Academic literature on the topic 'Blue nile river (ethiopia and sudan)'

The Nile flows for 6,700 kilometres through ten countries in north-eastern Africa – Rwanda, Burundi, Zaïre/Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, the Sudan, and Egypt – before reaching the Mediterranean, and is the longest international river system in the world – see Map 1. Its two main tributaries converge at Khartoum: the White Nile, which originates from Burundi and flows through the Equatorial Lakes, provides a small but steady flow that is fed by the eternal snows of the Ruwenzori (the ‘rain giver’) mountains, while the Blue Nile, which suffers from high seasonal fluctuations, descends from the lofty Ethiopian ‘water tower’ highlands. They provide 86 per cent of the waters of the Nile – Blue Nile 59 per cent, Baro-Akobo (Sobat) 14 per cent, Tekesse (Atbara) 13 per cent – while the contribution from the Equatorial Lakes region is only 14 per cent.

Abstract The objective of this research is assessing water resource availability in the Blue Nile River for different development scenarios using Mike Hydro modeling. The long term Blue Nile total irrigation water demand will be more than 46.67 × 109m3, which is nearly similar to the naturalized flow (around 48 × 109m3). In the phase II irrigation, water shortfalls increase to 0.38 × 109m3/year. There is up to 2.172 × 109m3/year irrigation water deficit at the full development level in Ethiopia. Due to flow regulation, there are no shortfalls in irrigation in Sudan in either the medium or the long-term. Dams located in Ethiopia give more advantage to the Sudanese schemes than that of Ethiopian regarding irrigation development.

The aim of this paper is to present the River Nile conflict from the aspects of critical infrastructure protection. It is often stated that the next world war will be fought over water, and there are few regions as tense as the Nile Valley. Egypt and Ethiopia have a severe disagreement, Sudan is in the middle of it, and a big geopolitical shift is being played along the world’s longest river. The Grand Renaissance Dam has been un-der construction on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. This dam will be the greatest hydro-electric power plant in Africa. This critical infrastructure has both political and military importance.

The construction of large-scale water reservoir facilities in transboundary river basins always arouses intense concern and controversy. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under construction in Ethiopia is perceived to affect water security in Egypt and Sudan. Therefore, this study investigated the water and sediment balance of the Blue Nile River (BNR) basin and identified the spatio-temporal variation in sediment and water yields along with the construction of GERD using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) sediment and water yield models. The BNR basin experienced increasing water and sediment yields between 1992 and 2020 and has shown a growth trend since 2020. The lion’s share of water and sediment yields come from upstream of the GERD. Taken together, these results imply that the construction of the GERD will serve as a water storage and silt trap for Sudan and Egypt.

Abstract. The upper Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia is a largely untapped resource despite its huge potential for hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Controversies exist as to whether the numerous infrastructural development projects that are on the drawing board in Ethiopia will generate positive or negative externalities downstream in Sudan and Egypt. This study attempts at 1) examining the (re-)operation of infrastructures, in particular the proposed reservoirs in Ethiopia and the High Aswan Dam and 2) assessing the economic benefits and costs associated with the storage infrastructures in Ethiopia and their spatial and temporal distribution. To achieve this, a basin-wide integrated hydro-economic model has been developed. The model integrates essential hydrologic, economic and institutional components of the river basin in order to explore both the hydrologic and economic consequences of various policy options and planned infrastructural projects. Unlike most of the deterministic economic-hydrologic models reported in the literature, a stochastic programming formulation has been adopted in order to: i) understand the effect of the hydrologic uncertainty on management decisions, ii) determine allocation policies that naturally hedge against the hydrological risk, and iii) assess the relevant risk indicators. The study reveals that the development of four mega dams in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin would change the drawdown refill cycle of the High Aswan Dam. Should the operation of the reservoirs be coordinated, they would enable an average annual saving of at least 2.5 billion m3 through reduced evaporation losses from the Lake Nasser. Moreover, the new reservoirs (Karadobi, Beko-Abo, Mandaya and Border) in Ethiopia would have significant positive impacts on hydropower generation and irrigation in Ethiopia and Sudan: at the basin scale, the annual energy generation is boosted by 38.5 TWh amongst which 14.2 TWh due to storage. Moreover, the regulation capacity of the above mentioned reservoirs would enable an increase of the Sudanese irrigated area by 5.5%.

