Academic literature on the topic 'Capital structure decisions'

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Journal articles on the topic "Capital structure decisions"

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Norton, Edgar. "Factors Affecting Capital Structure Decisions." Financial Review 26, no. 3 (August 1991): 431–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.1991.tb00389.x.

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Cagli, Efe Caglar, Elif Korkmaz, and M. Banu Durukan. "Does sentiment affect capital structure decisions." Pressacademia 7, no. 4 (December 30, 2018): 340–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2018.994.

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SERFLING, MATTHEW. "Firing Costs and Capital Structure Decisions." Journal of Finance 71, no. 5 (September 14, 2016): 2239–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12403.

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Hackbarth, Dirk. "Managerial Traits and Capital Structure Decisions." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, no. 4 (December 2008): 843–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002210900001437x.

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AbstractThis article incorporates well-documented managerial traits into a tradeoff model of capital structure to study their impact on corporate financial policy and firm value. Optimistic and/or overconfident managers choose higher debt levels and issue new debt more often but need not follow a pecking order. The model also surprisingly uncovers that these managerial traits can play a positive role. Biased managers' higher debt levels restrain them from diverting funds, which increases firm value by reducing this manager-shareholder conflict. Although higher debt levels delay investment, mildly biased managers' investment decisions can increase firm value by reducing this bondholder-shareholder conflict.
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BERGER, PHILIP G., ELI OFEK, and DAVID L. YERMACK. "Managerial Entrenchment and Capital Structure Decisions." Journal of Finance 52, no. 4 (September 1997): 1411–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb01115.x.

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Nolan, D. "Capital structure and short-term decisions." Oxford Economic Papers 54, no. 3 (July 1, 2002): 470–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/54.3.470.

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Inderst, Roman, and Holger M. Mueller. "Bank capital structure and credit decisions." Journal of Financial Intermediation 17, no. 3 (July 2008): 295–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2008.02.006.

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Alkhamis, Nora, Umara Noreen, Lara Ghonaim, Sarah Ibrahim Salih Alghonaim, and Reem Abdullah A. Alturki. "Capital Budgeting and Capital Structure Decisions in Saudi Arabia." Advanced Science Letters 23, no. 1 (January 1, 2017): 330–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1166/asl.2017.7174.

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Abor, Joshua, and Nicholas Biekpe. "Does board characteristics affect the capital structure decisions of Ghanaian SMEs?" Corporate Ownership and Control 4, no. 1 (2006): 113–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv4i1p9.

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The issue of corporate governance has been a growing area of management research especially among large and listed firms. However, less attention has been paid in the area with respect to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This current study explores the link between corporate board characteristics the capital structure decision of SMEs. The paper specifically assesses how the adoption of corporate governance structures among Ghanaian SMEs influences their financing decisions by examining the relationship between corporate governance characteristics and capital structure using an appropriate regression model. The results show negative association between capital structure and board size. Positive relationships between capital structure and board composition, board skills, and CEO duality are, however, found. The control variables in the model show signs which are consistent with standard capital structure theories. The results generally suggest that SMEs pursue lower debt policy with larger board size. Interestingly, SMEs with higher percentage of outside directors, highly qualified board members and one-tier board system rather employ more debt. It is clear, from the study, that corporate governance structures influence the financing decisions of Ghanaian SMEs.
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Graham, John, and Campbell Harvey. "HOW DO CFOs MAKE CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS?" Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 15, no. 1 (March 2002): 8–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2002.tb00337.x.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Capital structure decisions"

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Serfling, Matthew. "Firing Costs and Capital Structure Decisions." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/555889.

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I explore the passage of wrongful discharge laws by U.S. state courts that allow workers to sue employers for unjust dismissal as an exogenous increase in employee firing costs. I find that firms reduce debt ratios following the adoption of these laws, and this result is strongest for subsamples of firms that experience larger increases in expected firing costs. Following the passage of these laws, firms also increase cash holdings, firms save more cash out of cash flows, and investors place a higher value on each additional dollar of cash holdings. Overall, my results indicate that employee firing costs can have an important impact on corporate financial policy decisions.
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Schauten, Maximilien Bernard Joseph. "Valuation capital structure decisions and the cost of capital /." Rotterdam, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/13480.

