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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Autoregressive vectors'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 26 July 2025

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1

Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Stefan. "Essays in network modelling." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/663096.

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This thesis consists of two chapters on time series modelling. The first chapter introduces a class of vector autoregressive (VAR) models with a community structure for large panels of time series. In the model, the series are parti-tioned into latent groups such that spillovers are stronger within groups than between them. We then propose an algorithm that uses the eigenvectors of a function of the estimated autoregressive matrices to recover the communities. We study the properties of the procedure and establish its consistency. The algorithm motivates us to suggest a regularised VAR estimato
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2

Smaniotto, Emanuelle Nava. "O impacto da oferta de crédito no investimento privado brasileiro." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2017. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/6340.

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Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2017-06-08T12:06:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Emanuelle Nava Smaniotto_.pdf: 445452 bytes, checksum: 5741b34057dbeb9c0f08c71040f4979b (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-08T12:06:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Emanuelle Nava Smaniotto_.pdf: 445452 bytes, checksum: 5741b34057dbeb9c0f08c71040f4979b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-24<br>Nenhuma<br>Este trabalho apresenta uma análise sobre o impacto da oferta de crédito no investimento privado no Brasil, entre 2001 e 2016. Para isso, é introduzida a metodologia de Mudança de Reg
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Ooms, M. "Empirical vector autoregressive modeling." [S.l. : Rotterdam : s.n.] ; Erasmus University [Host], 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/14163.

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4

Polito, Vito. "Vector autoregressive analysis of macroeconomic policy." Thesis, University of York, 2007. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/11068/.

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Brüggemann, Ralf. "Model reduction methods for vector autoregressive processes /." Berlin [u.a.] : Springer, 2004. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0818/2003067373-d.html.

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6

Sugita, Katsuhiro. "Bayesian analysis of cointegrated vector autoregressive models." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2004. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/66201/.

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This thesis concerns econometric time series modelling of cointegrated multivariate systems using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach has become increasingly attractive among researchers in the fields such as biology, though still only a relatively few econometricians use these techniques. Rather than theoretical aspects of Bayesian statistics or computational techniques, we illustrate how the Bayesian methods can be useful in analysing non-linear cointegration models. In the last ten years, non-linear time series models, such as regime switching models, have become popular among applie
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Feldkircher, Martin, and Florian Huber. "Adaptive Shrinkage in Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2016. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4933/1/wp221.pdf.

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Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are frequently used for forecasting and impulse response analysis. For both applications, shrinkage priors can help improving inference. In this paper we derive the shrinkage prior of Griffin et al. (2010) for the VAR case and its relevant conditional posterior distributions. This framework imposes a set of normally distributed priors on the autoregressive coefficients and the covariances of the VAR along with Gamma priors on a set of local and global prior scaling parameters. This prior setup is then generalized by introducing another layer of shrinkage wit
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8

Brännström, Tomas. "Bias approximation and reduction in vector autoregressive models /." Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics [Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.] (EFI), 1995. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/405.

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9

Brännström, Tomas. "Bias approximation and reduction in vector autoregressive models." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Ekonomisk Statistik (ES), 1995. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-878.

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In the last few decades, vector autoregressive (VAR) models have gained tremendous popularity as an all-purpose tool in econometrics and other disciplines. Some of their most prominent uses are for forecasting, causality tests, tests of economic theories, hypothesis-seeking, data characterisation, innovation accounting, policy analysis, and cointegration analysis. Their popularity appears to be attributable to their flexibility relative to other models rather than to their virtues per se. In addition, analysts often use VAR models as benchmark models. VAR modeling has not gone uncriticised, th
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10

Crespo, Cuaresma Jesus, Martin Feldkircher, and Florian Huber. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Bayesian Approach." Wiley, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.2504.

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This paper develops a Bayesian variant of global vector autoregressive (B-GVAR) models to forecast an international set of macroeconomic and financial variables. We propose a set of hierarchical priors and compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models in terms of point and density forecasts for one-quarter-ahead and four-quarter-ahead forecast horizons. We find that forecasts can be improved by employing a global framework and hierarchical priors which induce country-specific degrees of shrinkage on the coefficients of the GVAR model. Forecasts from various B-GVAR specifications tend to
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11

SANTOS, ALEXANDRE JOSE DOS. "TREE-STRUCTURE SMOOTH TRANSITION VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS – STVAR-TREE." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2009. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=15888@1.

