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Journal articles on the topic 'Calcolo delle probabilità'
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1
Colombo, Camilla, and Mirko Diamanti. "Il vaccino contro il vaiolo: la querelle Bernoulli-d’Alembert e il calcolo della probabilità." Lettera Matematica Pristem 91, no. 1 (November 2014): 27–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03356671.
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Belcastro, A., G. Fenaroli, and A. C. Garibaldi. "Considerazioni di Giovanni Rizzetti sul calcolo delle probabilità e sul teorema di Jakob Bernoulli." Historia Mathematica 21, no. 4 (November 1994): 420–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/hmat.1994.1032.
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Paola, Domingo, Riccardo Franchi, and Lorenzo Ravera. "Storia di una ricerca." Didattica della matematica. Dalla ricerca alle pratiche d’aula, no. 12 (November 21, 2022): 117–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.33683/ddm.22.12.6.
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L’attività didattica descritta ha avuto origine da un classico problema di calcolo combinatorio e probabilità che si sono posti due studenti di una quinta liceo scientifico, che sono anche due degli autori di questo articolo. Si descrivono i primi tentativi di risoluzione, l’uso della simulazione al computer per cercare di ottenere informazioni sulla soluzione, due diversi approcci per la ricerca di regolarità che aiutassero a risolvere il problema, la ricerca di conoscenze matematiche che aiutassero a dare un senso ai risultati delle simulazioni, il tentativo di spiegare alle compagne e ai compagni tutto il lungo e articolato processo di approccio al problema, che si configura come una vera e propria attività di ricerca.
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Pasour, Ernest C., Wilhelmus L. Nieuwoudt, and Dana L. Hoag. "Passive-use Value, Contingent Valuation, and Public Policy." Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice 11, no. 2 (October 1, 1993): 77–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1332/251569298x15668907539662.
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Abstract Si esaminano i problemi derivanti dall’utilizzazione di stime di valutazione contingente dei valori di uso passivo nella politica ambientale.Il dibattito sul calcolo economico ha dimostrato che questi prezzi artificiali hanno poche probabilità di mantenere qualsiasi relazione con la capacità contributiva. E, in assenza di una valutazione di mercato, si dimostra che le valutazioni individuali sono probabilmente inaffidabili.Inoltre, anche se i problemi di affidabilità potessero essere superati, l’utilizzo di tali stime in tema di politiche pubbliche incontrerebbe notevoli problemi di applicazione pratica.Pertanto, anche in situazioni in cui i valori di uso passivo sono presumibilmente molto importanti, come per i pinguini in Antartide, i costi d’uso delle tecniche di valutazioni contingente possono superare i benefici a motivo degli elevati costi di transazione e di problemi burocratici.
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Pontorno, Mariagrazia. "Petali a corona, donne al bagno e città celesti. Il Codice Voynich tra pensiero magico e machine learning." DigItalia 18, no. 2 (December 2023): 68–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.36181/digitalia-00074.
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Il manoscritto Voynich è il più misterioso ed esoterico codice al mondo. Si tratta di un piccolo manoscritto che l’analisi al carbonio-14 data al XV secolo. Ciò che lo ha trasformato in testo di culto è senz’altro la lingua usata, sconosciuta e in tutta probabilità cifrata. Nel 2020 ho realizzato un’opera intitolata Super Hu.Fo* Voynich che prevede la traduzione arbitraria di una parte di codice che serve ad addestrare una rete neurale, e la successiva forzatura del resto del manoscritto attraverso il machine learning e l’intelligenza artificiale. Fornendo alla macchina la soluzione da trovare, e quindi falsificando in partenza e in maniera voluta l’esito del calcolo. La ricerca artistica culmina in un video che vede protagonista una bambina, simbolo del pensiero magico-irrazionale, connesso al lato creativo e all’intuizione.
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Biorcio, Roberto, and Paolo Natale. "LA MOBILITÀ ELETTORALE DEGLI ANNI OTTANTA." Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica 19, no. 3 (December 1989): 385–430. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0048840200008649.
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IntroduzioneLo studio della mobilità elettorale si ricollega per diversi aspetti al dibattito sulle tendenze generali del mercato elettorale in Italia e alla problematica legata ai tipi di voto. Lo studio delle forme che può assumere la mobilità elettorale costituisce però, a nostro avviso, un tema dotato comunque di una sua autonoma specificità. Le forme che assume il passaggio da una scelta di voto ad un'altra dipendono sia dalle modifiche di posizionamento dei partiti nell'ambito della competizione elettorale, sia dalle modalità secondo cui i cittadini-elettori si rapportano ad essi e, più in generale, vivono il proprio rapporto con la sfera politica e le istituzioni.Si possono individuare nella scelta dell'elettore diverse componenti analitiche (cfr. Parisi e Pasquino 1977; Pizzorno 1983 e 1986, Mannheimer e Sani 1987), riconducibili, a nostro avviso, ad alcune peculiari logiche motivazionali. Si può cogliere anzitutto unalogica dell'identificazione,secondo cui l'elettore esprime adesione e solidarietà rispetto a qualche tipo di identità collettiva che ritiene rappresentata in una delle proposte di voto in competizione. Le identità collettive che costituiscono il referente necessario per questo tipo di logica motivazionale possono essere già presenti nella società — e semplicemente trascritte o trascrivibili in una delle possibili opzioni di voto — oppure essere costituite dal «discorso identificante» dei politici (Pizzorno 1983). Oppure ancora essere una combinazione di entrambe queste possibilità. Si può poi riconoscere nell'elettore l'esistenza di unalogica dell'utilità(o della razionalità strumentale rispetto allo scopo), quando il voto appare finalizzato a favorire (oppure ad ostacolare) tendenze politiche e/o provvedimenti specifici, in base ad un proprio calcolo degli interessi. Insieme a queste due, si può considerare una terza componente analitica nel comportamento elettorale — definibile comelogica della protesta— che esprime motivazioni prevalentemente «in negativo» rispetto al voto o rispetto al tradizionale sistema dei partiti; questa logica emerge quando i partiti esistenti non riescono a suscitare sufficiente identificazione nell'elettore, né a rappresentarne le domande sociali. La logica della protesta si può esprimere non solo con l'astensionismo (attivo o passivo), ma anche con il voto per alcuni dei «nuovi partiti» formatisi negli anni settanta e ottanta come espressione di diverse forme di protesta politica o sociale.È evidente che queste diverse logiche motivazionali possono coesistere nello stesso atto di scelta, con un peso che può variare in base alle caratteristiche dell'elettore, alla congiuntura politico-sociale e al tipo di elezione. Quello che interessa al nostro studio è la relazione fra queste logiche di voto ed i processi di mobilità elettorale: come il peso specifico delle diverse logiche motivazionali può fare variare siale probabilitàdi mutamento delle precedenti scelte di voto, siale formeed ilsensoche questo mutamento può assumere.La logica della identificazione — declinata nelle forme più diverse — costituisce ovviamente la base della fedeltà elettorale di partito o, almeno, di «area politica». Per gli elettori che nel voto esprimono soprattutto una esigenza di identificazione, la probabilità di mutamenti è ridotta, e l'abbandono delle precedenti scelte assume un carattere «traumatico», che si può leggere come segno di un generale processo di ri-orientamento politico-esistenziale. Il passaggio diretto ed immediato da una identificazione ad un'altra è un evento che si verifica raramente. Gli elettori che scelgono di non votare più per un partito in cui si erano identificati sperimentano una fase di relativa incertezza, nella quale possono acquistare maggior peso, almeno transitoriamente, le logiche della protesta o quelle del calcolo delle utilità.La logica della utilità si esprime in un «calcolo dei vantaggi» che si può riferire tanto a interessi individuali e particolaristici (voto clientelare), quanto a quelli di gruppo o di categoria, fino ad assumere come riferimento interessi più generali (voto di opinione). Il calcolo dei vantaggi di ogni scelta di voto è funzione delle caratteristiche specifiche e congiunturali delle diverse scadenze elettorali. Ci si può aspettare che quanto più pesa, nella scelta del singolo elettore, la logica della utilità, tanto più sono probabili, almeno in linea di principio, i cambiamenti delle opzioni di voto.Anche la logica della protesta, se non è accompagnata da forte identificazione in un partito vissuto come rappresentante significativo della protesta sociale, fornisce un notevole contributo alla instabilità elettorale: in questo caso è l'atto stesso di abbandono delle precedenti scelte partitiche che diviene il veicolo più importante per l'espressione del risentimento dell'elettore.Si è rivolta l'attenzione a diversi tipi di mutamento nel comportamento elettorale, analizzando in particolare:1)i cambiamenti di voto all'interno del gruppo dei 7-8 partiti tradizionalmente presenti — nel dopoguerra — nelle competizioni elettorali: la mobilità in questo caso può essere interpretata come l'esito di un giudizio razionale sugli effetti dell'opzione elettorale sul quadro politico, o su una serie di politiche specifiche;2)i cambiamenti di voto da uno dei partiti tradizionali alla esplorazione di nuove possibilità di espressione elettorale — nella scelta di votare, ad esempio, per uno dei partiti emersi negli anni settanta ed ottanta, o per qualcuna delle liste che si caratterizzano su specificheissues(pensioni, ecologia, identità regionali, ecc.);3)il cambiamento dal voto al non voto, che può essere letto come diminuzione del livello di identificazione (visto dal lato dell'elettore) o nella capacità di mobilitazione (visto dal lato del partito) di una determinata opzione partitica;4)il ritorno dal non voto (non partecipazione alla votazione o non espressione di voto valido) al voto per una delle liste presenti nella competizione elettorale, che può dipendere dalla accresciuta capacità di suscitare mobilitazione ed identificazione da parte di una delle forze politiche presenti, oppure dalla particolare rilevanza soggettivamente attribuita ad una specifica tornata elettorale.Lo studio empirico delle forme di mobilità elettorale presenta — come è noto — particolari difficoltà, sia perché ciascuna di esse coinvolge quote limitate del corpo elettorale sia, più in generale, per l'ovvio motivo che non sono disponibili registrazioni — a livello individuale — delle scelte di voto e delle loro variazioni fra una elezione e l'altra. A causa di tali difficoltà e per ovviare ai problemi specifici di ciascuna delle tecniche di analisi, nel nostro studio sulla mobilità elettorale 1983-87 abbiamo fatto riferimento a risultati di ricerche realizzate con diversi metodi: analisi di dati raccolti tramitesurvey,analisi di dati elettorali aggregati a vari livelli, stime dei flussi elettorali in alcune città e stime di flussi a livello nazionale basate sui dati rilevati in un insieme di sezioni-campione. E nostra opinione che sia legittimo e necessario utilizzare nella ricerca i diversi metodi a disposizione, con la consapevolezza dei vantaggi e dei problemi metodologici che ciascuno di essi pone: soltanto l'attenta comparazione dei risultati ottenuti da diverse fonti può convalidare o, nel caso, porre seri interrogativi sulle ipotesi sostantive via via formulate. In questa sede il nostro interesse è rivolto ai risultati ottenuti con le diverse metodologie, più che alla discussione delle metodologie stesse, per la quale rimandiamo ad altre sedi.
