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1
Dorcas Mobolade, Tolulope, and Parastoo Pourvahidi. "Bioclimatic Approach for Climate Classification of Nigeria." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (2020): 4192. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12104192.
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One of the fundamental determinants of buildings is the protection of the people who live and work within them from a harsh climate, but a lot of buildings in Nigeria are no longer providing the required comfort needed. The gas emissions through the use of mechanical equipment and lack of energy efficiency in buildings are the major causes of climate change. The way architecture responds to climate change is important. Thus, this research attempted, by using the new bioclimatic chart, to prepare the new climate classification of Nigeria. The research was aimed at establishing a bioclimatically based approach for architecture in Nigeria. By retrieving the climatic data from thirty-six Nigerian meteorological stations about characteristics of each region, bioclimatic analysis was achieved. According to the bioclimatic analysis of this research, Nigeria can be divided into five different climatic regions, such as hot-dry, hot-humid, temperate-dry, temperate-humid, and temperate-dry with a cool climate. We aimed to prove that the climate classification gives the proper answer, dependent upon the vernacular architecture analyzed on Nigeria.
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Salvacion, A. R., T. C. Solpot, C. J. R. Cumagun, et al. "Exploring environmental determinants of Fusarium wilt occurrence on banana in South Central Mindanao, Philippines." Hellenic Plant Protection Journal 12, no. 2 (2019): 78–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/hppj-2019-0008.
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Summary This study used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) to explore potential environmental determinants of Fusarium wilt occurrence on banana in south-central part of the Philippines. Different variables representing topographic, bioclimatic, and edaphic features of an area were tested against data of Fusarium wilt occurrence. Based on the results, precipitation during the driest month, precipitation during the wettest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, slope, and elevation were the most important variables for predicting the probability of Fusarium wilt occurrence on banana. Results also suggest that among the variables tested, precipitation had the major contribution to the occurrence of Fusarium wilt.
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Yao, Raymond Koffi. "Variability of bioclimatic determinants and their impacts on the productivity of cowpea and maize intercropping in three agro-ecologies areas of Côte d'Ivoire." International Journal of Agronomy and Agricultural Research (IJAAR) 25, no. 1 (2024): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14028099.
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In Côte d’Ivoire, the yield of cowpea and maize remains low due to climatic variations that are difficult to control. This study was initiated with the objective of evaluating the impact of climate variability on the productivity of cowpea and maize intercropping. To achieve this, experimental trials were conducted in the localities of Bédiala, Adzopé, and Dikodougou during the years 2020 and 2021. The experimental design was a completely randomized block with four replications. Each plot covered an area of 1088 m² (34 m × 32 m) and included 28 treatments. Cowpea and maize were sown simultaneously in single inter-row planting. Growth data for both crops were collected during the reproductive phase, while yield data were collected after the respective harvests. The results show that the year of planting and the cultivation area significantly influence the grain yields of cowpea and maize. The highest maize yields were recorded in 2020 in Bédiala and in 2021 in Dikodougou, while the best cowpea yield was observed in 2020 in Bédiala. This spatio-temporal analysis of agricultural yields is crucial for effective resource management and ensuring long-term food security. published by the <strong>International Journal of Agronomy and Agricultural Research (IJAAR)</strong>
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Gallozzi, Francesco, Paolo Colangelo, Gabriele Senczuk, and Riccardo Castiglia. "Phylogeographic and Bioclimatic Determinants of the Dorsal Pattern Polymorphism in the Italian Wall Lizard, Podarcis siculus." Diversity 14, no. 7 (2022): 519. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d14070519.
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The geographic variability of the dorsal pattern (DP) of the Italian wall lizard, Podarcis siculus, across its native range was studied with the aim of understanding whether the distributions of this phenotypic trait were more shaped by allopatric differentiation rather than adaptive processes. A total of 1298 georeferenced observations scattered across the Italian peninsula and the main islands (Sicily, Corsica and Sardinia) were obtained from citizen science databases and five DPs were characterized by different shapes of the dark pattern (“reticulated”, “campestris”, “reticulated/campestris” and “striped”) or by absence of it (“concolor”). Frequencies of different DP phenotypes differ between the two main mtDNA lineages settled in central-northern and in southern Italy, respectively. This pattern may be indicative of a role of long-term allopatric historical processes in determining the observed pattern. The analysis also identified a putative wide area of secondary contact, in central southern Italy, characterized by high diversity of the DP. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), used to estimate a possible association between bioclimatic variables and the observed phenotypic variation, showed that each of the five DPs is correlated to different environmental factors and show a different distribution of areas with high probability of occurrence. However, for all but one of the DPs, the area with the greatest probability does not correspond exactly to the real distribution of the DP. Conversely, the “concolor” phenotype does not seem related to any particular mtDNA lineage and it shows a preference for areas with high temperature and low rainfall. This is in agreement with the expectation of low amount of melanin of the dorsal pattern that, in the study areas, is characterized by a light uniform coloration which could confer a better thermoregulation ability in high temperatures environments to avoid overheating.
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Parra-Vásquez, C., K. Suarez-Bravo, R. Caballero-Salas, V. Soto-Aquino, C. Alvarez-Montalván, and S. Manrique. "Identification and Characterization of Life Zones at Satipo District in the Tropics of Central Peru." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1046, no. 1 (2022): 012003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1046/1/012003.
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Abstract At present, the life zones have undergone great changes due to anthropic activities, so the present study was carried out with the aim of identifying and characterizing the life zones of the Satipo district. The applied methodology was the Holdridge life zone classification, the meteorological variables were analyzed, the vegetation cover was identified, also using the ArcGIS, QGIS, ENVI and Microsoft Excel software, the data analysis and field information were processed. In the investigation of bioclimatic factors they show that there are four important determinants: annual biotemperature, mean annual accumulation, humidity provinces and attitudinal levels. Noticing the decline of forests, overpopulation, among others, many companies are choosing to reduce products that lead to the loss of life zones. In the district of Satipo, three life zones were identified and two of a transitory nature of the one hundred and twenty-three existing ones.
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Schnase, John L., and Mark L. Carroll. "Automatic variable selection in ecological niche modeling: A case study using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii)." PLOS ONE 17, no. 1 (2022): e0257502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257502.
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MERRA/Max provides a feature selection approach to dimensionality reduction that enables direct use of global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling. The system accomplishes this reduction through a Monte Carlo optimization in which many independent MaxEnt runs, operating on a species occurrence file and a small set of randomly selected variables in a large collection of variables, converge on an estimate of the top contributing predictors in the larger collection. These top predictors can be viewed as potential candidates in the variable selection step of the ecological niche modeling process. MERRA/Max’s Monte Carlo algorithm operates on files stored in the underlying filesystem, making it scalable to large data sets. Its software components can run as parallel processes in a high-performance cloud computing environment to yield near real-time performance. In tests using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii) as the target species, MERRA/Max selected a set of predictors from Worldclim’s Bioclim collection of 19 environmental variables that have been shown to be important determinants of the species’ bioclimatic niche. It also selected biologically and ecologically plausible predictors from a more diverse set of 86 environmental variables derived from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, an output product of the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system. We believe these results point to a technological approach that could expand the use global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling, foster exploratory experimentation with otherwise difficult-to-use climate data sets, streamline the modeling process, and, eventually, enable automated bioclimatic modeling as a practical, readily accessible, low-cost, commercial cloud service.
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Gnanaolivu, Smitha D., Joseph J. Erinjery, Marco Campera, and Mewa Singh. "Distribution and Habitat Suitability of the Malabar Slender Loris (Loris lydekkerianus malabaricus) in the Aralam Wildlife Sanctuary, India." Land 14, no. 4 (2025): 872. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14040872.
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Understanding how mammals respond to climate change is critical for predicting future biogeographic shifts and implementing effective conservation strategies. In this study, we applied MaxEnt modeling to identify key determinants of the distribution of the Malabar slender loris (Loris lydekkerianus malabaricus), a nocturnal primate endemic to the Western Ghats of India. Using 416 slender loris sightings, spatially thinned at 0.5 km intervals to reduce spatial autocorrelation, we evaluated 19 present bioclimatic variables alongside 10 additional climatic variables. From these, 14 predictor variables with Pearson correlation values above 0.75 were selected for analysis. Future distribution models employed bioclimatic projections from the CNRM-CM5 global climate models under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The current distribution models identified 23 km2 as a suitable habitat for slender lorises, with 3 km2 suitable for males and 12 km2 for females. Projections for 2070 under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios predict habitat reductions of 52%, 13%, and 8%, respectively, signaling significant vulnerability under changing climatic conditions. Precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, distance from roads, and elevation were identified as the most influential variables shaping the species’ distribution. This study underscores the pressing need for targeted conservation efforts to mitigate habitat loss and fragmentation, particularly in the context of climate change. By providing a detailed analysis of current and future habitat suitability, it lays the groundwork for similar predictive studies on nocturnal small mammals. As climate change accelerates, the integration of species–specific ecological insights and advanced modeling techniques will be vital in guiding conservation actions and preserving biodiversity in vulnerable ecosystems like the Western Ghats.
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Zymaroieva, Anastasiia, Tetiana Fedoniuk, Svitlana Matkovska, Olena Andreieva, and Victor Pazych. "Agroecological Determinants of Potato Spatiotemporal Yield Variation at the Landscape Level in the Central and Northern Ukraine." Grassroots Journal of Natural Resources 4, no. 2 (2021): 34–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.33002/nr2581.6853.040203.
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Global food security largely depends on the crop yield increase, so the study of the yield-limiting factors of potato (the second bread) is a pressing issue today. This study determines the contribution of the agroecological factors, namely, bioclimatic variables, soil indicators, and factors of landscape diversity, to the variation in potato yields. Conducted in Polissya and Forest-steppe zones of Ukraine during 1991–2017, this study has not only addressed the relationship between ecological determinants and potato yields, but also considered crop yields as a dynamic system. The dynamics of potato yields from the mid-1990s to the present is described by a log-logistic model. There are statistically significant regression dependencies between potato yield parameters and agroecological factors. Potato yield is dependent on the diversity of landscape cover. The relationship between yield parameters and landscape-ecological diversity is non-linear, which determines the presence of optimal landscape structure for the highest potato yields. Among climatic factors, the continental climate is of the greatest importance for potato yield. The high sensitivity of potato yield parameters to soil indices was found, and mostly the soil texture components (silt content), which largely determines the potato yield spatial variation.
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Anastasiia, Zymaroieva, Fedoniuk Tetiana, Matkovska Svitlana, Andreieva Olena, and Pazych Victor. "Agroecological Determinants of Potato Spatiotemporal Yield Variation at the Landscape Level in the Central and Northern Ukraine." Grassroots Journal of Natural Resources 4, no. 2 (2021): 34–47. https://doi.org/10.33002/nr2581.6853.040203.
