Academic literature on the topic 'Bull market'

The Bear and Bull markets is today frequently used terms amongst practitioners and researchers alike. Despite its lack of a standardised definition it still seemingly means the same thing to the majority of people and the overarching consensus is that a bear market is negative and bull market is positive. Previous research of the bear and bull markets primarily discusses how it affects the individual investor and not the aggregated market movements. The research was based on a study of the Swedish stock market that suggested that the standard deviation is higher during a bear market and the monthly buy and hold return is higher during a bull market. However, with the lack of statistical support from this study, the basis for the research question was based on their findings. The goal was to test whether their claims held, when their methodology was applied to a different sample from the same market. To categorise the market into bear and bull markets we used a 12-month simple moving average of the OMX Stockholm 30 (OMXS30) to define the trend. Every data point, consisting of daily buy and hold returns from the OMXS30, was then measured against the 12-month simple moving average of the market. We used the definition that when the daily buy and hold return exceeded the 12-month SMA, it is a bull market. When the daily buy and hold return is lower than the 12-month SMA, it is a bear market. The results of Levene’s test and a two-sample t-test showed that the bull market exhibited a higher daily buy and hold return and higher standard deviation when compared to the bear market. This conclusion aligns well previous research and confirmed the conclusion of the study upon this research was built.

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Sócio Econômico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Florianópolis, 2013.<br>Made available in DSpace on 2013-12-06T00:13:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 320599.pdf: 867037 bytes, checksum: a5c7fe6c45481ad787cb2ef986671426 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013<br>O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar tendências de alta e de baixa no índice Bovespa através de modelos de mudança de regime markoviano que incorporam dependência de duração. Conforme evidenciado pela literatura,os resultados mostraram um regime de retorno positivo e baixa volatilidade e outro com alta volatilidade e retorno negativo. Nestes modelos a probabilidade de transição não é só função do regime atual como também do número de períodos em que o processo se encontra em determinado estado. A parametrização proposta revelou que a probabilidade de troca de regime diminui com a persistência do mercado de alta e de baixa. A análise das probabilidades suavizadas destaca que as especificações captaram os principais episódios de instabilidade na bolsa brasileira.Por fim, os modelos propostos são usados na construção de uma estratégia de investimento. <br><br>Abstract : This study proposes to identify Bull and Bear Market for the Brazilianstock market using a markov switching model that incorporates durationdependence. Following the existing literature, the model sorts returnsinto a high return stable state and a low return volatile state, whichare labeled as Bull and Bear Market. In these models the transitionprobabilities are functions of both the inferred current state and alsothe number of periods that the process has been in that state. The parameterizationshowed that the probability of switching out of the statesdeclines with duration in that state. The smoothed probabilities highlightedthe major instabilities phases at Brazilian stock market. Finally,the proposed models are used in order to develop an investment strategy.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1998.<br>Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains viii, 69 p.; also contains graphics in color. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 66-68).

Introduction and Aims. The EC is presently in a position of excess food supply and rationalisation has been necessary. Farmers must consider the nature of the demand for specific foods in an effort to secure a share of this market for their output. It is the farmer-producer of beef to whom this study is directed. The research project seeks solutions to some of the problems presently experienced by Scottish beef producers by analysing the market for a system of young suckled bull beef production. The aims of the research are firstly, an assessment of the factors which govern the feasibility of this system in Scotland and, if these are favourable, the formulation of a marketing strategy to aid farmer-producers in its development. Method. The information needed for this analysis was collected by means of a series of six factual and attitudinal market surveys of the participants at each stage in the production and marketing chain for young suckled bull beef, from West Highland crofters producing weaned calves to beef consumers. These surveys are analysed, interpreted and the findings presented. Conclusions. At the rearing and finishing stages any problems were out-weighed by the advantages of more efficient growth and improved carcass quality. But, although abattoirs handling young bulls had experienced no economically significant problems and retailers acknowledged the superiority of young suckled bull beef carcasses, there is a widely-held belief that the eating quality of all bull beef is less acceptable to consumers. A consumer panel test of this belief was invalidated because the beef supplied was not as ordered. There is a need to improve the scope and flow of information on the nature of cattle killed. In the short term at least there is a market for this product. And if young suckled bull beef can be promoted effectively development of this sector will occur. Several areas can be identified which are essential to a marketing strategy for young suckled bull beef producers. It is vital to ensure repeatability and uniformity of breeds, age, weight and post-slaughter treatment of carcasses. A joint venture with some measure of integration is strongly recommended. A scheme of producers guidelines is also recommended. Farmer-producer groups should establish links with an abattoir-wholesaler of beef. A link should also be established with the multiple retail sector. And promotion of the product could be via this sector into a specific market segment and should focus on quality aspects and health and welfare concerns.