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Bru, Bernard. "Lagrange e il Calcolo delle Probabilitè." Lettera Matematica Pristem 88, no. 1-2 (March 2014): 70–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03356646.
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Zhang, Yi, and Stéphane Commend. "Calculs probabilistes des déplacements dus à la réalisation de tunnels à l’aide d’un modèle aux éléments finis." Revue Française de Géotechnique, no. 167 (2021): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/geotech/2021018.
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L’estimation des déplacements dus à la réalisation de tunnels est un sujet important pour les projets des travaux souterrains en sites urbains. Ces déplacements, plus particulièrement les tassements et gonflements, sont souvent l’origine d’endommagements pour les constructions avoisinantes et les ouvrages en cours de construction. Cet article présente le cadre d’une approche probabiliste à l’aide d’un modèle aux éléments finis permettant d’estimer ces déplacements. Cette approche permet de prendre en compte les incertitudes liées aux problèmes géotechniques (manque de données d’entrée, variabilité spatiale des sols, etc.). Une méthode pour la vérification probabiliste des déplacements est tout d’abord définie à l’aide du calcul de la probabilité de défaillance Pf (ou de l’indice de fiabilité β) en fonction des niveaux cibles de sécurité ou performance. Elle est ensuite appliquée à un tunnel réalisé en méthode conventionnelle grâce au couplage des outils ZSOIL et UQLab. Les évaluations de fiabilité (probabilité de défaillance et indice de fiabilité) de la fonction de sécurité basées sur les résultats des calculs aux éléments finis ont été réalisées avec succès à l’aide des méthodes FORM, AK-MCS et MCS. Cette approche probabiliste illustre l’évaluation de la fiabilité aux cas ELS selon les Eurocodes.
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Conolly, Brian, and J. P. Vilaplana. "Problemas de Calculo de Probabilidades (Problems in Probability Calculus). 3rd Edn." Applied Statistics 42, no. 2 (1993): 412. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2986250.
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Boričić, Marija. "Probability Sequent Calculi and Entropy Based Nonclassical Logics Classification." Bulletin of Symbolic Logic 25, no. 4 (December 2019): 446–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/bsl.2019.33.
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Muchlinski, Elke. "Épistémologie et probabilité chez Keynes." Articles 79, no. 1-2 (December 15, 2004): 57–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/009674ar.
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Résumé Cet article propose une analyse épistémologique de la théorie des probabilités de Keynes. Il concerne plus particulièrement le lien entre la conception keynésienne des probabilités et la théorie économique élaborée par Keynes. Nous montrerons que Keynes s’oppose à l’esthétisme formel, aux lois rigides et à la théorie orthodoxe en raison de sa prétendue universalité spatio-temporelle. Nous verrons que Keynes substitue aux catégories traditionnelles, entre autres celles de rigueur et de connaissance complète, de nouvelles catégories comme celles d’incertitude, d’ignorance et d’anticipation. Étant donné que Keynes rejette d’entrée de jeu les calculs du type ce ceux que l’on retrouve dans les approches inspirées de Bentham, nous ferons voir que sa théorie économique prend en compte la fragilité et la précarité de la connaissance. Nous insisterons enfin pour dire que Keynes nous paraît également dépasser le constructivisme, car il rejette ouvertement le recours aux concepts vides, à savoir ceux qui ne sont pour lui qu’un squelette sans chair. Enfin, nous mettrons en évidence que, poussé par le besoin de se fonder sur des principes valides a priori, Keynes abandonne l’empirisme classique à son sort.
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Naidoo, Dhesigan, and Vishan Ramloutan. "Differences in Urinary Calculi Characteristics among the Three Main Racial Groups in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa." Journal of Renal and Hepatic Disorders 7, no. 1 (May 4, 2023): 38–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.15586/jrenhep.v7i1.142.
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Racial differences in the characteristics of urinary calculi are poorly described in the South African context, limiting our local understanding of urolithiasis pathology and thwarting our efforts in designing appropriate preventative interventions. We sought to investigate differences in urinary calculi characteristics among the main racial groups in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We conducted a retrospective chart review of patients with urinary calculi at a quaternary hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, during 2018–2019. We collected data on the patient’s age, sex, race (Caucasian, Asian, Black African), residence, and pre-stenting. Five study outcomes were investigated across racial groups: number of calculi, location of the calculi, size of the calculi, density of the calculi (Hounsfield Unit measurement >600), and the number of operative interventions performed. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and unadjusted/adjusted logistic regression. Our study sample consisted of 147 patients (10.9% Caucasian, 55.8% Asian, and 33.3% Black African). Most patients (86.4%) were from urban areas. A higher proportion of Black Africans had urinary calculi with Hounsfield Unit measurements >600 (P = 0.002). In the logistic regression models, Black Africans had a higher probability of having urinary calculi with Hounsfield Unit measurements >600 (Unadjusted Odds Ratio: 7.17, 95% Confidence Interval: 2.00–27.80; Adjusted Odds Ratio: 18.75, 95% Confidence Interval: 3.37–157.57). Our analysis suggests that Black Africans are at higher risk of having harder urinary calculi than other race groups. This has implications for urolithiasis management and highlights the importance of primary prevention in this group. We recommend additional research to confirm our findings.
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Babar Baig, Shahid Hussain Soomro, Abdul Sattar Abro, Nadia Bhatti, Vaqar-e-Saher Shah, and Ehsan Ullah Malik. "Efficacy of tamsolusin hydrochloride as medical expulsive therapy in lower ureteric calculi < 9mm in adults." Professional Medical Journal 29, no. 06 (May 31, 2022): 899–904. http://dx.doi.org/10.29309/tpmj/2022.29.06.6757.
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Objectives: To determine the efficacy of Tamsolusin Hydrochloride as medical expulsive therapy in removal of lower ureteric calculi < 9 mm in adults. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Naz Memorial Hospital Karachi. Period: July 2019 to December 2019. Material & Methods: Using non-probability convenient sampling technique was conducted for 6 months. After ethical approval patients attending outpatient department with complains of bloody urine, abdominal, flank or groin pain and diagnosed as lower ureteric calculi < 9mm on ultrasonography. Upper ureteric or kidney calculi above 9 mm, patients already on Tamsolusin and lost to follow up or not willing to participate were excluded. Time period of the study was 4 weeks. Patients were started on Tamsolusin 0.4 mg once daily for 30 days. SPSS version 23.0 was used for data analysis. Qualitative data was reported as frequency in percentages. Results: Age range of patients was 18-50 years with mean age of 35.54 ± 10.20 years. 48 (40%) between 6 to 7 mm. After 1 month of follow up, total of 94 (78%) of patients were found to have expulsion of ureteric calculi. From the total of 30 days, the recorded frequency of calculi expulsion was 94 (78%). Among them, 25 (27%) patients were reported to have expulsion of calculi in between 15 to 19 days.32 (34%) patients between 20-24 days, while 37 (39%) patients between 25 to 29 days. Conclusion: Tamsolusin was significantly effective in expulsion of calculi with most calculi reported to be expulsed between 20-29 days of treatment. Patients also reported in significant decrease in pain frequency and were satisfied with treatment with Tamsolusin for lower ureteric calculi < 9mm.
