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1
Bélanger, Éric, and Jean-François Godbout. "Forecasting Canadian Federal Elections." PS: Political Science & Politics 43, no. 04 (October 2010): 691–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096510001113.
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AbstractIn recent decades, the scientific forecasting of election outcomes has made great strides in a number of advanced industrial democracies. One country that has not received much attention to date is Canada. In this article, we present a vote function model to forecast Canadian federal elections. We explain our model's theoretical underpinnings and assess its statistical properties and forecasting capabilities against all federal elections held between 1953 and 2008. We then explore potential ways for improving the model's accuracy. We conclude by discussing the forecast of different hypothetical scenarios for an upcoming federal election.
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McGregor, R. Michael, and Cameron D. Anderson. "The Effects of Elections Canada's Campaign Period Advertising." Canadian Journal of Political Science 47, no. 4 (November 28, 2014): 813–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423914001061.
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AbstractVoter participation is widely viewed as invaluable by democratic theorists, and a large majority of members of the Canadian public believe that low turnout weakens Canadian democracy. In response to decreasing rates of turnout in federal elections, Elections Canada has run advertising campaigns during the last several election campaigns encouraging Canadians to participate by voting. Using Election Canadian Study data from 2006 and 2008, this note examines the effect of Elections Canada's advertisements upon turnout and the partisan outcome of elections. Results reveal that the ad campaigns have effects upon both factors. The ads increase turnout among segments of the population with traditionally low turnout rates and are associated with an overall decrease in the Conservative party's vote share.
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Patterson, Steven Thomas. "Cross-Level Partisanship in Concurrent Federal-Provincial Elections:." Federalism-E 20, no. 1 (April 17, 2019): 1–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.24908/fede.v20i1.12828.
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The purpose of this project is to explore the following research question: do same day (i.e. concurrent) provincial-federal elections exhibit a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than non-concurrent elections? This paper proposes that concurrent elections lead to a convergence in voters evaluations of federal-provincial co-partisans, and that this results in a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than in non-concurrent elections. Using 2011 Canada Election Studies (CES) data on federal party vote choice and provincial party preference, this paper will project the results of concurrent federal-provincial elections for three Canadian provinces. The results of these projected concurrent elections will be compared to actual party vote shares received in the first provincial election held following the 2011 Canadian federal election. The comparison of these data will be used to test the hypothesis that concurrent elections have a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than non-concurrent elections.
This paper consists of five sections. First, I introduce the aims of this research and discuss its theoretical and substantive significance by referencing relevant literature. Second, a comprehensive theoretical framework is developed to explain why cross-level partisanship is expected to be higher in a concurrent election. Third, I outline the research design and methodology used to test this causal hypothesis. Fourth, I report and interpret my findings which show that overall cross-level partisanship was slightly higher in projected concurrent elections. I conclude by discussing the implications and limits of this study.
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Studlar, Donley T. "Canadian Exceptionalism: Explaining Differences over Time in Provincial and Federal Voter Turnout." Canadian Journal of Political Science 34, no. 2 (June 2001): 299–319. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423901777918.
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Canada is unusual among advanced industrial democracies in having some provinces which regularly have greater voter turnouts for provincial than for federal elections. Provincial and federal turnouts by province in Canada are analyzed for the 1945-1998 period using multiple regression analysis, both for each set of elections and by comparing differences between the two. Federal turnout has declined over the years but provincial turnout appears to have increased slightly. Although the effects found here largely confirm previous findings about the relative effects of different types of variables found for the Canadian federal level only, several of the political explanations previously supported in cross-national research find less support. Instead, region, population density, months since the last federal or provincial election, and season of the year generally have greater and sometimes more consistent effects. This suggests the need for more studies of turnout in democracies at sub-central levels.
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Allen Stevens, Benjamin, Md Mujahedul Islam, Roosmarijn de Geus, Jonah Goldberg, John R. McAndrews, Alex Mierke-Zatwarnicki, Peter John Loewen, and Daniel Rubenson. "Local Candidate Effects in Canadian Elections." Canadian Journal of Political Science 52, no. 1 (August 28, 2018): 83–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423918000367.
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AbstractWhat impact do local candidates have on elections in single member district plurality electoral systems? We provide new evidence using data from a large election study carried out during the 2015 Canadian federal election. We improve on the measurement of local candidate effects by asking over 20,000 survey respondents to rate the candidates in their constituency directly. We present three estimates. We find that when all voters are considered together, local candidate evaluations are decisive for approximately 4 per cent of voters. Second, these evaluations are decisive for the outcome of 10 per cent of constituency contests. Third, when models are estimated for each constituency, we find significant evaluation effects for 14 per cent of candidates.
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Rekkas, Marie. "Gender and Elections: An Examination of the 2006 Canadian Federal Election." Canadian Journal of Political Science 41, no. 4 (December 2008): 987–1001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423908081134.
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Abstract. The existing literature on gender effects in the electoral process offers little evidence of significant gender vote share differentials. In this paper it is shown that for the 2006 Canadian federal election, once candidate campaign spending is introduced into the model with appropriate flexibility in the vote share responsiveness across genders, significant differences are found to exist between male and female candidates. The findings suggest that, for equal levels of spending, male incumbents have a vote share advantage relative to female incumbents, though this vote share advantage is found to diminish with increased expenditures. Female non-incumbent candidates, on the other hand, have a vote share advantage over male non-incumbent candidates for higher levels of expenditure and this advantage was found to increase with increased expenditures.Résumé. Les écrits traitant des effets du genre dans le processus électoral offrent peu de preuves d'un écart significatif dans le pourcentage des voix selon le genre. Cet article montrera que, dans le contexte des élections fédérales canadiennes de 2006, une fois que les dépenses de campagne des candidats sont introduites dans le modèle avec la flexibilité adéquate sur la réceptivité du pourcentage des voix selon les genres, on découvre que des différences significatives existent entre les candidats masculins et féminins. Le résultat des recherches montre que pour des dépenses équivalentes, les titulaires masculins ont un avantage sur le pourcentage des voix par rapport aux titulaires de sexe féminin bien qu'il s'avère que cet avantage diminue lorsque les dépenses augmentent. D'autre part, les candidates féminines non-titulaires ont un avantage sur le pourcentage des voix par rapport aux candidats masculins non-titulaires quand les dépenses sont plus élevées et cet avantage s'avère augmenter lorsque les dépenses augmentent.
