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1
SWAIN, ASHOK. "Ethiopia, the Sudan, and Egypt: The Nile River Dispute." Journal of Modern African Studies 35, no. 4 (December 1997): 675–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022278x97002577.
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The Nile flows for 6,700 kilometres through ten countries in north-eastern Africa – Rwanda, Burundi, Zaïre/Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, the Sudan, and Egypt – before reaching the Mediterranean, and is the longest international river system in the world – see Map 1. Its two main tributaries converge at Khartoum: the White Nile, which originates from Burundi and flows through the Equatorial Lakes, provides a small but steady flow that is fed by the eternal snows of the Ruwenzori (the ‘rain giver’) mountains, while the Blue Nile, which suffers from high seasonal fluctuations, descends from the lofty Ethiopian ‘water tower’ highlands. They provide 86 per cent of the waters of the Nile – Blue Nile 59 per cent, Baro-Akobo (Sobat) 14 per cent, Tekesse (Atbara) 13 per cent – while the contribution from the Equatorial Lakes region is only 14 per cent.
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Mulat, Asegdew G., and Semu A. Moges. "The impacts of Upper Blue Nile Dams construction on agricultural water availability of Sudan." Water Practice and Technology 15, no. 2 (April 23, 2020): 437–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2020.031.
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Abstract The objective of this research is assessing water resource availability in the Blue Nile River for different development scenarios using Mike Hydro modeling. The long term Blue Nile total irrigation water demand will be more than 46.67 × 109m3, which is nearly similar to the naturalized flow (around 48 × 109m3). In the phase II irrigation, water shortfalls increase to 0.38 × 109m3/year. There is up to 2.172 × 109m3/year irrigation water deficit at the full development level in Ethiopia. Due to flow regulation, there are no shortfalls in irrigation in Sudan in either the medium or the long-term. Dams located in Ethiopia give more advantage to the Sudanese schemes than that of Ethiopian regarding irrigation development.
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Treszkai, Ákos. "The River Nile Conflict in the Aspects of Critical Infrastructure Protection." Honvédségi Szemle 148, no. 1 (September 7, 2020): 41–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.35926/hdr.2020.1.3.
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The aim of this paper is to present the River Nile conflict from the aspects of critical infrastructure protection. It is often stated that the next world war will be fought over water, and there are few regions as tense as the Nile Valley. Egypt and Ethiopia have a severe disagreement, Sudan is in the middle of it, and a big geopolitical shift is being played along the world’s longest river. The Grand Renaissance Dam has been un-der construction on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. This dam will be the greatest hydro-electric power plant in Africa. This critical infrastructure has both political and military importance.
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Li, Peng, Zhen He, Jianwu Cai, Jing Zhang, Marye Belete, Jinsong Deng, and Shizong Wang. "Identify the Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Watershed Sediment and Water Yields Dynamics." Sustainability 14, no. 13 (June 22, 2022): 7590. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14137590.
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The construction of large-scale water reservoir facilities in transboundary river basins always arouses intense concern and controversy. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under construction in Ethiopia is perceived to affect water security in Egypt and Sudan. Therefore, this study investigated the water and sediment balance of the Blue Nile River (BNR) basin and identified the spatio-temporal variation in sediment and water yields along with the construction of GERD using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) sediment and water yield models. The BNR basin experienced increasing water and sediment yields between 1992 and 2020 and has shown a growth trend since 2020. The lion’s share of water and sediment yields come from upstream of the GERD. Taken together, these results imply that the construction of the GERD will serve as a water storage and silt trap for Sudan and Egypt.
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Goor, Q., C. Halleux, Y. Mohamed, and A. Tilmant. "Optimal operation of a multipurpose multireservoir system in the Eastern Nile River Basin." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 7, no. 4 (July 6, 2010): 4331–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-7-4331-2010.
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Abstract. The upper Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia is a largely untapped resource despite its huge potential for hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Controversies exist as to whether the numerous infrastructural development projects that are on the drawing board in Ethiopia will generate positive or negative externalities downstream in Sudan and Egypt. This study attempts at 1) examining the (re-)operation of infrastructures, in particular the proposed reservoirs in Ethiopia and the High Aswan Dam and 2) assessing the economic benefits and costs associated with the storage infrastructures in Ethiopia and their spatial and temporal distribution. To achieve this, a basin-wide integrated hydro-economic model has been developed. The model integrates essential hydrologic, economic and institutional components of the river basin in order to explore both the hydrologic and economic consequences of various policy options and planned infrastructural projects. Unlike most of the deterministic economic-hydrologic models reported in the literature, a stochastic programming formulation has been adopted in order to: i) understand the effect of the hydrologic uncertainty on management decisions, ii) determine allocation policies that naturally hedge against the hydrological risk, and iii) assess the relevant risk indicators. The study reveals that the development of four mega dams in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin would change the drawdown refill cycle of the High Aswan Dam. Should the operation of the reservoirs be coordinated, they would enable an average annual saving of at least 2.5 billion m3 through reduced evaporation losses from the Lake Nasser. Moreover, the new reservoirs (Karadobi, Beko-Abo, Mandaya and Border) in Ethiopia would have significant positive impacts on hydropower generation and irrigation in Ethiopia and Sudan: at the basin scale, the annual energy generation is boosted by 38.5 TWh amongst which 14.2 TWh due to storage. Moreover, the regulation capacity of the above mentioned reservoirs would enable an increase of the Sudanese irrigated area by 5.5%.
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Goor, Q., C. Halleux, Y. Mohamed, and A. Tilmant. "Optimal operation of a multipurpose multireservoir system in the Eastern Nile River Basin." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 10 (October 12, 2010): 1895–908. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1895-2010.
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Abstract. The upper Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia is a largely untapped resource despite its huge potential for hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Controversies exist as to whether the numerous infrastructural development projects that are on the drawing board in Ethiopia will generate positive or negative externalities downstream in Sudan and Egypt. This study attempts at (1) examining the (re-)operation of infrastructures, in particular the proposed reservoirs in Ethiopia and the High Aswan Dam and (2) assessing the economic benefits and costs associated with the storage infrastructures in Ethiopia and their spatial and temporal distribution. To achieve this, a basin-wide integrated hydro-economic model has been developed. The model integrates essential hydrologic, economic and institutional components of the river basin in order to explore both the hydrologic and economic consequences of various policy options and planned infrastructural projects. Unlike most of the deterministic economic-hydrologic models reported in the literature, a stochastic programming formulation has been adopted in order to: (i) understand the effect of the hydrologic uncertainty on management decisions, (ii) determine allocation policies that naturally hedge against the hydrological risk, and (iii) assess the relevant risk indicators. The study reveals that the development of four mega dams in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin would change the drawdown refill cycle of the High Aswan Dam. Should the operation of the reservoirs be coordinated, they would enable an average annual saving of at least 2.5 billion m3 through reduced evaporation losses from the Lake Nasser. Moreover, the new reservoirs (Karadobi, Beko-Abo, Mandaya and Border) in Ethiopia would have significant positive impacts on hydropower generation and irrigation in Ethiopia and Sudan: at the basin scale, the annual energy generation is boosted by 38.5 TWh amongst which 14.2 TWh due to storage. Moreover, the regulation capacity of the above mentioned reservoirs would enable an increase of the Sudanese irrigated area by 5.5%.
