Academic literature on the topic 'Barren County'

While there has been some research on the parliamentary enclosure of upland waste in England and Wales during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, this topic still receives little attention in some recent accounts of parliamentary enclosure. Many aspects of the processes involved, and their impact on the landscape, are also poorly understood. Much research has proceeded either at a very general level or on the basis of detailed individual case studies. This paper adopts an intermediate scale, focusing on the old county of Westmorland to examine the geographical and chronological patterns of enclosure before looking more closely at some of the problems involved in creating a new landscape.

Almandine-spessartine garnets, from the Oxford County pegmatites and the Palermo No. 1 pegmatite, record significant compositional variations according to the degree of evolution of their hosting rock. Garnets from the most fractionated pegmatites (Mt. Mica, Berry-Havey, and Emmons) show the highest Mn, Nb, Ta, Zr, and Hf values, followed by those from the intermediate grade pegmatites (Palermo No. 1) and, finally, garnets from the barren pegmatites show the lowest values (Perham and Stop-35). Iron, Ca, and Mg contents follow an inverse order, with the highest contents in the latter pegmatites. Major element zoning shows increasing Mn values from core to rim in most garnet samples, while trace element zoning is not systematic except for some crystals which show a core to rim depletion for most of these elements. Chondrite normalized HREE (Heavy Rare Earth Elements) spectra show positive slopes for garnets from barren pegmatites, both positive and negative slopes for those associated with the intermediate pegmatite, and negative or flat slopes in garnets from the highly fractionated pegmatites. Ion exchange mechanisms, including Fe2+−1Mn2+1, (Fe2+, Mn2+)−1Si−1Li1P1; and, (Y, Ho3+)2(vac)1(Fe2+, Mn2+)−3, could explain most of the compositional variations observed in these garnets. These compositional variations are the reflection of the composition of the pegmatitic magma (barren pegmatites originate from a more ferromagnesian magma than fractionated pegmatites); and of the coexisting mineral phases competing with garnets to host certain chemical elements, such as biotite, schorl, plagioclase, apatite, Fe-Mn phosphates, Nb-Ta oxides, zircon, xenotime, and monazite.

The American persimmon (Diospyros virginiana) is a slow-growing, moderately sized tree fruit native to the forests of Kentucky. This tree fruit is in the early stages of commercial production with many cultivars selected from the wild. Small orchards of commercially available cultivars are planted in Kentucky. Persimmons are normally dioecious, and female trees require cross-pollination to produce fruit. There are two races of persimmon: the tetraploid (60-chromosome) race is centered in the southern Appalachian region, while the hexaploid (90-chromosome) race generally occupies a range north and west of the tetraploid range. These ranges overlap in Kentucky. Because the ranges overlap, cross-pollination may cause sexual incompatibility, resulting in pollination without fertilization, and therefore seedless fruits of poor quality. The objective of this study was to assess the ploidy level of commercially available American persimmon cultivars and native Kentucky persimmon populations. Leaf samples were collected from 45 cultivars and advanced selections, as well as 45 trees from native populations in Bullitt, Barren, and Franklin Counties. Flow cytometer analysis showed that only four of the selected cultivars were from the tetraploid race: Ennis Seedless, Weeping, Sugar Bear, and SFES; the remaining cultivars were from the hexaploid race. Both hexaploid and tetraploid American persimmon trees were identified in the populations sampled in the Bullitt County locations, but only tetraploid races were found in Franklin and Barren Counties. Because pollen from native trees could result in seedless fruit formation of poor quality when native seedlings are used as pollinizers in commercial production of American persimmon, ploidy level of seedlings needs to be considered.

Zhouqu County is not only an impoverished area but also a poor environment region. Frequent occurrence of geological disasters in Zhouqu, which largely determines the quality of ecological environment, affects the regional sustainable development. In this paper, on a case study of Chengguan Town of Zhouqu, two TM images acquired in pre- (2008)and post-disaster(2010) were selected to conduct the research, using remote sensing and GIS spatial analysis techniques. The state of the ecological environment and sustainable development of the region were evaluated by using the ecological footprint methodology. The results show: Firstly, the biocapacity of built-up area and cropland are reduced by 318.50gha and 82.78gha after debris flow disaster respectively, followed by forest land, grazing ground, fishing ground and barren ground, which has played a serious impediment in economic development; Secondly, the ecological deficit reaches to -0.9245gha/per-cap before disaster, however, it reduces to -1.0691gha/per-cap after disaster. This indicates that Chengguan Town is not sustainable development, after sudden disaster, the situation of unsustainable development becomes more serious; Thirdly, it is found that debris flow and landslides are mainly not only in forest land and cropland, also areas containing many people and buildings, which shows geological disasters has played a significant impact on the socio-economic development. Finally, this article provides scientific references for the restoring of ecological environment as well as scientific disaster relief after the debris flow disaster. Therefore, strengthening management and mitigation techniques of disaster is benefit to humans and socio-economic sustainable development.

