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Journal articles on the topic 'Backcasting'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 25 July 2025

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1

Thorén, Kent, and Martin Vendel. "Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges." Journal of Strategy and Management 12, no. 2 (2019): 298–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-10-2017-0072.

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Purpose Backcasting helps managers involve and align the organization throughout a strategy process. Its core idea is creating a logical path from a depicted future back to the present, to share, analyze and manage strategic challenges. Still its use in strategic management is under-researched. The purpose of this paper is to verify the relevance and validity of backcasting as a strategic management tool. It also analyzes and structures knowledge about backcasting and its practical application in strategic management. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs desktop research method to ou
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2

Camilleri, Rosalie, Maria Attard, and Robin Hickman. "Participatory Policy Packaging for Transport Backcasting: A Pathway for Reducing CO2 Emissions from Transport in Malta." Sustainability 16, no. 1 (2024): 430. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16010430.

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Significant emission reductions are needed in the transport sector to reach climate change mitigation objectives. Backcasting, a type of scenario-analysis approach, is a useful tool for the analysis of possible alternative transport futures and strategies to arrive at these futures when the business-as-usual projection is no longer sustainable. The backcasting approach consists of establishing desirable futures and examining the pathways by which those futures can be reached. This paper focuses on the policy packaging phase of a transport backcasting study carried out in the context of Malta a
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Korhonen, Jouni, and Birk Granberg. "Sweden Backcasting, Now?—Strategic Planning for Covid-19 Mitigation in a Liberal Democracy." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (2020): 4138. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12104138.

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Sweden is applying the herd-immunity as its main natural science strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has been communicated in a transparent manner. Small groups of young(er) people of up to approximately 50 individuals are subject to a bigger risk of infection than others. The objective of this paper is to make a case for the argument, that alongside herd-immunity, Sweden is using the social science originated planning approach: backcasting. The government has not been transparent on backcasting. The authors present the use of backcasting only as an argument based on available data
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4

Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the future." International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education 2, no. 1 (2001): 63–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/1467630110380307.

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5

Dreborg, Karl H. "Essence of backcasting." Futures 28, no. 9 (1996): 813–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(96)00044-4.

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Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the Future." IFAC Proceedings Volumes 33, no. 12 (2000): 285–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1474-6670(17)37328-7.

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7

Schippl, Jens, and I. Leisner. "Backcasting in Transport." TATuP - Zeitschrift für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis 18, no. 2 (2009): 63–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.14512/tatup.18.2.63.

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8

Bengston, David N., Lynne M. Westphal, and Michael J. Dockry. "Back from the Future: The Backcasting Wheel for Mapping a Pathway to a Preferred Future." World Futures Review 12, no. 3 (2020): 270–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1946756720929724.

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Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present, identifying actions over time needed to achieve the preferred future. But there are few specifics in the Backcasting literature on how to develop the pathway that connects a preferred future to the present. This article describes a participatory process for Backcasting that uses a structure similar to the Futures Wheel to develop the pathway from the preferred future back to the present. A case study of U.S. Forest Service organizational planning is used to illustrate the method.
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Voevodkina, A. Yu, A. S. Nazarov, E. A. Oleynik, and A. Yu Orlov. "Traumatic radial neuropathy: backcasting." Russian Neurosurgical Journal named after Professor A. L. Polenov 16, no. 2 (2024): 112–18. https://doi.org/10.56618/2071-2693_2024_16_2_112.

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INTRODUCTION. Traumatic radial neuropathy is not only an urgent problem of modern neurosurgery, but also cause serious socio-economic damage, as they lead to the disability of the working-age population. To this day, there are no generally accepted diagnostic algorithm and treatment of radial nerve injury.AIM. To identify the reasons for the lack of effectiveness of primary diagnosis and treatment of radial nerve injuries in injuries of the upper extremities. To optimize the tactics of primary diagnosis and timely treatment of traumatic neuropathy of the radial nerve.MATERIALS AND METHODS. Bac
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10

Guillen Mandujano, Georgina, Jaco Quist, and Juho Hamari. "Gamification of backcasting for sustainability: The development of the gameful backcasting framework (GAMEBACK)." Journal of Cleaner Production 302 (June 2021): 126609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126609.

