Academic literature on the topic 'Asto Indians'

Kolkata, formerly known as Calcutta in English, is the capital of the Indian state of West Bengal and is located in eastern India on the east bank of the River Hooghly. The city was a colonial city developed by the British East India Company and then by the British Empire. Kolkata was the capital of the British Indian empire until 1911 when the capital was relocated to Delhi. Kolkata grew rapidly in the 19th century to become the second city of the British Empire. This was accompanied by the development of a culture that fused European philosophies with Indian tradition. The city has been known by many names "Cultural Capital of India", "The City of Processions", "The City of Palaces", and the "City of Joy". Problems related to rapid urbanisation started to plaque Kolkata from the 1930s and the city remains an example of the urbanization challenges of the developing nations. The exercise included Archival research, Field surveys, Condition Mapping, structural evaluation and preparation of restoration & conservation solutions along with post conservation management plan. The Major challenges encountered were identifying the correct consolidation techniques using modern technology and incorporation of modern services. The Documentation and Mapping was used as a significant tool to guide towards the structural consolidation, conservation and Management strategy of the complex.

Coronavirus becomes cerebral pain every day throughout the world. Many cases of coronavirus continue to grow, directly irritating human daily exercises and devastating the economy of nations. The Indian Government announced a one day Janta curfew on March 22, 2020. After three days on March 25 2020, 19 days of lockdown were declared in the country for mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four lockdowns and six unlock periods were implemented to control the pandemic, but lockdown is the major obstacle to the economy. In unlocking period government open the economic activity stepwise to boost the economy. Coronavirus infection is under control during a lockdown time, but the infection becomes pandemic unlock 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 period. In Unlock 4.0 and unlock 5.0 coronavirus cases growth goes down but in unlock period 6.0, a sudden spike in confirmed cases. It is due to the festival session and relaxation provided by the Government in the unlock 6.0. The research aimed to forecast the trend towards the COVID-19 pandemic in India with data from June 01, 2020, by applying the ARIMA and Prophet model. Based on several presumptions, the findings of the analysis have shown that, after the unlock-up period is completed, it has been predicted that India's pandemic is expected to decrease by approximately about December 2020 and that it will crest around within the initial weeks of March 2021.

This existing study aims to investigate the relationship between Indian Bankingstock market prices and macroeconomic variables. The proxy for the Indian Banking stockmarket is Nifty Bank while Foreign Reserve, Exchange Rate (Indian vs US Dollar), Interestrate, and CPI are proxies of macroeconomic variables. Johansen Cointegration and VectorError Correction Model (VECM) on monthly data from January 2013 to July 2020 have beenapplied. Considering the results of cointegration, it is found that there is a long-run asso-ciation between the Indian Banking stock market and constituent macroeconomic variables.Next, the employment of VECM is done for inspecting long run and short-run causality.The result reveals long-run equilibrium in Indian commercial bankís stock prices comingfrom macroeconomic variables. This study has considerable imputations that investors candiversify their portfolio according to the ináuencing power of constituent selected macro-economic variables in the short run and the long run. Exchange rate and foreign reservesdrive the banking stock market in the short run whereas CPI and Interest rate do not createany signiÖcant impact.

Abstract Understanding the variability and change of monsoon onset is of utmost importance for agriculture planning and water management. In the last three decades, the Asian summer monsoon onset (ASMO) has remarkably advanced, but the physical mechanisms underlying the change remain elusive. Since the overall ASMO occurs in May, this paper focuses on the change of mean fields in May and considers enhanced mean precipitation and monsoon westerly winds as signs of advanced ASMO. The results reveal that the advanced ASMO mainly represents a robust decadal shift in the mid-to-late 1990s, which is attributed to the mean state change in the Pacific basin characterized by a grand La Niña–like pattern. The La Niña–like mean state change controls the ASMO through the westward propagation of Rossby waves and its interaction with the asymmetric background mean states in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, which intensifies the Northern Hemispheric perturbations and westerly winds. Intriguingly, the abrupt decadal shifts of monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal occur in 1999, in contrast to the South China Sea with a decadal shift in 1994. Numerical experiments with a coupled climate model demonstrate that the advanced monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is governed by the enhanced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial Pacific, while that in the South China Sea is primarily determined by the abrupt SST warming near the Philippine Sea.

