Academic literature on the topic 'Causalité indirecte'

The study investigates if there is a causality relationship between banking sector development and FDI inflows in Botswana. Though quite a number of authors have written on the subject, there appears to be no consensus on the directional causality between banking sector development and FDI inflows into the host country. At the moment, three dominant perspectives exist regarding the relationship between banking sector development and FDI inflows into the host country. The first perspective says that banking sector development attracts FDI inflows into the host country. The second perspective suggests that there is a positive feedback effect between banking sector development and FDI inflows whilst the third perspective maintains that there is no direct causality relationship between the two variables. The results from this study are consistent with the third perspective that says there is no direct causality relationship between banking sector development and FDI net inflows. This confirms that the long run relationship between banking sector development and FDI net inflows is an indirect one and the two set of variables affect each other indirectly through other factors in Botswana.

Le psychologue danois Edgar Rubin est bien connu pour ses expériences sur les rapports figure/fond. Son disciple Edgar Tranekjær Rasmussen a développé un métalangage phénoménologique applicable aux expériences sur la perception. Ce langage constitue aussi un outil d’intérêt général en psychologie et nous l’utilisons dans l’enseignement pour mieux comprendre les processus impliqués dans le Rorschach et résoudre les problèmes de la cotation. Le test du Rorschach nécessite de recueillir des informations sur l’expérience du sujet. Le recours au métalangage de Edgar Tranekjær Rasmussen nous aide dans ce processus. Le concept central de ce métalangage est celui de “phénomène.” Celui-ci désigne toute “chose” qui apparaît à une personne, y compris tous les aspects des autres phénomènes qui apparaissent, dont les relations entre phénomènes. Un phénomène apparaît à une personne à partir de traits médiateurs, ou formes apparentes qui changent selon le point de vue, tandis que le phénomène reste identique à lui-même. Un phénomène a un champ d’apparition dans la mesure où il apparaît en même temps que d’autres phénomènes, qui sont ses traits de champ. Parmi ces derniers, on distingue les traits propres, les traits étrangers et les traits périphériques. Lorsque l’on combine, d’une manière expérimentale, le phénomène A avec ses traits propres, le phénomène qui en résulte est identique à A. De même, lorsque l’on combine A avec ses traits étrangers, le phénomène qui en résulte est différent de A. Les traits périphériques sont indéterminés quant à leur qualité propre ou étrangère. Un phénomène comporte des traits déterminants. Pour qu’un phénomène garde son identité, certains traits déterminants doivent apparaître pour la personne dans différentes situations d’observation. Les traits propres du phénomène fonctionnent comme traits déterminants. Certains des traits étrangers peuvent aussi être des traits déterminants. Les traits périphériques peuvent changer, de telle sorte que le phénomène apparaît changé mais reste le même phénomène. Le concept d’identité tient donc une importance centrale dans le métalangage. Parfois, un phénomène apparaît comme un phénomène dont l’identité est encore à déterminer. Un phénomène peut apparaître d’une manière directe, immédiate, ou il peut apparaître d’une manière indirecte, médiate. Dans ce dernier cas, les traits médiateurs apparaissent d’une manière immédiate mais se réfèrent au phénomène qui est lui indirect. Il existe des phénomènes à différents niveaux. Au niveau supérieur, un phénomène possède tous les traits déterminants du niveau inférieur plus certains autres. Il est courant de confondre les différents niveaux de phénomènes lorsqu’ils portent le même nom. Un phénomène abstrait est formé à partir de certains traits déterminants d’un autre phénomène, mais pas de tous. La procédure d’identification intersubjective désigne ce qui se passe lorsque deux personnes utilisent le langage ou toute autre forme de communication (apparition anthropique) pour s’assurer que le phénomène qui leur apparaît est le même. Lorsqu’ils ont quelque doute, ils se réfèrent aux traits déterminants du phénomène, et s’ils doutent encore de ceux-ci, le processus continue jusqu’à ce qu’ils atteignent les phénomènes qui fonctionnent comme des bases de référence qui leur apparaissent à tous les deux comme identiques. Une relation peut apparaître comme un phénomène. Elle peut avoir comme champ d’apparition certains processus et quelques autres phénomènes qui participent à la relation. A l’inverse, le trait d’un phénomène peut être d’avoir une certaine relation avec d’autres phénomènes. Les phases de réponse et d’enquête au Rorschach sont caractérisées par ce métalangage. La nature même du Rorschach suscite beaucoup de phénomènes dont l’identité est encore à déterminer. Les caractéristiques des taches d’encre poussent le sujet à utiliser une identité de phénomène de manière moins stricte que ce qu’ils feraient dans la vie de tous les jours. Cela est dû au fait que les phénomènes apparaissant comme des réponses au test possèdent souvent beaucoup de traits périphériques, qui ne fonctionnent pas comme des traits déterminants mais qui permettent que les phénomènes apparaissent comme changés en comparaison avec leur apparence habituelle. Alors que, dans la phase de réponse, les phénomènes apparaissent souvent comme immédiats, dans la phase d’enquête ils apparaissent de manière plus indirecte, médiatisée par leurs formes d’apparition. A l’enquête, il va être important de formuler les traits déterminants des phénomènes qui ont apparus au sujet dans la phase de réponse de telle sorte que les phénomènes conservent l’identité et la forme d’apparition qu’ils avaient au départ. La procédure d’identification intersubjective peut être utile pour recueillir l’information pertinente. Le métalangage phénoménologique est utile pour éclairer les problèmes de détermination des localisations et pour distinguer entre une qualité de développement ordinaire ou de synthèse. Nous discutons dans cet article de la relation entre déterminants au Rorschach et le concept de “traits déterminants” propre au métalangage. Nous évoquons aussi le problème du type de causalité impliqué dans le concept de déterminant au Rorschach, c’est-à-dire ce qui “détermine” la réponse. Nous soulignons l’importance de recourir à l’équivalence phénoménologique dans la procédure d’extrapolation de la qualité formelle. Nous présentons les cotations spéciales critiques comme les produits d’une confusion entre traits propres et étrangers. Nous suggérons que différentes formes d’apparition des réponses dotées de cotations spéciales pourraient être interprétées de manières différentes. Il serait utile de poursuivre les recherches dans ce domaine, dans la mesure où la phase d’enquête a été peu étudiée. Quelques thèmes de recherche sont avancés en guise de conclusion.