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King, Andrew, and Paul Block. "An assessment of reservoir filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam." Journal of Water and Climate Change 5, no. 2 (January 3, 2014): 233–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.043.
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Africa's largest hydropower facility is currently under construction on the main stem of the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is poised to facilitate regional development with a 63 billion cubic meter reservoir and 6,000 MW of power generating capacity. To date, however, no reservoir filling rate policy has been established. This policy will have clear implications on the GERD's ability to generate hydropower in the near-term and coincidentally impact people and livelihoods in Sudan and Egypt through reduced streamflow availability. Implications of climate variability and emerging climate change within Ethiopia cast further uncertainty on potential filling policies and system operations. To address this challenge, numerous filling policies are evaluated through a climate-sensitivity approach to estimate impacts on reservoir filling time, hydropower production, and downstream flows. This provides viable and timely points of comparison for regional water managers and politicians negotiating system operations in the midst of ongoing project construction.
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Kansara, Prakrut, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Venkataraman Lakshmi, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa, and Mohamed Abdelaty Sayed. "An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries." Remote Sensing 13, no. 4 (February 15, 2021): 711. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13040711.
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020, indicating a contrasting trend in August and September 2020 for the upstream/downstream water bodies: upstream of the dam rises steeply, while downstream decreases. Our time-series analysis also shows the average monthly precipitation (derived using IMERG) in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia has received an abnormally high amount of rainfall as well as a high amount of runoff (analyzed using GLDAS output). Simultaneously, the study also demonstrates the drying trend downstream at Lake Nasser in Southern Egypt before December 2020. From our results, we estimate that the volume of water at GERD has already increased by 3.584 billion cubic meters, which accounts for about 5.3% of its planned capacity (67.37 billion cubic meters) from 9 July–30 November 2020. Finally, we observed an increasing trend in GRACE anomalies for GERD, whereas, for the Lake Nasser, we observed a decreasing trend. In addition, our study discusses potential interactions between GERD and the rainfall and resulting flood in Sudan. Our study suggests that attention should be drawn to the connection between the GERD filling and potential drought in the downstream countries during the upcoming dry spells in the Blue Nile River Basin. This study provides an open-source technique using Google Earth Engine (GEE) to monitor the changes in water level during the filling of the GERD reservoir. GEE proves to be a powerful as well as an efficient way of analyzing computationally intensive SAR images.
9
Betrie, G. D., Y. A. Mohamed, A. van Griensven, and R. Srinivasan. "Sediment management modelling in the Blue Nile Basin using SWAT model." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 3 (March 8, 2011): 807–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-807-2011.
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Abstract. Soil erosion/sedimentation is an immense problem that has threatened water resources development in the Nile river basin, particularly in the Eastern Nile (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt). An insight into soil erosion/sedimentation mechanisms and mitigation methods plays an imperative role for the sustainable water resources development in the region. This paper presents daily sediment yield simulations in the Upper Blue Nile under different Best Management Practice (BMP) scenarios. Scenarios applied in this paper are (i) maintaining existing conditions, (ii) introducing filter strips, (iii) applying stone bunds (parallel terraces), and (iv) reforestation. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model soil erosion, identify soil erosion prone areas and assess the impact of BMPs on sediment reduction. For the existing conditions scenario, the model results showed a satisfactory agreement between daily observed and simulated sediment concentrations as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.83. The simulation results showed that applying filter strips, stone bunds and reforestation scenarios reduced the current sediment yields both at the subbasins and the basin outlets. However, a precise interpretation of the quantitative results may not be appropriate because some physical processes are not well represented in the SWAT model.
10
Tesfaye, Abonesh, and Roy Brouwer. "Exploring the scope for transboundary collaboration in the Blue Nile river basin: downstream willingness to pay for upstream land use changes to improve irrigation water supply." Environment and Development Economics 21, no. 2 (June 23, 2015): 180–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x15000182.
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AbstractIn this study we model the preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) of downstream farmers in one of the largest irrigation schemes worldwide in Sudan for improved irrigation water supply through transboundary collaboration with farmers upstream in Ethiopia. In a choice experiment, Sudanese farmers are asked to pay an increase in existing irrigation fees to secure future irrigation water availability by either enhancing the removal of sediments in their local irrigation channels or compensating farmers in the Ethiopian highlands for taking soil conservation measures to prevent land degradation and soil erosion. Although Sudanese farmers downstream do not feel very connected to farmers upstream in Ethiopia, we find a high degree of trust in international cooperation and a positive WTP for improved irrigation water supply and water use efficiency through transboundary collaboration.
11
Omer, A. Y. A., Y. S. A. Ali, J. A. Roelvink, A. Dastgheib, P. Paron, and A. Crosato. "Modelling of sedimentation processes inside Roseires Reservoir (Sudan)." Earth Surface Dynamics Discussions 2, no. 1 (March 18, 2014): 153–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esurfd-2-153-2014.
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Abstract. Roseires Reservoir, located on the Blue Nile River, in Sudan, is the first trap to the sediments coming from the upper catchment in Ethiopia, which suffers from high erosion and desertification problems. The reservoir lost already more than one third of its storage capacity due to sedimentation in the last four decades. Appropriate management of the eroded area in the upper basin could mitigate this problem. In order to do that, the areas providing the highest sediment volumes to the river have to be identified, since they should have priority with respect to the application of erosion control practices. This requires studying the sedimentation record inside Roseires Reservoir, with the aim of identifying when and how much sediment from a certain area is deposited. The identification of deposition time is derived from soil stratification inside the reservoir. This requires expensive coring campaigns that need to be optimized. The most promising sampling coring areas were therefore selected beforehand by combining bathymetric data and the results of a depth-averaged morphodynamic model able to record vertical stratification in sediment deposits. The model allowed recognising the areas that are potentially neither subject to net erosion nor to bar migration during the life span of the reservoir. Verification of these results was carried out by analysing sediment stratification from the data collected in subsequent field campaign.
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Omer, A. Y. A., Y. S. A. Ali, J. A. Roelvink, A. Dastgheib, P. Paron, and A. Crosato. "Modelling of sedimentation processes inside Roseires Reservoir (Sudan)." Earth Surface Dynamics 3, no. 2 (April 2, 2015): 223–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-223-2015.
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Abstract. Roseires Reservoir, located on the Blue Nile River in Sudan, is the first trap to the sediments coming from the vast upper river catchment in Ethiopia, which suffers from high erosion and desertification problems. The reservoir has already lost more than one-third of its storage capacity due to sedimentation in the last four decades. Appropriate management of the eroded soils in the upper basin could mitigate this problem. In order to do that, the areas providing the highest sediment volumes to the river have to be identified, since they should have priority with respect to the application of erosion control practices. This requires studying the sedimentation record inside Roseires Reservoir in order to assess when and how much sediment is deposited and to identify its source. This paper deals with the identification of deposition time and soil stratification inside the reservoir, based on historical bathymetric data, numerical modelling and newly acquired soil data. The remoteness of the study area and the extreme climate result in coring campaigns being expensive and difficult. Therefore, these activities need to be optimised and coring locations selected beforehand. This was done by combining bathymetric data and the results of a depth-averaged morphodynamic model recording the vertical stratification in sediment deposits. The model allowed for recognising the areas that are potentially subject to neither net erosion nor bar migration during the lifespan of the reservoir. Verification of these results was carried out by analysing sediment stratification from the data collected during the subsequent field campaign.
