Academic literature on the topic 'Business environment analysis'

The methodological approach to the integral assessment of business environment security is developed in the article; the blocks of factors of business environment security are identified and the indices which affect the formation of economic security of entrepreneurship are analyzed. The integral indicator for assessing business environment security is based on 6 indicators, which are the most significant elements of the business environment formation: the availability of basic economic freedoms, the favorable organizational conditions for doing business, the state of political and legal system, the level (quality) of life, resource provision and infrastructure development, innovation development. A comparative analysis of the integral indicator of business environment security of Ukraine with the Baltic countries, Black Sea region countries and the Visegrad Group countries is carried out. The article identifies interdependence between the business environment security and the share of unprofitable enterprises. The functional relationship of the business environment security with the number of bankrupt enterprises and the level of enterprises losses is substantiated as well. The model shows that the increase of environmental security leads to the decrease of a number of bankruptcies exponentially. The negative and positive factors which influence the formation of economic security of entrepreneurship are revealed.

Under the background of great changes in China's economic environment, a large number of small and medium-sized family businesses are in urgent need of transformation and upgrading that entering the channel of re-creation. For the family business, the successor signifies the future development direction and growth trend of the business. The inter-generational succession of the family business is a multistage evolution process influenced by many factors. In the specific succession practice of family businesses, the influence of the succession of family businesses is analyzed from the perspective of re-creation in combination with the actual situation. Based on the theory analysis on influencing factors of family business’s succession and the way of the questionnaire and factor analysis measure, the research had found and explained the major influencing factors of Chinese family business's succession, namely, relationship, successor, creator, re-creation, organization, environment. It provided a reference on the inter-generational succession of Chinese family businesses from the perspective of re-creation.

Considering the complexity of power grid environments and the diversity of power communication transmission losses, this study proposes a quantum key distribution (QKD) network structure suitable for power business scenarios. Through simulating the power communication transmission environment, performance indicators of quantum channels and data interaction channels in power QKD systems are tested and evaluated from six aspects, such as distance loss, galloping loss, splice loss, data traffic, encryption algorithm and system stability. In the actual environment, this study combines the production business to build a QKD network suitable for power scenarios, and conducts performance analyses. The experimental results show that power QKD technologies can meet the operation index requirements of power businesses, as well as provide a reference for large-scale applications of the technology.

The development and efficient functioning of entrepreneurship is the basis of a market economy, as well as the key to the country’s innovative socio-economic development and growing competitiveness on an international scale. The formation of a transparent and qualitative business climate is an incentive for the efficient entrepreneurship development. The paper is aimed at identifying structural-institutional transformations in the business environment and their impact on the development of small businesses. The analysis of socio-economic parameters of the business environment is based on the elasticity method and the system approach, which have been tested on the example of cities in the Western region of Ukraine. Outlining the features of setting up the business environment and its functioning has provided the grounds for detecting major problems hampering efficient business development. The comparative analysis has confirmed a close relationship between socio-economic transportation processes and conditions created for businesses. The evaluation of institutional environment has confirmed that cities striving to improve transparency in climate regulation and urban environment management achieve the growing investment activity and positive dynamics of small businesses development. The calculated elasticity coefficients prove that the growing investment activity positively impacts the number of small businesses and the volume of products sold by them. However, the expected growth in employment was not achieved due to the high level of shadow activity on the labor market and migration activity of the population.