Abstract. The upper Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia is a largely untapped resource despite its huge potential for hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Controversies exist as to whether the numerous infrastructural development projects that are on the drawing board in Ethiopia will generate positive or negative externalities downstream in Sudan and Egypt. This study attempts at (1) examining the (re-)operation of infrastructures, in particular the proposed reservoirs in Ethiopia and the High Aswan Dam and (2) assessing the economic benefits and costs associated with the storage infrastructures in Ethiopia and their spatial and temporal distribution. To achieve this, a basin-wide integrated hydro-economic model has been developed. The model integrates essential hydrologic, economic and institutional components of the river basin in order to explore both the hydrologic and economic consequences of various policy options and planned infrastructural projects. Unlike most of the deterministic economic-hydrologic models reported in the literature, a stochastic programming formulation has been adopted in order to: (i) understand the effect of the hydrologic uncertainty on management decisions, (ii) determine allocation policies that naturally hedge against the hydrological risk, and (iii) assess the relevant risk indicators. The study reveals that the development of four mega dams in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin would change the drawdown refill cycle of the High Aswan Dam. Should the operation of the reservoirs be coordinated, they would enable an average annual saving of at least 2.5 billion m3 through reduced evaporation losses from the Lake Nasser. Moreover, the new reservoirs (Karadobi, Beko-Abo, Mandaya and Border) in Ethiopia would have significant positive impacts on hydropower generation and irrigation in Ethiopia and Sudan: at the basin scale, the annual energy generation is boosted by 38.5 TWh amongst which 14.2 TWh due to storage. Moreover, the regulation capacity of the above mentioned reservoirs would enable an increase of the Sudanese irrigated area by 5.5%.

Africa's largest hydropower facility is currently under construction on the main stem of the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is poised to facilitate regional development with a 63 billion cubic meter reservoir and 6,000 MW of power generating capacity. To date, however, no reservoir filling rate policy has been established. This policy will have clear implications on the GERD's ability to generate hydropower in the near-term and coincidentally impact people and livelihoods in Sudan and Egypt through reduced streamflow availability. Implications of climate variability and emerging climate change within Ethiopia cast further uncertainty on potential filling policies and system operations. To address this challenge, numerous filling policies are evaluated through a climate-sensitivity approach to estimate impacts on reservoir filling time, hydropower production, and downstream flows. This provides viable and timely points of comparison for regional water managers and politicians negotiating system operations in the midst of ongoing project construction.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020, indicating a contrasting trend in August and September 2020 for the upstream/downstream water bodies: upstream of the dam rises steeply, while downstream decreases. Our time-series analysis also shows the average monthly precipitation (derived using IMERG) in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia has received an abnormally high amount of rainfall as well as a high amount of runoff (analyzed using GLDAS output). Simultaneously, the study also demonstrates the drying trend downstream at Lake Nasser in Southern Egypt before December 2020. From our results, we estimate that the volume of water at GERD has already increased by 3.584 billion cubic meters, which accounts for about 5.3% of its planned capacity (67.37 billion cubic meters) from 9 July–30 November 2020. Finally, we observed an increasing trend in GRACE anomalies for GERD, whereas, for the Lake Nasser, we observed a decreasing trend. In addition, our study discusses potential interactions between GERD and the rainfall and resulting flood in Sudan. Our study suggests that attention should be drawn to the connection between the GERD filling and potential drought in the downstream countries during the upcoming dry spells in the Blue Nile River Basin. This study provides an open-source technique using Google Earth Engine (GEE) to monitor the changes in water level during the filling of the GERD reservoir. GEE proves to be a powerful as well as an efficient way of analyzing computationally intensive SAR images.

Abstract. Soil erosion/sedimentation is an immense problem that has threatened water resources development in the Nile river basin, particularly in the Eastern Nile (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt). An insight into soil erosion/sedimentation mechanisms and mitigation methods plays an imperative role for the sustainable water resources development in the region. This paper presents daily sediment yield simulations in the Upper Blue Nile under different Best Management Practice (BMP) scenarios. Scenarios applied in this paper are (i) maintaining existing conditions, (ii) introducing filter strips, (iii) applying stone bunds (parallel terraces), and (iv) reforestation. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model soil erosion, identify soil erosion prone areas and assess the impact of BMPs on sediment reduction. For the existing conditions scenario, the model results showed a satisfactory agreement between daily observed and simulated sediment concentrations as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.83. The simulation results showed that applying filter strips, stone bunds and reforestation scenarios reduced the current sediment yields both at the subbasins and the basin outlets. However, a precise interpretation of the quantitative results may not be appropriate because some physical processes are not well represented in the SWAT model.

