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1

Alexandre, Hermine, Julie Faure, Steven Ginzbarg, John Clark, and Simon Joly. "Bioclimatic niches are conserved and unrelated to pollination syndromes in Antillean Gesneriaceae." Royal Society Open Science 4, no. 11 (November 2017): 170293. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.170293.

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The study of the evolution of abiotic niches can be informative regarding the speciation drivers in a given group. Yet, two factors that could potentially affect niche evolution have seldom been addressed concomitantly, which are biotic interactions and geographical isolation. In this study, we used as a model group the Antillean plant genera Gesneria and Rhytidophyllum (Gesneriaceae) to evaluate the effect of pollinators and geographical isolation on the bioclimatic niche. These genera possess species characterized by interspecific geographical isolation in different islands and are pollinated by different pollinators. Some species are pollinated by hummingbirds, other by bats, while some are more generalists and are pollinated by pollinators from both functional groups. After describing the bioclimatic niches of plant species, we measured niche overlap for species pairs and we fitted Brownian motion and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) evolution models with multiple evolutionary regimes to test for an effect of pollination strategy or geographical isolation on bioclimatic niche evolution of these plants. The analysis of niche overlap between plant species, which could not be corrected for phylogenetic relationships, showed that it was significantly influenced by pollination mode and island distribution. By contrast, the best fitting evolutionary model on niche optima and tolerance was always an OU model with a unique selective regime, suggesting that neither pollination strategy nor island isolation had an important effect on bioclimatic niches at a macroevolutionary scale. Instead, we conclude that bioclimatic niches of Antillean Gesneriaceae evolved under phylogenetic conservatism and hypothesize that this macroevolutionary pattern could result from adaptation to temporally variable climates in the Antilles.
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2

Martínez-Méndez, Norberto, Omar Mejía, Jorge Ortega, and Fausto Méndez-de la Cruz. "Climatic niche evolution in the viviparousSceloporus torquatusgroup (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae)." PeerJ 6 (January 9, 2019): e6192. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6192.

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The cold-climate hypothesis maintains that viviparity arose as a means to prevent increased egg mortality in nests owing to low temperatures, and this hypothesis represents the primary and most strongly supported explanation for the evolution of viviparity in reptiles. In this regard, certain authors have stated that viviparous species will exhibit speciation via climatic niche conservatism, with similar climatic niches being observed in allopatric sister species. However, this prediction remains to be tested with bioclimatic variables relevant to each viviparous group. In the present study, we examined climatic niche evolution in a group of North American viviparous lizards to determine whether their diversification is linked to phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC). We evaluated the phylogenetic signal and trait evolution of individual bioclimatic variables and principal component (PC) scores of a PC analysis, along with reconstructions of ancestral climate tolerances. The results suggest that diversification of theSceloporus torquatusgroup species is associated with both niche differentiation and PNC. Furthermore, we did not observe PNC across nearly all bioclimatic variables and in PC2 and PC3. However, in Precipitation Seasonality (Bio15), in Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (Bio19) and in PC1 (weakly associated with variability of temperature), we did observe PNC. Additionally, variation of the scores along the phylogeny and Pagel’s delta (δ) >1 of PC3 suggests a fast, recent evolution to dry conditions in the clade that sustainsS. serrifer.
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El‐Farhati, Haithem, Brahim Jaziri, Mohamed Wassim Hizem, and Saïd Nouira. "Distribution, bioclimatic niche and sympatry of two Erinaceidae in Tunisia." African Journal of Ecology 58, no. 2 (July 15, 2019): 193–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/aje.12671.

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4

Tytar, V. M., and Ya R. Oksentyuk. "Modelling the Bioclimatic Niche of a Cohort of Selected Mite Species (Acari, Acariformes) Associated with the Infestation of Stored Products." Vestnik Zoologii 53, no. 5 (October 1, 2019): 399–416. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/vzoo-2019-0036.

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Abstract In this study an attempt is made to highlight important variables shaping the current bioclimatic niche of a number of mite species associated with the infestation of stored products by employing a species distribution modeling (SDM) approach. Using the ENVIREM dataset of bioclimatic variables, performance of the most robust models was mostly influenced by: 1) indices based on potential evapotranspiration, which characterize ambient energy and are mostly correlated with temperature variables, moisture regimes, and 2) strong fluctuations in temperature reflecting the severity of climate and/or extreme weather events. Although the considered mite species occupy man-made ecosystems, they remain more or less affected by the surrounding bioclimatic environment and therefore could be subjected to contemporary climate change. In this respect investigations are needed to see how this will affect future management targets concerning the safety of food storages.
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5

Santos-Hernández, Antonio Fidel, Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas, Diódoro Granados-Sánchez, Antonio Villanueva-Morales, and Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo. "Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change." Forests 12, no. 2 (January 22, 2021): 119. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f12020119.

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The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.
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6

Olonova, Marina V., Anna S. Vedernikova, and Thomas Albtight. "Research of the ecologo-climatical niche of Brunnera sibirica Stev." Acta Biologica Sibirica 6 (November 6, 2020): 413–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/abs.6.e56144.

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Brunnera sibirica is a Southern-Siberian endemic herb. Being a Pliocene relict, it is included in Red Data Books of many Siberian regions. The aim of our study was to identify the climatic niche and territories suitable for this vulnerable species using the MaxEnt method. The climatic profile of B. sibirica was constructed using the BIOCLIM method with 19 bioclimatic variables. The research has revealed that the climatic conditions in the most of Siberian territory are not suitable for the growth of B. sibirica, which confirms its relic origin in the south of Siberia.
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7

Kabaš, Eva, Vera Batanjski, Vera Batanjski, Peter Glasnović, Dražen Vicić, Aljoša Tanasković, Nevena Kuzmanović, Dmitar Lakušić, and Jasmina Šinžar-Sekulić. "Towards Detecting Bioclimatic Niche - Species Distribution Modelling in Four Maple Species (Acer Spp.)." Acta Botanica Croatica 73, no. 2 (October 28, 2014): 401–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/botcro-2014-0007.

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Abstract The aim of this paper was firstly to describe the ecological and geographical differentiation of the four maple species (Acer spp.) in Serbia and Kosovo based on floristic and phytocoenological data, and secondly, to model their distributions in order to predict which areas the species can be expected in. The intention was also to compare the resulting prediction maps with the available field records and see whether there are any differences between the actual and the predicted ranges. The data set included 1979 species records and each record was accompanied by geographic coordinates. The geographi-cal analysis was performed on the chorological data (latitude, longitude, altitude), while the ecological was based on vegetation data relating to the association, alliance, order and class as well as on 19 bioclimatic parameters. The data set was georeferenced using GIS tools. The results demonstrated that the distribution patterns of all the analyzed species are mostly affected by the limiting effects of the variables related to precipitation and temperature of the dry and also the warm period. Their synergic limiting effects are the most important force shaping distribution patterns within a territory. These findings highlight the importance of defining bioclimatic profiles of species using different techniques of distribution modelling.
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Pinkard, E. A., D. J. Kriticos, T. J. Wardlaw, A. J. Carnegie, and Agathe Leriche. "Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model." Ecological Modelling 221, no. 23 (November 2010): 2828–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.017.

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9

Tytar, V., and N. Makarova. "Distribution Of The Freshwater Snail Species Fagotia (Gastropoda, Melanopsidae) In Ukraine According To Climatic Factors. I. Fagotia Esperi." Vestnik Zoologii 49, no. 4 (August 1, 2015): 341–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/vzoo-2015-0037.