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Stefanescu, Irina Shivdasani Anil. "Capital structure decisions and corporate pension plans." Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2006. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,383.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2006.
Title from electronic title page (viewed Oct. 10, 2007). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Kenan Flagler Business School (Finance)." Discipline: Business Administration; Department/School: Business School, Kenan-Flagler.
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Yick, Ho-yin, and 易浩然. "Tax asymmetry, investment decisions and capital structure." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B4098798X.

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Yick, Ho-yin. "Tax asymmetry, investment decisions and capital structure." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2008. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B4098798X.

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Silva, Carlos Afonso Bi França e. "The hidden value behind capital structure decisions." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9476.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
I estimate the optimal capital structure for a growth company, for which market value is dictated by its highly volatile nature. I study the welfare impact of corporate taxes, analyzing their economic effect of inducing higher bankruptcy levels. Assuming that management always seeks to optimize the market value of company’s assets, I find a significant loss of value that varies negatively with volatility. Flow and stock insolvency are important for the maximization of capital structure, and I compare both, modeling the value of the company as an option on its revenues. These are not only highly significant for R&D and startup companies but also have significant welfare consequences. I compare the options of liquidation and re-financing and find a clearly important role of early liquidation for R&D frameworks. I complement the study with a comparative statics analysis estimating the impact of risk to the value of the firm and the optimal capital structure decision, for a cross-section of firms. The results present quantitative evidence that reinforce the literature of trade-off and capital structure applied to growth companies.
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Harijono, 1970. "Capital structure decisions of Australian family controlled firms." Monash University, Dept. of Accounting and Finance, 2005. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/5133.

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Kaplan, Alan S. "Essays on financing decisions redemption features and the joint capital structure/debt maturity decision /." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0022/NQ39276.pdf.

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Hazak, Aaro. "Capital structure and dividend decisions under distributed profit taxation /." Tallinn : TUT Press, 2008. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/568785215.pdf.

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Chekanskiy, Sergey A. "The effect of macroeconomic factors on capital structure decisions." View electronic thesis (PDF), 2009. http://dl.uncw.edu/etd/2009-3/r1/chekanskiys/sergeychekanskiy.pdf.

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Books on the topic "Capital structure decisions"

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Agarwal, Yamini, ed. Capital Structure Decisions. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119199144.

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Löyttyniemi, Timo. Essays on corporate capital structure decisions. Helsinki: Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration, 1991.

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Baker, H. Kent, and Gerald S. Martin. Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.

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Hart, Oliver. Capital structure decisions of a public company. Rome: Banca d'Italia, 1994.

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Hart, Oliver D. Capital structure decisions of a public company. [Roma]: Banca d'Italia, 1994.

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Robb, Alicia M. The capital structure decisions of new firms. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010.

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Love, Roger. Industry effects on the capital structure decisions of Australian companies. Victoria, Australia: Syme Dept. of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, 1996.

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Hazak, Aaro. Capital structure and dividend decisions under distributed profit taxation. Tallinn: Tallinn University of Technology Press, 2008.

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Harris, John Rees. How financial liberalization in Indonesia affected firms' capital structure and investment decisions. Washington, DC (1818 H St. NW, Washington 20433): Country Economics Dept., World Bank, 1992.

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Bierman, Harold. The capital structure decision. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2003.

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Book chapters on the topic "Capital structure decisions"

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Jain, P. K., Shveta Singh, and Surendra Singh Yadav. "Capital Structure Decisions." In Financial Management Practices, 77–158. India: Springer India, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-0990-4_3.

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Walters, David, and Michael Halliday. "Capital Structure Decisions." In Marketing and Financial Management, 296–307. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-20931-2_10.

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Bierman, Harold. "Capital Structure and Capital Budgeting Decisions." In The Capital Structure Decision, 115–35. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1037-6_8.

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Baker, H. Kent, and Gerald S. Martin. "Capital Structure: An Overview." In Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions, 1–14. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.ch1.

