To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model (ARDL).
Journal articles on the topic 'Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model (ARDL)'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 journal articles for your research on the topic 'Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model (ARDL).'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse journal articles on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Ningrum, Dewi Kusuma, and Sugiyarto Surono. "Comparison the Error Rate of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) (Case study: Forecast of Export Quantities in DIY)." JURNAL EKSAKTA 18, no. 2 (2018): 167–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.20885/eksakta.vol18.iss2.art8.
Full textAbstract:
Forecasting is estimating the size or number of something in the future. Regression model that enters current independent variable value, and lagged value is called distributed-lag model, if it enters one or more lagged value, it is called autoregressive. Koyck method is used for dynamic model which the lagged length is unknown, for the known lagged length it is used the Almon method. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) is a method that explains every variable in the model depend on the lag movement from the variable itself and all the others variable. This research aimed to explain the application of Autoregressive distributed-lag model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method for the forecasting for export amount in DIY. It takes export amount in DIY and inflation data, kurs, and Indonesias foreign exchange reserve. Forecasting formation: defining Koyck and Almon distributed-lag dynamic model, then the best model is chosen and distribution-lag dynamic forecasting is performed. After that it is performed stationary test, co-integration test, optimal lag examination, granger causality test, parameter estimation, VAR model stability, and performs forecasting with VAR method. The forecasting result shows MAPE value from ARDL method obtained is 0.475812%, while MAPE value from VAR method is 0.464473%. Thus it can be concluded that Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method is more effective to be used in case study of export amount in DIY forecasting. Keywords: Koyck; Almon; Lag; Autoregressive Distributed-Lag; Vector Autoregressive;
2
Peverga, Kator. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Model Approach." International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science VIII, no. IV (2024): 248–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2024.804020.
Full textAbstract:
The rationale behind undertaking this study stems from the observation that prior studies have failed to establish a consensus regarding the impact of trade openness on economic growth, largely due to research methodological deficiencies. Thus, this study investigated thе impact of tradе opеnnеss on Nigеria’s еconomic growth from 1980 to 2022. Thе Autorеgrеssivе Distributеd Laggеd (ARDL) Modеl was usеd to dеtеrminе thе long-run and short-run еffеcts of thеsе variablеs. Thе rеsults show that tradе opеnnеss positivеly impacts Nigеria’s long-tеrm еconomic growth, that is increased trade liberalization leads to increased long-run growth. The study recommends Nigeria’s government to promote trade libеralization, rеducе barriеrs, and еnhancе tradе tеrms by divеrsifying еxports and adding valuе.
3
Xiao, Hui, and Yiguo Sun. "Forecasting the Returns of Cryptocurrency: A Model Averaging Approach." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 13, no. 11 (2020): 278. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13110278.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims to enrich the understanding and modelling strategies for cryptocurrency markets by investigating major cryptocurrencies’ returns determinants and forecast their returns. To handle model uncertainty when modelling cryptocurrencies, we conduct model selection for an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using several popular penalized least squares estimators to explain the cryptocurrencies’ returns. We further introduce a novel model averaging approach or the shrinkage Mallows model averaging (SMMA) estimator for forecasting. First, we find that the returns for most cryptocurrencies are sensitive to volatilities from major financial markets. The returns are also prone to the changes in gold prices and the Forex market’s current and lagged information. Then, when forecasting cryptocurrencies’ returns, we further find that an ARDL(p,q) model estimated by the SMMA estimator outperforms the competing estimators and models out-of-sample.
4
Obadi, Saleh Mothana, and Matej Korcek. "The Relationship between Geopolitical Events and the Crude Oil Prices: An Application of ARDL Model." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 14, no. 5 (2024): 85–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16487.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims to explore the short-run and long-run relationship between geopolitical events and crude oil prices for the period 2000-2023. In addition to geopolitical events, we included the market factors whose data were available in the right part of the equation. To investigate long-run cointegration, this paper used quarterly data and employed the Autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach developed by (Pesaran et al., 2001). Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run and short-run association between geopolitical events and crude oil prices. Furthermore, the findings from the ARDL model revealed that, among others, world crude oil production; OECD’s crude oil stocks, and OECD economic growth have a significant effect on the dependent variable (crude oil prices) both in the long run and short run.
5
Baral, Madhab Prasad. "Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model on Climate Change Impact on Outmigration in Nepal." Prithvi Academic Journal 8 (May 27, 2025): 13–30. https://doi.org/10.3126/paj.v8i1.78889.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change exacerbates Nepal's exposure to environmental hazards like landslides, floods, and droughts, which degrade agricultural productivity and drive forced displacement, particularly from rural areas to cities and overseas. This study investigates the interplay of climatic variables (maximum/minimum temperatures, rainfall) and economic indicators (paddy yield, GDP per capita) on human outmigration from 1993 to 2021. Employing time-series analyses, including augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for stationarity, correlation matrices, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, and error correction mechanisms, we disentangle long- and short-term dynamics. Long-term findings reveal significant relationships (5 percent level) between outmigration and both current and lagged GDP per capita, lagged maximum temperature, lagged rainfall, and lagged migration rates, highlighting delayed climatic impacts and persistent economic influences. Short-term analyses identify GDP per capita (5 percent significance) and prior migration trends (10 percent significance) as immediate drivers, emphasizing path dependency in migration decisions. Granger causality tests demonstrate unidirectional links: minimum temperature Granger-causes outmigration, GDP per capita influences maximum temperature, and paddy yield affects both minimum temperature and GDP per capita (all 5 percent significance). These results underscore the dual pressures of economic precarity and climatic stressors, where declining agricultural productivity and erratic weather patterns synergistically exacerbate migration. The study advocates for integrated policy.
6
Maku, Olukayode Emmanuel, Emmanuel Ogbonna Ajike, and Solomon Chimereze Chinedu. "Human Capital Development and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach." ETIKONOMI 18, no. 2 (2019): 185–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/etk.v18i2.11701.
Full textAbstract:
Developed nations continue to invest heavily in the development and training of their human resources. Huge budgetary allocations show it to education and health, yet Nigeria’s human capital development policy has only been effective on paper. This study examined the impact of human capital development on the macroeconomic performance of Nigeria. Using the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, this study shows an insignificant negative relationship between human capital development and per capita GDP in the short run. The results also showed that only the tertiary enrolment rate significantly and positively improved per capita GDP within the period under review. The study concluded that the government’s efforts aimed at boosting human capital have been insufficient.JEL Classification: O47, J11, J24
7
Khoirina, Jami’atul, Denny Nurdiansyah, and Alif Yuanita Kartini. "AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELING FOR RICE PRICE PREDICTOR ANALYSIS IN BOJONEGORO REGENCY." Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya 9, no. 1 (2025): 89–101. https://doi.org/10.21009/jsa.09108.
Full textAbstract:
Rice price fluctuations in Bojonegoro Regency are driven by complex interactions of economic, social, and environmental elements. These dynamics have a direct impact on the welfare of low-income households, making it essential to understand the underlying factors to support effective price stabilization efforts. Addressing this issue requires a comprehensive econometric model capable of capturing both immediate and lagged effects of relevant variables. This study analyzes the main drivers of rice price changes in Bojonegoro Regency by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. It focuses on how variables such as dried corn prices, rice consumption, harvest area, rice production, and money exchange rates contribute to rice price volatility. The ARDL model is employed to explore both short-term and long-term relationships between selected variables and rice prices. Model selection is guided by performance indicators including the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), R-Square, as well as results from stationarity, cointegration, and classical assumption tests. The study utilizes secondary data sourced from the Bojonegoro Regency Food Security and Agriculture Office and the Bojonegoro Statistics Agency. The optimal model, identified as ARDL (3,4,4,4,4,0), produces an R-Square of 97.13% and the lowest AIC among alternatives. The analysis reveals that dried corn prices, rice consumption, harvest area, and rice production significantly influence rice prices, each with distinct lag structures. The money exchange rate, however, is found to have no significant effect. This study does not account for policy-specific variables or broader external factors such as global climate change or international trade regulations, which may also impact rice prices. Additionally, the availability and quality of secondary data may affect the model’s predictive accuracy. By incorporating lag structures and localized economic factors, this research offers a robust predictive framework tailored to Bojonegoro Regency. It provides practical insights for policymakers aiming to enhance rice price stability and protect household purchasing power.
