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Journal articles on the topic 'Betting games'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 18 February 2022

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1

Webber, Don J., Ian Milliner, and Paul White. "A STATISTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF FIXED ODDS BETTING RULES IN SOCCER." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 3, no. 1 (2013): 89–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v3i1.543.

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Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.

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2

Kushner, D. "Betting the farm on games." IEEE Spectrum 48, no. 6 (2011): 70–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mspec.2011.5783711.

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TURCU, I., G. B. BURCEA, and D. L. DIACONESCU. "THE IMPACT OF THE BETTING INDUSTRY ON SPORTS." Series IX Sciences of Human Kinetics 13(62), no. 2 (2020): 251–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.31926/but.shk.2020.13.62.2.32.

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Sports betting is the oldest form of gambling in the world. In the beginning, it was simply a leisure activity. We are currently talking about a multi-billion-euro deal. The sports betting industry has changed more in 15 years than in the last 50 years. In the 1950s, sports betting began to enter the world and almost nothing changed until the beginning of the 21st century. However, with the onset of the new millennium, online betting has changed the landscape dramatically, and is now developing at a fast pace than ever before. The future is always unpredictable, but we will try to imagine it b

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4

Ötkan, Can Çavin, and Tekin Çolakoğlu. "Participants opinions related sports betting games in Turkey." Journal of Human Sciences 17, no. 1 (2020): 359–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.14687/jhs.v17i1.5945.

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Purpose of the research; culminating in the February 13, 2019 '’İddaa Tender'’ with the following changes took place in Turkey, legal and illegal betting in virtual platform is to examine the opinions of the individuals participating in the game. Case study pattern, one of the qualitative research methods, was used in the study. The study group of the research consists of 14 participants who participated in illegal sports betting in the virtual platform, determined by the purposive sampling method. During the data collection phase, interview technique was used through the semi-structured quest

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Grant, Andrew, David Johnstone, and Oh Kang Kwon. "Optimal Betting Strategies for Simultaneous Games." Decision Analysis 5, no. 1 (2008): 10–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1080.0106.

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6

Paul, Rodney, Andrew P. Weinbach, and Kenneth Small. "The Relationship between Sportsbook Volume, Forecast Accuracy, and Market Efficiency: The NFL and NCAA Football." Journal of Prediction Markets 8, no. 2 (2014): 29–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v8i2.888.

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Using betting market volume data for the NFL and NCAA Football, we examine the role of betting volume as it relates to bettor biases, forecast accuracy, and volume-based betting market strategies. We find that betting volume has a statistically significant effect on the percentage bet on the favorite, but its impact is different between the two levels of football. Increased betting volume was shown to not have an impact on forecast accuracy in the sports. Simple betting simulations revealed that underdogs win more than implied by efficiency in low-volume NFL games, but other strategies did not

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Paul, Rodney J., and Andrew P. Weinbach. "SPORTSBOOK BEHAVIOR IN THE NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING MARKET: TESTS OF THE TRADITIONAL AND LEVITT MODELS OF SPORTSBOOK BEHAVIOR." Journal of Prediction Markets 3, no. 2 (2012): 21–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v3i2.460.

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The predictions of the traditional balanced-book sportsbook model and the alternative Levitt model of sportsbook behavior are tested using actual betting percentages on the favorite/underdog and over/under for NCAA Football. Sportsbooks are found to not balance betting dollars, which is in contradiction to the assumptions of the traditional models of sportsbook behavior. In the pointspread market, more bets are placed on the favorite in contests with road favorites and in games with higher pointspreads. In the totals market, more bets are placed on the over as the total increases and in games

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Girdner, Clay, Justin Davis, Andy Fodor, and David Kirch. "Early Season NBA Over/Under Bias." Journal of Prediction Markets 7, no. 2 (2013): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v7i2.601.

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In this paper we analyze the total line betting market for National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season games for the 2009-2012 seasons. Specifically, we divide seasons by week and analyze points scored, total lines and game statistics such as field goal percentage and turnovers. We find the NBA total line market is generally very efficient with points scored and total lines increasing nearly evenly over the first 17 weeks of the season before leveling off. However, the total line market is inefficient in Week 1 with 58.2% of first week games having total scores less than total lines d

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Nela, MSc Alfred. "The Incorporation of the School Age Group of 16-18 Years Old in Gambling." ILIRIA International Review 5, no. 1 (2015): 351. http://dx.doi.org/10.21113/iir.v5i1.24.