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Abstract Maximum entropy niche modeling was employed as a tool to assess potential habitat suitability for the freshwater snail F. esperi (Férussac, 1823) in Ukraine for both contemporary climatic conditions and conditions projected for 2050. Of the 19 bioclimatic predictor variables used in the modeling, the “mean temperature seosonality” “mean temperature of driest quarter” and “precipitation of warmest quarter” were the three most important in predicting habitat suitability and distribution of this mollusk species.
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10

Gudkova, P. D., M. V. Olonova, and D. S. Feoktistov. "Сравнение эколого-климатических ниш двух видов ковылей – Stipa sareptana A.K. Becker и S. krylovii Roshev. (Poaceae)." Ukrainian Journal of Ecology 7, no. 4 (December 22, 2017): 263–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.15421/2017_115.

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Each species besides of having the unique morphological pattern also has an unique ecologo-climatic niche and geographical range. The study of ecologico-climatic and geographic divergence can make significant contribution to understanding of the species genesis and its volume. The purpose of this paper was to compare the ecologo-climatic niches of the closely related species Stipa sareptana and S. krylovii in order to reveal their identity. The research allowed specifying the areas of both species. Using GIS methods and based on the points of presence and six independent bioclimatic characters, their potential ranges – areas where the climatic conditions are favorable for growth – were identified and ecologo-climatic niches revealed. It was established that the most important factors determining the distribution of S. krylovii and S. sareptana are the mean annual temperature and seasonality of precipitation. Other factors play a subordinate role. The comparison of ecological niches, generated by MaxEnt, showed their differences at a statistically significant level.
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11

Alves, Carlos Antônio Belarmino, Arliston Pereira Leite, João Everthon da Silva Ribeiro, Natan Medeiros Guerra, Suellen da Silva Santos, Ramon Santos Souza, Thamires Kelly Nunes Carvalho, et al. "Distribution and future projections for Schinopsis brasiliensis Engler (Anacardiaceae) in the semi-arid region of Brazil." Revista Brasileira de Gestão Ambiental e Sustentabilidade 7, no. 17 (2020): 1361–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.21438/rbgas(2020)071721.

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The advanced degradation and desertification processes, resulting from the anthropization of the semi-arid region of Brazil has led to an increasing need for research on the status of the occurrence of plant species. Schinopsis brasiliensis Engler, popularly known as "barauna", is recognized both for its exuberance and the use of its wood for different purposes. This species occurs in the Northeast and Midwest regions of Brazil and can be found in the Cerrado and Caatinga phytogeographic domains. This study aimed to analyze the local and regional distribution and abundance of S. brasiliensis in six municipalities in different regions of Paraíba State, as well as to perform the current and predictive modeling of the ecological niche of this species in the northeast region of Brazil, considering bioclimatic variables. On a state scale, this research was conducted in six rural communities, previously selected from studies already carried out by the Ethnobiology and Environmental Sciences Laboratory of the Federal University of Paraíba. On a regional scale, current and predictive modeling of the species' ecological niche was used, considering bioclimatic variables, based on data obtained from the WorldClim database (www.worldclim.org). The data showed a heterogeneous distribution in the populations of S. brasiliensis. The high number of adult specimens may indicate low resource extraction. Climate change, in different scenarios, does not significantly affect the distribution of the study species in the Northeastern Region of Brazil.
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12

Metcalf, Jessica L., Stefan Prost, David Nogués-Bravo, Eric G. DeChaine, Christian Anderson, Persaram Batra, Miguel B. Araújo, Alan Cooper, and Robert P. Guralnick. "Integrating multiple lines of evidence into historical biogeography hypothesis testing: a Bison bison case study." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1777 (February 22, 2014): 20132782. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2782.

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One of the grand goals of historical biogeography is to understand how and why species' population sizes and distributions change over time. Multiple types of data drawn from disparate fields, combined into a single modelling framework, are necessary to document changes in a species's demography and distribution, and to determine the drivers responsible for change. Yet truly integrated approaches are challenging and rarely performed. Here, we discuss a modelling framework that integrates spatio-temporal fossil data, ancient DNA, palaeoclimatological reconstructions, bioclimatic envelope modelling and coalescence models in order to statistically test alternative hypotheses of demographic and potential distributional changes for the iconic American bison ( Bison bison ). Using different assumptions about the evolution of the bioclimatic niche, we generate hypothetical distributional and demographic histories of the species. We then test these demographic models by comparing the genetic signature predicted by serial coalescence against sequence data derived from subfossils and modern populations. Our results supported demographic models that include both climate and human-associated drivers of population declines. This synthetic approach, integrating palaeoclimatology, bioclimatic envelopes, serial coalescence, spatio-temporal fossil data and heterochronous DNA sequences, improves understanding of species' historical biogeography by allowing consideration of both abiotic and biotic interactions at the population level.
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13

Sanchez, Iomar, Jonathan Liria, and María Dora Feliciangeli. "Ecological Niche Modeling of Seventeen Sandflies Species (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) from Venezuela." International Journal of Zoology 2015 (2015): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/108306.

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The purpose of this study is to create distribution models of seventeenLutzomyiaspecies in Venezuela. Presence records were obtained from field collections over 30 years by several research teams. We used maximum entropy method for model construction based on 30 arc-second resolution environmental layers: 19 bioclimatic variables, elevation, and land cover. Three species were distributed throughout north-central Venezuelan, two restricted to northern Venezuelan coast, and three throughout the west; five were restricted mainly to the Andean and finally two species within sparse pattern. The most important variables that contributed were related to precipitation. The environmental niche model of sandflies might be a useful tool to contribute to the understanding of the ecoepidemiological complexity of the transmission dynamics of the leishmaniases.
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14

Peil, Alessandra Carniato, and Rodrigo Aranda. "Potential Niche Modeling Distribution and Wing Geometric Morphometrics of Apis mellifera In The Brazilian Pantanal." Sociobiology 68, no. 2 (May 19, 2021): 5629. http://dx.doi.org/10.13102/sociobiology.v68i2.5629.

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The ecological niche models can be important for biogeographic patterns and processes and geometric morphometrics involves identifying changes that have occurred and comparing them to other specimens from different places and/or environmental conditions, assessing whether the environment is influencing such change. The present work aimed to verify the potential model of distribution for Apis mellifera and analyze if there is variation in the geometric morphometrics in wing venation in the Pantanal. We followed the hypothesis that there is variation in the geometric morphometrics of wings and that the geographically closest groups are more similar. For niche modeling, 44 geographical points and 19 bioclimatic variables were used. For morphometrics, twenty-two anatomical landmarks were plotted at the intersection of the veins. The X and Y coordinates were standardized through Procrustes superimposition, and PCA and MANOVA tests were performed. The predictive model indicated that the center of the Pantanal plain shows the greater probability of occurrence for the species. The most important bioclimatic variables were: average temperature in the rainiest quarter (84%) and average annual temperature (72%). Morphometric analyzes indicate that there was variation between the most distant geographic points. The slight variation between some closely located points in the Pantanal can be related to individual reflections of colonies from other points, since the species has great dispersion capacity. Thus, the distribution of A. mellifera in the Pantanal is possibly related to temperature also accompanied by human occupation and the geometric morphometrics of its wings reflecting aspects of dispersion and population dynamics in the Brazilian Pantanal.
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Srinivasulu, Aditya, Alembrhan Assefa, and Chelmala Srinivasulu. "Ecological niche modelling predicts significant impacts of future climate change on two endemic rodents in eastern Africa." Journal of Threatened Taxa 13, no. 5 (April 28, 2021): 18164–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.11609/jott.6715.13.5.18164-18176.