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El Baradei, Sherine Ahmed, Ahmed Abodonya, Nahla Hazem, Zeyad Ahmed, Mohamed El Sharawy, Mohamed Abdelghaly, and Hajer Nabil. "Ethiopian Dam Optimum Hydraulic Operating Conditions to Reduce Unfavorable Impacts on Downstream Countries." Civil Engineering Journal 8, no. 9 (September 1, 2022): 1906–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-2022-08-09-011.
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As noted by several researchers, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River is expected to have unfavorable consequences for downstream countries like Egypt and Sudan. To limit GERD's negative effects on downstream countries, its operation should be secure, and its upstream water level should be ideal. However, none of the studies carried out the ideal operating scenarios from the perspective of controlling the number of gate openings. Accordingly, this study evaluates the optimal operating scenarios of the GERD and its impact on downstream countries by adopting a mathematical model to analyze the number of gates that can be opened and the depth of opening during different filling years. The paper also presents an environmental impact assessment of some GERD significant factors during construction, filling, and operation, with the goal of developing a mitigation strategy. The results showed that opening 5 gates at 4.56 m over a 10-year filling period would be the safest, most accepted, and most advantageous for Ethiopia and downstream countries. Moreover, creating a water-saving management plan in Egypt to overcome GERD's negative impacts would cost 877 billion Egyptian pounds. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-09-011 Full Text: PDF
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Eldardiry, Hisham, and Faisal Hossain. "Understanding Reservoir Operating Rules in the Transboundary Nile River Basin Using Macroscale Hydrologic Modeling with Satellite Measurements." Journal of Hydrometeorology 20, no. 11 (November 1, 2019): 2253–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-19-0058.1.
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Abstract Challenges to manage and secure a sustainable water supply are expected to become more acute in Egypt as the lowermost riparian country of the Nile basin with the construction of new transboundary water infrastructures in Ethiopia and Sudan. To understand the impact of such transboundary water projects on Egypt, it is first necessary to develop a modeling tool that can simulate potential flow and reservoir scenarios inside Egypt without requiring in situ hydrologic or transboundary dam data that are typically unavailable. This study presents the water management value of a modeling framework to predict the current and future reservoir operating rules in the lower Nile basin using satellite Earth observations and hydrologic models. The platform comprises the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite observations. Reservoir storage change is estimated using altimeter and visible imagery of lake area for Lake Nasser and then applied to infer reservoir operation for High Aswan Dam (HAD). The modeling framework based on satellite observations yielded a simulated streamflow at the outlet for Blue Nile basin (BNB) with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.68 with a correlation and RMSE of 0.94 and 1095 m3 s−1, respectively. Storage and outflow discharge of HAD were estimated for the period of 1998–2002 within 1.4% accuracy (0.076 km3 month−1) when compared with published reports. Because BNB controls the lion’s share of the variability to HAD inflow inside Egypt, the proposed modeling framework is appropriate for policy-makers to understand the implications of transboundary projects on the future water security of Egypt.
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Lorenz, Christof, Tanja C. Portele, Patrick Laux, and Harald Kunstmann. "Bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated seasonal forecasts: a long-term reference forecast product for the water sector in semi-arid regions." Earth System Science Data 13, no. 6 (June 15, 2021): 2701–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021.
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Abstract. Seasonal forecasts have the potential to substantially improve water management particularly in water-scarce regions. However, global seasonal forecasts are usually not directly applicable as they are provided at coarse spatial resolutions of at best 36 km and suffer from model biases and drifts. In this study, we therefore apply a bias-correction and spatial-disaggregation (BCSD) approach to seasonal precipitation, temperature and radiation forecasts of the latest long-range seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As reference we use data from the ERA5-Land offline land surface rerun of the latest ECMWF reanalysis ERA5. Thereby, we correct for model biases and drifts and improve the spatial resolution from 36 km to 0.1∘. This is performed for example over four predominately semi-arid study domains across the world, which include the river basins of the Karun (Iran), the São Francisco River (Brazil), the Tekeze–Atbara river and Blue Nile (Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea), and the Catamayo–Chira river (Ecuador and Peru). Compared against ERA5-Land, the bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated forecasts have a higher spatial resolution and show reduced biases and better agreement of spatial patterns than the raw forecasts as well as remarkably reduced lead-dependent drift effects. But our analysis also shows that computing monthly averages from daily bias-corrected forecasts particularly during periods with strong temporal climate gradients or heteroscedasticity can lead to remaining biases especially in the lowest- and highest-lead forecasts. Our SEAS5 BCSD forecasts cover the whole (re-)forecast period from 1981 to 2019 and include bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated daily and monthly ensemble forecasts for precipitation, average, minimum, and maximum temperature as well as for shortwave radiation from the issue date to the next 215 d and 6 months, respectively. This sums up to more than 100 000 forecasted days for each of the 25 (until the year 2016) and 51 (from the year 2017) ensemble members and each of the five analyzed variables. The full repository is made freely available to the public via the World Data Centre for Climate at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D01_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D01, Karun Basin (Iran), Lorenz et al., 2020b), https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D02_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D02: São Francisco Basin (Brazil), Lorenz et al., 2020c), https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D03_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D03: basins of the Tekeze–Atbara and Blue Nile (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan), Lorenz et al., 2020d), and https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D04_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D04: Catamayo–Chira Basin (Ecuador, Peru), Lorenz et al., 2020a). It is currently the first publicly available daily high-resolution seasonal forecast product that covers multiple regions and variables for such a long period. It hence provides a unique test bed for evaluating the performance of seasonal forecasts over semi-arid regions and as driving data for hydrological, ecosystem or climate impact models. Therefore, our forecasts provide a crucial contribution for the disaster preparedness and, finally, climate proofing of the regional water management in climatically sensitive regions.
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Baratti, E., A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi. "Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 12 (December 13, 2012): 4651–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012.
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Abstract. We propose an original approach to infer the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scale. Our purpose is to estimate the peak flow that is expected for an assigned return period T, independently of the season in which it occurs (i.e. annual flood frequency regime), as well as in different selected sub-yearly periods (i.e. seasonal flood frequency regime). While a huge literature exists on annual flood frequency analysis, few studies have focused on the estimation of seasonal flood frequencies despite the relevance of the issue, for instance when scheduling along the months of the year the construction phases of river engineering works directly interacting with the active river bed, like for instance dams. An approximate method for joint frequency analysis is presented here that guarantees consistency between fitted annual and seasonal distributions, i.e. the annual cumulative distribution is the product of the seasonal cumulative distribution functions, under the assumption of independence among floods in different seasons. In our method the parameters of the seasonal frequency distributions are fitted by maximising an objective function that accounts for the likelihoods of both seasonal and annual peaks. In contrast to previous studies, our procedure is conceived to allow the users to introduce subjective weights to the components of the objective function in order to emphasize the fitting of specific seasons or of the annual peak flow distribution. An application to the time series of the Blue Nile daily flows at the Sudan–Ethiopia border is presented.