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Muradoǧlu, Yaz Gülnur, and Sheeja Sivaprasad. "Capital Structure and Returns." In Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions, 75–92. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.ch5.

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Douglas, Alan Victor Scott. "Capital Structure and Compensation." In Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions, 93–109. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.ch6.

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Bessler, Wolfgang, Wolfgang Drobetz, and Robin Kazemieh. "Factors Affecting Capital Structure Decisions." In Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions, 15–40. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.ch2.

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La Rocca, Maurizio. "Capital Structure and Corporate Strategy." In Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions, 41–58. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.ch3.

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Dimitrov, Valentin. "Capital Structure and Firm Risk." In Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions, 59–73. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.ch4.

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Cotei, Carmen, and Joseph Farhat. "Worldwide Patterns in Capital Structure." In Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions, 111–26. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118266250.ch7.

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Conference papers on the topic "Capital structure decisions"

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Ege, İlhan, and Tuğba Nur Topaloğlu. "Effects of Ownership Structure on Capital Structure and Divident Decisions: Case of Borsa Istanbul 30 Index." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01946.

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Ownership structure is one of the main dimensions of corporate governance and is widely seen to be determined by other country-level corporate governance characteristics such as the development of the stock market and the nature of state intervention and regulation. Most ownership structure research focuses on relationship between ownership structure and firm performance. This paper investigates the effects of ownership structure on capital structure and divident decisions. In this study observed that ownership structure of firms in Borsa Istanbul 30 Index. Data of this firms collected from Borsa Istanbul web page. Period of data is between 2007 and 2015. Panel regression method is used for analyzing the effects of ownership structure on capital structure and divident decisions. As a result of this study we find statistically significant nonrelationship between ownership structure and both capital structure and divident decision.
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Md Kassim, Aza Azlina, Zuaini Ishak, and Nor Aziah Abdul Manaf. "Board Process and Capital Structure Decisions in Malaysian Companies." In Annual International Conference on Accounting and Finance. Global Science & Technology Forum (GSTF), 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.5176/978-981-08-8957-9_af-012.

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Mugisha, Raissa, and Christine aneza. "CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS IN COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS IN RWANDA." In 16th African Real Estate Society Conference. African Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/afres2016_128.

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"Thin Market, Managerial Entrenchment and Capital Structure Decisions of Asian REITs." In 18th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference: ERES Conference 2011. ERES, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2011_295.

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Bouchouicha, Ranoua, Alexey Zhukovskiy, and Heidi Falkenbach. "Leverage and types of debt in the Listed Real Estate Companies' capital structure decisions." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2016_147.

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Sriyono, Sriyono, Detak Prapanca, and Afif Nursidah. "Managerial Innovations in Structure Capital and Important Decisions in Determining the Profit Management of Plantation Company: Empirical Evidence in ASEAN Countries." In 2nd International Conference on Business and Management of Technology (ICONBMT 2020). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210510.037.

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Beauregard, Yannick, and Andrea Mah. "Assessing Soil Corrosivity for Buried Structural Steel." In 2020 13th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2020-9285.

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Abstract Corrosion of steel structures in soils has been a topic of industrial research for many decades. The research has shown that the corrosivity of a soil is highly variable and a function of numerous interconnected parameters including soil resistivity, moisture content and pH. Despite the complexity of the soil environment, methods to evaluate soil corrosivity, guidelines for corrosion control during the design phase and lifetime of a structure have been developed. By applying this understanding, an opportunity exists to optimize the corrosion protection and capital expenses for new projects associated with corrosion protection of buried structural steel components. For instance, for new projects, e.g., identifying regions of low corrosivity where coatings are not required could lead to cost savings without compromising the integrity of the structure. However, within the industry, there is no universally accepted method to guide such decisions. This paper is intended to address this issue by presenting a literature review and a case study on the topic. The literature review identifies the factors that influence the corrosion of buried steel structures, the range of corrosion rates observed on buried steel structures and quantitative and qualitative methods for assessing soil corrosivity. In the desktop case study, industry standards identified during the literature review (AASHTO R27-01, DIN50929-3:2018, ANSI/AWWA C105/A21.5 and Eurocode 3-5) are applied to applied to evaluate the soil corrosivity at three meter station sites in Alberta. The results are compared and recommendations for implementation are discussed. DIN 50929-3 stands out among the standards as it provides conservative estimates based on the most comprehensive data set and unlike the other standards, it assesses soil corrosivity both qualitatively and quantitatively.
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Wang, Congjian, Diego Mandelli, Shawn St Germain, Curtis Smith, David Morton, Ivilina Popova, and Stephen Hess. "Stochastic Optimization for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement." In ASME 2020 Power Conference collocated with the 2020 International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/power2020-16195.