8
Qamruzzaman, Md, and Jianguo Wei. "Financial Innovation, Stock Market Development, and Economic Growth: An Application of ARDL Model." International Journal of Financial Studies 6, no. 3 (2018): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030069.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, financial innovation, and stock market development of Bangladesh for the period 1980–2016. To investigate long-run cointegration, this study used the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach. In addition, the Granger-causality test is used to identify directional causality between research variables under the error correction term. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation, stock market development, and economic growth. Furthermore, the findings from the Granger-causality test support bidirectional causality between financial innovation, economic growth and stock market development, and economic growth both in the long run and short run. These findings support the theory that market-based financial development and financial innovation in the financial system can spur economic development.
9
Madaki, Gwong Timothy, and Benedict Akanegbu. "An autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bound testing approach to electricity supply and electricity tariff in Nigeria." Journal of Global Economics and Business 4, no. 13 (2023): 227–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.58934/jgeb.v4i13.149.
Full textAbstract:
The paper empirically employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Bound Test Approach to evaluate data acquired from the CBN Statistical Bulletin, NBS, MYTO-2015 Distribution Tariffs, NERC, PHCN, NEPA, and WB/WDI Database from 1971 to 2021. The ARDL result estimate indicates that in the short and long run electricity supplies is consequential but no influence on electricity tariff and gross domestic product. This indicates that when electricity supplies grow, so does electricity tariff and gross domestic product; however, the gain is not statistically significant. Long-run and short–run electricity supply has not favor and no influence on per capita income. This suggests that as electricity supply increase, per capita income declines. The ECM coefficient, which represents the disequilibrium, is adjusted and brought back to equilibrium at a rate of 22.9% the next year. The R2 of around (77.9%) percent and the adj-R2 of about (74.4%) percent indicated that the model fit well since these levels of total variations in power supply were explained by changes in the explanatory variables. We concluded that it is essential for the development of the Nigerian electricity supply business to have a tariff that would balance the interaction between electricity supply and electricity tariffs while also ensuring a margin of returns on investment. This study recommends that Federal Government of Nigeria should spend extensively in the transmission subsector of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) to increase its efficiency. In addition, private sector investment in electricity should be encouraged, as industry predictions for the next decade show a favorable trend, coupled with continuous macroeconomic progress.
10
Anarah, Samuel Emeka, Ahaneku Chinwendu Evangel, Ositanwosu Chukwunonso.O, Ogulewe Divine Onyema, and Ezeude Nwando Assumpta. "EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CASSAVA PRODUCTIVITY IN NIGERIA: LONG- AND SHORT-TERM EFFECT." International Journal of Agriculture, Environment and Bioresearch 10, no. 02 (2025): 67–80. https://doi.org/10.35410/ijaeb.2025.5970.
Full textAbstract:
This study analyzed the effects of climate change on cassava productivity in Nigeria from 1991 to 2022. It assessed how climate variables such as rainfall, temperature, sunshine duration, carbon dioxide emissions, and relative humidity influenced cassava productivity. The research utilized secondary data analyzed through econometric models, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The findings revealed in the long-run, Average Annual Rainfall (LNARF), Average Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions (LNDACDE), a lagged value of Average Annual Temperature (LNDATEMP (-1)), a lagged value of Average Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions (LNDACDE (-1)), and Average Annual Sunshine Duration (LNASUN) exhibit significant impacts on cassava productivity. Average Annual Inflation Rate (LNDINFR) were the significant variables that influenced cassava productivity between 1991 and 2022. In the short run, the ARDL model shows that among the climate variables, the current values of average annual rainfall (DLN(ARF)), average annual temperature (DLN(DATEMP)), average annual relative humidity (DLN(DARELH)), average annual sunshine duration (DLN(ASUN)), and the area of land under cassava cultivation (DLN(DALUC_CASSAVA)) exhibit significant impacts on cassava productivity in Nigeria.
11
Ebrahim, Ehab Ebrahim Mohamed, Mohamed R. Abonazel, Awadelkarim Elamin Altahir Ahmed, Suzan Abdel-Rahman, and Walaa Abdullah Abdullah Albeltagy. "Analysis of the Economic and Environmental Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions in Egypt: A Proposed Dynamic Econometric Model." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 15, no. 4 (2025): 152–65. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.19222.
Full textAbstract:
Developing nations have environmental issues due to their dependence on non-renewable energy sources for economic development. This paper analyzed the interplay between CO₂ emissions and five economic variables, namely land under cereal production (LAND), manufacturing (MANUF), trade openness (TRADE), GDP per capita (GDPPC), and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt from 1990 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine both short-term and long-term relationships. The results indicated that the ARDL (1,1,2,2,0, 0) is the optimal model, which has the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value. The variables of MANUF and GDPPC negatively affected CO₂ emissions, but the TRADE and LAND variables had positive long-term effects. The lagged periods of TRADE and LAND variables have significantly affected CO₂ levels. The results of the error correction model indicate that the speed of return to long-run equilibrium after a short-run deviation occurs within about 4.5 years based on the value of the error correction term.
12
Bahubal, Dev. "STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN ARDL APPROACH." INTERANTIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 08, no. 05 (2024): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.55041/ijsrem33063.
Full textAbstract:
This research project employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the intricate relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The primary objective is to systematically analyze the causal links and quantify the impact of key stock market indicators on economic growth, and vice versa. The methodology encompasses a thorough literature review to establish a theoretical framework, followed by the collection and examination of relevant data over a defined timeframe. Unit root tests and cointegration analysis are applied to assess the stationarity and long-term relationships between the variables. The ARDL model is then employed to estimate the dynamic interactions, considering lagged values of the indicators. Diagnostic tests are conducted to ensure the robustness of the findings. The project aims to contribute empirical insights into both short- and long-term dynamics, shedding light on the complex interplay between stock market development and economic growth. The results are expected to offer valuable implications for policymakers and researchers, providing evidence-based guidance for fostering sustainable economic development. Ultimately, this research seeks to advance our understanding of the mechanisms driving economic growth in the context of stock market development. Keywords: Stock Market Development, Economic Growth, ARDL Approach, Causal Relationship, Lagged Variables, Unit Root Tests, Cointegration Analysis, Empirical Insights, Sustainable Economic Development, Policy Implications.
13
Hassan Elnasikh, Sara. "The Factors Affecting Exports of Gum Talha after changing the Gum Arabic Specifications in 1998 Using ARDL Model." Journal of Agricultural Science 4, no. 1 (2022): 107–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.52981/fajas.v4i1.2762.
