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Twomey, Paul. "Market efficiency of horse-race betting markets with applications to spread betting." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.483596.
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Windross, Allen J., University of Western Sydney, of Arts Education and Social Sciences College, and School of Humanities. "Betting by the Book." THESIS_CAESS_HUM_Windross_A.xml, 2002. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/432.
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'Betting by the Book' details the steps taken in, and results obtained from, an examination of the processes followed, especially in Australia, of those persons who bet on thoroughbred horseracing. The work briefly describes the evolution of the practice of this form of gambling and details the extent of the activity in the Australian nation. Note is made of the obvious limited amount of attention previously given to the topic by academia. Using illustrations of the extent of the complexity and resulting uncertainty of outcome in selecting winning horses the study finds that the consequential behaviour of almost all those who bet is the adoption of a co-ordinated process of selection commonly referred to as a system. As hypothesised the study found three major categories,viz., logical, naive and superstitious. Sub-types of the three categories, devised as a part of the study, are listed and defined. Unexpectedly the work brought to attention the finding that most bettors, even those following logical systems, will, at times, adopt superstitious practices. Examples are provided of logical, yet simple, selection systems that could be beneficially adopted by those persons who would otherwise follow naive and superstitious systems of selection. Finally the study notes the considerable opportunities that exist for the education of bettors.Master of Arts (Hons) (Gambling Studies)
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Windross, Allen J. "Betting by the Book." Thesis, View thesis View thesis, 2002. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/432.
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'Betting by the Book' details the steps taken in, and results obtained from, an examination of the processes followed, especially in Australia, of those persons who bet on thoroughbred horseracing. The work briefly describes the evolution of the practice of this form of gambling and details the extent of the activity in the Australian nation. Note is made of the obvious limited amount of attention previously given to the topic by academia. Using illustrations of the extent of the complexity and resulting uncertainty of outcome in selecting winning horses the study finds that the consequential behaviour of almost all those who bet is the adoption of a co-ordinated process of selection commonly referred to as a system. As hypothesised the study found three major categories,viz., logical, naive and superstitious. Sub-types of the three categories, devised as a part of the study, are listed and defined. Unexpectedly the work brought to attention the finding that most bettors, even those following logical systems, will, at times, adopt superstitious practices. Examples are provided of logical, yet simple, selection systems that could be beneficially adopted by those persons who would otherwise follow naive and superstitious systems of selection. Finally the study notes the considerable opportunities that exist for the education of bettors.
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Thaysen, Maren. "Sportwetten in Deutschland : zur rechtlichen Zulässigkeit des neuen Staatsmonopols und eines liberalisierten Sportwettenmarktes /." Baden-Baden (Ger.) : Nomos, 2009. http://d-nb.info/99392431X/04.
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Turton, Felix. "A study of inefficiency and arbitrage opportunity an empirical analysis of the fixed and demand-based betting market /." Diss., Connect to the thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10066/1457.
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Donnelly, James P. "NFL Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics to Test Market Efficiency and Build a Betting Model." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2013. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/721.
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The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account for the information provided by adjusted statistics? And, can this data be interpreted to create a profitable betting strategy? First, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is introduced and tested using these new variables. Then, a betting model is built and tested.
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Li, Tsz-ho Howard. "Betting complex 2000 : Yuen Long maxi centre /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1996. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B25948994.
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Altmann, Anton. "A statistical approach to sports betting." Thesis, City University London, 2004. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/8431/.
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While gambling on sports fixtures is a popular activity, for the majority of gamblers it is not a profitable one. In order to make a consistent profit through gambling, one of the requirements is the ability to assess accurate probabilities for the outcomes of the events upon which one wishes to place bets. Through experience of betting, familiarity with certain sports and a natural aptitude for estimating probabilities, a small number of gamblers are able to do this. This thesis also attempts to achieve this but through purely scientific means. There are three main areas covered in this thesis. These are the market for red and yellow cards in Premier League soccer, the market for scores in American football (NFL) and the market for scores in US Basketball (NBA). There are several issues that must be considered when attempting to fit a statistical model to any of these betting markets. These are introduced in the early stages of this thesis along with some previously suggested solutions. Among these, for example, is the importance of obtaining estimates of team characteristics that reflect the belief that these characteristics adjust over time. It is also important to devise measures of evaluating the successo f any model and to be able to comparet he predictive abilities of different models for the same market. A general method is described which is suitable for modelling the sporting markets that are featured in this thesis. This method is adapted from a previous study on UK soccer results and involves the maximisation of a likelihood function. In order to make predictions that have any chance of competing with the odds supplied by professional bookmakers, this modelling process must be expanded to reflect the idiosyncrasies of each sport. With the market for red and yellow cards in Premier League soccer matches, in addition to considering the characteristics of the two teams in the match, one must also consider the effect of the referee. It is also discovered that the average booking rate for Premier League soccer matches varies significantly throughout the course of a season. The unusual scoring system used in the NFL means that a histogram of the final scores for match results does not resemble any standard statistical distribution. There is also a wealth of data available for every NFL match besides the final score. It is worth investigating whether by exploiting this additional past data, more accurate predictions for future matches can be obtained. The analysis of basketball considers the busier schedule of games that NBA teams face, compared to NFL or Premier League soccer teams. The result of one match may plausibly be affected by the number of games that the team has had to play in the days immediately before the match. Furthermore, data is available giving the scores of the game at various stages throughout the match. By using this data, one can assess to what extent, and in which situations, the scoring rate varies during a match. These issues, among many others, are addressed during this thesis. In each case a model is devised and a betting strategy is simulated by comparing model predictions with odds that were supplied by professional bookmakers prior to fixtures. The limitations of each model are discussed and possible extensions of the analysis are suggested throughout.
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Li, Tsz-ho Howard, and 李子豪. "Betting complex 2000: Yuen Long maxicentre." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1996. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31982967.
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Zhang, Chi. "Economic analysis of horseracing betting markets." Thesis, University of York, 2017. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/17852/.
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This thesis presents both empirical and theoretical studies on horseracing betting markets. The first two chapters mainly deal with the insider trading problem in the betting markets based on the Shin model (1993) and its extension (Jullien and Salanié (1994)) by employing a novel data set from Yorkshire racecourses during the 2013-2014 racing season. Apart from measuring the incidence of insider trading, we empirically test market efficiency. Our result demonstrates that the degree of insider trading based on the original Shin measure is slightly lower than the calculation based on its extension. We also find no evidence to confirm that the market is strongly efficient. The next chapter studies price-determining factors that affect the starting prices in the racing markets by utilising a unique cross-sectional and time series data set. We find strong evidence to suggest that the winning potential, the age of the horse, the weight the horse carries and the distance of the race are very significant factors in explaining the starting prices. Our findings also confirm that the condition of the turf, the size of the racecourse and the classification of the race have influences on the price. In the last chapter, we propose a theoretical model of how betting odds are adjusted by bookmakers in betting markets. We introduce the optimal stopping techniques into the betting literature for the first time through a two-horse simple benchmark model with both informed and uninformed noise punters. Our main finding shows that increased fraction of informed traders will initially lift the loss per trade to the bookmaker, but after reaching a certain point the loss declines. We also find out that as the fraction of noise traders goes up, the loss is incurred to learn, but the learning process is less informative and the costs are the same, so the decision of changing the prices for each horse is taken sooner.