Eco-environmental change prediction models are important decision tools for policy makers as they help to quantify environmental sensitivity and understand the relationship between human activities and environmental quality. Thus, this paper aims to analyze eco-environmental changes in Monteiro County, a semi-arid zone within northeastern Brazil. This study used means of satellite images, geographic information system and global position system techniques, topographic map, climatic data and soil maps, as well as field survey data. The result outputs were evaluated on their ability to accurately predict the most sensitive and least sensitive areas. The results showed that land cover changes have modified the environment in general, and two prominent environmental degradation processes were identified: land degradation, and low soil loss. The mean soil loss increased from 0.09 t ha−¹ yr−¹ in 1987 to 0.18 t ha−¹ yr−¹ in 2010, as an effect of vegetation gain and particularly the conversion of thousands of square kilometers of Tropophile forest middle slope and barren land into Tropophile forest plain and Tropophile forest high strand. Thus, this study provides insight on territorial ordering and management of environmental services with a regional perspective.

This paper reports on a situation where severe active acid sulfate soils were brought into existence by the construction of a new (opened in 2002) airport in Stafford County, VA, approximately 60 km south-west of Washington, DC. About 290 ha of new land surface was brought into existence that consisted of both scalped land surfaces on steep slopes, and spoil (fill), some of which was graded to provide level land surfaces for paved runways. Over 150 ha of ultra acidic (pH <3.5 at soil surface) post-construction acid sulfate soils remained barren for over 2 years before the acid sulfate soil situation was properly recognised. Construction took place in an originally dissected landscape with about 30 m of local relief. The construction was designed to balance the cut and fill areas so that soil materials would not need to be taken from the area or brought to it from other locations. This resulted in some deep cuts (scalped surfaces) in the higher parts of the landscapes, which retained slopes of about 25%. Great difficulty was encountered in establishing vegetation on these surfaces. The exposed sulfidic materials were dense, commonly on steep slopes, and developed low pHs, some <pH 2, after exposure. After a dry period in the autumn of 2001, sulfuric horizons crusted over with bitter hydrated sulfate salt minerals had formed in the surface of sulfidic materials originally exposed in 1999. By X-ray diffraction, halotrychite, Fe2+Al2(SO4)4.22H2O, was identified as a main white salt mineral and copiapite group minerals, e.g. Al2/3Fe3+4(SO4)6(OH)2.20H2O for aluminocopiapite, were identified as a yellow salt minerals. Information about, and photographs of, the site, soils, and drainage waters are presented, including examples of deleterious environmental impacts. Intensive reclamation/revegetation measures were initiated in 2002. These involved the application of high rates of lime stabilised biosolids (sewage sludge) incorporated to a depth of about 0.15 m to neutralise acidity and add organic matter and nutrients to the soils. These measures permitted the establishment of acid- and salt-tolerant grasses on the acid sulfate soils and caused dramatic increases in pH and drops in Fe and Al levels in stream waters leaving the site. However, they also caused initial large increases in ammonia/ammonium-N in the waters and subsequent increases in NO3-N in the waters. Experience with this and other similar sites demonstrates the need for engineers involved with earth-moving construction activities to be educated in the principles of acid sulfate soils so that the number of such disturbances that result in the creation of active acid sulfate soils can be lessened or, preferably, eliminated. Plans for recognition and reclamation of acid sulfate soil situations should be built into the construction plans and designs when it is necessary to disturb sulfidic materials.

Equivalent temperature (TE), which incorporates both dry (surface air temperature, T) and moist heat content associated with atmospheric moisture, is a better indicator of overall atmospheric heat content compared to T alone. This paper investigates the impacts of different types of air masses on TE during the growing season (April–September). The study used data from the Kentucky Mesonet for this purpose. The growing season was divided into early (April–May), mid (June–July), and late (August–September). Analysis suggests that TE for moist tropical (MT) air mass was as high as 61 and 81 °C for the early and mid-growing season, respectively. Further analysis suggests that TE for different parts of the growing seasons were statistically significantly different from each other. In addition, TE for different air masses was also statistically significantly different from each other. The difference between TE and T (i.e. TE-T) is smaller under dry atmospheric conditions but larger under moist conditions. For example, in Barren County, the lowest difference (20–10 °C) was 10 °C. It was reported on 18 April 2010, a dry weather day. On the other hand, the highest difference for this site was 48 °C and was reported on 11 August 2010, a humid day.