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Tsurkan, Anna. "Elections in Canada and Russia in 2019: a comparative analysis of cross-national media coverage." Canadian Journal of European and Russian Studies 14, no. 1 (April 15, 2021): 55–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.22215/cjers.v14i1.2667.
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In 2019, Canada and Russia went through election campaigns in their respective countries. While Canada voted at the federal level, Russia held regional and municipal elections, and therefore the scale and outcome of these two campaigns cannot be compared per se. Yet shifting a focus to media coverage, this paper explores Canada-Russia relations at a given moment in time, including the extent to which disinformation took place on either side. The two countries were actively involved in cross-commenting about the situation on the ground. Russian English-language media outlets were visibly more anti-Trudeau in nature in their Canadian election coverage, while Canadian authorities called on their Russiancounterparts to respect freedoms of assembly during pre-election opposition rallies in Moscow. However, in a modern highly interconnected world, where should the border between news reporting/tweeting and an attempt to interfere in elections be located; and how do these efforts advance each country’s interests?
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Krashinsky, Michael, and William J. Milne. "The Effect of Incumbency in the 1984 Federal and 1985 Ontario Elections." Canadian Journal of Political Science 19, no. 2 (June 1986): 337–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423900054056.
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AbstractThis note extends the authors' earlier work on incumbency in Canadian federal and Ontario provincial elections by examining riding by riding results in the 1984 federal and 1985 Ontario provincial elections. In particular, the authors test their earlier hypothesis that incumbency effects are swamped by large shifts in voter preferences. The results indicate that incumbency had a significant impact, and that this impact was not reduced by the large shift in votes in the 1984 federal election. The authors reject the hypothesis that large shifts in party allegiance reduce incumbency effects.
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Smith, Seeon. "Universe of Support: Suburban Voters in Canadian Federal Elections." Political Science Undergraduate Review 5, no. 1 (April 1, 2020): 25–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.29173/psur145.
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This chapter reviews the position of suburban voters within Canadian federal elections. In response to the impression that federal elections are won and lost in the greater Toronto area I ask - how do suburban voters factor into the campaign strategies of political parties? I examine the significance of suburban voters, emphasizing those in Toronto, as a contested demographic. I draw attention to the allocation of campaign resources through analysis of the 2019 party leader tours of the Liberals, Conservatives, and New Democrats. This is supplemented by an analysis of party platforms from 2008, 2011, 2015, and 2019 as a measure of campaign marketing. In doing so, I seek to address the nature of Canadian elections and normatively reflect on the consequences of this nature.
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Happy, J. R. "Economic Performance and Retrospective Voting in Canadian Federal Elections." Canadian Journal of Political Science 22, no. 2 (June 1989): 377–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423900001359.
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AbstractThis study examines the retrospective economic voting model for Canadian federal elections, 1930 through 1979. The analysis shows that change in personal or disposable income has a significant, direct impact on incumbency voting while inflation enters the voting calculus indirectly, as a (partial) deflator of nominal income, and unemployment has no effect. Disposable income is a better predictor of incumbency voting than is personal income, nominal income variables predict better than real values and variability in income performance is negatively related to incumbency voting. The study concludes that voter attribution of responsibility for income performance is focussed and specific, income stability as well as income growth are demanded through incumbency voting, and voters are affected by money illusion.
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Carmichael, Calum M. "Economic Conditions and the Popularity of the Incumbent Party in Canada." Canadian Journal of Political Science 23, no. 4 (December 1990): 713–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423900020813.
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AbstractThis study measures the effects of macroeconomic conditions upon the popularity of the incumbent party in Canadian federal general elections from 1945 to 1988. In so doing it uses a model similar to the retrospective voting models used in electoral studies in the United States. The results suggest that for the elections from 1945 to 1972, bad economic conditions preceding the election benefited the incumbent party. For the elections from 1974 to 1988, these effects were diminished or reversed. Such results have precedents in separate studies that use Canadian poll data. However, they contradict the general conclusion of American studies that bad conditions hurt the incumbent. This contradiction suggests that the model's assumptions about voting behaviour, which appear to be verified by the American studies, do not apply universally.
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Sevi, Semra. "Who Runs? Canadian Federal and Ontario Provincial Candidates from 1867 to 2019." Canadian Journal of Political Science 54, no. 2 (March 10, 2021): 471–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423920001213.
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AbstractWho runs and is elected is one of the most fundamental questions in political science as it pertains to the issue of descriptive representation. Despite the importance of this issue, until recently there were no longitudinal datasets on candidates in Canadian elections. This article presents two novel datasets including information on all candidates who ran in Canadian federal and Ontario provincial elections from 1867 to 2019. I present how these data were collected and how they can be used to gain new insights. I expect these data will be a valuable resource to Canadian political scientists for both research and teaching purposes.
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Cutler, Fred. "Local Economies, Local Policy Impacts and Federal Electoral Behaviour in Canada." Canadian Journal of Political Science 35, no. 2 (June 2002): 347–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000842390277827x.
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The fortunes of local, regional and provincial economies have often been linked to geographical variation in electoral outcomes, and nowhere more so than in Canada. This article examines economic localism in Canadian voting behaviour by estimating a model of voters' decisions in the 1993 and 1997 federal elections. Individual-specific determinants of the vote measured in the Canadian Election Study are supplemented by measures of voters' local economies and of the local impacts of policy changes. Voters punish the federal government for bad times in their locale and for policy changes that hurt the local economy. This effect is independent of what voters think about their own finances and about the provincial and national economies. The electoral impact of the local economy does not depend on whether government is acknowledged as a potent economic actor, or on the voter's level of political information. However, the relevance of the local economy for national-level electoral behaviour can be "primed" by campaign events, just like any other criterion of voting choice. The response to local economic conditions is part of a broader explanation for geographic patterns of electoral support in Canada.