This study explores the Granger causal relationship between return and volume in the KOSPI200 spot and option markets for the period from December 13. 2002 to December 9. 2004. using minute-by-minute data. Specifically, we examine the lead-lag relationship among OPtion volume, option return, cash volume, and cash return to determine whether option volume and return impact cash return. Our results show that option volume has no direct impact on cash return as cash return unilaterally leads option volume‘ While option volume impacts cash volume. cash return unilaterally leads cash volume. implying no indirect impact of option volume on cash return. However, there is evidence that option return impacts cash return directly, given a bilateral causality between option return and casll return. Option return also impacts cash volume, but again cash volume has no impact on cash return. meaning no indirect impact of option return on cash return. Our findings were generally robust across days of the week and different maturities. Finally, we analyzed lead-lag relationship within the option market. and found a bilateral causality between option volume and option return. This implies that option volume may impact cash return indirectly via option return.

Granger causality (G-causality) has emerged as a useful tool to investigate the influence that one system can exert over another system, but challenges remain when applying it to biological data. Specifically, it is not clear if G-causality can distinguish between direct and indirect influences. In this study time domain G-causality connectivity analysis was performed on simulated electroencephalographic cerebral signals. Conditional multivariate autoregressive model was applied to 19 virtual time series (nodes) to identify the effects of direct and indirect links while varying one of the following variables: the length of the time series, the lags between interacting nodes, the connection strength of the links, and the noise. Simulated data revealed that weak indirect influences are not identified by Gcausality analysis when applied on covariance stationary, non-correlated electrophysiological time series.

In this paper I will analyze two subordinate clauses which can be frequently found within free indirect reported speech (FIRS, in the paper DIL): relative and causal clauses. After a short illustration of FIRS I will examine the two clauses with an analysis of the passages in FIRS from Italian narrative literature of the XIX century (especially Manzoni and Verga). A relative or a causal clause can recur within a FIRS passage, can open it or can constitute on its own a FIRS passage becoming, respectively, free indirect relative clause (FIRC, in the paper RIL) and free indirect causal clause (FICC, in the paper CIL). FIRC and FICC share two peculiarities: a) They have a rhematic function; b) They are cases of “hypotactizated parataxis” (FIRC and FICC, as subordinate clauses, connect a FIRS passage to the diegesis without the break of the normal FIRS, paratactically juxtaposed to the narratum). For this last peculiarity FIRC and FICC represented two important stylistic means for the novelists of the Realism to attain the impersonality of the author in the novel through a close fusion between the voice of the author and the voice of the characters.

