Academic literature on the topic 'Capital Campaign'

The purpose of this research is to improve understanding of how democratized video technology is changing the market for video communication during political campaigns. The same content analysis methodology was applied to United States senate campaign YouTube videos during both the 2006 election when YouTube first made its mark on politics and the 2016 election a decade later. The evidence does not support the theory that democratized video technology will produce new winners communicating in new ways about political campaigns. The 2016 election was marked by a slight increase in the proportion of repurposed television ads compared to the 2006 election. Over the course of its first decade, the market for political campaign communication on YouTube has increasingly struggled to attract investors of creative capital.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to probe how reward-based crowdfunding campaigns accomplish their goal by adopting the theoretical constructs of social capital dimensions: structural, cognitive and relational. Design/methodology/approach The approach used is a design model for concluded campaigns in a Mexican crowdfunding platform, which determines social capital from operating social networks (Facebook and Twitter). By using this model, the associations between the dimensions are revealed, verifying how social capital flourishes during the campaign and how it alters the campaign’s outcome. Findings The findings demonstrate how social interaction through a wide social network (structural dimension), shared vision and values among entrepreneurs and their potential funders (cognitive dimension), and the development of trustworthiness within the campaign (relational dimension) boost the probability of achieving the crowdfunding goal. Research limitations/implications The results inform researchers on how social capital is forged from social networks during a crowdfunding campaign. However, the method must be validated with other crowdfunding models and other social network platforms commonly used by campaign creators. Practical implications Contributions from this paper include tools (design model and evaluation method) associating theory with the crowdfunding mechanism, complementing previous work. Crowdfunding providers, as well as campaign creators, have now an approach to appraise social capital and obtain the desired goal. Originality/value In addition to providing much-needed research on the current state of crowdfunding, this paper analyzes the link between practice and theory, which can be valuable in confining the mechanism to an accurate theory and ensuring the theory’s longevity.

When charities launch capital campaigns, they hope to attract large amounts of resources in a relatively short period of time; however, other charities in the area are likely to see such campaigns as disruptive to the natural distribution of resources to area nonprofits by disproportionately directing area donations to a single organization. This study seeks to understand the effects capital campaigns have on both the fundraising performance of other nonprofits and the makeup of a local nonprofit ecology. The analysis uses data from a randomly sampled set of nonprofit arts organizations that had capital campaigns for facilities projects between 1994 and 2007 and Internal Revenue Service Form 990 data on 501 (c) (3) nonprofit organizations in each county. The results illustrate that a capital campaign positively affects the fundraising performance of other charities in a local nonprofit ecology, but that campaigns decrease the size of a local nonprofit ecology.

ABSTRACT We examine how charity financial information related to efficiency and financial vulnerability is used by private foundations in determining how much they grant to charities during capital campaigns. In general, private foundations are likely to be better able to evaluate charity financial information because they are sophisticated donors. They have the incentive to incur search costs, the ability to judge financial information, and are focused on grant-making. We find no evidence that efficiency measures are used by private foundations in determining capital campaign grant amounts, regardless of foundation sophistication. We interpret this result as being consistent with private foundations focusing on factors related to program accomplishments rather than on reported efficiency. We find evidence that private foundations pay larger grant amounts to less financially vulnerable charities. This effect is concentrated when grants are paid by more sophisticated private foundations (i.e., those that employ a professional staff). Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

Corporate governance mechanisms, such as transparency, accounting standards, responsibility, accountability, fairness, business ethics, efficient shareholder controls, and ownership rights are key tools in combating corruption. This paper investigates on a firm-level basis the relation between corporate governance practices and campaign finance in Brazil. We interpret campaign finance as a proxy for political influence by interest groups. Our results indicate that family-owned firms contribute significantly more for political campaigns, both in terms of proportion of firms and total amount spent to finance the candidates. Higher concentration of capital and the separation of ownership and control are positively related to campaign donations, while better corporate governance is negatively related to political contributions.

