Academic literature on the topic 'Banks and banking – Zambia'

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of monetary policy on the lending behaviour of commercial banks in Zambia using bank-level data. Design/methodology/approach – Dynamic panel data econometric analysis is used to uncover the evidence of monetary transmission mechanism in Zambian banking industry. Other specifications are used as robustness checks. Findings – Contrary to received evidence, the authors find that the bank lending channel in Zambia operates mainly through large banks. The effect of monetary policy on medium-sized banks is moderate while it is virtually non-existent for smaller banks. Furthermore, the data does not show evidence of relationship lending for smaller banks. Originality/value – Overall, the findings of this investigation suggest that price signals, rather than quantity aggregates, matter the most in the transmission of monetary policy in Zambia. The results therefore lend support to the central bank’s recent shift in monetary policy framework from using monetary aggregates to interest rate targeting as a means to strengthen effectiveness of monetary policy.

Multi-banking among bank account holders is a trend that has been on the rise in the recent past. Even though most banks provide similar services, like money transfer, deposits, loans, safety vault keeping, insurance and other services, it is seen that consumers have preference to certain specific banks. The purpose of this study was to assess the lived experiences of multi-banked bank account holders at Manda Hill Mall Lusaka, Zambia. Data was generated from seven purposively sampled multi-banked account holders using; in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, informal discussions and observations. Factors that emerged contributing to multi-banking among account holders were fraternity, proximity, customer service, security and brand loyalty. The study concluded that most of the factors that influence multi-banking involve the attitude of the account holders, fraternity inclinations, security constraints and poor customer services. Thus, it is recommend that account holders and would be account holders should be accorded chance to be well informed and make independent decisions as to which bank to bank with. In addition, Banks need to improve their service provision and strengthen relationships with their customers. Further, there is need for the banks to keep moving with time and improving their brand to appealing international standards. Above all, there is need to enhance security to the satisfaction of the clients.

E-banking has become one of the most popular methods that has experienced considerably great attention in the financial services studies in the last few years. E-banking enables customers of the bank to conduct a range of financial services via the internet portal. It provides a solution in driving formal banking services uptake in the most cost-effective way, it has great benefits to both the customers as well as the banks i.e. convenience, cost reduction, ease and is an effective marketing tool. This research was conducted to determine the underlying factors that drive the adoption of e-banking services based on the UTAUT model and to recommend solutions that will address the identified underlying factors. A baseline study involving 313 respondents was undertaken with the sample consisting of Clients from the top five (5) banks in Zambia with the best digital capabilities. Questionnaires were administered to these Clients through purposive sampling to get information on their views on Internet banking services. Data was analysed using SPSS descriptive analysis. The results of the study revealed that the UTAUT factors; performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), facilitating conditions (FC) and behaviour intention (BI) have a significant impact in the adoption of e-banking services. Social influence (SI) was non-significant to the user’s intention to adopt e banking services.

The fast growing level of competitiveness and fundamental amendments in the world of business especially in the banking sector nowadays are pushing firms and for that matter banks to implement a customer-based strategy, which proves the importance of customer experience monitoring constructs such as customer experience and satisfaction, quality of service, and customer loyalty in explaining a bank’s performance. Consequently, this study seeks to develop and empirically test customer experience monitory and evaluation and also to study the influences of service quality, customer satisfaction, and customer loyalty in the Zambian banking industry. A survey was conducted with banking customers on many validated questions, based on which we got 107 valid responses. The data was processed to produce the valuable results and Quantitative Data Analysis (QDA), via simple regression analysis and ANOVA. The findings and analysis of data shows that quality of service provided and customer satisfaction are important when monitoring the experience of customers based on the effects of quality of service and customer loyalty and there returns thereafter. Based on the data analyzed, the study concluded that customer experience has positive impact on customer loyalty and banks must ensure that their customer walk out with good experience by monitoring this periodically to adapt or adjust to current trends. The study also observed a significant relationship between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. The theoretical and managerial implications of the study confirmed the theoretical framework. Consequently, the following recommendations were contrived: staffs of financial institutions should create a friendly environment with their customers. The Bank’s environment should be conducive, attractive, decent and enabling enough to psychologically assure their customer of the best of service. Also, there should be a routine high quality of service delivered to customers and their views sorted routinely. This may help boost and also add to the value of experience of customers, thus their total satisfaction on the Bank’s service.