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Black, Jerome H. "The 2006 and 2008 Canadian Federal Elections and Minority MPs." Canadian Ethnic Studies 41, no. 1-2 (2009): 69–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/ces.2009.0006.
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Nadeau, Richard. "L'effet lune de miel dans un contexte parlementaire: le cas canadien." Canadian Journal of Political Science 23, no. 3 (September 1990): 483–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423900012725.
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AbstractAmerican presidents have enjoyed a significant boost of their popular support early after their election. This article examines the existence of this same honeymoon phenomenon in the context of Canadian federal elections since 1945. The study shows that the above-mentioned phenomenon exists in Canada, identifies the circumstances more conducive to producing it and tries to demonstrate that it mostly results from a majority effect. In conclusion, it is suggested that the gain in political resources due to the honeymoon effect could be beneficial to the government's legislative performance.
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Eagles, Munroe. "The Effectiveness of Local Campaign Spending in the 1993 and 1997 Federal Elections in Canada." Canadian Journal of Political Science 37, no. 1 (March 2004): 117–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423904040065.
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Recent studies of the effects of campaign spending by political parties and candidates at elections in Canada and elsewhere have established the importance of local constituency campaigns. However, particular claims to measure the effects of campaign spending on the vote have been questioned on methodological grounds. This article revisits the question of whether local spending matters in Canadian federal elections. Responding to some criticisms of earlier work, this analysis presents the results of two parallel regression analyses (the first employing two–stage least squares estimation, the second using three–stage least squares techniques) of the effects of local spending in the 1993 and 1997 elections. The results offer strong confirmation that comparatively greater local spending by candidates enhances their vote shares, and diminishes that of rivals, albeit to different degrees for different parties and elections.
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Nadeau, Richard, and André Blais. "Explaining Election Outcomes in Canada: Economy and Politics." Canadian Journal of Political Science 26, no. 4 (December 1993): 775–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423900000470.
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AbstractThe article proposes a simple model to explain election outcomes in Canadian federal elections. The model hypothesizes that the share of the vote obtained by the Liberal party depends on deviations from the average rate of unemployment, inflation and income growth, and on the presence or absence of a party leader from Quebec. The results confirm the hypotheses regarding the impact of unemployment and party leader, but inflation and income growth prove to be nonsignificant. The evidence also suggests that the model may be less satisfactory for elections involving governments that had been in place for less than a year (1958 and 1980).
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Nakhaie, M. Reza. "Electoral Participation in Municipal, Provincial and Federal Elections in Canada." Canadian Journal of Political Science 39, no. 2 (June 2006): 363–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000842390606015x.
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Abstract.The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of social relations or social capital for voting turnout at three levels of Canadian government, paying particular attention to social contexts, socio-demographics and socio-economic forces. The data source is the Public Use Microdata File from theNational Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participation, administered by Statistics Canada (2001). Results provide support for social capital theory. Those who donate to charities and/or volunteer have a stronger propensity to vote than their counterparts. Two other measures of social capital, social networks and participation in religious activities, are also related to turnout. However, their effects are comparatively modest. Among the social bases of social capital, community rootedness is an important predictor of turnout. Civic engagement or attentiveness to current affairs also significantly increases voter turnout at all levels of Canadian government. Finally, standard socio-economic and demographic predictors of political participation do show independent effects on turnout. However, with the exception of age, these predictors are not as consistent or as strong as social capital measures in explaining turnout. Theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed.Résumé.L'objectif de cette étude est de souligner l'importance des relations sociales ou “ capital social ” en ce qui concerne la participation aux élections municipales, provinciales et fédérales au Canada, en prêtant une attention particulière aux contextes sociaux et aux forces socio-démographiques et socio-économiques. Nos données proviennent du fichier de microdonnées à grande diffusion del'Enquête nationale sur le don, le bénévolat et la participation, administré par Statistique Canada (2001). Les résultats vérifient la théorie du capital social. Les gens qui font des dons aux organismes de bienfaisance ou font du bénévolat ont une tendance plus marquée à voter que les autres. Deux autres mesures de capital social, l'appartenance à des réseaux sociaux et la participation à des activités religieuses, ont aussi une corrélation positive avec la participation électorale. Leur impact est cependant relativement limité. Parmi les composantes du capital social, l'enracinement dans la communauté est un indicateur important de participation. L'engagement dans la vie civique ou un intérêt marqué pour les affaires courantes augmentent aussi d'une façon significative la participation aux élections à tous les niveaux gouvernementaux. Finalement, il s'avère que les variables explicatives socio-économiques et démographiques standard de la participation politique ont des effets indépendants sur le vote. Toutefois, à l'exception de l'âge, ces variables ne sont ni aussi constantes ni aussi déterminantes que les mesures du capital social pour expliquer la participation. Nous discutons dans cet article les implications théoriques et politiques de nos conclusions.
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Polacko, Matthew. "Party Positions, Income Inequality, and Voter Turnout in Canada, 1984-2015." American Behavioral Scientist 64, no. 9 (July 22, 2020): 1324–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002764220941238.
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Scholars have focused on the relationship between income inequality and voter turnout cross-nationally and within the United States. However, rising inequality and declining turnout has afflicted Canada to a greater extent than most other Western countries. As turnout in Canadian federal elections began to decline appreciably in the 1990s, inequality began to rise. With multilevel pooled analysis utilizing Canadian Election Studies from 1984 to 2015, party manifesto data, and measures of inequality at the subnational level, this article tests the effects of income inequality on turnout in Canada, and whether the relationship is conditioned by party policy programs. In line with relative power theory, mixed-effects regressions indicate that inequality is negatively associated with turnout, especially for low-income earners. However, latent conflict is manifested when political parties propose greater redistribution, as the negative effects of inequality on turnout are then significantly alleviated.