Purpose The study aims to identify and examine the construction organisational environments and its dimensions that have an impact on the performance of contracting companies in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The study reports the result of quantitative research that obtained data from 72 construction organisations registered with the South African construction industry development board via a questionnaire survey. Descriptive statistics, non-parametric and exploratory principal component analysis were used to summarise forms of correlations among observed variables and to reduce a large number of observed variables to a smaller number of factors that provide an operational definition for the underlying dimension. Findings This study identified six exogenous and three endogenous environmental factors that have a varying degree of impact on construction organisation performance. Four dimensions of the environment were also examined, and environmental complexity has the highest variance explained which implies that the complexity of the construction business environment significantly influences the performance of construction firms. Research limitations/implications This paper studies the environment of the South African construction industry using cross-sectional data in exploratory research. A confirmatory study should be conducted using a longitudinal panel design with a larger sample in similar future research. Practical implications The study offers practical implications to construction organisation owners operating in the South African construction industry to understand the need to acquire market and environmental data and process them in a way that will reduce its uncertainty when making strategic decisions. Originality/value This study contributes to the current discourse on organisations’ business environments to better understand their influences on organisational performance.

The pawn industry in the United States grew substantially in recent years; however, there is limited research on the regulatory environment for these predominately small businesses. Our study focuses on the readability of state regulations for pawnshops. We select credit unions as a comparison group since they also service non-bank customers. Our analysis reveals that the majority of states’ pawnbroker regulations are at the college reading level while the regulations for credit unions are at the college graduate reading level. There are also geographical differences in the readability of pawnshop regulations with the regulations in the northeast region being easier to read than in the west region. However, there is no evidence that the regulations readability level corresponds to the number of pawnbrokers in a state or to more broad-based measures of state-level business friendliness.

In the last five years, the US has experienced a significant number of unprecedented events, many of which will have long-term impact on its business environment. Given this fact and the rapid pace of change in the world today, there is a new imperative for understanding and managing these complex dynamics and associated emergent risks. This dissertation, therefore, focused on analyzing the current state of the US business environment; the analysis creates a basis for further examination of the various aspects of the studied problems. The author undertook a comprehensive environmental scan, using a broad set of information resources, in order to look at its present status and the factors affecting it as well as the perceived level of risk. During this process, the author also attempted to verify whether the current method of PEST analysis is still a relevant and useful tool given today's complex, intertwined and quickly evolving global business environment. The first chapter is devoted to the theoretical background of information seeking and environmental analysis as well as classifying international business risks. Chapter two takes a broad look at the US macro economy, including the following areas: Political, Legal, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technological. Chapter three is a business application, and the bulk of its content is devoted to the specifics of the current US business environment; the perceived risks affecting it are also investigated. Final conclusions are drawn based on the research conducted.

The examination of the multiple-commitment theory and the threecomponent commitment ·model, two leading approaches in the research of work commitment, lacks empirical evidence outside North America, and especially, the combination of the theory and model is still new. This study, based on a sample of 502 employees in Vietnam, examined the theory and model simultaneously in combination, using the three-component commitment model to measure organizational and occupational commitments. The results evidenced the three-component structures of organizational and occupational commitments, and supported the mediation of commitment components on the effects of commitments'antecedents on work outcomes. Affective and normative organizational· commitment, and normative occupational commitment had negative effects on turnover intention. Organizational commitment and continuance occupational commitment had positive effects on external career success, while only occupational commitment (affective & continuance) had positive effects on internal career success. No commitment component had significant effect on job performance. This study suggests that a mixed approach combining the theory and model is . appropriate in the study of work commitment, and this approach should be further examined especially in other developing and Asian countries. For managers in Vietnam, this study implies that understanding the relationships among variables analyzed in this study, in combination with their experiential knowledge, they can create better solutions to increase and maintain employees' work commitment in order to increase major work outcomes.