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Kohler, Daniel. "Betting against uncovered interest rate parity." kostenfrei, 2008. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/www/edis.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/3513.
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Hopf, Craig. "Exchange traded horserace betting fund with deterministic payoff – a mathematical analysis of a profitable deterministic horserace betting model." Thesis, Griffith University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366832.
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The horserace betting market is a subset of the financial market space, and wagering typically inherits a defined return – to – risk trade-off. For horserace betting input into institutional portfolio to be plausible, the payoff – to – risk trade-off from betting must be acceptable for the fund when compared with the return – risk trade-off from the existing mainstream assets included in portfolio investment.
A new paradigm for horserace betting modelling and investing is acclaimed in this thesis, as premiss for betting input into institutional portfolio. An exchange traded betting fund is developed in the thesis that is able to generate pre-race (and within-race) investment arbitrage that offers an acceptable, defined return – risk trade-off for the risk averse investor. The extensive former horserace betting market stochastic modelling theory that forecasts racer expected outcomes and payoff, is today succeeded by this research that develops a deterministic horserace betting model (and algorithm) that generates defined payoff for the fund. This deterministic betting model challenges the existing semi-strong efficient market hypothesis toward horserace betting that no betting strategy consistently outperforms the financial market’s benchmark return. Subsequently, the primary research (alternative) hypothesis tested is H_a: profitable exchange traded horserace betting fund with deterministic payoff exists for acceptable institutional portfolio investment.Thesis (Masters)
Master of Philosophy (MPhil)
Griffith School of Environment
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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zhong, Liang. "Betting on Volatility: A Delta Hedging Approach." Thesis, KTH, Matematik (Avd.), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33431.
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Brown, Alasdair. "Essays on the economics of betting markets." Thesis, SOAS, University of London, 2012. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/13594/.
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Kincaid, Andrew. "Online betting services : a UK consumer perspective." Thesis, Ulster University, 2014. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.650093.
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This thesis details the macro-level, micro-level and nano-level investigation of factors affecting the acceptance, adoption and diffusion of online betting technologies in the UK market. The research is positioned to explore the usage of these technologies, pertinent drivers and inhibitors, and key factors influencing bettor behaviour. Given the rapid development of key emergent technologies, the current knowledge base is theoretically and contextually deficient in the understanding of how and why these technologies are accepted, adopted and diffuse. Built upon the Social Construction of Technology philosophy, technological and social factors are explored. Consequently, key theoretical components are drawn upon; behavioural intention concepts of Technology Acceptance and Innovation Diffusion. Methodologically, a three-phase, sequential, mixed methods approach is taken. The challenges of researching this hidden population are addressed through sampling and distribution conducted purely online; contributing to the internet research field . Initial quantitative scoping is conducted through an online survey instrument. Qualitative exploration and explanation of emerging themes is conducted though semi-structured email interviews. Operating at the nano-Ievel, a novel e-projectives technique provides further exploration and explanation of salient themes. The e-projectives instrument furthers social sciences research theory as this innovative technique is translated and applied in a digital context. Through confirmation, disconfirmation and extension of knowledge, theoretical and contextual contributions are made to the key areas of; online consumer behaviour, e-commerce and Information Systems. Knowledge is added in the area of consumer behaviour and e-commerce through exploration of online bettor behaviours and the accepted digital delivery of betting services. Online bettors are found to utilise numerous technologies to provide a 'grand solution' with online betting services enhancing the speed, ease and control of betting. Primary drivers identified are; ease of use, ease of contact, reliability and safety. Trust and assurances are primary inhibitors. Operational advantage, Proficiency Development and Service Performance are key influences in online bettor behaviour. Philosophically, SCOT is supported through the identified interplay between social and technological factors. IS theory is advanced with support for the amalgamation of technology acceptance and innovation diffusion theories, and addition of contextual aspects. Finally, a number of practical recommendations are forwarded for key stakeholders.
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Nascimento, Felipe Merlo. "Betting against beta no mercado acionário brasileiro." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18817.
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In this paper, we present empirical evidence to investigate whether the propositions of the model of Frazzini and Pedersen (2014) apply to the Brazilian stock market. Using data from the year 2000 up to the first quarter of 2017, we find that the SML of this Market had a lower slope than that predicted by CAPM. In fact, it turned out to be negative, and this result was observed both in the time-series and in the cross-sectional analyzes. As a methodology to raise this evidence, 10 portfolios were created, organized in ascending order according to their respective betas. We calculated the returns relative to each portfolio and, with them, it was possible to verify that the portfolios with the highest beta performed less excess returns. In addition, we found that the Sharpe ratio was higher the lower the beta of the portfolios. Another proposition verified empirically in the Brazilian stock market, and in the considered period, was that the return of the BAB portfolios was positive. In addition, it was the largest one compared to others portfolios, and had the highest expected excess of return per unit of risk. Regarding the alpha, it was expected that the portfolios with higher beta had lower alpha. It was possible to verify this trend, but not in an undeniable way. This motivated us to make a small change in the model of Frazzini and Pedersen, which created a relation between the return of each one of the portfolios and the one of the BAB portfolio. The mathematical prediction, derived from the modified model, says that the coefficient of this relation is smaller the bigger the beta. It was possible to raise this empirical evidence in a clear way. This point was the great differential of this work, since we were the first to raise such evidence and to show that the BAB portfolios can be used as explanatory variable.
Neste trabalho, levantamos evidencias empíricas para investigar se as proposições do modelo de Frazzini e Pedersen (2014) se aplicam ao mercado acionário brasileiro. Utilizando dados que retomam o ano de 2000 até o primeiro trimestre de 2017, verificamos que a SML deste mercado é menos inclinada que a prevista pelo CAPM. De fato, ela chegou a ser negativa, sendo este resultado observado tanto nas analises em séries de tempo quanto nas em corte transversal. Como metodologia para levantar estas evidencias, foram criadas 10 carteiras, organizadas em ordem crescente segundo seus respectivos betas. Calculamos os retornos relativos a cada carteira e, com eles, foi possível verificar que os portfolios com maior beta realizaram menor retorno em excesso. Além disso, verificamos que o índice de Sharpe foi maior quanto menor foi o beta das carteiras. Outra proposição verificada empiricamente no mercado acionário brasileiro, e no período considerado, foi que o retorno das carteiras BAB foi positivo. Além disso, foi o maior entre todas as carteiras, ficando inclusive com o maior retorno esperado em excesso por unidade de risco. No que tange ao alfa, era esperado que as carteiras com maior beta tivessem menor alfa. Foi possível verificar esta tendência, mas não de maneira incontestável. Isso nos motivou a fazer uma pequena alteração no modelo de Frazzini e Pedersen, a qual criou uma relação entre o retorno de cada uma das carteiras e o da carteira BAB. A previsão matemática, oriunda do modelo modificado, diz que o coeficiente desta relação é menor quanto maior for o beta. Foi possível levantar esta evidencia empírica de maneira clara. Este ponto foi o grande diferencial deste trabalho, uma vez que fomos os primeiros a levantar tal evidencia e a mostrar que as carteiras BAB podem ser utilizadas como variável explicativa.