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Baratti, E., A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi. "Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scale." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 6 (June 27, 2012): 7947–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-7947-2012.
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Abstract. We propose an original approach to infer the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scale. Our purpose is to estimate the peak flow that is expected for an assigned return period T, independently of the season in which it occurs (i.e. annual flood frequency regime), as well as in different selected sub-yearly periods (i.e. seasonal flood frequency regime). While a huge literature exists on annual flood frequency analysis, few studies have focused on the estimation of seasonal flood frequencies despite the relevance of the issue, for instance when scheduling along the months of the year the construction phases of river engineering works directly interacting with the active river bed, like for instance dams. An approximate method for joint frequency analysis is presented here that guarantees consistency between fitted annual and seasonal distributions, i.e. the annual cumulative distribution is the product of the seasonal cumulative distribution functions, under the assumption of independence among floods in different seasons. In our method the parameters of the seasonal frequency distributions are fitted by maximising an objective function that accounts for the likelihoods of both seasonal and annual peaks. Differently from previous studies, our procedure is conceived to allow the users to introduce subjective weights to the components of the objective function in order to emphasize the fitting of specific seasons or of the annual peak flow distribution. An application to the time series of the Blue Nile daily flows at Sudan-Ethiopia border is presented.
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Saad Omer, T. Z., S. E. Ahmed, and A. Karimi. "OPTIMAL OPERATION OF MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIRS IN SERIES: ROSEIRES AND SENNAR CASE STUDY." Міжвідомчий тематичний науковий збірник "Меліорація і водне господарство", no. 2 (December 23, 2021): 5–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.31073/mivg202102-310.
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The Roseires-Sennar Dams System (RSDS) at lower part of Blue Nile River play a vital role in water supply to the irrigation schemes in Sudan. The existing rule curves for this system belong to 1925 and 1966 for Sennar and Roseires reservoirs, respectively. Introduction of new irrigation schemes, approved climate change impacts on Blue Nile River flow and upstream developments in Ethiopia as well as the heightening of the Roseires Dam from elevation 480 to 490 m.a.s.l have shown the RSDS is losing its efficiency in terms of fully supplying the water demands. The literature addresses the simulation of Roseires and Sennar dams, and tries to find the best coordinated rule curves through a limited number of operation rules to find optimal operating rules for reservoirs that minimize the impacts of new developments, water demand growth and climate change on water supply to various demands on Blue Nile River. Such decisions are locally optimal in best condition since they do not consider the storage and carry-over capability of reservoirs that can transfer the non-optimal (locally optimal) decisions to other time steps of planning horizon and creat shortages in other time steps. Therefore, aim of this research is to find optimal coordinating operation rules for Roseires and Sennar dams that through a non-linear multi-period optimization model that considers the conditions of climate change, flow regime and water demand as scenarios. Model is validated by comparison with observed reservoir operation during November 1999 till May 2000. Eighteen scenarios that cover the normal, dry and very dry flow regimes, along with three suggested crop patterns and climate change impact are analyzed. Results shows in normal conditions of flow, crop pattern 2 is the most recommended with more than 11 Billion USD marginal profit and fully supplying the water demand and 1530 GWh energy generation per annum. The coordinated rule curves have a totally different pattern of emptying and filling compared with existing ones. Rule curves change from one flow regime to another, which proves how change in conditions of the system has influence on optimal operation rules. Comparison of marginal profits with crop pattern 2 shows in three inflow conditions of normal, dry and very dry years multi-period optimization model could keep the marginal profits above 11 Billion USD, let’s say, 11,050, 11,056 and 11,042 Billion USD, respectively, which shows the robustness of model in dealing with all conditions and keeping the marginal profits not affected. However, the Roseires rule curves are different in these three condition, while Sennar rules curves are almost the same. Without climate change impact, model can manage to supply the water demands fully in all flow conditions. However, water supply reliability is affected by climate change with all crop patterns. Roseires-Sennar Dams system in a normal year under climate change can produce 10,688 Billion USD marginal profit and 1371 GWh per year energy. It shows that model could manage the system performance so that climate change decrease the marginal profit by 3.27%, while inflow is reduced by 25% and water demands and evaporation increased by 19%. Energy generation under climate change has decreased by 10.5%, which is the most affected sector. Crop pattern 2 and 3 are not suitable for climate change conditions since up to 65% deficit in water supply can happen if very dry year realizing with climate change. In very dry conditions crop pattern 1 is more suitable to be practiced.
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Hassaballah, Khalid, Yasir Mohamed, Stefan Uhlenbrook, and Khalid Biro. "Analysis of streamflow response to land use and land cover changes using satellite data and hydrological modelling: case study of Dinder and Rahad tributaries of the Blue Nile (Ethiopia–Sudan)." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 10 (October 17, 2017): 5217–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5217-2017.
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Abstract. Understanding the land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) and their implication on surface hydrology of the Dinder and Rahad basins (D&R, approximately 77 504 km2) is vital for the management and utilization of water resources in the basins. Although there are many studies on LULCC in the Blue Nile Basin, specific studies on LULCC in the D&R are still missing. Hence, its impact on streamflow is unknown. The objective of this paper is to understand the LULCC in the Dinder and Rahad and its implications on streamflow response using satellite data and hydrological modelling. The hydrological model has been derived by different sets of land use and land cover maps from 1972, 1986, 1998 and 2011. Catchment topography, land cover and soil maps are derived from satellite images and serve to estimate model parameters. Results of LULCC detection between 1972 and 2011 indicate a significant decrease in woodland and an increase in cropland. Woodland decreased from 42 to 14 % and from 35 to 14 % for Dinder and Rahad, respectively. Cropland increased from 14 to 47 % and from 18 to 68 % in Dinder and Rahad, respectively. The model results indicate that streamflow is affected by LULCC in both the Dinder and the Rahad rivers. The effect of LULCC on streamflow is significant during 1986 and 2011. This could be attributed to the severe drought during the mid-1980s and the recent large expansion in cropland.
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E.H., Osman, Gumaa Y.S.A., and Elhag A.M.H. "Land Cover/Land Use Trends along the Blue Nile River Blue Nile State – Sudan." IRA-International Journal of Applied Sciences (ISSN 2455-4499) 13, no. 1 (February 6, 2019): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.21013/jas.v13.n1.p1.