The economic development needs of developing countries require capital accumulation, which is no longer an easy task, even for industrialised countries. Although borrowing remains an important alternative, it has proved to be an expensive method in the long run. Consequently, to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), developing countries have been liberalising their economies, which is expected to contribute to job creation and income generation. At the beginning of the 21st century Libya declared its intention to liberalise its economy and to integrate into the global economy in order to achieve comprehensive development. This study investigates and explores the conditions of the Libyan business environment in relation to foreign and joint companies, particularly in the non-oil sectors. A questionnaire survey method was utilised to assemble the primary data. This was conducted with the representatives of both foreign and joint companies in order to establish their perceptions and opinions towards the Libyan business environment across various dimensions. In addition, a structured interview method was used with the Libyan senior officials to investigate the difficulties and challenges facing the General People’s Committees and bodies in improving the business environment. The questionnaire data were analysed using SPSS through descriptive and analytical statistics by employing frequency, factor analysis, chi-square of goodness of fit test and cross-tabulation tools, while interviews were analysed by using coding technique through interpretative analysis. To substantiate the results, the Porter model was utilised supported by a SWOT analysis with the objective of gauging how competitive the Libyan business environment is for attracting foreign direct investment. The study reveals that despite the numerous obstacles and shortcomings associated with the Libyan business environment, the country’s experiment for attracting FDI in the non-oil sectors can be described as successful. It also shows that despite this success, many foreign and joint projects have been cancelled as a result of difficulties associated with the Libyan business environment. The study also revealed that there are many challenges facing Libyan policy environment in order to reform the business environment to make it more attractive for FDI.

Introduction: The South African economy has shown very little economic growth and car sales declined steadily from 1988 till they increased slightly in 1999. 2000 saw the economy recovering from a recession, and motor vehicle sales increasing. In order for the South African motor manufacturing industry to remain viable, the manufacturers, who must operate within the framework of the Motor Industry Development Plan, face increasing international competition as the large motor firms from around the world strive to gain a foothold in Africa in anticipation of an “African Renaissance.” South African manufacturers have to develop appropriate strategies to ensure profitability and survival in the new millennium. This entails a thorough analysis of the changing business environment the industry finds itself trading in.

This thesis attempts to analyze some prominent linkages between trade and the environment. More specifically, the thesis seeks to elucidate the endogenous determination of environmental policies in the context of North-South and North-North relations when pollution generated in one country can cross the border and flow into another country. It also provides a theoretical framework to analyze the political influence of environmental lobbies on environmental policies, environmental damages, and the strategic behavior of domestic firms in making political contributions and investments in environmental R&D. This thesis adopts the political-support approach formalized with the help of the game-theoretic framework of a first-price menu auction formulated by Bernheim and Whinston (1986). In the political process, environmental interest groups that seek to influence environmental and trade policies set by politicians will face other lobby groups. By contrast, domestic firms in imperfectly competitive industries will press for protectionist trade policies and laxer environmental regulations. We find that an equilibrium emission tax depends on the cost and emission per unit of output, the weight that an incumbent government attaches to social welfare, the amount of pollution that countries transfer to each other, and the type of environmentalists. This thesis shows how interactions between different interest groups and their national governments may prevent the adoption of socially optimal levels of environmental policies. Moreover, it shows that environmentalists might be pressing for more stringent environmental policies if they care only about their own local environment and might have common cause with protectionist tendencies if they believe that liberalized trade will result in more pollution. With some exceptions, it is found that the presence of environmental lobbies improves the quality of their local environments. The exceptions arise when environmentalists also care about the global environment and pollution spills over from one country to another. This thesis shows that the presence of environmental lobbies may raise environmental R&D investments in the North, lower the profits of domestic firms, and improve the quality of their home and the world environments by inducing their incumbent government to adopt more stringent environmental policies. The thesis also finds that a more stringent environmental regulation, if properly set, may induce a domestic firm to undertake R&D investments, but it fails to confirm that this will raise the firm's profitability or competitiveness. Indeed, we show that an increase in a pollution tax causes the domestic firm to either cut back its output or raise its R&D expenditure. In either case, the profit of the domestic firm declines.