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The impact of climate change on rodents is well studied, however, many of these studies are restricted to the Americas. Small- to medium-sized rodents, especially murids, are restricted in their home range and microclimatic niche breadth, and are known to be more sensitive to changes in bioclimatic conditions over time. We analyzed the effect of future climatic scenarios in the near and distant future, using two global climate models (CanESM5 and MIROC-ES2L) for two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), on two eastern Africa endemic small-bodied mice: Stenocephalemys albipes and Mastomys awashensis. Our results indicate that while S. albipes showed increases in area of climatic suitability in the future, M. awashensis is predicted to suffer severe decline in the area of its fundamental niche.
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Choler, Philippe, and Richard Michalet. "Niche differentiation and distribution of Carex curvula along a bioclimatic gradient in the southwestern Alps." Journal of Vegetation Science 13, no. 6 (2002): 851. http://dx.doi.org/10.1658/1100-9233(2002)013[0851:ndadoc]2.0.co;2.

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17

Feilhauer, Hannes, Kate S. He, and Duccio Rocchini. "Modeling Species Distribution Using Niche-Based Proxies Derived from Composite Bioclimatic Variables and MODIS NDVI." Remote Sensing 4, no. 7 (July 9, 2012): 2057–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs4072057.

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18

Choler, Philippe, and Richard Michalet. "Niche differentiation and distribution of Carex curvula along a bioclimatic gradient in the southwestern Alps." Journal of Vegetation Science 13, no. 6 (February 24, 2002): 851–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2002.tb02114.x.

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Bedia, Joaquín, Sixto Herrera, and José Manuel Gutiérrez. "Dangers of using global bioclimatic datasets for ecological niche modeling. Limitations for future climate projections." Global and Planetary Change 107 (August 2013): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.04.005.

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20

Dos Santos, Charles Fernando, Cristiane Andrade De Barros, Rosana Halinski, and Betina Blochtein. "Occurrence and ecological data on an exotic solitary bee accidentally introduced in Brazil." EntomoBrasilis 13 (September 21, 2020): e891. http://dx.doi.org/10.12741/ebrasilis.v13.e891.

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Currently, there is a global concern regarding exotic species due to, among other factors, their great ability to reproduce and spread rapidly through the novel environment. As such, these species often compete for nesting places and food resources or convey pathogens. Anthidium manicatum (Linnaeus) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) is a non-native solitary bee occurring in Brazil. This study aimed to collect data about the occurrence sites of this species to investigate the historical sequence of its spread throughout the country. Based on this, we estimated population data such as the number of males and females, phenology and bioclimatic niche overlap with native species. The occurrence records were retrieved from speciesLink and Global Biodiversity Information Facility. All analyses were performed in R. The collected data demonstrate that, except for the 1960s, the records of the occurrence of A. manicatum in Brazil are few and constant, being notified since the mid-1930s in at least nine Brazilian states. In total, 778 individuals were sampled, with males being recorded about 1.7 times more than females. This species seems to be bivoltine, with generations in May and November. Anthidium manicatum showed a low and moderate bioclimatic niche overlap with two native species, Anthidium sertanicola Moure & Urban and Anthidium latum Schrottky, respectively. These data provide relevant information on the biology and status of A. manicatum in Brazil. However, since most Brazilian scientific collections have not digitalized their data in the platforms consulted here, some ecological features described here may be underestimated.
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21

Wang, H., I. C. Prentice, and J. Ni. "Data-based modelling and environmental sensitivity of vegetation in China." Biogeosciences 10, no. 9 (September 4, 2013): 5817–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013.

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Abstract. A process-oriented niche specification (PONS) model was constructed to quantify climatic controls on the distribution of ecosystems, based on the vegetation map of China. PONS uses general hypotheses about bioclimatic controls to provide a "bridge" between statistical niche models and more complex process-based models. Canonical correspondence analysis provided an overview of relationships between the abundances of 55 plant communities in 0.1° grid cells and associated mean values of 20 predictor variables. Of these, GDD0 (accumulated degree days above 0 °C), Cramer–Prentice α (an estimate of the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration) and mGDD5 (mean temperature during the period above 5 °C) showed the greatest predictive power. These three variables were used to develop generalized linear models for the probability of occurrence of 16 vegetation classes, aggregated from the original 55 types by k-means clustering according to bioclimatic similarity. Each class was hypothesized to possess a unimodal relationship to each bioclimate variable, independently of the other variables. A simple calibration was used to generate vegetation maps from the predicted probabilities of the classes. Modelled and observed vegetation maps showed good to excellent agreement (κ = 0.745). A sensitivity study examined modelled responses of vegetation distribution to spatially uniform changes in temperature, precipitation and [CO2], the latter included via an offset to α (based on an independent, data-based light use efficiency model for forest net primary production). Warming shifted the boundaries of most vegetation classes northward and westward while temperate steppe and desert replaced alpine tundra and steppe in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau. Increased precipitation expanded mesic vegetation at the expense of xeric vegetation. The effect of [CO2] doubling was roughly equivalent to increasing precipitation by ~ 30%, favouring woody vegetation types, particularly in northern China. Agricultural zones in northern China responded most strongly to warming, but also benefited from increases in precipitation and [CO2]. These results broadly conform to previously published findings made with the process-based model BIOME4, but they add regional detail and realism and extend the earlier results to include cropping systems. They provide a potential basis for a broad-scale assessment of global change impacts on natural and managed ecosystems.
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Wang, H., I. C. Prentice, and J. Ni. "Data-based modelling and environmental sensitivity of vegetation in China." Biogeosciences Discussions 10, no. 1 (January 3, 2013): 49–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-49-2013.

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Abstract. A process-oriented niche specification (PONS) model was constructed to quantify climatic controls on the distribution of ecosystems, based on the vegetation map of China. PONS uses general hypotheses about bioclimatic controls to provide a "bridge" between statistical niche models and more complex process-based models. Canonical correspondence analysis provided an overview of relationships between the abundances of 55 plant communities in 0.1° grid cells and associated mean values of 20 predictor variables. Of these, GDD (accumulated degree days above 0 °C) Cramer–Prentice α (an estimate of the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration) and mGDD5 (mean temperature during the period above 5 °C) showed the greatest predictive power. These three variables were used to develop generalized linear models for the probability of occurrence of 16 vegetation classes, aggregated from the original 55 types by k-means clustering according to bioclimatic similarity. Each class was hypothesized to possess a unimodal relationship to each bioclimate variable, independently of the other variables. A simple calibration was used to generate vegetation maps from the predicted probabilities of the classes. Modelled and observed vegetation maps showed good to excellent agreement (κ = 0.745). A sensitivity study examined modelled responses of vegetation distribution to spatially uniform changes in temperature, precipitation and [CO2], the latter included via an offset to α (based on an independent, data-based light use efficiency model for forest net primary production). Warming shifted the boundaries of most vegetation classes northward and westward while temperate steppe and desert replaced alpine tundra and steppe in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau. Increased precipitation expanded mesic vegetation at the expense of xeric vegetation. The effect of [CO2] doubling was roughly equivalent to increasing precipitation by ∼ 30%, favouring woody vegetation types, particularly in northern China. Agricultural zones in northern China responded most strongly to warming, but also benefited from increases in precipitation and [CO2]. These results broadly conform to previously published findings made with the process-based model BIOME4, but they add regional detail and realism and extend the earlier results to include cropping systems. They provide a potential basis for a broad-scale assessment of global change impacts on natural and managed ecosystems.
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23

Hannah, Cordilea, Joyce Sudandara Priya, and Kasthuri Bhai N. "Prediction of high CPT yielding ecotypes of Nothapodytes nimmoniana (Graham) Mabb. in Western Ghats using Ecological Niche Modeling." International Journal of Bio-Pharma Research 7, no. 12 (December 1, 2018): 2451–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.21746/ijbpr.2018.7.12.1.