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Uslaner, Eric M. "Looking Forward and Looking Backward: Prospective and Retrospective Voting in the 1980 Federal Elections in Canada." British Journal of Political Science 19, no. 4 (October 1989): 495–513. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400005603.
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Theories of voting have distinguished between prospective and retrospective evaluations of political parties. However, not only may both factors be at work in an election, but they may also be complementary. The 1980 Canadian federal elections were, according to most accounts, both a retrospective and a prospective referendum on the energy issue. However, previous examinations of this election have failed to show any mandate emerging from the contest. This re-analysis of election data from that contest, shows that both prospective and retrospective evaluations mattered, above and beyond the quality of leadership in the country. Moreover, the pattern of voting strongly suggests an elite-led pattern of issue concerns akin to that suggested by the ‘two-step flow of communications’. Those with the strongest pattern of issue concerns voted prospect-ively, while less committed partisans cast their ballots retrospectively.
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Krashinsky, Michael, and William J. Milne. "Additional Evidence on the Effect of Incumbency in Canadian Elections." Canadian Journal of Political Science 18, no. 1 (March 1985): 155–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423900029267.
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AbstractThis work extends the authors' earlier work on incumbency by examining, riding by riding, results in 10federal elections from 1926 to 1980. Regression results indicate that incumbency generally had a significant impact, and between 1957 and 1980 incumbency was worth about four points for the Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats, and significantly more for the Social Credit. The results vary and seem to be smaller than those observed in Ontario provincial elections, but this may be due to the greater instability in federal politics, since general shifts in party allegiance seem to reduce incumbency effects.
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Walks, R. Alan. "The City-Suburban Cleavage in Canadian Federal Politics." Canadian Journal of Political Science 38, no. 2 (June 2005): 383–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423905030842.
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Abstract.Despite increasing speculation and attention, as of yet insufficient empirical research has been conducted on the possibility of a political cleavage based on differences between Canadian inner cities and suburbs. This article sheds light on the potential existence of such differences by analyzing federal elections at the level of the constituency from 1945 to 1997. Results show that city-suburban differences in federal party voting did not become significant until the 1980s, and increased after this point, with inner-city residents remaining to the left of the rest of Canada in their party preferences while suburbanites shifted increasingly to the right in their voting patterns. The results obtained from regression analysis suggest that such a divergence cannot be reduced solely to differences in social composition, housing tenure, or region, and thus confirm that it constitutes a ‘true’ political cleavage. It is argued that intra-urban geography needs to taken into account in future analyses of Canadian political behaviour.Résumé.Malgré un intérêt croissant pour la question, il existe encore peu de recherches empiriques sur un possible clivage politique dont les fondements seraient les différences entre les quartiers urbains centraux et les banlieues. Cet article jette un nouvel éclairage sur l'existence possible de ces différences à partir d'une analyse des résultats électoraux dans les circonscriptions fédérales entre 1945 et 1997. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que les différences entre le vote pour les partis politiques fédéraux ne sont devenues significatives que pendant les années 1980, mais qu'elles se sont exacerbées par la suite, les résidents de quartiers centraux demeurant à la gauche de l'échiquier politique tandis que les banlieues votaient de plus en plus à droite. Les résultats de l'analyse de régression suggèrent que ces différences ne sont pas seulement attribuables à la composition sociale, au taux de propriété, ou encore à la région, et constituent par le fait même un “ véritable ” clivage politique. L'auteur conclut que l'analyse géographique intra-urbaine devra être prise en compte dans les analyses futures du comportement politique Canadien.
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Wilkins-Laflamme, Sarah. "The Changing Religious Cleavage in Canadians' Voting Behaviour." Canadian Journal of Political Science 49, no. 3 (September 2016): 499–518. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423916000834.
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AbstractPast studies have shown that religion plays an important role in voting behaviour in Canada. Yet, little is known about the changes this religious vote has undergone over the past few decades. Using Canadian Election Studies data, we analyze the evolving impact of religious affiliation and level of religiosity on vote choice in federal elections between 1965 and 2011. We find that, as the marginal impact of Catholic and mainline Protestant traditions has declined, the effect of level of religiosity has gained in importance. In 2011, religious citizens were overall more likely to vote Conservative and secular individuals were more likely to vote NDP both in Quebec and in the rest of Canada. Some distinct voting patterns also remain for non-mainline Protestant groups in the ROC and religious nones in Quebec.
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Carbonaro, Elisa. "Picture That: Canada’s 2015 Federal Campaign Through Instagram Images." Political Science Undergraduate Review 1, no. 2 (February 15, 2016): 23–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.29173/psur16.
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Social media is changing the landscape of elections. It opens a new sphere for politicians and political parties to connect with citizens. Now more than ever before we are seeing our political leaders turning to social networking sites in order to campaign and disseminate information, and the Canadian 2015 federal election was a prime example of this. All three major party leaders took to social media as a campaign tactic, but how these leaders make use of social media images has gone relatively unexamined. In this research study I ask what are the common theme(s) evident in all three major party leaders’ Instagram feeds during the 2015 election campaign? And a sub-question derived from this asks: what sorts of latent campaign tactics are suggested by these themes? In order to answer these questions I use a mixed-method approach, both a visual content analysis and discourse analysis are employed using a small sample extrapolated from Instagram. In summation, two major themes are apparent in all three leaders’ Instagram pages: The Crowd Pleaser and The Family Man, both of which have underlining political agendas.
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Bélanger, Éric, and François Gélineau. "Does Perceived Competence Matter? Political Parties and Economic Voting in Canadian Federal Elections." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 20, no. 1 (January 27, 2010): 83–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457280903450757.
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Davidson, Adrienne M., R. Michael McGregor, and Myer Siemiatycky. "Gender, Race and Political Ambition: The Case of Ontario School Board Elections." Canadian Journal of Political Science 53, no. 2 (April 6, 2020): 461–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423919001057.