Las ratas espinosas del Atlántico (Trinomys setosus, Echimyidae) son roedores caviomorfos neotropicales pertenecientes a un grupo ecológicamente diverso, muy desconocido desde el punto de vista comportamental. El aseo se considera frecuente en Rodentia, siendo estimado que tanto los roedores silvestres como los de laboratorio emplean de 15 a 50 % de su tiempo de vigilia con esta tarea. De esta forma, nos preguntamos si el comportamiento de aseo en T. setosus es similar a aquel observado en especies estrechamente relacionadas, y caracterizamos en detalle las principales categorías de comportamiento observadas en la especie. La ocurrencia de aseo personal (lavado de cara, lavado de cuerpo, lavado de la región pélvica y rascado) fue cuantificada durante sesiones únicas de 30 minutos en 16 individuos adultos (cuatro machos y doce hembras), en el contexto de actividad, reposo y categorías de mantenimiento (defecación y micción). Se identificaron las siguientes categorías de comportamiento: 1) actividad locomotora, 2) permanecer inmóvil, 3) defecar, 4) lavarse la cara, 5) lavarse el cuerpo, 6) lavarse la región pélvica, 7) rascarse, 8) orinar, 9) sacudirse, 10) vocalizar. El comportamiento de aseo siguió las descripciones estereotipadas para otras especies de roedores y su ocurrencia representó el 6.7 % (hembras) y el 5.9 % (machos) del tiempo estudiado. El aseo, visto en una gran variedad de taxones animales, involucra numerosas funciones además del propósito principal del cuidado del cuerpo, que son de gran importancia para el bienestar animal. En comparación con los roedores comúnmente estudiados, como ratas, ratones, hámsteres y conejillos de indias, T. setosus destina relativamente poco tiempo al comportamiento de aseo, de forma comparable a su especie hermana T. yonenagae

Purpose Adherence to international antiemetic prophylaxis guidelines like those of ASCO can result in better control of chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting; however, the extent of implementation of such guidelines in India is unknown. Therefore, this survey was planned. Methods This study was an anonymized cross-sectional survey approved by the ethics committee. Survey items were generated from the clinical questions given in the ASCO guidelines. The survey was disseminated through personal contacts at an oncology conference and via e-mail to various community oncology centers across India. The B1, B2, and B3 domains included questions regarding the optimal antiemetic prophylaxis for high, moderate, and low-minimal emetogenic regimens. Results Sixty-six (62.9%) of 105 responded and 65 centers (98.5%) were aware of the published guidelines. The partial, full, and no implementation scores were 92.5%, 4.5%, and 3.0%, respectively. Full implementation was better for the low-minimal emetogenic regimens (34.8%) than the highly emetogenic regimens (6.1%). The three most frequent reasons for hampered implementation of ASCO guidelines in routine chemotherapy practice cited by centers were a lack of sensitization (26 centers; 39.4%), lack of national guidelines (12 centers; 18.2%), and lack of administrative support (10 centers; 15.2%). Conclusion Awareness regarding ASCO antiemetic guidelines is satisfactory in Indian oncology practices; however, there is a need for sensitization of oncologists toward complete implementation of these guidelines in their clinical practice.

The paper discusses the role of the principle of the number six in the Vedic corps of ancient Indian phi-losophy and in the philosophy of ancient China. It is shown that number, counting, numerology in the culture of Ancient India and Ancient China played an important, metaphysical role. It justifies why in an-cient Indian philosophy there could be exactly six darshanas, since they exhausted the body of Vedic philosophy (astics). The rest of the schools of an-cient Indian philosophy, therefore, could not claim the status of darshan. The special significance of the number six for Chinese philosophy is also asso-ciated with the presence of six schools and with the Yin symbolism. Since the link «yin» – «yang» is im-portant for the ancient Chinese culture, the number «nine» (the symbol «yang») also acquires special significance for the ancient Chinese culture. It is assumed that together the numbers «nine» and «six» in Chinese culture mean «the number of the Sage».

