. "Development of Paper Actuators Based on Carbon-Nanotube-Composite Paper." Molecules 26, no. 5 (2021): 1463. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/molecules26051463.
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We propose a unique soft actuator—a paper actuator—based on carbon-nanotube-composite paper (CNT-composite paper), which is a composite of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and paper. CNT-composite paper has highly efficient properties because of the contained CNTs, such as high electrical conductivity and semiconducting properties. We are considering using CNT-composite paper for various devices. In this study, we successfully developed a paper actuator. We determined the structure of the paper actuator by referencing that of bucky-gel actuators. The actuator operates using the force generated by the movement of ions. In addition to making the paper actuator, we also attempted to improve its performance, using pressure as an index and an electronic scale to measure the pressure. We investigated the optimal dispersant for use in paper actuators, expecting the residual dispersant on the CNT-composite paper to affect the performance differently depending on the type of dispersant. Referring to research on bucky-gel actuators, we also found that the addition of carbon powder to the electrode layers is effective in improving the pressure for paper actuators. We believe that the paper actuator could be used in various situations due to its ease of processing.
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Joshi, Bal Krishna, Tek Bahadur Gurung, Jiban Shrestha, and Hari Krishna Upreti. "Writing a Research Paper for Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council." Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council 4 (May 6, 2018): 90–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jnarc.v4i1.19695.
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Agricultural research findings are required to reach soon to the farmers, extensionists, media, researchers, policy makers, businessperson, students, teachers and so many other stakeholders. Among different types of publications, research paper is generally published in journal considered as standard type of publication in term of quality and recognition. Most of the journals follow similar pattern and framework; however, the style, format and process may be different with each other. A research (scientific) paper is a written describing original research result using standard methods and materials. The major sections in a journal paper are abstract, introduction, materials and methods, results, discussion, conclusion, and references. Accordingly Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council has its own style and format. Author needs to follow guidelines strictly on the use of punctuation marks such as comma (,), period (.), space, justification etc; otherwise submitted manuscripts could be immediately return to author without considering in review process. In general, we received manuscripts with many errors on citation and references, poor elaboration of results of experiments, weak discussion, missing to acknowledge funding agencies, submitting non-editable figures, very few numbers of citations of Nepalese researchers, statements not in logical order, etc. In general, the scientific papers should be written in simple way with new but sufficient justification backed up by data in the form of tables, graphs, flow diagrams etc so that readers can understand easily with high readability. The submitted manuscript in the journal office are sent to two to three reviewers for specific recommendation on the originality of the work, appropriateness of the approach and experimental design, adequacy of experimental techniques, soundness of conclusions and interpretations, relevance of discussion and importance of the research. The language clarity and organization of the article are also asked with the reviewers. In response to reviewer's comments all authors are expected to reply each and every comments and suggestions of reviewers, if such comments and suggestion are not acceptable, the author/s can argue for their points, if genuine. Here in this paper we described detail contents of each section along with style and format for a research paper writing targeted to Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council.
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Ibrahim, Ayuba K., and Shazida Mohd Khan. "Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach." Economics and Business 33, no. 1 (2019): 50–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eb-2019-0004.
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Abstract The study examines the long-run relationship between domestic debt and the fiscal policy of economic growth in Nigeria in the period from 1981 to 2013 owing to government reforms in the financial system, particularly due to the establishment of the Debt Management Office (DMO) in 2000 and a new fully funded pension fund scheme, both of which resulted in a resurgence of the debt market. The issue that is often raised is the doubt regarding the stability of the debt and its likely implications for the economy, as well as the unpleasant consequences for the government embarking on consolidation. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the bounds test as proposed by Narayan (2005), anchored on the perspective of the endogenous growth theory. The results reveal that although overall the adverse negative domestic debt hurts the economy, it has a positive effect on the total aggregate government revenue and economic growth in Nigeria in the research period. Furthermore, the paper develops a system to assess the speed of the adjustment mechanism coefficient in an error correction model (ECM).
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Hu, Zhi Jun, and Xue Jin Zhang. "Research on Coating Dispersion of Liquid Wear-Resistant Decorative Paper." Advanced Materials Research 413 (December 2011): 241–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.413.241.
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Liquid wear-resistant technology combines original decorative paper and the surface wear-resistant paper into one. Wear-resistant particles are coated directly on the surface of base decorative paper, forming a transparent wear-resistant protective layer. The suspension behavior of ultra-fine A12O3 in the aqueous phase was investigated. The aim was further realizing the good consistency among A12O3, melamine resin and other components. The main influencing factors [viz., dispersant type, dispersant dosage, dispersive methods and pH value] were investigated to get the optimum conditions. The results showed that the stable aqueous suspension of ultrafine A12O3 could be obtained under the following conditions: the concentration of superfine A12O3 5wt%, pH = 9, anionic dispersant APAAA, the amount of dispersant 0.4wt%, ultrasonic suspension time 30min.