Outsourcing attracted much attention in 1989 when Kodak outsourced its data center operation to IBM (International Business Machines Corp.). Nowadays, this strategy has become more popular. At the beginning of this century, the ASP (Application Service Provider) model was considered one of the typical solutions of Internet-based IT (Information Technology) outsourcing. Although this model has been transformed and renamed (e.g. SaaS - Software as a Service), the principle concept of providing IT service through the Internet or wide area network is still there. This study attempts to explore the determinants of customer perception of Internet-based IT outsourcing by obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the ASP model. The research dimensions not only include factors affecting users' perception of service quality but also ASP business position (i.e. the firm origin of ASP and its provider type) and services utilized by the customers. Through the study of firm history, two important theoretical themes of this research - path-dependence and Ansoff's product/ market growth matrix - are taken account of in exploring the influence of the determinants. Web-based questionnaire survey research is conducted together with a documentation study to collect data. Targeting the customers of the top 50 ASPs selected by ASPnews.com during the period 2001-2004, the researcher contacted 597 potential respondents, and 196 responses were returned. The valid sample consisted of 175 responses, and 124 of them not only provided full information for satisfaction evaluation but also the information for tracking their ASP vendors' business position. The GLM (General Linear Model) and the Pearson correlation coefficient were the major statistical approaches used to evaluate the survey data for developing a structural model. The research findings indicated that the factors associated with service competitiveness, such as capability and performance, reliability and trustworthiness, affordability, integration and customization, have positive effects on customer perceived satisfaction; whereas lock-in has a negative effect. More specifically, the origin of the ASP firm has a direct effect on capacity and performance, and also directly influences the use of IT adoption services. Based on this finding, a descriptive analysis and qualitative research shows that two mechanisms for path-dependence - existing expertise and perceived expertise - can affect the satisfaction level of capacity and performance of ASP services. On the other hand, provider type has a direct effect on affordability and also directly influences the use of facility supporting services. On this basis, another two mechanisms for path-dependence - transaction cost and standardization - can indirectly impact customer's perception of this business model via affordability. In addition to those major findings, some other determinants (e.g. software applications, brand of applications, and intensity of service used) were also identified in this study. The study result can be used for theoretical understanding about the determinants of ASP customer's perception. It not only indicates a new perspective to enhance the current body of research on this topic, but can also be more broadly applied to any fast-growth firm, rapid-change business, or technology intensive industry. Acknowledgements I would like to sincerely thank the following people for their contribution to this research project. Dr. Scott Koslow, my chief supervisor, for his continued encouragement, patience and guidance to ensure the completion of this project. His speciality in statistics has provided appropriate and valuable guidance in the data analysis for my research. Dr. Steven Lim, my second supervisor, for his advice, coherence, and support over the years. I also appreciate his constructive comments on my drafts and the shaping of my research. Dr. Bob McQueen and Dr. Jim Corner, for their assistance and advice in the early stages of my study. My parents, Yu-Ho and Lee-Chiung Liang, and my brother Ken, my sisters Annie, Eva, and Nancy, my brothers-in-law, J.C. and Chen, and Alice, my sister-in-law, for their emotional support throughout the length of my study. I also thank Bessie, my best friend for her assistance in data collection and her loving support, as well as Ted, Kevin, Mark, Frank, and Shirley, my study mates for their encouragement and friendship. Special thanks goes to Dr. Kuang-Ya Wang, the principal of Yu Da High School of Commerce and Home Economics, Taiwan, and also to the staff over there for their concern and assistance in data collection. Most importantly, my heartfelt appreciation goes to Warren, my husband. I am deeply grateful to him for his understanding, patience, and practical help. Without his enduring support I could not have done this study. Finally, my thanks and gratitude goes to those people who patiently answered my survey questionnaire as their kind assistance made it possible to complete this research.