Abstract The release of the Healthy Brain Initiative Road Map for Indian Country inspired the International Association for Indigenous Aging (IA2), Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to develop health communication materials to promote heart health and brain health among states with American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) communities. IA2 engaged public health, tribal health, and brain health experts to inform the key messages and intended audiences. The final package includes two posters, one flyer, one provider guide, four radio public service announcements, and two short videos. Tribal health officials and state health are encouraged to distribute the resources through senior centers and inter-tribal organizations, healthcare facilities, administrative offices, tribal newspapers/radio stations, and as mailers to tribal members. The session will focus on how the resources raise awareness of and promote action on heart and brain health among AI/AN communities.

AbstractTamil vernacular schools provide access to education and career opportunities for Indian Malaysians. Tamil schools are perceived to be an important component of Indian minority rights, an avenue for the Tamil-speaking community to establish and institutionalize their language and cultural identity. However, the government reduced its allocation for these schools in the 2021 budget. Indian political leaders, shouldering the responsibility to channel the discontent among Indians, have raised concerns on various platforms, such as newspapers, social media, and television interviews. It is imperative to observe how Indian political leaders prioritize minority rights while preserving their own or parties’ political interests. Politicians utilize rhetoric to influence the public, but few studies are conducted on the political discourse of Indian Malaysians. This chapter studies an interview in Vizhuthugal-Samugathin Kural, a Tamil talk show televised on Astro Vaanavil. Grounded in discourse studies, this chapter analyzes the (de)legitimizing strategies used by two prominent Indian politicians from MIC and DAP. Although the two parties hold opposite ideologies, this chapter highlights their similarities in advocating minority rights for Indian Malaysians.

AbstractLipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is an atherogenic lipoprotein with a strong genetic regulation. Up to 90% of the concentrations are explained by a single gene, the LPA gene. The concentrations show a several-hundred-fold interindividual variability ranging from less than 0.1 mg/dL to more than 300 mg/dL. Lp(a) plasma concentrations above 30 mg/dL and even more above 50 mg/dL are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease including myocardial infarction, stroke, aortic valve stenosis, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, and all-cause mortality. Since concentrations above 50 mg/dL are observed in roughly 20% of the Caucasian population and in an even higher frequency in African-American and Asian-Indian ethnicities, it can be assumed that Lp(a) is one of the most important genetically determined risk factors for cardiovascular disease.Carriers of genetic variants that are associated with high Lp(a) concentrations have a markedly increased risk for cardiovascular events. Studies that used these genetic variants as a genetic instrument to support a causal role for Lp(a) as a cardiovascular risk factor are called Mendelian randomization studies. The principle of this type of studies has been introduced and tested for the first time ever with Lp(a) and its genetic determinants.There are currently no approved pharmacologic therapies that specifically target Lp(a) concentrations. However, some therapies that target primarily LDL cholesterol have also an influence on Lp(a) concentrations. These are mainly PCSK9 inhibitors that lower LDL cholesterol by 60% and Lp(a) by 25–30%. Furthermore, lipoprotein apheresis lowers both, Lp(a) and LDL cholesterol, by about 60–70%. Some sophisticated study designs and statistical analyses provided support that lowering Lp(a) by these therapies also lowers cardiovascular events on top of the effect caused by lowering LDL cholesterol, although this was not the main target of the therapy. Currently, new therapies targeting RNA such as antisense oligonucleotides (ASO) or small interfering RNA (siRNA) against apolipoprotein(a), the main protein of the Lp(a) particle, are under examination and lower Lp(a) concentrations up to 90%. Since these therapies specifically lower Lp(a) concentrations without influencing other lipoproteins, they will serve the last piece of the puzzle whether a decrease of Lp(a) results also in a decrease of cardiovascular events.

Aston Martin has recently introduced itself to India. Many perceive it as a routine entry of another car maker. However, this specific entry isn’t coincidence, but a calculated move. It has to do with the recent unexpected growth in the Indian luxury car market which is more than just market dynamics. It is something which reflects a changing lifestyle pattern of a class which is called affluent. The growth rate for these cars with a price tag which is above Rs. 25 lacs has been 20% on average for the some years. When the whole world was facing recession the Indian luxury car market grew by 23% to 6671 units as per the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) despite half a percent decline in passenger car sales, to 11.04 lakh vehicles (Dovel, 2011). 2010 has shown growth in the automobile sector which was up by 25%. Indian luxury car market had been dominated by Mercedes Benz (entered in India in mid 1994) until 2009 where it was outscored by BMW which entered India in 2006. Mercedes Benz’s market share of 90% shrank to 38% and its market share largely fell to BMW which has 42%. This case will study the factors responsible for the growth of the Indian luxury car market with reference to BMW’s quick growth to the top with the help of cars customized for Indian infrastructure conditions, an aggressive distribution strategy, pricing designed in lieu of competition, and comprehensively smart promotional efforts.