AbstractIn this study we model the preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) of downstream farmers in one of the largest irrigation schemes worldwide in Sudan for improved irrigation water supply through transboundary collaboration with farmers upstream in Ethiopia. In a choice experiment, Sudanese farmers are asked to pay an increase in existing irrigation fees to secure future irrigation water availability by either enhancing the removal of sediments in their local irrigation channels or compensating farmers in the Ethiopian highlands for taking soil conservation measures to prevent land degradation and soil erosion. Although Sudanese farmers downstream do not feel very connected to farmers upstream in Ethiopia, we find a high degree of trust in international cooperation and a positive WTP for improved irrigation water supply and water use efficiency through transboundary collaboration.

Summary Sediment accumulation in a reservoir is a serious problem that threatens sustainability of the reservoir and has severe consequence on reservoir productivity during its operation time. In order to predict the reservoir sediment deposition pattern, evaluate its consequences on the reservoir yield and identify appropriate reservoir sediment management strategy, accurate quantification of long term average sediment yield is needed. The accuracy of sediment yield estimate depends on availability of good quality suspended and bed load data for period long enough to account for temporal variability, which however is very limited in the Blue Nile Basin. Thus there should be a means to estimate the sediment yield based on the very limited data. In this study sediment rating curve developed based on available data was used to generate longer sediment concentration data from the discharge history in order to quantify sediment yield at different locations (Kessie, Burie and Tato) in the basin. Sediment yield estimated based on rating curve was compared with sediment yield estimated based on data obtained from secondary sources (bathymetric survey data of Roserires reservoir and average sediment concentration at El-Deim) and delivery ratio. Comparisons of various scenarios were made to finally estimate total sediment load of 245 million t/year at GERD. Deposition pattern of sediment entering the GERD reservoir was predicted based on Empirical Area Reduction method. The sediment deposit depth in the reservoir increases gradually and fills up the storage below the minimum water level which defines the life of the reservoir. According to the Empirical Area Reduction method, the GERD reservoir will have life of 116 years for the estimated annual sediment load of 245 million tonnes, trap efficiency of 100% and average deposit density 1.12 t/m3. The reservoir storage capacity will be lost at an average rate of 0.3 % per year. Consequences of storage capacity loss on production capacity were evaluated where the average annual energy loss due to active storage loss amounts 27 GWh. The estimated present value of economic loss indicates that the total economic values forgone due to the live storage loss was found to vary between 0.26% and 0.06% of the original dam cost, 4.33 billion USD when the discount rate varied between 5% and 13% respectively. Various reservoir sediment management strategies were evaluated with the catchment area, environmental and social considerations, reservoir capacity to inflow ratio and total sediment load as governing parameters. According to the preliminary assessment and further evaluation of management strategies using RESCON model dredging was found appropriate for the GERD reservoir. Based on the RESCON model estimates, 20 dredges capable of removing 11 million m3 per year each have to be installed in order to keep the reservoir sustainable.