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Rodríguez Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo, Signed Esperanza Prieto Bohórquez, Carlos Eduardo Pérez Díaz, Juan Mauricio Pardo Oviedo, Sandra Catalina Correa Herrera, Fernán Mendoza, Juan Bravo, Carlos Morales Pertuz, Nydia Alexandra Rojas Avila, and Milena Flores Cardenas. "Predicción espacio-temporal probabilista de la epidemia de dengue total y grave en Colombia." Revista de Salud Pública 20, no. 3 (May 1, 2018): 354–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/rsap.v20n3.42701.
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Objetivo Establecer una nueva metodología predictiva de la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total anual de infectados de dengue por departamento con base en la teoría de la probabilidad.Métodos Con base en los datos anuales de número de infectados por departamentos en el periodo 2005 -2010, se calculó la proporción entre casos de dengue grave respecto al total para cada año, y se construyeron espacios de probabilidad que evalúan estos eventos en rangos de 0,5 y 0,3. Se determinaron conjuntos de rangos y se calculó probabilidad, desviación media cuadrática y la diferencia entre ellas. Se realizó una predicción del rango de infectados para el 2011 con el promedio aritmético de los valores de los últimos dos años.Resultados Se predijo correctamente el rango en el que se encuentra incluida la proporción de número de infectados de dengue grave sobre el total en cada departamento con una efectividad del 93,3% para el rango de 0,5 y de 86,7% para el de 0,3.Conclusión Se evidenció una autoorganización matemática espacio temporal en la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total que permite establecer predicciones de utilidad para la toma de decisiones de salud pública.
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SHENOY, PRAKASH P. "REPRESENTING CONDITIONAL INDEPENDENCE RELATIONS BY VALUATION NETWORKS." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 02, no. 02 (June 1994): 143–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488594000134.
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Valuation networks have been proposed as graphical representations of valuation-based systems. The axiomatic framework of valuation-based systems is able to capture many uncertainty calculi including probability theory, Dempster-Shafer's belief-function theory, Spohn's epistemic belief theory, and Zadeh's possibility theory. In this paper, we show how valuation networks encode conditional independence relations. For the probabilistic case, the class of probability models encoded by valuation networks includes undirected graph models, directed acyclic graph models, directed balloon graph models, and recursive causal graph models.
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Xia, Zhi Yue, Yi Ming Ding, and Jian Ming Ouyang. "Comparison of Urinary Crystallites from Patients with Renal Calculi with that from Healthy Subjects." Advanced Materials Research 554-556 (July 2012): 1738–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.554-556.1738.
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The differences between the urinary crystallites from patients with renal calculi and healthy subjects were compared using SEM, XRD, and nano-particle size analyzer, etc. These differences concern morphology, aggregation state, number, particle size, crystal phase and Zeta potential, etc. About 90% of the crystallites had the particle sizes less than 20 μm, the Zeta potential was -(113) mV, and the composition included a large proportion of calcium oxalate dihydrate (COD) crystals. By comparison, the urinary crystallites from patients with renal calculi had sharp edges and corners and exhibited significant aggregation. There were more crystallites with the size greater than 20 μm in comparison with those in healthy subjects, their Zeta potential was -(73) mV, and calcium oxalate existed mainly in the form of calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM) crystals. The above differences increased the aggregation trend of the crystallites in lithogenic urine and caused the probability of renal calculi formation to increase.
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Jefferies, Brian, and Werner J. Ricker. "Integration with respect to vector valued Radon polymeasures." Journal of the Australian Mathematical Society. Series A. Pure Mathematics and Statistics 56, no. 1 (February 1994): 17–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1446788700034716.
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AbstractProblems dealing with certain functional calculi for systems of non-commuting operators, and ordered calculi for systems of certain types of pseudo-differential operators, can sometimes be treated via the methods of integration with respect to polymeasures. The polymeasures arising in this fashion (called Radon polymeasures) often have additional structure not available in the general theory. This allows for a more extensive class of “integrable” functions than just the product functions allowed in the abstract theory. The purpose here is to further develop special aspects of integration with respect to Radon polymeasures with a particular emphasis on identifying large classes of “integrable” functions.
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Naz, Sameena, Muhammad Ayaz Khan, Syed Afzal Shah, Khush Bakht, and Suleman Khan. "Frequency of Renal Lithiasis among Patients Visiting a Tertiary Care Public Sector Hospital in Peshawar, Pakistan." Journal of Farkhanda Institute of Nursing And Public Health (JFINPH) 2, no. 1 (June 28, 2022): 51–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.37762/jfinph.40.
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OBJECTIVES To determine the frequency of renal lithiasis among patients coming to Khyber Teaching Hospital Peshawar. METHODOLOGY This Observational cross-sectional study was undertaken at Khyber Teaching Hospital Peshawar, period (January 2021 to August 2021). Data were collected through a self-administered questionnaire. Non-probability convenient sampling technique was used to recruit 61 patients. Institutional Review Board approval was obtained prior to data collection. SPSS version 20 was used to analyze data. RESULTS Out of 160 patients, 61(37.5%) patients were having renal calculi. Among those 61 patients, n=49(80%) were male participants and 12(20%) female participants said that they are having renal calculi. The age of the participants was 12-65years. The proportion of males was approximately higher as compared to the females. Most of the participants have renal calculi at the time of the examination. CONCLUSION There is a high rate of renal lithiasis in mostly male patients and at young ages. These demographic factors may be potentially associated with the occurrence of renal lithiasis. Further research is required to study these factors in detail in relation to renal lithiasis
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Yaremenko, Mykola. "Measurable Functional Calculi and Spectral Theory." Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 18, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 78–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/jmssp.2022.78.86.
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Kangas-Dick, Aaron, Umair Khan, Oluwafunbi Awoniyi, Shanza Waqar, Nu Nwe Tun, Karthikeyan Viswanathan, and Cynthia Wong. "A Case of Chronic Calcific Nonalcoholic Pancreatitis." Case Reports in Gastrointestinal Medicine 2016 (2016): 1–3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2963681.
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Tropical Calcific Pancreatitis (TCP) is a type of chronic calcific nonalcoholic pancreatitis. Similar to nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis, it presents in the second and third decades of life; however this type is reported mostly in the developing tropical and subtropical countries. It is associated with the formation of pancreatic calculi and a high probability of developing insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Epidemiologic studies have shown that these patients have an increased risk of developing pancreatic carcinoma. The etiology of TCP remains uncertain, with the current consensus suggesting genetics as well as possible toxicity from consuming large amounts of cassava, a tuber. Definite diagnosis of TCP requires younger age of onset, history of malnutrition, and presence of diabetes mellitus along with extensive pancreatic calcification and ductal calculi. When patients meet most but not all of these conditions the term Idiopathic Chronic Pancreatitis (ICP) is used. This is a case of a 44-year-old man who presented with most features seen in TCP, and however, was diagnosed with ICP.
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Sharma, Anita. "A Study to Assess the Effectiveness of Planned Teaching Program on Knowledge Regarding Modifiable Risk Factors and Prevention of Renal Calculi Among Selected Rural Community of Dehradun." International Journal of Health Sciences and Research 14, no. 4 (April 16, 2024): 358–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.52403/ijhsr.20240447.
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To ensure good health: eat lightly, breathe deeply, live moderately, cultivate cheerfulness, and maintain an interest in life. Renal calculus is stone like body composed of urinary salts bound together by a colloid matrix of organic materials. It consists of a nucleus around with concentric layers of urinary salts are deposited. The cause of renal stone is hyper excretion of relatively insoluble urinary constituents, physiological changes in urine PH, environmental and dietary factors. Depending on causes they are classified as calcium phosphate, calcium oxalate, uric acid, cystine and struvite. The aim of the study was to assess the effectiveness of planned teaching program on knowledge regarding modifiable risk factors and prevention of renal calculi. A pre-experimental one group post test design was used for the study. A total 70 men and women of rural community from Dudhli village of Dehradun, Uttarakhand were selected through convenience non-probability sampling technique. The data was collected through self-structured questionnaire on modifiable risk factors and prevention of renal calculi. The tool was developed in two parts, the part first deal with the 8 questions of demographic variables and the part two consist of 33 knowledge questions on modifiable risk factors and prevention of renal calculi. Results show that out 70 samples, majority of subjects 39(55.7%) was having inadequate knowledge, 31(44.3%) had moderate knowledge and no one have adequate knowledge. Pre-test mean score was 16.07 with 3.82 SD. After administering planned teaching program 25 (35.7%) had adequate knowledge, 41 (58.6%) had moderate knowledge and 04 (5.7%) had inadequate knowledge. The post-test mean score was 23.65 with 4.17 SD with a mean difference of 7.58 as evident from paired ‘t’ value of 11.579 at 69 df at 0.05 level of significance. The chi square depicts that there is no significant association between knowledge of rural community regarding modifiable risk factors and prevention of renal calculi with selected demographic variables. The study was concluded that planned teaching program was effective in increasing the knowledge regarding modifiable risk factors and prevention of renal calculi among selected rural community. On the basis of the findings, it is recommended that such type of teaching program should be conducted on time to time for all rural communities who are at higher risk for renal calculi so that they can practice preventive approaches. Key words: Renal calculi, planned teaching program, modifiable risk factor, Rural.