From the geological mapping, structural, and metamorphic investigations along the main Himalayan Range from Zanskar in the west through the Himachal Pradesh and Kumaon regions of India and along the whole of Nepal to Sikkim, a similar story was emerging. The overall structure and distribution of metamorphic rocks and granites was remarkably similar from one geological profile to the next. The Lesser Himalaya, above the Main Boundary Thrust was composed of generally older sedimentary and igneous rocks, unaffected by the young Tertiary metamorphism. Travelling north towards the high peaks, the inverted metamorphism along the Main Central Thrust marked the lower boundary of the Tertiary metamorphic rocks formed as a result of the India–Asia collision. The large Himalayan granites, many forming the highest peaks, lay towards the upper boundary of the ‘Greater Himalayan sequence’. North of this, the sedimentary rocks of the Tethyan Himalaya crop out above the low-angle normal fault, the South Tibetan Detachment. The northern ranges of the Himalaya comprise the sedimentary rocks of the northern margin of India. The two corner regions of the Himalaya, however, appeared to be somewhat different. The Indian plate has two major syntaxes, where the structural grain of the mountains swings around through ninety degrees: the western syntaxis, centred on the mountain of Nanga Parbat in Pakistan, and the eastern syntaxis, centred on the mountain of Namche Barwa in south-east Tibet. Nanga Parbat (8,125 m) is a huge mountain massif at the north-western end of the great Himalayan chain. It is most prominent seen from the Indus Valley and the hills of Kohistan to the west, where it seems to stand in glorious isolation, ringed by the deep gorges carved by the Indus and Astor Rivers, before the great wall of snowy peaks forming the Karakoram to the north.

Anti-Microbial Resistance is one of the greatest threats that mankind faces right now due to the inappropriate use of antibiotics. Institution of appropriate antibiotics in right dose for the right patient at right time is the “gamechanger” in fighting AMR. Antibiotic Sensitivity Testing (AST) or antibiogram is done to ascertain the sensitivity profile of the organism. The most widely used method in laboratory practice in India is the Kirby-Bauer’s disk diffusion test. There are few shortcomings in the manual interpretation of antibiograms in the form of high inter-operator variability, mandatory requirement of trained microbiologists – which is difficult in low-resource settings and high degree of interpersonal bias due to various factors like stress, workload, and visual acuity. We propose the Ab.ai tool for automating the AST procedures in laboratory. The Ab.ai tool comprises of 3 phases: first for data collection, second for data processing and the third for generation of antibiotic sensitivity reports. Various software packages like OpenCV and EasyOCR are used for the development of the Ab.ai tool. A total of 50 antibiograms of both GPC and GNB are interpreted both by manual and automated method. The manual method is considered the “gold-standard” and the performance of Ab.ai tool was compared against the manual method. The Ab.ai tool achieved an agreement of 98.4% on susceptibility categorization of GPC antibiotics and 97.6% on that of GNB antibiotics against the gold standard manual method. The proposed Ab.ai tool serves as a perfect candidate for automating AST procedures and would prove to be a “game-changer” in battling AMR.

This paper presents a review on fly ash as prime materials used for geopolymer. Due to its advantages of abundant resources, less in cost, great workability and high physical properties, fly ash leads to achieving high mechanical properties. Fly ash is considered as one of the largest generated industrial solid wastes or so-called industrial by-products, around the world particularly in China, India, and USA. The characteristics of fly ash allow it to be a geotechnical material to produce geopolymer cement or concrete as an alternative of ordinary Portland cement. Many efforts are made in this direction to formulate a suitable mix design of fly ash-based geopolymer by focusing on fly ash as the main prime material. The physical properties, chemical compositions, and chemical activation of fly ash are analyzed and evaluated in this review paper. Reference has been made to different ASTM, ACI standards, and other researches work in geopolymer area.