Full textAbstract:
This research aimed to identify the most important factors affecting the exports of gum Talha after changes in gum arabic specifications in 1998. Secondary data covered the period 1999-2018 was used. A co-integration analysis is performed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach. The study demonstrated the significant long-run relationship between exports of gum Talha and gum Talha FOB with an elasticity of (-1.67), gum Hashab’s FOB with an elasticity of (1.33) and lagged exports of gum Hashab with an elasticity of (1.34). Also, it demonstrated the significant short-run relationship between exports of gum Talha and gum Talha FOB (-0.96), gum Hashab FOB (.75), lagged exports of gum Hashab (0.14) and abolishment of monopoly using dummy variables (1.81). The demand for gum Talha export and Hashab gum FOB price indicated cross elasticity which was significantly elastic in the long run but insignificantly inelastic in the short run. The study concluded that there is an increase in the global demand for Sudan gum Talha but gum Talha and gum Hashab are not alternative export commodities.
14
Ogunmola, Omotoso Oluseye, Nahanga Verter, and Abiodun Elijah Obayelu. "Factors Influencing the Prices of Rice, Maize and Wheat Prices in Nigeria." Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics 15, no. 1 (2023): 113–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.7160/aol.2023.150109.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the impact of agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and imports on Nigeria’s food commodity prices using annual data from 1981 to 2018. Data obtained were analysed using the unit root test, cointegration test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to evaluate the long-run and short-run effects of the hypothesized variables on the food commodity prices. The results reveal that maize import value and exchange rate significantly affect the price of maize in the short-run. In contrast, the lagged price of maize, maize output and the past value of maize imports are the factors that influenced the current price of maize within the review period. Also, the lagged price of rice, rice output and the lagged value of rice imported in the immediate year exerted significant influences on the price of rice in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study indicates that the lagged price of wheat, the import value of wheat and the lagged wheat import value were statistically significant in influencing wheat price in Nigeria. Hence, policies for flexibility in the harmonization of exchange rate movements strengthen domestic agricultural performance.
15
khan, Ayaz, Zahoor ul Haq, and Javed Iqbal. "Evaluating the Determinants and Sustainability of Public Debt for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Countries." Global Economics Review VI, no. II (2021): 24–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/ger.2021(vi-ii).03.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the sustainability and relationship of public debt to selected macroeconomic variables for South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries from 1996 to 2017. For the relationship of public debt to macroeconomic variables, we employ a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model. For sustainability measurement of public debt, we used a theoretically derived model based on necessary and sufficient conditions. The panel ARDL results for the long run show that the savinginvestment gap and economic growth negatively while the budget deficit and current account positively explain public debt. The sustainability measurement results based on necessary and sufficient conditions reveal that public debt remains unsustainable for most of the years in the presence of macroeconomic variables. It is recommended that countries in this association should formulate policies that promote saving culture. This saving culture may not only promote investment but also can affect the current account situation of these countries.
16
Alehile, Kehinde Samuel and Joseph Sesan. "Modelling the impact of climate change on Nigeria’s agricultural sector: A nonlinear modelling approach." International Journal of Advanced Economics 7, no. 4 (2025): 106–19. https://doi.org/10.51594/ijae.v7i4.1866.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change is posing increasing concerns to agricultural output and food security worldwide. This study explores the asymmetric influences of climatic conditions on Nigeria's agricultural output using yearly time series data from 1986 to 2022. This is based on the fact that climate change manifestations in the agriculture sector come in the form of an increase or decrease in climatic variables such as rainfall or temperature. Therefore, the use of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach models the nonlinear relationships between temperature, rainfall and agricultural output. Rainfall and temperature indices capture climate variability relative to baseline levels. The model quantifies both immediate and lagged effects of increasing/decreasing rainfall and temperatures on sectoral performance. Cointegration tests confirm long-run equilibrium associations. The estimated asymmetric error correction model reveals rising temperatures and declining rainfall significantly hamper agricultural GDP in the short run. A 1% temperature increase reduces output by N5.1 billion whereas a 1% fall in rainfall lowers it by N9.7 billion. Long-run climate sensitivities also indicate rainfall variability critically constrains productivity. The negative rainfall coefficients agree with agronomic evidence that water stress and droughts diminish yields. Contrastingly, temperature impacts fade over time. Based on the findings of the study, it therefore recommends the development and promotion of heat and drought-resistant crop and livestock varieties to counter the negative impacts of rising temperatures and declining rainfall on agricultural productivity. Keywords: Climate Change, Agricultural Sector, Nonlinear, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model.
17
Maku, Olukayode E., Emmanuel O. Ajike, and Solomon Chinedu. "Human Capital Development and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach." Valahian Journal of Economic Studies 10, no. 1 (2019): 51–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/vjes-2019-0005.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract While developed and most developing nations have seen the need and continue to invest heavily in the development and training of her manpower as shown by huge budgetary allocations to education and health, Nigeria continues to play politics with her human capital development policy which has been poor and only been effective on paper despite the huge outlay of human capital available at our disposal. This study therefore examined the impact of human capital development on the macroeconomic performance of Nigeria. Using autoregressive distributed lagged model, the study proxied human capital development using government expenditure on education, government expenditure on health, secondary school enrolment rate, and school enrolment rate at tertiary level, while per capita GDP was used as proxy variable for measuring macroeconomic performance. The results of the estimated short and long run ARDL models indicated, an insignificant and negative relationship between human capital development and gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) in the short run. Another result of this study is that, only tertiary enrolment rate (TER) has a significant and positive impact on gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC). This finding was an indication of relatively good but insufficient efforts by government to boost human capital. The study concluded that while human capital development is crucial for accelerated macroeconomic performance, government efforts aimed at boosting human capital has had a depressing effect on macroeconomic performance. On the strength of this, the study recommended that government and economic policy makers in Nigeria should place greater emphasis on human capital development.
18
Cao, Huashen. "Exploring the link between CO2 emissions, economic growth, urbanization and transportation infrastructure in China: Evidence from the ARDL model." International Journal of Renewable Energy Development 14, no. 4 (2025): 657–67. https://doi.org/10.61435/ijred.2025.61247.
Full textAbstract:
As the challenge of global climate change becomes increasingly severe, carbon emissions have become a key constraint on sustainable development. This study aims to explore the impact of economic growth, urbanization, and transportation infrastructure on carbon emissions in China. Using time-series data from 1977 to 2022, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the short-term and long-term dynamic relationships between these variables, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to assess the causal relationships. The ARDL regression results show that, in the short run, economic growth has an immediate significant positive effect on carbon emissions, while urbanization exhibits mixed lagged effects—initially increasing and later reducing emissions. Transportation infrastructure has no immediate impact but shows a significant emission-reducing effect through its lagged terms. In the long run, economic growth exhibits an insignificant negative impact on emissions, urbanization has an insignificant positive effect, and the expansion of transportation infrastructure is positively associated with increased carbon emissions. Granger causality analysis reveals that carbon emissions and urbanization exhibit a bidirectional causal relationship in the short run. In the long run, carbon emissions are mutually causal with economic growth, and are also unidirectionally influenced by transportation infrastructure. This study emphasizes the importance of developing an integrated policy framework to balance economic growth, urbanization, and transportation infrastructure with environmental sustainability.
19
Solomon, Kebede Menza, Getachew Zerihun, Kuma Berhanu, and Abebe Tora. "The Dynamics of Foreign Public Debt and Foreign Exchange Reserve of Ethiopia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach." International Journal of Management and Humanities (IJMH) 6, no. 1 (2021): 13–27. https://doi.org/10.35940/ijmh.L1371.0851221.