This thesis is an account of the campaign to abolish the death penalty for murder in Britain from the mid 1950s to the late 1960s. It examines the campaign and the debate that it generated from a very broad perspective. It looks briefly at the history of capital punishment in this country so as to set the campaign in context. It focuses on the chief pressure group set up to lobby for abolition, the National Campaign for the Abolition of Capital Punishment (NCACP), and examines in detail its motivation, activities, strategy and influence. It examines the high politics of the campaign; the role played by government and opposition and the interplay between them, and scrutinizes the Parliamentary debates. It examines the role of the main political parties and their internal conflicts, both structurally between front bench, backbench and grassroots membership, and ideologically between pro and anti-hangers and examines the way in which the configuration of opinion within the parties affected the controversy. It looks at the debate within the framework of the other 'conscience' issue campaigns of the time in order to see what light this casts upon the process of pressure group activity and policy change.

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Investigamos os efeitos de aumentos na expectativa de vida e de melhorias na saúde sobre investimento em capital humano, oferta de trabalho e decisões de fecundidade. Nossa principal motivação provém da predição da teoria de capital humano de que uma vida mais longa e saudável encoraja investimentos em educação e participação feminina no mercado de trabalho, ao mesmo tempo em que desencoraja fecundidade. Para avaliar a magnitude desses efeitos, exploramos a campanha nacional contra doença de Chagas no Brasil como fonte exógena de diminuição na mortalidade adulta e de melhorias nas condições de saúde. Mostramos que, em relação a áreas não endêmicas, regiões previamente endêmicas tiveram aumentos maiores no investimento educacional, medido por taxa de alfabetização, matrícula escolar e anos de escolaridade, após a campanha. Adicionalmente, encontramos aumentos na participação na força de trabalho em áreas de alta prevalência em relação às de baixa prevalência. Ademais, estimamos um efeito substancialmente maior na participação feminina no mercado de trabalho em relação à masculina, sugerindo que ganhos de longevidade e melhorias na saúde alteram os incentivos de mulheres para trabalhar, encorajando-as a entrar na força de trabalho. Não identificamos efeitos significantes em decisões de fecundidade.
We investigate the effects of augmented life expectancy and health improvements on human capital investment, labor supply and fertility decisions. Our main motivation is the prediction of human capital theory that a longer and healthier life encourages educational investment and female labor force participation, while discouraging fertility. To assess the magnitude of these effects, we explore a national campaign against Chagas disease in Brazil as an exogenous source of adult mortality decline and improvement in health conditions. We show that, relative to non-endemic areas, previously endemic regions saw higher increases in educational investment, measured by literacy, school attendance and years of schooling, following the campaign. Additionally, we find that labor force participation increased in high prevalence areas relative to low prevalence ones. Furthermore, we estimate a substantially higher effect on female labor force participation relative to male, suggesting that longevity gains and health improvements affected women's incentives to work, encouraging women to join the labor force. We do not find significant effects on fertility decisions.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--George Mason University, 2007.
Title from PDF t.p. (viewed Jan. 21, 2008). Thesis director: Agnieszka Paczynska Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Conflict Analysis and Resolution. Vita: p. 375. Includes bibliographical references (p. 350-374). Also available in print.

Scholars and political candidates have frequently viewed online political participation as a weaker and less meaningful form of political involvement than traditional, offline activities. This thesis presents an overview of the literature on political participation and the Internet in order to understand the origins of this view and why participation on social media may be uniquely meaningful in comparison with other Internet-based activities. Examination of social media using Resource Theory and Social Identity Theory justify this unique status by highlighting and rationalizing social media's exceptional capacity to build and maintain weak-tie networks while also generating an intimacy between constituents and candidates. Social Identity Theory also provides an argument for the potential of social media for reaching and mobilizing first-time participants through its capacity to passively reach and attract constituents for non-political, personal and identity-serving reasons. This thesis then shows how social media-enable first-time participants may be more inclined to continue and expanding their participation over time, thereby substantially affecting participation trends in the United States. Using case studies composed of qualitative data collected on candidate views of the Internet and social media in U.S. House campaigns, this thesis examines the state of Web campaigning in 2010 in comparison to the theoretically "archetypal" Web campaign in order to provide indications of whether the prescribed theoretical activities deliver meaningful citizen engagement and valuable returns to campaigns.
Master of Arts

Feasibility studies are invaluable resources for strategic planning and capital campaign preparation for nonprofit organizations. As nonprofits operate on stringent budgets, they must utilize resources that will expand efficiency while meeting their goals. By engaging in a feasibility study, nonprofits gain valuable information about their organization and how they are perceived. This information can help diminish external factors that may harm the nonprofit. With the passing of the recent tax bill in December 2017, charitable giving is expected to decrease across the country. This could hamstring nonprofits. By explaining the negative implications of the tax bill, I present a pressing threat that nonprofits may need to address by using as many resources as possible to avoid a financial burden. Through a series of interviews with several Southern California based arts professionals, I find supporting information promoting feasibility studies and strategic planning while exploring the fear the new tax bill represents.