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Dupuis, Jérémie B., Jimmy Bourque, and Salah-Eddine El Adlouni. "Les déterminants de la résilience et de la réussite scolaire : une approche bayésienne." Canadian Journal of Education/Revue canadienne de l'éducation 44, no. 4 (December 14, 2021): 992–1023. http://dx.doi.org/10.53967/cje-rce.v44i4.4885.
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Avec un échantillon de 22 113 élèves de la 7e à la 12e année du Nouveau-Brunswick, les déterminants de la résilience et de la réussite scolaire ont été identifiés à l’échelle provinciale et pour chacune des 7 zones de santé. Pour ce faire, cette étude adopte une approche méthodologique en trois étapes. D’abord, des régressions logistiques fréquentielles ont été utilisées pour faire un tri préliminaire des déterminants. Ensuite, des régressions logistiques bayésiennes avec 20 000 simulations MCMC ont permis de préciser les estimations et enfin, des calculs de probabilité à l’aide de profils d’élèves fictifs ont été effectués.
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Essama, Gervais, and Huu Minh Mai. "Représentation probabiliste des rendements des actifs financiers : difficultés d’estimation et résultats empiriques." Économie appliquée 47, no. 4 (1994): 133–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ecoap.1994.1537.
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L'utilisation des lois stables en finance a pour but de remédier à l’insuffisance de la loi normale. De nombreuses études empiriques ont montré que les variations des cours boursiers dévient fortement de la normalité. Pour vérifier l’adéquation des variations de cours boursiers à cette famille de lois, il est nécessaire d’en estimer les paramètres et d’être capable de calculer leurs fonctions de distribution : de nombreuses méthodes de calculs et d’ estimation sont alors proposées mais les résultats obtenus restent peu satisfaisants. Dans certains cas, l’absence de variance rend difficile la modélisation du comportement des rentabilités ou encore l ’évaluation de certains titres financiers dont la valeur est en grande partie déterminée par la volatilité -les options, par exemple. Par ailleurs, l’occurrence d’événements à caractère accidentel n’est pas suffisamment appréhendée par les lois stables. C’est ainsi que sont alors proposés des processus mixtes et des processus qui intègrent la composante autorégressive de certaines séries économiques. Nous proposons des alternatives à la loi normale et mettons en évidence la difficulté particulière d’utilisation des lois stables, à savoir l’estimation par différentes méthodes des paramètres qui les caractérisent. Nos tests conduisent à rejeter la loi normale. Les lois stables semblent mieux décrire la distribution des données boursières françaises. Ces résultats entraînent un certain nombre d’implications que nous évoquerons également, notamment la définition d’une mesure de la dispersion des cours pour la gestion de portefeuille.
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Herdzik, Jerzy. "Problems of risk assessment procedures accomplishment on vessels." AUTOBUSY – Technika, Eksploatacja, Systemy Transportowe 19, no. 6 (September 7, 2018): 106–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/atest.2018.046.
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It was presenting the rules creation of risk assessment procedures the analyzed activity executing on vessels. The necessity of procedure executing results from ship-owner safety management system as an effect of requirements from International Management Code for the Safe Operations of Ships and for Pollution Prevention (ISM code). The increas-ing safety of ship operations and the decreasing of accident threats and their effects on people and environment were the aim of implementation. The risk assessment relies on calcula-tion the product of definite accidental hazard level (effects) and its probability. Exceeding definite number threshold requires carried out the actions decreasing the risk to the acceptable level or undertaking the decision of abandonment the analyzed activity.
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Parent, E., F. Lebdi, and P. Hurand. "Gestion stratégique d'un système de ressources en eau : l'exemple du système NESTE." Revue des sciences de l'eau 4, no. 4 (April 12, 2005): 543–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/705115ar.
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L'article que nous proposons s'inscrit dans le cadre des problèmes d'optimisation bimensionnelle (irrigation & salubrité) des ressources en eau durant la période d'étiage. Sur le cas du système NESTE, la résolution est effectuée selon deux approches : - un modèle de programmation dynamique avec état de dimension deux (niveau des réserves, niveau dans la rivière) où, dans la solution numérique, les variables sont discrétisées; - un modèle « synthétique » où l'on calcule une probabilité de non dépassement caractérisant l'état hydrique des ressources du système. Une règle empirique permet d'associer à cette grandeur une décision de consigne à effectuer. Les résultats numériques sont comparés sur une série de chroniques historiques. Les avantages et les inconvénients de chacune des deux approches sont mis en lumière sur le cas réel du système NESTE.
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Nikolaidis, Efstratios, Sophie Chen, Harley Cudney, Raphael T. Haftka, and Raluca Rosca. "Comparison of Probability and Possibility for Design Against Catastrophic Failure Under Uncertainty." Journal of Mechanical Design 126, no. 3 (September 1, 2003): 386–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.1701878.
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This paper compares probabilistic and possibility-based methods for design under uncertainty. It studies the effect of the amount of data about uncertainty on the effectiveness of each method. Only systems whose failure is catastrophic are considered, where catastrophic means that the boundary between success and failure is sharp. First, the paper examines the theoretical foundations of probability and possibility, focusing on the impact of the differences between the two theories on design. Then the paper compares the two theories on design problems. A major difference between probability and possibility is in the axioms about the union of events. Because of this difference, probability and possibility calculi are fundamentally different and one cannot simulate possibility calculus using probabilistic models. Possibility-based methods tend to underestimate the risk of failure of systems with many failure modes. For example, the possibility of failure of a series system of nominally identical components is equal to the possibility of failure of a single component. When designing for safety, the two methods try to maximize safety in radically different ways and consequently may produce significantly different designs. Probability minimizes the system failure probability whereas possibility maximizes the normalized deviation of the uncertain variables from their nominal values that the system can tolerate without failure. In contrast to probabilistic design, which accounts for the cost of reducing the probability of each failure mode in design, possibility tries to equalize the possibilities of failure of the failure modes, regardless of the attendant cost. In many safety assessment problems, one can easily determine the most conservative possibilistic model that is consistent with the available information, whereas this is not the case with probabilistic models. When we have sufficient data to build accurate probabilistic models of the uncertain variables, probabilistic design is better than possibility-based design. However, when designers need to make subjective decisions, both probabilistic and possibility-based designs can be useful. The reason is that large differences in these designs can alert designers to problems with the probabilistic design associated with insufficient data and tell them that they have more flexibility in the design than they may have known.
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Olaya, Frank C., Reginaldo Durazo, Vera Oerder, Enric Pallàs-Sanz, and Joaquim P. Bento. "Ocean Front Detection with Glider and Satellite-Derived SST Data in the Southern California Current System." Remote Sensing 13, no. 24 (December 10, 2021): 5032. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13245032.
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This study proposes a method to detect ocean fronts from in situ temperature and density glider measurements. This method is applied to data collected along the CalCOFI Line 90, south of the California Current System (CCS), over the 2006–2013 period. It is based on image-processing techniques commonly applied to sea surface temperature (SST) satellite data. Front detection results using glider data are consistent with those obtained in other studies carried out in the CCS. SST images of the Multi-scale Ultra-high Resolution (MUR) dataset were also used to compare the probability of occurrence or front frequency (FF) obtained with the two datasets. Glider and MUR temperatures are highly correlated. Along Line 90, frontal frequency exhibited the same maxima near the transition zone (~130 km offshore) as derived from MUR and glider datasets. However, marked differences were found in the bimonthly FF probability with high (low) front frequency in spring-summer for glider (MUR) data. Methodological differences explaining these contrasting results are investigated. Thermohaline-compensated fronts are more abundant towards the oceanic zone, although most fronts are detected using both temperature and density criteria, indicating a significant contribution of temperature to density in this region.
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El-Assmy, Ahmed, Ahmed R. El-Nahas, Mohamed E. Abo-Elghar, Ibrahim Eraky, Mahmoud R. El-Kenawy, and Khaled Z. Sheir. "Predictors of Success after Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) for Renal Calculi Between 20—30 mm: A Multivariate Analysis Model." Scientific World JOURNAL 6 (2006): 2388–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1100/tsw.2006.370.