Full textAbstract:
External public debt and foreign exchange reserve (FER) are performing a crucial role in the growth and development of countries. To examine the short-run and long-run dynamics among external public debt (EPD) and FER in Ethiopia, the study used 39 years data (1981 to 2019) from National bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and World Bank data sets. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with error correction model (ECM) was employed after checking the possible assumptions of economic series. The results of ADF test statistics confirms our economic series are stationary with a mixture of level form and first difference form. Bounds co-integration test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. According to the descriptive method of data analysis, on average, in Ethiopia the trend for service sector indicated that an ever improvement of the sector throughout the periods and supplementing the notion of change from agriculture base to service sector. On the other hand, according to ARDL model in the short -run on average trade tariff rate, share of manufacturing sector from the GDP, and lagged value of EPD itself predicts the EPD significantly at least at less than 10% level of significance . Moreover, the ECM revealed that in the long-run, financial development indicator, debt service payment, and average trade tariff rate were predicting the stock of FER for Ethiopian economy. Finally, the concerned body, the government of Ethiopia, should limit or reduce the amount of external debt (ED) inflows, and recheck the budget sources for financing different projects especially manufacturing industries rather than highly basing on external sources in the form of EPD, among others.
20
Menza, Solomon Kebede, Zerihun Getachew, Berhanu Kuma, and Tora Abebe. "The Dynamics of Foreign Public Debt and Foreign Exchange Reserve of Ethiopia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach." International Journal of Management and Humanities 6, no. 1 (2021): 13–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.35940/ijmh.l1371.0851221.
Full textAbstract:
External public debt and foreign exchange reserve (FER) are performing a crucial role in the growth and development of countries. To examine the short-run and long-run dynamics among external public debt (EPD) and FER in Ethiopia, the study used 39 years data (1981 to 2019) from National bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and World Bank data sets. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with error correction model (ECM) was employed after checking the possible assumptions of economic series. The results of ADF test statistics confirms our economic series are stationary with a mixture of level form and first difference form. Bounds co-integration test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. According to the descriptive method of data analysis, on average, in Ethiopia the trend for service sector indicated that an ever improvement of the sector throughout the periods and supplementing the notion of change from agriculture base to service sector. On the other hand, according to ARDL model in the short -run on average trade tariff rate, share of manufacturing sector from the GDP, and lagged value of EPD itself predicts the EPD significantly at least at less than 10% level of significance . Moreover, the ECM revealed that in the long-run, financial development indicator, debt service payment, and average trade tariff rate were predicting the stock of FER for Ethiopian economy. Finally, the concerned body, the government of Ethiopia, should limit or reduce the amount of external debt (ED) inflows, and recheck the budget sources for financing different projects especially manufacturing industries rather than highly basing on external sources in the form of EPD, among others.
21
Acharya, Santosh. "Impact of Trade, Remittance and BOP on the Economic Growth of Nepal: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Bound Testing Model." Khwopa Journal 6, no. 2 (2024): 61–73. https://doi.org/10.3126/kjour.v6i2.73149.
Full textAbstract:
This article explores the impact of trade openness, remittance, and BOP on the real GDP in Nepal. This research uses the ARDL Bound Testing model, considering the secondary data collected from the Ministry of Finance, which ranges from 1990 to 2022. This research aims to identify the impact of the external sector on the country's economic growth. The result establishes that BOP has adverse short and long-term effects on the country's economic growth, which indicates the variable's sensitivity. The trade openness rate also has a negative impact; however, remittance positively affects the long run. Hence, the government of Nepal should focus more on rationalising the remittance for the country's economic growth. However, on the other hand, working on trade policy should be a broad discussion to mitigate the negative impact on the country's economic growth.
22
Kondri, Blerta, and Nimete Berisha. "Economic Volatility in North Macedonia: ARDL Modelling of the Effects on Economic Growth." Trends in Economics, Finance and Management Journal 7, no. 1 (2025): 55–65. https://doi.org/10.69648/fdcp2495.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of this research is to investigate the economic volatility of North Macedonia over the period 1998-2023. The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model that intends to assess the dynamics of economic volatility over economic growth. Economic volatility is measured as the standard deviation of GDP growth over a rolling window. The empirical results reveal that government budget balance, private sector credit, current account balance, money supply, and economic volatility significantly influence GDP growth, though with varying lag structures and directions. Notably, economic volatility stands out as a critical variable, while it may temporarily correspond with higher growth, its lagged effects are profoundly negative, showing the destabilizing consequences of persistent fluctuations. To mitigate volatility, the government needs to promote sound institutional frameworks, counter-cyclical policies, and structural reforms that enhance resistance to shocks.
23
E. OLUSUYI, AJAYI,, GIWA, B. AGBOLADE, OBAFEMI, T. OLUTOKUNBOH, ARAOYE, and F. EBUN. "IMPACT OF TAX STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA." International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Review 07, no. 03 (2024): 40–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.37602/ijssmr.2024.7303.
Full textAbstract:
This study examined the relationship among tax structure, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, this study investigated the impact of tax structure on economic growth in Nigeria. Secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Federal Inland Revenue Services and WDI were used. The main explanatory variables are the tax structure variables which include personal income tax (PIT), value added tax (VAT), company income tax (CIT) and petroleum profit tax (PPT), while the dependent variable is economic growth. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Bound tests, and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were adopted. The results revealed that personal income tax and value added tax have significant negative effects on economic growth, but company income tax and petroleum profit tax have significant positive effect on economic growth. Also, the lagged value of personal income tax has a significant effect on economic growth. In same manner, the lagged value of value added tax has significant negative effect on economic growth. Therefore, the study concluded that tax structure significantly impacts on poverty and economic growth in Nigeria.
24
Bashier, Al-Abdulrazag. "The Impact of Remittances on the Import Demand Function in Jordan: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 14, no. 10 (2018): 304. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2018.v14n10p304.
Full textAbstract:
The present study investigates the short- and long-run relationships between Jordan’s aggregate import demand function and its macroeconomic determinants, in addition to remittances. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model to estimate the import function over the period 1975–2016. The preliminary statistical tests, the ADF test, confirmed that none of the variables is integrated of order 2, while the bounds testing provided evidence of the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the included variables. Moreover, the diagnostic tests showed that the estimated model is free of the statistical problems. The long-run results indicated that remittances, inflation rate, and investment have a direct relationship with imports, whereas the import price index and FDI have a negative relationship. Based on these results, the study suggests that policymakers implement inflation reduction policies, increase the level of economic activities, and promote remittances inflows since they are mostly directed to investment.
25
Vicente, E. Montano. "Is There a High Rice Price Volatility in the Philippines: Insights from Bayesian Seasonal Autoregressive Distributed Lag (BARDL)." Journal of Economics, Finance And Management Studies 08, no. 01 (2025): 435–48. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14695968.
Full textAbstract:
This paper analyzes the high volatility in rice prices in the Philippine market from October 1994 to April 2024 using a Bayesian seasonal autoregressive distributed lag (BARDL) model with three lags. Using a dataset of 160 observations, this model controls for lagged prices and seasonal effects that showed significant persistence in rice prices through the first lag, market corrections through the second lag, and minimal impacts from seasonality. Model diagnostics, including WAIC and LOOIC, indicate the model's goodness but show considerable unseen variability σ, and external factors seem to be prevailing. The findings thereby emphasize the failure of using market mechanisms to stabilize prices and the crucial need for strategic government interferences. It discusses market failure effects, the pendulum approach to economic policy, and welfare economics, urging for a balanced approach that combines market intervention with more supportive policies toward farmers to stabilize the rice market.