Foreign diversification offers prospective market opportunities which afford firms prospects for greater growth and penetration of global markets. This study investigated the effect of foreign diversification on performance of quoted deposit money banks in selected Sub-Sahara African countries; Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Zambia. The study employs secondary data collected and computed from sampled deposit money banks annual audited financial statements. Employing the use of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, panel unit root analysis, co-integration test, multivariate panel data analysis and the system- GMM for a period of 2007 – 2017, the data were estimated with the aid of Eviews 9.0 econometric statistical package. Using dependent variables (Net interest margin and Tobin Q), explanatory variables of foreign diversification, bank’s size and bank’s age respectively. The findings revealed that foreign diversifications have negative and significant effect on all the performance indicators (NIM and TOBIN Q) used in the study. The explanatory variable (foreign diversification) was significant at 1% significance level. The findings from robustness check showed that the coefficients of foreign diversification are also largely negative for most of the banks. This study therefore recommends, amongst others, banks should consider diversification as a long run strategy for promoting growth and other forms of expansions. This can be achieved by promoting more regional banking integration within the sub-region. Given that formalities are already on the ground to facilitate entry and establishment within economies in the regional blocs, diversification in this direction will involve less institutional obstacles

The recent global financial crisis has renewed the focus on the resistance of Islamic banks in order to confront the crisis. While several empirical studies show that Islamic banks have no resist from the crisis. thus, Islamic banks run their business side by side with their counterpart and play the game under the same umbrella and the rules of game. In case of Indonesia, which implement dual banking system, Islamic banks have potential to be effected by the variables of conventional banks. Which mean, this condition led the Islamic banks have the vulnerable spot in economic life. This paper aim to examine the stability of Islamic banks and to discern dynamic behavior of Islamic banks to the macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate. the measure of stability of Islamic banks formulated as z-score. Then, We use VAR/VECM analysis in order to see the dynamic behavior and the vulnerability of Islamic banks. the paper found several findings, first, during the global financial crisis, Islamic banks more stable than the conventional banks, while after the global financial crisis conventional banks tend to be more stable than Islamic banks. Second, From the IRF test display that Islamic banks react sensitively to the shock of interest rate. however, Islamic banks prohibit the practice of interest rate. even though, in practical reason, Islamic bank use interest rate as benchmarking to determine the price. This condition put the Islamic Banks in vulnerable condition. Third, the FEVD test showed that the stability of Islamic banks mostly contribute by its own stability then followed by GDP, interest rate, exchange rate and Inflation. At the seventh period the stability of Islamic banks mostly contribute by its stability then followed by Inflation rate, GDP, exchange rate and interest rate.

AbstractUnlike business models of private banks based on profit maximization and shareholder-oriented governance, alternative banks (such as cooperative banks, government savings banks, and special purpose banks) share business models based on sustainable returns with longer time horizons, corporate missions that include social and public policy goals, and stakeholder-oriented governance. Strong evidence from recent research suggests that alternative banks often equal or outperform joint-stock banks in terms of efficiency, profitability, and risk management. This counters core ideas in contemporary banking theory and expectations of regulators about the superiority of private ownership and market-based banking. Concepts and theories from banking studies help explain how alternative banks outperform private banks in core functions such as creating and managing liquidity, pooling deposits, and reducing information asymmetries and agency costs. However, heterodox theories of the firm and institutional approaches to competitive advantage broaden the scope of analysis to explain further historical, social, and organizational advantages (and risks) in alternative banking. Alternative banks therefore require, and may inspire, alternative theories of banking and new approaches to bank regulation.

Today, commercial banks of the most environmentally affected countries invest voluntarily in social and environmental activities that targets socially-responsive business in the form of green banking. However, state-owned banks often encounter challenges in doing so since they operate in centralized manner and often lack in resources, government support and client base compared to commercial banks. Moreover, green banking initiates major changes in working environment and alters the provision of banking services for bankers in developing countries like Bangladesh. Given such challenges, it is important to examine the attitude of bankers working in state-owned banks towards the adoption of green banking. Findings claim that central bank regulations, followed by facilitating conditions and environmental concerns, are some of the factors that influence bankers' overall perceptions. Results indicate that bankers are fairly pragmatic in developing general attitudes towards the use of green banking as part of their work activities in all state-owned banks.