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The first-line management of renal stones between 20—30 mm remains controversial. The Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) stone-free rates for such patient groups vary widely. The purpose of this study was to define factors that have a significant impact on the stone-free rate after ESWL in such controversial groups. Between January 1990 and January 2004, 594 patients with renal stones 20—30 mm in length underwent ESWL monotherapy. Stone surface area was measured for all stones. The results of treatment were evaluated after 3 months of follow-up. The stone-free rate was correlated with stone and patient characteristics using the Chi-square test; factors found to be significant were further analyzed using multivariate analysis.Repeat ESWL was needed in 56.9% of cases. Post-ESWL complications occurred in 5% of cases and post-ESWL secondary procedures were required in 5.9%. At 3-month follow-up, the overall stone-free rate was 77.2%. Using the Chi-square test, stone surface area, location, number, radiological renal picture, and congenital renal anomalies had a significant impact on the stone-free rate. Multivariate analysis excluded radiological renal picture from the logistic regression model while other factors maintained their statistically significant effect on success rate, indicating that they were independent predictors. A regression analysis model was designed to estimate the probability of stone-free status after ESWL. The sensitivity of the model was 97.4%, the specificity 90%, and the overall accuracy 95.6%.Stone surface area, location, number, and congenital renal anomalies are prognostic predictors determining stone clearance after ESWL of renal calculi of 20—30 mm. High probability of stone clearance is obtained with single stone ≤400 mm2 located in renal pelvis with no congenital anomalies. Our regression model can predict the probability of the success of ESWL in such controversial groups and can define patients who would need other treatment modality.
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Ahmad, Abd Alrahman, Omar Alhunaidi, Mohamed Aziz, Mohamed Omar, Ahmed M. Al-Kandari, Ahmed El-Nahas, and Mohamed El-Shazly. "Current trends in percutaneous nephrolithotomy: an internet-based survey." Therapeutic Advances in Urology 9, no. 9-10 (August 15, 2017): 219–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1756287217724726.
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Background: The aim of this study was to report current practices of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) among endourologists. Methods: An internet survey was administered to Endourological Society members. Responders were distributed into three groups according to the number of PCNL cases per year (<50, 50–100, >100). PCNL technical details as well as opinions regarding specific clinical case scenarios were evaluated and compared between groups. Results: We received 300 responses from 47 different countries. Prone position was used in 77% of cases, while 16% used supine position and only 7% used modified lateral decubitus. Most endourologists performed their own access. There were no significant differences between the three groups regarding patient position ( p = 0.1), puncture acquisition by urologist or radiologist ( p = 0.2) and fluoroscopic puncture technique ( p = 0.2). Endourologists with high annual PCNL practice (>100) had least probability to utilize nephrostomy tube ( p = 0.0005) or use balloon dilator ( p = 0.0001). They also had the highest probability of performing mini-PERC ( p = 0.0001). Conclusions: The majority of endourologists performing PCNL obtain their own access. Prone positioning is predominant, while totally tubeless PCNL are uncommon. Mini-PERC is gaining more popularity among endourologists. Most endourologists follow the guidelines for their choice of treatment modality in different sizes and locations of upper tract calculi.
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atila, abdullah, Mehmet SARIHAN, zeynep al, and Hasan r. "EVALUATION OF CLINICAL AND LABORATORY RESULTS OF PATIENTS DIAGNOSED URINARY CALCULI IN EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT." Annals of Medical Research 30, no. 5 (2023): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5455/annalsmedres.2023.01.032.
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Aim: In this study, we examined the factors affecting the rate of urine culture positivity and the rate of urine culture positivity in patients who were found to have kidney stones in the emergency department and were followed up by the Urology outpatient clinic. We evaluated the examinations and treatments of these patients with the results of the urology outpatient clinic until the urine culture results were obtained. We think that our study will provide useful information to emergency service workers in the evaluation of patients with urinary system stones. Material and method: In this study, patients who applied to Emergency Medicine Department of İnönü University Faculty of Medicine between January 1st, 2016 and November 1st, 2022, who were diagnosed with urinary calculi by imaging and who were followed up in the Urology outpatient clinic, were retrospectively analyzed. The age and gender of the patients, as laboratory tests, complete blood count, urinalysis, serology and urine culture results were examined. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed with all the parameters obtained from our study and the analysis was statistically significant according to the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. Results: In our study, there were a total of 349 patients, 99 (28.37%) female and 250 (71.63%) male, and a pathogenic microorganism growth was observed in the urine culture of 40 (11.7%) of the patients. The first two microorganisms most frequently encountered in urine culture were Escherichia Coli (24/40) and Klebsiella spp. (5/40). In the logistic regression model, nitrite positivity increased 48.8%, urinary white blood cells increased 0.2%, bacteria presence in urine 3.06%, and increased patient age increased the probability of culture positivity by 2.6%. Each 1 unit increase in hemoglobin value decreased the probability of positive urine culture by 27.8%. Conclusion: The leukocyte count, bacteria presence, nitrite positivity, low blood hemoglobin and advancing advanced age in the complete expulsion examination of a patient with urinary system stone are the prediction of a positive ejection result. These data should be considered in the decision to take the culture of dissemination at the time of death of patients with urinary tract stones or the management of care during the time until they reach the respiratory tract.
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Dukundane, Bertine, Josiane Uyisenga, Patrick Rugwiro, Aphrodis Tuyishimire, Isaac Mubashankwaya, Fabrice Munyandamutsa, Jean Claude Abijuru, and Pascal Nyabinwa. "Conditions Responsible for Meat Condemnations in Cattle Slaughtered in Bugesera, Gicumbi and Rwamagana districts of Rwanda." European Journal of Animal Health 3, no. 1 (January 14, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.47672/ejah.903.
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Introduction: Records obtained from slaughterhouses on the causes of meat condemnation is vital in contributing to the surveillance of disease prevalence and for promoting food security by protecting the community from consuming infected or unhygienic meat.
Purpose: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of conditions that lead to organs and/or carcass condemnation.
Methodology: A retrospective study design was used to collect data by using a structured questionnaire. The study reviewed three years (October 2018 to October 2021) postmortem inspection records of cattle slaughtered at abattoirs located in Bugesera, Gicumbi, and Rwamagana districts of Rwanda.
Findings: Of the 9256 cattle slaughtered, 26.3% had at least one condition leading to total condemnation of organs or carcasses. The results of the study also revealed that the fasciolosis was the main cause of the liver (41.1%, 90.0%, and 65.5%) condemnation in the three districts respectively, while the kidney (4.7%, 0.8%, and 6.4%) was condemned due to urinary calculi. The leading causes of condemnation of lungs and intestine were insufficient bleeding (50.1%) and pimply gut (0.7%), respectively. In decreasing order of probability of being more prevalent, the top four conditions were: fasciolosis (9.2%), insufficient bleeding (3.2%), urinary calculi (0.9%), and hydronephrosis (0.6%).
Recommendations: These results highlight the need for improved meat inspection practices at abattoirs, awareness of stakeholders involved in cattle trading value chain, and implementing control and prevention measures against these conditions. This will help improving meat safety at abattoirs while ensuring food security and profitability of meat value chain.
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Belgacem, Fethi Bin Muhammad, and Ahmed Abdullatif Karaballi. "Principal eigenvalue characterization connected with stochastic particle motion in a finite interval." Journal of Applied Mathematics and Stochastic Analysis 15, no. 4 (January 1, 2002): 349–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/s104895330200028x.
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In this paper, we show that despite their distinction, both the Statonovich and Îto s calculi lead to the same reactive Fokker-Planck equation: ∂p∂t−∂∂x[D∂p∂x−bp]=λmp, (1) describing stochastic dynamics of a particle moving under the influence of an indefinite potential m(x,t), a drift b(x,t), and a constant diffusion D. We treat the periodic-parabolic eigenvalue problem (1) for finite domains having absorbing barriers. We show that under conditions required by the maximum principle, the positive principal eigenvalue λ* (and the negative principal λ* eigenvalue) is connected to the probability eigendensity function p(x,t) by a Raleigh-Ritz like formulation. In the process, we establish the manner of effect of the drift and any inducing potential on the size of the principal eigenvalue. We show that the degree of convexity of the potential plays a major role in this regard.
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Zhang, Yi, Stéphane Commend, and Marc Groslambert. "Analyses et modélisations sur les argiles plastiques du Sparnacien du Bassin parisien." Revue Française de Géotechnique, no. 171 (2022): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/geotech/2022003.