Calls for the inclusion of sustainable development in the business curriculum have increased significantly in the wake of the financial crisis and increased concerns around climate change. This has led to the appearance of new initiatives and the development of new teaching approaches. This thesis explores business education at the upper secondary school level in Sweden following the inclusion of the concept of sustainable development in the curriculum. Drawing on poststructuralist discourse theory, the overarching purpose is to identify the roles of a responsible business person that are articulated in business education and to discuss how these roles could enable students to address sustainability issues. The thesis consists of four studies, based on textbook analyses, teacher interviews and classroom observations. Three categories of roles have been identified, implying that a business person is expected to either adapt to, add or create ethical values. These three categories are compared with the roles indicated in the environmental discourses constructed by Dryzek and the responsibility regimes developed by Pellizzoni. Drawing on Dryzek’s and Pellizzoni’s reasoning about which qualities are important for addressing sustainability issues, it is concluded that the roles identified in the studies could mean that students are unequipped (the adapting role), ill-equipped (the adding role) or better equipped (the creating role) to address uncertain and complex sustainability issues. The articles include empirical examples that illustrate how and in which situations specific roles are articulated, privileged or taken up. The examples also indicate how the scope for business students’ subjectivities are facilitated or hampered. It is suggested that the illustrative empirical examples could be used for critical reflection in order to enhance students’capabilities of addressing uncertain and complex sustainability issues and to improve educational quality in terms of scope for subjectivity.
I kölvattnet av den finanskris som kulminerade 2008 och växande uppmärksamhet för olika miljö- och hållbarhetsutmaningar, som exempelvis klimatförändringar, har uppmaningar till integrering av ’hållbar utveckling’ i ekonomiutbildningar ökat internationellt. Miljö och hållbarhetsfrågor har sedan tidigare varit framskrivna i gymnasieskolans styrdokument men i samband med den senaste gymnasiereformen 2011 skrevs begreppet hållbar utveckling tydligare in i Företagsekonomiämnets ämnesplan. Denna avhandling undersöker integrering av hållbarhetsfrågor inom ramen för undervisning i företagsekonomi och närliggande ekonomiämnen på gymnasienivå. Utifrån ett poststrukturalistiskt perspektiv är det övergripande syftet att identifiera vilka företagarroller som artikuleras i läromedeloch undervisning, och även att diskutera i vilken utsträckning dessa roller förbereder de studerande, som framtida företagare, att hantera hållbarhetsfrågor. Avhandlingen består av fyra delstudier som baseras på analyser av läroböcker, lärarintervjuer och klassrumsobservationer. Tre kategorier av företagarroller, som rymmer olika förväntningar på en ansvarstagande företagare har identifierats. Dessa olika roller innebär att en företagare förväntas antingen: anpassa sig till etiska värden som uttrycks i lagar och regler, addera etiska värden som efterfrågas av andra, eller skapa etiska värden. Rollerna skiljer sig åt huruvida en företagare: skall hålla egna känslor för hållbarhetsfrågor åt sidan (anpassande rollen), har utrymme för egna känslor (adderande rollen) eller måste involvera egna känslor (skapande rollen), vid fattande av affärsbeslut. Dessa roller jämförs med de företagarroller som impliceras i Dryzeks miljödiskurser och Pellizzonis ansvarsregimer. Utifrån Dryzeks och Pellizzonis argument om vilka kvaliteter som är viktiga för att hantera hållbarhetsfrågor dras slutsatsen att de studerande kan bli: icke rustade (den anpassande rollen), illa rustade (den adderande rollen) eller bättre rustade (den skapande rollen), att hantera osäkra och komplexa hållbarhetsfrågor, beroende på hur hållbarhetsfrågor integreras i företagsekonomiundervisningen. De fyra artiklarna innehåller detaljerade exempel på hur och i vilka situationer specifika företagarroller artikuleras eller privilegieras. Exemplen visar också i vilka situationer utbildningen tilltalar de studerande och potentiellt blivande företagarna som moraliska subjekt och ger utrymme för de studerandes subjektivitet (som inbegriper förnuft och egna känslor).Dessa exempel kan användas av (bl a) lärare som utgångspunkt för kritisk reflektion i syfte att förstärka de studerandes förmågor att som framtida företagare hantera osäkra och komplexa hållbarhetsfrågor, samt för att utveckla utbildningens kvalitet avseende dess subjektifierande funktion.