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The scientific research of this paper focuses on the involvement of the school age group 16-18 years old in sports betting games impacted by beliefs on luck and social groups. For the collection of data literature is utilized, questionnaires are distributed and also focus groups were conducted. The assumptions of the assignment are: a) The involvement of school age group 16-18 years in sports betting games are manners learned from their comrades, b) The school age group 16-18 years old attribute to fate the participation in sports betting games. Over 64% of responses manifest that they have le

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10

Davis, Justin, Jarrod Dawson, and Kevin Krieger. "Correlated Parlay Betting: An Analysis of Betting Market Profitability Scenarios in College Football." Journal of Prediction Markets 12, no. 2 (2018): 68–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v12i2.1562.

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In this paper we consider the case of potential “correlated parlays” in American college football wagering. The structure of college football games is such that games in which favorites prevail in “against-the-spread” (spread) bets are expected to be more likely to go over the posted “total” of the game. Using a longitudinal data set over the years from 2005-2015, our findings confirm this to be the case. However, to prevent bettors from utilizing this trend to profit in their wagers, many sportsbooks disallow some, or all, same-game parlay bets. Consequently, we find that sportsbooks have gen

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11

Feddersen, Arne, Brad R. Humphreys, and Brian P. Soebbing. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting." Journal of Sports Economics 19, no. 4 (2016): 455–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002516656726.

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We develop evidence of bettors with sentiment bias in the betting market on National Basketball Association (NBA) games. We use measures of team popularity (arena capacity utilization and team all-star votes received) as proxies for the presence of biased bettors. Analysis of point spreads and bet outcomes for more than 32,000 NBA games played in 1981-2012 shows that bookmakers increase prices on games involving popular home teams, an outcome consistent with sentiment bias. These changes in prices do not translate into higher returns for bettors, suggesting that bookmakers shade point spreads

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12

Gottlieb, Gary. "An optimal betting strategy for repeated games." Journal of Applied Probability 22, no. 4 (1985): 787–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3213946.

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We consider the problem of finding a betting strategy for an infinite sequence of wagers where the optimality criterion is the minimization of the expected exit time of wealth from an interval. We add the side constraint that the right boundary is hit first with at least some specified probability. The optimal strategy is derived for a diffusion approximation.

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Gottlieb, Gary. "An optimal betting strategy for repeated games." Journal of Applied Probability 22, no. 04 (1985): 787–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200108022.

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We consider the problem of finding a betting strategy for an infinite sequence of wagers where the optimality criterion is the minimization of the expected exit time of wealth from an interval. We add the side constraint that the right boundary is hit first with at least some specified probability. The optimal strategy is derived for a diffusion approximation.

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14

McCannon, Bryan C. "Replacement Referees and NFL Betting Markets." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 9, no. 2 (2015): 14–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v9i2.983.

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Are betting markets efficient? The 2012 labor dispute between the NFL and the referees is used as a quasi-experiment to assess whether the betting markets are able to achieve accurate “prices” in an uncertain environment. More points were scored and underdogs performed relatively better resulting in upsets and closer-than-expected games. Betting markets, though, were unable to anticipate or adjust to this systematic effect even though irregularities in gambling markets were reported before the beginning of the season. Not only were they inefficient, but profitable betting strategies can be ide

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15

Ponsford, Dan, Willem B. Hollmann, and Anna Siewierska. "Sources of BET." Functions of Language 20, no. 1 (2013): 90–124. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/fol.20.1.04pon.

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We investigate the sources of betting constructions, and specifically their predicates. The notion of risking something of value on an outcome is a complex one. Culturally, some degree of disposability of property is required. The concept is nevertheless lexicalized in many parts of the world. Betting takes various forms, ranging from betting between individuals, which we contend is the basic case, to betting in the context of an institution such as horse racing, cockfighting, lotteries, or on games such as card games. Taking a similar approach to Zalizniak (2008), we use polysemy as a means o

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Kovačević, Ljubica. "Legal, financial and marketing aspects of games of chance in the Republic of Serbia." Bastina, no. 53 (2021): 313–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/bastina31-31228.