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Camptothecin (CPT) is one of anticancer drug that is widely used for treating various cancers. In India, the drug is primarily sourced from natural habitats of the red listed species Nothapodytes nimmoniana. Ecological niche models are potential tools to define and predict the “ecological niche” of a species that exhibit ecological variations. The predicted ecological niche of a species indicates their survival fitness against Bioclimatic variables. The habitat suitability was predicted using Maxent for different ecotypes of Nothapodytes nimmoniana (Graham.) Mabb. In this study the synonymised populations of N. nimmoniana in the Western Ghats were cogitated as five different ecotypes. The predicted habitat suitability of different ecotypes were evaluated and correlated against CPT content using high performance thin layer chromatography. The study shows a significant positive correlation between the predicted habitat quality and chemical content. The ecotypes growing in sites predicted as highly suitable showed high content of camptothecin compared to those growing in poorly suitable sites. Thereby enabling precise identification of “chemical hot-spots” which will eventually establish a strong foot hold on monoculture of the species, an effort towards conservation.
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Wolf, N., A. Siegmund, C. del Río, P. Osses, and J. L. García. "REMOTE SENSING-BASED DETECTION AND SPATIAL PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR GEO-ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF TILLANDSIA SPP. IN THE ATACAMA, CHILE." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B2 (June 7, 2016): 251–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xli-b2-251-2016.

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In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called ‘fog oases’ dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of <i>Tillandsia spp.</i> in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of <i>Tillandsia spp.</i> Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.
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Christina, Mathias, Fawziah Limbada, and Anne Atlan. "Climatic niche shift of an invasive shrub (Ulex europaeus): a global scale comparison in native and introduced regions." Journal of Plant Ecology 13, no. 1 (August 16, 2019): 42–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtz041.

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Abstract Aims Invasive species, which recently expanded, may help understand how climatic niche can shift at the time scale of the current global change. Here, we address the climatic niche shift of an invasive shrub (common gorse, Ulex europaeus) at the world and regional scales to assess how it could contribute to increasing invasibility. Methods Based on a 28 187 occurrences database, we used a combination of 9 species distribution models (SDM) to assess regional climatic niche from both the native range (Western Europe) and the introduced range in different parts of the world (North-West America, South America, North Europe, Australia and New Zealand). Important Findings Despite being restricted to annual mean temperature between 4°C and 22°C, as well as annual precipitation higher than 300 mm/year, the range of bioclimatic conditions suitable for gorse was very large. Based on a native versus introduced SDM comparison, we highlighted a niche expansion in North-West America, South America and to a lesser degree in Australia, while a niche displacement was assessed in North Europe. These niche changes induced an increase in potential occupied areas by gorse by 49, 111, 202 and 283% in Australia, North Europe, North-West America and South America, respectively. On the contrary, we found no evidence of niche change in New Zealand, which presents similar climatic condition to the native environment (Western Europe). This study highlights how niche expansion and displacement of gorse might increase invasibility at regional scale. The change in gorse niche toward new climatic conditions may result from adaptive plasticity or genetic evolution and may explain why it has such a high level of invasibility. Taking into account the possibility of a niche shift is crucial to improve invasive plants management and control.
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Tytar, V. M., I. I. Kozinenko, and S. V. Mezhzherin. "Modelling the Bioclimatic Niche and Distribution of the Steppe Mouse, Mus Spicilegus (Rodentia, Muridae), in Ukraine." Vestnik Zoologii 53, no. 6 (December 1, 2019): 471–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/vzoo-2019-0042.

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Abstract The Steppe mouse, Mus spicilegus, is endemic to Europe and found to be expanding its home range in recent years. In Ukraine there are indications a north- and eastwards expansion and/or reestablishment of M. spicilegus. We suggest that climatic conditions may be the primary factors that foster or limit the range expansion of M. spicilegus in Eastern Europe. Our objective was to complement the knowledge about the distribution of the species with an estimation of the potential distribution of the species in Ukraine using known occurrence sites (in Ukraine and neighbouring areas) and environmental variables in an ecological niche modelling algorithm. After accounting for sampling bias and spatial autocorrelation, we retained 73 occurrence records. The algorithm used in this paper, Maxent (Phillips et al., 2006), is a machine learning algorithm and only needs presence data, besides the environmental layers. Using this approach, we have highlighted the importance and significance of a number of bioclimatic variables, particularly those characterizing wintering conditions, under which higher mean temperatures enhance habitat suitability, whereas increased precipitation leads to an opposite effect. The broadly northwards shift of the home range of the species in Ukraine could generally be due to the increasing (since the 1980s) mean temperature of the winter season. We expect this expansion process will continue together with the changing climate and new records of locations of the species may be used for monitoring such change.
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Wolf, N., A. Siegmund, C. del Río, P. Osses, and J. L. García. "REMOTE SENSING-BASED DETECTION AND SPATIAL PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR GEO-ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF TILLANDSIA SPP. IN THE ATACAMA, CHILE." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B2 (June 7, 2016): 251–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-xli-b2-251-2016.

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In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called ‘fog oases’ dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of &lt;i&gt;Tillandsia spp.&lt;/i&gt; in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of &lt;i&gt;Tillandsia spp.&lt;/i&gt; Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.
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Menchetti, Mattia, Maya Guéguen, and Gerard Talavera. "Spatio-temporal ecological niche modelling of multigenerational insect migrations." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286, no. 1910 (September 4, 2019): 20191583. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.1583.

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Modelling ecological niches of migratory animals requires incorporating a temporal dimension, in addition to space. Here, we introduce an approach to model multigenerational migratory insects using time-partitioned environmental variables (by months and years) and time- and behaviour-partitioned records (breeding records to model reproductive habitat). We apply this methodology to modelling the Palearctic-African migratory cycle of the Painted Lady butterfly ( Vanessa cardui ), based on data encompassing 36 years (646 breeding sites from 30 countries). Each breeding record is linked to a particular time (month and year), and the associated values of the bioclimatic variables are used for an ensemble modelling strategy, to finally obtain monthly projections. The results show obligated movements, mostly latitudinal, for the species' successive generations across the overall range, and only scattered locations show high probabilities of reproduction year-round. The southernmost reproductive areas estimated for the Palearctic-African migratory pool reach equatorial latitudes from December to February. We thus propose a potential distribution for the winter ‘missing generations' that would expand the V. cardui migration cycle to encompass about 15 000 km in latitude, from northernmost Europe to equatorial Africa. In summer, Europe represents the major temporary resource for V. cardui , while January and February show the lowest overall suitability values, and they are potentially the most vulnerable period for the species to suffer yearly bottlenecks. In summary, we demonstrate the potential of the proposed niche modelling strategy to investigate migratory movements of insects.
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Ramachandran, Vivek, Mukta Joshi, Mayuresh Ambekar, Samina Amin Charoo, and Uma Ramakrishnan. "The desert hamster Phodopus roborovskii (Satunin, 1903) (Rodentia, Cricetidae) from north-western Tibetan plateau, Ladakh, India: an addition to the mammalian fauna of the Indian subcontinent." Mammalia 84, no. 3 (March 26, 2020): 253–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mammalia-2018-0199.