Une approche utilisant plusieurs méthodes convergentes a été mise en oeuvre pour étudier le cadre hydrogéologique du système aquifère volcanique fracturé et complexe du bassin supérieur du fleuve Awash situé sur le bord du Rift éthiopien. L'écoulement des eaux souterraines et les mécanismes de recharge des différents aquifères ont été étudiés à l'aide de méthodes conventionnelles de terrain, de l'hydrochimie, de l'hydrologie isotopique et de la modélisation numérique des flux souterrains. Des relations lithohydrostratigraphiques ont été établies à partir des logs lithologiques de forages exploratoires profonds. Les résultats montrent un modèle d'écoulement et des caractéristiques hydrauliques des différents aquifères volcaniques très complexes. La corrélation litho-hydrostratigraphique indique que l'aquifère basaltique inférieur, constitué de scories poreuses et perméables, est continu tout le long depuis le Nil Bleu jusqu'à la zone étudiée. L'analyse de la variation temporelle et spatiale des échantillons d’eau provenant d'endroits différents a révélé des interactions nettes entre l'eau souterraine et l'eau superficielle. De nouvelles évidences des transferts d'eau inter-bassins sont apparues. Deux aquifères basaltiques régionaux (l'aquifère supérieur et l'aquifère inférieur) ont été identifiés, montrant des signatures hydrochimiques et isotopiques bien distinctes. Dans la partie sud de la zone étudiée, l'aquifère supérieur et l'aquifère inférieur forment un système aquifère régional non confiné. Dans les parties nord et centrale du bassin au contraire, il apparaît que les deux systèmes sont séparés par un aquiclude régional, donnant lieu par endroits à des puits artésiens. Les eaux souterrainex provenant des puits d'exploration profonds (plus de 250 m) pénétrant l'aquifère basaltique inférieur et des puits situés au sud se sont révélées modérément mineralisées (TDS 400-650 mg/l), avec une composition isotopique stable, relativement moins enrichie et avec presque pas de tritium. Par contre, l'aquifère supérieur superficiel a une concentration ionique moins importante, davantage enrichie isotopiquement. Les résultats des différentes méthodes montrent clairement qu'il existe un transfert d'eau souterraine du nord du bassin adjacent du Nil Bleu vers le bassin supérieur du fleuve Awash. Les résultats convergent également pour attester de l'origine commune de la recharge et de la continuité hydraulique de l'aquifère basaltique inférieur exploité par des forages. Ceci peut avoir des implications pratiques capitales car l'existence d'importantes ressources d'eau souterraine en profondeur peut résoudre les problèmes d'approvisionnement de nombreuses villes, y compris la capitale, Addis Ababa. Ces résultats pourront aussi contribuer à mettre à jour d'autres aquifères régionaux le long des limites du rift dans des zones ayant une structure hydrogéologique similaire à celle du bassin supérieur du fleuve Awash
Integrated approach has been used to investigate the hydrogeological framework of a complex fractured volcanic aquifer system in the Upper Awash river basin located at the western shoulder of the Ethiopian rift. The groundwater flow system and mechanism of recharge of different aquifers have been studied using conventional hydrogeological field investigations, hydrochemistry, isotope hydrology and numerical groundwater flow modeling techniques. Litho-hydrostratigraphic relationships were constructed from lithologic logs obtained from exploratory drilling of deep boreholes. The result indicates quite complex flow pattern and hydraulic characteristics of the different volcanic aquifers. The litho-hydrostratigraphic correlation indicates that the permeable and porous scoraceous lower basaltic aquifer is extended laterally all the way from the Blue Nile Plateau to the study area. . The analysis of the temporal and spatial variation of water samples from different places revealed clear undwater-surface water interactions. New evidences have also emerged on the inter-basin groundwater transfer. Two distinct regional basaltic aquifers (Upper and lower) are identified showing distinct hydrochemical and isotopic signatures. In the southern part of the study area the upper and lower aquifers form one unconfined regional aquifer system. In the northern and central part of the basin, it appears that the two systems are separated by regional aquiclude forming confined aquifers, in places with artesian wells. The groundwater from the deep exploratory wells (>250m) tapping the lower basaltic aquifer and wells located in the south were found to be moderately mineralized (TDS: 400-600 mg/l), with relatively depleted stable isotope composition and with almost zero tritium. In contrast, the upper shallow aquifer has lesser ionic concentration, more isotopically enriched. Evidences from the different methods clearly indicate inter-basin groundwater transfer from the Blue Nile basin to the Upper Awash basin. The evidences also converge to testify common origin of recharge, presence of hydraulic connectivity for systems tapping the lower basaltic aquifer. This has enormous practical implication in finding large groundwater reserve at a greater depth that can solve the current water supply problems of the community including the capital Addis Ababa. It will also have important role in finding more regional aquifers along the plateau-rift margins in many areas having similar hydrogeological setup as the study area