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This paper mostly discusses legal and some economic aspects of games of chance as an economic activity. In that context, the negative effects of gambling and betting activities are pointed out, especially on the development and spread of social deviations due to the uncontrolled consumption of games of chance. The paper aims to indicate in what way, and to what extent, the legislation in the Republic of Serbia regulates gambling and betting activities, i.e., what impact the legislation has exclusively on the financial and marketing business aspects of the three most represented organizers of g

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17

Innocenti, Alessandro, Tommaso Nannicini, and Roberto Ricciuti. "The Importance of Betting Early." Risks 9, no. 4 (2021): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9040067.

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We evaluate the impact of timing on decision outcomes when both the timing and the relevant decision are chosen under uncertainty. Sports betting provides the testing ground, as we exploit an original dataset containing more than one million online bets on games of the Italian Major Soccer League. We find that individuals perform systematically better when they place their bets farther away from the game day. The better performance of early bettors holds controlling for (time-invariant) unobservable ability, learning during the season, and timing of the odds. We attribute this result to the in

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18

Stübinger, Johannes, Benedikt Mangold, and Julian Knoll. "Machine Learning in Football Betting: Prediction of Match Results Based on Player Characteristics." Applied Sciences 10, no. 1 (2019): 46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10010046.

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In recent times, football (soccer) has aroused an increasing amount of attention across continents and entered unexpected dimensions. In this course, the number of bookmakers, who offer the opportunity to bet on the outcome of football games, expanded enormously, which was further strengthened by the development of the world wide web. In this context, one could generate positive returns over time by betting based on a strategy which successfully identifies overvalued betting odds. Due to the large number of matches around the globe, football matches in particular have great potential for such

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19

Horowitz, Ira. "INFORMATION AND IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK IN THE NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BETTING MARKET." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 5, no. 3 (2013): 27–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v5i3.572.

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Betting lines and scores from the 2009/10 college basketball season for 169 mid-major and major colleges are used to verify the efficiency hypothesis for the betting-market analogy to the CAPM-based market model. As in that model, the portion of the variance in the spreads that is unexplained by the betting lines is the idiosyncratic risk associated with a team’s games. The paper shows that this risk is due to team-specific and conference-specific informational and consistency-of-play factors that impact bettors’ decisions.

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20

Paul, Rodney J., and Andrew P. Weinbach. "DOES SPORTSBOOK.COM SET POINTSPREADS TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS?" Journal of Prediction Markets 1, no. 3 (2012): 209–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v1i3.429.

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The Levitt (2004) model of sportsbook behavior is tested using actual percentages of dollars bet on NFL games from the internet sportsbook, Sportsbook.com. Simple regression results suggest that Sportsbook.com sets pointspreads (prices) to maximize profits, as the Levitt model assumes, not to balance the betting dollars, as the traditional model of sportsbook behavior assumes. Sportsbook.com is found to accept significantly more wagering dollars on road favorites, larger favorites, and on the over for the highest totals in the over/under betting market. Bettor liquidity constraints and sportsb

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21

Grant, Andrew, and Peter W. Buchen. "A COMPARISON OF SIMULTANEOUS KELLY BETTING STRATEGIES." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 6, no. 2 (2013): 1–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v6i2.579.

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In this paper we consider the problem of Kelly betting on simultaneous games, and the relative performance of betting strategies that use multibets compared to those that do not. We develop a simulation model based on the Dirichlet distribution to test the performance of three Kelly betting strategies using the empirical odds distribution from the 2007-08 English Premier League Season. This model allows us to control for the size of a bettor’s edge and the noise of this edge. The simulation results suggest that the Kelly using multibets of all levels outperforms the portfolio optimisation appr

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22

Wu, Mu-En, Hui-Huang Tsai, Wei-Ho Chung, and Chien-Ming Chen. "Analysis of Kelly betting on finite repeated games." Applied Mathematics and Computation 373 (May 2020): 125028. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.125028.

