Academic literature on the topic 'Buying behavior'

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Journal articles on the topic "Buying behavior"

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Khan, Hamayun. "Buying Behavior of Online Consumers During COVID-19 – Buying Behavior, Payment Mode, and Critical Factors Affecting Consumers Buying Behavior During the Pandemic." Journal of Management and Training for Industries 8, no. 2 (October 7, 2021): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.12792/jmti.8.2.1.

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Shoham, Aviv, and Maja Makovec Brenčič. "Compulsive buying behavior." Journal of Consumer Marketing 20, no. 2 (April 1, 2003): 127–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/07363760310464596.

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Consumer compulsive buying is an important area of inquiry in consumer behavior research. The importance of studying compulsive buying, stems, in part, from its nature as a negative aspect of consumer behavior. Specifically, exploring negative consumption phenomena could provide modified or new perspectives for the study of positive consumption behaviors. Moreover, research on negative facets of consumption is useful because it can potentially contribute to society’s wellbeing, an important criterion for usefulness of any research. This paper builds on earlier papers to propose a model of compulsivity antecedents. Gender, consumers’ tendency to make unplanned purchases, and their tendency to buy products not on shopping lists, serve to predict compulsive tendencies in a sample of Israeli consumers. The findings suggest that these antecedents affect compulsive tendencies.
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M., Lokesh. "Impulsive Buying Behavior on Online Shopping." International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation 24, no. 5 (April 20, 2020): 4024–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.37200/ijpr/v24i5/pr2020112.

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D. Muthukrishnaveni, D. Muthukrishnaveni, and Dr D. Muruganandam Dr. D. Muruganandam. "Consumer Buying Behavior Towards Consumer Durables." Global Journal For Research Analysis 3, no. 2 (June 15, 2012): 124–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/22778160/february2014/39.

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Purnama Putri, Viajeng. "THE ANALYSIS OF HABITUAL BUYING BEHAVIOUR." Magisma: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis 8, no. 2 (August 10, 2020): 98–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.35829/magisma.v8i2.96.

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This study is to test the effect of information and brand liking support for habitual buying behavior. This research sample of 100 respondents, taken based on Purposive Sampling .The data analysis uses PLS software. This path analysis technique will be used in testing the amount of contribution shown by the path coefficient on each path diagram of the causal relationship between variables X1, X2, on Y. Information support have a positive and significant effect on habitual buying behaviour Brand liking negative effect on habitual buying behavior and information is able to mediate the effect between brand liking on habitual buying behaviour. information and brand liking had positively and significantly influenced the consumer’ responses to habitual buying behavior. The findings of this study contribute to the theory of habitual buying behaviour, namely information and important factors in realizing habitul buying behaviour.
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Pawłowski, Mieczysław, and Zbigniew Pastuszak. "B2B Customers Buying Behavior." International Journal of Synergy and Research 5 (May 16, 2017): 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/ijsr.2016.5.0.19.

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Li, Yalin. "Impact of Impulsive Buying Behavior on Postimpulsive Buying Satisfaction." Social Behavior and Personality: an international journal 43, no. 2 (March 21, 2015): 339–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.2224/sbp.2015.43.2.339.

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I investigated how impulsive buying behavior affects postimpulsive buying satisfaction through the mediator of mixed emotion response and the moderator product type. I collected data using the survey method and used independent samples t tests, two-way analyses of variance, and linear regression to analyze the 243 valid questionnaires. The results showed that impulsive buying behavior has a direct effect on mixed emotion response and affects the consumers' postimpulsive buying satisfaction through mixed emotion response. Moreover, the product type has regulatory effects. Research limitations and implications for theory and management are discussed.
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Suci, Afred. "Faktor-Faktor Prediktor Perilaku Pembelian Emas di Pekanbaru." Jurnal Daya Saing 2, no. 1 (February 15, 2016): 55–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.35446/dayasaing.v2i1.45.

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Abstract: The present research was conducted at Plaza Sukaramai Pekanbaru, aGoldSalesCenter in Pekanbaru. The study needs to find out the effect of product attribute, price and culture on the buying behaviors of the Pekanbaru consumers. The sample consisted of 160 buyers who were selected using the combination of cluster and purposive sampling technique. The variables are the product attribute, prices and culture as the independent variables, and the buying behavior as the dependent one. The data were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The study reveals that product attribute has a positive and significant effect on the buying behavior. The price has a positive and significant effect on the buying behavior. Culture has a positive but insignificant effect on buying behavior. Keywords: Product Attribute, Price, Culture and Buying Behavior
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Denia, Riska, Corry Yohana, and Rahmi Rahmi. "Pengaruh Sales Promotion dan Hedonic Shopping terhadap Impulse Buying Behavior melalui Positive Emotion pada Pengguna E-Commerce di Jabodetabek." Digital Business Journal 1, no. 2 (January 9, 2023): 99. http://dx.doi.org/10.31000/digibis.v2i1.7857.