O propósito desta dissertação consiste em verificar quais seriam as consequências das conexões políticas estabelecidas por algumas empresas de capital aberto no Brasil no que se refere a seu desempenho e acesso a crédito concedido pelo BNDES. O conceito de conexão política é amplo, mas as empresas de capital aberto que fizeram parte da amostra utilizada no trabalho buscam se aproximar do governo de duas maneiras: (i) inserindo em seu conselho de administração membros que atuem (ou que já atuaram) no governo, visando estabelecer um ponto de contato com o Estado, ou ainda, (ii) realizando doações às campanhas políticas brasileiras. Para realizar a análise proposta, utilizaram-se dados do conselho de administração das empresas listadas na BM&F Bovespa no período de 2010 a 2013, informações sobre doações de pessoas jurídicas às campanhas políticas realizadas em 2002, 2006 e 2010, juntamente com outros dados extraídos das demonstrações financeiras das companhias contempladas na amostra. Os testes de regressão múltipla com dados em painel não revelaram significância estatística entre as variáveis de estudo e os indicadores de desempenho e de acesso a crédito concedido pelo BNDES. Embora não conclusivos, os resultados apresentados acrescentam à literatura das conexões políticas motivando a realização de trabalhos futuros que objetivem testar outras hipóteses capazes de explicar quais são os motivos que levam as empresas no Brasil a estabelecerem conexões com o Estado.
The purpose of this dissertation consists in verifying the consequences of political connections established by some Brazilian public companies with respect to their performance and access to credit granted by the BNDES. The concept of political connection is broad, but the public companies used in our sample aim to approach themselves to the government by two means: (i) electing a member of the board of directors that works, or has a history in working in the government, or (ii) donating money to political campaigns. In order to accomplish this analysis, we collected data of the board of directors from public companies listed on the BM&F Bovespa during the period of 2010 to 2013, information on political donations made by companies in Brazil along the years of 2002, 2006 and 2010, as well as data extracted from the sample companies\' financial statements. The multiple regression tests ran with panel data showed no statistical relation between the main variables and the performance indicator or the variable that measures company\'s access to loans provided by BNDES. Although inconclusive, the presented results add to the literature motivating further studies that can test other hypotheses able to explain the reasons that induce companies to establish political connections.

This chapter examines black women’s national politics in the 1920s. For years, African American women had been organizing in their churches, mutual benefit associations, the Phyllis Wheatley Young Women’s Christian Association, and clubs. The ratification of the Nineteenth Amendment and pending presidential election in 1920 inspired women to connect their existing alliances with partisan causes. Black women seized on their location in the nation’s capital to advocate on behalf of African Americans living across the country. Black women across the city formed eight, distinctive political organizations, using them as instruments to lobby for economic justice, protest southern disfranchisement, express opinions about Supreme Court nominations, and weight in on which monuments and memorials would grace the national mall. While elite and middle-class women dominated the leadership of most political organizations, the National Association of Wage Earners attracted a working-class membership through its unique recruitment strategies and mission of economic justice.

Abstract Vaca Muerta is an unconventional reservoir located in Argentina. Since 2014, 397 horizontal wells have been drilled in this formation. The scope of this paper is to summarize the evolution of the productivity and the economics of these wells from 2014 until 2020. The methodology consisted in analyzing the results of the wells grouped by drilling campaign extracting the main parameters such as peak oil rate, cumulative oil at 365 days, number of fracture stages and length of the drain. After the extraction of these parameters we calculated each well's EUR using a modified hyperbolic function. A statistical analysis of the results was performed in order to calculate a "Type Well" for each drilling campaign. An economic evaluation for each campaign was then generated in order determine the "Type Well" economics. Once this was achieved we calculated the production profile of an "Economic Type Well" for each campaign defining this as the well which would generate an NPV=0$ at a discount rate of 10%. This was used to determine how many wells were economical for each year. The results of this study show the big impact on the productivity generated by the increase in well length and the number of frac stages revealing the progression of the "Learning curve" for the Vaca Muerta basin including the reduction in Capital Expenditures per well. At present, Vaca Muerta represents an opportunity as a profitable play due to the high productivity of the reservoir and low risk. Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement in the wells' cost according to the results of this study. This paper presents the evolution of the economics and the risk performance of Vaca Muerta.