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23

Paul, Rodney J., Yoav Wachsman, and Andrew Weinbach. "MEASURING AND FORECASTING FAN INTEREST IN NFL FOOTBALL GAMES." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 6, no. 3 (2013): 34–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v6i3.611.

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This study examines the relationship between NFL game characteristics and the frequency of fan ratings on the NFL’s website (www.NFL.com). The margin of victory and overall total points scored in a game are shown to be significant determinants of the number of times individual games are rated; suggesting fans enjoy close and high-scoring games. While the actual game characteristics are only known for certain after the game is played, information provided by betting markets show similar predictive power in estimating the number of times a game is rated. Given that betting market data is generat

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Salaga, Steven, Scott Tainsky, and Michael Mondello. "Betting Market Outcomes and NBA Television Viewership." Journal of Sport Management 34, no. 2 (2020): 161–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2019-0046.

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The authors demonstrate that betting market outcomes are a statistically significant and economically relevant driver of local market television viewership in the National Basketball Association. Ratings are higher when the local market team covers the point spread and when point spread outcome uncertainty is increased. They further illustrate that point spread market outcomes have a larger relative impact on viewership in less-popular games and when the local market team is expected to perform poorly. This suggests wagering market access serves as insurance to the league and its franchises ag

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Bronder, Thomas. "Mittelalterliche Würfelspiele mit Einsatz und Gewinn." Board Game Studies Journal 12, no. 1 (2018): 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/bgs-2018-0001.

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Abstract The second part in the 1284 Book of Games of Alfonso X. contains the description of twelve medieval games of dice. Certain information on the amount and timing of bets of the players are only very briefly displayed and are completely missing in several games. The exact course of such games is therefore unknown. What did the players know about their chances of rolling dice and how they could use them when playing the dice? In order to imagine the process of betting for gain, the characteristics of these games of dice are examined and compared with contemporary games of chance.

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Harkins, Ryan C., and John M. Hitchcock. "Exact Learning Algorithms, Betting Games, and Circuit Lower Bounds." ACM Transactions on Computation Theory 5, no. 4 (2013): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2539126.2539130.

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27

Bartlett, Jonathan. "Do Mutation Rates Match the Kelly Criterion?" Communications of the Blyth Institute 2, no. 1 (2020): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.33014/issn.2640-5652.2.1.bartlett.2.

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The Kelly Criterion defines an optimal betting strategy for games that have a defined risk and payoff. This letter explores the question of if this can be used as a methodology for analyzing mutation rates.

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28

Paul, Rodney J., and Andrew Weinbach. "WAGERING PREFERENCES OF NFL BETTORS: DETERMINANTS OF BETTING VOLUME." Journal of Prediction Markets 6, no. 1 (2012): 42–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v6i1.496.

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Actual betting volume, in terms of the number of bets placed on each game, is studied for the 2008 National Football League season. The dataset includes bets placed through a select group of online sportsbooks, collectively totaling an average of more than 85,000 bets per game. Game-to-game betting volume is shown to be affected by television coverage, as prime-time games on NBC and ESPN have large positive and significant effects. NFL Network coverage, not universally available for viewers, is shown to have a negative and significant effect. Bettors are also shown to prefer matchups between h

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Fodor, Andy. "DOES JET LAG CREATE A PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR NFL BETTORS?" Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 8, no. 1 (2014): 41–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v8i1.621.

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Traveling across multiple time zones, especially from east-to-west so that hours are “lost”, has documented negative effects on athletic performance. Nichols (2012) finds mixed evidence that sports betting markets fail to account for these effects. We reconsider, for the 2005-2010 NFL regular seasons, the “jet lag” hypothesis with more direct methods. We find that closing lines of NFL contests are set irrationally such that the jet lag effect is not appreciated. More importantly, we are the first to document that betting against potential jet lag teams proves to be markedly profitable. This pr

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Mirabile, McDonald Paul, and Mark David Witte. "College football and the Vegas line: Deconstruction and arbitrage." Journal of Prediction Markets 10, no. 1 (2016): 53–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v10i1.1183.