L'evolution du contexte concurrentiel a consacre le role determinant des produits nouveaux dans la competitivite, la croissance et la survie des entreprises. La mise en Ŭvre d'une strategie d'innovation la plus a meme de favoriser le succes des nouveaux produits commercialises apparait comme un enjeu majeur dans la competition a laquelle se livrent les firmes. La proposition centrale de cette these est que l'influence des elements qui composent la strategie d'innovation sur la performance d'un nouveau produit se fait, au moins partiellement, par l'intermediaire d'un effet sur le comportement de reaction des concurrents. L'objectif de la recherche est d'identifier l'influence des variables de la strategie d'innovation sur les caracteristiques de la reaction concurrentielle ainsi que l'impact des caracteristiques de cette reaction sur la performance du nouveau produit. Pour ce faire, a partir de la litterature, des hypotheses ont ete formulees sur la nature des relations de causalite entre les trois categories de variables en jeu : les variables representant la strategie d'innovation, les caracteristiques de la reaction du principal concurrent et la performance d'un nouveau produit. Le modele causal ainsi etabli et les hypotheses qui le composent ont ete testes sur un echantillon de 161 nouveaux produits lances recemment dans dix secteurs d'activites. Les donnees, recueillies par voie de questionnaires adresses aux entreprises, ont ete analysees au moyen de l'approche pls (partial least square). Les resultats obtenus confirment la proposition initiale : la strategie d'innovation menee explique la performance d'un nouveau produit via, en partie, son influence sur la reaction du principal concurrent. Ils montrent que les innovateurs ont la possibilite d'orienter la reaction de leur principal concurrent et d'accroitre ainsi la performance d'un lancement en jouant sur differentes caracteristiques du nouveau produit, de son developpement et de son lancement.

Le retentissement psychologique d’événements sources de responsabilité, quels qu’ils soient – acte de terrorisme, perte d’un être cher, harcèlement moral… – est spécifique du fait de ses caractères protéiforme et invisible. Tout d’abord, le premier d’entre eux tient au fait qu’en matière psychologique tant les atteintes que les souffrances en résultant sont diverses. Ainsi, d’un point de vue lésionnel, certains événements vont s’avérer plus traumatisants que d’autres, principalement ceux au cours desquels le sujet a été confronté à sa propre mort. Concernant la souffrance, un sujet peut tout aussi bien souffrir émotionnellement d’une altération de sa propre intégrité – par exemple physique avec le diagnostic d’une pathologie grave – que d’un tort affectant celle d’un proche (e.g. décès, handicap). Un retentissement qualifié d’invisible ensuite, puisqu’il apparaît bien plus aisé d’identifier une atteinte à l’intégrité physique qu’une atteinte à l’intégrité psychique. De plus, certaines atteintes psychologiques sont totalement insaisissables en raison de leur caractère éminemment diffus. L’objet de cette démonstration est donc de savoir comment le droit de la responsabilité civile va appréhender la victime de ce retentissement psychologique. Sa prise en charge ne pourra être que particulière du fait de l’interaction inévitable entre les sphères juridique et psychologique.Afin de le découvrir sera proposée, dans un premier temps, une conceptualisation de la victime psychologique se fondant sur la réalité psychopathologique. Deux grandes distinctions nourrissent cette réflexion. L’une est de nature juridique ; il s’agit de la distinction du dommage et du préjudice. L’autre est d’origine psychopathologique ; elle oppose le choc émotionnel au traumatisme psychique. Leur entrecroisement permettra d’élaborer différents cas de manifestation de la souffrance psychologique et de dessiner les contours de la qualité de victime. Dans un second temps, au titre de l’indemnisation de la victime psychologique, tant l’appréciation que l’évaluation de ses préjudices seront examinées. Les répercussions du traumatisme psychique voire du choc émotionnel vont parfois être si importantes que l’indemnisation ne pourra se cantonner à la seule souffrance éprouvée. Des conséquences de nature différente, par exemple patrimoniales, devront être prises en considération. À cette fin, une typologie des préjudices de la victime sous analyse mérite d’être mise en place. Des règles d’indemnisation distinctes seront érigées en fonction du préjudice subi. Un préjudice présumé, notamment à partir d’un dommage, ne pourra logiquement être compensé de la même façon que des préjudices non présumables, c’est-à-dire soumis à expertise. En somme, le système d’indemnisation à instaurer se devra d’être en phase avec le système de révélation de la souffrance qui aura été précédemment établi.Ainsi, cette étude se propose de construire un réel statut fondateur de la victime psychologique. Une fois cette notion cardinale intégralement conceptualisée, un régime d’indemnisation s’en inférant sera rationnellement avancé
The psychological impact of the events, which are the source of responsibility, be they acts of terrorism, loss of a loved one, psychological harassment, is specific to characteristics both protean and invisible. The first among them is due to the fact that in psychological matter injuries and the resulting suffering are both varied. As such, from the injury point of view, certain events will prove to be more traumatizing than others. Principally those during which the subject has been faced with his own death. Concerning suffering, a subject can as well emotionally suffer a change in his own integrity – for example the physical one with a diagnosis of a serious illness – that of a sort damage which affects that of a loved one (e.g. death or handicap). Then, the impact is considered invisible. It appears much more simple indeed, to identify harm to physical integrity as a harm to psychic integrity. More so, certain psychological harms are totally imperceptible by reason of their eminently diffuse characteristic. The object of this demonstration is therefore to know how civil liability law will comprehend the victim of such a psychological impact. Its comprehension will be particular given the inevitable interaction between the judicial and psychological spheres.In order to better understand this, we will first propose a conceptualization of the psychological victim that blends into psychopathological reality. Two major distinctions feed this thought. One is legal nature, which relates to the distinction between prejudice and harm. The other is psychopathological in nature which opposes emotional shock and psychic trauma. Their intertwining allows us to elaborate different cases of manifestation of psychological suffering and define the contours of the qualities of the victim. Secondly, regarding compensation for a psychological victim, both the appreciation and the evaluation of these prejudices will be examined. The repercussions of psychic trauma, or even emotional shock can sometimes be so grave that compensation cannot restrict itself only to the experienced suffering. Consequences of different natures, for example patrimonial ones, must be taken into consideration. To this end, a division of the prejudices of the psychological victim should be put in place. Distinct rules of compensation will be established based on the prejudice endured. A prejudice presumed, originating notably from a harm, cannot logically be compensated in the same fashion as non-presumable prejudices that require a forensic assessment. In short, the system of compensation must be in phase with the system of disclosure of suffering that has been previously established. As a result, this study proposes to construct a true founding status of a psychological victim. Once this principal notion has been completely conceptualized, we can use it to create a rational compensation scheme