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AbstractThe political underrepresentation of women and racial minorities in Canadian politics is well documented. One political arena that has yet to be examined in this respect, however, is school boards. Using data from a candidate survey conducted during the course of the 2018 Ontario school board elections, as well as demographic data collected on the entire population of school board candidates, we explore the unique characteristics of school board elections. The research note begins by describing the gender and racial composition of candidates and trustees in Canada's most populous province. It then considers the ways in which school board elections may serve as a launchpad to higher office for either of these two traditionally underrepresented groups, as we explore the features of progressive political ambition, recruitment into school board campaigns and the relative electoral success of racialized candidates and women in this local office. While women do very well in school board elections, they are significantly less likely than their male counterparts to have the desire to move up to provincial or federal politics. Meanwhile, racialized candidates contest school board election in significant numbers and report similar levels of progressive ambition relative to their white counterparts, but they fare exceptionally poorly in school board elections.
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Wilkins-Laflamme, Sarah, and Sam Reimer. "Religion and Grassroots Social Conservatism in Canada." Canadian Journal of Political Science 52, no. 4 (September 19, 2019): 865–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423919000544.
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AbstractWith a decisive Liberal party electoral victory in 2015, observers are now wondering if religious conservatism's role in the Canadian political landscape is waning. Using data from the Canadian Election Study (CES) from the years 2004 to 2015, we find that respondents’ attitudes toward same-sex marriage and women working outside the home have moved left on the spectrum among both the general population and more religious voters. However, this does not go hand in hand with a decline in the effect strength of religiosity on the Conservative vote, which remains significant across the five federal elections examined in this study. Conservative religious voters now make up a smaller share of the adult population, but their issue positions on sexual morals and gender roles, along with the wider conservative value orientation these issues represent, remain important in their vote choice.
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Suedfeld, Peter, Susan Bluck, Elizabeth J. Ballard, and Gloria Baker-Brown. "Canadian federal elections: Motive profiles and integrative complexity in political speeches and popular media." Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science/Revue canadienne des sciences du comportement 22, no. 1 (1990): 26–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/h0078936.
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Cutler, Fred. "Whodunnit? Voters and Responsibility in Canadian Federalism." Canadian Journal of Political Science 41, no. 3 (September 2008): 627–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423908080761.
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Abstract. Government accountability in Canada depends on Canadian voters' attributing responsibility to multiple levels of government for policy outcomes. This study presents the first comprehensive account of these responsibility judgments. The data are from panel surveys of voters in Ontario and Saskatchewan as they faced provincial elections in the fall of 2003 and then the federal election of 2004. Voters were asked about conditions in a number of policy areas and then asked to separately attribute responsibility to the two senior levels of government. Voters do not strongly differentiate the governments' roles and there is little variation across issues. Attentiveness to politics only very slightly improves the quality of responsibility attributions, and only on issues where responsibility is objectively clearer. The results suggest that federalism is a major challenge for Canadian voters wishing to reward or punish their governments for policy outcomes.Résumé. La responsabilisation gouvernementale au Canada dépend de la capacité du citoyen à différencier clairement les sphères d'activité des divers paliers de gouvernement. Cette étude offre, pour la première fois, un portrait exhaustif des mécanismes d'attribution de la responsabilité dans le système fédéral canadien. Les données sont tirées de deux enquêtes en panel réalisées durant les campagnes électorales provinciales de l'Ontario et de la Saskatchewan à l'automne 2003, puis durant la campagne fédérale de 2004. Deux aspects principaux de ces enquêtes ont été retenus pour cette étude. Tout d'abord, les répondants ont été interrogés sur leur perception de l'état des choses quant à une série d'enjeux de politique publique (économie, système de santé, et ainsi de suite). Ils ont ensuite dû attribuer la responsabilité de ces politiques aux deux paliers supérieurs de gouvernement au Canada. Il s'avère que les électeurs ne différencient que faiblement le rôle de chaque palier de gouvernement et ce, quel que soit l'enjeu. La capacité d'attribution de la responsabilité n'est que légèrement affectée par le niveau d'attention à la politique de l'électeur. Les résultats de l'analyse suggèrent que la nature fédérale du système politique canadien demeure un défi important à surmonter pour l'électeur qui désire récompenser ou punir ses gouvernements pour une politique publique donnée.
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Henderson, Ailsa. "Northern political culture?: Political behaviour in Nunavut." Études/Inuit/Studies 28, no. 1 (March 24, 2006): 133–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/012643ar.
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Abstract The realities of political life in Nunavut suggest that levels of political engagement would be lower than that found in southern Canada. The absence of political parties affects both the method of political campaigning and the operation of the legislature while the existence of Inuit birthright organizations provide a parallel system of governance and several more opportunities to vote and to stand for election. Levels of turnout are lower than average for federal elections and lower still for the birthright organizations. For territorial elections, however, turnout levels are much higher. An analysis of predictors of voting demonstrates that age, income and education have a positive impact on turnout. Inuit, and those with positive evaluations of the land claim and Nunavut, are also more likely to vote. In its investigation of political office, the paper also demonstrates that there are elected positions for 1% of the population in Nunavut, compared with .0075% in a typical Canadian community. The paper is the first to examine political behaviour in the North from a quantitative perspective and carefully points out methodological issues affecting the treatment of data. It ends by arguing that southern models of political behaviour should be treated with caution in Nunavut.
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Tellier, Geneviève. "Explaining Growth of Public Revenue: An Empirical Investigation of Canadian Provinces." Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice 27, no. 1 (April 1, 2009): 23–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1332/251569209x15664518847321.
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Abstract This paper looks at the determinants of public revenues. We conducted a cross-sectional time series empirical analysis to explain revenue variations observed in the ten Canadian provinces over the period 1967-2003. We tested whether party ideology, elections, globalization, the demographic structure of the population, the public debt, federal transfers and the tax burden influenced the size of provincial revenues. The findings support several hypotheses. Our results also show that the influence of some factors was not stable during the entire period.
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Pickup, Mark, and Richard Johnston. "Campaign trial heats as electoral information: Evidence from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian federal elections." Electoral Studies 26, no. 2 (June 2007): 460–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2007.03.001.