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<p>The study focused on quantifying the extent and sources of the deterioration of the vegetation cover of the study area at the Sudanese Blue Nile watershed in relation to agriculture extension policy, inefficient management and Lack of governmental policy. </p><p>The Research was based on forest and vegetation inventory and soil analysis to determine the current situation using ground survey, forest inventory and remote sensing data as well as secondary information from other sources to cover historical records from 1990 to 2015.</p><p>The results showed a significant change in natural ecosystems during the study period due to the change in the land use patterns. The Closed forests, open forests, and rural settlement areas were found to decrease by -90%, -43% and -32% respectively during the period (1990-2000). This negative trend was reflected in a positive trend showed by expansion in agriculture (+267%), horticulture (+73%), bare land (144%), and urban areas (12%). During the period (2010-2015), which was the civil war period, the area of closed forests, open forests and urban areas were increased, in comparison to that of 1990-2000) by 201,10, and 247% respectively, while that of agriculture, Rural areas, and bare lands is negative (-51, -54 and -68% respectively).</p><p>The major factor for the change is mainly attributed to the migration of rural people towards urban areas due to civil war and economic crises. In addition, it is expected that there are other factors such as the absence of clear plans and coordination between concerned government authorities, at local and national levels, which may need further investigations and studies to clear the whole picture.</p>
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Herrer Fernández, Sara. "Water conflict analysis: The Nile River dispute." Análisis Jurídico - Político 4, no. 8 (July 28, 2022): 83–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.22490/26655489.5877.
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The Nile River Basin is the source of life of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Upstream countries, principally as water for agriculture and hydropower. The resource is the focus of much contested development between downstream and upstream countries. In recent years, largely due to climate change and rapid population growth, there has been an increasing level of conflict related to water scarcity and the consequent aggravation of food insecurity. Additionally, transboundary masses of water have an even more complex water management, becoming one of the main geopolitical issues of today. This conflict is the result of the ambition of the main riparian countries, notably Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia and other upstream nations, to claim a greater share of the water supplies available in the watershed. That is precisely why a cooperative Game theory provides valuable insights into strategic disputes over water resources. In this paper, non-cooperative strategies are assessed to determine the possible outcomes of the dispute.
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Negasa Gelana Debisa. "The Utilization of Nile Water among the Riparian States: Tensions and Controversies on the Filling and Annual Operation of the GERD." PanAfrican Journal of Governance and Development (PJGD) 2, no. 1 (February 28, 2021): 31–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.46404/panjogov.v2i1.2909.
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Despite the fear entertained by the downstream countries of the Nile basin, little attention was paid to the right of Ethiopia to utilize the Blue Nile waters. The purpose of this study is to explain the tension between upper riparian Ethiopia and downstream Sudan and Egypt on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling and controversies on its annual operation. A descriptive qualitative research method was employed to describe the tension concerning the filling and controversies on the annual operation of the GERD. The investigation relied on secondary sources of data obtained from YouTube videos of international broadcast media such as CGTN, Aljazeera, and TRT World. In addition, national broadcast media of Ethiopia (Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation and Ahadu Television), Sudan (Sudan Tribune), and Egypt (Daily News Egypt) accessed to make data balance. Moreover, letters from these countries sent to the UNSC have been reviewed. Besides, published and unpublished secondary sources on the Nile basin hydro-politics and the GERD were reviewed. The finding of the study reveals that the filling of the dam does not constitute significant harm as it can be seen from the first phase filling given the hydrological condition in the Eastern Nile Basin. The controversy regarding the annual operation of the GERD arises from the fear that their historical and current water use will be threatened. They wanted to conclude the binding agreement in their favor at the expense of Ethiopia’s future utilization of Blue Nile water. Their fear is Ethiopia would not remain faithful to its promises that the dam and its filling do not affect their water security. Rather than basing their claim on invalid colonial treaties, Egypt and Sudan should acknowledge Ethiopia’s right to utilize the Blue Nile water resource and fill the dam without causing significant harm. It is suggested to clear distrust and discuss issues of common concern by tolerating short-term risk for the long-term collective prosperity.
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Abu Sabah, Rasha Babiker Gurashi, Abubaker Haroun Mohamed Adam, and Dawoud Mohamed Ali. "Assessment of Water Quality of Blue Nile River in Sudan." Journal of Agronomy Research 1, no. 3 (December 7, 2018): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.14302/issn.2639-3166.jar-18-2457.
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The objectives of this study were to quantify the fresh water quality of Blue Nile River before processing, identify the pollutants, and to determine the most polluted areas, and their impacts on living organisms as well as the surrounding environment. Thus, random water samples were collected and analyzed at the laboratory of the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, Ground water and Wadis Directorates - Khartoum. The outcomes were compared with the World Health Organization standardization. The results revealed variations in the concentration of the studied elements taken from the different locations. But, the results indicated that the water quality is good, and it is within the permissible water use. However, further study is recommended to include seasonal variation as well as the biological analysis.
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Johnson, Peggy A., and P. Douglas Curtis. "Water Balance of Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia." Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 120, no. 3 (May 1994): 573–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9437(1994)120:3(573).
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Gelete, Gebre, Huseyin Gokcekus, and Tagesse Gichamo. "Impact of climate change on the hydrology of Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia: a review." Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, no. 4 (October 3, 2019): 1539–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.014.
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Abstract Climate change alters the spacial and temporal availability of water resources by affecting the hydrologic cycle. The main objective of this paper is to review the climate change effect on the water resources of the Blue Nile River, Ethiopia. The impact of climate change on water resources is highly significant as all natural ecosystems and humans are heavily dependent on water. It alters precipitation, temperature, and streamflow of the Blue Nile river basin which is threatening the lives and livelihoods of people and life-supporting systems. Rainfall within the Blue Nile river basin is highly erratic and seasonal due to it being located in the inter-tropical convergent zone. The temperature and sediment load are shown to increase in the future while the rainfall and streamflow are decreasing. The Blue Nile basin is characterized by highly erosive rainfall, erodible soil, and shrinking forest cover. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation measures should be applied by considering these characteristics of the basin. Watershed management methods like afforestation and water conservation are recommended to reduce the impact on the Blue Nile basin.
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YIMER, Nigusu Adem. "ETHIOPIA: THE CHANGING ASPECTS OF THE ETHIO-EGIPT WATER DIPLOMACY – KEY DRIVES, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS." Conflict Studies Quarterly, no. 41 (October 5, 2022): 78–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.24193/csq.41.5.
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Starting the inception of the 2010s, Ethiopia’s relations with Egypt have been experiencing one of the deepest crises in the relationship of the two countries’ history. Ethiopia, one of the upper riparian states of the Nile River not only theoretically challenged the exclusive veto power of Egypt over the Nile River but also practically start constructing one of Africa’s largest hydropower dams on the Blue Nile since 2011. The challenging behavior of Ethiopia over the Nile River worried the long-standing regional hegemon, Egypt. Against this background, this paper aims to forward a new insight into how and why Ethiopia challenged the long-standing superior-subordinate Egypt-led order over the Nile River. Moreover, in its discussion, the paper tries to address key drives, challenges, and prospects of Ethiopia-Egypt water diplomacy. The paper also illustrates how and why the Ethio-Egypt water diplomacy strain becomes a cross-cut on the two nation’s foreign policy matters. The paper has also attempted to understand how the superior-subordinate power duality approach works over the Nile River against the new balancer. Keywords: Ethiopia, Egypt, Relation, Nile River, Challenges, Prospects
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Russo, Antonio, Getaneh Assefa, and Balemwal Atnafu. "Sedimentary evolution of the Abay River (Blue Nile) Basin, Ethiopia." Neues Jahrbuch für Geologie und Paläontologie - Monatshefte 1994, no. 5 (May 1, 1994): 291–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/njgpm/1994/1994/291.