When transiting to and from the field, disconnectable FPSOs have an open moonpool inside the turret where the buoy is normally situated. Inside the turret are a number of internal components designed to interface with the buoy. These components represent a large capital investment and are critical to FPSO operation. During adverse weather conditions, there is a potential for large hydrodynamic loads on these components due to wave action and the vessel’s seakeeping response. Deriving realistic design values for this equipment can be challenging due to the complex nature of the fluid dynamics inside the turret. This paper describes a unique model test campaign undertaken for a cyclonic region FPSO. It details the findings of using a highly detailed turret model to verify hydrodynamic design loads. Results about the turret’s natural modes are discussed. Correlation between the hydrodynamic loads inside the turret with the vessel’s seakeeping response is also investigated. The influence of draft and forward speed with respect to the hydrodynamic loading is presented. Based on observations made during the test campaign, the worst loading case is likely to occur during the initial transit to site. A possible mitigation method was investigated in the form of a temporary cover plate, effectively closing off the moonpool.

ABSTRACT In a cost-sensitive market driven by depressed commodity prices, significant capital challenges exist for operators interested in pursuing exploration activities in remote environments to define their producible reserves. This paper explores the organizational and operational model developed by a service company over several remote area mobilizations; this model resulted in an optimized low-cost service delivery model characterized by top quartile operational key performance indicators (KPIs). The model centralizes critical functions of an operational organization into discrete service units that are located near the operational location or that provide remote assistance with communication and reporting lines in place to function effectively. Top quartile operational performance and tool availability is a result of placing a remote repair and maintenance facility that includes containerized specialty modules near the operational area. The upfront bottomhole assembly engineering, 24/7 monitoring, and proactive feedback of logged data, drillstring dynamics, and wellbore hydraulics are performed by a core team of subject matter experts in their respective disciplines from an established centralized operating center. The operational KPIs over the course of the six well exploration campaign provided substantial evidence to support the reliability of the model and the high level of experience used in both the remote maintenance facility and the operations center support team.

Abstract This paper presents the methodology used by the Offshore Business Unit of Heritage Petroleum Company Limited (HPCL), to reorganize its future development portfolio. This methodology enabled us to re-organize and rank future projects in order of 1) Developability, 2) Subsurface, Drilling, Flow Assurance and HSSE risks, 3) Financial indicators such as CAPEX and $/BOE, as an approach to maximizing return on investment whilst maintaining the stated goals of the company of monetizing our oil reserves and resources. Following the incorporation of HPCL, the organization attempted to embark on a production stabilization and growth strategy but faced challenges regarding financial and human resource allocation as well as understanding project development best suited for the mature 70 year kit it currently operates. There was a sizable Forward Drilling Campaign (FDP) that remained to be executed from the Legacy company, but there was a need to determine how best to proceed with it. The question was how can we optimize this FDP to attain Heritage’s goals in the short and near term. The answer resided in holding a Pre-Appraisal workshop. A Pre-Appraise Level-1 workshop was held analyzing risk and uncertainty for all future drilling projects. Key to understanding and quantifying inherent risks and opportunities was the presence of a full multidisciplinary team, which included subsurface, facilities, drilling, finance, planning and HSSE personnel. This approach yielded a list of future opportunities that best fit HPCL’s debt-to-capital ratio or debt service coverage position. It also helped to identify projects better suited for joint venture or external capital expenditure options. This workshop resulted in upper management having clear line-of sight regarding the project portfolio, and resource assignment. Once the projects were ranked and grouped, the process of calculating the associated investment to capitalize production across the entire lifecycle was undertaken. A matrix showing Dollar/BOE vs. Project Risk was then built for the new growth strategy. This tool allowed HPCL to select those opportunities that required minimum investment coupled with low HSSE risks. The Pre-Appraise Level-1 workshop guided HPCL to initiate the Shallow Forest Main Field re-development and the East Field drilling development projects as developments to undertake with least risk. The Main Field Shallow Forest Development requires the lowest CAPEX (Drilling and Facilities) and is capital efficient. The proved to non-proven reserves ratio is small (0.05) indicating a high developable remaining resource which will be accessible through secondary or tertiary methods. This approach to understanding development portfolios is new within HPCL; although it has been tried and tested by many operators worldwide when reviewing their capital projects. The Shallow Forest Main Field development carries a low risk profile and is being managed using the Capital Value Process. This project is now in the appraise stage.