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impulse buying behavior pada pengguna salah satu e-commerce Shopee dengan menggunakan variabel sales promotion, hedonic shopping, dan positive emotion. Metode pengumpulan data menggunakan metode survey berupa kuesioner yang disebarkan kepada 200 responden. Kriteria responden dalam penelitian yaitu responden berdomisili di wilayah Jabodetabek, berusia minimal 17 tahun, mempunyai akun Shopee dan merupakan pengguna Shopee, dan responden sudah pernah melakukan pembelian di Shopee minimal dua kali dalam kurun waktu enam bulan terakhir. Data diolah dengan menggunakan teknik analisis SEM yang terdapat dalam perangkat AMOS dan SPSS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sales promotion berpengaruh terhadap positive emotion, sales promotion berpengaruh terhadap impulse buying behavior, hedonic shopping berpengaruh terhadap positive emotion, hedonic shopping berpengaruh terhadap impulse buying behavior, positive emotion berpengaruh terhadap impulse buying behavior, sales promotion berpengaruh signifikan terhadap impulse buying behaviour melalui positive emotion, dan hedonic shopping berpengaruh signifikan terhadap impulse buying behaviour melalui positive emotion.
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Kumar, Surender, and Vikas Thakran. "Consumer Buying Behavior in Rural Areas of Haryana." Paripex - Indian Journal Of Research 3, no. 3 (January 15, 2012): 72–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/22501991/mar2014/82.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Buying behavior"

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Helmersson, Filip, and Amanda Svensson. "What if ethical buying behavior leads to boycotts? : The buying behavior of Generation Z." Thesis, Högskolan Kristianstad, Sektionen för hälsa och samhälle, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hkr:diva-15760.

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The care for the environment has been a hot topic during the last fifteen years. Ecological and Fairtrade products made from sustainable materials and methods can be found in almost every store. It seems like awareness regarding our environmental impact has increased and therefore changed our purchase behavior. The awareness has also created pressure on the companies to behave in an ethical manner, if the consumers feel that their ethical needs are not acknowledged, they will tend to stop purchasing products from that company. In this new aware society there is a new player that in a few years will make up the new buying force. Generation Z is individuals born after 1995 and is expected to bring new demands to the market. The purpose of this thesis is to study if ethical products and ethical consumption have an effect on the buying behavior of Generation Z. To better understand if the ethical awareness affect the purchase behavior of Generation Z and if they are willing to boycott companies that misbehaves, theory within the fields of CSR, consumer behavior and ethical consumption has been collected to form questions for a survey. The findings show that the ethical awareness do not affect the purchase behavior of Generation Z, however there is discovered attributes such as ethical profile that affect the frequency of purchases. The findings also show that Generation Z will actively boycott a company if that company misbehaves.
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Hanley, Alice Marie 1960. "An exploration into compulsive buying behavior." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/277234.

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This study was designed to explore the nature of compulsive buying behavior with respect to self esteem and money attitude variables. Conjointly, a newly developed screening device, the Compulsive Buying Scale, was used to test its ability to discern compulsive buying tendencies amongst consumers. Comparison was made with participating members of intact compulsive buying help groups and "normal" consumers. Compulsive buyers were found to significantly differ from normal consumers on variables tested. Compulsive buyers were found to have lower self esteem with money attitudes reflecting obsession with money and its perceived power and prestige. Likewise, compulsive buyers differed significantly on the Compulsive Buying Scale adding support to the validity of the scale.
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Shum, Yiu-cheung Paul. "Property buying behaviour in Shenzhen." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2002. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B31969203.

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Matuschak, Alina. "Mechanisms of influence on consumer buying behavior." Thesis, Київський національний університет технологій та дизайну, 2019. https://er.knutd.edu.ua/handle/123456789/13091.

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Klintebjer, Brecelj Emilia. "Ecolabels and Swedish Consumers’ Green Buying Behavior : A Quantitative Study of Factors Influencing Green Buying Behavior Towards Ecolabelled Food." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik, konst och samhälle, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-85537.

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The steadily increased environmental concerns have become exceedingly palpable over time, not at least in consumers’ way of demanding greener products, or companies’ ways of incorporating green marketing strategies. A common tool for companies producing environmentally friendly food is ecolabelling. Foods with ecolabels on them enable consumers to know that this certain product indicates a good environmental choice. There are various factors that influence consumers’ buying behavior towards it. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether knowledge, attitude and subjective norms have any relationship with Swedish consumers’ green buying behavior. A theoretical framework consisting of literature-identified constructs was developed. Using a questionnaire, a sample size of 158 was realized which was statistically analyzed. Findings indicated that there is a positive relationship between buying behavior and knowledge, attitude and subjective norms. It further revealed that the buying behavior towards ecolabelled food was not that common among the respondents. Hence, the study suggests that despite the positive attitude and sufficient amount of knowledge, consumers are still not that keen about buying ecolabelled food.
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Shum, Yiu-cheung Paul, and 沈耀祥. "Property buying behaviour in Shenzhen." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2002. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31969203.