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Global food security largely depends on the crop yield increase, so the study of the yield-limiting factors of potato (the second bread) is a pressing issue today. This study determines the contribution of the agroecological factors, namely, bioclimatic variables, soil indicators, and factors of landscape diversity, to the variation in potato yields. Conducted in Polissya and Forest-steppe zones of Ukraine during 1991–2017, this study has not only addressed the relationship between ecological determinants and potato yields, but also considered crop yields as a dynamic system. The dynamics of potato yields from the mid-1990s to the present is described by a log-logistic model. There are statistically significant regression dependencies between potato yield parameters and agroecological factors. Potato yield is dependent on the diversity of landscape cover. The relationship between yield parameters and landscape-ecological diversity is non-linear, which determines the presence of optimal landscape structure for the highest potato yields. Among climatic factors, the continental climate is of the greatest importance for potato yield. The high sensitivity of potato yield parameters to soil indices was found, and mostly the soil texture components (silt content), which largely determines the potato yield spatial variation.
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Singleton, Alyson L., Caroline K. Glidden, Andrew J. Chamberlin, et al. "Species distribution modeling for disease ecology: A multi-scale case study for schistosomiasis host snails in Brazil." PLOS Global Public Health 4, no. 8 (2024): e0002224. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0002224.
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Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly popular tools for profiling disease risk in ecology, particularly for infectious diseases of public health importance that include an obligate non-human host in their transmission cycle. SDMs can create high-resolution maps of host distribution across geographical scales, reflecting baseline risk of disease. However, as SDM computational methods have rapidly expanded, there are many outstanding methodological questions. Here we address key questions about SDM application, using schistosomiasis risk in Brazil as a case study. Schistosomiasis is transmitted to humans through contact with the free-living infectious stage of Schistosoma spp. parasites released from freshwater snails, the parasite’s obligate intermediate hosts. In this study, we compared snail SDM performance across machine learning (ML) approaches (MaxEnt, Random Forest, and Boosted Regression Trees), geographic extents (national, regional, and state), types of presence data (expert-collected and publicly-available), and snail species (Biomphalaria glabrata, B. straminea, and B. tenagophila). We used high-resolution (1km) climate, hydrology, land-use/land-cover (LULC), and soil property data to describe the snails’ ecological niche and evaluated models on multiple criteria. Although all ML approaches produced comparable spatially cross-validated performance metrics, their suitability maps showed major qualitative differences that required validation based on local expert knowledge. Additionally, our findings revealed varying importance of LULC and bioclimatic variables for different snail species at different spatial scales. Finally, we found that models using publicly-available data predicted snail distribution with comparable AUC values to models using expert-collected data. This work serves as an instructional guide to SDM methods that can be applied to a range of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases. In addition, it advances our understanding of the relevant environment and bioclimatic determinants of schistosomiasis risk in Brazil.
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Das, Arundhati, Harini Nagendra, Madhur Anand, and Milind Bunyan. "Topographic and Bioclimatic Determinants of the Occurrence of Forest and Grassland in Tropical Montane Forest-Grassland Mosaics of the Western Ghats, India." PLOS ONE 10, no. 6 (2015): e0130566. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0130566.
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Abrantes, Jose Francis V., Zenn Ashley P. Cariño, Hozeo Luis S. Mercado, et al. "Identification of Environmental Determinants Involved in the Distribution of Burkholderia pseudomallei in Southeast Asia using MaxEnt software." PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 19, no. 1 (2025): e0012684. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012684.
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Burkholderia pseudomallei (Bp), causing melioidosis, is becoming a major global public health concern. It is highly endemic in Southeast Asia (SEA) and Northern Australia and is persisting beyond the established areas of endemicity. This study aimed to determine the environmental variables that would predict the most suitable ecological niche for this pathogenic bacterium in SEA by maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. Systematic review and meta-analysis of data for melioidosis were obtained from public databases such as PubMed, Harmonized World Soil (HWSD) and WorldClim. The potential map showing the environmental layers was processed by ArcGIS, and the prediction for the probability of habitat suitability using MaxEnt software (version 3·4·4) and ENMeval R-based modeling tools was utilized to generate the distribution map with the best-fit model. Both bioclimatic and edaphic predictors were found to be the most important niche-determining environmental variables affecting the geographical distribution of Bp. The highest probability of suitability was predicted in areas with mean temperature of the wettest quarter at ≥26°C, annual precipitation of <2300 mm and Acrisol soil type. Combining those significantly influential variables, our predictive modeling generated a potential distribution map showing the concentration of areas and its location names with high suitability for Bp presence. The predicted distribution of Bp is extensive in the mainland part of SEA. This can be used to draw appropriate measures to safeguard public health and address the true disease burden of melioidosis in the region under the current climate scenario.
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Bandara, A. P. Malsha J., Buddhika D. Madurapperuma, Gayan Edirisinghe, Dinesh Gabadage, Madhava Botejue, and Thilina D. Surasinghe. "Bioclimatic Envelopes for Two Bat Species from a Tropical Island: Insights on Current and Future Distribution from Ecological Niche Modeling." Diversity 14, no. 7 (2022): 506. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d14070506.
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Bats perform critical ecosystem functions, including the pollination, seed dispersal, and regulation of invertebrate populations. Yet, bat populations are declining worldwide primarily due to habitat loss and other anthropogenic stressors. Thus, studies on bat ecology, particularly on environmental determinants of bat occupancy, are paramount to their conservation. High mobility, nocturnal behavior, and roosting site selection of bats make conventional surveys challenging. Moreover, little is known about geographic distribution, habitat suitability, and responses to climate change among tropical bat species. To bridge these research gaps, we applied ecological niche modeling to two Ceylonese bat species, Kerivoula malpasi and Kerivoula picta, to map their geographic distribution. Seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation were critical environmental predictors of bat distribution in general. Southwestern lowland forests contained the most optimal habitats for the relatively wide-ranging Kerivoula picta, while the central highlands provided the most suitable habitats for the narrow-ranging Kerivoula malpasi. No tangible changes in the highly suitable habitats were evident in response to projected climate change for either species. Yet, the optimal ranges of K. malpasi can become fragmented in the future, whereas the most optimal habitats for K. picta are likely to become spatially contiguous in the future. Habitat availability or fundamental niche alone is insufficient to reliably forecast species persistence, thus we caution against considering these two bat species as resilient to climate change. Our findings will enable the conservation authorities to initiate preemptive conservation strategies, such as the establishment of landscape-scale habitat connectivity and management of buffer zones around conservation lands. We also encourage conservation authorities to employ ecological niche models to map potential species distributions and to forecast range shifts due to climate change.
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Hammed, Rasheed Akinleye, Gbenga Lawrence Alawode, Laura E. Montoya, Andrey Krasovskiy, and Florian Kraxner. "Exploring Drivers of Wildfires in Spain." Land 13, no. 6 (2024): 762. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land13060762.
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Wildfires play a dual role in ecosystems by providing ecological benefits while posing catastrophic events; they also inflict non-catastrophic damage and yield long-term effects on biodiversity, soil quality, and air quality, among other factors, including public health. This study analysed the key determinants of wildland fires in Spain using openly available spatial data from 2008 to 2021, including fire perimeters, bioclimatic variables, topography, and socioeconomic datasets, at a resolution of 1 km2. Our methodology combined principal component analysis (PCA), linear regression analysis, and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Our findings show that scrub/herbaceous vegetation (average 63 ± 1.45% SE) and forests (average 19 ± 0.76% SE) have been highly susceptible to wildfires. The population density exhibited a robust positive correlation with wildfire frequency (R2 = 0.88, p < 0.0001). Although the study provides insights into some fire-related climatic drivers over Spain, it includes only temperature and precipitation-based variables and does not explicitly consider fuel dynamics. Therefore, a more advanced methodology should be applied in the future to understand the local specifics of regional wildfire dynamics. Our study identified that scrub/herbaceous areas and forests near densely populated regions should be prioritised for wildfire management in Spain, particularly under changing climate conditions.
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Montero, Marco O. V., Aurora A. Ariza, Nancy M. Barreno, et al. "Land suitability of coffee cultivation under climate change influence in the Ecuadorian Amazon." GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY 17, no. 2 (2024): 49–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2969.
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In this study, the influence of climate change on land suitability for coffee cultivation in the Ecuadorian Amazon (EA) was investigated using five global circulation models (GCMs) in two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585). Eleven physioedaphological factors were selected for the analysis and were combined with the most influential bioclimatic variables to model past, present and future suitable areas in five provinces of the EA. In assessing past suitability areas, key determinants varied based on land suitability levels. High suitability areas were primarily influenced by factors such as texture, organic matter content, soil fertility, soil depth, slope, and aspect, while pH, salinity, toxicity, drainage, and stoniness were more associated with moderate suitability areas. The present high suitability areas were influenced by texture, organic matter content, soil fertility, soil depth, and slope, whereas aspect, pH, salinity, toxicity, drainage, and stoniness were more prominent in modeling moderate areas. The ensemble estimation model projected distinct future scenarios for coffee cultivation; under the worst climate scenario (SSP585), Zamora Chinchipe and Morona Santiago, particularly in the east, face considerable unsuitability. Conversely, the more favorable scenario (SSP126) indicates high suitability across Pastaza, Orellana, and Sucumbios, with limited suitability in border areas adjacent to the Highland region. This study highlights the importance of implementing timely adaptation strategies to improve resilience to climate change impacts in the coffee sector.
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Liu, Ying, Qiong Yang, Suhang Li, et al. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ilex macrocarpa Distribution Under Future Climate Scenarios: Implications for Conservation Planning." Forests 16, no. 2 (2025): 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16020370.
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Identifying ecological distribution responses to climate change is pivotal for preserving biodiversity. Ilex macrocarpa, a deciduous tree of the Aquifoliaceae family, has considerable ecological and medicinal benefits. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of I. macrocarpa using MaxEnt modeling and GIS analysis. We analyzed 562 occurrence records against 19 bioclimatic variables, subsequently refined to 7 key predictors through Pearson correlation analysis (|r| ≤ 0.75). The MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.902 ± 0.010). Annual precipitation (67.9% contribution) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (18.4% contribution) emerged as the primary determinants of I. macrocarpa distribution. Currently, suitable habitats occupy 252.97 × 104 km2 (26.35%) of the total land area of China, with highly suitable areas (72.82 × 104 km2) predominantly found in southern China. Under future scenarios, substantial distribution shifts are projected: SSP126 shows a 21.7% reduction in suitable area by 2050, followed by a 9.1% recovery by 2090; SSP245 indicates a 13.4% reduction by 2050 with minimal subsequent change; and SSP585 demonstrates the most severe impact, with a 32.0% reduction by 2090. Habitat centroid analysis reveals significant northeastward shifts under SSP126 (116.23 km by 2090), variable movements under SSP245, and southwestern displacement under SSP585 (143.23 km by 2090). These findings suggest differential responses across climate scenarios, with implications for conservation planning and management strategies.
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Prendergast, HDV. "Geographical Distribution of C4 Acid Decarboxylation Types and Associated Structural Variants in Native Australian C4 Grasses (Poaceae)." Australian Journal of Botany 37, no. 3 (1989): 253. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/bt9890253.