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AbstractDuring a systematic survey of the small mammals in the relatively unexplored north-western regions of the Tibetan plateau in India, we captured and identified the desert hamster Phodopus roborovskii using molecular phylogenetic methods. We also provide revised distributional estimates for this species using niche modelling (Maxent and 19 bioclimatic variables), taking into account sampling bias. We evaluated suitable habitats for the species, identifying regions in the Trans-Himalayas that may harbour this species. This study improves the knowledge of the desert hamster’s range and is a new record and an addition to the Indian sub-continental mammalian fauna, ~750 km southward extension from its known range.
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Niazyan, Lyudmila G. "PREDICTING THE FUTURE ECOLOGICAL NICHE OF $CULEX$ $PIPIENS$ AND ASSOCIATED BIORISKS IN ARMENIA." Proceedings of the YSU B: Chemical and Biological Sciences 55, no. 2 (255) (August 30, 2021): 181–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.46991/pysu:b/2021.55.2.181.

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West Nile virus disease is an emerging infectious vector borne disease. Of registered invasive species of mosquitoes in Armenia, Culex pipiens is the most implicated one in the potential transmission of West Nile virus (WNV). In previous years (1985–1999), research on circulation of mosquito-borne arboviruses in Armenia was conducted by the research Institute of Epidemiology and WNV, Batai, Sindbis, Tahyna and Gheta were found in mosquitoes. The only mosquito-borne disease historically registered in Armenia was malaria, without autochtonous cases since 2006. However, per retrospective medical chart review study (2016–2019) in the Nork Infection Clinical Hospital, about 30% of febrile patients is diagnosed as “Fever of Unknown Origin”. We hypothesize that these arboviruses are circulating in Armenia and largely mis-diagnosed and/or under reported. Based on the geographical locations of mosquitoes, the MaxEnt model with 19 bioclimatic variables was developed to predict future ecological niche of C. pipiens and potential high-risk areas for West Nile virus disease. It is the first step for the implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time alert of biorisk.
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ALI, Ado, Laouali ABDOU, Maman Maârouhi INOUSSA, Josiane SEGHIERI, and Ali MAHAMANE. "In Niger, the Expected Futur Climate Will Provide Better Conditions than the Current One to Diospyros Mespiliformis Hochst. ex A.DC. Rich." Environment and Natural Resources Research 10, no. 3 (September 30, 2020): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/enrr.v10n3p16.

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The human use of plant resources and land to face increasing population needs in Africa to the regression or even the disappearance of some useful multi-purpose species such as Diospyros mespiliformis Hochst. Ex A. Rich. Increasing climatic variability is an additional threat for these species. The present study aims to identify the areas that are potentially favorable to D. mespiliformis conservation or regeneration in Niger and to analyze the impact of the current climate change. Thus to assess the D. mespiliformis distribution areas, the geographic coordinates of D. mespiliformis, the bioclimatic data, the soil and vegetation cover were collected and used to modeling based on the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The soil cover, annual cumulated precipitations and the average temperature are the most determining variables. This study also shows that the ecological niche of D. mespiliformis is located in the Central and Eastern bioclimates, within which almost 3% of the surface is very favorable under the current climate conditions and may reach 3. 94 % under 2050 ones after. These results indicate that the climate change expected in Niger is expected to be more favorable to the studied species than the current climate conditions. This represents an opportunity for its domestication.
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Luna-Vega, Isolda, Othón Alcántara-Ayala, Raúl Contreras-Medina, and César A. Ríos-Muñoz. "Ecological niche modeling on the effect of climatic change and conservation of Ternstroemia lineata DC. (Ternstroemiaceae) in Mesoamerica." Botany 90, no. 7 (July 2012): 637–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/b2012-019.

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A bioclimatic modeling of the tree Ternstroemia lineata DC. (Ternstroemiaceae) was undertaken. The genus itself is considered as diagnostic or characteristic of the Mexican cloud forest. Ternstroemia lineata has the broadest distribution of all species in this family in Mexico and northern Central America. This species consists of two subspecies, T. lineata subsp. lineata and T. lineata subsp. chalicophila (Loes.) B.M. Barthol. Ecological niche models for both subspecies were generated using the genetic algorithm for rule-set production method. The ecological models for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 were obtained under the effects of global climatic change considering two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a). When climatic change values were introduced, the ecological niche representation for both subspecies contracted in such a way that they became almost lost throughout their entire geographical range. In both cases, predictions for all years in both scenarios contracted more than 90%. This species may not be able to adapt to modifications caused by climatic change to future conditions, so it is at risk of extinction in the immediate future.
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Lee, William G., Andrew J. Tanentzap, and Peter B. Heenan. "Plant radiation history affects community assembly: evidence from the New Zealand alpine." Biology Letters 8, no. 4 (February 8, 2012): 558–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2011.1210.

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The hypothesis that early plant radiations on islands dampen diversification and reduce habitat occupancy of later radiations via niche pre-emption has never, to our knowledge, been tested. We investigated clade-level dynamics in plant radiations in the alpine zone, New Zealand. Our aim was to determine whether radiations from older colonizations influenced diversification and community dominance of species from later colonizations within a common bioclimatic zone over the past ca 10 Myr. We used stem ages derived from the phylogenies of 17 genera represented in alpine plant communities in the Murchison Mountains, Fiordland, and assessed their presence and cover in 262 (5 × 5 m) vegetation plots. Our results show clear age-related community assembly effects, whereby congenerics from older colonizing genera co-occur more frequently and with greater cover per unit area than those from younger colonizing genera. However, we find no evidence of increased species richness with age of colonization in the alpine zone. The data support priority effects via niche pre-emption among plant radiations influencing community assembly.
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Gorel, Anaïs-Pasiphaé, Jérôme Duminil, Jean-Louis Doucet, and Adeline Fayolle. "Ecological niche divergence associated with species and populations differentiation in Erythrophleum (Fabaceae, Caesalpinioideae)." Plant Ecology and Evolution 152, no. 1 (March 25, 2019): 41–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5091/plecevo.2019.1543.

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Background and aims – The isolation of populations inside forest refugia during past climate changes has widely been hypothesized as a major driver of tropical plant diversity. Environmental conditions can also influence patterns of diversity by driving divergent selection leading to local adaptation and, potentially, ecological speciation. Genetic and phylogenetic approaches are frequently used to study the diversification of African tree clades. However, the environmental space occupied by closely related species or intra-specific gene pools is barely quantified, though needed to properly test hypotheses on diversification processes.Methods – Using species distribution models, we determined the bioclimatic constraints on the distribution of closely related species and intra-specific gene pools. Our study model, Erythrophleum (Fabaceae – Caesalpinioideae), is a tropical tree genus widespread across Africa, and vastly investigated for genetics. Here, we combined the available phylogenetic data with information on niche divergence to explore the role of ecology into diversification at the species and gene pool levels.Key results – Ecological speciation through climate has probably played a key role in the evolution of the Erythrophleum species. The differential climatic niche of the species indicated adaptive divergence along rainfall gradients, that have probably been boosted by past climate fluctuations. At the gene pool level, past climate changes during the Pleistocene have shaped genetic diversity, though within Erythrophleum suaveolens, adaptive divergence also occurred.Conclusions – We believe that ecological speciation is a key mechanism of diversification for tropical African tree species, since such climatic niche partition exist among many other genera. Modelling the environmental niche of closely related taxa, and testing for niche differentiation, combined with divergence dates offered new insights on the process of diversification.
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Title, Pascal O., and Jordan B. Bemmels. "ENVIREM: an expanded set of bioclimatic and topographic variables increases flexibility and improves performance of ecological niche modeling." Ecography 41, no. 2 (April 4, 2017): 291–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02880.