ABSTRACT On January 7, 1992, a rupture in an underground oil transfer pipeline resulted in a spill of about 2,950 bbl (469 m3) of crude oil into a high marsh community near Chiltipin Creek, San Patricio County, Texas. Authorization for burning the oil, as a cleanup method, was given by the Texas General Land Office (the designated state on-scene coordinator). The environmental impact of the spill and ensuing burn on this high marsh has been assessed by monitoring changes in the total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) content of the associated floral community and soil over time. Ultimately 6.5 ha of oil and vegetation of the 15.5 ha surrounded by sorbent booms were burned, causing them to become barren. These bare patches produced by the burn were rapidly colonized by grasses, mainly Distichlis spicata. Secondary succession by perennial climax species is slow, resulting in significantly lower species diversity and biomass in the oiled and burned area even after 30 months. Significant changes within, and interactions between, impacted and control areas were determined using repeated measures MANOVA. TPH measurements made in December 1992 and repeated in July 1993 show consistent decreases. The obvious disadvantages of burning as a cleanup method in this high marsh area are the substantial initial damage to plants and the high residual hydrocarbon levels in the sediment.

An anomalous pair of small, isolated calcareous sandstone bodies in the middle member of the upper Eocene Wagonwheel Formation, Wagonwheel Mountain, of the San Joaquin Valley, California, contain numerous articulated specimens of soft-bottom-dwelling bivalves. The lucinid bivalve Epilucina washingtoniana (Clark, 1925) dominates the fauna, which also sparingly contains the thyasirid bivalve Conchocele bisecta (Conrad, 1849) and the vesicomyid bivalve Vesicomya (Vesicomya) aff. V. (V.) tschudi Olsson, 1931.The fossils in the pair of calcareous sandstone bodies, which are surrounded by deep-water silty mudstone barren of megafossils, most likely represent cold-seep communities in the upper bathyal environment. These cold seeps apparently were formed by diffusive flow through coarse sand-fill material in submarine channels.Epilucina washingtoniana was previously known only from upper Eocene rocks on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, and in Santa Barbara County, southern California. This species, along with a late Eocene species from Colombia, South America, are the earliest representatives of Epilucina. The Wagonwheel Formation contains one of the earliest records of Conchocele bisecta, which is a widespread Cenozoic fossil and is extant in the north Pacific. The species of Vesicomya in the Wagonwheel Formation is the earliest record of Vesicomya s.s. and has close affinity to Vescicomya (Vesicomya) tschudi Olsson, 1931, from the upper Oligocene of northwestern Peru, South America. As in the case of Conchocele bisecta, Vesicomya s.s. has not been reported previously from the Eocene of California.

Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiologic agent of Chagas disease, infects a variety of wild mammals in the southern United States, but it has only recently been isolated from raccoons trapped in the state of Kentucky. The purpose of the present study was to use a molecular genotyping approach, followed by DNA sequencing to determine the genotypes (type I, or types IIa-IIe) of 15 of the Kentucky isolates. DNA samples were prepared from 15 T. cruzi- isolates using a Qiagen mini kit, and PCR amplification was performed using published primers for the 24S α rDNA sequence (D71 and D72), the non-transcribed spacer of the mini-exon genes (TC, TC1, and TC2), the 18S rDNA sequence (V1 and V2), and TCZ1 and TCZ2 primers that amplify a 188-base pair segment of the repetitive 195-bp nuclear DNA sequence of T. cruzi. DNA sequencing (ABI 3130 Genetic Analyzer) was performed on all amplification products obtained from the PCR analysis of the RW2 and RB12 isolates (randomly selected to represent both Warren and Barren counties of Kentucky; the number started with an “R” which stood for raccoon, a “W” for Warren County or a “B” for Barren County, followed by a number which represented the order in which animal was trapped). The resulting sequences were edited before analysis using the BLAST database of the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Genbank. All 15 isolates were positively confirmed as T. cruzi based upon PCR amplification of a 195 bp repetitive genomic DNA sequence, and all 15 isolates showed identical PCR amplification results with all 4 sets of T. cruzi-specific primers. Two positive PCR samples were randomly selected for further DNA sequence analysis, and all samples were positively identified as the type IIa genotype of T. cruzi with max identities ranging from 94%-99%. The results of this study confirm that all hemoculture isolates obtained from raccoons trapped in Warren and Barren counties of Kentucky are T. cruzi. Furthermore, all BLAST comparisons of amplicon DNA sequences showed high sequence identity to type IIa strains of T. cruzi. The type IIa strain of T. cruzi is the most commonly reported genotype from raccoons trapped in the U.S.A.