Summary Fresh water availability and distribution have been declining over time due to population increase, climate change and variability, emerging new demands due to economic growth, and changing consumption patterns. Spatial and temporal changes in environmental changes, such as climate and land use/cover (LULC) dynamics have an enormous impact on water availability. Food and energy security, urbanization and industrial growth, as well as climate change (CC) will pose critical challenges on water resources. Climate variability and change may affect both the supply and demand sides of the balance, and thus add to the challenges. Land-cover changes are vastly prominent in the developing countries that are characterized by agriculture-based economies and rapidly increasing human population. The consequent changes in water availability and increase in per capita water demand will adversely affect the food, water and energy security of those countries. Therefore, evaluating the response of the catchment to environmental changes is crucial in the critical part of the basin for sustainable water resource management and development. In particular, assessing the contribution of individual LULC classes to changes in water balance components is vital for effective water and land resource management, and for mitigation of climate change impacts. The dynamic water balance of a catchment is analyzed by hydrological models that consider spatio-temporal catchment characteristics. As a result, hydrological models have become indispensable tools for the study of hydrological processes and the impacts of environmental stressors on the hydrologic system. Physically-based distributed hydrological models are able to explicitly account for the spatial variability of hydrological process, catchment characteristics such as climatic parameters, and land use/cover changes. For improved illustration of physical processes in space and time, the distributed hydrological models need serially complete and homogenized rainfall and temperature data. However, observed rainfall and temperature data are neither serially complete nor homogeneous, particularly in developing countries. Using inhomogeneous climatological data inputs to hydrological models affects the output magnitude of climate and land use/cover change impacts and, hence, climate change adaptation. The Nile River Basin, one of the transboundary river flows through 11 riparian states, serves the livelihoods of millions of people in the basin (nearly 20 per cent of the African population) and covers one-tenth of the land cover of Africa. The basin is characterized by high population growth and high temporal variability in the river flow and rainfall patterns. The Blue Nile river basin, which contributes 62% of the annual main Nile flow, has faced serious land degradation. This has led to increased soil erosion and loss of soil fertility. The most overwhelming challenge that the basin faces is food insecurity caused by subsistence farming and rain-fed agriculture (over 70% of the basin’s population), together with high rainfall variability. Drought and floods are also critical issues in the Blue Nile basin, with the potential for exacerbation by environmental changes. Understanding how LULC and climate changes influence basin hydrology will therefore enable decision makers to introduce policies aimed at reducing the detrimental effects of future environmental changes on water resources. Understanding types and impacts of major environmental stressors in representative and critical regions of the basin is crucial for developing of effective response strategies for sustainable land- and water-resource management in the Eastern Nile Basin in general, and at the Tana and Beles watersheds in particular. In this study, serially completed and homogenized rainfall and temperature dataset are maintained from 1980 to 2013 to fill-in the gap which characterized previous studies on trend analyses. The new hydroclimatic data revealed that the climate the study region has become wetter and warmer. The proportional contribution of main rainy season rainfall to annual total rainfall has increased. This might result in high runoff and ultimately flooding as well as erosion and sedimentation in the source region of the Blue Nile, and siltation in the downstream reservoirs unless soil and water conservation measures are taking place. In the Tana sub-basin, it is found that expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub are the major contributors to the rise in surface run-off and to the decline in the groundwater component from 1986 to 2010. Similarly, decline of woodland and expansion of cultivation land are found to be the major contributors to the increase in surface run-off and water yield. They also contributed to the decrease in groundwater and actual evapotranspiration components in the Beles watershed. Increased run-off and reduced baseflow and actual evapotranspiration would have negative impacts on water resources, especially in relation to erosion and sedimentation in the upper Blue Nile River Basin. As a result, expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub/woodland appear to be major environmental stressors affecting local water resources. GCMs simulated near-future annual total rainfall and average temperature were used to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment to near-future CC. The results showed an increase in streamflow in the annual and the main rainy season, but decrease in the dry period when compared to the baseline period. Catchment response for future LULC scenario showed opposite effect to that of near-future CC. The combined effects of climate change and LULC dynamics can be quite different from the effects resulting from LULC or CC alone. At the outlet of the Tana watershed, streamflow response is amplified under concurrent land cover and climate change scenarios compared to the baseline scenario; but the streamflow has an augmenting response at the outlet of the Beles watershed under future climate change and land use scenarios compared to that of current period. The important inference from these findings is that it could be possible to alleviate intense floods or droughts due to future climate change by planning LULC to achieve particular hydrological effects of land cover in the basin. Continuing expansion of cultivation land and decrease in natural vegetation, coupled with increased rainfall due to climate change, would result in high surface runoff in the main rainy season, which would subsequently increase flooding, erosion and sedimentation in already degraded lands. Sound mitigation measures should therefore be applied to reduce these adverse environmental consequences. On the other hand, the simulated climate and land-use change impacts on the Tana watershed hydrological regime might increase the availability of streamflow to be harnessed by water-storage structures. In conclusion, the present study has developed an innovative approach to identify the major environmental stressors of critical source region of the Blue Nile River in order to effectively managing the water resources and climate risk. Understanding the catchment responses to environmental changes improves sustainability of the water resources management particularly given that the hydropower and the irrigation schemes are recently established for energy and food security.:TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES 1. General Introduction 2. The study area 3. Gap Filling and Homogenization of Climatological Datasets in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Abstract 3.1. Introduction 3.1.1. Data 3.2. Methodology 3.2.1. Quality control and gap filling 3.2.2. Homogenization 3.3. Results and Discussion 3.3.1. Gap filling 3.3.2. Homogeneity 3.3.3. Verification of the homogenization 3.3.4. Impact of homogenization on the rainfall and temperature series 3.4. Conclusions Acknowledgements 4. Revisiting trend analysis of hydroclimatic data in the Upper Blue Nile basin based on homogenized data Abstract 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Data and Methodology 4. 2.1 Data 4. 2.2 Linear trend 4. 2.3 Trend magnitude 4.3 Results and Discussions 4.3.1. Linear mean climate trends 4.3.1.1. Rainfall 4.3.1.2. Maximum Temperature (Tmax) 4.3.1.3. Minimum Temperature (Tmin) 4.3.1.4. Mean temperature (Tmean) 4.3.1.5. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) 4.3.1.6. Streamflow 4.3.2. Effect of homogenization on Tmax, Tmin, Tmean and DTR linear trends 4.3.3. Linear extreme climate trends 4.3.1. Temperature 4.3.2. Precipitation 4.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 5. Recent Changes in Land Use/Cover in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia 85 Abstract 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Materials and Methods 5.2.1 Data used and image pre-processing 5.2.2 Classification accuracy assessment 5.2.3 Extent and rate of change 5.2.4 Detecting the most systematic transitions (dominant signals of change) 5.4 Results and Discussion 5.4.1 Accuracy assessment 5.4.2 Extent and rate of LULC changes 5.4.3 Rate of land use and land cover change 5.4.4 Detection of most systematic transitions 5.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 6. Hydrological Responses to Land use/cover Changes in the Tana and Beles Watersheds, the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Method 6.2.1 Hydrological modeling 6.2.2 Partial least squares regression 6.3 Results and Discussion 6.3.1 Calibration and validation of SWAT 6.3.2 Impacts of LULC changes on hydrology at the basin scale 6.3.3 Contribution of changes in individual LULCs to hydrological components 6.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 7. Combined Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Hydrology in the Tana and Beles Sub-Basins, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Methodology 7.2.1 Simulation 7.2.2 Climate change scenarios 7.2.3 LULC change scenarios 7.3 Results and Discussion 7.3.1 Future versus current LULC impact on the basin hydrology 7.3.2 Future versus baseline climate 7.3.3 Impact of combined future climate and LULC changes on hydrology 7.4 Uncertainties and Limitations 7.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 8. Overall Conclusions, Recommendations and Future Research Directions 8.1. Overall Conclusions 8.2 Recommendations and Directions for further research References

