Relevant bibliographies by topics / Backcasting

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Backcasting'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 25 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Backcasting"

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Thorén, Kent, and Martin Vendel. "Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges." Journal of Strategy and Management 12, no. 2 (2019): 298–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-10-2017-0072.

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Purpose Backcasting helps managers involve and align the organization throughout a strategy process. Its core idea is creating a logical path from a depicted future back to the present, to share, analyze and manage strategic challenges. Still its use in strategic management is under-researched. The purpose of this paper is to verify the relevance and validity of backcasting as a strategic management tool. It also analyzes and structures knowledge about backcasting and its practical application in strategic management. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs desktop research method to ou
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Camilleri, Rosalie, Maria Attard, and Robin Hickman. "Participatory Policy Packaging for Transport Backcasting: A Pathway for Reducing CO2 Emissions from Transport in Malta." Sustainability 16, no. 1 (2024): 430. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16010430.

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Significant emission reductions are needed in the transport sector to reach climate change mitigation objectives. Backcasting, a type of scenario-analysis approach, is a useful tool for the analysis of possible alternative transport futures and strategies to arrive at these futures when the business-as-usual projection is no longer sustainable. The backcasting approach consists of establishing desirable futures and examining the pathways by which those futures can be reached. This paper focuses on the policy packaging phase of a transport backcasting study carried out in the context of Malta a
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Korhonen, Jouni, and Birk Granberg. "Sweden Backcasting, Now?—Strategic Planning for Covid-19 Mitigation in a Liberal Democracy." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (2020): 4138. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12104138.

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Sweden is applying the herd-immunity as its main natural science strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has been communicated in a transparent manner. Small groups of young(er) people of up to approximately 50 individuals are subject to a bigger risk of infection than others. The objective of this paper is to make a case for the argument, that alongside herd-immunity, Sweden is using the social science originated planning approach: backcasting. The government has not been transparent on backcasting. The authors present the use of backcasting only as an argument based on available data
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Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the future." International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education 2, no. 1 (2001): 63–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/1467630110380307.

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Dreborg, Karl H. "Essence of backcasting." Futures 28, no. 9 (1996): 813–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(96)00044-4.

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Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the Future." IFAC Proceedings Volumes 33, no. 12 (2000): 285–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1474-6670(17)37328-7.

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Schippl, Jens, and I. Leisner. "Backcasting in Transport." TATuP - Zeitschrift für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis 18, no. 2 (2009): 63–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.14512/tatup.18.2.63.

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Bengston, David N., Lynne M. Westphal, and Michael J. Dockry. "Back from the Future: The Backcasting Wheel for Mapping a Pathway to a Preferred Future." World Futures Review 12, no. 3 (2020): 270–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1946756720929724.

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Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present, identifying actions over time needed to achieve the preferred future. But there are few specifics in the Backcasting literature on how to develop the pathway that connects a preferred future to the present. This article describes a participatory process for Backcasting that uses a structure similar to the Futures Wheel to develop the pathway from the preferred future back to the present. A case study of U.S. Forest Service organizational planning is used to illustrate the method.
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Voevodkina, A. Yu, A. S. Nazarov, E. A. Oleynik, and A. Yu Orlov. "Traumatic radial neuropathy: backcasting." Russian Neurosurgical Journal named after Professor A. L. Polenov 16, no. 2 (2024): 112–18. https://doi.org/10.56618/2071-2693_2024_16_2_112.

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INTRODUCTION. Traumatic radial neuropathy is not only an urgent problem of modern neurosurgery, but also cause serious socio-economic damage, as they lead to the disability of the working-age population. To this day, there are no generally accepted diagnostic algorithm and treatment of radial nerve injury.AIM. To identify the reasons for the lack of effectiveness of primary diagnosis and treatment of radial nerve injuries in injuries of the upper extremities. To optimize the tactics of primary diagnosis and timely treatment of traumatic neuropathy of the radial nerve.MATERIALS AND METHODS. Bac
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Guillen Mandujano, Georgina, Jaco Quist, and Juho Hamari. "Gamification of backcasting for sustainability: The development of the gameful backcasting framework (GAMEBACK)." Journal of Cleaner Production 302 (June 2021): 126609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126609.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Backcasting"

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Manero, Ruz Alejandro. "Our Future Destinations: Backcasting for Sustainable Tourism." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-353535.