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11

Achuenu, Ache Stella, and G.U. Ayuba Ijeoma. "Evaluating the Role of e-Backcasting in Enhancing Social Learning for Sustainable City Development: A Case Study of Abuja, FCT." International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology (IJISRT) 9, no. 12 (2024): 839–42. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14546768.

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The growing complexity of urban planning challenges in Nigerian cities necessitates participatory and adaptive approaches to achieving sustainability. This study evaluates the effectiveness of e-backcasting as a tool for enhancing social learning among diverse stakeholders in Abuja, Nigeria. Using a prototype participatory valuation approach, 239 participants aged 18 to 68 engaged in online deliberative processes via social media platforms such as Facebook, WhatsApp, blogs, and emails. The findings revealed that participants experienced significant improvements in critical thinking, collaborat
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Sisto, Roberta, Edgardo Sica, and Giulio Mario Cappelletti. "Drafting the Strategy for Sustainability in Universities: A Backcasting Approach." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (2020): 4288. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12104288.

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The contribution of universities to the sustainability challenge is nowadays crucial due to their role as centers of learning, innovation and research. However, universities can deal with sustainability matters in many different ways which should be accurately identified in their strategies. In this context, the present paper has tested the suitability of backcasting as a participatory approach to involve stakeholders in discussing the most effective actions to improve sustainability within universities’ strategic plan. The experiment—carried out at University of Foggia (UniFg-Italy)—has demon
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13

Barrella, Elise, and Adjo A. Amekudzi. "Backcasting for Sustainable Transportation Planning." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2242, no. 1 (2011): 29–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2242-04.

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14

Jablonowski, Mark. "Avoiding Risk Dilemmas Using Backcasting." Risk Management 9, no. 2 (2007): 118–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250026.

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15

Matos, Sónia, Ana Moura Arroz, Bruna Martins, Isabel R. Amorim, and Rosalina Gabriel. "Backcasting for Youths: Hypothetical and Critical Thinking in the Context of Sustainable Development Education." Sustainability 16, no. 24 (2024): 11088. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411088.

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The growing interest in innovative pedagogies within education for sustainable development (ESD) calls for a renewed set of pedagogical practices. In responding to this challenge, this article draws on backcasting, a future studies method, to support education for ESD competencies among youths. It presents the design, trial, and results of one intervention designed to test the method in the context of secondary education, employing design thinking as an overarching methodology. Using a qualitative descriptive-interpretative approach with a thematic analysis to examine empirical data obtained f
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16

Cinq-Mars, J., and E. Wiken. "Using science, technology and innovation in support of conserving Canada's ecosystems and habitats." Forestry Chronicle 78, no. 1 (2002): 133–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc78133-1.

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Visions are strong drivers for developing science, technology and innovation. At a time when several signs are indicating a deteriorating global environment, developing a vision for conserving Canada's ecosystem services is timely. Instead of forecasting, backcasting is the approach recommended to facilitate the implementation of the conservation vision. It would include as one of its main components habitat conservation. Recommendations to achieve habitat conservation are provided. With a supporting policy framework, a conservation vision would be a strong incentive for developing science, te
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17

Espinoza-Molina, Fabricio Esteban, Juan Diego Valladolid, Pablo Barbecho Bautista, et al. "Backcasting Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Implementation: A Systematic Review." World Electric Vehicle Journal 15, no. 9 (2024): 393. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/wevj15090393.

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The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to drastically change society, planning, design, and development strategies. This study uses the PRISMA protocol to carry out a systematic literature review, focusing on the backcasting method as an analytic tool. By examining. 21 studies published between 2003 and 2024, this paper highlights the phases of backcasting: visioning, policy packaging, and appraisal, and identifies critical factors necessary for the successful integration of AVs. Visioning for future driverless cities includes high-quality urban areas, active mobility,
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18

Wieners, Eva, Martina Neuburger, and Udo Schickhoff. "Adaptability of Backcasting for Sustainable Development." International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management 6, no. 3 (2015): 16–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijabim.2015070102.