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Mohieldeen, Yasir Elginiad. "More water flows from Western Sudan as virtual water than the flow of the River Nile in former Sudan." Water Policy 18, no. 3 (October 28, 2015): 533–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2015.130.
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This study argues that by mobilising ‘social resources’, communities in water-scarce, semi-arid areas can not only successfully sustain a livelihood, but they can also play an important role in the water budget of their semi-arid regions. The pastoralist communities in the Darfur region of west Sudan utilise the limited volumes of green – root-zone – water in the soil to rear livestock. They have for centuries developed and adopted a very adaptive management system that has enabled them to utilise the green water of the Nile Basin. The embedded green water in livestock totals more than Sudan's annual share – 18.5 km3 – of the Nile River flow allocated to it by the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement. This study has revealed that this embedded ‘virtual water’ amounts to 37.6 km3. Results show that this silent, unrecognised, green water has been providing a solution to the water requirements of the Nile economies. It has been suggested that if Western Sudan's livestock were to be produced using fresh/blue water from the Nile, the national water balance of the Sudan would be very seriously impacted and the economy would be much less secure than it has been for the past half century.
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Garzanti, Eduardo, Sergio Andò, Giovanni Vezzoli, Ada Ali Abdel Megid, and Ahmed El Kammar. "Petrology of Nile River sands (Ethiopia and Sudan): Sediment budgets and erosion patterns." Earth and Planetary Science Letters 252, no. 3-4 (December 2006): 327–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.10.001.
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Muluneh, T., and W. Mamo. "Morphometric Analysis of Didessa River Catchment in Blue Nile Basin, Western Ethiopia." Science, Technology and Arts Research Journal 3, no. 3 (November 18, 2014): 191. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/star.v3i3.31.
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Saad, Magdi H. "The Distribution of the Heavy Metals in Soil Sample Along Blue Nile During overflow Season." Applied Physics Research 10, no. 1 (January 30, 2017): 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/apr.v10n1p19.
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The research cared out to calculate the heavy metals deposition for the soil of the Blue Nile along the edges of two sides, starting from the Sudan Ethiopia border end to the Khartoum state in Tuti Island. The samples were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) technique. The results show that there is a significant difference for most of the concentration of the elements deposition on two sides of the Blue Nile outside of Nile channel for that area which covered by water after the overflow. Heavy metals Cr, Fe, Co, Cu, and Zn concentration deposition are increased in the direction of the water to Khartoum, while Ni and Pb concentrations are decreased in the same direction. K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Br, Rb, Sr, and Zr heavy metal concentrations are varied but in general remains equals.
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Mehari, Abrehet Kahsay, Shewit Gebremedhin, and Belayneh Ayele. "Effects of Bahir Dar Textile Factory Effluents on the Water Quality of the Head Waters of Blue Nile River, Ethiopia." International Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2015 (2015): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/905247.
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The study was conducted in 2013/14 with the objective of determining the effects of Bahir Dar textile factory effluents on the head of Blue Nile River water quality. Dissolve oxygen was higher at the upstream site of the river, whereas BOD5, TDS, and total alkalinity values were higher at wastewater outlet of the factory site. The mean values of dissolved oxygen, BOD5, and total alkalinity were above maximum permissible limits set by WHO for drinking water at head of Blue Nile River. The mean value of BOD5 was above permissible limit of IFC for textile effluents to be discharged to surface water. A total of 836 aquatic macroinvertebrate individuals belonging to 21 families were collected. The Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index, the Hilsenhoff family-level biotic index, family richness, and percent dipterans were calculated. Hilsenhoff family-level biotic index and percent dipterans metrics differed significantly among sampling sites(P<0.05). Hilsenhoff family-level biotic index was higher at the most downstream site but percent dipterans were higher at site of discharge of effluent to the head of Blue Nile River. Therefore, there is indication that effluent demands frequent control and proper treatment before being discharged to the environment.
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Kwesi Kyirewiah, Francis. "Water Diplomacy: And the Share of the Nile River between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan." Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences 13, no. 1 (January 5, 2022): 32. http://dx.doi.org/10.36941/mjss-2022-0004.
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Water diplomacy across international borders can be a useful tool in solving problems related to the shared water resources of the political entities involved, especially when the interests of the countries are diverse. Water disputes can likely lead to potential conflicts if not properly address in a holistic manner to satisfy all parties concerned. Many discussions about water resources that cut across international borders have focused on their potential for either conflict or cooperation. Africa as a continent with shared resources is not isolated from these enormous challenges concerning the share of natural resources such as water. Africa is generally seen as a fragile region, and the signs of water conflicts in it have begun to appear in clear and dangerous forms. Diplomatic options for settling water disputes and avoiding any potential repercussions seems for the likelihood. Notwithstanding, these options Water Diplomacy has many challenges that limit its effectiveness owing to the deep political tensions among the countries. This study focused on analyzing the concept of water diplomacy and look into the dispute over the share of the Nile River, while highlighting the legitimate right of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in line with international conventions on water resources.
Received: 24 September 2021 / Accepted: 25 November 2021 / Published: 5 January 2022
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Yimere, Abay, and Engdawork Assefa. "Assessment of the Water-Energy Nexus under Future Climate Change in the Nile River Basin." Climate 9, no. 5 (May 18, 2021): 84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli9050084.
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This study investigated the Water-Energy relationship in the Nile River Basin under changing climate conditions using an energy and water model. Climate change will likely affect both water and energy resources, which will create challenges for future planning and decision making, particularly considering the uncertainty surrounding the direction and magnitude of such effects. According to the assessment model, when countries depend heavily on hydropower for energy, power generation is determined by climate variability. For example, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are more hydropower-dependent than Burundi or Rwanda. As a result, the trading relationships and economic gains of these countries shift according to climate variability. Among 18 climate scenarios, four demonstrate a change in climate and runoff. Under these scenarios, trading partnerships and economic gains will favor Ethiopia and Egypt instead of Sudan and Egypt. This study examines the extent of potential climate challenges, their effects on the Nile River Basin, and recommends several solutions for environmental planners and decision makers. Although the proposed model has the novel ability of conducting scientific analyses with limited data, this research is still limited by data accessibility. Finally, the study will contribute to the literature on the climate chamber effects on regional and international trade.
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Mekkonen Bekele, Teferi. "A Decade of Regional Confrontation over the Nile Waters." Archiv orientální 84, no. 1 (May 4, 2016): 23–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.47979/aror.j.84.1.23-50.
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This article examines how unilateral actions hindered the imperative for cooperation between Ethiopia, Egypt and the Sudan over the use of the waters of the Nile River. It focuses on the remarkable strategic shift away from the idea of comprehensive Basinwide hydraulic projects – that would have benefited all the states and hence would have brought about cooperation in the Nile Valley – to Egypt’s unilateral decision to erect the High Dam at Aswan in the early 1950s. It examines in detail Ethiopia’s counter response to the Aswan High Dam Project and the subsequent Egypt-Sudanese bilateral negotiations on the division of Nile Waters through the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, and how the discrimination inherent in the Agreement vis-à-vis the upstream countries, particularly Ethiopia, triggered long years of legal wrangling and stalemate among the Nile Basin states. It also argues that the involvement of Cold War crusaders and the Basin states’ alignment to opposing ideological camps further complicated the hydropolitics of the Nile and deepened the differences between the Basin states. Finally, the article suggests what a lasting solution to the hydropolitics of the Nile should consist of.