Η παρούσα διατριβή ασχολείται με δύο ιδιαιτέρως σημαντικά και διαχρονικά επίκαιρα ζητήματα στην ανάλυση χρονολογικών σειρών, τα οποία εντάσσονται, υπό ευρεία έννοια, στο πεδίο της Μακροοικονομετρίας. Ειδικότερα, μελετώνται θέματα και μεθοδολογίες ή τεχνικές ιδιαίτερα χρήσιμες για εκείνους τους ερευνητές, οι οποίοι επικεντρώνονται στην ανάλυση της συμπεριφοράς των συναθροιστικών (aggregate) μεγεθών της οικονομίας, βασιζόμενοι στη χρήση δεδομένων χρονοσειρών ή πιο απλά χρονοσειρές (time series). Το πρώτο ζήτημα αφορά στη μελέτη της δυναμικής αλληλεξάρτησης ανάμεσα σε μακροοικονομικές μεταβλητές κάτω από την υιοθέτηση ενός πολλαπλού πλαισίου ανάλυσης χρονοσειρών. Το ενδιαφέρον εστιάζεται κυρίως στην γενικευμένη ή εκτεταμένη έννοια της αιτιότητας κατά Granger, δηλαδή στην επέκταση της τυπικής έννοιας της αιτιότητας κατά Granger σε μεγαλύτερους του ενός ή σε πολλαπλούς ορίζοντες πρόβλεψης. Το δεύτερο ζήτημα αφορά στην παρουσία μη-γραμμικών χαρακτηριστικών σε μακροοικονομικές χρονοσειρές, καθώς και την υποδειγματοποίηση της μη-γραμμικότητας με τη χρήση μη-γραμμικών οικονομετρικών μοντέλων. Επικεντρώνεται δε ιδιαίτερα στον έλεγχο μοναδιαίας ρίζας κάτω από την εναλλακτική υπόθεση της στασιμότητας γύρω από μη-γραμμικές τάσεις της μορφής τάσεων ομαλής μετάβασης (smooth transition trends) στις μακροοικονομικές χρονοσειρές. Ουσιαστικά, η διατριβή διακρίνεται σε δύο κεφάλαια. Στο Κεφάλαιο 1 παρουσιάζεται η τυπική έννοια της αιτιότητας κατά Granger, καθώς και η γενικευμένη ή εκτεταμένη έννοια της αιτιότητας ή η αιτιότητα σε πολλαπλούς ορίζοντες (multi-horizon causality), στο πλαίσιο των διανυσματικών αυτοπαλίνδρομων υποδειγμάτων (VAR). Η τυπική έννοια της αιτιότητας κατά Granger περιορίζεται στη βελτίωση της προβλεψιμότητας σε ορίζοντα πρόβλεψης μίας περιόδου (one-step ahead), ενώ λαμβάνει υπ'όψιν μόνο τις άμεσες ροές πληροφόρησης μεταξύ των μεταβλητών ενδιαφέροντος (direct causality). Ωστόσο, σε υποδείγματα VAR με περισσότερες από δύο μεταβλητές η τυπική έννοια της αιτιότητας μπορεί να επεκταθεί με την μελέτη της βελτίωσης της προβλεψιμότητας σε μεγαλύτερους του ενός ορίζοντες πρόβλεψης. Σε μία περίπτωση όπως η τελευταία, πλην της άμεσης αιτιότητας, δύνανται να μελετηθούν και οι έμμεσες σχέσεις αιτιότητας (indirect causality) που ενδέχεται να προκύψουν μέσω των πρόσθετων μεταβλητών του συστήματος. Το θεωρητικό πλαίσιο της γενικευμένης έννοιας της αιτιότητας που παρουσιάζει η παρούσα διατριβή έχει αναπτυχθεί από τους Dufour and Renault (1998). Παράλληλα, δίνεται ιδιαίτερη βαρύτητα σε δύο πρόσφατες μεθόδους στατιστικής επαγωγής αιτιωδών σχέσεων κατά Granger σε πολλαπλούς ορίζοντες, οι οποίες παρέχουν πρόσθετη πληροφόρηση σχετικά με τη δυναμική αλληλεξάρτηση οικονομικών χρονοσειρών, και πιο συγκεκριμένα σχετικά με τον άμεσο ή έμμεσο χαρακτήρα των αιτιωδών σχέσεων, το διαχωρισμό μεταξύ βραχυχρόνιας και μακροχρόνιας (μη)-αιτιότητας, καθώς και τις πιθανές χρονικές υστερήσεις της αιτιότητας. Τέλος, στα πλαίσια του Κεφαλαίου 1, ερευνάται η δυνατότητα εφαρμογής των μεθόδων αυτών μέσω εμπειρικών εφαρμογών πάνω σε δύο διαχρονικά ζητήματα αιτιωδών σχέσεων ανάμεσα σε οικονομικές μεταβλητές. Στο Κεφάλαιο 2 παρουσιάζονται υποδείγματα ομαλής μετάβασης, καθώς και έλεγχοι μοναδιαίας ρίζας οι οποίοι επιτρέπουν την στασιμότητα γύρω από ομαλές ή βαθμιαίες μεταβάσεις κάτω από την εναλλακτική υπόθεση. Κύριο χαρακτηριστικό των υποδειγμάτων ομαλής μετάβασης είναι η παρουσία μη-γραμμικών τάσεων στη διαχρονική εξέλιξη των χρονοσειρών. Κεντρικό ρόλο στα υποδείγματα αυτά κατέχουν οι διαρθρωτικές μεταβολές (structural changes) στην προσδιοριστική τάση, οι οποίες, δεδομένου ότι αντιπροσωπεύουν μεταβολές της συναθροιστικής συμπεριφοράς, υποδειγματοποιούνται με τη χρήση ενός προσδιοριστικού στοιχείου το οποίο επιτρέπει την βαθμιαία αντί της στιγμιαίας προσαρμογής. Οι έλεγχοι μοναδιαίας ρίζας, οι οποίοι επιτρέπουν περισσότερη ευελιξία στην συνάρτηση της τάσης σε σχέση με την γραμμική εξειδίκευση της προσδιοριστικής τάσης που χρησιμοποιούν οι τυπικοί έλεγχοι μοναδιαίας ρίζας, αποτελούν το επίκεντρο μελέτης του Κεφαλαίου 2 της διατριβής. Η αναγκαιότητα υιοθέτησης πρόσθετων ελέγχων μοναδιαίας ρίζας, όπως οι έλεγχοι μοναδιαίας ρίζας οι οποίοι επιτρέπουν στασιμότητα γύρω από ομαλές μεταβάσεις κάτω από την εναλλακτική υπόθεση, ισχυροποιείται από τα αποτελέσματα της εφαρμογής των ελέγχων αυτών σε ένα σύνολο οικονομικών χρονοσειρών.