Abstract In May 2017, a workshop was held in Cairo, Egypt, to explore ways in which researchers doing research on topics related to the Nile Basin can work with journalists, aiming for better communication of science through media. The workshop hosted 40 participants, including communication specialists, scientists, academics, policy makers and NGOs' representatives from Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and international organizations. The workshop concluded that researchers and journalists needed more training in communicating and reporting science. In this respect, IHE Delft Institute partnered with SciDev.Net to develop and run an online course, 'Science Communication Skills for Water Cooperation and Diplomacy', which is described in this chapter. The main objective of the online course that took place between October 2018 and March 2019 was to build the capacity of scientists to engage with the media and effectively communicate science, and to deal with the River Nile as a vehicle of cooperation and development rather than conflict. Overall, the course had largely met the desired objectives. Most respondents greatly appreciated practical exercises, especially those on writing a press release and designing a communication strategy. The training platform was accessible and easy to use for most participants. However, there were areas that did not work as expected, most notably the length of the course.

Why did Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 leave a situation of intensifying conflict, rather than peace along the new international border between Sudan and South Sudan, following South Sudan’s independence in 2011? This chapter tries to answer that question by examining how different understandings of peace affected what was actually done in the CPA negotiations and implementation with reference to border communities, specifically those in Blue Nile State, one of the ‘Three Areas’ treated separately in the peace negotiations and in the final draft of the CPA. I argue that the CPA failed to acknowledge the international dimensions of the Sudanese civil war from 1983 onwards, specifically the politics of shifting relations with Ethiopia. The process of peace-making took place mainly at the elite level of local and international leaders, speaking in very general terms of the Sudanese ‘north’ as a whole, distinct from ‘the south’. The discourse promoted by IGAD itself rested on the assumption that the problem lay between these two entities. The professional peace-makers did not take sufficiently seriously the issues affecting local communities in the transitional zones, especially those who had endured twenty years of living on the shifting front lines of military conflict.