Abstract A review of the utilization of Drilling Equipment highlighted an opportunity to lower operational cost for the Operator, reduce Capital Employed for the Service Company, and reduce industry Scope 1 CO2 emissions. The Operator and the Oilfield Services Company set the objective of developing a risk-based probability model that could be used to assess the positive and negative financial impacts of reducing, or perhaps entirely removing, the need for backup drilling tools in the historically risk-averse UK North Sea. The scope of the analysis was to be a drilling campaign on a single rig contracted by the Operator (Rig A). The last three years of Drilling tool reliability data from North Sea operations, as recorded by the Drilling Service Provider, were used as an input. To assess the probability of failure, a Binomial Model was developed to create a Binomial Distribution for each tool, before determining the probability of failure of a given drilling string. The method calculates the probability of having 0 to X failures for a selected Drilling tool/string for a given number of runs. Three Binomial Models were developed to analyze the effect of "Easy", "Moderate" and "Challenging" drilling environments on drilling tool reliability. A financial risk model was developed that balanced the probability-weighted cost of failure for the Operator against the lower costs resulting from reduced tool provision by the Service Provider. In order to better estimate the risks and financial impacts on the project, Sensitivity Analysis was performed on the financial risk model using the three Binomial Models. Scope 1 CO2 emission reductions result from fewer logistical movements and diminished backup tool manufacturing requirements. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that recent improvements in tool reliability support a reduction in backup Drilling tools for the majority of North Sea drilling scenarios, meeting the objective of reducing well construction cost while lowering carbon footprint. Open discussions, focused on maximizing economic hydrocarbon recovery, reducing costs for the Operator, improving Return on Capital Employed for the Oilfield Services Provider and reducing Scope 1 CO2 emissions, resulted in a commercial model that could deliver a Win-Win scenario for all parties. It was observed that the approach was scalable, and would deliver further benefit from a broader workscope, generating "network" benefits when applied to a cluster of rigs, and/or an entire play/basin. In addition, the risk model can be applied to alternative industry scenarios where strong reliability data exist.

With the extension of the offshore drilling operations to water depths of 10,000 ft and beyond, the technical challenges involved also increased considerably. In this context, the management of the riser integrity through the application of computational simulations is capital to a safe and successful operation — particularly in harsh environments. One of the main challenges associated with keeping the system under safe limits is the recoil behavior in case of a disconnection from the well. The risk that an emergency disconnect procedure can take place during the campaign is imminent, either due to failure of the dynamic positioning system or due to extreme weather in such environments. Recent work [1] in the field of drilling riser dynamic analysis has shown that the recoil behavior of the riser after a disconnection from the bottom can be one of the main drivers of the level of top tension applied. Tension fluctuations can be very large as the vessel heaves, especially in ultra-deep waters where the average level of top tension is already very high. In order to be successful, a safe disconnection must ensure that the applied top tension is sufficient for the Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) to lift over the Blow-Out Preventer (BOP) with no risk of interference between the two. This tension should also not exceed a range in which the riser will not buckle due to its own recoil, that the telescopic joint will not collapse and transfer undesirable loads onto the drilling rig or that the tensioning lines will not compress. A good representation of such behavior in computational simulations is therefore very relevant to planning of the drilling campaign. A case study is presented herein, in which a recoil analysis was performed for a water depth of 11,483ft (3,500m). Numerical simulations using a finite element based methodology are applied for solving the transient problem of the riser disconnection in the time domain using a regular wave approach. A detailed hydro-pneumatic tensioning system model is incorporated to properly capture the effect of the anti-recoil valve closure and tension variations relevant during the disconnection. A reduction of conservativism is applied for the regular wave approach, where the maximum vessel heave likely to happen in every 50 waves is applied instead of the usual maximum in 1000 waves approach. ISO/TR 13624-2 [4] states that using the most probable maximum heave in 1000 waves is considered very conservative, as the event of the disconnection takes place in a very short period of time. The challenges inherent to such an extreme site are presented and conclusions are drawn on the influence of the overall level of top tension in the recoil behavior.