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To cope with problems like climate change, lack of food security, and poverty, a more reasonable use of existing resources is needed. Hence, a transition towards a sustainable behavior in the industrial as well as the developing countries is of core importance. Transition management and backcasting are two methodologies that have been developed mainly in the Netherlands to achieve this behavioral change. This paper examines in a case study, in a small village in the mid-hills of Nepal, whether these methodologies are also applicable in a developing country. Moreover it analyzes which adjustmen
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19

Höjer, Mattias, and Lars-Göran Mattsson. "Determinism and backcasting in future studies." Futures 32, no. 7 (2000): 613–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00012-4.

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20

Robinson, J. "Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning." Futures 35, no. 8 (2003): 839–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00039-9.

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21

Nikolakis, William. "Participatory backcasting: Building pathways towards reconciliation?" Futures 122 (September 2020): 102603. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102603.

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22

Giurco, Damien, Brett Cohen, Edward Langham, and Matthew Warnken. "Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 5 (2011): 797–818. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.004.

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23

Holmberg, J., and K. H. Robert. "Backcasting — a framework for strategic planning." International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 7, no. 4 (2000): 291–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504500009470049.

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24

Jablonowski, Mark. "Erratum: Avoiding Risk Dilemmas Using Backcasting." Risk Management 9, no. 3 (2007): 207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250033.

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25

Robèrt, Markus. "Backcasting and econometrics for sustainable planning." Journal of Cleaner Production 13, no. 8 (2005): 841–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2003.12.028.

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26

Corrigan and Nieuwenhuis. "Evaluating Goal Programming as a Backcasting Tool to Assess the Impact of Local Stakeholder Determined Policies on the Future Provision of Ecosystem Services in Forested Landscapes." Forests 10, no. 5 (2019): 386. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10050386.

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Forest management in Ireland has traditionally focused on timber production and policies have been implemented with this in mind. Since the mid-1990s, the focus is transitioning from timber production to a more multifunctional forest management approach following the principles of sustainable forest management. A method known as “backcasting” has the potential to include local stakeholders into land-use and policy planning. Two case study areas were chosen to investigate the potential of backcasting for integrated forest landscape planning in Ireland: Western Peatlands and Newmarket. Potential
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27

Camilleri, Rosalie, Maria Attard, and Robin Hickman. "Future Low-Carbon Transport Scenarios: Practice Theory-Based Visioning for Backcasting Studies." Sustainability 14, no. 1 (2021): 74. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14010074.

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Backcasting is a well-established methodology particularly suitable for analyzing complex problems where the business-as-usual projection is no longer appropriate, which can be used to effectively address the challenges of climate change mitigation in transport. It is characterised by designing endpoints in the future and working backward from these visions to establish policy pathways that can achieve desired futures. The visioning phase, which involves the construction of a set of scenarios describing alternative futures, is the first phase in backcasting, and engaging different stakeholders
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28

Aitken, Rob, Leah Watkins, and Sophie Kemp. "Envisioning a sustainable consumption future." Young Consumers 20, no. 4 (2019): 299–313. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/yc-12-2018-0905.

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to understand what a sustainable future would look like and the nature of the changes needed to achieve it. Continued reliance on economic growth to meet the demands of a growing population is unsustainable and comes at an unacceptable social and environmental cost. Given these increasing demands, radical changes to present practices of production and consumption are needed to enable a sustainable future. Design/methodology/approach To address this the projective technique of backcasting was used in a pilot study to explore student visions of a sustainable
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29

Ristolainen, Mari. "Role of Techno-Economic Coalitions in Future Cyberspace Governance: 'Backcasting' as a Method for Strategic Foresight." European Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security 22, no. 1 (2023): 395–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.34190/eccws.22.1.1078.