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The native Australian C4 grass (Poaceae) flora is estimated to comprise 347 (57%) NADP-ME (NADP- malic enzyme), 193 (32%) NAD-ME (NAD-malic enzyme), and 65 (11%) PCK (PEP carboxykinase) type species. All C4 types are best represented in northern tropical Queensland, within the megatherm seasonal (summer) rainfall bioclimate of Nix. NADP-ME species are numerically dominant in 48 out of 73 State and Territory subdivisions, including 23 wholly or partly within the megathermlmesotherm arid bioclimate which closely corresponds to the arid and semiarid zones covering c. 80% of Australia. NAD-ME species numbers are proportionately at their highest in this bioclimate; PCK species may be the most dependent there on high soil moisture availability. The extent of the megatherm seasonal bioclimate is parallelled by the distribution of most PCK species and of many species of all C4 types with a suberised lamella in the cell walls of their 'photosynthetic carbon reduction' (or Kranz) tissue. Whilst the physiological reasons for these correlations are unknown, it is clear that C4 type alone is neither the sole determinant of geographical distribution nor necessarily always an adaptation to a particular bioclimatic regime. Taxonomic, ecological and historical factors in relation to C4 type distribution are discussed.
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Xu, Yue, Bing-Qian Guan, Ran Chen, Rong Yi, Xiao-Long Jiang, and Kai-Qing Xie. "Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the Camellia Subgenus Camellia in China and Providing Insights into Camellia Resources Management Under Future Climate Change." Plants 14, no. 7 (2025): 1137. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14071137.
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Rapid climate change has significantly impacted species distribution patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of dominant tree dynamics for effective forest resource management and utilization. The Camellia subgenus Camellia, a widely distributed taxon in subtropical China, represents an ecologically and economically important group of woody plants valued for both oil production and ornamental purposes. In this study, we employed the BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling framework to investigate the spatial distribution patterns and range dynamics of the subgenus Camellia under projected climate change scenarios. Our analysis incorporated 1455 georeferenced occurrence records from 15 species, following the filtering of duplicate points, along with seven bioclimatic variables selected after highly correlated factors were eliminated. The ensemble model, which integrates six single species distribution models, demonstrated robust predictive performance, with mean true skil l statistic (TSS) and area under curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.8. Our results identified precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) as the primary determinants influencing species distribution patterns. The center of species richness for the subgenus Camellia was located in the Nanling Mountains and eastern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The projections indicate an overall expansion of suitable habitats for the subgenus under future climate conditions, with notable scenario-dependent variations: distribution hotspots are predicted to increase by 8.86% under the SSP126 scenario but experience a 2.53% reduction under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, a westward shift in the distribution centroid is anticipated. To ensure long-term conservation of Camellia genetic resources, we recommend establishing a germplasm conservation center in the Nanling Mountains region, which represents a critical biodiversity hotspot for this taxon.
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Smaliychuk, Anatolii, Ivan Kruhlov, Oleg Chaskovskyi, Ganna Smaliychuk, and Volodymyr Bilanyuk. "CLIMATE REGULATING ECOSYTEM SERVICES OF THE FOREST LANDSCAPE IN THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS." SCIENTIFIC ISSUES OF TERNOPIL VOLODYMYR HNATIUK NATIONAL PEDAGOGICAL UNIVERSITY. SERIES: GEOGRAPHY 51, no. 2 (2021): 48–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.25128/2519-4577.21.2.6.
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Ecosystems provide multiple services for humans. Among them, a group of supporting and regulating ecosystem services is often less recognized by people as benefit and has been less studied by researchers. Amid various manifestations of climate change, more attention has been paid to particular subset of this group of services called climate regulating. Despite these there still few quantitative studies in this field. Trying to fill this research gap we conducted a study aimed at exploration of relation between climate regulating ecosystem services and their spatial determinants in the forest landscape within Ukrainian Carpathians. For that we chose the territory within Rakhiv and Tsiachiv districts in Transcarpathian region which represents all diversity of forest mountain ecosystems. For this study we used information on land surface temperature (LST) extracted from Landsat 8 thermal band for summer season of 2015. In order to account for vertical thermal gradient in mountains the LST data underwent normalization and in further analysis a dependent variable we employed normalized LST (nLST). Set of independent variables included geomorphometric indicators (altitude, slope, aspect, TPI) and data on forest cover (disturbance, density, dominant species, and disturbance in the neighborhood). For key study area of Velykyi watershed of 4059 ha we additionally used data on forest biomass and tree age. In general, all forest ecosystems in present research have been divided into three distinct classes – “natural”, “disturbed” and “other” forests. Using boosted regression trees method we built three statistical models for each of the forest classes called “global” models. Also we developed 12 “local” models that showed the link between nLST and analyzed independent variables within each altitudinal bioclimatic zone with considering also forest class. Three separate statistical models have been built for each of the forest classes for key study area. Our results suggest that both maximum and mean values of nLST within particular altitudinal bioclimatic zone are the lowest in “natural” forests and the highest in “disturbed” ones.. The statistical model performance based on the variance explained indicator ranged from 32 to 74 %, whilst for models for key study area it was between 77 and 89 %. The set of influential variables for different forest classes varied substantially, but the most often they included aspect, forest density and elevation despite of normalization applied before. In models created for class “disturbed” forests between 19 and 35 % of all explained variance has been contributed by variable indicating time of disturbance. In “local” models for class “natural” forests we revealed gradual decrease of influence of the geomorphometric indicators (elevation, slope, and TPI) when move from warmer to cooler altitudinal zones while for topographic aspect and forest density the trends were just the opposite. In case of key study area a wood stock and tree age variables along with elevation and aspect were amongst the most influential ones. We can conclude that depending on the state of naturalness of forest ecosystems they have different climate regulating potential which might be severely depleted by human and natural disturbances.
 Keywords: forest landscape, ecosystem services, remote sensing, climate regulation, climate change, Landsat satellite images, Ukrainian Carpathians.
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Chandra, Naveen, Gajendra Singh, Ishwari Datt Rai, et al. "Predicting Distribution and Range Dynamics of Three Threatened Cypripedium Species under Climate Change Scenario in Western Himalaya." Forests 14, no. 3 (2023): 633. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f14030633.
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Climate change and anthropogenic pressure have significantly contributed to the decline of biodiversity worldwide, particularly in mountain ecosystems such as the Himalaya. In addition to being relatively sensitive to disturbances, orchids may also respond more quickly to climate change impacts than other plant species. Because of their complex biology and anthropogenic pressures on their habitat in the Himalayan region, lady’s slipper orchids are considered to be a highly vulnerable group of orchids. In the present study, we examine the effect of climate change on the distribution of three threatened Cypripedium species (Cypripedium cordigerum, Cypripedium elegans, and Cypripedium himalaicum), utilizing ecological niche modeling for present and future climatic scenarios to identify key environmental determinants and population parameters. A community climate system model (CCSM ver. 4) was used to identify suitable distribution areas for future scenarios. Based on the least correlated characteristics of the species bioclimatic, topographical, and physiological characteristics, the species’ climatic niche was determined. According to the results, the true skill statistic (TSS), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and Cohen’s kappa provide more reliable predictions. Precipitation during the wettest month and precipitation during the coldest quarter are the primary climatic variables that influence the distribution of suitable areas. A total of 192 km2 of the area was estimated to be suitable for all three species under current climate conditions. Under future climate conditions, the model predicts a trivial increase in suitable habitat areas with a shift toward the northwest. However, highly suitable habitat areas will be severely diminished. There are currently highly suitable habitats in Tungnath and the Valley of Flowers, but due to climatic factors, the habitats will become unsuitable in the future. Additionally, under future climatic scenarios, viable habitats will be identified for priority conservation to cope with the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. In light of these findings, conservation methods for the target species may be designed that will be successful and have the potential to prevent local extinctions.
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Guillemot, J., N. K. Martin-StPaul, E. Dufrêne, et al. "The dynamic of the annual carbon allocation to wood in European tree species is consistent with a combined source–sink limitation of growth: implications for modelling." Biogeosciences 12, no. 9 (2015): 2773–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2773-2015.
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Abstract. The extent to which wood growth is limited by carbon (C) supply (i.e. source control) or by cambial activity (i.e. sink control) will strongly determine the responses of trees to global changes. Nevertheless, the physiological processes that are responsible for limiting forest growth are still a matter of debate. The aim of this study was to evaluate the key determinants of the annual C allocation to wood along large soil and climate regional gradients over France. The study was conducted for five tree species representative of the main European forest biomes (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Quercus ilex, Quercus robur and Picea abies). The drivers of stand biomass growth were assessed on both inter-site and inter-annual scales. Our data set comprised field measurements performed at 49 sites (931 site-years) that included biometric measurements and a variety of stand characteristics (e.g. soil water holding capacity, leaf area index). It was complemented with process-based simulations when possible explanatory variables could not be directly measured (e.g. annual and seasonal tree C balance, bioclimatic water stress indices). Specifically, the relative influences of tree C balance (source control), direct environmental control (water and temperature controls of sink activity) and allocation adjustments related to age, past climate conditions, competition intensity and soil nutrient availability on growth were quantified. The inter-site variability in the stand C allocation to wood was predominantly driven by age-related decline. The direct effects of temperature and water stress on sink activity (i.e. effects independent from their effects on the C supply) exerted a strong influence on the annual stand wood growth in all of the species considered, including deciduous temperate species. The lagged effect of the past environmental conditions (e.g. the previous year's water stress and low C uptake) significantly affected the annual C allocation to wood. The C supply appeared to strongly limit growth only in temperate deciduous species. We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the annual C allocation to wood in French forests. Our study supports the premise that the growth of European tree species is subject to complex control processes that include both source and sink limitations. The relative influences of the growth drivers strongly vary with time and across spatial ecological gradients. We suggest a straightforward modelling framework with which to implement these combined forest growth limitations into terrestrial biosphere models.
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Sandanov, Denis V., Anastasia S. Dugarova, and Inessa Yu Selyutina. "Species distribution modeling for the section Xerobia Bunge of the genus Oxytropis DC. on the territory of Central Asia under past and future climate change." Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Biologiya, no. 52 (2020): 85–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.17223/19988591/52/5.