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Abstract As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a risk-informed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods — such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies — and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decision-makers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., structures, systems, and components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.
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Cetiner, Sacit M., David L. Fugate, Roger A. Kisner, Michael D. Muhlheim, and Richard T. Wood. "Development of a Supervisory Control System Concept for Advanced Small Modular Reactors." In ASME 2014 Small Modular Reactors Symposium. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/smr2014-3403.

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Small modular reactors (SMRs) can provide the United States with a safe, sustainable, and carbon-neutral energy source. Because of their small size and, in many cases, simplified nuclear island configurations, it is expected that capital costs will be less for SMRs compared to that of large, Generation III+ light-water reactors. Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs), which use coolants other than water as the primary heat transport medium, introduce several passive safety concepts and controls features that further reduce the complexity of primary system designs by eliminating redundant components and systems. Under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), the Supervisory Control of Multi-Modular SMR Plants project was established to enable innovative control strategies and methods to supervise multi-unit plants, accommodate shared systems, identify opportunities to increase the level of automation, define economic metrics based on the relationship between control and staffing levels, and permit flexible co-generation operational regimes. This paper documents current findings from the Supervisory Control project. Specifically, it defines and documents strategies, functional elements, and an architectural structure for supervisory control of a representative generic AdvSMR plant. More specifically, this research advances the state-of-the art by incorporating decision making into the supervisory control system architectural layers through the introduction of tiered taxonomy of plant systems and subsystems. The proposed architecture has the features of planning and scheduling, analyzing plant status, diagnosing problems as they develop and predicting potential future problems, making decisions based on these features, and generating validated commands to lower control layers in the architecture.
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Öngül, Zehra. "Venetian Walls of Nicosia: Between Kyrenia Gate - Barbaro Bastion." In FORTMED2020 - Defensive Architecture of the Mediterranean. Valencia: Universitat Politàcnica de València, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/fortmed2020.2020.11417.

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Nicosia today has the characteristics of being the only divided city in Europe. By examining the inside of the walls, one observes that the structure of the city is determined by the circular plan of the walls that were constructed during the Venetian period. There are 11 bastions on the walls and three Venetian gates, namely Kyrenia Gate, Famagusta Gate and Paphos Gate, were originally designed to allow entrance to the city that is encircled by the walls. Nicosia continued to be the islands capital which has fallen under Ottoman rule in between 1571-1878. In the period of British occupation 1878-1960, as a result of the increasing population, the city of Nicosia overflew the walls and developed by spreading beyond the city walls and 8 new passages were opened. The organic fabric of the walled city, with the establishment of buffer zones after the peace operation of 1974, resulted in the division of the island that divided the capital city into two. In 1931, because of the increased vehicle needs through the north side, the walls around the Kyrenia Gate (Porta del Proveditore) were trimmed and designed as a single monumental building. Between Kyrenia Gate and Barbaro bastion wall height is lower than the existing. Public lavatory and 9 small shops were inserted. Sitting steps were designed on the walls and two stairs were constructed to reach these area. To give an access from the moat to the inner city there is a passage. In this context, identifying changes of the Kyrenia Gate-Barbaro bastion site, during this historic period, is the main goal of this study. Decisions with regard to these walls and observations to be made on right places to determine the changes are main focuses of the study.
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Reports on the topic "Capital structure decisions"

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Robb, Alicia, and David Robinson. The Capital Structure Decisions of New Firms. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w16272.

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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3

Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2020. Banco de la República de Colombia, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/rept-estab-fin.sem2.eng-2020.

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Abstract:
The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor
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