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The tourism industry has continuously grown in the last fifty years, promoted economic growth and created jobs (UNWTO, 2017). Nevertheless, this industry is impacting and greatly stressing natural environments and societies inciting a transformation towards a more sustainable form of tourism practices (Williams & Ponsford, 2009). The United Nations General Assembly declared 2017 as the International Year of Sustainable Tourism for Development (UNWTO, 2016). The purpose of the declaration was to position the tourism industry as a tool to address the Universal 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Dev
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Angelstam, Mikael. "A Future in Sustainable Development : Backcasting the SDGs." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211256.

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In 2015 the 17 Sustainable Development Goals were adopted by 193 member states of the United Nations. The SDGs are highly ambitious and their underlying processes are interconnected by causal relationships. Work towards fulfilling them therefore requires considering how solutions for one goal will impacts others. In this study target-oriented backcasting is applied to examine set goals in the future, as well as to determine the current state and trends of development. This is done in an effort to determine conflicts between targets and resource limitations of future development. The findings s
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Åkerman, Jonas. "Transport systems meeting long-term climate targets : A backcasting approach." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-29712.

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Future transport systems consistent with long-term climate targets are examined in this thesis, using a systems perspective covering the entire transport system. Aviation is given particular attention, as expansion of this mode is difficult to reconcile with climate targets. The aim is to provide scientific decision support for current transport policy-making, especi-ally regarding structures with high inertia, e.g. urban structure, roads, railways, fuel produc-tion systems and vehicle fleets. An additional aim is to widen the perception of possible transport futures consistent with meeting cl
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Lee, P. N. "Sustainable urban transport in Kuala Lumpur : a backcasting scenario approach." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2005. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1444947/.

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Urban transport trends and issues in Kuala Lumpur have indicated that they are moving away from sustainability. Besides the conventional problems such as congestion, accidents, urban air pollution, there are signs showing mat social inequality and institutional problems are confronting the transport system in Kuala Lumpur. The above issues are not the natural outcome of development instead, they are related to specific social, economic and political policies. In view of the complexity and the great number of uncertainties, a backcasting scenario methodology has been adopted in this study to an
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Suwa, Aki. "Soft energy paths in Japan : the backcasting approach to energy planning." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2005. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1446820/.

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Climate change is increasingly recognised as a serious threat to the global ecosystem. The international framework, such as the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change provides a main mechanism to harness world-wide commitment for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, to cope with the climate change. Japan is one of the countries which are required to reduce significant amounts of GHG emissions, including C02. The Japanese energy policy is rather fragmented and ineffective in coping with the global climate challenge, and often highly controversial options have been included.
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Wangel, Josefin. "Making Futures : On Targets, Measures and Governance in Backcasting and Planning." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-94151.

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This thesis is about the making of futures – in the sense of planning, through which the world of tomorrow is crafted, and in the sense of images of the future, developed through the futures studies approach of backcasting. The point of departure for the thesis is that more visionary and strategic forms of planning are needed if the challenges of sustainable development are to be met, and that backcasting, through its long-term, integrative and normative character, can be a helpful tool towards this end. The thesis explores how backcasting can be used when planning for sustainability by lookin
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Fahlberg, Kristin. "Stockholms Energiframtid : En backcastingstudie för ett fossilbränslefritt Stockholms län 2050." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-62469.

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This study concerns the energy future of the county of Stockholm up until 2050 and describes how the energy consumption can be compared to today with the use of scenario methodology. Within energy future studies the backcasting approach is well known and has been put to use in this study. Due to the characteristics of backcasting the study is self-fulfilling, i.e. the future energy scenarios presented in this study satisfy the targets set up in this study. In the light of what may be the largest challenge of our time – the climate change - the aim of this study is to describe how the energy co
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Cuginotti, Augusto, Karen Marie Miller, and Freek van der Pluijm. "Design and Decision Making : Backcasting using principles to implement cradle-to-cradle." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3501.

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Human society is currently designed based on linear patterns, without concern for and interactions with the biosphere. The natural world works in cycles, and in order to interact with these systems in a sustainable way, the redesign of human society according to the paradigm of cyclical thinking is required. This paper explores the synthesis and synergies between the cradle-to-cradle concept and a Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development in the context of sustainable development. The research tests whether Backcasting using Sustainability Principles is supportive to the implementation o
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Höjer, Mattias. "What is the Point of IT? : Backcasting urban transport and land-use futures." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastruktur och samhällsplanering, 2000. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3016.