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Olivier, Renan da Silva, and Rodrigo Aranda. "Potential geographic distribution niche modeling based on bioclimatic variables of three species ofTemnomastaxRehn and Rehn, 1942 (Orthoptera: Eumastacidae)." Journal of Natural History 51, no. 21-22 (May 25, 2017): 1197–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00222933.2017.1324647.

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Méndez-Encina, Fátima M., Jorge Méndez-González, Rocío Mendieta-Oviedo, José Ó. M. López-Díaz, and Juan A. Nájera-Luna. "Ecological Niches and Suitability Areas of Three Host Pine Species of Bark Beetle Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins." Forests 12, no. 4 (March 24, 2021): 385. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f12040385.

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Bark beetles are a natural part of coniferous forests. Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins is the most widely distributed and most destructive bark beetle in Mexico, colonizing more than 21 pine species. The objectives of this study were to generate ecological niche models for D. mexicanus and three of its most important host species, to evaluate the overlap of climate suitability of the association Dendroctonus–Pinus, and to determine the possible expansion of the bark beetle. We used meticulously cleaned species occurrence records, 15 bioclimatic variables and ‘kuenm’, an R package that uses Maxent as a modeling algorithm. The Dendroctonus–Pinus ecological niches were compared using ordination methods and the kernel density function. We generated 1392 candidate models; not all were statistically significant (α = 0.05). The response type was quadratic; there is a positive correlation between suitability and precipitation, and negative with temperature, the latter determining climatic suitability of the studied species. Indeed, a single variable (Bio 1) contributed 93.9% to the model (Pinus leiophylla Schl. & Cham). The overlap of suitable areas for Dendroctonus–Pinus is 74.95% (P. leiophylla) and on average of 46.66% in ecological niches. It is observed that D. mexicanus begins to expand towards climates not currently occupied by the studied pine species.
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SETYAWAN, AHMAD DWI, JATNA SUPRIATNA, NISYAWATI NISYAWATI, SUTARNO SUTARNO, and ILYAS NURSAMSI. "Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution of the widespread selaginellas (Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana) in Southeast Asia." Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity 19, no. 5 (September 21, 2018): 1960–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d190549.

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Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I. 2018. Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution of the widespread selaginellas (Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 19: 1960-1977. The current global climate is moving towards dangerous and unprecedented conditions that have been seen as a potentially devastating threat to the environment and all living things. Selaginella is a fern-allies that needs water as a medium for fertilization, hence its distribution is presumed to be affected by climate change. In Southeast Asia (SEA), there are two widely distributed selaginellas, namely Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana. S. ciliaris is a small herb (up to 4 cm), annual, abundant during the rainy season, and found in the middle-high plains, whereas S. plana is a stout large herb (up to 80 cm), perennial, and mainly found in the lowlands. The purpose of this study was to determine the potential niche distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana under current climatic conditions, and to predict its future distribution under the impacts of climate change. We used Maxent software along with bioclimatic, edaphic, and UV radiation variables to model the potential niche distribution of those two selaginellas under current and future predictions climate conditions. We generated future predictions under four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) over three times intervals (2030, 2050, 2080). The results showed that future climatic conditions in the SEA had been predicted to significantly disrupt the distribution of suitable habitat of S. ciliaris and S. plana, and alter their geographic distribution patterns. Although some areas were predicted to become suitable habitat in the early period of future climate change, the overall projections show adverse effects of future climate conditions on the suitable habitat distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana, as estimated losses of suitable habitat will be higher than the gains.
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Kozak, Kenneth H., David W. Weisrock, and Allan Larson. "Rapid lineage accumulation in a non-adaptive radiation: phylogenetic analysis of diversification rates in eastern North American woodland salamanders (Plethodontidae: Plethodon )." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273, no. 1586 (December 6, 2005): 539–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2005.3326.

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Adaptive radiations have served as model systems for quantifying the build-up of species richness. Few studies have quantified the tempo of diversification in species-rich clades that contain negligible adaptive disparity, making the macroevolutionary consequences of different modes of evolutionary radiation difficult to assess. We use mitochondrial-DNA sequence data and recently developed phylogenetic methodologies to explore the tempo of diversification of eastern North American Plethodon , a species-rich clade of woodland salamanders exhibiting only limited phenotypic disparity. Lineage-through-time analysis reveals a high rate of lineage accumulation, 0.8 species per million years, occurring 11–8 million years ago in the P. glutinosus species group, followed by decreasing rates. This high rate of lineage accumulation is exceptional, comparable to the most rapid of adaptive radiations. In contrast to classic models of adaptive radiation where ecological niche divergence is linked to the origin of species, we propose that phylogenetic niche conservatism contributes to the rapid accumulation of P. glutinosus -group lineages by promoting vicariant isolation and multiplication of species across a spatially and temporally fluctuating environment. These closely related and ecologically similar lineages persist through long-periods of evolutionary time and form strong barriers to the geographic spread of their neighbours, producing a subsequent decline in lineage accumulation. Rapid diversification among lineages exhibiting long-term maintenance of their bioclimatic niche requirements is an under-appreciated phenomenon driving the build-up of species richness.
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DeSantis, Larisa R. G., Zhijie Jack Tseng, Jinyi Liu, Aaron Hurst, Blaine W. Schubert, and Qigao Jiangzuo. "Assessing niche conservatism using a multiproxy approach: dietary ecology of extinct and extant spotted hyenas." Paleobiology 43, no. 2 (February 2, 2017): 286–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2016.45.

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AbstractA central premise of bioclimatic envelope modeling is the assumption of niche conservatism. Whereas such assumptions are testable in modern populations, it is unclear whether niche conservatism holds over deeper time spans and over very large geographic ranges. Hyaenids occupied a diversity of ecological niches over time and space, and until the end-Pleistocene they occurred in Europe and most of Asia, with Asian populations of Crocuta suggested as being genetically distinct from their closest living relatives. Further, little is known regarding whether and how the dietary ecology of extinct populations of Crocuta differed from those of their extant African counterparts. Here, we use a multiproxy approach to assess an assumption of conserved dietary ecology in late Pleistocene extant spotted hyenas via finite element analysis, dental microwear texture analysis, and a novel dental macrowear method (i.e., whether teeth are minimally, moderately, or extremely worn, as defined by degree of dentin exposure) proposed here. Results from finite element simulations of the masticatory apparatus of Chinese and African Crocuta demonstrate lower skull stiffness and higher stress in the orbital region of the former when biting with carnassial teeth, suggesting that Chinese Crocuta could not process prey with the same degree of efficiency as extant Crocuta crocuta. Dental microwear texture data further support this interpretation, as Chinese Crocuta have intermediate and indistinguishable complexity values (indicative of hard-object feeding) between the extant African lion (Panthera leo) and extant hyenas (C. crocuta, Hyaena hyaena, and Parahyaena brunnea), being most similar to the omnivorous P. brunnea. The use of dental macrowear to infer dietary behavior may also be possible in extinct taxa, as evinced by dietary correlations between extant African feliforms and dental macrowear assignments. Collectively, this multiproxy analysis suggests that Chinese Crocuta may have exhibited dietary behavior distinct from that of living C. crocuta, and assumptions of niche conservatism may mask significant dietary variation in species broadly distributed in time and space.
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Cooper, David M., Andrew J. Dugmore, Andrew C. Kitchener, Marc J. Metzger, and Antonio Trabucco. "A kingdom in decline: Holocene range contraction of the lion (Panthera leo) modelled with global environmental stratification." PeerJ 9 (February 15, 2021): e10504. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10504.