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Chan, Chi Hang. "The buying behaviour of a shoes store." access abstract and table of contents access full-text, 2006. http://libweb.cityu.edu.hk/cgi-bin/ezdb/dissert.pl?msc-meem-b21417532a.pdf.

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Thesis (M.Sc.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2006.
Title from title screen (viewed on Oct. 5, 2006) "Submitted to Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Engineering Management in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Science in enterprise technology and management." Includes bibliographical references.
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Wang, Dan, and Liuzi Yang. "Customer Buying Behavior : - Online shopping towards electronic product." Thesis, Umeå University, Umeå School of Business, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-35154.

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ABSTRACT

Online shopping in EU has been shown to a good potential market. The electronic equipment takes a high percent of the individuals shopping. Compared with other goods, online shopping of electronic goods adds great convenience to the life of the people. Buying electronic gadgets online gives customers an opportunity to find a great variety of product online, and customers can review a wide selection of products and find special offers and discount with the best deals online. In the coming years, the development of online retailers is improving and promises a bright future. However, the tangible and intangible problems of electronic product online shopping still exist and the online store retailers lack the customer knowledge in some extent. Therefore, our intention is to explore customer behavior when purchasing electronic products through investigating the factors that can affect online shoppers‟ attitudes, intention and actual buying behavior. Furthermore, through the findings of our research, we offered the online retailers some suggestions to improve their sales and attract more customers.

Our research was conducted at Umeå University, the participants are students who come from four different departments. We categorized the important influencing factors into customer-oriented and technology-oriented factors. We utilized quantitative method in the term of questionnaire to exam how the respondents think about these factors, and we figured out the relationship between the factors and the consumers‟ attitudes and online buying intention for electronic product.

Our final findings show that only the experienced shoppers‟ attitudes highly affect their buying intention. Transaction security and product quality as the most important elements of electronic product online shopping in the customer-oriented factors are voted by the respondents; while in the technology- oriented factors, easy to navigate and useful web content are the most important issues which drawn more customers‟ attention. In addition, we suggested that the online retailers should guarantee a safe and accurate transaction process, moreover, make more efforts to web design and enhance the return and refund after-sales service. Our study is expected to contribute the e-commerce, especially focused on the electronic product field, the further research can take our research as a basic and go deeper to investigate.

 

Key words: online shopping, electronic product, customer buying behavior, factors

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Modin, Zebastian, and Quinton Smith. "Impulsive buying behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekonomi, geografi, juridik och turism, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-39515.

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Srungaram, Narsimha Vamshi Krishna. "Assessing Youth’s Buying Behaviour towards Sports Shoes." Thesis, Halmstad University, School of Business and Engineering (SET), 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-1423.

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The paper focuses on attitudes and behavior on the concept of the youth’s buying behavior towards branded sports shoes, different consumers have got different decision making process. The buyer’s ultimate goal is to buy the product of qualitative, quantitative with low/best affordable price. In order to identify different kinds of consumer’s behavior towards buying of different branded shoes and Nike sports shoe. I have carried out buying behavior of youth and different kind of consumer behavior models, literature and theory of consumer behavior; finally, I analyzed and concluded with research based on questionnaire of Nike shoes and case studies of Nike sports shoes at Halmstad University.

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Books on the topic "Buying behavior"

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Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. 3rd ed. London: Prentice-Hall International, 1996.

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Solomon, Michael R. Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Prentice Hall, 2011.

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Solomon, Michael R. Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1992.

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Solomon, Michael R. Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. 2nd ed. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1994.

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Deborah, Salmond, and Marketing Science Institute, eds. Business buying behavior: A conference summary. Cambridge, MA: Marketing Science Institute, 1988.

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Consumer behavior: Buying, selling, and being. 7th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2006.

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Solomon, Michael R. Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. 8th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2008.

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Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. 4th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Prentice Hall International, 1999.

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Solomon, Michael R. Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. 2nd ed. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1994.

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Solomon, Michael R. Consumer behavior: Buying, having, and being. 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Prentice Hall, 2011.

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Book chapters on the topic "Buying behavior"

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Fließ, Sabine, Wesley Johnston, and Christina Sichtmann. "Business Buying Behavior." In Springer Texts in Business and Economics, 171–226. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12463-6_4.

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Saini, Ishpreet Kaur. "Consumer Buying Behavior." In Marketing Analytics, 103–23. New York: Apple Academic Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781003300632-6.