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Sustainable development, future studies, informationtechnology, urban land-use and passenger transport. These arethe five concepts upon which this thesis and the eight papersit contains are based. The thesis includes both a developmentof future studies methodology, especially with regard tobackcasting, and analyses of the relationship betweensustainable development, information technology, transport andland-use in future cities Paper I (Gudmundsson&Höjer, 1996) suggests foursustainable development principles and discusses theimplications of these four principles for the transportsystem. Pa
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Isaksson, Sarah. "När målet inte är förhandlingsbart : Stadsplanering i centrala Nacka år 2030 med backcasting." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-124531.

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Låt oss anta att Nacka kommun, företag och medborgare i samverkan ser den nya tunnelbanesträckningen till Nacka centrum som en möjlighet att skapa de ”trendbrott” i dagens utveckling som behövs för att stödja att centrala Nacka uppfyller sin del av tvågradersmålet till 2050. Studien använder sig av den normativa scenariotekniken backcasting och utgår från ovanstående antagande för att skapa ett scenario för 2030. Scenariot illustrerar en metod för hur planerare, politiker och andra aktörer kan samverka för att bidra till en hållbar stadsutveckling. Scenariot har tagits fram med hjälp av en wor
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Books on the topic "Backcasting"

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Quist, Jaco. Backcasting for a sustainable future: The impact after 10 years. Eburon, 2006.

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Quist, Jaco. Backcasting for a sustainable future: The impact after 10 years. Eburon, 2007.

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1951-, Biesiot Wouter, ed. Transition to a sustainable society: A backcasting approach to modelling energy and ecology. E. Elgar, 1998.

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Hunhammar, Sven. Exploring sustainable development with backcasting. 1999.

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Mulder, Henk A. J., and Wouter Biesiot. Transition to a Sustainable Society: A Backcasting Approach to Modelling Energy and Ecology. Elgar Publishing Limited, Edward, 1998.

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Book chapters on the topic "Backcasting"

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Ishida, Emile H., and Ryuzo Furukawa. "Forecasting and Backcasting." In Nature Technology. Springer Japan, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54613-9_5.

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Gramelsberger, Gabriele. "Backcasting. Prototyping Future Ontologies by Backward Chaining Possible Futures." In Modelling the Energy Transition. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69031-0_10.

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Abstract The use of computational models has undergone some dramatic epistemic shifts. Originally conceived for heuristic purposes, modelling has become a core epistemic technology for prediction. However, currently, we observe a shift from the predictive use of models to an instructive one, in particular in the field of policy making, and this shift comes along with the turn from forecasting to backcasting. While forecasting poses “what will happen?”-questions, backcasting asks questions in the form of “if we want to achieve a particular goal, what actions must we take to get there?” It is th
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Ishida, Emile H., and Ryuzo Furukawa. "Lifestyles Envisioned with Backcasting." In Nature Technology. Springer Japan, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54613-9_6.

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Löchtefeld, Stefan. "Backcasting – Ein Instrument zur Zukunftsgestaltung." In Werkstattbuch Familienzentrum. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-91640-8_9.

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Schuck, Sandy, Peter Aubusson, Kevin Burden, and Sue Brindley. "Backcasting Mathematics Teaching: Preservice Teachers’ Voices." In Uncertainty in Teacher Education Futures. Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8246-7_13.

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Quist, Jaco. "Backcasting and Scenarios for Sustainable Technology Development." In Handbook of Sustainable Engineering. Springer Netherlands, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8939-8_52.

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MacTaggart, Tim. "Backcasting of the electricity industry from 2040." In The Corporation of the Future. Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003183679-8.

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Schuck, Sandy, Peter Aubusson, Kevin Burden, and Sue Brindley. "Backcasting: Testing the Feasibility of Alternative Futures." In Uncertainty in Teacher Education Futures. Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8246-7_8.

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Kishita, Yusuke. "Backcasting for Envisioning Sustainable Futures Across Multiple Generations." In Economics, Law, and Institutions in Asia Pacific. Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5407-0_4.

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van der Pluijm, Freek, Karen Marie Miller, and Augusto Cuginotti. "Backcasting Using Principles for Implementing Cradle-to-Cradle." In Facilitating Sustainable Innovation through Collaboration. Springer Netherlands, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3159-4_11.

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Conference papers on the topic "Backcasting"

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Nagayama, Shota, Toshihiko Sasaki, and Akihito Soeda. "Backcasting Perspectives on Services of Future Quantum Internet." In 2024 IEEE International Conference on Quantum Software (QSW). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/qsw62656.2024.00015.