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Les argiles plastiques d’âge Sparnacien (Eocène inférieur) présentent un enjeu géotechnique fort pour le projet Grand Paris Express, un des plus grands projets du métro en cours de construction en Europe. Ces Argiles plastiques sont imperméables, normalement consolidées ou surconsolidées, et présentent un potentiel de gonflement. Le mécanisme de gonflement des Argiles plastiques est complexe car il dépend de ses caractéristiques physiques et chimiques, ainsi que de ses états mécaniques et hydriques. Dans cet article, nous présentons d’abord les analyses des retours d’expériences sur les Argiles plastiques, ainsi que les paramètres géotechniques et les lois de comportement utilisés dans ces REX. Ensuite, nous présentons les différentes méthodes de modélisation des Argiles plastiques, à savoir la solution analytique et empirique, la méthode aux éléments finis semi-probabiliste et l’approche probabiliste. De plus, les applications numériques aux différents types d’ouvrages sont également réalisées, à savoir puits, parois moulées et tunnels. Les résultats de ces calculs ont été comparés aux mesures d’auscultations, qui permettent de vérifier les résultats des simulations numériques. À la fin, une analyse inverse à l’aide de la méthode d’inférence Bayésienne a été effectuée pour préciser la prédiction du gonflement des Argiles plastiques.
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Aumont, Gilles. "Simulation du risque d’infestation de bovins par des trichostrongylides dans un Climat tropical humide." Revue d’élevage et de médecine vétérinaire des pays tropicaux 46, no. 1-2 (January 1, 1993): 23–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.19182/remvt.9369.
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La dynamique des populations de larves de trichostrongylides du troisième stade (L3) autour des bouses de bovins a été ajustée avec des modèles non-linéaires (loi marginale) dans un climat tropical humide dans des situations climatiques différentes. Ces modèles marginaux ont été combinés avec la durée de survie des bouses, le poids des animaux, le nombre de bouses par vache et par jour, la charge en animaux par hectare et la masse d'herbage disponible, en tenant compte de la tendance des bovins à paître de façon inégale, afin d'estimer la probabilité d'infestation par des larves L3. Le risque d'infestation a été calculé pour différents âges de repousse de l'herbage et différents temps de pâture dans des systèmes de rotation des pâturages. Le risque d 'infestation variait entre 0 et 1400 L3 par kg de matière sèche d'herbe et par jour, dépendante de la loi marginale. Le temps de pâture, l'âge de la repousse et la disponibilité de fourrage étaient les principaux facteurs de variation du risque d'infestation.
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Batz, Kevin, Adrian Gallus, Benjamin Lucien Kaminski, Joost-Pieter Katoen, and Tobias Winkler. "Weighted programming: a programming paradigm for specifying mathematical models." Proceedings of the ACM on Programming Languages 6, OOPSLA1 (December 8, 2022): 1–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3527310.
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We study weighted programming, a programming paradigm for specifying mathematical models. More specifically, the weighted programs we investigate are like usual imperative programs with two additional features: (1) nondeterministic branching and (2) weighting execution traces. Weights can be numbers but also other objects like words from an alphabet, polynomials, formal power series, or cardinal numbers. We argue that weighted programming as a paradigm can be used to specify mathematical models beyond probability distributions (as is done in probabilistic programming). We develop weakest-precondition- and weakest-liberal-precondition-style calculi à la Dijkstra for reasoning about mathematical models specified by weighted programs. We present several case studies. For instance, we use weighted programming to model the ski rental problem — an optimization problem. We model not only the optimization problem itself, but also the best deterministic online algorithm for solving this problem as weighted programs. By means of weakest-precondition-style reasoning, we can determine the competitive ratio of the online algorithm on source code level.
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Duboid, Didier, and Henri Prade. "Non-standard theories of uncertainty in knowledge representation and reasoning." Knowledge Engineering Review 9, no. 4 (December 1994): 399–416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269888900007128.
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AbstractThis paper provides a survey of the state of the art in plausible reasoning, that is exception tolerant reasoning under incomplete information. Three requirements are necessary for a formalism in order to cope with this problem: (i) making a clear distinction between factual information and generic knowledge; (ii) having a correct representation of partial ignorance; (iii) providing a nonmonotonic inference mechanism. Classical logic fails on requirements (i) and (iii), whilst the Bayesian approach does not fulfil (ii) in an unbiased way. In this perspective, various uncertainty modelling frameworks are reviewed: MYCIN-like fully compositional calculi, belief functions, upper and lower probability systems, and possibility theory. Possibility theory enables classical logic to be extended to layered sets of formulae, where layers express certainty levels. Finally, it is explained how generic knowledge can be expressed by constraints on possibility measures, and how possibilistic inferences can encode nonmonotonic reasoning in agreement with the Lehmann et al. postulates.
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Anastassiou, George A. "Abstract Fractional Monotone Approximation with Applications." Fractal and Fractional 5, no. 4 (October 9, 2021): 158. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract5040158.
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Here we extended our earlier fractional monotone approximation theory to abstract fractional monotone approximation, with applications to Prabhakar fractional calculus and non-singular kernel fractional calculi. We cover both the left and right sides of this constrained approximation. Let f∈Cp−1,1, p≥0 and let L be a linear abstract left or right fractional differential operator such that Lf≥0 over 0,1 or −1,0, respectively. We can find a sequence of polynomials Qn of degree ≤n such that LQn≥0 over 0,1 or −1,0, respectively. Additionally f is approximated quantitatively with rates uniformly by Qn with the use of first modulus of continuity of fp.
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Cardona, Omar-Darío, Gabriel A. Bernal, Daniela Zuloaga, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Diana González. "Amenaza y riesgo sísmico del Cono Sur." REDER 1, no. 1 (July 15, 2017): 43. http://dx.doi.org/10.55467/reder.v1i1.4.
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Se presenta la evaluación del riesgo sísmico en Chile y Argentina, siguiendo un enfoque probabilista, con el objetivo de determinar el perfil de riesgo catastrófico de ambos países. Un modelo de amenaza regional fue definido con base en la caracterización del proceso de subducción, los sistemas de fallamiento intraplaca localizados, un catálogo sismológico actualizado y funciones de atenuación espectrales adecuadas, resultando en curvas, mapas y una colección de eventos generados estocásticamente. La exposición se modeló a partir de una representación aproximada de los activos expuestos (proxi), con base en indicadores socioeconómicos nacionales, obteniendo valores de reposición de construcciones e infraestructura, y para los principales sectores económicos de los países. La vulnerabilidad se definió a partir de funciones de vulnerabilidad apropiadas para cada tipo de infraestructura. El riesgo se calculó de manea totalmente probabilista, en términos de la curva de excedencia de pérdidas y la distribución geográfica de la pérdida anual esperada, para diversos portafolios y de manera separada para Chile y Argentina. Finalmente, se presenta una evaluación detallada del riesgo sísmico de la ciudad de Mendoza, donde se incluye la microzonificación sísmica de la ciudad y el catastro detallado, obteniendo una evaluación a nivel de edificaciones para toda la ciudad.
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Rhenals, Remberto, and Alejandro Torres. "Volatilidad de los flujos de capital hacia paises en desarrollo: evidencia para América Latina, 1970-2002." Lecturas de Economía, no. 67 (October 20, 2010): 9–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n67a7310.
Full textAbstract:
Resumen:
La dinámica de los flujos de capital hacia los países en desarrollo en las
últimas décadas, ha puesto nuevamente en el centro del debate la discusión sobre sus
beneficios y costos. El objetivo del presente artículo es analizar el comportamiento de los
flujos de capital entre 1970 y 2002, su grado de volatilidad y sus efectos sobre el desempeño macroeconómico de América Latina. La volatilidad se mide mediante el coeficiente de variación, que se calcula de dos formas. Los resultados muestran que la volatilidad de los flujos de capital y del crecimiento de la región no parece haber aumentado, pese a la gran importancia adquirida por los flujos privados de capital desde principios de los noventa.
Palabras claves: Flujos de capital, América Latina, países en desarrollo, volatilidad,
factores de atracción y factores de expulsión.
Clasificación JEL: F21, F32, O16.
Abstract: Capital inflows dynamics towards developing countries during the last decades again has posited in the center of the debate the discussion on its benefits and costs. The objective of this work is to analyze the behavior of capital flows over 1970 and 2002, their volatility and effects on the Latin American macroeconomic performance. Volatility is measured by means of the variation coefficient, which is calculated in two forms. The results show that the volatility of capital inflows and the regional growth seem not to have
increased, in spite of the very importance private flows acquired since the beginning of
nineties.
Keywords: Capital Flows, Latin America, Developing Countries, Volatility, Pull
Factors and Push Factors.
JEL Classification: F21, F32, O16.
Résumé: La dynamique des flux de capitaux vers les pays en voie développement dans
les dernières décennies a permit le retour du débat autour de ses bénéfices et de ses coûts. L’objectif de cet article est d’analyser le comportement des flux de capitaux entre 1970 et 2002, en tenant compte de son degré de volatilité et de ses effets sur la performance macroéconomique en l’Amérique Latine. La volatilité est mesurée par le coefficient de variation, lequel est calculé d’après deux méthodes. Les résultats montrent que la volatilité des flux de capitaux et de la croissance de la région ne paraît pas avoir augmenté, en dépit de la importance des flux privés de capital depuis le début des années quatre-vingt-dix.