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Modern botanical studies revealing patterns of plant species distribution are based on analysis of big datasets. Despite publishing many maps of diversity and species richness on the global scale and for huge biogeographic regions of the world, the territories of Northern and Central Asia remain poorly studied. We elaborated a special database, including distribution of 19 Oxytropis species of the section Xerobia with 1353 localitites (See Fig. 1). For all species, we analyzed their whole distribution range, including data from Kazakhstan, Mongolia and China. Species distribution was detected according to the main foreign and Russian herbaria, online databases, field data and relevés. Species distribution modeling was performed using Maxent 3.3.3k with MIROC-ESM model in resolution of 2.5 arc-minutes. 19 BIOCLIM and 18 ENVIREM variables were analyzed. Past climate change was evaluated using ENVIREM variables for the Mid-Holocene (ca. 6.000 yr. BP) and the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 22.000 yr. BP). Future distribution modeling was carried out basing on different climatic scenarios, according to IPCC AR5: RCP8.5, RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. Species distribution from the section Xerobia mostly occupied the territory of Central Asia (See Fig. 1). Few species, such as Oxytropis grandiflora (Pall.) DC. and O. leptophylla (Pall.) DC., were mostly found in the western part of Xerobia section distribution on the territory of Zabaykal’skiy region of Russia, Eastern province of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia province of China. The most part of Xerobia species have isolated distribution and often occupy specific habitats. In such case, using SDM with only bioclimatic variables for local endemic species is pointless. So, we chose species Oxytropis ampullata (Pall.) Pers. (See Fig. 2) with Central Asian distribution and O. grandiflora with Manchuro-Dahurian distribution for modeling (See Fig. 3A). The selected species differ in their ecology: O. ampullata is a mountainous species, whereas most habitats for O. grandiflora are river valleys and mid-mountainous regions. Our analysis showed that ENVIREM variables provide more correct modeling results than BIOCLIM variables (See Fig. 2). Predictive maps on the basis of BIOCLIM variables showed wide potential distribution for O. ampullata, which does not correspond well to the species ecology. The main habitats for this species are such mountainous regions as the Khangai mountains, the Russian and the Mongolian Altai mountains, the Dzhungarian mountains, and the Tarbagatai ridge. Additionally, modeling showed potential distribution for the species in the Selenga river valley. Modern distribution of O. grandiflora was studied quite well; suitable habitats with new localities for the species can be found in the Khentii mountains (See Fig. 3A). The determinants for O. ampullata are mean annual temperature, isothermality and potential evapotranspiration (PET) of the driest and coldest quarter (See Table 1). PET parameters in the driest and the coldest time of the year have the key meaning because in arid conditions plants receive the main portion of moisture in the colder period when the evaporation is not intense, also it is important to conserve the moisture during the dry season. Distribution of O. grandiflora is limited by temperature and precipitation seasonality, temperature annual range, PET seasonality, and PET of the driest quarter (See Table 1). Determinants for the species with Central-Asian distribution O. ampullata are connected with temperature variables, whereas for Manchuro-Daurian species O. grandiflora precipitation matters (See Table 1 and Fig. 3A). The key factors for modern distribution of the studied Xerobia species are mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of the driest quarter, continentality index and climatic moisture index (See Fig. 3B). All these variables were determinants for the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (See Table 2 and Fig. 4), which might give evidence of relatively stable environmental conditions in the studied region. Central Asia has not been severely affected by glaciation as more northern latitudes and climate conditions on that territory were relatively stable during a long period. Modeling for the past climate showed a wider distribution for Xerobia species in the north-west during the Last Glacial Maximum and future shrinking during the Mid-Holocene till modern time (See Fig. 4). The north-eastern territories, such as Zabaykal’skiy region of Russia and, partially, the central part of Siberia, are characterized by a wider distribution under modern climate conditions. Species habitats of that territory are mostly confined with mountains. It is consistent with previous studies that described Southern Siberia as one of the centers of speciation for the genus Oxytropis. This region has now high Oxytropis species richness with a great number of endemics.Predictive maps for different climate scenarios reveal insignificant changes in distribution of the section Xerobia, even for the maximum climate warming (RCP8.5 scenario) (See Fig.5). Under predicted climate change, potential habitats in the southwest and in the north-east of Xerobia distribution, as well as a slight shrinking in the south-east can be observed in the future.
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Dorvil, Weldenson, Cathy Clermont-Dauphin, Jean-Luc C. Hotte, Jean-Marie Théodat, Hérauld Museau, and Michel Brossard. "Légumineuses, Agroforesterie, Labour et Pâturage : les déterminants de la diversité des systèmes de culture à Saint-Raphaël, Haïti." International Journal of Biological and Chemical Sciences 17, no. 4 (2023): 1643–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ijbcs.v17i4.28.
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En vue d’évaluer l’impact des pratiques agricoles sur les sols, les approches d’expérimentation de longue durée et de simulation à partir de modèles numériques sont de plus en plus fréquentes. Cependant, dans le contexte des pays du Sud, elles sont souvent difficiles à mettre en œuvre, faute de moyens. Cette étude avait pour objectif de décrire la diversité des systèmes (SC) de culture rencontrés dans une petite région d’altitude d’Haïti, afin d’utiliser ces connaissances, pour raisonner dans une deuxième étape, un dispositif d’évaluation « on-farm » de leurs effets sur les sols. Le concept de système de culture met en avant les interactions fortes existant entre les décisions techniques que prennent les agriculteurs sur leurs parcelles, aussi bien en termes de successions et associations culturales, de gestion de leur disponibilité en nutriments et en eau, et de contrôle des bioagresseurs des cultures. Notre étude s’était appuyée sur 78 parcelles d’agriculteurs sélectionnées avec l’aide de personnes ressources de la région, pour représenter la diversité des unités pédo- bioclimatiques. Chaque parcelle a fait l’objet d’une enquête auprès de son exploitant en vue de décrire ses choix techniques de ces 10 dernières années. On a mis en évidence la coexistence de quatre systèmes de culture (SC) : un système intensif (SI), un système semiintensif (SSI), un système agroforestier (SA) et un système de pâturage permanent (SSU). Ils étaient répartis suivant le pédoclimat avec le SI dominant dans le périmètre irrigué, le SSI dans le plateau non irrigué, le SA dans les vallées et le SSU dans les versants. Le labour n’était absent qu’en SSU. Les indicateurs de ces systèmes étaient facilement accessibles et peuvent être mobilisés en vue de raisonner un dispositif d’évaluation des performances agro-environnementales des pratiques des agriculteurs et concevoir des améliorations de gestion.
 
 English title: Legumes, Agroforestry, ploughing and pasture: determinants of the cropping systems diversity in Saint-Raphael, Haiti 
 In order to assess the impact of agricultural practices on soils, long-term experimental and simulation approaches based on numerical models are becoming increasingly common. However, in the context of Southern countries, they are often difficult to implement due to lack of financial resources. The objective of this study was to describe the diversity of cropping systems (SC) encountered in a small highland region of Haiti, in order to use this knowledge to reason, in a second step, an "on-farm" evaluation system of their effects on soils. The concept of cropping systems highlights the strong interactions between the technical decisions that farmers make on their plots, both in terms of crop succession and associations, management of nutrient and water availability, and control of crop pests. Our study was based on 78 farmers' plots selected with the help of resource persons in the region, to represent the diversity of soil- bioclimatic units. Each plot was surveyed to describe the technical choices made by the farmer over the last 10 years. Four cropping systems (SC) were found to coexist: an intensive system (SI), a semi-intensive system (SSI), an agroforestry system (SA) and a permanent pasture system (SSU). They were distributed according to the pedoclimate, with the SI system dominating in the irrigated perimeter, the SSI system in the non-irrigated plateau, the SA system in the valleys and the SSU system on the slopes. Plowing was absent only in SSU. The indicators of these systems were easily accessible and can be used to reason out an evaluation system of the agro-environmental performance of farmers' practices and to design management improvements.
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Xie, Chunping, Guowu Zhang, Chiyung Jim, et al. "Bioclimatic Suitability of Actual and Potential Cultivation Areas for Jacaranda mimosifolia in Chinese Cities." Forests 12, no. 7 (2021): 951. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f12070951.
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Jacaranda mimosifolia is regarded as a prized ornamental tree in the urban landscape with attractive, abundant and long-lasting violet-colored flowers and graceful tree form. It has been widely cultivated in recent years in many Chinese cities. However, the lack of scientific and practical guidance to cultivate the exotic species has brought about planting failures in some areas, incurring substantial economic losses and landscape decline. A comprehensive understanding of the current spatial pattern and climatic conditions of J. mimosifolia in China can inform species choice, planting and management. We collected data on the geographical coordinates of 257 planting cities and acquired additional information from the literature and field surveys. The limiting factors for cultivation were investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) of 19 bioclimatic parameters of the sampled sites. The potentially suitable habitats were predicted by BIOCLIM modeling using eight selected ecological-important climatic parameters. We found that the present cultivated areas were focused in the low-altitude parts of the subtropical zone, mainly covering the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. The PCA results indicated that temperature was the clinching determinant of the current cultivation patterns, especially annual mean temperature, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Moisture was a necessary but not critical secondary factor. The predicting model for potential habitats was graded as “excellent” by objective validation measures. The findings can provide science-based evidence to plan the expansion of the biogeographical range of cultivation into hitherto unplanted cities and rationalize urban tree introduction and management practices.
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Rogger, Julian, Emily J. Judd, Benjamin J. W. Mills, Yves Goddéris, Taras V. Gerya, and Loïc Pellissier. "Biogeographic climate sensitivity controls Earth system response to large igneous province carbon degassing." Science 385, no. 6709 (2024): 661–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3450.
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Periods of large igneous province (LIP) magmatism have shaped Earth’s biological and climatic history, causing major climatic shifts and biological reorganizations. The vegetation response to LIP-induced perturbations may affect the efficiency of the carbon-climate regulation system and the post-LIP climate evolution. Using an eco-evolutionary vegetation model, we demonstrate here that the vegetation’s climate adaptation capacity, through biological evolution and geographic dispersal, is a major determinant of the severity and longevity of LIP-induced hyperthermals and can promote the emergence of a new climatic steady state. Proxy-based temperature reconstructions of the Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic, and Paleocene-Eocene hyperthermals match the modeled trajectories of bioclimatic disturbance and recovery. We conclude that biological vegetation dynamics shape the multimillion-year Earth system response to sudden carbon degassing and global warming episodes.
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Jácome Aguirre, Gabriel Alexis, Jenifer Dayana Huera Ipial, Andrea Luciana López Gómez, Darío Paúl Arias Muñoz, Ritha Alexandra del Pilar Aguirre Caicedo, and Oscar Rosales Enríquez. "Influencia de factores determinantes en la distribución y nicho ecológico de abejas melíferas (Hymenoptera: Apidae) en Ibarra, Ecuador." SATHIRI 20, no. 1 (2025): 165–84. https://doi.org/10.32645/13906925.1337.
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Apis mellifera L. is a species of vital importance as pollinator, whose presence is fundamental for the proper development of ecosystems. However, various anthropogenic factors cause alterations in its ecological niche. This research analyzes the presence of Apis mellifera along with bioclimatic, environmental, and agricultural variables using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to determine the niche and potential distribution of the species within the study area. As a result, it was determined that the ecological niche of honeybees is mainly determined by factors such as the type of vegetation cover, honey production, and the annual range of temperature (Bio7), identifying areas with high suitability covering a total of 645.99 hectares corresponding to grasslands and crops, especially in the San Antonio de Ibarra parish. The model was validated using the AUC (0.904) and TSS (0.618) values. Certainly, it is evident that Apis mellifera finds its ideal habitat in small and specific areas where it would be feasible to promote the development of beekeeping.