This thesis discusses two central research topics in applied time series econometrics that generally belong in the field of Macroeconometrics. In particular, we investigate issues and methods which are of interest to those researchers who want to analyze economic problems or economic aggregates by means of time series data. The first topic deals with the dynamic interrelationships between sets of theory related variables in a multiple time series context. Research interest is primarily focused on the generalized or extended notion of Granger causality, that is the extension of the standard Granger causality concept to higher forecast horizons. The second topic deals with nonlinear behavior of macroeconomic time series, as well as the modelling of nonlinearities in economic time series using nonlinear econometric models. Specific attention is paid to unit root tests that allow stationarity around nonlinear trends in the form of smooth transitions under the alternative. The dissertation consists of two chapters. The first chapter presents the standard concept of Granger causality, along with the generalized or extended notion of causality, also known as multiple-horizon causality, in the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. The standard notion of Granger causality restricts prediction improvement to a forecast horizon of one period, while it considers only direct flows of information between the variables of interest. However, in VAR models with more than two variables, the concept of standard Granger causality can be extended by studying prediction improvement at forecast horizons greater than one. If this is the case, then, except for direct causality, indirect flows of information might be revealed through the additional variables of the system. The theoretical framework of the extended concept of causality which is presented in the present dissertation has been developed by Dufour and Renault (1998). In addition, special attention is paid to two recent methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons which can provide further information on the dynamic interaction of time series, and more specifically on the direct or indirect nature of causal effects, the distinction between short-run and long-run (non)-causality, as wells as the possibility of causal delays. Finally, the potential implementation of these methods is examined through empirical applications on causality relations among different sets of economic variables. Chapter 2 presents smooth transition (STR) trend models, as well as unit root tests that allow stationarity around smooth transitions under the alternative. Smooth transition regression models presume the presence of nonlinear trends in the long-run evolution of time series. A key feature of these models is the presence of structural changes in the deterministic trend which, given that they represent changes in aggregate behavior (economic aggregates), are modelled through a deterministic component that permits gradual rather than instantaneous adjustment between regimes. Unit root tests that permit a more versatile trend function in the unit root procedure, rather than the standard linear trends, are the main concern of Chapter 2. The necessity of employing additional unit root tests, such as unit root tests that allow stationarity around smooth transitions under the alternative, becomes evident through the unit root test results that are observed in an application in a set of economic time series.