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In an increasingly complex threat landscape, many nations struggle with developing and implementing effective cybersecurity policies for cyberspace governance at a national and international level. Balancing between the demands for establishing national sovereignty and strengthening international collaboration in cyberspace have become a problematic assignment. Collaborating with nations supporting extensively dissimilar ideologies and cybersecurity policies is controversial. Yet, it is almost impossible for a single country to achieve 'self-sufficiency' in cyberspace. Thus, in order to remain
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30

Biel, Robert. "Visioning a Sustainable Energy Future: The Case of Urban Food-Growing." Theory, Culture & Society 31, no. 5 (2014): 183–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0263276414536624.

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This article outlines a future where society re-energizes itself, in the sense both of recapturing creative dynamism and of applying creativity to meeting physical energy needs. Both require us to embrace self-organizing properties, whether in nature or society. The author critically appraises backcasting as a methodology for visioning, arguing that backcasting’s potential for radical, outside-the-box thinking is restricted unless it contemplates a break with class society, connects with existing grassroots struggles (notably over land) and dialogues with the utopian socialist tradition. The a
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Köves, Alexandra, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs. "Backcasting for Sustainable Employment: A Hungarian Experience." Sustainability 5, no. 7 (2013): 2991–3005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su5072991.

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32

Soria-Lara, Julio A., and David Banister. "Collaborative backcasting for transport policy scenario building." Futures 95 (January 2018): 11–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.003.

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33

Kishita, Yusuke, Benjamin C. McLellan, Damien Giurco, Kazumasu Aoki, Go Yoshizawa, and Itsuki C. Handoh. "Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 124 (November 2017): 114–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.001.

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34

Timilsina, Raja R., Yoshinori Nakagawa, and Koji Kotani. "Exploring the Possibility of Linking and Incorporating Future Design in Backcasting and Scenario Planning." Sustainability 12, no. 23 (2020): 9907. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12239907.

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There are two approaches to future planning: backcasting and scenario planning. While some studies have attempted to relate and combine these two approaches, a future design (FD) approach has recently been advocated and researched. Given this state of affairs, the paper provides an overview of the FD approach and discusses the potential benefits of linking and incorporating it into backcasting and scenario planning by summarizing the main features of such benefits for future planning for sustainability. A feature of an FD is that it explicitly orients people’s ways of thinking in the current g
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35

Jones, Keith, Api Desai, Mark Mulville, and Aled Jones. "Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach." Facilities 33, no. 11/12 (2015): 701–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/f-11-2014-0090.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this appr
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36

Dervishi, Albion. "A deep learning backcasting approach to the electrolyte, metabolite, and acid-base parameters that predict risk in ICU patients." PLOS ONE 15, no. 12 (2020): e0242878. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242878.

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Background A powerful risk model allows clinicians, at the bedside, to ensure the early identification of and decision-making for patients showing signs of developing physiological instability during treatment. The aim of this study was to enhance the identification of patients at risk for deterioration through an accurate model using electrolyte, metabolite, and acid-base parameters near the end of patients’ intensive care unit (ICU) stays. Methods This retrospective study included 5157 adult patients during the last 72 hours of their ICU stays. The patients from the MIMIC-III database who ha
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Köves, Alexandra, and Gábor Király. "A fenntarthatósági átmenet kihasználatlan erőforrásai Egy marketingiparági backcasting folyamat tanulságai." Vezetéstudomány / Budapest Management Review 53, no. 2 (2022): 2–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.14267/veztud.2022.02.01.

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Napjainkban egyre nagyobb hangsúlyt kap a társadalmi és ökológiai transzformáció szükségessége, amelyben fontos szerep hárul a különböző iparágak szereplőire. 2018-ban egy részvételi backcasting projekt során a legnagyobb magyarországi marketingkommunikációs ügynökségben dolgozók arra kaptak felhatalmazást, hogy képzeljék el a szakmájuk jövőjét. A backcasting egy olyan szcenárióépítési folyamat, amely egy elképzelt pozitív jövőképből indul ki. Keretezés nélkül a munkatársak arra koncentráltak, hogy milyen szerepet tölthetne be a marketing egy
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38

Schulz, Christopher J., and Gary W. Childers. "Estimating changes in river faecal coliform loading using nonparametric multiplicative regression." Journal of Water and Health 9, no. 1 (2011): 117–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wh.2011.042.