My master’s thesis from marketing area is focused on marketing management of Red Bull Company, which is world leading energy drink producer. My work should improve marketing management of the firm and suggest new ways of marketing communication, the way of addressing consumers and non-consumers of Red Bull energy drink. The results of this master’s thesis will be suggested to the management of Red Bull Company for implementation into praxis.

Baltijos šalių akcijų rinkų istorija yra trumpa, tuo tarpu akcijų kainų ciklų nagrinėjimui bei galimam vėlesniam prognozavimui reikalinga ilgesnė duomenų imtis. Dėl šios priežasties šiame darbe bus siekiama išsiaiškinti ar šių šalių akcijų rinkos elgesys yra panašus į Skandinavijos šalių akcijų rinkų pokyčius. Panašumams ar skirtumams atskleisti teorinėje dalyje buvo nagrinėjami akcijų rinkos cikliškumo charakteristikos, o taip pat ciklų atsiradimo ir jų koreliacijos sąlygos. Antrojoje dalyje šalių ekonominės situacijos nagrinėjimui pasirinkti tokie rodikliai kaip: infliacijos ir BVP dinamika. O akcijų ciklai buvo identifikuojami pagal modifikuotą NBER metodą. Darbe buvo iškeltos trys hipotezės, kurios buvo nagrinėjamos tre�����iojoje darbo dalyje. Panašumas buvo nagrinėjamas trimis aspektais, kurie yra iškeltų hipotezių pagrindas: akcijų rinkos indekso charakteristikos, indeksų pokyčių koreliacija, ekonominių sąlygų akcijų kainų indeksų pakilimo metu panašumas. Patvirtintos buvo tik antroji ir iš dalies trečioji hipotezės. Vertinant bendrai tris hipotezes, Skandinavijos šalių patirtis netinka Baltijos šalių akcijų rinkos tendencijoms prognozuoti, nes egzistuoja daug skirtumų.<br>The history of stock markets in Baltic states is short, whereas analysis of stock market cycles requires longer time series data. Therefore, the objective of this thesis is to find out whether the behavior of stock market in above mentioned countries is similar to Scandinavian stock market changes. In theoretical chapter of paper work characteristics and conditions of stock market cycles were examined to determine similarities or differences in analyzed countries. Second chapter studies economic background and identifies stock market cycles using NBER method. Three hypotheses were raised based on three aspects of stock market cycles: stock market cycle characteristics, correlations of stock indices’ changes and economic background in light of stock cycles’ peaks. Only second and third hypotheses were proved. Assessing all three hypotheses Scandinavian stock market history is not suitable to make prognosis for stock markets cycles in Baltic states because of lots of differences.

Dissertação de mestrado em Gestão, apresentada à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra, sob a orientação de António José Marques Mendes.<br>O presente trabalho aborda a problemática do market timing e compara duas técnicas de análise de tendência e pontos de inversão uteis para o Market Timing. Os métodos analisados têm a designação de processo Bry and Boschan e Zig Zag. Este estudo foi feito para o índice S&P 500 no período 2008-2014. Os resultados obtidos para variações de 7% e 12% sugerem que o método Zig Zag é mais adequado, pois a maior parte dos pontos de inversão detetados estão mais ajustados à série temporal analisada.