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Janeta, Zdeněk. "Strategie podnikatelského subjektu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-71893.
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The thesis describing Strategy of business unit is divided into three parts. First theoretical part summarizes strategic management together with strategic analysis, consisting of external and internal part. Second part describes operations on betting market, contemporary Czech market, its development and actual services offered. Last part analyses the strategy of Tipsport Company. It contains basic characteristic of the company followed by development of individual parts of business strategy such as SWOT and PEST analysis and marketing strategy.
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Becerra, Heraud Silvia. "Healthy universities: betting on an integral student formation." Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2013. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/99619.
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This paper presents the proposal of healthy universities as an approach to health promotion feasible and necessary to work in higher education institutions. It exposes its definition and basic features, the steps to facilitate proper implementation and a historical review about the existing projects in universities of America and Europe. In Peru, there are several initiatives,among which the work of the Consortium of Universities and currently the start of thePUCP Healthy Program at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru. Finally, it is done abrief review of the work implemented to date by this program.Se presenta la propuesta de universidades saludables como un enfoque de promoción de la salud viable y necesario a trabajar en las instituciones de educación superior. Se expone su definición y características básicas, los pasos necesarios para facilitar su implementación adecuada y una reseña histórica acerca de los proyectos existentes en universidades de América y Europa. En el Perú existen varias iniciativas, entre las que destaca el trabajo realizado por el Consorcio de Universidades y, actualmente, el inicio del programa PUCP Saludable en la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Finalmente, se realiza una reseña sobre el trabajo realizado a la fecha por este programa.
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Chen, Weiyun, Xin Li, and Daniel Zeng. "Modelling Fixed Odds Betting for Future Event Prediction." SOC INFORM MANAGE-MIS RES CENT, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/625249.
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Prediction markets provide a promising approach for future event prediction. Most existing prediction market approaches are based on auction mechanisms. Despite their theoretical appeal and success in various application settings, these mechanisms suffer from several major drawbacks. First, opinions from experts and amateurs are treated equally. Second, continuous attention from participants is assumed. Third, such mechanisms are subject to various forms of market manipulation. To alleviate these limitations, we propose to employ the classic fixed odds betting as an alternative prediction market mechanism. We build a structural model based on a belief-decision framework as the event probability estimator. This belief-decision framework models bettors' beliefs with mixed beta distributions and bettors' decisions with prospect theory. A maximum likelihood approach is applied to estimate the model parameters. We conducted experiments on three real-world betting datasets to evaluate our proposed approach. Experimental results show that fixed odds betting based prediction outperforms the reduced form models based on odds and betting results, and achieves a comparable performance with auction-based prediction markets. The results suggest the possibility of employing fixed odds betting as a prediction market in a variety of application contexts where the assumptions made by auction-based approaches do not hold.
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Kharrat, Tarak. "A journey across football modelling with application to algorithmic trading." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/a-journey-across-football-modelling-with-application-to-algorithmic-trading(e57619b6-8f41-4cdb-878f-4f0c23f7e165).html.
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In this thesis we study the problem of forecasting the final score of a football match before the game kicks off (pre-match) and show how the derived models can be used to make profit in an algorithmic trading (betting) strategy. The thesis consists of two main parts. The first part discusses the database and a new class of counting processes. The second part describes the football forecasting models. The data part discusses the details of the design, specification and data collection of a comprehensive database containing extensive information on match results and events, players' skills and attributes and betting market prices. The database was created using state of the art web-scraping, text-processing and data-mining techniques. At the time of writing, we have collected data on all games played in the five major European leagues since the 2009-2010 season and on more than 7000 players. The statistical modelling part discusses forecasting models based on a new generation of counting process with flexible inter-arrival time distributions. Several different methods for fast computation of the associated probabilities are derived and compared. The proposed algorithms are implemented in a contributed R package Countr available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network. One of these flexible count distributions, the Weibull count distribution, was used to derive our first forecasting model. Its predictive ability is compared to the models previously suggested in the literature and tested in an algorithmic trading (betting) strategy. The model developed has been shown to perform rather well compared to its competitors. Our second forecasting model uses the same statistical distribution but models the attack and defence strengths of each team at the players level rather than at a team level, as is systematically done in the literature. For this model we make heavy use of the data on the players' attributes discussed in the data part of the thesis. Not only does this model turn out to have a higher predictive power but it also allows us to answer important questions about the 'nature of the game' such as the contribution of the full-backs to the attacking efforts or where would a new team finish in the Premier League.
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Fang, Nan [Verfasser], and Wolfgang [Akademischer Betreuer] Merkle. "Restricted Coding and Betting / Nan Fang ; Betreuer: Wolfgang Merkle." Heidelberg : Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1193347386/34.
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DiFilippo, Michael D. "Early Season Inefficiencies in the NFL Sports Betting Market." Ohio University Honors Tutorial College / OhioLINK, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors1340067110.
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Jottreau, Benoît. "Financial models and price formation : applications to sport betting." Thesis, Paris Est, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009PEST1031.