This chapter extends the principles of bivariate analysis to multivariate analysis, which takes into account more than one independent variable and the dependent variable. With multivariate analysis, it is possible to investigate the impact of multiple factors on a dependent variable of interest, and to compare the explanatory power of rival hypotheses. Multivariate analysis can also be used to develop and test multi-causal explanations of political phenomena. After providing an overview of the principles of multivariate analysis, and the different types of analytical question to which they can be applied, the chapter shows how multivariate analysis is carried out for statistical control purposes. More specifically, it explains the use of OLS regression and logistic regression, the latter of which builds on cross-tabulation, to carry out multivariate analysis. It also discusses the use of multivariate analysis to debunk spurious relationships and to illustrate indirect causality.

The subject-specific data from either an observational or experimental study consist of a string of numbers. These numbers represent a series of empirical measurements. Calculations are performed on these strings and causal inferences are drawn. For example, an investigator might conclude that the analysis provides strong evidence for ‘‘both an indirect effect of cigarette smoking on coronary artery disease through its effect on blood pressure and a direct effect not mediated by blood pressure.’’ The nature of the relationship between the sentence expressing these causal conclusions and the statistical computer calculations performed on the strings of numbers has been obscure. Since the computer algorithms are well-defined mathematical objects, it is crucial to provide formal causal models for the English sentences expressing the investigator’s causal inferences. In this chapter we restrict ourselves to causal models that can be represented by a directed acyclic graph. There are two common approaches to the construction of causal models. The first approach posits unobserved fixed ‘potential’ or ‘counterfactual’ outcomes for each unit under different possible joint treatments or exposures. The second approach posits relationships between the population distribution of outcomes under experimental interventions (with full compliance) to the set of (conditional) distributions that would be observed under passive observation (i.e., from observational data). We will refer to the former as ‘counterfactual’ causal models and the latter as ‘agnostic’ causal models (Spirtes, Glymour, & Scheines, 1993) as the second approach is agnostic as to whether unit-specific counterfactual outcomes exist, be they fixed or stochastic. The primary difference between the two approaches is ontological: The counterfactual approach assumes that counterfactual variables exist, while the agnostic approach does not require this. In fact, the counterfactual theory logically subsumes the agnostic theory in the sense that the counterfactual approach is logically an extension of the latter approach. In particular, for a given graph the causal contrasts (i.e. parameters) that are well-defined under the agnostic approach are also well-defined under the counterfactual approach.