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Hof, Christian, Martin Brändle, D. Matthias Dehling, et al. "Habitat stability affects dispersal and the ability to track climate change." Biology Letters 8, no. 4 (2012): 639–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0023.
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Habitat persistence should influence dispersal ability, selecting for stronger dispersal in habitats of lower temporal stability. As standing (lentic) freshwater habitats are on average less persistent over time than running (lotic) habitats, lentic species should show higher dispersal abilities than lotic species. Assuming that climate is an important determinant of species distributions, we hypothesize that lentic species should have distributions that are closer to equilibrium with current climate, and should more rapidly track climatic changes. We tested these hypotheses using datasets from 1988 and 2006 containing all European dragon- and damselfly species. Bioclimatic envelope models showed that lentic species were closer to climatic equilibrium than lotic species. Furthermore, the models over-predicted lotic species ranges more strongly than lentic species ranges, indicating that lentic species track climatic changes more rapidly than lotic species. These results are consistent with the proposed hypothesis that habitat persistence affects the evolution of dispersal.
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Galán de Mera, Antonio, César Cáceres, and Adolfo González. "La vegetación de la alta montaña andina del sur del Perú." Acta Botanica Malacitana 28 (January 1, 2003): 121–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.24310/abm.v28i0.7271.
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RESUMEN. La vegetación de la alta montaña andina del sur del Perú. El presente artículo es un estudio fitosociológico de la vegetación de la alta montaña del sur del Perú (departamentos de Arequipa, Moquegua, Puno y Tacna). En base a la relación existente entre geomorfología, litología, altitud, pisos bioclimáticos, intervalos de precipitación, descripción bioclimática, y la combinación florística en determinados biotopos, fueron diferenciadas las comunidades de 9 clases (Anthochloo-Dielsiochloetea, Calamagrostietea vicunarum, Lantano-Chusqueetea, Lemnetea minoris, Not holaenetea niveae, Phragmito- Magnocaricetea, Plantaginetea australis, Planta gini rigidae-Di.slichietea muscoidis y Potametea). Como resultado, fueron descritos 2 nuevos órdenes (Calamagrostietalia nitidulae y Salpichroetalia glandulosae), 7 alianzas (Azorello-Festucion, Belloo-Salpichroion, Cha etantherion sphaeroidalis, Cortaderion jubatae, Fabianimi stephanii, Hypsello-Plantaginion y Nototrich ion obcuneatae), 10 asociaciones (Belloo- Dissanthelietum, Chersodomo-Valerianetum, Cortaderietuin jubatae, Diplostephio-Parastrephietum, Dunalio-Baccharidetum, Nototricho-Xenophylletum, Parastrephio-Festucetum, Ranunculetum limoselloidis, Stuckenietum punensis y Wernerio-Puccinellietum) y 16 subasociaciones y comunidades fragmentarias (comunidades basales, BC y comunidades derivadas. DC).Palabras clave. Vegetación, fitosociología, Sur Perú, Andes.ABSTRACT. The vegetation of the high Andean mountain of Southern Peru. In this paper, a phytosociological study about the vegetation of the mountain of Southern Peru (Arequipa, Moquegua, Puno and Tacna departments) is presented. In base of the relation between geomorphology, lithology, altitude, bioclimatic belts, precipitation intervals, bioclimatic description, and the floristic combination in specific biotopes, communities of 9 classes (Anthochloo-Dielsiochloetea, Calamagrostietea vicunarum, Lantano-Chusqueetea, Lemnetea minoris, Not holaenetea niveae, Phragmito-Magnocaricetea, Plantaginetea australis, Plantagini rigidae-Distichietea muscoidis and Potametea) were differenced. As result, 2 new orders (Calamagrostietalia nitidulae and Salpichroetalia glandulosae), 7 alliances (Azorello-Festucion, Belloo-Salpichroion, Chaetantherion sphaeroidalis, Cortaderion jubatae, Fabianion stephan ii, Hypsello-Plantaginion and Nototrichion obcuneatae), 10 associations (Belloo-Dissanthelietum, Che rsodomo-Valerianetum, Cortaderietumjubatae, Diplostephio-Parastrephietum, Dunalio-Baccharidetum, Nototricho-Xenophylletum, Paras. trephio-Fe.s. tucetum, Ranunculetum 1 imoselloidi s, Stuckenietum punensis and Wernerio- Puccinellienon) and 16 subassociations and phragmentary communities (basal communities, BC and derived communities, DC) are described.Key words. Vegetation, phytosociology, Southern Peru, Andes.
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Cîșlariu, Alina Georgiana, Ciprian Claudiu Mânzu, Mioara Dumitrașcu, et al. "Invasive Traits of Symphyotrichum squamatum and S. ciliatum: Insights from Distribution Modeling, Reproductive Success, and Morpho-Structural Analysis." Biology 14, no. 1 (2025): 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14010047.
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Understanding the drivers of invasive species’ success is essential for predicting and managing their ecological impacts. Symphyotrichum squamatum, a South American species first recorded in Bucharest in 2015, is currently expanding into urban and peri-urban areas of Romania, raising concerns about its invasive potential. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of its invasiveness by integrating species distribution modeling, a reproductive trait analysis, and morpho-structural evaluations. To deepen our understanding, we compare S. squamatum with S. ciliatum, a species already invasive in Romania, to identify shared traits potentially driving their invasiveness. Using R software (version 4.3.0) with bioclimatic variables, we modeled the potential distribution of both species. The reproductive success of S. squamatum was evaluated through germination tests on seeds from distinct Romanian populations, while anatomical analyses revealed adaptations potentially linked to invasiveness. Our findings indicate that S. squamatum shares traits with successful invaders, as highlighted by its comparison with the invasive S. ciliatum. However, its expansion in Romania appears to be constrained by environmental factors, with continentality emerging as a key determinant influencing the distribution of both species. This study highlights the importance of combining ecological modeling with trait-based analyses to assess invasive potential, offering a robust framework for managing alien species.
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Rodríguez Flores, Zayner Edin, Yanet Moredia Rosete, Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Valencia, and Yolanda Leticia Fernández Pavía. "Prediction of Environmentally Suitable Areas for Zephyranthes (Amaryllidaceae) in Mexico." Ecologies 5, no. 4 (2024): 571–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ecologies5040034.
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The genus Zephyranthes is widely represented in Mexico, with 37 species of ornamental and medical importance. However, basic aspects of the genus, such as the environmental variables that determine its presence in certain sites, have not yet been addressed, which limits the knowledge of its ecology, potential applications and possible conservation strategies. Potential distribution models were generated with data on the presence of 13 species of the genus Zephyranthes, using 28 bioclimatic and edaphic variables with the maximum entropy method (Maxent). Of these variables, the most important and least correlated for each species were chosen by principal component analysis (PCA); the occurrence data were obtained from digital platforms and filtered to reduce spatial autocorrelation. The resulting models, had AUC values > 0.90 and Kappa index values > 0.6, in addition to being significant according to the results of the binomial test applied (p < 0.05). Maximum temperatures and humidity, as well as annual precipitation, are relevant environmental variables for the niche models. Most species are distributed in the biogeographic province of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt. Zephyranthes concolor and Zephyranthes lindleyana were the species with the largest potential range. The species with the most restricted potential distribution were Zephyranthes citrina and Zephyranthes sessilis. The most determinant variables for species with neotropical affinity are different from those identified for Nearctic species, reflecting niche differentiation, congruent with the evolutionary history of Zephyranthes.
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Savvides, A., E. Malaktou, M. Philokyprou, and A. Michael. "A Spatial Analysis Methodology for the examination of Solar, Wind and Sky View Conditions in Traditional Squares of the Eastern Mediterranean Region." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1196, no. 1 (2023): 012079. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1196/1/012079.
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Abstract The study of microclimatic conditions, their ability to form determinant parameters of urban morphologies and their impact on the choices for the social interaction of dwellers, has been of increased interest to researchers over the last decades. In this context, spatial analysis methods for assessing the microclimate in public spaces, which can be exploited as means for improving the quality of life in the built environment, are increasingly used. In the framework of this study a spatial analysis methodology of solar, wind and sky view considerations was followed involving public open spaces, i.e., squares, in traditional settlements of Cyprus. Based on this investigation, the study presented herein focused on the spatial examination of the solar, wind and sky view conditions in three typical traditional case-study squares in different climatic regions of Cyprus, pertaining to the Mediterranean climate. The purpose of the study is to discern the potentials and limitations of various traditional built form structured outlines with respect to climate-conscious design, but more importantly to present qualitative comfort assessment tools which allow a spatial – visual perception of the parameters affecting thermal comfort. The assessment methodology which has been applied is based on seasonal image processing techniques of solar, wind and sky view factor parameters. The resulting thermal comfort maps open the road for a major advance in assessing outdoor open spaces through bioclimatic principles and can be used as tool by architects and planners to identify outdoor public spaces that require design interventions or as an initial design step in implementing new climate-based outdoor public spaces.
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Soriano, Pilar, Elena Estrelles, M. Isabel Martínez-Nieto, Antonio Doménech-Carbó, Marco Galiè, and Edoardo Biondi. "Environmental predictors of seed germination in two Halocnemum species from Mediterranean (Balearic, Tyrrenic and Adriatic) and Red Sea coastal salt marshes." Seed Science Research 32, no. 4 (2022): 246–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0960258522000253.
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AbstractReproductive strategies for specific populations are closely related to environmental factors. Consequently, they are fundamental for conservation plans and the management of threatened habitats like salt marshes. From this viewpoint, germination strategy under different temperatures and salt conditions, voltammetric parameters and molecular analysis were performed and compared in six Halocnemum populations (four of H. cruciatum and two of H. strobilaceum) growing on Mediterranean (Balearic, Tyrrenic and Adriatic) and Red Sea coasts to establish the relation to environmental variables. Significant interpopulation differences were found in all the evaluated parameters. The Mediterranean populations showed a variable opportunistic germination strategy that was directly related to the drought period length at the studied sites. Consequently, potential environmental predictors of seed response were identified. The most noteworthy were bioclimate, soil texture, continentality index, winter temperatures and summer precipitations. Additionally, voltammetric parameters were evidenced as indicators of maternal plant stress levels and, thus, as potential determinants of future seed responses. The phylogenetic analyses showed a split into two species that did not correspond to germination response. The phylogeographic analyses showed interpopulation differences in haplotype composition for H. cruciatum, but not for H. strobilaceum. In conclusion, the tight connection between seed responses and the ecological parameters of natural populations as an adaptation for successful seedling emergence was proved regardless of its phylogenetic relations.
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Demydenko, O., and V. Velichko. "Self-regulation and management of fertility restoration of typical chernozem in agroecosystems." Agricultural Science and Practice 3, no. 2 (2016): 63–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/agrisp3.02.063.