Mots clef: Flux de capitaux, l’Amérique Latine, pays en voie développement, volatilité,
facteurs d’attraction, facteurs d’expulsion.
Classification JEL: F21, F32, O16.
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Pak, Yu G., N. A. Kalyagina, and D. M. Yagudaev. "Effectiveness of high-intensity laser light for treating large kidney stones." Laser Medicine 25, no. 2 (November 27, 2021): 16–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.37895/2071-8004-2021-25-2-16-21.
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Introduction. This work analyzes efficacy, convenience, and safety of a high-energy laser light technique for destructing large kidney stones in patients with nephrolithiasis in comparison to other contact methods of nephrolithotripsy.Material and methods. The effectiveness of contact laser nephrolithotripsy is compared to that of hydropneumatic and ultrasonic lithotripsy. Holmium green laser light was used in this laser procedure. For other techniques, Swiss LithoClast Master devices were used. The authors have analyzed outcomes obtained after operating on 73 patients with large and complex kidney stones.Results. To evaluate the effectiveness, basic parameters were taken (degree of kidney cleaning of stones and their fragments, probability of migration of stone fragments, blood loss, duration of surgery, complications, etc.). In addition, the correlation between basic parameters was obtained and analyzed.Conclusion. The present trial has shown that laser contact lithotripsy is the most optimal technique for destructing large and complex kidney stones in comparison to traditional modalities such as contact hydropneumatic and ultrasonic lithotripsy. It takes more time but provides more effective cleaning from calculi.
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Livi Bacci, Massimo, and Marco Breschi. "Saison et climat comme contraintes de la survie des enfants. L'expérience italienne au XIXe siècle." Population Vol. 41, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 9–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/popu.p1986.41n1.0035.
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Résumé Breschi Marco et Livi Bacci Massimo. — Saison et climat comme contraintes de la survie des enfants. L'expérience italienne au xix* siècle. Puisque la mortalité infantile ancienne dépendait des conditions climatiques, elle devait varier selon le mois de naissance. C'est effectivement ce que Ton met en évidence aussi bien à partir des statistiques officielles (de 1863 à 1882, les décès ont été publiés en Italie avec un double classement par âge et mois de naissance) qu'à l'aide de la reconstitution des familles dans deux villages italiens. L'hiver est particulièrement dangereux pour les plus jeunes nourrissons. Là où il est dur et où les moyens de lutter contre le froid sont rudimentaires, la génération d'hiver est sévèrement fauchée. L'été est moins meurtrier, mais ses effets jouent sur une plus grande gamme d'âge et se conjuguent à ceux du sevrage. La probabilité de passer le cap de la première année, et dans une moindre mesure, des années suivantes, dépend alors du mois de naissance, comme les calculs de l'article le montrent avec netteté.
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Leclair, Marie, Isabelle Léonard, Guillaume Rateau, Patrick Sillard, Gaëtan Varlet, and Pierre Vernédal. "Scanner Data: Advances in Methodology and New Challenges for Computing Consumer Price Indices." Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, no. 509 (September 17, 2019): 13–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.509.1981.
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Hu, Qiyi, Hui Liang, Zhu Wang, Qiong Deng, Jianwen Zhang, Hongliang Wang, Fan Zhi, and Hongjun Zhao. "Medical Diagnosis of Upper Urinary Calculi Based on Image Filtering in Ureteroscopic Lithotripsy." Journal of Medical Imaging and Health Informatics 9, no. 2 (February 1, 2019): 376–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1166/jmihi.2019.2615.
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Objective: Based on improved image processing techniques, we investigate the therapeutic effect and safety of a flexible ureteroscope applied in treatment of upper urinary calculi with and without preoperative ureteral stent, and analyzed their outcome based on CT and ultrasound medical imaging technology, as well as other clinical data. Methods: These identified patients were randomly divided into two groups, 89 patients suffering from upper urinary calculi in Group A were treated with flexible ureteroscopy lithotripsy and Holmium laser, without preoperative ureteral stent. On the other hand, another 114 patients in Group B received preoperative ureteral stent. In terms of measurement indicators, the total operation time, hospitalization time, hospital costs, success rate of operation, clearance rate of stone, occurrence rate of complications, and the probability of a second operation were recorded, respectively. In order to verify the effect of the operation, we performed Computed Tomography (CT), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), Ultrasound Examination on the patient before and after the operation, and processed the image by downhill filtering algorithm and adaptive median filtering to ensure the validity and accuracy of the experiment. Results: By analyzing other clinical data such as medical images, it is known when making comparisons between two groups, there were no significant difference in terms of stone size, stone site, and success rate of operation (97.8%, 87/89 for group A; 100%, 114/144 for group B). In further, the operation time of group A was longer than that of group B (65.46 ± 10.17 min vs. 59.58 ± 9.25 min, P < 0 05), and the hospitalization time in group A was much shorter (6.53 ± 0.89 d vs. 10.16 ± 1.50 d, P < 0.01). The clearance rate of stone at 3-day post-surgery in group A was much lower than that of group B (36%, 32/89 vs. 51.7%, 59/114, P < 0.05). In addition, the clearance rate of stone at 1-month post-surgery (84.3%, 75/89 in group A vs. 85.1%, 97/114 in group B), and the occurrence rate of complications (21.3%, 19/89 in group A vs. 20.1%, 23/114 in group B) showed no significantly difference (P > 0.05). Besides, the probabilities of a second operation in group A and B were 14.6% (19/89) and 20.1% (23/114), respectively. And no significantly difference could be drawn according to statistical analysis. Conclusion: The application of flexible ureteroscope applied in treatment of upper urinary calculi without preoperative ureteral stent was economical, safe and effective.
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Mordukhovich, B. S., N. M. Nam, R. B. Rector, and T. Tran. "Variational Geometric Approach to Generalized Differential and Conjugate Calculi in Convex Analysis." Set-Valued and Variational Analysis 25, no. 4 (June 5, 2017): 731–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11228-017-0426-7.
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Bortoluzzi, Mateus Possebon, Arno Bernardo Heldwein, Roberto Trentin, Astor Henrique Nied, Jocélia Rosa da Silva, and Leidiana da Rocha. "ADJUSTMENT OF PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS TO WATER EXCESS AND DEFICIT IN SOYBEANS CULTIVATED IN LOWLAND SOILS." IRRIGA 25, no. 2 (June 2, 2020): 402–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.15809/irriga.2020v25n2p402-419.
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ADJUSTMENT OF PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS TO WATER EXCESS AND DEFICIT IN SOYBEANS CULTIVATED IN LOWLAND SOILS
MATEUS POSSEBON BORTOLUZZI¹; ARNO BERNARDO HELDWEIN²; ROBERTO TRENTIN³; ASTOR HENRIQUE NIED²; JOCÉLIA ROSA DA SILVA4 E LEIDIANA DA ROCHA4
1 Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, Universidade de Passo Fundo, BR 285, São José, 99052-900, Passo Fundo, RS, Brasil. mateusbortoluzzi@upf.br
2 Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Avenida Roraima, n° 1000, Camobi, 97010-900, Santa Maria, RS, Brasil. heldweinab@smail.ufsm.br; astor.nied@ufsm.br
3Departmento de Fitotecnia, UFPel, Campus Universitário, s/n, 96010-610, Capão do Leão, RS, Brasil. roberto.trentin@ufpel.edu.br
4 Programa de Pós-graduação em Agronomia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Avenida Roraima, n° 1000, Camobi, 97010-900, Santa Maria, RS, Brasil. joceliarosa.s@gmail.com; leidi-r1@hotmail.com
1 ABSTRACT
The objective of this study was to verify the fit of exponential, gamma, lognormal, normal and weibull probability density functions (pdf) to water deficit and excess accumulated data during soybean subperiods and development cycle. Historical series of meteorological data obtained from Pelotas and Santa Maria meteorological stations (RS) were utilized. The soybean development simulation was performed for cultivars from the relative maturity group (RMG) between 5.9-6.8, 6.9-7.3 and 7.4-8.0 on eleven sowing dates from September 21 to December 31. Daily sequential water balance was calculated with water excess (days) and water deficit (mm) data to adjust each pdf to the observed data. The better adjustment frequency for water excess data in the soybean cycle was obtained with normal pdf in Santa Maria and weibull and gamma in Pelotas. Regardless of the location, the lognormal pdf presented the best fit for the water deficit data in the soybean cycle. In both locations, normal and weibull pdf demonstrated the best performance for water excess in the subperiods gamma, lognormal and exponential pdf for the water deficit.
Keywords: Glycine max, risk analysis, sowing date, historical series.
BORTOLUZZI, M. P.; HELDWEIN, A. B.; TRENTIN, R.; NIED, A. H.; DA SILVA, J. R.; DA ROCHA, L.