In July 1980, the Barren River District Health Department (BRDHD), serving eight counties (combined population approximately 204,000) in Southcentral Kentucky, was selected as a demonstration site under the auspices of the federal Health Education Risk Reduction (HERR) Program. With continued HERR funding for eight years, the BRDHD developed several successful health promotion projects. Major components of these projects include: 1) community health promotion, which serves to identify high -risk groups in the community and provide them with health education-health promotion services, 2) school health education which included the development of a preschool health education curriculum, 3) teacher education workshop, which instructs primary and secondary public school teachers in health education methods, 4) smoking cessation. and 5) a large industrial wellness program. This study reports on an eight year program evaluation of the HERR demonstration. Overall, the program evaluation suggests an increase in health knowledge and some attitude and behavior change for many of the participants ii BRDHD programs.

In this study, we use a nonparametric technique, locally weighted robust least squares regression (LOESS), to forecast a 24 hour demand profile at the household level and compare it to existing aggregate demand models discussed in literature. Of these aggregate demand models, a quadratic autoregressive model was selected to be used as a basis for comparison with the LOESS forecasts. It was our goal to automate the forecasting process by using the goodness of fit metric, AICCI, for smoothing parameter selection. The statistical workflow was executed using SAS and data was provided by the Glasgow Electric Plant Board of Barren County, Kentucky. Results show that LOESS outperformed the autoregressive model in roughly 80% of all cases and than using LOESS alone or as part of an ensemble model is a feasible approach to automating future household demand profile for the purpose of generating different levels of power demand profile aggregation as needed by Glasgow Electronic Plant Board.

Ten varieties of oats were grown in a trial to test grain yield. Five of the varieties produced more than 4,000 pounds per acre; the top - yielding variety, Ogle, from Minnesota, produced 4,578 pounds per acre. Difficulties in establishing a perfect stand with the small plot grain drill would probably mean that a farmer could expect yields higher than these when using full -sized equipment. Considering the premium for oats, oats for grain could be a viable alternative crop.

AbstractItaly is a very complex case of migration management and of foreign workers’ integration in the labour market. Both have developed in the grip of structural national limits, due to the economic and social structure of the country, but also to its political culture and legal framework. Work is certainly among the most effective instruments for ensuring the effective integration of foreigners into the social fabric of the host country. However, the chapter discusses the many obstacles that hinder the full integration of foreigners into the Italian labour market, especially when they do not have a residence permit for work reasons but are beneficiaries of international and humanitarian protection. Since access to work for beneficiaries of international and humanitarian protection is still very complicated, there is a strong risk that the progressive reduction in the number of permits granted for work reasons and the simultaneous increase in the number of those granted for protection will slow down the process of integration through work. Furthermore, particularly long and complicated administrative recruitment procedures would require a comprehensive review of the legislation to become instruments of social and economic integration and not of marginalization. Against this backdrop, the chapter highlights how the law may abdicate from its empowering purpose to become a concrete barrier for the full enjoyment of newcomers fundamental rights.

AbstractWe introduce an automated, formal, counterexample-based approach to synthesise Barrier Certificates (BC) for the safety verification of continuous and hybrid dynamical models. The approach is underpinned by an inductive framework: this is structured as a sequential loop between a learner, which manipulates a candidate BC structured as a neural network, and a sound verifier, which either certifies the candidate’s validity or generates counter-examples to further guide the learner. We compare the approach against state-of-the-art techniques, over polynomial and non-polynomial dynamical models: the outcomes show that we can synthesise sound BCs up to two orders of magnitude faster, with in particular a stark speedup on the verification engine (up to three orders less), whilst needing a far smaller data set (up to three orders less) for the learning part. Beyond improvements over the state of the art, we further challenge the new approach on a hybrid dynamical model and on larger-dimensional models, and showcase the numerical robustness of our algorithms and codebase.

AbstractAs a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Seychelles is quite vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is considered a national priority. Despite efforts to enhance its adaptive capacity, a number of barriers still hamper the adaptation process such as fragile institutions and inadequate governance to climate change, financial and human resource capacity constraints, and limited scientific knowledge and understanding of how climate change affects the country. A key barrier to climate change adaptation in the Seychelles is called “remote” or “legacy” barriers – linked to land use decisions made five decades ago during which wetlands were reclaimed for property development. Therefore, 80% of Seychelles’ critical infrastructures are located on the coastline and are exposed to floods, erosion, and sea level rise. Additionally, the pros and cons of hard and soft adaptation interventions in the Seychelles ranging from rock armoring, retaining wall, groynes to ecosystem-based adaptation actions such as timber piling, beach nourishment, dune management, rainwater harvesting, and mangrove and coral restoration are assessed with recommendations on the way forward. In other words, this chapter provides some examples of actions and strategies that may assist the island nations to improve on adaptation actions. An example that addresses partly the financial constrain is the Seychelles’ Conservation and Climate Adaptation Trust (SeyCCAT) that provide funding for medium- and large-scale project in the Seychelles since 2015.