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Kar, Sujita Kumar, Aditya Agrawal, and Nitika Singh. "Disaster and Consumption Behavior." In Panic Buying and Environmental Disasters, 97–113. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10278-3_6.

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Ben Guirat, Rafika. "The Gender Approach to Understanding Time-Saving Durables Buying." In Global Consumer Behavior, 85–108. Newport Beach, CA USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118614877.ch5.

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Dovlatova, Khatira J. "Z-Preferences in Consumer Buying Behavior." In Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, 211–17. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25252-5_31.

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Dileep, M. R., and Francesca Pagliara. "Transportation and Tourist Buying Behavior Modeling." In Transportation Systems for Tourism, 289–316. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-22127-9_15.

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Kumar, Satinder, Anisha Puri, Supreet Kaur, and Meenal Sharma Jagtap. "Theorizing on religiosity and frugal buying behavior." In Religion and Consumer Behaviour, 48–73. London: Routledge, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003288558-4.

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Evanschitzky, Heiner, Neeru Malhotra, Florian v. Wangenheim, and Katherine N. Lemon. "Antecedents of Peripheral Services Cross-Buying Behavior." In Rediscovering the Essentiality of Marketing, 757. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29877-1_143.

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Rese, Mario, and Kira Maiwald. "Organizational Buying Behavior in Case of IPS2." In Functional Thinking for Value Creation, 338–43. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19689-8_59.

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Schill, Ronald L. "Segmenting Supply Markets in Industrial Buying Behavior." In Developments in Marketing Science: Proceedings of the Academy of Marketing Science, 201–6. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16934-7_48.

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Conference papers on the topic "Buying behavior"

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Luo, Sheng, Bin Gu, Xingbiao Wang, and Zhaoquan Zhou. "Online Compulsive Buying Behavior." In the 2018 International Conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3230348.3230397.

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"Badminton Equipment Buying Behavior." In May 7-9, 2018 Dubai(UAE). Universal Researchers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.17758/uruae1.uh0518212.

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Swain, Anjan Kumar, and Ram Kumar Dhurkari. "Shopping Goods and Consumer Buying Behavior." In the 2018 International Conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3232174.3232179.

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Dunnan, Liu, Khalid Jamil, Usama Abrar, Sadaqat Ali, Fazal Hussain Awan, and Shafaat Ali. "Digital Generators and Consumers Buying Behavior." In 2020 3rd International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies (iCoMET). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icomet48670.2020.9073931.

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Qingyang, Liu, Xie Yuxuan, and Chang Sijia. "Y-Generation Digital Natives' Impulsive Buying Behavior." In 2018 3rd Technology Innovation Management and Engineering Science International Conference (TIMES-iCON). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/times-icon.2018.8621840.

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Sutrisno, Ferdinandus Yohanes Nugraha, and Putu Anom Mahadwartha. "Ambiguity and inconsistency of investor buying behavior." In Proceedings of the 16th International Symposium on Management (INSYMA 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/insyma-19.2019.11.

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Sharma, Anjali, Aradhana Pratap, Kishan Vyas, and Sashikala Mishra. "Machine Learning Approach: Consumer Buying Behavior Analysis." In 2022 IEEE Pune Section International Conference (PuneCon). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/punecon55413.2022.10014928.

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Putri, Yulia Hamdaini, Hera Febria Mavilinda, and Islahuddin Daud. "Trust as a Moderator in Buying Behavior." In 7th Sriwijaya Economics, Accounting, and Business Conference (SEABC 2021). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.220304.026.

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Dwita, Vidyarini, and Retsi. "The Influence Factors of Impulse Buying Online Behavior." In Proceedings of the Third Padang International Conference On Economics Education, Economics, Business and Management, Accounting and Entrepreneurship (PICEEBA 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/piceeba-19.2019.79.

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Rybansky, Rudolf. "THE INFLUENCE OF MEDIA ON CONSUMER BUYING BEHAVIOR." In SGEM 2014 Scientific SubConference on PSYCHOLOGY AND PSYCHIATRY, SOCIOLOGY AND HEALTHCARE, EDUCATION. Stef92 Technology, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2014/b12/s2.128.

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Reports on the topic "Buying behavior"

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Martinez-Novoa, Lorraine M., and Nancy Hodges. Beyond Shopaholism: A Socio-Cultural Examination of Compulsive Clothing Buying Behavior. Ames: Iowa State University, Digital Repository, November 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.31274/itaa_proceedings-180814-1412.

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Cameron, Bruce, and Abdullahil Kafi. Investigating Consumers� Online Clothing Buying Behavior Through the Lens of Extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and the Use of Technology. Ames (Iowa): Iowa State University. Library, January 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.31274/itaa.8830.

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Monetary Policy Report - January 2022. Banco de la República, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1-2022.

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Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.
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