As world transport has grown in complexity, so has public pressure for safe flight. The scheduled airline industry has a consistently good safety record. Unfortunately, the business jet industry has not kept pace with the airline safety statistics and lags far behind. During safety surveys and reports over the past 5 years there has been increasing comment and concern over the perceived safety standards of business jets operations compared with normal scheduled airline services. The UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has reported that based on flight hours flown, the fatal accident rate for smaller jet aircraft below 15 tonnes was twice that for large passenger aircraft (CAA 2006a). The CAA also identified that the majority of the accidents occur during the approach and landing phase of the flight. There is however, a lack of research concerning business jet operations. Due to the unique and varied style of operations, business jet flights have many factors that differentiate it from normal scheduled airline operations. Business jet accidents have been reported but they have not been further investigated for any overall causes. The study described in this thesis, a Grounded Theory analysis of accident data was conducted to develop a model of the factors that contributed to the accidents. The model that was developed demonstrated that Pilot skills, Command and Crew Resource management are the key central elements, with the ground organisations such as engineering and ground operations personnel as a contributory influence. As piloting skills were determined as a key factor in the accident statistics and the accident model, a simulator trial was also conducted to assess the manual flying skill levels of business jet pilots. The trial was both a challenging manual flying task and a profile that is included as part of the Pilot Skill test prior to the issue of a commercial pilot’s licence. The simulator trial confirmed that although all the pilots were correctly tested and certified commercial pilots, a significant proportion did not fly an accurate airspeed on approach within the CAA examination tolerances. The simulator trial data and the grounded theory model found that there are concerns for the piloting skills of business jet pilots in their ability to fly an accurate airspeed on approach. The results from this investigation yield findings concerning the piloting skill and accuracy of the business jet pilots that had not previously been identified. The results also emphasise the need to include adequate testing and supervision during business jet operations. It is recommended that further research be conducted to evaluate actual piloting skill and accuracy during the licence skill test.

This project presents the cultural significance of establishing and maintaining business relationships with Chinese counterparts. It includes sample training modules to provide intercultural training for all firms engaged in business with China.

In Kyrgyzstan, are 10 399 small businesses and 710 medium-sized enterprises. Most of them are headed by entrepreneurs who, starting from scratch, overcome countless obstacles, as many entrepreneurs do not have the notion and skills in doing business. But, nevertheless, there is a positive tendency in entrepreneurs to get knowledge on the legal conditions of the enterprise, taxation, accounting, analysis of their financial condition, and business planning. All this knowledge is necessary, but they cover the microlevel, while for an adequate, sustainable and profitable development there is an objective need for analyzing the macro environment of the business. In this report, we will consider the relevance of the use of certain marketing tools with which you can identify the threats and opportunities facing domestic business, as well as assess the impact of global factors that predetermine the future development of the business environment. Research in this area is currently being carried out by the Institute of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic within the framework of the Government Development Program "Jany Doordo - kyrk kadam (2018-2023) Kadam 8" Support for Small and Medium Enterprises.

Business environment reform (BER) targets inadequate business regulations. It is intended to remove constraints to business investment, enabling growth and job creation, and create opportunities for international business to contribute to and benefit from this growth. However, there is a lack of detailed knowledge of the impact of BER on gender and inclusion (G&I). While a review of existing literature suggests that in general, there is no direct link between BER and G&I, indirect links are likely through the influence of BER on firm performance. Outcomes will be influenced by the differential ways in which women-led firms experience the business environment when compared to their male counterparts, with disparities based on how they are treated under the law, as well as structural and sociocultural factors. The fact that in many countries, female-led firms are fewer and smaller than those of their male counterparts, and may operate in different sectors, also affects these dynamics. This research offers new insights through an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu (PTSP) or one-stop shop business licensing reform in 2009 on firm performance in Indonesia, and how these impacts vary based on the gender of firm leadership. The results find that on average, firms benefited from improved business performance (sales), as a direct or indirect effect of this reform, as well as an increase in the number of medium and large-scale firms. Outside Jakarta (Bali, Banten, Lampung), women-led firms experienced a small but significant benefit relative to male-led firms, related to both sales and the number of medium and large-scale firms they run. In Jakarta, women-led firms continued to lag behind men and there were no significant effects on employment, and this held across province and gender. These findings are based on an analysis of the PTSP reform using data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES), a survey of small, medium and large firms (i.e. with more than four employees) which took place in Indonesia between 2009 and 2015.