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Tesfaye, Gizaw. "Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Rate in the Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia." American Journal of Environmental Protection 11, no. 1 (2022): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221101.11.
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Elzeiny, Radwa, Mossad Khadr, Shreen Zahran, and Ebrahim Rashwan. "Homogeneity Analysis of Rainfall Series in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia." Journal of Engineering Research 3, no. 9 (September 1, 2019): 46–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.21608/erjeng.2019.125704.
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Bokke, Andualem Shigute, Meron Teferi Taye, Patrick Willems, and Shimelis Asefu Siyoum. "Validation of General Climate Models (GCMs) over Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia." Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 07, no. 01 (2017): 65–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2017.71006.
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Tegegne, Getachew, Assefa M. Melesse, Dereje H. Asfaw, and Abeyou W. Worqlul. "Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia." Hydrology 7, no. 3 (July 20, 2020): 44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030044.
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The frequency and intensity of flood quantiles and its attendant damage in agricultural establishments have generated a lot of issues in Ethiopia. Moreover, precise estimates of flood quantiles are needed for efficient design of hydraulic structures; however, quantification of these quantiles in data-scarce regions has been a continuing challenge in hydrologic design. Flood frequency analysis is thus essential to reduce possible flood damage by investigating the most suitable flood prediction model. The annual maximum discharges from six representative stations in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin were fitted to the commonly used nine statistical distributions. This study also assessed the performance evolution of the probability distributions with varying spatial scales, such that three different spatial scales of small-, medium-, and large-scale basins in the Blue Nile River Basin were considered. The performances of the candidate probability distributions were assessed using three goodness-of-fit test statistics, root mean square error, and graphical interpretation approaches to investigate the robust probability distribution for flood frequency analysis over different basin spatial scales. Based on the overall analyses, the generalized extreme value distribution was proven to be a robust model for flood frequency analysis in the study region. The generalized extreme value distribution significantly improved the performance of the flood prediction over different spatial scales. The generalized extreme value flood prediction performance improvement measured in root mean square error varied between 5.84 and 67.91% over other commonly used probability distribution models. Thus, the flood frequency analysis using the generalized extreme value distribution could be essential for the efficient planning and design of hydraulic structures in the Blue Nile River Basin. Furthermore, this study suggests that, in the future, significant efforts should be put to conduct similar flood frequency analyses over the other major river basins of Ethiopia.
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Betrie, G. D., Y. A. Mohamed, A. van Griensven, R. Srinivasan, and A. Mynett. "Sediment management modelling in Blue Nile Basin using SWAT model." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 7, no. 4 (August 11, 2010): 5497–524. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-7-5497-2010.
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Abstract. Soil erosion/sedimentation is a colossal problem that has menaced water resources development in the Nile, particularly in Eastern Nile (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt). An insight into soil erosion/sedimentation mechanism and mitigation methods plays an indispensable role for the sustainable water resources development in the region. This paper presents a daily sediment yield simulation in the Upper Blue Nile under different Best Management Practices (BMPs) scenarios. The scenarios were baseline (existing condition), Buffer strips, stone bund (parallel terrace), and reforestation. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model soil erosion, identify soil erosion prone areas and assess the impact of BMPs on sediment reduction. The study found satisfactory agreement between daily observed and simulated sediment concentration with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)=0.88, percent bias (PBIAS)=−0.05%, and ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR)=0.35 for calibration and NSE=0.83, RSR=0.61 and PBIAS=−11% for validation. The sediment yield for baseline scenario was 117×106 t yr−1. The buffer-strips, stone-bund and reforestation reduced the sediment yield at outlet of the Upper Blue Nile basin by 44%, 41% and 11%, respectively. The sediment reduction at subbasins outlets varied from 29% to 68% by buffer strip, 9% to 69% by stone-bund and 46% to 77% by reforestation. This study clearly demonstrates the efficacy of catchment management intervention (BMPs) for sustainable water resources development in the Eastern Nile basin.
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Williams, Martin A. J. "A river flowing through a desert: late Quaternary environments in the Nile basin – current understanding and unresolved questions." Journal of Palaeosciences 70, no. (1-2) (September 10, 2021): 267–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.54991/jop.2021.22.
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Late Quaternary environments in the Nile Basin reflect the influence of the African summer monsoon upon plant cover, sediment yield and flood discharge in the Ethiopian and Ugandan headwaters of the Nile. Intervals of prolonged and very high Nile flow coincide with times of stronger summer monsoon and have been dated using a combination of 14C, OSL and 10Be methods. Periods of high Nile flow into the eastern Mediterranean coincide with the formation of highly organic sedimentary layers termed sapropels. Ages obtained so far for these times of sustained middle to late Pleistocene high flow in the Blue and White Nile are broadly coeval with sapropel beds S8 (ca 217 ka), S7 (ca 195 ka), S6 (ca 172 ka), S5 (ca 124 ka), S4 (ca 102 ka) S3 (ca 81 ka), S2 (ca 55–50 ka) and S1 (10–6.5 ka). Sapropel 5 (ca 124 ka) was synchronous with extreme Blue Nile floods and the formation of the 386 m lake in the lower White Nile Valley, as well as with a prolonged wet phase in the eastern Sahara. Fluctuations in Nile flow and sapropel formation reflect the influence of the precessional cycle upon the East African monsoon.
Between 75 ka and 19 ka the climate in the Nile headwaters region became progressively colder and drier. During the Last Glacial Maximum, Lake Tana in Ethiopia and Lake Victoria in Uganda became dry, flow in the White Nile was reduced to a trickle, and the Blue Nile and Atbara became highly seasonal bed–load rivers. The return of the summer monsoon at 14.5 ka ushered in extreme Blue Nile floods, widespread flooding across the Nile Basin and the formation of the 382 m lake in the lower White Nile Valley. There was a brief return to aridity during the Younger Dryas (12.8–11.5 ka), after which the climate again became wetter and widespread flooding in the Nile Valley resumed. The early Holocene floods were later followed by incision and creation of the modern relatively narrow flood plain.
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Eldaw, Elsiddig, Tao Huang, Adam Khalifa Mohammed, and Yahaya Muhama. "Stochastic Time series analysis of Runoff data of the Blue Nile at Eldeim, Sudan." E3S Web of Conferences 81 (2019): 01005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20198101005.
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To improve the management of operation system for the Roseires reservoir it is necessary to know the hydrological system of the Blue Nile river, which is the main water source of the reservoir. In this work, a Modified Thomas Fiering model for generating and forecasting monthly flow is used. The methodological procedure is applied on the data obtained at the gauging station of Eldeim in Blue Nile, Sudan. The study uses the monthly flows data for years 1965 to 2009. After estimation the model parameters, the synthetic time series of monthly flows are simulated. The results revealed that the model maintained most of the basic statistical descriptive parameters of historical data. Also, the Modified Thomas Fiering model is applied to predict the values of the next fifty-five years, with excellent results that conserved most basic statistical characteristics of runoff historical series. The Modified Thomas Fiering model is able to realistically reconstruct and predict the annual data and shows promising statistical indices.