Classical Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) procurement approach has been practiced in the indus-try with the typical process of setting a quantity level of tubulars ahead of the drilling project, includ-ing contingencies, and delivery to a storage location close to the drilling site. The total cost of owner-ship for a drilling campaign can be reduced in the range of 10-30% related to tubulars across the en-tire supply chain. In recent decades, the strategy of OCTG supply has seen an improvement resulting in significant cost savings by employing the integrated tubular supply chain management. Such method integrates the demand and supply planning of OCTG of several wells in a drilling project and synergize the infor-mation between the pipes manufacturer and drilling operators to optimize the deliveries, minimizing inventory levels and safety stocks. While the capital cost of carrying the inventory of OCTG can be reduced by avoiding the procurement of substantial volume upfront for the entire project, several hidden costs by carrying this inventory can also be minimized. These include storage costs, maintenance costs, and costs associated to stock obsolescence. Digital technologies also simplify the tasks related to the traceability of the tubulars since the release of the pipes from the manufacturing facility to the rig floor. Health, Safety, and Environmental (HSE) risks associated to pipe movements on the rig can be minimized. Pipe-by-pipe traceability provides pipes’ history and their properties on demand. Digitalization of the process has proven to simplify back end administrative tasks. The paper reviews the OCTG supply methods and lays out tangible improvement factors by employ-ing an alternative scheme as discussed in the paper. It also provides an insight on potential cost savings based on the observed and calculated experiences from several operations in the Asia Pacific region.

Abstract The Flameless Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (FPO) cycle, a novel flexible fuel technology, is being developed into a large pilot. This effort seeks to complete the preliminary engineering and planning of a 25 MWth Pilot Plant that will demonstrate the technology for scale-up to a commercial unit. The technology, pioneered by ITEA at the 5 MWth scale, must be brought to a higher technology readiness level (TRL) to be viable at the commercial scale. The 25 MWth pilot cycle was optimized for cost and technology development and demonstration. Preliminary drawings, layouts, and plans were defined. Process flow diagrams were used to describe the pilot configuration in greater detail. A heat and mass balance with stream data was created. A master equipment list specified the operating conditions for major pieces of equipment within the pilot using this heat and mass balance. The 25 MWth FPO pilot is assessed for environmental performance. A test campaign is developed to assess the type of test and number of hours required for pilot demonstration. The environmental performance is compared against projected performance at the commercial scale. This project builds upon extensive evaluation of the techno-economic performance of the FPO technology already performed by ITEA. This includes system improvements, such as the addition of a turbo-expander to the flue gas stream. Some of the performance-enhancing components are not as well defined as others. The primary goal of this effort was to bring all of the core cycle components to the same level of design maturity. A techno-economic assessment (TEA) evaluated the FPO technology at the commercial scale in comparison to the NETL baseline cases. The reference plants were used in combination with proprietary equipment estimates to build a plant capital cost and cost of electricity evaluation. FPO performed better than the sub-bituminous post-combustion capture cases. Further preliminary estimates of improvements to the FPO cycle show even further gains when compared to conventional carbon capture methods.

While production and markets have been becoming more integrated since barriers to the international trade reduced, capital movements and the speed of spreading of technology increased with the progress of globalization, issues regarding to agriculture, environment, women, employment, and education became more critical. In this research, “by which functions and missions can agricultural cooperatives sustain their assets under globalized conditions” is the major research question. In the research, 19 cooperatives were chosen among 308 cooperatives, depending on their distance to Kastamonu, foundation year, and the amount of member. Subjects were determined by their traits and occupations. 164 subjects were interviewed via survey questions in 2014-2015. In research, “The situation-specific approach” model, developed by Hartmut Albrecht was applied. Because of the progress of change in organizational values, agriculture cooperatives have to undertake new functions in addition to maintaining agricultural production. The functions can be classified into 4 categories as socio-economic (taking local goods to international markets, recording incomes in the agriculture sector, and creating new employment positions to reduce migration to urban), international relations (developing new projects toward internationalizing to collaborate with other cooperatives), planning (making long-term strategic plans), and education (training women in rural areas, and obtaining their collaboration in cooperative campaigns, and educating future's cooperative managers).

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.