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Howlett, Michael. "Predictable and Unpredictable Policy Windows: Institutional and Exogenous Correlates of Canadian Federal Agenda-Setting." Canadian Journal of Political Science 31, no. 3 (September 1998): 495–524. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423900009100.
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AbstractThis article addresses the question of the applicability of John Kingdon's theory of agenda-setting to Canadian political life. It examines the extent to which agenda-setting in Canadian governments is routine or discretionary, predictable or unpredictable, and the extent to which it is influenced by events and activities external to itself. The study uses time series data collected on issue mentions related to Native affairs, the constitution, drug abuse, acid rain, the nuclear industry and capital punishment in parliamentary debates and committees between 1977 and 1992. It compares these series to other time series developed from media mentions, violent crime rates, unemployment rates, budget speeches and speeches from the throne, elections and first ministers' conferences over the same period in order to assess the impact of such events on public policy agenda-setting.
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Happy, J. R. "The Effect of Economic and Fiscal Performance on Incumbency Voting: The Canadian Case." British Journal of Political Science 22, no. 1 (January 1992): 117–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400000375.
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This study examines the effect of incorporating taxation into the incumbency voting model using aggregate economic data for Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 1988. Although Canadian election campaigns tend to be dominated by economic performance issues, taxation, as measured by open-ended questions in the national election studies, has not been a salient campaign issue among voters. None the less, voters as consumers in the market economy have an interest in government policies that affect after-tax income. Furthermore, as economic citizens, voters have an interest in taxation as a measure of government efficiency – the costs of providing public services – independent of benefits generated by government. Paralleling American and British results, the economic and fiscal performance variables behave as expected in the incumbency model. Income change has a positive effect, and the rate of inflation and unemployment a negative effect, on incumbency voting. The relationship between taxation and incumbency voting is negative, both through its effect on after-tax income and also directly, independent of income. The results are consistent with an interpretation which suggests that voters, responding to the public agenda for economic performance and to a private agenda for taxation, behave both as politic consumers and as economic citizens.
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Kerby, Matthew. "Combining the Hazards of Ministerial Appointment AND Ministerial Exit in the Canadian Federal Cabinet." Canadian Journal of Political Science 44, no. 3 (September 2011): 595–612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423911000485.
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Abstract. The Canadian federal cabinet stands out among Westminster parliamentary democracies because of the large number of first-time ministers who are appointed to cabinet without any previous parliamentary or political experience. Several explanations have been put forward to account for this peculiarity but no attempt has been made to examine how Canadian prime ministers overcome the information deficit associated with appointing ministers with no experience. How can prime ministers be confident that they are making the right choice? This paper explores the subject by estimating the survival functions of ministerial turnover for potential, but not yet appointed, cabinet ministers were they to survive to a defined political benchmark; these survival rates are included in a logit model of Canadian ministerial appointment following four general elections (1957, 1979, 1984 and 2006) in which the prime minister was tasked with appointing a cabinet with ministerial neophytes.Résumé. Le Conseil des ministres fédéral du Canada se démarque dans l'ensemble des démocraties parlementaires britanniques en raison du grand nombre de ministres novices qui sont nommés au Conseil alors qu'ils ne possèdent aucune expérience parlementaire ou politique antérieure. Plusieurs explications de cette anomalie ont été proposées, mais aucune démarche d'analyse ne s'est encore penchée sur la manière dont les premiers ministres du Canada arrivent à surmonter le manque d'information associé à la nomination de ministres sans expérience. Comment les premiers ministres peuvent-ils être certains d'avoir fait le bon choix? Cette étude scrute le sujet en évaluant le coefficient de survie, en cas de remaniement ministériel, pour les ministres du Conseil potentiels, mais pas encore mandatés, advenant que ces derniers survivent à certains jalons politiques précis. Ces taux de survie font partie intégrante d'un modèle de répartition des nominations ministérielles qui sont survenues à la suite de quatre élections générales (1957, 1979, 1984 et 2006) où le premier ministre a dû constituer un Conseil des ministres composé de néophytes.
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Bakvis, Herman, and Laura G. Macpherson. "Quebec Block Voting and the Canadian Electoral System." Canadian Journal of Political Science 28, no. 4 (December 1995): 659–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000842390001934x.
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AbstractThis article examines two contrasting views of Quebec block voting in federal elections. One view has it that the Quebec electorate tends to behave in a monolithic fashion; the other, put by Cairns in 1968, claims that this phenomenon is “a contrivance of the electoral system, not an autonomous social fact.” The evidence shows that block voting, namely, the degree to which an electorate mobilizes behind the largest party, is much more pronounced in Quebec than it is in other provinces, and especially when compared to that in Ontario. Quebec is also more likely than Ontario to determine which party forms the government. The tendency of the electoral system to magnify seat allocations to the largest party, however, is only marginally greater in Quebec relative to Ontario. At the same time, the composition of the Quebec “block” vote has varied considerably over time; it has not always been a distinctively francophone phenomenon. The article further challenges the assumption that the single-member plurality system is inherently inferior to proportional representation as a means of securing the protection of minorities in ethnically diverse societies.
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McCracken, Damian John. "Tailor-Made for Canada." Federalism-E 21, no. 2 (May 1, 2020): 12–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.24908/fede.v21i2.14074.
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While reform of Canada's electoral system has not yet occurred, it has been an ever-present, ever-potent topic in Canadian political science since the middle of the 20th Century. While there are aspects of First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) to be admired, its fundamental flaws cannot be ignored; the system encourages parties to exacerbate sectionalism, leaves far too many voters unrepresented, and too often allows for uncooperative governments. Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP), a form of Proportional Representation (PR), possesses the best aspect of FPTP, local representation and accountability, and amends its most serious flaws. MMP represents all votes cast, attenuates sectionalism, and creates diverse legislatures that incentivize cross-party cooperation far more than FPTP does currently. Canada is nearly a perfect country for MMP, and this system should be implemented for our federal elections.
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Sevi, Semra, Vincent Arel-Bundock, and André Blais. "Do Women Get Fewer Votes? No." Canadian Journal of Political Science 52, no. 1 (September 21, 2018): 201–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423918000495.