This chapter extends the principles of bivariate analysis to multivariate analysis, which takes into account more than one independent variable and the dependent variable. With multivariate analysis, it is possible to investigate the impact of multiple factors on a dependent variable of interest, and to compare the explanatory power of rival hypotheses. Multivariate analysis can also be used to develop and test multi-causal explanations of political phenomena. After providing an overview of the principles of multivariate analysis, and the different types of analytical question to which they can be applied, the chapter shows how multivariate analysis is carried out for statistical control purposes. More specifically, it explains the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and logistic regression, the latter of which builds on cross-tabulation, to carry out multivariate analysis. It also discusses the use of multivariate analysis to debunk spurious relationships and to illustrate indirect causality.

This chapter examines the resolution of the third antinomy. Kant argues that the thesis and antithesis are (roughly speaking) sub-contraries rather than contradictories. However, the sense in which he maintains that the thesis and antithesis ‘can both be true’ is delicate. He holds that the truth of neither claim excludes the truth of the other; but this is compatible with necessary falsehood of the thesis, which affirms the existence of human freedom. Importantly, Kant does not take himself to show on theoretical grounds that freedom is even logically possible. The chapter also discusses: Kant’s conceptions of intelligible causality and of empirical and intelligible character; moral responsibility; moral growth; the rationality of blame; Kant’s criticisms of Leibniz’s compatibilism; the third antinomy as an indirect argument for Transcendental Idealism; and the first-Critique’s version of a moral argument for freedom. Kant emerges as a ‘soft determinist’ of a highly unusual stripe.

In this chapter, we evoke first the ubiquity and the importance of the so-called ‘narrative’ information, showing that the usual ontological tools are unable to offer complete and reliable solutions for representing and exploiting this type of information. We then supply some details about NKRL (Narrative Knowledge Representation Language), a fully implemented knowledge representation and inferencing environment especially created for an ‘intelligent’ exploitation of narrative knowledge. The main innovation of NKRL consists in associating with the traditional ontologies of concepts an ‘ontology of events’, in other words, a new sort of hierarchical organization where the nodes correspond to n-ary structures representing formally generic classes of elementary events like ‘move a physical object’, ‘be present in a place’, or ‘send/receive a message’. More complex, second order tools based on the ‘reification’ principle allow one to encode the ‘connectivity phenomena’ like causality, goal, indirect speech, coordination, and subordination that, in narrative information, link together ‘elementary events’. The chapter includes a description of the inference techniques proper to NKRL, and some information about the last developments of this language.

This chapter extends the authors' previous research work in which an examination of causality was conducted between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP), and the environment (CO2 emissions and energy consumption [EC]) in the Indian context. Two more important variables (i.e., trade openness and technology gap) were also added. The chapter further examines the effects of information and communication technology (ICT) trade on both GDP and the environment of India. The results of previous model show that FDI is neither causing GDP nor is it bridging the technology gap. The results also indicate the existence of pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) in India as FDI is causing both CO2 and EC. Also, FDI is, though not causing the GDP directly, doing so indirectly through CO2 validating the existence of PHH. FDI is causing trade openness in India, but that openness is again causing more FDI, which is doing no good for India. The results of ICT trade model indicate that both GDP and ICT exports cause CO2 in India. Also, both the GDP and ICT exports are consuming energy in India.

Fossils provide some of the most detailed sources of information for environmental reconstruction available to the paleolimnologist. The use of lacustrine fossils to infer paleoenvironmental conditions is fundamentally based on inferences derived from modern correlations between the distribution of organisms and environmental variables, coupled with an understanding of taphonomy, the study of the fossilization process. No single group of organisms provides a comprehensive picture of lake ecosystems or environmental change, so it is always desirable to gather paleoecological records from multiple clades and habitats in a paleolimnological study. Analysis of multiple clades provides a means of establishing or testing ecological hypotheses that may not be possible from the study of one group alone. For example, many limnological processes affect the plankton, littoral organisms, and benthos in predictable sequences, and with predictable intensities. The most comprehensive study of fossil data and data analysis will be meaningless if the fossils studied are misidentified. A good taxonomic framework is an essential element of paleoecological studies. Accurate identification of described species, and the curation of voucher specimens, photographs, and other descriptive materials of undescribed species is important, to insure the quality of a paleolimnologist’s ongoing work, and to avoid future errors based on previously misidentified fossil specimens. Using fossils to interpret lacustrine paleoenvironments requires not only an understanding of modern organism distributions, but also an understanding of four additional factors we did not consider in chapter 5: (1) ecological causality and scale, (2) taphonomy and time-averaging, (3) historical contingency, and (4) evolutionary processes. One of the most common uses of fossil data in lakes is to try and reconstruct changes in some physical or biological forcing process from changes in abundance or morphology of the fossil organisms affected by the process. We might be interested in reconstructing changes in nutrient flux to the lake, based on changes in the relative abundances of some fossil animals. However, these animals actually responded to nutrient load only indirectly, through the effect of nutrient load on autotrophs and/or organic detritus. Now suppose that our ultimate objective is not really to understand productivity changes or nutrients, so much as to understand climate changes that may be driving productivity changes.