The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.

Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão<br>O presente trabalho analisa relações entre finanças e macroeconomia, procurando responder a como quebras de estrutura na duração dos mercados bull e bear estão ligadas aos ciclos económicos. Para tal, é revisto o teste de quebras de estrutura proposto por Nicolau (2016) e são introduzidos dois testes alternativos, que através de um estudo de simulação Monte Carlo, evidenciam menos sobre-rejeição para alguns processos geradores de dados, provando ser úteis na obtenção de resultados robustos. Aplicamos os testes a uma base de dados composta por índices bolsistas de 38 mercados desenvolvidos e em emersão, ajustados à capitalização de mercado, construídos pela Morgan Stanley Capital International. Nos resultados obtidos encontramos várias quebras de estrutura que revelam estar ligadas a eventos macroeconómicos, além disso, existe evidência estatística de que decréscimos na duração dos ciclos de mercado bull antecedem o pico dos ciclos económicos.<br>The present work analyses relations between finance and macroeconomics, aiming to answer how structural changes in duration of bull and bear markets are connected with business cycles. In order to do so, we review the structural change test proposed by Nicolau (2016) and introduce two similar alternatives, which through a Monte Carlo simulation study, show less over-rejection for some data generating processes, proving to be useful in obtaining robust results. We apply the tests to a database consisting on adjusted market capitalization stock market indexes of 38 developed and emerging markets, constructed by Morgan Stanley Capital International. In our results we find several structural changes that seem to be linked to macroeconomic events, furthermore, there is statistical evidence that decreases in duration of bull market cycles anticipate the peak of business cycles.<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This thesis in applied statistics and industrial economics examines the correlation between a number of market conditions on the Swedish and Global market and the yield difference between the Swedish stock market and the Global stock market. The report is based on data from the index MSCI Sweden Net Return, MSCI World Net Return and the Volatility index S&amp;P 500. The market conditions that have been examined are Bull markets, Bear markets, periods of high volatility. We also examined how the appreciation of the SEK in comparison to the USD and the yield of the Swedish stock market correlated with the yield difference between the Swedish Stock Market and the Global stock market. The correlation was examined using multiple linear regression. The results indicated a positive correlation between the yield difference between the Swedish stock market and the Global stock market and the yield of the Swedish stock market, the appreciation of the SEK compared to the USD and Bull markets. We found a negative correlation with Bear markets and no correlation at all with the volatility.   The results are in line with what could be expected and give a stronger statistical ground for the idea that the Swedish stock market has larger fluctuations than the Global stock market during large-scale market fluctuations.<br>Detta kandidatexamensarbete inom tillämpad matematik och industriell ekonomi syftar till att undersöka hur avkastningsdifferensen mellan den Svenska och Globala aktiemarknaden korrelerar med ett antal olika marknadsförhållanden. Rapporten är baserad på data från MSCI Sweden Net Return och MSCI World Net Return samt Volatilitetsindex S&amp;P500. De marknadsförhållanden som har undersökts är Bull markets, Bear markets, perioder då det råder hög volatilitet på marknaden. Vi undersökte även avkastningsdifferensens korrelation till kronans värdeförändring gentemot den Amerikanska dollarn och korrelationen till den Svenska aktiemarknadens värdeökning. Korrelationen undersöktes genom att utföra en multipel linjär regression. Resultaten visade på en rådande positiv korrelation mellan utvecklingen på den Svenska aktiemarknaden, prisutvecklingen av den Svenska kronan mot Amerikanska dollarn samt under Bull markets. Vi fann även en negativ korrelation med Bear markets och ingen korrelation till volatiliteten.   Resultaten är i linje med vad som kunde förväntas och ger en starkare statistisk grund till att den Svenska aktiemarknaden har större svängningar än den Globala aktiemarknaden vid stora marknadsfluktuationer.