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AbstractWe study data on the gender of more than 21,000 unique candidates in all Canadian federal elections since 1921, when the first women ran for seats in Parliament. This large data set allows us to compute precise estimates of the difference in the electoral fortunes of men and women candidates. When accounting for party effects and time trends, we find that the difference between the vote shares of men and women is substantively negligible (±0.5 percentage point). This gender gap was larger in the 1920s (±2.5 percentage points), but it is now statistically indistinguishable from zero. Our results have important normative implications: political parties should recruit and promote more women candidates because they remain underrepresented in Canadian politics and because they do not suffer from a substantial electoral penalty.
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Gidengil, Elisabeth, and Joanna Everitt. "Conventional Coverage/Unconventional Politicians: Gender and Media Coverage of Canadian Leaders' Debates, 1993, 1997, 2000." Canadian Journal of Political Science 36, no. 3 (July 2003): 559–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423903778767.
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This article explores the implications for female politicians of the gendered nature of news coverage. An analysis of the language used in television news coverage of the English-language leaders' debates in the Canadian federal elections of 1993, 1997 and 2000 confirms that the debates are framed in stereotypically masculine ways as battles, sporting events or back street brawls. When the news coverage is compared with the leaders' actual behaviour in the debates, it is clear that the coverage focuses disproportionately on combative displays of behaviour by female party leaders, but tends to ignore the women when they adopt a more low-key style, especially when the novelty of a female leader has worn off.
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Johnston, Richard. "Alignment, Realignment, and Dealignment in Canada: The View From Above." Canadian Journal of Political Science 46, no. 2 (June 2013): 245–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423913000474.
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Abstract.The Canadian party system exhibits both “stable dealignment,” defined as directionless volatility and relative stability. But the boundary between the system's orderly and disorderly parts is not that clear in conventional wisdom, which contrasts big, inclusive parties with small parties representing ideas or interests. In fact, the relatively stable parties have been the NDP and the Liberals, in contrast to the Conservatives and a rotating cast of province- or region-specific insurgents. Volatility is a feature mainly of Quebec and the West and is greater in federal than in provincial elections. But geographic divergence is greater in provincial elections. The paper proposes a research program to account for Canada's coexistence of opposites.Résumé.Le système de partis politiques canadien présente à la fois un «désalignement stable», défini comme une volatilité sans direction, et une relative stabilité. Cependant, la frontière entre les parties ordonnées et désordonnées du système n'est pas stylisée comme le veut la sagesse populaire qui contraste grands partis inclusifs et petits partis représentant des idées ou des intérêts particuliers. En fait, ce sont le NPD et les libéraux qui représentent les partis relativement stables du système en opposition au Parti conservateur et à une série de partis « insurgés » spécifiques à une province ou à une région. La volatilité est quant à elle principalement une caractéristique du Québec et des provinces de l'Ouest tout en étant plus présente sur le plan fédéral que provincial. La divergence géographique est toutefois plus grande aux élections provinciales. Cet article propose donc un programme de recherche afin de mieux expliquer la coexistence de ces contraires au Canada.
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Umbers, Lachlan M. "Compulsory Voting: A Defence." British Journal of Political Science 50, no. 4 (December 27, 2018): 1307–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123418000303.
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AbstractTurnout is in decline in established democracies around the world. Where, in the mid-1800s, 70–80 percent of eligible voters regularly participated in US Presidential elections, turnout has averaged just 53.7 percent since 1972. Average turnout in general elections in the UK has fallen from 76.6 percent during the period 1945–92, to 64.7 percent since 1997. Average turnout in Canadian federal elections has fallen from 74.5 percent during the period 1940–79, to 62.5 percent since 2000. For most democrats, these numbers are a cause for alarm. Compulsory voting is amongst the most effective means of raising turnout. However, compulsory voting is also controversial. Most of us think that coercion may only be employed against the citizenry if it is backed by a justification of the right kind. Opponents of compulsory voting charge that no such justification is available. This article resists this line of argument in two ways. First, I offer an argument from free-riding which, though gestured towards by others, and widely criticized, has yet to be defended in any depth. Second, I consider a range of objections to compulsory voting as such, arguing that none succeeds.
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Lublin, David, and D. Stephen Voss. "Context and Francophone Support for the Sovereignty of Quebec: An Ecological Analysis." Canadian Journal of Political Science 35, no. 1 (March 2002): 75–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423902778189.
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New techniques of ecological inference are utilized to estimate with confidence intervals francophone support in each federal electoral district in Quebec for the pro-sovereignty side in the 1993 and 1997 Canadian general elections and the 1992 and 1995 referenda. Analyzing the link between demographic and political contextual variables and support for the sovereignty of Quebec suggests that demographic factors, such as the proportion of farmers and government workers, influence francophone voting behaviour more often than political factors such as incumbency. Unlike in many other countries with ethnically based movements, francophone support for sovereignty actually rises as the francophone portion of the population rises. This finding indicates that the contact hypothesis probably applies to the Quebec sovereignty movement.
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Bakvis, Herman. "Commissioned Ridings: Designing Canada's Electoral Districts. By John C. Courtney. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 2001. 337p. $75.00 cloth, $27.95 paper." American Political Science Review 96, no. 3 (September 2002): 655–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055402680360.
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The approach to the design and revision of electoral districts in Canada is quite different from that found in the United States, despite the two countries' sharing of the same basic first-past-the-post electoral system. As John Courtney notes in his careful study of the topic, in Canada the emphasis in defining electoral districts, or constituencies or ridings, has been underpinned by concepts such as “community of interest” and “effective representation,” which encompass a wide range of political and social considerations—many local in nature—and which permit substantial deviation from the principle of one person, one vote. At the federal level, the allowable deviation in the size of constituencies can be plus or minus 25% within any given province, with the possibility of even greater variances under special circumstances. At the level of provincial electoral systems, the variances can be even larger, in part due to the fact that in certain provinces the ratio of urban to rural seats is specified in law. At the same time, the actual process of designing and reconfiguring the boundaries of constituencies, in the hands of independent, arm's-length commissions for the past 40 years, has been remarkably free of direct partisan influence. In fact, given the rather tattered state of current Canadian parliamentary democracy, characterized by one-party dominance in the federal parliament and a precipitous decline in voter turnout over the past three elections, the institution of arms-length boundary commissions stands out as something that works well and enjoys broad respect.