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Cette thèse est composée de quatre chapitres. Le premier chapitre traite de l'évaluation de produits financiers dans un modèle comportant un saut pour l'actif risque. Ce saut représente la faillite de l'entreprise correspondante. On étudie alors l'évaluation des prix d'options par indifférence d'utilité dans un cadre d'utilité exponentielle. Par des techniques de programmation dynamique on montre que le prix d'un Bond est solution d'une équation différentielle et le prix d'options dépendantes de l'actif est solution d'une équation aux dérives partielles d'Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman. Le saut dans la dynamique de l'actif risque induit des différences avec le modèle de Merton que nous tentons de quantifier. Le second chapitre traite d'un marché comportant des sauts : les paris sur le football. Nous rappelons les différentes familles de modèles pour un match de football et introduisons un modèle complet permettant d'évaluer les prix des différents produits apparus sur ce marché ces dix dernières années. La complexité de ce modèle nous amène à étudier un modèle simplifié dont nous étudions les implications et calculons les prix obtenus que l'on compare à la réalité. On remarque que la calibration implicite obtenue génère de très bons résultats en produisant des prix très proches de la réalité. Le troisième chapitre développe le problème de fixation des prix par un teneur de marche monopolistique dans le marché des paris binaires. Ce travail est un prolongement direct au problème introduit par Levitt [Lev04]. Nous généralisons en effet son travail aux cas des paris européens et proposons une méthode pour estimer la méthode de cotation utilisée par le book-maker. Nous montrons que deux hypothèses inextricables peuvent expliquer cette fixation des prix. D'une part, l'incertitude du public sur la vraie valeur ainsi que le caractère extrêmement risque-averse du bookmaker. Le quatrième chapitre prolonge quant à lui cette approche au cas de produits financiers non binaires. Nous examinons différents modèles d'offre et de demande et en déduisons, par des techniques de programmation dynamique, des équations aux dérivées partielles dictant la formation des prix d'achat et de vente. Nous montrons finalement que l'écart entre prix d'achat et prix de vente ne dépend pas de la position du teneur de marche dans l'actif considère. Cependant le prix moyen dépend lui fortement de la quantité détenue par le teneur de marche. Une approche simplifiée est finalement proposée dans le cas multidimensionnelThis thesis is composed of four chapters. The first one deals with the pricing of financial products in a single jump model for the risky asset. This jump represents the bankrupcy of the quoted firm. We study the pricing of derivatives in the context of indifference of utility with an exponential utility. By means of dynamic programming we show that the bond price is solution of an ordinary differential equation and that stock price dependent options are solutions of an equation with partial derivatives of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman type generalizing the Black-Scholes one. We then try to quantify differences in the price obtained here and the one from Merton model without jump. The second chapter deals with a specific jump market : the soccer betting market. We recall the different model families for a soccer match and introduce some full model which allows to price the products recently born in this market in last ten years. Nevertheless the model complexity leads us to study a simplified model introduced by Dixon and Robinson from which we are able to derive closed formulas and simulate prices that we compare to market prices. We remark that implicit calibration gives pretty goof fit of market data. Third chapter developps the approach of Levitt [Lev04] on price formation in binary betting market held by a monopolistic market-maker operating in a one time step trading. We generalize Levitt results with european format of betting. We show that prices are distorded on the pressure of demand and offer, that phenomena introducing a market probability that allows to price products under this new measure. We identify some best model for demand and offer and market maker strategy and show that probability change is obvious in case of imperfect information about the value of the product. Fourth chapter generalizes this approach to the case of general payoffs and continuous time. The task is more complex and we just derive partial derivative equations from dynamic programming that enable us to give the bid-ask prices of the product traded by the market-maker. One result is that, in most models, bid-ask spread does not depend on the inventory held by the dealer whereas mid-quote price strongly reflects the unbalance of the dealer
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Spinosa, Charles L. "Testing the Efficiency of the NFL Point Spread Betting Market." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2014. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/986.
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This paper examines the efficiency of pricing in the NFL point spread betting market, as hypothesized by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, through both statistical and economic tests. This market provides a simpler framework to test such economic hypotheses than conventional financial markets. Using a larger sample size than past literature, this paper finds that while the market is efficient in the aggregate sense, there are still some profit opportunities which imply pricing inefficiencies.
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Bernier, Christophe. "Forecasting Real-Time Win Probability in NHL Games." Thesis, Boston College, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:108029.
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Thesis advisor: Christopher MaxwellUncertainty is a key part of any sports game; without it, there is little reason to be interested in the outcome. This thesis attempts to quantify the uncertainty inherent in NHL hockey games by building a real-time win probability model that estimates both teams’ likelihood of winning based on what has happened in the game so far. The model is built using historical data from the 2009-2010 season all the way to the 2016-2017 season. Given the differential and the time left, the model evaluates historical data for that specific game-state and calculates a win probability. The model also uses a multi-regression approach to incorporate pre-game Vegas odds as a way to factor the strength of both teams; to my knowledge, this is the first publicly available hockey win probability model to do so. Finally, the model also factors in elements unique to the sport of hockey, like power plays and shootout periods
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2018
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Departmental Honors
Discipline: Economics
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Šedý, Petr. "Investiční činnost na asijském trhu se sportovními událostmi." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-150027.
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This thesis was written in order to introduce relatively unknown investment activity. It shows basic principles of value betting and investment technique called "Asian handicap" which is used by the most of successful investors. These activities take place on Asian markets, that is why I describe processes and rules which are used there. The reader will be shown how professional analyst calculates his own fair odds. This is very important for his decision-making about investments. The practical part of the thesis covers activities of analysts during short (one week) and long (one year) period. Everything was registered, commented and put into context with theoretical facts. Results were evaluated too. This thesis offers different view on the activity which changed from pure gamble into new investment option.
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Cantinotti, Michael. "Can gamblers beat randomness? : an experimental study on sport betting." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2002. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=766575321&sid=17&Fmt=2&clientId=9268&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Moore, Lindsay Patricia. "Improvisatory city performance and relational art : Vancouver, Crawling, Weeping, Betting." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/54698.
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This analysis of the performance and installation project Vancouver, Crawling, Weeping, Betting (2014) is a case study of improvisation and creativity in environmentally engaged relational art. I argue for the politically transformative possibility inherent in the unfolding of material-semiotic and affective relations of improvised performance events. VCWB uses stories and bodies to engage historical colonial power and the structures that give form to our experiences of urban cultural geographies. Focusing on the centrality of the body to creativity (and drawing on Manning 2009), I connect participatory performance in the city to the Deleuzian notion of a body-becoming; a sensing, moving, and thinking body that is always in a process of re-identification and re-articulation in reciprocal relation with the environment.
Central to VCWB’s form of improvisatory relational art are concepts of generosity and co-responsibility, which are used to create caring reciprocal relations between performer-participants and the environment. I argue VCWB prompts and sustains a relation of antagonism (following Bishop 2004) in its experimental performances. A multiplicity of historical affective associations and encounters with landscape, presented in narrative and other works, challenge participants to confront difference, dislocation, and uncertainty, producing movement and ‘dialogue.’ I use the term spaces of possibility to describe relations in which frictions become creative taking-off points for movement and thought. VCWB street performances highlight the antagonism and possibility that is inevitable to unpredictable encounter in a lively world.
VCWB’s particular form of art making is processual, generative, and its affects proliferative. In using the example of VCWB’s non-representational mapmaking I expand the scope of improvised performance in the city to consider how gatherings in moments recompose places in novel material-semiotic and affective relations.Arts, Faculty of
Anthropology, Department of
Graduate
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張欣榮 and Yan-wing Cheung. "Culture and cognition: horserace betting and punters in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2002. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31225810.
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Turner, David N. "The social organisation of off-course betting : an ethnographic perspective." Thesis, University of South Wales, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.265463.
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Noon, Edmund. "Extending Kelly staking strategies to peer-to-peer betting exchanges." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/23919.