Commercial banks play a very important role in the economy of any country. They constitute the most useful intermediary in the financial markets, who have a vital role in ensuring the efficacy of all monetary and fiscal measures. Their continued good health and sustained viability are therefore of immense significance for any economy. Measures to ensure their well-being are of paramount importance in order to maintain a high level of investor confidence. In India, financial liberalization has opened up new vistas for the commercial banks and they can now operate as universal banks offering, under one roof, all kinds of financial services including project financing and leasing. Besides, banks are allowed to go in for investment in securities also. However, the guidelines for direct lending have not been touched so far. Consequently, there are restrictions on the ways in which banks in India can deploy their available resources. In this article, an analysis has been carried out to show how such structural restrictions translate into what is often termed as interest rate rigidities for banks. How the loan losses impact on their interest spread as well as the urgent need to improve the framework for recovery of banks' NPAs has also been gone into. Moreover, the scope for moral hazards in banks, which are limited liability entities, has been explored and need for efficient risk management as well as effective risk-based supervision for ensuring their sustained viability has been analyzed and commented upon. A cut-off risk for bankable projects has also been worked out. The findings are interesting because the analysis takes into account the real life constraints faced by the banking sector and the results reflect the realities of this sector.

Fundamental changes in the global economy are changing the basis of organisational competitive advantage. The challenge in attaining a competitive advantage is characterised by factors such as increased competition, market volatility, geographically dispersed operations, customer awareness, raising workforce diversity and stringent regulatory regimes. These factors have driven, and in turn have been driven by, an increasing complexity of products, services and the processes that create value, resulting in changes in the structural and functional dimensions of the organisation. Business executives and academics recognise the shift in value creating assets from the traditional land, labour and capital to intangible assets such as knowledge and information becoming the most important resources an organisation can muster.The combination and integration of intangible assets such as human resources, structural and relational resources has been grouped under the umbrella of intellectual capital. This study comprises of a single descriptive case study analysis to ascertain how intellectual capital is managed strategically to gain a competitive advantage in an organisation in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia. Based on document review and semi-structured interviews, this thesis investigated the extent to which an organisation in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia leveraged intellectual capital to gain competitive advantage. In this study it was found that there is a low level appreciation of the intellectual capital phenomenon as a strategic management tool in the participating organisation. However, the organisation has adopted aspects of intellectual capital and has implemented them successfully accounting for the organisation‘s competitive edge in the market.

There is no question that effective talent management requires a well-defined process. Talent management includes all talent processes needed to optimise people within an organization. The processes include: attracting, recruiting targeted selection, performance management, succession planning, talent reviews, development planning and support, career development, and workforce planning. The hired employees should be developed to mould into the organization culture so that they support the vision and mission of the organization. Retention of key employee is critical to the long term success of business as it ensures customer satisfaction, product sales, and satisfied co-workers, reporting staff, effective succession planning and a deeply embedded organisational knowledge and learning culture. iii The research problem in this study was to investigate how successfully Talent Management and Employee Retention strategies been implemented at the Bank of Zambia. To achieve this objective a comprehensive study was undertaken on talent management and employee retention. The study involved conducting a literature survey to understand the processes that are necessary for implementation of talent management and employee retention in an organization. An empirical study was later conducted to investigate whether the processes of talent management and employee retention have been successfully implemented at the Bank of Zambia. The survey was compared to the literature review to determine whether the Bank of Zambia complied with the findings in the literature review. The main findings from this research are that for talent management to be successful, the initial step of planning right from the strategic point of aligning to talent goals to business goals through to succession planning should be well conducted. This process needed special attention. As much as the empirical study showed a case of progress towards engagement, there was concern raised regarding job security. Some employees perceived that they were insecure in their job. Compensation and rewards were also perceived to lack equity in their distribution and that promotion and career progression were below expectation for may employees The final observation from the investigation was that the organizational culture was not well adopted by respondents. . Employees perceived that the culture did not support innovation and the rewards system did not provide incentives for better performance.

This thesis is composed of three empirical chapters each of which examines separate segments of Turkish banking system from different perspectives. First empirical chapter investigates regional loan distribution of development banks. The findings in this chapter suggest that political connection has played a significant role in development lending. There is also geographical bias which leads to higher volumes of loans in the regions close to the capital city. Second empirical chapter examines Islamic banks and compares them with conventional banks in terms of profitability and competition grounds. The results reveal that Islamic banks earn more returns with respect to conventional banks. The results also suggest that the regulatory changes of the last decade improve market power of these banks. The last empirical chapter investigates micro structure of Repo and Reverse Repo Market of Turkey in which only commercial banks can transact. This chapter initially presents the network topologies of this market that helps one to understand the characteristics of complex network in this market. This chapter then computes a connectivity measure and investigates the drivers of connectivity out of domestic and external factors. Although results provide very rich insights, external factors dominate the behaviour of network in this market.