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We examine the Vegas line in college football games by employing two separate regression models to deconstruct the Vegas line and actual margin of victory for 4,590 unique contests from the 2005 through 2011 seasons. A comparison of these two models suggests which factors represent a true relationship with the margin of victory and which reflect bettor biases. An additional model of the margin of victory illustrates which factors the Vegas line systematically misrepresents. The authors find a number of factors inadequately priced in the Vegas line that help explain variation in the actual marg

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31

Badarinathi, Ravija, and Ladd Kochman. "Football Betting and the Efficient Market Hypothesis." American Economist 40, no. 2 (1996): 52–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/056943459604000207.

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Three betting rules which had been nonrandomly profitable in both their initial application to the 1969–74 National Football League seasons and their replication during the years of 1975–81 were applied to all NFL games played between September 1984 and January 1994. One rule proved to be nonrandom and profitable for a third consecutive trial—a feat suggesting that bettors may be able to “beat the bookie” and, more broadly, that prices in competitive markets may not discount all available information in swift fashion.

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Thorhauge, Anne Mette, and Rune K. L. Nielsen. "Epic, Steam, and the role of skin-betting in game (platform) economies." Journal of Consumer Culture 21, no. 1 (2021): 52–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1469540521993929.

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In this article, we discuss how and why virtual items known as “skins” travel beyond games and into wider online ecosystems where they become tokens in gambling games. We argue that betting with skins purchased on the Steam platform contributes to the wider platform economy. We do this on the basis of a comparative analysis of Counter-Strike: Global Offensive and Fortnite: Battle Royale as well as the two platforms on which these games exist. First, we discuss the notion of platform economies in relation to the two cases in question and how this positions the consumer as “prosumer” and “micro-

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33

Swedberg, Richard. "A World of Chance: Betting on Religion, Games, Wall Street." Contemporary Sociology: A Journal of Reviews 38, no. 5 (2009): 465–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/009430610903800552.

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34

Grudtsyna, Lyudmila Yu. "On the application of civil law to games and betting." Gosudarstvo i pravo, no. 7 (2020): 132. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s102694520010652-8.

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Fedel, Martina, and Tommaso Flaminio. "Non-reversible betting games on fuzzy events: Complexity and algebra." Fuzzy Sets and Systems 169, no. 1 (2011): 91–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2010.12.009.

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36

Davis, Justin, Andy Fodor, Luke McElfresh, and Kevin Krieger. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets." Journal of Prediction Markets 9, no. 1 (2015): 53–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v9i1.1014.

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Past research has provided evidence of hindsight bias in the NFL wagering market. Too much emphasis is placed on a team’s performance in the previous season when placing bets on NFL games during the first week (Week 1) of the season. Building on this contribution, our study extends the examination of hindsight bias in NFL gaming markets by focusing on how bettors consider the information provided by Week 1 performance when betting in Week 2. Our findings suggest multiple market inefficiencies in the NFL gambling market in Week 2, providing the opportunity for profitable betting strategies.

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Llorente, Loreto. "BETTING MARKET: Rank Dependent Expected Utility." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 1, no. 2 (2013): 147–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v1i2.515.

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In Pelota matches, games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, bets on the winner are made through a middleman who receives 16% of the finally paid amount. The classical decision theory of expected utility maximization can not explain this market assuming bettors are identical. Llorente and Aizpurua (2007) explain the existence of bets in the market under Quiggin’s rank dependent expected utility (RDEU) model. They find that bettors have to be optimistic in order to explain the existence of a bet. Analyzing the way odds are fixed in the market Llorente (2006) finds that assuming

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Bereznyak, Vasyl, and Violeta Rets. "Application of criminal law for illegal influence on the results of official sports competitions in the era of legalization of games." Naukovyy Visnyk Dnipropetrovs'kogo Derzhavnogo Universytetu Vnutrishnikh Sprav 4, no. 4 (2020): 218–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.31733/2078-3566-2020-4-218-224.