AJUSTE DE FUNÇÕES DE PROBABILIDADE AO EXCESSO E DÉFICIT HÍDRICO NA SOJA EM TERRAS BAIXAS
2 RESUMO
O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar o ajuste das funções densidade de probabilidade (fdp) exponencial, gama, lognormal, normal e weibull aos dados de déficit e excesso hídrico, acumulados durante subperíodos e ciclo de desenvolvimento da soja. Foram utilizadas séries históricas de dados meteorológicos obtidos das estações meteorológicas de Pelotas e de Santa Maria, RS. Foi simulado o desenvolvimento da soja, para cultivares de grupo de maturidade relativa (GMR) entre 5.9–6.8, 6.9–7.3 e 7.4–8.0 em onze datas de semeadura compreendidas entre 21 de setembro e 31 de dezembro. Calculou-se o balanço hídrico sequencial diário, sendo obtidos os dados de excesso hídrico (dias) e déficit hídrico (mm) para ajustar cada fdp aos dados observados. A maior frequência de ajuste para os dados de excesso hídrico no ciclo da soja foi obtida para a fdp normal em Santa Maria e fdp weibull e gama para Pelotas. A fdp lognormal foi a que melhor se ajustou aos dados de déficit hídrico no ciclo da soja, independentemente do local. Em ambos os locais, a fdp normal e a weibull apresentaram o melhor desempenho para o excesso hídrico nos subperíodos e as fdps gama, lognormal e exponencial para o déficit hídrico.
Palavras-chave: Glycine max, análise de risco, data de semeadura, séries históricas.
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Arango Restrepo, Mariano. "Calculo económico y diferenciación demográfica en economía campesinas: los casos del oriente antioqueño, Córdoba y Sucre." Lecturas de Economía, no. 19 (March 24, 2011): 175–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n19a8080.
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• Resumen: El presente artículo confronta algunas importantes teorías sobre las economías campesinas con los resultados de dos investigaciones realizados en las regiones campesinas del Oriente antioqueño, Córdoba y Sucre, donde se encuestaron respectivamente 616, 385 y 404 unidades de producción. Estas resultaron con más de un 800% del valor de su producción integrada al mercado e impregnadas por relaciones salariales, ante todo por razones estacionales, en todos los rangos de tamaño, pero sin que esto eliminara su condición de economías campesinas. A consecuencia de lo anterior, los productores toman sus decisiones económicas sobre el aumento de unos cultivos y reducción de otros con base en sus cuotas de ganancia y no de acuerdo con sus precios de costo. Esta forma de cálculo económico está condicionada por la diversificación de riesgos a través de policultivo, la ampliación de la explotación a medida que aumenta su tamaño y el compromiso de sólo una parte pequeña del patrimonio con el crédito adquirido. Asimismo, se encontró cierto grado de diferenciación demográfica en estas explotaciones campesinas. • Abstract: This article considers various theories about peasant economies in the light of two studies in the regions of Oriente antioqueño, Córdoba and Sucre. These studies found more than eighty percent of the value of production integrated into the market and salary oriented without vitiating the truly peasant nature of these economies. Producers were found to make decisions about future levels of production on the basis of relative profitability not on costs. To some extent this general finding has to be modified allow for diversification of risk, with lot size and with levels of indebtedness. There were also some important demographic factors.
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Wang, Jun, Yuanyuan Mi, Sheng Wu, Hongbao Shao, Lijie Zhu, and Feng Dai. "Impact Factors and an Efficient Nomogram for Predicting the Occurrence of Sepsis after Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy." BioMed Research International 2020 (December 22, 2020): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6081768.
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Introduction. To describe the clinical parameters of urinary stones and investigate the preoperative predictors of sepsis in patients following percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). Patients and Methods. A retrospective study of patients who underwent PCNL between August 2017 and December 2019 was performed. The patients were divided into the sepsis and nonsepsis groups according to whether they had sepsis, and their data were compared for further analysis. Results. Fifteen (6.1%) patients matching in age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and the number of access variables were included in the sepsis group. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that the staghorn calculi (OR: 12.206, P < 0.001 ) and positive midstream urine culture (OR: 16.505, P < 0.001 ) were independent risk factors of sepsis, while preoperative renal fistula (OR: 0.122, P < 0.001 ) was a protective factor of sepsis. The three factors were ultimately selected to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of sepsis. The new nomogram was well calibrated and had higher diagnostic accuracy (the area under the curve: 0.916). Conclusions. Our study reveals that patients with complex stones and positive bacteriuria are associated with a significantly high risk of sepsis after surgery. The removal of obstruction before operation under certain conditions might be a reliable protective factor of sepsis.
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Vitale, Antonio, Giancarlo Mauri, and Claudio Zandron. "Simulation of a bounded symport/antiport P system with Brane calculi." Biosystems 91, no. 3 (March 2008): 558–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystems.2007.01.008.
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Li, Jianxing, Bo Xiao, Weiguo Hu, Bo Yang, Liang Chen, Hao Hu, and Xiaofeng Wang. "Complication and safety of ultrasound guided percutaneous nephrolithotomy in 8 025 cases in China." Chinese Medical Journal 127, no. 24 (December 20, 2014): 4184–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.issn.0366-6999.20141447.
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Background Percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) was mostly performed with fluoroscopy and/or ultrasonography. The safety and feasibility of PCNL performed totally under ultrasound are not clearly defined. Therefore, we introduce the 9-year experience of 8 025 ultrasound guided PCNL procedures from multiple centers in China performed by the same surgeon, to evaluate the feasibility and security of this technique. Methods From September 2004 to August 2013, 8 025 cases, 4 398 males (54.8%) and 3 627 females (45.2%), whose age ranged from 6 months to 85 years old, with upper urinary tract stones, underwent PCNL in our center and the supported hospitals. Puncture site selection and channel dilation were all guided using only Doppler ultrasound. Single stones were treated in 1 356 cases, there were 2 817 cases of multi stones, and 3 852 cases of staghorn calculi. The pre- and post-operative imaging data, the intraoperative findings, operation time, perioperative complications, and related parameters were recorded. Results All procedures were successful. No patients died during the operation. Average operation time was 42 minutes (range 10 to 168 minutes), 4 cases converted to open surgery, and 2 patients lost the diseased kidney due to refractory bleeding in the early stage of the PCNL. Ninety-four (1.2%) patients received blood transfusions and 20 (0.25%) patients needed highly selective renal artery embolization. Fifteen (0.19%) patients had a pleural injury. 5 457 (68%) cases were completed by a single tract and 2 568 (32%) cases added more tracts. The mean stone size (longest diameter) was 2.8 cm (range 1.2 to 26.5 cm). The final stone-free rate was 85.5%. Residual stones occurred mainly in patients with renal dysfunction, medullary sponge kidney, and complete staghorn calculi with a slim calyceal neck. Conclusions X-ray free Doppler ultrasound guided percutaneous nephrolithotomy is feasible and safe in a variety of cases of renal and/or upper ureteral stones. The probability of radiation hazard and adjacent organ injury is low. The morbidity from major complications was reduced remarkably after special training. It is worthy of wider use compared with fluoroscopy in patients with special kidneys (e.g. solitary kidney, spinal deformity, ectopic kidney) and in infants.
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Ng, Ronald H., Mani Menon, and Jack H. Ladenson. "Collection and Handling of 24-Hour Urine Specimens for Measurement of Analytes Related to Renal Calculi." Clinical Chemistry 31, no. 2 (February 1, 1985): 308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/clinchem/31.2.308.
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Abstract Vol. 30 p 468: In line 7, left column, HCl should be 12 mol/L. p 536: In Figs. 4 and 5, change the unit on the ordinates to "%." Change the ordinate numbers on Fig. 4 from 0, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 to 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25. On Fig. 5, change the ordinate number from 120 to 30. p 725: In line 8, right column, change "logarithmic probability," to "probit." In Figs. 2 and 3, replace the terms "log 10" and "double log" by "probit" and "simple log," respectively. p 729: Insert "γ" in the empty space on line 23, right-hand column, so the expression reads "100(1 – γ)%." pp 856–7: Exchange the legends for Figures 2 and 3. p 1111: Units in the left-hand Table should be "µg/L," not "g/L." p 1260: In the first column, just under equation 2, delete "β" and insert the words "for a." p 1294: In paragraph three, line 6, for "blunted" read "blunt." p 1353: Transpose Figures 2 and 3 over the (unchanged) legends. 0.53 1.02 2.71 5.0 p 1364: The sixth line of data, columns 2–4 should read "176.4 ± 43," "470 ± 198," and "0.5." The final line of data, columns 2–4, should read "1.95 ± 0.47," "5.05 ± 2.12," and "0.4," and, under "Range" the following should be inserted at the bottom of the column: 0.4–0.7 0.2–0.8 0.1–0.7. p 1365: The data in columns 2 and 4, and some in column 3, of Table 3 should read: See table in the PDF file p 1429: The middle column, next to last paragraph, should read: "Hb 27 g/L" and "leukocytes 186 x 109/L." p 1812: Column 1, fifth line of text: change "decreasing" to "increasing." p 1813: Column 2, x refers to whole blood rather than plasma, y to plasma.