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Shibata, Koki, Hiroshi Horiguchi, Chihiro Matsui, and Ken Takeuchi. "Automated Recipe Creation & Verification of Single Wafer Wet Etching: Ensemble Learning with Backcasting & Forecasting AIs using Scarce Data." In 2024 IEEE Silicon Nanoelectronics Workshop (SNW). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/snw63608.2024.10639220.

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Uhl, Johannes H., Martino Pesaresi, Katarzyna Krasnodębska, Lewis Dijkstra, Daniele Ehrlich, and Thomas Kemper. "Towards Large-scale Backcasting of Urban Built-up Surface Estimates to 1950 by Integrating Earth Observation Data and Multimodal Geospatial Data." In 2025 Joint Urban Remote Sensing Event (JURSE). IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/jurse60372.2025.11075982.

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Willett, Rebecca, Aline Martin, and Robert Nowak. "Backcasting." In the third international symposium. ACM Press, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/984622.984641.

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Köves, Alexandra, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs. "Backcasting for Sustainable Employment." In The 2nd World Sustainability Forum. MDPI, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/wsf2-00992.

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Koenig, Reinhard, and Gerhard Schmitt. "Backcasting and a New Way of Command in Computational Design." In CAADence in Architecture. Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Architecture, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3311/caadence.1692.

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Amadi-Echendu, Joe, Pavlen Govender, and Magretha Vlok. "Technology backcasting: Retrospective case studies from mining and mineral processing." In 2022 IEEE 28th International Conference on Engineering, Technology and Innovation (ICE/ITMC) & 31st International Association For Management of Technology (IAMOT) Joint Conference. IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ice/itmc-iamot55089.2022.10033167.

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Tomić, Lidija, Anja Stamenić, Sanja Steiner, and Olja Čokorilo. "UAV in smart cities – integration in the aviation system and solutions for safe operations." In INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ADVANCES IN TRAFFIC AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES. University of Sarajevo - Faculty of Traffic and Communications, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.59478/atct.2023.1.

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UAVs have a wide range of applications that can contribute greatly to the development of smart cities, as their usage can be cost-effective, available on demand, and environmentally-friendly. However, several challenges and issues such as safety, privacy, and security arise. Mentioned opportunities and challenges are identified in the paper by performing a backcasting approach method. To achieve UAV benefits, appropriate solutions for UAV’s safe integration into the aviation system are needed. The main paper’s objective is to provide, based on an analysis of UAV’s possible applications and req
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Mizuno, Yuji, Yusuke Kishita, Haruna Wada, Kazuhiro Kobayashi, Shinichi Fukushige, and Yasushi Umeda. "Proposal of Design Support Method of Sustainability Scenarios in Backcasting Manner." In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2012-70850.

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Describing sustainability scenarios is a hopeful approach for envisioning sustainable future visions of industries. However, describing sustainability scenarios is a difficult task and there is no computational support method. This article proposes a design support method of sustainability scenarios in a backcasting manner, which means thinking backward from targeted futures. For the design support method, we propose the following two methods; (i) a method for supporting backward thinking and constructing future visions using a logic tree and (ii) a method for drawing transition paths based on
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Ilstedt, Sara, and Josefin Wangel. "Altering expectations: how design fictions and backcasting can leverage sustainable lifestyles." In Design's Big Debates - DRS International Conference 2014. Design Research Society, 2014. https://doi.org/10.21606/drs.2014.123.

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Reports on the topic "Backcasting"

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Schreuer, Anna, ed. Towards a Sustainable Spatial Organization of the Energy System: Backcasting Experiences from Austria. Self, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1553/ita-pa-pw-mo-12-1.

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Coyle, William, Mark Gehlhar, Thomas Hertel, Zhi Wang, and Wusheng Yu. Understanding the Determinants of structural Change in World Food Markets. GTAP Working Paper, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/gtap.wp02.

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This study assesses the interaction between climate change and agricultural trade policies. We distinguish between two dimensions of agricultural trade policy: market insulation and subsidy levels. Building on the previous work of Tsigas, Frisvold and Kuhn (1997) we find that, in the presence of current levels of agricultural subsidies, increased price transmission --as called for under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture-- reduces global welfare in the wake of climate change. This is due to the positive correlation between productivity changes and current levels of agricultural support
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