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Faecal coliform (FC) concentration was monitored weekly in the Tangipahoa River over an eight year period. Available USGS discharge and precipitation data were used to construct a nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) model for both forecasting and backcasting of FC density. NPMR backcasting and forecasting of FC allowed for estimation of concentration for any flow regime. During this study a remediation effort was undertaken to improve disinfection systems of contributing municipal waste water treatment plants in the watershed. Time-series analysis of FC concentrations demonstrated a
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MacIsaac, Hugh J., Julianna V. M. Borbely, Jim R. Muirhead, and Phil A. Graniero. "BACKCASTING AND FORECASTING BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS OF INLAND LAKES." Ecological Applications 14, no. 3 (2004): 773–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/02-5377.

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40

Heinonen, Sirkka, and Ville Lauttamäki. "Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions." Foresight 14, no. 4 (2012): 304–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636681211256099.

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41

Davies, Anna R., and Ruth Doyle. "Transforming Household Consumption: From Backcasting to HomeLabs Experiments." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 105, no. 2 (2015): 425–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2014.1000948.

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42

Dortmans, Peter J. "Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps." Futures 37, no. 4 (2005): 273–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2004.07.003.

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43

Huntington, Hillard G. "Backcasting U.S. oil demand over a turbulent decade." Energy Policy 39, no. 9 (2011): 5674–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.076.

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44

Vergragt, Philip J., and Jaco Quist. "Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 5 (2011): 747–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.010.

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45

Bloomfield, Brian P. "Anomalies and Social Experience: Backcasting with Simulation Models." Social Studies of Science 15, no. 4 (1985): 631–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030631285015004003.

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46

Saghafian, Bahram, Sara Ghasemi Aghbalaghi, and Mohsen Nasseri. "Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 132, no. 3-4 (2017): 717–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2113-x.

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47

Brooks, David B. "Energy Use in Canada: View from the Soft Path." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 6, no. 1 (1988): 17–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459878800600103.

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This paper focuses on changing energy use and changing analysis of energy use in Canada from the point of view of policy analysis. End-use efficiency for energy has been improving in Canada, though by less than in other countries. However, conventional forecasts of energy use tend to ignore the implications of those gains, and they are therefore either misleading or unduly constraining for purposes of policy development. An alternative approach, which uses a method of analysis called backcasting rather than forecasting, is preferable for policy purposes. A backcasting analysis for Canada shows
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Mutaqin, Enjang, Yogi Suprayogi Sugandi, and Ramadhan Pancasilawan. "Analysis of the Formulation of Preparatory Regions Based on Regulation Number 23 Year 2014 in West Java Province." Journal La Sociale 6, no. 3 (2025): 751–61. https://doi.org/10.37899/journal-la-sociale.v6i3.1997.

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This research analyzed the formulation of regional preparation in West Java Province based on regulation no. 23/2014 using the backcasting method. This research purposed to evaluate the extent to which stakeholders' actions align with legal requirements in preparation for the formation of new regions. Using a qualitative descriptive approach, data was collected through in-depth stakeholder interviews and document analysis. The backcasting method was applied to identify the future vision, current conditions, and priorities needed to achieve the goals. Based on the findings, the proposed nine pr
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Masayuki, KANZAKI. "Utilizing Backcasting and Life Cycle Thinking in Sustainable Management." Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan 16, no. 3 (2020): 182–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3370/lca.16.182.

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50

Paehlke, Robert. "Backcasting as a policy tool: the role of values." Critical Policy Studies 6, no. 3 (2012): 337–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19460171.2012.704975.

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