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COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>Esta dissertação tem como objetivo principal introduzir uma formulação de modelo não-linear multivariado, a qual combina o modelo STVAR (Smooth Transition Vector Autoregressive) com a metodologia CART (Classification and Regression Tree) a fim de utilizá-lo para geração de cenários e de previsões. O modelo resultante é um Modelo Vetorial Auto-Regressivo com Transição Suave Estruturado por Árvores, denominado STVAR-Tree e tem como base o conceito de múltiplos regimes, definidos por árvore binária. A especificação do modelo é feita
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12

Schnücker, Annika [Verfasser]. "Model Selection Methods for Panel Vector Autoregressive Models / Annika Schnücker." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1176708147/34.

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13

Rudoy, Melanie Beth. "Multistage mean-variance portfolio selection in cointegrated vector autoregressive systems." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/46794.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2009.<br>This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 187-190).<br>The problem of portfolio choice is an example of sequential decision making under uncertainty. Investors must consider their attitudes towards risk and reward in face of an unknown future, in order to make complex financial choices. Often, mathematical models of investor prefer
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14

Camehl, Annika [Verfasser]. "Model Selection Methods for Panel Vector Autoregressive Models / Annika Schnücker." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1176708147/34.

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15

Dutta, Bordoloi Suwodi. "Interdependence of US Industry Sectors Using Vector Autoregression." Digital WPI, 2009. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1073.

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"In this study, we explore the interdependence among different US industries by examining their correlations of the stock portfolios. Furthermore, we focus on the dynamics of their interdependent relations during peaceful and volatile periods; as such relations may change due to different sensitivities of each industry to the macroeconomic conditions. More specifically, we apply Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology on the US industry portfolios and we use variance decomposition and generalized impulse response functions to identify the strength of the impact of each industry on the others.
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16

Netzén, Örn Marcel. "Governance and Economic Growth : - A Vector Autoregressive approach on the Frontiermarket." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-144502.

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Economic growth is a hot topic among economists around the world. The last century many parts of the world have faced an acceleration in the economic growth. However, that is not the case for all countries and today there is a large economic gap between the rich and poor countries. But why have some parts of the world succeeded to create economic growth while others do not? The purpose of this study is to create a deeper understanding of the mechanism between economic growth and governance in the frontier market. To do this, a Vector autoregressive time series model will be used. The frontier
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17

Braun, Robin [Verfasser]. "Three Essays on Identification in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models / Robin Braun." Konstanz : KOPS Universität Konstanz, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1191693473/34.

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18

Jeon, Kyung-Seong. "An examination of stock market properties : vector autoregression approach /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9841304.

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19

Cao, Z. "Modelling economic interdependencies of international tourism demand : the global vector autoregressive approach." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2016. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/810483/.

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Tourism demand is one of the major areas of tourism economics research. The current research studies the interdependencies of international tourism demand across 24 major countries around the world. To this end, it proposes to develop a tourism demand model using an innovative approach, called the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. While existing tourism demand models are successful in measuring the causal effects of economic variables on tourism demand for a single origin-destination pair, they tend to miss the spillover effects onto other countries. In the era of globalisation, touri
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Sjödin, Wågberg Anton. "Prices on electricity and the prices on stocks : -A Vector autoregressive approach." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-153448.

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This study will investigate if a relationship exists between the price of electricity and the Swedish stock market. This study will also try to investigate what consequences an increase in the price of electricity will have on the return of the Swedish stock market. Economic theory and earlier literature will then be used to try to explain the results obtained in this study. The results from the tests performed in this study imply that a one-way Granger-causality exists between the prices on electricity and the price on the OMX 30. The impulse response functions performed shows that a positive
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21

Degerli, Mecit Mert. "Fault detection of bearings based on AutoRegressive modelling and Support Vector Machine classification." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2020.

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Bearings are the common mechanical components and they have an authentic role generally in every kind of machines or applications. Therefore it becomes more and more important to understand properly the behaviour and the nature of the bearing and also their working conditions. For this reason, the data from the components on the machine as bearings in the modern industry; the importance of reducing machine downtime and machine costs, increasing machine performance and achieving a more stable operation is increasing day by day. For that purpose, different solutions have been provided to detect
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22

Horton, Wendy Elizabeth. "A vector autoregressive model of a regional Phillips curve in the United States." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/30515.

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23

Bwire, Thomas. "Aid, fiscal policy and macroeconomy of Uganda : a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) approach." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2012. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12918/.