Asthma is a perpetual lung infection that inflames and shortens the airways leading to intricacy in breathing. It affects 300 million human life globally out of which 20 million people are Indians, and every year about 2.5 lakh people die of asthma prematurely around the world. The estimation of asthma patients globally will exceed 100 million by the year 2025. All the deaths due to asthma are preventable with proper care and guidance [1]. This paper provides a user-friendly wearable device included with an android app that monitors the environmental factors faced by asthma patients as well as their health parameters and transmits the collected data to a cloud platform. The parameters are deliberated using special sensing element like temperature sensing unit, humidity sensing unit, gas sensor unit and pulse rate sensor unit. The evaluated parameters are the presence of polluted gas, abnormal temperature, humidity and pulse rate, and the specific location of the user. All these parameters are regularly updated in the display unit attached to the wearable device as well as in an android app, which consists of Asthma Symptom Test (AST) to predict the probability of asthma and it gives essential precautions to the patients by gathering details from the cloud which prevents them from provoking a severe attack. The proposed system was implemented and tested in real-time environment.

The current Leak Before Break (LBB) assessment is based primarily on the monotonic fracture tearing instability. In it the maximum design accident load is compared with the fracture-tearing resistance load. The effect of cyclic loading has generally not been considered in the fracture assessment of nuclear power plant piping. It is a well-known fact that the reversible cyclic loading decreases the fracture resistance of the material, which leads to increased crack growth. Indian nuclear power reactors consider Operational-Basis-Earthquake (OBE) and Safe-Shutdown-Earthquake (SSE) event in the design of various structures, systems and components. Keeping this in view a series of cyclic tearing test have been conducted on straight pipes, made of ASTM SA333 Gr.6 carbon steel. This is the material of primary heat transport (PHT) piping material of Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR). In this series 13 tests have been carried out on circumferentially through wall cracked seamless and circumferential seam welded straight pipes under reversible cyclic bending loading. All the tests have been conducted under quasi-static i.e. slow loading rates and the dynamic effect is not considered. The cyclic test results have been compared with the corresponding monotonic pipe fracture test results. These test results and its comparison with corresponding monotonic tearing clearly illustrates the need of addressing the reduction in apparent fracture toughness of material under reversible cyclic loading and safe number of load cycles in the LBB assessment.

Linz-Donawitz slag (LDS) is a major solid waste generated in huge quantities during steel making. Although a number of ways for its utilization have been suggested in the past, its potential as a possible erosion resistant coating material has not yet been explored. This work is an attempt to develop functional coatings of this LDS on metal substrates by plasma spraying. The coating deposition is carried out using an 80 kW atmospheric plasma spray system working in non-transferred arc mode at different torch input powers (10–24 kW). Coatings are characterized in terms of their thickness and adhesion strength. Coating deposition efficiency is calculated to assess the coatability and XRD is done to ascertain the phases present in the coating. It is found that the operating power levels of the plasma torch affect the adhesion strength, deposition efficiency and mean thickness of the coatings. Solid particle erosion trials, as per ASTM G76 test standards, are conducted on the coating samples following a well planned experimental schedule based on Taguchi design of experiments. This work reveals that LDS is eminently coatable with deposition efficiency as high as 33% and can be gainfully used as a cost-effective wear resistant coating material.