More than twenty years after the events described in the past chapters I was walking with my Lady Lyndon, in the Rotunda, at Ranelagh.* It was in the year 1790; the emigration from France* had already commenced, the old counts...

You who have never been out of your country, know little what it is to hear a friendly voice in captivity; and there’s many a man that will not understand the cause of the burst of feeling which I have confessed took place on...

How were times changed with me now! I had left my country a poor penniless boy—a private soldier in a miserable marching regiment. I returned an accomplished man, with property to the amount of five thousand guineas in my possession, with a splendid wardrobe...

Mr Dobbs Broughton and Mr Musselboro were sitting together on a certain morning at their office in the City, discussing the affairs of their joint business. The City office was a very poor place indeed, in comparison with the fine house which Mr Dobbs...

Abstract Kuwait’s oil reserves include approximately 13 bn barrels of heavy oil, primarily located in the northern region of the country. The Lower Fars (LF) heavy oil development project aims to extract heavy oil from the Ratqa oil field. The US$7 bn project is being developed in phases, with the first phase expected to start in 2019 with a production rate of 60,000 Barrel of Oil Per Day (BOPD). This amount is planned to ramp up to 270,000 BOPD by 2030. The steam required for the Enhanced Heavy Oil Recovery (EHOR) process can be either generated by using conventional fuels or renewable energy resources, such as solar energy. The amount of steam required to recover a certain quantity of heavy oil depends on the value of Steam to Oil Ratio (SOR). The aim of this work was to determine the specifications of a parabolic trough collector field required to produce steam with the right properties to recover 270,000 BOPD from Lower Fars reservoir. The Industrial Process Heat (IPH) model of the System Advisor Model (SAM) software, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was used for this purpose. The capital cost and the running cost of the project, as well as the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH), were also determined. The simulation was implemented on EuroTrough ET150 trough collectors and Schott PTR 70 receiving tubes. Different plant designs with different types of heat transfer fluids (HTF) including Therminol VP-1, Therminol 59, Therminol 66, Dowtherm Q, Dowtherm RP, and Caloria HT43 have been investigated.

This rapid review synthesises evidence on FCDO climate projects across the East African region in the following countries; Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania. This review established that sector stakeholders in countries like Rwanda lacked climate impact information. This highlights the need of providing the right information in the right form to meet the end users need. The above case studies have shown the need for consistent and harmonised future climate projections that are country specific. According to a study undertaken in Tanzania and Malawi, understanding the likely future characteristics of climate risk is a key component of adaptation and climate-resilient planning, but given future uncertainty it is important to design approaches that are strongly informed by local considerations and robust to uncertainty. According to the findings from the research, policy incoherence, over-reliance on donor funding, change in leadership roles is a barrier to adaptation. There is also an urgent need for mechanisms for sharing experience and learning from methodologies, technologies, and challenges. Further, Stakeholder dialogue and iterative climate service processes need to be facilitated. This review also explores approaches to communicating climatic uncertainties with decision-makers. Particularly, presentation of data using slide-sets, and stories about possible futures.

The paper critically examines the New Keynesian explanation of hysteresis based on the role of long-term unemployment. We first examine its analytical foundations, according to which rehiring long-term unemployed individuals would not be possible without accelerating inflation. Then we empirically assess its validity along two lines of inquiry. First, we investigate the reversibility of long-term unemployment. Then we focus on episodes of sustained long-term unemployment reductions to check for inflationary effects. Specifically, in a panel of 25 OECD countries (from 1983 to 2016), we verify by means of local projections whether they are associated with inflationary pressures in a subsequent five-year window. Two main results emerge: i) the evolution of the long-term unemployment rate is almost completely synchronous with the dynamics of the total unemployment rate, both during downswings and upswings; ii) we do not find indications of accelerating or persistently higher inflation during and after episodes of strong declines in the long-term unemployment rate, even when they occur in country-years in which the actual unemployment rate was estimated to be below a conventionally estimated Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Our results call into question the role of long-term unemployment in causing hysteresis and provide support to policy implications that are at variance with the conventional wisdom that regards the NAIRU as an inflationary barrier.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.