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The scientific article examines the issue of legal correctness of criminal law and certain rules of law, which regulates the prohibition of illegal influence on the results of official sports competitions, as well as a number of risks that may arise in connection with the legalization of gambling, including bookmaking (sports betting) as a derivative of gambling. Criminal law is constantly updated to meet the requirements of the time. The same applies to the ban on sports betting, which contains a number of features. This study analyzes the specific risks created by the legislator during the i

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Habibu, Nuriath A., Iramba F. Iramba, and Yusuph Kambuga. "Teachers’ Perception on Students Substance Use and School-Based Prevention Programmes in Tanzania." International Journal Papier Public Review 1, no. 2 (2020): 78–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.47667/ijppr.v1i2.46.

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The purpose of this paper was to determine the prevalence of sports betting among secondary school students in Tanzania. The study was conducted in the Dodoma region and covered four secondary schools in Dodoma City. The probability sampling procedure was used to select students randomly for everyone to have the chance of being involved. The judgmental sampling technique were used to collect information from the head of discipline units and class teachers, and simple random sampling was used to select both public and private secondary schools. The study administered questionnaires and intervie

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Coleman, B. Jay. "Team Travel Effects and the College Football Betting Market." Journal of Sports Economics 18, no. 4 (2015): 388–425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002515574514.

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This research examines whether the college football betting line and over/under accurately assimilate travel effects on visiting teams, including time zones traversed; direction and distance traveled; and temperature, elevation, and aridity changes. We investigate the market’s accuracy at predicting winners, point differentials, and points scored and examine its market efficiency, that is, whether travel affects the chance the home team covers the spread or the chance that an “over” bet wins. The betting market is found to be an inaccurate and inefficient processor of travel effects, most cons

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Habibu, Nuriath A., Iramba F. Iramba, and Yusuph Kambuga. "The Prevalence of Sports Betting in Tanzania Secondary School Students." Journal La Edusci 1, no. 3 (2020): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.37899/journallaedusci.v1i3.195.

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The purpose of this paper was to determine the prevalence of sports betting among secondary school students in Tanzania. The study was conducted in the Dodoma region and covered four secondary schools in Dodoma City. The probability sampling procedure was used to select students randomly for everyone to have the chance of being involved. The judgmental sampling technique were used to collect information from the head of discipline units and class teachers, and simple random sampling was used to select both public and private secondary schools. The study administered questionnaires and intervie

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Hitchcock, John M., Adewale Sekoni, and Hadi Shafei. "Polynomial-Time Random Oracles and Separating Complexity Classes." ACM Transactions on Computation Theory 13, no. 1 (2021): 11–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3434389.

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Bennett and Gill [1981] showed that P A ≠ NP A ≠ coNP A for a random oracle A , with probability 1. We investigate whether this result extends to individual polynomial-time random oracles. We consider two notions of random oracles: p-random oracles in the sense of martingales and resource-bounded measure [Lutz 1992; Ambos-Spies et al. 1997], and p-betting-game random oracles using the betting games generalization of resource-bounded measure [Buhrman et al. 2000]. Every p-betting-game random oracle is also p-random; whether the two notions are equivalent is an open problem. (1) We first show th

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Lackritz, Jim, Bruce A. Reinig A. Reinig, and Ira Horowitz. "OVER-VALUED AND UNDER-DOGGED: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SEEDING OF MID-MAJOR TEAMS IN THE NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 7, no. 1 (2013): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v7i1.626.

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We test whether the NCAA Selection Committee’s tournament seeding process is biased with respect to teams from the Mid-Major conferences, by analyzing Seeds, Spreads, Betting Lines, and the participants’ conference affiliations for the 819 games of the 13 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments played from 2000 to 2012. We demonstrate that the Selection Committee overvalues Mid-Major teams that receive a favorable seed and undervalues those that receive unfavorable seeds. Because Mid-Major teams receive more unfavorable seeds than favorable ones, by a nearly two-to-one ratio, the net results are to

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Fodor, Andy, Kevin Krieger, David Kirch David Kirch, and Andrew Kreutzer. "INFORMATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN NFL POINT SPREAD AND MONEYLINE MARKETS." Journal of Prediction Markets 6, no. 2 (2012): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v6i2.498.