26
SALIU, ADEJARE Rauff Ph.D, and Odeniyi Ph.D OLUWAYEMISI. "Foreign and Domestic Agricultural Capital Investments and Agricultural Development Nexus in Nigeria." FUO-Journal of Educational Research 4, no. 2 (2025): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14885721.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractNigeria's agriculture industry, despite abundant resources, is contributing less to the economy due to challenges faced by traditional and smallholder farmers. Specifically, this study compares the effect of foreign and domestic agricultural capital investments on agricultural development in Nigeria. This study therefore employed annual secondary data covering 1980–2023, in Nigeria. This study’s adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model technique to identify the relationship. The findings of the first objective of remittance inflows (REMIT) revealed a positive but statistically insignificant (t = 0.4466, p > 0.05) relation with agricultural development in Nigeria. Net Official Development Assistance Received (ODA) established a negative and statistically insignificant relationship (t = -0.2038, p > 0.05) with agricultural development in Nigeria. The second objective results showed that agricultural research and development was negative but statistically significant links was established with agricultural development (t = -1.9883, p < 0.05; agricultural subsidy (AGSUB) revealed positive and statistically significant links with agricultural development (t = 2.4707, p < 0.05); the finding of fertilizer input (FERT) and ratio of irrigated land to total land (IRRIG) are both negative and statistically significant, and rural development result is positive but statistically insignificant related to agricultural development in Nigeria. The study therefore concluded that agricultural development could only be improved if agricultural capital investments are increased and its implementation is monitored in Nigeria.
27
Kavila, W., and P. Le Roux. "Inflation dynamics in a dollarised economy: The case of Zimbabwe." Southern African Business Review 20, no. 1 (2019): 94–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.25159/1998-8125/6045.
Full textAbstract:
This paper explores the dynamics of inflation in the dollarised Zimbabwean economy using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with monthly data from 2009:1 to 2012:12. The main determinants of inflation were found to be the US dollar/South African rand exchange rate, international oil prices, lagged Zimbabwean inflation rate and South African inflation rate. During the local currency era, inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe were explained by excess growth in money supply, changes in import and administered prices, unit labour costs and output (Chhibber, Cottani, Firuzabadi & Walton 1989). According to Makochekanwa (2007), hyperinflation during the same era was attributed to excess money supply growth, lagged inflation and political factors. Coorey, Clausen, Funke, Munoz & Ould-Abdallah (2007) affirmed these findings by identifying excess money supply growth as a source of high inflation in Zimbabwe during the local currency era. In essence, the findings of this study point to a shift in inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe. This shift in inflation dynamics means that policies, which were used to respond to both internal and external shocks that have an impact on price formation, might not be applicable in a dollarised economy.
28
Ogboani, Henry Oluchukwu, Chinekwu Doris Chikezie-Aga, and Oliver Ike Inyiama,. "The Effects of Manufacturing Sector Output on Environmental Sustainability in Nigeria from 1990 to 2019." European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research 11, no. 1 (2023): 86–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.37745/ejaafr.2013/vol11n18697.
Full textAbstract:
The study examined the effects of manufacturing sector output on environmental sustainability in Nigeria from 1990 to 2019. The variables used in the study are CO2 emissions as the dependent variable, and manufacturing sector output as the independent variable, with foreign direct investment, electricity production and population density applied as control variables. Co-integration tests indicated the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables of the study. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for regression analysis. The result of the regression analysis indicates that the second lagged period of CO2 emissions has a negative impact on CO2 emissions in the current period. Also, manufacturing output has an insignificant effect on the rate of carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria, both in the first and second lagged periods. However, electricity production has a significant effect on CO2 emissions in Nigeria. In addition, among the control variables of the study (FDI, PPD and EPD), foreign direct investment exhibits an insignificant effect on environmental sustainability in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government institutes and empowers environmental regulatory agencies that will help check environmentally harmful practices by manufacturing firms and industrial areas in the country.
29
Ashiru, Yusuff Olatunji. "Money Supply Movement and Food Inflation in Nigeria." Growth 9, no. 1 (2022): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.20448/growth.v9i1.3815.
Full textAbstract:
Among the major macroeconomic objectives of any nation is to ensure higher economic growth without significant and persistent upward trend in the general price level. No wonder monetary authorities do emphasis low inflation-output growth. In Nigeria, all efforts of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to achieve single digits inflation over the years have been abortive. Against this background, this paper examines the impact of money supply on food inflation in Nigeria using monthly data between 1996:01 and 2021:12. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test of unit root is to check the stationary of money supply growth and food inflation. Thereafter, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) model is specified in order to capture both contemporaneous and effects of money supply on food inflation and the model is estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation technique. The results reveal that money supply has contemporaneous effect on food inflation. No evidence of lagged effect is found. It is therefore concluded that controlling the growth in money supply is an effective measure to control food inflation.
30
Shahani, Rakesh, and Aayushi. "Exploring Dynamic Linkages Between Inward FDI and India’s Economic Growth." Jindal Journal of Business Research 8, no. 2 (2019): 109–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2278682119833194.
Full textAbstract:
The present study attempts to develop a co-integrating relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows into India and its economic growth for the calendar period 1986–2016 by taking log-transformed yearly data. The variables included in the study were per capita gross domestic product (GDP; as a measure of economic growth) and FDI net flows. Additional regressors as control variables include exports as a percentage of GDP (a proxy for trade openness) and call money rate (a proxy for financial variable). The methodology employed is autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds partial F-test. The results of the study show a positive co-integrating relation between FDI and GDP as given by computed F-value after controlling for other factors impacting growth. The long-run model also satisfied the necessary prerequisites of the model, such as variable stationarity, no serial correlation, and model stability. The lagged error correcting mechanism (ECM) was negative, stable, and significant; however, pace of adjustment was found to be at a slow rate of 7.6 percent per period (per annum).
31
Otieno, Benard. "An empirical analysis of the dynamics of tax revenue determinants in kenya: A longitudinal approach." i-manager's Journal on Economics & Commerce 4, no. 1 (2024): 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.26634/jecom.4.1.20946.
Full textAbstract:
The volatility of tax income poses a significant challenge for Sub-Saharan African countries, contributing to erratic public spending and hindering sustainable economic progress. Recent global economic crises have underscored the urgency for these nations to bolster local revenue sources and overcome structural barriers to economic development. This paper examines the factors influencing tax revenue in Kenya over 39 years, from 1984 to 2022. Utilizing data from various sources, including the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI), the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to distinguish long-run relationships from short-run dynamics due to the mixed order of integration among variables. The empirical model includes real GDP, agricultural gross value added, general government expenditure, inflation, consumer price, official development assistance, and industrial gross value added as key determinants. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-term equilibrium. The connection between the variables and the error correction model indicates a relatively quick adjustment process, with around 25% of disequilibrium corrected within a single period. Results from the long-run ARDL estimation suggest that agricultural value added significantly increases tax revenue. In contrast, variables such as GDP and government expenditure do not show a significant long-term effect. In the short run, the lagged tax-to-GDP ratio and GDP significantly impact tax revenue. These findings underscore the importance of agricultural productivity and provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance tax revenue in Kenya.
32
Ijirshar, Victor Ushahemba, Solomon Gbaka, and Vivian Mneuter Tar. "INSECURITY AND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IN NIGERIA." JCMM’s Kaleidoscope Journal of Management Research 1, no. 1 (2024): 76–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.62801/jkjmr-v1i1-13.
Full textAbstract:
The persistent issue of the insecurity menace has become a scholarly concern that propelled this study to examine the influence of insecurity on household welfare in Nigeria for the period 1986 to 2022 using the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model. Empirical findings reveal a significant and negative influence of insecurity on household consumption and income in Nigeria in the long run. The study concludes that insecurity detrimentally affects household welfare, prompting several recommendations. The study suggested comprehensive policies that are essential for addressing insecurity, emphasizing the imperative role of law enforcement and security forces. The study further suggested strengthening the national security infrastructure through technological advancements and interagency coordination and fostering resilience at the community level by supporting local security initiatives and collaboration with traditional leaders. The study also suggested the immediate implementation of social safety nets, including conditional cash transfers for vulnerable households, palliatives for affected areas, efficient food aid distribution, and the establishment of local police to eradicate insecurity.