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In his seminal paper J.L. Kelly Jr. linked information theory with a staking system for calculating the stake of a favourable bet. Kelly's system is elegant, and under certain conditions can be said to be optimal. In the fifty years since, his ideas have been extended to financial markets, with much success. There have been fewer such extensions to betting. In many countries gambling has been liberalised and the range of bets available has increased markedly. One recent innovation has made a particular impact, i.e. the introduction of peer-to-peer betting exchanges. Betting exchanges allow their members to place bets with each other, behaving as bookmakers, something Kelly did not consider. This and the Internet have increased the number of bets available on a given event. These are often highly correlated. We extend Kelly's method to incorporate lay bets; and we do so analytically. We extend this numerically to incorporate highly correlated bets and commission, another feature unique to exchanges. We further extend this solution to include bets previously placed, making possible a profit before the match has started. Whilst extending the optimal solution to cover new situations we make use of the increase in data available to examine the applicability of the original assumptions. We run Monte-Carlo simulations to show when these assumptions are likely to fail. One of the features of betting exchanges is the ability to increase or reduce the bet size as the odds change over time. We examine the optimal bets to add to an existing portfolio of bets if the odds have changed. We briefly consider changes in the modelled probabilities. Finally, we suggest a novel way of reversing Kelly's strategy to provide a market making strategy, even when there is some uncertainty in where the market prices should be. However we also show that if that uncertainty is too great such a strategy is unlikely to be profitable.
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Ó, Briain Tomás. "Learning and loss aversion : evidence from a financial betting market." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/25967.
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This research is motivated by a number of open questions in the behavioural finance literature. Firstly, if investors do not learn in a rational Bayesian manner but rather suffer from biases set out in the naïve reinforcement hypothesis, rationality assumptions in individual preference models may not hold. I use a unique longitudinal dataset comprising in excess of 1.5 million fixed-odds financial bets, where bettors perform identical, consecutive decisions which mimic financial choices made in a laboratory, but the use of their own funds departs from the artificiality of an experiment. I present evidence of unwarranted overconfidence generated by reinforcement learning in both real and simulated markets. Secondly, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) state that losses loom larger than gains. I examine whether the disposition to avoid losses is driving behaviour in the losing domain in the dataset and conclude that there is little evidence of loss aversion. I differentiate between betting on Financial Markets, in which agents may perceive an internal locus of control, and betting on the simulated market, where results are uncorrelated and in which the emotions of regret and disappointment may not loom as large. Finally, Odean (1998) provides evidence that investors readily realise paper gains by selling their winning stocks, yet hold on to their losing stocks too long. This loss aversion is consistent with Kahneman and Tversky (1979) prospect theory, however, how long would the investor hold on to a stock that is losing value on a day-to-day basis? Conversely, would an investor rush to sell a stock that has yielded positive returns in each month during the past year? I test the interaction between learning and loss aversion in a financial betting experiment in which two treatment groups are subjected to consecutive gains or losses.
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Viirret, J. (Jari). "Betting against beta with conditional modeling in Belgium stock market." Master's thesis, University of Oulu, 2017. http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-201701121052.
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Background and objectives: CAPM implies that there should exists positive relation between the returns’ and betas’ of the stocks and this relation should be equal to size of market risk premium. However empirical research has found that this relationship is too flat or even completely flat. Low beta stocks perform better and high beta stocks perform worse, than expected according their beta. To measure performance difference there has been created betting against beta (BAB) factor, which goes long to low beta stocks and shorts high beta stocks and positions are levered to have neutral market position. It has been shown that this factor generates positive four factor risk adjusted returns in USA market and in numerous international markets. BAB factors risk adjusted returns have been one the highest in Belgium stock market.
This study checks can unconditional or conditional asset pricing models with time varying betas explain returns related to BAB factor in Belgium stock market. It is also investigated how the factor exposures of BAB factor vary over time and different market conditions. Further it is checked can investor achieve statistically significant alpha in five year time interval by tilting his portfolio towards BAB factor in Belgium stock market.
Data and methodology: It is used daily and monthly factor return data from Belgium stock market from July 1990 to December 2015. Data is achieved from AQR Capital Management’s database. BAB returns are investigated through basic static factor regression models. To capture time variance on the factor exposure there is generated conditional factor models for BAB returns using smoothed Kalman filter. Also BAB returns varying exposures and alphas are checked through rolling regression with 5 year time window.
Results: Unconditional or conditional regression models can’t explain returns of BAB factor in Belgium stock market. In all broad sample regressions there exists statistically significant alpha. Adding momentum to three factor model cuts down alpha, but still statistically significant part of the returns are unexplained by the four factor model. In bear market times alpha related to BAB factor decreases substantially. BAB factor has negative market exposure most of the time. Overall BAB has positive exposure to momentum factor, which goes extremely strong in bear market times, but in bull markets this exposure vanishes. Overall BAB factor’s factor exposures get stronger in bear market times, except with size factor. Rolling regressions show that investor can rarely achieve statistically significant risk adjusted returns with 5 year investment horizon by tilting his portfolio towards BAB factor. Tilting portfolio towards BAB factor neither penalizes the investor in the unique way in the bad times.
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Cheung, Yan-wing. "Culture and cognition : horserace betting and punters in Hong Kong /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2002. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B24872933.
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Bretag, Hilary. "Corruption in Evidence: Policing Starting- Price Betting in 1930s NSW." Thesis, Department of History, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/10259.
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This thesis analyses two Royal Commissions into the policing of SP bookmaking that the NSW government issued in 1936 and 1937. These Commissions provide a window into the social history of betting and policing, as well as the relationship between two groups whose activities placed them so directly in each other’s paths. The Royal Commissions also reflect the politics of betting and policing contemporaneous to them. The inquiries are symptomatic of deeper-rooted public concerns about off-course betting, and represent a poorly articulated, but publically supported disapproval of police tactics. I find that these Commissions are suggestive of lower-level police complicity in off-course betting and that senior police were at least tacitly complicit in their activities. Moreover, I explore why it was that in face of such overwhelming evidence the Inquiry’s Commissioner was reluctant to find conclusively that the evidence demonstrated police corruption.
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Helin, Klas, and Helmer Hernegran. "Marknadsföring med branschen som insats : En studie om svenska spelbolags marknadsföring - ur ett konsumentperspektiv." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-38396.