This is an exploratory qualitative case study of the state of sustainability programs within a set of 12 mid-sized U.S. banks compared among themselves and then compared to a set of 12 global banks. This research was designed in two phases. Phase One presented the current state of sustainability within mid-sized U.S. banks and global banks based upon each bank’s public data as organized into three sections: a bank profile, major strategic initiatives, and bank sustainability initiatives and programs. Phase Two data were analyzed from 24 interviews with key executives within each bank. A structured interview format was used, and the interviews were conducted in-person, by phone, or via email depending on the respondent’s preference.

The research found that the majority of mid-sized U.S. banks had, from a regulatory view point, achieved the broader aspects of sustainability. Mid-sized U.S. banks had not seized the spirit of sustainability by organizing and communicating their efforts in the context of a voluntary formal reporting mechanism. Mid-sized banks generally relied on government compliance reports to communicate their efforts. By relying on compliance reporting, mid-sized U.S. banks are missing an opportunity to enhance their image and improve reputational and risk management efforts. It was found that the global banks demonstrated a willingness to embrace the spirit of sustainability past any regulatory requirements, but found their efforts were still in the process of integration within their many business units. It was also found that there is a need for one globally accepted reporting mechanism for sustainability performance. At present, there appear to be many competing requirements for reporting on sustainability efforts, which are beginning to tax internal departments of global banks in an effort to meet the information needs of all their stakeholders.

Using thematic analysis, five key contributions resulted: The first contribution is an understanding of the key components of mid-sized U.S. banks and global bank sustainability programs. The second contribution is identification of the motivators for mid-sized U.S. banks and global banks to establish a sustainability program. Third, a set of criteria was identified to help determine the success of a bank’s sustainability program that can be used by mid-sized U.S. banks and global banks (criteria for success). The fourth contribution is the presenting of the current state of sustainability programs for the set of banks used in the study. The fifth contribution is a set of guiding elements and impact benefits that can be used by any size bank executives to improve business results through implementation of a sustainability initiative.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Sydney, 2004.
Title from title screen (viewed 8 May 2008). Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the Discipline of Work and Organisational Studies, School of Business, Faculty of Economics and Business. Includes bibliographical references. Also available in print form.

Cette thèse analyse les conséquences de l’intégration d’un milieu bancaire conventionnel pour une banque islamique. Elle est composée de trois chapitres. Un premier traité de la conformité Sharia des banques islamiques. Cette conformité est assurée par un comité de supervision éthique. Nous détaillons le rôle et les tâches de ce comité de supervision éthique et montrons comment les contraintes réglementaires internationales ainsi que la pénurie éventuelle de personnels compétents pour alimenter ces sharia boards incitent la banque islamique à externaliser ce contrôle de conformité Sharia. En se proposant sur modèle théorique inspiré de Kornai, Maskin and Roland (2003), ce premier chapitre examine ainsi l'impact de l'externalisation de ce comité sur le business model de la banque islamique. Le deuxième chapitre est essentiellement empirique : nous comparons l'efficacité des deux modèles de banque, l’un internalisant (l’autre externalisant) le processus d’examen/ validation de la conformité Sharia. Pour procéder à cette étude empirique, nous examinons un échantillon d'une centaine de banques qui se divise en deux groupes de banques un premier qui externalise le contrôle de conformité Sharia et le deuxième l'internalise. Nous montrons que les banques sont plus efficaces lorsqu'elles externalisent ce processus de conformité. Finalement, un troisième chapitre traite la question de la création de liquidité au sein des deux banques, conventionnelle et islamique. Dans ce chapitre nous développons un modèle théorique inspiré de Diamond (2007) et nous comparons la création de liquidité de ces deux banques. Nous mettons en évidences les contraintes qui pèsent sur la banque islamique, elles se manifestent dans la structure du bilan des banques islamiques, un bilan qui présente un volume important d'actifs tangibles. On montre que la structure de ce bilan limite la possibilité pour les banques islamiques de concurrencer les banques conventionnelles et ainsi remet en cause leur capacité à intégrer un milieu bancaire conventionnel
This dissertation analyses the consequences of the integration of an Islamic bank into a conventional banking environment. The dissertation is composed of three chapters. The first examines the Islamic banks' compliance, which is ensured by a supervisory ethical committee. We examine the role and the tasks of this committee in detail, showing how international regulatory constraints, as well as a general lack of individuals with the required skills to sit on the Sharia boards, provide incentives for the Islamic bank to outsource the monitoring of Sharia compliance. Basing our study on a theoretical model, inspired by Kornai, Maskin and Roland (2003), this first chapter analyses how the outsourcing of this committee has an impact on the business model of the Islamic bank. The second chapter is largely empirical; we compare the effectiveness of two bank models, one in which the Sharia compliance validation process is internal, and one in which it is external. To test this empirical study, we analyze a sample of around 100 banks which are divided into two groups, one which outsources the Sharia compliance and monitoring and one which internalizes this process. We show that banks are more effective when they outsource the compliance monitoring process. Finally, the third chapter approaches the question of liquidity creation within two types of bank: Islamic and conventional. In this chapter, we develop a theoretical model inspired by Diamond (2007) and we compare the liquidity creation process in these two banks. We demonstrate the constraints that burden the Islamic bank, shown by the high volume of tangible assets in their balance sheets. We demonstrate that the structure of this balance sheet limits the possibilities for Islamic banks to compete with conventional banks, and thus brings into question their capacity to integrate a conventional banking environment