33
Olusola, Olakunle, Chris Kalu, and Alexander Orji. "Trade Openness and Life Expectancy: Evidence from Nigeria." International Journal of Advanced Studies in Business Strategies and Management 11, no. 1 (2024): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.48028/iiprds/ijasbsm.v11.i1.01.
Full textAbstract:
The health sector in Nigeria is at risk following barriers to international trade, as trade across Nigeria and the rest of the world may not be sufficiently promoting health indicators in particular life expectancy. This paper examined the impact of trade openness on life expectancy in Nigeria from 1986 to 2023. This paper utilized the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) on trade openness, foreign direct investment, hospital infrastructure, electricity consumption and government health expenditure. From the result, it was showed that trade openness had a negative impact on life expectancy, while the three lagged value of foreign direct investment had a positive impact on infant mortality. As a way of policy implementation, the Government should create mechanisms to control the extent to which the economy is opened to the external world. This is because illicit and substandard health goods could be brough tinto the country which could have adverse and negative effect on the health come in the long run in Nigeria.
34
Gangopadhyay, Partha, and Baljeet Singh. "CFCs and Rising Global Temperature During 1969-1998: A Time Series Analysis." Modern Applied Science 11, no. 8 (2017): 68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/mas.v11n8p68.
Full textAbstract:
This paper seeks to assess if there is any evidence that Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have caused global warming during 1969 to 1998. The choice of the period of study is driven by the historical fact that the accumulation of CFCs in the atmosphere increased during this phase and the global temperature also registered steady increases. By exploiting a data set on accumulated CFCs along with changes in the global temperature we bring two new insights to the literature on global warming and CFCs: first and foremost, we introduce an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to capture the long-term relationship between CFCs and global warming. By doing this we establish that a statistically significant long-run relationship exists between CFCs and global warming. Secondly, we also establish that the nature of this relationship is rather counter-intuitive: the growth in the concentration of CFCs in the atmosphere, as our study finds, has reduced the increases in the global temperature during 1969 -1998. There is thus little empirical support that the CFCs are a source of global warming.
35
Mairafi, S., S. Amana, and A. Onyishi. "Impact of Power Sector Expenditures on Economic Growth in Nigeria." International Journal of Operational Research in Management, Social Sciences & Education 10, no. 1 (2024): 87–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.48028/iiprds/ijormsse.v10.i1.06.
Full textAbstract:
This study evaluated the impact of power sector expenditures on economic growth in Nigeria using a time series research design from 1986-2021. Secondary data were used and sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin December 2021. the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to determine the relationship and impact of power sector expenditures on economic growth in Nigeria. The ndings found that there is a long-run, short-run and signicant impact on power sector expenditure indicators especially the power sector capital expenditure in Nigeria and power sector recurrent expenditure in Nigeria. This depicts that power sector expenditure is advantageous to economic growth in Nigeria. In other words, the leading drivers of economic growth in Nigeria are power sector capital expenditure in Nigeria and power sector recurrent expenditure in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommended that the government should increase the power capital and recurrent expenditure through the annual budget in Nigeria to improve the quality and adequate supply of electricity and the level of economic growth and development in Nigeria.
36
Kadel, Dhaka Ram, and Pawan Kumar Patodiya. "Dynamic Relationship of the Stock Index with the Trading Volume of the Nepal Stock Exchange: An Empirical Analysis." Shanti Journal 3, no. 1-2 (2023): 47–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/shantij.v3i1-2.60799.
Full textAbstract:
Knowledge about the linkage between the volume and the index of the stock is crucial for market participants and investors to make informed decisions in trading and forecasting the stock market, as understanding this fundamental Linkage enhances investment decisions. This study relies on time series data to objectively explore the dynamic linkage between the index of the stock and the amount of trade on the Nepal Stock Exchange from mid December 2018 to mid-January 2023. The outcome of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model reflects a long- and short-term substantial positive association between the volume of the trade and returns from the stock in the current timeframe. This implies that a change in volume has both a long- and short-term, small but positive effect on the returns from the stock. Conversely, the lagged-period stock index negatively and significantly impacts the present index of the stock. However, the conclusions drawn from the Granger causality test demonstrate no Granger causation from the volume of the trade to return and vice versa, implying that both variables do not affect each other.
37
Okuduwor, Adibie, Mba-Oloi Obe-Nwaka, and Emmanuel Agbenyi. "Effects of Some Macro-Economic Variables on Agricultural Output: Implication for Food security in Nigeria (1980-2020)." AKSU Journal of Agricultural Economics Extension and Rural Development 6, no. 1 (2023): 27–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.61090/aksujaeerd.2023.004.
Full textAbstract:
The study explored the effects of some macroeconomic variables on agricultural sub-sector output: implication for food security in Nigeria (1981-2020). The study specifically looked at the effects of money supply, interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and government recurrent expenditure on agricultural output in Nigeria. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, index mundi and journals were used as sources for the annual time series data on the research variables for the period 1981–2019. The Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model was used in the study. The unit root test revealed in the pre-diagnostic tests that the variables were stationary at 1(0) and 1(1). The ARDL Bound test for co-integration revealed that the variables had long-run co-integrating relationship. Additionally, empirical findings indicated that, in the short run, exchange rate, government recurrent expenditure and money supply as macroeconomic variables affected agricultural output The study recommends that since the research showed that money supply had positive effect on agricultural output, government should inprove on money supply so as to enable farmers meet up their required purchases.
38
Raweh, Bassam Ali Ali, Cao Erbao, and Abdullah Aloqab. "Impact of Stock Market and Financial Development on Sustainable Development in Kuwait." CARC Research in Social Sciences 2, no. 1 (2023): 18–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.58329/criss.v2i1.20.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to investigate the impact of the stock market trade openness and financial development on sustainable development in Kuwait. The study employed quarterly time series for analysis and from 1993-2018, and selected variables are Sustainable development, Stock market, financial development, and trade openness. Sustainable development is treated as a dependent variable, while the others are independent variables. It is concluded that a long run association among the stock market, financial development, trade and sustainable development exists. Autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model is applied for long run and short run estimates. In long run stock market, trade openness and financial development are positive and significant factors of sustainable development, while in the short run, stock market is significant negative contributor to sustainable development. It is therefore recommended that efforts should be made to encourage the investor so that the stock market should grow in future. Similarly, efforts should be made to boost the financial and trade sector should that the country could grow economically, socially and environmentally.
39
Khaled Al-Habashneh, Abdallah, Ibrahim Naser Khatatbeh, and Khaled Mohammed Alzubi. "The impact of income diversification on the stability of listed Jordanian commercial banks during the COVID-19 pandemic." Banks and Bank Systems 18, no. 3 (2023): 35–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.04.