Resumen macroeconómico En el primer trimestre la inflación anual (8,5 %) continuó aumentando y superó de nuevo los pronósticos del promedio del mercado y del equipo técnico del Banco. En lo corrido del año todas las grandes canastas del índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) se aceleraron, y a marzo sus variaciones anuales se sitúan por encima del 3 %. El grupo de alimentos (25,4 %) continuó siendo el que más contribuyó al incremento de la inflación, afectado, en gran parte, por deterioros en la oferta externa y por costos crecientes de los insumos agrícolas. El aumento en los precios de algunos servicios públicos (energía y gas) y del transporte explicaron la aceleración en la canasta de regulados (8,3 %). Por su parte, la mayor persistencia de los choques de oferta y de costos externos, los efectos de la indexación, las presiones inflacionarias acumuladas provenientes de la tasa de cambio y un cierre de los excesos de capacidad productiva más rápido de lo previsto explicarían el aumento en la inflación sin alimentos ni regulados (4,5 %). Dentro de esta última canasta, las presiones externas alcistas han impactado de forma importante el grupo de bienes (6,4 %), el cual se viene acelerando desde el último trimestre de 2021. En el caso de los servicios (3,8 %), su variación anual por encima de la meta obedece principalmente al comportamiento de las comidas fuera del hogar (14,1 %), afectadas por el fuerte incremento en los precios de los alimentos, de los servicios públicos y del salario mínimo mensual legal vigente (SMMLV). Los precios de los arrendamientos y el resto de servicios registran aumentos crecientes, si bien aún inferiores al 3 %. El pronóstico y las expectativas de inflación aumentaron y se mantienen por encima de la meta como consecuencia, en parte, de unas presiones externas (precios y costos) más persistentes de lo estimado en el Informe de enero (gráficos 1.1 y 1.2). La invasión de Rusia a Ucrania ha intensificado estas presiones alcistas, en particular sobre los precios internacionales de algunos bienes e insumos agrícolas, la energía y el petróleo. Así, la nueva proyección de la inflación supone unos precios internacionales de alimentos que aumentarían hasta mediados de año y que se mantendrían altos y relativamente estables en el resto de 2022. Supone, asimismo, una recuperación menos dinámica de la oferta de alimentos perecederos como resultado de los altos precios de los insumos agrícolas. También, que los precios del petróleo empiecen a ceder desde el segundo semestre del presente año, pero desde valores superiores a los considerados en el Informe anterior. Frente al mismo, una senda proyectada de inflación más alta podría acentuar la indexación y elevar las expectativas de inflación. Adicionalmente, la reversión de la rebaja del impuesto al valor agregado (IVA) aplicada a productos de aseo e higiene por cuenta del vencimiento de la emergencia sanitaria generaría aumentos en los precios de estos bienes. A todo esto se suma la ausencia de excesos de capacidad productiva en el horizonte de pronóstico, con niveles de brecha de producto cercanos a cero y algo más altos de lo proyectado en enero pasado. Así, hasta junio la inflación anual continuaría en niveles altos similares a los actuales, para luego descender, aunque de una forma más lenta que la proyectada en el informe anterior. El proceso de ajuste de la tasa de interés de política monetaria contribuiría a que la inflación y sus expectativas retomen su convergencia a la meta en el horizonte de pronóstico. Así, al finalizar 2022 la inflación terminaría alrededor del 7,1 % para luego descender al 4,8 % en 2023. La actividad económica volvió a sorprender al alza y el pronóstico de crecimiento económico para 2022 aumentó desde el 4,3 % al 5 % (Gráfico 1.3). En el cuarto trimestre de 2021 el aumento anual del producto (10,7 %), superior al estimado, estuvo impulsado por la dinámica de la demanda interna, principalmente por el significativo desempeño del consumo privado, con niveles muy superiores a los registrados antes de la pandemia. La inversión también registró una recuperación importante, pero sin alcanzar los niveles de 2019 y con comportamientos mixtos en sus componentes. El déficit de la balanza comercial se amplió, con un notable crecimiento de las importaciones similar al de las exportaciones. Frente al Informe de enero, el índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de enero y febrero sugiere que el nivel del producto del primer trimestre alcanzaría registros superiores a los estimados y que el choque de demanda positivo observado al final de 2021 podría estar desvaneciéndose más lentamente de lo anticipado. En el caso particular del consumo, las importaciones de bienes de este tipo, las cifras de comercio al por menor, los ingresos reales de restaurantes y hoteles, y las compras con tarjeta de crédito indican que el gasto de los hogares sigue dinámico, con niveles similares a los registrados a finales de 2021. Las cifras de lanzamientos e iniciaciones de obras y las importaciones de bienes de capital sugieren que la inversión se seguiría recuperando, pero mantendría valores inferiores a los