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I följande uppsats undersöks den svenska spelbolagsmarknaden och dess marknadsföring. Tyngdpunkten ligger på att undersöka hur konsumenternas attityd till de svenska spelbolagens marknadsföring ser ut och vad som ligger till grund för denna attityd. I uppsatsen används tre olika metoder för att ge en så tydlig bild av ämnet som möjligt. Metoderna som används är enkäter och intervjuer med konsumenter, samt systematisk observation av de sex spelbolag med högst marknadsföringskostnader 2018. Enkäten genomfördes digitalt med syftet att skapa en bild av konsumenternas åsikter kring ämnet och gav 104 svar. Tre stycken intervjuer med konsumenter gjordes via telefon för att skapa en djupare förståelse kring konsumenternas åsikter och observationer genomfördes av de utvalda spelbolagens marknadsföring via TV och digitala kanaler, såsom sociala medier och deras egna hemsidor, för att skapa en mer objektiv bild av hur spelbolagen faktiskt arbetar med sin marknadsföring. Ett teoretiskt ramverk används i studien baserat på teorier inom marknadsföring, konsumentbeteende samt konsumentupplevelse. Teorierna används för att forma enkät- och intervjufrågor, skapa observationsscheman samt för att kunna genomföra grundliga analyser av empirin. Sammanfattningsvis visade resultatet av studien att det går att se differentiering mellan spelbolagen, främst mellan betting- och casinobolag, samt att bland annat mängden marknadsföring som konsumenter utsätts för påverkar bilden av spelbolagens marknadsföring till det negativa.In the following study the Swedish betting- and gambling industry and the companies’ marketing is being investigated. The main focus is exploring how the customers attitude is towards the Swedish betting- and gambling companies and their marketing, and what the foundation of the customers attitude is based on. For the study three different methods were used to give the best picture possible of the subject. The methods that were used were surveys and interviews with the customers and systematic observations of the six companies with the highest marketing costs for 2018. The survey was done digitally, and received 104 answers, with the purpose of creating a view of the customers’ opinions. Three interviews with customers were made by phone to create a deeper understanding for the customers’ opinions, and observations of the selected betting- and gambling companies’ marketing by TV and digital channels, like social medias and their own internet pages, were made to create a more objective image of how the companies actually work with their marketing. A theoretical framework is being used in the study, based on theories in marketing, customer behavior and customer experience. The theories were used to create questions for the survey and interviews, to create observation schemes, and to be able to make a thorough analysis of the gathered empirical data. To summarize, the result of the study shows that there is some differentiation through the marketing between the companies, primarily between betting and casino companies, and that the amount of marketing that the consumers are exposed to, amongst other factors, affects their attitude against the betting- and gambling companies to the negative.
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Turner, Wesley. "SLOTZ: A Game-Based Measure of Problem Gambling." Thesis, Griffith University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/380999.
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The last decade has seen a marked increase in gambling availability and participation. This increase is in part due to a rapid proliferation in digital platforms of gambling delivery, including online betting and smartphone betting applications. In turn, this rise in gambling availability and participation has led to an increase in the prevalence of gambling-related issues. This is particularly concerning, as relatively few problem gamblers ever engage in treatment, despite experiencing substantial psychological and social impairment as a result of their gambling. Difficulties with engagement are likely to stem from the many barriers problem gamblers face when seeking treatment, including financial issues, stigma, embarrassment and shame. Successful utilisation of digital technologies may help overcome barriers often faced by more traditional face-to-face mental health assessments and interventions, with these novel forms of digital delivery being potentially better suited to fostering user engagement, motivation and retention in mental health assessments and interventions.
To date, virtual reality technologies present as one the most efficacious forms of digital mental health assessments and interventions, providing a range of interactive systems, environments and mechanisms by which mental health assessment and intervention can be enacted. Review of the literature and meta-analysis, as reported in Chapter 3, supported the efficacy of virtual reality-based interventions, though issues regarding methodological rigour remain. Yet despite the promise of virtual reality-based assessments and interventions, their development and implementation has been sluggish. For this reason, there appears to be a need to explore the utility of alternative digital delivery platforms.
Video games provide a more readily-accessible, cost-effective digital delivery platform for mental health assessment and intervention. Mental health video games aim to make the processes of change and learning more meaningful and engaging. As is reported in Chapter 4, review of the literature revealed that mental health video game assessments and interventions have successfully been investigated in the assessment and treatment of a number of populations and presentations. Moreover, it was observed that mental health video games may pose a particularly useful platform for engaging hard-to-reach populations such as problem gamblers, engaging users emotionally, capturing their attention and promoting continuing engagement. However, it was concluded that the lack of empirically supported theory, methodological rigour and psychometric validation in the literature makes it difficult to draw overall conclusions regarding the efficacy and utility of mental health video games. It was determined that there remains a need in the literature for robust examples of the development and implementation of empirically driven, well-validated mental health video games.
The overall aim of this thesis was to explore the role digital technologies can play in the development and delivery of mental health assessment and intervention, with particular focus placed upon the area of problem gambling. To this end, a novel mental health video game assessment of problem gambling was developed (SLOTZ). Game play was developed in accordance with game design and gambling-related neuropsychological theory. Initial conceptualization, development, piloting and the first iteration of revision and refinement of SLOTZ game play is described over the course of Chapter 5 and Chapter 6. Levels of immersion and engagement were found to be high, with participants observed to find SLOTZ game engaging and enjoyable. Two SLOTZ sub-tests were observed to significantly correlate with established measures of gambling severity and to demonstrate an ability to significantly predict gambling severity in participants. Implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed in Chapter 7 and Chapter 8.
Overall, findings from this thesis provide evidence that problem gambling can be identified and predicted via video game play. SLOTZ presents as an economical, engaging, enjoyable, and psychometrically validated means of problem gambling assessment that is likely to be wide-in-reach and less psychological, socially and financially aversive to populations who are historically difficulty to engage. Moreover, this thesis provides a sound example of the process of empirically testing digital mental health video assessments and interventions via a multi-step iterative process of pilot testing and refinement, demonstrating the utility of video games in mental health assessment and interventions.Thesis (Professional Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy in Clinical Psychology (PhD ClinPsych)
School of Applied Psychology
Griffith Health
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Demir, Ender <1981>. "Three essays on sports economics." Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/1247.
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In the first paper, I explore the behavioral pattern of bettors on their betting choices for draws by using the FIFA 2010 World Cup data collected from Turkish fixed odds betting market. Data shows that there is a draw bias among bettors as they prefer to bet mostly on win of a side. Experiments indicate that the draw bias can be explained by the preferences rather than the probabilistic judgment. The second paper considers the game-related performance of two listed soccer clubs of Italy namely Roma and Lazio. I introduce the performance of arch-rival in the analysis. When club supporters are experiencing the negative performance of their team, the news coming from the arch-rival results can change their investment decisions. The third paper implements the Fibonacci sequence on draws as a betting rule. As the odds offered by bookmakers are narrowly distributed, implementing the Fibonacci strategy for 8 soccer leagues of Europe for 4 seasons yields positive return for all cases.Nel primo saggio, analizzo il comportamento e le scelte degli scommettitori Turchi riguardo le partite della Coppa del Mondo di Calcio 2010. L'analisi dimostra che vi è una distorsione nei riguardi dei pareggi, dato che gli scommettitori preferiscono scommettere sulla vittoria di una delle due squadre. E' stato condotto anche un esperimento che mostra che questo comportamento può essere spiegato dalle preferenze degli scommettitori piuttosto che dai loro giudizi di probabilità. Il secondo saggio analizza l'impatto die risultati delle partite sulle performance dei titoli azionari di due club quotati, Roma e Lazio. Nell'analisi introduco l'impatto che la performance del club rivale ha sui titoli della società. Quando una squadra perde la performance della rivale influenza la reazione del mercato azionario alla sconfitta. Il terzo saggio applica la successione di Fibonacci alle scommesse sui pareggi. Poiché le quote sui pareggi sono piuttosto stabili, in tutti i casi esaminati l'applicazione della strategia avrebbe portato a un rendimento positivo.
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Flowerdew, Tom. "Methods for the identification and optimal exploitation of profitable betting scenarios." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2016. http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/80398/.