Full textAbstract:
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between income diversification and bank stability among Jordanian commercial banks listed on the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE), using a panel Autoregressive Distributed-Lagged Model (panel-ARDL) and quarterly data from 2015 to 2021. The findings demonstrate that during the COVID-19 period, a higher proportion of non-interest income, resulting from income diversification, enhances bank stability. However, considering the entire sample period, the results suggest a potential deterioration in bank stability when banks diversify towards non-interest income, aligning with the negative effect observed in the literature. Additionally, the study identifies factors such as bank size, liquidity, loan loss provisions, cost efficiency, and the deposit ratio, which influence bank stability. These findings hold significant implications for policymakers and banks in developing countries concerned about the impact of income diversification on bank stability. They also offer valuable insights to understanding the dynamics of income diversification and its implications for bank stability in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
40
Dickson, Vonke. "Implication of the Rising Debt Profile and Dwindling Revenue for Nigeria’s Public Health Expenditure." Journal of Economics and Policy Analysis 7, no. 1 (2022): 28–43. https://doi.org/10.52968/25744326.
Full textAbstract:
This study investigated the implication of rising government debt and dwindling government revenue for public health expenditure in Nigeria, which is the study’s main objective. The study employed quantitative method of analysis, using the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, as analytical technique. Aggregate government expenditure on health (proxy for public health expenditure) is the dependent variable, while debt, revenue and population (control variable) are the independent variables. Secondary data was used, sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and World Health Organisation (WHO). The main findings of the study are: the rising debt stock has negative, but insignificant impact on government health spending and aggregate government revenue’s impact on government health spending is positive, but insignificant also, while, population growth rate, has a negative and significant impact on government health expenditure. One of the key recommendations is that in order to protect health expenditure, Nigeria’s government at all levels should set borrowing rules (e.g. no borrowing unless in extreme circumstances such as recession, expected natural disaster etc.) if it must borrow and it should seriously avoid its debt turning into a burden.
41
Elian, Mohammad I., Nabeel Sawalha, and Ahmad Bani-Mustafa. "Revisiting the FDI–Growth Nexus: ARDL Bound Test for BRICS Standalone Economies." Modern Applied Science 14, no. 6 (2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/mas.v14n6p1.
Full textAbstract:
In this paper the author tests for the short-run dynamics and long-run cointegration relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) standalone economies controlling for real exchange rate, trade openness, and domestic investment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method of cointegration is used to test for the long-run relationship of our FDI time series model by investigating annual macroeconomic datasets for the years 1981 to 2018 (inclusive). Coupled with the ARDL, the error correction model is applied to test for the short-run dynamics, while the Toda Yamamoto test is used to examine the causality direction between the constructs of interest. The Breusch-Godfrey and Ljung-Box are used as diagnostic tests for the ARDL assumptions of normality, independency, and autocorrelation in residuals, while the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test is used to test for heteroscedasticity. According to the short-run estimates, all variables have a significant lagged impact on FDI inflows with slight differences among countries. As for the long run, estimates reveal a positive and significant impact of GDP on FDI inflows for Russia, India, China, and South Africa but a positive and insignificant relationship for Brazil. The long-run estimates for the controlling variables evidence varied results among the BRICS countries. In contrast to Brazil and Russia, the Toda Yamamoto causality test discloses a significant and unidirectional flow between the GDP growth and FDI inflows for India, China, and South Africa. The results have meaningful implications for policy reform structures, economic integration among economies, multinational firms, and portfolio managers.
42
Onour, Ibrahim A. "Effect of Carbon Dioxide Concentration on Cereal Yield in Sudan." Management and Economics Research Journal 5 (2019): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.18639/merj.2019.740622.
Full textAbstract:
To estimate the long-term effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission on cereal yield in Sudan, we employed an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bound test for cointegration analysis. The ARDL results reveal evidence of cointegration between the dependent variable (cereals yield) and two independent variables (CO2 emission) and agricultural GDP. The estimation results of the error correction model indicate that change in CO2 has a positive and significant impact on the cereal yield in the long and short terms, as 1% increase in CO2 leads to a cereal yield increase by 3% in the short term and by 0.7% in the long term. This result adds two important findings to the existing literature: First, the positive impact of CO2 on cereal yield in Sudan supports previous research findings in other countries of warm and arid climates. Second, the effect of CO2 on cereal yield differs from short to long term, as our finding indicates that CO2 has a greater positive effect in the short term compared to that in the long term, implying that the effect of CO2 on cereal yields is not linear, as commonly perceived, but it decreases as time duration extends to longer periods. This may be due to the CO2 effect on global warming that emanates from cumulative CO2 concentration, which leaves a disproportionate impact on crops over time.
43
Bwana, Kembo Mugisha. "Economic Performance in Tanzania: Role of Investments and Financial Development." International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics 11, no. 11 (2024): 1605–21. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14033398.
Full textAbstract:
The study investigates influence of investments and development of financial sector on performance of economy. Secondary data from the year 1997 to 2020 were used in the analysis. The analysis used bounds test for Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Model and Error correction model due to existence of co-integrating equations among variables in the long run. Findings indicate existence of co-integrating equations over the long run between the variables. Error correction term is -1.8080 with significant probability of 0.000 implying almost 1.81 percent of deviations between long run values and short run values are adjusted within a year. Findings also revealed that a percentage change in total deposits is associated with 2.13 percent increase in economic performance on average ceteris peribus at 5 percent level of significance. On the other hand, a percent change in capital formation is associated with 0.55 decline in economic performance on average ceteris peribus at 5 percent level of significance. In short run, financial development lagged by one and two years are significantly associated with regress in current year financial progress. As far as investment is concern, one year lagged value is associated with progress of current year investment. The study recommends that financial policies of the country should be crafted in a proactive way taking into consideration that previous years development initiatives in the sector may exhibit negative impact on the current year’s initiatives.
44
Hassan Samatar, Elmi. "The influence of climate change on crop production: Evidence from Somalia." Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology 8, no. 4 (2024): 1428–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.55214/25768484.v8i4.1627.
Full textAbstract:
The study examines the effect of climate change on crop production in Somalia for the period 1990 to 2022 obtained from the World Bank and FAOSTAT. Initial assessments were conducted on the data using various techniques, including the Correlation Matrix, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and Phillips-Perron unit root test. The findings from both the Bounds test and Johansen test demonstrate the existence of cointegration within the model. To estimate the parameter values of the regression model, three methods were employed: the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS). The study's results demonstrate a positive and significant influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on crop production. Specifically, the impact of FDI is found to be more pronounced in the long term compared to the short term. Similarly, the study finds that the harvested area and labor force have substantial positive impacts on crop production, both in the short run and long run. Based on the ARDL model results, the study finds that rainfall and temperature do not have a beneficial influence on crop production in both the short run and long run. This is becuase, Somalia is considered as one of the most susceptible countries to the effects of climate change globally. The paper advises Somalia's government to focus on developing heat-resistant crops to counter the opposing effects of temperature on crop production and ensure food security. It also requires a comprehensive agriculture funding-framework including emergency assistance.
45
Thapa, Krishna Bahadur, and Raja Ram Adhikari. "Dynamic Interactions Between Monetary Indicators and Stock Market Behavior in Nepal." Nepal Journal of Multidisciplinary Research 8, no. 3 (2025): 200–210. https://doi.org/10.3126/njmr.v8i3.80359.