Planned and/or unplanned developments in the setting, which are directly or indirectly in connection to a certain profession or are of multidisciplinary character, have impact on initiation and steering of the course and direction of research campaigns of “vigilant” professional analysts and/or researchers of a profession, i.e. professions. It was the occurrence of the “vicious infection - SARS CoV 2” at the territory of Planet Earth which also initiated the subject professional research in the area of applied thermal engineering within two partial units which may be in interaction with the infection, i.e. which may also be in causal connection: “applied thermal engineering in building stock (only business and residential buildings)”- “sophisticated thermotechnical system integrated in a business or residential building”- “pathogenic microorganisms”. When general, professional and/or scientific public was faced with occurrence of plentitude of information, misinformation, interpretations, misconceptions, and/or ambiguities in the “black box of SARS CoV 2 pandemic”, the subject research was initiated in an analytical and principled manner with application of methods of analysis based on the “logic of rational action” in the given area. The aspects of the approach are adapted to the subject of the research, imperatively and consecutively imposed by the need for analysis and evaluation of causality between the given partial units and pathogenic microorganisms. In relation to the accepted partial units in the stage of utilization of the existing business or residential building for the dedicated purpose, the findings point that, inter alia, if such buildings were constructed as a result of conscientious, competent, responsible, and highly professional work of multidisciplinary builders and if they comprise adequate integrated sophisticated thermotechnical systems which have systematic, functional, and operating capability and which achieve satisfactory target function of the system, they do not “generate” pathogenic microorganisms, do not participate in their transfer, do not intensify their pathogenic properties and activity, do not contribute to occurrence of pandemics, do not jeopardize human health, and do not cause their mortality, etc. but are basically also not intended to “destroy” pathogenic microorganisms reaching the system from the outside and/or treated limited closed spaced within the building frequented by people off their working activities and/or pursuing their working activities, individually or in groups. Depending on the type of the current sophisticated thermotechnical system in the building, if necessary, it is possible to perform interventions aimed at reconstruction so as to “immunize” the system in a manner which may be recognized and designed by professional, competent, experienced, and dedicated thermal engineers. It needs to be noted that the subject exploration is conducted for deontological reasons, with the aim to promote theory and practice in the given.

Planned and/or unplanned developments in the setting, which are directly or indirectly in connection to a certain profession or are of multidisciplinary character, have impact on initiation and steering of the course and direction of research campaigns of “vigilant” professional analysts and/or researchers of a profession, i.e. professions. It was the occurrence of the “vicious infection - SARS CoV 2” at the territory of Planet Earth which also initiated the subject professional research in the area of applied thermal engineering within two partial units which may be in interaction with the infection, i.e. which may also be in causal connection: “applied thermal engineering in building stock (only business and residential buildings)”- “sophisticated thermotechnical system integrated in a business or residential building”- “pathogenic microorganisms”. When general, professional and/or scientific public was faced with occurrence of plentitude of information, misinformation, interpretations, misconceptions, and/or ambiguities in the “black box of SARS CoV 2 pandemic”, the subject research was initiated in an analytical and principled manner with application of methods of analysis based on the “logic of rational action” in the given area. The aspects of the approach are adapted to the subject of the research, imperatively and consecutively imposed by the need for analysis and evaluation of causality between the given partial units and pathogenic microorganisms. In relation to the accepted partial units in the stage of utilization of the existing business or residential building for the dedicated purpose, the findings point that, inter alia, if such buildings were constructed as a result of conscientious, competent, responsible, and highly professional work of multidisciplinary builders and if they comprise adequate integrated sophisticated thermotechnical systems which have systematic, functional, and operating capability and which achieve satisfactory target function of the system, they do not “generate” pathogenic microorganisms, do not participate in their transfer, do not intensify their pathogenic properties and activity, do not contribute to occurrence of pandemics, do not jeopardize human health, and do not cause their mortality, etc. but are basically also not intended to “destroy” pathogenic microorganisms reaching the system from the outside and/or treated limited closed spaced within the building frequented by people off their working activities and/or pursuing their working activities, individually or in groups. Depending on the type of the current sophisticated thermotechnical system in the building, if necessary, it is possible to perform interventions aimed at reconstruction so as to “immunize” the system in a manner which may be recognized and designed by professional, competent, experienced, and dedicated thermal engineers. It needs to be noted that the subject exploration is conducted for deontological reasons, with the aim to promote theory and practice in the given.