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While confronting the question of aid effectiveness, an important issue (but often ignored) in the context of a developing country like Uganda is which GDP measure would be most reliable as this is crucial for measuring the macroeconomic impact of aid. The most commonly used GDP measure in the aid-growth literature is typically from World Development Indicators (WDI) or Penn World Tables (PWT) (being considered the most reliable or the easiest to obtain). However, disparities in GDP from alternative sources are common and in practice one has different estimates of the level, change and growth
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24

Bertsche, Dominik [Verfasser]. "Three Essays on Identification and Dimension Reduction in Vector Autoregressive Models / Dominik Bertsche." Konstanz : KOPS Universität Konstanz, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1209879778/34.

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25

Lim, Néhémy. "Estimation de modèles autorégressifs vectoriels à noyaux à valeur opérateur : Application à l'inférence de réseaux." Thesis, Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015EVRY0007/document.

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Dans l’analyse des séries temporelles multivariées, la plupart des modèles existants sont utilisés à des fins de prévision, c’est-à-dire pour estimer les valeurs futures du système étudié à partir d’un historique de valeurs observées dans le passé. Une autre tâche consiste à extraire des causalités entre les variables d’un système dynamique. C’est pour ce dernier problème à visée explicative que nous développons une série d’outils. À cette fin, nous définissons dans cette thèse une nouvelle famille de modèles autorégressifs vectoriels non paramétriques construits à partir de noyaux à valeur op
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Semião, Patrícia Margarida Floro. "Efeitos macroeconómicos do investimento público central e local: uma comparação internacional." Master's thesis, ISEG, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21971.

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Mestrado em Economia.<br>O investimento público tem sido alvo de interesse por parte das investigações económicas mais recentes, enquanto uma variável que pode fomentar o crescimento económico. Através da observação dos seus impactos na economia, consegue-se compreender se os esforços empreendidos no investimento público são eventualmente produtivos. Este estudo pretende analisar essa produtividade, medindo os efeitos do investimento público no PIB, no investimento privado e no emprego, no longo prazo. A especificidade do exposto neste trabalho consiste numa desagregação diferente do investim
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Unosson, Måns. "A Mixed Frequency Steady-State Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Forecasting the Macroeconomy." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-297406.

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This thesis suggests a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model which allows for explicit parametrization of the unconditional mean for data measured at different frequencies, without the need to aggregate data to the lowest common frequency. Using a normal prior for the steady-state and a normal-inverse Wishart prior for the dynamics and error covariance, a Gibbs sampler is proposed to sample the posterior distribution. A forecast study is performed using monthly and quarterly data for the US macroeconomy between 1964 and 2008. The proposed model is compared to a steady-state Bayesian VAR m
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Zhang, Wei. "A sensitivity study on identification schemes of the structural vector autoregression /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3025669.

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Lee, Joo Young, and Youn Mi Lee. "Dynamic Impact of Aging on Income Inequality in the U.S. with Vector Autoregressive Model." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2020. https://dc.etsu.edu/secfr-conf/2020/schedule/57.

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Income inequality has been showing a steady increase for past decades and will be worsened in the future (Piketty, 2014). One of the most important factors to explain the worsening income inequality can be aging. Previous studies on aging focus on its impact on traditional issues such as health, retirement, and economic growth. This study finds the direct relationship between aging and income inequality using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model (Blanchard and Quah, 1989). The VAR model is useful to analyze the long-run response of aging on income inequality. The empirical results will verify
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Serpeka, Rokas. "Analyzing and modelling exchange rate data using VAR framework." Thesis, KTH, Matematik (Inst.), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-94180.

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Abstract   In this report analysis of foreign exchange rates time series are performed. First, triangular arbitrage is detected and eliminated from data series using linear algebra tools. Then Vector Autoregressive processes are calibrated and used to replicate dynamics of exchange rates as well as to forecast time series. Finally, optimal portfolio of currencies with minimal Expected Shortfall is formed using one time period ahead forecasts
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Tutar, Eser. "Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries and Its Applicability to the Turkish Economy." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/34288.

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Inflation targeting is a monetary policy regime, characterized by public announcement of official target ranges or quantitative targets for price level increases and by explicit acknowledgement that low inflation is the most crucial long-run objective of the monetary authorities. There are three prerequisites for inflation targeting: 1)central bank independence,2)having a sole target,3)existence of stable and predictable relationship between monetary policy instruments and inflation.In many developing countries, the use of seigniorage revenues as an important source of financing public debts,
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Oliveira, Jorge Manuel Caetano de. "Significado do 1º pilar da política monetária do Eurosistema." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/3582.