AbstractThis chapter develops further the role of a central bank and its interplay with commercial banks. Together, the two ensure the provision of liquidity to the economy, such that the real sectors are shielded from flows of funds originating from household and investors. We also disaggregate the banking system into two banks to represent deposit flows between banks and their impact on the central bank’s balance sheet, and to distinguish between what we call “relative” and “absolute” central bank intermediation. We then integrate deposit money creation by commercial banks into our system of financial accounts, and revisit some old debates, such as the limits of bank money creation and the role of related parameters that the central bank can set (not only the reserve requirement ratio, but also the collateral framework). Finally, we explain the concepts of “plain money” and “full reserve banking” within the financial accounts, and also discuss in this framework the recent proposals regarding central bank digital currency (CBDC).

In this paper, I consider the Turkish Banking Industry, which is dominated by a few large banks. Using a conjectural variation approach, I estimate a structural model to examine the market conduct of the largest banks for the period 1988-2009. Estimation results suggest that the Turkish banks colluded in the loan market during the sample period where the average mark-up is estimated to be in the range of 44% to 86% depending on the empirical specification. This evidence demonstrates a conflict between market concentration and competition in the Turkish banking industry. Thus, regulatory agencies should be cautious against attempts to increase concentration in the banking industry.

Banking activities exhibit highly dynamic and evolving feature in recent years. Healthy financial position of the banks therefore gains importance in assuring well-being of all economic agents in a country. Because of banks’ key role in financial markets and real economy, banking failures or inefficient performances may have profound effects on the whole economy. For this reason, it is important to monitor the bank ratios as a strength indicator. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate financial position of the banks in Turkey. To this end, we select particular 29 ratios of the present day banks which are matching the ratios of previously failed banks between the period 1997-2003. Therefore, we construct a data set by which the banks can be categorized into two groups, namely failed and non-failed banks. Data covering the period 1996-2014 extracted from Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency. In the first place, we perform ANOVA test to evaluate the most relevant ratios for bank failure. The ANOVA test results reveal that 13 of 29 ratios are not significant. The remaining ratios are used to implement factor analysis in order to categorize ratios and calculate factor scores. Lastly, we estimate a Probit regression model to determine conditional probability of failure for a given bank. Our results show that financial position of the banks exhibits substantial variations in Turkey. Furthermore, given the data set and methods employed, most of the banks have a robust financial position and are unlikely to fail.

Bank soundness is crucially important for the stability of the whole financial system. The goal of the paper is to reveal the contributing factors to bank soundness in the Latvian banking market. Multifactor regression analysis was applied as a core research method. Bank soundness was proxied by Risk index calculated for Latvian banks. Profitability, liquidity and asset quality ratios of individual banks extracted from BankScope data warehouse were used as explanatory variables. Research period covers 2007–2014. The regression model was created, based on financials of Latvian banks as for 2013. The reliability of the model was tested, using the financials from 2014 reports.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.