Full textAbstract:
Background: The relationship between monetary indicators and equity market performance is a critical area of study, particularly in emerging economies like Nepal, where financial markets are still developing. Understanding how monetary variables influence the Nepal Stock Exchange Index (NEPSE) can provide key insights for investors, policymakers, and financial institutions. Objectives: This study aims to examine the dynamic short-run and long-run effects of monetary indicators—reserve money, deposits, liquidity, and lending interest rates—on NEPSE performance. It seeks to uncover the complex transmission mechanisms between monetary policy and stock market behavior in Nepal. Methods: A quantitative research design is employed, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on monthly data from 2005 to 2024. Stationarity tests confirm mixed-order integration of variables, validating the ARDL approach. The model assesses both immediate and lagged effects while ensuring robustness through diagnostic checks for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. Findings: The results reveal time-dependent effects—reserve money and deposits exhibit varying positive and negative impacts across different lags, reflecting delayed transmission mechanisms. Liquidity positively influences NEPSE at a three-month lag, while the lending interest rate has a consistent and significant negative effect. The model demonstrates strong diagnostic validity, supporting the reliability of the findings. Conclusion: The study underscores the importance of macroeconomic stability and well-timed policy interventions in fostering stock market growth. It provides empirical evidence on the nuanced relationship between monetary policy and equity markets in Nepal, offering actionable insights for stakeholders. Novelty: This research contributes to the limited literature on Nepal’s stock market by applying the ARDL framework to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics. Future studies could extend this work by incorporating nonlinear models or additional macroeconomic variables.
46
Oni, Oluwasola, and Oluwaseun Babatunde. "Energy consumption of manufacturing sector: a search for sustainable energy source in Nigeria." Caleb International Journal of Development Studies 06, no. 01 (2023): 116–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.26772/cijds-2023-06-01-08.
Full textAbstract:
Manufacturing companies in a bid to realize high-quality development, figure out how to make the most use of their materials and improve their operating processes in a sustainable way. With an emphasis on sustainable energy practices that lessen reliance on fossil fuels and cut CO2 emissions, this study examines the relationship between energy consumption, manufacturing output, and economic growth in Nigeria. The study examines the effects of natural gas, renewable biofuels, fuel oil, gas/diesel, gasoline, and electricity on manufacturing production using time series data covering 1990 to 2019. It employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimate technique. The short-run dynamics and long-run relationships are examined in the ARDL model. In the short-run motor gasoline, natural gas renewable biofuel, gas/diesel and fuel oil are economically and statistically significant both in the current year and up to the second lagged period. While the ARDL bound test reveals that there is cointegration among the variable in the long run. Renewable biofuels and fuel oil are the only variables that have a direct and statistically significant positive relationship with GDP manufacturing output. Therefore, increasing the use of these energy sources is likely to increase the output of GDP manufacturing in the long run. According to the Granger Causality Test, there is a bidirectional relationship between manufacturing output and both gasoline and renewable biofuel. In contrast, there is a Granger causality relationship between manufacturing output and gas/diesel and electricity. Furthermore, the test indicates that manufacturing GDP only has a Granger cause renewable biofuel. The findings show the individual effects of the renewable biofuel energy source and thus its importance viz-a-viz reduction of CO2 emissions, sustainability, sufficiency in capacity (in Nigeria context) can increased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) manufacturing output. It is therefore recommended that policymakers ensure a switch and make available renewable biofuel sources.
47
Bahar, Mohd Shahrin, Imbarine Bujang, and Abdul Aziz Karia. "Analysing the determinants of Malaysian crude palm oil prices in short – run and long-run: An ARDL approach." Journal of Emerging Economies and Islamic Research 11, no. 3 (2023): 80–93. https://doi.org/10.24191/jeeir.v11i3.24749.
Full textAbstract:
This research investigates the determinants of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices, focusing on the influence of selected independent variables using an advanced Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. CPO, known for its affordability and versatility compared to other vegetable oils, plays a pivotal role in the global economy. Despite its significance, the complexity of its pricing dynamics, which are influenced by multifaceted factors, has not been sufficiently addressed in the literature. This study aims to bridge the gap by examining both short-run and long-run relationships between selected independent variables and CPO prices, which include CPO exports, production levels, export tax, stock levels, weather conditions, population growth, economic growth, global consumption, and prices of other vegetable oils like soybean and sunflower, as well as the exchange rate and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Utilising monthly frequency data from January 2004 to December 2021, the research integrates these variables into an ARDL model to assess their impact on CPO prices in Malaysia. The analysis reveals that both immediate and lagged values of these variables significantly influence CPO prices in the short run. In the long run, key determinants such as CPO exports and production, economic indicators like the CPI, and the prices of competitive vegetable oils emerge as influential factors. The diagnostic tests confirm the model’s stability through the robustness check. The research contributes valuable insights into the intricate dynamics governing CPO pricing, guiding informed decision-making for policy makers and CPO stakeholders.
48
Fasoye, Kazeem, Abiodun Sunday Olayiwola, and Kehinde Elizabeth Joseph. "Impact of Domestic Industrial Output on Economic Growth in Nigeria." Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Administrative Sciences 2, no. 1 (2021): 57–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.47631/jareas.v2i1.177.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose: This paper examined the potential of domestic industrial output on economic growth in Nigeria. Approach/ Methodology/ Design: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model procedure was employed for data analysis. Findings: The results revealed that the contribution of the domestic industrial output to economic growth was appalling which was necessitated by the worrisome image of “Made-in-Nigeria” goods. It was also showed that the results that domestic industrial output and domestic savings have positive relationships with real gross domestic product (RGDP) in the long run. This implies that a rise in the level of each of domestic output and domestic savings necessitated an increase in real gross domestic product (RGDP). Practical Implication: The implication presented in this study is related to the concerned authorities. The results indicate the need for diverse domestic production in order to achieve a healthy competition in the industrial sector in the country. Originality/Value: The study innovates by employing various statistical tools for exploring the effect of domestic industrial output on economic growth. The significant contribution of this study is in identifying that domestic production in Nigeria has been lagged behind in terms of output performance in the economy.
49
SENAWI, NURUL FARHANA, and NOR FATIMAH CHE SULAIMAN. "THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON SELECTED SECTORS TOWARDS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MALAYSIA." Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Journal of Undergraduate Research 2, no. 3 (2020): 83–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.46754/umtjur.v2i3.169.
Full textAbstract:
Government expenditure plays an important role in the country’s economic growth. Budget allocations through the annual budget presented have their strategies to ensure that the allocated budget can improve the growth and development in Malaysia and also can be enjoyed by all Malaysian. The government’s expenditure has contributed to the expansion of this country’s development from various sectors. However, there are various problems involving government expenditure such as low level of health, homeless poor people, weak public transportation and illegal immigrants. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government expenditure on health, education, housing, transportation and defence sectors towards economic growth. The data used is secondary data from 1980-2017 for 38 years from the Department of Statistics, Malaysia and World Bank Data. The method used in this study is Descriptive Analysis and Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model (ARDL). The result showed that economic growth and government expenditure on health, education, transportation, and defence has a long-run relationship. Therefore, the government should increase more expenditure on crucial sectors such as education, transportation, defence and health that will strengthen economic growth in the long run.
50
Sookram, Sandra, Roger Hosein, Leera Boodram, and George Saridakis. "Determining Factors of FDI Flows to Selected Caribbean Countries." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15, no. 2 (2022): 48. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15020048.
Full textAbstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a vital ingredient in achieving sustained growth in the Caribbean region. However, FDI inflows have been affected by issues such as market factors, trade barriers, costs factors, investment climate, political and foreign exchange stability. To this end, this paper examines the factors affecting FDI flows into Caribbean countries. We argue that Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean (SIDSC) can be affected by issues such as their small market size, high cost of energy, proneness to exogenous shocks from commodity prices, natural disasters and climate change. A point to note is that countries in the Caribbean with natural resources are expected to have biased FDI inflows. Additionally, countries throughout the Caribbean have different economic and productive structures and unique issues that can affect them based on their individual characteristics. To this end, a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model is used to determine the factors affecting FDI inflows in the Caribbean over the period 2000 to 2019. The findings reveal that GDP growth, natural resource rents, gross capital formation and population growth are significant factors influencing growth in the Caribbean region.