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This thesis tackles the issue of how gamblers can profit from betting on the outcome of sporting events. In particular, it addresses issues which have arisen in recent years concerning both the inception of betting exchanges, and the technique of building complex statistical models to accurately predict the sporting outcomes. This thesis shows that bias in predictive models can be quantified from a collection of model outputs. It is shown that a Bayesian method can be constructed to derive accurate bias estimates, even when the model outputs are merely a collection of independent Bernoulli trials. In addition, the method is expanded, to allow the quantification of a time-varying bias, as long as it changes in a known, deterministic setting. The utility of this method is demonstrated via the correction of a simple football prediction model. The movements seen in betting markets before the event in question occurs are investigated. It is conjectured that the rate of increase of the amount of capital invested in the betting market is central to understanding other market movements. With this in mind, two approaches are derived, which both use a collection of historic market movements for past events for their predictions. It is shown that in many cases, some mix of the two approaches achieves the most accurate forecasts. A new gambling strategy, dubbed consolidated wagering is introduced. It is demonstrated that consolidated wagering outperforms all other candidate methods when considering string bets (multiple bets on the same event, at different odds). The application of these methods to investing in restricted markets in betting exchanges is demonstrated. Finally, the problem of string wagers under uncertainty is explored.
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Mikulka, Jakub. "Playing Lotteries and Betting on Sporting Events: A Behavioral Economics Perspective." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-197086.
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This thesis deals with the relationship between mood and behavior of bettors using a dataset provided by a betting company, Chance a.s., which operates in the Czech Republic. We consider three types of proxies for the mood: weather in regions, sport successes and the results of elections, and we build a fixed effect model to estimate the effect of mood on betting behavior. We provide strong evidence that the weather proxy has a significant effect on daily turnovers of the betting company and there also seems to be an effect of sport optimism. On the contrary, we failed to find any impact of elections. The results show that better mood tend to discourage clients from sports and lottery betting which is consistent with the increase in risk aversion or the depletion of a common self-control resource due to active mood regulation attempts. Additionally, we provide an evidence that the intra-month cycle in turnovers corresponds to liquidity constraint of bettors which disproves the permanent income hypothesis.
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Windross, Allen J. "Betting by the book : A study of systems adopted by bettors /." View thesis View thesis, 2002. http://library.uws.edu.au/adt-NUWS/public/adt-NUWS20030331.104549/index.html.
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Thesis (M.A.Hons.) -- University of Western Sydney, [2002]."A thesis submitted to the University of Western Sydney to fulfil the requirements for the award of the degree of Master of Arts (Honours) Gambling Studies " Bibliography: leaves 277-290.
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Cortis, Dominic. "Betting markets : defining odds restrictions, exploring market inefficiencies and measuring bookmaker solvency." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37783.
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Betting markets have been of great interest to researchers as they represent a simpler set-up of financial markets. With an estimated Gross Gambling Revenue of 45bn yearly on betting on outcomes alone (excluding other gambling markets such as Casino, Poker and Lottery), these markets deserve attention on their own merit. This thesis provides simple mathematical derivation of a number of key statements in setting odds. It estimates the expected bookmaker profit as a function of wagers placed and bookmaker margin. Moreover it shows that odds set by bookmakers should have implied probabilities that add up to at least one. Bookmakers do not require the exact probability of an outcome to have positive expected profits. They can increase profitability by having more accurate odds and offering more multiples/accumulators. Bookmakers can lower variation in payouts by maintaining the ratio of wagers and implied probability per outcome. While bookmakers face significant regulatory pressures as well as increased taxes and levies, there is no standard industry model that can be applied to evaluate the minimum reserves for a bookmaker. Hence a bookmaker may be under/over-reserving funds required to conduct business. A solvency regime for bookmakers is presented in this work. Furthermore a model is proposed to forecast soccer results – this focuses on goal differences in contrast to traditional models that predict outcome or goals scored per team. Significant investigations are made on the inefficiencies of betting markets. The likelihood of Brazil reaching different stages of the 2014 World Cup, as perceived by odds, is compared to events on and outside the pitch to imply bias. An analysis of over 136,000 odds for European soccer matches shows evidence of the longshot bias. Finally this work investigates how it is possible to profit from market inefficiencies on betting exchanges during short tournaments by using a Monte Carlo simulation method as a quasi-arbitrage model.
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Iland, Damien Patrick. "Biased evaluation and cognitive models : an application to a sports betting competition /." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2001. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ARPS/09arpsi273.pdf.
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Skein, Bronwyn Ann. "Personality differences in cognitive sampling and generalisation in a simulated betting task /." Title page, table of contents and abstract only, 1990. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ARPS/09arpss6273.pdf.
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BONIECKI, PAWEL. "Positioning of online betting services : A case study of finding the gap between companies’ view versus customers’ view." Thesis, KTH, Industriell marknadsföring, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-191227.
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Under det senaste decenniet har informationsteknologin utvecklats explosionartat. Införandet av smartphones och surfplattor som alltid är anslutna till Internet har förändrat vårt sätt att "konsumera" den. Allt detta ledde till digitaliseringen av betting tjänster och flytten till Internet. I deras tidiga dagar hade online betting tjänster ett lätt jobb att göra när det gällde positionering, de behövde bara finns på Internet och det var det som lockade kunder. Men tiderna har förändrats och online betting tjänster står inför nya utmaningar. De måste hitta en tydlig positionering och ha en konkurrensfördel gentemot sina konkurrenter, men det är inte en lätt uppgift. Därför koncentrerade sig denna studie på en utredning av positioneringen för dessa tjänster. Fallstudietillvägagångssätt valdes för detta examensarbete och det undersökta företaget var Betsson Group, som är ett av de större företagen med många varumärken i sin portfölj. Forskningen är begränsad till deras tre mest populära varumärken: Betsson, Betsafe och NordicBet med undantag för text mining där Bet365 (en konkurrent) också analyserades. Empirisk data som samlades in under denna studie kom från intervjuer på fallstudieföretaget,frågeformulär besvarat av kunder och genom text mining av online betting tjänsters omdömen. Studien resulterade i att hitta gapet mellan positioneringen av företaget, kunderna och online recensenterna. Kundernas vy och recensenters vy överrensstämmer ganska bra, men öretagets uppfattning är helt avvikand. När kunderna väljer online betting tjänst bryr de sig mest om bästa odds, bonusar och mängden av betts, där å andra sidan företag placerar sig på ett statiskt sätt med målgrupper: folklig, nerdy och lyxig. Kunderna tenderar att inte bry sig om varumärkespositioneringen och driver företag in i ett priskrig, men samtidigt måste de känna igen varumärket för att lita på det med sina pengar. Studien bidrar till att förstå kunders vy när de väljer en online betting tjänst och denna spekt kan generaliseras för hela online bettingindustrin. Dessutom kan en del av teorierna appliceras på andra online tjänster där bästa pris söks.During the last decade, IT had a big burst. The introduction of smartphones and tablets that are always connected to the Internet changed our way of “consuming” it. All that lead to digitalization of betting services and moving them to the Internet. In their early days online betting services had an easy job to do regarding positioning, they only needed to exist on the Internet and that attracted customers. But, times have changed and online betting services face new challenges. They must find a clear positioning and have a competitive advantage over their competitors, but that is not an easy task to do. Therefore, this study concentrated on the investigation of the positioning for these services. Case study approach was chosen for this thesis and the investigated company was Betsson Group, which is one of the bigger companies with many brands in their portfolio. However, the research was delimited to their three most popular brands: Betsson, Betsafe and NordicBet with exception to text mining where Bet365 (a competitor) were also analyzed. Empirical data gather during this study came from interviews at the case company, questionnaire with customers and through text mining of online betting services reviews. The study resulted in finding the gap, in positioning, between the company, the customers and the online reviewers. Customers view and reviewers view align quite well, however company view is completely unaligned. When choosing an online betting service, customers mostly care about best odds, bonuses and variety of bets, where on the other hand companies position themselves in a static way with targets group of folksy, nerdy and luxurious. Customers tend to not care about the brand positioning, and push companies into a price war, however, they need to know the brand in order to trust it with their money. The study contributes to understanding the customers view when they choose an online betting service and this aspect can be generalized for the online betting industry as a whole. Moreover, some of the theories can be applied to other online services where best price is searched for.