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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira<br>O presente estudo tem como objectivo fundamental investigar qual o significado do papel atribuído pelo Banco Central Europeu (BCE) ao agregado monetário largo M3 na condução da política monetária na zona euro. Partindo de um breve enquadramento teórico quanto ao papel atribuído pelo BCE à moeda, procede-se a uma análise empírica, baseada em vectores autoregressivos (usando essencialmente as variáveis macroeconómicas: taxa de crescimento do M3, hiato do M3 em termos reais, taxa de inflação e hiato do produto), no sentido de detectar evidência empír
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Kobler, Alexander. "Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland : evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach /." Bern ; Berlin ; Bruxelles [etc.] : P. Lang, 2000. http://aleph.unisg.ch/hsgscan/hm00001729.pdf.

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34

Podstawski, Maximilian [Verfasser]. "Unconventional Identification in Vector Autoregressive Models: Empirical Essays on Credit, Risk and Uncertainty / Maximilian Podstawski". Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1113593113/34.

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35

Crespo, Cuaresma Jesus, Gernot Doppelhofer, Martin Feldkircher, and Florian Huber. "Spillovers from US monetary policy: Evidence from a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive model." Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Statistical Society, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12439.

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The paper develops a global vector auto-regressive model with time varying pa- rameters and stochastic volatility to analyse whether international spillovers of US monetary policy have changed over time. The model proposed enables us to assess whether coefficients evolve gradually over time or are better characterized by infrequent, but large, breaks. Our find- ings point towards pronounced changes in the international transmission of US monetary policy throughout the sample period, especially so for the reaction of international output, equity prices and exchange rates against the US do
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Petrov, Krassimir M. "Forecasting the dairy price complex : an application of Bayesian Vector autoregression modelling /." The Ohio State University, 2000. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1488193272066522.

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Fernandes, Pedro Manuel Ribeiro. "The role of banks in economic growth : an empirical application to Portugal." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/19408.

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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira<br>Esta dissertação avalia o contributo dos bancos para o crescimento económico em Portugal desde a adopção do Euro, usando testes de cointegração e causalidade, bem como funções de resposta a impulsos. Usando rácios de passivos líquidos (depósitos) dos bancos e empréstimos em percentagem do PIB nominal como medidas do desenvolvimento financeiro, encontramos forte evidência de que o crescimento económico exerce um impacto positivo no desenvolvimento financeiro, de acordo com Demetriades e Hussein (1996). Concluiu-se também que os empréstimos bancário
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Bergqvist, Martin. "Dynamics in the rural housing markets : A Vector Autoregressive approach to the ripple effect in Sweden." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-124800.

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This thesis examines the “ripple effect” and its presence on a regional level within Swedish counties. This effect implies that central housing markets “lead” the fluctuations in prices, and other local markets follow with a time lag. Vector auto regressive methods are used to capture the effects of real house price changes on single-family houses during the years 1984 to 2014, within Sweden’s large and sparsely populated counties. The results confirms the presence of this effect between Stockholm and regional capitals, but cannot confirm that this effect continuous from regional capitals to t
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Jordanov, Jordan V. "The size anomaly in the London Stock Exchange : an empirical investigation." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1998. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7067.

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This study tests the size effect in the London Stock Exchange, using data for all nonfinancial listed firms from January 1985 to December 1995. The initial tests indicate that average stock returns are negatively related to firm size and that small firm portfolios earn returns in excess of the market risk. Further, the study tests whether the size effect is a proxy for variables such as the Book-to- Market Value and the Borrowing Ratio, as well as the impact of the dividend and the Bid- Ask spread on the return of the extreme size portfolios. The originality of this study is in the application
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White, Alexander B. "Pre- and post-retirement asset allocation: a simulation of retirement investment strategies for agricultural producers." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/38097.

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This research simulates pre-retirement investment scenarios for agricultural producers. Thirty-two investment scenarios are examined, with each scenario differing with respect to retirement vehicle, investment strategy of the producer, and the use of a cash margin for reinvestment in the operation versus prepaying term debt (cash preference). The retirement vehicles included in this study are Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), Simplified Employee Pension Plans (SEPs), and 401(k) plans. Investment strategies reflect the producer's preference for investing in conservative, balanced, or aggre
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Karl, Velander, and Callerud Karin. "The development of the financialsystem and economic growth in Sweden : A Granger causality analysis." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Handelshögskolan (from 2013), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-78703.

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Ma, Nicholas. "Stationary time series resulting from certain positive definite kernels and simulation via high-order vector autoregressive models." Thesis, Wichita State University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10057/6826.