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In this paper we test the efficiency of NFL betting markets by examining the ability of NFL point spread and moneyline markets to incorporate information. While bookmakers may properly evaluate available information when setting point spreads and moneylines, we show that the nature of point spread markets makes full information incorporation difficult. We test if information from the finer moneyline market can be used to predict whether favorites will cover the spread in the point spread market. We find that for games with the same point spread, betting on (against) the most (least) favored te

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Krieger, Kevin, Clay Girdner, Andy Fodor, and David Kirch. "THE POWER OF WAGERING ON POWER CONFERENCES." Journal of Prediction Markets 7, no. 1 (2013): 13–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v7i1.598.

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We study the perceived discrepancy between power conference and mid-major college football teams by examining outcomes of games when these teams face one another. We find that point spreads are set statistically irrationally in games where power conference teams play mid-major teams. We examine all regular season games from the 2002-2011 seasons and find power conference teams cover the spread in a majority of games when facing a mid-major team to an extent that results in profitability over a ten-year period. We find that consistently betting power conference teams will cover point spreads wh

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Paul, Rodney J., Andrew P. Weinbach, and Brad Humphreys. "REVISITING THE “HOT HAND” HYPOTHESIS IN THE NBA BETTING MARKET USING ACTUAL SPORTSBOOK BETTING PERCENTAGES ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 5, no. 2 (2013): 42–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v5i2.569.

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The “hot hand” hypothesis was first investigated in sports betting markets by Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993), who examined if professional basketball teams truly could become “hot”, implying a change in their actual skill level, and if the betting market believes teams become “hot” and over bet the teams on winning streaks. Both assumed that book makers operated a balanced book. Recent evidence suggests that book makers do not set point spreads to balance betting on either side of games. Book makers may price as a forecast or shade point spreads to exploit known biases. The “hot han

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Knowles, Glenn, Keith Sherony, and Mike Haupert. "The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis." American Economist 36, no. 2 (1992): 72–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/056943459203600210.

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The relationship between attendance at major league baseball games and the uncertainty of the outcome of each game is examined. We use an a priori measure of uncertainty in estimating the attendance equation. The variable is developed from the betting lines for individual games and measures the probability of a home team victory during the 1988 major league baseball season. The results indicate that uncertainty of outcome is a significant determinant of attendance for major league baseball. In addition, the results are used to determine the probability of a home team victory at which attendanc

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Thaler, Richard H., and William T. Ziemba. "Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries." Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, no. 2 (1988): 161–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.2.2.161.

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Economists have given great attention to stock markets in their efforts to test the concepts of market efficiency and rationality. Yet wagering markets are, in one key respect, better suited for testing market efficiency and rationality. The advantage of wagering markets is that each asset (bet) has a well-defined termination point at which its value becomes certain. The absence of this property is one of the factors that has made it so difficult to test for rationality in the stock market. Since a stock is infinitely lived, its value today depends both on the present value of future cash flow

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Chin, Daniel M. "A TEST OF UNBIASEDNESS AND SPORTS BOOK PROFITS IN THE NFL POINT SPREAD BETTING MARKET USING CIRCADIAN ADVANTAGE." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 5, no. 3 (2013): 15–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v5i3.571.

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Medical research shows that the human body typically performs at its best during late afternoon hours, and that the results of National Football League (NFL) games can partly be explained by differences in these levels of performance, coined the circadian advantage, when teams based in different time zones play against each other. This paper uses an augmented version of Dare and Holland’s (2004) generalized model to provide evidence that a circadian advantage bias exists in the NFL betting market. Detailed betting data used here supports results from Levitt (2004) and Paul and Weinbach (2007)

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Mallios, William. "ADAPTIVE DRIFT MODELING OF DYNAMIC COINTEGRATED TIME SERIES: APPLICATIONS IN FINANCIAL AND SPORTS GAMBLING MARKETS." Journal of Prediction Markets 4, no. 3 (2012): 59–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v4i3.480.

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Cointegrated time processes are viewed graphically in terms of candlestick charts in finance and sports and modeled dynamically in terms of adaptive drift procedures. Forecasts focus on active equity trading, betting against the bookmakers’ lines in sports and assessing trading/betting risks. Modeling premises are that (1) markets fluctuate between periods of efficiency and inefficiency and that (2) during inefficient periods, present and past disequilibria (shocks) have dynamic effects on subsequent price changes/game outcomes. Sports forecasting incorporates the added effects of the lines an

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