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Matthews, Gregory J. "Improved paired comparison models for NFL point spreads by data transformation." Link to electronic thesis, 2005. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-050505-144934/.
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Formánek, Radek. "Hodnocení ekonomické situace podniku a návrhy na její zlepšení." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-223656.
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The betting market in the Czech Republic is currently moving 10 companies that year, which annually divided among themselves more like 15 billion. One of them is the Startip, young and still growing betting agency. Target of this masters thesis is helping the company Startip to increase its market share, increase the quality of their products and to propose a summary of improvements in accordance with the requirements and the proposals formulated by betters in research made in collection of 224 respondents.
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Trannois, Mallorie. "L'harmonisation européenne des jeux d'argent en ligne : Etude comparative entre la Belgique, la France, la Grande-Bretagne et l'Italie." Thesis, Cergy-Pontoise, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014CERG0694.
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Historiquement en matière de jeux d'argent en dur, il existe une homogénéité des législations nationales puisque la plupart des dispositifs s'articule autour d'un monopole d'Etat et/ou de la délivrance d'une licence d'exploitation exclusive. Le particularisme de cette activité économique a été reconnu par le juge européen ce qui lui permet de déroger, sous certaines conditions, aux principes de libre prestation de services et de liberté d'établissement. L'avènement des jeux d'argent en ligne a cependant modifié l'appréhension de ce secteur en raison du caractère transnationale de cette nouvelle activité. A cet égard, les Etats ont tenté d'apporter des réponses aux problématiques liées au blanchiment d'argent, à la protection du consommateur, à la manipulation des résultats sportifs et à l'existence de sites illégaux qu'elle pose. L'hétérogénéité des solutions proposées ne permet cependant pas de répondre efficacement à ces écueils ni de satisfaire aux exigences définies par les Traités. Dès lors, la Commission européenne a introduit des procédures d'infractions contre certains Etats puis a publié un livre vert afin de rechercher des pistes qui assureraient un consensus entre les Etats membres sans qu'elle n'ait à intervenir davantage par l'intermédiaire d'une législation européenne. Néanmoins, les nombreux obstacles issus des textes européens n'offrent à la Commission européenne qu'un espace restreint de propositions qui viseront surtout à renforcer les coopérations entre les autorités de régulation et ne permettront probablement pas de résoudre les questions susmentionnées. C'est dans cette perspective que nos travaux de recherches s'inscriront. Aussi, après avoir étudié le droit positif européen, nous nous attacherons, à partir d'une étude de droit comparé des principaux modèles juridiques existants sur le territoire de l'Union (droit belge, droit britannique, droit français et droit italien), à déterminer un instrument d'harmonisation européen qui d'assurer un haut niveau de protection des consommateurs et une concurrence équilibrée entre les opérateurs de jeuxHistorically as regards gambling, there is a homogeneity of national laws because most regulations are built around a state monopoly and / or grant of an exclusive license. The particularity of this economic activity has been recognized by the European Justice Court allowing it to derogate, under certain conditions, the principles of freedom to provide services and freedom of establishment. The advent of online gambling, however, changed the understanding of the sector due to the transnational nature of this new activity. In this regard, States have attempted to provide answers to issues related to money laundering, consumer protection, match fixing and the existence of illegal websites that pose. The heterogeneity of the solutions does not allow to effectively respond to these pitfalls or to satisfy the requirements defined by the Treaties. Therefore, the European Commission brought infringement proceedings against some states and has published a Green Paper to search for tracks that would ensure a consensus among Member States without it having to intervene more through of European regulation. However, many obstacles from European laws available to the European Commission a limited space of proposals that aim primarily at strengthening cooperation between regulatory authorities and probably will not help to solve the above issues. It is in this context that our research work will enroll. Also, having studied European positive law, we will focus, from a comparative law study of the main existing legal models on the territory of the Union (Belgian law, English law, French law and Italian law) to determine an instrument of European harmonization to ensure a high level of consumer protection and fair competition between gambling operators
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Johnson, Johnnie. "Decision-making in a risky environment : insights from the UK horserace betting market." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.241871.
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Tsirimpas, Polyvios. "Specification and performance optimisation of real-time trading strategies for betting exchange platforms." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/24783.
Full textAbstract:
Since their introduction in June 2000, betting exchanges have revolutionised the nature and practice of betting. Betting exchange markets share some similarities with financial markets in terms of their operation. However, in stark contrast to financial markets, there are very few quantitative analysis tools available to support the development of automated betting exchange trading strategies. This thesis confronts challenges related to the generic specification, back-testing, optimisation and execution of parameterised automated trading strategies for betting exchange markets, and presents a related framework called SPORTSBET. The framework is built on an open-source event-driven platform called URBI, which, to date, has been mainly used to develop applications in the domains of robotics and artificial intelligence. SPORTSBET consists of three main components, each of which addresses a hitherto-unmet research challenge. The first is UBEL, a novel generic betting strategy specification language based on the event-driven scripting language of URBI, which can be used to specify parameterised betting strategies for markets related to a wide range of sports. The second is a complex event processor which is capable of synchronising multiple data streams and either replaying them on an historical basis with dynamic market re-construction, in order to quantify strategy performance, or executing them in real time with either real or virtual capital. The final component is an optimisation platform whereby strategy parameters are automatically refined using a stochastic search heuristic in order to improve strategy performance. Explicitly, the optimisation process involves stochastic initialisation, intermediate stochastic selection and acceptance of the candidate solution. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of SPORTSBET, case studies are presented for betting strategies for a range of sports. As illustrated in the case studies, the SPORTSBET optimisation platform implements Walk-Forward Analysis for the robust parameterisation of betting exchange trading strategies without overfitting. Nonetheless, the outcomes should be carefully interpreted, while numerous tests of a strategy are recommended.