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Aim We use ecological niche models and environmental stratification of palaeoclimate to reconstruct the changing range of the lion (Panthera leo) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Location The modern (early 21st century) range of the lion extends from southern Africa to the western Indian Subcontinent, yet through the 20th century this range has been drastically reduced in extent and become increasingly fragmented as a result of human impacts. Methods We use Global Environmental Stratification with MaxEnt ecological niche models to map environmental suitability of the lion under current and palaeoclimatic scenarios. By examining modelled lion range in terms of categorical environmental strata, we characterise suitable bioclimatic conditions for the lion in a descriptive manner. Results We find that lion habitat suitability has reduced throughout the Holocene, controlled by pluvial/interpluvial cycles. The aridification of the Sahara 6ka dramatically reduced lion range throughout North Africa. The association of Saharan aridification with the development of pastoralism and the growth of sedentary communities, who practised animal husbandry, would have placed additional and lasting anthropogenic pressures on the lion. Main Conclusions This research highlights the need to integrate the full effects of the fluctuating vegetation and desiccation of the Sahara into palaeoclimatic models, and provides a starting point for further continental-scale analyses of shifting faunal ranges through North Africa and the Near East during the Holocene. This scale of ecological niche modelling does not explain the current pattern of genetic variation in the lion, and we conclude that narrow but substantial physical barriers, such as rivers, have likely played a major role in population vicariance throughout the Late Pleistocene.
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Torres, María Elena, Hugo Luis Rojas, Luis Carlos Alatorre, Luis Carlos Bravo, Mario Iván Uc, Manuel Octavio González, Lara Cecilia Wiebe, and Alfredo Granados. "Biogeographical factors determining Triatoma recurva distribution in Chihuahua, México, 2014." Biomédica 40, no. 3 (September 24, 2020): 516–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.7705/biomedica.5076.

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Introduction: Triatoma recurva is a Trypanosoma cruzi vector whose distribution and biological development are determined by factors that may influence the transmission of trypanosomiasis to humans.Objective: To identify the potential spatial distribution of Triatoma recurve, as well as social factors determining its presence.Materials and methods: We used the MaxEnt software to construct ecological niche models while bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) were derived from the monthly values of temperature and precipitation to generate biologically significant variables. The resulting cartography was interpreted as suitable areas for T. recurva presence.Results: Our results showed that the precipitation during the driest month (Bio 14), the maximum temperature during the warmest month (Bio 5), and the altitude (Alt) and mean temperature during the driest quarter (Bio 9) determined T. recurva distribution area at a higher percentage evidencing its strong relationship with domestic and surrounding structures.Conclusions. This methodology can be used in other geographical contexts to locate potential sampling sites where these triatomines occur.
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Shogren, Christopher, and Timothy Paine. "Predicting the Potential Invasive Range of Klambothrips myopori (Thysanopetra: Phlaeothripidae)." Journal of Economic Entomology 113, no. 3 (February 17, 2020): 1202–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jee/toaa005.

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Abstract Temperature-driven development of myoporum thrips, Klambothrips myopori (Thysanopetra: Phlaeothripidae), was examined at seven constant temperatures (15, 17, 20, 25, 30, 34, and 35.5°C) on Myoporum laetum Forst (Lamiales: Scrophulariaceae). Thrips successfully completed development to adult stage between 15 and 35.5°C. One linear and three nonlinear models were fitted to describe developmental rates of K. myopori as a function of temperature, and for estimating thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds (Tmin, Topt, and Tmax). The Briere-1 model performed best in describing the developmental rate of cumulative life stages. Two ecological niche models, CLIMEX and Maxent, were used to predict the geographic distribution of K. myopori in its native range and globally. Overall predictions of environmental suitability differed greatly across models. The CLIMEX model accurately predicted known invasive and native localities, while the Maxent model failed to predict the native localities and parts of the invasive range. Based on the CLIMEX model, K. myopori has the potential to establish in many regions of the globe.
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BINDER, Mark D., and Christopher J. ELLIS. "Conservation of the rare British lichen Vulpicida pinastri: changing climate, habitat loss and strategies for mitigation." Lichenologist 40, no. 1 (January 2008): 63–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0024282908007275.

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Abstract:Autecological information targeted towards rare and threatened lichen species is severely lacking. This study adopts the rare British lichen Vulpicida pinastri as a case study species and examines its ecological response to emerging threats: climate change and the recurrent loss of its primary habitat (juniper scrub). We used predictive niche modelling to examine the response of V. pinastri to a range of present-day climatic variables. A successful model was projected for a period during the 2050s based on IPCC climate change scenarios (UKCIP02 data), and threat was estimated as the proportional change in bioclimatic space. To estimate the potential range now and during the 2050s, projected bioclimatic space was masked by a habitat map equivalent to (i) the present-day distribution of juniper and (ii) theoretical juniper distribution based on existing rates of decline. Our results point to potential range loss of V. pinastri with climate warming, exacerbated by the recurrent decline in juniper habitat. This predictive modelling approach was complemented by an assessment of local stand-scale effects. At four sites in north-east Scotland we examined the occurrence and abundance of V. pinastri thalli, in response to juniper spatial distribution, and the life-stage and structure of individual shrubs. Vulpicida pinastri appeared to be dispersal limited at small-scales, and was significantly more abundant on old and degenerate juniper shrubs. Our results evidence a close relationship between management for habitat quality and effective lichen conservation. Effective conservation of V. pinastri must ensure cohorts of older and degenerate juniper shrubs are maintained at sites where the species is expected to be most resistant to long-term climate warming, i.e. in the uplands of north-east Scotland.
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45

Román, Jhony Fernando Cruz, Ricardo Enrique Hernández-Lambraño, David Rodríguez de la Cruz, and José Ángel Sánchez Agudo. "Analysis of the Adaptative Strategy of Cirsium vulgare (Savi) Ten. in the Colonization of New Territories." Sustainability 13, no. 4 (February 23, 2021): 2384. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13042384.

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The current situation of global environmental degradation as a result of anthropogenic activities makes it necessary to open new research lines focused on the causes and effects of the main alterations caused in the ecosystems. One of the most relevant is how the niche dynamics of invasive species change between different geographical areas, since its understanding is key to the early detection and control of future invasions. In this regard, we analyzed the distribution pattern of Cirsium vulgare (Savi) Ten., a plant of the Asteraceae family originally from the Eurasian region that currently invades wide areas of the world. We estimated its niche shifts between continents using a combination of principal components analysis (PCA) and Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) on an extensive set of data on global presences of its native and invaded ranges from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A set of bioclimatic variables and the Human Footprint (HFP) with a resolution of 10 km were selected for this purpose. Our results showed that the species has a marked global trend to expand toward warmer climates with less seasonality, although in some regions its invasiveness appears to be less than in others. The models had a good statistical performance and high coherence in relation to the known distribution of the species and allowed us to establish the relative weight of the contribution of each variable used, with the annual temperature and seasonality being the determining factors in the establishment of the species. Likewise, the use of non-climatic variable HFP has provided relevant information to explain the colonizing behavior of the species. The combination of this methodology with an adequate selection of predictor variables represents a very useful tool when focusing efforts and resources for the management of invasive species.
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Santos, Alisson Borges Miranda, Vinicius Andrade Maia, Cléber Rodrigo de Souza, Nathalle Cristine Alencar Fagundes, Fernanda Moreira Gianasi, Aurélio de Jesus Rodrigues Pais, Natália de Aguiar-Campos, et al. "Disentangling spatial, environmental and historical effects on tropical forest tree species turnover." Journal of Plant Ecology 14, no. 4 (March 26, 2021): 717–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtab027.