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Aim. To investigate the process of enhancing the self-organization and self-regulation of chernozem towards natural organization under the impact of long-term soil-protective surface tillage and to determine its impact on enhancing the ability of chernozem to adapt to environmental changes, preserving agroecological stability of the agroecosystem of the Left-Bank Forest-Steppe of Ukraine. Methods. Field, laboratory, computational, mathematical and statistical. Results. The complex years-long studies (1992–2015) demonstrated that the com- bination of soil-protective technologies of cultivating crops in the agroecosystems is a factor of affecting the character, orientation and self-regulation of energy- and mass exchange in a complicated network of interac- tions and interrelations of chernozems in agroecosystems. The determinant and governing impact in restoring the fertility of typical chernozem in the Left-Bank Forest-Steppe of Ukraine is soil-protective technologies of cultivating agricultural crops, based on surface tillage. The energy-wise appropriateness of creating the porous space of chernozem in conditions of soil-protective treatment should be deemed as thermodynamic code of soil formation or the process of implementing the “memory” about the morphogenicity of spatial soil form of chernozem of a high self-organization degree, which is in direct correlation with the process of enhancing the residual features of natural soil formation and accumulative orientation of fertility indices. Conclusions. The soil-protective system of agriculture should be viewed as a complex of methods and technologies of systemic or ecologically reasonable use of anthropogenic and natural energy resources. It creates the background to solve the main problem of agriculture – rational use of chernozem fertility with simultaneous extensive resto- ration, which ensures more complete use of the bioclimatic potential with optimal exploitation of natural and anthropogenic resources of the Left-Bank Forest-Steppe territory.
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Blanco, Saúl, Margarita Fernández-Aláez, and Eloy Bécares. "Efficiency of top-down control depends on nutrient concentration in a Mediterranean shallow lake: A mesocosm study." Marine and Freshwater Research 59, no. 10 (2008): 922. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf07212.
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In shallow lakes, the influence of top-down control is considered to be less important under a Mediterranean bioclimate, although little experimental data support this hypothesis. The present study aimed to experimentally assess the importance of top-down forces in the trophic status of Mediterranean shallow lakes. A bifactorial mesocosm experiment was carried out in a shallow lake using a range of nutrient concentrations and fish population densities. The results demonstrated an expected increase in turbidity levels as nutrients and fish density increased, as a result of both sediment resuspension and chlorophyll a concentrations. Nevertheless, at higher nutrient additions, turbidity decreased in the mesocosms in response to cladoceran proliferation because the fishes were unable to control zooplankton growth under such conditions. Fish diet content analysis showed a generalist diet with an important contribution of non-planktonic components; the proportion of zooplankton in the diet contents increased with nutrient additions. Fishes preferred cladocerans over copepods and rotifers, these latter taxa dominated the resulting zooplankton community. Some fish-added mesocosms retained high transparency levels, most likely because of physiological changes in response to high ammonium concentrations. In summary, the dietary spectrum of Chondrostoma arcasii [Steindachner], despite some electivity patterns, depends largely on available resources. The trophic ecology of cyprinids, acting both through direct and indirect effects on food webs, is a determinant factor explaining, in part, stable high turbidity levels in many shallow lakes.
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Deng, Zeshuai, Xin Xia, Mu Zhang, et al. "Predicting the Spatial Distribution of the Mangshan Pit Viper (Protobothrops mangshanensis) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Modeling." Forests 15, no. 4 (2024): 723. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f15040723.
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This study explores the critical issue of understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of the highly endangered forest-dwelling Mangshan pit viper (Protobothrops mangshanensis) in China. Through the application of the MaxEnt model, high-resolution bioclimatic datasets, and species occurrence data, the research aims to elucidate the spatial and temporal dynamics of P. mangshanensis distribution from the present to the years 2050 and 2070. Through the integration of three climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and exploring different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585), the study seeks to provide comprehensive insights into the potential variations in habitat suitability under diverse future climate conditions. The methodology employed involves the construction of the MaxEnt model utilizing the BioClim dataset and 83 species occurrence points. The SSP scenarios mentioned above represent future climate change scenarios, and the accuracy of the model is evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Key findings reveal that the MaxEnt model exhibits high accuracy (AUC = 0.998), pinpointing the current suitable habitat for P. mangshanensis to be confined to the Mangshan area within the Nanling Mountains, covering an approximate area of 1023.12 km2. However, projections based on future climate scenarios suggest notable shifts in habitat suitability dynamics. While potential suitable habitats may emerge in the northwest of the current range, the existing suitable habitats are anticipated to undergo significant reduction or even complete disappearance. Notably, precipitation during the driest month emerges as a critical determinant influencing the distribution of the species. In conclusion, the study underscores the exacerbating impact of climate change on habitat deterioration and survival risks for P. mangshanensis, emphasizing the urgent need for conservation measures to safeguard the remaining suitable habitats for this endangered species. The implications of these findings are far-reaching, with the anticipated contraction of the snake’s range potentially leading to its disappearance and increased habitat fragmentation. By shedding light on the potential distributional changes of P. mangshanensis in Mangshan, the research provides valuable insights for informing targeted conservation strategies and policy interventions aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on endangered species.
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Rahimi, Ehsan, Pinliang Dong, and Chuleui Jung. "How Do Climate and Latitude Shape Global Tree Canopy Structure?" Forests 16, no. 3 (2025): 432. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16030432.
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Understanding global patterns of tree canopy height and density is essential for effective forest management and conservation planning. This study examines how these attributes vary along latitudinal gradients and identifies key climatic drivers influencing them. We utilized high-resolution remote sensing datasets, including a 10 m resolution canopy height dataset aggregated to 1 km for computational efficiency, and a 1 km resolution tree density dataset derived from ground-based measurements. To quantify the relationships between forest structure and environmental factors, we applied nonlinear regression models and climate dependency analyses, incorporating bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim dataset. Our key finding is that latitude exerts a dominant but asymmetric control on tree height and density, with tropical regions exhibiting the strongest correlations. Tree height follows a quadratic latitudinal pattern, explaining 29.3% of global variation, but this relationship is most pronounced in the tropics (−10° to 10° latitude, R2 = 91.3%), where warm and humid conditions promote taller forests. Importantly, this effect differs by hemisphere, with the Southern Hemisphere (R2 = 67.1%) showing stronger latitudinal dependence than the Northern Hemisphere (R2 = 35.3%), indicating climatic asymmetry in forest growth dynamics. Tree density exhibits a similar quadratic trend but with weaker global predictive power (R2 = 7%); however, within the tropics, latitude explains 90.6% of tree density variation, underscoring strong environmental constraints in biodiverse ecosystems. Among climatic factors, isothermality (Bio 3) is identified as the strongest determinant of tree height (R2 = 50.8%), suggesting that regions with stable temperature fluctuations foster taller forests. Tree density is most strongly influenced by the mean diurnal temperature range (Bio 2, R2 = 36.3%), emphasizing the role of daily thermal variability in tree distribution. Precipitation-related factors (Bio 14 and Bio 19) moderately explain tree height (~33%) and tree density (~25%), reinforcing the role of moisture availability in structuring forests. This study advances forest ecology research by integrating high-resolution canopy structure data with robust climate-driven modeling, revealing previously undocumented hemispheric asymmetries and biome-specific climate dependencies. These findings improve global forest predictive models and offer new insights for conservation strategies, particularly in tropical regions vulnerable to climate change.
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Pérez Latorre, Andrés V., Patricia Navas, David Navas, Yolanda Gil, and Baltasar Cabezudo. "Datos sobre la flora y vegetación de la cuenca del río Guadiamar (Sevilla-Huelva, España)." Acta Botanica Malacitana 27 (December 1, 2002): 189–228. http://dx.doi.org/10.24310/abm.v27i0.7326.
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RESUMEN. Datos sobre la flora y vegetación de la cuenca del río Guadiamar (Sevilla-Huelva, España). Sc ha realizado un estudio florístico, fitocenológico y fitogeográfico de la cuenca hidrográfica del río Guadiamar (Sevilla-Huelva, Andalucía, España). Bioclimáticamente domina en la cuenca el piso termomecliterráneo (con un reducto mesomediterráneo al NW) y el ombrotipo subhúmedo (seco al S). Se propone una sectorización fitogeográfica para la cuenca a un nivel inferior al de sector y resaltando el papel de conector de la cuenca del Guadiamar entre la provincia Luso-Extremadurense (Sierra Morena) y la Tingitano-Onubo-Algarviense (arenales y marismas). Como resultado sobre la flora, se presenta un conjunto de especies de interés por estar protegidas, por su escasez en la cuenca, en Andalucía Occidental, o por indicar determinados ecosistemas frágiles o singulares. Respecto a la vegetación, el territorio presenta una gran diversidad de asociaciones y comunidades (96), algunas de ellas son novedades sintaxonómicas: Imperato cylindricae-Scirpetum holoschoeni, Cisto salvifolii-Ulicetum australis lavanduletosum sampaianae, Malcomio trilobae-Hytnenocarpetum hamosi loeflingietosunz baeticae, Ornithopi isthmocarpi-Anthoxantetum ovati y vulpietosum alopecuroris, Ranunculo peltati-Callitrichetum brutiae y Ranunculo hederacei-Callitrichetum stagnalis. Además se lectotipifican Polypogono monspeliensis-Ranunculetum scelerati y Scolymo maculati-Sylibetum mariani. Se han catalogado 13 series de vegetación, 5 de tipo climatófilo, dominadas por fagáceas (Quercus suber y Quercus rotundtfolia) con faci aciones de Pious pinea, Olea europaea var. sylvestris o Quercus broteroi, y 8 de tipo edafohidrófi lo (caracterizadas respectivamente por Populus alba, Fraxinus angustifolia, Ulmus minor, Alnus glutinosa, Salix pedicellata, Nerium oleander, Tamariz gallica y Securinega tinctorea). Así mismo, aparecen complejos edafogénicos (mosaicos) de vegetación halófila en Entremuros (Parque Natural de Doñana) y de vegetación dulceacuícola por toda la cuenca. La vegetación permanente edafoxerófila corresponde a Genistetum polyanthi. Se presentan un esquema sintaxonómico, tablas fitosociológicas de novedades y un mapa de las series de vegetación.Palabras clave. Flora, vegetación, Fitogeografía, río Guadiamar, Sevilla, Huelva, Andalucía, España.SUMMARY. Flora and vegetation in the basin of the Guadiamar river (Seville-Huelva, Spain). We have carried out a floristical, phytocoenological and phytogeographical study about the Guadiamar river basin (Seville-Huelva, Andalusia, Spain). Thermo-mediterranean bioclimatic belt (appearing a little meso-mediterranean belt area towards NW) and sub humid ombro-type (dry towards S) characterises the basin. It is proposed a phytogeographical scheme under sector level for the Guadiamar basin. Stands out the corridor role of the Guadiamar river between the phytogeographical provinces Luso-Extremadurense (Sierra Morena) and Tingitano-Onubo- Algarviense (sandy lands and marshes). A group of species are highlighted as a result of being protected, rare in the basin or in Western Andalusia or because of living in fragile or singular ecosystems. Regarding the vegetation, a high diversity of plant communities has been found (96), some of them are new syntaxa or combinations: Impercaocylindricae-Scirpetumholoschoeni, Cisto salvifolii-Ulicetum australis lavanduletosum sampaianae, Malcomio trilobae- flymenocarpetum hamosi loeflingietosum baeticae, Ornithopi istlunocarpi-Anthoxantetum ovati and vulpietosutn alopecuroris, Ranunculo peltati-Callitrichetum brutiae, Ranunculo hederacei- Callitrichetum stagnalis. Two syntaxa are lectotypified here: Polypogono tnonspeliensis- Ranunculetum scelerati and Scolymo niaculati-Sylibetum mariani. 13 vegetation series have been recorded: 5 climactic, characterised by Quercus sober and Quercus rotundifolia showing variants with Pious pinea, Olea sylvestris or Quercus broteroi. 8 series are linked to riverside biotopes and respectively characterised by Populus alba, Fraxinus angustifolia, Ulmus minor, Alnus glutinosa, Salix pee/ice//ala, Nerium oleander, Tamarix gal lica and Securinega tinctorea. Halophytic vegetation (mosaics) is located in Entremuros near the Doilana marshes and also wetlands with hydrophilic vegetation are spread all over the basin. Soil-xeric permanent vegetation is represented by Genistetum polyanthi. A syntaxonomical scheme, phytosociological tables and one map of the vegetation series are also included.Key words. Flora, vegetation, Phytogeography, Guadiamar river basin, Seville, Huelva, Andalusia, Spain.