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Vector auto-regressive models have traditionally been used to model and forecast multivariate time series data, predicting future values based on previous observations. In this thesis, we introduce some multivariate time series with power-law decaying covariance matrix functions, and then construct a VAR model in order to generate approximate data from that time series. A fast model is developed to solve for the VAR(p) coefficients, implementing a block-Toeplitz equation solver to enable the choice of large p, avoiding the memory and speed issues with solving large systems via Gaussian elimina
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Netzén, Örn Marcel. "Negative Interest Rate & the Level of Household Debt : A Vector Autoregressive approach in a European perspective." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-132005.

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Ever since the big recession of the world economy 2007, the central banks in Europe have struggled to regain financial stability. Their goals have been hard to reach and 2014 The European Central bank (ECB) introduced negative interest rates for the first time in the world history. However, today, year 2016, many countries still have not been able to reach their inflation target. During this time with expansive monetary policies, many European Union (EU) members have faced rising level of household debts to GDP. This study focus on EU-members and uses a Vector Autoregressive method, Granger c
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Wang, Jiayue. "Essays on oil price shocks and financial markets." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/6412.

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This thesis is composed of three chapters, which can be read independently. The first chapter investigates how oil price volatility affects the investment decisions for a panel of Japanese firms. The model is estimated using a system generalized method of moments technique for panel data. The results are presented to show that there is a U-shaped relationship between oil price volatility and Japanese firm investment. The results from subsamples of these data indicate that this U-shaped relationship is more significant for oil-intensive firms and small firms. The second chapter aims to examine
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Dashti, Hossein, Antonio J. Conejo, Ruiwei Jiang, and Jianhui Wang. "Weekly Two-Stage Robust Generation Scheduling for Hydrothermal Power Systems." IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/622668.

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As compared to short-term forecasting (e.g., 1 day), it is often challenging to accurately forecast the volume of precipitation in a medium-term horizon (e.g., 1 week). As a result, fluctuations in water inflow can trigger generation shortage and electricity price spikes in a power system with major or predominant hydro resources. In this paper, we study a two-stage robust scheduling approach for a hydrothermal power system. We consider water inflow uncertainty and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to represent its seasonality and accordingly construct an uncertainty set in the robust
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Sharp, Gary David. "Lag length selection for vector error correction models." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002808.

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This thesis investigates the problem of model identification in a Vector Autoregressive framework. The study reviews the existing research, conducts an extensive simulation based analysis of thirteen information theoretic criterion (IC), one of which is a novel derivation. The simulation exercise considers the evaluation of seven alternative error restricted vector autoregressive models with four different lag lengths. Alternative sample sizes and parameterisations are also evaluated and compared to results in the existing literature. The results of the comparative analysis provide strong supp
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Wong, Kin-man, and 黃健文. "A vector autoregression (VAR) model of housing starts and housing price in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/194603.

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It is observed that there are many different models about housing price. Yet, this is relatively smaller number of studies about housing starts. This thesis is an empirical study to work out the relationship between housing starts, housing price and other economic and policy instrumental factors. To achieve this objective, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model is built since there is inter-relationship between housing starts and housing price. By applying previous models filled with the research gaps, a new VAR model about the housing starts and housing price in Hong Kong is built. Four hypot
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48

Cheong, Onn Kee. "A Study of the Interdependence of Four Major Stock Markets Using a Vector Autoregression." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1989. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc500682/.

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The question for this thesis is whether the four major stock markets--the United States, Great Britain, West Germany, and Japan are interdependent or segmented. The study period runs from February 1979 to June 1987, with the Wall Street Journal as a source of data. The Granger causality test is used to test for relationships among the four major stock markets. The thesis is divided into five chapters-- 1) statement of the problem; 2) survey of literature; 3) methodology; 4) results and 5) conclusions. The overall findings of this thesis indicate that there are few or no comovement similarities
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49

Louw, Riëtte. "Forecasting tourism demand for South Africa / Louw R." Thesis, North-West University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/7607.

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Tourism is currently the third largest industry within South Africa. Many African countries, including South Africa, have the potential to achieve increased economic growth and development with the aid of the tourism sector. As tourism is a great earner of foreign exchange and also creates employment opportunities, especially low–skilled employment, it is identified as a sector that can aid developing countries to increase economic growth and development. Accurate forecasting of tourism demand is important due to the perishable nature of tourism products and services. Little research on foreca
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Afonso, Ana Catarina Leitão. "Bond fund runs: The financial crisis case." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/11686.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics<br>This paper studies the monthly flows of bond fund geographically focused on Europe and on the United States in the period between 2002 and 2012, with special attention to the effect of the financial crisis of 2008. Through the usage of the panel quantile regression model, this study aims to identify which funds, in terms of their characteristics, are more likely to suffer a run. The main finding is that the impact of the characteristics of fund
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