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Gravelle, Timothy B. "Friends, Neighbours, Townspeople and Parties: Explaining Canadian Attitudes toward Muslims." Canadian Journal of Political Science 51, no. 3 (February 7, 2018): 643–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423917001470.
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AbstractThe 2015 Canadian federal election campaign put into focus relations between Muslim communities in Canada and wider Canadian society, featuring debates around banning the niqab, and a “barbaric cultural practices” hotline. At the same time, challenges in relations between Muslims and majority-group Canadians were not a new development in 2015: they had in the past faced periodic strains due to terrorism-related events, and attacks targeting Muslims in Canada. The Canadian case is in fact reflective of a challenge in intergroup relations facing several Western democracies. In light of this, what accounts for majority-group Canadians’ attitudes toward Muslims in Canada? Drawing on data from the 2011 and 2015 Canadian Election Studies and theories linking outgroup perceptions to intergroup contact (friends), local demographic context at both the micro-level (neighbours) and meso-level (townspeople), and political factors (parties), this article seeks to explain why majority-group Canadians hold alternately positive or negative views of Muslims.
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Loewen, Peter John, and Frédérick Bastien. "(In)Significant Elections? Federal By-elections in Canada, 1963–2008." Canadian Journal of Political Science 43, no. 1 (March 2010): 87–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000842390999076x.
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Abstract. Despite the development of electoral studies in Canada, by-elections have received little attention from researchers. We believe that these are important political events. This research note examines the 121 federal by-elections held between general elections from 1963 to 2008. Our analysis indicates that turnout in by-elections is driven by the larger societal determinants of turnout and not the characteristics of each race. We also find that the support of the government party in a by-election is affected by changes in national opinion towards the government, but only in the third-party system. We find that minor parties and independent candidates perform better in by-elections than in general elections. And we find no difference in the re-election rates of by-election winners and those who enter parliament through general elections.Résumé. Malgré le développement des études électorales au Canada, les élections partielles ont reçu très peu d'attention de la part des chercheurs. Nous croyons qu'il s'agit pourtant d'événements importants dans la vie politique canadienne. Cette note de recherche examine les 121 élections partielles fédérales survenues entre les élections générales de 1963 à 2008. Notre analyse indique que le taux de participation aux élections partielles est davantage influencé par des déterminants sociétaux que par des caractéristiques propres à chacune. Nous constatons aussi que les fluctuations de l'opinion publique canadienne à l'égard du gouvernement influençaient la performance du parti gouvernemental lors des élections partielles avant le réalignement partisan de 1993, mais que ce n'est plus le cas dans le système partisan actuel. Nous observons également que les petits partis et les candidats indépendants enregistrent de meilleures performances lors des élections partielles et qu'il n'y a pas, aux élections générales qui suivent, de différence notable entre le taux de réélection des gagnants aux élections partielles et celui des autres députés sortants.
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Marcotte, Philippe, and Frédérick Bastien. "L'influence du mode de financement des médias audiovisuels sur le cadrage des campagnes: le cas des élections canadiennes de 2005–2006 et 2008." Canadian Journal of Political Science 45, no. 2 (June 2012): 313–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423912000340.
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Résumé. Une analyse de contenu de la couverture médiatique des campagnes électorales fédérales 2005–2006 et 2008 par des réseaux de radio et de télévision de langue française montre un effet du financement des médias sur le mode de cadrage de la campagne et sur le ton, plus ou moins critique, que les journalistes adoptent vis-à-vis des politiciens et des partis politiques qu'ils couvrent. Ainsi, plus un média est imperméable à la concurrence, plus ses journalistes s'attardent à la couverture des enjeux et plus le ton de leur couverture est descriptif. Nous constatons aussi que c'est lorsqu'ils cadrent la campagne sous l'angle de la course et des stratégies que les journalistes sont les plus critiques à l'endroit des politiciens, par opposition au cadrage orienté vers les enjeux.Abstract. A content analysis of media coverage during the 2005–2006 and 2008 Canadian federal elections by French-language radio and television networks provides evidence of a significant impact of funding mode on campaign framing and journalists' tone towards politicians and political parties. The more a media outlet is shielded from market competition, the more likely are its journalists to frame the campaign through an issue schema and to feature a descriptive tone. We also present evidence that journalists are less descriptive as they cover the campaign through horse-race journalism rather than issue journalism.
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Keating, Michael. "The Canadian Federal Election of 1997." Scottish Affairs 21 (First Serie, no. 1 (November 1997): 17–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/scot.1997.0051.
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LeDuc, Lawrence. "The Canadian federal election of 1988." Electoral Studies 8, no. 2 (August 1989): 163–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(89)90033-4.
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LeDuc, Lawrence. "The Canadian federal election of 1993." Electoral Studies 13, no. 2 (June 1994): 163–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(94)90034-5.
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Uslaner, Eric M. "The Dimensions of Partisanship in Canada." American Review of Politics 13 (January 1, 1993): 445–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.1992.13.0.445-463.
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Canadians are said to have weaker partisanship than Americans. Most particularly, many Canadians identify with different parties at the federal and provincial level. To what extent does this dual identification form part of a syndrome of weak partisanship, as institutionalist theories of Canadian partisanship would suggest? LISREL modeling of attitudes toward parties in the 1974-1979 panel of the Canadian National Election Studies finds little support for such an institutionalist view. Instead, Canadians have complex schemata for evaluating parties. Dual identification forms a distinct dimension. There are four other factors: temporal stability for both party identification and voting behavior, the strength of identification at both the federal and provincial levels, and separate dimensions for federal and provincial partisanship. These results provide support for a cultural/historical account, especially given the distinctiveness of schemata for Quebec and British Columbia.