de prepandemia. Para lo que resta del año se espera que el consumo se desacelere desde los altos niveles alcanzados en los últimos dos trimestres en el entorno de unas condiciones financieras internas y externas menos holgadas, agotamiento del efecto de demanda represada y deterioro del ingreso disponible debido al aumento de la inflación. La inversión continuaría recuperándose, mientras que el déficit comercial se reduciría, favorecido por los altos precios del petróleo y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país. Con todo esto, se proyecta un crecimiento económico del 7,2 % (antes 5,2 %) para el primer trimestre y del 5,0 % (antes 4,3 %) para todo 2022. En 2023 el crecimiento del producto continuaría moderándose (2,9 %, antes 3,1 %), convergiendo a tasas cercanas a las de largo plazo. Las nuevas estimaciones sugieren que, en el horizonte de pronóstico, la brecha del producto se mantendría en niveles cercanos a cero, pero más cerrada que lo proyectado en enero (Gráfico 1.4). Estos pronósticos de actividad económica continúan enfrentando niveles altos de incertidumbre asociados con las tensiones geopolíticas y las condiciones del financiamiento externo, la incertidumbre propia del ciclo electoral y la evolución de la pandemia. La proyección del crecimiento de la demanda externa se redujo, en un contexto de mayores presiones sobre la inflación global, de altos precios del petróleo y de condiciones financieras internacionales menos holgadas que las estimadas en enero. La invasión de Rusia a Ucrania y sus efectos alcistas sobre los precios de algunos bienes e insumos agrícolas y las cotizaciones del petróleo acentuaron las presiones inflacionarias globales originadas por restricciones de oferta y aumento de costos internacionales. La caída en la oferta de crudo desde Rusia, los niveles bajos de inventarios y la persistencia de recortes de producción por parte de la Organización de Países Productores de Petróleo y sus aliados (OPEP+) explican el alza en el supuesto del precio del petróleo para 2022 (USD 100,8 por barril, antes USD 75,3 por barril) y 2023 (USD 86,8 por barril, antes USD 71,2 por barril). En los Estados Unidos el aumento de la inflación y de sus expectativas, junto con el buen desempeño del mercado laboral y de la actividad económica, incrementaron la senda esperada de la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal (Fed) para el presente y el siguiente año. La normalización de la política monetaria en varias economías desarrolladas y emergentes, los choques más persistentes de oferta y de costos, y los rebrotes del Covid-19 en algunos países de Asia contribuyeron a reducir el pronóstico promedio de crecimiento de los socios comerciales del país para 2022 (2,8 %, antes 3,3 %) y 2023 (2,4 %, antes 2,6 %). En este contexto, la senda proyectada de la prima de riesgo para el país aumentó, en parte como reflejo de las mayores tensiones geopolíticas globales, una política monetaria menos expansiva en los Estados Unidos, el incremento en la percepción de riesgo para los mercados emergentes y por factores internos, como los desbalances macroeconómicos acumulados y la incertidumbre política. Todo esto se resume en unas condiciones de financiamiento externo menos holgadas que las estimadas en enero. No obstante, los niveles de incertidumbre de los pronósticos externos y su impacto sobre el escenario macroeconómico del país se mantienen elevados, dada la imprevisible evolución del conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania, así como de la pandemia. Este escenario macroeconómico, caracterizado por una alta inflación, pronósticos y expectativas de inflación superiores al 3 %, además de una brecha de producto cercana a cero, implica un mayor riesgo de desanclaje de las expectativas de inflación y un espacio muy limitado para una política monetaria expansiva. Frente a los pronósticos del Informe de enero, el desempeño de la demanda interna ha sido más dinámico y los excesos de capacidad productiva se habrían cerrado más rápido. Además de este factor, las sorpresas al alza de la inflación total y básica son el reflejo de unos choques externos más fuertes y persistentes de oferta y costos. La invasión de Rusia a Ucrania hizo más agudas y persistentes las restricciones de oferta y las presiones de costos internacionales, y explicó, en parte, el incremento en la senda de pronóstico de la inflación, a niveles que superan la meta en los siguientes dos años. Las expectativas de inflación volvieron a incrementarse y superan el 3 %. Todo lo anterior aumentó el riesgo de desanclaje de las expectativas de inflación y podría generar procesos de indexación generalizados que alejen aún más la inflación de la meta. Este nuevo contexto macroeconómico sugiere que habría un espacio muy reducido para una política monetaria expansiva. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria La Junta Directiva del Banco de la República (JDBR) decidió continuar con el proceso de ajuste de la política monetaria y en sus reuniones de marzo y abril de 2022 decidió, por mayoría, incrementar la tasa de política monetaria en 100 puntos básicos (pb) en cada una, llevándola al 6,0 % (Gráfico 1.5).