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Silva, G. Carolina, Viviana Griselda Solís Neffa, Gabriela Zuquim, and Henrik Balslev. "Biogeography and environmental preferences of Butia yatay (Mart.) Becc." Ecology and Evolution 13, no. 11 (2023). http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10749.
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AbstractDuring the Quaternary, Chaco Phytogeographic Domain (Chaco) flora in subtropical South America experienced temperature and humidity fluctuations, primarily driven by wind dynamics, leading to significant shifts in species distribution. The palm Butia yatay is endemic to the Chaco and thrives in areas characterized by a warm–rainy climate and mostly restricted to sandy soils. To investigate the current geographic distribution of suitable habitat for B. yatay while assessing the significance of soil variables, we employed two distinct algorithms in species distribution modeling (SDM). We also determined whether the distribution of B. yatay has changed since the Pleistocene and whether these changes align with previously proposed Pleistocene refugia. In the present SDMs, we considered two separate sets of predictors, one set with bioclimatic variables only and the other set with bioclimatic topographic and soil variables. Additionally, we reconstructed the historical geographic distribution of suitable habitats using bioclimatic data. Our results suggested that the primary determinants of B. yatay's current distribution include precipitation and temperature of the driest month and soil cation exchange capacity. Incorporating soil variables affected the estimated size and range of suitable areas. Projections into the past indicated similar suitable habitat distributions during interglacial periods compared with the present. During the Last Glacial Maximum, climatically suitable habitat may have shifted northward, partially overlapping with previously suggested Pleistocene refugia located between the Paraná and Uruguay Rivers. These findings indicate the main factors driving the distribution and ecology of B. yatay and enhance understanding of subtropical flora shifts during the Quaternary. The approach also may prove valuable for other studies within the Chaco.
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Brough, Siqi C., Luke Caddell, Raymond J. Liou, Advait Patil, Giulio De Leo, and Joseph D. Forrester. "Predicting Increased Incidence of Common Antibiotic-Resistant and Antibiotic-Associated Pathogens Using Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling." Journal of Infectious Diseases, March 27, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiae145.
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Abstract The Centers for Disease Control estimates antibiotic-associated pathogens result in 2.8 million infections and 38,000 deaths annually in the United States. This study applies species distribution modeling to elucidate the impact of environmental determinants of human infectious disease in an era of rapid global change. We modeled methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridioides difficile using 31 publicly accessible bioclimatic, healthcare, and sociodemographic variables. Ensemble models were created from 8 unique statistical and machine learning algorithms. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition codes, we identified 305,528 diagnoses of methicillin-resistant S.aureus and 302,001 diagnoses of C.difficile presence. Three environmental factors – average maximum temperature, specific humidity, and agricultural land density – emerged as major predictors of increased methicillin-resistant S.aureus and C.difficile presence; variables representing healthcare availability were less important. Species distribution modeling may be a powerful tool for identifying areas at increased risk for disease presence and have important implications for disease surveillance systems.
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Diakité, Nana R., Patricia B. Koffi, Cyrille K. Konan, et al. "Variability of biological traits of Bulinus truncatus and Biomphalaria pfeifferi, the intermediate host snails of schistosomiasis, from three climatic zones of Côte d’Ivoire." Frontiers in Environmental Science 11 (December 7, 2023). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1193239.
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Background: Schistosomiasis is endemic throughout all regions of Côte d’Ivoire, however, species of the intermediate snail host vary across bioclimatic zones. Hence, a deeper knowledge of the influence of climatic on the life history traits of the intermediate snail host is crucial to understand the environmental determinants of schistosomiasis in a rapidly changing climate. The aim of this study was to run a common garden experiment to assess differences in survival, somatic growth and fecundity of both Bulinus truncatus and Biomphalaria pfeifferi snails collected in three different bioclimatic areas.Methods: A cross-sectional malacological survey was conducted in February 2021 in the south, center and north of Côte d’Ivoire. We sampled two populations of B. truncatus, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma haematobium, from northern and central Côte d’Ivoire, and two populations of Bi. pfeifferi, the intermediate host snail for Schistosoma mansoni, from the southern and central regions. Snails collected at the human-water contact sites were brought in the laboratory where they reproduced. The first generation snails (G1) for each population were reared under the same laboratory conditions, i.e., at 24°C–26°C, during 63 days (9 weeks), to estimate survival, growth, and fecundity.Results: We found that G1Bulinus snails from the north population showed higher survival and growth rates during our study and higher number of eggs at first reproduction, compared to the ones from the central region. For Bi. pfeifferi, no significant difference in survival rate was observed between G1 snails from the southern and central populations, whereas those from the south exhibited higher growth rates and higher number of eggs per individual at first reproduction than G1 snails from the central population.Conclusion: Our study provides evidence for heterogeneity in snails’ life-history traits in response to temperature among the populations from the three climatic regions. Further experiments from multiple populations are needed to confirm that snails express traits under optimal conditions, can lead to expansion of their geographical range and hence an increase in the risk of schistosomiasis transmission. Transplantation experiments will be required to assess implications of the changing climate on snails persistence, distribution and abundance.
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Gangoso, L., D. Aragonés, la Puente J. Martínez-de, et al. "Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain." Environmental Research 188 (September 1, 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109837.
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Changes in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution and how predicted changes in these drivers may alter their future distributions is therefore of major importance. However, the drivers of vector populations are largely specific to each vector species and region. Here, we identify the most important human-activity-related and bioclimatic predictors affecting the current distribution and habitat suitability of the mosquito Culex pipiens and potential future changes in its distribution in Spain. We determined the niche of occurrence (NOO) of the species, which considers only those areas lying within the range of suitable environmental conditions using presence data. Although almost ubiquitous, the distribution of Cx. pipiens is mostly explained by elevation and the degree of urbanization but also, to a lesser extent, by mean temperatures during the wettest season and temperature seasonality. The combination of these predictors highlights the existence of a heterogeneous pattern of habitat suitability, with most suitable areas located in the southern and northeastern coastal areas of Spain, and unsuitable areas located at higher altitude and in colder regions. Future climatic predictions indicate a net decrease in distribution of up to 29.55%, probably due to warming and greater temperature oscillations. Despite these predicted changes in vector distribution, their effects on the incidence of infectious diseases are, however, difficult to forecast since different processes such as local adaptation to temperature, vector-pathogen interactions, and human-derived changes in landscape may play important roles in shaping the future dynamics of pathogen transmission.
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O, Sungmin, and Seon Ki Park. "Global ecosystem responses to flash droughts are modulated by background climate and vegetation conditions." Communications Earth & Environment 5, no. 1 (2024). http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01247-4.
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AbstractFlash droughts and their physical processes have received increasing attention in recent years due to concerns about the potential of flash droughts to affect water resources and ecosystems. Yet to date, the response of ecosystems during flash drought events, particularly on a large scale, and the determinants of the ecosystem responses to flash droughts have been underexplored. Here we analyse temporal variations in vegetation anomalies during flash drought events at a global scale between 2001 and 2020 using observation-based leaf area index, gross primary productivity, and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data. We identify divergent ecosystem responses in terms of the timing and intensification of drought-induced vegetation stress across different regions around the world. Furthermore, we find that these regional differences are largely modulated by background climate and vegetation conditions, rather than meteorological conditions, with ecosystems being subjected to more rapidly developing and greater degrees of vegetation stress in arid and short vegetation-dominated regions as compared to humid forests. Our results highlight the spatially heterogeneous ecological impacts of flash droughts, implying the need to comprehensively integrate aspects of both atmospheric and bioclimatic properties in flash drought monitoring and forecasting systems to improve our ability to track their evolution and impacts.
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Mérel, Vincent, Patricia Gibert, Inessa Buch, et al. "The Worldwide Invasion of Drosophila suzukii Is Accompanied by a Large Increase of Transposable Element Load and a Small Number of Putatively Adaptive Insertions." Molecular Biology and Evolution, May 22, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msab155.
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Abstract Transposable elements (TEs) are ubiquitous and mobile repeated sequences. They are major determinants of host fitness. Here, we characterized the TE content of the spotted wing fly Drosophila suzukii. Using a recently improved genome assembly, we reconstructed TE sequences de novo and found that TEs occupy 47% of the genome and are mostly located in gene-poor regions. The majority of TE insertions segregate at low frequencies, indicating a recent and probably ongoing TE activity. To explore TE dynamics in the context of biological invasions, we studied the variation of TE abundance in genomic data from 16 invasive and six native populations of D. suzukii. We found a large increase of the TE load in invasive populations correlated with a reduced Watterson estimate of genetic diversity θw^ a proxy of effective population size. We did not find any correlation between TE contents and bioclimatic variables, indicating a minor effect of environmentally induced TE activity. A genome-wide association study revealed that ca. 2,000 genomic regions are associated with TE abundance. We did not find, however, any evidence in such regions of an enrichment for genes known to interact with TE activity (e.g., transcription factor encoding genes or genes of the piRNA pathway). Finally, the study of TE insertion frequencies revealed 15 putatively adaptive TE insertions, six of them being likely associated with the recent invasion history of the species.
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Soliman, Mustafa M., Magdi S. A. El‐Hawagry, and Abdallah M. Samy. "Re‐emergence of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) in Egypt: Predicting distribution shifts under climate changes." Medical and Veterinary Entomology, January 30, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1111/mve.12794.