Public investment in different types of tourism, from business to leisure tourism, has differentiated impacts on local economies, environment, people and government revenues. A fully integrated analytical approach such as the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform is required to capture these multi-dimensional impacts. Applying IEEM to public investment in tourism in Costa Rica we find: investing in a higher skilled labor force particularly in traditional tourism-related activities will improve household welfare; similar increases in demand across all types of tourism show that Health tourism generates the greatest impact on household welfare, while Business tourism has the best prospects for reducing unemployment; Business tourism generates the largest increase in government revenues, but also has the largest greenhouse gas emission footprint, and; the whole of economy perspective of IEEM that captures direct, indirect and induced impacts results in a higher Net Present Value estimation of the investment.

For meat and meat products, secondary processes are those that relate to the downstream of the primary chilling of carcasses. Secondary processes include maturation chilling, deboning, portioning, mincing and other operations such as thermal processing (cooking) that create fresh meat, meat preparations and ready-to-eat meat products. This review systematically identified and summarised information relating to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) during the manufacture of secondary processed meatand meat products (SPMMP). Systematic searching of eight literature databases was undertaken and the resultantpapers were appraised for relevance to AMR and SPMMP. Consideration was made that the appraisal scores, undertaken by different reviewers, were consistent. Appraisal reduced the 11,000 initially identified documents to 74, which indicated that literature relating to AMR and SPMMP was not plentiful. A wide range of laboratory methods and breakpoint values (i.e. the concentration of antimicrobial used to assess sensitivity, tolerance or resistance) were used for the isolation of AMR bacteria.The identified papers provided evidence that AMR bacteria could be routinely isolated from SPMMP. There was no evidence that either confirmed or refuted that genetic materials capable of increasing AMR in non-AMR bacteria were present unprotected (i.e. outside of a cell or a capsid) in SPMMP. Statistical analyses were not straightforward because different authors used different laboratory methodologies.However, analyses using antibiotic organised into broadly-related groups indicated that Enterobacteriaceaeresistant to third generation cephalosporins might be an area of upcoming concern in SPMMP. The effective treatment of patients infected with Enterobacteriaceaeresistant to cephalosporins are a known clinical issue. No AMR associations with geography were observed and most of the publications identified tended to be from Europe and the far east.AMR Listeria monocytogenes and lactic acid bacteria could be tolerant to cleaning and disinfection in secondary processing environments. The basis of the tolerance could be genetic (e.g. efflux pumps) or environmental (e.g. biofilm growth). Persistent, plant resident, AMR L. monocytogenes were shown by one study to be the source of final product contamination. 4 AMR genes can be present in bacterial cultures used for the manufacture of fermented SPMMP. Furthermore, there was broad evidence that AMR loci could be transferred during meat fermentation, with refrigeration temperatures curtailing transfer rates. Given the potential for AMR transfer, it may be prudent to advise food business operators (FBOs) to use fermentation starter cultures that are AMR-free or not contained within easily mobilisable genetic elements. Thermal processing was seen to be the only secondary processing stage that served as a critical control point for numbers of AMR bacteria. There were significant linkages between some AMR genes in Salmonella. Quaternary ammonium compound (QAC) resistance genes were associated with copper, tetracycline and sulphonamide resistance by virtue of co-location on the same plasmid. No evidence was found that either supported or refuted that there was any association between AMR genes and genes that encoded an altered stress response or enhanced the survival of AMR bacteria exposed to harmful environmental conditions.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.