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Bombelli, Giovanni, Stefano Tomiet, Alberto Bianchi, and Daniele Bocchiola. "Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams." Water 13, no. 5 (March 6, 2021): 716. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13050716.
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Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, Ethiopia is looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., the Blue Nile, the greatest tributary of Nile river). Besides other dams on the Omo river, the GIBE family, Ethiopia is now building the largest hydropower plant of Africa, the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), on the Blue Nile river, leading to tensions between Ethiopia, and Egypt, due to potentially conflictive water management. In addition, present and prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, and this thereby is relevant for downstream water users, population, and environment. Here, we evaluated water management for the GERD, and GIBE III dams, under present, and future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power, to describe (i) hydrological budget, and flow routing and (ii) optimal/maximum hydropower production from the two dams, under unconstrained (i.e., no release downstream besides MIF) and constrained (i.e., with fair release downstream) simulation. We then used climate change scenarios from the reports CMIP5/6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) until 2100, to assess future hydropower production. Our results demonstrate that the filling phase of the GERD, particularly critical, have optimal filling time of 5 years or so. Stream flows at GERD could be greater than the present ones (control run CR) at half century (2050–2059), but there could be large decrease at the end of century (2090–2099). Energy production at half century may increase, and then decrease until the end of century. In GIBE III discharges would increase both at half century, and at the end of century, and so would energy production. Constrained, and unconstrained simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential for shared water management in both plants.
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Abate, Mengiste, Jan Nyssen, Tammo S. Steenhuis, Michael M. Moges, Seifu A. Tilahun, Temesgen Enku, and Enyew Adgo. "Morphological changes of Gumara River channel over 50 years, upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia." Journal of Hydrology 525 (June 2015): 152–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.044.
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Yoon, Sungsuk, and Goytom Afera Gebrekiros. "Tripartite Conflicts Between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Nile River: A Search for Political Avenue." Journal of Humanities and Social sciences 21 12, no. 1 (February 28, 2021): 675–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.22143/hss21.12.1.47.
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A.M.H., Elhag, Gumaa Y.S.A., and Osman E.H. "Monitoring, Predicting and Quantifying Soil Alkalinity, Sodicity and Salinity in Blue Nile State, Sudan, Using Soil Techniques, Remote Sensing and GIS Analysis; Case Study: Blue Nile River." IRA-International Journal of Applied Sciences (ISSN 2455-4499) 11, no. 3 (August 1, 2018): 37. http://dx.doi.org/10.21013/jas.v11.n3.p2.
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<p>This study focused on the assessment of land degradation on a transect of 20 km along the Blue Nile River (10 km at each side of the river) within the Blue Nile state, Blue Nile State, Sudan. Through mapping and monitoring the changes that occurred in the soil properties, due to Water Erosion, Vegetations degradation, mismanagement in addition to the Human activities and Climatic change The study attempted also to update some information in the study area such as chemical properties using different methods of data transformation and analysis such as: Soil analysis technique, GIS and remote sensing analysis. The research was based on the data and information deduced and extracted from soil survey data, soil analysis, and remote sensed data, in addition to fieldwork verification and other sources. The study covered an area about 346483.43 ha. Soil analysis and data compilation from other sources showed that the soil of the study area witnessed remarkable changes during the study Period (1990 – 2015). The degradations affected the Soil and Vegetations covers of the study area in both side around the Blue Nile River. The analysis indicated that soil degradation was taken place in the study area specially the top west and south east parts of the area which was affected by some buckets of salinity, northern part shown moderate level of acidity while the Part from the south East and South west area shown moderate level of Alkalinity. Assessment and evaluation of the soil of the study area in respect to soil texture revealed that 15% of the total area received some Sand deposits in the study area which it considered the beginning or indicator of soil degradation in the south west and northern part of the study area, while the SAR analysis indicated that all the soils of the study area fell within none sodic class. According to framework of the land suitability (FAO, 1976) revealed that the soil of the study area is moderately suitable (S2) for agriculture.</p>
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Hassaballah, Khalid, Yasir A. Mohamed, and Stefan Uhlenbrook. "The long-term trends in hydro-climatology of the Dinder and Rahad basins, Blue Nile, Ethiopia/Sudan." International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology 9, no. 6 (2019): 690. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijhst.2019.10025127.
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Hassaballah, Khalid, Yasir A. Mohamed, and Stefan Uhlenbrook. "The long-term trends in hydro-climatology of the Dinder and Rahad basins, Blue Nile, Ethiopia/Sudan." International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology 9, no. 6 (2019): 690. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijhst.2019.103447.
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Haile, A. T., T. H. M. Rientjes, E. Habib, V. Jetten, and M. Gebremichael. "Rain event properties at the source of the Blue Nile River." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 3 (March 24, 2011): 1023–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1023-2011.
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Abstract. In the present study, spatial and temporal patterns of rain event properties are analysed. These event properties are rain event depth, event duration, mean event rain rate, peak rain rate and the time span between two consecutive rain events which is referred to as inter-event time (IET). In addition, we assessed how rain event properties change when the period over which rainfall data is aggregated changes from 1 to 6 min and when the minimum inter-event time (MIT) changes from 30 min to 8 h. Rainfall data is obtained from a field campaign in two wet seasons of June–August (JJA) of 2007 and 2008 in Gilgel Abbay watershed that is situated at the source basin of the Upper Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. The rainfall data was automatically recorded at eight stations. The results revealed that rain event depth is more related to peak rain rate than to event duration. At the start and towards the end of the wet season, the rain events have larger depth with longer duration and longer IET than those in mid-season. Event rain rate and IET are strongly related to terrain elevation. Sekela which is on a mountain area has the shortest IET while Bahir Dar which is at the south shore of Lake Tana has the longest IET. The period over which rainfall data is aggregated significantly affected the values of rain event properties that are estimated using relatively small value (30 min) of MIT but its effect diminished when the MIT is increased to 8 h. It is shown that increasing the value of MIT has the largest effect on rain event properties of mountain stations that are characterised by high rainfall intermittency.
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Haile, Mesfin Mamo. "Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis: A case study of Rib River, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia." ARRUS Journal of Engineering and Technology 2, no. 2 (February 12, 2022): 46–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.35877/jetech489.
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Hydrological design, planning and design of flood mitigation structures require detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the flood event, i.e. peaks, volumes, occurrence times and duration. In addition to the uncertainty associated with the occurrence in both space and time, these events may often have a correlation of varying strengths. The literature study interestingly reveals that the majority of studies are based on a univariate approach rather than a more realistic approach that recognizes the multivariate nature of the underlying phenomenology. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to revisit the topic of sizing of flood events in terms of their frequency of occurrence using the ‘Copula’ based bivariate approach to analyze the joint distributions of correlated flood variables with a special focus on Ribb sub basin, Upper Blue Nile (Ethiopia) as the case study. The methodology was applied to flood attributes, i.e. flood peaks and volume generation from partial duration series (PDS) by applying run theory. The Joint Cumulative Distribution Function, the Conditional Cumulative Distribution Function and the associated Return Periods can be easily achieved based on the bivariate distribution of the copula and compared to the univariate analysis.