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AbstractAedes aegypti, the primary vector of several medically significant arboviruses—including dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—was successfully eradicated from Egypt in 1963. However, since 2011, there have been increasing reports of its re‐emergence, alongside dengue outbreaks in southern Egyptian governorates, raising significant public health concerns. This study aimed to model the current and future distribution of Ae. aegypti in Egypt. Local occurrence data were integrated with bioclimatic, anthropogenic and biological environmental variables to identify key factors influencing the distribution of Ae. aegypti. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling demonstrated strong predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] mean = 0.975; true skill statistic [TSS] mean = 0.789). The key determinants of habitat suitability were identified as human population density, annual precipitation and the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). Current predictions indicate that suitable habitats for Ae. aegypti are concentrated in the Nile Valley, Nile Delta, Fayoum Basin, Red Sea coast and South Sinai. Projections under future climate change scenarios suggest an expansion of suitable habitats, particularly in the Nile Delta region. By 2050, the model predicts a 61%–68% increase in suitable habitat area, with a further 64%–69% increase by 2070, depending on the future climate scenarios. These findings are crucial for informing vector control and disease prevention strategies, particularly considering Egypt's status as one of the world's leading tourist destinations.
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Pramanik, Malay, Poonam Singh, and Ramesh C. Dhiman. "Identification of bio-climatic determinants and potential risk areas for Kyasanur forest disease in Southern India using MaxEnt modelling approach." BMC Infectious Diseases 21, no. 1 (2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06908-9.
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Abstract Background Kyasanur forest disease (KFD), known as monkey fever, was for the first time reported in 1957 from the Shivamogga district of Karnataka. But since 2011, it has been spreading to the neighbouring state of Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu. The disease is transmitted to humans, monkeys and by the infected bite of ticks Haemaphysalis spinigera. It is known that deforestation and ecological changes are the main reasons for KFD emergence, but the bio-climatic understanding and emerging pathways remain unknown. Methods The present study aims to understand the bio-climatic determinants of distribution of tick vector of KFD in southern India using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The analysis was done using 34 locations of Haemaphysalis spinigera occurrence and nineteen bio-climatic variables from WorldClim. Climatic variables contribution was assessed using the Jackknife test and mean AUC 0.859, indicating the model performs with very high accuracy. Results Most influential variables affecting the spatial distribution of Haemaphysalis spinigera were the average temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10, contributed 32.5%), average diurnal temperature range (bio2, contributed 21%), precipitation of wettest period (bio13, contributed 17.6%), and annual precipitation (bio12, contributed 11.1%). The highest probability of Haemaphysalis spinigera presence was found when the mean warmest quarter temperature ranged between 25.4 and 30 °C. The risk of availability of the tick increased noticeably when the mean diurnal temperature ranged between 8 and 10 °C. The tick also preferred habitat having an annual mean temperature (bio1) between 23 and 26.2 °C, mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) between 20 and 28 °C, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8) between 22.5 and 25 °C. Conclusions The results have established the relationship between bioclimatic variables and KFD tick distribution and mapped the potential areas for KFD in adjacent areas wherein surveillance for the disease is warranted for early preparedness before the occurrence of outbreaks etc. The modelling approach helps link bio-climatic variables with the present and predicted distribution of Haemaphysalis spinigera tick.
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Lopez‐Bustamante, Pablo, Alanis Rosa‐Santiago, Catherine M. Hulshof, and Janet Franklin. "Tree functional traits across Caribbean island dry forests are remarkably similar." Journal of Biogeography, October 16, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14743.
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AbstractAimTo examine the climatic and biogeographic drivers of plant trait variation across Caribbean tropical dry forests, a system characterised by high rates of plant endemism despite low moisture availability, high rainfall variability and persistent exposure to hurricanes.LocationCaribbean tropical dry forests.TaxonWoody plants.MethodsWe used a database of 572 woody vegetation plots spanning across the Caribbean, including Florida. We then extracted seed mass, specific leaf area and wood density from global trait databases. We supplemented additional trait data from herbaria collections and calculated phylogenetic imputation of traits. Furthermore, we calculated presence–absence community means and functional diversity and correlated these metrics with bioclimatic variables in addition to island and dry forest area using generalised additive models.ResultsDespite occurring in climatically distinct regions, Caribbean tropical dry forests are functionally similar, and the trait space of many dry forests are nested within the functional space of others. In line with island biogeographic theory, island area, dry forest area and island isolation were correlated with functional diversity. Although temperature and precipitation were important determinants of trait variation and functional diversity, environmental variables differently impacted trait variation and the variance explained was generally low.Main ConclusionsThe high functional overlap among Caribbean dry forests is remarkable given the broad climatic gradient across these islands. High functional overlap suggests that environmental and biogeographic filters constrain plant form and function in these intrinsically fascinating systems. The trait space of these insular dry forest systems points to dispersal‐limitation, in addition to high temperature and water limitations, and favouring persistence strategies to withstand high frequency hurricane disturbance.
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Waheed, Muhammad, Fahim Arshad, Sehrish Sadia, et al. "From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia." Ecology and Evolution 15, no. 3 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71127.
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ABSTRACTEphedra intermedia, a medicinally significant plant, is an important component of arid and semi‐arid ecosystems across Central and South Asia. This research sought to predict the present and future distribution of E. intermedia by applying ecological niche modeling (ENM) methods. The model incorporated comprehensive bioclimatic and edaphic variables to predict the species' habitat suitability. The results demonstrated high predictive accuracy, highlighting the importance of temperature seasonality, annual temperature range, soil pH, and nitrogen content as key species distribution determinants. The current habitat suitability map revealed core areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan mountain regions. Under future climate change scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s, the model projected a significant upward and northward shift in suitable habitats, coupled with a notable contraction in the extent of highly suitable areas, particularly under the high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario. The predicted range shifts reflect the species' sensitivity to increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. This suggests a potential loss of suitable habitats in low‐elevation and southern parts of its range. Including edaphic factors in the model provided novel insights, specifically highlighting the critical role of soil properties, such as soil pH and nitrogen content, in shaping the ecological niche of E. intermedia. These findings complement the observed upward and northward shifts in habitat suitability under future climate scenarios, emphasizing the species' reliance on high‐altitude refugia as climate conditions change. The results underscore important implications for conservation planning, suggesting that strategies should prioritize the protection of these refugial habitats while also considering measures such as habitat connectivity and assisted migration to support the species' adaptation to shifting environmental conditions.
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Millet, Claude Patrick, Boris Delahaie, Frédéric Georget, et al. "Guadeloupe and Haiti's coffee genetic resources reflect the crop's regional and global history." PLANTS, PEOPLE, PLANET, October 10, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10584.
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Societal Impact StatementDespite strong historical declines, Guadeloupe and Haiti's coffee sectors remain important to rural communities' livelihood and resilience. Coffee also holds value as part of the islands' historical legacy and cultural identities. Furthermore, it is often grown in agroforestry systems providing important ecosystem services, which will become more important as these vulnerable islands work to adapt to a changing climate. Current efforts to revitalize coffee farms and target strategically important specialty markets would benefit from understanding existing genetic resources and the historical factors that shaped them. Our study reveals the rich history reflected in current coffee stands on the islands.Summary The West Indies, particularly former French colonies like Haiti and Guadeloupe, were central to the spread of coffee in the Americas. The histories of these Islands are shared until the 19th century, where they diverged significantly. Still, both Islands experienced a strong decline in their coffee sector. Characterizing the genetic and varietal diversity of their coffee resources and understanding historical factors shaping them can help support revitalization efforts. To that end, we performed Kompetitve Allele‐Specific PCR (KASP) genotyping of 80 informative single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers on field samples from across main coffee‐growing region of Guadeloupe, and two historically important ones in Haiti, as well as 146 reference accessions from international collections. We also compared bioclimatic variables from sampled geographic areas and searched for historical determinants of present coffee resources. At least five Coffea arabica varietal groups were found in Haiti, versus two in Guadeloupe, with admixed individuals in both. The traditional Typica variety is still present in both islands, growing across a variety of climatic environments. We also found Coffea canephora on both islands, with multiple likely origins, and identified C. liberica var. liberica in Guadeloupe. These differences are explained by the Islands' respective histories. Overall, Guadeloupe experienced fewer, but older introductions of non‐Typica coffee. By contrast, several recent introductions have taken place in Haiti, driven by local and global factors and reflecting the history of Arabica varietal development and spread. Diversity on these islands is dynamic, and our results reveal opportunities and limits to the future of Guadeloupean and Haitian coffee.
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Grey, Kerry-Anne, Wendy B. Foden, and Guy F. Midgley. "Bioclimatic controls of CO2 assimilation near range limits of the CAM succulent tree, Aloidendron dichotomum." Journal of Experimental Botany, September 6, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erac343.
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Abstract Aloidendron dichotomum appears to be undergoing the early stages of a range shift in response to anthropogenic climate change in south-western Africa. High mortality has been recorded in warmer populations, while population expansions have been recorded in cooler poleward parts of its range. This study aimed to determine the key environmental controls on A. dichotomum photosynthesis in areas of population expansion, to inform the potential attribution of directional population expansion to anthropogenic warming. Nocturnal acid accumulation and CO2 assimilation were measured in individuals growing under a range of temperature and watering treatments in a greenhouse experiment. In addition, nocturnal acid accumulation and PEPC activity were quantified in two wild populations at the most southerly and south-easterly range extents. Multiple lines of evidence confirmed that A. dichotomum performs crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM). Total nocturnal acid accumulation was highest at night-time temperatures of ~21.5°C, regardless of soil water availability, and night-time CO2 assimilation rates increased with leaf temperature, suggesting a causal link to the cool southern range limit. Leaf acidity at the start of the dark period was highly predictive of nocturnal acid accumulation in all individuals, implicating light availability during the day as an important determinant of nocturnal acid accumulation.
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Xie, Chunping, Boyang Huang, CY Jim, Dawei Liu, Chang Liu, and Zhenxiang Zhu. "Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered plant Cephalotaxus oliveri Mast. in China." Environmental Conservation, October 14, 2022, 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892922000376.
Full textAbstract:
Summary The coniferous shrub Oliver’s plum yew (Cephalotaxus oliveri) is endemic to southern China with potential medicinal use for cancer treatment and ecological value in sustaining China’s threatened subtropical forest ecosystems. Comprehensive understanding of the current spatial patterns of this vulnerable species vis-à-vis climatic conditions is crucial for its sustained economic use and conservation. Based on 100 reliable occurrence records and nine environmental variables, MaxEnt and QGIS programs were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of C. oliveri in China. Combined with percentage contribution and permutation importance, the jackknife statistical method was used to test and evaluate pertinent factors restricting the potential distribution of C. oliveri. The response curves of critical bioclimatic factors were employed to determine the potential species range. The current core potential distribution areas were concentrated in China’s central and south-west regions. Temperature was identified as the crucial determinant of species distribution patterns, particularly the mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Precipitation was a necessary but not critical secondary factor. These findings should inform the ex situ conservation and cultivation of C. oliveri in China and its introduction to other parts of the world for similar purposes.