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Abstract Aims We aimed at disentangling the effects of spatial distance, current and past environmental dissimilarity, and their combinations on tree community taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover by addressing the following questions: (i) Is tree community taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover related to the indirect effects of spatial distance via environmental dissimilarity? (ii) Does tree community taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover respond to paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene)? Methods The study was carried out in 14 Atlantic rainforest sites in Brazil (20.4 ha sampled) containing 615 tree species from 83 plant families. We obtained plot-level geographic coordinates and soil variables and site-level bioclimatic variables in the current, Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum. We used structural equation models with a distance-based approach to (i) test the direct effects of spatial distance and environmental dissimilarity and (ii) test the indirect effects of spatial distance via environmental dissimilarity on taxonomic (Bray–Curtis distance) and phylogenetic turnover (Comdist and Comdistnt distances). Important Findings Our results suggest a weak indirect effect of spatial distance via environmental dissimilarity on taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover. Tree community turnover was driven by the direct effects of neutral, niche-based and historical processes. Thus, we inferred that the paleoclimate (historical processes) promoted the selection of the clades that gave rise to the current flora, while spatial distances (neutral processes) limited the dispersal range of species from the regional pool and environmental conditions (niche-based processes) locally selected the taxa that are able to persist.
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47

Valencia-Rodríguez, Daniel, Luz Jiménez-Segura, Carlos A. Rogéliz, and Juan L. Parra. "Ecological niche modeling as an effective tool to predict the distribution of freshwater organisms: The case of the Sabaleta Brycon henni (Eigenmann, 1913)." PLOS ONE 16, no. 3 (March 3, 2021): e0247876. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247876.

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Ecological niche models (ENMs) aim to recreate the relationships between species and the environments where they occur and allow us to identify unexplored areas in geography where these species might be present. These models have been successfully used in terrestrial organisms but their application in aquatic organisms is still scarce. Recent advances in the availability of species occurrences and environmental information particular to aquatic systems allow the evaluation of these models. This study aims to characterize the niche of the Sabaleta Brycon henni Eigenmann 1913, an endemic fish of the Colombian Andes, using ENMs to predict its geographical distribution across the Magdalena Basin. For this purpose, we used a set of environmental variables specific to freshwater systems in addition to the customary bioclimatic variables, and species’ occurrence data to model its potential distribution using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). We evaluate the relative importance between these two sets of variables, the model’s performance, and its geographic overlap with the IUCN map. Both on-site (annual precipitation, minimum temperature of coldest month) and upstream variables (open waters, average minimum temperature of the coldest month and average precipitation seasonality) were included in the models with the highest predictive accuracy. With an area under the curve of 90%, 99% of the species occurrences and 68% of absences correctly predicted, our results support the good performance of ENMs to predict the potential distribution of the Sabaleta and the utility of this tool in conservation and decision-making at the national level.
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48

Balkenhol, Niko, Michael K. Schwartz, Robert M. Inman, Jeffrey P. Copeland, John S. Squires, Neil J. Anderson, and Lisette P. Waits. "Landscape genetics of wolverines (Gulo gulo): scale-dependent effects of bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables." Journal of Mammalogy 101, no. 3 (April 28, 2020): 790–803. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyaa037.

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Abstract Climate change can have particularly severe consequences for high-elevation species that are well-adapted to long-lasting snow conditions within their habitats. One such species is the wolverine, Gulo gulo, with several studies showing a strong, year-round association of the species with the area defined by persistent spring snow cover. This bioclimatic niche also predicts successful dispersal paths for wolverines in the contiguous United States, where the species shows low levels of genetic exchange and low effective population size. Here, we assess the influence of additional climatic, vegetative, topographic, and anthropogenic, variables on wolverine genetic structure in this region using a multivariate, multiscale, landscape genetic approach. This approach allows us to detect landscape-genetic relationships both due to typical, small-scale genetic exchange within habitat, as well as exceptional, long-distance dispersal among habitats. Results suggest that a combination of snow depth, terrain ruggedness, and housing density, best predict gene flow in wolverines, and that the relative importance of variables is scale-dependent. Environmental variables (i.e., isolation-by-resistance, IBR) were responsible for 79% of the explained variation at small scales (i.e., up to ~230 km), and 65% at broad scales (i.e., beyond ~420 km). In contrast, a null model based on only space (i.e., isolation-by-distance, IBD) accounted only for 17% and 11% of the variation at small and broad scales, respectively. Snow depth was the most important variable for predicting genetic structures overall, and at small scales, where it contributed 43% to the variance explained. At broad spatial scales, housing density and terrain ruggedness were most important with contributions to explained variation of 55% and 25%, respectively. While the small-scale analysis most likely captures gene flow within typical wolverine habitat complexes, the broad-scale analysis reflects long-distance dispersal across areas not typically inhabited by wolverines. These findings help to refine our understanding of the processes shaping wolverine genetic structure, which is important for maintaining and improving functional connectivity among remaining wolverine populations.
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Cordeiro, Pedro Fialho, Fernando Figueiredo Goulart, Diego Rodrigues Macedo, Mônica De Cássia Souza Campos, and Samuel Rodrigues Castro. "Modeling of the potential distribution of Eichhornia crassipes on a global scale: risks and threats to water ecosystems." Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science 15, no. 2 (April 14, 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.2421.

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The water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) is listed among the 100 worst invasive plants and was ranked as the 11th worst invasive species in Europe, being a threat to aquatic biodiversity and water-provision. Predicting species distribution is the first step to understanding niche suitability, forecasting the invasion impact and building resilience against this species. In this study, we used a potential distribution model to assess the global risk of water hyacinth invasion by overlapping maps of highly suitable areas for water hyacinth occurrence and areas of biological importance and water scarcity. The MaxEnt - Maximum Entropy algorithm was used in the construction of the model and included five global bioclimatic layers and one of urbanized areas. Among the variables used, occurrence is mainly explained by urban areas, highlighting the importance of cities as a source or dispersion mechanism of the water hyacinth. Global biodiversity hotspots are predominantly situated in high suitability regions for the species. Ramsar sites and global protected areas are at a lower risk level compared to hotspots; however, future climate change and urban growth scenarios could put these areas at higher risk for invasion. Threats posed by the water hyacinth are possibly more acute in regions suffering from current or chronic drought. The results suggest that niche models that do not consider anthropic variables may be underestimating potential distribution of invasive species. Furthermore, the ecological plasticity of the water hyacinth and its close association with cities increase the concern about the impact of this species on the environment and on water security.
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BARBOSA, FABIANA G., VALÉRIO D. PILLAR, ANTHONY R. PALMER, and ADRIANO S. MELO. "Predicting the current distribution and potential spread of the exotic grassEragrostis planaNees in South America and identifying a bioclimatic niche shift during invasion." Austral Ecology 38, no. 3 (May 6, 2012): 260–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2012.02399.x.

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